VGLT
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares
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The November ADP Jobs report is worse than you think, and a sign of what's to come
What are some of your critiques of this version of the all weather portfolio?
Do you know of any long term TIPs (inflation protected bonds) funds?
Is there any cyclical nature to specific bond markets that can be used as a rough guideline for investing?
Having trouble deciding between short vs long term treasuries
currently sitting on VMRXX and wondering if I should I move to VGLT
If a bond fund's average maturity date should match my investment horizon, should I be swapping bond ETFs every 10 years as my retirement age approaches?
YoLoIng with A leverage ETFs!!!!!!!! to buy RENTAL HOUSES!!!$$$$ 38% TQQQ 38% VGLT 12% VGIT 6% IAU 6% VPU. Rebalanc3 every 3 months and keep adding money whenever I can , currently down but will go up when Market goes back up.
Why does the performance of Long Term Treasury Bonds vary more than Short Term Treasury Bonds?
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Everyone by now should know better than to bet against Elon, invest in SpaceX ($SPCE) over Virgin Galactic ($VGLT)
I'm investing in SpaceX ($SPCE) over Virgin Galactic ($VGLT) because you should never bet against musk
You’re correct afaik and I agree, the op was asking for bond ETF suggestions which don’t allow for holding to maturity. Take a look at the chart for VGLT for reference, a common long term bond etf
Everyone arguing "bonds vs stocks" is skipping the only question that matters: why is the long end moving? - Real rate up → long-duration equities bleed - Inflation expectations up → real assets win, nominal bonds lose - Term premium up (the "debt spiral" read) → market demands more to hold 30y paper It's mostly the last two right now — not a growth story. Which is why "debt spiral, just buy equities" is too clean: the same discount-rate move repricing the 30-year also crushes the multiple on the long-duration tech holding up the index. You don't get to keep 25% equity returns and a 5% risk-free leg — something gives. (The TLT/VGLT duration warning above isn't hypothetical — it's mechanical.)
Careful with duration risk on long bond ETFs, a 1% increase in yield can be >10% principle investment loss. VGLT, TLT
In my case my horizon is 30 years. - Despite believing they are overvalued, I still hold some SP500/total market index funds just to save myself from FOMO, just a smaller part of my portfolio than most people. - I'm continuing to hold onto my FLKR shares despite the insane performance of the past year(I'm up 270%). In part because I don't want to pay taxes on gains, but also because I think the windfalls to SK Hynix/Samsung workers will really pump the Korean economy(SK Hynix workers getting $477k bonus this year, potential $900k next year, Samsung workers likely getting similar.). I'm reinvesting the dividends elsewhere though. - Buying long term US 30 year TIPS/VGLT. Bond yields are higher than SP500 earnings yield for the first time since the tech bubble. I think a recession is also likely soon. Either interest rates fall due to recession, and I make as much as an 80% gain in short term and then go back in equities, or I earn what I consider to be a reasonable return long term if interest rates stay elevated. - Some REITs for exposure to real estate. - Some consumer staples companies trading at very cheap valuations just to diversify a bit, these are all small holdings.
short term treasury notes? lol. at least have the balls to go TLT/VGLT
SGOV/SPAXX are not really hedges, they hardly move at all. They are just reducing exposure to equities. A hedge is generally an asset that moves inversely to another. A better hedge would be: - VGLT/TLT for hedging against recession(long bonds gain a lot of value when economy nosedives and fed does QE) - VTIP for hedging against a short term boost in inflation(TIPS go up in value based on CPI inflation index)
It depends on what causes the drop, but usually long term treasuries go up when stocks go down (e.g. VGLT). They've gotten crushed in the last few years because of rates going up, but imo it sets them up in a good place to buy now.
Yes, they do lower risk. Especially treasuries, and especially long term treasuries e.g. VGLT. If the market dropped 40% and let’s say you were 20% treasuries, you would most likely drop less than 32%, because their value tends to actually go up in a decline. I’d recommend you mess around with backtest tools to see for yourself. Just note the start and end dates it’s using.
