Reddit Posts
The FIAT Money was Design for Debasement your Purchasing Power 💡
Predict BTCUSD prices based on net market liquidity
Trading Resources for Traders & Investors from r/CryptoCurrency
Adjust for Money Supply - This Crypto Cycle Correlated to 2019 Perfectly
Your One Stop Dashborad for Economic Conditions and How Not to Guess but Actually Know What Interest Rates Markets are Expecting.
[Serious] How many of you actually understand Inflation?
House Price Index for the United States Priced in Bitcoin (FRED Data)
The US money supply did not increase 400 percent the last few years. Please stop making this claim.
Mentions
This shows exactly why I'm worried about our economy and think bitcoin is a good alternative to fiat. I don't know much about these charts from FRED, is this one they generate automatically or did you create it somehow?
Look at the 1980s in the U.S. where the relationship between M2 money supply and inflation broke down. This is publicly available on FRED. Numerous papers on this topic.
Bitcoin's lowest price is set by the cost to make one. The cost to make a Bitcoin is based on the network hashrate and Halvings. We can reasonably project that the hashrate will increase at least 20%/year for 20y and the Halving effect will increase cost by 20%/year. At 40%/year CAGR and $30k/Bitcoin present value, the price of Bitcoin should reach ~$10 million. Another way to think about it would be: If it takes $27million daily inflows to keep a stable $30k price against 900BTC daily outflows, if the amount of inflows quadruples (rate of M2 growth according to FRED), but the outflows reduce to 38BTC daily outflows by 2044, Bitcoin should reach at least $4million. Halvings actually happen a tiny bit faster than every 4 years, so it's likely that we get 6 Halvings instead of 5, putting $8million each by 2044 at fair value. Within 6 Halvings, 0.1 BTC is an entire Block Reward.
Lol, it doesn't matter if you can't trade a house for bitcoin. Can you trade dollars for a house? ✅️ Can you trade dollars for a bitcoin? ✅️ Simply take the median housing price index from the FRED database, and normalize it using the BTC index from your favorite exchange. In math terms: (USD / Median House) / (USD / BTC) => (USD / Median House) * (BTC / USD) => (BTC / Median House) * (USD / USD) => BTC / Median House * 1. And just like, we've trivially eliminated USD. We can do this because both houses and bitcoin have liquid-enough markets and both can be readily-traded for USD, making de-facto houses for bitcoin trades possible.
Median selling price in Q4 2022 was 479k. Median selling price in Q4 2023 417k this is FRED data. So I'm not sure where you're getting your data but id be taking a state farm discount double check mate.
If all one cares about is the price in fiat, they are completely missing the point. It's about owning a foundational asset class that cannot be diluted. Show these knuckleheads a chart of the FRED money supply over the last decade. The Fed thinks it can print its way out of debt. This of course inevitably crushes fiat savers and conservative portfolios. It should not take a brainiac to understand that 0% fractional lending and unlimited money supply printing hurts fiat. Once that fact sinks in, storing wealth in **the** decentralized/trust-less yet peer-to-peer/global/semi-anonymous/limited supply yet liquid 24/7/365 asset that **cannot** be debased might..just maybe..start to make a little bit of sense for these thick skulled muggles. And to fully appreciate these benefits, you have to look at the technology in order to internalize it and develop trust in it. That's the only path to true orange-pillage.
According to FRED data (CDCABSHNO) there is still an extra 3 TRILLION USD sitting in US household and non-profit checking accounts over and above what was on deposit Q1 2020. So there is still money out there. Next time BTC gets hot I reckon 45k. Might struggle after that just due to general macro shitty conditions, but who knows? If it can break through previous ATH then 100k is not unreasonable. Inflation affects nominal value of BTC too.
The public can't tell its ass from its face. And US debt is not money supply. I know why people say it increased that much: Because FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) posts a pretty graph of its calculated M1 that shows a massive increase over Covid. But influencers just point to the graph, never mentioning the footnotes for changes to the calculation, nor their explanation of the nuances behind the numbers during Covid that FRED goes into; and why would they, it's lengthy and doesn't make for sensational content. Nuance doesn't sell). If you look at M2, a much better gauge of money supply, you'll not that it did indeed increase during Covid, but not by the same magnitude: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL)
Fed been engaging in QT since May of 2022. The surprising thing is that Bitcoin price is going up the past 9 months in spite of the QT shown in FRED data. How long will Fed be able to keep up QT?
