AMZN

TonyMontanaIsNice

Part 2- Stay with me please..... 1️⃣"The large institutional call spread trades that have been discussed with such excitement the last few days. 📝These total a few billion dollars of premium spend, in 3-6 month maturities, in mega-cap tech names (MSFT, AMZN, NFLX, etc). 📝Based on color from flow desks, these trades were mostly executed versus stock: which means that the client bought the call spreads and sold stock, executing a delta neutral trade. 📝So these transactions themselves did not represent meaningful buying pressure on the stocks."

TonyMontanaIsNice

3️⃣"The next day AMZN moved up 4.1% to 3312. 📝The call price exploded to $81 and delta to 73%. 📝The market maker would have been forced to buy another 47 shares of stock, moving the total value of shares bought to $230,000. 🗣Remember, the day trader's total premium outlay was $1,500!"

TonyMontanaIsNice

2️⃣"The next day AMZN moved ⬆️ 1.1% to 3182. 📝As the stock moved closer to the option strike, the call price increased to $15.50 and its delta moved up to 26%. 📝The market maker would have increased their hedge by buying another 5 shares, bringing it to 26 shares or $82,000 of stock."

TonyMontanaIsNice

1️⃣"A trader bought a 1week 3250 call with AMZN at $3148 on 8/14. They paid about $15 per share or $1500 for the contract since each option=100 shares 📝The delta was 21% so it has the equivalence of 21 shares or $66,100 worth of AMZN exposure, for only $1500 of premium 📝The MM who they buy the call from is going to hedge that exposure immediately and according to the 21% delta, the mm will buy 21 shares

kriptonicx

P/Es obviously matter, but what a good P/E is depends massively on interest rates and a company's growth rate. If a company has just become profit P/E is also a bad metric. 99% of the time when I see a company trading at 100 P/E or something stupid there is a good reason. For example, AMZN used to trade at a P/E > 100 for years, but looking back it was probably warranted given it's growth and the launch of high margin businesses like AWS. Also the interesting thing about the time period you highlighted (1900-2005) is that interest rates were much higher then. P/Es have gradually increased over the last couple of decades as markets have priced in persistently lower P/Es. I still think P/Es are a bit too high at the moment, but if the historic average is ~16, then given current interest rates I think you can argue P/Es in the low 20s are probably fine. The PE of the S&P500 is currently 26.5 which is a bit high, but only maybe 10-20% too high and we have earnings coming up which will push it a bit lower. A 10-20% pullback in the long-term is almost completely irrelevant. I'd argue you're focusing on P/E too much and not applying the required context, this is probably as much of a mistake as ignoring P/Es entirely. Many people have stayed out of markets over the last decade arguing P/Es are "too high".

Redditbannedme14x

What tech bubble? What tech stocks are trading at abnormal PE levels or crazy valuations other than TSLA? All the ARKK/Zoom/Zillow stocks have popped and are down 60-80%. Do you think you'll get AMZN at 800 billion again?

redjimmyv

Can't believe no one here has said Jeff Green of The Trade Desk (TTD) yet. Guy is an absolute baller. Originally worked for a different silicon valley company and left to start The Trade Desk. He's said things in earnings calls like "We're having our iPhone moment." But the thing is... his words aren't as much hyperbole as they seem. The guy delivers. Time and again. I've been saying for a while that I think TTD will be up in the ranks of AAPL, GOOGL, FB & AMZN one day. I still stand by that statement. Solid ROE. Solid Growth. Solid up-side. Almost zero LT debt (can use this later to lever/multiple returns). What's not to love? The reason: the AI they are building for programmatic buy-side advertising is only getting stronger each day. Because they started so early, their AI continues to learn and get stronger, leaving competitors in the dust. When Google and others started talking about doing away with third-party cookies, Jeff Green said "EFF it, we'll create our own tracking technology." And so Unified ID 2.0 was born. The real kicker... China hasn't even been tapped yet. Can you imagine what Jeff Green is going to do with a $150 billion programmatic advertising market?

B1gChuckDaddySr

My boss never served in the Military but always viewed himself as a Navy Seal Commander due to his leadership skills....He sent an email that all the Top Wholesalers will be called Wholesale Team 6 and will get Navy Seal shirts ordered on AMZN.... Rest of the Wholesalers will have to prove themselves.... I NEED TO LOOK FOR A NEW JOB

yolo_hamster

Clearly history has shown that he is definitely missing something from his valuation model since he has been so grossly off the mark on the stock. It’s the same case study as AAPL, AMZN, and many other disruptive megacaps. How else would you explain why he was so off the mark all of these years?

