CME

Delicious_Put_5857

imagine u both cum at the exact moment CME hits 7% limit down :sorrow:

throwaway9gk0k4k569

Contrary to what The Media is telling you, there is a very very high chance of an October rate increase, or that December becomes a +0.5% increase. The CPI and PPI surprise will not be ignored. The Media is hyping up the fact that Warsh didn't react to those reports in his press conference yesterday. He did the same thing last time and then raised rates. CME Fed Watch has 82% chance of holding steady right now. They are wrong. By Monday the 26th they will be saying 50/50 at best.

B1g_C4p1T4l

Warsh already took the "force" part off the table today: speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok he said he won't prejudge, called October and December the crystallising meetings, and said things have broadly conformed to the Fed's expectations since the September hike. That last line is the hawkish tell, since the September projections had most officials pencilling in at least one more hike this year. Futures read the week the other way though: CME FedWatch had October hike odds around 27%, down from roughly 50% a session earlier. With zero forward guidance from the chair, I'd expect today's import prices and industrial production to move short-dated yields more than they normally would, and December looks like the more realistic live meeting.

jrex035

SII is essentially an asset management company right? I've bought some of the Sprott etfs before like URNM. Definitely an interesting take on it, need to do some more research on how they make money and how tied SII is to the commodity trade more broadly. I bought CME on a swing trade earlier this year as well

TorukMaktoM

**What moved the market:** September CPI rose 0.6% on the month — its fastest pace in five months — putting the annual rate at 3.7%, above both the 3.4% August reading and the 3.6% consensus estimate. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in September alone, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase and reflecting the ongoing supply disruption from the Iran war. Core CPI came in at 2.6% year-over-year, a tick above the 2.5% forecast. Prices for over 52% of the CPI basket rose above 3% in September, and 35% of components rose above 4%, meaning the inflation shock is no longer just an energy story — it is broadening. Traders on CME FedWatch jumped the probability of a December rate hike to 78% from 55% within minutes of the release. Bank of America was the session’s biggest single-stock loser, falling almost 5% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and earnings even before accounting for a $1.2 billion federal penalty for widespread failures in anti-money-laundering safeguards. Morgan Stanley and BlackRock both beat estimates, providing isolated pockets of strength. The chip sector extended its brutal slide, with the SOXX semiconductor ETF tumbling 4% and extending its five-day decline to more than 10%, as investors continued to de-rate AI infrastructure names amid the OpenAI revenue question and Asian memory sector carnage. The 10-year yield’s decline despite the hot CPI print was the session’s most counterintuitive move, with analysts noting the bond market may be starting to price in recession risk from aggressive tightening rather than simply more hikes. Tomorrow brings **September PPI**, **initial jobless claims**, and **TSMC’s quarterly earnings** — the AI trade’s last critical data point of the week before Friday’s **retail sales report** and **Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at 03:30 GMT**, which will be his first public remarks since the CPI data reset the December rate hike calculus.

Retire_date_may_22

The market has built in 3 rate increases not cuts. Check out CME fed watch

Valkyrie_Skuld

Background for this week. The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 by a unanimous vote. CME FedWatch prices a December hike at around 70%. The next Fed decision is October 28. Internationally, the main events are China CPI on Wednesday, Australian employment data on Thursday, and the IMF meeting.

Full_Pear449

Just for your edification: Traded 25+ for TOP 3 Primary Dealer, retired at 47 (2015) as Managing Director of 15 person trading desk, and now I sit here reading your ludicrous childish BS, MS Applied Statistical Analytics, NEVER NO NEVER got a bonus check based on Skills related to CORRECT GRAMMAR USAGE, Never ONCE did a trade based on Proper Grammar and neither should you. Just listened to Former Desk morning meeting and the highlights are below . Right now sunrising in 10minutes (7:22am) ,part cloudy, and now we are going down to Palmetto breakfast Cafe in Hilton Head ,leaving around Noon(gonna rain lots) headed home for awhile. You have a great day and keep up the good work on accentuating the utter sine qua non of proper gramattcal usage and success in Trading. I am absoluetly sure there is a POSITIVE Corelation between the 2 theoretical constructs. US stock index futures fell on Thursday, pressured by inflation concerns as oil jumped nearly 4% and Treasury yields rose, while chipmakers faced renewed scrutiny despite a strong forecast from Samsung.Broadcom is lining up$50 billionof financing for OpenAI, with Oracle also seeking an unspecified sum, spurring fears that massive debt issuance by technology companies could intensify the competition for capital. A rebound in Treasury yields and oil prices knocked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq from record highs a day earlier, while the Dow snapped a four-day winning streak.The weak sentiment persisted on Thursday, with Brent crude jumping over 4% on the back of attacks on shipping in the Gulf and theStrait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production. Renewed inflation worries has pushed Treasury yields higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing to 5.34%, though it remained below earlier session highs. We expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its October meeting, but a December hike remains on the cards, according to CME FedWatch. The rest of my Former Desk's morning meeting you are not entitled to.

