ASTS

staples15243

That was Blue Origin, not ASTS. Blue Origin was only 1 of the launch providers ASTS uses

Beastman5000

ASTS is less risky than a lot of people think. They already have the proven technology, locked in contracts and plenty of funding runway. They just need time to execute. Not saying it’s a lock, but it’s no longer a moonshot

JimiForPresident

You mean $1T for ASTS? Currently sitting at $27B.

atape_1

RKLB now owns Iridium with 900M revenue, so i guess that needs to be added to the table. I personally think RKLB and PL have a solid future. RKLB is a great launch provider, builds and launches satellites and now owns Iridium, which they plan to expand. PL are the biggest player in earth observation. ASTS is the risky play, but if they pull it off, it is easily a 1 Bil + company. The others like RDW, FLY etc. I think they are popular because people that have missed the initial large moves by the lights of RKLB, ASTS and LUNR are buying those now in the hopes they will do the same. Oh yeah, speaking of LUNR, they really need to stop tipping over their lunar landers.

DryJackko2228

RDW. FLY. ASTS. PL. &. LUNR Strong mis term and long term buys

BaxBaxPop

The entire space industry will change of Starship is successful. Launch costs will be reduced by upwards of 90%. The ease of getting materials to orbit and beyond will be drastically increased. Yes, these companies aren't currently profitable. But if Starship is successful and launch costs plummet, suddenly profits skyrocket. We're on the verge of a space age. It's very exciting and this will be a high growth sector. The only question is when. With all of that said, I think this was a case of institutions and smart money taking advantage of retail hopium. You can't buy SpaceX yet, but you can buy RKLB. You can't buy Starlink but you can buy ASTS. You can't buy NASA moon colony, but you can buy RDW, LUNR and others. Remember, the SpaceX IPO started making headlines in December 2025. Look at the unnatural movement in the entire space sector since that time. This was all one buy buy the rumor pump-and-dump. Now things are settling back to where they were before December. With all of that said, Starship launches on Thursday. If it's successful, we're getting very, very close to the point that these space companies will be generating serious profits. If Starship can be as successful as the Falcon 9, watch out.

ArniePie

I've only really dug in depth into ASTS and it's my biggest single position in my portfolio. I'm confident their technology and approach is superior to Starlink, and they've proven it with the satellites in orbit already. The biggest question is what will their ARPU be with consumers and the adoption rate of their service. I think it will be an add-on service for most people but rural customers will pay a premium to cover their deadzones with unlimited data. Slight adjustments to the adoption rate and ARPU can widely swing the valuation of ASTS. The other major unknown is defense contract revenues. I think SpaceX will make a valiant attempt at launching a competitive service, but the physics and ongoing capex to maintain thousands of satellites in very low earth orbit will make the business uneconomic IMO.

Pat23ftp

Wasn't ASTS screwed because the platform for the rockets got heavily damaged 1-2 months ago? So maybe ASTS is not the right time if you want gains. Could be sitting around for a while

verified-trader

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Iunatic (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **ASTS** ▲ | $85.08 → $127.63 | +50.0% | 2w | Lost |

Ok-Flatworm-3397

Porque no los dos? But my answer, RKLB. ASTS just seems like it’s going to have lots of competition and not a great moat imo. But RKLB seems to just keep growing its moat and vertical integration

night_shredder

RKLB and ASTS are spent, back to the scheduled color (red) by EOD

The1Insider

The play is so easy, ASTS and RKLB bounce

PaxDev

RKLB and ASTS CSPs printed lol

KittyLover-7

Not good enough ASTS and rklb, I need more

HoldUpWoahThere

ASTS/RKLB gang showing some signs of life 🫶🏼

Paul_Robert_

Praise be to ASTS, inshASTS 🙌

Miserable_Target9792

I own both... RKLB will vastly underperform ASTS once that constellation hits 45-60 sats and bring in revenue from telecoms worldwide. Wide margin difference. Iridium... they overpaid in the short run and in the longrun maybe the satellite building infrastructure will be worth it. That being said, both cool companies. At this price ASTS is a mammoth in the making at a cheap price.

