Reddit Posts
30K to invest - Oct 19 Market open
Warsh and factories: will today's data force an October Fed hike?
Portfolio Review: 3–5 Year Horizon, Moderate Risk
Anthropic reports $16.8B in 3Q26, up 50% QoQ, $SMH -2% AH, MoM calculation in Post
Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
NVDA vs SOXX, SOXQ, SMH for Long Term (21yo Portfolio Advice)
Let AI agents deploy options bots on paper desks. Worst one: long puts on TSLA/AMD/META/NFLX, 53 tra
US market - VOO or CSPX QQQ or CNDX or anything else?
Gambled my girlfriends account on MSFT and paid off
SK Hynix $SKYH Earnings Shed Light on Memory Capacity and Demand
Chips vs. SPY: SMH +46.89% and SOXX +64.66% YTD — The Performance Gap Is Widening
going all in on “small satellites”
SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
Mentions
We would be up 50% ytd if we invested in SMH
Planning to invest 30K spread across the following stocks today: MU GOOG SMH AVGO ORCL NVDA AMZN WDC/STX New investor here. Any advice from seasoned veterans? Any other stocks you’d recommend?
17 can be a reasonable thing IF they're adding value and not dilution. Like I have a cluster of biomedical stocks because they all are looking at good phase 3 releases in the near future. But a lot of this just looks like you've decided something looks shiny and added it to the pile, in a fashion where it looks like you're trying to diversify into everything, which makes it not that much different than just...sticking with VOO/VT or such. Some of these are also arguably inferior versions of other things. SFLO is likely better than AVUV. CHIPS superior to SMH and so on. Some things just horribly under perform without offering much at the moment.
SMH +5% week incoming after a retarded sell off
Hey boss I'm gonna need some that SMH ATH with extra spicy sauce
I just need one good week for SMH so I can get out of all my risky retarded calls/positions
SMH has had 10, -8% or more weeks in recent times, and it bounced back 8 out of 10 times, averaging +4.7% the following week.
SMH has had 10, -8% or more weeks in recent times, and it bounced back 8 out of 10 times, averaging +4.7% the following week.
Yeah I should have just called him regarded and to get addicted to drugs instead like the average comment here. SMH
SMH, with a healthy dose of SNDK.
Willing to bet next week SMH will be bigly green +3% to end the week at the least.
So SMH has had 11 -8% or more weeks in recent times including this week, and it bounced back 8 times out of 10, averaging +4.7% the following week?? I say, my AMD 565c are going to print this week. Not to mention, zuck will pump the market by dissipating Capex concerns.
How? So 100% VOO is the answer to investment success? Not even a combination of VOO, VGT, SMH?
I'd give it a 7.5/10. Love the consistency, but I think you're making the portfolio more complicated than it needs to be. 1. Is 17 tickers too many ? I'd consolidate. VTI already covers most of those sector ETFs. Keep SMH, AVUV or VOE if you deliberately want extra exposure, but there's a lot of unnecessary overlap here. 2. Should I add bonds at 29, or is gold plus a yearly review enough? Yes, I'd move XLI, VFH, XLV and VCR into VTI. You're already getting exposure to those businesses. 1. At 29, with a long horizon, I wouldn't feel obligated to own them. Gold isn't a bond replacement though. More important is whether you can stomach a 40% drawdown without selling. 3. International is only about 5%. Too low? 5% is pretty light. I'd personally look closer to 15–25%, although a US-heavy portfolio isn't automatically wrong. I'd probably simplify to VTI/VXUS as the foundation, with a few deliberate small/mid-cap and semiconductor tilts. The $1,100 every two weeks is doing more for your long-term wealth than having the perfect allocation anyway.
Your core can be simplified entirely to VT, VTI, or VOO. As for your aggressive satellite allocation, I’d stick to a maximum of 5 symbols and try to minimize any overlap. Your best bets here in my opinion are AVUV, SMH, QTUM, and NLR, but be careful about sector thematic ETFs. A strong argument could be made to just buy SMH there.
You’re saving for 2 years just to blow on an expensive car? SMH.
More red next week. Looking at poolling result, current administration does not have the motivation and mood to pause the war and restrict the oil price anymore. USO $200+. SMH back to $450.
