AAL

Squirr3I

Shorted $AAL at vwap here am I smart?

AJ_Grey

I don't know but AAL has been the most active stock recently.

fenstapuza

Der lange AAL schlackert im Nebel der Nacht

DrSenorChuckles

AAL over valued like crazy

silverfutes

One of my biggest winners right now is $AAL, and I’m not really sure how I feel about it.

Wheelio

Why was AAL so heavily traded today? No AAL specific news. I see references to falling oil prices but that doesn't seem specific to AAL.

karik01

Puts on AAL, ridiculous price action this past month

imustbegthequestion

Now that we've all had lunch, and the drip is now a tsunami, can we talk about how AAL stole my racquets? I'm calling the FEDZ. You should call AAPL and retain JPM and WFC. DO NOT CALL TFC. AND EVERY CREDIT UNION IS GREAT. ALSO PNC CAUSE GO CANES AND GO PACK. Um any other manna today Megatron? No? Then I'm going to take a nap. ☠️🤣🫣🤷🏿‍♂️🤡🌈👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿💪🏿🇬🇭🥇🇺🇸🇬🇧😂⚽🐐🤡

silverfutes

Thank you Elon for saving my $AAL calls, but I still can't forgive you for $PL. Please stop calling me.

thctetro

Write the ducking post, put the pictures, put your ducking positions and explain the ducking ticket with your positions. Wtf is AAL? American Airlines? Is that? You didnt explain shit. I should guess what other people told you 2 months ago in this sub? FFS

silverfutes

lol, never expected $AAL to carry my account, today is wak.

Moist-Guava-732

AAL just wont go down buy 16.5c

Moist-Guava-732

the only stock i want to go down AAL has retard strength

Moist-Guava-732

that dip on AAL got bought so fast i didnt have time to move my bear spreads

Moist-Guava-732

im down 3x what i was up earlier this morning even with a bunch of winners like KEEL AAL purely due to the theta crush that happened after the first hour on my july 17 options

Moist-Guava-732

look at AAL chart for the past couple hours literally pinned between 15.85 and 15.95 to destroy all options

Moist-Guava-732

look at AAL just perfectly consolidating at 15.5 for 4 straight hours now look at AAL premarket where it was exactly at 15.5 stocks never move when the market is open just never ending theta decay

jrex035

We're more than 100 days into the worst energy crisis in history and somehow AAL has *far* better returns than XOM since the war began. Amazing stuff really, 10/10 no notes

imustbegthequestion

I'm still shorting AAL cause they stole my tennis racquets and think I don't care. They should all Ed Bastian and DAL. UAL all the way to EWR. I no longer give any fucks. Ported them all.

sjguy1288

I'm running on AAL and TSLL. Both seems to trade in a channel

imustbegthequestion

Strike. Hedge. !banbot strike sandisk on AMZN 1 TB USD 2 day delivery due 06/21/2026. Strike hedge 55 USD. Strike hehe 57. Strike hedge 570 ghc. Temu. She in. +6. Strike hehe 52 strike Wilson. Short long limit low strike AAL. Strike block DAL. Strike Skyteam. Strike United Airlines. strike Chiraq. September 2026. Hedge 10/31/2026-12/31/2026. Strike +5.

imustbegthequestion

I'm team ONEWORLD. AAL STOLE MY RACQUETS ON A FLIGHT FROM CLT TO JAX AND DIDN'T TURN THEM IN. JUNIOR. BABA IS TALKING TO YOU. I WILL CALL THE FEDS YOU IDIOTS. ASK DAL. I FLY UNITED FROM NEWARK NOW YOU IDIOTS. AND I HAVE A CREDIT CARD. SHEESH. READ THE CONSTITUTION ON THE SENATE'S WEBSITE. IT'S NOT THE HARD.

