Reddit Posts
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
New to US market, Need advice for SIP in Tech Etfs
I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.
Add more on Monday? (Added $40k on Thursday)
How do you evaluate infrastructure stocks beyond surface level AI hype?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
It’s a dang shame I took $22 and turned it into over $1100. SMH sure wish I would’ve bought more of this.
TSMC earnings lifted the whole semiconductor sector
24 - Give me stocks for an AI play long into the future. Rate my portfolio
China to Approve Nvidia H200 Purchases as Soon as This Quarter ✅
2025 Recap: Silver +139%, Critical Minerals +86%, Space +65%, Gold +61%, Semi +47%, Nuclear +47%, AI +44%, Quantum +33%
YTD 2025: Silver +164%, Critical Minerals +94%, Space +67%, Gold +70%, AI +50%, Semi +50%, Nuclear +50%, Quantum +35%
Mentions
> NVDA trailing P/E is around 40. Cisco peaked at 200+ in 2000. PE is meaningless at top of a cycle. Look at PS and it is about 20 for NVDA, 35 for the equivalent CSCO moment in 2000. > Big tech AI spenders are generating real cash flow. Pets.com was not. Pets.com was small and irrelevant. The big CapEx spending was done by JP Morgan, Coca Cola, Ford, Walmart... They all had FCF, but at some point just decided they had enough networking equipment. > Microsoft, Google, Meta are posting actual revenue growth from AI products. Negligible when compared to the CapEx numbers. And anyway, you think telecom companies were not showing revenue growth? My positions are puts on SMH, NVDA, SOXX; calls on SSG, NVD, SOXS.
Pessi trynna cheat. SMH
You’re learning the wrong lesson here. You can’t know when the top is in. You can’t time the market. You buy and hold long term. That way you will end up selling for a profit. Maybe switch to ETFs? I like VOO, QQQM, and maybe SMH. I’m: - 60% VOO - 30% QQQ - 8% SMH - 2% DRAM
i just do etfs like SMH VGT QQQM to get most of that covered
SMH and DRAM are up 49% and 89% respectively year to date. Get a grip.
All the semis & memory stocks are moving together so I fail to see how $SOXX, $SMH, or $DRAM is doing any good diversifying. I think all these stocks will continue to move lower until all the leveraged ETF's both long and short work themselves out. Which means they may going bottom until many people just give up. If you just have 1 position like $SMH; it's prolly good as any of the individual stocks. I just had 3 ETF's $SOXX, $DRAM, and $EWY over these last 3 months. I have a lower position in semis now than I did a week ago. I needed a fresh start so I decided to DCA what I just sold into SK hynix and TSM over the next year. But I am not going to put all that cash back into semis right now & go all in right trying to time the bottom.
yeah i'm struggling right now. tempted to sell my SMH from this last year and let FTEC do its work and then buy some specific stocks. but everything's so chaotic right now I can't choose, so I may just hold the cash for a week or two.
trying to figure out if i should dump SMH and just lean on my tech etf for a while.
Loading up on SMH whats the bottom fellas?
$NVDA $SMH $QQQ Watch margin call at close Bigger semi market cap at risk
As of right now I am currently priced in at a fair stock value for both investments; ACB for MU being 582 and ACB for SMH being 501. So far I am up tremendously and see no need for withdrawing. If the market were to collapse due to the falters I would withdraw my gains as cash and hold onto it for the short term until the market re-corrects itself, then place my funds into VOO. If memory and semiconductors falter, the entire market will be affected I believe, so it would be wise to just hold onto liquidity at that point. As far as supply increases goes, it has been certified by numerous industry players that there is lack of supply and extreme demand for the next upcoming 4-5 Quarters. I don’t see it being an issue until the supply has caught up, which will take a couple years.
Adding so much more SMH and QQQ. Everyone I see crying is all in on individual stocks.
The market is broadening. Mega cap companies aren’t dragging the market like they have been. You really can’t compare what it has done the last 10 years to what it will do either. Also having the bonds can be super useful right now. Using it to buy something like SMH that’s down 13% over the last month.
I would use the bond to purchase more aggressive funds that are down or have lagged recently. I would dollar cost average that bond over to something like SMH right now with it down almost 13% over the last month.
