Reddit Posts
Covered Calls (Half of Holdings on Margin) on Small Account
Hear me out here: AAL puts.
Hear me out here. AAL puts.
16 JUNE 2026 ,WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST WINNERS PRE-MARKET
AAL just announced Starlink wifi on 500+ planes and the stock popped. Is this actually a big deal?
$AISX.v at $0.02 on the TSX-Venture (Canada):AISIX Solutions Inc. Secures Three Year $780,000 Wildfire Catastrophe Modeling Contract with Major Canadian Insurer
Started a small position in AAL… feels like a pure sentiment play
AAL – Are Fuel Costs About to Ground Airline Margins?
Thoughts on DAL (Delta Air Lines) in Light of Recent Middle East Flare-Ups?
CEO got fired, founder came back with 2M stock options, CFO bought $199K, a congressman bought too. Here's what I found digging into SMPL
CEO got fired, founder came back with 2M stock options, CFO bought $199K, a congressman bought too. Here's what I found digging into SMPL
Government shutdown hits airlines and AAL stock ignores reality
American Airlines (AAL), why such daily volume?
What deep-value play are you cooking up on under-the-radar stocks?
New to options. first call went way better than expected, however…
Once again $OPEN had the highest daily trading volume - followed by $NIO, $NVDA, $INTC, $PLTR, & $AAL
Moody’s revised Air Canada’s outlook from Positive to Stable while affirming its Ba2 corporate rating and related debt ratings.
How much do you think this SPY PUT will be down Monday?
How much do you think this pit will be down on Monday?
"Advanced" option strategies (e.g. straddles) for the earnings week
Delta beats earnings and restores forecast — UAL +14.3%, AAL +12.7%, ALK +9%, LUV +8%, DAL +12%
Delta beats earnings and restores forecast — UAL +14.3%, AAL +12.7%, ALK +9%, LUV +8%, DAL +12%
Couldn’t sell because my flight didn’t have a wifi. Now I’m holding calls at the ATH this year.
AAL Stock in 2025: A High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunity?
JetBlue terminates AAL alliance, but why?
JetBlue Scraps Alliance with American Airlines, but why if it was profitable? Flirting with other suitor’s?
JetBlue scarps American Airlines partnership, but why?
IT STARTED SHOWING IN AIRLINES, WILL SPILL INTO REAL ESTATE AND THEN BANKS.
(04/24) Interesting Stocks Today - China says there are no trade negotiations!
(04/24) Interesting Stocks Today - China says there are no trade negotiations!
Best pair trades right now? Thoughts on the following?
Yes, another $VIX post - $11M+ between the C25 and C40 July 16. More pain ahead probably.
My portfolio idea - Going into 2023 betting on supply chains
AAL - American Airlines down 10% because of deltas numbers?
Boeing's Dip Sparks Rise in AAL, RACE, WEN Stocks
Forget $BA - sympathy plays will be hot - $AAL / $DAL / $LUV / $EADSY...
Forget $BA - $AAL / $DAL / $LUV / $EADSY...
$151,880 Total Gains and only 2 losing trades in 2023
Long Airline stocks Jets AAL UAL as of today
US airline stocks down today?
Can anyone tell me what max profit actually means?
Silly Stock Analysis: Can you make money by buying a stock on a given day of the week and selling it on a given day of the week
How do you close butterfly spreads in robinhood?
Can American Airlines fly above reined-in estimates in Q1? (NASDAQ:AAL)
Don't overlook these 3 upcoming earnings reports.
American Airlines Got Hammered Today! What Investors Should Keep An Eye On
American Airlines Got Hammered Today! What Investors Should Keep An Eye On
American Airlines Got Hammered Today! What Investors Should Keep An Eye On
Interra Copper (IMCX.c IMIMF) officially combines with Alto Verde Copper.
2023-03-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
What can I say? I am hodling till the next bull market (maybe it is here?)
Most Important Earnings of the Day in the Stock Market 1/26/2023
Most Important Earnings of the Day in the Stock Market 1/26/2023
Why I'm getting AAL calls as an easy earning play
Why are airline companies still down if 99% pre-COVID traffic is expected this year?
