XLY

Almost_a_Noob

AMZN or XLY calls

Legitimate-Green-112

XLY train will run soon after the earnings Nov 7th. But I’m MSOS hard if trump can say something for the boys 

dreamgreener

I’m all MSOs but put a bid in for the XLY train VFF is also on the radar but I think there’s more upside to XLY Both have very good and competitive SKUs

BaystreetLPhunter

The XLY takeover is imminent

Legitimate-Green-112

Well well well. XLY 🔥

anonymoose_baker

ChatGPT response when asked if Auxly is a good investment. Not financial advice. Here’s a breakdown of whether investing in Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. (ticker TSX: XLY) might make sense — along with the risks. Note: this isn’t personal financial advice, just my analysis. ⸻ ✅ What looks good 1. Revenue & margin improvement • In 2024, Auxly reported net revenues of C$122.3 million, up 21% over 2023.  • The gross margin on finished cannabis inventory sold improved to ~46% in 2024 (versus ~34% in 2023).  • Q2 2025 results: revenue up 33% YoY, adjusted EBITDA margin ~30%.  2. Debt reduction / balance sheet improvement • They’ve converted significant debt into equity (via their partner/creditor) and reduced debt burdens.  • Their EV/EBITDA appears modest (for what one might expect in a turnaround) in some data.  3. Market positioning • Auxly is described as a consumer packaged-goods oriented cannabis company in Canada (flowers, pre-rolls, vapes) with brands.  • If they can maintain / grow market share and margins, the business model looks more “normalised” than many early speculative cannabis plays. ⸻ ⚠️ What raises caution 1. Still margin of risk & uncertainty • Despite the improvements, the company was reporting net losses. For example, in 2024 net loss ~C$16.35 m for the year.  • Some analysis note liabilities outstrip near-term assets (or at least tight liquidity). For example: “its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CA$112.0m” in one assessment.  • One commentary says that although recent improvement is good, “rate of growth … is weaker” compared to industry and the valuation (P/S ratio) is high versus peers.  2. Valuation / expectations risk • SimplyWallSt flagged that Auxly’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, compared to industry peers, is elevated given modest growth.  • Some technical indicators suggest mixed signals (i.e., not strong “go-buy now” momentum).  3. Sector risk • The cannabis industry remains volatile, with regulatory risks, pricing pressure (especially in Canada), competition (illicit market), etc. For any cannabis-related stock, those macro / regulatory risks remain meaningful. • Earlier reports flagged going concern risk for Auxly (a few years ago) though things appear improved. 

LegendaryFella

Check out Auxly (XLY). That’s my current bet on cannabis stocks

Legitimate-Green-112

XLY will have its time 

No-Confidence232

Alcohol is a boomers vice. Us youngins prefer mother natures medicine (MNMD, CRON, XLY, MSOS)

SneezyPorcupine

In no particular order, here are my thoughts on the Canadian side… SNDL - probably the most torqued and misunderstood. Look out for news out of their Sunstream portfolio in the near to midterm. A lot of ill will built up from burnt longterm shareholders but not a bad place for newcomers. HITI - not an LP but very much integral to the Canadian cannabis story. There’s been a stream of positive analyst coverage over the past few weeks and I anticipate this will continue as the company executes on its long term initiatives. ACB - I don’t hold an investment, but do admire the CEO’s turn around of the business. Lots of negativity out there again, but the shares will probably continue to cycle into stronger hands. XLY - making the right moves now. Their ongoing relationship with Imperial remains intriguing. The executive compensation is a major pain point for me and I don’t think the near term performance excuses it, but again, not a bad place to look as a new investor free of all the historical baggage. DB - very much like Auxly in terms of how I feel about it. But also like them, they sell too products and I think that’s worth something, now that they’re mostly right sizing the rest of the business. Wouldn’t go in with a large position though. VFF - it’s probably the obvious play and now that it has restructured its veggie business, we should hopefully continue to see improvements. Management compensation is again outrageous if you ask me but hey - what do I know about what these guys “should” get paid. Shareholders seem to keep voting the comp plans in droves…

SneezyPorcupine

In no particular order, here are my thoughts on the Canadian side… SNDL - probably the most torqued and misunderstood. Look out for news out of their Sunstream portfolio in the near to midterm. A lot of ill will built up from burnt longterm shareholders but not a bad place for newcomers. HITI - not an LP but very much integral to the Canadian cannabis story. There’s been a stream of positive analyst coverage over the past few weeks and I anticipate this will continue as the company executes on its long term initiatives. ACB - I don’t hold an investment, but do admire the CEO’s turn around of the business. Lots of negativity out there again, but the shares will probably continue to cycle into stronger hands. XLY - making the right moves now. Their ongoing relationship with Imperial remains intriguing. The executive compensation is a major pain point for me and I don’t think the near term performance excuses it, but again, not a bad place to look as a new investor free of all the historical baggage. DB - very much like Auxly in terms of how I feel about it. But also like them, they sell too products and I think that’s worth something, now that they’re mostly right sizing the rest of the business. Wouldn’t go in with a large position though. VFF - it’s probably the obvious play and now that it has restructured its veggie business, we should hopefully continue to see improvements. Management compensation is again outrageous if you ask me but hey - what do I know about what these guys “should” get paid. Shareholders seem to keep voting the comp plans in droves…

Legitimate-Green-112

XLY by a zillion 

Mean_Bumblebee1945

XLY seems a very good leveraged ETF to profit from rate cuts.

