Reddit Posts
Gambled my girlfriends account on MSFT and paid off
SK Hynix $SKYH Earnings Shed Light on Memory Capacity and Demand
Chips vs. SPY: SMH +46.89% and SOXX +64.66% YTD — The Performance Gap Is Widening
going all in on “small satellites”
SOX just hit bear market territory. This earnings week is make or break for semis
38M Canadian with Defined Benefit Pension: Looking for Honest Criticism of My LongTerm Investment Plan
AI still looks strong long term, but I am watching the whole chip sector now
MU puts bought in large size 7/2/26. SMH puts 7/6. Will Apple receive approval to buy chinese memory chips? If yes that would explain
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Rally into July 44th and July 17th, Q3 20% market correction, October melt up.
Is $DRAM the greatest ETF ever created objectively?
Are Semi-Conductors worth investing in at this point? Tech?
Critique the direction of my 14yo son’s Roth IRA we started this year
How does this mixture look for my 14yo son’s Roth IRA?
Roast/review my portfolio. AI, Semis, Infra + ETFs. 40M, Europe. Rotate into Nasdaq?
Is it too late to get into SMH?
If you’re young, increase risk until you are 100% you’ll hit your goal!
Semiconductor shorts pile on as winning trade reverses - CNBC
The market panic looks overdone follow up- choppy ahead of CPI, but positioning is improving
RACK Vaneck New ETF Is the new future Growth like DRAM or was it just another overhype?
The market panic looks overdone - Korea, SMH,SOXX, VIX, Jobs, and Oil
Should I trim my AMD position? Looking for thoughts on this portfolio reallocation
Space companies - The real underdogs
I am trying to buy calls, but this stock keeps going up. SMH. Is this the next MU?
Forced to sell early because I had an exam @2:00 SMH
I want to diversify significant NVIDA position into AI specific ETFs- How would you think about this?
After 200% gains - i’m out. (B-B-BUBBLE!)
32 y/o Canadian Investor , Need honest suggestion please.
Aschenbrenner Blinked
I feel like it’s very difficult to get a read on the AI trade… (chips, smh, intc, bubble)
Straddle rule between similar but no identical ETFs like SMH and SOXX
NVDA beat earnings, semis rallied hard, and institutions spent the day selling calls into strength. What does that tell you?
Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 trades with the SEC His tracker's been live since March 5th It's up ~78%, even with the delay Today the portfolio was rebalanced to match his latest trades. Screenshot from: Stock Insider App
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F just dropped Check this out, this is absolutely INSANE. Every major name. All brand new this quarter: SMH VanEck Semi ETF – $2.04B NVDA – $1.57B ORCL – $1.07B AVGO – $1.01B AMD – $969M MU – $584M TSM – $535M ASML – $494M INTC – $159M
Actual performance of Leopold fund Semiconductor PUTS
$20k in SMH - thinking of selling the ATH and going all-in on MU or NVDA before earnings?
You don't have to make up losses from the stock that caused them
Can someone ELI5 why SMH would be a better investment in the current market than a 3X leveraged ETF like SOXL?
Anchoring Bias. Why is it so hard to buy GOOGL & AMZN at all time highs? Why do we chase 10x underdogs over proven winners with 1x upside?
SMH Other Subreddits are so behind on the news cycle
And Another Ai Bubble = SMH. ( this isnt normal)
Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?
New to US market, Need advice for SIP in Tech Etfs
I wrote a full thesis on why AI hits white collar jobs first and credit markets next. Here’s my position.
Add more on Monday? (Added $40k on Thursday)
How do you evaluate infrastructure stocks beyond surface level AI hype?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
How's this ETF portfolio for a 15 year monthly investment plan?
It’s a dang shame I took $22 and turned it into over $1100. SMH sure wish I would’ve bought more of this.
