AZ

UpwardCharterhouse

Try the American South West. SoCal, AZ, CO all have what you are looking for.

StockNCryptoGodfathr

With all the strong competition I would value it nearer its 5 year valuation low of 16x earnings for a floor. Doesn’t mean it’ll get there but that’s $74.88 off next years earnings projection of $4.68 EPS. This would be a great spot to Sell a LEAP for some extra cash or do a long Buy/Write that gets you close to that strike or if your a Buy/Hold guy use the 15-30-45 strategy to get 100 shares. 15 here, 30 at $81 and 45 at $75. Also gets your CB close to that. BlackRock is popping up on every street corner and DutchBros is still building here in AZ and BlackRifle ( My personal favorite ) has been finally building physical stores and hitting shelf space at Walmart. I know China has some big competitors too. All that to say even owning it here doesn’t seem horrible looking at its longterm valuation multiples.

PlumDumbCumGetchySum

Same thing they said about AZ., NM, and 10 others

TheAZRealtor

Why is illegal immigration a bad thing? I’m in AZ and there’s tons of hot new Latinas to choose from

YoloOnTsla

Believe it or not, I have. No cold brew, the espresso is good any cafe you go to. Pretty much drank double espresso the whole time, had a cafe latte or 2. But Italy is a completely different environment, you can walk from one end of Rome to the other and find 100 cafes in between. Can’t do that in say, Phoenix, AZ. So we require drive throughs, and Starbucks really excels in providing a quick, solid coffee. Plus, I’d bet 7/10 Starbucks customers get a frappe/milkshake coffee abomination.

JohnnySquesh

Thank you. Got mine living in AZ and CA as a kid, I imagine. Sorry for your loss.

W2Capital

I'm looking at a2z smart tech ($AZ). Interesting company, in short they developed an AI assisted grocery shopping cart, Tech that can be fitted to existing trolleys. Trialling in carrefour, also supply into the Israeli defence industry apparently. At 0.42 and been annihilated by the market, but some analyst keeps reiterating an $18 price target.

Bronze_Rager

Imo being Taiwanese and investing in the largest TW company is interconnected, especially since its part of national security. I personally do not think most of the investors in TSMc understand Silicon shield viewpoint from 1980s-2000s and then from the 2000s years plus. It was easy to see (from a TW perspective) delays on the AZ fab while also being easy to see that the Japan fab wasn't going to have any delays. Worker rights in US and western countries are a great things (from a worker's perspective) but terrible from a business perspective. Understanding the geopolitics behind why its easy to create fabs in low worker rights countries and vice versa is/was important in investing in TSMc. Fabbing is hard work and very labor intensive, which is extremely costly in western countries. Just like how its easy to establish a high speed railroad in Asian countries but difficult to do in western countries like the US. Do you really feel that the investors on WSB really understand these important concepts? I'm not so sure, as people still investing on Intel fabs here...

Bronze_Rager

Copy and pasted from above. Imo being Taiwanese and investing in the largest TW company is interconnected, especially since its part of national security. I personally do not think most of the investors in TSMc understand Silicon shield viewpoint from 1980s-2000s and then from the 2000s years plus. It was easy to see (from a TW perspective) delays on the AZ fab while also being easy to see that the Japan fab wasn't going to have any delays. Worker rights in US and western countries are a great things (from a worker's perspective) but terrible from a business perspective. Understanding the geopolitics behind why its easy to create fabs in low worker rights countries and vice versa is/was important in investing in TSMc. Fabbing is hard work and very labor intensive, which is extremely costly in western countries. Just like how its easy to establish a high speed railroad in Asian countries but difficult to do in western countries like the US.

Bronze_Rager

Imo being Taiwanese and investing in the largest TW company is interconnected, especially since its part of national security. I personally do not think most of the investors in TSMc understand Silicon shield viewpoint from 1980s-2000s and then from the 2000s years plus. It was easy to see (from a TW perspective) delays on the AZ fab while also being easy to see that the Japan fab wasn't going to have any delays. Worker rights in US and western countries are a great things (from a worker's perspective) but terrible from a business perspective. Understanding the geopolitics behind why its easy to create fabs in low worker rights countries and vice versa is/was important in investing in TSMc. Fabbing is hard work and very labor intensive, which is extremely costly in western countries. Just like how its easy to establish a high speed railroad in Asian countries but difficult to do in western countries like the US.

Valianne11111

I talked to someone in AZ who said the same thing

Significant-Let9889

It’s Kari Lake leading polls in AZ. Electing wingnuts is our greatest geopolitical risk.