Pretty much. Even r/bonds kind of hates TLT at this point. Which is also why I started looking at it in the first place as usually once everyone hates something, that's right before the countertrend rally starts lol. Like on Friday, TLT/VGLT dropped more than the actual S&P. But I fully realize it could backfire, so short-term and intermediate bonds as well as TIPS are probably better if you want to avoid the volatility.
SGOV, as an ultrashort treasury fund, is the definition of risk free. To get a better return, you would need to take on some risk. You could take on duration risk by buying longer term treasury funds (such as VGSH, VGIT, and VGLT for short, intermediate, and long term bonds, respectively), where your principal isn't at risk, but if rates rise, the value of the fund will dip temporarily. If you are wiling to take some credit risk, you can buy a corporate bond fund (like VCSH, VCIT, or VCLT) which will pay a higher yield but risks some credit losses, particularly if the economy goes into recession.
Consumer staples are always good as defensive stocks. But they're still equities. When equities crash, consumer staples will take a hit. They just rebound faster than the rest of the market. The better recession hedges are Treasuries: VTIP/STIP: short-term TIPS. Good for inflationary shocks -- like right now. SPTI/VGIT: intermediate Treasuries. Neutral ballast. SPTL/VGLT/TLT/EDV: deflationary shock absorbers. 2008 + 2020 style crisis hedges.
>There is real income potential, but it requires specific market conditions. Not something you can really set and forget. You don't have any certain way of knowing at any point of time if the market will trade sideways, up, or down. Any existing knowledge of expected volatility is priced into options. XYLD returned 8.18% the past year(including dividends), VOO 16.92%... >Agreed on REITs tho it is important to recognize they aren't going to give you qualified dividends, so you pay a larger tax bill on them. It's not as bad as it used to be, there is the QBI deduction which makes them taxed 20% less(unless you are very high income), and some of the distributions are classified as return of capital and therefore untaxed. There is also the added benefit that they generally do not pay corporate taxes. >Bonds aren't necessarily bad either. Something like SGOV gives you monthly ROI, and is tax free. Muni bond funds for your state are likely the same, but probably have a lower ROI. If you are investing for a longer horizon it may make sense to buy longer term like VGIT or even VGLT to lock in higher yields over the long term. >But you get all the benefits of a REIT plus since you actually own property you get capital gains, get depreciation, and the ability to do a 1031 exchange. There are higher barriers to entry (qualified/sophisticated investor). cap gains/depreciations are passed onto investors of REITs by nature of the classification of dividends. Dividends can be classified as cap gains or return of capital due to depreciation. The other benefit of REITs it that right now many of them are trading significantly below the underlying value of their holdings. Just look at AMH/INVH, if you take the market value of their homes minus their debts, they're trading at like a 30-40% discount.
Funds will be about the same. VGSH is going to move very small in any direction and is going to pay like 3.5% dividends. VGLT can move considerably more.
TBH VGLT/TLT are at pretty historic lows even after that 2.5% or whatever it is pump. And even r/bonds has kind of lost faith in them. Seems like a good counter-sentiment play.
**The Intelligent Investor** still rocks for timeless principles like margin of safety and Mr. Market, but bonds have changed; yields are decent now, yet they're no free lunch with inflation risks. Don't blindly rebalance to bonds in a bull; they're a hedge, but cash or BRK.B drag less in low-rate eras. Skip heavy bonds if you're young; tilt to stocks. Build a 60/40 stock/bond ETF portfolio (e.g., VTI/VGLT), rebalance yearly, and read *Common Stocks* next for growth picks.
I sold VGLT last week for similar reasons, but I don't feel any better about SGOV now.
Longer term Treasury bonds usually have higher yields, especially due to inflation concerns and longer term cost of capital. For example: $VGLT has a 4.8% yield. But remember longer term bonds are highly susceptible to inflation.
100% is crazy for anything regardless of how strong your belief is. I have about 10% of my port in VGLT. Definetly a pretty mid-long term trade though. We’re talking about macro cycles. Minimum 5 years, if not 10-15. And for maybe around +50% gain would be reasonable.
