SOXX

WhatMattersHere

Small but important distinction in the semiconductor flows section: the leveraged fund in your Bloomberg chart is SOXL, not SOXX.SOXX is the unleveraged iShares Semiconductor ETF. SOXL is Direxion's daily 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF, so large inflows into SOXL can reflect fairly aggressive short-term positioning rather than necessarily a durable increase in long-term institutional exposure to semiconductors.That matters alongside your observation that hedge funds have substantially reduced their net AI exposure. Those two things aren't contradictory; different types of investors can be moving in opposite directions over different horizons.I agree the ASML and TSMC commentary provides real evidence that underlying AI related demand remains strong. The harder question is how much of that demand eventually converts into sustainable returns for the companies financing the infrastructure.The positioning reset makes the market setup interesting, but I wouldn't treat leveraged ETF inflows or OPEX positioning alone as confirmation that the next move has to be higher.

music_is_gud

Agree. I got some far OTM SOXX leaps (2028 expiry) but nothing big, coz not sure of who the winners will be of a probable near term bounce

ryallen23

I think it’s actually more depressing to lose 3x as much on SOXX which literally has just gone straight up for years

WorkSucks135

SOXX is a selection of market leaders. 

FreedK70980

mean reversion makes sense given how overbought SOXX looked, but fwiw the debt angle in the comments is what'd actually worry me. reminds me a bit of calculating a long forcing line where you see three moves deep and it looks great until you realize you didn't check what happens if they just don't take the bait (the capex keeps getting funded even if revenue growth slows). I don't trade any of this, just watching from the sidelines, but curious whether OPEX actually resolves anything today or just quiets the noise for a week.

Fhyzikz

Lmao SOXX still going down at 7pm on a Friday. Wild

spilledonwhite

interesting take, there isn't a market leader for SOXX index that I am aware of but they have all seemed to do pretty well with AI boom

TheRealArmament

Let me guess DRAM and SOXX

95Daphne

Late, but you have to remember where you are lol. I do think, while it's going to be "extremely" unpopular for reddit.com, two things though that I had recently mused on... 1. This erratic-ness has long passed being very annoying. 2. However, TCJA being allowed to expire and Dems bringing more regulation to Big Tech likely makes up the difference in the end in an alternate world. Your top is probably still around the 7800's instead of ohhh, rock it out! we're in the mid 8000's! The big difference would be the smoothness of how the market moves and you wouldn't have had big squeezes that could lead to well...what we've seen since summer in the SOXX. That said, maybe "the" market moment folks are waiting for that really gets a certain guy is finally relatively imminent. There is now a divergence similar to late 2024 and we know how that played out. I do think it's a next year thing though if it happens.

Jack-Be-Lucky

So roughly at the 200 EMA on SOXX? That’s an interesting bet

Willing-Cat-703

Do u think the AI sell off is done? SOXX has corrected significantly but I feel like this is far from over. The real capitulation has not happened yet.

gnanwahs

*NVIDIA CEO ON AI MARKET TURMOIL: ‘ALL OF THIS IS GOING TO PASS’ bro SOXX is up 60% YTD

Upset-Motor-2602

The thing is, it will take another 2-3 years before we know how all of this will play out. The SOXX selloff is waaay overdone.

One-Description-2126

I lost my SOXX

ConclusionEven6917

This market is fucked, as long as semis continue to show weakness there is no place for the broader market to go since that’s the only driving force in the economy right now. A close at the lows of the day, week, and month is not at all encouraging and as long as those stocks continue to sell so will the broader market. A day like today was expected when SPY had held so strong while SOXX tumbled, there’s only so much it can handle before it follows suit

Live_Throat_5252

I’m aware of what SOXX is. But that has zero to do with the split. I think you’re very confused. The split in no way is going to influence the price of semis.

Junior-Albatross4614

I would not trust my $ to gpt. Experience is by far the best reference. I know X number of months SOXX will go up. I generally do fine with complex problems, it is the simple ones that trip me up. I am willing to risk the scorn, but the experienced folks here will (generally) give me a straight answer.

