Reddit Posts
Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
NVDA vs SOXX, SOXQ, SMH for Long Term (21yo Portfolio Advice)
Let AI agents deploy options bots on paper desks. Worst one: long puts on TSLA/AMD/META/NFLX, 53 tra
US market - VOO or CSPX QQQ or CNDX or anything else?
Gambled my girlfriends account on MSFT and paid off
SK Hynix $SKYH Earnings Shed Light on Memory Capacity and Demand
Chips vs. SPY: SMH +46.89% and SOXX +64.66% YTD — The Performance Gap Is Widening
going all in on “small satellites”
SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
New to US market, Need advice for SIP in Tech Etfs
I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.
Mentions
I think you are trying to apply logic to markets which generally doesn't work. More so in non buy and hold strats. Just simply go back and look at SMH days and see what ADBE, or really most SAAS companies do when SMH is up or down. I held CRM and ADBE puts earlier this year for really good gains so I was constantly watching. When the AI trade was pumping, SAAS went down. When the AI trade was pulling back, SAAS went up. They are inverse trades. At the end of the day short any SAAS is just long AI.
I love me some SPCX. I thought about SMH, but I went with BOTT & ARTY instead.
nice plan but especially the QQQ/SMH and 6% single‑name (NVDA) looks like over‑concentration; consider upping the large‑cap core to about 90% VOO/VTI and putting the 10‑15% into diversified growth or international; keep a bond ladder for the 40‑year‑horizon and test your 10‑year trailing rule against a realistic drawdown before you lock it in.
80% S&P plus QQQ plus SMH is the same 10 companies wearing three different tickers. and the january rule means you'll cut the tilt right at the bottom, nice system
80% S&P plus QQQ plus SMH is the same 10 companies wearing three different tickers. and the january rule means you'll cut the tilt right at the bottom, nice system
This is a thoughtful plan, especially the spending rate, long horizon for your dependent, and precommitted rules. My main concern is that the “tilt” may be less diversified than it looks: the S&P 500, QQQ, SMH, and NVDA overlap heavily in large-cap tech and semiconductors. I’d stress-test the whole portfolio—not just the tilt—against a long stretch of U.S. large-cap underperformance, a major drawdown near retirement, and the dependent’s needs. What bond allocation and cash-flow plan would protect the retirement date if stocks fell hard in years 7–10?
SMH vs SOXX is like the chocolate ice cream vs vanilla with chocolate syrup debate
Age is the central question. Or brass tacks, number of years you plan on living, I suppose. In any case, this portfolio doesn't make much sense. 8% QQQ? Why bother, considering the overlap. And OP cites NVDA as a single stock, but it's the biggest position in both QQQ and S&P. Just pointless. /u/Inevitable_Abies_777 not trying to slam your concept here, but it's just fussing around the edges. If you're going risk-on, just VOO it up, or if you're looking for a reason to actively oversee it, 90%+ VOO with a splash of individual SMH components. Otherwise, you're better off derisking from the S&P, not leaning into it. Take a lesson from the train industry—the sign is a big RXR—as in, do not cross Risk and Retirement
you are pretty heavy nvda, SMH is a large part of QQQ and SP500, NVDA is the largest part of SMH
>QQQ and SMH add the chip-making and memory layer the S&P under-owns Semis are \~20% of the S&P 500. Do you really call that "under-owned"? Compared to what? I see that you're going all-in on AI. I understand that. I believe AI is a revolution not a fad. But the reason why semiconductor stocks have risen so much is partly due to a supply shortage which has caused margins to skyrocket. Micron's gross margins have traditionally been near zero. Now they are 75%. Even if revenues will stay permanently higher than they used to be (and I think they will), margins will not, because high margins attract new supply. Memory chips in particular are a realtively simply component that will be commoditised. Nvidia is a great company that will do well, but their 75% gross margins are not sustainable either. They hail from a time when there was no alternative to Nvidia (because of CUDA) and almost all GPU use was training rather than inference. Mass market inference will not permanently pay anyone 75% margins. So while I believe in the AI story in the long run, I think we are in an extremely unsual phase of this development. Capital investment in this technology is at historical extremes as a percentage of GDP. Only the railroad boom in the late eighteenhundereds is comparable and could yet be dwarfed by the AI investment boom. I'm not predicting a crash and I have no idea about timing. But while you can ignore normal business cycles when your investment horizon is 10 years, I think you cannot ignore the historical dimensions of what's going on right now. This is highly unusual. In my opinion you are way overexposed to semis. You're doubling down procyclically on the one part of the AI industry that's currently profitable. If AI is to succeed then others will have to benefit from it as well and semiconductor margins will need to come back to earth.
as you approach retirement you should really be turning to wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. SMH and single stock picks are great early in your investing career but can easily take a 30-40% correction right as you're closing in on retirement. I would dump those 2 allocations specifically and move to more stable positions like SCHD or DGRO or even bonds.