Tall-Illustrator543

If the war starts up again, AAL is dropping below $12.50... again

imustbegthequestion

Time for the news drop. Should I fly AAL, DAL, or UAL business class? I need a nap and a clean toilet. #UCBDTHWC

Happy-Champion1661

go read the reason for DELL and HP jumps over the past week. DELL also has taco "buy" signal. Airlines pumped so what? The only record high (of the big ones) is Delta, which is the one Berkshire bought last quarter. UAL and AAL are not even ATH, they simply recovered the dip caused by oil Iran situation. And a lot of people already questioned why Berkshire would buy Delta in such a bad period for the sector, there are people that think this is NOT a good move even tho it's printing. \--- Company are making money.. yeah I bet. For now. Market is forward looking. Are we pricing in the downside? No. We did that in March. The new story is "AI growth". But AI does not make money for now, or rather few companies make money from it. It's mostly just huge losses. AI is useful, will it be a successful money printer? Idk. There is also midterms later this year which is another potential issue for markets. \--- I can tell you this is the absolute worst job market for tech since covid, that oil shock will show itself in the next months and highly affect prices, leading to even higher inflation and rate hikes, which combined with AI massive layoffs that we're seeing now, will crash the economy. Private credit issue is still there, we just forgot about it for now. Companies keep making profits but valuations remain elevated, with certain companies trading on literally no fundamentals and in general high PE overall. \--- Will this bad scenario happen? Probably not. I am saying this is a possibility. But saying everything is fine is just not true imo.

sjguy1288

I second AAL. I've been selling puts on them for a few months now. I do have enough to covered a call if needed. But I bought those 100 shares back when it was $10.40 a share.

JimTheCodeGuru

Great question. I like cheap options like AAL or LCID. Currently got a put on HTZ because, well, I guess you don't need a reason when they're cheap 😏

silverfutes

Lol, my only green is Kraft & AAL. See y’all next year.

spacemoses

I had AAL puts because, you know, jet fuel would seemingly be fucked. But I guess that was a dumb move.

imustbegthequestion

Can everyone short AAL? I need help cause they stole my tennis racquets.

RandomRocketScience

Honestly the market is full of opportunities right now. Im super bullish on oil, BNO for easy exposure. AAL puts are super cheap if you want a proxy, bought 60DTE 15puts for 1.75, with the stock trading at 13.90ish. Lots of software is beaten down to the point of being excellent value picks. ADBE, WDAY are two of my favourites. Accenture is also beaten down, but I have not yet decided if its a good pick. Might be worth a look, though. Some safe things Im liking right now are: RSG, WM, VIE (french), EOAN (german). They are all providing services to municipalties, etc. RSG and WM and waste management, VIE is more water focused, EON is energy. Good dividends, solid growth. Boring but good value picks. I dont mid SGOV either, with rate hikes on the horizon and inflation rising steeply.

imustbegthequestion

No matter what the news says, I'm pumping all but AAL. I'm still mad about my racquets.

imustbegthequestion

Long put on AAL... They stole my racquets.

Bagholder147

I bought 2 NVD calls. A SPY call a QQQ call. Some poet puts. CZR calls. TZA calls. SONY calls. AAL calls oh an one SPY put lotto for tommorow.

Ill-Mousse-3817

The US airlines in 2025 stopped hedging, EU still hedges. Asia is mixed, as far as I understand. I am aiming for AAL, JBLU, JETS Jan 2027. Biggest risk imo is Trump putting oil/fuel export restrictions.

OptionsWheelTrader

The top tickers under $20 being traded by the user community on [OptionsWheelTrader.com](https://optionswheeltrader.com/) are: SOFI, BULL, F, AAL, SOUN, BBAI, GRAB Note: Not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/trade any of them. Some of these are stable with low volatility/premiums (e.g. F, AAL). Others are risky and very volatile, but offer higher premiums. My recommendation on this - don't just look at the premium. Research the company and only buy if you would be happy to hold it long term. If the market dips, you don't want to be left holding a bad stock. Also - if new to trading options, consider learning using a paper trading account before you commit real capital.