The biggest issue I have with some of the younger content creators who now include macro content is when they mention the fed funds rate being “high.” —as if this would be a barrier to a mania phase. I was a working adult during the Dot Com Mania. Look at the SP500 measured in the money supply. We still haven’t had a mania as large as the Dot Com Bubble. All that for websites. Company websites. Back when people didn’t buy things online. Pull up a chart. (FRED: effective federal funds rate) Check the fed funds rate from 93-99. No zirp. And yet we had a massive speculative bubble. We don’t know when another mania phase happens. AI reminds me of what the early dot com bubble felt like. I worked in San Francisco in the late 90s and the entire city was changed in a few years. But something could happen (yay fear of being paperclipped) to spook people and it never lifts off. I think the Halving is a narrative. 4 Year Cycle? Who knows. But if AI Mania ramps up, Halving happens and….let the bull rage on…
For those who don't know how FRED works, you can take any charts and combine them in different ways. For example you can take the average house price divide it by the price of bitcoin. So this isn't an official chart from the Fed, this was generated by a Bitcoiner.
now, FRED has a graph for anything uh? =)
If they aren't accurate then the real numbers are almost certainly going to make the situation look even worse as opposed to better. The numbers on the charts in FRED already paint a pretty dire picture if you understand what they mean, so the fact that they could be worse is irrelevant. The shit is going to hit the fan eventually either way.
2023 Stock Market Dates you should know I’ve also added the time! If any important dates are missing let me know and I’ll add them! Quick definitions: **FOMC**: The Federal Open Market Committee. The main monetary policy-making body of the Federal Reserve System, responsible for setting interest rates and determining the direction of monetary policy in the United States. **Interest rate decision**: The Federal Reserve interest rate decision refers to the annual target range for the federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which affects the cost of borrowing money in the U.S. economy. **JOLTS** The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program produces data on job openings, hires, and separations. **CPI**: The Consumer Price Index. A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. **GDP Estimate**: Gross Domestic Product estimate. The monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders in a given time period, often used as a measure of a country's economic output and growth. **The Beige Book**: A report compiled by the Federal Reserve that provides anecdotal information on current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. **Jobs numbers**: The statistics on the number of people employed and unemployed in a specific time period, usually released by a government agency such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, used to gauge the health of a country's labor market. **PCE inflation rate:** The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Jan 31-Feb 1 FOMC meeting Feb 1 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Feb 1 JOLTS report for December 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Feb 3 January job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Feb 4 Jerome Powell’s Birthday Feb 14 January CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Feb 22 FOMC Minutes of January 31-February 1 meeting 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Feb 23 Q4 GDP second estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Feb 24 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Mar 7 Beige Book release Mar 8 JOLTS report for January 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Mar 10 February job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Mar 14 February CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Mar 21-22 FOMC meeting Mar 22 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Mar 30 Q4 GDP final 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Mar 31 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Apr 4 JOLTS report for February 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Apr 7 March job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Apr 12 March CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Apr 18 Tax day Apr 18 Beige Book release Apr 20 4/20 Apr 27 Q1 GDP first estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Apr 28 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern May 2 JOLTS report for March 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern May 2-3 FOMC meeting May 3 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern May 5 April job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern May 10 April CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern May 25 Q1 GDP second estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern May 26 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern May 30 Beige Book release May 31 JOLTS report for April 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Jun 2 May job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jun 13 May CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jun 13-14 FOMC meeting Jun 14 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Jun 19 My birthday Jun 29 Q1 GDP final 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jun 30 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jul 6 JOLTS report for May 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Jul 11 Beige Book release Jul 12 June CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jul 25-26 FOMC meeting Jul 26 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Jul 27 Q2 GDP first estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Jul 28 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Aug 1 JOLTS report for June 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Aug 4 July job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Aug 10 July CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Aug 29 JOLTS report for July 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Aug 30 Q2 GDP second estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Aug 31 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Sep 1 August job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Sep 5 Beige Book release Sep 13 August CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Sep 19-20 FOMC meeting Sep 20 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Sep 28 Q2 GDP final 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Sep 29 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Oct 3 JOLTS report for August 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Oct 6 September job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Oct 12 September CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Oct 17 Beige Book release Oct 26 Q3 GDP first estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Oct 27 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Oct 31-Nov 1 FOMC meeting Nov 1 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Nov 1 JOLTS report for September 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Nov 3 October job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Nov 5 Remember, remember… Nov 14 October CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Nov 28 Beige Book release Nov 29 Q3 GDP second estimate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Nov 30 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Dec 5 JOLTS report for October 7:00am pacific/10:00am eastern Dec 8 November job numbers 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Dec 12 November CPI 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Dec 12-13 FOMC meeting Dec 13 Interest rate decision 11:00am pacific/2:00pm eastern Dec 21 Q3 GDP final 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern Dec 22 PCE inflation rate 5:30am pacific/8:30am eastern *Sources: BLS, BEA, FRED St Louis fed, Investopedia*
hey this is cool and I was hoping someone would do this for.a long time. request. add cost of one acre of prime farmland in Bitcoin you can get the data from USDA site if not FRED. farmland sort of condenses a lot of info about inflation , ag commodities and energy into one variable and so it particularly useful.