MtTime420

I’d start looking at international investments because the lowered rates would imply to me that borrowing could become fluid again. Also infrastructure small cap companies could do well, like EV infrastructure companies because of the federal money still to be dispersed. Also heavy machinery companies like $CAT would move to new highs as more and more companies begin spending the hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure buildouts. Not to mention all the AZ fab development for the next 2-3 years. Also real estate, in theory, should do better, specifically commercial properties as it becomes “cheaper” to buy distressed properties.

Samjabr

When they opened the first one in Scottsdale, AZ many years ago, the line was about 3 hours. I couldn't understand why people were so stupid - it's just not that good.

Early_Divide3328

.... and part 2 of the case study will be the story of how to rebuild a once broken company from the ashes. $INTC will rise like a Phoenix from Phoenix, AZ. (what long term holders like me are thinking ) AMD was able to do this a few years ago - it's Intel's turn now.

lawboop

100+ p/e. Multiples of 1 PEG ranging from 7! to 3!. So. No. Make an argument for some call set up. At that valuation that’s like 22 need-to-be-profitable small micron plants (not an expert), in a bunch of desert places run by morons (see, AZ, generally. It’s not politics if true.), I won’t see built in my lifetime in order to support that current valuation. And I don’t see them funding research into cubic boron, optic, and quantum phase (not an expert) with the month to month “keep it above $35!!!”/ATT approach. TSM/NVDA, etc. those are like corporations and stories written by AC Clarke and a history repeat. The big science leaves tyrants. (Not an expert) Positions in all. I won’t buy sell for a while, you all safe.

cbusoh66

TSM is not moving until after 4/19 and they report guidance for upcoming quarter/year. Everyone piled into TSM after the NVDA move, expecting similar results but TSM has 43% of its revenues from Smartphones chips and Apple is their biggest customer, Apple is having issues in China and elsewhere. Also, TSMC is operating at maximum capacity, so it doesn't matter that everyone in the world wants their chips, they just don't have the capability to produce more, that puts a ceiling on their growth. Maybe in a year or so when the AZ and Japan plants are fully operational, but not yet. TSM is fairly valued here, it shouldn't go down much but its upside is very limited unless smartphone shipments take off again and geopolitical pressures ease a bit.

JayBowdy

[AZ retirement program](https://www.defenseworld.net/2024/04/10/arizona-state-retirement-system-has-3-17-million-stock-position-in-globe-life-inc-nysegl.html). Regards.

gnocchicotti

Oof Guess AZ is gonna socialize the losses, really unprecedented stuff here

TheYakster

I live in AZ. We have burrito shops on every corner. And I don’t pay $15 dollars for it either 🤣 But I could see it being popular in other areas.

DotJun

The ones I’ve gone to in AZ has had long lines for years as well.

Significant_Sort8948

TSMC is planning on having water recycling at AZ plant. But as far as I know it's no where near being ready for use.

SEEANDDONTSQUEAL

https://www.barrons.com/articles/jamie-dimon-investor-letter-interest-rates-jpmorgan-stock-39ff8b86?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqDwgAKgcICjCf1skBMPfLFTCluPkB&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=ARTJ-U96gFCbie_E1UlTyCMsBEjPjxXsulucG86CXPnQYd4XTn3Nshn_-amDjZZB9PHNN18waPL4v9YvCq6BrA766CV2&gaa_ts=6614a101&gaa_sig=Gep5Mv3HukjOg80Um0aqZ5Bp9lSyBwz_bYsLkNZjqOBGHSTRvZKxn8UjEdo72wQQ0r0tEohZ0AZ1vyjy2m_R7w%3D%3D

Metron_Seijin

It is insane. AZ are being really irresponsible with water conservancy since they got that sweet deal with the sharing agreement. Theres no promotion of conservancy at all or responsible useage.  Still growing massive amounts of alfalfa in the desert for saudis and not taking care of the water quality in the aquafiers. Not to mention all the golf courses, pools, and increasing droughts in the future due to global warming.

penisaurRex

There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc). Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered. There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.

penisaurRex

There are a bunch of semiconductor companies already there. A lot the companies that support the production of semiconductors are also there (wafer suppliers, chemical plants, semiconductor equipment support service providers, etc). Dunno why you all are so set on there not being enough water for production. The water they use to clean the semiconductors have to be ultra-pure water anyway. Lake/ocean water has to go through a purification process to even be usable and delivered. There is also 15 solar energy companies in AZ that help build and provide solar projects for data centers.