Mentions
How are we feeling about AAL fellow regards
How are we feeling about AAL gentleregards
Putts on $TSLA and $AAL. The king is traveling to Canada via @ORD. #AAL style store stole the king's tennis racquets. He bitches on here about it. He hasn't forgotten. Pepperidge Farm NEVER FORGETS THAT WE'RE ONLY FIGHTING ABOUT WATER RIGHTS. AND Y'ALL CHOSE TO BE THE BUDGET AIRLINE FOR THE US OF AMERICA MILITARY. I WANT ALL TRIPS IN FIRST CLASS BEFORE I SEE YOU CROSS 00000.75.000000000 DOLLARS FOR 1 TOKEN. DON'T TRY THE GANG. WE GEORGE UP ION THIS BITCH.
Go long on airlines exposed to oil prices. Some of them haven't fully priced in peace, like AAL
Zacks took a break from reviewing burger chains to gripe about $AAL
Love AAL is still going up but lol is going up
How the hell did AAL go up 3% when gas also went up 1.5%
I heard it used to be good for the wheel but months ago when I bought it, it dove down.... It's on an upward trend now and back at where I bought in so my calls will start to be assigned soon... I want them gone to free up cash so I can work just the large and medium caps.... My accounts are in transitions to a different stock selection criteria and method.... I call it "Directional Chaos" because I keep making changes to it or a whim cause me to do something against my plan or rules... Directional Chaos... Use APLD, CCL, AAL, oh and there's plenty others... look for upward trending price, sudden drops for small reasons , growth in earnings the previous 4 quarters, an RSI learn how it applies... I sell shorts to open at 20 delta.... I buy some long call LEAPS at 60 delta to, I close positions when the delta hits 10 or lower unless I just need capital to buy something else that is on sale... I don't plan on buying CHWY again until maybe next winter after Christmas season... maybe the funk is seasonal... but yeah..... seemed like a long wait and I need my theta to burn faster than CHWY provides...
I’m doing the same thing. Going even higher on margin (only 28% equity percentage). But to limit risk, I am letting covered calls run ITM as much as possible. So if for some reason the market or an individual stock tanks I won’t get a margin call. I do leave a slight buffer on the 28% too. My overall strategy then is to roll on down days. This maximizes the amount of credit on the roll. If for some reason the stock tanks sharply, I close out or let the calls expire worthless then regroup. I just did this for SOFI…16.5/17.0 strike calls went worthless post earnings, then I sold 17.5 strike CCs once the stock popped up again. I don’t panic when the stock goes way ITM. Either it comes back down later, or it gets called away and capital goes elsewhere. I do think it will help to diversify, especially don’t get all stocks that swing together. If gas prices shoot up, your portfolio goes down in unison, especially F and AAL. Try adding healthcare stocks like PFE, consumer staples like GIS or GAP, maybe even precious metals like SLV as a buffer. OP feel free to PM me. Would love to bounce ideas around with someone working the same strategy!
I've been ordering groceries with same day delivery with Amazon Prime. Amzn is eating into the already low-margin groceries business. Be careful. I practiced CC'ed on AAL when I got started, I think that's great it's come up from $12-10 to where it is today. I think SOFI is underpriced given its killer earnings. My rule: Buy 1000 shares of Stock. Only sell 5 cons of CC at a time. Take premiums and reinvest in the stock. Stagger the sells, target peaks when you can. Good luck! Consider wheeling CSPs when your CCs get called away too.
The part that gets missed here is that the margin quietly flips the risk profile of the covered call. The whole safety pitch of a CC is worst case I own shares I already wanted. On 50 percent margin it is not really covered in the way that matters, it is a short put financed by a loan, and the loan is a fixed number that does not fall when the shares do. The bigger issue is the basket. AAL, SOFI and F are all high beta names that trade off the same macro tape, so they tend to drop together rather than offset each other. Four names under 20 dollars feels diversified but it is closer to one leveraged bet on risk appetite staying on. If two of them gap down in the same week your margin equity falls faster than the share value because the borrowed part stays constant, and the covered calls cap your upside so you can never rebuild that buffer on the bounce. That combination, capped upside plus levered downside plus correlated names, is the setup that turns a 1 percent a week plan into a forced sale at the low. And the margin interest is a guaranteed drag the 1 percent has to clear first, so your real hurdle to beat just holding the shares unlevered is higher than it looks.