Radiologer

AMZN is the flattest shit ever

MattieShoes

I sold AAPL and AMZN in 2007 to buy a house. :-D

GustavGuiermo

AMZN since 2008... AMZN to $4200 by 2023 https://imgur.com/2BP32VY.jpg

UpTheIrons_Forever

AMZN is pretty much flat since 1.5 years.

ekaqu1028

The big question for individual stocks is will you be able to exit if they no longer match your investing goals (aka will you know they stop being safe?), if not might be good to stay with index funds and forget it. I invest in AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, and AMZN. I am in tech so my job forces me to pay attention to what everyone is doing, if you can’t monitor there is a risk something happens…. They are old enough and have been stable for a long time, so risk is low… but you never know. There is an old advice on investing where you know the sector or business

Lost100KOnPTon

JFC. Even by wsb standards, this is garbage. From example 1, it took 10 years for AMZN to break even from its 1999 high. Pets.com, vanbus, etc bankrupted. From example 2, countrywide bankrupt and got delisted. From example 3, abnormal event. Noting to do with the market, feds, economy. A twelve year old would have better research than this fucking joker.

Parlayz4Dayz

Oh wow, thanks for this head up info. Basically if my beloved GameStop goes bankrupt just like that my lifesaving can go poof. This is some top tier dd that’ll get me to sell. You say buy AMZN or GOOG?

gqreader

Yea fuck it, hedge it all with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN. I already hold AAPL via $VTI, so not looking to get into more concentrated position. Undecided with NFLX, maybe I can get them for $450 or less in the future, who knows.

OtherwiseAd2733

Power Hour. Last hour before the bell (not including after hours). Fridays are my favorite days for lottos on AMZN, SHOP, and TSLA. R/R is incredible.

Admirable_Nothing

Your numbers are way off. AMZN peaked around $100 in 99 and is at $3240 now. That is quite a bit over break even. There is an honest Q however? Would you have held it during its drop to $7? Most did not. So you need to have an honest Q with yourself if you are going to hold today's high flyers through the next down turn.

DoubleTFan

Uh, yes. Better go buy some AAPL and AMZN before you miss your chance!

HaMEZSmiff

PYPL and AMZN and META PayPal has come down a lot recently and based on growth at a 20%+ clip for the next five years it’s selling at an attractive price. And fortunately for PayPal as it gets larger and larger the moat does too, if PayPal is offered as part of checkout the likelihood of checkout occurring is 80-85%, if only credit card is offered it drops to 50-55%. Describing the main moat. Amazon, I mean it’s cloud business is going to continue to grow in double digits and likely 20%+ for another decade based on current cloud space projections. They are also best in breed. FB or META - Business speaks for itself, no oculus growth priced in or future projects that involve the meta

szaero

Not going to identify what company I am with but I can tell you with 100% confidence that AAPL AMD AMZN INTC MSFT NVDA do not operate this way across the majority of each company. I have a deep network of college friends that span these companies. Sure there's woke bullshit subcultures in some parts but it is not normal. WFH burnout among single people is real though. Many of us want to get back in there because it is a large part of our social lives. New people in my part of the tech stack are mostly doing fine work, even college grads that need mentorship. I do feel that the hardware side validation is slipping and there might be a major GUH ship to the public in the next few years. Hardware products designed entirely post-Covid will begin shipping this year. But also, I could be as full of shit as the twitter person. Don't trust anything you read on the internet.

gqreader

Are you fucken kidding? GOOG grew as revenue by like 40% yoy. Expected to comp those numbers this year too. YouTube and Waymo is the future. deepmind alpha AI is their dark horse… watch that space. Watch it come out of nowhere and be applied into the commercial space. MSFT is in the 2nd inning of 9 with its cloud business. Like it’s huge runway for a company so entrenched in corporate America. 20%+ yoy growth for the next 5 is easily possible. what AMZN loses will go to MSFT/GOOG cloud. I’m more nervous on AMZN’s growth and the subsequent multiple the market gives it’s 3P sales and the gains in its logistics business. That part of the business isn’t going to get as high of a multiple. But FCF is going to grow, they’ve been capitalizing much to expand capacity the past 2 years. I think it’ll pay off in the long run