ADP Report Worse Than It Looks: November saw a 32,000 reduction in US private employment. Small Business Signal: Employers with <50 workers cut 120,000 jobs, while larger firms (+50 workers) added 90,000. Small businesses are a leading indicator due to faster reaction times, less bureaucracy (WARN Act exemption), and limited capital access. Future Outlook: Expect deeper labor market slowing, with larger businesses likely to see employment reductions soon. Investment Thesis: Long VGLT, betting on rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) to boost bond prices and lower yields. Today's Market (Dec 16, 2025): VGLT is at approximately $55.38. US 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.17%. US 2-Year Treasury yield is around 3.50%. The S&P 500 closed Monday (Dec 15) at 6,816.51, slipping 0.16%.
Why short the market, better to go for BOND ETFs like TLT or VGLT or SPTL BTW: Holding only TLT in my retirement accounts and TMF in Roth Accounts until the market turmoil over ! Will cash out around Jan 26, 2026 and move to QQQ & TQQQ. See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026. RemindMe! Jan 28, 2026 FOMC meeting !
VGLT is literally at all time bottoms, I’ve got like 10k parked there
could that explain why the bond etf's (TLT, VGLT, etc.) took a shit?
I'm over my head here, as I am more of a generalist. but here's what I found. I ran a 10-year backtest, assuming assets of VT, VGLT, AQMNX, QLENX, in descending order of percentages. I came up with roughly 9% return, 10% standard deviation. I'm not sure if I captured your intent, or if some assets should be represented by different tickers. Sharpe & Sortino ratios were less than those of SPY. it returned a lot less than SPY, with much smaller standard deviation.
bond funds (TLT / VGLT / VCLT)
TLT / VGLT up big. me like
Move to long term government bonds like TLT or VGLT. You could move to a stable value fund or money market but interest will be 0% in a recession.
Forget all that suggested in reddit. Just invest in VGLT and get monthly dividends. If stockmarket do not have any recession in 6 months, then move to VOO.
Open schwab, good broker, now use SPTL (or VGLT) and VOO in 50:50 ratio, rebalance whenever VOO drops more than 5%.
For ages 60 or above, first review ETFs like TLT and VGLT, then VOO.
I go with TLT or VGLT (both monthly dividends) and GLDM.
Similarly, I bought into a bunch of VGLT (Vanguards long term bonds etf).
Given that you are investing in vanilla index funds, there doesn't seem to be a benefit to hedging your stock market beta over simply selling some of your equities. Hedging is used when you want to be exposed to some risk factor A without B, but you have access to assets with risk factors (A+B) and B. So you buy (A+B) and sell B to effectively get just A. SCHD is an equity fund. Replacing high grade bonds like BND and VGLT with an equity fund would make you more exposed to stock market risk, not less. Finally, cash rates dropping (beyond initial expectations) would likely (though not necessarily) lead to lower yields for intermediate and long term bonds like BND and VGLT, which increases their present value, not lowers it. Bonds do poorly with rising yields, such as when inflation expectations rise.
Does anyone have advice on ETFs to hedge against the market? My current hedge consists of BND and VGLT which I want to steer away from due to potential drop in rates. Would SCHD be a good replacement? My current portfolio consists of: BND 15% VGLT 5% VXUS 30% VTI 10% VOO 40%
Trying to hedge against all those market curveballs is smart, but sometimes juggling too many bond funds can just make things messier and hardr to track, not safer. FXNAX does have corporate and MBS expsure that can act kinda like stocks when things get shaky, but switching into VGIT and VGLT might leave you expsed to interest rate risk if rates suddenly jump, which could hurt your portfolio just as bad. Plus, TIPS help with inflation but don’t protct against all scenarios. have you thought about how much risk you’re actually willing to stomch if the market tanks, or are you mostly trying to avoid losses at all costs?
I’ve wrestled with the same question, wanting bonds that actually balance out stocks instead of just moving alongside them. Shifting part of your allocation into Treasuries (like VGIT or VGLT) can give you that clearer hedge, while keeping a small slice in TIPS for inflation makes sense. The mix doesn’t have to be perfect; it just needs to give you enough stability so you’ll stay invested when the market gets choppy.