AAL has the worst gd food in business class and in their "Flagship" lounges.
https://preview.redd.it/gkdoojphw8hh1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4081b42ad6b5b11f10e2e8f1f6936f81def8d3e2 No gates available so just chilling since last 30 mins. AC leaking water. Puts on AAL.
**BanBet Lost** — /u/fenstapuza (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **AAL** ▲ | $18.14 → $21.00 | +15.8% | 4w 2d | Lost |
Warsh is in the pilot seat of AAL11.
AAL has been my money glitch
stop buying calls on semis start buying long calls on oversold stocks with low IV BMY BSX NU AAL KO
**AAL** ^(21 AUG 15c) **BSX** ^(15 JAN 60c) **GRAB** ^(16 OCT 4c) **NU** ^(18 SEP 15c) **PEP** ^(18 SEP 155c)
AAL -8%; my calls -$800 AAL +2%; my calls +$58 Fk math.
# calls on HL PATH AAL JOBY
My AAL poots gonna print?
Puts on AAL. Travel is down and jet fuel is expensive.
I got puts on AAL for next week’s earnings.
My 0DTE AAL $16 Puts are looking nice rn
I’m on the other side of this trade. Their 2026 guidance was built around $4 jet fuel and more than $4 billion in added fuel expense. During the war spot fuel prices hit $4.88, and it’s $3.09 today. Because AAL runs on razor thin margins any drop in fuel is an enormous boon to the bottom line. But what does the math say. For every 5% it’s roughly $3 a gallon fuel forecast falls it lifts EPS at Delta, Southwest, and United by 10% to 15%, and at American close to $50. American gets five times the earnings torque of its rivals from the same drop of fuel. Yes, this is a more speculative play but I’m taking the other side of this trade. I’m doing covered calls CC Jan 27 $25. See you on the other side.
I’m going with calls on AAL have you seen how much they spend on lobbying in the past 90 days? It’s a lot. My spidey senses are tingling
monday AAL ceo announces they exiting the airline business and refocusing on flying ai datacenters rebranding as american airline Ai. Stock to 100$ by eow.
Shorted $AAL at vwap here am I smart?
I don't know but AAL has been the most active stock recently.
Der lange AAL schlackert im Nebel der Nacht
AAL over valued like crazy
One of my biggest winners right now is $AAL, and I’m not really sure how I feel about it.
Why was AAL so heavily traded today? No AAL specific news. I see references to falling oil prices but that doesn't seem specific to AAL.
Puts on AAL, ridiculous price action this past month
Now that we've all had lunch, and the drip is now a tsunami, can we talk about how AAL stole my racquets? I'm calling the FEDZ. You should call AAPL and retain JPM and WFC. DO NOT CALL TFC. AND EVERY CREDIT UNION IS GREAT. ALSO PNC CAUSE GO CANES AND GO PACK. Um any other manna today Megatron? No? Then I'm going to take a nap. ☠️🤣🫣🤷🏿♂️🤡🌈👏🏿👏🏿👏🏿💪🏿🇬🇭🥇🇺🇸🇬🇧😂⚽🐐🤡
Thank you Elon for saving my $AAL calls, but I still can't forgive you for $PL. Please stop calling me.
Write the ducking post, put the pictures, put your ducking positions and explain the ducking ticket with your positions. Wtf is AAL? American Airlines? Is that? You didnt explain shit. I should guess what other people told you 2 months ago in this sub? FFS
lol, never expected $AAL to carry my account, today is wak.
