Zoom Video Communications Inc
52 Week High
52 Week Low
7 Days Mentions
If this new covid variant gets strong everything virtual will start booming again $ZM, $PTON and I think the biggest winner is going to be Talkspace $TALK 🗣- federal funding for mental health = virtual therapy booming we’re early and we could see it at $10-20 easily on no buyout possibly $50
So my extremely volatile 2k-30k-2k in two days strategy in two days proved to be a bit more of a bucking bronco than I could ride. I will get there much easier by simply shorting any pandemic play stock (ZM, SNAP, DIS) back to pre-pandemic levels or lower. I’m still shaky on vaccine company’s because they could see a spike when the omicron targeted vaccines go to market.
ARKK, I really enjoy most of their holdings, I hate to say it. ​ TSLA, I think it's a great company to be long on, could go under a big correction, but it looks like the future of EV's. TDOC, I mean come on, Telehealth has got to be the future of healthcare, if they can navigate these times and cement themselves as the leader of telehealth, they're going to be a massive winner. ​ ZM, yuck. ROKU, unsure. ​ COIN- Coin looks nuts! Their p/e is already at a super discount, and I think crypto could pave the way for a more decetrentalized future, however it's going to be in for a rough couple of years. ​ U- I love unity! If the metaverse does actually happen it will be built off Unity I truly believe. I think the new unreal engine looks amazing and we can see some new games being built off that engine hopefully. Spotify- anecdotal, but dude, Spotify is super freaking popular and I feel they're outmaneuvering Apple Music a little bit, and with APPL facing anti-trust I feel Spotify could continue to grow! TWILIO and UIPATH im unfamiliar, but SQ you gotta be long on. ​ Every single small business that I personally know are built off of SQ, + their adventures into Crypto are really cool, also I just genuinely like CashApp and the idea of it being way more decentralized than Venmo is. My sisters business is running off of SQ and a sister franchise of ours is also running off of SQ and I continue to see adoption in companies that use it! ​ so, in short - man, if you're bullish on fancy new tech and innovation, fuck it, just hold, but if you're like me and think the Metaverse won't come to fruition you'd be better buying off some select stocks that she has. This could be a really long hold but there are some great companies in there, some are terrible though.
It's literally in the Bible OP. "One day Cathie Wood was trekking in a national park when she saw a light over a hillock. She approached it and as she neared, she saw that it was a burning bush. "Wtf" Cathie said. And a booming voice came from the bush and echoed through the woods. "I'M GOD YOU GILF", the bush thundered. And it spoke cryptic syllables. "TSLA. ZM. ROKU..." the voice chanted. "What?" squeaked Cathie. The voice sighed for it knew her memory had been affected by age. 10 iphones appeared in front of her. The Fidelity app installed in each and the buy section open for a single stock in each. "BRING THESE TICKERS TO MY 'SPECIAL' KIDS", the voice commanded. Cathie understood what the bush wanted and accepted her destiny and brought the unrealized profits to wsb." Retards 4:20
After I got vaxxed I’ve done it as much as possible. Surrounded by liberals so only so much you can ignore, but I’m not exactly one of those “I’m scared to leave my house cause I’ll get **OMNICRON!!!11**” types. The overreaction changed the economy massively tho from an interesting perspective, although making half of everyone into shut ins boosted tech a lot. A lot of shit is inevitably gonna fall as it ends, although tbh I think names like $TDOC and $ZM are oversold at this point
Why not do both? Selectively buy the dip on some high quality socks and hedge your position with some puts on overvalued stocks in case the selloff becomes irrational or some black swan event happens.. That's how smart people make money, instead of simply buying each dip and waiting a fucking decade for your stocks to recover if the market truly does crash... Look at the charts - if you were dip buying CSCO and some other tech stocks during the 2000 crash, it took you well over a decade just to break even. Not every dip is a buyable dip. If you were buying the dip in ZM when it fell from $550 to $300, you look like a fool now that it's at $147... Does anyone here think ZM is going back to $550, like ever?
Only in a low interest rate environment is that true. High PE is a good indicator of who will be brutalized when rates go up. Zoom provides a product that is marginally better than Microsoft teams, if at all, and the large companies who are the core potential customers are already in the MSFT ecosystem. The extra functionality of zoom really only matters for 100% remote work, and even then, many companies don’t opt for it. I’m fully remote, working for a Fortune 500 company, and we just use teams. The world normalizing and rates going up are the reason ZM is in a death spiral, with good reason.