Seems like a bunch of people who failed high school level math and economics are answering. Here’s the actual data and how it works into the big picture: [FRED table of data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?eid=1194201&rid=20) And if you don’t know what that data means, don’t worry about the random charts people tell you to lmfao
>The central bank creates only a tiny fraction (on the order of 1%) of the total currency supply. The overwhelming majority of it is created by commercial/retail banks. Yeeeep >Go on FRED and bring up the data series of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. That'll tell you how much money the central bank printed into existence. That recent giant spike is the QE regime. Mostly treasuries, bonds, etc. These were "acquired" from the commercial bank system, and "swapped" with reserves. Some people think of reserves as "base money", but they don't leave the Fed or its member banks' balance sheets. So.. not a very useful "money" even if being generous with the definition.
>We agree commercial private banks create a lot of money too. Regarding which one is higher, we'd like to see statistics Go on FRED and bring up the data series of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. That'll tell you how much money the central bank printed into existence. Then look up M1, the most liquid currency supply. The central bank creates only a tiny fraction (on the order of 1%) of the total currency supply. The overwhelming majority of it is created by commercial/retail banks.
I can relate to this. Lol! HODL while I can. I am surely accumulating $FRED to of metarollers in their gartic game night in discord.
FRED is gonna ease his rates again and fuck up our bags
Don't be fooled into thinking rates aren't gon a have to go to as close to 5% as possible without completely obliterating the GFC. There's been a smattering of blood on the streets to date, but just wait until markets really feel the strain. Unlike USA many countries have variable rate mortgages with fixed rates only offered for 2-5 years. Anything over 3% will mean 6-8% on variable rate mortgages and that's when we'll see the 'Max Payne' until unemployment soars high enough. Just look at the FRED credit swap lines and see the bids. A lot of banks are already in big big trouble.
Whatever happens today, don't be fooled into thinking rates aren't gon a have to go to as close to 5% as possible without completely obliterating the GFC. There's been a smattering of blood on the streets to date, but just wait until markets really feel the strain. Unlike USA many countries have variable rate mortgages with fixed rates only offered for 2-5 years. Anything over 3% will mean 6-8% on variable rate mortgages and that's when we'll see the 'Max Payne' until unemployment soars high enough. Just look at the FRED credit swap lines and see the bids. A lot of banks are already in big big trouble.
I agree that the conclusions are somewhat misleading from the information presented but still there are some valuable info there which shows that we haven't been in this kind of situation for a long time FRED graph you linked does show couple of times it went negative but that was just for a brief moment and it looks non significant to the situation we see today
The only analyst I trust (like it or not) is the fucking FRED). If the want to keep raising rates for 10 more Months, then don’t expect the bear market to end any time before that. Also, big events that the war can dictate and influence this as well. Once the FED stops raising rates and decides to actually start lowering rates, then we are good.
**FRED Chart** of [The Dollar Purchasing Power Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R) You know what means this Chart for your "Wealth/Savings" in FIAT Currency?💡 **Bitcoin** fights Against **Devaluation** (*CPI Inflation mechanics*) of **FIAT Money**👌 Watch the documentary (*You need to know the History of FIAT Money!*)
Smoke and mirrors at it's finest. Why else the clawing back of official recession model (which is clearly outlined on the FRED site) and substitute it with "other" that fits their narrative.
Based on what average home price index? I think 416k is most recent per FRED
Real estate is already losing jobs. Go on FRED and look up residential construction payrolls.
Whether CPI is fair may be at the center of where we are in this discussion now. There are some compelling cases out there for better measures, and it isn't difficult to look at the weighting on FRED, compare that to experience, and start to see something isn't right. But, you're right, general consensus is still CPI is the best measure we have. I think this is by design, as CPI is one of the few tools in the governments economic toolbox to manage the publics perception the current state of the economy and outlook of the future. Unfortunately many things through time that have generally had consensus agreement are wrong. You might find interesting some of the cases for a more accurate measure of inflation being closer to the annual return of the S&P500. As far as capital accumulation and the erosion of that capitals value, I don't have anything to add beyond what I've already said. I don't think people should be forced to take on risk to preserve the capital they've accumulated. Don't really have the time to continue that debate. Thanks for the conversation, best of luck.
