SMH

SillySweetieBell

F18 OFFICIALLY starting out. What should I add? 300$ budget Yeah yeah. Yuck it up. Im broke whats new. But investing 370 is still better than nothing sooooo. I have 65 in s&p500 and 5 in SMH LMAOOOO

Vlisa

SMH, they’ll never let us win.

Rav_3d

But they likely won’t be selling IBM, they’ll be selling the high fliers. IBM has only just started recovering off its lows. The other space stocks like PL, BKSY, RDW, FLY might take a hit. If the market goes parabolic into the SPCX IPO it will be a great low risk opportunity to buy puts in SMH and QQQ.

nanobot_1000

My portfolio was nearly all NVDA the past decade, since last fall I have been diversifying it into VT/VOO and a little SPMO/SMH. I put a small amount in MU and DRAM for FOMO but it triggered -15% stop loss and sold, then continued taking off 🤷‍♂️ I also have a HYSA at 4.40% APY with 3 years of expenses in it but am otherwise suspicious of the openly acknowledged market manipulation occuring by our current administration, the oil situation, tech CEOs cutting AI spend from "tokenmaxxing", public outrage against datacenters, ect. What's clear is those in power will do anything to prop up the market economy under the auspices of national security, but I already had a good run and left the corporate world and have less appetite for risk now.

Bert_McQueen

I started investing by putting money each week into a mutual fund through my bank, I did this for 10 years until I had about $100,000. I don’t even know what it was, it was safe but it didn’t grow very much. After reading a bunch of books and going to a seminar I decided to open a self directed account and started putting a few hundred dollars per week into it. After about 4 years I had invested around $30,000 which grew to $55,000. I started with BRK-B and MSFT and I had some SPY and AAPL. In January of 2025 I received a small inheritance and then I decided to consolidate everything in my self directed account and manage it myself. So in January of 2025 I started with $225,000 which took me about 15 years to save up. Today my portfolio is worth $455,000 meaning that it has doubled in a year and 5 months. In the first year it returned 43% which surprised me, I was hoping for maybe 20%. So far this year it’s up 41%, I am surprised and delighted. Now that I have it where I like it in terms of position size and stocks, I just just keep putting about $500 a month in and I buy whatever is down and cheap out of my chosen stocks. My plan is to hold long term and just keep chipping away. I might start building positions in VRT and ARM over the next year, I also want to add more CAT I wish I had bought more. [Here](https://imgur.com/Wx6JQdp) is what my portfolio looks like today, here is more detail about [ASTS](https://imgur.com/y4Q1xeS) and here is more about [SMH](https://imgur.com/SwtwRMh). I heard about SMH in a youtube video, I learned about ASTS in a reddit post. I learned everything I know from watching youtube videos.

Hoosier2016

The average tech stock dropped 75-80% in the dot com crash. Many speculative stocks dropped to near-zero. I think it’s reasonable to say a semiconductor crash of similar proportions would bring DRAM/SMH/SOXX down 90%+ compared to 50% in an absolute worst-case for VT.

aa278666

I had a chance to make close to $30k on SMH, but I walked away with $8k. Here's the thing tho, once you start seeing the bull run are you gonna hold or jump off early? Be honest with yourself. I know I jump off early to take profit. Consistency beats lottery tickets.

Ashamed_Variation435

Buy a PUT and a CALL to remove direction betting . Example : 400 CALL + 700 PUT for SMH. Get it as far out as possible (with minimum premium), sell weekly call and weekly put with good buffer. In few weeks you will recoup premium…. after that every week is free income as far as the ETF doesn’t behave like a meme stock and break through the bounds

Ashamed_Variation435

I sold Google and realized the profit. Right now I have SMH, GDX and XLK. Selling weeklies but less than 20 delta as I want to hold long term

YOLOintoposition

Because buying this under $3 last week wouldn’t have made sense at the time and you would have already doubled your money. SMH.

