SMH

Ok_Speed_3290

Im an etf style investor stocking picking never really worked for me. Heres my set up Voo 70 percent Smh 20 percent Dram 2 percent Nasa 2 percent Remainder in cash Looking to add small position in quantum possibly wqtm,rgti To answer your question directly what i would by and continue to buy is SMH

Atrox_Blue

I have different things in different accounts. I bought my first $20 of Micron when it was like $60/share or something like that and have been adding to it ever since. Sold a while back but got back in. I’ve got SMH around like $150 and NVDA at like $56. NBIS at $89. I’ve got AMAT too, that’s a recent position. That’s all basically other than some other broad market ETFs. Edit: corrected some details after double checking

miguellan

Yeah I don’t think any other semis etf comes close to SMH. SOXX is the second largest and. That offer options. If I use smh native contracts for hedging it would trigger a wash-sale instead though if I were to cash in the puts. I just started holding SMH earlier this yeah. Will do that after they go long term. Thanks for the info!

EpsteinsMarginAcct

JFC… Just give the people what they want and provide some context instead of trying to save face already, SMH

technoinvester

Crazy returns over the last year (or couple of years). However historically, semiconductor index funds such as SMH still made an average yearly return of 29.32% since they were set up in 2011. That’s pretty good going, even removing the last year’s performance.

technoinvester

Time in the market is always better than timing the market. Average return from SMH since 2011 is 29.32%, way before the ‘AI Bubble’. So arguably, there’s never a complete right or wrong time to buy.

srfdriver99

> INTC as a separate, risky turnaround bet While I agree with your core point that INTC and SMH are not remotely equivalent as investments, let's be real here. Intel isn't going anywhere. People are acting like they're going to pull an Enron and implode or something. If Intel goes down and the world goes to ARM en masse it'll still be ten+ years before slow decay ensues, and they'll transform into some kind of Windows-x86 only niche computer provider that still has plenty of market for all the software out there that requires x86 processors to run. Of course that future has shrink instead of growth, but it's not a total collapse. It's the type of stagnation that _any_ company can run into, and realistically I'd expect Intel to give themselves a few shots in the arm by buying the smaller startups out there making experimental hardware and needing to scale, before they actually suffer the fate of a GE or some such.

Any-Presentation5438

Calls on SMH ✅

InvestmentBiker

You’re not crazy to feel torn. The AI trade is a weird mix of real cash flows and story-stock euphoria, and both can be true at once. Personally I’d treat SMH as “picks and shovels with real demand” and INTC as a separate, risky turnaround bet, then size them so a 50–70% drawdown in semis would sting but not nuke your future. If you had to pick one to trim first emotionally, would it be SMH or Intel?

No-Consequence-8768

Soxx has done 35% annual returns in last 10 years. SMH 37%. Nothing wrong with adding a sector(this case sub sector) to your portfolio. ALL the Index & S&P funds have increased their weight of semis, if you feel they will continue to grow(which should) make them whatever % you want, 10%,20%, etc... XLK is 100% Tech will have more semi weight than like a QQQ.

u_spawnTrapd

I think the hardest part right now is that people are trying to force AI into either world changing revolution or total fraud when reality is probably somewhere in the middle. The dot com comparison makes sense to me structurally, but not necessarily fundamentally. In the late 90s a lot of companies had no revenue, no margins, and honestly no viable business model. Today the hyperscalers are printing insane cash flow and funding AI spend internally. That’s a pretty huge difference. That said, bubbles can still happen around real technology. Railroads were transformative. Internet was transformative. Both still had periods of absurd speculation. I think semis are probably in that category now. Real secular demand, mixed with valuations that assume near perfection. My bigger concern isn’t “AI is fake.” It’s whether current spending levels are sustainable once the easy gains are captured. Right now everyone is terrified of being left behind, so CAPEX keeps escalating. At some point boards will start asking where the durable ROI is coming from beyond copilots and ad optimization. Personally I think the picks-and-shovels side is safer than trying to predict which AI app wins. But even there, semis are cyclical by nature. People forget that when revenue graphs go vertical. Also not gonna lie, I’d separate SMH and INTC mentally. SMH is diversified exposure to the trend. Intel is a turnaround bet with execution risk. Those are very different investments even if both benefit from AI narratives. I don’t think we’re at the end of the AI cycle at all. Feels early to me too. But “early” doesn’t mean stocks can’t overshoot massively in both directions along the way.