I’ve made a short list of some stocks I like and will be doing some research this week. Here is the list: NVDA, INTU, ADBE, CRM, PYPL, NET, ZM, COIN and SQ I will probably wait a little longer and see if they drop 10-15% more and start loading up.
I think everyone is underestimating just how many companies are stubborning refusing to accommodate work from home and they are losing employees as a result. Workers are coming to view WFH as a job requirement/perk and are going to start demanding it. ZM will see a second coming as a major telecommunications company.
I think everyone is underestimating just how many companies are stubborning refusing to accommodate work from home and they are losing employees as a result. Workers are coming to view WFH job requirement/perk and are going to start demanding it. ZM will see a second coming as a major telecommunications company.
Realized gain about 8%, unrealized gain 6% for this year. I had/have puts in ARKK, ZM, PTON etc., started those positions almost a year ago. My long tech positions are about 30% down but I keep adding every time it drops 5 or 10%. Selling the puts to fund the long purchases.
I will take the risk of getting down voted here.. I have/had long term puts on ARKK, ZM and a bunch more since early last year (ARKK was trading at $137 when I initiated my puts). They were long term puts that more than doubled (they were underwater for most of 2021) and I sold more than half of ARKK. Closed all ZM puts. The reason I sold? Because I don’t know if this is a quick/short dip and wanted to secure profit. The reason I’m still holding? Because I personally bet it will keep going down. Other long term puts (6+ months out) I have, CVNA (up 275%), PTON (since September 2021, sold more than half), TSLA (my biggest, currently break even), RIVN (turning positive recently). Just to be clear, there are some tech stocks I am DCA-ing. So I’m not a perma-bear or something. I am on the same page as OP. Maybe you know 100% what OP means and are just mocking.. In any case, my 2 cents. Maybe you need to understand that human life is not linear. There’s always non-linear events. That’s exactly why you “think what might happen next” instead of assume the past success just repeats with zero effort. I feel bad for TSLA fans that think 50% YoY will continue till 2030. That’s right after we had a black swan event, i.e. COVID. Why would someone assume nothing unexpected to happen within the next decade? If you are looking for things to short? Look for crypto related ones. MSTR, COIN, BITO etc. I’m not buying puts there but just sharing some pointers.
Here is my hypothesis small cap tech and startups are gonna crushed in this env which is good for Big tech for acquisitions but however because of anti trust fears they won’t be able to make much moves. So this ends up actually being good for companies like CRM, SQ, PYPL, ADBE and ZM which are cash flow positive & can swoop in to buy these companies cheap and also they don’t need to fear any small tech companies that can disrupt their business model.
Isn't WW3 very good for the economy? Loads of new electronics and EV needing to be replaced from the EMP surges, real estate going through the roof, people going back to ZM, NFLX, PTON, GME, because of fallout advisories advising people to stay inside, Jpow restocking his printer ink. I see opportunities.
CSCO had $0.36 EPS in their financial year ending July 2000. Their stock price hit $50+ at peak. So you're talking about well over 200 PE ratio back towards the height of the bubble. MSFT was up above 100 PE back then as well. If you'd bought MSFT at its 1999 high you'd still have significantly outperformed the S&P500 since. If you bought CSCO at ATH you'd be just under where you started. These 1999 stocks were trading at multiples much more similar to names like $TDOC, $ZM, $NET, etc. in 2021, which have already gotten smashed similarly to stocks in the tech bubble. You look at $INTC, $CSCO, $QCOM, companies that actually had a product. It's all around a 75-80% drawdown, similar to the NASDAQ at the time. We are already in the midst of our tech bubble crash right now. Tons of stuff down 70-80% already.
Why do you say that about ZM? Revenue is still going up every single quarter, enough cash to cover their debt (no long-term debt whatsoever) so not as affected by rising interest rates, still logging massive sales growth, net profit margin of 30%, ROIC of 33% (ROA of 23%) if you prefer that, and beat guidance/expectations by a large margin last quarter. People here keep saying that MSFT Teams is beating them, but I can't for the life of me see where people are drawing that conclusion from. IIRC their growth in terms of customers over $100k was something like 90% last quarter, and their phone system for businesses is growing at like 70%.