TSMC earnings lifted the whole semiconductor sector
24 - Give me stocks for an AI play long into the future. Rate my portfolio
China to Approve Nvidia H200 Purchases as Soon as This Quarter ✅
Mentions
Heavy concentration in SMH/FSELX. Cant complain. It got me where I was before that!
For me, 45 DTE is still short term. 120 is better, 180+ is better still. You still have convexity, but less convexity. I do like to pick wide OOM bear spreads for initialization. LT expiries are more expensive up front though, so you can narrow the bear spread a bit if that is an issue. My logic is that is that when own stocks with the most quickly ramping earnings and margin, I have to put up with a ton of volatility, especially overnight and Asia but I don't want to be forced to sell. If the spot drops all the way through a spread, like it did with SPCX and RKLB recently, I mostly just close them, sometimes roll, because I always have layered spreads. If spot drops through the spread, you already made most of the money, and you have lost convexity. But, I don't like to default to rolling because the best time to sell spreads is NOT the best time to buy them. I plan to permanently run with at least 5% of the value of my portfolio in bear spreads, unless the bottom falls out, then I may go straight long again. Because of this, I want to minimize the cost per day of hedging. Year-DTE bear spreads are even better, but again cost more up front. With layered LT expiries, you can afford to wait for great times to buy them, when the sun is out, when stocks are hitting new highs on fierce volume, when MTUM is ascendant, when call interest >> put interest, when there are no massive put floors right underneath the price. Most importantly, when IV < HV. If IV == HV, then I think the options are still underpriced. Black-Scholes models assume a random-walk Gaussian distribution, which is plain wrong. Actual forward distributions are much narrower than Gaussians and have much longer tails on both sides. The market dramatically overestimates the time that the spot will stay in a narrow range. If IV<< HV, on a stock, that is a juicy price. So wait for rallies to find firesale prices on LT puts. No one is forcing your hand. The middle of a crash is a bad time to buy bear spreads, but with 4-12 months DTE, that's fine, because you already have them. I always have a spread because I never expect a security to fall by 50%, though it happens, so why not make it cheaper? With this setup, your portfolio is the equivalent of a Poor-Man's VIX structure. This means you would just flat out buy SPY and buy a SPY bear spread or put at the same time. This is arguably cheaper and better than buying VIXY. I probably have some SPY bear spreads, but I like to concentrate on more volatile stocks but only when IV is low and spreads are good. I like SPCX and TSLA because they are so active so they have tight spreads, so you don't lose on the bid/ask spread just to enter. I'm flat out bearish on TSLA, and a little scared of SPCX because the last falcon heavy launch was a good one. Still overvalued, but I think a lot of retail traders who are rich from betting on TSLA (I was long until the cybertruck and semi delays happend) will give Elon all the funding he needs. I also think that these fanboys are leaving TSLA for SPCX, which is conventional wisdom, and behind all the talk that Elon will try to merge them. I think we does want to merge them, but he would rather hit TSLA capitalization targets first, then roll into SPCX to it SPCX valuation targets. In this market, I don't think he'll get the TSLA kickers, but he certainly could if SPCX made an offer for TSLA that is just ridiculously far above spot. SPCX and RKLB puts were super cheap with great spreads in the early days of the IPO, and let's face it, we know the average trajectory of an IPO. It will open too high, rally to a blow-off-top peak, then fall below the entry point as investors that have been in 5-10 years rush to the gates to unload as the lockup ends. I even have some low-value SMH spreads for more direct volatility purchases. But yeah, tl;dr: OOM bear spreads are very convex when the price falls into them. I just think it makes financial sense to go as LT as you can afford if you want to run with hedging; volatility can literally give me ulcers without them. Every down day, you can sort your portfolio by daily gains, see a lot of green, then think about when you want to close spreads, before you think about selling stocks with strong margin growth into a panic/value-at-risk unwind. Also, when you buy LT bear spreads, you don't have to buy them as often, so you lose money on the spread ONCE, not many times. But, everyone has their own style. I used to take a lot more concentration risk, I've made all the mistakes that noob investors make. Never buy LT spreads when the market is crashing because the MM and Wall Street will be busy stacking puts, IV>HV, a dumb condition.