xstream-dream

SMH

golf_234

Decent point but i do see pretty big performance differences with them depending on conditions. I'm more or less letting them all run for a while, and seeing if I want to keep or cut any. did reduce the number of etfs though, currently in VOO VOOG VXUS SPMO VGT SMH QQQ by having them all running for a while gaining some insights as to how they are all performing in different market conditions etc with slightly different balances of holdings, even if there is overlap. if any aren't cutting it will definitely trim

GMVexst

It's been hard to miss, stock picking might not be for you. Try some VOO, VGT, SMH type ETFs and chill

SetRestart

I'm only 28 but based on my research during the dot com boom, the biggest difference between then and now comes down to real cash flow versus paper promises. Back in the late 90s the boom was fueled by pure speculation over the birth of the commercial internet. Investors completely ignored traditional financial metrics to chase website traffic and premature IPOs, which led to an massive infrastructure overbuild that took years for actual consumer adoption to catch up with. Today’s AI boom feels just as hyped on the surface to anyone who is bearish but under the hood it's a completely different animal. The tech titans leading the charge today are highly profitable companies like Meta, Amazon, Google, NVIDIA etc. are cash generating monsters funding their massive AI infrastructure out of their own deep pockets rather than speculative debt. Valuations are stretched in ways for some but they are still tethered to these skyrocketing revenues and immediate enterprise adoption. The real risk this time around isn't a total lack of substance, but rather the massive spend to revenue gap during this developmental phase while big tech is pouring hundreds of billions into chips and data centers, the pressure is strictly on software sales to eventually justify that historic upfront investment. I have very little skin in the game other than a few good early buys on SanDisk, Micron and SMH but I think we still have many years of this boom, this tech and renewable energy is the future whether we like it or not. The tech of the dot com bubble was the future but the market's timing and valuations were just wrong.

usa_reddit

Same thing happened to me on SMH I feel your pain brother. I don't have any stops set on MU and don't want to loose this one due to a temporary "fake engineered" dip.

AdFancy6764

If you’re still bullish long term, trimming delta instead of fully exiting probably makes more sense. Selling the whole position because of short-term IV/cooling risk can easily turn into watching SMH keep grinding higher without you.

trsx5

SELL YOUR $SMH, IS 5000x NOT ENOUGH FOR YOU?

joe4942

Semiconductors now so dominant in the indices that with software +4.4% today, the QQQ is only +0.3% with SMH +0.14%.

idkbro_01

The only time I listened to my coworker is when I bought XRP at 4.86 $CAD (max it's ever been is 4.90 $ CAD). Only put 100$ so lost like 60$ right now. I'm way up with MU, SMH right now, so I'm good.

fr_cuh

I’ve been seeing some great performance with SMH but was scared to put in $7k after I already saw so much growth (idk if that’s the right move..), I put all of it into VOOG (like a riskier VOO). Now I am at peace, until I calculate how much I lost out on.

TheShowtime7

I bought in Dram at 57 for 25k, doing good so far. I will hold for atleast a year and DCA 1000 dollars a month from now on, with also doing the same with SMH. All I can do is hope I’m right.

godtogblandet

Because AI fucked up. How hard is it to create catlike femboys from the prompt «Pussy dudes». SMH.

Wide-Contribution-29

If you're unsure buy one of the sector ETFs: SOXX, SOXL (if you want leverage), SMH (my personal favorite)...there are a few others...Split that with DRAM. Or also add EUV for photonics. You can't go wrong either way. AMD will hit $1trillion MC soon...