You can see this on TradingView by using the following ticker: **COINBASE:BTCUSD/FRED:WM2NS** Present day price of $20k is roughly equivalent to Dec 6, 2017's price of $13k.
I think you can use the BTC price / M2 money supply or something like that. No idea how accurate it is but tradingview this: 'BITSTAMP:BTCUSD/FRED:M2SL'
First at all, if you are looking the **DXY Index** as "The **Strength** of the Dollar" you are right, but **only against other FIAT currencies👌** ➡️ [Country's FIAT Currencies vs Dollar📊 Over the Last 10 Years...And Bitcoin!](https://twitter.com/AnalisisSeguro/status/1535817168209715200) ➡️ [DXY Index Composition (Image)](https://ibb.co/zG6PSY4) The **Composition** of the **DXY Index** is a Composition at the **Foreign Exchange Rate**👌 # You should also Understand the recently history of FIAT Money (Monetary Policy) its Important👌 Like **Bretton Woods Agreement**, where **Dollar** became the **Reserve of the rest of Currencies of the World**, an **Gold** became the Reserve of **Dollar Supply (M2 Chart)**. But what happen in **1971**? **President Nixon** banned the **convertibility** of Dollars into Gold, **breaking** the Bretton Woods agreement and shoot down the **Gold Standard**. Without Gold Standard there is nothing backed the Dollar Supply, just the **confidence** of the poeple in Goverment and Central Bank - *FIAT is a Latin word meaning Faith or Trust.* This history event was the **beginning of FIAT Money System** actually we have, where Central Bank and Goverments can **Print Money** everytime they want only with just a **Monetary Policy Modification** \- *This is what they did in 2008 to Bail Out the Big Banks.* # Now that you know about part of the History of how the dollar became the world reserve currency...➡️ [IMF Data of Global Foreign Reserves (DXY Composition)](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) Now you need to Understand the MONETARY POLICY of Central Banks, but this is more Complicated to explain, and in a Single Commentary it's Impossible😄 So I will leave you 2 videos, one is from the **famous Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio** and another where it is **explained very well** how **FIAT Money** loses **Purchasing Power👌** ➡️ [How The Economic Machine Works - By Ray Dalio](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0) 👈 Pretty Basic Explanation (30 Minutes Duration) ➡️ [End of the Road - How Money Became Worthless (Documentary)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTMna_vYDJg) 👈 Great Explanation (53 Minutes Duration) ➡️ [Dollar Purchasing Power (FRED Economics Data)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R) 💩 ➡️ [How Bitcoin is a Hedge from this Loss of Puchasing Power of FIAT Money](https://twitter.com/AnalisisSeguro/status/1532119057918414848/photo/1) 💪 # I hope this help you and solve some of your doubts😁 Cya👋
FRED is a program of the St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve. The St. Louis branch is the one tasked with maintaining and analyzing historical records.
tldr; The St. Louis Federal Reserve compared the price of eggs in USD to Bitcoin on its FRED blog. The blog is designed to crack a joke about Bitcoin, but the Fed ended up with egg on its face. The Fed is legitimizing Bitcoin as a unit of account by comparing it to the dollar. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
tldr; The St. Louis Federal Reserve has compared the price of eggs in USD to Bitcoin on its FRED blog. The blog is designed to crack a joke about Bitcoin, but the Fed has ended up with egg on its face. The Fed is legitimizing Bitcoin as a unit of account by comparing it to the dollar. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.*
Egg price change over the FRED period in USD: +72% Egg price change over the FRED period in BTC: +9%
I think it can, and 28k has been my line in the sand since Jan 2021. Doesnt feel like max pain yet and it's definitely not Nov Dec 2020 prices. Alas, looking at the weekly all the signs are that the local bottom is in. Huge wick down below support (our 25k flash crash) with crazy short volume. Comparing it to historical weekly data, I'm becoming more bullish that this run isn't over yet with each passing day. But the housing market hasn't crashed yet and without ever really know what's going down in China its hard to really gauge when the global economy will collapse. FRED charts all indicate its inevitable, and coming soon, with GDP/reserves down but global USD always up up up. Stocks are still way overvalued especially nasdaq, and all projected revenues are decreasing. Even gaming is slowing down its growth as an industry which is classically and fundamentally recession proof. All these tiny rate hikes are just exit liquidity and prompts for the big boys to get out imo, 6 months down the line fed will prob pull out a 100 or 200 basis point hike to finish everyone else off, then turn around and claim success at dampening inflation.
Will be the FRED M2 money Supply chart ever updated ?
That's why you got to look at Real GDP, FRED St. Louis is a good source
The scary part comes when you bring up charts pertaining to Money Velocity (FRED) from the 60s to current. Read into it what you will and act accordingly.