Terrible Idea especially at these prices, if the prices drop further maybe... And besides you can just invest in SMH (VanEck Semiconductor)
SMH is more memorable imo
Just loaded up on 40k of SMH and DRAM, I like these dips as another entry point, but I don’t have a strong investing track record so inverting me also wise.
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $500.00 (below) | $545.28 | $540.07 | -8.3% | Aug 14, 3:06 PM | | **Record** | 3W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
When the PE gets below 20, I’ll be buying! Did the same thing with SMH starting in 2015. My portfolio has been printing an average yield of 31% per year for the last decade. 🤤
They really wanted to kill puts today SMH
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $500.00 (below) | $545.28 | $544.88 | -8.3% | Aug 14, 3:06 PM | | **Record** | 3W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $500.00 (below) | $545.28 | $545.05 | -8.3% | Aug 14, 3:06 PM | | **Record** | 3W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 3W - 0L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** | $500.00 (below) | $545.28 | -8.3% | Aug 14, 3:06 PM |
My coworker who's invested says how is the time to begin loading up. He says this was the plan the whole time. SMH
I was so proud of myself that I was able to keep holding my AI names (AMAT, SMH, ASML, BE). I fought the urge to sell every day of the pullback. But we may not be out of trouble just yet. We’ll see.
If you're thinking of WQTM as the answer, maybe think again. The only holdings that really mater in that one are the Big 3 (and the newest and most promising addition, Quantinuum, making if 4). And they each are only \~4.5% of total holdings in the fund, with everything else being either unrelated or inconsequential compared to what you are trying to invest in here - speculatively powerful tech. It has also gained only 21.25% in this calendar year, too, which is sad. Analysts are now forecasting Quantinuum's growth to quickly outperform the original Big 3 (IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave, as you know). This is due to its immediately useful application across various sectors and confidence held by different agencies and corporations that have led to more contracts than the Big 3 have had. It might be worth putting a reasonable bit of your quantum interest moneys into the pure play of Quantinuum and then the rest in SMH and QTUM to round out the tech.
IGBBMN if u think real rebounds happen this quickly. just from the institutional pov, they want markets to chop near the bottom for months so they can absorb shares quietly bc they control so much capital, saw this w/ SMH July 2024 to April 2025. today’s run makes no sense from that timing perspective. it’s also being justified by that retarded Citadel vs Leopold narrative which is a red flag already, how it became such a big deal and the first report’s source was “according to people familiar with the situation” i have calls btw but only bc i think hunting rebound FOMO needs 2-3 days to trap everybody. rug pull on Monday orTuesday imo
Even so it doesn’t matter WS is starting to look at all pic and shovel companies as a ticking time bomb as ai still hasn’t matured nearly enough to fatten their pockets more than it’s drained them. It why all semi companies are down SMH had dropped over 25% and fell below big MA against the SPY. The only reason this isn’t a bull trap is cause there’s no way you can call a \~5% recovery after a >50% drop a bull case confirmation. This isn’t a trap it’s the market pulling back to a huge demand zone that’s it. If it sandisk goes past 1600$ then there starts to be a bull case but you also have to see huge gamma to the upside in terms of options and volume
Because Goldman, JPM, BAC, all gave it to him. I'm sure he'll use the language of Long Term Capital Management, run by Nobel-winning profs, who said it was a six-sigma event. I mean, what are the chances that Russian markets could collapse at the same time as the Ruble? Inconceivable! What are the odds that IGV could rally (the funding source for SMH this year) at the same time semis could crash? He's got a balanced book guys. He is hedged. He won a math prize. Give him 4x margin!