I agree, but I'm just not sure if I'm missing something. I think they have established themselves as the virtual platform for healthcare. ZM and PTON are prime examples of pandemic plays. ZM has no moat, and they haven't established themselves as a work-from-home platform, that title is take by MSFT. PTON is just home-gym equipment. People might still use it, but if you didn't buy a PTON bike during the pandemic you sure as fuck aren't buying one post-pandemic.
$TSLA is the next stock to go to under $500. It's gonna be the last stock soon people actually have profits in and as it slowly goes down and down people are not gonna wanna risk losing profit as all their other stocks whether PYPL or SQ or ZM or whatever they're down bigly in.
Honestly just high pe and fpe with bad looking charts, not much to it. Was short PTON ZM and DOCU last year on the same metrics, just bad charts and high valuations is all. not any crazy number reading or anything
Or maybe it's a beginning of stabilization and rotation into boring shit that's hella cheap. It's not like they're the first domino. Everything high growth has already been down 50%+. ZM, DOCU, COIN, HOOD, etc. etc.
Netflix 1dte 400 c at the opening bell, if it breaks below 400 , will buy Feb monthly 430c .PTON bought a few 1dte 25C b4 closing for a bounce back.Holding DWAC Feb month 50C , will look to book profits by selling 50% of holding to raise the money for Oracle, cisco & ZM March monthly calls. Expecting new ATH for cisco and oracle by March. ZM contra trade with a price target of 220 by March. Meta verse foray & good results are the triggers for ZM bounce.
Read about how Warren Buffet invests. Not as a bible, but to learn how he values a company. Most preferably his older work. Watch vids. Learn about Bernard Baruch who pulled all of his money from the market before the Great Depression. Take the things you learn an out them in your tool belt. There’s no one way to apply, understanding what you’re buying and it’s true value is immensely important. You wouldn’t buy a Big Mac for $100, but a lot of people now on a lot of stocks are buying Big Macs at $20 hoping they go back to $100 because they were there recently. No basis in reality for this thinking. You know the value of most things you buy daily. You should know the value of the stocks you invest in or at least some easy formulas to get you a ballpark figure. You can research what makes a stock go up and down. You’ll be hard pressed to get the right answer and people think it’s a mystery, it’s the short sellers, no it’s the bulls. Baruch has good info here for sure. Understanding what is changing that price will change how you invest forever. I’ll give you the answer, but I guarantee you need to think on it. The only thing changing the price of a stock is the person who bought it. If we had volume of 1 share for the day on Apple because no one else was selling and I buy it for $1,000 every person holding a share is now seeing that there stock is worth $1,000. The market cap is now 6 times higher. 2.5 trillion to 15 trillion in an instant. Did we really just create 12.5 trillion in wealth. If tomorrow someone sells a share for $160 again did we really evaporate 12.5 trillion in wealth? Can be a tough on to wrap ones head around, but my trading life changed forever when I ran through how 75 billion in wealth could evaporate from only 250 million dollars changing hands down 2 decades ago. When you see it you see it. ZM is the next domino to utterly tumble.
Yea that's basically his thesis. ARKK etc. NFLX already unraveling and down -50%. But here's my question, when ZM was discovered to be a piece of shit ticker and also down like 70% how come that didn't crash the market before?
I mean hitting $700 in October/November and not slowing down since the pandemic, it seems like a no brainer it should slowdown at some point. Roku, cloud companies and biotech have some room to fall for sure. I'm really starting to think we are close to the bottom for some growth names specifically: SPOT, SQ, ZM (debatable). Waiting until at rate hike/March-ish to play it safe for now though
If this actually is 2000-2002 in the ZM/TDOC/PTON world, and I would have to say it might very well be that in that world given what I heard about PTON today, y'all have a TOOONNNN more pain to go and many people like you are going to get bombed out forever.
So which stocks do you like right now? I see you're not pumped on the speculative tech, fair enough. I personally think some of these names like $ZM are below fair value, but it's much harder to fair value a company like $ZM. They had a growth windfall from the pandemic, their product is highly-substitutable, and their multiples imply long term above-average growth. So which stocks or sectors do you feel are trading below fair value?