One-Care-3222

Gonna be honest with you because I think you need to hear this more than you need a stock tip: **"I don't want to buy at all time highs" is one of the most expensive beliefs in investing.** All time highs are not a warning sign. They are literally how markets work over time. The S&P 500 has spent a huge portion of its entire history at or near all time highs. If you had avoided buying at all time highs for the last 20 years you would have massively underperformed someone who just... kept buying. The mental trap you're falling into is thinking that "low price = better opportunity." But a stock at $8 that deserves to be at $4 is more expensive than a stock at $400 that deserves to be at $600. Price alone means nothing. Value is what matters. **Now looking at your actual portfolio:** MU at 34.88% is a massive concentration in one cyclical semiconductor name. Memory chips are brutal — boom and bust cycles are violent and unpredictable. You already have SMH which gives you semiconductor exposure. Doubling down with MU that heavily is a lot of eggs in one very cyclical basket. VWRP at 28% is actually the smartest thing in your portfolio. Broad global index exposure. This is doing the heavy lifting for you silently. NVDA at only 3.16% while MU is at 34%? Interesting choice given NVDA has far stronger fundamentals and pricing power right now. **What I'd actually do with the $10k:** Don't chase something "cheap." Add to VWRP. Boring answer but genuinely the right one when you feel uncertain about what to buy. When you don't know what to buy — buy everything through an index. That feeling of uncertainty is the market telling you something. If you want individual stock exposure, trim MU a little and diversify that concentration first before adding anything new.

ShowerMotor

well you got 200k in one stock and you are nervous, that is your risk tolerance not letting you sleep? then move into an ETF, since its almost free money you could still be in Semis (SMH) or simply de-risk and put it into SPY for it to compound for years. Well done.

ShowerMotor

Because I might have reached the number I wanted and I am just de0risking a bit from SMH, while still being exposed at tech, it's only personal. SMH may as well continue going up for another decade, but I don't want to be greedy.

mcrow5

Space and semi conductors. My PL and RKLB are printing me money, also my SMH

alwayslookingout

If you still believe in the semiconductor sector but want more diversification then just sell some shares and reinvest into a semi ETF like SMH.

Letsliftthisstock

SMH

baseketball

So much talent wasted. SMH

mtol115

Of course this happens when I sell my Asts Puts for a loss. SMH

missedalmostallofit

Right now I’m still adding to AI infrastructure and semis. My biggest convictions are NVDA, TSM, AVGO and the SMH ETF. The thesis is pretty simple: regardless of which AI applications ultimately win, the chips, networking and data center infrastructure are getting paid first. I’m also watching robotics names. If AI actually delivers on productivity gains, I think automation ends up being one of the biggest second-order winners over the next decade. One thing I’ve found useful lately is comparing different investment theses before buying. I actually use an app called Cats of Wall Street (https://catsofws.com/) where different AI “cats” pitch stocks from different perspectives. Sounds completely ridiculous at first, but it’s surprisingly useful for stress-testing ideas and finding tickers I might have missed before doing my own DD. My focus is definitely growth over dividends right now. I think AI infrastructure, semis and automation still have more runway than most people expect.

FunnyReception5375

lol imagine being up “500%” and you’re on Reddit instead of living! SMH

Imaginary_Agent_9123

SMH : $599.83 IV: 50.05 IV% 81% SMH 100 19 MAR 27 (295) 595C 1 Call Cost : $10,900. Your Strike is $330 Would be: 269.83 points x 100 = $26,983 - Premium = Profit. Am I right if you sold it today?

shortvol_trader

good discussion, learned something too. that theta-per-day breakdown on SMH was clean, hadn't seen it laid out that way before

srSheepdog

I figured out the significance of NVDA's CUDA and went big into NVDA as soon as I did (in at ~$15/share). But I'm also the same guy who was GPU mining altcoins and got paid in BTC by the mining pool, and sold my 0.85 BTC at the "high" of $800....SMH

Fuck_boy3456

Why did nobody tell me to buy Dell? SMH.

shortvol_trader

you're right and i understated it — "partially offset" was too conservative. the theta math on a well-structured PMCC almost always favors the short side, your 3x example on SMH is pretty typical. the place where it can flip is if IV drops significantly after you buy the LEAPS. your long leg loses vega value faster than the short calls can recover it, and suddenly the extrinsic you're selling every month looks smaller relative to what you paid. not the norm but 2022 showed this pretty clearly for anyone who bought LEAPS in late 2021 at peak IV. the other edge case is when the stock rips through your short strike early in the cycle and you can't sell the next month without going below your long strike — you end up sitting in the long leg with no short against it, paying full theta with no offset. not a flaw in the strategy, just something to manage actively but yeah in a stable or rising IV environment the "sublet" framing is exactly right. you're getting paid more per day than you're losing