$SPY $SMH $QQQ $DRAM $KORU $SOXX $SOXL Hype generate more Zombies. Higher interest rate, wipe them to bankruptcy.
$SMH $QQQ Hype generate more Zombies Higher interest rate, wipe them to bankruptcy
I typically close at nearly a full winner for a $0.01 or $0.02 Debit. Here is some more background and why that works for me. I’ve been trading Put Credit Spreads for over six years with excellent returns. It is slightly boring, but is low stress and provides time freedom (only trade about 15 minutes per week). Sell highly liquid underlyings (I use NDX, GLD, RUT, IBIT, SPX, USO, DIA, IYR, SMH, TLT, XBI, VIX). 15 Delta (Out of the Money with 85% Probability of Profit). Short Term (28-32 DTE) with a laddered approach so one rolls off while another is opened each week. Little Management (only close positions out at a 200% loss if needed). Typically use $5 wide, but I go to $25 wide on RUT & SPX and $100 wide on NDX.
Sitting here doing some math on Leotard's port valued around $18B-$20B end of Q1. At the end of Q1, SALP had SMH puts valued at $204.2M by mid June the index had skyrocketed 80%. In addition to SMH, he held $750M in the top underlying holdings for the SMH all of which also went up making them worthless by mid June. This is definitely how he ended up 4x levered because he didn't own the underlying stock for most of the puts he had at the end of March. Would have had to borrow more to cover then when the mid June to mid July losses came he was double fucked because his stock port went to shit and he couldn't cover his margin. Tried to raise money people were like yea my shits fucked to and eventually had to sell.
How did they know, beyond standard 13f filings? Obviously they have resources and it could leak. But the last public filing showed Leopold was short semis in general, his largest position was SMH puts (sure he was long elsewhere, but hedging against a downturn just like this one).
Thing is, in the last 13f filing, Leopold was broadly short semis. His single largest holding was SMH puts. Of course, these filings are on a 90 day time lag. I wonder if he exited that position to go max long, and that hubris is what ultimately burned him.
So awesome and nice moving it out of the market. I’ve been so skeptical of semis and even I was buying the last two days as capitulation was obvious. Took all my gains from SMH this morning and moved the to corp bonds until the next entry is obvious. I’m heavy cybersecurity right now if you want to look there. Next phase play of AI.
If many punished like $META, do you think they buy semi ? $SMH. $STX $MU
If many punished like $META, do you think they buy semi ? $SMH
When you knew spy was gonna pump but you still hesitated. SMH
Agentic -AI spreading adoption everywhere. Semi &memory shortages are real Each $NVDA GPU need at least 8 HBM-memory from $MU, for Agentic AI $NVDA recent quarter $82 Billion revenue few weeks back. $AVGO earnings strong $META $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN AI expansion still strong, $QQQ $SMH https://preview.redd.it/irlqclgotbgh1.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fef5964dde4ee6abdc0df952ecf3439eda0b612
Made $1K on NVDA puts, lost another $2K on SMH shares. That’s how we roll baby.
He was holding a 4 billion SMH short at the too
2% up still. green, but pretty weak for such a good beat. SMH. at least i only have 100 shares.
SMH has breached 500 with no buyers in sight 😭
I've been trading Put Credit Spreads for over six years with excellent returns. It is slightly boring, but is low stress and provides time freedom (only trade about 15 minutes per week). Here is my strategy if you would like to give it a shot. Sell highly liquid underlyings (I use NDX, GLD, RUT, IBIT, SPX, USO, DIA, IYR, SMH, TLT, XBI, VIX). 15 Delta (Out of the Money with 85% Probability of Profit). Short Term (28-32 DTE) with a laddered approach so one rolls off while another is opened each week. Little Management (only close positions out at a 200% loss if needed). Typically use $5 wide, but I go to $25 wide on RUT & SPX and $100 wide on NDX.