Affected1

Auxly Cannabis. XLY.

Legitimate-Green-112

Guys. Buy XLY it’s going to explode mark my words. Been here since 2016 and they are going to make a huge comeback. Also Tilbae is my biggest holding. 

SignificanceLate7002

Auxly Cannibus $CBWTF.OTC & XLY.TSE released their financial report this morning and it's looking pretty good.

Legitimate-Green-112

XLY earnings this morning get in before she explodes!!!! 

dblattack

XLY is growing!!

Marko-2091

You are overthinking it a lot. Nowdays stocks trading is just about "vibes". If you want a more "tangible" reason here it is: I bought it around 74 where it showed strong support. So it went up all the way to 94 and I sold around 90 but I kept monitoring it because I have faith in this and decided to pull the trigger today because yesterday it fell more than the broader market (XLY). Of course this is a bet and if I lose I can be the CAVAGARD of the year.

SignificanceLate7002

XLY(Auxly) is a good Canadian cannabis one to keep an eye for next week. Earnings report on the 14th and expectations are good. Holds top sales in several categories. Stock has been steadily rising all year. Trades on OTC under CBWTF for all my American friends out there. Q1 2025: Reported EPS of CAD 0.01 and revenue of CAD 32.67 million. That revenue reflected a ~29.4% year-over-year growth . Trailing 12 months (TTM): Revenue totaled CAD 129.76 million (up ~26.8% YoY), with net income of ~CAD 21.78 million and EPS of CAD 0.02 . Margins look solid: gross margin ~53%, operating margin ~17.9%, and net profit margin ~16.8% .

Forest_City_Frolfer

I actually really like VFF and CRON I'm down bad on VFF (I forgot about them) but I think they are making a really good decision divesting the produce business. Their operations are just quite complicated right now so I was going to wait for an earnings or two to sort out how their new produce agreement looks. CRON is really boring, and I love it. Just sitting on a huge chunk of cash waiting for everything to sort itself out, then make their moves. Their investment on HITI is interesting, and they are popular enough to pump big of the US legalizes. I also love how they've grown the spinach brand and captured so much market share without acquisitions. OGI has kinda disappointed me. They just seem to be consistently mediocre regardless of the moves they make. I sold them when Beena left and lost quite a bit on them. They have a lot of potential, but they've never really convinced me that they can do anything with that potential. Decibel I feel the same way, they've just been mediocre. Came out and posted some profits, then fell apart and have just lingered around since. As for what stock to buy? After the recent price bumps for LOVE and XLY I kinda expect them to sit around for a bit, but they both look awesome long term. VFF and CRON I think have more short term upside but they still have a lot to prove. If VFF starts posting positive net income I think they will have huge upside.

GuyOnTheCouch420

Thanks appreciate the color. What do you think of XLY/LOVE versus VFF/CRON? They both have higher EVs so I feel like it’s a hard jump to make. Kinda same with OGI but the mgmt uncertainty prob holds it back till there is an announcement. Decibel I think is bad. They came out really strong a couple years ago and just haven’t had momentum since. Feels like instead of fixing their biz they just bought a bankrupt international supplier right when it feels like international is getting tough

Forest_City_Frolfer

I just sold MTLC last week before they announced they redid their debt. They have the most efficient operations of any company I've seen in the sector, but their balance sheet is absolutely atrocious. Now that their debt is redone they doubled in value, and they are a bit too pricey for me to comfortably jump back in, so I jumped ship too early. ROMJ is a company that I really like. They've been on the verge of profitability for like 2 years now and just been unable to break even. They started selling vapes recently and that really helped their sales, and they just bought a production facility off medipharm labs. They still haven't shown any consistent profits but their balance sheet is decent, their operations are good, they were limited by capacity. I am a bit hesitant on them because the new facility will likely be expensive and that could cause them financial problems, but it was necessary for them long term. If there was more M&A in the sector they'd be a top tier buyout target for any company looking to take over the premium cannabis and topical niches. If they make those improvements to start posting profits I think they'll see similar price action I've also been watching OILS (Nextleaf Solutions) and DB (Decibel Cannabis) but haven't jumped in yet. I got burned on Decibel a few years ago and their balance sheet needs a hazmat suit. Oils turned a decent profit but they are a tiny operation, and they'd either need to get acquired, or expand and they aren't quite in a good spot for either. You are right about XLY being a big company now. They have a lot of assets and they are doing very well in sales. But for years Canadian LPs were essentially only (TLRY, CRON, ACB, CGC) and SNDL sometimes. So they had the most visibility and no one would touch the penny stock companies. It makes sense, these companies were household names at legalization and they've slowly burned that goodwill over the years since

