BIV
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares
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Thoughts on Oaktree's OCSL for Bond Diversification
What happens to bond *funds* when the fed raises interest rates?
Does it make sense to buy a bond fund like BIV when interest rates are so low?
Vanguard ETF's dont appear to perform as well as the internet makes it seem
Mentions
The shift from the Intermediate-Term Bond Fund (BIV) to a Short-Term Bond Fund (BSV or VGSH) is advised because your primary goal for the bond sleeve is capital stability acting as "dry powder" ready to be deployed into stocks during a correction. During periods of rising interest rates or general market volatility (like the 2022 fixed-income correction), intermediate-term funds with a higher duration (like BIV) experience greater price declines than short-term funds, thereby reducing the stable value of your reserve capital. A short-term fund, while offering a slightly lower yield, drastically minimizes interest rate risk due to its low duration, making it a more reliable and less volatile source for your tactical rebalancing and a better fit for your goal of maintaining optionality/liquidity for a down payment in the coming years, despite the tax inefficiency shared by both nominal bond types in a taxable account.
not a lot of O or V from ROY G BIV, and for that reason, I'm out. calls it is
Stick it in $VBIL and then start your careful consideration. If you want it available at any time for a different investment, keep it in $VBIL. If you have 5 years before you will likely use the money, consider a mix of stocks and bonds, like 75% $VBIL + 25% $VT. If rates come crashing down, you will be better off with intermediate duration bonds ($BIV). If inflation remains sticky and difficult, then you'll be better off with $VBIL due to their short duration. If you have over 15 years or more before needing the money, just go 100% $VT.
No broker needed, can buy them at Vanguard or Fidelity in the Treasury auction each month. Most folks just buy the ETF BND or BIV and have them send the dividends.
The old fundamentals were when money was tied to something physical — like gold. The new fundamentals were when value was tied to human effort and productivity. But in a world of AI and infinite digital replication, we’re drifting from both. The only “fundamental” left might be Belief in Value (BIV) — what we collectively agree matters. Fartcoin might be absurd, but it’s just another flavor of BIV. So was gold. So is fiat. So are shares in a company with no profit but endless hype. We’re not post-fundamental. We’re just living in the age of consensus hallucination.
I hadn't even heard of VBIL until you mentioned it. Looks good. A fairly recent addition to their lineup I think. I use VCSH for cash equiv and then tier up to VCIT, BIV, etc. All more volatile than VBIL or SGOV. Unf, if rates remain high, they'll continue to underperform.
I hadn't even heard of VBIL until you mentioned it. Looks good. A fairly recent addition to their lineup I think. I use VCSH for cash equiv and then tier up to VCIT, BIV, etc. All more volatile than VBIL or SGOV. Unf, if rates remain high, they'll continue to underperform.
High yield bonds are risk without reward; in other words uncompensated risk. Just buy an ETF such as BND or BIV, and no need for junk bonds.
Your issue with options on these funds is going to be low volume. And in the case of BIV, about 56% of its holdings are US gov bonds so you're still exposed to them.
What's your yield with this strategy? The best I've managed to come up with is 60% in SCHD and 40% BIV for an income focused portfolio. This will yield approximately 4% in dividends a year, and you have full upside potential. You can mess around with BIV and replace it with senior loan etfs, REITs like the O Company to further increase your yield, but covered calls are the worst yield strategy in my opinion.
Start divesting from stocks and start putting some into bonds. At his age I'd have 30% in bonds at the minimum. Try BND, or BIV. Personally prefer BIV.
Buy TIPS, I recommend VTIP from Vanguard. If you're intent on using active funds I would not recommend JEPI and would instead go with PIMIX or Vanguard's multisector bond fund which is similar. You can do 25% VTIP, 25% BIV (Intermediate Term Corp/Government Bonds), 25% PIMIX, 25% VGSH. With covered call etfs you're getting all the volatility and a limited upside, they do not make sense for anyone honestly.
No the entirity of the EU charges VAT. Typically something like 3-6% on essentials such as food and 19-21% on non essential goods. Luxury goods like cars sometimes also have added taxes such as BPM (NL), BIV (BE), with Denmark being the most insane one: A factory new Fiat 500 is taxed+VAT 69.8% A factory new Mazda MX-5 is taxed+VAT 127% A factory new Porsche Panamera is taxed+VAT 178%
Why are you in JEPI, XYLD, BIV, and O in the first place?
Marjority of the momentun during interest hike were from internet commerce tech stocks. Had you held Amzn, Google, Meta, Tsla, and Nvda you would have shinned. The internediate bond like BIV one should reduce its position by selling at a loss in a day like now. But not with one click. I suspect it may come back up. As putting 50% in CD I will put some into material or consumer staple etfs.
[Try USMV or DBMF instead](https://testfol.io/?d=eJzNj1FLw0AMx79Lnu%2BhCnNwjzL2ogVBJoqMkvXS7vR2t%2BZih5R%2BdzMqWARfZXlK%2BIV%2FfhmgDWmH4QEZDxnsAFmQpXIoBBbAAEU3mybaYwB7VWgZQPdW%2BdgEFJ8i2AZDJgM15n0T0gls8TNUDVOnOS%2BEHD41jVMIPrbVyUd33r0pRgPHxNKk4JPqvA4Q8fB928eesqx8751KKRX%2B0FNM6o%2BxpvWvdPH1O%2FGUMvVKpes6ZUfimqKAvV6MZoZ3oq%2FN8HIxbg04xlY%2FOW%2F%2Br85deV8%2BX5DP6rZcX5LP5rF8%2BltnO34BI0v1Aw%3D%3D)
So you inherited it, what is the date that the purchaser acquired the shares? What this sounds like to me is that they bought it sometime like 2020 and BIV has dropped since then due to rate hikes in 2022. This would mean they bought it with ~$11500 and it has since lost that much value. That would mean that in any case you have 10k worth of bonds, but a few years ago they were worth more, thus the unrealized loss.
Inherited an ira with $10k BIV (intermediate bond fund etf) that was transferred to my name. Today it's showing unrealized gains/loss of $1500 and my account value has gone down by $1500, but BIV is still worth 10k. What's going on here?
Inherited an ira with BIV (intermediate bond fund etf). 10k worth of stock that was transferred to my name. Today it's showing unrealized gains/loss of $1500 and my account value has gone down by $1500, but BIV is still worth 10k. What's going on here?