**BanBet Won** — /u/tenfthigher (3W - 0L, 100%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $530.80 → $500.00 | -5.8% | 1d 3h | Won |
See $MU latest 6 quarter earnings. When all worry for tech & semi, let’s see recent earnings of $MU few weeks back $SMH $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TXN $AVGO $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC all under pressure after Fed FOMC. Economy is digital, all need semi. All use smartphones, streaming, AI-social media. AI stay forever https://preview.redd.it/dqxsmylsc8gh1.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1aa6503affe20c8c335c3f384ed5fa90af755a8
This is bullshit, SMH should be up bigly right now.
$SMH. 670 to 512, in 2 weeks, Time to swing up to 550-600
Just bought MU calls on margin and a prayer, still short SMH though
Can SMH go back under 500 already
LMAO Look at SMH chart..... this shit has so much more to fall. Its over folks
Would love some SMH below 400, but I don’t think it gets there.
How many make $166 Billion revenue annually like $MU ? $350 Billion revenue annually like $NVDA ? $NVDA earnings coming . $SMH spike for many semi earnings, saw $STX demand
Holy shit the floor is just falling out on SMH and semis
i had SNDK 1060 P and just made 50% SMH should not have solddd
US not South Korea. US defense budget 1.5 Trillion, big portion going semi for advanced defense equipment $SPY $QQQ $SMH BigTech has big cash flow, all expansion of AI going big. Nothing change, adding semi on red. $STX great earnings. $MU $166 Billion annual revenue
US not South Korea US defense budget 1.5 Trillion, big portion going semi for advanced defense equipment $SPY $QQQ $SMH BigTech has big cash flow, all expansion of AI going big. Nothing change, adding semi on red. $STX great earnings.
depends on what youre looking at. NQ? or SPX? or something like DRAM or SMH?
I wonder what Leopold's puts print on SMH and memory.
Loaded up on SMH DRAM BE and MU a few weeks ago and went on vacation. How things looking?
Don't forget SPY haven't dump yet. If there is a bottom in this dump then SPY needs to dump hard like QQQ and SMH before we can find the bottom. It may start tomorrow after FOMC Meeting and Earning in After Hour (META/MSFT).
wait for a dip before buying more $SMH
SMH, SOXX => this is not a professional advice
Buying a singular put for SK. Market will see me do it and send semis in to the stratosphere so my $10K in SMH will recover. Flawless logic.
Is SMH or SOXX better for puts
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $500.00 (below) | $530.80 | $528.95 | -5.8% | Aug 11, 5:39 PM | | **Record** | 2W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 2W - 0L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** | $500.00 (below) | $530.80 | -5.8% | Aug 11, 5:39 PM |
Worst part of SMH is when it causes me to smh
The amount of Tesla cara I see on the road make me believe half of you are trolls. You buy TSLA puts and mock Tesla and secretly buy Tesla cars SMH 🤡🤡🤡
$NVDA $SMH $MU US semi down for Korea , US not Korea for big budget for defense and semi use for datacenter.
$SMH digital world need semi always
**BanBet Won** — /u/tenfthigher (2W - 0L, 100%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $562.40 → $520.00 | -7.5% | 1w | Won |
If you loved SMH at 350 get ready to meet it again
i bought SMH 2028 puts too early and sold them too early. could've been up 3x. oh well
Honestly think stocks or ETFs (SOXX, SMH) on semis is the way to go now
AI bubble crash is good for future AI-technology. All look for ROI. Once AI bubble crash, all hardware parts & cost of GPU, CPU & memory drop hard. Many datacenters expansion cost lower, economy grow all sectors instead of just few narrow AI stocks. $SKHY $MU $NVDA $SNDK $SMH and many crash like Dotcom-2000
SMH goes straight back to $400, retail investors sell and cry, then straight to $800 in 2 months.
SMH has another 10% down easily. Dont get burned chasing calls until this selling is over
All time record volume in the $SMH today, apparently
SMH still up 50% YTD Keep loading puts on semis every green day
SMH dump today was so u deserved. Like for no reason.
