Reddit Posts
Fed, PCE and Big Tech earnings: the week that could reset the AI trade
The stock market is only UP ~55% of the days, why is everyone's suggestions/Portfolios 1 Directional?
After a 6.7% chip crash, can today's PMIs and a 4.7% inflation gauge calm the market?
30K to invest - Oct 19 Market open
Warsh and factories: will today's data force an October Fed hike?
Portfolio Review: 3–5 Year Horizon, Moderate Risk
Anthropic reports $16.8B in 3Q26, up 50% QoQ, $SMH -2% AH, MoM calculation in Post
Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
NVDA vs SOXX, SOXQ, SMH for Long Term (21yo Portfolio Advice)
Let AI agents deploy options bots on paper desks. Worst one: long puts on TSLA/AMD/META/NFLX, 53 tra
US market - VOO or CSPX QQQ or CNDX or anything else?
Gambled my girlfriends account on MSFT and paid off
SK Hynix $SKYH Earnings Shed Light on Memory Capacity and Demand
Chips vs. SPY: SMH +46.89% and SOXX +64.66% YTD — The Performance Gap Is Widening
going all in on “small satellites”
SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Mentions
Put 30% of your money in SMH, 30% in QQQ, 30% in short-dated treasuries and 10% in bitcoin.
I grabbed a semiconductor ETF, SMH as well as some GOOG since youtube should become increasingly dominant.
Wrong sub. Try r/investing if buying SMH is a dream play for you
i just full ported long we are oversold due for a bounce right the 200 EMA on SOXX/SMH RIGHT??
Friedman had an interesting article in NYT today, suggesting the development of AI as the second Big Bang. He makes interesting points. Of course he is not a scientist, but, he travels and talks to a great many well informed people. He has access, in a very wide circle, which most of us do not. He is not a fool. He does not address investments. It makes sense to participate in AI growth. I’m just a casual user of ChatGPT. Happy to subscribe, great information. I’ve been long XLK, SMH, MSFT, NVDA
Finally AI-buildout is slowing down. $CRWV bond collapse, slowly bleed \& push it to bankruptcy. Other Neo clouds follow one by one. Like BearStern \& Lehman, it took 6 months to realize , 12-18 months slow bleeding for market see recession bottom. All rogue agents now show that buildout is over for 99.9% performance improvements of 99.5% population. Many semi in $SMH unwind one by one.
Yeah, it's the SOXX/SMH collapse people should be looking at. They broke very long multi-year supports and didn't show much bounce (unlike the Leopold liquidation day). Heck, the main thing even holding up the Nasdaq toward the end of the week was runs on CRWD and PANW because of the whole phpshell incident.
AstroZan on X 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 #𝗪𝗧𝗜 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗧𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗨𝘀? 𝟭𝟬/𝟮𝟰/𝟮𝟲 🔴 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀 — 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 The monthly #WTI chart shows oil testing a powerful, long-term descending resistance line originating from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) oil price peak. Following that historic top, WTI established a lower high after the COVID dislocation, followed by a third lower high in April 2026. See the three red circles marking these major tops. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Why should oil suddenly break above this multi-decade resistance when the Iran conflict, at least in its current form, has not produced a disruption comparable in scale to the GFC or COVID? 🔴 𝗧𝗵𝗲 $𝟭𝟬𝟯 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 — 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗥𝗵𝘆𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴? WTI is currently trading near $103, a historically important price zone. Notice the horizontal red line connecting three major resistance tests. Each previous encounter was followed by a significant price breakdown. 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸, just as oil bulls anticipate a geopolitical breakout on renewed Iran war fears? The chart suggests the risk may be to the 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗗𝗘, not the upside. 🟢 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲, 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹! Friday's price action in $SMH, $SOXX, and $DRAM supports the broader bullish equity reversal thesis. Remember: 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. On Friday, semiconductors demonstrated relative strength. $VXN behaved better than $VIX, while $SOXX and $SOXL closed positive despite the VIX remaining near 20. This is a 𝗕𝗨𝗟𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗛 𝗗𝗜𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗚𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗘, suggesting that underlying market strength may be developing even as fear remains elevated. 