BDC

ptexpat

# Belden Reports Record Second Quarter 2026 Results Thu, July 30, 2026 at 4:30 AM PDT **ST. LOUIS, July 30, 2026**\--([BUSINESS WIRE](https://www.businesswire.com/))--Belden Inc. (NYSE: BDC) ("Belden" or the "Company"), a global full-stack networking solutions company, today reported fiscal second quarter results for the period ended June 28, 2026. **Second Quarter 2026 Highlights** * Record revenues of $750 million, up 12% y/y and up 8% y/y organically * GAAP EPS of $1.74, up 14% y/y * Adjusted EPS of $2.34, up 24% y/y * Record orders of $836 million, up 19% y/y with a book-to-bill of 1.11 * Completed the previously announced acquisition of RUCKUS Networks on July 1, 2026, after the end of the second quarter "Belden delivered a record second quarter, with record revenue of $750 million, up 12% year over year, record orders of $836 million, up 19% year over year with a book-to-bill of 1.11, and adjusted EPS of $2.34, up 24% year over year," said Ashish Chand, President and CEO of Belden Inc. "Demand across our end markets is robust and broad-based, and our results reflect the strength of that environment. We have been building our presence in AI data centers for several quarters, and that investment is beginning to show up in our order book. Physical AI, the deployment of intelligent, autonomous systems across factories and distribution centers, is an emerging opportunity we are well-positioned to capture. With RUCKUS now part of Belden, we deliver every layer of the network, from passive infrastructure to Wi-Fi 7 to intelligent cloud management, from a single source. We are excited about what this platform means for our customers and our growth."

Various_Couple_764

keep in mind private credit is illequid asset while BDC stock is a liquid assets . Also the it is rumored that private credit has a lot of money loaned to AI and software. This rumor has NOT been confirmed. Also Private credit is not required to list any details of the loans they have made. BDC in comparison have to make the loan data public. For private credit you have to apply to invest you money in the fund and once approved you give them your money. And in general you have to be rick to invest in private credit. You cannot pull the money out at any. The investor has to request there money back. BDC are similar but there stock is publicly traded on the stock market. so to buy in you buy the stock. Which youncan sell at any time. So a publicly traded BDC is a liquid asset and By law publicly traded BDC must make data about there loans public. And there's no evidence that the publicly traded BDC are overly exposed to AI and software. And typically private grid it restricts withdrawal to 5% of all money invested. But that said some publicly traded BDC like blue owl run separate private credit. companes. Still blue owl looks OK. Regardless there has been a lot of selling pressure that has caused a substantial reduction in the share price of public BDCs. And any problems in private credit might not be known until the AI bubble pops.

Slight_Bet660

No, they primarily lend to MJ companies. If you pull up Chicago Atlantic’s website they discuss their various funds including LIEN, and if you pull up their SEC filings you can go through their loan portfolios. It’s a BDC/CEF however so liquidity is low (which is why there are no options). They trade at a discount to NAV because of the inherent risk baked into the sector (MJ companies do not have access to traditional banking, have to deal with unfair tax treatment, have an overhang that the feds could technically pull the plug on them at any moment, etc.). They also traded down along with the private credit fears even though they do not have the exposure to software companies that is a driver of those fears. If you go through their loan portfolio and the terms they extracted you probably won’t find anything else like it on the market. They also currently have very low debt leverage for a BDC. If there is anything that is a red flag it is that they filed for a large shelf offering several weeks ago. The CEO has already come out and said they are not issuing new shares under NAV, that they are focused on increasing leverage where it makes sense, and that it’s to give the company optionality to be ready to capitalize on rescheduling. Could just be typical Wall Street BS, but haven’t seen anything instance in which the CEO contradicted his statements from my research into it. FWIW, I am holding 5600 shares that I bought when it dipped to $9.04/share. I also made a post on the dividend subreddit to gather feedback, but didn’t see anything that stopped me from pulling the trigger.

Slight_Bet660

A better play in the sector is LIEN (Chicago Atlantic BDC). That is the company that loans to marijuana companies. Given all of the regulatory risk they have been able to be very selective in which companies they loan to and have been able to secure extremely lender-friendly terms. If rec weed gets rescheduled to schedule III and 280E gets killed, then the credit profiles of the companies that LIEN lends to improves overnight, the value of their existing book of loans shoots up, the stock price shoots up, and they probably get bought out by one of the large financial institutions who were previously prohibited from operating in the space.

realnorth67

Can fathom such a monster purchase, but i did have Dell stock a year ago. Solid hardware all the early computers at BDC were Dell long time ago

PaintInhaler69420

At this Point Buy BDC Shares and enjoy the Dividends, the Market is just moving freaky and with Mr T in the greatest Country in the World you are just Gambling.

iTedsta

No it isn’t? And there’s no need to “downplay risk” because the people buying the products understand and WANT said risk (you look at the high-yield bond market for instance at the increased concentration around BB/BB+, alongside a downtick in IG issuance - bond investors want that extra yield). CLO printing is at all time highs, the LL and PC market is frothy because people want exposure. Will the software piece underperform? Quite probably, lot of those loans are pretty suspect imo (Average net leverage of 8x and cash interest coverage of 1.3x across the SaaS-sector is borderline disgraceful) but private credit as a concept is here to stay. Caveat that the BDC/retail crowd probably don’t understand, but they never have and never will - they’re so absurdly unsophisticated that it beggars belief (they don’t even seem to have known about the 5% quarterly gate). Proof of my point being this post and 85% of the comments on it…

credit_master

I'm in my early 30's. I've been trying to buy the dip on BDC's. I was formally all in on muni bonds since 2022 and was waiting for BDC's like ARCC to have a discount instead of chasing it while it's high. It never came for 4 years as ARCC rose from $19 to $23. Before that I didn't touch stocks since it's too speculative. But the apollo situation, and what you say, I have to agree. So I should avoid BDC's despite the once in a lifetime temptation to "buy the dip". All those prior earnings were related to loan rate environments.

Accomplished_Floor18

That's the problem if you invest in a single BDC. It is very different if you invest in a basket of bdcs such as PBDC which is now owned by Franklin Templeton.