Why semi’s and memory down? I have SMH/DRAM calls expiring in September. Am I cooked?
I started slowly DCAing into SMH with my 200k dry powder... y'all jelly?
Thanks retail for being shaken out. Weekly tap of the 20 MA on SMH, QQQ - nas 100… just in time for end of month mark up. Thanks for the shakeout bimbo 🐻
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $520.00 (below) | $562.40 | $541.87 | -7.5% | Aug 3, 6:35 PM | | **Record** | 1W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
me too... my 1/2027 is down 40%. I was up 40% at one point...shoulda sold. SMH
He's the most powerful troll ever ...people fall for it every time SMH
If you are talking in decades, it becomes more about what do you believe in: Biotech - XBI or IBB Robotics - ROBO or BOTZ Quantum - WQTM or QTUM AI/Tech - SMH, QQQM or any of the 7,000 other ETFs Any of those will have higher fees and may or may not have higher returns. And there is a lot of speculation in all of those areas already. High PE ratios tend to mean lower forward returns. I’ll flip that around and say that what has lead the last 25 years may not always lead the next 25 years. Look at your international, small caps and value exposure. Avantis is a good place to start.
Keep gambling with 10%, any gains over 10% put into an aggressive portfolio mix with the following VOO, VGT, XLK, QQWM, SMH, VXUS
VOO: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/voo#portfolio-composition, check out the holdings and exposure diagram QQQM: https://www.invesco.com/us/en/financial-products/etfs/invesco-nasdaq-100-etf.html#Portfolio, see the holdings Buying these 2 are a good idea. Use https://testfol.io/ to back test what you would've gotten in the past 10-20 years to get a rough idea what the future ***can*** look like. Here are some other tickers worth looking at: * VGT * SOXX (or SMH) * VXUS * VT * VOOG
So I've been putting small amounts into fractional shares for a few months, mostly just buying whatever looked good that week, and I finally sat down and looked at what I actually own. It's a mess. (side note: I am using Robinhood) **Current holdings:** |Ticker|Shares|Price|Value|%| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |SMH|0.127803|$578.79|$73.97|31.1%| |QQQ|0.0992|$691.67|$68.61|28.9%| |VTI|0.081257|$365.11|$29.67|12.5%| |SCHD|0.762104|$32.83|$25.02|10.5%| |SPY|0.026723|$738.97|$19.75|8.3%| |VOO|0.021806|$679.23|$14.81|6.2%| |NVDA|0.02824|$207.18|$5.85|2.5%| |**Total**|||**$237.68**|**100%**| I'm fine taking on a moderate amount, I'm not trying to be super conservative at my age. But I also don't want the whole account riding on semiconductors. I'd like most of it to be something boring and steady with a smaller portion that has more upside. What do I keep? What do I drop? What should I buy? Any input is appreciated. I plan on putting in $50 a month, and $1000 next month.
$NVDA $QQQ $SMH When AI bubble burst, how many Trillion bailouts? Too big to fail
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** ▼ | $520.00 (below) | $562.40 | $566.36 | -7.5% | Aug 3, 6:35 PM | | **Record** | 1W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |
What do you think of Altman's latest stunt? Releasing his pet AI to hack Hugging Face... an ACTUAL open AI company giving away free models to any and all. Then turns around and says his AI went rogue and AI is so powerful all these open models need to be regulated. SMH!
What are you buying? Maybe go a lower risk. VGT, QQQ, SMH, heck VOO. Stop gambling, start investing.
I’m holding SMH, QQQM and DRAM and MSFT am I screwed or what
could msft or meta just by weekly puts on SMH and say "we are cutting cap". and then they are rich?
**BanBet Created** ▼ | **Record:** 1W - 0L | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SMH** | $520.00 (below) | $562.40 | -7.5% | Aug 3, 6:35 PM |