Da_Cum_Man

Thinking about buying 5DTE shorts on American Airlines $AAL what's yalls opinion?

toomstoned

All I have right now is AAL puts and Palantir calls 🥴

8RIPKobe24-4L

Yeah that’s true. I have about $10k left and want to put it in something good. Lost about $4k usd on NKE and need to recoup some of the losses. Currently im in AAL, MSFT, ORACLE, and ADBE

_ranier

AAL long!!

apesmarket_io

That missing fuel curve date is actually a pretty important detail. If DAL/UAL clearly disclosed their curve assumptions and AAL didn’t, then the thesis is less just “fuel estimate looks wrong” and more “AAL gave less transparent guidance around the most important variable.” I think sticking to peer guidance comparisons is reasonable if you don’t have access to the exact curve. The cleaner argument might be: AAL’s implied fuel assumption looks materially different from peers, they didn’t explain the curve as clearly, and the market may punish that if Q2 forces a reset. The one thing I’d be careful with is separating “shady” from “less transparent.” Shady may be true, but less transparent is easier to defend if someone pushes back.

MarsTellus13

To be clear I have no idea how they'd do that and I'd explicitly bet against it being possible in this environment but that would break the thesis. Also forgot to address question 1. I didn't dig all the way into the meat of AAL and their peers' guidance justifications except to confirm that AAL didn't say anything (or field any hard questions) about their fuel price estimates during the earnings call. I didn't mention this, but I also thought it was mighty shady for them to be the only ones not to put their fuel curve date in their guidance - it came up in the earnings transcript - while at least United and Delta were careful to fully explain their $4.30 curve and where they set their date. One thing I am curious about is what the curve looked like on the date AAL shared but since I don't know if they were using crude or some airline-specific curve I don't have access to I stuck with the guidance comparisons.

apesmarket_io

That’s a pretty clear risk framework tbh. August is basically the event-driven trade, January is more the “thesis has time to play out” version. Cutting if Q2 doesn’t trigger the reaction makes sense, especially because otherwise the trade can slowly turn from a defined thesis into just waiting and hoping. The fuel fix point is interesting too. That’s probably the cleanest invalidation outside of price action: if AAL can credibly reduce the fuel risk, the whole short setup gets weaker.

apesmarket_io

Yeah that makes sense. I’d probably separate it into two questions: 1. is AAL’s guidance actually unrealistic versus peers 2. will the market care enough, fast enough, before the options decay The first part seems easier to argue from the fuel assumptions. The second part is trickier because even if you’re right, the timing has to line up. I’d be curious what you’re using as the “I’m wrong” signal here. Is it mainly oil/fuel moving lower, AAL revising expectations, or price action not reacting before a certain date?

apesmarket_io

This is a good example of why thesis updates matter more than just the original trade idea. The core question seems to be whether AAL’s fuel assumptions are meaningfully too optimistic versus peers, and whether that shows up as a guidance reset in Q2. The part I’d pressure test is timing. Even if the fuel-cost thesis is right, airlines can move hard on headlines around oil, geopolitics, demand, or financing before the numbers actually confirm it. So for me the trade comes down to: is the Q2 guidance miss likely enough, and soon enough, to overcome the headline risk and option decay?

MarsTellus13

Mixed bag since it sounded like the feds really did try to bail them out and their (few remaining) passengers gotta go somewhere I guess...not that I know anything about their routes. And you may be right. I do think the whole sector is going to crater and AAL's going to fall the hardest because they bs'd their guidance. Doesn't mean this is the most efficient way to bet on elevated oil prices and inflation and I don't know statistically what AAL's bad numbers are worth in a vacuum.

Mental-At-ThirtyFive

I never understood naked puts unless they are for income - aka Tasty's ~50DTE entry/21DRTE exit - as a retail investor If I am outright negative on AAL (I don't have a view), I will 1) do pair trades. (AAL vs UAL or DAL as it is a zero sum game within the airline industry. The weak remains weak until there is a airline specific big event) or 2) sell call spreads Also, consider what Spirit news does for your thesis

rithsleeper

Sorry for late response, got swamped and wanted to make sure I read your whole thing. I mean I totally see your logic. It makes so much sense, but I just see the options priced correctly for the risk. Options are definitely the way to go to leverage a position, but I think you really are trying to play an indirect play of oil. I just always say why not play the direct play instead of a derivative of a derivative? AAL is already a shitty company so maybe that will be your ace in the hole. Problem I always have with these plays is I’ll get “the move” as it trickles down some and my options will theta decay and the extrinsic value will just plummet more than expected. Then I’m looking at my PL and basically flat to a bit up. Then I’m stuck. Do I hold for duration? Then things calm down on the original narrative and a slight winner moved to a loser. Sometimes I’ll have enough to “make it free” but even then it defeats the original point of the trade and then my volume isn’t there. Good luck though. Think you are over thinking this one and it’s all priced to perfection. You are essentially betting on the Iran conflict continuing for a long time. Just go to kashi and place a bet there then would be my direct play.