GuyOnTheCouch420

Canopy isn’t a large company anymore. I think they shut down almost all of their production. They just suck haha. ACB same thing. Not much production. TLRY yes. They are massive and overbuilt. XLY is not small at all. They are run well just had to dilute pretty badly. And I think most ppl don’t realize fully diluted share count and that the imperial warrants are prepaid. I missed the boat on LOVE but it seems pretty expensive now. Just started looking about ROMJ. seems super cheap anything I should know? Idk much about MTLC. What’s your top pick?

Forest_City_Frolfer

I've only been invested in the smaller producers (LOVE, ROMJ, MTLC, XLY) for the past few years. My thesis was that the big companies are overbuilt and can't be efficient enough to compete in a small market. We are still seeing that now. The question is whether they can find other markets large enough to support them while they cut down to a sustainable size.

GuyOnTheCouch420

Those aren’t the big Canadian LPs anymore. ACB barely in rec in Canada. they are basically a international medical company that will do well short term but will be tougher long term because they’ll have to fight with tighter margins like Canada. CGC is dead and a dumpster fire. TLRY is Frankenstein dilution monster. Look at CRON, VFF, OGI. Along with XLY and LOVE (I think both are good but too expensive), those are your big Canadian LPs now. ACB isn’t a bad company, just hard to compare them to others. They need new international markets to keep going but mgmt has done a good job with what they were handed.

GuyOnTheCouch420

Starting to worry about oversupply again. TLRY, CRON, XLY, LOVE have all increased capacity too. I think just TLRY and CRON alone was over 100K KG and I dont think it's hit the market yet. Cant find the XLY number but i know they had a big facility they weren't fully using and said they were going to start using more and more. LOVE was 10,500 KG more per earnings last week (they seem to be a different price tier than the others, but still) and they also have a huge unused facility like XLY. That's a lot of extra product...And i'd bet the smaller ones are ramping too. If Germany doesnt keep growing faster gonna look like 2020 again. That being said i do think VFF has a cost structure that they'll be hurt less, but still would affect the margins.

Suspicious_Cycle3756

All these pages can be summed up in a couple sentences lol. Buy and hold diversified ETFs (SPY, QQQ, etc) or at least multiple sector-based ETFs (S&P SPDRs like XLC, XLY, XLE, etc etc). Then, don't sell. Keep buying and DCA (dollar cost averaging) into them over the years.

IntelligentDamage824

im so glad i got XLY calls for my tesla anticipation the loss won’t hurt as much

IntelligentDamage824

can someone explain why XLY is so down amazon and tesla are so high up

TheTreasuryPlaybook

try asking microsoft copilot for best bets like XLY etc… this clown show has to have a remedy... right?

Affectionate-Idea690

SPy id the messenger of them all....XLY XLV are some areas gaining highly today...

Appropriate_Creme720

If 1 USD = 1 CAD, and XLY.TO stays at $0.13 CAD then CBWTF should also be around $0.13 USD.

ThinLeadership9604

TSLA single-handedly preventing XLY from ripping… options are pretty cheap

ThinLeadership9604

Rate cut inevitable. 25 delta calls on XLY, KRE, and DHI it is. Bout 2 months out.

wayfarer8888

My XLY puts should finally print. Thank you 🙏🍊🤡

clarkey2508

Actually, XLY is one of my larger holdings. They area most defiantly not looked at. Problem is the sentiment of the cannabis sector as a whole is awful in the US. Hold on to these or move on and attempt a comeback. That is what is weighing my thoughts lately.

NoOcelot

What's weird is why people even look to bloated pigs like Canopy and Tilray to measure sector sentiment. There's good performing mid cap LPs (VFF, OGI) and fantastic small caps (XLY, LOVE, DB) that deserve far more visibility.

LarryStink

if you trade spys and q's and have tradingview these should be mandatory S5T(W,I,H), VIX, SKEW, XLP/XLY, SPY/VIX, QQQ/DIA, SPY/TLT

NoOcelot

Lots to love about this ER, but bottom line is that's now 4 straight profitable quarters (net income) at an unbeatable gross margin, and XLY projecting at least a $0.04 annual EPS, putting their forward P/E multiple at just 2.25.

coloradoinsuranceguy

Yeah: XLY, SMH, SBUX, NFLX, WMT, and calls on UDN (short USD). Probably should short TLT but I don’t have any more gambling money. Dates are about 2-3 months out on most of these. 10-15% OTM

toluenefan

The December 260 has only 5 open interest and no volume on Friday; the Bid/Ask is 0x4.80, the September 240 has 0x1.30 so you're gonna have some liquidity troubles, it might be hard to get filled at the last price. I would lean toward the longer dated one because its delta is less sensitive to IV and time than the shorter dated one. (It's also higher delta right now, 13 vs 7). VIX is still somewhat high, and the biggest risk of these options is IV decreasing or time decay killing delta before XLY makes a move in your favor. Always better to have more time IMO.

