Reddit Posts
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
New to US market, Need advice for SIP in Tech Etfs
I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.
Add more on Monday? (Added $40k on Thursday)
How do you evaluate infrastructure stocks beyond surface level AI hype?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
It’s a dang shame I took $22 and turned it into over $1100. SMH sure wish I would’ve bought more of this.
TSMC earnings lifted the whole semiconductor sector
24 - Give me stocks for an AI play long into the future. Rate my portfolio
China to Approve Nvidia H200 Purchases as Soon as This Quarter ✅
2025 Recap: Silver +139%, Critical Minerals +86%, Space +65%, Gold +61%, Semi +47%, Nuclear +47%, AI +44%, Quantum +33%
YTD 2025: Silver +164%, Critical Minerals +94%, Space +67%, Gold +70%, AI +50%, Semi +50%, Nuclear +50%, Quantum +35%
Eternal question. Buy the market now, or wait? Got rid of my individual stock portfolio and decided to get back into ETFs
Should I (would you) sell VGT/SMH/FTEC/XLK and maybe MGK and just buy something else?
Should I (would you) sell VGT/SMH/FTEC/XLK and maybe MGK and just buy SPYM or something else?
Is the "Dot-Com" Setup to 50% Complete? - Crypto Tax-Selling, The Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc., Ukraine War and the BoJ Trap.
Is the "Dot-Com" Setup to 50% Complete? - Crypto Tax-Selling, The Authors Guild v. OpenAI Inc., Ukraine War and the BoJ Trap.
Stock and ETF portfolio with real world utility for the next 40+ years
Mentions
SMH at ATH premarket??
SMH and SOXX +10% tomorrow
The S&P500 is probably the best long term choice in your portfolio. Nasdaq 100 and SMH would simplify your individual holdings. Your portfolio is approximately ~75% tech and ~55% S&P500 top 10 stock concentration. US large cap Broad market index: 23.7% S&P500 (SXR8) € 23.7% . S&P500 or Nasdaq 100 tilt: 44.1% Amazon 11.9% Broadcom 7.6% Google 9.2% Microsoft 7.7% NVIDIA 7.7% . SMH tilt: 9.7% TSM 7.5% Marvell 0.6% Micron 1.6% . AI cloud: 1.2% ServiceNow 1.2% . Regional indexes: 14.1% Japan (IJPA) € 7.1% Korea (FLXK) € 7.0% (majorly samsung and SK Hynix tech stocks) . Materials: 7.1% Gold (IGLD.DE) € 5.1% Silver (XAD2) € 2.0%
Here is what I would do: **10 Years left for Retirement** - 50% VOO - 35% VGT - 15% SMH Rebalance every year **20 Years left for Retirement** - 30% VOO - 45% VGT - 25% SMH Rebalance every year **40 Years left for Retirement** - 80% VGT - 20% SMH Rebalance every year
Wait - 6.5 years later and you think the baseless tyranny was due to a virus no one can prove exists? Wow. FOIA requests for proof go unanswered \[look up Christine Massey\]; Canada loses in Patrick King vs the Crown when the defendant of a social distancing ticket asks Canada for proof the virus exists; and the former Pfizer Chief of Science, Dr Michael Yeadon, says it was a gigantic hoax. But no, let's believe Trump 1.0 and the mainstream media - they are both so reliable. SMH.
I had been expecting the correction but it still totally caught me by surprise. I thought it was going to happen further into data center investment concerns.. I agree with OP because the ai/chip market sells off every few months or so and no one wants to touch it and then when it recovers it does so rapidly and then moves higher but this time it isn’t… which makes sense because everything is so hyper inflated. ARM hitting $400/share?? That is bananas. These stocks have a long way to fall.. there just needs to be another catalyst. I think im gonna buy some put leaps on SMH. That motherfucker was bringing in so much money but now it is like the pope trying to bury his turds on a frozen pond with no arms or legs, because ponds do not have bodily appendages.
In reality if the war ends the market goes flat or down because inflation goes down. I mean look at how SCHD preformed prior and SPY SMH and SPMO were flat for a year before the war. Was this all just a squeeze?
Could be. I chose SMH and FLKR for my concentrated semis exposure. I’ll keep buying SMH and FLKR on drops, and averaging into FLKR routinely.
SMH LEAPS have been insane for about the last year. I’d consider pairing with DRAM LEAPS. Keep cash to buy dips though.
The plan: fullport SMH leaps but with a stop loss at breakeven. Why doesn't everyone do that? Seems foolproof.