Junior-Albatross4614

SOXX is an ETF that focus solely on semis. As the price of semis vacillate, so does the price of SOXX.

znightmaree

SOXX in freefall

Ok_Cry7572

SOXX about to rip faces next week

Xerlic

>I am full cash right now and getting these: Micron MU, Marvell MRVL, Nvidia NVDA, Intel INTC, SK hynix SKHY, Coreweave CRWV. FYI you can achieve this by buying SMH/SOXX + CRWV.

znightmaree

SOXX is about to fail major support at 495, next stop would be 463

bad_detectiv3

Is there way to determine if it’s best to sell whatever was bought three days ago? I’ve been hammered a lot by Nvda, SOXX and QQQ drop. Felt it was a big mistake to all on three days ago. The drop in those three days is way more then what it was the whole month of bullish trend

Fhyzikz

SOXX is so bad for options holy moly. The spreads are crazy

Boring_Ad7277

$SOXX is Down 9 days in a row matches the longest daily losing streak since May 2006 i mean makes sense right semis are basically useless rn

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/dogex3 (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SOXX** ▲ | $507.26 → $520.00 | +2.5% | 1d | Lost |

autumnbreeznleaves

World ex US $VXUS is outperforming the US $VTI. It's crazy how the $SOXX mirrors $EWY. If you wanna know how semis will trade just watch KOSPI from the night before. The KOSPI ended green last night. If the DXY keeps moving lower I think we are gonna see a bounce in semis or $SOXX stocks today.

Fhyzikz

Sold SOXX 450p's surely these won't be itm in 2 trading sessions right?

OrangeForeva

Just look at semis like SOXX/SOXL. It's obvious we topped.

Ok_Cry7572

Largest inflow to semis ever recorded this week $SOXX $SMH

userhwon

S&P is broad and includes where people are moving money to. This is rotation out of SOXX components.

jasperCrow

So is SOXX fucked or do we rip?

TreGet234

Neither ARKK nor MEME are up on the 1 year chart. Regard ports got clobbered. Only safety was SOXX fullport for the whole year if you wanted to be regarded.

atrox3838

So what's the sitrep today? We see 4 days of pure carnage for SOXX and dip buyers are saying nah that's enough? Need more rotation

Ok_Cry7572

Semiconductor ETF $SOXX is down 9 straight trading days, The record was 9 days in 2006 SOXX rebounded over the next 2 trading days in all 6 prior cases. Time for a boing?

Ok_Cry7572

Stocks will soar from here. Yields are crashing along with the dollar. This rally will be led by yield sensitive $IWM, $KRE, $SOXX, $EWY

verified-trader

**BanBet Created** ▲ | Ticker | Target | Entry | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **SOXX** | $520.00 (above) | $507.26 | +2.5% | Fri 12:36 PM ET |

dogex3

!banbet SOXX 520 1d

SteakEater137

SOXX down 2.5% and TLT up 1.5%, while SPY essentially flat This market is nuts lol

Sick0h

SOXX only +78% on the 1 year, he fucking nailed it 

Low_Plastic363

Yes, it's more like squeezing a balloon right now. The money isn't leaking out of the system, but it is moving from one place to another. On the 1M, DJIA is up 0.01%. S&P is up 1.82%. SOXX is up 1.67%. CRWV is down 21.6%. NBIS down 14.76%. ORCL -5.32%. MRVL is up 6.34% and CRDO is up 16%. On the whole, data centers are still being built. Chips are still being sold. The panic is over credit and questionable profitability paths.

Sweaty_Platypus69

Anytime you see $SOXX trading below $500, you full port.

95Daphne

The SOXX are down 15% though in about the last 6 or 7 trading days and we have long passed the point where that is more than enough to bother the Nasdaq badly even if the components that are not semis are trying to hold up.

Bagholder4lifez

Safer to look at the underlying, SOXX. $487-$500 could be the bottom. If not, $465. If not, better go for a walk and come back in a few months.

Fhyzikz

SOXX is below the 200sma

Bagholder4lifez

Not easy. The bleeding stop today or SOXX could go to (around) 500 or 475. I'll watch for a capitulation candle/panic sell this morning, but I won't be surprised if there is at least a little bump during the day. Straight down like yesterday, two days in a row, on no news, would be very worrisome IMO.

95Daphne

I’d be totally onboard with yesterday looking 2022 esque (a big inflation fears sell day) if bonds didn’t revert. Bonds reverting is a big bugaboo to that idea. Maybe we end up not seeing the full story repeated, but this looks sort of what we had in summer 2024 so far, except this wasn’t triggered by good data this time. You had a major tech run initially with laggage by the Dow/rest of the market, suddenly that reversed in July, and then the yen crisis tipped it over the ledge and there was a short term sharp selloff. Only difference here is the SOXX has already been struggling in distribution this time for a couple months.