1kfreedom

So XLY probably is the most dependent on trade talks going well. If I wanted to pick options for a small pop on the news which would you take? I am playing with a small account. XLY high for the year was around $240. And pricing on longer data calls isn't that clear since I am looking after hours. I don't know long it will take for anything to be settled but can't imagine either side can let it go on forever. 240C 9/19 last says 1.32 260C 12/19 last says 1.22 I could always do a debit spread close to the current stock price. For those more experienced, which one would you take? Obviously, I don't plan to hold to expiration. Thanks for the help! I posted this elsewhere and I know this sub is a blackhole of idiocy, but maybe someone will through

1kfreedom

So XLY probably is the most dependent on trade talks going well. If I wanted to pick options for a small pop on the news which would you take? I am playing with a small account. XLY high for the year was around $240. And pricing on longer data calls isn't that clear since I am looking after hours. I don't know long it will take for anything to be settled but can't imagine either side can let it go on forever. 240C 9/19 last says 1.32 260C 12/19 last says 1.22 I could always do a debit spread close to the current stock price. For those more experienced, which one would you take? Obviously, I don't plan to hold to expiration. Thanks for the help!

coloradoinsuranceguy

Yeah, all in XLY puts 😎

Russticale

what is CBW/XLY? Charllots Web and Auxly?

fledermaus23

You can avoid the iv crush by going with XLY tsla is 14% of that

Affected1

been with CBW/XLY since the beginning. They dont care about the states at all currently. Will be interesting to see if they can actually make a turn around.

SW_Theories

Still holding? I’m bagholding 150P on XLY 5/16

BeefistPrime

I put in a few puts against people who deal entirely in cheap foreign labor like ross stores, tj max, levi, nike, gap. Any other suggestions? shorted XLY consumer discretionary because the put prices were too high

BeefistPrime

I put in a few puts against people who deal entirely in cheap foreign labor like ross stores, tj max, levi, nike, gap. shorted XLY consumer discretionary because the put prices were too high

AdamHorn8

That said… I’m not above XLY puts, and that’s basically a proxy for TSLA at this point🤷‍♂️

fledermaus23

2 week bear call credit spreads on XLY are my play deep ITM

AdamHorn8

Well… if that’s true, then my XLY puts should more than cover them. Wish I had taken a bit less profit on them today though

AdamHorn8

XLY 185p and some VIX 25p to hedge them with. So mad I sold all my SPY puts around 541

AdamHorn8

I joke about it all the time, but if XLY actually holds up through AH I will full port puts

Crazy_Donkies

Yup. The good thing is, if they're ETFs and long-term enough, they will print for a while as specific industries start to struggle. Even as Trump walks some tariffs back, the broad enough reach of some funds \[SPY, XLY\] will keep them making money for at least the next 6 months \[is my personal opinion\].

AdamHorn8

Whoever I just accidentally sold my June 20 XLY puts to at 4.75 when I meant to buy more… you’re welcome you lucky fuck. Just cost me ~$250, I got back in though

AdamHorn8

Google is starting to look good, but I still want to wait on that. Honestly Im done betting against any individual stock, but I’m loaded on SPY and XLY puts

AdamHorn8

Yep. I actually doubled down on Tesla between Monday and Tuesday. Sold off Friday and switched into XLY. Nearly back at ATH again and the trend is heading down. Big funds will be buying their monthly hedge puts Monday so I’ll probably take some more profit while the VIX spikes

AdamHorn8

I bought more puts Monday and Tuesday, sold all my individual stock puts yesterday and shifted into longer term puts against indices like XLY

AdamHorn8

Yes, I will be ok… Im not really trying to time it that closely. My options have plenty of time. I doubled down on TSLA and PLTR puts this week then cleared them yesterday because the options for those are too expensive. I’m still short on SPY (bought and sold 570p this week) still holding my original spy puts, and shifted into puts on XLY as a less volatile proxy for Tesla. But yes, you’re correct, I still have plenty of time to keep buying. That’s why I felt comfortable buying puts… I can make it back if I’m wrong, I don’t think I am though. I’ll be out of puts when I see at least 15% off of ATH but I’ll be swing trading overbought and oversold moments in the meantime. I don’t want to be in options personally, but when you research and see an opportunity, and you can afford to be wrong, why not take it?

dblattack

Buy our down and out weed stock XLY or CBWTF in the US. One of the only profitable weed companies trading at 0.5X revenue right now. And based in canada, win win lol

Available_Society162

XLY.TO

AdamHorn8

I think I might switch it up and get puts on XLY if it’s green today… US consumer discretionary spending is mostly done by people with the most exposure to the market, if the market is down… they’ll spend less.