Still holding, so by extension I believe it’s not too late. The case in brief: do you think we’re closer to the beginning, or the end, of the economic processes that have driven SMH’s growth? I’d say: almost certainly the beginning. You should always be evaluating the competing opportunities for every investment dollar, but for my money, tech is still the best investment opportunity the American economy has to offer, and SMH’s components are “selling the shovels” to tech.
> Meh. 20% is underwhelming considering the risk. You would have done better with a 0DTE SMH call. If you think the risk is similar on an overvalued meme stock and a 0 dte, you belong here.
Meh. 20% is underwhelming considering the risk. You would have done better with a 0DTE SMH call.
Same sized position here also in an IRA which makes it easy, obviously. I broke the 50k into smaller chunks adding to existing SCHB and SMH positions which sorta kinda balance each other out risk-wise and also added a couple new tickers. I totally get sidestepping NASDAQ shenanigans for now (and most likely forever). There are too many good alternatives and it’s easy to swap around in an IRA.
It’s all the same to me. SMH will just swap in those Chinese companies at that point.😝
When is MSFT reversal SMH
Exactly, buy SMH with full margin
# Deep OTM puts on SMH Tuesday Power Hour.
Unless you have any other positions, you did not purchase shares. You purchased calls that expire January 15, 2027. That does not mean you own the underlying stock as an asset. You have a contract right now, not a stock. SMH 🤦♀️
Long as the SMH is above is 21EMA (which it is now) the market will be full steam ahead
SMH back to ATH please and thank you
After insane run ups in April and May - you all are losing your minds over a 2.5% pull back. SMH
You guys have one little trillion dollar corrections and you freak out. SMH 🤦
NGL been way more successful ignoring news and financial shows on TV and just trade off price action. Been able to remove completely the "markets should be doing x because I think y" mindset has done wonders. It doesn't matter what I think the market should do so those days are over. AMD and MRVL puts yesterday and today at open has been glorious and even took some QQQ puts at around 2 when it failed key level. Have AMD MRVL and SMH runners left.
This. I got Stopped out of my SMH position the other day (been holding it for several months) because I had a Trailing Stop of 12% with a GTC order.
Meet me in SPY, its goin down Meet me in SMH, its goin down Meet me in Gold, its goin down Anywhere you meet me, guaranteed to go down
Retail is exit liquidity once again. SMH
Why do we all get treated like IREN bag holders? SMH, so unfair
why not SMH - that’s going to move far faster.
I have a limit buy order on SMH pricing in a 15% drop and another one on a world etf for a 10% drop. If you don't go long today you deserve to be broke.
Ha. They tickled my 65% SMH bag. Suckers.
\>SMH put-buyers are going to force market-makers to short the stock LOL. You paranoid. Those folks don't even have enough money involved to change the price of SMH away from equilibrium. They can't force the entire market to do shit.
I canceled my order. Tops 170 and order trigger in queue probably at 160, and then by the time I trigger a sell, the system will process it at 140. The smart money will pounce on us. SMH
Also QQQM, SMH, and a few more I can't think of
It all depends what your tradong plan is obviously. Agreed with the VOL being high, but it's OK to buy like a 15 wide call spread out of the money. Defined Risk and you don't need the stock all the way back . I also have been doing Super Bull Spreads on exaggerated pullback.. like MU today. Selling a put spread to finance the out of the $$$ call spread. I also did one on SMH.
I'll raise you Semiconductors & Hardware Architectures \\\* SMH \\\* SOXX AI Software & Cybersecurity \\\*IGV Energy, Power Grid & Infrastructure \\\* XLU
SMH about to erase a 7% decline and turn green.
SMH about to erase a 7% decline and turn green.
Sold my SMH position at +2% today because this green pump felt fake. Not a ber but hopefully not dumb bol
Even bigger red candles now than Friday for SMH and XLK.
Trailing Stop Triggered for SMH. Wonder if I will regret setting it in the first place.
SPY is already at record levels past 700 and people think this is a 'bloodbath' SMH
SMH will still close green. Yesterday was the largest put buying ever on semi’s
I don’t know why o bother with stocks. VOO QQQ SMH and forget it. They only go up
Talked myself out of buying SMH and bought CRWD last Friday. FML
Just curious. As an holder of shares i was bewildered last week that SMH was fairing much worse than some of the main companies it's comprised of. Do you have any opinion? I'm a new holder pf SMH, and the whole idea of asynchronous movevement is interesting to me.