Fhyzikz

According to fib lines and SMAs, SOXX is going to at least $0

IndependentUsual7444

Sooo tomorrow SOXX will be very red

Fhyzikz

Am I cooked? Sold an SOXX 480 csp today exp 11/20 and it's already halfway to that strike in less than 4 hrs lol

flyrabbit05

SOXX!!

Fhyzikz

SOXX just will not stop selling

churnAmex

Anthropic ARR Beat by 45% LOL SOXX +18% AH

Fhyzikz

Good news! I sold a 480p today for SOXX and am only 2 more days away from being itm if this keeps going. It has 37 dte lol

No-Most2405

Correction needed now time to get rich since I held 100% cash since last Thursday after shorting SOXX

TorukMaktoM

**What moved the market:** September CPI rose 0.6% on the month — its fastest pace in five months — putting the annual rate at 3.7%, above both the 3.4% August reading and the 3.6% consensus estimate. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase and reflecting the ongoing supply disruption from the Iran war. Core CPI came in at 2.6% year-over-year, a tick above the 2.5% forecast. Prices for over 52% of the CPI basket rose above 3% in September, and 35% of components rose above 4%, meaning the inflation shock is no longer just an energy story — it is broadening. Traders on CME FedWatch jumped the probability of a December rate hike to 78% from 55% within minutes of the release. Bank of America was the session’s biggest single-stock loser, falling almost 5% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and earnings even before accounting for a $1.2 billion federal penalty for widespread failures in anti-money-laundering safeguards. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock both beat estimates, providing isolated pockets of strength. The chip sector extended its brutal slide, with the SOXX semiconductor ETF tumbling 4% and extending its five-day decline to more than 10%, as investors continued to de-rate AI infrastructure names amid the OpenAI revenue question and Asian memory sector carnage. The 10-year yield’s decline despite the hot CPI print was the session’s most counterintuitive move, with analysts noting the bond market may be starting to price in recession risk from aggressive tightening rather than simply more hikes. Tomorrow brings **September PPI**, **initial jobless claims**, and **TSMC’s quarterly earnings** — the AI trade’s last critical data point of the week before Friday’s **retail sales report** and **Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at 03:30 GMT**, which will be his first public remarks since the CPI data reset the December rate hike calculus.

bad_detectiv3

you are right. I bought AMD right at ATH, before earning and it dipped hard and stayed there. It eventually went up and I’m in the money. But yesterday I had quiet bit of money in the sideline and yolo bought because of comments on Reddit. I’m regretting it so much. I waited almost a year or so. I gave in yesterday feeling “this is enough dip, it will go up tomorrow” yet today’s dip is way harder then yesterday and across NVDA and SOXX

bad_detectiv3

https://preview.redd.it/mxikewij7hvh1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d045160e5723a338dfb8b812db96de3f675b4e7a This is just fun moneey. Whole year it’s going down. I FOMO bought my 401k in fidelity (now shown), Nvda SOXX, SOXL, all really down I dnt know how to stop buying at the worse time wtf

CUbuffGuy

You know its the bottom cuz the really retarded bears are out with predictions like SOXX 400 lol. Smart ones get their bags and go long... longs always win the war, battle is up for grabs.

OnceALoser

SOXX went down 10% in September before climbing back again. It’s down 10% again but I have doubts this time that it will go back up. Too depressing sentiment this times. Plus last time it took the whole month to drop 10% but this time it dropped that much in just a week.

atrox3838

yea SOXX and QQQ dip buyers are strong at 530 and 740 repsectively. Have a feeling we'll have a cooler print which will help equities across the board.

Ceyenne18

you can trace the price movement for last couple of hours directly from ASML -> NQ -> SOXX -> Rest of semi stocks. Down to the last minute.

No-Most2405

Oh its about to get ugly for SOXX and DRAM thats why you stick with bag7

Foooour

During overnight hours, the answer is always Koreans KOSPI and SOXX over the last 6 months are basically the same chart

atrox3838

Oh wait KOSPI had a halt in trading today? Lmfao and SOXX dip buyers showed up huh

bad_detectiv3

I dumped everything I had into Nvda and SOXX Should I dump some into qqq igv and smh?

goldenlamp

ASML really needs to deliver stellar earnings to turn this around SOXX is down like 10% in a week

jcpopm

ALRIGHT ALRIGHT I was gonna buy SOXX but I'll do SOXL, you convinced me.