TheInkDon1

I love the way you explained this, especially when you brought in PMCCs, which are my bread and better. But I wanted to tease this out a bit: >the theta you're bleeding on the long leg gets partially offset by the short call you're selling every month. It's been my experience that the theta you're selling MORE THAN covers the theta decay of the LEAPS Call. Have you seen it differently? I was looking at SMH from another thread, so I'll use that. I buy just-barely LEAPS Calls at 80-delta, then sell about-monthly Calls at 30-delta. With those parameters in mind for SMH (and using ToS here AH): The 17Jun27 (385DTE) 465C at 80-delta has 60.74 of Extrinsic value. That's 60.74/385 = 0.158 of theta-per-day. The 26Jun26 (29DTE) costs 13.30, which is its Extrinsic value. 13.30/29 = 0.458 of theta-per-day. 3 times as much. Of course, you have to continually be selling those Monthlies (and taking off at 50% profit or whatever), but basically you've "sublet" your shares for more per-day rent than you're paying for them. I know you know all this, I just wanted to break it down for others who might come along (and maybe for u/judechrist4444 if he ever decides to do PMCCs). And really, to find out if you've ever seen a case where the short-term theta didn't cover the long-term. Cheers!

Sliced_tomato

I’d try on SMH first. That’s what I’ve been doing after a nasty scare on MU - but each to their own I guess!

TheInkDon1

I hope u/MrFyxet99 replies, because this is the first I've heard of this idea of selling a Call that at least covers the Extrinsic in the LEAPS Call. But it makes perfect sense, and I think you've probably quantified and understood it properly. Because that way if you need to exercise, you won't be "upside down." But what expiration ATM Call are you thinking of selling? It looks like maybe the 18Jun (21DTE) 600C? He costs about 27.75 here AH on Thursday. As for "limit order to....", I think he just means to use a limit order so you don't get a bad fill. So for me on ToS right now, that 600C is 27.30 by 28.20, for a Midpoint of 27.75. With your long Call only having 19.52 Extrinsic you'd be fine even if you got filled at the Bid, but if it were close, you'd definitely want to try to get paid close to Mid. So his "even if it has to sit for a while" bit. Oh, and as far as spreads on something like SMH that trades 7.5M shares daily, don't let the displayed Bid/Ask numbers deter you: you'll almost always get filled at Midpoint. Sometimes even a little better if you walk it in with your Limit order. Cheers!

OD_prime

Look into ETFs that use components to build data centers such as semi conductors (SMH, SOXX, FSELX) or memory (DRAM)

__redruM

Yes, I, accumulated 2016-2020, 4k average cost basis. Mostly sold it above 60k. Everything else has been slow steady inertial play up with index funds. SMH was nice, but not 20x nice.

BitcoinMD

Thematic ETFs based on every stage in the rare earth to AI life cycle: REMX, SMH, CHAT

d33p7r0ubl3

SMH put call ratio getting high. We either going lower, or ripping into the atmosphere

tortu995

S&P ytd +10,12% Nasdaq ytd +17,39% SMH ytd +64.12% Nvdia ytd +13,85% Completely regarded, nvdia can't be underperforming almost everything while it's balance sheet obliterates the rest and it's at a cheaper valuation than almost anything.

North_Web_8832

I just got destroyed by PLAB. SMH

Worried_Gain_5191

If you want maximum aggression, SMH rides or dies by its massive 15% top-heavy weight in Nvidia. If you prefer a smoother ride that spreads the love across the whole chip sector, SOXX caps individual stocks to give you better diversification.