SynapticMelody

24% is still insane concentration for your entire portfolio, especially since SMH itself is 18% NVDA. If you can tolerate the risk long-term, then go for it, but you could at least diversify more across the semiconductor industry by moving some profits into SOXX.

Impossible-Use5636

My FA keeps telling me to trim SMH to 5% of my portfolio. It's currently around 24% and up 750%. I got in when I was making chip fab machines and saw the potential. Even if "AI" stalls, everything else needs chips. Everything. Defense, automotive, durable consumer, farm equipment, aviation, and it isn't slowing.

HolaMolaBola

You'll be fine because disaster hedges will usually be OTM spreads that get put on for a very low or neutral net delta. Even a butterfly hedge using an ATM put for the nearby long leg should pass muster because the butterfly in its entirety goes on as delta-neutral. I don't follow semis so I had to look at the option traffic for SOXX vs SMH. Did you know that SMH's recent volume is 16x that of SOXX's. In your shoes I think I'd be happiest using SMH's native contracts.

rcmtt

SMH could easily pay off on some market volatility if OP takes profits.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Thoughts on SMH ETF?

miguellan

So the intent is to hold SMH for the long term and use SOXX puts to hedge for a "disaster scenario" of 15%+ drop. If I'm understanding you correctly, yes the SOXX put would be quite OTM, like 10% to 15% OTM and yes it would take a while for SMH/SOXX to fall for before the value of the SOXX put to gain value. So therefore, it's not a straddle, correct? Yes this strategy is very similar than your GLD/SGOL strategy.

Most_Lingonberry_409

I think SMH is far enough out it could be okay. AMD idk….

cybermonkey29

Hate to see this. SMH

HolaMolaBola

Not a tax specialist, but it can be helpful to remember that the reason the straddle rules exist is because the IRS doesn't want you to close one side for a loss in this tax year while deferring gains to a future year. So if you're just dabbling in SMH and plan to likely close before the end of the year, then the straddle rules are of no practical importance. If the plan is to hold SMH indefinitely, then the moneyness of the SOXX hedge when it is initiated helps to determine if you have a straddle situation or not. What kind of hedge are you considering? Because if the SOXX hedge works to (in their words) "substantially" offset losses the moment you put it on then it's probably a straddle. But if SMH has to fall a bit first before the hedge springs to life and starts offering protection, then it's not a straddle. I do this all the time myself. I use the (more liquid) GLD contracts to hedge my SGOL. I use EEM to hedge IEMG and SPX contracts to hedge US stocks.

RandomC6

OW NVDA vs SMH (Shaking My Head)

NoteLegitimate4844

Got it — here’s the copy-paste Reddit version with “Runable” included: Not tax/legal advice, but the key point is the IRS doesn’t really care about ETF labels, it cares about whether positions are **economically offsetting**. Even though SMH and SOXX track different semiconductor indexes (VanEck Semiconductor ETF and iShares Semiconductor ETF), they’re still highly correlated sector exposure, so in theory they *could* fall under straddle rules if used as an explicit hedge. In practice though, brokers won’t flag it and IRS treatment is very case-by-case. The grey area is really about intent + whether the positions function as a true offsetting hedge rather than just overlapping exposure. I’ve seen people track and structure this kind of setup using tools like Runable alongside portfolio modeling, but the tax interpretation side still ultimately comes down to how it’s constructed and used.

KrustyLemon

Bought GOOG due to demis hasabis. Bought ASTS due to the tech. Bought RKLB because every billionaire was making rocket companies. Bought SMH due to chip shortage during pandemic as it was identified to be a bottleneck. Bought MU due to reddit DD when it was $90. Bought GSAT due to apple rumours. I buy VGT weekly due to technology always moving forward.

Informal-Lime6396

I'm of the opinion that 30 is young, and target date funds and bonds have no place in your 30-year retirement portfolio. I used https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php VOO and VTI are basically almost the same. Overlap: 88% by weight, 497 # of overlapping holdings I argue for replacing the target date fund and bond allocations for some sector ETF like VGT and SMH/SOXX. As you near retirement, you can rebalance tax free towards bonds and a more Boglehead-like portfolio. But while you're in your prime earning years, I think you can stomach the volatility for bigger returns.

WishPractical8469

I also bought SMH because some Motley Fool guy said his bold prediction is that it would do better than the S&P and it sure has

AltruisticDBS

Get QQQ or SMH/SoXX and move on.