Civil-Rip1302

Did as you asked and put it in AI. This is the reply: That post is a classic "doomer" financial manifesto—the kind you find late at night on Reddit or X. It takes very real, legitimate economic anxieties and cranks them up to an apocalyptic 11, mixed with a healthy dose of cynicism and aggressive formatting. Let's break down what the user actually got right, where they are blowing things out of proportion, and what the real risks look like. # 1. What the Post Gets Right (The Real Risks) The author isn't entirely pulling this out of thin air. The private credit market *has* exploded, and regulators are genuinely keeping a close eye on it. * **The Scale of Private Credit:** It is true that private credit has grown massively to over $2 trillion. Because it happens outside traditional banks, it is often referred to as "shadow banking." * **The Maturity Wall:** A massive amount of corporate debt was taken out in the ultra-low interest rate environment of 2020–2022. Refinancing that debt at today's much higher rates is a massive hurdle for highly leveraged companies. * **Payment-in-Kind (PIK) & "Kicking the Can":** This is a very real trend. When a borrower struggles to pay interest, some lenders allow them to pay with *more debt* (PIK) instead of cash. Delayed-Draw Term Loans (DDTLs) are also being used in creative ways that mask underlying stress. * **Liquidity Mismatches:** Investing in illiquid, 7-year corporate loans while promising investors they can cash out quarterly is a fundamental structural flaw. We have already seen major funds (like Blackstone's BREIT in the real estate sector previously, and others in private credit) have to limit or "gate" withdrawals to prevent a run on the fund. # 2. Where the Post Gets It Wrong (The Over-Hyperbole) While the ingredients for a corporate debt headache are there, comparing this directly to a **"2008 systemic collapse worse than subprime"** fundamentally misunderstands how the 2008 crash happened. * **No "Systemic" Doom-Loop:** In 2008, toxic subprime mortgages were heavily held on the balance sheets of the world's largest commercial banks (Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Citigroup). When they failed, the global banking system froze. Private credit, by definition, is held by *private funds* (institutional investors, wealthy individuals, pension funds). If a private credit fund goes under, the investors lose money, but it doesn't cause a systemic run on the commercial banks that hold your checking account. * **Level 3 Assets Aren't a Con:** "Mark-to-model" sounds scary, but it’s standard practice for illiquid assets that don't trade on an open exchange every day. It doesn't mean analysts are just making up numbers blindly; these models are heavily audited by major accounting firms, even if they are lagging indicators. * **Diversification vs. Subprime:** The post compares Private Credit CLOs to 2008 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). However, subprime mortgages failed simultaneously because they were all tied to the exact same variable: US housing prices. Private credit is spread across software companies, healthcare, manufacturing, and infrastructure. They don't all fail for the same exact reason at the same exact time. * **The Federal Reserve Hyperbole:** The author claims the Fed "cancelled rate cuts" and is planning "rate hikes for the end of the year." While rate cuts have been delayed or scaled back due to sticky inflation, the Fed is not aggressively charting a course for major new rate hikes unless inflation completely spirals out of control. # 3. How Fucked is Retail? The author claims retail investors will "hold the bags." The truth is, everyday retail investors rarely have direct exposure to private credit because these funds usually require you to be an "accredited investor" (net worth over $1M). However, retail *does* have indirect exposure through: 1. **Pension Funds & Insurance Companies:** If you have a corporate pension or a life insurance policy, those institutions may have a small percentage of their capital allocated to private credit to chase higher yields. 2. **BDCs (Business Development Companies):** These are publicly traded vehicles that allow retail to buy into private debt. If the market turns, BDC stock prices will tank. # The Verdict: Dog Shit wrapped in Cat Shit? Not quite. It's more like **highly spiced corporate debt wrapped in high-yield risk**. We are likely looking at a **slow-burning corporate default cycle** rather than a sudden, explosive 2008-style collapse. Weak, unprofitable companies (especially tech and SaaS startups that relied on free money) will indeed go bankrupt, and some private credit funds will post terrible returns or freeze withdrawals. It will be painful for the private equity firms and the institutional investors who over-leveraged themselves, but it is highly unlikely to break the global financial system. Do you have money tied up in BDCs or private market funds that made you come across this post?

Intrepid-Ad-1253

I asked ChatGPT Pro to evaluate these statements and here is what I got: **Verdict: the risk is real; the thread is technically sloppy and deliberately alarmist.** **1–2: Partly true.** Private credit is roughly $2–2.5T depending on definitions; $4T by 2030 is a forecast, not fact. Many loans are Level 3/mark-to-model, but “unregulated and unreported” is false. The comparison with subprime is apples-to-oranges. **3–4: Directionally true, numbers inflated.** Maturities cluster in 2028–29 and software exposure is significant. But the claimed **$500B private-credit maturity in 2028 is unsupported**; S&P’s monitored universe shows about $49.5B. GPU-backed lending is not representative of the market. **5: Misleading.** On June 17, 2026, the Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75%. Its median projection implies roughly one hike by year-end—not a guaranteed hike or formal “cancellation” of cuts. **6–9: Mostly true, with definition games.** IMF research found nearly half of direct-lending borrowers had negative operating cash flow. Conventional payment defaults may be around 1.5–2%, while broader measures including restructurings and selective defaults run around 4.5–5.8%. PIK usage has risen, and Fitch says PIK/deferrals caused roughly 55–60% of recent default events. There is no single concealed “real default rate.” **10–11: Mechanism true; conspiracy claim unproven.** Payment DDTLs can function like synthetic PIK—interest appears paid while total debt grows. That can obscure stress. But claiming they were invented specifically to defraud banks or evade rules goes beyond the evidence. **12–16: Major conflation.** Private-credit CLOs exist and are opaque, but they are rated, tranched and monitored—not unknowable black boxes. Crucially, **CLO investors generally cannot redeem quarterly**. The redemption mismatch belongs to semiliquid BDCs and interval funds. The claim about the SEC knowingly protecting banks while sacrificing retail is unsupported. **17: Events broadly real; interpretation distorted.** Redemption caps and gates are appearing. But Blue Owl’s case involved an orderly wind-down and capital returns, not simply money disappearing forever. **Likely consequences:** more restructurings, PIK, NAV markdowns, BDC dividend cuts and withdrawal gates—especially in software-heavy vehicles. A 2008-style collapse is less likely because much of the capital is locked up and loans are often senior-secured. The more plausible systemic outcome is slower lending, losses at insurers/banks/pensions and a broader credit contraction—not an immediate subprime replay.

Nyczboy22

Points 11-17 are just flat out false and incorrect. I’m not sure why I spent 15 mins on my train ride laying it out on WSB, but I’m bored and OP is not that smart 11. DDTLs can’t be used for anything outside of add-on acquisitions or in limited situations CAPEX and is typically governed by an incurrence test (e.g., the borrower can only draw on a DDTL when the net leverage of the deal is below a certain leverage, use 6.0x as an example). If a borrower is already over levered from underwrite, it’s impossible to draw additional $s under the credit agreement for the DDTL. 12. BSL and Private Credit CLOs are required to be rated by one or several rating agencies at the underlying investment level and the CLO tranches. Rating agencies are obviously much more regulated and observed following GFC. Typically CLOs have a concentration limit for underperforming or what we’ll call ‘CCC’ and worse names, with the limit being 5-10% or less. 13. Portfolio companies are required to deliver monthly and quarterly financials to the private credit managers as a credit agreement covenant. Investment teams are required to report those financials to banks who are back levering the portfolio of investments. Banks typically also engage auditors to audit the borrowing bases of managers to ensure accurate reporting of portfolio company healthy. Furthermore, managers of scale have mostly outsourced valuations to valuation specialists like Houlihan Lokey, Lincoln, and VRC given cost of human capital. These valuation firms utilize the portfolio company delivered financials to value the positions monthly (if a BDC) and quarterly for private funds. See point #2 as well, which is inaccurate. 14. I just closed a private credit CLO late last year, none of the note buyers at AAA/AA were pensions or insurance companies. AAA was bought by banks and AA was bought by banks and one asset manager. 16. False, investors in CLOs can’t cash out quarterly… you might be referring to BDC or interval fund redemptions which is not related. CLO investors are only cashed out when the CLO reinvestment period ends and proceeds are used to pay down the note liabilities sequentially (e.g., AAA gets paid out first and the riskiest tranche last) 17. Again, think you might be referring to BDCs and Interval Funds. Though, agree that some managers are experiencing issues with redemptions but my belief is that financial advisors that have been pitching BDCs and interval funds to their clients as liquid products have (I) been selling a false narrative (ii) not actually educated on the product. W/r/t (ii), it’s clear in the offering documents that BDC managers have the ability to gate redemptions to preserve the funds value from fire sales.

Boring_Rub_5846

The entire BDC sector is being held up by garbage bonds and PIK toggle finance. It is in trouble. Luxury retail, consumer discretionary to follow. your backward looking numbers have nothing to offer.

