Reddit Posts
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
NVDA vs SOXX, SOXQ, SMH for Long Term (21yo Portfolio Advice)
Let AI agents deploy options bots on paper desks. Worst one: long puts on TSLA/AMD/META/NFLX, 53 tra
US market - VOO or CSPX QQQ or CNDX or anything else?
Gambled my girlfriends account on MSFT and paid off
SK Hynix $SKYH Earnings Shed Light on Memory Capacity and Demand
Chips vs. SPY: SMH +46.89% and SOXX +64.66% YTD — The Performance Gap Is Widening
going all in on “small satellites”
SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
New to US market, Need advice for SIP in Tech Etfs
I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.
Add more on Monday? (Added $40k on Thursday)
Mentions
yeah SOXX is more diversified, SMH is mostly nvda/mu, i still think mu and nvda have some juice left
SMH is a good pick to not get left behind AI and semis, I'd avoid dram doe
I would do VTI for 50%, VUG for 20%, SMH for 20%, and 10% for individual stocks that you have high conviction. So that you have a core VTI holding, with the other 50% exposed to high growth sectors capturing the AI and tech opportunities.
Taxable account my goal is to not sell. I am 65% in VOO and 35% NVDA, GOOG, MU, IBM. I’ll take a few shots here and there but for the most part this is the plan. If you like etfs, I like SMH. Others ran up more this year but I like smh. Toss a few bucks into a space etf.
Thinking of shorting SMH if it opens green tomorrow
Semis ran up but I think SMH is great and throw a little money into a space etf as well. I would imagine 15-20 years from now several of those companies will make people rich.
And ain't a nan a one of them cute, hot or sexxy. SMH!
I invest in VUAA CNDX IUIT SMH 0 tax for me
$SPY $QQQ $XLF $XLK $XLC $XLY $SMH $IWM see earnings soon. Vix spike to 25 at earning. Cash flow negative for many. AI-ponzi spending. Big corporate debt load, cost more to service at higher rate. Earning suffer, as jobloss spike, consumer spending down
SMH turned the 618 fib into support earlier this week and now its making the 786 its btch
SPY too overweight with underperformers. SOXX or SMH instead
look at the SMH and SOXX etfs. TSM for broad semi coverage, MU or SNDK if ur a high volatility degen, AVGO if you like AAPL because its a boomer stock basically. most of the others are memes that ran ahead of their earnings way too much and trade at crazy valuations, and swing way harder without the earnings to back them up.
All i had to do for riches was fullport SMH a year ago. But nooo 'cyclical bust' and all that. Turns out that will only apply starting november when the bubble pops.
Sell all 30000. Save that 962K while you can. Buy SPY, VOO, IVV, XLK, QQQ, SMH. Don't open your portfolio next one year. Thank me after 1 year.
I aint reading that... but SMH is going a lot higher ✨
tf pump just getting started folks SMH heading to 735 next resistance zone
train is leaving the station folks next step SMH 735
SMH is literally infinitely more stable today than the Qs just because of fucking GOOGL.
>I am betting on future revamping the US electrical system and full electrification The need for this would have to align with a belief that AI datacenter buildout will continue to scaleout for the foreseeable future. In that case the better investment is SMH SOXX and more energy focused AIPO. I think you're going to find that in many of those engery ETF's there will be a lot of dead weight (espeically in TAN). In the semi space, you have companies selling products and services backed by IP and at high margin; whereas energy is a commodity. Sure you will see some earnings growth in energy, but ultimately it cannot scale that fast and is fractured (as in many share the pot). Individual big winners sure, but ETF will water them down by a lot, that broader index is better long term.
The concentration profile would matter more to me than the fact that it has recently outperformed. A broader semiconductor basket can behave very differently from SMH when one or two mega cap names are driving the sector. I follow individual chip moves more tactically on Moon sometimes but for an ETF I would care much more about the weighting methodology.
QQQM is an easy answer. SMH if you believe AI will continue to be a major theme (I think it will).
SMH! My DIL is very similar…. At all cost!
FSELX or SMH - just look at the AAR since the 80s
Interesting ETF. I like that it’s more spread out instead of 20% in NVDA like SMH.
Implied move down from 10% to 7% while SMH IV sits in the 30s, so the market's pricing a quieter event than last time. How are you structuring it?
Imagine arguing with L'mady SMH
Implied move for the last earnings report was 10%. I saw SMH IV in the mid 50's to low 60's. Now the implied move is the 7% figure you quoted and SMH IV is in the 30's. With everything going on; you'd think vol wouldn't be that low for this event. Long vol doesn't seem like a bad idea.