VGLT has a very long average maturity, you should be considering VGIT. The downside is treasuries have lower rates because they're "risk free" (but you know, maybe not so much now...), but that can be worth it for high tax states. Look at total return tools for a better understanding of the difference in returns.
I'm 40, live in NY and have high w2 income. Portfolio is currently 60% VTI, 20% VXUS, and 20% HYSA. I want to move most of the HYSA into bonds. I'm debating between BND and VGLT (due to the tax advantage). I did some research, but don't fully understand the tradeoff between the two. BND seems more diversified and VGLT is tax free at the state level. What are the downsides to using VGLT and saving the ~10% in state taxes?
Bonds look really good right now, low prices and high yields. Long term US treasuries looked good to me so I rotated my bond allocation into VGLT. If the economy overheats further, long term bonds will fall in price, but nobody is expecting that. Long term, interest rates will be flat or fall so long term US treasuries seem to be a good bet alongside a diversified global stock portfolio.
The formula is *bondDuration x expectedChangeInYield = expectedPercentChangeInPrice* The idea isn't just to have a bond allocation, but a potent bond allocation. One that swells in size in when there's a big flight to the safety of bonds. Your choice of Treasury is good because it's the bond-type most guaranteed to zig when stocks zag. Treasurys of all maturities benefit in a flight to safety but the most impact is felt in the longer maturities. Would you like a 10% bond stake that balloons to 15% in a big stock selloff? Where you can then sell the bonds to raise cash to buy more stocks on the cheap? You can science that outcome. To turn a 10% bond stake into a 15% bond stake requires a 50% price increase (*expectedPercentChangeInPrice*). Now, make a guess as to how far yields might drop in response to a stock crisis. The 30yr bond yield is currently 4.96% and we can imagine it falling to 2.00%. So a 2.96% drop (*expectedChangeInYield* ). Finally then, solve for bond duration and that tells you what kind of Treasury fund to buy. *bondDuration* = 50% / 2.96% *bondDuration* = 16.89 years At this point one option is to get something close to a 20year Treasury. That satisfies the duration requirement, but it isn't diversified. This 2.96% drop in yields that we're expecting may not happen evenly across all maturities. So, alternatively, VGLT has a 14.15 year duration using a mix of 10-20 year maturities. Since VGLT doesn't provide enough duration all by itself, blend it with a little of: EDV has a 24.04 year duration using a mix of 20+ year STRIPS Good luck! With this info you should be able to tailor something you're happy with.
I’d personally go with something like VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) or BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF) for a Roth IRA. Both are solid “set it and forget it” options, and since Roth IRAs grow tax-free, the interest income from bonds isn’t getting taxed either. SGOV is fine for short-term stability, but if you’re young and have time, a little more duration risk for higher returns might be worth it. Thoughts?
If you're attempting the Bogle method, your portfolio should consist of a mix of the following three equities: - US equities -International Equities -Bonds Your allocation currently has VOO and VTI, both of which represent US stocks. Dump the VTI and look into VGLT or a similar treasury ETF
If you’re going to pay less in taxes this year and have a Traditional IRA it might make sense to convert a portion of it to Roth IRA. If you have no need for that cash and can invest long term then go with a broad selection of ETFs since that is non-qualified money the ETFs will give you more tax efficient investing over mutual funds since they are required to distribute capital gains to you at the end of the year. As for your asset mix that’s based on time horizon and risk tolerance. For example if you’re in your 20s and have a high risk tolerance you could go 80-100% Equity with 0% or 20% fixed income. If you’re in your 50s with high risk tolerance you might better benefit from a 60% equity 40% fixed income blend. As for the ETFs VT/VTI/VOO/SCHD/QQQM are always crowd favorites for the equity side For your fixed income portion make sure you spread well across the yield curve since interest rate action is bound to happen eventually. Spreading through the curve won’t make you the most money but it will give you the least amount of volatility when rates do eventually change. What I mean by spreading take these three treasury ETFs for example VGSH, VGIT, VGLT and even blend of those three spreads you nicely against short, mid and long term treasuries. Hope this helps.