Neat-Edge-3708

This is what Claude has to say This thesis is remarkably well-researched. Here’s a point-by-point breakdown of what checks out, what’s somewhat overstated, and what’s missing nuance: **What’s accurate or well-supported:** **Market size & growth** — the document claims $500B in 2020 growing to $2T+ in 2026. The U.S. private credit market expanded from $500B to roughly $1.3 trillion over the last five years [Think Realty](https://thinkrealty.com/article/rise-of-private-credit/), though Morgan Stanley puts global private credit at $3 trillion at the start of 2025 [Cayman Compass](https://www.caymancompass.com/2026/03/27/private-credit-and-risks-in-the-shadows/). The $2T+ figure is plausible depending on how you define the market; the FSB puts it at $1.5–2T. The core growth story is real. **Level 3 / mark-to-model valuation** — unlike publicly traded securities, these assets are typically marked using net asset value based on internal models or manager estimates rather than observable market prices, creating a disconnect between stated valuations and realizable prices under stressed conditions [Fair Observer](https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/private-credit-in-2026-between-silent-expansion-and-hidden-fragility/). Confirmed. **PIK usage doubling** — 11% of Q4 borrowers paid interest in-kind, with more than 58% of those featuring “bad PIK,” meaning borrowers opted to delay payments during the life of the loan rather than at origination [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/-bad-pik-is-climbing-again-as-private-lenders-scrutinize-books). The doubling claim is broadly corroborated. **Synthetic PIK is real and used exactly as described** — lenders are using synthetic PIK options to offer PIK terms to a borrower without breaching any cap imposed on the amount of PIK debt permitted, as technically the interest on the unitranche debt is being paid in cash [Proskauer Rose LLP](https://www.proskauer.com/alert/private-credit-explained-delayed-draw-term-loans). Direct lenders including Blue Owl Capital have pitched deals that include synthetic PIK, a feature that lets companies make interest payments with additional borrowing without having to count the debt as being serviced “in kind.” [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/private-credit-s-new-way-to-keep-payment-in-kind-under-the-radar) This is one of the more alarming and accurate points in the doc. **PIK predicts deterioration, not recovery** — academic research using BDC loan data shows PIK is primarily used for forbearance, concentrated among distressed firms, and predicts persistent deterioration rather than recovery — driven by PIK exercised after origination rather than at origination [SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5341145). This validates the thesis’s concern. **Withdrawal freezes happening** — Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund was hit with $6.5 billion in redemption requests, forcing executives to inject $400M of their own capital; BlackRock limited redemptions after withdrawal requests nearly doubled its 5% quarterly cap; Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater have also been forced to prorate redemptions [FinancialContent](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-16-the-shadow-banking-crack-up-private-credit-faces-its-moment-of-truth). This is confirmed and ongoing. **Liquidity mismatch** — the fundamental flaw being exposed is promising quarterly liquidity to retail investors while holding illiquid five-year loans [FinancialContent](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-16-the-shadow-banking-crack-up-private-credit-faces-its-moment-of-truth). Widely confirmed by regulators and analysts. **Where the thesis overstates or lacks nuance:** **The 2008 comparison** — the document implies this is comparable in scale to the subprime crisis. While Collateralized Debt Obligations in 2008 were leveraged 10x, leverage in private credit funds is closer to 1.25–1.3x [Cayman Compass](https://www.caymancompass.com/2026/03/27/private-credit-and-risks-in-the-shadows/). The systemic bank exposure is also much lower this time — the Federal Reserve estimates large U.S. banks’ loan commitments to private credit were $95 billion at end-2024, of which only $56 billion was utilized — relatively modest [Cayman Compass](https://www.caymancompass.com/2026/03/27/private-credit-and-risks-in-the-shadows/). **Default rate of 5–6%** — Fitch reported private credit defaults surged to a record 9.2% by late 2025 [FinancialContent](https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-16-the-shadow-banking-crack-up-private-credit-faces-its-moment-of-truth) — actually higher than the document claims, though some of that is measurement-dependent. **“Retail will hold the bag”** — Goldman Sachs estimates more than 90% of private credit investment is in institutional structures with longer lock-ups than retail funds [Cayman Compass](https://www.caymancompass.com/2026/03/27/private-credit-and-risks-in-the-shadows/). Retail exposure exists and is growing, but the primary bagholders right now are pension funds and institutional investors, not retail directly. **The SEC conspiracy framing** — there’s no sourced evidence regulators are deliberately protecting big banks at retail’s expense. What’s documented is that regulatory gaps exist and are being addressed slowly, which is a legitimate criticism but different from malicious intent. **Bottom line:** The core thesis — that private credit is under serious stress, PIK and synthetic PIK are masking the true default picture, liquidity mismatches are real, and CLO packaging reduces transparency — is **substantially accurate and corroborated by the FSB, academic research, Bloomberg, and observable market events**. The dramatic framing and 2008 comparisons are somewhat overblown given lower leverage and limited direct bank exposure, but the underlying risks are genuine and being actively flagged by serious institutions. This isn’t a fringe conspiracy; it’s a real stress point in the financial system.

Junior-Appointment93

CSWC it’s a decent BDC. That pays monthly dividends and trades around $25. Good way to teach him about DIvidends. Or if you want speculative Keel is a good one. Or another decent dividend that pays quarterly is Ford. It’s popular for new investors. Especially if they have c the capital for cash secured puts.

GiGiAGoGroove

Be careful investing in a BDC now because of private credit right now it can go pear shaped if the economy gets tough.

greytoc

From an economic perspective - BDCs were established in 1980 by US law to incentivize investments into small businesses which drive the US economy. The economics of BDC can be found related to the Small Business Investment Incentive Act or SBIIA. Lots of gory details if your friend is that interested in that stuff.

greytoc

FYI - OP is asking about a BDC - not a REIT.

greytoc

Are you asking about public companies that do this? They are called Business Development Companies. Or BDC's. They are structured as closed-end investment funds. The structure is defined by US law. And the tax structure is similar to REITS. A BDC is required to distribute 90% of their taxable income.

rhode_island_rob

I've been considering $BDC. Belden cabling. They hold a massive share of the network cabling market. I am a master electrician that works in a utility scale BESS site. Before that, industrial construction. Almost 15 years in the trade. Anytime anyone needs shielded network cabling we just use the term "Belden Cable", even if it's not made by them. I have no current position in $BDC. Considering an entry.

sealilymarron2

Don't forget the cables and wires. My husband works for a privately owned cable manufacturing company and they're seeing a boost due to the AI thing. Gemini pulls up equivalent publicly traded companies as BDC, CSL, and RFIL. Of those, it looks to me like RFIL is going up already this year.

wentzco

Well here is a possibility - "maybe" WeedMaps has a deal to be acquired by Vireo Growth. It was mentioned here at [https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1tngnjg/comment/oo64qcu/?context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1tngnjg/comment/oo64qcu/?context=3) by GeoLogic23 as the possible reason. As I had said at **"Being the big fish controlling most of the consumer platform, wholesale platform, e-commerce & fintech (retail, wholesale, embedded payments) ecosystem likely will happen at some point."** at [https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1t3d4g7/comment/ojxwthl/](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1t3d4g7/comment/ojxwthl/) As investors hopefully noticed that Vireo Growth had expanded out of the typical dispensary acquisitions with The Hawthorne Gardening Company, Bridgewell Agribusiness & the Eaze delivery platform (in addition to their dispensaries/cultivation). I think Vireo Growth wants to be that big fish and hopefully it will be rapid acquisitions of Nabis (wholesale platform), Weedmaps (consumer marketplace) & Dutchie and/or Jane Technologies (e-commerce infrastructure. So if you have been paying attention that **many of the Vireo Growth acquisitions had ties to Chicago Atlantic**. Did Weedmaps voluntarily delist from Nasdaq so they could be acquired by Vireo Growth? **Silver Spike Acquisition Corp. took Weedmaps public in 2021. Later, Silver Spike Investment Corp. rebranded to Chicago Atlantic BDC.** Seeing patterns develop?

wentzco

Well I found the Bridgewell Agribusiness connection to Chicago Atlantic. On April 10, 2026, Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. announced that director Patrick McCauley resigned from its board, effective immediately, to pursue other opportunities. Patrick McCauley is the Chief Executive Officer and Owner, Bridgewell Agribusiness LLC (1/2018-Present); President and Chief Executive Officer, Bridgewell Resources (2013-2017)

Middle_Brush_1311

Zero chances We will see a pause in cutting for the rest of the year, inflation will run hot till Iran opens the strait I am going into BDC’s, they do well in high inflation

CAGR_17pct_For_25Yrs

Don’t get discouraged by the $10M portfolio number. The majority of my portfolio is not involved in my option trades at all. Many of my holdings like all my high yield REITs, BDC’s and CEF’s either have poor option premiums, low liquidity, or simply don’t fit the way I use CCs and CSPs. The active option sleeve is much smaller. For example, the roughly 20 open option trades I currently have is the largest number I’ve ever had open at the same time, and the capital needed to support those trades is not even $500K. So the way I would think about it is not “I need a $10M portfolio.” It’s more about slowly building an option-capable part of the portfolio where the stocks have decent premiums, good liquidity, and are names you would actually be happy to own or trim anyway.

jhayesxvx

Isnt this exactly what some BDCs do as a business model? They take on debt through loans or issueing corporate bonds, then take the capital and do equity (stock) investments in businesses they think will return above their interest rate. Youre trading with the market on capital allocation, by taking that loan youre essentially saying you can allocate the capital more effectively than the interest rate has given to you for your credit risk. Business loans are a real thing, but are your stock market returns consistent and large enough to pay back both principle and interest? Maybe. For some BDCs they are. Buying the market without the kind of due diligence a full time equity/CFA analyst does at a BDC seems very risky.

hellojoe93

nah, real property, private equity stakes, start a BDC or a royalty trust, etc.