Delicious_Put_5857

maybe, no idea how the pie will get divided between HL, kalshi, CME, etc.

lucky_allergy

Why rely on a betting site when actual fed funds futures are sitting right there. Polymarket volume is thin compared to CME, even 10 mil is nothing next to what trades on the futures. The CME tool pulls from the 30 day contracts directly so its not some third party guessing game, the numbers there are closer to what the market is actually pricing

manofjacks

And just like that, CME's prediction of a Fed rate hike at October's meeting is now down to 21%, down from 64.2% a week ago!

isalreadytakensothis

"the two tables below assume a Closing XRP Price of $1.04119 (which was the closing price for XRP as reported by the “CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate - New York Variant” as of June 30, 2026)." I believe the number of shares paid to evernorth is adjusted to reflect changes in xrp price. So a current price of \~$1.50 would mean more shares are issued, and would be bring the value to somewhere around $10 per share. That's how these usually work. I could be wrong, but I think if that was not the case, we would not have seen the redemptions. I sold a small warrant position yesterday which was dumb. Warrants will deserve a very high volatility premium, but I bet the warrant price is a better indicator of future price than the common is. I could again be wrong.

internetsoci0path

Do you want to excel later in life, make good plays w/ options and DCA into long term holds / exercise contracts? Or do you want to bet your money on 15 min speculative asset gambles on platforms that arent even following CME prices properly. Do better, bro.

Ill-Ad1603

I’m building a probabilistic equity-research agent implemented as a modular research application that 1. Collects evidence 2. Normalizes and validates that evidence 3. Runs multiple specialized analytical engines 4. Identifies conflicts and interactions between variables 5. Determines what the market already expects 6. Builds conditional future paths 7. Synthesizes those paths probabilistically and determine the most probable 6–12 month trajectory 8. Produces a traceable investment-research conclusion What I’m building isn’t an AI trading bot, a stock-picking tool, or something that tells you whether a stock is a “buy” or “sell.” It also isn’t primarily a DCF model that tries to calculate what a stock should be worth. It’s more like an equity research engine. You give it a stock, and it thoroughly analyzes everything that could influence its performance over the next 6–12 months, the company’s fundamentals, earnings and analyst expectations, catalysts, competition, valuation, macroeconomic environment, and market narrative/sentiment. It then tries to determine the most probable trajectory for the stock over the next 6–12 months, rather than simply giving you a bull case and a bear case. The output is essentially a probability distribution of possible price trajectories, for example, what probability the system assigns to the stock ending up around $X, $Y, $Z, etc., based on the information and expectations available today. So the goal isn’t to tell you what to buy. It’s to build a very thorough, evidence-based model of where a stock is most likely headed and what factors could cause that trajectory to change This engine will make API calls to SEC, FRED, BLS, CME Fedwatch tool, Individual company’s IR page, and various news sources such as Reuters, Bloomberg to fetch live data that feeds into the Narrative engines. Any thoughts on this?

SnappyEmanuel597

the RSG buy is the one that made me raise an eyebrow, of all the industrial plays out there he goes for trash collection. it's almost too on the nose but the cash flow logic tracks people are gonna dismiss this as political noise but following the actual filings is just smart, the timing on that CME sale before the hyperliquid news dropped is wild

Delicious-Tax5635

$$$$CHI Bears, $$$$CHI Bulls, $$$$CME 🚂

Full_Pear449

" Have lost a lot over the last 7-8 years and finally found a strategy that works for me and got lucky for the last few months just being patient." Your statement - so it took you 7-8 years to realize that you REALLY didn't know what your were doing. Did you not read about RISK MANAGEMENT, that just doesn't appertian to size, risk/reward, loss limits of the much dreaded 1% rule. It's broader tentacles reach out into and across The Macro level such as Class heterogeneity, Operationl and Tech Risk, Psychologiacal Risk, Behavioral Risk. You obviously never read about Avoidance, Resourcing and reviewing. You also, quite obviouly, never manifested the ability to admit your wrongs and religate your exercise and lack of experise to using a trade simulator. You should have gone to CME , signed up for an account(FREE) and used their EXTENSIVE Library and FREE Trade Simulator to understand what you were doing wrong and why and maybe how to fix it.