LushLustPin

Love how AAL is the only one pretending they can see fuel prices out to 2026 while everyone else is basically saying "yeah no idea." That combo of rosy guidance + fresh debt raise the next day is sketchy as hell. Your put ladder actually looks pretty sensible here.

MarsTellus13

Neither does AAL. But cruiselines are an angle I haven't looked into yet - good idea

Anal_holocost

Anyone knows why AAL is mooning other than because fuck my puts?

MarsTellus13

Hooray! A helpful and challenging comment! Since I posted this I bought some $8s that didn't have any OI on Monday (I can't prove that - but if $8 had been an option then I know I would have jumped on it) I see myself selling or rolling way before expiry unless things are truly dire this summer and I get greedy. I'm very much an amateur here and this is really an attempt to play on my question of where the disconnect between futures and physical oil prices hits equities the hardest. Since this appears to be uncharted territory I'm not risking a lot - the answer might simply be that it never hits at all and eventually normalizes. But on paper, the oil futures/physical disconnect was historically wide a few weeks ago. They're converging more recently...but paper is moving up to meet physical which is what I expected. And the airlines set guidance using figures disconnected from reality. Sounds bad to me. I did my best to lay out my thought process but I can't pretend I have firm, technically-defined plans - and I'm not betting enough of my own money to hurt if I get it wrong. If oil goes where I think it's going and stays there for any length of time AAL is in big trouble, and they set their guidance in a way that makes everything worse. That's about as far as my thought process goes, and I've only got maybe 2 percent of my roll in this. I don't think bankruptcy conversations push the price below 5 right away but I also don't know how bad guidance is going to have to be if they end up paying 4.40/gallon through this quarter and canceling flights in June then start chewing through cash to service their debt.

MarsTellus13

Stock goes to zero. Puts are worth their maximum value. Napkin math they probably have enough liquidity to survive a few bad - even catastrophic - years but at their debt levels I think people would start talking about bankruptcy much sooner and the share price would respond accordingly. The crazy thing to me was AAL shutting down the merger talk publicly enough for United's CEO to respond.

SaltyPlantain1503

What happens to stock price if AAL declares bankruptcy? Even a discussion of merger with UAL was crazy to me - I think they are in a terrible financial position and all your points are valid.

ThisGuyEdward

AAL, EPM, LASE, do something pls :(

MarsTellus13

Nah, Q1 dropped 4/23. Q2 earnings estimated for 7/23/26. My targets depend on what happens with the energy crisis. I bought $10s for January because I expect AAL to drop 20-30 percent by end of year based on fuel costs and big earnings/guidance misses. They set records for revenue last quarter and still bled money. I bought $5s because if energy prices stay extremely elevated and demand drops (2008) I think their survival comes into play. They had $34.7 billion in debt and just issued another $1.14 billion in bonds yesterday 4/27. I'm certainly not accusing anyone of anything but it is interesting that the day after they released guidance with some questionable-but-legal fuel estimates they closed on a round of funding for new fuel-efficient aircrafts...

MarsTellus13

I bought January puts at $5 and $10. I thought about buying to time a drop on Q2 earnings but the price difference when last checked the chain pushed me to longer-term. There's still a chance that even with a bad Q2 miss AAL chooses to avoid changing guidance meaningfully and that may delay the market's reaction. I cannot stress enough how insane I think it was to guide $4 for fuel a few days after United guided at $4.30. It's either bad luck because of how erratic the oil futures curve has been or "bad luck" because they wanted guidance to look stronger.

AgeFew3109

What’s your AAL price target and time frame? Q2 earnings already came out no?

MarsTellus13

Care to share? You beat me by a few weeks. AAL picked an interesting time to take on more debt today, too.