Sir_Bryan

Not really, a lot of growth tech has taken a 60% hit over the last year already. Im not one add to positions that are well above historical highs, but I’m getting a 25% discount on companies like NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, PYPL, BABA, that I am extremely confident will outperform over a long time period and are cash flow kings (outside PYPL), I’m not going to hesitate because of interest rate fears. I’m also comfortable entering high growth tech stocks that I like that are 60% off highs yeah. You are acting like growth tech is sitting at ATHs when that’s far from the case for most.

suboxhelp1

That was 20 years ago. If you bought AMZN at peak, you’d only have broken even rather recently. And that’s assuming all of his stocks are the next AMZN. They can’t all be.

Admirable_Nothing

There you have your answer. Remember AMZN doubled their revenue between late 99 and early 2002 and the stock went down 90%, but look at it today. You only have a loss if you sell. Assuming you still think all are strong companies in their space and will do well over the next few decades (if that is your holding period) than keep them.

Stinky_Macaroni

Why save when the casino gives you the chance to turn 150k into 1.5m? If I bought the AMZN put at the same strike as I had the call…that’s what woulda happened. Nothing lost nothing gained…aside from experience.

MakeOSUGreatAgain63

AMZN Prime, AFTER TAXES,… comes out to $6.93 per month (I just got charged). Absolutely incredible what that gets you for that price

Stinky_Macaroni

SPY puts on Fed minutes got me there. Plus a couple of SPY calls on Monday and Tuesday. AMZN calls took it all away after Wednesday morning.

chedrich446

Owning ark stocks right now is more like owning a bunch of dotcoms in 2000. Sure there were some MSFT and AMZN that survived and exploded later on but it took 15 years just to get back to the 2000 prices.

crobichon

I never understood the classifications between Value and Growth. Everyone should be a “value” investor (why buy overvalued stocks?). I am a value investor, but my two largest holdings are AMZN and GOOGL. I considered them significantly undervalued at the time of purchase yet some people put them down as “growth”. I also wouldn’t invest in a coal business even if it is trading at 4x earnings, but it is considered “value”.

v3rral

Dude, that’s not how successful trading works. You don’t buy AMZN in 98’ with a hope that after 20 years it will be 100x. You buy stock at the right moment, when cash are flowing in that asset. When it don’t, you dismiss.

Seatown1983

Yeah, I really don’t get this sentiment. Would you rather own MSFT or GE in 90, people would call you an idiot for saying MSFT. Would you rather own F or AMZN in 98, people would call you an idiot for saying AMZN. This temporary rotation of Tech is that, temporary. I’d rather take a hit and be invested in the electrification of the grid, have exposure to crypto, cyber security and the so called meta verse. Everyone excoriating Cathie and “stocks that don’t make money”, let’s see where you are in 5-10 years

Dmoan

What would make someone buy that much share of WISH? it’s not they have much room to go up as how competitive the e commerce space is and we got AMZN the monopoly crushing everyone.

gripshoes

AMZN as of last week. Still see AAPL as my #1 because I've had it since I started investing. AMZN only creeped into first because of the price per share lol

recoveringsellsider

Never short market on technicals. You short when MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, (aka MAGA) miss. Dead ass simple.

_hiddenscout

Same. Over a five year period, SPYV has done about 3x of SPYG. It’s funny because growth is used too much of a blanketed term. It’s not really growth being crushed as companies with crazy evaluations. SPYV main holdings are like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, HD, META and ADBE. I’m never not buying some SPYG

ralphy112

QQQ is still highest, I’m a an old school index fund guy and this is my conservative portfolio anchor. About 35-40%. I chose this over SPY about 10 yrs ago. AAPL and AMZN big holders on individual. They’ve done well and I still believe they are solid companies overall. FB/GOOG/NFLX: small holdings that I’ve trimmed back over the last 2-3 yrs. GOOG has surprised me recently but was traditionally a lagger to other fangs in my view MSFT: I always disliked them as a company and left this alone. But my investing side knows they are entrenched in business and making good money. About 10 other small holdings in a variety of other companies. Some to “test the water” as future larger holdings and some I thought I’d take a chance in. These have been hit or miss overall. I know I’m tech heavy but I work in the field and have always followed I should invest in what I know best. I used to dabble in odd stuff like consumer staples and pharma, but couldn’t tell you the difference about the companies and left.