AnotherFaceOutThere

Rest assured Arizona has been on the cutting edge of chip manufacturing since the beginning. Going all the way back the 80s. AZ and OR are probably the 2 best states containing knowledge for this in the United States.

iwantsdback

Does Biden need to win AZ or something?

SafeSoftware4023

TSMC claims to have spent 65B in capex on the 3 AZ plants till date. And they won't start operating for a few more years. > "TSMC’s total capital expenditure for the Phoenix, Arizona site to more than US$65 billion" 4nm : mid 2025 2nm : mid 2028 2nm+ : end of decade > TSMC Arizona’s first fab is on track to begin production leveraging 4nm technology in first half of 2025. The second fab will produce the world’s most advanced 2nm process technology with next-generation nanosheet transistors in addition to the previously announced 3nm technology, with production beginning in 2028. The third fab will produce chips using 2nm or more advanced processes, with production beginning by the end of the decade. Each of the three fabs, like all of TSMC’s advanced fabs, will have cleanroom area approximately double the size of an industry standard logic fab. The $6.6B is a drop in the bucket compared to the massive capex. I don't even expect the 4nm fab to be operational in 2025.

sephirothFFVII

Theoretically, but TSMC has a steep learning curve to building infrastructure in the US. There's been discussion on some of their shortfalls on how they're going about the AZ projects. These guys aren't dumb and hopefully will figure it out but they've managed to piss off a lot of the trades in the desert south west

Draiko

Well, fab 21 in AZ was supposed to be in full deployment by end of this year, but it's been delayed to next year. The other two are supposed to be fully deployed before 2030.

HeistbullahRippabook

6B subsidies announced for AZ plant from govt 25% tax credit for cap ex applied in advance

Eclipsed830

Taiwan is irreplaceable, at least within the current decade or two. It would cost **trillions** of dollars to replace Taiwan. The TSMC fabs being built in AZ, for example, will have a monthly output of 30,000 12-inch equivalent wafers. TSMC Taiwan based monthly output is over 2.2 million 12-inch equivalent wafers. Not to mention that the AZ fabs will be two generations behind what Taiwan has by the time they open. Not to mention also the other semiconductor companies based in Taiwan, like UMC which is the 3rd largest fab company in the world by output.

Eclipsed830

TSMC plant in AZ will have a monthly output of approximately 30,000 12-inch equivalent wafers. TSMC Taiwan based monthly output is over 2.2 million 12-inch equivalent wafers... And will be two generations ahead of the AZ plant by the time it opens.

Jay-Diggles

We see like 6 a day here in Scottsdale, AZ

CexySatan

I’m in AZ. I take it from Scottsdale to downtown Phoenix which is around a 45-50 minute drive (can see 33 minutes remaining on last section of video). I’ve also booked it in other areas around the valley here

Future-Back8822

Moab, UT to Page, AZ Model Y LR could barely make that trek, starting out with more than 30 miles on the guess-o-meter...and barely driving 55mph and eventually 45mph as the gues-o-meter went to 0...while dino-cars and hybrids zoomed by at 65mph+

UFO-crackpot

[it's the same old song](https://youtu.be/oZLG9MV5GvQ?si=-f5f-7BSIZ5bO8AZ&t=31), just with a different meaning since the DEA's been gone.

Rexman65

Everything TSM has committed (so far) to the AZ project, is just under 5% of their projected revenues for the next 5 years.

chaching_owl

TSM>INTEL>SAMSUNG no shit, people with brain would know, semi-manufacturing is labor intensive. The west is full of people crying about going to work or working a long shift. like BA, intel is just using daddy's money to stay alive. TSM didnt want to go to AZ in the first place but daddy US is too demanding. PS. ppl betting on Intel are the ones that cries china will invade taiwan.

BobtheDead

Right, that was disappointing news, meanwhile the construction in AZ is unfazed. There’s a fairly large gulf between a brand new build out in Ohio versus expanding in AZ.

ecpowerhouse27

Good call. “Plan to be solar based”. I live in California and drive between here and AZ, and they have large stations with full solar coverage. But youre right, currently not necessarily solar powered. Looks like a mix of solar, nuclear, and coal right now.

Disastrous_Gift_2003

Ok well I just got back from India and do remodels for exclusively the Jewish community in Scottsdale AZ and my sisters a Kangaroo

Joker8392

Use your wife’s boyfriends ssn to get an ID in AZ. They’re good for like 50 years. Flee to Cape Verde and become a drug mule for Diddy?