I would start adding a intermediate bond fund like VGIT or BIV later down the road. Long duration bonds have weak coupon risk premium and make little sense when you might not live until they reach maturity.
Looking at CDs vs Bitcoin and not any risk categories in between is wild to me. Swinging for the fences and timing the market is more stressful than most find it worth. If you don’t want to just go broad stock market risk like the S&P500 and can use them, intermediate term bond etfs are fairly attractive right now given the interest rate cycle and expectations . BIV or similar. These are generally safer and not correlated to the stock market. Intermediate term balances duration risk and is fairly safe in the current interest rate environment. If interest rates cut, which all signs point to, you would do better than CDs/HYSA/money markets.
VT and Chill. Have three years of salary in a intermediate bond fund like BIV by the time you retire. Turn off reddit forever.
Black IV calls crashes - watch Juice on ViX - look at their mid term BIV skew and you’ll see
Congrats to your parents on living the life they want. Not everyone can appreciate the desire to work well past the normal retirement age on a job you love. Part-time is not a bad option. A little more free time and still have a hand in the job one loves so much. Win/Win In regards to the proposed 5M portfolio, I see a number of issues where things can be improved. First of all investing in international stocks is really not diversifying. It's making the Portfolio underperform over time. [The track record of International stocks compared to USA stocks is poor.](https://swingtrader.trading/2023/09/18/international-stocks-track-record-is-not-good/) Also the Bond allotment seems excessive. The choice of VTI for the diversified USA ETF is great and having a small cap ETF to go with it is smart too. I would propose: VTI - 70% IJR - 10% (small cap blend) BSV - 10% BIV - 10%
First, your portfolio. You’re getting comments like “Why BSV/BIV?” and “Why not almost all VTI?” Not every portfolio has to look exactly the same, and you’re also old enough to remember several instances when a huge stock position would have been devastating. You have a diversified, balanced portfolio made up of low cost index funds. That is better than 90% of people out there. Second, your financial plan. You really need to retire and enjoy the fruits of your labor. I get that it is hard to give up a steady salary and the identity that comes from work, but you don’t need either. The one thing you’re not accumulating is time. Spend it with your wife and family, do the things you love, and understand that you’re still going to have a lot left in the bank when you kick the bucket.
You can easily retire, you probably like your work. But why BSV / BIV? VOO would’ve outperformed all of them.
Why Intermediate-Term Bonds are crashing after hours today Feb. 7, 2024? BIV is crashing almost 5% after hours, but broad market BND shows no signs of volatility.
Hi all - quick question on a proper way to track my personal performance with my investments. Some context beforehand: 1. I’m 32M, $130k a year salary. 2. I have a 401k and contribute 100% of company match. 3. I have financial advisors - they have me in a Roth, IRA, and a couple life insurance products. 4. I have an emergency fund in a HYSA. Okay so that being said, I’m blessed enough to have some money left over after my monthly expenses and “play money.” So I started investing into some ETFs as well (VXUS, VOO, SCHD, SCHF, BSV, BLV, BIV). I may have too many ETFs, so I’m considering divesting in some and reinvesting in ones I have. So my question: does anyone have advice on how to track real performance across all my investments? I’m thinking of just a simple excel that I update quarterly and that tracks real market returns together with what I’ve invested against expenses. And then I’d like to extrapolate for potential future performance to see where the investments could be in 5, 10, 15+ years. This type of modeling would also help me with the divesting piece above. I just don’t really know how to do all of this, so any advice would be greatly appreciated.
GLDM, GLD for gold BIV intermediate bonds, I have not used that. I use EDV and TLT but they are longer duration treasuries. You could use those maybe at a lower percentage.
VIG, VYM, and VTI for your equities 20/20/10 BLV, BIV, and BSV for your fixed income 20/20/10 Annual yield is 3.73% so a $1m portfolio would generate $37k/year in dividends and interest Interest rates will drop eventually which will drop the yield. You could load up on some individual bonds to get more consistent cash flow but building and managing a bond portfolio can be difficult.
My largest positions are T-bills and directly owned investment real estate. Most of the T-bills came from selling stocks about three months ago. But I'm *not* adding to either of them. Right now, I'm selling a house, and I've been liquidating T-bills. Here's where my new money has been going: (a) Investing in stock market index funds (VOO, VXUS) (b) Investing in quality / value stock funds (SCHD, VIGI) (c) Investing in a few small and mid cap stocks that I like (d) Investing in medium duration bonds (BND, BIV) (e) Investing in credit markets / hard money lending (f) Paying off high interest debt If you don't like stocks, I would suggest (d) and (e). If there is a real SHTF scenario for the economy, the Fed will likely drop rates, and your bonds should do well.
Would highly recommend reading up on how bond prices work it's actually pretty simple at a high level for the majority of bonds, yields go up, the price goes down and vice versa. A higher chance of default risk (such as you own bonds from poor credit quality companies during a recession) also hurts price for corporate bonds. Some bond ETFs, like BND are already highly diversified. You can buy one of those and call it a day as they all sort of have different purposes. I'm not sure why exactly your investment horizon would be 6 years in a roth TBH so might want to think that but BND would probably be your best choice for this case unless you're being really conservative, then look into BIV (intermediate treasuries). If you're looking at bond ETFs, there's a lot but in terms of risk, it really boils down to 3 flavors. 1. Junk high yield (HYG) riskiest credit rating - gets hurts the most when the economy tanks 2. Mix high quality corporate and treasuries (BND) - less volatile than junk bonds and equities 3. Treasuries (TLT) backed by the US treasury - lowest risk of default, lowest yield. TLT is long term duration which is the riskiest of the treasuries - when rates rise long duration bonds get hurt more than shorter duration bonds. All that said you really should reconsider the time horizon for your Roth. Ideally you're not touching it until you really need it in retirement unless you're doing FIRE but if that's the case your whole portfolio should really be geared around it.
Given that you collect SS, a pension, and a 2k a month annuity... you probably should keep most of your $500k portfolio in stocks so that you can have better long term growth (people are living longer). You are also probably losing about 1% off the top to this advisor. I'd suggest something like 50% SCHD, 20% VIGI, and 30% BIV. Simple three fund portfolio. Collect the dividends, you'll have over 3% a year (over $1250 a month) and won't lose it all to inflation like you would by putting it all in fixed income.