Iran war is literally covered calls on QQQ and SMH. I will feel unhappier if QQQ straight to $800.
It’s more so SMH that is really hurting
I am always ready for this market to reverse. But the Nasdaq broke a trend line for the first time in 4+ years, rallied back to it, and fell back down. We shall see. The SMH saved itself similarly, but then fell back into a lower channel and is now threatening to fully collapse. Monday will be telling. The counter-ternd rally falling apart after a single day so spectacularly though is more brutal than I think we all want to admit atm.
$SPY $QQQ $MU $SMH $NVDA $TSM $ASML Nothing burger, AI not going away
SMH, Coreweave and MU etc still above yesterdays lows... Our only hope
Largest inflow to semis ever recorded this week $SOXX $SMH
SMH straight $700 in 2 months. It is surreal to see Cramer destroying Burry's portfolio.
Down 5% this week, but still up 11.88% YTD. SMH 🤦♂️
AND she knew how to line dance. If she only knew the "jerk two guys off at once" dance this all could have been avoided. SMH.
SMH. Any similarities here boyos? https://preview.redd.it/z1qgqj0fulvh1.jpeg?width=1264&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5897f0419f40317310db2675367355f5054d27fd
Insane 1000 people upvoted this lol. It didn't disappear, it was just moved elsewhere. SMH.
Interesting how you take "the bait" of comparing yourself, by an imaginary sense of superiority, over others, to that of a worm. SMH😒
Well when a journalist from Barrons can write an article on a Chinese HBM chip maker CXMT having better memory chips can tank the semiconductor and AI stocks makes you wonder if he was short SMH or DRAM. One article and one trillion damage so far…can I sue Barrons? Smh
Staring at numbers on a screen all day isnt hard work. Literally sat on your ass in a computer chair. Just a sign of the times. One person loses another gets wealthy and its called work. The guy that lost was working too somehow... SMH.
Been saying the bubble burst for months, and the SMH is at +63% YTD.
SMH and other AI stock charts look like they are about to leave complacency and enter anxiety…
Society don’t need high end models. Current AI-models good enough for performance improvements of 99.9% population No need to spend anymore, until get ROI from last 4 years spending AI debt load collapse many banks,spending slow down No new spending means, $SMH $QQQ $SPY crash
SMH and SNDK, trying to add during the dip
Just SMH Likely down 7 days in a row, in the past, such pattern always leads to superb 3+ month outperformance, including the one episode on 02/27/2001!
Lol overdramatic market we already priced in two hikes. Lol...and because of energy inflation rises higher SMH....calls bitches.
Although I don't doubt your possible timeline. It confounds me that Trump asked for an expedited recommendation and there's a possibility that his hand picked ALJ drags it for a month or two. SMH
Then how do I breathe? SMH 😤
Honestly I dont know what will pump, I am just putting in everything. Either of QQQ SMH IGV has to pump up if they decide to pump the market. I just dont know which it will be.
I have individual stocks but you can get a safer exposure to same through QQQ IGV and SMH.
Just put equal in QQQ, IGV and SMH. Who knows what one they will pump more.
Only 85~90% margins, not 100% SMH
France refrigerators attack by AI powered hackers Finally AI bubble burst with Rogue AI-models. Current AI models good enough for 8.5 Billion population performance improvements. No need new models, new spending, next 5 years That crash semiconductors badly, 70-90% semiconductors get correction $SPY $QQQ $SMH
$SPY $QQQ $SMH finally AI bubble burst with Rogue AI-models. Current AI models good enough for 8.5 Billion population performance improvements. No need new models, new spending, next 5 years. That crash semiconductors badly, 70-90% semiconductor stocks get big correction
80/20 split SMH SNDK
SMH ad during MNF Top is fucking in on semis
Everyone has been making boatloads of money during this bull run. SMH.
I knew the day I would finally jump on the memory train would their death sentence. Can't win shit. SMH
we had a correction in June, SMH was down close to 30%
Thats RegT. Margin req is vastly different for PM acct. But the issue is that if you are not borrowing money, then margin req doesnt matter. But does it>? This is the cofnusion. Amd I actually using $666 for buy SMH or am I actually using $100 if Im not borrowing?