$SPY $QQQ $SMH loading on red Choice between war and midterm , if market go big red means, GOP loose midterm , they try to pump even beg to withdraw all troops
Nothing. Wait and see how Google Earning is like next week (Wednesday). If its good and it pump then maybe we start buying. Right now its best to stay on the sideline because I don't think the sell it done yet. VIX should pump next week too so it may take SPY down with it too. Right now only QQQ and SMH is down. SPY is pretty much fine.
The pounding of SMH and DRAM continues until the weak hands are shaken out completely. Then they will watch in despair as it rockets back up again (only to inevitably buy it back at new all time highs).
I don’t see a SMH rally happening..
the bubble has popped. chips are in a full sell off. many of the big names in SMH are down 35-40% from the ATHs
yup, I just added this morning to SMH
hey guys i was doing TA with my crayons and i saw that SMH/SOXX (Semis) are making a Head & Shoulders Top, Based on my calculations of overnight trading value they are set to open and break the neckline which gives a downside target of 20-25% thank you for listening
It's over bulls... market has clearly shifted and bears are in full control now Just look at SMH....So much more downside...holy shit
Should have stayed on the sideline….but I just had to scratch my itch of “what if?”…….SMH
The AI buildout is predicated upon a lie, that Token demand is unlimited and growing exponentially. Also, that AI will cause massive downsizing, and lower labor costs. META and XAi both just bailed on AI buildout, CHINA is advancing cheaper and cheaper solutions. Businesses can't find any significant cost savings yet. SMH will fall 90% more, and still be overpriced
A lot of stocks have taken a 50% cut and you’re waiting for it to drop more. SMH
Or.................. maybe semis are just taking a breather after rallying 85% ($SMH) since January.
its funny calling the bottoms, nobody knows, have your trigger targets and either add or trim. I need another 5% down on SMH to add more
Oh I am with you, I am big in SMH, plan to buy more if it keeps dumping. Mr. 50% up there was probably refering to some BS crypto or Sandisk/MU that are near 40% down.
There is too much money, today compared to yesterday, from people that have absolutely no idea what they're doing. Now, add to that AI trader bots. SMH. I'm pretty conservative, most of the time going in for the long term and I have nothing against people making money scalping and everything is so hyper accurate. It's literally insane. BOOYAH! 🚀
QQQ and SMH hurts alot but SPY haven't really feel anything yet. With VIX this low and it expired next week. Plus OPEX tomorrow then I think SPY will dump next. Start from next week after VIX expired. Tltr: SPY is Bear's next target. Start from next week.
How many stop using smartphones for Iran Oil ? In social media age, war feels like my backyard. This war noise like Ukraine war. Stick to big earnings. Can we stop using smartphones? Can we stop using social media? Can we stop using streaming? Similarly we can’t stop using AI ? More semi demand in future. Big red days buying opportunity for $SMH
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $550.00 (below) | $593.40 | $566.64 | -7.3% | Jul 19, 9:31 PM |
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $550.00 (below) | $593.40 | $567.04 | -7.3% | Jul 19, 9:31 PM |
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $550.00 (below) | $593.40 | $567.14 | -7.3% | Jul 19, 9:31 PM |
SMH and SOXX keep breaking resistance, only down from here
What the hell was that spike on SMH
We are entering a time where markets usually go down, sideways and opportunities show every single midterm year. This stretch starts now up until september-october. A dip in SMH of 20-30% is a gift. MU or sandisk can drop 50% (mentioned this here a while ago and people laughing, we are close to 50%). Overall the trend is up, and this correction is healthy.
$DELL $MU $SOXX $QQQ $SPY $NVDA Can we stop using smartphones? Can we stop using social media? Can we stop using streaming? Similarly we can’t stop using AI ? More semi demand in future. Big red days buying opportunity for $SMH
Are we dcaing into SMH or nah?
people were asking yesterday if it is possible to IGV and SMH to go up at the same time. Well today we found out they can go down at the same time
Lots of crying. Casino hasn't even been open for more than 30ms. SMH
SMH up 56% ytd and DRAM up 101% and bers celebrating hovering near ATH at start of earnings season as a win.
yeah and with capex still expected to increase marginally. i think i will sit on cash until mag7 earnings, might jump back in if they do increase capex. i'll be going with SMH this time around though, i don't ever want to hear the word "Korea" ever again...
Alright give me a reality check: 50% of port hyperscalers + apple 50% or port SMH can this shit blow up unless there’s a recession?