AAL just wont go down buy 16.5c
the only stock i want to go down AAL has retard strength
that dip on AAL got bought so fast i didnt have time to move my bear spreads
im down 3x what i was up earlier this morning even with a bunch of winners like KEEL AAL purely due to the theta crush that happened after the first hour on my july 17 options
look at AAL chart for the past couple hours literally pinned between 15.85 and 15.95 to destroy all options
look at AAL just perfectly consolidating at 15.5 for 4 straight hours now look at AAL premarket where it was exactly at 15.5 stocks never move when the market is open just never ending theta decay
We're more than 100 days into the worst energy crisis in history and somehow AAL has *far* better returns than XOM since the war began. Amazing stuff really, 10/10 no notes
I'm still shorting AAL cause they stole my tennis racquets and think I don't care. They should all Ed Bastian and DAL. UAL all the way to EWR. I no longer give any fucks. Ported them all.
I'm running on AAL and TSLL. Both seems to trade in a channel
Strike. Hedge. !banbot strike sandisk on AMZN 1 TB USD 2 day delivery due 06/21/2026. Strike hedge 55 USD. Strike hehe 57. Strike hedge 570 ghc. Temu. She in. +6. Strike hehe 52 strike Wilson. Short long limit low strike AAL. Strike block DAL. Strike Skyteam. Strike United Airlines. strike Chiraq. September 2026. Hedge 10/31/2026-12/31/2026. Strike +5.
I'm team ONEWORLD. AAL STOLE MY RACQUETS ON A FLIGHT FROM CLT TO JAX AND DIDN'T TURN THEM IN. JUNIOR. BABA IS TALKING TO YOU. I WILL CALL THE FEDS YOU IDIOTS. ASK DAL. I FLY UNITED FROM NEWARK NOW YOU IDIOTS. AND I HAVE A CREDIT CARD. SHEESH. READ THE CONSTITUTION ON THE SENATE'S WEBSITE. IT'S NOT THE HARD.
If the war starts up again, AAL is dropping below $12.50... again
Time for the news drop. Should I fly AAL, DAL, or UAL business class? I need a nap and a clean toilet. #UCBDTHWC
go read the reason for DELL and HP jumps over the past week. DELL also has taco "buy" signal. Airlines pumped so what? The only record high (of the big ones) is Delta, which is the one Berkshire bought last quarter. UAL and AAL are not even ATH, they simply recovered the dip caused by oil Iran situation. And a lot of people already questioned why Berkshire would buy Delta in such a bad period for the sector, there are people that think this is NOT a good move even tho it's printing. \--- Company are making money.. yeah I bet. For now. Market is forward looking. Are we pricing in the downside? No. We did that in March. The new story is "AI growth". But AI does not make money for now, or rather few companies make money from it. It's mostly just huge losses. AI is useful, will it be a successful money printer? Idk. There is also midterms later this year which is another potential issue for markets. \--- I can tell you this is the absolute worst job market for tech since covid, that oil shock will show itself in the next months and highly affect prices, leading to even higher inflation and rate hikes, which combined with AI massive layoffs that we're seeing now, will crash the economy. Private credit issue is still there, we just forgot about it for now. Companies keep making profits but valuations remain elevated, with certain companies trading on literally no fundamentals and in general high PE overall. \--- Will this bad scenario happen? Probably not. I am saying this is a possibility. But saying everything is fine is just not true imo.
I second AAL. I've been selling puts on them for a few months now. I do have enough to covered a call if needed. But I bought those 100 shares back when it was $10.40 a share.
Great question. I like cheap options like AAL or LCID. Currently got a put on HTZ because, well, I guess you don't need a reason when they're cheap 😏
Lol, my only green is Kraft & AAL. See y’all next year.
I had AAL puts because, you know, jet fuel would seemingly be fucked. But I guess that was a dumb move.
Can everyone short AAL? I need help cause they stole my tennis racquets.
Honestly the market is full of opportunities right now. Im super bullish on oil, BNO for easy exposure. AAL puts are super cheap if you want a proxy, bought 60DTE 15puts for 1.75, with the stock trading at 13.90ish. Lots of software is beaten down to the point of being excellent value picks. ADBE, WDAY are two of my favourites. Accenture is also beaten down, but I have not yet decided if its a good pick. Might be worth a look, though. Some safe things Im liking right now are: RSG, WM, VIE (french), EOAN (german). They are all providing services to municipalties, etc. RSG and WM and waste management, VIE is more water focused, EON is energy. Good dividends, solid growth. Boring but good value picks. I dont mid SGOV either, with rate hikes on the horizon and inflation rising steeply.