Substantial-Fly350

That is weird, APS just had the corporation commission approve a rate hike a few weeks back in AZ. Pinnacle owns APS

kuvrterker

Cool I don't live in AZ

Bronze_Rager

Yes I know that theory, but it still doesn't make sense. If the US gov really wanted to have high end chips, they would just subsidize the TSMc plant in AZ. Intel doesn't have the capability to build what they (aka the high end tech companies like Apple). Intel has been using tsmc fabs for a long time. I don't buy into the theory that Intel can just buy high end ASML machines and just plug and play. Semi fabbing is super hard to have high yields on 3nm chips. China's largest foundry has been trying to poach Tsmc engineers for years. Post 1980s Intel always over promises and under delivers every single time. Until their CEO is heavy into the tech aspect with multiple engineering degrees, I think its going to keep doing the same shit. Every good semi company's CEO has a heavy engineering background. Tsmc (Mark Liu), AMD (Lisa Su), NVDA (Jensen), etc. Intel is like BA. Shitty company and products but gets the government teat to suck off and survive.

RickMuffy

To add to that, here in AZ, there's a plumbing company that bought out all the competition. My brother's company services their vans, have about 10 different vendors in the parking lot, they basically just switch uniforms based on workload.

Josepth_Blowsepth

I am waiting until more foundries are built which consume the materials they sell. I am not aware of any big operation opening this year. Maybe AZ OR and OH next year with TSM and INTC.

hung_like__podrick

Haven’t followed Emerson much since they sold Liebert, though they still have a big stake in Copeland and most manufacturers are still using their compressors. Virginia has always been the big one for the big data center sites. I think Oregon as well is seeing a lot of growth and AZ has some big sites also. I don’t follow that as much now that I am focused on my local market.

SkrillieVanillie

Ya I’m from Seattle but live in AZ for a while now so went from amaze balls to no balls..try harumi and/or little saigon those two probs the best…

mrbuhtkis

The Asian food in AZ is awful. I had to learn to make my own noodles because these places all taste like mall food.

Coffee-and-puts

Gotcha, yea because I would think some initiative would have been underway to even make a bunch of plants to dominate the market. I remember that company mp materials took over the mining operations in nevada but I never heard of the AZ plant.

Confident-Act9062

TSMC's Arizona fab is slated for 3nm. TSMC's working on 2nm R&D, with 2nm-capable fabs to be built in Taiwan. Capacity for the AZ fab is \~20K wafers per month, while gigafabs (of which there are four) in Taiwan produce 100K wafers per month, each. The AZ fab, which is already delayed, will be one of the most advanced fabs on US soil. But the most advanced fabs in the world won't be in the US. Wafertech was and still is a fab for legacy nodes. Betting on Intel is betting that they can get their shit together with their foundry. I have my doubts, but Intel is serious about it. Don't count out Samsung.

FoolsGoldMouthpiece

Trouble with the new fab in AZ. Was bad enough to lead to the 'retirement' of chairman Liu.

SirGlass

> I'm calling BS. I feel that my expenses have went up closer to 50% in this time period You know they just do not release the number and expect you to believe it. You can go on USA Bureau of Labor Statistics and read the numbers and the data they use to calculate inflation The problem is its hard to calculate inflation for the "average" American. I own my home with a low rate mortgage , I own my car fully paid off , I work from home and drive like 10 miles a week. My personal inflation is going to be different vs some 24 year old with their first job trying to buy a car /home / stuff Also the USA is a big place and housing costs are different between Phonix AZ and St Louis MO So before calling bull shit and spouting conspiracies what data do you not agree with ? It has to be something like 1. Price data , well you can look at all the prices they list for 10,000 goods and services ; What price data do you think is wrong 2. Weighting data - well weighting data is a bit hard because everyone spending preferences are all different. So the people that figure out inflation have to give weights to each sector like housing, food, energy , misc so they have to somewhat say "The average American spends 25% on housing 20% on transportation , 15% on food....." Now that weighting could be vastly different then your personal spending habbits .

RedTruck1989

The [Intel](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Intel+Ocotillo+Campus/@33.2414921,-111.8897554,1342m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x872a55595c22b693:0x386ce373138cfdf0!2sChandler,+AZ!3b1!8m2!3d33.3061605!4d-111.8412502!16zL20vMHFwanQ!3m5!1s0x872b003fccad9fc7:0x85231a1523be249d!8m2!3d33.2410961!4d-111.8828675!16s%2Fg%2F1tcyxw_8?entry=ttu) construction project in Arizona is gigantic....