Various_Couple_764

Most dividend investors down't own sotcks in individual companes. Instead they use dividend ETFs. I have EMO 9% yield in my portfolio for oil and gas income. It doesn't invest in Exxon instead it invest in Master Limited partnerships. which operate oil gas pipelines and refineries. They are required by law to pay out most of there earnings as dividned so the yields higher than normal. MLPs are very good invesments. BDC are another group of companes required to pay dividneds. They loan money to businesses. I have PBDC 9%. They are great funds for dividend income that invest in stocks that are not included in growth index funds.

zbern

I've looked at BDC but it doesn't pop up on my screener. I'll have to go back and look to see why not especially if I can find answers as too why given what management says from the last few earnings. Thanks for heads up on it. Congrats on BRC today!

ptexpat

I have a small position in AZZ. DSGX / MANH should benefit more if / when money rotates out of chips and back into software / IGV. Likely will need some patience. SPXC earnings were good and IIRC they might have even raised their full year guide. I'd look into Belden (BDC). I am red on the name but intend holding through their next earnings before taking any action.

overlord355

MAIN got thrown in with the private credit worries and the assumption that rates were going to be cut. Is a high quality BDC and we have high inflation (due to an external factor) and a Hawkish chair, rate cuts are very unlikely, a hike is not unthinkable

Various_Couple_764

Keep in mind that there is a difference between private credit ad owning shares of a BDC. Private creidtfunds don't sell shares So you give them money they loan it out. So if you change your mind you need to wait for the fund to have the money available for you to get your money back. When you buy shares you are not giving your money to the BDC. Instead you are buying share from some that wants to sell. So if you change your mind you can immedienctly sell the stock to get your most of your money back immediently.

dvdmovie1

I've invested in a lot of things, never had an interest in a BDC. In terms of Apollo or Blackstone, I'd rather invest in the parents than the products.

Juidawg

Mania phase of the rally not even considered about yet. What we like in infrastructure and related hardware. Grabbed some Belden BDC yesterday (copper, comms, wiring).

Civil-Heat-9913

Sit on cash for a little and wait for private debt to crash. When it does, buy up BDC at cheap prices and turn DRIP on. I’m a debt collector. I don’t collect on business debt but some of my colleagues do. Bozo business owner sells future receivables to a company, fails to pay them back, you know the rest of the story. I will add these loans are guaranteed by a person as well, but that doesn’t usually help.

ShadowBard0962

The audacity of you assuming that I don’t understand what I’m buying, given you know nothing about me or my overall investment strategy(s)! These CC ETF’s are just 8 of my portfolios holdings of some 37 that includes BDC’c, CEF’s, MLP’s, REIT’s and dividend growth stock. I, like most here, have made my share of investment mistakes, but I am a well-seasoned investor at this point. And my investment strategy fits MY needs, not yours. Thank you for the comment.

Junior-Appointment93

Look into BDC’s and REITs. Some of still cheap. Look into placing cash secured puts. Create a screener for sub $10 stocks. Pick the ones with weekly options. The see if they are green for 2 of 3 things. Weekly monthly and 3 month charts. These are the ones you want for cash secured puts.

austinlm

Thanks for working on this for the community. I have a few methodological questions just to better understand the mechanics of your analysis First, how did you handle survivorship bias over the 17-year lookback? If the dataset only includes currently active tickers, omitting delisted yield traps might artificially shorten average recovery times, especially in the highest yield brackets. Second, did you control for broader market drift? The last 17 years heavily feature a secular bull market, so the 5 to 10 day recoveries might partly be natural upward drift rather than an isolated ex-date recovery. Third, is the BDC recovery lag an independent characteristic or a byproduct of their high yields? Since BDCs usually sit in the highest yield tier, I am curious if a BDC yielding 5 percent recovers at the same speed as a regular stock yielding 5 percent. Did you run a regression to isolate asset class from yield size? Finally, regarding the z-score insight, like my first point, did you control for survivorship bias? As well, a security trading 2.5 standard deviations below its mean alone may trigger a mean-reversion, independent of dividends; so did you compare mean reversion on ex-date versus non-ex-date days at that same extreme z-score?

_WhatchaDoin_

What does this mean exactly? What action should be done from this information? If you buy dividend stock, you are better off the lowest yield? Highest yield? (Your data show that highest is still better, even if it takes longer). Avoid BDC? 

Responsible-Key8163

This is really interesting, especially the consistency of slower recovery with higher yields. The BDC insight stands out too, that probably catches a lot of people expecting quick rebounds.

Junior-Appointment93

It’s your timing. But it’s also been this month. Unpredictable. I trade XSP credit spreads. But took the last few weeks off and just been buying ETF’s and a BDC. I’m only down a few cents on VUG and IDVO. But overall I’m up $7. And have not received a dividend payment yet.

Recent_Button_1

Really solid breakdown, you basically wrote the methodology section I should have included. The 3 day median vs 7.9 day average gap is the whole story and I undersold it. Built the explicit distribution into the tool literally today based on this thread: 1 day: 36.3% 2 days: 10.9% 3 days: 7.0% 4 to 5 days: 9.5% 6 to 10 days: 13.4% 11 to 20 days: 12.1% 21 to 30 days: 4.3% 30 plus days: 6.5% Massive spike at day 1 then a long flat tail. The bimodal shape you would expect if your buyer composition theory is right -- fast recovery crowd clears in a day, yield chasers take a week or two to exhaust. BDC double whammy point is exactly right. Credit risk already priced in and then the market hedges next quarter distribution risk on top. No wonder only 45% recover in 5 days. Z-score by earnings proximity is the actually useful version of that signal and I do not have it yet. Requires historical earnings dates going back 17 years which is a data license we are negotiating right now. Realistically 1 to 2 months away. You identified the most valuable thing we are not doing yet. Young account, big roadmap.

Efficient_Scheme_701

ANY BDC enjoyers?

Various_Couple_764

The big problem with Private credit and BDCs is that these terms are often used intercahangably but in fact they are two different things but are related. * BDCs are companes that loan money to companies. * Private credit also loans monty to companes. So yes they are similar. But they don't however get the money they loan from the same place. * BDC get their money from bank loans. * Private credit get ther money from individual investors. When you buy shares of stock of BDC you are not give the BDC you money. You are buying shares from a person that wants sell the share. You get your share of the profit from the loans and BDC make information on their loans public. And if you decide later you don't want the shares you can sell them and get most of your money back. Private credit doesn't offer shares of stock. If you want to invest in a private credit fund you have to give your money to the private credit fund. Then then loan the money. And over time they pay you dividends to pay back your money. So if you decide you don't want to be invested in a private credit fund you cannot gt your money back by selling shares. Simply because you don't have any shares. Because the private credit fund no longer has iyour money. So you have to waiter the private credit fund to have enough money to return your money. What has happened with private dfcrdit is that a bunch of rich people invested in them without reading the prospectus and fully understanding what they were investing into. When the economy started to falter under the pressure of tariffs and other things. They decided to get out. And then discovered that they couldn't get all their money back. And since they didn't own any publicly traded share of the private credit fund they couldn't sell shares on the public market to recover their funds. In short they they were stuck in the equivalent to a 1930 on the bank . were a number of people try to withdrawal there money at the same time and risk collapsing the private credit fund. There is no evidence of problems with these private credit funds or BDCs. But information about private credit fund loans is not always available. To add further confusion some BDCs do run private credit funds. But the effect of the confusion has caused many to sell BDC stock creating a big buying opportunity for this with money to invest.