Totally agree, I just went in 10-15% with 50-50 VGLT/EDV about a month ago in retirement accounts. I only have 1 months expenses emergency fund and consider it a last line of defence until I can get the cash savings up. 10% didn't seem to hurt portfolio sharpe very much over the long term. Since you are on leverage it seems like a good play as well. It took a lot to get me to do 5% across SCHF/SCHY and now I'm starting to wonder if I should have done more. My whole adult life international has been dogshit.
I disagree, they will appreciate nicely when rates are eventually lowered. VGLT for example is down 50% since 2022 purely due to the interest rate hike.
VGLT. Better than HYSA, and some good upside in the next 2-12 months.
VGLT and IWMI. Both are good price right now.
If tariffs have a negative impact on the economy, inflation would falter, not rise And in that scenario, rates come down and thus SGOV would be a bad bet - its "only" a cash-like etf anyway The best bet in that scenario would actually be bonds.. the long end to be precise.. TLT or VGLT would be viable options as funds, or even taking 30y bonds as they come (yields are sweet too atm) - if your just going for a delta bet you can even look into striped 30s Other than that.. I can only requote "Never underestimate the US consumer"
Buy VGLT. Let that grow for a year while you figure it out or see the next shiny object you must have.
Thanks. Are US treasuries still considered investment grade? I know MCO changed US sovereign debt creditworthiness, but I don't know all the grades off hand. I like VGLT because it's cheaper than TLT. I guess that would be considered medium-long bonds. I was looking at EDV but I also know it has way bigger interest rate risk, not necessarily a bad thing. I think I just need someone to sell it to me. I know longer duration has lower equity correlation. I do hold some BNDX in my taxable but generally shy away from corporate bonds due to the higher correlation with stocks. That's why I also like gold and managed futures.
Bond prices and bond yields move inversely to one another. Bond yields go up -> bond prices go down. Bond yields go down -> bonds prices go up. Holding a bond to maturity is priced in, so to speak. Myself, am quietly building a position in VGLT. Treating it as a "hard asset" in the same bucket in me port alongside favorite bitcoin ETF and gold ETF.
I'm in a similar position, wanting to add some bonds to my retirement portfolio. I've invested in stocks for a long time now, but bonds are fairly new to me other than owning an aggregate bond fund. So I've been educating myself. I mostly bought more of the aggregate because that's what was available in my 401K. I don't love it. But in my IRA, I made a strategic tilt toward long term bonds (VGLT). My thinking is that if rates stay the same, I'm getting closer to 5%. If they are cut, great, I'm selling and enjoying the pop. I can buy more shorter term durations with the proceeds. But if rates rise, everything is just going to suck for awhile. However, it's just a small amount of my portfolio, and I'm 15 years from retirement. So I can wait awhile. I just went with my gut. The Moody's downgrade didn't scare me too much, and I just went for it.
Having bond ETFs, like TLT / VGLT (for 20y+) is a solid solution compared to actual treasuries If the yield is going up, the price is going down, BUT your yield / dividend is going up, sort of equaling out the theoretical price loss With actual bonds your getting hit in that scenario, as your yield is fixed but the secondary market price is going down nontheless Vice versa, ofc, with a falling yield the ETF is worse off as the yield loss is sort of equaling out the price gain Overall - depends what you actually want to achieve? I usually recommend a mix between actual, long duration bonds and equities for a retirement portfolio - for steady, fixed, 0 risk income from bonds and a little growth from the equtiies to combat inflation Overall, gotta say, Iam convinced bonds - especially the long-end of the curve, will come back really really strong in the not-that-distant future
The "spike" is just that - temporary. With inflation cooling and recession concerns, rates will likely head down eventually. When that happens, those long duration bonds will increase in value significantly. That's why I'm leaning toward VGLT or TLT rather than shorter options.
$JAAA, $BSV (short end corp plus government) and VGLT (lower fee TLT.) $BLV is long end corp plus govt. I bought some TMF today for a trade.