Nicaddicted

I mean Biden’s about to announce 10B to intel today or tomorrow in AZ but I doubt the stock moves more than $1.5

BagholderForLyfe

TSMC was hiring engineers a few years ago. I even interviewed with them. You would have to go to Tiewan for 1.5 years to learn the ropes then move to AZ to work in new foundry.

s1n0d3utscht3k

Ultraboosts are still great. Recent gen 23s (UB Light) are solid casual trainers or lifestyle running trainers, certainly at least or likely better than worse-every-year Hoka Bondis and in the same ballpark as NB 1080 v12s. And Adizero (SL) are great running shoes—not quite Sauconys but they’re a solid performance running shoe. Though posts like which you replied show the exact problem Nike has—does theyretrashguy have a year old pair of trashed UBs or AZs? prob not. but he believes he would if he bought them so…. quality ain’t matter if you can’t get them in consumer’s hands. that’s what happens when you make too many different products and some/many are trash—you ruin your entire brand. does it matter if—on price and quality—UB 23s and 1080 v12s are comparable or AZ SL and END Pro 4s are comparable ?? not if ppl think Adidas make trash 🤷 i post at length below about this—there’s a consumer shift for shoe trends to brands with higher **perceived** quality, performance, and tbh, simplicity.

asphaltaddict33

Nevative. I think this is in Quartzite, AZ which is a mega winter RV destination, and a forgotten wasteland the other 8-9 months of the year

ChatCoachDevs

Land is cheap in AZ. RV parks gotta be pretty low maintenance, since it's just power outlets, water hookups, waste hookups, and land. Not bad.

Nicaddicted

Probably going to buy another 800 shares of intel before Biden speaks in AZ Wednesday Was hoping intel would hit 39 but it just won’t go below 41.50

EasterHam

I'm pretty sure the bookies at DK are asleep with ASU/AZ baseball after the last two games. Op put it on the U 14.5 runs at -115 for today's game. Oh wait wrong casino.

thedmob

Please tell me what state I would run into license cap issue between a GTI and Tru meter? Fl no caps. PA no caps on merger/acquisition. Tru isn’t in NY, MN, NJ, MA, or IL. GTI isn’t in AZ, GA or WV. So you are talking about assets in MD and OH. Doesn’t seem like a huge issue…

Past-Inside4775

POTUS is going be at Intel in AZ next week announcing billions in grants

MannieOKelly

Open a 529 plan for each of your kids (or planned kids.) Every State has a plan, and brokers (e.g. Vanguard) also offers them by piggybacking on a State's program--AZ in the case of Vanguard. Shop around but I think most have similar benefits and conditions. If you use your home state's plan some of your contribs might be deductible on your state income tax. [https://www.sec.gov/about/reports-publications/investor-publications/introduction-529-plans](https://www.sec.gov/about/reports-publications/investor-publications/introduction-529-plans)

ImyourDingleberry999

Because they're building a giant fab in AZ knowing the diversity hire HR managers will only hire from "under-represented communities". They aren't making chips anytime soon.

Recent-Ad6777

Yeah, I had 300 shares of Tesla in ... 2016, I believe,.. anyway before ANY of the splits. I swing traded it for about 60 days. Literally the FIRST buy was the day before the reported crash in AZ that killed the bicyclist. So I lost on that one, won on the next several, and ended up with a little over 20k gain. ​ Nice??? Yeah I thought so.. . until the first split, then the second, then the crazy runs into the 800s, etc. Even with the current price action, I would still have made over $1M if I would have just INVESTED and HELD instead of trading. And still, today, I trade.

DACA_GALACTIC

Are you still accumulating at these low prices? Delta assembly facility in AZ is almost complete. Two Delta to be built starting mid-2024, finished mid-2025, flight tests 2nd half of 2025, commercial flights starting 2026. Each ship can fly 2 times a week and they've bumped the new price to $600 K per seat, it can carry 6 paying passengers too. Ticket sales open again once closer to 2026. The next upcoming flight will have 4 paying seats and average of $800K per seat. I like accumulating at these levels too.