Ffai.... SMH what a disappointment. Glad I got out... bkyi is my saving grace right now.
| Time ET | Report | Expected | If ABOVE expected | If BELOW expected | |---|---|---:|---|---| | **8:15** | **ADP private jobs** | **+72K** | 🔴 More hiring → yields may rise → **QQQ/tech pressured** | 🟢 Weaker hiring → yields may fall → **tech relief** | | **8:30** | **Core PCE MoM** | **+0.3%** | 🔴 **Biggest danger.** Hot inflation → yields/Fed expectations ↑ → **QQQ, SMH, AAPL, DELL ↓** | 🟢 **Best outcome for tech.** Inflation cooling → yields ↓ → tech potentially ↑ | | **8:30** | Headline PCE MoM | ~**+0.4%** | 🔴 Inflation hotter, especially problematic with expensive oil | 🟢 Inflation pressure easing | | **8:30** | Core PCE YoY | roughly **3.3–3.4%** | 🔴 If materially above that → stronger “higher-for-longer” reaction | 🟢 Below that → favorable for bonds/tech | | **8:30** | Per
We are literally going to need rehab centers for Claude crackheads once the bulbbe bursts. SMH.
May as well just buy SOXL or SMH
SMH or QQQ calls?
SMH or QQQ calls ?
In March I bought 78 shares of SMH and I’m up about $16k on that alone. I don’t sell often, so I don’t have a lot of powder for dips, but if you’re going to time, you buy the dip and sell the ATH.
I am short QQQ and SMH. That is fine after record gains. The difference is, I did not go full retard and only allocated 1% of my port, and I think that's excessive. Also, I am long UMC with 5X and some green 2027 leaps.
SMH last 5 years: 372% AVGO last 5 years: 623% Lagging the semis rally?
SMH calls and SPY puts maybe?
I don’t know why your question got downvoted so much, reasonable ask. Keep the balance in your ETFs, etc, but my recommendation would be to pick a semiconductor fund to take advantage of the AI boom: XSD, SMH, etc.
That extra detail helps. If your wife is still working and you file jointly, don't assume you're ineligible for a Roth IRA just because your own income is a disability pension. There are spousal IRA rules that may let you contribute based on household compensation, so I'd confirm how you file and how your pension is reported before ruling the Roth in or out. On the portfolio side: yes, VT can absolutely be "risky enough." VT is still essentially an all stock global portfolio. It owns thousands of companies across the U.S., developed international markets and emerging markets. It's diversified, but it is not conservative. The important distinction is: 1. Diversification reduces the risk of making a few concentrated bets. 2. It does not remove stock-market risk. So if you hold 90–100% VT, you're still taking substantial equity risk. You just aren't also betting heavily on semiconductors, Nasdaq growth, small cap value and emerging markets ex-China at the same time. If you're just starting out, I'd probably begin simpler. Use a broad market core until you understand why you want a specific tilt. You can always add AVUV, SMH or something else later. What I wouldn't do is choose extra concentration just because it feels like a faster route to building wealth. A simple portfolio can still be very aggressive.
Before changing the portfolio, I’d check one tax issue first.Since you’re retired on a disability pension, make sure you actually have taxable compensation that qualifies you to contribute to a Roth IRA. Regular pension/annuity income generally doesn’t count as IRA compensation, although some employer disability pensions can be treated as wages until minimum retirement age. Check how yours is reported before funding the Roth. On the portfolio itself, I think you’re mixing up “aggressive” with “concentrated.” AVUV, SMH, QQQM and EMXC give you exposure to: small-cap value,semiconductors,Nasdaq/growth,emerging markets excluding China. That can absolutely be aggressive, but it also means several very specific bets at once. You don’t need those bets just to have a high risk/high-growth portfolio. A broad market portfolio that is 90–100% stocks is already aggressive. If you want tilts, I’d start with a diversified core and then add smaller satellite positions only where you have a clear reason to want the extra risk. The phrase I’d be careful with is “build quick.” More concentrated funds can outperform, but they can also underperform for long stretches. They don’t give you a reliable shortcut. I’d also look at whether four months of emergency savings is enough given that your mortgage is about 40% of your pension and you no longer have employment income to fall back on. So I’d do this in order: 1. Confirm Roth IRA contribution eligibility. 2. Decide how much emergency cash you really need. 3. Choose your broad stock allocation. 4. Only then decide whether AVUV, SMH or other tilts deserve a smaller place around that core.