ToonamiNights

I'm just curious what the BDC credit crash will look like. Banks are only leveraged like 2:1 now compared to the 40:1 2008 crash lending to BDCs instead of the CDO nightmare. But that'll probably be the legs that give out that support the foundation of this money passing around fiasco we have.

Various_Couple_764

If you own a stock today, you’re implicitly choosing *not* to sell it and put that money somewhere else.  This sounds like you are constantly looking for something with better, growth, yield or cost. Which can exhausting because each year there are new best investments Some years Reits are the best, other years it is MLPs, or BDC. OR it may be bonds, CLOs or an investment in a specific county. Yet even with all of that you will find that there are some investments that are consistently near the top. So many people choose the constant ones and invest in them and leave them alone to do their thing. It is a lot less work then constantly looking for something better.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: GAIN Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares and May 15 $17.5 Calls Catalyst: May 12th Earnings Print Boomer-to-Zoomer Translation: A boring boomer dividend BDC is about to print money because TikTokers bought an entire year's worth of squishy sensory toys (NeeDoh) in 8 weeks.

SnooTangerines5000

You forgot to mention: Schilling stake was roughly 10% of NAV on 12/31/25. NAV on that date was $591M, market cap today is $632M. NAV growth report expected at earnings May 12. This is a BDC with a $13 historical floor and 6% yield. Gladstone has a strong history of exiting equity positions and returning value to shareholders - I.e. buyout. Tldr: Not. Priced. In. Shares June 17.5c July 20c

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: $GAIN Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares Catalyst: A viral squishy stress toy (NeeDoh) selling out everywhere Vibe: Boomer 7% dividend BDC getting carried by a Gen Z TikTok toy craze

Nanas_700k

First initial funding round for my AI lawn care and gutter cleaning business seeking 1.5-2 billion dollar valuation as GPUasaS cloud compute provider. Seeking to expand to Big Booty Latina Data Center with exclusive agentic AI C-suite and option to expand into metaverse with uranium and silver backed CDO swaps. BDC need not apply as QE not QE has guaranteed 1.5 kWh of sexy time per Jerome. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

SnooTangerines5000

Good post—this sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole and I think there’s actually something here, but it’s a little more subtle than a straight meme play. The core connection checks out: Gladstone Investment Corporation → Schylling Inc. → NeeDoh. What stood out digging further is that **Schylling isn’t just a tiny side holding**. There’s an article here that breaks it down pretty well: [https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-viral-toy-hiding-inside-a-500-million-dividend-stock-200678116](https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-viral-toy-hiding-inside-a-500-million-dividend-stock-200678116) They’re talking about **\~$25M of value creation in a single quarter**, driven by actual operating performance. That’s meaningful inside a BDC like GAIN. This is before the viral trend. I think the part people might be missing isn’t just “NeeDoh is viral,” it’s what that *could* lead to. If Schylling is actually putting up real numbers, it starts to look like a new legitimate branded consumer asset, not just a toy company. That’s the kind of thing that can become an **acquisition target** (strategic or PE), especially if the growth sticks. And if that happens, GAIN has a history of exiting investments and returning gains to shareholders. So you’re not just relying on NAV drifting up—you could get realized value. Also worth noting they just announced a CEO succession plan: [https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/gladstone-investment-names-new-ceo-in-succession-plan-93CH-4575214](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/gladstone-investment-names-new-ceo-in-succession-plan-93CH-4575214) Not saying that’s a catalyst by itself, but leadership transitions sometimes line up with portfolio monetization. Near-term, the big date is earnings on **May 12**. That’s probably the first real chance for management to comment on how Schylling is performing and whether any of this is actually material. Might be a run-up, might not. But after reading up on this - I agree with OP, I don't think the catalyst has hit yet.

Garbage-Disposal-938

same question for ARCC and TCPC. why did BDC funds jump last couple days?

Various_Couple_764

When you buy a share of stock in a bank or BDC you are not giving the company money, Instead you buying the stock from someonethatwnats to sell the stock. Once you own the stock you can sell it at any time if you change your mind. Many private credit companes don't have stock. So If you want to invest in private credit you give your money to the private credit and then the money is loaned out. So if you cahange your mind and want to withdrawal the money, you can't because it has been loaned out. So you have to wait for the private credit fund to have enough cash or you have to wait for the loan to be payed off. The private credit problem has been caused by a few rick people investing their money without reading to prospectus or understanding what the invest is. They changed their mind when the market went down and tried to pull all of their money out. Even thought he propectus states that you may not be able get all of your money out. So the problem is not in BDC or banks which are well reguated lenders of money. And you can sell your shares at any time. Also the S&P500 is a growth index fund Banks, BDCs, Private credit are all a type of dividend funds. Dividend funds rarely have petter performance than growth index funds. But unlike grwoth index funds they provide cfonstant stream of cash flow unlike growth investments. Which for some poeople is more important than captial gains.

Various_Couple_764

The best solution to your problem is to invest for dividend. Is you want your monet todouble in 8 year and use the rule of 72 you the 72/ 8 -9% yield is what you need Now many would say 9% is not doable. But it is ARDCC has been paying 9 % for about 15 years BDC (business development companies have been paying 9% for a very long time. So in Addition to ARDC I have PBDC that invest in only BDC and it alohas a 9% yield Both are funds holding multiple asetsk EMO invests in MLP (companies that move oil and gas via pipelines. It yeild % BDCs have been around for 50years and MLP for about 40 years. These funds invest you money and than divi up the profits and send you monthly or quarterly check 100k in any of these 3 fund will generate 9K per year o income you can either reinvest odor use the money to cover wedding cost or college costs. Now you don't want to have all your income comming from one fund So 33K in ARDCC, 33K in PBDC, and 33% in EMO is a better combination. There are also good covered call fund with high yield and tax efifency and some growth. Some of the best ones are QQQI 13% yield, SPYI 11%, GPIQ 10%, GPIX 8% are also worth coonsidering.

Various_Couple_764

Index funds only buy share of publicly traded companes. Companes that have stock. Private pridit companes don't sell stock on the open market so they are not in growth index funds. Public credit companes, banks and BDC. These companes sell shares so your money stay liquid and you can sell your shares at any time. This is not the case with private credit.

Various_Couple_764

Interesting but theauthorstates it started in the 70s. No the first wave was in late 20 and early 30 when the margin loan business and markets collapsed. resulting in the great depression which ended after world war 2. about 15 years before the 70's The only thing else I will add is that there is a big difference between private credit and public credit. Orivate credit funds are not traded on the open market. So these funds have not shares you can purchase or sell at any time. So when you are investing in these companies you are giving your money to the fund and then they loan it out. So as soon as the money leaves you hand it is no longer liquid. Instead all you get is aobligation from the fund to revive the profits from the loans made. If you change your mind you cannot get all of your money back quickly. You have to submit a redemption request and then the fund takes money from its cash reserves to refund your money. But this cash reserve is smalll so you likely will have to wait months or a year together all of your money back. Public credit and banks and BDCs. So if you want to invest in public credit you simply buy shares of the the public credit company. Share you can sell at any time. You money many not actually go to the public credit company. So your money stay liquid. The BDC or banks take out loans to get cash and loan this money to customers. Than any profit they public credit company make is distributed to share holder as a dividend. So if you change your mind about an investment in puliccredit company you can sell your share at any time. without filling out a redemption request. As of right now most of the problems have been in the privet credit side of the business. there is as of right now no issueswiht public side of the businesses. but people are worried so share prices are dropping with no bankruptcies or obvise problems with he public funds which are still paying dividends. Will this hold? I don't know but but as of right now I see no reason to sell my public credit funds. And I don't own private credit or have ever contemplated investing in that sector of theeconomy. I am also avoiding real estate because that looks like a minefield to me.