ThinNeighborhood2276

Great write-up! Using ratio charts like SPY/GLD and SPY/TLT to gauge market sentiment is a solid strategy. The XLY/XLP ratio is also a valuable indicator for consumer behavior shifts. Thanks for sharing these insights!

johannschmidt

How does XLY pump on consumer sentiment crashing?

LongevitySpinach

Spending is not increasing, people have hit their limits and starting to save. But that's very hard to do when maxed out at 25% interest. Especially if you lost your job. Auto loans are defaulting. Along with housing, consumer credit contraction has begun in earnest. At the same time, govt halting payments and mass firing workers. It's disinflationary if not outright deflationary. On the other hand, you have tariffs, which is price inflation, but there's no debt inflation to go with it, so that's stagflationary, I guess? The limited money people do have is mostly beaing eaten by essentials, so consumer discretionary is in trouble. I've got april put on XLY.

fledermaus23

If you want to avoid the high premiums on TSLA options, XLY is 12% TSLA.

LarryStink

I like XLP/XLY but yeah. SPY/DIA OR QQQ/DIA represents the same essentially

FangornEnt

" Would a strategy like consistently buying weekly options on the VIX or SQQQ make sense?" This seems like it would add to your overall risk rather than be a hedge(and not a direct hedge at that). Go slow and learn the basics of options trading rather than jumping directly into an advanced strategy. You need a hedge that will not add signifigant risk or you increase your odds of getting fucked on both ends. Directional plays of major companies that are directly related to your field could be worth looking into as well as XLY/the major stocks that make up that ETF. How do your sales patterns match up with what you see in the movement of XLY?

NoOcelot

In the dank, dark world of Canadian LPs, people are still sleeping on Auxly. With the recent runup to $0.08, XLY's market cap is now $111M, just above VFF and at par with Cannara (which is also rising from the dead)

wayfarer8888

Which puts do you think will perform best? XLI or XLY (consumer discretionary or industrials)? Or is there a single company? D.R. Horton etc. are already way down. I don't think financials are at the same risk as 2008. But I see casino stocks totally underperform in recessions? Ideas?

CosmicSpiral

> So just to be clear, you are saying a correction is coming soon, but not this week? Because you had said to buy heavy on a Monday dip. Yes. I believe the window for a proper correction begins in mid-April. This is a drawdown. We hit *very* specific levels and reversed. > I’m a simple gal but to me this makes sense. Retail and the general public are seeing an almost terroristic administration doing corruption in broad daylight and featuring a ketamine addict randomly firing thousands of workers every day. Public confidence collapsing seems to be the predictable result. You're equating dislike of Trump to a bottom of a worldwide recession and a worldwide pandemic. Don't let your political biases cloud your judgment. Besides SMH, XLK and XLY, most SPDR sector ETFs are up or flat. Even XLC's down move is deceptive due to its overweighing of Mag 7 stocks. Depressed retail sentiment is additional evidence against this dip continuing. We get real corrections at the point where euphoria rules and price movement moves in a parabolic fashion (e.g. April, July). SPX's recent ATH came with very little enthusiasm and was a slog to reach. > Except when they’re not, and really, the move of a week or two can be undone just as quickly if not faster. Which is almost never the case. The fortune of the financial sector reflects the global liquidity cycle and money velocity. In the same vein as the Cantillon effect, they experience the least lag time when the economy goes south. > I’m struggling with how to word this... I agree with you that dumb money absolutely overreacts. But over the years I’ve come around to realizing it’s sometimes best not to fight dumb money. Even if they’re doing something dumb like buying or selling something they shouldn’t, why not just participate but being more cognizant to take gains before they figure things out? 85% of all market liquidity is institutional. Out of the remaining 15%, 90% of retail inflow/outflow is controlled by 10% of the demographic. Retail doesn't move the market. As I mentioned, ST5W is telling us this retreat is not broad-based. Institutions front run downturns while selling off to retail with reassurances everything's alright. Just like the dot-com bubble, GFC, the mid-2010s, and COVID. Dark pool transaction volume exploded on Friday afternoon, telling us big money is buying back in; inversely, we saw a ton of selling at the top the week before. > Again, simple gal thinking here there’s sense to it. Flight from wacky tech to safety, plus a perception that a crumbling economy will spur rate moves favorable to financials. Some numbers showing re-sale real estate is moving, mortgages are starting to happen again. These perceptions, true or not, would let someone justify XLF, right? XLF is going up, XHB is still in a protracted downturn, XLRE has been crawling up since January. They want the ideal "golden ratio" when high rates intersect with debtor demand, where the latter doesn't dampen the former. Lower rates don't spur more borrowing if people believe the economy is in the gutter. > So essential a broadening then, which could be seen as healthy? That's the ultimate bearish sign. A broadening only means the total distribution shifts as money flows to other securities in different sectors. Everything should still go up to ATHs in a bull market at different rates. > Admit I don’t watch it that closely. I’m guessing a bounce? If so that would make simple sense to me as I perceived a big selloff had happened even though the current administration’s promise/threat of a “strategic reserve” is still on the table. Frankly down so much I had been thinking of upping my small crypt hedge just on the basis of it being possibly oversold. Up 12% off the announcement. > Main question is are you still advocating heavy buying mid-Monday? Yes. I expect a pullback at Monday's start. Institutions will unravel their short positions and deleverage the shares they bought to cover.