PsychoCitizenX

Buy a semiconductor etf like SMH or SOXX and take the guessing out of it.

atoice

Google, NBIS, IREN, SMH, DTCR, DRAM, SOMO, VGT and some international stuff

Muted-Woodpecker-469

Voo is up 30% for the year. SMH, a semiconductor etf is up 150% over this same period Getting to 47% gains in a year is admirable but should not have been as risky as you are ssying

shortvol_trader

The re-entry plan is the part worth stress-testing. You're at delta 0.93 with IV=0.55 and 10 months left. That call is mostly intrinsic at this point — which actually makes the "sell near ATM, re-enter when IV cools" plan more expensive than it looks. You'd be selling something with very little extrinsic, then buying back exposure at a lower IV — sounds good, but you're also giving up the time value you still have on that March 2027 expiry. 10 months of long vega on a semis ETF isn't nothing, especially if SMH continues moving. The PMCC angle is probably cleaner than full exit. Selling a 30-45 DTE call at or slightly above current price locks in partial profit without giving up the position, keeps your long vega, and if SMH pulls back the short expires worthless and you collected premium. If it runs through your short strike, you still profit — just capped for that cycle. Rolling down to 0.80 delta makes sense if you want to actually reduce notional exposure and free up capital. The slippage on deep ITM calls is real, but you're converting unrealized gain to cash and reducing your delta from ~0.93 to ~0.80 — that's meaningful risk reduction if the bull thesis is "slow steady climb" not "explosive move." HODL argument: if you're still bullish on semis and the position is already up $10k, the main reason to adjust is psychological not structural. The call isn't going to zero.

CAFN8TD

Is it 1 or multiple contracts? If more than 1, sell 1 or a couple contracts to close and keep 1 or more (say half) to ride the wave up further. If only 1 contract, you can sell a PMCC a few months from expiry a good bit (25-50%) away from current price to lock in some gains now but also let it ride more and possibly let that call expire worthless. Although SMH could easily go up another 50% by expiration. Maybe check the expected move for multiple expirations on barchart.com and go just above that for a PMCC at whatever expiration makes sense to you.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Bought some SMH today, but this was nothing even close to being a dip. 

Accurate-Flow8078

Is this good entry for SMH/SOXQ or should I wait

IllllIIlIllIllllIlll

Yeah obviously it's part of my DCA, but when SMH gains 20% in a month there's no way I can rebalance without selling some of it. I have no problem realizing gains and not sitting on 20% unrealized gains. I also have no capital gain taxes to it only costs me a couple of dollars per rebalance.

SetRestart

Full port into SMH then dummy

mighty_sys_admin

probably, I like SMH / SMHX though, I have been holding since last year

IllllIIlIllIllllIlll

Nobody is saying to stay in cash. Personally I have a diversified portfolio with multiple kinds of assets: not only equities (quality and momentum factor and a \*small sleeve\* of SMH) but also PM, crypto and corporate bonds, and I have outperformed the S&P500 over the past 10 years not only on a risk-adjusted basis but also in raw returns.

Wide-Contribution-29

Buy DRAM for memory + SMH for the rest of the semi chain. Buy NASA for space. Chill. 

Machine8851

Just look in the companies in some of the semi funds such as FSELX and SMH. The balance sheets and growth are insane. Semiconductors are the undisputed engine of the modern economy.

IllllIIlIllIllllIlll

Just look at the bot campaign for SMH, DRAM and NASA that has been going on. It's half a bots and half a bunch of regards from wsb who want to pump their bags. You will see things such as: "it's a completely new paradigm, it literally cannot possibly go down", posted non-ironically and upvoted. So yeah personally I'm very happy to unload my bags of SMH that I bought before the hype. I'm just constantly rebalancing and raking in profits while idiots are taking loans to buy more of it.

whatsaburneraccount

To think I felt kinda dumb at yeeting 20% of my brokerage account into SMH at $535 like (checks notes) a week ago. SMH indeed

Lakeview121

Selling MSFT. It’s moving too slow. I’m going to spread it out over 4 index funds, SMH, SPMO, QQQM and SCHB.

Wide-Contribution-29

SMH — my biggest winner this year and favorite ETF. Bought LEAPS and it never stops. 