Always thought it was shit, saw that FP post doing research on MF picks beating SPY. Decided fuck it why not try stock advisor, maybe its good. It is filled with so much trash. Mega bullish on ZM last year before the big dips, super bullish on SHOP, Z, basically all mega growth. I think whatever good results they have is just massive bets on tech that worked until it didn't.
As you've outlined though, there's no justification on any stock going 5X or dropping 80% from a move in interest rates 2->0% or from 0->2%. They have a modest impact on NPV, no doubt, but $ZM's present value of future cash flows did not drop by 75% with the interest rate move. Instead, what's really happening is the market simply falls in and out of love with certain types of stocks. It's all momentum. There is no fundamental reason these stocks would be worth many times more or less than they were just a few months ago. Momentum is working in each direction on these stocks. It way overshot their values in Sept to Nov. Now it's selling them off like they're hopeless. In my opinion, it creates a great opportunity to go bargain hunting. These aren't specific names selling off, it's entire sectors. It's multiple compression. There are definitely small/mid cap tech stocks which are down 70-80% from their highs, that will be double or triple their value within 3 years. The risk/reward is setting up very well on things like TDOC, ZM, MTCH, NET, you name it. If you can find a company that is down 70-80% from its highs, and you are confident they can continue to dominate their sector, then you are getting in at a great position. You don't even need to be right half the time if your average winner goes up by 2.5X.
Thanks for the detailed post. I read it with interest as I am short ZIM and long PLTR so we definitely have different lines of thought. :) I'll share my thesis for anyone interested. I can't post charts in a reply which would help illustrate my thinking, but ZIM I've been short since September at 60.20, and MATX as well. Yes looking at FCF and revenues at the moment look great, but my thinking was more in line with what we saw with PTON, ZM, TDOC selling off as they were temporary long covid plays to begin with and financials looked great only while the markets they drive revenue from are strong. Markets are forward looking so current FCF is less important for stock price than future financials, which is what I'm speculating on reversing, where I believe you are speculating on a continuation. ZIM/MATX financials are up because the underlying market of shipping is going through a once in a lifetime supply chain issue making for bidding wars for containers to get on ships and the companies to drive more revenue from that. If you listen to the earnings calls you can hear their CEO's and CFO's discuss the issues. You can actually graph the correlation with shipping if you look at things like the Baltic Index or want to track shipping freight costs here [https://fbx.freightos.com/](https://fbx.freightos.com/) The inputs to shipping costs (fuel, labor, etc) have not increased substantially which you can see in a historical chart of operating expenses and COGS, thus with increased revenue they get higher EPS which has been on a tear lately. Many of the freight analysts I've heard have suggested after Chinese New Year in February they believe pressure will start to relieve as supply chain issues normalize. So in my mind, the shipping industry is reaping temporary rewards of a bidding war in ocean freight which is driving their top line growth, but I don't think that will last as supply chain issues will inevitably get sorted out over time, thus bringing down ZIM/MATX revenue. At least that's my operating thesis on the trade. In my view, the major risks from the short side are whether ZIM/MATX use their larger than normal cash reserves from their windfall profits to keep on doing buybacks (MATX has started) or figure out a great ROI way to deploy that capital to continue earnings growth.
I made the mistake of trying to short it on its moon run. Long term obviously would have worked, but even ZM I was like this is total crap. I call it a product not a company. People called me an idoit and tried to explain all the potential things ZM could do with some sort of added rev model. Classic I was right but timing's a bitch.
>The issue is not default... the issue is that the rise in interest expense and discount rate reduces earnings and depresses fair value for both reasons. The rise in interest rates decreases the NPV of future cash flows. That's the story, so to speak. But it's a tad ridiculous. I mean, how far out are we really valuing these supposed cash flows? Even at 2% interest rates, cash flows a decade out are reduced by... 22%. Are we really valuing $ZM on its 2035 earnings? The market has clearly overreacted in each direction. First, the story was that 0% interest rates were never going up, so growth stocks could justify any valuation they want. Now most of these similar stocks are down 60-80% on interest rates rising a couple of basis points. $ZM was priced at $95 per share in July 2019. Back then we had 2% interest rates. Pre-pandemic. Barely anybody even knew what Zoom was. They had $622M in r