algernonbakker

I have tracked the XLY:XLP ratio going back 30+ years. It would be an overstatement to say it’s predictive, but it does correlate with downturns. It makes sense because it actually tracks consumer behavior. Are people spending their money on boats? Or for bread?

BluesFlute

Atlantic has a good article on the “frozen job market”. Escalating federal layoffs will have multiplier effects locally . Bad for discretionary spending. Look at ratio of XLY:XLP When it trends down, this correlates with market decline. Watch the VIX, a rise above 18 is worrisome. This leads to retirees not spending. The tariffs battles, concern over debt limit leads to uncertainty. Chaos is bad.Portfolios should be shifted (not too late, yet) to a capital preservation mode. That’s not market timing, it is management of risk.

BluesFlute

VIX is rising XLY:XLP is falling Correction is due Watch GOP cut Medicaid and crow about it. Who gets Medicaid dollars? Nurses, support staff at clinics and hospitals , especially rural areas. Significant impact to economy. Discretionary spending plummets.

teachingroland

Here is my DD: I smoke a lot of weed since it became legal in Canada. The best way to smoke is vapes because flower fucks up your lungs. The best cartridges in Canada that don’t leak are the Back 40 cartridges, specifically the Mint flavour. Apparently the company that makes Back 40 vapes is Auxly (XLY.TO) which I had previously never heard of but they make excellent vape products. As such I have bought 1500 shares at 6 cents a share and plan to hold for the long run. When the rest of the world catches up on legalization, I expect the companies who figured it out already will have a leg up. Not financial advice but I recommend the Back 40 vape. Even better than stocks it it’s legal where you live. Fuck investing, get baked. Every time I smoke weed I am helping my 90$ investment go to the moon. I am a Big money investor obviously! Not financial advice but it’s certainly advice about what weed cartridges are good in Canada.

BluesFlute

This is a good time to learn technical analysis. Lots of resources. Consider the ratio XLY:XLP. It is strongly, positively correlated to SPY. The ration is down trending. Cash or bonds, maybe utilities are good now . Unless you enjoy pain.

thezenunderground

Actually puts on the XLY might be a better play than spy/qqq

DoctorWalnut

I do grasp where earnings come from. The sources are in all the major earnings reports, and can be verified by economic data. If earnings are reported weaker in the upcoming quarters, I will react to that information. 1) There aren't enough layoffs to be concerned about earnings. Total Non-Farm Layoffs and Discharges are below their pre-2020 mean. Source: St. Louis Fed. 2) US consumer spending has risen *every single quarter* since Q3 2009, with an obvious dip in 2020, and has continued to rise every single quarter without fail since Q2 2020. Source: Trading Economics. 3) Consumer Discretionary stocks (Carnival Cruise Lines, Royal Caribbean, Amazon, Apple, etc) are at all-time-highs, and have been outperforming QQQ for 6 months. Source: a ratio chart of XLY/QQQ. This means that people are obviously able to afford luxuries, since consumer discretionary stocks continue to beat earnings. Trump's tax changes during his first four years did not hurt the consumer to the point of a crash, and spending consistently rose. Inflation did not prevent the American consumer from continuing to buy goods and services, spending consistently rose. For the record, I greatly dislike Trump, but I think it's very irresponsible for people to suggest or recommend that people mess with their supposedly *long-term* portfolios. I like gold, Brazil/China, and/or cash as a small addition to a portfolio as a buffer for Trump volatility, but the earnings NEED to SHOW us that they are stopping to expect something like a global economic meltdown will happen. That isn't missing the point of the question at all. These are very tangible reasons why the global economy may not crash, which is what OP asked for.