watercooling

Hyperliquid is basically a blockchain orderbook; permissionless meaning anyone can deposit and trade long/short with leverage without KYC, as well as build apps on top (including deploying markets). Actually pretty great tech, especially for people without access to US financial infrastructure. It’s outperformed all through the crypto bear market since October, I faded the token HYPE at $8 but still hit a clean 2.5x. Now they’re going for US regulatory compliance, Trump mentioned it by name recently (of course it’s an insider traders dream for reasons already mentioned, plenty of 8-9 figure oil trades have been made before Iran announcements lol), it’s definitely going to eat some of the retail trader market share from CBOE/CME.

No_Complex_2603

3 month options on Microsoft killed me most recently. Spy has killed me sometimes too, but I never touch it now. It’s a lure. Microsoft took me to $600k+ then took it all back over the following 21 days. I kept dcaing in thinking it was safe. If I didn’t sell on the bottom the position was 1.2m lol. Oh well, I’m already grinding back up. Had Spy puts from 779 down then switched into this little tech rally + $MCD & $CME. I expect to be back above $150k in like a couple months.

duboilburner

I don't think there is as much liquidity in futures options as there are in the actual index options. The problem with futures options is futures as a whole are done through CME, including their options. CME doesn't release accurate position data flows. Only CBOE does that, and CBOE only does it for SPX and VIX--nothing else. So, GEX analysis for anything other than SPX or VIX is going to be with either the naive model or an inference model, which simply isn't going to be accurate. /ES futures you can get useful levels thanks to the accurate SPX options positions if you have that data. Market makers delta hedge their SPX options book with /ES futures.

yvngboy1234

everyone wants 24/7 so if 🥭 decides to bomb iran at 3am we can move. also it’s just the new wave. with blockchain it’s already been being used, CME and Nasdaq will operate as a hybrid

MoonLambro

I keep getting ads for CME’s futures. Is there any actual advantage to single stock futures if you’re not retarded and know your greeks?

No_Complex_2603

Gotta be buying CME and MCD.

Middle-Conclusion-67

just realised bitcoin and eth CME futures run on weekends

Aggravating-Back631

outlined by analyses from the CME Group ), the classic sequence remains: oil spikes, inflation jumps, the Fed hikes rates, the economy weakens into a stall or recession, and the Fed eventually cuts rates to restore growth

michal939

The CME FedWatch is based on Futures Contracts. This one is ZQU6. You can trade those at many brokers probably, at IBKR you just search ZQ and choose the month. The liquidity is very good. However, you can't just bet on a specific decision with the futures, you bet on average effective federal funds rate for the rest of September. It seems that based on the Polymarket predictions and my rough quick calculations the "fair price" of the contract is 96.2675 vs current mid point of 96.2638. ZQ has a multiplier of $4,167 per point so you can "arbitrage" about $15/contract. Subtract broker fees and Polymarket fees/slippage on thousands of contracts that you'll have to buy and you're left with maybe few bucks per contract. And also you have to fill all orders on Poly or you'll not be fully hedged so if there is low liquidity in the 50bps hike market for example then you're fucked. But you can do it if you want.

RizzlerNerden

You can't, the hedge funds are already doing it to keep both markets in line, the difference is just the trading cost (and you couldn't do it as a retail investor anyway, you need to have an account with a FCM to trade CME futures

bigthink3r

Fed rate hike tomorrow with a 92% chance from CME fed watch. Good luck bro.

thri54

What are you made at Schwab for? Take it up with CME.

_176_

What is the reason to raise them? I know CME is saying [92% chance](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) they raise. But CPI is at 3.4% and PCE is at 3.7%, that doesn't seem too bad. Is there some other reason?

Puzzleheaded-Pass-64

Go to CME rate watch for odds, not Kalshi. Highly unlikely if CME at 90% prediction for a hike that anything other than .25 bps hike does not happen. Warsh's and the Feds credibility is on the line. No hike and there will be a bind sell off and yields on 10 year will go much higher forcing the feds hand.