I too was a dumbass who held lots of long-term bond ETFs through a predictably bad time to be invested in *anything* that moved inverse to interest rates. You live and you learn. I decreased most of my bond holdings (yes, I bought at the top and sold at the bottom - like a fucking dumbass). It's OK. I lost some money but I have time to make up for it. I'm not going retire for another 25 years. I had no business being so heavy weighted in bonds to begin with. Again, you live and learn. I've rebalanced into cash, growth stocks, and value stocks. I still hold some bond ETFs, but more along the lines of BSV and BND (BND is comparable with intermediate term BIV). I don't hold any long-term anymore. I am still parking money in MUNI bonds, e.g.: MUB. I'll sell out of that if I need some cash or if a crazy opportunity comes along (e.g.: March 2020) YMMV. None of us would be here talking shit on reddit if we could see into the future. We'd all be on Wall Street making stupid money.
That’s why you have to analyze what they are doing not what they are saying. So there’s this new algo that CBOE use to post but they took it down. It’s called volatility skew by tenor by moneyness. Ugly name, so let’s call it skew for short. It shows the cumulative behavior even if they are trying to hide it. For example, I go to VIX skew, and look at mid term expirations and at a glance I can see if everyone is putting pouring their money into certain parts of the option chain. This is from the site directly - they call skew [The Juice](https://blackiv.com/blogs/iv-university)but it’s the same thing. “TLDR - Juice: Juice is a dynamic oscillator that uses a unique algorithm to compare put and call option prices, helping traders detect unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. With the ability to study ATM, OTM, and DOTM options and switch between different expirations (short-term, medium-term, and long-term), Juice provides valuable insights for making informed trades. Traders' Guide to Juice: Juice is a powerful tool that helps traders make informed decisions by detecting unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. By comparing put and call option prices using a unique algorithm, Juice provides valuable insights into the market. One key insight provided by Juice is the ability to study short-term ATM skew, which tends to be highly correlated with itself and disparate from medium-term and long-term OTM and DOTM skew. This information can help traders identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed decisions. In addition to skew analysis, Juice allows traders to toggle between skew by volatility (BIV) or skew by option price (mid) to find the information that is most relevant to their strategy. As an example, by studying SPY, BIV Skew, Mid Term, and disabling OTM and DOTM lines, traders can see how the ATM Mid-Term skew can act as a leading indicator for price movements in May and November. Why Traders Care - Juice: Juice is a valuable addition to a trader's toolkit because it provides insights into unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. By comparing put and call option prices using a unique algorithm, Juice helps traders detect potential trading opportunities and make more informed trades. Traders can toggle between skew by volatility (BIV) or skew by option price (MID) to find the information that is most relevant to their strategy. Data scientists have back tested skew spikes and found 2 noteworthy signals. Two general patterns in skew graphs were identified, and the team plans to further analyze these patterns by rerunning the analysis on the two categories of stocks separately. The team also found that when skew values are higher than +40, the underlying security decreases in price, averaging \~3.5% after 20 calendar days. When skew values are lower than -40, the underlying security increases in price in the following days. The effect of high or low skew values on the underlying security is consistent across different spans and deltas but is more pronounced in Span 2 and OTM. However, Juice doesn't always work, and traders should use it in conjunction with other analysis techniques. Additionally, from the examples provided, DOTM spikes are the most common and mean the least, whereas OTM and ATM spikes, especially ATM spikes, mean a lot more.”  https://preview.redd.it/mmvszpp6htua1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=eb26d890554b45f35cf79ec5383d052207520dc1
That’s why you have to analyze what they are doing not what they are saying. So there’s this new algo that CBOE use to post but they took it down. It’s called volatility skew by tenor by moneyness. Ugly name, so let’s call it skew for short. It shows the cumulative behavior even if they are trying to hide it. For example, I go to VIX skew, and look at mid term expirations and at a glance I can see if everyone is putting pouring their money into certain parts of the option chain. This is from the site directly - they call skew - [juice](https://blackiv.com/blogs/iv-university/leveraging-juice-for-options-trading-a-dynamic-oscillator-that-uncovers-hidden-market-opportunities) but it’s the same thing. “**TLDR - Juice:** Juice is a dynamic oscillator that uses a unique algorithm to compare put and call option prices, helping traders detect unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. With the ability to study ATM, OTM, and DOTM options and switch between different expirations (short-term, medium-term, and long-term), Juice provides valuable insights for making informed trades. **Traders' Guide to Juice:** Juice is a powerful tool that helps traders make informed decisions by detecting unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. By comparing put and call option prices using a unique algorithm, Juice provides valuable insights into the market. One key insight provided by Juice is the ability to study short-term ATM skew, which tends to be highly correlated with itself and disparate from medium-term and long-term OTM and DOTM skew. This information can help traders identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed decisions. In addition to skew analysis, Juice allows traders to toggle between skew by volatility (BIV) or skew by option price (mid) to find the information that is most relevant to their strategy. As an example, by studying SPY, BIV Skew, Mid Term, and disabling OTM and DOTM lines, traders can see how the ATM Mid-Term skew can act as a leading indicator for price movements in May and November. **Why Traders Care - Juice:** Juice is a valuable addition to a trader's toolkit because it provides insights into unusual options market activity and shifts in sentiment. By comparing put and call option prices using a unique algorithm, Juice helps traders detect potential trading opportunities and make more informed trades. Traders can toggle between skew by volatility (BIV) or skew by option price (MID) to find the information that is most relevant to their strategy. Data scientists have back tested skew spikes and found 2 noteworthy signals. Two general patterns in skew graphs were identified, and the team plans to further analyze these patterns by rerunning the analysis on the two categories of stocks separately. The team also found that when skew values are higher than +40, the underlying security decreases in price, averaging \~3.5% after 20 calendar days. When skew values are lower than -40, the underlying security increases in price in the following days. The effect of high or low skew values on the underlying security is consistent across different spans and deltas but is more pronounced in Span 2 and OTM. However, Juice doesn't always work, and traders should use it in conjunction with other analysis techniques. Additionally, from the examples provided, DOTM spikes are the most common and mean the least, whereas OTM and ATM spikes, especially ATM spikes, mean a lot more.” https://preview.redd.it/7nrguw537tua1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=2fd91c7a935f2e3cd9dd2931c1e445bd95502a63