Informal-Lime6396

Sector ETFs. Wind down on individual stocks by selling your loss and gains to a net zero. Rather than MSFT and META, buy VGT, rather than NVDA, do SMH, etc.

Coloradodreaming1

Traded Micron for SMH last year after an earnings miss and drop. I was impatient. I read about all this ramp up in factory capacity, the AI story etc but ignored the thesis in that there must be huge demand in the pipeline. Still up with SMH but not 700% up.

just_some_guy034

That actually reminds me, my longer term holdings are up severely today, to the point I did screenshot. But, they are meant to be longer term (SMH, VOO, VOOG). So I’m torn between sell because duh, or hold because that’s what it was planned as. Something tells me I’m going to smh when smh drops back down :/

mikeytho1

Wtf do they expect us to do on Monday, spend time with family and friends? What about those of us with nonexistent social lives? No consideration whatsoever, SMH.

thenorthernwhiteboy

I wish you could send pics in small strew bets :/ Currently have bleeding SMH puts, I will win haha

Fantastic_F0x

I'm sure there is a more complex answer, but if you equal weight the price movement of XlE, XlU and SMH there is a correlation of SPY's price movement on a 3-min chart

Weak-Pomegranate-435

I have been hearing that since last three years. When SMH was 1/4 (from $150 to $580 now) the value of it is right now. Wen rug pull?? From $4000 to $1000?

music_is_gud

I bought 1DTE SMH calls thinking NVDA would pump and take all semis up. SMH did pump but NVDA still going down 💀 that stock is really cursed after ER

music_is_gud

Thanks SMH for the pump and the 4k for the day

TreGet234

SMH and Mag7 were disgustingly flat for months and months and months before jumping vertically in the middle of the war.

music_is_gud

Not sure why SMH pumped when most of its top holdings are in the red but I'll take it

zenyogi2025

The probability of market crash is always there, every single day. That's why it is more important to have right portfolio mix, than which stock or ETF. My strategy is 30% dividends 30% broad-market passive 30% active or adaptable ETFs like SPMO, AVGV, GARP etc who might filter for quality and profitability and able to adjust during bear markets.. 10% dry powder to invest during recession... This may not result in best returns like SMH, but atleast matches market average returns over a 5 or 10 year horizon.

Reynhart

Bought SMH puts, we'll see how that goes...

Informal_Bench_7219

SMH at new ATH today!!!

Traditional_Sea_6303

and then you woke up...... SMH

Gsw-

Is there an etf that holds the five companies you listed above in your previous comment? I was mostly holding VOO, FTEC, VGT, SMH, but those companies you listed are only a small percentage of the holdings of the ETFs that im seeing. Cheers

thenorthernwhiteboy

I need some dumb luck. I just lost 3k on SMH puts today… Throw me a lotto

Accurate-Flow8078

Are SMH, NASA good buys?

KMI_Dragon_Knight

Just buy exactly one SMH put and ur good,

Guapglocksndsticks

My leaps on SMH are looking promising. Maybe I should full port my Roth on SPY 0DTE. Yes that will suffice.

moosewithamuffin

Waited all day for AMD 450 and gave up around 3:30 only for it to take off at 3:50 SMH

Toad_da_Unc

DRAM is memory. SMH is semiconductors. QQQ (tech index) will have a lot of coverage.

Indra_Sx

A week of gains gone in 30mins. SMH 😞

Phuffu

Don’t buy any individual stocks if you’re a new investor. If you have to make posts on reddit asking what stock to buy, you shouldn’t be buying stocks. Buy ETFs. If you like this sector, consider something like SMH which has AMD and MU among its top holdings.

thenorthernwhiteboy

I also have 10K short position on SMH. I am getting fucked

Iscratchmybutt

Puts on SMH

whitewashedsyrian

Reloaded my SMH puts. Nvidia getting ready to tank everything

thenorthernwhiteboy

I have SMH puts up a bit but got raped today. I will hold strong

d33p7r0ubl3

Need Trump to come out this afternoon and say buy SMH

KYEEZY98

Why aren't you investing in SMH? You must not like money.