Money_Highlight3273

!banbet ASTS 88 7d

Distinct_Lack306

ASTS

Money_Highlight3273

!banbet ASTS $88 7D

Ok_Employment_192

I would just buy UFO etf (if you're ameritard) or JEDI etf (if you're europoor) and set it and forget it for 5-10 years. Similar returns and volatility as RKLB and ASTS but you're more diversified and a bit safer

mukavastinumb

ASTS’s satellite has about 100x Starlink’s satellite bandwidth. If you are familiar with Command and Conquer -games this is like USA vs USSR: better tech vs sheer number of satellites.

SalemKinkTrials

Space is gonna have a hell of a day. ASTS & RKLB will end +15%

CorvetteCole

so how many ASTS satellites are planning to be launched this year? it's a pretty small number. will they even manage continuous coverage by the end of next year? I am skeptical, and I think they will get their lunch eaten because they are going too slow

Organic_Garden_7076

I like both, but for different reasons. RKLB feels like I'm investing in a business that's already proving itself. ASTS feels like I'm investing in a thesis. Nothing wrong with either, but I sleep better owning the first one.

Big_Refrigerator4587

RKLB if you can't buy both. I bought both yesterday, but picked up a couple hundred more shares of RKLB than ASTS. Due to fill

DesignerSea494

ASTS. Bought around $2, held for months, then sold for a slight profit. Those shares I had are worth millions now.

Odd_Perspective3019

Idk about ASTS anymore I think it can get eaten up by the big leagues by the time it gets any traction, i recommend RKLB for high upside

Maleficent-Letter356

RKLB has actual revenue and a clear path to profitability while ASTS is still a bet on whether the technology scales. Safer hands for a long term hold in my book

scsyndrome

ASTS. Half the market cap. More upside I believe.

GainDelicious1894

Not true. ASTS was most prosperous in 2026.

Katniss_Zhou

The fact that you're comparing two unrelated companies purely because they're both 'down 40%' tells you something important: you're anchoring to price, not thesis. RKLB's thesis (vertical integration in launch + space systems) and ASTS's thesis (satellite-to-phone connectivity) have completely different risk profiles. If you wrote separate thesis entries for each, the 'which one to buy' question would answer itself.

TeamFoulmouth

NFLX @7ish....sold in the teens cuz Kramer said to! ASTS averaged in at $3.17/5K shares because a guy i hate said "never bet against Elon"

chimp-to-the-moon

RKLB and ASTS hitting 60s soon?

LeadingAd1593

I bought 800 shares of ASTS in August of 2023 for 3.xx a share. I sold in April the following year for 2.40 something. That one still stings.

granoladeer

ASTS is a joke at the current valuation. 

cbusoh66

Wait until you find out ASTS in 2027 😎

mtownhustler043

I'm glad ASTS is this low, gives me time to stock up

DeliciousAges

Good idea. When I started investing in both RKLB and ASTS (both were trading in the single digits at the time…), I always told people asking for me for stock tips in the space sector: Put 70-80% of your space allocation in RKLB and the remainder in ASTS, because RKLB was (and still is) a more mature company with revenue - even more so once the Iridium IRDM merger passes. (I still own both RKLB and ASTS, but sold some off when both were trading well above $100).

iCaps_

He missed the entire space sector like ASTS.

KeythKatz

Different markets. ASTS is the only one truly capable of worldwide D2C with unmodified hardware. Amazon competes with existing Starlink. Starlink thinks it can compete with ASTS but it doesn't have any way to compete outside of the US because telcos prefer to work with ASTS and you **need** telcos' sovereign spectrum to even enter the market, while the access they do have in the USA is poltics-based and fragile, so they're literally not even a factor no matter how many satellites they launch.

KeythKatz

> small and crowded corner A market they invented, lead, and are still the only company to have the appropriate technology and spectrum to take advantage of. They'll be the only player when the constellation builds out sufficiently for public service next year, and for a long time to come. RKLB's non-launch acquisitions are meaningless unless they can get Neutron to stop following the footsteps of BO NG (unlikely given the glacial pace of development), and also get customer orders for constellations after that. Likely at least 3 years out before we see investments start to pay off. I subscribe to the subreddits of both subs. RKLB runs on sentiment, hopium, groupthink, and unrealistic timelines. Half of them don't know anything besides "stock price go up". ASTS discussions are factual, fundamental, and users are more pessimistic on timelines. There isn't the same meme stock vibe. That said, I bought both during the dip, but I'd be much happier with RKLB under $50 while ASTS is a steal anywhere below $100.

tomgreen99200

ASTS

Goddamn7788

ASTS.