Intuitively, it should be SOXL because it is leveraged. This is how I do the evaluation. I use Reg-T margin. This is the results for selling an Oct 16 0.30 delta put: ||strike|Premium|Margin|return, %| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SMH|580|4.2|13658|3.1| |SOXL|121|3.1|6978|4.4| |USD|89|0.9|3336|2.7| SOXL has the highest return.
So if Im not borrowing any money, then this analysis doesnt work? In other words, Im actually using $666 for SMH and $333 for USd and $100 for SOXL and, therefore, the SOXL will make the most ROC?
I think you are trying to apply logic to markets which generally doesn't work. More so in non buy and hold strats. Just simply go back and look at SMH days and see what ADBE, or really most SAAS companies do when SMH is up or down. I held CRM and ADBE puts earlier this year for really good gains so I was constantly watching. When the AI trade was pumping, SAAS went down. When the AI trade was pulling back, SAAS went up. They are inverse trades. At the end of the day short any SAAS is just long AI.
I love me some SPCX. I thought about SMH, but I went with BOTT & ARTY instead.
nice plan but especially the QQQ/SMH and 6% single‑name (NVDA) looks like over‑concentration; consider upping the large‑cap core to about 90% VOO/VTI and putting the 10‑15% into diversified growth or international; keep a bond ladder for the 40‑year‑horizon and test your 10‑year trailing rule against a realistic drawdown before you lock it in.
80% S&P plus QQQ plus SMH is the same 10 companies wearing three different tickers. and the january rule means you'll cut the tilt right at the bottom, nice system
80% S&P plus QQQ plus SMH is the same 10 companies wearing three different tickers. and the january rule means you'll cut the tilt right at the bottom, nice system
This is a thoughtful plan, especially the spending rate, long horizon for your dependent, and precommitted rules. My main concern is that the “tilt” may be less diversified than it looks: the S&P 500, QQQ, SMH, and NVDA overlap heavily in large-cap tech and semiconductors. I’d stress-test the whole portfolio—not just the tilt—against a long stretch of U.S. large-cap underperformance, a major drawdown near retirement, and the dependent’s needs. What bond allocation and cash-flow plan would protect the retirement date if stocks fell hard in years 7–10?
SMH vs SOXX is like the chocolate ice cream vs vanilla with chocolate syrup debate
Age is the central question. Or brass tacks, number of years you plan on living, I suppose. In any case, this portfolio doesn't make much sense. 8% QQQ? Why bother, considering the overlap. And OP cites NVDA as a single stock, but it's the biggest position in both QQQ and S&P. Just pointless. /u/Inevitable_Abies_777 not trying to slam your concept here, but it's just fussing around the edges. If you're going risk-on, just VOO it up, or if you're looking for a reason to actively oversee it, 90%+ VOO with a splash of individual SMH components. Otherwise, you're better off derisking from the S&P, not leaning into it. Take a lesson from the train industry—the sign is a big RXR—as in, do not cross Risk and Retirement
you are pretty heavy nvda, SMH is a large part of QQQ and SP500, NVDA is the largest part of SMH
>QQQ and SMH add the chip-making and memory layer the S&P under-owns Semis are \~20% of the S&P 500. Do you really call that "under-owned"? Compared to what? I see that you're going all-in on AI. I understand that. I believe AI is a revolution not a fad. But the reason why semiconductor stocks have risen so much is partly due to a supply shortage which has caused margins to skyrocket. Micron's gross margins have traditionally been near zero. Now they are 75%. Even if revenues will stay permanently higher than they used to be (and I think they will), margins will not, because high margins attract new supply. Memory chips in particular are a realtively simply component that will be commoditised. Nvidia is a great company that will do well, but their 75% gross margins are not sustainable either. They hail from a time when there was no alternative to Nvidia (because of CUDA) and almost all GPU use was training rather than inference. Mass market inference will not permanently pay anyone 75% margins. So while I believe in the AI story in the long run, I think we are in an extremely unsual phase of this development. Capital investment in this technology is at historical extremes as a percentage of GDP. Only the railroad boom in the late eighteenhundereds is comparable and could yet be dwarfed by the AI investment boom. I'm not predicting a crash and I have no idea about timing. But while you can ignore normal business cycles when your investment horizon is 10 years, I think you cannot ignore the historical dimensions of what's going on right now. This is highly unusual. In my opinion you are way overexposed to semis. You're doubling down procyclically on the one part of the AI industry that's currently profitable. If AI is to succeed then others will have to benefit from it as well and semiconductor margins will need to come back to earth.
as you approach retirement you should really be turning to wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. SMH and single stock picks are great early in your investing career but can easily take a 30-40% correction right as you're closing in on retirement. I would dump those 2 allocations specifically and move to more stable positions like SCHD or DGRO or even bonds.