No-Consequence-8768

It will have small HTB fee and Divs. vs AAL hasn't paid Divs in long time

DKtwilight

Holy shit I just looked at AAL and what an absolute garbage of a stock. Why would anyone in their right mind ever invest in that

MarsTellus13

No, they don't. I linked to an article about it. And AAL's 10k explicitly says they have no financial hedges, and that every 1 cent of fuel cost increase represents $50m per year in increased costs.

Knickerbockerstape

Good write up. I started buying AAL puts on 4/9 There’s a lot more to the equation here. We’ll see how it all plays out.

MarsTellus13

Please reread the post. They averaged $2.39/gallon over 2025 according to their own 10-k and that number is at (or a hair above) the jet fuel spot price resource I linked to. If I were going to pick another short I'd pick UAL (and may still). But they guided at $4.30 and that is in the realm of possibility; AAL chose to pick a more favorable spread in their guidance for whatever reason and prices are already 20+ cents beyond their figure.

FaultNo1046

They all buy options to protect against fuel price hikes. Read that a while ago on an AAL press release.

LaggingIndicator

Airlines buy fuel in huge bulk and get large discounts. I believe last year they paid something like $2.00/gallon. You’re that confident the price of fuel more than doubles AND they can’t make it up with increasing ticket prices while all airlines are reporting demand is STRONG? If anything I think their fuel costs are wildly pessimistic. Another difference between AAL/UAL/DAL is that UAL and DAL travel more overseas where these shortages hit hardest. AAL is less exposed to fuel shortages than UAL and DAL. DAL has a refinery to mitigate some of the crack spreads and UAL does not. UAL with their heavy TPAC flying is probably most exposed and actually has room to fall rather than AAL which is already priced in the dumps.

Smooth-Limit-1712

Man, this is some seriously deep research you've put in. I remember those unhedged airline plays burning folks in the past, and your read on AAL's guidance against the spot prices is really sharp. The Iran situation and jet fuel ripple effects are definitely something to watch. Appreciate you sharing such a detailed thesis and positions. Good luck with the trade, hope it plays out for you.

mina_knallenfalls

AAL doesn't price their stock, investors do, and they already know. That's why it's already down -30%.

WithMyxomatosis

Nice write up, however I think this (and a lot of other prognosticating posts) miss a big factor, namely, the market is irrational and will look out as far as it needs to to avoid bad news. The thought right now is “this conflict will end, eventually”. It doesn’t matter if AAL has a few rough quarters due to fuel prices, people will buy the dips because they hang on to the word “eventually”. Most people don’t even look at discrepancies between forward estimates and economic facts that run counter, they just tune in briefly around earnings season, and then tune back out.  Unless AAL starts grounding flights and using words like “indeterminate”, people just don’t care.

MarsTellus13

Ask AAL. They guided fuel prices at $4 in earnings a few days ago. Their competitors picked $4.30. That's a $325 million unexpected loss if Delta and United are right and AAL is wrong. That's basically the whole point.

ThisGuyEdward

$EPM $AAL needs to do something :(

realizniguhnit

By lower capital I mean some where around at least 10K. With 10K, u find leaps that are somewhere around 1.00 with decent volume preferably a well known and traded stock under $20 and trade the levels/bounces. A good example would be AAL leaps since the war based volatility has started.

txholdup

I do enjoy finding a gem who got mentioned briefly on Bloomberg and after jotting down the name, I find something I like. I like patterns as well. I bought AAL and held it for 6 whole days over the past 2 weeks and made 27% quickly. Those are enjoyable as well. I wouldn't hold an airline stock long term, but I have traded American at least 6 times in the past 2 years.

_Beer_Budget_

The real question is who believes AAL is doing well? Their in major debt and institutional are hyping it up for the unload before the real drop. They dropped expectation for the upcoming quarter because jet fuel is going to be killing them and travel restrictions aren't lifting anytime soon

PaltryCharacter

an hour ago I bought some puts on AAL expiring tomorrow that have inexplicably decided to make money. So I suspect it will rally tonight, my numbers rarely turn green like this. Guess I'll wait for it turn red again before I do anything

AgeFew3109

Sold AAL shares and Bought my ccl puts right before the dip. Am I a genius now?

dwanefish

AAL is determined to stay right in the middle of my strangle until expiration then huh. fuken hell

Andthesuch

VM tell me about AAL post earnings

justjoe099

VM thoughts on AAL?