AllTimeTy

ASTS was the last DD I read on a no name stock that actually made great sense. So no. I typically exit stocks if their ticker keeps being brought up a lot on here

AllTimeTy

I got in at ASTS at like $4 from this sub lmao

swizzle213

The timed the last funding at the very top back in Jan. I believe it increased float by maybe 2%. Not sure where you’re getting the 88+% because that definitely is not true They also have a few billion dollars in the bank to fund launches and Sat development. They are working on BB14-38 right now. The biggest risk of ASTS right now is execution and launch cadence. If the dilute the stock a small portion to accelerate that timeline, I view that as a good business move to get to revenue sooner

Nashi0008

True story guys I was was a member of Spacemob on Twitter with \~2-3k shares of ASTS bought at around $4/5. After it dropped sub $3, I denounced all Spacemob members as optimistic fools and frauds and sold. Just funny to look back now. I even chanced my Twitter handle I was so embarrassed 😂

SpartanDad01

Yeah forreal.. how low you think these get?? ASTS gonna hit 60 tomorrow

steady_compounder

If I had to choose one, I would treat RKLB as the cleaner business and ASTS as the cleaner moonshot. RKLB has more operating proof and more ways to be right, while ASTS probably has the bigger upside if the whole thesis works. So to me it mainly comes down to whether you want better business quality or bigger single-bet optionality.

george_alto

I wanted to follow-up on ASTS and the questions I wanted to look further into. I ran an analysis on it and this is what was returned: \------------------------------------- **Business Analysis Deep** *Dive Products and Services Overview* AST SpaceMobile's core offering is a space-based cellular broadband network intended for direct access by standard smartphones, enabling connectivity in areas lacking terrestrial coverage. This service is designed for both commercial and government use cases, aiming to eliminate mobile dead zones. The company's infrastructure relies on its BlueBird satellite generations and associated ground and software systems. *Business Model and Revenue Drivers* The company's business model is centered on providing space-based cellular broadband that complements existing terrestrial networks. Revenue is expected to be driven by partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs), government contracts, and potentially direct-to-consumer services. Monetization is contingent on the successful deployment of its satellite constellation, regulatory approvals, and the widespread adoption of compatible devices. *Management Quality* Management's communications, as reflected in investor relations materials, emphasize a long-term vision for global connectivity and highlight key milestones such as satellite launches and strategic partnerships. The company actively engages with investors through quarterly results calls and conference presentations, signaling a commitment to transparency regarding its development trajectory and capital needs. \------------------------------------- It basically is what I thought. They sell their services through mobile carriers who already are in environment with intense competition so they are probably not going to charge their customers extra for broader coverage. And it also states "potentially direct-to-consumer services" so they are going to "try" to sell directly to consumers too. Sorry but I do not see a large enough addressable market for this company to make a ton of money in the future so that multiple is not justified and it will be a very long time before they are profitable, if ever!

Tricky-Ad-6225

ASTS I’d say

csklmf

Just got released from jail RKLB at $76, ASTS at $67 WTF

Playful_Fun_9073

Bought ASTS at an average of 84 and been buying ever since all the way down through all this chaos. Will be buying it for an entire year to build my position. I am a degenerate long term gambler and I feel like this company has the most clear path to being profitable. I can wait for that. So I put $50k in and am DCAing another 50k over this next year. I live in my parent’s basement. Caught Palantir but missed AMD and Micron and the self hate from missing those obvious multibaggers has led me to AssAndTits.

BearyChristmas223

Things visible from space: \- the Great Wall of China \- the pyramids of Giza \- the bags of RKLB and ASTS investors

Yes-Worldliness-7235

ASTS feels like cleaner upside to me, RKLB prob the better company but priced like everyone already found it.

OutsideAd7986

Neither since I’m holding bag on ASTS and NASA

Stunning-Lemon-76

Love $ASTS

Pale-Silver-8178

Fuck it we buy ASTX at these levels as always, ASTS hasnt broken 63 so far pray it doesnt

miners915tx

Did just that but on ASTS....Jesus take the wheel!!

verified-trader

| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **ASTS** ▲ | $84.70 (above) | $74.34 | $67.48 | +13.9% | Jul 21, 9:15 PM | | **Record** | 1W - 0L | 100% | - | - | - |

Seastep

> Analyze both and invest in both if you like what you see. Personally I DCA into ORBX There's finally a thematic ETF that holds both RKLB AND ASTS? Say it ain't so.