Here is my opinion. This not not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. Go check the Juice on Black IVs spy tool. Juice is volatility skew by expiration. Why does this matter? Because it allows you to see the actual buying power and behavior of the entire market. Literally 100% free tool that costs $1700 per month to get it from the exchange. So why does it matter? You talk about macro economics, yield curve, inflation, fed decision, etc. All valid things to track, the problem is, as we all know, the “market can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent.” The point I am making is that, at the end of the day, what matters, is what the collective market participants are doing. It’s not the numbers, it’s not macro, it is but it isn’t. There are times when those items are the key ingredients but that time is not now. You can tell because there is no net new news. Everything on every headline is something we all have already heard about. Times like these are the best opportunity for trades. Because you can turn the volume down on all the nose. And just analyze the shit out of behavior. Listen, there are technicals, there are fundamentals, there is macro, but the game changer that is just starting to be done is these behavior tools. Show me the actual behavior and I’m not talking put call ratio. Im not talking volume. Im talking the entire chain, every single input and track it. Track it every damn day, with every thing. TLDR, their juice tool has forecasted the last few big runs and it’s not signaling that way right now. On the demo you need to focus on the juice chart, which is on the risk on page. All of this is on the demo tab. Select SPY in the drop down, top right. Only on computer. The UI is piss on mobile. Then look at Juice, make sure it has BIV as the input, not MID. Go to Mid term expiration. Disable OTM and DOTM. You’ll see what I mean. If that thing isn’t juiced up, then there isn’t the fuel for a big move. Is that a guarantee. Shit now. But I will give you this. Everyone and their brother is bearish, that means there is technically fuel via cash sitting on the sidelines that can serve as the fuel for sending the market higher, but put yourself in their shoes. Do you think those folks, who are in cash, view the market as cheap? Is it enticing to them? I don’t see that. Which means you are getting retail money. Okay, how about Institutions? Even if they are bullish, and decide to flow money in and drive the market higher to create some fomo. Who is going to take the other side to get them out? Retail? No. They have got the shit kicked out of them all last year, they are cash lite and need to wait for their pitch. Plus they are holding onto some losers, so a market high would only get them back to basis. How about average investors and 401k money? Aka black rock and vanguard? If I see one more post about how they run the world, I’m going slap someone. The custodian the assets for their clients who are holders on record. It’s not like black rock and vanguard can move that money in and out with any speed at all. This money is middle America and their 401ks. They only sell when things get absolutely shit piss grim or when their financial consultant needs to rebalance them as their goals switch. But they are already at or near retirement age, so the majority of that money is allocated properly-ish for the next decade. If your bullish, I just don’t see where or who. Now remember, and a lot of people forget this. The market has 3 directions. 5 technically, but let’s keep it simple. Up, down, or sideways. I think a lot of people forget that. Just because you are *not bearish, it doesn’t mean you’re bullish. You can be not bearish, not bullish, and have a sideways consolidated view of the market. Sure 401k holders don’t really want they. Well the younger 401k holders because they want accumulation. Retail traders don’t want that because they like moon shot meme moves. But Institutions, smart money option traders, like the ones who are tracking those charts from companies like BlackIV, you think they give a shit? No, they seek alpha wherever they can find it. And sideways markets means you derive it via option chains, vol slew, fade up and fade down. And you just cut off the profits from both ends, but the market doesn’t really do shit. The profits are there though. The money is always moving, you just have to learn to your finger on the pulse, ear to the ground, listen to the market, don’t try and outsmart it. You can’t. If you do, take your gains and dip, because that doesn’t play out year after year. Unless you are, we’ll that is another story for another day. The fact remains. Don’t try to time it, don’t try to beat it. Unless it is those rare moments when the collective moon shot starts to bud, and throw some allocation that way. But all other times, or times like this, listen to what the market is giving you, take it, be grateful, and enjoy. Because around the corner is another market segment where nothing seems to make sense and you get whipsawed out of everything and you should just hang it up or go long delta, if vix is sub 18, per my latest backrest, generally speaking. Anyhow. I disagree 100% that now is the time to be bullish, sure maybe we fade higher, but then it will just come back to right around here to ultimately consolidates until we get some actually movement or rationale to bust one way or another. Grain of salt. Not financial advice, I am not your financial advisor.
Go check the Juice on Black IVs spy tool. Juice is volatility skew by expiration. Why does this matter? Because it allows you to see the actual buying power and behavior of the entire market. Literally 100% free tool that costs $1700 per month to get it from the exchange. So why does it matter? You talk about macro economics, yield curve, inflation, fed decision, etc. All valid things to track, the problem is, as we all know, the “market can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent.” The point I am making is that, at the end of the day, what matters, is what the collective market participants are doing. It’s not the numbers, it’s not macro, it is but it isn’t. There are times when those items are the key ingredients but that time is not now. You can tell because there is no net new news. Everything on every headline is something we all have already heard about. Times like these are the best opportunity for trades. Because you can turn the volume down on all the nose. And just analyze the shit out of behavior. Listen, there are technicals, there are fundamentals, there is macro, but the game changer that is just starting to be done is these behavior tools. Show me the actual behavior and I’m not talking put call ratio. Im not talking volume. Im talking the entire chain, every single input and track it. Track it every damn day, with every thing. TLDR, their juice tool has forecasted the last few big runs and it’s not signaling that way right now. On the demo you need to focus on the juice chart, which is on the risk on page. All of this is on the demo tab. Select SPY in the drop down, top right. Only on computer. The UI is piss on mobile. Then look at Juice, make sure it has BIV as the input, not MID. Go to Mid term expiration. Disable OTM and DOTM. You’ll see what I mean. If that thing isn’t juiced up, then there isn’t the fuel for a big move. Is that a guarantee. Shit now. But I will give you this. Everyone and their brother is bearish, that means there is technically fuel via cash sitting on the sidelines that can serve as the fuel for sending the market higher, but put yourself in their shoes. Do you think those folks, who are in cash, view the market as cheap? Is it enticing to them? I don’t see that. Which means you are getting retail money. Okay, how about Institutions? Even if they are bullish, and decide to flow money in and drive the market higher to create some fomo. Who is going to take the other side to get them out? Retail? No. They have got the shit kicked out of them all last year, they are cash lite and need to wait for their pitch. Plus they are holding onto some losers, so a market high would only get them back to basis. How about average investors and 401k money? Aka black rock and vanguard? If I see one more post about how they run the world, I’m going slap someone. The custodian the assets for their clients who are holders on record. It’s not like black rock and vanguard can move that money in and out with any speed at all. This money is middle America and their 401ks. They only sell when things get absolutely shit piss grim or when their financial consultant needs to rebalance them as their goals switch. But they are already at or near retirement age, so the majority of that money is allocated properly-ish for the next decade. If your bullish, I just don’t see where or who. Now remember, and a lot of people forget this. The market has 3 directions. 5 technically, but let’s keep it simple. Up, down, or sideways. I think a lot of people forget that. Just because you are *not bearish, it doesn’t mean you’re bullish. You can be not bearish, not bullish, and have a sideways consolidated view of the market. Sure 401k holders don’t really want they. Well the younger 401k holders because they want accumulation. Retail traders don’t want that because they like moon shot meme moves. But Institutions, smart money option traders, like the ones who are tracking those charts from companies like BlackIV, you think they give a shit? No, they seek alpha wherever they can find it. And sideways markets means you derive it via option chains, vol slew, fade up and fade down. And you just cut off the profits from both ends, but the market doesn’t really do shit. The profits are there though. The money is always moving, you just have to learn to your finger on the pulse, ear to the ground, listen to the market, don’t try and outsmart it. You can’t. If you do, take your gains and dip, because that doesn’t play out year after year. Unless you are, we’ll that is another story for another day. The fact remains. Don’t try to time it, don’t try to beat it. Unless it is those rare moments when the collective moon shot starts to bud, and throw some allocation that way. But all other times, or times like this, listen to what the market is giving you, take it, be grateful, and enjoy. Because around the corner is another market segment where nothing seems to make sense and you get whipsawed out of everything and you should just hang it up or go long delta, if vix is sub 18, per my latest backrest, generally speaking. Anyhow. I disagree 100% that now is the time to be bullish, sure maybe we fade higher, but then it will just come back to right around here to ultimately consolidates until we get some actually movement or rationale to bust one way or another.