🚀 𝗠𝘆 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 $𝗦𝗠𝗛 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝘀 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴! My custom $SMH coiling/compression indicator currently shows compression 𝟮𝟱𝟬% 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 than at the March 30 bottom. It is also 𝟮𝟬% 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 than at the July 29 bottom. This degree of compression suggests 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗟𝗢𝗦𝗜𝗩𝗘 𝗨𝗣𝗦𝗜𝗗𝗘 𝗦𝗤𝗨𝗘𝗘𝗭𝗘 𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗞 heading into next week, particularly if the bullish semiconductor signals are confirmed. ⚠️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗦𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼 𝗜 𝗔𝗺 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴: The principal short-term risk to my bullish outlook is an unexpected escalation with Iran, potentially involving a sudden, decisive, one-and-done military operation or leadership-targeting strike. Such an event could trigger a 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗵, followed by a 𝗦𝗔𝗠𝗘-𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝗩-𝗦𝗛𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗗 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬 as the initial panic subsides. This will keep the long geometric structure in tact with a daily price wick. One speculative political scenario is that @netanyahu and @realDonaldTrump could view the approaching elections as a narrowing window for decisive action. Should Netanyahu lose his bid for another term, a caretaker government could face greater political constraints on launching further strikes. 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼, 𝗺𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗮 𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗱 𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗹, rather than a sustained breakdown. 𝗠𝘆 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸: 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗵 #𝗪𝗧𝗜. 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘀. 𝗨𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗦𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗲𝘇𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀. I will discuss the $SMH chart and its extraordinary compression setup in a separate post later today.
I bought more of SMH.
SOXX/SMH really looks identical to the classic bubble pattern with all the phases clearly market. This is it. SOXS will print millionnaires.
Have you beaten the SMH ytd? I doubt it, if so, AI investors are already way ahead of you, they’re currently 4x ahead the SP500 investor.
Nah, its just the word thats used to describe an object that goes around one's neck. SMH
Held out hope till the last minute but it’s looking like these puts are officially dead. SMH
QQQ/SMH green. I think SPY can flip green
I also bought some SMH at the same time. Think it's down about $50 from where I bought. Hard to predict the bottom!
People celebrating the overnight markets. SMH
Thank god you said this. “Merely”. SMH. Disgusting. This is HUGE!
I think I am going to start adding to semis after watching the 50dma hit a slope of a zero on a daily based on SMH
Yes, this is the disconnect. The new batch of models like Fable, Astra and especially Opus 5.5 are absolutely amazing, unlocking so many new capabilities. Where we are now is already mind blowing, but we know that the frontier labs already have far better models internally (like Bel). This will disrupt almost every business in the world (and if you don't get disrupted you'll simply go out of business). I just don't see demand for AI and semis go down anytime soon. This is just way to powerful. As Dario said "country of geniuses in a datacenter". We've seen this already play out with Navier-Stokes. And we'll see more results soon in practical areas like physics and biotech. Also the security angle - yes, AI is and will be used by nefarious actors to hack whatever they can (we just saw it with what some call Black October). The thing is that the only defense will be your own AI watching all activity at all times and be ready to act, autonomously, as soon as an attack is detected. I think this is a classic shakeout. I've got about a million riding in AI-adjacent stocks (mostly semis and GOOG). I bought some more SMH earlier this week, yeah, I wish I waited a bit, but in any case I remain bullish. I've still got almost half a mil in defensive equities like SGOV and BRK.B, thinking about trimming that to double down and go into more AI with that as well....or maybe not...
Bro wrote this with ai SMH
Market would be blood red as soon as I buy micron. SMH
Last time I saw AI Jensen dance, SMH -10% next few days.
That’s been around for weeks. Markets been resilient to it the whole time. But today SMH wants to drop 6% on no clear reason or news?
Fun fact: SMH is officially at bear market today again. lmao
When I actually follow my rules I do good but I always abandon them for some reason. SMH
Every time I look, SMH is lower
SMH is totally oversold, most orders and backlog are through 2028.
I've already lost all of my gains for this week..... SMH. Not sure about this one. Are you still holding?