SMH will do well for many, many years. It will still be doing well in the 22nd century. Technology will never go away, it will just continually improve and evolve.
SMH was only up 52% YTD at the time of your post. The 72% I cited was in half the time. That’s my point.
RACK Came too late and also doesn't seem to have exposure the types of things that will go explosive. It has dipped a bit and will likely slowly start to climb. Will probably stay a thing over the next year. DRAM is the most likely for outsized performance but its also the one that will knock back the hardest. SMH I think is starting to test its limits before people will expect real numbers to back the valuations. Also remember that chip technology increases potency over its life, but AI only needs to be "so good" to mostly correctly answer the average persons requests so the footprint to AI delivery ratio is going to get smaller and the expectation of AI prices to reduce as competition increases and older models satisfy needs will crunch on profit margins. The AI boom is a temporary boom and I estimate will go the way of the internet service providers - eventually price competition will come when there enough models that do "good enough" to get buy. We aren't near that yet, Claude seems to have a firm grip on things. I feel like we are pretty much already priced for 1 to 2 years out. Over the next 10 to 20 you will see the efficiency squeeze, so I don't expect DRAM / SMH / MU to keep bringing the heat over and over again, it will cool off. It may not ever pop, as I think they are capable of expanding to meet the demand, but profit margins will decrease. You'll see more transitions like NVDA to stock buybacks and higher "dividend" payouts as they convert to stable cash giants instead of massive growth engines. The next move I think is coming up with cleaner energy solutions to feed these data centers as they are already causing power resource problems. I don't think this will be a massive trend as there aren't massive returns in this market, but innovator and leaders in these sectors will get a nice boost of returns if the solutions are built right. I think of Data centers like real estate, but a real estate that exponentially extends vertically, so your 1 story becomes a 10 story becomes a 100 story. Pretty soon, you need less horizontal real estate, so there will be big data center buy in, but in 10 to 20 years the data center business will be a cut throat price competition of thin margins as processing power improves. Bottle neck will eventually become rare metals and resources. Maybe not in our lifetime, but wars and planetary exploration will ultimately come down to that - finite rare earth minerals and metals. There will always be demand for Chips and processing power, so its not something that will likely ever massively pull back, but price may recede if true price competition becomes an issue. At that point it will be which companies continue to innovate that keep the ball moving forward, vs the ones that become Nike and start falling year over year until they reach a fair valuation. For long term Minerals -> AI platforms -> Hardware -> Energy is my priority idea of where the big gains still lie. Data centers will be very profitable for the next 5 years, but past that - the replacement cost and real estate to efficiency ratios may start to take a toll. We shall see. That's my2 cents
You have to prompt it to check the charts/pricing daily and ask if it has any input on its trade. I was gonna fund it with $1k but I messed up and now I gotta wait to transfer the other half. It’s wants to do 60% SMH and 40%TQQQ and I gave it 6 month time frame to grow it as fast as possible and it advised me to have it check prices and charts when I can
With the SMH and SOXX reclaiming more than half of fridays decline today, likelihood of ATH this week is extremely high
SMH up 6% and you're not slamming QQQ and SPY calls? Literally free money
SMH and DRAM will be at ATH by Wednesday. Most people will just watch it happen though
7 trillion on the sidelines. Nearly every bit of them are severely underweight AI memory and semi’s. You will not see a pullback in the SMH that isn’t bought back up with a couple sessions
SMH up 0.1% on European market
IMO, The best are VOO, QQQ and SMH
Oil Algo jokers jump on every rocket & missile to make volatility, it’s not old Oil market anymore. Index has only 2% energy stocks. USA consume~20 million barrels of Oil per day. USA produces ~ 13.5 million barrels per day Canada produce ~6 million bpd Venezuela~1 million bpd,peak capacity ~3 million bpd How much US- GDP impact by Iran &Ukraine war? OPEC bump again $XLE $SPY $QQQ $XLC $XLK $XLF $XLU $SMH
If you like someone and you don’t act on it, biggest coward How do you even look at yourself? It’s like never closing out your option position for a gain. SMH
QQQ VOO SMH keep the trio
DRAM SMH DELL BB feel kinda dumb but I didn’t want to just sell but I mostly bought in case it would dip more…
SMH already dropping
USA consume~20 million barrels of Oil per day. USA produces ~ 13.5 million barrels per day Canada produce ~6 million bpd Venezuela~1 million bpd,peak capacity ~3 million bpd How much US- GDP impact by Iran &Ukraine war? OPEC bump output again $XLE $SPY $QQQ $XLC $XLK $XLF $XLU $SMH
World was never calm last 100 years, social media nowadays highlights & amplify more. Market digest it and move on. $MSFT $META $NVDA $GOOG $AAPL $AMZN $TSM global tech sector use by whole world, 8.5 Billion population. BigTech combine revenue over 2 Trillion. $QQQ $SPY $SMH
I've been patiently waiting for $SMH to go sub-$500. Seemed impossible a week ago, but looks possible by EOW.