Lower_Comfortable_33

Yeah I bought a couple not so good companies in the beginning of my journey, it was the index fund that held my portfolio down, that being ticker symbol XLY but understand that diversification is key, with out this recent deep seek drop and the bad company that I bought (that being public storage at the beginning of my journey ) I would be up around 30 to 35 percent all time, and this is learning in the fly, the hood thing about this market is time is your friend I see, but I appreciate the insight and I will consider maybe more safe etfs in my portfolio, heck I may even just have an etf portfolio, I’m seeing experience is the best teacher thank u…

LarryStink

Sectors to get long going forward as tech, and market cap weighted s&p falter XLP XLV XLY XLB XLRE

DietFoods

XLK and XLY didn't fair too bad today. Interesting... Options expire tomorrow. 

onlypeterpru

if you’re looking to be more aggressive, consider bumping up US growth exposure like QQQ or adding a sector ETF like XLF (Financials) or XLY (Consumer Discretionary). Rebalancing once a year is fine.

digitalbleux

Using my custom GPT "Precision Trader AI" - This was the response Following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.25%–4.50%, and signaling a slower pace of easing in 2025, various sectors are poised to experience distinct impacts. Sectors Positively Impacted: 1. Financials (XLF): Interest Rate Sensitivity: Banks and financial institutions often benefit from a steepening yield curve, which can enhance net interest margins. Current Performance: As of December 19, 2024, XLF is trading at $47.63, reflecting a decline of approximately 3% from the previous close. 2. Energy (XLE): Economic Growth Correlation: Energy demand typically rises with economic expansion, potentially boosting revenues for energy companies. Current Performance: XLE is priced at $84.05, down about 2.84% from the prior close. 3. Industrials (XLI): Infrastructure Investment: Anticipated fiscal policies may lead to increased infrastructure spending, benefiting industrial firms. Current Performance: XLI stands at $132.44, a decrease of roughly 2.87% from the last close. Sectors Negatively Impacted: 1. Real Estate (XLRE): Interest Rate Sensitivity: Higher long-term interest rates can increase borrowing costs, potentially dampening real estate investment and development. Current Performance: XLRE is at $40.76, showing a decline of about 3.96% from the previous close. 2. Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Consumer Spending Impact: Elevated borrowing costs may reduce disposable income, affecting spending on non-essential goods and services. Current Performance: XLY is trading at $228.64, down approximately 4.57% from the prior close. 3. Technology (XLK): Valuation Pressures: Higher interest rates can lead to increased discount rates, potentially compressing valuations for tech companies. Current Performance: XLK is priced at $232.24, a decrease of about 3.26% from the last close. Investment Considerations: Diversification: Given the varied sector responses, maintaining a diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sector-specific volatility. Interest Rate Monitoring: Investors should closely monitor interest rate trends, as further adjustments by the Federal Reserve could influence sector performances differently. Economic Indicators: Staying informed about economic indicators, such as consumer spending and industrial production, can provide insights into sector health and guide investment decisions. In summary, the Federal Reserve's recent policy decisions are expected to have nuanced effects across different sectors. Investors should consider these dynamics when making investment choices for the remainder of the year. ------- Option Strategies Based on the recent Federal Reserve policy changes and their anticipated impact on various sectors, here are specific Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) representing these sectors, along with suggested options strategies: Financials (XLF) Current Price: $47.63 Suggested Options Strategy: Bull Call Spread Details: Buy the $47.50 call and sell the $50.00 call, expiring in 30 days. This strategy limits risk while allowing for profit if XLF appreciates. Energy (XLE) Current Price: $84.05 Suggested Options Strategy: Bull Put Spread Details: Sell the $82.00 put and buy the $80.00 put, expiring in 30 days. This bullish strategy profits if XLE remains above $82.00, with limited risk. Industrials (XLI) Current Price: $132.44 Suggested Options Strategy: Long Call Details: Purchase the $135.00 call, expiring in 60 days. Anticipating sector growth, this allows for significant upside with the risk limited to the premium paid. Real Estate (XLRE) Current Price: $40.76 Suggested Options Strategy: Bear Call Spread Details: Sell the $42.00 call and buy the $44.00 call, expiring in 30 days. This bearish strategy profits if XLRE remains below $42.00, with limited risk. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Current Price: $228.64 Suggested Options Strategy: Protective Put Details: Hold shares of XLY and buy the $225.00 put, expiring in 30 days. This provides downside protection against potential declines in the sector. Technology (XLK) Current Price: $232.24 Suggested Options Strategy: Collar Strategy Details: Hold shares of XLK, sell the $235.00 call, and buy the $230.00 put, all expiring in 30 days. This strategy limits both upside potential and downside risk, suitable for uncertain market conditions. Notes: Bull Call Spread: Involves buying a call option at a lower strike price and selling another call option at a higher strike price, both with the same expiration date. This strategy limits both potential gains and losses. Bull Put Spread: Involves selling a put option at a higher strike price and buying another put option at a lower strike price, both with the same expiration date. This strategy profits when the underlying asset's price is above the higher strike price at expiration. Long Call: Involves purchasing a call option, providing the right to buy the underlying asset at a specified strike price before the option expires. This strategy offers unlimited profit potential with the risk limited to the premium paid. Bear Call Spread: Involves selling a call option at a lower strike price and buying another call option at a higher strike price, both with the same expiration date. This strategy profits when the underlying asset's price is below the lower strike price at expiration. Protective Put: Involves holding the underlying asset and buying a put option to guard against a decline in the asset's price. This strategy provides insurance by setting a floor on potential losses. Collar Strategy: Involves holding the underlying asset, selling a call option, and buying a put option. This strategy limits both potential gains and losses, offering protection in volatile markets. These strategies are tailored to the current market outlook for each sector. Investors should assess their individual risk tolerance and investment objectives before implementing any options strategies.