No matter what the news says, I'm pumping all but AAL. I'm still mad about my racquets.
Long put on AAL... They stole my racquets.
I bought 2 NVD calls. A SPY call a QQQ call. Some poet puts. CZR calls. TZA calls. SONY calls. AAL calls oh an one SPY put lotto for tommorow.
The US airlines in 2025 stopped hedging, EU still hedges. Asia is mixed, as far as I understand. I am aiming for AAL, JBLU, JETS Jan 2027. Biggest risk imo is Trump putting oil/fuel export restrictions.
The top tickers under $20 being traded by the user community on [OptionsWheelTrader.com](https://optionswheeltrader.com/) are: SOFI, BULL, F, AAL, SOUN, BBAI, GRAB Note: Not financial advice or a recommendation to buy/trade any of them. Some of these are stable with low volatility/premiums (e.g. F, AAL). Others are risky and very volatile, but offer higher premiums. My recommendation on this - don't just look at the premium. Research the company and only buy if you would be happy to hold it long term. If the market dips, you don't want to be left holding a bad stock. Also - if new to trading options, consider learning using a paper trading account before you commit real capital.
Thinking about buying 5DTE shorts on American Airlines $AAL what's yalls opinion?
All I have right now is AAL puts and Palantir calls 🥴
Yeah that’s true. I have about $10k left and want to put it in something good. Lost about $4k usd on NKE and need to recoup some of the losses. Currently im in AAL, MSFT, ORACLE, and ADBE
That missing fuel curve date is actually a pretty important detail. If DAL/UAL clearly disclosed their curve assumptions and AAL didn’t, then the thesis is less just “fuel estimate looks wrong” and more “AAL gave less transparent guidance around the most important variable.” I think sticking to peer guidance comparisons is reasonable if you don’t have access to the exact curve. The cleaner argument might be: AAL’s implied fuel assumption looks materially different from peers, they didn’t explain the curve as clearly, and the market may punish that if Q2 forces a reset. The one thing I’d be careful with is separating “shady” from “less transparent.” Shady may be true, but less transparent is easier to defend if someone pushes back.
To be clear I have no idea how they'd do that and I'd explicitly bet against it being possible in this environment but that would break the thesis. Also forgot to address question 1. I didn't dig all the way into the meat of AAL and their peers' guidance justifications except to confirm that AAL didn't say anything (or field any hard questions) about their fuel price estimates during the earnings call. I didn't mention this, but I also thought it was mighty shady for them to be the only ones not to put their fuel curve date in their guidance - it came up in the earnings transcript - while at least United and Delta were careful to fully explain their $4.30 curve and where they set their date. One thing I am curious about is what the curve looked like on the date AAL shared but since I don't know if they were using crude or some airline-specific curve I don't have access to I stuck with the guidance comparisons.
That’s a pretty clear risk framework tbh. August is basically the event-driven trade, January is more the “thesis has time to play out” version. Cutting if Q2 doesn’t trigger the reaction makes sense, especially because otherwise the trade can slowly turn from a defined thesis into just waiting and hoping. The fuel fix point is interesting too. That’s probably the cleanest invalidation outside of price action: if AAL can credibly reduce the fuel risk, the whole short setup gets weaker.
Yeah that makes sense. I’d probably separate it into two questions: 1. is AAL’s guidance actually unrealistic versus peers 2. will the market care enough, fast enough, before the options decay The first part seems easier to argue from the fuel assumptions. The second part is trickier because even if you’re right, the timing has to line up. I’d be curious what you’re using as the “I’m wrong” signal here. Is it mainly oil/fuel moving lower, AAL revising expectations, or price action not reacting before a certain date?