G0RD0N_CLARK

Wait until AZ runs out of water ... that factory doesn't seem sustainable.

gamerinn_

TSM first in line to win a $5 billion grant, building new facilities across Taiwan, Japan and AZ, forecasted 21 - 26% sales growth. Supplies over 60% of the world’s semiconductors, over 90% of the most advanced ones. Great growth and competitive advantage to grow organically. 🚀 🌕 I want this to pump though cause I’m impatient 🚀 🌕  Next week nvidia conference, 4/18 earnings 🚀 🌕 

CannaVestments

Mixed Q4 showing from AYR to close out the year, with revenue and aEBITDA in-line but also elevated OpEx that reduced cash flow in the quarter. The company undertook a major restructuring effort, pushing out nearly $400M in debt several years but at the cost of dramatic dilution (share count was roughly 77M as of the end of 2023 and roughly 136M as of the end of Feb with the restructuring now complete). Management did improve margins throughout the year, reduced costs, and exited an unprofitable market in AZ, although cash flow remained negative when adjusting for taxes. Management highlights that only 15 of 91 stores currently are selling adult-use, with Ohio (3 stores) set to turn later this year and Florida (64 stores) and Pennsylvania (9 stores) both with potential in 2025 and beyond. Comparison to Q3: **Revenue:** Q3 $114.4M to Q4 $114.8M *Flat results in-line with consensus and guidance given in Q3 by the company, although down from the $124M they did last year which included the now-discontinued AZ operations. FY 2023 rev was $463M, up 10% on a comparable basis to 2022 although down slightly from the $466M including AZ in 22'. AYR opened 5 new stores in the quarter- 2 in FL and 3 in OH that are through an affiliate that they have a right to purchase in the future. Management guided to flat to modest growth in Q1 as recovery from FL cultivation issues continues, with growth accelerating late in the year with OH adult-use (where they have 3 stores and a T1 grow). PA and FL are huge potential opportunities later in 2025/26.* **aEBITDA:** Q3 $28.4M to Q4 $29.8M *Small jump here modestly ahead of consensus ($28M), with margin expanding from 24.9% in Q3 to 25.9% in Q4. Adjustments here of $9.2M in one-time costs and $3.1M of SBC. FY aEBITDA was $114.0M for a 24.6% margin, up 51% on a comparable basis from 2022.* **Gross margins:** Q3 42.0% to Q3 43.0% *Small increase here- not bad but not great either.* **Operating Income:** Q3 -$1.5M to Q4 -$9.5M *Drop here as marginally higher gross profit was offset by a jump in OpEx.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $49.6M to Q4 $58.9M *Big jump here with revenue flat, with OpEx as a % of revenue rising from 43.4% in Q3 to 51.3% in Q4- very high relative to peers and an area that needs improvement.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q3 $20.1M to Q4 $2.1M *Drop here for $27.2M YTD and worse when adjusted for unpaid taxes in the quarter. Adjusting for income tax accruals, tax-adjusted OCF was flat in Q1, -$18.1M in Q2, +$12.1M in Q3, and -$14.4M in Q4 for -$20.7M in 2023. CapEx was $6.9M in Q4 and $27.7M in 2023 so slightly negative FCF in both Q4 and 2023 as a whole.* **Cash:** Q3 $72.8M to Q4 $50.8M *Modest OCF was offset by CapEx spend, $9M in debt issuance costs, and repayments of other liabilities. Debt quite high at $434M, much of which was extended as of Feb 2024. Income tax payable also high at $90.1M now, although as noted, management will be attempting to recapture some of their 280e tax paid.*

gamerinn_

TSM first in line to win a $5 billion grant, building new facilities across Taiwan, Japan and AZ, forecasted 21 - 26% sales growth. Supplies over 60% of the world’s semiconductors, over 90% of the most advanced ones. Great growth and competitive advantage to grow organically. 🚀 🌕 I want this to pump though cause I’m impatient 🚀 🌕  Next week nvidia conference, 4/18 earnings 🚀 🌕 

Dont-Doubt-Me

I haven't heard an update in a couple quarters but they were supposed to be using some of the cash from the assets they sold in AZ a couple quarters ago as capex for the NY facility.

type_error

They are having a lot of trouble in AZ because they can’t find skilled workers. Muricans 2 dum 

gamerinn_

TSM first in line to win a $5 billion grant, building new facilities across Taiwan, Japan and AZ, forecasted 21 - 26% sales growth. Supplies over 60% of the world’s semiconductors, over 90% of the most advanced ones. Great growth and competitive advantage to grow organically. 🚀 🌕 I want this to pump though cause I’m impatient 🚀 🌕 

MashTheGash2018

I saw a Cyber here in Glendale AZ yesterday and it was the ugliest piece of shit ever and finger prints galore.