FinishWarm1746

[ES1! 7,691.00 ▲ +0.87%](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21)

BGID_to_the_moon

You listed the source. CME fedwatch

OstrichMaximum6485

Where did you get the '90% odds of a hike' figure? Without citing a specific source or market indicator, it feels like just a random number thrown out there. CME FedWatch or Bloomberg's WIRP would've been useful here, but you didn't mention them. Feels shaky.

TranzitBusRouteB

I’m not here to make the case for or against a rate hike, I just know that one’s expected, 89% chance on CME groups Fed Watch website

thekoonbear

Well you can get 10:1 odds on that in the heavily traded CME futures market

TheESportsGuy

CME tick data

WordsHappenedHere

The rate hike is priced in. CME probabilities are at 87% probability. The Fed always follows those probabilities when they get up above 60%. Not following them would shock the market and do more damage to the yield curve. Rates are going higher next week. The market has already spoken.

Travis---Beckmen

Trading in the real world is hilarious. Id buy cigarettes and sell em a buck a piece to the tweaker fiends at the park. Pick up their weed they drop on the ground and sell it back to them.  Damn, I would have made a killing scalping in the pits at the CME back in the 80s. 

theIndianFyre

CME Fedwatch tool puts hike chances at 86% as of today, CPI came in hotter, and PPI came in hotter too, its not looking good for holds

ga643953

What do you mean it's almost impossible for them to hike this month? CME Fedwatch is still at 85% hike.

WordsHappenedHere

Rate hike is already coming. CME probability is already over 70%. The Fed is raising rates next week. The market has already priced this in. What it’s probably pricing in now is the aftermath of that. Because once they start hiking it’s usually not one and done. It’s a cycle of hikes. And combined with Trump threats about “banning all trade”, it’s not good news for equities. Most likely more selling even before the FOMC decision.

pickle9977

It’s late stage capitalism bro, this is what happens when you deregulate everything and take a hand off approach to all markets. It’s gotten so bad the CME is actually pushing back against their regulators as the regulators try to force new products to market as a result of political patronage. Happens every time, it will sort itself out soon enough.

AccurateVariety3351

A lot of people look at CME purely as a bet on trading volume but the network effect around liquidity is what makes the business interesting to me

Delicious_Put_5857

so there's this thing called CME globex, where things like SR3, ES, ZT, ZN and CL trade. they are the real market. and all the nonsense u all talk about everyday is retarded and worthless.

Delicious_Put_5857

that isnt legal in the US, but the CME E-mini S&P 500 contracts are!

scotty9090

For #1, the CME website will be your best friend here. They have a lot of free educational content and it’s also useful (actually essential) to read through the contract specs for anything you are interested in trading. If you are just interested in /ES or /MES (the S&P500 e-mini & micro respectively) then things are pretty straightforward since they are cash settled. Ensure you understand the leverage and contract sizing since it is different than what you are used to in the stock market. Options on futures are more limited than options on indexes/stocks so you won’t always have the same selection of expiry’s. Also useful to understand terms like contango and backwardation and what they imply.

diefy7321

???? CME showing 58%

jasperCrow

Exactly my point. The CME will just change the odds of a hike to manipulate the price of equities in the short term.

SteakEater137

*The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield last traded around 4.75%, seeing declines after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’d be “*[*inclined to support*](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/fed-governor-waller-indicates-he-will-support-holding-rates-steady-at-september-meeting.html)*” holding rates steady barring any surprises in upcoming inflation data.* *Bets among fed funds futures traders that the central bank would raise rates in a couple weeks fell to 50.4% after his statement, according to the* [*CME FedWatch tool*](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)*. That’s down from 63.2% a day ago.* ...is this really the origin of this pump LOL

DueCryptographer4907

58% chance (its currently 66.4%) is on CME fed watchtool which is using the pricing of futures contracts for fed funds rate. So all the banks, hedge funds, and financial institutions are putting real money in contracts to hedge the current 66.4% chance of a rate hike. If you are completely sure that this is fake from wall st, you can buy futures contracts and steal money from contract sellers very easily. CME Fed Watchtool to see the current rates from the chicago mercantile exchange

No_Presentation9490

its just algorithmically correlated to CME rates futures since forever. when stocks and gold diverge with stocks declining while gold breaks out you get the united states starting shit to pump the usd back up via jacking up dollar (oil) demand. aka iran

yrrag1970

Inflation is sticky and fed will probably raise .25 right before the midterms. Hermoose is no longer affecting the market, we have hit ATH’s during it. CME is predicting a 57% chance of a hike. The BS he announced yesterday will take almost 10 years to rebuilt Venezuelas oil fields. Price per barrel is under 90, even if everything chills it will take months for the flow of oil to return. Canada is not relevant to anything, their economy is too small, it’s just noise on the news.