Might want to consider SOXX or SOXQ. SMH is top heavy because it let its winners run, whereas the other 2 rebalance. Most of SMH's gains come from NVDA which is priced in for perfection now, not much room for it to moon anymore.
Go somewhere else where? The countries we ransacked for natural resources? You can steal light from someone’s home and then complain when they’re coming over because you’re house is the only house with the lights on. SMH
I was a happy man selling my SMH calls for a decent profit, then I looked in the mirror. When did I transform into a lesbian prison guard?
SMH shares are up 65% ytd. If you weren’t in semis this year you hate money.
No cares until they decide to roll the market. Then everyone, look at yields. SMH 🤦
I buy a few SMH calls when it dips like it did 2 days ago, but I know if I full port, that will be the day that the AI bubble explodes
Man, you don't accept other viewpoints. SMH. I can get literal cash into my checking account in max 2 days by selling the equities (no bonds to mature). If the emergency is payment needed within the hour, I have credit cards that have a total of over 50k limits so zero stress here about it. Now go away.
So the Fed will cut rates by ... raising rates? SMH
Going to be a chip deal. SOXX SMH going to rip. Mostly going to be a nothing burger. But the market will eat that shit up
But it clearly can be a great way to lose money. This guy makes the case. If you lack trading discipline you are bound to lose at one point, no matter how lucky you were before. We keep seeing these losses posted by people who really need lessons in portfolio sizing, portfolio risk, and planning exits before entries. SMH.
I bought SMH at ATH with 3% of total capital uwu
I sold my Vaneck SMH ETF shares at break even, literal garbage.
Im mainly holding SNDK SMH AND MU but close enough lol
30% Cash, 15% Stock (Speculation plays mostly), 55% ETFs FLKR - ~4.75% SPYM - ~17% SCHB - ~17% SCHF - ~11 SMH - ~4.7 Roth
Can AVGO just pump to like 375 today and when the fuck is SMH getting anywhere near ATH again?
No, facts are true. Fiction is the current SMH.
Anyone else about to load SMH puts for March 2027 using their life savings?
Everybody's Michael Burry until they get run over by the SMH Express
I would track SKHY stock closely next few weeks. It could really move up next few weeks. It was just added to SMH ETF. One of the biggest SOX ETF in the world. This is the recognition SK HYNIX Was looking for by coming to America 2 months ago. Being added to SMH ETF Today means SK HYNIX stock now has the upward momentum it seriously needs
You forgot to say please LOL SMH
$QQQ nothing changed. War chaos. Midterm time. Oil high, Fed rate high, AI theme fading, no IPO of OpenAI & Anthropic, it crash many debt-financed leverage products, even SoftBank will be in trouble with $ARM Today Outlier after Q3 Opex,ready for $QQQ 650 $MU $META $AMD $SMH pump dump like Situational Awareness probably very short term.
After 250 years of US independence, all are not intelligent enough, need to spend $5-10 Trillion to become super intelligent AI technology can be here, but financial derivatives products crash 90%,as leverage too high $NVDA $MU $AMD $INTC $SMH $QQQ $SPY all see high rate impact
I’m not as concerned with the bubble, and I have VOO, VGT, and SMH. But I got in to SMH a couple years ago, and it feels late now. That has me up 20% YTD. And if there’s a correction, I have plenty of room before I’m loosing any money. I’d recommend VOO and QQQ, 60/40 or 70/30.
Did Nasdaq really just pump just to fill a FvG from June. SMH.
AVGO has had a crap year, but its 3 year return is still more than 10% better than SMH and 40% better than SOXX, so it just ran up its gains ahead of broader semis. Even more than NVDA, it has been resting, but while resting its forward PE settled in to "very solid investment" territory. I wouldn't buy it to make a buck this month, or hold it in a non-taxable account, but if you are holding it with big gains in a taxable account it should give an above market return with relatively low risk over the medium-term.
I prefer SMH over SOXX because there is more weighting towards NVDA and TSM. SOXX carries too much weight in AMD and MU for my liking. Not anything against those companies, but AMD has very high price premium and they haven't quite found that NVDA like anchor in the AI space just yet. MU still carries that cyclical worry. But NVDA and TSM are more or less the bedrock of semi space AI buildout. I don't really see any issue with holding some weight of all of QQQM, NVDA and either SOXX or SMH. I'd probably suggest you add VOO in there as well. Disclosure: Own QQQM, NVDA, SMH, VOO
At 21, I’d focus less on picking the “winner” and more on concentration risk. 😂 NVDA is one company; SMH/SOXX/SOXQ spread that risk across \~30 semiconductor names, though NVDA is still a major holding in the ETFs. A 58% single-stock position is the bigger thing I’d think about.