6/10. Diversify at least 25%. 25% on VXUS. 10% QQQM. 10% SMH. 55% VOO.
Your overall approach seems reasonable given your 2.8% spending rate and long investment horizon. But a few things stick out to me. QQQ, SMH, and your individual stocks add considerable concentration to technology and semiconductors already heavily represented in the S&P 500. You acknowledge the risk of another technology bust like the one following 2000, but limiting your additional tilt to 20% doesn’t account for the exposure already embedded in your core holdings. The AI investment thesis is plausible, but enormous capital spending doesn’t necessarily translate into superior stock returns. A lot depends on how much future growth is already reflected in valuations. Lastly, you may want to focus more on managing sequence of returns risk as retirement approaches rather than waiting until three years out to begin shifting toward bonds. Overall, you’re in a much better position than most. Congrats, and good luck on your journey toward a comfortable retirement!
NVDA: 8% of S&P 500, 9% of QQQ, 22% of SMH, 100% of NVDA Numbers not exact but watch for concentration risk.
I’d keep Bitcoin at about 10–12% and trim a little from VT, then add a 3–5% position in a high‑quality semiconductor ETF like SMH or a diversified tech ETF like QQQ. To hedge against a 40–50% market drop, put a small cush‑er in a low‑volatility bond or money‑market UCITS‑compliant fund—those are hard to liquidate but provide a safety net while you still chase upside. Also double‑check the tax rules for crypto in your country; selling can trigger a tax event even if capital gains are nominally exempt. That’s a balanced way to boost risk‑adjusted return without blowing the diversification that keeps early FI realistic.
somebody needs to hear this. I Bought Broadcom at IPO for $20 made a little bit of money and cashed out at $40 to build my website. It wasnt a big investment, I turned $1k into $2k But my lord... SMH Roast me.
You are aware that donors could just donate the stock to a charity instead (and have always been able to do so) for the same tax benefit, and that the only thing that's changed is now they can give it to an individual newborn to help with their education? Oh, you weren't? Figured. SMH this thread is filled with completely financially illiterate people who have no idea how anything works and have never had to do a tax return more complicated than the 1040EZ in their lives.
USA is buying diesel from Russia SMH
Yeah there are tons of bear signs on the Semis: Nvidia getting rejected by its bullish breakout and the SMH/SOXX midline rejections were pretty telling. Lots of murmurings going around about the CapEx supercycle has peaked.
But Lindsey Cook may have filled out her mortgage application incorrectly. SMH
SMH, shitting the bed, but AMZN is really going for it.
Imagine having enough money to do anything you want and that is what you want to do. SMH
If SMH dips another 1%, I’m loading up calls. But, that’s my dumb ass move.
Dude you make footlongs for other men. SMH
If it does how much would AI and simi stocks drop? SMH and SOXQ are up around 100% in the last year. Even if they dropped 70% (which would be insane), they would still be doing better than the SP500.
Yeah, I got that one so wrong. SMH.
now and in the past I have been well invested in SMH, DRAM, SOXQ, CHPS, etc etc and these have all generated significant gains.
I’d sell throw into QQQ and SMH and retire.
One russian got sick and they're now worried about a world pandemic or something, idk. SMH
I think a somewhat better option is to be using strategic puts and collars to hedge, ideally on SMH, QQQ etc. Jsut remember that hedging is insurance; you only hate having it until that oooooone moment you're so glad you do.
The real move is passive, long term, investing. Stop trying to time the market and be happy with what the S&P 500 returns. We’re up 14% YTD. If 14% isn’t enough for you add some risk. I have SMH, and VGT on top of VOO and I’m up 25% YTD. The only trading I really did to get that is buying the March dip with about 30k.
this discussion is pointless, the majority of SMH is in SPY
What are you talking about? Why don't you just say - semiconductor sector or leaders. SMH - some of its holdings have little to do with SPY.
Read the english. SMH strengh is carrying through choppy market which is the market not SMH.
So your moving the goal post? Lol You have stated SMH all this time.. Cmon man
Type in SPY its at new highs. I mentioned >rates drop are good but it appears SMH strength is enough to carry through chopping market. Hence why we keep making new highs
Go to Google. Type SMH stock. Compare June 22nd to today.
rates drop are good but it appears SMH strength is enough to carry through chopping market. Hence why we keep making new highs
Due to one man the market is choppy. If the rates drop - what do you think would have happened to SMH? It started from tariffs..
Do you mean July? SMH was up about 10% last month.