——- What is Skew, why is it important, and can you get it yourself? ——- Tracking volatility skew can be crucial for traders because it can provide insight into market expectations and help identify opportunities for favorable trades. Understanding how order flow impacts skew can also help manage risk and make more informed decisions about your trades. The problem is, computing volatility skew on your own can be time-consuming - it can take up to 30 minutes per day per stock All business have operating expenses, and if you aren’t getting this intel, then there is really no point to try and trade and expect any decent returns, because trading is a zero-sum game. And the person on the other side of the trade has way more intelligence than you. It’s not a guarantee but at least you know the playing field is leveled. Or you have an edge over those who chose to use the same tools as everyone else. ——- Skew Providers ——- CBOE dot com or BlackIV dot com or Interactive Brokers aka IBKR Three completely different providers. One is a data provider (CBOE) One is skew done for you (Black IV) And one is a brokerage with skew tools enabled on some of their accounts (IBKR) Tracking volatility skew can be crucial for traders because it can provide insight into market expectations and help identify opportunities for favorable trades. Understanding how order flow impacts skew can also help manage risk and make more informed decisions about your trades. The problem is, computing volatility skew on your own can be time-consuming - it can take up to 30 minutes per day per stock. That's where skew providers come in. There are several options available, including CBOE Live vol, Black IV, and Interactive Brokers (IBKR). And I’m sure there are more. CBOE Live vol is a robust option with a wide range of capabilities, it comes with a price tag ranging from $100 to $1700 per month. If you have advanced technical skills in programming and databases, you may be able to replicate similar functionality for around $20 per month per stock, but that was before their last price increase. CBOE has recently raised its prices significantly, which may be a factor to consider. Black IV offers a more cost-effective solution for retail traders, with a monthly fee of just $10 and skew coverage on a selection of 90 stocks, with the possibility of adding more upon request. While it may not have the same level of customization and technical capabilities as CBOE Live vol, Black IV's "done for you" approach may be more suitable for those who want a more streamlined, user-friendly experience. Black IV is also set to release a HyperView dashboard for retail traders to analyze the entire chain. One potential advantage of using IBKR for skew data is that it is integrated with the brokerage platform, which can make it easier for traders to view and analyze skew data alongside their other trading activity. However, it's worth noting that IBKR is geared more towards professional traders and investors, and may not be as user-friendly for retail traders who are just starting out. Overall, IBKR is a solid option for traders who are already using the platform for their trading and are looking for additional resources, such as skew data. ——- Resources to help you make your decision: ——- See below for demo videos of both options. The CBOE is done by Mark Sebastian and can be a bit intense so maybe start with the 5 minute BIV to understand. As far as the Black IV videos - this is not the HyperView dashboard, I’ve seen one screenshot of it and it looks pretty gnarly. Either way, I track Vol skew on every trade before, during and after, it’s not the sole thing I trade on but it’s always in the playbook. I have used both providers. 1. BlackIV - 5 minute demo https://youtu.be/suRwZ5xKzbE 2. BlackIV - 25 minute demo https://youtu.be/akGRIDC5xgg 3. CBOE - 30 minute Live Vol demo - https://youtu.be/eHG2jcCU91U 4. IBKR - 25 minutes full TWS demo - https://youtu.be/1NImrY9W_Ag
——- What is Skew, why is it important, and can you get it yourself? ——- Tracking volatility skew can be crucial for traders because it can provide insight into market expectations and help identify opportunities for favorable trades. Understanding how order flow impacts skew can also help manage risk and make more informed decisions about your trades. The problem is, computing volatility skew on your own can be time-consuming - it can take up to 30 minutes per day per stock All business have operating expenses, and if you aren’t getting this intel, then there is really no point to try and trade and expect any decent returns, because trading is a zero-sum game. And the person on the other side of the trade has way more intelligence than you. It’s not a guarantee but at least you know the playing field is leveled. Or you have an edge over those who chose to use the same tools as everyone else. ——- Skew Providers ——- CBOE dot com or BlackIV dot com or Interactive Brokers aka IBKR Three completely different providers. One is a data provider (CBOE) One is skew done for you (Black IV) And one is a brokerage with skew tools enabled on some of their accounts (IBKR) Of course, I have a bias for one of these and you will probably be able to pick that up, so grain of salt, and I’ll do my best describing who each of the 3 options are designed for. Tracking volatility skew can be crucial for traders because it can provide insight into market expectations and help identify opportunities for favorable trades. Understanding how order flow impacts skew can also help manage risk and make more informed decisions about your trades. The problem is, computing volatility skew on your own can be time-consuming - it can take up to 30 minutes per day per stock. That's where skew providers come in. There are several options available, including CBOE Live vol, Black IV, and Interactive Brokers (IBKR). And I’m sure there are more. CBOE Live vol is a robust option with a wide range of capabilities, it comes with a price tag ranging from $100 to $1700 per month. If you have advanced technical skills in programming and databases, you may be able to replicate similar functionality for around $20 per month per stock, but that was before their last price increase. CBOE has recently raised its prices significantly, which may be a factor to consider. Black IV offers a more cost-effective solution for retail traders, with a monthly fee of just $10 and skew coverage on a selection of 90 stocks, with the possibility of adding more upon request. While it may not have the same level of customization and technical capabilities as CBOE Live vol, Black IV's "done