TonyStarks81

Every day I assume we have finally found a bottom for ASTS and every day I am wrong again. Two weeks ago they pop on a 1 billion deal and then have done nothing but go down to levels below before the deal went through. This market sucks now.

DondeEstaMeGlasses

Buying ASTS with every dollar I have left

Dick_Indadert

A few months ago Elon stated the spectrum Starlink acquired can not currently be used by cell phones, and it will take about two years to develop a new cell phone chipset to use the newly acquired spectrum to cell phones, then they can start selling them. So how many cell phones with the new chip set will be sold per year starting in about mid to late 2028? How many customers is that? And now SpaceX will need to build larger more advanced satellites to compete with ASTS current satellites, so SpaceX is now three to five years behind, AND SpaceX wants to compete directly with MNOs and not partner with them, while ASTS has signed cooperative partnership agreements with essentially all the largest MNOs in the US, Europe, Japan, and other countries. But ASTS is very bad at meeting its own deadline, goals, even hopes for satellite production, not even launching, just producing the sats and they are way behind. Due to the size and weight (and untested constellation) current SpaceX rockets can only launch 3 at a time, other carriers only 1 or 2 at time. Blue Origin you ask? If their rockets actually worked they could theoretically launch 8 at time, but their last test was a massive explosion destroying the launch pad. So, ASTS has to use SpaceX and this will cost a lot more for more launches. You might just buy the stock now at a low low price, hold for a rip then sell call on top of that - not advice, that's just what I do. Then when the price crashes again buy more stock (if you think the company will actuall survice being so far behind its own schedule).

Prestigious_Key1755

Stop the RKLB and ASTS punishment. Fuck

looool_k_libtard

I’ve literally thought I bought the bottom on names like ASTS, IREN, coreweave, etc every week just for them to fall another 10% next week. It doesn’t stop.

QTpieme

They full ported into RKLB ASTS APLD and other pre revenue

Regenbooggeit

Imagine owning SNDK, MU, RKLB, ASTS & NBIS. My asshole needs PTSD therapy.

Dario_Agger

ASTS doesn't have much money, so they can't pay for all the satellites, launches, executive salaries, coffee k-cups, and other stuff they need to keep their business running. To get around that, they issue new shares of ASTS stock and sell the new shares for money. But every time they create more new shares, it decreases the value of all the existing shares that investors already bought, because each share now represents a smaller percentage of company ownership. RKLB also doesn't have much money, but they manage to bring in enough revenue to cover most of their day-to-day operations. They occasionally issue new RKLB shares to get extra money, but they've done that around 1/30th as much as ASTS over the past year, and the extra money is typically used to acquire smaller companies that increase RKLB's footprint in the industry, returning value to investors in the form of future growth.

blingblingmofo

Show me a rocket company that has long term profitability. Launches are an extremely capital-intensive, low-frequency business with thin margins. Yet somehow we’re supposed to believe Rocketlab is as valuable as Porsche or Mercedes. And ASTS was as valuable as Honda just a few weeks ago.

Bulls_Will_Win

just added 1000 shares of ASTS and 1000 shares of RKLB - will sell covered calls and generate extra income

mukavastinumb

Correct. SpaceX’s satellites are small and not very powerful, so that is why they make thousands of them. ASTS makes the biggest low earth satellites and that is why they need far less of them. ASTS has stated that they need only 90 satellites to have worldwide coverage.

VanceIX

Yeah StarLink has first mover advantage but needs somewhere around 10,000+ satellites to match the throughput of 300 ASTS satellites, and the StarLink satellites need to be replaced every 5 years while ASTS can stay up in the sky for 8+ years.

Berlchicken

I think the difference with a competitor like ASTS is they need far fewer sats in the air. On the one hand that’s obviously hugely competitive so long as Musk continues to be civil and agree to put them in the air with his rockets. But it also reduces contingency when stuff goes wrong - see the Blue Origin fuck-up earlier this year. I think Starlink is, and should be, worried about ASTS.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

both had positive price momentum on their side, and now the former has meta & others selling compute rental on top of them (plus EU fuckery, plus the unfortunate Netherlands unrealized cap gains headwind), and ASTS or other space stocks seem like also rans vs the existing monopoly and fundraising ability of spaceX. it's reasonable to avoid both.