I chose SMH and I'm doing the same thing as you, $100 on it every month, rest goes to broad market and commodity producers
SOXQ has the lowest ER of the 3 you mentioned and has been outperforming SMH in the last year or so. Who knows if it will still continue. SOXQ is also not so top heavy with Nvidia like SMH. Chances are if you have VOO or growth ETFs you have chunk of NVDA.
SMH is more top-heavy than SOXX. By allowing its winning positions to run larger before rebalancing, it has consistently outperformed SOXX over the past five years. SOXX has outperformed SMH this year, because all the smaller companies have made more gains than the large ones (NVDA,TSM, AVGO). I think over long term SMH will continue to outperform SOXX.
I’m also considering just holding onto my NVDA position and starting a new position in a semi ETF (like SOXX, SOXQ or SMH) with $100, then DCA'ing $100/month into it going forward. My thesis is that chip stocks still have a ton of room for long-term growth, and buying into a semi ETF right now lets me capture that sector momentum without adding more single-stock risk, But cant decide which ETF to choose.
Nvidia is very cheap compared to other semiconductor companies, so I wouldn't make that move at least now. I actually sold SMH and NVDA was one of the positions I added.
Highly unlikely. Esp after that pump, after that dip, after that rate hike. SMH 🤦♂️
everyone complaining about today makes me realize yall dont hold nearly as much SMH as I do cause I'm happy as a pig doing whatever makes pigs happy
My portfolio still doesn't have enough semiconductor stocks. SMH +2.21%, but both my main portfolios were red today.
The day i went fully in Wendys the day after they declare bankruptcy. SMH.
Why'd you write SMH then? It's fucked to look at someone's plea for help and comment on the graphic design of it.
This AI generated flyer looks like a Whatnot show! SMH this is our future online.
Opex day, $6.2 Trillion to watch $SPY $QQQ $SMH all hanging high, can get big red day https://preview.redd.it/kqlva5rz88qh1.png?width=801&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bce903eb8ee43caf7f069f1dfc2719eafa5bdf7
Rate hike cycle & timing of recession always correlated. Now all AI spending cooling, all AI IPO delay with over hype theme without ROI. Rest of economy in recession when only hype semi & Neo clouds hang with vibes. Higher rate impact all including AI $SPY $QQQ $XLK $XLF $SMH going big Opex , 6 Trillion transactions pump volatility
$DELL. Give donation to Trump Kids account Got few Billion contracts from DC Hedge fund buddies pump DELL DELL, looking to add debt load . Is it circular finance? $HPE $PANW $OKTA downgraded AI cooling soon cool, semi & servers $SPY $QQQ $SMH higher rate pain 1 by 1
it is staggering how butt-hurt people can be on this sub sometimes, instead of just being genuinely happy for people who make a decent bag. SMH, I honestly do not get the jealousy, wtf is wrong with some of you...
0DE Gambling :SMH
Fed hike 0.25 after a long time Looking housing sentiment, when all sectors of economy cooling &only AI-hype push index high, how the economy will react? 10Yr at \~5%, after 19 years If AI delay, many IPO delay, many banks struggle next $QQQ $SPY $SMH $XLK $XLF $NVDA $MU just pump dump Algo, when AI story cooling
Interesting take. I have been burned a few times by buying a localized top as well, which is basically what you are describing. then being stuck in downward momentum particularly on SMH semiconductor etf with kinda bad timing. agree, my biggest takeaways from investing are similar in nature. be very, very cognizant of entry price is another way to put a sort of same concept, check 5, 20, 50 EMA plots, etc. see where the momentum is and pragmatically assess if it makes sense to open the position. another thing I have loved is starting positions small, and developing into them. lot of success with this method. really only backfires in some gap-up situation (which is rare anyway) and ties into your longevity/checking method. for example if I wanted to invest $10k in something, probably would start with even something as low as $500, and play it out over time, see if it's working how you think
Tech (XLK) & Semis (SMH) for the long term. If you think ai is a dud, you obviously haven’t tried ChatGPT 6 Pro. It’s AGI for just $20/mo.
In TEM but i think SMH is coming back
SMH flipped green, can QQQ follow?!?
Why am I always attracted to failing businesses? AVGO, LULU, NFLX. SMH.