Or coin a new acronym like FRED= Fucking Read Everything Dickhead
Now show him the FRED charts on YoY inflation and ask why gold hasn’t been going up by that amount…
> By February 2021, the dollar supply in circulation increased by +40% since the start of the pandemic. That is probably like +50-60% by now. If you turn your own research you'd show us the FRED graph proving it. Why are you guessing when the data is public?
Look at the FRED chart, and see how much M2 Money Supply has grown, since the start of The Plandemic. It's WAY more than 5-6%. More like 20-25% If the gubmint is telling you 5-6%, multiply that to the 3rd power. They have no incentive to tell you the truth. The S&P500 is closer to the cost of capital than the manipulated CPI will ever be
trading view, chart: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD/FRED:M2SL, SP:SPX/WM2NS, TVC:GOLD/FRED:M2SL
[FRED M1SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL) this graph shows the amount of us dollars on circulation, draw your own conclusions
FRED:ASPUS/BITSTAMP:BTCUSD on TradingView gets you how much bitcoin you need to buy an average house in the USA: https://imgur.com/9ojpnU2
That link is actually according to FRED, his buddy down in St. Louis.
Possible. But I feel like there’s some more to my thought process than just bias. Home starts and all that info can be found on FRED. Only time will tell.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/dv5GB6A4/?symbol=FRED%3AM2SL
Oh you children. "It wasn't real democracy!1!". This is what democracy and the political economy surrounding it produce. Also, go look up "incidence of corporate tax" (hint, corporate tax has always fallen on labor and consumers more than shareholders), and find FRED graph of IRS receipts/revenue from the upper tax brackets...it hasn't changed much over the decades since WWII, despite higher top marginal rates....because that's how democracy works- the rich and concentrated interests will always use it to their advantage. You will never be able to use democracy to stick it to them. That's not how it works.
Regarding commercial paper claimed as assets on their balance sheet (that has no context). Foreign CP outstanding relative to the total amount of CP outstanding peaked at 42%. This same time, BTC price also peaked. For context, peaks in FCP outstanding vs total CP between 2013 and 2019 was around 29%. Total CP at present is about $1,100 billion outstanding ($1.1T). In March 2020, when BTC was right around $5-6k, FCP to Total CP was 27%. Since BTC price peak in April, FCP to total CP has fallen from 42% to around 35%. Strange correlation. Source: FRED graphs
You’re not the FRED..are you?
FRED-O-MATIC Manchester United’s official robotic vacuum partners.
Only way BRUNO and PAUL coins pump together is if FRED or MATIC pump too
I haven't heard of FRED coin yet but maybe we need to check that out
FRED now has over 8 trillion in assets being held. About half of that was propping up the stock market.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL I very could be wrong, but I think this is the chart from FRED showing this. If I am wrong, please let me know which one it is (I know its on there somewhere)
I can see myself supporting the FRED token.
If you're looking to graph inflationary signals in TradingView, I would add M2 monetary supply, S&P 500 for general asset inflation, and maybe some of the CPI ones, like this: [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-CPIAUCSL/](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-CPIAUCSL/)
Each #FRED backed by 1 actually freddo? Let's goo 🤣
[shadowstats.com](https://shadowstats.com) and its fucking sad that we have to do it this way and cant believe the official numbers The FRED system though seems honest-ish. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
Thanks! Appreciate the kind words. The data is all sourced from publicly available datasets. Money supply data from FRED (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL) and historical Bitcoin price and volume data from Bitcoinity (https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/price_volume/all/USD?t=lb&vu=curr). If you want to build something I would recommend that you that just start doing it, even if you initially don't know how. You'll figure it out as you go, and Google is the best resource for when you get stuck. I did a couple of R courses, but honestly they didn't teach me as much as just trying to code on my own and figuring it out along the way.
I think I get the point of your argument.. here is a source that argues both sides.. [https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/does-inflation-favor-lenders-or-borrowers.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/does-inflation-favor-lenders-or-borrowers.asp) ​ Also, I'll concede to your point on incomes not tracking inflation well. I took a look at FRED data for CPI and Median Income from 1985 to 2019 ... there is actually a negative correlation here which is quite odd to say the least.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FRED-WM2NS/ I think the times you are referring to are periods when the government went OFF the gold standard to do whatever manipulation it is that they wanted to do, then returned to it resulting in the shock of trying to go back to equilibrium, and them blamed the consequences of their actions on the gold standard itself because let's face it governments never blame anything on themselves.