I'm hodling til Mu hits 3000$, then i'll sell all the memory stuff and only leave some in SMH.
my plays for this upcoming week: SMH puts, USO calls, buying BTC and ETH
Then sell deep otm SMH like this maybe. https://preview.redd.it/g42lwpb0yp5h1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f23752cb63dd20d745ec6f9ee046516c3059797
Wash the macro out of your brain. Flows > macro Call skew on SPX was 100th%ile Call skew on SMH was 100th%ile Avgo “miss” caused a cascade in semis. Ndx and spx are weighted. Tech weighted. When baskets of **levered** etfs sell off it can bring down the index. Customers were short puts at the 7415 SPX strike and it acted as a magnet for price.
I'd consider SMH a satellite, not part of the core. It's a theme ETF with 26 holdings, not a broad market index. And I'd also count your individual stocks as satellites. That'll give you a more realistic view of your core/satellite ratio (i.e., your overall balance between broad market diversification and focused concentration). Nine stocks also seems like a lot for smaller positions, but it's probably not a bad place to start. Over time, as you get more familiar with these companies and figure out what you like or don't like with each, you might want to put more focus into the ones you've got higher convictions in. Otherwise seems like a solid setup... I'm not a huge fan of theme ETFs, but that's the beauty of the C&S portfolio - so long as your core provides broad index diversification, you can basically do whatever the hell you want with your satellites.
50% loss (im a dumbass and my diversification strategy was full port into 5x leveraged CFD of SMH and micron)
Buy the dip of SMH or Soxx shares only
SMH özelinde, yarı iletken sektörünün son dönemdeki güçlü kazanç raporlarına ve AI kaynaklı talep artışına bakarsak, OTM put'ların maliyeti ve getiri potansiyelini iyi dengelemek gerekir. Bu tarz bir korunma stratejisi, piyasa koşulları ve şirketin temel dinamikleriyle uyumlu olduğunda daha anlamlı sonuçlar verir.
I'm still up 30% on SMH after today
Stress test is right mathematically for the vol assumption it made but the test assumptions are wrong in first place. For the Aug expiry, low gamma puts - factoring 100% vol upside, vega and vaana will show that kind of PNL mathematically. On top of it if broker use BSM, it assumes constant vol surface. In real-world a 10% drop in SMH will never expand the back-month, 75-day implied volatility curve by 100 absolute points in a single session. The front-month might spike by 10 or 15 points, but the back-month curve experiences heavy volatility dampening (the term structure flattens). Is this by default stress test in ibkr ? Then it's really bad.
That looks like it is assuming volatility doubles (volatility +100% listed on the top as an assumption). Volatility did not double in SMH. Those puts were like $165 OTM at the start of the session. Not exactly what comes to mind when I think of protective puts.
Minus 3%? The fucking Nasdaq just dropped 5% intraday, SMH just had a -10% day.
I felt it in my gut to buy MSFT puts on Monday but I chickened out SMH
I’m watching SMH doing the same
June 2027 mostly but some Jan 2027. DRAM, MU, MRVL, SMH and AAOI
loaded up SMH/EWY puts at the close, please no TACO
Stock market is still ATH. Although SMH already corrected today. One more such day, SMH will be in bear market, which brings us back to only 3 weeks ago. Wall street earned so much in March down, April and May surge, and now June crash starting today. Their portfolio chart is like US debt chart.
Dividend stocks were green. I sold JPM and trimmed UNH so there is a 99% chance they open 3% up Monday. I’m going all VOO, VXUS. Then SMH when it’s appropriate.
Happy I sold CCs on my SMH shares and will reap the premium on 06/18. I'm saving dry powder to buy more early next week if it keeps dropping. Finally a chance to hop back on the Semis train.
75 and 80 TQQQ puts were fucked today ngl. Grab some 70s at open and ride the wave I lost 37K today while have SOXL, SMH and TQQQ puts… 🤦