This is a good example of why thesis updates matter more than just the original trade idea. The core question seems to be whether AAL’s fuel assumptions are meaningfully too optimistic versus peers, and whether that shows up as a guidance reset in Q2. The part I’d pressure test is timing. Even if the fuel-cost thesis is right, airlines can move hard on headlines around oil, geopolitics, demand, or financing before the numbers actually confirm it. So for me the trade comes down to: is the Q2 guidance miss likely enough, and soon enough, to overcome the headline risk and option decay?
Mixed bag since it sounded like the feds really did try to bail them out and their (few remaining) passengers gotta go somewhere I guess...not that I know anything about their routes. And you may be right. I do think the whole sector is going to crater and AAL's going to fall the hardest because they bs'd their guidance. Doesn't mean this is the most efficient way to bet on elevated oil prices and inflation and I don't know statistically what AAL's bad numbers are worth in a vacuum.
I never understood naked puts unless they are for income - aka Tasty's ~50DTE entry/21DRTE exit - as a retail investor If I am outright negative on AAL (I don't have a view), I will 1) do pair trades. (AAL vs UAL or DAL as it is a zero sum game within the airline industry. The weak remains weak until there is a airline specific big event) or 2) sell call spreads Also, consider what Spirit news does for your thesis
Sorry for late response, got swamped and wanted to make sure I read your whole thing. I mean I totally see your logic. It makes so much sense, but I just see the options priced correctly for the risk. Options are definitely the way to go to leverage a position, but I think you really are trying to play an indirect play of oil. I just always say why not play the direct play instead of a derivative of a derivative? AAL is already a shitty company so maybe that will be your ace in the hole. Problem I always have with these plays is I’ll get “the move” as it trickles down some and my options will theta decay and the extrinsic value will just plummet more than expected. Then I’m looking at my PL and basically flat to a bit up. Then I’m stuck. Do I hold for duration? Then things calm down on the original narrative and a slight winner moved to a loser. Sometimes I’ll have enough to “make it free” but even then it defeats the original point of the trade and then my volume isn’t there. Good luck though. Think you are over thinking this one and it’s all priced to perfection. You are essentially betting on the Iran conflict continuing for a long time. Just go to kashi and place a bet there then would be my direct play.
Love how AAL is the only one pretending they can see fuel prices out to 2026 while everyone else is basically saying "yeah no idea." That combo of rosy guidance + fresh debt raise the next day is sketchy as hell. Your put ladder actually looks pretty sensible here.
Neither does AAL. But cruiselines are an angle I haven't looked into yet - good idea
Anyone knows why AAL is mooning other than because fuck my puts?
Hooray! A helpful and challenging comment! Since I posted this I bought some $8s that didn't have any OI on Monday (I can't prove that - but if $8 had been an option then I know I would have jumped on it) I see myself selling or rolling way before expiry unless things are truly dire this summer and I get greedy. I'm very much an amateur here and this is really an attempt to play on my question of where the disconnect between futures and physical oil prices hits equities the hardest. Since this appears to be uncharted territory I'm not risking a lot - the answer might simply be that it never hits at all and eventually normalizes. But on paper, the oil futures/physical disconnect was historically wide a few weeks ago. They're converging more recently...but paper is moving up to meet physical which is what I expected. And the airlines set guidance using figures disconnected from reality. Sounds bad to me. I did my best to lay out my thought process but I can't pretend I have firm, technically-defined plans - and I'm not betting enough of my own money to hurt if I get it wrong. If oil goes where I think it's going and stays there for any length of time AAL is in big trouble, and they set their guidance in a way that makes everything worse. That's about as far as my thought process goes, and I've only got maybe 2 percent of my roll in this. I don't think bankruptcy conversations push the price below 5 right away but I also don't know how bad guidance is going to have to be if they end up paying 4.40/gallon through this quarter and canceling flights in June then start chewing through cash to service their debt.
Stock goes to zero. Puts are worth their maximum value. Napkin math they probably have enough liquidity to survive a few bad - even catastrophic - years but at their debt levels I think people would start talking about bankruptcy much sooner and the share price would respond accordingly. The crazy thing to me was AAL shutting down the merger talk publicly enough for United's CEO to respond.