Neat_Database6685

Sold all my lagging ass MSFT and threw it in SOXL and SMH…

VotedOut

SMH is to 2025-2026 as Nasdaq/QQQ was to 1999-2000

Bravo23Zulu

I tend to agree with you however, why is it necessary to explain these charts in the manner in which you have done so. Is it your ‘schtick’ (maybe I haven’t been around the site long enough), your calling card or a way to draw attention to yourself. Just seems very juvenile in an otherwise serious discussion regarding a top in this very frothy market. The puts or a put spread seem to be in order on the SMH.

nobertan

I’m just sat here on SMH watching the world go by, saying that, memory has gone absolutely bonkers. Curious if they’re actually going to seriously ramp capex to meet demand and get caught with their pants down, or continue to drag their feet with slow capacity expansion and cream off the profits.

EpicWhaleSquad

I'm not going to give advice, but BTC is my only losing position at 17% of my portfolio. My returns this year is 33% so far with SPY and SMH. Best way is to be diversified.

Nudge55

No sweat, you've done the right thing. SMH has made me both hit my coast fire number and on top get a house deposit. As a young fella, it has probably saved my life.

nateccs

SMH, today i bought back my LUNR covered calls and then it decided to tank $10 a share...

MrBotANot

Given your stated age, I would suggest more intentional exposure to growth sectors. The goal is simply to grow your capital. Someone mentioned an Avantis ETF and they would be a good source for quality filtered value funds. I like their international funds a lot. I would also make sure to have serious exposure to tech - call it a bubble or not - tech has dominated returns for over 15+ years now and that is going to continue. Higher fees but QQQM, SMH, QTUM, etc. Making a few extra points annually over decades is valuable to your end goal. It sucks seeing red but it will be ok. Markets come back. Recessions fade. Most people don’t take enough risk on early on.

Affectionate-Idea690

SMH...the teacher in class slips a second hint but some were too busy making paper airplanes. It happens 😂

SerMumble

It's good to have layers of volatility by the time you retire especially because it really sucks selling QQQM compared to SPYM during a recession. Buy SPYM and/or QQQM from now on. Cheaper than SPY and QQQ. There are always better performing etfs. QQQM < SPMO < VGT < FMTM < SMH < AIS < DRAM < etc. The difficult part when performance chasing is knowing when too much is too much. You're not going to ruin yourself selling a little of SPY over time to put into QQQM but definitely plan out the taxes before selling. If a SPY share has a short term gain, don't sell it. If a SPY share has a long term gain, that's more reasonable. Taxless accounts are simply amazing for these kinds of rebalancing.

Mouse0022

Buy SMH or SOXX. and just hold. If you buy any individual stocks, can't really go wrong with GOOGL, NVDA, and AAPL. Besides that, VTI and VXUS and chill. Know your risk tolerance. Don't go big into anything speculative. Look at it like lottery tickets, put in as much as you can handle if it went to $0. Don't put in more than you can handle losing. One thing to remember on a red day is that you only lose if you sell. Sometimes you just have to hold onto the ride and ride it out. Don't be a perpetual bear.

slinkysmooth

Yup. It has been great. I’ve been buying a lot of SMH in my 457b since around 2017. I don’t have the stomach for individual stocks except a few so fit right into my strategy. I’m not smart though. I pretty much got lucky at the right time. Didn’t think AI would hit for at least a few more years but glad it did.

jcpopm

You think so? I feel like the war gave the powers that be enough of a pullback to then enter and collectively decide "fuck it let's run with it." The same guys that couldn't stop saying bubble on CNBC last fall are now saying it's a great time to buy SMH up 60% in 2 months.

sunburn74

I own some MU (directly, thorugh MUU, and through ETFs like SMH, DRAM, CHAT, and AIS). Honestly it has run up quite a bit. However the korean market is even crazier.

ShowerMotor

I loaded on SMH many months ago, probably the best investment decision I made in a while. MU is awesome and I saw it a 300, but I dont have the balls to go in size on a single stock, I know my risk tolerance.