for you" approach may be more suitable for those who want a more streamlined, user-friendly experience. Black IV is also set to release a HyperView dashboard for retail traders to analyze the entire chain. One potential advantage of using IBKR for skew data is that it is integrated with the brokerage platform, which can make it easier for traders to view and analyze skew data alongside their other trading activity. However, it's worth noting that IBKR is geared more towards professional traders and investors, and may not be as user-friendly for retail traders who are just starting out. Overall, IBKR is a solid option for traders who are already using the platform for their trading and are looking for additional resources, such as skew data. ——- Resources to help you make your decision: ——- See below for demo videos of both options. The CBOE is done by Mark Sebastian and can be a bit intense so maybe start with the 5 minute BIV to understand. As far as the Black IV videos - this is not the HyperView dashboard, I’ve seen one screenshot of it and it looks pretty gnarly. I’m going to dedicate a monitor in my house and leave it always on because the damn thing looks like artwork. Again, not this version, the current version looks like it was made by engineers but it does the trick for the price. Either way, I track Vol skew on every trade before, during and after, it’s not the sole thing I trade on but it’s always in the playbook. I have used both providers. 1. BlackIV - 5 minute demo https://youtu.be/suRwZ5xKzbE 2. BlackIV - 25 minute demo https://youtu.be/akGRIDC5xgg 3. CBOE - 30 minute Live Vol demo - https://youtu.be/eHG2jcCU91U 4. IBKR - 25 minutes full TWS demo - https://youtu.be/1NImrY9W_Ag
——- What is Skew, why is it important, and can you get it yourself? ——- Tracking volatility skew can be crucial for retail traders because it can provide insight into market expectations and help identify opportunities for favorable trades. Understanding how order flow impacts skew can also help manage risk and make more informed decisions about your trades. The problem is, computing volatility skew on your own can be time-consuming - it can take up to 30 minutes per day per stock All business have operating expenses, and if you aren’t getting this intel, then there is really no point to try and trade and expect any decent returns, because trading is a zero-sum game. And the person on the other side of the trade has way more intelligence than you. It’s not a guarantee but at least you know the playing field is leveled. Or you have an edge over those who chose to use the same tools as everyone else. ——- Skew Providers ——- CBOE dot com or BlackIV dot com Two places that do it incredibly well. Two completely different providers. While CBOE Live vol is a robust option with a wide range of capabilities, it comes with a high price tag ranging from $100 to $1700 per month.If you have advanced technical skills in programming and databases, you may be able to replicate similar functionality for around $20 per month per stock but that was before their last price increase. On the other hand, Black IV offers a more cost-effective solution for retail traders. With a monthly fee of just $10, Black IV provides Vol skew coverage on a selection of 90 stocks, with the possibility of adding more upon request. While it may not have the same level of customization and technical capabilities as CBOE Live vol, Black IV's "done for you" approach may be more suitable for those who want a more streamlined, user-friendly experience. Plus, BlackIV is dropping a HyperView dashboard that is made for a retail trader to analyze the entire chain, every Greek, every strike, every expiration or at least that is their claim. It’s been coming the last few months but they say it’s dropping in January and won’t raise the price for existing subs. CBOE did just raise their prices by 400% so I believe you are safe from a price increase with them. Overall, both CBOE Live vol and Black IV have their own strengths and weaknesses. If you have advanced technical skills and are willing to pay a higher price, CBOE Live vol may be the better choice for you. If you're a retail trader looking for a more user-friendly edge, Black IV might fit better with your trading style. ——- Resources to help you make your decision: ——- See below for demo videos of both options. The CBOE is done by Mark Sebastian and can be a bit intense so maybe start with the 5 minute BIV to understand. As far as the Black IV videos - this is not the HyperView dashboard, I’ve seen one screenshot of it and it looks pretty gnarly. I’m going to dedicate a monitor in my house and leave it always on because the damn thing looks like artwork. Again, not this version, the current version looks like it was made by engineers but it does the trick for the price. Either way, I track Vol skew on every trade before, during and after, it’s not the sole thing I trade on but it’s always in the playbook. I have used both providers. 1. BlackIV - 5 minute demo https://youtu.be/suRwZ5xKzbE 2. BlackIV - 25 minute demo https://youtu.be/akGRIDC5xgg 3. CBOE Live Vol demo - https://youtu.be/eHG2jcCU91U
I have a question about **BIV** and **VGIT** **BIV** is Vanguards intermediate term bond ETF, which includes a ~20% holding of BBB bonds. **VGIT** is Vanguards intermediate term Treasury ETF, which has a lower Yield, but is definitely much safer. My question is regarding the **2008-2009** financial crisis. How common was it for **BBB** bonds to default? **BBB** is the first level above a junk bond, how bad does it have to get for **BBB** to become a junk bond. Should I just invest in **VGIT** because of the safety of treasuries, or is it stupid to not just take the higher yield of **BIV**
You could ban bet US10Y or a bond ETF like TLT or BIV.
I bought a lot of bond ETFs for my IRA based on the advice of my financial advisor two years ago, because she thought it was too stock heavy. My BIV is down 20%. I'm frustrated because I did not understand what bond ETFs were before, which is why I enlisted the help of a professional. Had I just stayed ignorant I'd be doing far better. Not even sure what to do now
So this might sound like a silly question, but for my IRA should I actively be selling high and buying low during this market? For example, if I bought in VOO at an average cost of $320 should I sell all of it right now at $366 in case it goes down? Also, is it okay to have all of my IRA in VOO? If diversified into IXUS, BIV and SCHA but it doesn’t do well so I feel like it’s a waste of allocation. Does anyone have any recs if not all into VOO?