Kospi & SOXX/SMH are the bear flag to hell break below its jover
Gee whiz - another casualty. This is like once a day now. SMH. The stock market is not a get rich quick scheme. You gamble the house usually wins…in the end. Shouda dumped everything on SpaceX today and come out with a small profit.
The most risk you should take is buying and holding SMH in hopes of 30% annualized performance. Do not day trade.
Have Europoors never heard of country music? SMH. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=753s16pcFEs
🤷♀️I have some SMH I’ve held forever not the first time they’ve died at earnings
The underlying shares are sizable. 10% of my portfolio. I also just significantly sized up. Added a debit call spread, and then a sizable OTM spread on SMH expiring next week.
Society doesn’t need high-end rogue AI models anymore. Current models good enough for performance improvements of 99.9% population. As AI debt load collapses, many banks & funds. Spending slow down No new spending means, semiconductors crash hard $SMH $STX $MU $SNDK $CRWV etc
Both OpenAI & Anthropic high end models reach to a point of overbuild Rogue agents. Probably AI build-out is over, where 99.9% population’s requirements can be met. Going beyond, misaligned with society norms. $SPY $QQQ $SMH $CRWV $NBIS time to be real & get correction soon.
What kind of a correction or downturn should we expect or plan for in tech? Supposedly when/if this ai bubbie pops, what kind of pullback are analysts thinking of for various tech subcategories? 1) MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, 20-percent? 2) memory like MU, 30-, 40-percent? 3) ETFs SMH. VGT?
https://preview.redd.it/q02ipah13nwh1.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=573d2abafe8a78f7be0a571daf4bdf513cce4242 Oh no non no when will they lern SMH my head
I'm not a TSLA bull. I am an SMH bull. SMH companies are growing top and bottom line, TSLA is not. But that doesn't mean TSLA is not building AI models and then incorporating them into their products.
run a regression of TSLA and SMH tell me the correlation
So you purchased whore's weave and now you act surprised that you got AIDS? SMH FR 😤
So you purchased whore's weave and now you act surprised that you got AIDS? SMH FR 😤
We would be up 50% ytd if we invested in SMH
Planning to invest 30K spread across the following stocks today: MU GOOG SMH AVGO ORCL NVDA AMZN WDC/STX New investor here. Any advice from seasoned veterans? Any other stocks you’d recommend?
17 can be a reasonable thing IF they're adding value and not dilution. Like I have a cluster of biomedical stocks because they all are looking at good phase 3 releases in the near future. But a lot of this just looks like you've decided something looks shiny and added it to the pile, in a fashion where it looks like you're trying to diversify into everything, which makes it not that much different than just...sticking with VOO/VT or such. Some of these are also arguably inferior versions of other things. SFLO is likely better than AVUV. CHIPS superior to SMH and so on. Some things just horribly under perform without offering much at the moment.
SMH +5% week incoming after a retarded sell off
Hey boss I'm gonna need some that SMH ATH with extra spicy sauce
I just need one good week for SMH so I can get out of all my risky retarded calls/positions
SMH has had 10, -8% or more weeks in recent times, and it bounced back 8 out of 10 times, averaging +4.7% the following week.
SMH has had 10, -8% or more weeks in recent times, and it bounced back 8 out of 10 times, averaging +4.7% the following week.
Yeah I should have just called him regarded and to get addicted to drugs instead like the average comment here. SMH
SMH, with a healthy dose of SNDK.
Willing to bet next week SMH will be bigly green +3% to end the week at the least.
So SMH has had 11 -8% or more weeks in recent times including this week, and it bounced back 8 times out of 10, averaging +4.7% the following week?? I say, my AMD 565c are going to print this week. Not to mention, zuck will pump the market by dissipating Capex concerns.
How? So 100% VOO is the answer to investment success? Not even a combination of VOO, VGT, SMH?