Dhaimoran

**AMZN** by far, diversified mega cap in growing sectors that is still investing like a startup.

Expensive-Way-748

$AMZN. Low six figures in raw stock and around ten grand as a part of ETFs.

Zebranazgul

How much did you gain/loose on your TSLA, NVDA and AMZN?

starcraft-de

BRK.B, followed by AMZN and AAPL. The latter two rather by appreciation, the first by choice (although also up 100%). Generally, am more an ETF type of guy. But these three are OK for me psychologically.

Plague_of_Grackle

What is this, ya think? Are we seeing like a 'Dotcom Bubble' play out right now? If that's the case: most of these startupy, SPACcy, growthy companies will go under in the next year or two. But there will be some monsters that survive the gauntlet. I mean I guess Yahoo and AOL technically made it out of that meat grinder, but the ones that people take for granted are GOOG and AMZN etc. Who's that gonna be this time? TSLA's already a beast, so they don't count...

guachi01

The major problem with overlap is that if a company shows up in 4 of 7 ETFs (for example) you now own way more of it that you initially thought. It might be something like an IT ETF and a NSADAQ ETF that's a LOT of tech you own. On top of that someone will own a few individual stocks in big name companies like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA and all of those companies will be huge portions of the IT and NASDAQ ETF. It's just the illusion of diversity.

thats0K

right on, I feel ya. yeah crypto is new, volatile, but crypto is the future. once AAPP, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG add BTC to it's balance sheet, once banks make ETFs for it (likely this year), and once more nations adopt it as a currency like El Salvador, along with the supply shock it's going to skyrocket over the next decade.

Rico_Stonks

Depends on if you want to overweight towards the biggest companies. Spy has everything everything that’s in QQQ, so a combination is equivalent to SPY with more emphasis on MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, FB, TSLA, and a few others. I do this.

lacrimosaofdana

TIL also that AMZN, GOOG, and TSLA are also overpriced growth since they don't offer any dividends either.

lacrimosaofdana

TIL also that AMZN, GOOG, and TSLA are not growth stocks either despite being massively profitable AND not offering any dividends.

GustavGuiermo

AMZN is a super tasty buy at this price. Gotta buy after long consolidation, not after it pops. I mean look at where it is compared to historical performance since 2008 https://imgur.com/FZ1OtTc.jpg

GustavGuiermo

AMZN about to bounce hard off the bottom of a channel it's been in since 2008. Even if it just rides the bottom trend line, we'll see big growth soon https://imgur.com/6hv2t3M.jpg

xXSmartBuyerXx

MSFT, APPL, AMZN take your pick or buy all 3

The_Weekend_DOW

AMZN has shit the bed the last few earnings. I’m sure they did well over the holidays, but it’s hard to believe that their guidance will be good given decreased customer demand, rising fuel costs and increases in employee wages. That being said, if funds want it to go up, I’m sure they will pick out some other metric that did well.

mulemoment

If you picked the right ones maybe. From just eyeballing it, MSFT, you'd be flat or negative. JPM you were negative, maybe flat if you DCA-ed the whole time AAPL you were positive on AMZN you were positive on, but you were flat to negative for 7 years first

Embarrassed_Fennel_1

I’d agree on GOOG, AMZN, and AAPL. With FB it seems a little more cut and paste considering these apps are already separate products with more or less separate teams working on them

BoastfulPrudence

Hey I read the question wrong. FOr investors. Like equity investors? Not capital investors. Obviusly depends on who's investing. People who will need that cash sometime inthe next 5 years, or need dividend income? They should be happy with 3-4%. But the market as a whole with ETFs returns 5%+ on avaerage, what's not to like about a broad-based ETF? When there are companies like MSFT, AMZN, TSMC, XOM out there, 5% should be easily achievable. Why would anyone accept less?