I don't necessarily "hope" TLT/VGLT go up because that means bad things are happening (recession, high unemployment, etc.). I don't see any way inflation comes down for the foreseeable future. I'm buying into it because I believe the rates will go down, either through a recession or because Trump did something to force them down. I don't *hope* that happens, but I *think* it will.
and another thing I'll add... I've been buying VGLT (similar product as TLT, except with a lower expense ratio) with the anticipation of either (1) recession, or (2) rates being cut for some other reason. Today was brutal.
my largest position (VGLT) has rocketed up almost 1% in the last 90 minutes. meanwhile my equity positions have all taken big shit
and consequently TLT/VGLT continuing to take massive shit
I'm buying VGLT because I believe the interest rates are headed down by hook or by crook
i noticed. my VGLT is in the toilet
If you want to invest , go for VGLT or TLT now, you will have solid yield and potential appreciation when rates are down in future.
my VGLT is down bad. lol. i hate it here
Is there any reason you specifically prefer TLT to a fund like VGLT with its lower expense ratio? Thanks.
glad i bought a bunch of VGLT on Monday. lol.
I think you're referring to the All Seasons portfolio, the simplified, unleveraged version of Dalio/Bridgewater's All Weather hedge fund that Dalio gave to Tony Robbins during an interview? >30% Domestic Stocks 40% Long Term Bonds 15% Intermediate Bonds 7.5% Commodities 7.5% Gold I don't think there is any ETF following that exact portfolio, but the five components are all available as cheap ETFs. For example: VTI, VGLT, BND, BCI, GLDM Bridgewater's All Weather Fund is a leveraged risk parity hedge fund and not available to retail investors, but they paired with State Street to offer an ETF version of it, ALLW, starting a month ago. I don't know how closely it tracks the original, but it is dynamic and actively managed and it seems to be sub-advised by Bridgewater, so I think it may be fairly close. 0.85% expense ratio. There's also RPAR with 0.50% expense ratio, which is older and not affiliated with Bridgewater.
Only thing missing is the boots (VGLT) and Mohawk (IBIT).
at least my VGLT is up 0.5%. really offsets my UAL at .. checks notes... -9%. fuck me
good thing I bought VGLT a couple weeks ago!
I think Trump is trying to crash the economy into a recession to get lower interest rates and his rich pals can buy everything at a lower price. If rates drop long bond ETFs should go up. I’m holding 100% of my portfolio in long bonds (VGLT) Not financial advice
Pre market is fake Today is another step down to the depths Elevator later in the week Biggest holdings today: VGLT / SRTY / SQQQ I tripled my shares in SRTY because I think small caps will go first
Sold 20% of my VOO this morning, bought DIVO, VGLT and a little SLV.
VGLT went up, and inverse ETFs also went up so yes
I was full port VGLT for when the recession hits and rates dropped but I took 10k at 2pm and bought inverse 3x ETFs 
My move for that thought process is VGLT
I think we talked about this yesterday 😂 I’m running 100% port VGLT and if we see a crash it could be a huge moment for us
I considered shorting the market last night but I was tired and didn’t want to make a decision without good sleep. Full port VGLT is great though because it’s roughly inversing SPY and I’ll get a dividend in the beginning of March on top 😂
Feeling real good about 100% port VGLT today
Crash coming I went full port into VGLT
>I’m sitting deep on long term bond ETFs (VGLT) and when they crash the economy I think they’ll drop interest rates and I’ll make a profit. TBH I think the bigger risk is stagflation; tariffs keep prices high, harsh immigration policy keeps unemployment low, so growth is weak. In that case. TIPS would do better.
I’m sitting deep on long term bond ETFs (VGLT) and when they crash the economy I think they’ll drop interest rates and I’ll make a profit. Once I sell at what’s hopefully the top I’m going to go short term treasuries until I think we hit a bottom.
VGLT and MRNA the moves on Monday
I’m holding a ton of VGLT but yeah that’s my take too
Long bond (20 yr) (VGLT, TLT, etc.)
MRNA and VGLT were the VIPs of the day 😂 Hard week that forced me out of PLTR and ACHR but I think we’re about to have a new moment in the market
I popped out of PLTR and ACHR into MRNA when the new Covid dropped from Wuhan Sitting deep in long term bonds (VGLT) which would go up if rates drop / the market crashes Good luck everyone! 😂
VGLT was better than cash today
Biggest holdings are VGLT and PLTR 😎
VGLT 
VGLT 