Huh, that's strange, although some figure inconsistency isn't unusual in such a world. 35% of USD cash printed in the last year or so as of 2021, December 16 (FRED Economic Data, 2021, as cited in Choros, 2020). On the topic of what the feds actually said, if you haven't realized already, I'm a very irresponsible reader lol. Kudos to you actually reading it I guess. It's just really late where I am and I have no more time than to just skim through very quickly. ​ **Sources Cited:** Choros, J. (2020, December 16). *35% of All U.S. Dollars in Existence Have Been Printed in the Last 10 Months*. Netcoins. Retrieved in [https://netcoins.ca/blog/35-of-all-u-s-dollars-in-existence-have-been-printed-last-in-10-months/](https://netcoins.ca/blog/35-of-all-u-s-dollars-in-existence-have-been-printed-last-in-10-months/) FRED Economic Data. (2021, March 23). *M1 Money Stock*. FRED Economic Data. Retrieved from [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1)
Well no crap, of course Jerome Powell will increase interest rates! 35% of the entire history of the American petrodollar was printed in the last year, and the fact that we haven't seen a theoretical high of a 35% price increase in all goods is concerning. The Pandemic has repressed a lot of the government spending and inflation. When people are forced at home, they sit on a lot of cash they wouldn't otherwise spend in places like malls and theatre, lowering the monetary velocity (FRED Economic Data, 2021). A lower monetary velocity means money exchanges less hands, causing uneven value distribution over the wider population. Combine this with the fact that the fed printed voluptuous amounts of money and what you have is a economic time-bomb! As the Pandemic dies down and more people start to redistribute the money, the true effects of 2 years of repressed inflation will ripple throughout the world. How bad the effects are up for guesses, but the fact that Jerome Powell has already pre-emptively upped interest rates certainly isn't a good sign to say the least. ​ FRED Economic Data. (2021, May 27). Velocity of M2 Money Stock. Economic Research. Retrieved from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
FRED has it. He's referring to M1 money stock when he should be looking at M2. M1 looks like $20Tr printed but in reality it just reclassified savings deposits. M2 money stock accounts for this forever.
No, it isn’t. This simply isn’t backed by data whatsoever. It’s a false narrative to push austerity and sabotage any assistance from Congress for the working class. Look at the historical chart for inflation rates from FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA You’ll notice we are in a period of unprecedented low inflation. Before the 2008 collapse, inflation was 3% very regularly, and quite higher still before neoliberalism ravaged America. Inflation is not an inherently evil thing, provided income increases with it. Actually, the 2% inflation per year over the last 12 years coupled with 0% wage growth has been far more destructive than past periods of higher inflation. Inflation devalues debt. It often acts to redistribute wealth. We also have the levers of fiscal policy at full throttle towards inflation because deflation was the fear in mid-2020. All the Fed has to do is raise rates a bit and this little mirage of inflation would vanish instantly. Now look at the monthly CPI data here: https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm Notice May 2019 had index 256.092, May 2021 had index 269.195. sqrt(269.195/256.092) = 2.5% inflation over the last 2 years. Using year-over-year increases, comparing the lowest point of the pandemic downturn where we had deflation to now, is deliberately misleading. You should realize, the levers that would reduce inflation, would also increase unemployment rates and decrease wages. This is not in your interest as a part time pizza worker. And takeout is a luxury, so your customers are probably doing alright. Poor people don’t order delivery.
Small but important nitpick: M2 stock/supply doesnt strongly correlate with short-term CPI fluctuations. M2 *velocity* is what you want. Go take a look at the FRED charts and compare with core CPI. Broader point: M2 velocity always spikes when emerging from a recession. Adding in all the supply chain hiccups and you get the current apparent inflation in a variety of food, commodities, etc. Bit we need to wait for the supply chains to destabilize before we have any idea whether this is "real" sustained inflation or just short-term price fluctuations.
Yeah I was also tired of these high percentages thrown out there without any actual sources. So I checked for myself. It looks like for 2020 currency in circulation increased from (in billions) ~$1800 to ~$2093.5 or around 14%! (again still awful and worse than I expected). [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR) set custom date range 1/1/20-1/1/21 or explore other ranges if you want. The $2 trillion number was much lower than I expected tbh and the historical increases in circulation seem to have less of an impact on inflation rate than I expected too, so I have more questions than answers about what impact the pandemic printing will be.
It's bad. Like really, really fucking bad. But it's not a 22% increase in a year or 25% increase in 6 monI'llths that keeps getting reposted. For 2020 currency in circulation increased from (in billions) ~$1800 to ~$2093.5 or around 14%! (again still awful and worse than I expected). [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR) set custom date range 1/1/20-1/1/21 or explore other ranges if you want. For your inflation question I'll defer to someone way more qualified than me, but it seems like there are a lot more factors that affect inflation, so a trailing 14% inflation is unlikely but technically possible. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% from April 2020 to April 2021, which is brutal and also the worst number since 2008.