At present, you can earn more from individual treasury issues of a specific duration than you can with bank CDs of the same duration. This was not true back in, say, 2011-2014, when numerous banks were offering CDs that yielded appreciably more than their corresponding treasury issue. Back then, it made sense to shift some money from treasuries to CDs, but I don't think it does today. For instance, the best current 5-year CD I could find is a 2.15% offer from Capital One. That would have been interesting back in 2019, but today you can buy a 5-year treasury note that yields 2.95%, with no state-tax owed on the interest. In nearly all instances, the latter is clearly a more attractive offer than the former. In terms of the drop in share-price of the bond funds you mentioned, the move is indeed large in historical terms, but given the average duration of the fund and the extent to which intermediate-term interest rates have risen this past year, it makes sense. There is a rule of thumb that says a 1% rise in interest rates will cause a bond fund to drop by the average duration of the fund in percentage terms. Since BND's average duration is 6.9 years, one should expect a 1% increase in intermediate-term interest rates to cause an approximately 6.9% loss. However, interest rates have risen more than 1% year-to-date -- the 5-year rate started the year at 1.37%, and is currently at 2.95% -- so while the drop has been large historically speaking, it is still in line with what one would expect given the fund's duration. Another rule of thumb is that, all else equal, after a 1% rise in interest rates, it will take the fund's average duration to get back to even. In BND's case, that's about 6.9 years per 1% rise in rates. However, that assumes that current interest rates don't continue to fluctuate in that time, which is unlikely. They could continue to rise, in which case your break-even gets pushed further into the future, but they could just as likely fall, dragging your break-even point closer to the present. As another poster mentioned, the fundamental issue here is the duration of your holding, and the volatility that results from large swings in interest rates. If that volatility is a problem for your specific situation, then in the future it might make sense to keep some of your bond portfolio in a shorter-duration fund, such as BSV (BND's shorter-term equivalent), which has an average duration of 2.7 years compared to 6.9 for BND. This wil fluctuate much less in value, but will generally also yield less income over time. There are always trade-offs. In terms of what to do now, I wouldn't do much. I certainly wouldn't switch to CDs, given their uncompetitive yields. If your bond funds are in a taxable account (not recommended, but it can't always be helped), then you might consider tax-loss harvesting any lots with losses for a similar but not identical fund, such as BIV or VGIT. Those realized losses will lower your tax-burden for this year (and possibly future years, depending on the scale of your losses), and offset some of the interest your funds generate. Another option is to realize those losses and use the money to purchase the maximum allowable amount of Series I savings bonds for this year. You can learn more about the Series I issues [here](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm). They are an interesting albeit limited deal for the small investor, and have the additional benefit of being nonmarketable securities. That means they're redeemed, not sold, so you will always get back as much as you put in or more, but never less. It's been a rough year for fixed-income, but so long as the borrowers remain solvent, you'll get your money back eventually (on a nominal, pre-tax basis, of course). Total bond funds are convenient holdings, but it never hurts to have some shorter-term holdings for more immediate spending needs, should they arise.
There is a spectrum of risk. For bonds, here is a sampling of bond funds with ascending levels of risk: [SGOV](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf) < [VUSB](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vusb) < [VGSH](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgsh) < [VGIT](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgit) < [BNDW](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bndw)/[BIV](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/biv) < [BLV](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/blv)/[USHY](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/291299/ishares-broad-usd-high-yield-corporate-bond-etf) < [EDV](https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/edv) < [TMF](https://www.direxion.com/product/daily-20-year-treasury-bull-bear-3x-etfs) SGOV is virtually risk-free because it invests in treasury bills with 3 months or less until maturity. It has neither interest rate risk nor credit risk. It has very little return now but when interest rates are higher, its returns will be higher. BLV has high interest rate risk, whereas USHY has high credit risk. TMF has *extremely* high interest rate risk, leveraged by derivatives. US Treasury savings bonds operate on a different plane because they're not marketable. When inflation is high right now, I-bonds are a great deal.
From a quick google BIV sells its bonds once they have less than 3 years duration left. So in this case maturity doesn't come into it. Back to the original question the funds NAV had decreased due to falling bond prices caused by higher interest rates. But it will still make returns. Historically in the range of 5% p.a . So all else being equal you will make it back quick.
I should have been clearer-- I meant intermediate bond ETFs, namely BIV. How does bond maturity come into play when investing in ETFs?
> How concerning is this as far as boglehead theory goes? Not concerning. > What about bond funds like BIV and BLV from Vanguard? The NAV goes down a little, but no long-term bond holder should care much. Bonds don't make money from NAV, they make money from coupon payments. > tend to naturally recover because they can get higher interest rates for cheaper? Define recover? the NAV will fluctuate a little bit, nobody buy and hold should care, they aren't selling. The coupon payments will go up eventually as interest rates rise. > Would they rise in price because they would become more attractive to investors? The NAV will likely eventually recover, but again, the NAV is mostly pointless nonsense for long term boglehead type investors.
This is not as basic a question as it seems, and lots of people get it wrong! The key point is that bond fund managers buy and sell the underlying bonds regularly in order to maintain a consistent average maturity. So when rates go up, two forces act on the value of the fund simultaneously: * The value of the fund goes down initially because the coupons for bonds currently in the fund are lower than what is available on the primary bond market * The value of the fund gradually goes up as the old bonds reach maturity and the fund manager rebalances into new bonds with higher coupons. The second process ultimately overtakes the first, and if you hold the fund for long enough then you come out ahead. If you do the math under some idealized assumptions, you get that the break even point is twice the average maturity of the bonds in the fund minus one year. For example, the average maturity of BIV is 7.2 years, so if you're planning to hold it for at least 13.4 years then you don't have to worry about what happens to interest rates now.
Thank you all for debating and discussing. It's my son's ESA... Really can't afford to lose anything so I figured that parking it all in BIV would at least keep. But man... I don't have to touch it before the Fall 22 tuition payment! If it's down another 5%, I'll be tight!!!