PsychoCitizenX

why not go for a ETF like SOXX or SMH?

moosewithamuffin

Literally the minute after I sell off my GOOGL calls it starts climbing back up SMH 😤

Airmanoops

i just sit on SMH so it will go up or down after earnings -\_0\_-

Iscratchmybutt

It’s gonna suck all the capital from semis. Puts on SMH

FuckleUp

SMH puts so 🫵 can smh

kodaksdad2020

Pretty crazy SMH was sitting at 380 for our first Iran “deal”

COBRA_DROGO

Yes SMH is a good ETF

autismovaccination

How are you guys not making money in this market? Just buy the things that go up everyday lmao MU BE ARM INTC AMD SMH QQQ this is not hard. QQQ was up like 1% a day for a month like what are you guys doing

x7_omega

Where inflows are today. Four huge memory+processors meme stocks, and leveraged tech ETF (SOXL) **dominating** non-leveraged tech ETFs (SOXX+SMH). It is full-ape dot-com play now. https://preview.redd.it/po6m5tf41b2h1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ffceb2554d49dabf7b95823a1d9634d9a6bf9644

Iscratchmybutt

my SMH puts are down a little but it's aiite... that's why you need to DCA

altaz1

The 3-6-9 Rule of Thumb: 3 Months: Ideal if you are single or have a dual-income household with highly secure employment. 6 Months: Recommended if you have dependents, a single-income household, or work in an industry with fluctuating demand. 9-12 Months: Best if you are self-employed, an independent contractor, or have highly specialized, hard-to-replace skills. I would recommend paying off your loans (kind of depends on the interest rate here) then maxing out ur Roth IRA contributions($7,500) a year. As far as stocks go it’s safer and easier to buy ETFs but individual stocks are riskier/higher upside but I feel are not as risky as some say as long as you’re not too concentrated and buying penny stocks or low cap pre revenue stocks. If you have a longer time span I prefer VTI but some prefer QQQ. Personally if I listened to my own rules I’d prob do something similar to 50% VTI 30% VOO 5% SMH 15% individual stocks. Obviously it depends on ur risk and appetite. Before people say VTI and VOO are too much overlap I don’t mind having a little extra weight in tech/large caps.

Putrid_Leg_1474

NVDA down $4, market hardly reacts, we move on like nothing happened. SMH back up 2 weeks. You heard it here

SilentBeetle

Seems like a pretty simple solution if you believe you'll lose your job in a coming financial/economic crisis. You're not investing, you're building an emergency fund that will last a year. If you lose your job you won't have a problem. I don't quite understand why retail investors invest all of their liquid cash into equities, sometimes speculative assets. The formula hasn't changed. So much doom and gloom since January 2025, yet the redditoids of stocks continue to dump every penny they have into SMH instead of bracing for the recession they believe is inevitably coming towards us all. The average recession is 11 months? If you believe you won't be able to find an income stream for a whole year (which is insane, btw) then you can take steps now to be positioned to shrug off the economic turmoil. Remember, people started complaining about the coming doom as early as January of last year. That h\\as given them 17 months to position themselves. If they don't prepare that is 100% on them. Need I remind anyone reading that Trump's little liberation day had people in Stocks acting like they had instantly lost their job and were starving the minute stocks dipped 15%. Just the most nonsensical hyperbole you can find anywhere on the internet.

No-Improvement3164

SMH pulled back exactly 10%. Imagine that.

ShowerMotor

Not at all, save your money. Do your homework with Claude, prompt it well to tell you what you need to hear without sugarcoating. It will do FAR better than any advisor. 300k is nice but not a lot of money for you to fuck up. In fact if you invest 33% between SMH, SPY and QQQ you are good to go if you dont touch it for the next 5-10 years. Wanna be safer? then 50% SPY, 50% QQQ...riskier? More SMH etc. Still my opinion, ask Claude, not a financial advisor who takes commission.

SnS2500

\> The point is that it DOES make a difference, despite what everyone says. VOO is up 176.2% the past six years. VTI is up 169.7%, so it does make a difference, but if you are going to focus on the opportunity cost of mega-cap tech growth, this difference is not where to look. XLK is up 283% in that time span. SMH is up 731%. You can't turn back the clock. If you are sure you learned a lesson, then consider it money well spent to now be able to confidently adopt a path you like better going forward.