Various_Couple_764

Actually there are other reasons why a yield may be higher that have with the risk of a dividend cut or a company loosing a lot of its share price. Most companes are by low not required to pay a dividend. so these companies often pay a dividend of 5% or less. but Business development companes are subject o rule that requir them to pay out 90% of there profit as a dividned. So most BDC pay 8 to 10% yields. Now yes some periodically have problems like any regular stock but the good ones pay year after year a very consistant yield. MLP (master limited Parnerships) are a group of companies that are also required to pay a higher yield. these companies operate pipeline to move oil and gas. and typically hav yield above 6%. So if you see a high yield it doesn't automatically mean something is fishy. Most people are use to seeing low yields of less than 5%. but occationally they look at stocks they are not invested in and occationally see a BDC paying 10% and just assume something is wrong with it and look away. There are a lot of funds paying 5 to 10% and a few paint up to 15%. But once you ge to 15% you have to be very carful and thoroughly evaluate the company.

AlarmedPelican

On April 8, Moody's shifted its outlook for the Business Development Company (BDC) sector to "negative." The agency cited mounting redemption pressures and the prevalence of PIK (Payment-in-Kind) interest, where interest is added to the principal, as major red flags for the sector's liquidity.

ReversalTheory

Is private credit a bigger risk than oil? We're seeing software still getting wrecked and software companies are the largest users of expensive PIK debt, which allows borrowers to skip cash interest payments on their debts until the loan matures, flattering lenders’ balance sheets and potentially masking distress until much later. BDC assets have quadrupled since 2020 and now we're starting to see the weakest earnings results for BDCs in years. The sharp drop in value is likely going to weigh on the $2 trillion private credit market and redemption pressure on unlisted funds is going to continue to rise. Could be setting up for a big liquidation event but prob not big enough for a market crash

Various_Couple_764

In general the higher the grwoth the lower the dividend. The best growth stocks have a dividend of zero to about 2%. And for dividends you can get high yields up to 10% but you likely get very little growth. Young companies generally have a lot of avialble paths to grwow the business. However eventaually as a company matures and competitors start compenting for business ther are fewer to no paths to grow the business. So the company pays invests a dividend. A dividend is simply a way to share the companies profits with invetors. Now many assume the maximum safe yield of a stock is about 5%. This would be true if all businesses followed the same rules. But BDC, MLPS and REits legally have to follow different rules than banks for rebgular companies Coc Cola. SO FOR BDC MLPS and REITS it is not unusual to see yields of 5 to 10%. Simply because the rules they have to follow are different. For example I have ARDC 9% yeild, PBDC 9% and EMO 9% So if it possible for dividend investors to get higher yield with minimal extra risk. And some dividned bund are taxed differently than others so some are not tax efficient while other may be very tax efficient.

S-Club-Party

What shitty bets? I’m referring to capping redemptions at 5%, which is normal at inception for BDC funds and all investors agree to it before they put their money in.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

BDC stocks already exist inside of index funds in 401ks, such as SP500. And yes, they do suck as individual stocks. 

Thuradzon

What’s the deal with BDC right now. Blue Owl looks like it’s nearing bankruptcy. Not sure about Main and Arcc

Song-Potential

It’s ironic you mentioned KKR’s flagship BDC. just last week, Moody’s actually downgraded it to junk status (Ba1). Because their non accrual rate hit 5.5%, which is way higher than their peers. Their stock is currently trading at a 50% discount to its book value. If they were truly 'well-diversified' and safe, the market wouldn't be pricing them like a house on fire.

smahd55

None of what you said is true. Most provate credit funds are well diversified. This industry emerged because banks had to hit strict ratios making them derisk their balance sheets. Asset backed finance within these portfolios are a subclass, of which tends to outperform. See KKR’s BDC private credit fund.

Art-of-Laura

I am, running BDC companies to generate income - I'm a late starter - It is kicking ass though.

Sus198

You are not replying to a novice individual. I've worked for a BDC for 30 years my friend. I still have contacts. And with what I see, I am worried and never been that worried since 2008. This is different. There is no safe haven this time. The rise in Japanese yields is the last straw that will break the camel's back. It will be a wrecking event that will set us back heavily and that will eventually lead to the start of America's decline. I wish I am wrong, and I hope I was optimistic as you are. Unfortunately, no much can be done at this stage. And no, this is not conspiracy. It's reality. Good luck.

Relative-Snow8735

I can't recall which podcast I heard this on, but the guest made two points regarding private credit that resonated with me. First, he claimed that default/delinquency rates were lower than their higher rated public credit counterparts. The issue with that, is that with private credit presumably being the higher risk basket one would expect the opposite. So he seems to think maybe they are using PIK or other methods to delay/extend the loans and make the numbers look better. The second point he made, was that when you liquidate holdings to cover these redemptions, there is going to be a bias towards selling off the higher quality assets because you can get par value for those, whereas if you try and offload the lower quality assets, you may be forced to write those down and recognize losses. Overtime, that is going to leave the fund holding lower and lower quality loans. One could see a scenario where redemptions requests remain high while at the same time the economy starts trending downward causing more issues in the portfolio. With redemption limits set to 5% per quarter, it could be a few years before you can get your money out, and you won't really know how bad the underlying portfolio is until they are forced to start off loading the underperforming portion of the portfolio. No idea how accurate or likely the above scenario is. And it feels like the broader risk to private credit is the overall economic picture. If that deteriorates rapidly, then a lot of other stuff is going to go down to. So being down 25% on a BDC might be preferable to being down 60% on an AI stock. But I would definitely consider the risks. Also, if you are buying public BDC tickers you don't have the same redemption risk that a direct investor would, so it is not quite apples-to-apples.

thepatriot74

Eh, no. Institutions should NOT hold that risk. If some yield chasers plonk their wealth into a BDC, that's their choice and they should be bailed out by "institutions", i.e. taxpayers.

SECdeezTrades

Buy OWL is probably easiest way. BDC with high leverage in software company loans. also stopped investors from cashing out ala Bernie Madoff so valuation is dropping ... a bit. Has a higher Sharpe value then Bernie ever claimed possible, so good luck 🤞

hof10

False, not all BDCs are evergreen funds. Look at Blue Owl. OBDC is their publicly traded BDC. OBDC is their non-traded BDC that reached its AUM target and is closed in the process of seeking a liquidity event. OCIC is their flagship evergreen BDC fund. In the context of what’s going on in this space, most of the publicly traded BDCs have been hit by the slew of bad news and are trading at heavy discounts to their NAV. The non-traded non-evergreen BDCs that have been closed to new investments and seeking a liquidity event are in the most trouble, since Managers won’t be able to merge the fund into a already publicly traded counterpart without their investors taking a NAV haircut (see blue owl OBDC II). Investors will have to sit and wait for the portfolio to be sold near par for their return of principal and that could take years. The evergreen BDC space is an in interesting spot right now since it really is the first time we’re seeing quarterly redemption’s being oversubscribed across the board pretty much. What happens to these fund’s enter net outflow phase from consecutive quarters for the foreseeable future? I mean, some of the managers who honored the oversubscribed redemptions can’t keep doing so and will have to gate them to the 5% that was set. Do they shut down redemptions all together if it means protecting the NAV of the fund? If you look at the prospectus of these products it is something they can do. And that’s when the panic will hit.

mspe1960

You post this like its a shocking outrage that they cannot get their cash immediately. That is the deal with private equity, and I guarantee they all signed on teh line with that being disclosed. You get a higher return, but it is not liquid. There are similar businesses called BDC's that do the same thing, and you are liquid, but not at the value you invested - at whatever the market will pay in the moment.

curio_123

Yes, BDC are evergreen funds. Have you seen their AUMs though? The big ones are shrinking, and some have to sell off loans at par to raise cash for redemptions. But don’t worry, they’re selling their worst performing loans and keeping the best ones in the fund for loyal LPs (I’m being sarcastic). Blackstone employees are also contributing cash to their largest PC fund to meet redemptions - to show confidence. Lemme tell you a little dirty secret - they’re not subscribing to fund units at NAV to rank pari passu with LPs. They’re lending to the funds (like the banks). Why? Cos lenders get first lien on the entire loan portfolio. So when the sh*t hits the ceiling fan, they’re the last to take losses and they will still get their 6-8% interest.