I see that the old FRED site is no longer being updated. But other sites are reporting that the Fed is shifting to a monthly report. I doubt stretching the time period covered by the report is a major issue. But killing it all together would be and I would have expected it to be a topic of conversation. It was not. So...
Yeah, the key difference here though is that I think it's a bit more widespread than going to casinos. With the huge amount of media attention going into things combined with stimulus checks, it could very well be significantly more prevalent. I'm doing more research into current default rates, which FRED only does quarterly info, you can get more info through experian and other sources that are more recent, but not as organized or general. Overall credit default rates have gone up, with information available most recently for February and some results in for March. Either my hypothesis is going to age ominously well, or I'm going to be an idiot. Scratch that, either way I'm an idiot saying things he doesn't know nearly enough about.
Thanks! I'm going to be keeping an eye on the FRED data to see if loan amounts are going up in Q1, since if default rates stay the same, while loans go up, that could potentially signal a trend reversal as the market cools and people start defaulting. Or the interest rates go up from the fed and we end up seeing that cause the market cooling off and the inflection point in default rates. Makes me wish I could see default rates in real time!
Yeah, but look at FRED M1 Money Supply chart. Start of 2020 was $4 trillion, and 2020 to today was an extra $15 trillion. So to me, that looks like 75% of all money in circulation.
Id say its melting right now. Another trillion USD just got printed. Look at the FRED M1 money treasury. USD will die out just like old currencies such as gold did.
With the government printing trillions of dollars. Ending the FRED charts that show us the dramatic rise in fiat. They have been running the worlds largest ponzi scheme in history. We need to fight for De-fi and crypto in general. It is the future.
Here's a super obscure one. FRED on stellar blockchain or FREDx on etherium (company is Fred energy). 820 million supply between both versions. They're working on getting on Uniswap now. They're building green technologies and have a marketplace for green tech. I believe their first product begins selling later this year. They also use blockchains to track product use so are tying in some interesting tech. It's currently at a price of .0014xlm on the SDEX, unsure what the etherium price is as it's only on one etherium dex currently. I have some of the ETH variety in my coinbase wallet as well and whatever API that pulls from doesn't have a price yet. But especially if you trade on an Sdex already for a couple bucks you can get a few thousand and see what happens. Personally think it's a cool project but really unsure if there will be any significant price action but got some to support the project and I like to live life on the edge. So there you go, an ultra risky moonshoot shilled for you. I typed this without going back and checking their website/social media so you know dyor not financial advise and all that because I might have remembered something wrong.
BTW, you mention 'the problem of fiat' but that is just as broad as - let's say - go read Wikipedia. Also, USD fiat is not even close to being broken. Too many people with limited knowledge saying so doesn't make it so. Now, it is valid to argue that if it isn't broken now, can it ever be broken later. The answer is a very solid depends. Let's tackle a few key points: inflation, money velocity, money supply, centralization, etc. We'll hold on the etc. ​ Inflation: **(from IMF)** All inflation is - in simple terms - *is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time.* ***Inflation*** *is typically a broad measure, such as the overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country.* Every monetary system on the planet will have inflation, deflation, stagnation, etc. regardless of where you go. So you cant avoid that. How does BTC help? It can or it cant. We assume scarcity will help combat bitcoin prices - and it will - but that assumes that scarcity remains high such that prices go up. (supply/demand) Interestingly enough, to combat fiat inflation, one would need to assume people will flock to BTC when fiat inflation goes up. IE people move to BTC as a safe-haven to protect against fiat inflation. But people can go to a variety of places to store wealth when fiat inflation is on the rise - goats, houses, gold, silver, GPUs; who the hell cares. So while it can help, it assumes people BUY AND HOLD which then increases scarcity, and then in turn prices go up. verdict: tbd ​ Money supply: **(from Investopedia)** *In economics, the money supply refers to all of the cash and currency in circulation within a country. A country’s money supply has a significant effect on a country’s macroeconomic profile, particularly in relation to interest rates, inflation, and the business cycle.* This is a good one to understand. If increasing money supply typically results in lower interest rates, and lower interest rates help grow the economy, then inflation will naturally follow. In other words, increasing the money supply means that we're increasing the access to money (making more available) so we can use it more. e.g. invest in a business, buy a new home, upgrade a home, buy capital equipment, etc. This unfortunately needs to be controlled so we dont run into hyper inflation due to too much growth too fast. Growing too rapidly, too quickly increases prices too fast and wages dont follow fast enough. I dont see BTC helping with money supply because it is fungible. If i can trade it for something else to use as currency, or i can use BTC as currency, then its starts to act and behave like fiat. So, BTC might have an identity crisis - is it a currency, or a store of wealth, or both, or neither. Who am I, says BTC. The issue is that money supply is a mechanism - a lever - to increase growth rates or to reduce growth rates when needed. I dont see BTC doing anything here other than acting as a potential form of money supply which is not what people want to hear. ​ Money Velocity: (from St. Louis Fed aka FRED) *Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply (M1 or M2). It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply--that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP.* This is where I really think BTC - and other Crypto Coins - add tremendous value. The speed of innovation in this space is alarming, amazing, scary, and evolutionary all at once. The things we can do with this new innovation is incredibly vast. The faster, better, more secure, etc. etc. etc., we can spend X (fiat, Coins, etc.) the better. People don't have to wait for transactions and can spend just as fast as it is earned. This is a major benefit to an economy given the risk associated with holding "money" - not invested in long-term investments, or spent quickly again on personal investment. This also opens the door to creating a more egalitarian environment where anyone can start a business with very little to no cost to launch. Remember, now BTC is starting to quack like a duck, walk like a duck, and you know the rest. ​ Centralization: this is obvious and the big sell of BTC and others like it. This is the marketing pitch. This is the defining attribute of our wonderful hero BTC. All of the above is owned and managed by a government/quasi government system that could run well in a vacuum but our political leaders often try to press the brakes or the gas for 'political' reasons.' Intervention has gotten out of hand. So, BTC is in the hands of the people while fiat is in the hands of the system. That said, BTC works within a system and not out of a system and is therefore always going to be bound by uncle sam's rules. How the system tries to absorb BTC (coins in general) will ultimately determine BTC's fate. I think that its too early to know for sure, but the world system is probably ready for change. But be aware, BTC is 2nd to other ideas previously floated around trying solve fiat problems. Crap, even the system itself is trying to figure that out. It would just be nice if the people had a bit more say in the matter. And this is where i think we the people have a major head start. We have essentially operated in a parallel economy created and managed by us. Now how do we positively integrate our parallel systems into a cohesive not mutually exclusive system such that we can have centralization where it matters and decentralization where it matters. Both are necessary - this is fact. Now that the technology/innovation is here, i think we finally have the right momentum and weight behind Crypto Coins that we can meet at the table and influence our leaders to head into the right direction. Ethereum is doing the best on this front by showing and providing value and letting it speak for itself. IE has first mover advantage in some very interesting key financial innovations. ​ What is the point? BTC is not a get rich scheme. It is not a messiah of financial freedom, it is not pretty much what most say it is. BTC is innovation at its finest and can provide many positive benefits to society if and only if we can agree on CONOPS. More specifically, i dont like all or nothing approaches or bad mouthing the other guy at the other end of the table. Merging innovation like this into a global system is no easy feat. And the truth is, when our government wants to, it can be a positive force of momentum. We forget that. ​ So i leave you with this. Imagine if, the developers, brains, visionaries, of crypto currencies created a no kidding working group to PARTNER with our government entities to find a positive solution to our integration problem?
the sources are in the videos and linked in description; im linking videos because one of them also goes through a neat history how measuring unemployment in the US came about: simple explainer using FRED stats: https://youtu.be/HbptN4P9cXg simple explainer with historical background: https://youtu.be/HbptN4P9cXg personal finance advisor using data from the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity: https://youtu.be/av4mku9YxPM apologies, i think i might be remembering old data but it seems to be 1/3 ppl of working age who want a job are without instead of 1/2
Does FRED stand for Federal Reserve Economic Data? And the app is called FRED Economic Data. So it’s called *federal reserve economic data economic data*
When I want to remember how much the government is falling asleep behind the wheel and not fighting inflation, I look at the FRED M1 money stock from 2000 to current... it’s just sad, and funny
For sure, and the FRED Chart for M2... up 21% in the last year. In fact, the fed is either so concerned or full of shame, they discontinued all future publications of M2 as of THIS MONTH.
First you are dead wrong, there has been. Go to FRED and look for yourself. That is if you are defining inflation by CPI, a major point of mine that you completely dodged. Even if CPI were steady or decreasing, for reasons Mises put best, that doesn’t mean at all there wasn’t inflation. Inflation directly occurs from the act of printing money. Also of course we have asset inflation- this was about a rebuttal towards the sophomoric arguments of the left that simply link to CPI. The fact that you seem to agree with a significant portion and sentiment of the post, yet call us dumb, is laughable.
Just look at the FRED M1 chart. You might want to hodl a bit longer.
Just search the FRED datasets. They have data on a lot of different commodities. The formula I used was (BTC price) / (price per US chicken lb \* 3 lbs)