PrestigiousDealer399

Paperhanded my 2x800C MU around 840 and jumped back in for 3x860C MU around 857. SMH

__redruM

Wait until you’re near retirement before worrying about dividends. I have a conservative 401k and a riskier taxable. But my retirement account is larger, and won’t let me buy riskier assets (SMH for example or even QQQ). So that set the risk allotment more than preference.

Neat_Database6685

Same moving the $ into SMH, not a loss but kind of a dud compared to…freaking everything else

thethor1231

If you're buying all these, why not just buy SMH?

Diamond_Paper_Rocket

As soon as you close your position I bet the trade flips... SMH, good luck 👍

Suspicious_Lie_3042

I have my mother’s portfolio setup as:  15% GPIQ, 15% GPIX, 40% SCHD, 2.5% STRC and 2.5% SATA. She has a small slice in 10% CHPY (20% drip, 80% buys more SCHD), and the rest is mixed between 10% SCHG and 5% SMH.

AltruisticMaybe7799

I think one more sell off to shake out earlier weak hand bulls with vix spike to 25, then SaaS has it’s time to shine with a drifting upwards SMH

Iscratchmybutt

i have puts on SMH... call me Leopold

Rph55yi

What about SMH and chill? This has far superior returns than VOO over the past 5 years. One of the top performing etfs of all time.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

If MU dips I’m buying more SMH. 

Chuque

True but buying SMH or SOXX at these levels is terrifying. Would rather just buy something more boring like the S&P for now

greenworldkey

\> There will be a 50% or more drawdown in these chip stocks, it’s just a matter of time. The funny thing is you probably would have said this last year as well, and SMH is up 135% in that time. So even after your alleged 50% drawdown (which you're so convinced is coming any day now) you still would have been ahead.

colts_guy

The whole story is whether the earnings are actually showing up behind the capex spend. That's what mattered in 1999. Back then spending ran way ahead of profits for years, which is what turned it into a bubble. Right now NVDA just put up $81B in revenue against roughly $740B in announced capex commitments. That's a very different setup. I think your point on semiconductor pricing is the right thing to watch though. If we start seeing real pricing deflation across the space, that's probably the canary in the coal mine. Until then, the fundamentals behind this cycle are real. This is also why SMH is my largest holding. I believe!

_TheOoze_

Am Bol. Tuesday: 1. Nurse hangover 2. Buy ASTS 5/29 $110c 3. Buy LUNR 5/29 $40c 4. Buy NOK Jan 27 $20c & NOK Jan 28 $20c 5. Stay long CRAK, XLU, DRAM, SMH, AAPL shares 6. Sell CSP weeklies on SPY and QQQ for theta lunch money[](https://www.investing.com/indices/italy-40-futures)

ThisIsMyOtherBurner

lol i shorted SMH like $200 ago and all it has done is go straight up. literally every week i could have sold and i would have more money then i do now

Fearless_Strike5651

Yep I cost myself so much money listening to people like that. In 2023. They were saying the same crap about SMH. And yes smh did dump a handful of times but it’s impossible to sell at the top and buy lower best just to DCA every week

Ok_Speed_3290

Im an etf style investor stocking picking never really worked for me. Heres my set up Voo 70 percent Smh 20 percent Dram 2 percent Nasa 2 percent Remainder in cash Looking to add small position in quantum possibly wqtm,rgti To answer your question directly what i would by and continue to buy is SMH

Atrox_Blue

I have different things in different accounts. I bought my first $20 of Micron when it was like $60/share or something like that and have been adding to it ever since. Sold a while back but got back in. I’ve got SMH around like $150 and NVDA at like $56. NBIS at $89. I’ve got AMAT too, that’s a recent position. That’s all basically other than some other broad market ETFs. Edit: corrected some details after double checking

miguellan

Yeah I don’t think any other semis etf comes close to SMH. SOXX is the second largest and. That offer options. If I use smh native contracts for hedging it would trigger a wash-sale instead though if I were to cash in the puts. I just started holding SMH earlier this yeah. Will do that after they go long term. Thanks for the info!

EpsteinsMarginAcct

JFC… Just give the people what they want and provide some context instead of trying to save face already, SMH