Semis are also a nightmare rn we’re all tied to the same narrative of capex. I keep dcaing into the SMH dip but it keeps on dipping
So my question on the topic, IF you are correct, is what the community thinks about if they were going to add one additional chunk to their positions in this sector, what would they grab? DRAM/SMH, or a specific stock like MU/TSM etc? I'm considering adding a small extra amount somewhere just in case, that I don't mind losing or waiting a lot longer on, but need to think on what that is.
**BanBet Lost** — /u/SetRestart (0W - 2L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▲ | $589.36 → $648.30 | +10.0% | 1w | Lost |
what's a sweet price to buy SMH?
Mods busy sucking each other off rather than starting the new thread. SMH
Want to sell my SMH and never think of it again. Keep my little positions in NVDA and AMD and walk into the sunset.
SMH is up 62% YTD, what are you saying recover?
there's only so much you can push DRAM and SMH around
$SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLK big ER time There are 12000-20000 target attacks on Iran, market digest and move higher. By strong earnings Few more even 1000 times more , does it make difference to market ? Big earnings drive index high. By $NVDA $MU $META $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT and so on
$GOOG $MSFT $META $AMZN expanding datacenter infrastructure. $SMH $QQQ All hyper scalers buying components from $NVDA, $MU, $DELL, For AI infrastructures All are going to spike more , red days buying opportunity
Sold my 2 MSFT 0dtes for 260%. Helps ease the suffering from SMH.
SMH, QQQ and DRAM head & shoulders pattern ✌️✌️
SMH trades like a penny stock and it’s an ETF, insane
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▲ | $648.30 (above) | $589.36 | $600.92 | +10.0% | 11h 27m | | **Record** | 0W - 1L | 0% | - | - | - |
Definitely not. They are only in the same sector (technology), but SMH focuses on semi’s and AIS focuses on AI bottlenecks basically. It’s weighted for SK Hynix and Micron right now when SMH is still like 17% in Nvidia (AIS is like 3%)
good call. im replacing my DRAM with SMH instead. they move in the same direction anyway. I still believe there's money to be made in pure memory but just don't want to think about Korea all the time. I think I reached the limit of my tolerance. best of luck to you
selling DRAM and buying SMH for broader exposure and less Korean volatility instead. DRAM does nothing but catch the downside from both Korea and the US.
Sold about 500k in SMH yesterday and put it into AIS. Hopefully won’t regret in a few years
Probably going to go up in July $SMH looks like it. $TSM is stronger though.
I kind of agree -- I got this report for $SMH which should help in quanitfy and put a right trade around it -- [https://app.erina.ai/r/u0lJEyXkXX](https://app.erina.ai/r/u0lJEyXkXX)
I just buy VOO, QQQ and SMH. That covers ai and tech and other sectors I don’t care as much about. Then some VXUS for diversification. I don’t understand the panic after a 1-5% dip after a 200% run up
I hope you guys are ready for what's coming. I showed you guys a crystal ball prediction from someone who has been outperforming $SMH over the last 12 months, and you guys downvoted me over a typo. I hope you guys will be ready in Q3 for what's coming after July Opex. I highly recommend reading his piece from Dec. 19 (it's going to be very relevant for Q3), as well as the three other articles that he has published since then. He has another scheduled article looking into the second half of the year, scheduled to go online Friday night.
What's happening is not a selloff. It's just normal market movement. You can expect tech stocks to be more volatile than other stocks. I just took a few profits in SMH and trimmed my positions, which usually means it's going up tomorrow.
How many semi in $SMH make revenue like $IBM ?
SMH below the 50, AI trade needs ASML and TSMc to crush it this week
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▲ | $648.30 (above) | $589.36 | $606.99 | +10.0% | Jul 15, 11:53 PM | | **Record** | 0W - 1L | 0% | - | - | - |
Hilarious. They bent over backward to give Micron everything they wanted for their new facility, but they want to stop the very reason Micron needs to build out that new facility. Politicians...SMH.
is there a software ETF like SMH for semis?
This is the right thing to watch. NVDA green while SMH and SOXX lag is narrow leadership, and narrow leadership is historically the fragile kind. Broad participation across the chip names is the healthier tape. The concentration point is the real risk too, if the index only rises because a few names do, you're barely diversified even in an ETF. Are you tracking equal-weight vs cap-weight to gauge how broad it actually is?