We just had a correction in SMH too, down 25% last month
When economy crash at 10yr at 5.3%, what tools Fed has ? Look 90% sectors are in recession, excluding few make vibe for AI spending push. Any time spending like QE, market goes up. When interest rate high, how long debt load push high, at negative cash flow. $XLK $XLF $QQQ $SPY $SMH
just put a shit ton more money in SMH, we'll all be in the fucking thunderdome with no jobs but another easy 20-30% more upside in the next 6 months
because the ones raising money are mainly hyperscalers their rates are lower than then 10 year and many bonds have been issued so they are not being affect by day to day change unless they need to issue new debt which would likely be next year. Compared to IWM companies that constantly need to issue to supplement cash flow. It is a different story. SMH components are making $ from the hyperscalers. They have much less need to raise money and investors are willing to open their pockets for them.. You can see MAGS getting outperformed by SMH.
Check out SMH and SOXX, some more concentrated exposure to semis. SMH has lower expense ratio. Both have outperformed VOO etc in recent history. People will say semis are cyclical but I’d argue that heuristic stems from the pre-AI era when Nvidia etc weren’t household names. That said you also get exposure in broader funds and the performance gap will probably converge over time if AI and hardware continues being integrated into the economy.
Bought a lot of SMH and am happily up around 20% since then
yeah SOXX is more diversified, SMH is mostly nvda/mu, i still think mu and nvda have some juice left
SMH is a good pick to not get left behind AI and semis, I'd avoid dram doe
I would do VTI for 50%, VUG for 20%, SMH for 20%, and 10% for individual stocks that you have high conviction. So that you have a core VTI holding, with the other 50% exposed to high growth sectors capturing the AI and tech opportunities.
Taxable account my goal is to not sell. I am 65% in VOO and 35% NVDA, GOOG, MU, IBM. I’ll take a few shots here and there but for the most part this is the plan. If you like etfs, I like SMH. Others ran up more this year but I like smh. Toss a few bucks into a space etf.
Thinking of shorting SMH if it opens green tomorrow
Semis ran up but I think SMH is great and throw a little money into a space etf as well. I would imagine 15-20 years from now several of those companies will make people rich.
And ain't a nan a one of them cute, hot or sexxy. SMH!
I invest in VUAA CNDX IUIT SMH 0 tax for me
$SPY $QQQ $XLF $XLK $XLC $XLY $SMH $IWM see earnings soon. Vix spike to 25 at earning. Cash flow negative for many. AI-ponzi spending. Big corporate debt load, cost more to service at higher rate. Earning suffer, as jobloss spike, consumer spending down
SMH turned the 618 fib into support earlier this week and now its making the 786 its btch
SPY too overweight with underperformers. SOXX or SMH instead
look at the SMH and SOXX etfs. TSM for broad semi coverage, MU or SNDK if ur a high volatility degen, AVGO if you like AAPL because its a boomer stock basically. most of the others are memes that ran ahead of their earnings way too much and trade at crazy valuations, and swing way harder without the earnings to back them up.
All i had to do for riches was fullport SMH a year ago. But nooo 'cyclical bust' and all that. Turns out that will only apply starting november when the bubble pops.
Sell all 30000. Save that 962K while you can. Buy SPY, VOO, IVV, XLK, QQQ, SMH. Don't open your portfolio next one year. Thank me after 1 year.
I aint reading that... but SMH is going a lot higher ✨
tf pump just getting started folks SMH heading to 735 next resistance zone
train is leaving the station folks next step SMH 735
SMH is literally infinitely more stable today than the Qs just because of fucking GOOGL.
>I am betting on future revamping the US electrical system and full electrification The need for this would have to align with a belief that AI datacenter buildout will continue to scaleout for the foreseeable future. In that case the better investment is SMH SOXX and more energy focused AIPO. I think you're going to find that in many of those engery ETF's there will be a lot of dead weight (espeically in TAN). In the semi space, you have companies selling products and services backed by IP and at high margin; whereas energy is a commodity. Sure you will see some earnings growth in energy, but ultimately it cannot scale that fast and is fractured (as in many share the pot). Individual big winners sure, but ETF will water them down by a lot, that broader index is better long term.
The concentration profile would matter more to me than the fact that it has recently outperformed. A broader semiconductor basket can behave very differently from SMH when one or two mega cap names are driving the sector. I follow individual chip moves more tactically on Moon sometimes but for an ETF I would care much more about the weighting methodology.
QQQM is an easy answer. SMH if you believe AI will continue to be a major theme (I think it will).
SMH! My DIL is very similar…. At all cost!
FSELX or SMH - just look at the AAR since the 80s
Interesting ETF. I like that it’s more spread out instead of 20% in NVDA like SMH.
Implied move down from 10% to 7% while SMH IV sits in the 30s, so the market's pricing a quieter event than last time. How are you structuring it?
Imagine arguing with L'mady SMH
Implied move for the last earnings report was 10%. I saw SMH IV in the mid 50's to low 60's. Now the implied move is the 7% figure you quoted and SMH IV is in the 30's. With everything going on; you'd think vol wouldn't be that low for this event. Long vol doesn't seem like a bad idea.
