Reddit Posts
Me going into earnings week with $5000 in SMCI, MSFT, & AMD calls
KitKat Canada AI Ad? I’m Bullish on NVDA, AMD, & SMCI
What happens to options expired ITM AH but not enough cash in margin account?
Options expired ITM but not enough cash in margin account
I feel like quitting stocks selling Nvdia and SMCI too early
$SMCI Options expired ITM but not enough cash in account
$SMCI Options expired ITM but not enough cash in account
Next plays after the 200% gain in SMCI calls.
Pssst….. $SMCI, UNDERVALUED AI PLAY. Going up huge tomorrow!! Calling it now
$20k SMCI calls filled right before market close today. Hoping it holds the gains tomorrow morning.
SMCI IV up, premium up. Looks good to sell a CPS or CSP.
$610 -> $15,000. Happy Holidays WSB.
Super Micro Computer $SMCI Earnings Release - Thriving AI and cloud computing
Super Micro Computer $SMCI Earnings Release - Thriving AI and cloud computing
This AI stock jumped 163% this year, and Wall Street thinks it can rise another 50%. is that realistic?
SMCI is what everybody wishes they were investing in when they buy NVDA
Roughly $60,000 SOFI and SMCI Gainz in Two Weeks
Class action lawsuits (Super Micro Computer Inc - SMCI) and mutual funds
Is it a good time to buy SMCI ? For a long term holding?
Mentions
they define it as at least 3 of these occurring within 90 days - NVDA down 50% from ATH, SOXX down 40% from ATH, OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy, OpenAI acquired, H100 rentals below $1.00/hr for 5 consecutive days, and/or one supplier (TSM/ASML/AVGO/ANET/SMCI) down 50% from ATH
Any chance for SMCI to end green today?
I got killed on SMCI too. But it'll be back. Just keep holding.
Guys Merry Christmas. Not joking, isn’t SMCI at these prices a christmas gift?
As in YTD change only, starting 1/1 I’d say: BULL HIMS SMCI NFLX gap fill META gap fill maybe UNH maybe ARM
Shorting SMCI to the abyss. Such a trash stock
Is full port SMCI calls worth it?
Daily FUCK SMCI can't wait for my puts to go ITM
SMCI is generational wealth opportunity
FUCK SMCI down when I bought the stock, now it's up after I bought puts...
I would seriously look at some biotechnology stocks if you wanted a moon shot. Viking Theraputics. There are many out there and if you have time to do research you can find a few promising ones. However, bio tech can burn you hard if tou pick wrong. I like AMD this year. If SMCI has a good earnings could double or easily tripple this next year alone in 2026.
Thoughts on $SMCI right now?
I’ve traded RKLB, ORCL, SMCI, CRWV, TSLA, CVNA. I never hold any of these companies more than a day. Just not comfortable holding these stocks I actually hold these companies only for a few hours. There are dumb people how probably make way more than me but I sleep fine. I’m not sure when reality will hit it’s not an if but a when and a lot of people are going to get wiped out.
I would highly recommend downloading the prospero ai app. It’s free, and I use it as another tool to choose stocks. I prefer to filter by upside breakout and see what institutions believe has the best chance to go higher . You can use it based on their ST and LT bulls , but I prefer the upside breakout since the backtest results show that stocks with an upside breakout above 80 have an 80% chance of beating the SP500. It’s how I’ve gotten into HOOD, META (when it was at $300), and SMCI (from 250 to 850).
SMCI primed for a rebound. Gap filled at $32.40 oversold on the RSI short interest 18% I already made $264k buying calls on this in Feb and similar vibes right now. 9,000 shares long for a swing to $50 / $60 by end January
Which height? Because it's done this... 2 dozen times since I bought my first 2,000 shares in 2019. Hit 149, pulled back to 90s and then sat around the 120s for a while. Prior to that, it'd hit 145, pulled back to 120-130 for a while...and the carry trade. Prior to this last split, hit 974 and then pulled back to 800-840 and then pulled back to 720 when SMCI just didn't reported early earnings preview. I regret selling good companies when they're still in a massive growth phase. I'm about 3M from "it's height." Another 1M with AVGO. Since I don't need the money in the following weeks, months or even years... doesn't bother me at all. Also, you're using the benefit of the hindsight and basically saying, "I wished I'd timed the market perfectly." Everyone does. That's why it's wiser to just invest and hold while the fundamentals are good(and getting better) than jump in and out.