All_YourBase

The 60% number is from CME FedWatch. Fed funds futures pricing. Reuters also reported the same 35% to 60% number. Marketwatch showed 35.9% moving up to 57.4%

Scary-Oven8260

Same thing when people said younger generation are using bitcoin, stable coin, prediction contract, while I just bought more V, MA, CME, ICE this year

vandalizethethief

Hey man, just go look at this website. I would never share this filth unless it was surprise. owned by SoFi who is like an abusive bank. First, it’s “check out my high interest saving account”. Then it was don’t you want to pay me $120 a year for access to that interest? What, hell no. Then you offer me 1% match on taxable accounts now it’s 2% percent but it’s given up front so they have horrible clawbacks. I had no idea and deposited $10k to buy automates, mainly CAIE and CAGE plus a little bit of long term bonds that I figure if they go tits up then I will be worried about looters not my portfolio. Don’t sign up for anything just look at what AI trading is good at it and all great traders are good at it because it works quickly but this is more established strategies you can copy and adapt. Basically, you want money or to be famous on some The drawdowns suck though but stick to the tried and true quant models https://www.composer.trade I also called out Hyperliquid and PURR months ago and mentioned them by name in a NASDAQ goes to 23/7 or whatever. It got an insane amount of upvotes but I said “because of Hyperliquid”. Now look at these bums over at the CME, CBOE and NASDAQ. Scared shitless of perps. Faster, less fees, better design and now they can’t have their fees because as a token holder you basically get 99% of Hyperliquid’s revenue of fees through 24/7 buybacks. We profit, they profit and it’s the most share/token holder company I’ve come across in a while. That is their selling point. No VC money, 11 guys, all geniuses at HFT and MM at Citadel just bootstrapped. It blew up overnight and then rode the crypto Trump boom but set itself apart when it took over oil trading with crude and Brent futures built into a perp, 24/7. No one wants to get fucked by Trump on a Friday. Turns out you don’t have to & quickly oil futures opened at Huperliquids perp pricing for Brent and crude. They did a great job on trading the pre-IPO of CXMT (biggest Chinese DRAM company) within a few percent which is much more accurate. Sigh….too much BTC ETH SOL HYPE trading, not enough sleep hence all the “caffeine” and rambling

kestrel_42

Gold futures options are CME, not OPRA, so they sit in a different dataset than everything named in here and most of these vendors do not carry them at all. ThetaData is equity and index options only. Databento carries the CME feed metered, and their cost endpoint will price your exact pull before you spend anything, which is worth doing before concluding it is expensive. CME sells its own history direct through DataMine

vandalizethethief

I think this is more a reaction to Hyperliquid and their 24/7 perpetual futures which currently combine the speed & execution of a centralized exchange with the benefits of defi (transparency & privacy). Hyperliquid did over $220 billion in perp volume in July. One example is oil traders hedging over weekends due to Friday news dumps & the pros noticing that the CL and Brent futures open at perp prices. They pose a huge existential threat to CBOE, NASDAQ, and CME in no rolling contracts, settlement, delivery etc…and the lowest fees around. Market share in futures, options, etc….are starting to show signs of weakness.

-sakuranbo

I think the biggest risk is probably the long futures position getting liquidated. While CME only needs you to post $300 margin, your broker might require more than $300. Say you have $1,000 cash in your account, then you have about $700 of buffer before your broker stops letting you hold the futures overnight. That would be a 70 bps move down from when you entered the futures. The other risk would be the hedge not staying perfect over time. You're likely not gonna have a clean neutral position, and your port may end up betting on rates rising/falling.