Express_Track1571

VM $AAL thoughts? Shit load of puts I think

akunisg

forgive me but I don't see how a possible eNeRgY CrIsIs has to do with a country that has DEINDUSTRIALIZED and is an EXPORTER of oil AAL is going to zero, though, get your puts

Glum_Anteater1250

UAL announces a hostile bid for AAL .2 shares of UAL for each share of AAL..../s everybody and their cousin are buying cheap AAL calls by the bucketful...

stupdizbu

> increasing energy costs that they will probably hedge at a higher cost AAL is fucked that is for sure UAL ... unknown DAL owns their own refinery so they are the best bet... problem isn't only energy, it is a collapse of routes to consolidate half empty planes that will drive airfare higher which means lower sales .... not looking good for airlines even if oil dumps under $80

Beagle001

AAL and United having earnings this week. How is puts not in play on that?

ZealousidealLong7708

I just buy AAL and XOM at the lows assuming Trump is lying all the time. I been right 3 out of 3 times so far and netted some modest gains.

Pin-Last

Doesn’t matter, they’re both great buys even after the crazy 2 day spike, I have high hopes AAL will help me make my nut this year.

Pin-Last

been DCA since it hit 399, in at 386. Recklessly large position lol. Jassy’s “not doing this on a hunch“ press release only made me more bullish on data center buildout in general. 475 seems realistic for 2026. That & nvda+ecosystem, meta & amzn, crwv/nbis/poet, & rebounds in saas (I’m barely even down there lol), cyber, home builders, AAL/UAL, & financials… should be enough to make my nut this year.

PalpitationSmooth992

look at that beautiful AAL pump after hours

Pin-Last

Me too plus more cyber, TTWO, SaaS that could kill me, & MSFT. Plus quality tech, all the big usual suspects. Outside tech, AAL is a steal & XHB/ITB will bounce eventually, I can be patient.

fimnjc

Profit/ chickened out. I picked 2 weaker airlines to trade against the oil price swings. JBLU and AAL seem to move quite a bit in either direction depending on what oil is doing. Building my confidence is going to be a big part I realized.

silverfutes

I’m going to the moon baby, and I’m flying AAL. Wait, wat?

Ossa_Fracta

Yeah terrible play, there probably won't be international travel by then end of the summer. Short UAL and AAL

ULTIMATENUTZ

This fear has actually been cited by airline mgmt as a reason to shy away from hedging. I think it was UAL’s CEO (maybe AAL?) who basically said the catastrophe scenarios they would hedge for might be worthless if the event actually materializes.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** AAL, ULCC, AALG (with a side of TQQQ & SOXL) **Direction:** Up (Buying the dip) **Prognosis:** Scale into AAL and ULCC shares on weakness. If AAL drops to $9.98, sell it to leverage up into AALG (2x Daily AAL ETF) for the bounce. **Risk Management:** Setting aside exactly $10,125 for the "Reserve for mines + tanker sunk" scenario (Stage 5 of the spreadsheet). **Irony Level:** Extremely High. "Let's make some bread (safely)" while planning to pivot a $365k portfolio into 2x leveraged airline ETFs and triple-leveraged tech (TQQQ/SOXL) during an oil crisis.

Pin-Last

glad I’ve deployed about half my free capital, glad I haven’t deployed the other half. Crushed MAG7, enterprise software, XHB, AAL

Pin-Last

In addition to software I like XHB, AAL/UAL, META, NVDA. AMZN isn’t bad.

__nameless____

If UAL or AAL going up a bit on open, imma buy some puts

Veritatis-Cupitor

Recently bought tons of UCO, BNO and VIX calls and tons of SPY, AAL and LUV puts. That’s your salvation. NFA.

Retaining-Wall

I made a bit of money shorting AAL last week, lol.

Pin-Last

actually nibbling AAL