Ffai.... SMH what a disappointment. Glad I got out... bkyi is my saving grace right now.
| Time ET | Report | Expected | If ABOVE expected | If BELOW expected | |---|---|---:|---|---| | **8:15** | **ADP private jobs** | **+72K** | 🔴 More hiring → yields may rise → **QQQ/tech pressured** | 🟢 Weaker hiring → yields may fall → **tech relief** | | **8:30** | **Core PCE MoM** | **+0.3%** | 🔴 **Biggest danger.** Hot inflation → yields/Fed expectations ↑ → **QQQ, SMH, AAPL, DELL ↓** | 🟢 **Best outcome for tech.** Inflation cooling → yields ↓ → tech potentially ↑ | | **8:30** | Headline PCE MoM | ~**+0.4%** | 🔴 Inflation hotter, especially problematic with expensive oil | 🟢 Inflation pressure easing | | **8:30** | Core PCE YoY | roughly **3.3–3.4%** | 🔴 If materially above that → stronger “higher-for-longer” reaction | 🟢 Below that → favorable for bonds/tech | | **8:30** | Per
We are literally going to need rehab centers for Claude crackheads once the bulbbe bursts. SMH.
May as well just buy SOXL or SMH
SMH or QQQ calls?
SMH or QQQ calls ?
In March I bought 78 shares of SMH and I’m up about $16k on that alone. I don’t sell often, so I don’t have a lot of powder for dips, but if you’re going to time, you buy the dip and sell the ATH.
I am short QQQ and SMH. That is fine after record gains. The difference is, I did not go full retard and only allocated 1% of my port, and I think that's excessive. Also, I am long UMC with 5X and some green 2027 leaps.
SMH last 5 years: 372% AVGO last 5 years: 623% Lagging the semis rally?
SMH calls and SPY puts maybe?
I don’t know why your question got downvoted so much, reasonable ask. Keep the balance in your ETFs, etc, but my recommendation would be to pick a semiconductor fund to take advantage of the AI boom: XSD, SMH, etc.
That extra detail helps. If your wife is still working and you file jointly, don't assume you're ineligible for a Roth IRA just because your own income is a disability pension. There are spousal IRA rules that may let you contribute based on household compensation, so I'd confirm how you file and how your pension is reported before ruling the Roth in or out. On the portfolio side: yes, VT can absolutely be "risky enough." VT is still essentially an all stock global portfolio. It owns thousands of companies across the U.S., developed international markets and emerging markets. It's diversified, but it is not conservative. The important distinction is: 1. Diversification reduces the risk of making a few concentrated bets. 2. It does not remove stock-market risk. So if you hold 90–100% VT, you're still taking substantial equity risk. You just aren't also betting heavily on semiconductors, Nasdaq growth, small cap value and emerging markets ex-China at the same time. If you're just starting out, I'd probably begin simpler. Use a broad market core until you understand why you want a specific tilt. You can always add AVUV, SMH or something else later. What I wouldn't do is choose extra concentration just because it feels like a faster route to building wealth. A simple portfolio can still be very aggressive.
Before changing the portfolio, I’d check one tax issue first.Since you’re retired on a disability pension, make sure you actually have taxable compensation that qualifies you to contribute to a Roth IRA. Regular pension/annuity income generally doesn’t count as IRA compensation, although some employer disability pensions can be treated as wages until minimum retirement age. Check how yours is reported before funding the Roth. On the portfolio itself, I think you’re mixing up “aggressive” with “concentrated.” AVUV, SMH, QQQM and EMXC give you exposure to: small-cap value,semiconductors,Nasdaq/growth,emerging markets excluding China. That can absolutely be aggressive, but it also means several very specific bets at once. You don’t need those bets just to have a high risk/high-growth portfolio. A broad market portfolio that is 90–100% stocks is already aggressive. If you want tilts, I’d start with a diversified core and then add smaller satellite positions only where you have a clear reason to want the extra risk. The phrase I’d be careful with is “build quick.” More concentrated funds can outperform, but they can also underperform for long stretches. They don’t give you a reliable shortcut. I’d also look at whether four months of emergency savings is enough given that your mortgage is about 40% of your pension and you no longer have employment income to fall back on. So I’d do this in order: 1. Confirm Roth IRA contribution eligibility. 2. Decide how much emergency cash you really need. 3. Choose your broad stock allocation. 4. Only then decide whether AVUV, SMH or other tilts deserve a smaller place around that core.
Might want to consider SOXX or SOXQ. SMH is top heavy because it let its winners run, whereas the other 2 rebalance. Most of SMH's gains come from NVDA which is priced in for perfection now, not much room for it to moon anymore.