6/10. Diversify at least 25%. 25% on VXUS. 10% QQQM. 10% SMH. 55% VOO.
Your overall approach seems reasonable given your 2.8% spending rate and long investment horizon. But a few things stick out to me. QQQ, SMH, and your individual stocks add considerable concentration to technology and semiconductors already heavily represented in the S&P 500. You acknowledge the risk of another technology bust like the one following 2000, but limiting your additional tilt to 20% doesn’t account for the exposure already embedded in your core holdings. The AI investment thesis is plausible, but enormous capital spending doesn’t necessarily translate into superior stock returns. A lot depends on how much future growth is already reflected in valuations. Lastly, you may want to focus more on managing sequence of returns risk as retirement approaches rather than waiting until three years out to begin shifting toward bonds. Overall, you’re in a much better position than most. Congrats, and good luck on your journey toward a comfortable retirement!
NVDA: 8% of S&P 500, 9% of QQQ, 22% of SMH, 100% of NVDA Numbers not exact but watch for concentration risk.
I’d keep Bitcoin at about 10–12% and trim a little from VT, then add a 3–5% position in a high‑quality semiconductor ETF like SMH or a diversified tech ETF like QQQ. To hedge against a 40–50% market drop, put a small cush‑er in a low‑volatility bond or money‑market UCITS‑compliant fund—those are hard to liquidate but provide a safety net while you still chase upside. Also double‑check the tax rules for crypto in your country; selling can trigger a tax event even if capital gains are nominally exempt. That’s a balanced way to boost risk‑adjusted return without blowing the diversification that keeps early FI realistic.
somebody needs to hear this. I Bought Broadcom at IPO for $20 made a little bit of money and cashed out at $40 to build my website. It wasnt a big investment, I turned $1k into $2k But my lord... SMH Roast me.
You are aware that donors could just donate the stock to a charity instead (and have always been able to do so) for the same tax benefit, and that the only thing that's changed is now they can give it to an individual newborn to help with their education? Oh, you weren't? Figured. SMH this thread is filled with completely financially illiterate people who have no idea how anything works and have never had to do a tax return more complicated than the 1040EZ in their lives.
USA is buying diesel from Russia SMH
Yeah there are tons of bear signs on the Semis: Nvidia getting rejected by its bullish breakout and the SMH/SOXX midline rejections were pretty telling. Lots of murmurings going around about the CapEx supercycle has peaked.
But Lindsey Cook may have filled out her mortgage application incorrectly. SMH
SMH, shitting the bed, but AMZN is really going for it.
Imagine having enough money to do anything you want and that is what you want to do. SMH
If SMH dips another 1%, I’m loading up calls. But, that’s my dumb ass move.
Dude you make footlongs for other men. SMH
If it does how much would AI and simi stocks drop? SMH and SOXQ are up around 100% in the last year. Even if they dropped 70% (which would be insane), they would still be doing better than the SP500.
Yeah, I got that one so wrong. SMH.
now and in the past I have been well invested in SMH, DRAM, SOXQ, CHPS, etc etc and these have all generated significant gains.
I’d sell throw into QQQ and SMH and retire.
One russian got sick and they're now worried about a world pandemic or something, idk. SMH
I think a somewhat better option is to be using strategic puts and collars to hedge, ideally on SMH, QQQ etc. Jsut remember that hedging is insurance; you only hate having it until that oooooone moment you're so glad you do.
The real move is passive, long term, investing. Stop trying to time the market and be happy with what the S&P 500 returns. We’re up 14% YTD. If 14% isn’t enough for you add some risk. I have SMH, and VGT on top of VOO and I’m up 25% YTD. The only trading I really did to get that is buying the March dip with about 30k.
this discussion is pointless, the majority of SMH is in SPY
What are you talking about? Why don't you just say - semiconductor sector or leaders. SMH - some of its holdings have little to do with SPY.