$SPY $QQQ $SMH $XLK big ER time. There are 12000-20000 target attacks on Iran, market digest and move higher. By strong earnings Few more even 1000 times more , does it make difference to market ? Big earnings drive index high.
What are your thoughts on my situation. Last week I inherited 1000 shares of Citi stock but my grandpa bought it back in 2004 when it was $500 a share and it’s $140 rn. SMH first world problems
Broadly I'd suggest you model out bear/average/bull cases for all your liquid assets (you can do more than just 3 cases such as -10 -20 -30 -40 for "bears") and use that to help determine what is the maximum nominal drawdown you'd accept on QQQ. Then you can liquidate an amount that makes this nominal drawdown amount improbable to impossible. The larger the weight of QQQ, the more impactful it is and vice versa. But truth is if QQQ crashes, everything goes down with it. Top 10 weights in SP500 and NAS100 are getting closer and closer to matching with each passing year. In other words, the most successful and profitable companies are concentrated in tech. NAS100 is no longer the risky index from 25 years ago, it drives the modern economy. I'm retried early as well. I still have individual stocks to liquidate, and pushing proceeds into VOO QQQM SMH SCHD VIG VYM JEPI QQQI. I have high conviction on the individual stocks so just converting when I feel it's advantageous to me. But it's your money, and if you feel like playing crystal ball with it is the best choice than by all means go for it. You're asking here because I'm assuming your fudiciary didn't suggest the panic sellout route.
$NVDA $MU and many in $QQQ , $SMH, in 2026, spike hyper scaler already assigned 700 Billion spending, semi memory and tools already got PO , just they need to realize revenue each quarterly
$NVDA $SMH $QQQ $SPY who knows, possibly Iran war go longer like Ukraine, market digest it and move on with strong earnings
$NVDA $MU $SMH Semi has Zero impact by war, next 2 years. They got helium from last 30 days opening for 2 years supply.
And using ETFs like SMH, QQQM, XLY, and SPMO to get exposure.
$SPY $QQQ $SMH Life without internet Life without smartphones Life without AI, soon impossible
AVGO and NVDA are a very outsized part of my portfolio due to their gains (over several years to decade adding). I am slowly liquiding portions when I feel it makes sense if from taxable account or just trying to cut at near term highs rather than at lower points in tax advantaged. I still believe both will continue to outpace the SP500 for years to come. But regardless of conviction, it's foolish to be too heavily concentrated because you could be wrong and anything can happen. But I still want exposure to semi - so my funds go to a mix of VOO QQQM SMH SCHD VIG VYM and a little bit to QQQI and JEPI.
$SPY $QQQ $SMH AI infrastructure never stop for Middle East
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▲ | $648.30 (above) | $589.36 | $595.95 | +10.0% | Jul 15, 11:53 PM | | **Record** | 0W - 1L | 0% | - | - | - |
This is the most balanced take I've seen. NVDA alone doesn't make a healthy rally—I'm watching SMH and SOXX just as closely.
Least I’ll make some money on my SOXS hedge. Oof. Glad I’m mostly out right now. Although the 10K I left in SMH is getting fisted.
The Elon Stan contingent out in full force here. SMH
Norwegian players forget how to play soccer whenever they get into the box SMH
Splitting it into compute/memory/foundry/equipment is the right way to think about it - these don't all move together and the timing on each is completely different. One thing worth looking at alongside individual names is SMH, the semiconductor ETF - it holds NVDA, ASML, TSM, MU and the rest in one package. $1.8B flowed into it just last week, which suggests institutional interest hasn't dried up despite the run. Technically SMH is sitting around $611 with the sector already up about 68% this year.....whether that means expectations are fully baked in or there's still room is something everyone has to work out for themselves 😄 Just observations, not financial advice\*
VGT or QQQM are my main long ETFs. If you wanna be even riskier I hve done great with SMH, but I don't know if it can keep growing at the rate it has
Serious question: did VanEck called $SMH etf on purpose of smh abbreviation, or is it pure coincidence? Wen will we get $IIRC $FML or similar?
meanwhile analists saying that a low PE with high priced stocks usually ends up badly. I am deep balls into SMH and I believe AI has a long way to go, but I have no balls to touch memory.