Various_Couple_764

>What about infrastructure software? Waste management? Insurance services that collect fees regardless of market direction? >I keep coming back to businesses that are essentially toll booths - they collect a cut of transactions that happen There are specifically companes that are required by law to pay out most other income as dividends. MLPs companies move oil and gas through pipelines and BDC that loan money to companies. As result of the laws that they must follow they pay higher yields than many other companies. For BDCs I have a ETF PBDC 9% yield and for MLPs I have EMO 9% yield. And there are companies that deal with infrastructure I have 2 such funds I like UTF 7% and UTG 6.4% yield. And we all have to deal with home loans business with buisness loans. These loans are often sold as loan obligations. so when the loan if payment is made most of the money goes to the people that own the loan obligations. I have two C collateral Loan obligation funds JAAA 5.5% and CLOZ 8%. I also have a general credit fund ARDC 9%. All of these funds are consistant dividend payers.

dqdg

AI: * Secondary discounts widening (<85%) * BDC NAVs dropping * BX / KKR / APO selling off hard * Real estate marks catching down

limitbreakse

We are on the same page on this. People should not investing in opaque, intransparent funds - sold by people who earn comissions. It’s completely insane, and also full of useless middle man fees. If you’re a large institutional investor, you get the data. The rest just speculate. BDC structures sold by middle men at fees too good to be true are the problem. Not the loans.

Beta_Nerdy

Business Development Corporations have done poorly in the last few years in comparison to the S&P 500. [7 Best BDC Stocks and ETFs to Buy for Income | Investing | U.S. News](https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-bdc-stocks-and-etfs-to-buy-for-income)

Lazy-Gene-7284

Agree that would be better but still bad. Check out just about any BDC right now most are trading well below their asset values for similar reasons ( debt) as MSTR.

Timstertimster

99% of people don't even understand how BDC and CLO actually work. many times, there is a ton of leverage involved and therefore a non performing asset can cause a 90% drop in its book value. if you don't know what that sentence meant, you owe it to yourself to get smart or don't buy these stocks. even a 40% discount to NAV might be meaningless. unless you have the visibility to actually evaluate performance risk on these loans, you are gambling. recent illustrative case in point. Blackstone last quarter marked one of its assets at 100% book value. three months later, they marked it to 0. let that sink in. within 3 months, your BDC or CLO can go from 100% to 0%. do you realize how insane that is?! the second thing is redemption and liquidity. there is a reason why these funds aren't liquid. the leverage causes substantial volatility, and if redemption spikes, it's like a run on the bank. your fund can blow up in a single day because it doesn't have cash to pay out redemption requests. they sell assets in the next quarter - at a steep discount - to make up cash to pay redemptions. this reduces NAV... which reduces the share price, which causes more redemptions... a doom cycle that can totally go to zero in a hurry. nobody ever believes things can now up, until they just, well... blow up.

PrivateMarkets

The media is honestly a bunch of clowns. Until late October - Private credit FOMO was their M.O. and then they flipped overnight to private credit is a pariah. Blue Owl should’ve just listed (not merged) their BDC. Traded BDCs always trade at a discount because the structure is essentially obsolete and there are few natural buyers.

Valuable-Matter-5605

If Blue Owl public BDC wasn’t trading at a 20% discount to NAV at the time they announced the private fund merger, then investors/advisors don’t raise hell about people getting a paper loss. The real question is why was it trading at such a discount? Credit concerns related to garbage tech startups. Past performance is not indicative of future results! Credit quality concerns and Bloomberg/WSJ fueling fear via headlines over “locked up money” make people question everything. Please don’t respond back to me with default rate scenarios. I’m aware. I also very much agree with your sentiment. The problem is the wind is blowing a certain direction and it’s picking up momentum. Expecting investors to act rationally is foolish.

OneTwoThreePooAndPee

They're the most leveraged to the private credit -> neocloud pipeline that's cracking. CRWV has $14B in debt, has never been profitable, and depends on circular Nvidia vendor financing to keep the lights on. APLD just issued $2.15B in new secured notes to build capacity while Nvidia simultaneously exited their equity. That's your canary. HIVE is a subscale miner pivot play getting squeezed from both sides: crypto revenue dying and CoreWeave locking up preferential GPU access. The connective tissue is Gulf sovereign wealth money. The SWFs that were supposed to fund the next wave of AI infrastructure buildout are now redirecting capital to missile defense and invoking force majeure clauses on existing commitments. That demand was baked into every forward revenue projection these companies used to justify their debt loads. Pull that capital out and the utilization/rental rate assumptions collapse, which is what makes the debt unserviceable. Blue Owl is the first domino. $1.4B forced liquidation, redemption gates shut, securities investigation opened. Their BDC book is full of exactly these kinds of neocloud loans. When the collateral (GPU inventory depreciating at fire-sale rental rates) can't cover the lending, the credit facilities get pulled and these names hit the wall.

BigJordi10

It’s a non-traded BDC, with a quarterly redemptions capped at 5%. Of course this would happen, private credit is a long term investment. They are packaged and sold to retail investors. This is when asset managers are supposed to shine, they need to sell assets. Secondary market is going to be hot, this and blue owl show that investors want out of the asset class. They fear the Iran conflicts impact on technology. Secondary focused draw down funds are going to love this, if there is a crash then good credit selection will pay out. If there isn’t a systematic crash then they will have gotten so many assets on a discount .

Tuatimenow

They hit the gating limit for their private BDC product. Essentially, if they hit this limit (usually 5% of total fund NAV but sometimes slightly higher) they will pro rate the requests received to ensure all those who requested receive a partial amount of their withdrawal while remaining under the gating % limit for the fund. All of this is clearly stated in the fund’s prospectus and quarterly redemption documents

Tuatimenow

They hit the gating limit for their private BDC product. Essentially, if they hit this limit (usually 5% of total fund NAV but sometimes slightly higher) they will pro rate the requests received to ensure all those who requested receive a partial amount of their withdrawal while remaining under the gating % limit for the fund. All of this is clearly stated in the fund’s prospectus and quarterly redemption documents

mdheavyd

not a bad reason to enter ngl, cluster buys like that especially from a co-founder are hard to ignore.. just maybe skim what a BDC actually is before averaging down lol

Nota-downer

TSLX is a BDC for high income dividend plays that pay over 10% divvies. All of the BDCs like OBDC, ARCC and MAIN are down due to the current low rate environment and to certain extent, too much exposure to software and tech lending. Imho, it’s all overblown and not all BDCs are not created equal but they sold off the same in this panicky market. 

Lower_Following3325

Now is a really good time to buy BDC’s ARCC is trading 8% discount to nav, I am loading up

Longjumping_Drop9450

I piled into PE/BDC bonds that are 5-6.5% and not affected by any FUD so far.

zonk84

Amen. Private Equity is currently bleeding out and has been all year. Hell, I'm not pulling the fire alarm (quite) yet, but I have a niche spot in my portfolio of BDC investments (Ares Cap, etc) that I never expected (as designed!) much growth out of, but liked the recurring revenue.... We've got some serious (serious serious) chop in front of us. I don't lurch, but I'm accelerating towards things like REITs in place of pure lenders as income generators.

Lower_Following3325

AI is actually affecting their software side of business Now is a good time to buy BDC’s- ARCC and BXLS are down 20% with ARCC trading under nav- just free money from the software slaughter

WealthHuman9754

You should buy all the blue owl and the other BDC’s now while they’re in a dip. Load up on them.