LockStockandTendies

Well that's why I have a portfolio and not 1 stock... I have AMZN, I have MSFT, I have GOOG, I have AMD, I have index funds as well, I have banks, utilities, insurance companies, emerging markets, for better or for worse, I have 104 total holdings. Some holdings are very small. Shift is 11.5%. but still at the end of the day it's a portfolio where I have my blue chips, some indexes, some dividend payers, and my growth positions. This is a growth position. I'm just so bullish on it that I have a large position. I can be wrong and that's OK. That's why it's not a YOLO. I can lose it all and my portfolio takes a year set back, worst case.

fufm

AMZN at 3200 gonna look like such a bargain in a couple months

mediumrarestonks

You're talking about current valuation which is much more speculative especially since we have no idea what RC is up to. The WMT / AMZN argument has some merit but it has limits. They don't compete directly, GME is a merch / destination store. A "hangout" if you will and for promoting events, releases, etc. In general though I'm just talking about the all dumbasses on here saying it's worth $0 or $5. Like I said they have 3 copies of chromosome 21.

Margin_call_matthew

You mean your AMZN leaps or short calls?

Delicioustreat77

I WISH, AMZN was not going in WISH direction. How can they be negative in Q1 year performance? 😱

VisualMod

#Ban Bet Lost /u/foshizzlemyjonas (0/1) made a bet that AMZN would go to 3500.0 when it was 3341.375 and it did not, so they were banned for a week.

BatOuttaHell1

170 to 70 in 2 months. After AMZN news out too. it's crazy

fufm

AMZN AAPL MSFT all green on the day now Time for the earnings ramp up rally to commence

raffaga777

AMZN down all market down wtf

BatOuttaHell1

Need AMZN at 3400 by Jan 31 earnings or I'm dead for the year

off_by_two

The premiums on AMZN leaps are just nuts. Anyone actually buying at these levels considering the ridiculous flat/consolidation period AMZN has been in for like 18 months?

GustavGuiermo

AMZN looks so juicy right here

GustavGuiermo

!banbet AMZN 4200 1y

East_Designer_1044

MSFT is more focused on software whereas AAPL is largely focused on selling new consumer products and AMZN is largely logistics focused so you really can’t compare AAPL with those two and in terms of growth, Apple will always be creating products that consumers are going to buy and so they’ll be able to grow because of that. Obviously not as fast of pace with rising interest rates, but it still has better growth potential than MSFT or AMZN

7loUge

The government anti-trust subcommittee wrote an interesting analysis of big tech, and the section on FB noted that they actively integrated their acquisitions so tightly into their code base that it's questionable if the company could be broken up on a technical level. Regardless, it's a very good detailed read of FB, GOOG, AMZN on AAPL. https://judiciary.house.gov/uploadedfiles/competition\_in\_digital\_markets.pdf

Coffeepillow

I need next week to be the biggest bull week for AMZN or I’m going to be colossally fucked

simplenicc

I really spent $3k on (8) 1/14 AMZN 3250p and they're now worth 35k God is good

Eddydarkness19

$TSLA back to $1250 before earnings $AMZN back to $3,600 before earnings Come on guys let’s push it

TheFreshOne

AMZN the literal embodiment of "fuk u, im out".

lacrimosaofdana

Early in the sense that AMZN at the time was trading for under $500. Obviously it has almost 10x since that time b

mcttwist

Ark an early investor in AMZN? Ark launched their funds in 2014 when Amazon was already a giant. Yeah they’ve still reaped the rewards of amazons monopolistic growth but they weren’t an early investor since amzn when public in 1997!

__Captain_Yolo

Market still overvalued as shit. Who actually wants to be buying AMZN at $3200 a share? Shit is worth maybe $2k tops

B1gChuckDaddySr

I'm going to stop paying for Kyler Quinn, Cameron Canela, Joey Lee, and Jill Kassidy's OnlyFans and stop buying them shit on their AMZN wishlist so I have more cash to buy more Options....

lordbell21

TSLA locked at 1040 and AMZN locked at 3220, most likely

freehouse_throwaway

was QQQ candle but yeah AMZN too theta day it seems. (if u ignore boomer DOW)

Horror-Base6942

Funny to see which of my commonly traded stocks are resisting the drop and what's tanking. SPY, AMZN, GOOG dropping, SHOP, TSLA, UPST, NVDA resisting. Really surprised SHOP isn't tanking, it loves to drop big.

fuck_trump_and_biden

AMZN sucks so bad

Phant0mahawk

Made an easy rack on puts for SPCE, SE, SNAP, AMZN, and RIVN, just got some fresh ones for the pile of shit that is NIO. Would love to daytrade these later for max profit.

Doozlle

AMZN lagging tech trend

Ok_Capital2097

I hope WMT, TGT, or AMZN buy out SDC and take away my bag.