itsnotthatbad21

I haven’t been in a minute, I know when I lived in a rural part of AZ it was a godsend since I didn’t have to go all the way into town to a big block retailers for little things here and there

Xxxtrabonus

I live miles away from the new AZ plant which should start producing chips by the end of 2024. Another 40 billion dollar cotract was signed for a second plant to begin construction in 2026. The next NVIDIA  [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qm\_T2VB8HQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qm_T2VB8HQ)

FamousPussyGrabber

It is bull-ish because US taxpayers are gifting Intel like 3 US Fab facilities in OR, AZ, and OH to end their addiction to foreign manufacturing.

unclefire

Intel is doing a crap ton of construction in the Chandler AZ area. So it’s not like they’re like other companies that outsource all the fab.

CannaVestments

Main issues I see are: 1) Tilray holds convertible debt that is contingent upon some sort of federal change that allows US companies to uplist. That obviously hasn't happened so TIlray arguably can't take over the license just yet without creating some sort of new US-based structure (similar to what Sundial has with Sunstream). Possible but takes a lot of time/money/effort 2) Even though Tilray is a debt holder, Medmen has quite a few outstanding debts/bills that are higher priority in a restructuring event, namely $100M+ owed to the US government. As Medmen operations are wound down, assets will be sold off (like we saw in AZ/NV already) and some of those bills will be paid. Hard to gauge how many licenses are even left when the immediate bills have been paid

gamerinn_

Would hold…TSM had an amazing monthly report, news came out Friday TSM was in the lead to win 5billion grant for there AZ factory. Institutions are weary about cpi report. If it’s good market should 🚀. Literally no bad new came out about TSM recently 

cbusoh66

TSM is being pumped for no reason, it's not an extension of the AI play and NVDA (majority of their revenue comes from Smartphone chips and Apple) and they already guided to lower Q1 '24. Their chairman was forced to retire over the handling of the AZ plant -- TSM founder didn't think it would succeed. Longterm, they're in a great position, but these next several months are going to be trying as they rebuild new nodes to compete with Intel's 18A and until Apple gets its shit together.

Fikkafikation

Some pointers: \- If China invades Taiwan, in specific the Semiconductor market will get disrupted but TSM has now fabs in other countries - Germany, Japan and US. For China this will be a bigger setback and more to lose. China would love for Taiwan to join but without military force, otherwise they lose. \- The AZ fab has had setbacks due to technical expertise shortages - just goes to show how complex this tech is. There have been so many posts that Intel, Samsung can replicate and take their market share. It's not that easy realistically. \- The second AZ fab has been mostly delayed by US's own faults. Call it politics or whatever but it's not TSMs fault. \- TSM is always backlogged with orders. If you look at their customer list, it's huge. It's not as if NVDA shuts down they lose money. NVDA is their #5 customer in their long list of customers, AAPL is #1.

_mattske

As of January the TSM AZ factory has faced set-backs and apparently aren't really making anything here yet. It has been in the works for over (2) years but of course all the benefits it projects are probably "priced in" as of now.

SirMoola

So I’ve studied their 10ks, and they talked about the implications of having the factory being built in Phoenix AZ. It basically was saying it would increase revenues. But recently, it came out the factory is delayed by about 1.5 years which caused stock prices to drop. If you have a long time horizon it’s good to go long and buy shares of them. Once the factory opens to production net income (earnings) will rise. Also, stock has lower valuation due to looming war with China and Taiwan. This would hedge some of that risk by having factories in the states and EU.

Wave_Existence

I heard TSMC was building two massive plants in AZ the first of which is 4nm and the second is 3nm but they were still waiting to see the size of US incentives would determine what they commit to.

mjf389

Appreciate the info, but where are you seeing 2.2million monthly? I see AZ fab at 30k starting 2023, and expected to ramp. Taiwan at 100k monthly for same unit, although 3nm production recently began and may have shifted some of Taiwan production capacity from 5nm.

Eclipsed830

Just so you are aware, the AZ fab will have a monthly output of about 30,000 12-inch equivalent wafers. Taiwan-based TSMC monthly output is about 2.2 million 12-inch equivalent wafers.

mjf389

TSMC hedging against China by building new fabricators in Phoenix Az. Seems like smart money to buy now. Worst case - China invaded and US sabotages the TSMC fabricators before China takes them and reverse engineers them/repurposes. Best case China doesn't invade and TSMC has their new AZ fabricators as well as their original ones as well...

bazjoe

They haven’t made one chip yet in AZ. The new fab building and the TI are exciting ongoing processes .. but best guess is production starts early 25, pushed back from spring 24 timetable. Ongoing labor disputes are hampering progress. The Taiwanese culture is to just work any crazy hours to finish a project, resulting in 60+hour weeks which the American trades are not used to.