Ok-Efficiency72

Retail folks don’t understand private BDCs are illiquid investments and the underlying asset is a pool of non-traded loans… I’ll bet they have sign 10 times acknowledging this illiquidity to even invest in a non-listed BDC

Various_Couple_764

don't restriction search to funds with the lowest expense ratio possible. You only need to exam the expense of the fund when you are looking at 2 or more nearly ideentical funds. So by restricting the search to the lowest expenses you got a list of mainly growth fund. Growth funds are very good. Since they only follow an index they are so simple computers can do most of the day to day operations of the fund. Leading to low extremely low expenses. some specialty funds Lime MLPS and BDC dividned funds will probably be excluded. MLPs funds have to deal with K1 tax forms which tax processing fees to the expenses. BDC are subject o a flawed SEC rule that requires them the add associated expense to the funds expense. The funds never pay this expense which is about 13%, PBDC has a yield of 9% a real expense of o.7 and BIZD 11%yield has real expense of 0.4. Yet PBDC has the higherI total return. It is not ideal to have a protfolio of just grwoth. Retirement account have deposit limits. which will limit the size of your portfolio by the time you retire. Having some high dividned funds in there will add cash flow into your account beyond what you get with just growth funds or gobvernment bond funds. I have PBDC, EMO both 9% yields in and QQQI in my portfolio for this very reason. The high dividend yield from these funds early exceed the $7500 deposit limit of my roth. The higher cash flow into the account allows the portfolio to grow faster.

KaTz1_

why BDC stock down?

Historical_Air_8997

I got paywalled from that specific article, but I think it’s missing some key points. Like why are investors pulling out at a slightly higher rate, what is the normal rate from the last 5 years? (Like 5% of shareholders withdrawing may be a ton or maybe it’s normal and up from like 4.75%), and where/what are they doing with the funds? I work on a bunch of different PC and alt investment funds, what I’ve noticed from my personal experience (these are like $500m-2.5b funds) is investors are pulling out of the more speculative and poor performing funds and putting it into better performing and more income driven funds. So for example we scrubbed the launch of 3 crypto funds because investors lacked interest and the pilot phase did poorly, but it’s not like those investors stopped investing most of them just went to a BDC fund and a bit went to a fixed income fund. We’re still expecting about a 30% increase in subscriptions for the year, which is on par with last year, but we are launching less new funds than we did since investors seem more interested in older funds with past performance.

sweejaa

Northstar Clean Technologies (TSXV: ROOF | OTCQB: ROOOF) is a Canadian clean-technology company that reprocesses waste asphalt shingles into recovered materials, with the major value driver being recovered asphalt. The problem they’re solving is large and persistent: Northstar states that about 16.5 million tons of asphalt shingles are landfilled annually across Canada and the U.S., creating both environmental pressure and rising disposal costs. Asphalt itself is a mature, high-demand commodity used in road construction and maintenance, meaning Northstar is supplying recycled input into an existing, essential market rather than trying to create new demand. Northstar’s first commercial plant, Empower Calgary, is built and operating. The company has secured three sources of feedstock into Calgary: (1) IKO Industries under a five-year manufacturing-waste shingle supply agreement, (2) Ecco Recycling & Energy under a three-year agreement tied to its construction-and-demolition landfill, and (3) the City of Calgary under a five-year agreement beginning in 2026 covering shingles collected at the City’s Spy Hill, East Calgary, and Shepard waste management facilities. This diversified feedstock base matters because recycling infrastructure only works if inbound material supply is reliable and long-term. On the sales side, Northstar has secured a guaranteed buyer for its primary output. The Calgary facility operates under a five-year take-or-pay offtake agreement with McAsphalt Industries, a subsidiary of global infrastructure group Colas, for 100% of the liquid asphalt produced at the facility. A take-or-pay structure is important because it significantly reduces demand risk during ramp-up by ensuring that production volumes have a committed buyer regardless of short-term market conditions. The broader market opportunity is supported by tipping-fee economics as well as product demand. Landfilling asphalt shingles is costly and becoming more restrictive over time. Northstar highlights tipping-fee benchmarks such as approximately $113 per tonne in Calgary and approximately $150 per tonne in Vancouver, illustrating why municipalities and waste operators have economic incentives to divert shingles away from landfills. These fees form part of the economic backdrop that supports Northstar’s model alongside recovered-asphalt sales. Beyond Calgary, Northstar is actively advancing additional sites. In Hamilton, Ontario, the company has signed a Letter of Intent with the Hamilton-Oshawa Port Authority (HOPA) for a long-term lease and is progressing permitting and commercial discussions for a second facility. Northstar has also signed a feedstock LOI with YORK1 to support shingle supply for the Hamilton site, positioning Hamilton as the next Canadian expansion following Calgary. In the United States, Northstar’s expansion strategy is closely tied to TAMKO. TAMKO is a large, privately held U.S. manufacturer of asphalt shingles and roofing materials, meaning it operates directly inside the same supply chain Northstar targets. Northstar’s first planned U.S. facility is being developed to supply a TAMKO manufacturing plant in Frederick, Maryland, anchoring site selection, logistics, and demand around an existing industrial footprint rather than a speculative greenfield location. Northstar has also indicated plans for three additional U.S. facilities built around similar industrial partnerships. From a funding perspective, Northstar has already demonstrated access to institutional project financing. The Calgary facility was supported by a senior secured loan from Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), and the company has received a non-binding Letter of Intent from Export Development Canada (EDC) indicating potential support of up to approximately C$12.5 million for its first U.S. facility, with the possibility of additional support for further U.S. sites, subject to standard conditions. While the EDC LOI is not final, it signals that Northstar’s technology and project structure have progressed to a stage where government-backed lenders are willing to engage on future facilities, rather than the company relying solely on equity markets. Northstar has also referenced Vancouver as another future opportunity based on high tipping-fee economics and landfill-diversion pressures, reinforcing that the Calgary facility is intended to act as a template rather than a one-off project. While timelines vary by site, the company is already engaged in real preparatory work, leases, permitting steps, feedstock discussions, and partner alignment , rather than merely presenting conceptual expansion ideas. From an investment perspective, the central debate is timing and execution, not market existence. The demand for asphalt is well-established, landfill disposal costs are rising, the Calgary facility is operating with three feedstock suppliers and a guaranteed buyer, and additional sites in Canada and the U.S. are actively being developed with identified funding pathways. The remaining challenge is translating this operational progress into consistent production, revenue, and financial results in reported quarters, a transition that represents the company’s key inflection point over the next several months. Not financial advice, do your own research!

Various_Couple_764

In general as the dividend of a fund increase the growth decreases. Dividend fund in general continue to pay even whine the market price drops. So by switching your investments a bit more into dividend you are erectly switching for fixed income instead of growth and reducing your risk. Also the S&P500 index has a long term average growth rate of about 10%. There are funds and stocks that do have dividends close to 10%. So in your roth you could add commp funds that invest in companes that are not a big part of the S&P500. For example ARCC is a BDC there are no BDCs in the S&P500. ARCC has a yield of 9% which is common for BDC and since the companes founding the stock has performed a bit better than the index. When the growth index has a down year ARCC keeps paying its dividend and pulls a bit ahead. The are a number of f=good BDC so I invested in PBDC and the other is BIZD. In my roth Ihave funds like QQQI 13% yield,EIC 11%, ARDC9%, PBDC 9%, EMO 9% CLOZ 8%. So if the index is down I can use the dividend to invest in VOO or any other growth index you have. And in years when growth does very well you could sell some of the growth and lock that money into high dividends funds with have a comparable return and reduce your risk of over concentatration in the magnificent 7. For 401Ks you are limited on your fund choices so for dividend you may be limited to bond funds so you may be forced to use lower dividend yields. One other advantage having dividned funds in Roth or retirment fund is that if you become unemployed you will still have money flowing into the fund. With now I cannot depoist into my roth because my income is too high but the dividend funds are depositing 5K a month of income into my roth.

applegate11

No AI in this BDC. Truly zero.

jr611

17% redemptions in a quarter is brutal for a BDC, especially one that went heavy into datacenter loans during the AI hype. Private credit funds are notoriously illiquid so when everyone's trying to get out at once it usually means the underlying assets are way worse than what's being marked on the books.