Been in BIV for a year, too... down like 5%. Bonds are... I have no idea what they're supposed to do...
you can use HSA as a pseudo IRA if you want to keep everything tax deferred. As far as bonds go at your age I am not sure you need to have any, Just be aware that BIV doesn't have Mortgages , while I believe BND and SCHZ do. You should see how much of your bond allocation overall is in your TR funds I think most already have 15-10% allocated into bonds , which may be more than enough already. When it comes to small caps while VB is cheaper , I actually prefer vanguard sp600 small cap etfs, they are more small cappy if thats even an word. So if you want to buy vanguard one that would be vioo. There is also IJR, Ishares sp600 etf, thats slightly cheaper at .06% expense ratio as seen [here](https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijr/quote) or [here](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239774/ishares-core-sp-smallcap-etf)
I'm pretty new to investing, but finally getting around to moving some of my savings into a brokerage account rather than just let them sit around in my (no longer) high yield savings account. I'm almost 30 and already have an emergency fund and max out 401k and Roth IRA (both target date funds), so this is money that I may use some of in 5ish years for a down payment but otherwise just want to build long term wealth but don't really plan to touch for a while. For reference my plan is to move about 30k into investments with an additional 500 or so a month. I have a brokerage account with Schwab already and am planning to do just a lazy portfolio having picked out SCHX, SCHA or VB, and SCHF for large cap, small cap, and international. What I'm not sure about is the fixed income bonds. I have about 10k in I and EE bonds that were gifted to me as a child that will be coming into maturity this year or early next year. I was already thinking of just reinvesting them and purchasing more I/EE bonds with that money. Is it still worth it to hold some bond funds (looking at SCHZ, BIV, or BND) as well, even if I already hold a good chunk of money in bonds or is that a bit redundant? Additionally any recommendations between SCHA/VB and SCHZ/BIV/BND? Looks like the schwab expenses are 0.01 less probably because my account is with Schwab but the VB and BIV/BND funds have better past performance, not sure if those differences in performance are negligible though.
Can't wait for my bonds to double in value this month!! I'm down 4% year-to-year in BIV
Yep. They're not getting what the I expected from BND or BIV. 🤷🏾 What about what I do expected from this shit hole country?
If you'd like to invest in bonds, the easiest way to do so is to buy shares of a bond fund. For example, [BIV](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/BIV) holds both US treasury and corporate intermediate-term bonds. If you'd like to read about how to invest in bond funds, I've summarized it [here](https://github.com/investindex/Risk#understanding-bonds-and-their-risks), and a bunch of example bond funds are [here](https://github.com/investindex/Funds#summary). Given that you're 41, there's little good reason to include bonds in your retirement portfolio. A 100% stock portfolio has the highest expected return. But even if you decide not to use bonds in your IRA, you could use them to invest money with a shorter time horizon in a normal, taxable brokerage account. You have a good distribution of FSKAX and FTIHX. On top of using these funds as the core of a retirement portfolio, you could increase your expected return by investing in other sub-asset classes like small cap value stocks. Click [here](https://github.com/investindex/Portfolio) if you're interested in reading about that -- it's an important part of building a well-diversified stock portfolio.
Citi got it worse than most but financial stocks got creamed in 2008. You can argue he should have exited in 2004 when Citi was crazy overpriced. But in all fairness to your Dad everyone in the world took the same beating in 2008. If you weren't playing then it was rough. BIV probably wouldn't have been your bond fund in 2008 so a better analogy to 60/40 as it actually looked back then would have been something like Vanguard's Wellington which lost 1/3rd in 2008.
I'm invested in total market ETFs like VT and VTI, which are doing quite well. Why are you picking individual stocks? 60% VTI and 40% BIV have returned over 10% per year for years now, and require no action on my part. That being said, I recently had to take over my Dad's finances, and he was decent at picking some pretty solid blue chip stocks. He loved dividends, etc. All it took was for one of his picks (Citibank) to go bad, and it totally negated any gains made from the rest of his portfolio. He rode it all the way down while it lost 90% of its value. He made 0% for ten years, while everyone else was making double digits. He has dementia. Don't invest like my Dad.
I have learned that worrying rates will go up is like worrying stocks will go down. Yes it will happen but people have been saying rates are going up for past 10 years and it has been the opposite, with solid bond returns instead. The Bond market is complex so you can find various ways to manage risk. And plus is, when rates go up, bond values descrease, but they will start to pay more interest and will ultimately make up their losses. Ultimately a bond position has proven to be important to lower overall portfolio volatility. It will also push you to sell equities high and buy low when you rebalance. (Many people follow the herd and do the exact opposite). For about any investor I recommend at least a 20% bond allocation. To manage risk, you can move to lower durations and higher quality like SLQD. Shorter duration is lower yield now but less risk to bond value and interest income is more responsive to rates with faster turnover. You can look up duration at Morningstar. Eg BIV has a duration of ~6 which means it’s value will drop 6% for each 1% increase in rates. You can also look at inflation protected bonds. The bond market also still has a lot of inefficiency which plays well for active mangers and I see that reducing risk too. My favorite actively manged bond fund is PONAX.
Yeah I agree with the younger side. On the older side why not keep cash in that case? BIV has lost money in the last year and I don’t see how it’s value will increase as the interest rates rise in the future
ɴᴏᴡ ᴘʟᴀʏɪɴɢ: [BELL BIV DEVOE POISON ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YejxyaFyUHc) ─────────⚪───── ◄◄⠀[▶](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YejxyaFyUHc)⠀►►⠀ 2:54 / 4:21 ⠀ ───○ 🔊 ᴴᴰ ⚙️
To be specific, I bought BIV in December.
AGG and BIV both yield over 2% and are limited on the downside. AGG held up well during the financial crisis with only a small dip, both saw only around a 10% dip peak to trough during the March low. If you want completely risk free there's SCHO, but the yield is tiny and it won't outperform inflation. You need to have some level of risk to earn more than 1% or so, so bond funds with some corporate bond exposure are necessary. There may be equity or blended funds that deal mostly with preferreds or dividend stocks mixed with treasuries, but the more equity exposure there is, the more downside risk gets introduced, along with the upside potential.
Depends how strongly you believe this. If you are highly certain a market crash is coming then switch your portfolio to something like 25/75 VT/BIV. VT is Vanguard total world stock market and BIV is Vanguard intermediate term bonds. In the great financial crisis this portfolio only lost 13%. Replacing some of the bonds with some combination of gold, bitcoin, and cash will likely result in even better performance.
I like BIV, a well run etf that has a long history of 5% returns with very little downside although the recent rate rises may hurt a bit. Alternatively, in the same family is BSV, a short duration fund that's rock solid but only has about a 2% return. Choose your risk/reward.