SPXQuantAlgo

Sigh… all my sources are underneath the other comment including CME itself. You ppl are really tiring…

SPXQuantAlgo

Am I though? “The term “naked option” refers to an options-focused position that is not hedged with stock. In that regard, naked options positions are viewed as “pure play” options positions.  For example, a [covered call position](https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/covered-call) involves selling a call option against an existing long stock position. That means the investor/trader owns enough stock against the short call(s) to “cover” any potential assignment.  On the other hand, if an investor/trader sells a call option, and does not own the underlying stock, that position would instead be referred to as a “naked” short call. **A naked option position may take the form of a long call, a short call, a long put, or a short put—all of which have clearly defined risk parameters**\*\*.” https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/naked-options And as per CME directly ““Naked long option positions are defined as long options…” https://www.cmegroup.com/company/membership/files/cme-group-clearing-membership-handbook.pdf?redirect=%2Fcompany%2Fmembership%2Ffiles%2FClearing-Membership-Handbook\_FINAL\_December-2009.pdf&utm\_source=chatgpt.com God I hate this sub

Objective-War-7458

Your premise is directionally correct, but fundamentally wrong. If you look at the last couple auctions for bonds, as mentioned through this thread once or twice, they've been healthy issues. Bid to cover, primary dealer, tails... All within expectations for GOOD auctions. This means there are enough buyers for current US debt. Period. Until this changes and it will most likely change suddenly. I'd argue that with yields hitting record highs, it was unsurprising that Bessent intervenned on the morning of the 20yr Bond auction (fresh, not a reissue) as the 20yr has had problems which bleed over into the stock market. This occurred on May 21, 2025 with what was an overall -2% drop in the S&P500. (Market was up +0.5% before closing down 1.5% on a 1.2 basis point increase) The May 21st auction had a tail increase of 1.2 basis points, which set a new record and sent the markets spiraling. Prior to yesterdays auction, record highs had been reached, so a new record high on the tail was all but guaranteed. Bessent defused that bomb in the AM. I bet you weren't thinking about the bomb he was trying to defuse or you would have mentioned it. So, he wasn't trying to gin up more demand, he was trying to control yields for a bond auction which has gone nuclear. And he was successful at that goal. The auction went fine, with a tail of a basis point or so, but no new record. Healthy bid to cover and low primary dealer take. The auction went fine and there are NO issues on the demand side. Where you are directionally correct are the yields hitting record highs and the severity of the structural problems they expose. In the past year, $3T-$4T has been added to the debt, we are getting close to tipping points for debt servicing vs governmental functioning. If you know "starve the beast" this could be the plan. However, I don't think this plan really was meant to happen during an active war with Iran that has exhausted our weapons stockpiles. They are very, very expensive to replace. And with oil prices working their way up, the SPR releases working their way down (for structural reasons the pumps can no longer be run fast), this is where "starve the beast" runs into real-world expensive problems that require gobs and gobs of money to solve. Which you can't do if you're starving the beast. Bessent, this morning, by indicating that he could increase the size of the bond repurchases (which are done at a discount, say 55%-70%, so not at par), pretty much indicated that the magazine is "empty". There's little to jowbone in the oil market because the SPR is constrained by physical limits on the pumps imposed by the drawdowns. Pull too fast when the SPR is low and you'll get oil/brine slurry which cavites the pump vanes literally tearing them apart. We're going to be restricted to 500k bpd draws, if we want to use the SPR. Haven't even gotten to the cavern integrity due to the brine solutions eroding the walls and support. It is actually possible for the SPR to collapse on us, rendering all the oil inaccessible, if we draw to fast. So, Bessent can't talk down the bond market, SPR is bottle-necked from draws. You're left with Presidential IEEPA authority which would crash the market if deployed PRIOR to extreme market events. You don't deploy the bazooka when the stock market is at record highs, it's sorta like the crash has to happen to grant the authority. Think of it like a nuclear bomb, which is topical, and stunningly accurate. It should be in response to another nuclear bomb and expressly not because you feel like it. A first use nuclear doctrine would destabilize the world quite quickly. Congress is divided. So they are off the board. The Fed will respond and not act pre-emptively. That would be very, very bad for presidential politics as it would be the president steering the fed through his actions, as opposed to the fed trying to optimize their dual mandate in response to political policy. Where does that leave us? We have a jawboned stock and oil market. Stock market is near record highs after a record run up - include a 5% week based on good corporate earnings and a peace deal which never came. The oil market is jawboned like crazy. Participation in the futures markets are a fraction of what they should be and crack spreads are at record highs - which means that the futures market for raw materials may be mispriced the market for intermediate and finished products is not. This could be exceptionally dangerous. Could. We don't know, hasn't happened before to my knowledge. My base expectation is when this corrects it will be violent. On the other hand, most futures are cash settled, not oil settled (outside of CME), so Brent/WTI need not experience a violent correction: there's no real oil to deliver. Just paper. And this difference may be (most likely is) what the administration is betting on. You can infinitely fake a fake market not dependent on deliverables. Does not help diesel at the pump, or LSFO in the bunker which reflect reality, so you'll be impacted even if the benchmarks are "faked". Where does this leave us? Good question. But not where you think we are. This can go on for quite some time. But Bessent is out of ammunition. Donzo. Trump is equally constrained. It could be days, it could still be weeks. The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It is my belief, however, that we hit tops. If Bessent is out of ammo, his magazine has run dry, and the jawboning is undone in hours not days, the Iran conflict (affecting oil) is functionally strategy-less, flailing and potentially ill-equipped to muster a response (which cedes the initiative to Iran), this sounds like tops. And, I do know a bit about the military - certainly more than most. I suspect we pulled out of the Korean exercises because we are unable to support them having previously moved many of the THAAD, Patriot and Naval assets to the Middle East. I don't know what else went, but with drawing prevents the embarrassment of showing up without pants and rifles (by this I mean batteries, jets and carrier strike groups) which would leak to the press, given the massive scale of the exercises. I'm gonna call tops. I don't know if this is going to be a crash or a tumble, but I haven't even gotten into private credit imploding and AI bonds/financing. All of this happening at the same time (and more) is a rare, rare, rare storm reminiscent of the GFC.