LowIllustrator245

correct, and because of their culture they will have trouble hiring for their AZ fab.

Cid-Itad

This. Suicide and divorce rate in Hsinchu is measurably higher than the rest of Taiwan, something nobody really talks about. Read on Glassdoor the complaints by American engineers hired in AZ, the company work culture at TSMC is no different than that of Toyota in Aichi prefecture. It's unfortunate that Mexico doesn't yet have the educated workforce needed for a modern fab but there's a reason why you don't see white people (or African Americans for that matter) picking fruits and vegetables.

gamerinn_

This hasn’t been finalized but I’m holding calls up 100% they use to be up over 200% before institutions decided to drop the market nearly $300 billion. But yeah it would be for their factory in AZ 💎 🙌🏼 

bajagfjdlbkaoa

Yea US is dumping 40bn into tsm for a second fab to be built in AZ. First one will be producing in q4 this year maybe q1 of 25. Nvda we all know is trading irrationally I don't think there's anything to justify as far as the price goes. How can you put a value on ai when we are just starting to explore the surface. The old way of thinking about value of something is long gone when crypto came into the picture.

WSBster

2nd factory going in AZ. First factory is already built and building chips.

spacegrab

what? They're building a giant fab facility in AZ to the tune of $40B. 1,128 acres.

CannaVestments

A relatively solid Q4 showing to finish the year for Curaleaf, with revenue and aEBITDA ahead of expectations although underlying cash flow generation still trails peers with a still bloated balance sheet. CURA completed the beneficial (although painful) process of exiting 6 markets over the course of the year, which reduced SG&A substantially, enhanced margins, and improved cash flow while focusing on scaling core markets in FL/PA/IL/AZ/NJ. With exposure to a number of new or potential near-term Adult-use markets like CT/NJ/OH/NY/FL/PA, as well as potential expansion in Germany and other European markets, CURA has several growth opportunities ahead- needed to improve cash flow and start paying down liabilities. Note that CURA only included an abbreviated balance sheet and CF statement unlike usual so don't have full read-through into the numbers yet. Comparison to Q3: **Revenue:** Q3 $333.2 to Q4 $345.3M *3.6% sequential growth to finish the year was nicely ahead of analyst expectations ($338M), up 1% from the $340.2M posted 1 year ago on a continuing operations basis but down from the total $352.5M in Q4 22' including exited markets. Total 23' revenue was $1.35B, up 6% YOY. Cura opened 1 new store in FL in Q4 for 6 total in 2023, and also began wholesaling into the AU market in NY in December.* **Adjusted EBITDA:** Q3 $75.3M to Q4 $83.0M *10% sequential growth was also ahead of consensus ($81M), with margin expanding from 22.6% in Q3 to 24.0% in Q4 and up 490bps YOY. Nice to see improvement as Cura exited operations in 6 states during the year (CA/CO/OR/MI/KY/ME) while scaling in core states. Adjustments of $10.4M in one-time costs, $5.8M of SBC, and a $46M impairment taken in the quarter. FY 23' aEBITDA was $304M, down from the $315M posted in 2022.* **Gross Margins:** Q3 45.2% to Q4 45.2% *Flat here at a solid level.* **Operating Income:** Q3 $15.2M to Q4 $14.0M *Down slightly as OpEx increase offset gross profit growth.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $134.8M to Q4 $142.2M *Jump here marginally greater than top-line increase, with OpEx as a % of revenue rising from 40.5% in Q3 to 41.2% in Q4- a decent figure here, much better than the past few years although higher than top peers.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q3 $45.3M to Q4 $18.3M *Drop here to finish the year at $91.2M in reported OCF from continuing operations. Note that Cura didn't include a CF summary like they usually do so don't have insight into tax/inventory/etc dynamics that may have played a part in the quarterly fluctuations. CapEx was $16.1M in Q4 and $65M for 2023 for FCF of $2.2M in Q4 and $25.8M in 2023.* **Cash:** Q3 $118.1M to Q4 $91.8M *Again, dont have the full CF statement and Cura provided only an abbreviated balance sheet so little read into dynamics here. OCF offset by CapEx and what appears to be some sort of reduction in current liabilities. Debt stands at $587.8M, up very slightly from Q4. This is a big number, with $100M+ noted in interest expense in 2023.*