Any thoughts on the individual stocks in my portfolio? I’ve got (in order of position size) UNH GOOG OSCR HIMS SMCI CRWV UBER Haven’t been following too much lately
The RAM and storage shortage started 1 yr ago when hyperscalers and mega cap companies announced accelerated spending in AI data centers. MICRON themselves stated that 2026 was sold out 3Q ago. 2027 is soon to be sold out. Dell/HPE/SMCI and tons of others in Asia will pass on the cost to the mega cap companies, and those guys can afford it. Semis like Nvida, Broadcom and AMD has also stated that the increase in HBM will be passed on in full.
I'm a dip buyer/swing trader myself and made a good amount of money (at least what I consider a good amount for me) but in reality if I would've just kept and held SMCI, NVDA, META, QQQ from 2022 I'd have 4-5X my profits that's sitting in my account.
They are essentially a high-end "Geek Squad" for data centers in Asia. It doesn't even compare to $SMCI. Sounds like a pump and dump from all this hype.
What exactly does it sell? $SMCI is another one that sells cooling racks.
TPL, DECK, SMCI, COIN, TTD, XYZ, etc All way down since SP500 added
Have u seen stocks like SMCI and what happen after going into S&p
SMCI, ADBE, ORCL all available at significant discounts
Thank you for this reply. I appreciate this kind of response, especially since you’ve been there, done that. Do you think the the run is over and none of these are worth holding? Believe it or not, I already sold some in the red, like SYM, SMCI, and others. I’m hoping for a few runs and moonshots. I’m feeling stronger about some than other, but know I need to sell big time
SMCI almost at liberation day price 🤣🤣🤣
SMCI have a Green Day challenge: impossible
The beat down the SMCI has been taking from this pattern has been astonishing. a company that had the white box server market sewn up tight, years before AI hype hit, and is still king of that market - and with it all of the boring gets-shit-done general compute demand that has nothing to do with AI whatsoever. it's bizarre how MU continues to be a juggernaut while SMCI languishes in spite of both being in a position similar to AVGO and MRVL - necessary but unsexy nuts and bolts suppliers of both general compute and whatever flavor of the month trend is happening with AI.
Just checked SMCI after several months. Dayum
Not a penny stock but SMCI is $30 today. It has bounced back to around $60 three times this year.
SMCI back under $30 any minute.
The SMCI falling knife is tempting tf outta me
FUBO, SMCI, and somehow BRKB
gonna ride SMCI from now til around $55. Idc how long it takes. should only be a couple months or so
100% chance of bounce on SMCI
i exited out and was losing 2k only and then jumped in 400 shares at 93 basis sold at 82 and decided that im never investing in that shit again. its on freefall to the 60s. just look at SMCI it never recovered to to its ATHs and the thing with NBIS is it migtht never even recover either we dont know when it will start generating profit if at all by that time other stoick will have grown so much
So after all of this AMD was just another SMCI?
IDK what NBIS is but I know SMCI is shit. Either sell them and average down your other losers, or just hold til it goes green again. If you have more cash you can put in, just keep averaging down on the blue chips. Sell weekly options. Sell them at a price you are happy to sell the stock at (factoring premium gains) and just keep rinsing and repeating until you are green again.
SMCI is about to drill hard into the mid 20's lol
Down 3%. I have positions in other markets so haven't been too badly affected. I recently opened positions in SMCI and GOOG which have taken a beating, otherwise my portfolio is doing well.
SMCI $28-29 MARA $9 XPENG $16-17 WRD $7-8 INOD $40-42 We’re reaching buy territory again for these stocks.
other than SMCI and NBIS (no idea what that is) those are blue chip tech stocks. just hold for the long run and forget about daily swings.
Apple during the COVID era, it doubled & split & Ive never been happier with a move. I made more with SMCI early this year going from 23 to 66 & that was filled with anxiety. Hoping my current move is more like Apple - ha ha.
SMCI straight to 30. Almost buy time again.
$CVNA will replace $SMCI $DELL to use cars as the new datacentre instead of liquid systems. This is how it works: First, chips will be added in stacks using gear rods and then turn on AC to cool the system. Also, you can power on the chips using car batteries. This is a new prototype which will be released soon by carrvana. Everyone stack up before inevitable pump 🤑
You forget when $NVDA dropped 10% in a day because shitco $SMCI didn't pre-release earnings like usual.
Any day SMCI to hit bottom, could be today
doubling down on my SMCI bags since PL payed for my next few months. lessgo internet weirdos
no turn around for SMCI?