MeanTimeMeTime

So you may be mis reading me. SRW wheat futures are 6.99 per Bushel right now on CME. For etf WEAT to be 30 bucks wheat prices would only need to rally 20 percent to 8.40 per Bushel. Lastly the fertilizer piece is just 1 of the several points I make. It is far outweighed by the issues in the black sea. Also my understanding is wheat is a medium to high input crop since it gets fertilizer 2 timers per year. Once during fall planting and then again in spring for green up. So again literally just talking about a 20 to 40 percent price rally at the absolute max

MeanTimeMeTime

I get what you are saying - but we could easily see futures prices rise while the market stays in Contango. Also there are really only 3 options here. The WEAT ETF, CME Wheat futures or buying a farm. You suggesting a 4th option?

Juhkwan97

Yeah you might have to wait til they do another run of them. They came to Seattle last year but I didn't go. I'd suggest googling CBOE and CME to see what they offer. I know they do conferences but they might be for more industry level type people....

OsoPlato

Depending on what you are trading and the volume, you may want to consider getting an exchange membership to reduce costs. A broker's commission usually include the exchange fee as a significant part of the commission. If you lower that fee, your broker should lower the commission. For example, CME charges the broker $1.65 for a non-member gold option trade but charges only $0.80 if you are a member. Memberships are specific to what you are trading and can be leased for as low as $200 - $300 per month.

ManekenkaDaBudem

I bought Disney because at that time I didn't see much better opportunities, but that drastically changed and I still continued to hold. I should have bought more V, MA, RACE, BKNG or open positions is Moody's, ICE, CME, Abbott etc. 

ManekenkaDaBudem

I m literally this morning thinking of how much of Disney to trim. It's 4.6% of my portfolio. Bought year and a half ago at 91$, then added couple of times at around 112$. While I was holding, many better opportunities come and gone, and I didn't buy them because I was fully invested in things like Disney. I think the stock is not expensive and will go higher, but the problem is that some much better opportunities come and I can't react because Disney is long term investment. I can't get over for not seeing CME and ICE, two months ago. The reason I m missing such opportunities is constantly following stocks I already own while not being satisfied with. 

Scriptum_

Yes, absolutely: The CME Group (parent of COMEX) is launching AI Compute Futures.These contracts treat AI computing capacity (like GPU processing power) as a physical commodity. This allows companies to hedge volatile data center and processing costs exactly like they hedge oil or electricity.

jonnycoder4005

CME Group https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIJgms3O_lM&list=PLkJQh4MWlJksEOMuHaYxkK0-yHsrhS8kW

Apefriends

Um I’ve seen this before. Bitcoin futures CME 2017. Subsequently Bitcoin died

Cookie_Masher

It's a bit chicken and egg, no incentive to market make these single stock futures when volume is so low, and no volume because bad spreads. I also think CME were a bit late to the party because there are other alternative venues with volume in the big names, so most trading in those hours just happens there.