What happens to stock price if AAL declares bankruptcy? Even a discussion of merger with UAL was crazy to me - I think they are in a terrible financial position and all your points are valid.
AAL, EPM, LASE, do something pls :(
Nah, Q1 dropped 4/23. Q2 earnings estimated for 7/23/26. My targets depend on what happens with the energy crisis. I bought $10s for January because I expect AAL to drop 20-30 percent by end of year based on fuel costs and big earnings/guidance misses. They set records for revenue last quarter and still bled money. I bought $5s because if energy prices stay extremely elevated and demand drops (2008) I think their survival comes into play. They had $34.7 billion in debt and just issued another $1.14 billion in bonds yesterday 4/27. I'm certainly not accusing anyone of anything but it is interesting that the day after they released guidance with some questionable-but-legal fuel estimates they closed on a round of funding for new fuel-efficient aircrafts...
I bought January puts at $5 and $10. I thought about buying to time a drop on Q2 earnings but the price difference when last checked the chain pushed me to longer-term. There's still a chance that even with a bad Q2 miss AAL chooses to avoid changing guidance meaningfully and that may delay the market's reaction. I cannot stress enough how insane I think it was to guide $4 for fuel a few days after United guided at $4.30. It's either bad luck because of how erratic the oil futures curve has been or "bad luck" because they wanted guidance to look stronger.
What’s your AAL price target and time frame? Q2 earnings already came out no?
Care to share? You beat me by a few weeks. AAL picked an interesting time to take on more debt today, too.
It will have small HTB fee and Divs. vs AAL hasn't paid Divs in long time
Holy shit I just looked at AAL and what an absolute garbage of a stock. Why would anyone in their right mind ever invest in that
No, they don't. I linked to an article about it. And AAL's 10k explicitly says they have no financial hedges, and that every 1 cent of fuel cost increase represents $50m per year in increased costs.
Good write up. I started buying AAL puts on 4/9 There’s a lot more to the equation here. We’ll see how it all plays out.
Please reread the post. They averaged $2.39/gallon over 2025 according to their own 10-k and that number is at (or a hair above) the jet fuel spot price resource I linked to. If I were going to pick another short I'd pick UAL (and may still). But they guided at $4.30 and that is in the realm of possibility; AAL chose to pick a more favorable spread in their guidance for whatever reason and prices are already 20+ cents beyond their figure.
They all buy options to protect against fuel price hikes. Read that a while ago on an AAL press release.
Airlines buy fuel in huge bulk and get large discounts. I believe last year they paid something like $2.00/gallon. You’re that confident the price of fuel more than doubles AND they can’t make it up with increasing ticket prices while all airlines are reporting demand is STRONG? If anything I think their fuel costs are wildly pessimistic. Another difference between AAL/UAL/DAL is that UAL and DAL travel more overseas where these shortages hit hardest. AAL is less exposed to fuel shortages than UAL and DAL. DAL has a refinery to mitigate some of the crack spreads and UAL does not. UAL with their heavy TPAC flying is probably most exposed and actually has room to fall rather than AAL which is already priced in the dumps.
Man, this is some seriously deep research you've put in. I remember those unhedged airline plays burning folks in the past, and your read on AAL's guidance against the spot prices is really sharp. The Iran situation and jet fuel ripple effects are definitely something to watch. Appreciate you sharing such a detailed thesis and positions. Good luck with the trade, hope it plays out for you.
AAL doesn't price their stock, investors do, and they already know. That's why it's already down -30%.
Nice write up, however I think this (and a lot of other prognosticating posts) miss a big factor, namely, the market is irrational and will look out as far as it needs to to avoid bad news. The thought right now is “this conflict will end, eventually”. It doesn’t matter if AAL has a few rough quarters due to fuel prices, people will buy the dips because they hang on to the word “eventually”. Most people don’t even look at discrepancies between forward estimates and economic facts that run counter, they just tune in briefly around earnings season, and then tune back out. Unless AAL starts grounding flights and using words like “indeterminate”, people just don’t care.