JFC ZOOM THE FUCK OUT DUDE NBIS and maybe SMCI are a little odd but the rest of this, it's Gucci. You may have to hold for a while, but damn, quit crying. You OWN THE STOCKS. These aren't options that expire, they aren't leveraged plays, just.... ZOOM THE FUCK OUT. Up and to the right. It's what the markets do. And btw, our Commander in Queef thinks the stock market is the economy. He'll do whatever he has to in order to keep that "up and to the right" mantra going. So chill, ride the coat tails. You'll be fine, just have some fucking patience for once
NBIS and SMCI are the only two dumb ones, the others will get you profit if you just hold long term.
Exactly. OTM LEAPS burn slower. For example, my SOFI call, strike 37 exp. Jun/16/2028 cost me 7,80$ per week in average. But every week I collect about 30-40$ for every contract. So, poor man's covered call is very profitable for me. 🙂 OTM LEAPs are cheaper than ITM LEAPs and with my capital I can own more positions. 💁♂️ Another example from my portfolio: SMCI strike 35, exp. Jan/21/2028, average weekly cost 12,28$. Every week I collect 50-70$ premium from sold calls against LEAPs.
ORCL and AVGO doing what ASML and SMCI did to semis + AI back in April/July 2024
This argument has never made sense to me. SMCI went from 3 to 30 and then still hit 120, ASTS went from 2 to 20 and is at 76 and was over 100 at one point. Do you think 1000% is just a magic number where investors say “yea this company sucks now”? The fundamentals are great and still improving, they have a clean balance sheet, and the most capacity in their facilities among the other data center names. You’re thinking in terms of % rather than market cap, and this company is still under 8B MC. Thats a lot of room for growth.
Volatility never really bothered me when I reached a point where my cash management account and my sweep account had over 3 years worth of expenses. I figured with that I could weather anything. Now I’ve got a decades worth of living expenses in my cash managenemet and sweep acounts and I’ll avoid any political talk but there are a ton of obvious scams now where the governing bodies aren’t doing anything. Companies like Carvana, Oracle, SMCI, Coreweave and many look like they are obviously being shady with accounting but I don’t think it matters because nothing is done or a pardon is way smaller than what they’ll make pump and dumping the stock. Besides the first couple weeks of the pandemic (I didn’t know or have enough in the market in 2009 to care). This is the most cautious I’ve been with only 25% in equities to reduce exposure.
SMCI should rip next week..way oversold..micron earnings and their leadership is a bunch if grifters and scammers which is as American as it gets these days.. 🚀🚀
If you're not buying this SMCI dip you're not black.
Rosenblatt has reiterated a BUY on SMCI!! Price target $350!!!
It could always be worse, you could be bagholding SMCI
the 40% Oracle gained in 1 day the craziest thing I ever saw considering all this. But after seeing Carvana, SMCI, Coreweave scams run up, especially Carvana I didn’t think I could beat the stupid.
If the market catches a cold, SMCI suffers from a heart attack.
Huh, Carvana to 500 before the inclusion like that DD said suddenly doesn't seem like such a dumb call. One hopes it then follows the trajectory of SMCI after the inclusion...
SMCI peaked at its inclusion in the S&P and it's downhill ever since. A similar fate awaits that other scam shitco, CVNA.
🙏 I’ve tried to apply this pattern elsewhere but based on my testing, I have concluded that this edge lives almost exclusively with TSLA. I’ve tested this overnight logic on the usual high-volume suspects like NVDA, AMD, AAPL, META, SMCI, COIN, and MSTR. What I found after running the same backtesting on them for 2023 through 2025 were overall mixed results. NVDA had a brief hot streak in late 2023 where it worked okay (maybe a 58% to 60% hit rate), but that edge evaporated once the stock shifted to trending hard instead of mean reverting. SMCI and MSTR definitely show flashes because they act like mini TSLAs on steroids, but the risk reward is terrible because when I was wrong, the gaps were absolutely brutal. AAPL, AMD, and META were basically coin flips; they had no reliable, repeatable edge. The key here is that the core pattern ("red day plus green overnight" which means the next day tends to run green) actually works on options with any expiry, but the risk, reward, and practicality change dramatically. None of the stocks I mentioned have true daily 0DTE (Monday through Friday expiry). All of them have weekly expirations (Fridays), so I can only trade (simulate) 0DTE on Fridays and 1DTE on Thursdays (next day expiry). I specifically use 0DTE/1DTE options because they have the maximum Theta and Gamma, which lets me either: SELL puts on the bullish setup (Red Day + Green Overnight) to harvest maximum premium as the stock runs, or BUY puts on the bearish setup (Double Green) to get massive leverage on the fade (although I don’t buy puts much). Ultimately, the pattern seems to rely on a specific, perfect convergence of three things: insane retail/options gamma, "Elon level" news volatility, and thin overnight liquidity that causes the pre market crowd to massively over position themselves. TSLA is the only unicorn where all three line up consistently. Every other stock I tested was either too efficient, too slow, or the blow ups were too savage to make the long term risk reward worthwhile. I’m still looking/waiting for another stock that ever ended up with that same perfect storm of degeneracy to establish the trade card to game it.