phileo99

I went to take a peek at the 9 day drop from 4/8/24 to 4/18/24 and found a couple of interesting things: \* MACD, a measure of momentum, turned -ve half way thru the slide. Currently, MACD is still +ve despite the current 9-day slide \* DIA dropped below 50 day SMA on day2 of the slide back then. DIA touched the 50d SMA today, but managed to close above it still. \* VXX, a measure of volatility, did go up in both cases. However, in the current 9 day drop, VXX is rising more gradually, at a more measured pace. This current slide feels to me like the Dow is working off overbought conditions due to last month's rally. But I do recognize we are at an inflection point. Tomorrow's FOMC is a "do or die" moment - Dow should rally off the FOMC interest rate announcement because it's so oversold now. However, If it doesn't then we may see contagion spread to other markets (Mag7, XLY, etc.)

romt_25

Nah, I was fine with the XLY calls, wanted AMZN's holiday pump in there at a low premium. Just did not buy enough 230c. Did ok though.

romt_25

Kicking myself for not throwing more money into XLY Dec calls back in October. 

Mordrim

I would probably steer him more toward XLY. Both should do well during the holiday season if your friend's thesis is correct. XLY has big boys like AMZN and TSLA, who can weather any potential downturns. XRT has stocks like GME and CVNA, which are more likely to crash big if there is a recession. Having said all of that, it is probably a little late to make a play on this holiday season.

strugglebusses

The guy that wrote the comment about shorting must have read something and just regurgitated it incorrectly. If you believe we cut, XLY continues running lol

Pullbee

Shorting both XRT and XLY?

formlessfighter

I'm betting on fed rate cut in December and a Xmas rally, but I agree that markets will struggle in 2025.  I'm targeting retail sector XRT, and consumer discretionary XLY to short.  Two reasons why - trump tariffs and also rising inflation tapping out consumers. 

CosmicSpiral

Interesting - almost all sector ETFs except XLY opened strongly negative. Makes sense as Friday's gains were almost all driven by retail, but it's broad-based. Right now, the Mag 7 is carrying the S&P and Nasdaq.

28k_modem

XLY:tor $0.035 net income of $.0027 last quarter, Canadian cannabis stock that has a decent market share and is profitable. If they were to consolidate 1 for 100 you would have a $3.50 stock with net income of $1.10 per share.

to-the-moon1

XLK OR XLY wait for 15-30% pull back buy leap options as far of expiration date as you can with a strike price not too much higher then current stock price maybe 10-20$ more

These_Commercial_227

So what I did was I organized ETFs that correspond to different sectors and tried to figure out which sectors would perform the best over the next four years for a high tariff environment. The top sectors that MIGHT, and I emphasize MIGHT because I can't see the future, are Utilities XLU, Consumer Staples XLP, Health Care XLV, Financials XLF, and Consumer Discretionary XLY. This keeps my money within the U.S. instead of exposing my money to the outside. Trying to pick by sector is a game you can play, but I wouldn't say it necessarily will generate alpha. Instead of months though, you should think in terms of the whole four years.

GotBannedAgain_2

Don’t try to stand in front of a freight train. If u must, short XLY. Check out the holdings: about 25% is Tessie.

ttforum

Thanks, this is what I’m thinking of going with: Core S&P 500 Allocation: 60% ETF | Symbol | Percent :—|:—|:—| Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | VOO | 35% Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF | VOOG | 15% Technology Sector ETF | XLK | 5% Consumer Discretionary ETF | XLY | 5% Small-Cap Allocation :40% ETF | Symbol | Percent :—|:—|:—| Vanguard Small-Cap ETF | VB | 20% Small-Cap Momentum ETF | XSMO | 10% Small-Cap Value ETF | AVUV | 10%

ttforum

Very interesting. Here is what I’m thinking of doing: | Asset Category | Symbol(s) | Allocation | |-——————————|-—————|————| | **Core S&P 500 Allocation** | | **60%** | | - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | VOO | 35% | | - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF | VOOG | 15% | | - Technology Sector ETF | XLK | 5% | | - Consumer Discretionary ETF | XLY | 5% | | **Enhanced Small-Cap Allocation** | | **40%** | | - Vanguard Small-Cap ETF | VB | 20% | | - Small-Cap Momentum ETF | XSMO | 10% | | - Small-Cap Value ETF | AVUV | 10% |