Iscratchmybutt

I’m confident I’ll make money. I’ll just DCA conservatively if SMH goes up

ryanmemperor

Glad I went with SMH

ShowerMotor

Well I do believe the risk we are taking is in picking the sector. And the most difficult thing is to DONT DO ANYTHING, besides adding or trimming when it's too hot. Trimming SMH has been a terrible idea so far for the last 2 years.

mighty_sys_admin

I legit misclicked and sold half my position at the bottom instead of doubling it SMH

Few-Bell-5010

Interestingly, it's exactly the same conversation that I have been having with myself over the last few weeks. I made a good investment in SMH 02/2024 and have held it all the while making multiple semi buys. It's not an easy compare with the rise of the semi so relatively new but one thing that stands out is the volatility over 250 days of the ETF averages mid 30 percentile while the stocks are twice that with NVDA and TSM being the best performers at about 5 & 10 percentage points higher. So the heartache factor is less with the ETF. The performance is mixed but again, the age of the real growth hampers the analysis. In the end, for today, I am going to satisfy myself that I have done my DD and the result it that I am selling the 1/2 of my positions that underperforming SMH and put the proceeds in SMH. I don't know that this is helpful to the general conversation, but I can say the conversation focused my attention sufficiently to work thru several spreadsheets and analysis of actual performance; whether past performance leads to future results remains to be seen. IMHO, not one company has a golden egg, and it comes down to how their performance is evaluated by the market. The ETF is a nice way to pick up broad exposure and after all, I'm not as smart as those managing these funds.

kodaksdad2020

SMH septembear puts will pay for my lake house

cdog2215

But it's OK when it goes straight up for no reason?? SMH. Buy a CD if you can't take the pain.

ben1492

Long IGV and shrt SMH is the winner. Can’t bring myself to pull the trigger though.

ShowerMotor

SMH will dip another 2% or so more, marking 10% dip and it will bounce. It's rare and never happens but it's called pullback.

TreGet234

Yeah i'm licking my lips at this buying opportunity. Will it eventually pop and vaporize our money? Yes, definitely. Is it possible to predict when? No, we could still 3x from here on SMH before things break.

whitewashedsyrian

My SMH puts printing tmrw lets go

ShowerMotor

you can have both of course. My post is directed to the average person finding their way. I made the mistake of buying single stocks too. Here is the thing, buying one single stock takes balls, and what happened to me is that I never went in real size, while with ETF, I YOLO in. Because I know the trend and the ETF gives me peace of mind, as long as it is a good etf (SPY,QQQ, SMH still is risky as hell, but in this environmment I went in). Eventually my gains are slow, but consistent, and over time things compound and when you look back in years, I am always: dang that was a good decision!

moosewithamuffin

MSFT manages to get a favorable OpenAI verdict and my calls are still red on the day SMH

clavitopaz

Sell the pump tomorrow and buy 1 month SMH puts. Pussies

DICK_STUCK_IN_COW

It’s a joke you dunce SMH my head

31andnotdone

SMH my head

dinkmctip

Top 5 positions are puts: SMH, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD.

Few-Bell-5010

Why not both? I own SMH as well as many semis at this time and I was fully prepared to present my gains as proof that individual holdings outperform. After several looks, I cant find a case for my individual over SMH. I'm going to consider selling any newer investments, especially those with a little red by them, and push those dollars to the etf. 159% over 2 years from the etf is quite respectful.

Valkorion335786

TSLA SMH I HATE YOU But thanks

thethor1231

Man seeing SMH and AIFS dip hurts :(

golf_234

Eastman Kodak is a cherry picked example, I know you mean well and there is good advice here so not hating, but there are lots of examples of companies that don't look like that and are well managed enough to weather tides turning, Apple comes to mind as a counter example. Agree with most of what you are saying and know that is put out there as a cautionary example, but I would also mention not missing the obvious zeitgeists of the times, either. It would not be bad advice to have some small portion of portfolio in VGT or QQQ for example, or even SMH. I would specifically dedicate part of porfolio, maybe 5-10% in more agressive areas or companies you see growing in addition to things like VOO or VT . Sector ETF /= bagholding unless it is some absolutely wild out there play.

golf_234

Very similar strategy !!! You are almost describing me exactly. Even choosing similar funds. I do see semiconductors continuing to skyrocket, so do like SMH for that reason as well. QQQ and VGT are amazing, and I have the lion's share of capital in VOO as it is just tried and true

Valuable_Sundae5737

Loool the semiconducter etf is literally called SMH, who came up with that and whatcha gonna be doing when it goes down like Mr. Aschenbrunnnnnnnner says?

whitewashedsyrian

SMH wants to crater so bad

__redruM

> SMH So semiconductors today?

whitewashedsyrian

SMH puts printing let’s go

highastronaut

One week people are saying should I put all in SMH for at least a year or two, next week it’s a global liquidity crisis

Iscratchmybutt

so as of 3/31 he has 14% of his portfolio in SMH puts. isn't he down a crazy amount now then?