Can avgo like back then SMCI down to shit hole ?
Recent Price $409.87 September 20th 2024 Issue **Super Micro Computer's stock price has dropped nearly 50% in value over the past three months.** **The company has announced a delay in filing its annual report.** **We remain optimistic about the company's underlying fundamentals despite recent controversies.** **Venturesome investors may be tempted here.** While we anticipate that the stock will recover as demand remains robust, it is important to recognize downside risk. Governance concerns, regulatory scrutiny, and competitive pressures should continue to weigh heavily on the stock info adequately addressed. Price Stability 5 Price Growth Persistence 40 Earnings Predictability 45 ///////// **Recent Price $44.16** December 20th 2024 Issue **Super Micro Computer has faced significant stock volatility in recent months.** **The company delayed financial reporting put it at risk of being removed from the NASDAQ>** **September-quarter results impressed.** **Aggressive risk-takers should look here.** The performance of SMCI depends on the company's ability to address challenges effectively and restore confidence. We await BDO's findings and progress in filing overdue financial reports. Price Stability 5 Price Growth Persistence 55 Earnings Predictability 55 ///////// Recent Price $36.90 March 21st 2025 Issue **Super Micro Computer avoided delisting by filing delayed financial reports right before the deadline.** The previous auditor Ernst and Young, resigned over concerns about the financials. Successor BDO affirmed their accuracy but issued an adverse opinion on internal controls. **Following an initial positive reaction, the stock sank.** It dropped 29% over a three-day period, the worst stretch since November 2023, as the reality of lingering problems quickly set in. AI stocks have been on a downward trajectory in general since late January when Chinese company DeepSeek's cost-efficient AI model shook investor confidence. **The company plans to build a third campus in Silicon Valley.** **Should you own this stock?** Super Micro remains under a DoJ investigation and faces other multiple lawsuits, which could lead to future penalty payments. The company is also contending with rising competition from major AI server rivals like Dell. However, SMCI has maintained a strong product portfolio and continues to benefit from AI-driven data center growth. While not a true "meme" stock, it has become a popular AI trade among retail investors, controlling to heightened volatility. Because of elevated uncertainty, SMCI is trading at a reasonable valuation with significant upside potential, but also has considerable downside risk. SMCI remains a speculative investment best suited for risk-tolerant investors willing to endure near-term turbulence for potential long-term gains. Price Stability Not Meaningful Price Growth Persistence 55 Earnings Predictability 55 /////////
Recent Price $1080.22 March 22nd 2024 Issue Valueline goes on **The company's flexibility and agility differentiates it from competitors.** Anytime there's a design or technology change, SMCI can assemble new systems for end customers relatively quickly. While it only has 7%-8% of the server market, it is capturing share at a solid, clip, and the total addressable market is also growing quickly. The meteoric rise in the share price, has made SMCI far less affordable than in recent history, and the market is already baking in very strong earnings growth. Thus, only aggressive risk-takers will likely find the shares suitable at the recent valuation. Price Stability 5 Price Growth Persistence 45 Earnings Predictability 45 ///////// Recent Price $786.86 June 21st 2024 **Since our last review, Super Micro Computer shares have fallen 27% in value.** ...some investors were disappointed with a lack of a price jump following the company's inclusion in theS&P 500. The shares fell further in mid-April once it became clear that the company would not pre-announce earnings results, which it had done in seven of the last eight quarters. The shares are still pu around 175$ year to date. **Investors were also disappointed that the company missed March-quarter revenue expectations.** **The company's favorable positioning should continue.** **We think these shares present a compelling value at recent price levels and suggest investors buy the stock.** Price Stability 5 Price Growth Persistence 45 Earnings Predictability 50 /////////
\[Regardless of how a corporations officer sees the matter, stock splits affect historical prices in ways that make it difficult for researchers to track the amount of growth an investor will experience.\] //////// Now Super Micro makes more sense when I found my March 2024 binder with SMCI Summary March 22nd 2024 **Since our last review, investors have been piling into Super Micro Computer sock, resulting in a heady 350% price surge.** The company is a leading vendor for NVIDIA-powered server "clusters" used to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models. That key partner delivered blowout fourth-quarter earnings and revensue and its guidance surpassed expectations. This led SMCI shared higher as investors assumed positive ripple effects. News that Supermicro stock would enter the S&P 500 helps fuel the price advance. as funds tracking the Index will add it to their portfolios. A beat and raise in the December quarter also propelled the stock. Year-over-year revenue growth of 103% reflected stock demand from both new and existing customers. This prompted management to raise fiscal 2024 revenue guidance for a third time to $14.3 billion-$14.7 billion, up from prior forecasts of $10 billion-$11 billion and $9.5 billion-$10.5 billion. **Is recent growth sustainable?** Servers used in generative AI now comprise over half of revenue and are growing at a triple-digit rate. Leadership credits structural transition from accelerated compute platforms to parallel ones. This shift enables more complex and large-scale computing tasks, which is particularly beneficial for AI and machine learning applications. in addition to cloud service providers, many enterprise customers are evaluating AI platforms to grow revenue and cut costs. We expect all these trends to continue for the foreseeable future, assuming application growth drives further infrastructure development.