I'd give it a 7.5/10. Love the consistency, but I think you're making the portfolio more complicated than it needs to be. 1. Is 17 tickers too many ? I'd consolidate. VTI already covers most of those sector ETFs. Keep SMH, AVUV or VOE if you deliberately want extra exposure, but there's a lot of unnecessary overlap here. 2. Should I add bonds at 29, or is gold plus a yearly review enough? Yes, I'd move XLI, VFH, XLV and VCR into VTI. You're already getting exposure to those businesses. 1. At 29, with a long horizon, I wouldn't feel obligated to own them. Gold isn't a bond replacement though. More important is whether you can stomach a 40% drawdown without selling. 3. International is only about 5%. Too low? 5% is pretty light. I'd personally look closer to 15–25%, although a US-heavy portfolio isn't automatically wrong. I'd probably simplify to VTI/VXUS as the foundation, with a few deliberate small/mid-cap and semiconductor tilts. The $1,100 every two weeks is doing more for your long-term wealth than having the perfect allocation anyway.
Your core can be simplified entirely to VT, VTI, or VOO. As for your aggressive satellite allocation, I’d stick to a maximum of 5 symbols and try to minimize any overlap. Your best bets here in my opinion are AVUV, SMH, QTUM, and NLR, but be careful about sector thematic ETFs. A strong argument could be made to just buy SMH there.
You’re saving for 2 years just to blow on an expensive car? SMH.
More red next week. Looking at poolling result, current administration does not have the motivation and mood to pause the war and restrict the oil price anymore. USO $200+. SMH back to $450.
Iran war is literally covered calls on QQQ and SMH. I will feel unhappier if QQQ straight to $800.
It’s more so SMH that is really hurting
I am always ready for this market to reverse. But the Nasdaq broke a trend line for the first time in 4+ years, rallied back to it, and fell back down. We shall see. The SMH saved itself similarly, but then fell back into a lower channel and is now threatening to fully collapse. Monday will be telling. The counter-ternd rally falling apart after a single day so spectacularly though is more brutal than I think we all want to admit atm.
$SPY $QQQ $MU $SMH $NVDA $TSM $ASML Nothing burger, AI not going away
SMH, Coreweave and MU etc still above yesterdays lows... Our only hope
Largest inflow to semis ever recorded this week $SOXX $SMH
SMH straight $700 in 2 months. It is surreal to see Cramer destroying Burry's portfolio.
Down 5% this week, but still up 11.88% YTD. SMH 🤦♂️
AND she knew how to line dance. If she only knew the "jerk two guys off at once" dance this all could have been avoided. SMH.
SMH. Any similarities here boyos? https://preview.redd.it/z1qgqj0fulvh1.jpeg?width=1264&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5897f0419f40317310db2675367355f5054d27fd
Insane 1000 people upvoted this lol. It didn't disappear, it was just moved elsewhere. SMH.
Interesting how you take "the bait" of comparing yourself, by an imaginary sense of superiority, over others, to that of a worm. SMH😒
Well when a journalist from Barrons can write an article on a Chinese HBM chip maker CXMT having better memory chips can tank the semiconductor and AI stocks makes you wonder if he was short SMH or DRAM. One article and one trillion damage so far…can I sue Barrons? Smh
Staring at numbers on a screen all day isnt hard work. Literally sat on your ass in a computer chair. Just a sign of the times. One person loses another gets wealthy and its called work. The guy that lost was working too somehow... SMH.
Been saying the bubble burst for months, and the SMH is at +63% YTD.
SMH and other AI stock charts look like they are about to leave complacency and enter anxiety…
Society don’t need high end models. Current AI-models good enough for performance improvements of 99.9% population No need to spend anymore, until get ROI from last 4 years spending AI debt load collapse many banks,spending slow down No new spending means, $SMH $QQQ $SPY crash
SMH and SNDK, trying to add during the dip
Just SMH Likely down 7 days in a row, in the past, such pattern always leads to superb 3+ month outperformance, including the one episode on 02/27/2001!
Lol overdramatic market we already priced in two hikes. Lol...and because of energy inflation rises higher SMH....calls bitches.
Although I don't doubt your possible timeline. It confounds me that Trump asked for an expedited recommendation and there's a possibility that his hand picked ALJ drags it for a month or two. SMH
Then how do I breathe? SMH 😤
Honestly I dont know what will pump, I am just putting in everything. Either of QQQ SMH IGV has to pump up if they decide to pump the market. I just dont know which it will be.
I have individual stocks but you can get a safer exposure to same through QQQ IGV and SMH.