Medical-Lecture-6053

Since there is so many bagholding Semis & also soon to be BTD buyers.. wait for 490-500 to buy SOXX , thank you for your attn in this matter.

atrox3838

Looking at peak to trough, SOXX down 10.72% from last tuesday. AI traders gonna say 'buy the dip' without realizing that its jover and rotation has begun

Medical-Lecture-6053

i went all-in SOXX b/c it filled the gap on the daily chart so it has to bounce right? Right? RIGHT???!

atrox3838

I feel like bonds dumping this hard should have a bigger knock down affect on DXY, with GLD/SLV waking up too. Whoever decided to make SOXX options so expensive also your moms a hoe

polychris

SOXX is down 19% of its high. This is almost a bear market for semis

TreGet234

SOXX maybe, but DRAM absolutely not.

Medical-Lecture-6053

anyone think BTD on SOXX for new highs this year or is that completely regarded LH only Top is in?

Flimsy_Outside_5508

My MU SOXX put leaps just made a white tear roll down my leg❤️‍🩹

1UpUrBum

Goto Tradingview and type in IWM/QQQ or RSP/QQQ It's higher interest rates, or worries of, hitting the banks, regional banks, high debt smaller companies, companies that need more financing. SOXX and DRAM are starting to get whacked. They might lead QQQ. Watch XLK,XLF,XLV. If it rotates between those 3 it's rotation. If they all go down together it's more than rotation.

atrox3838

Lads, happy Canadian thanksgiving. A turkey spoke to me and said it's time to short SOXX. Market rotation inbound

TranzitBusRouteB

So SOXX is just toast?

GregGirthman

I want the reverse Santa rally. -50% on SPY by Christmas. -75% on QQQ. -99.9% ON SOXX.

StyleFree3085

SOXX > blind picking

95Daphne

Yeah it's a bit too early to tell still probably but if the SOXX cannot set a new record or get on course for it by shortly after the midterm, it's a bear divergence with the Nasdaq that we will probably pay for in some fashion. And I just saw someone talk about how breadth has been great, which yeah, it was up to September. That doesn't stop that the Nasdaq has been what has dictated market movement. We may be able to get away with RSP outperformance for a little while, but eventually that tech sector lagging is gonna bite.

OnceALoser

IGV and SOXX both down. What a day

OnceALoser

SOXX down five days in a row

OnceALoser

SOXX 50 day moving average is 538 which coincides with 10% drop from its October high of 596. Let’s see if this support holds.

Philosoraptor_Think

Can someone please explain to me why memory is only a negative function of SOXX? If SOXX goes down 1%, memory goes down 3% If SOXX goes up 1%, memory goes up 0.2% If SOXX then goes back down another 1%, memory goes down ANOTHER 3% Can someone please explain how it's possible that memory tracks SOXX down but not up? Literally feels like memory is totally one-sided for the last month.

Philosoraptor_Think

No, semis are looking fine, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO and AMD are all up. It's memory only.

Vlisa

SMH vs SOXX is like the chocolate ice cream vs vanilla with chocolate syrup debate

Own-Recipe5908

I know why SAAS dropped why SOXX pumped, they've been pretty inversely correlated for a year now, both ways. SAAS still makes a lot of money for very little upkeep and they're buying back stock with that cashflow.

albinorap

SOXX coming back to life this week

Informal-Lime6396

SOXX or SOXQ to avoid high concentration in NVDA

Own-Recipe5908

Good enough copycats have existed before AI too, SAAS has continued to grow. SAAS has already pumped when SOXX dumped. They have low cap-ex and print money, and now their P/E's are relatively low too, so they're financially the opposite of AI companies.

TreGet234

Spy isn't a diversified basket anymore anyway. QQQ beats everything (or even SOXX) so why even dilute your gains by not fullporting into tech?

TheRealArmament

can’t relate only holding QQQ, SOXX, and UPRO

IvoryTowerResident

short SOXX

Cav829

Yeah there are tons of bear signs on the Semis: Nvidia getting rejected by its bullish breakout and the SMH/SOXX midline rejections were pretty telling. Lots of murmurings going around about the CapEx supercycle has peaked.

music_is_gud

!p SOXX

Beginning-Fig-9089

SOXX +0.08%.....for now

Diguojigood

Actually I have no idea. SOXX did not drop that much at the end of the day.

SteakEater137

SPY, QQQ and SOXX red for once and yet almost every other major ETF on my watchlist green by a good amount. AI trade confirmed to be sucking the life out of the rest of the market. Crazy shit.