Seeking Alpha Super Micro Computer: Unjustified AI Optimism And Around 31% Overvalued Feb. 16, 2024 Chetan Woodun At the time of writing, Super Micro Computer, Inc. stock had already gained more than $500 since posting strong Q2 results, driven by AI-related demand. Despite being a long-time partner of Nvidia, it faces competition and does not enjoy the same level of profitable growth. Also, demand for AI infrastructure is high, but competition, not only from other OEMs but especially from cloud service providers may impact its sales sustainability. As such, it is considerably overvalued. The underlying theme of this thesis is that demand for AI should be sustained, but the way it will be consumed by enterprises will likely be through the cloud. I start by showing how SMCI is benefiting from the AI boom, but not in the same profitable way as Nvidia, before moving to demand. //////// Key Price Movements in 2024: Peak: The stock hit its all-time high around March 2024, fueled by the AI boom, reaching over $118 per share (pre-split). Decline: Following its peak, SMCI experienced significant drops, down over 70-80% from its high by late 2024/early 2025, despite strong revenue growth. Stock Split: On October 1, 2024, SMCI executed a 10-for-1 stock split, effectively reducing the per-share price from over $400 to around $41-$42. //////// Nov 2024 (the stock was about $26) Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is moving orders away from AI hardware company Super Micro Computer (SMCI) to other suppliers to minimize disruption in the AI server industry, as reported by DigiTimes.
Jan 2024 ($24 to $50) In January 2024, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was dominated by news of a massive stock surge driven by exceptionally strong preliminary and actual Q2 fiscal year 2024 results, which significantly exceeded previous guidance due to high demand for its AI servers. Key News Events in January 2024: January 18: Business Update and Raised Guidance Super Micro provided a business update where it dramatically increased its financial outlook for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. The company expected net sales of at least $3.6 billion, a significant jump from its prior guidance of approximately $2.8 billion. January 19: Stock Surge Following the positive business update, SMCI shares jumped around 25% to a record high. The market reaction was a key factor in the stock's massive rally throughout early 2024, as investors became highly optimistic about its role in AI infrastructure, particularly its partnership with Nvidia. The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis high by this date. Feb 2024 In February 2024, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was a volatile "AI darling" stock that hit record highs, but also faced significant challenges related to financial reporting delays, which nearly led to Nasdaq delisting. ///////// I didn't notice this on the graph, it must have not lasted long Investopedia Super Micro Stock Continues Wild Week With Massive Friday Swings NAOMI BUCHANAN Updated February 16, 2024 The stock, which crossed $1,000 Thursday, has nearly tripled since the start of 2024 Super Micro Computer (SMCI) continued its wild week Friday as shares jumped in the first few minutes of trading before reversing course and moving sharply lower. The decline came as Wells Fargo initiated coverage of the stock Friday with an equal-weight rating, saying that while Super Micro stands to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, the company's share price already reflects much of the upside. The stock ended Friday's session down 20% at $803.32, after having risen as much as 7.4% in the opening minutes of trading. The stock, which has nearly tripled in price since the start of the year, surged 14% to above $1,000 on Thursday amid anticipation of future gains driven by rising demand for AI. Earlier this week, Barclays analysts had raised their price target for the stock to $961 from $691, citing Super Micro Computer's position within the AI ecosystem and "strategic" partnerships with NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Intel (INTC).