Ok_Wealth_3433

Funny how regards in here want NBIS at 300 and ASTS at 130 but now it’s apparently trash lol. Buying heavily here

Ctofaname

You have ~$25 million invested into ASTS? What is your portfolio size? $200 million dollars?

Ennartee

ASTS has a single market - telecom - if they ever get to market. RKLB has ability to be in the entirety of the space sector, rather than a small and crowded corner of it. There’s no comparison - RKLB is the one with orders of magnitude greater ability to create revenue.

Flipslips

ASTS L band is primarily only for North America. They have significant hurdles to climb to use it elsewhere. Iridium L band is globally accepted meaning it can be used in any country. That is significantly more valuable for ships, planes, and military use. So even though they have more spectrum, it can’t be used nearly as broadly, which is essentially the entire point of the spectrum. ASTS has zero customers, and Iridium has millions.

friiz1337

You mean ASTS and RKLB?

Dude_HaHa

Oof on ASTS..might take a while.

corundum9

friendly reminder that ASTS always bounces at 64ish

Paul_Robert_

Hey guys, can I borrow your time machine? I need to deliver the following message to my past self: SELL! SELL YOU DUMBASS! FOR THE SAKE OF YOUR PORT, SELL WHILE ASTS IS STILL ABOVE $100

14X8000m

RKLB all day long IMO. ASTS can't launch, is missing on quarterly reports and dilluting. RKLB is essentially doing the opposite of this and their Neutron rocket will hopefully be successful.

george_alto

Awesome write-up with good numbers and I'll assume they are all right; that must have taken a good amount of time to put together. Between these two, I would go with Rocket Labs for sure. Based on financials, it's valuation is lower than ASTS (31x vs 42x). But more importantly, I do not get ASTS - and I've spent my career in the telecom industry. Mobile companies would probably be the primary customer for ASTS (assumption). Why would they pay ASTS money for customer calls that used their satellite service meaning since most of the major mobile carriers have both domestic and international service already. In the US, the international service is provided via partnerships with international providers so they are already paying them for the international calls their customers make to those countries. I do not see their need of using ASTS. I must be missing something. Not sure who other customers would be for ASTS; the regular consumer instead of using their mobile carriers international offiering? I'll have to do more research on this because now I am really curious. But the bottom line is that RocketLab is now going to compete with mobile companies via their purchase of AST Spacemobile and SpaceX already has the equivalent service via Starlink. So both of these companies are going to be competing with the mobile carriers so where does that leave ASTS? Who is their customer and who really needs their service; so I'm challenging their total addressable market.

WuTangNameGenerat0r

Need some confirmation that I’m not a moron for holding ASTS PCT and FRVO even though they are running me dry

schoolofhanda

SpaceX market cap $1.82 trillion or 72.8X ASTS. Yeah, I'm taking ASTS lol.

SuspiciousSpyderman

$ASTS looking quite juicy now, too bad i'm already full ported into $HUBB

OakzuTV

ASTS is such a goofy stock

JayRoo83

Buy me a drink first, ASTS

Dude_HaHa

Both ASTS and RKLB breached their 200SMA. Next stop - the bottomless pit.

schoolofhanda

RKLB market cap $46 Billion, ASTS 25 billion. What would be easier to double?

RegularAnalyst4624

Can we just go back to this time where AMD, MU, ASTS and other random stocks just mooned every day? I don't like playing on hard mode

payingtheman

Opened a position in ASTS on Friday around $72-$74/share for this reason. I know these are risky but the potential of ASTS seems massive

Purpletorque

Those companies can't compete with ASTS. In fact, in a few years ASTS will be competing with them when they go direct to satellite with phones that have yet to be built. But until then, there is no competition to broadband connections to existing phones plus all new phones for at least the next few years. It will be beyond 2030 before Amazon and SpaceX can provide the same service as ASTS but they will never be able to provide service to existing phones.

Ok_Wealth_3433

All in ASTS

Purpletorque

Right, once ASTS gets the sats up and flips the switch, all of the cash flow will pretty much come at once as they are already building out ground stations and the infrastructure and the MNO's are chomping at the bit to provide this service all over the planet. High cash flow high growth equals 40 to 50x multiple on say $2 to 2 billion cash flow in the next year.

Purpletorque

Hold out two fingers. The left one is RKLB, the right one is ASTS. Slam those two fingers on the edge of a table and purchase the one that hurts the most. This is how I make all of my life decisions.

Lost_Jellyfish_3574

Surely full port ASTS ?