Sooperooser

CME really fell off

Smile961

Sourcing compute for large clients is hard, these are often 3-5 year contracts and the chips aren't even the biggest problem. Multiple parties started the idea of pricing compute and CME of course can't suffer the possibility of that revenue stream going somewhere else. The most interesting thing is whether you price for input or output. Not all chips are the same and use of them is irregular in the AI age. So when you rent what is essentially real estate you want to pay for what you use, and AI can get erratic during training and inference. Amp PBC started a promising solution on that front, pricing that output with a software solution. Hope it'll be here soon.

SignificanceLate7002

Wow. 32 single-team NHL ETFs — one for every NHL franchise. The SEC filing you supplied is the registration statement for that group Each ETF is designed to give investors exposure to the performance of a specific NHL team, rather than owning the team's stock—which generally isn't possible because almost all NHL teams are privately held. NHL team → CME team index → futures → Volatility Shares ETF So, for example, the Toronto product would give you economic exposure to an index measuring the Toronto Maple Leafs' on-ice performance rather than shares of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment.

hftrobo9285

“AI computing power is becoming a tradeable asset class as CME launches futures contracts” 🤡🤡🤡 send this shit market into the ground already

SteakEater137

**AI computing power is becoming a tradable asset class as CME launches futures contracts** Uh what the fuck is this stupid shit lmao This is such a clown market man

-sakuranbo

if CME's gonna have cryptocurrency futures, they should just go all the way and introduce weather gambling futures Chicago temperature futures or something. Tick value of 0.1℉ = $1

ihasanemail

TLDR - OP's vibe > actual numbers and analysis. This is easily among the top 5 dumbest threads on here. Dumber than the guy who got the CME face tattoo, at least he made money on the squeeze.

BarbellPadawan

It’s low fee, and transparent as well. 1) Equities totally free (there might be some exceptions on penny stocks or illiquid shit), 2) options 0.65 per contract (seems like you’re “wasting” money but I get price improvements with Schwab pretty consistently, which RH doesn’t do—if the MMs’ BA spread strikes through your limit order, Schwab will give you the better price, whereas RH will steal the arbitrage. I save way more per year on these price improvements than I pay on fees, plus I always add one penny to the a limit sell order or subtract a penny from the limit buy order so that—at least psychologically to me—the market is paying that fee), 3) Futures contracts and options on futures depend on the market specifically but it’s about a 0.50 commission to SCHW and about 2.25 to the CME—again I add or subtract a tick so that the market is “sort of” absorbing those fees completely. 4) Forex: no outright fees, the “fee” is taken out of the bid-ask spread. 5) no wire fees to and from brokerage accounts 6) their ETFs and mutual funds have extremely low expense ratios. Seriously don’t get RH. The arguments for the nice interface are true but it’s not a serious broker. If you need help or get in trouble, even if it’s a simple question, you won’t get help from RH, whereas Scwhab’s customer service is exceptional. If you do go with Schwab, having their investor checking account (which I’ve had for about 15 yrs) is amazing. No fees, and they reimburse ALL atm fees, no limits. So it’s never a problem getting cash abroad, or anywhere.

calebsurfs

Headlines like this make me wish I could buy calls on Citadel or Jane Street because they are going to make a killing this quarter. Currently holding CBOE and CME as maybe the next best thing though.

spacklock

I did the free trial of TV and when I activated it they sent me an offer for I think 30% off of annual membership. So I paid $125 for the essentials plan for the year, and I paid $84 for the annual CME group plan good for the year. So $209 total for both for the year.

spacklock

I did the free trial of TV and when I activated it they sent me an offer for I think 30% off of annual membership. So I paid $125 for the essentials plan for the year, and I paid $84 for the annual CME group plan good for the year. So $209 total for both for the year.

spacklock

You need to use ES1! / S&P 500 E-Mini Futures And it’s delayed by 10 minutes if you don’t get the CME Group market subscription https://preview.redd.it/rmc4axw8q8hh1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dca736d877a72b2c310a5916bf768ea19d3894ed

BrilliantArm5914

could have gone to CME Fedwatch Tool and seen that odds of Wednesday rate hike were in 30 to 35 percent range

BarbellPadawan

\-5% on CME open would be interesting

music_is_gud

It's already priced in. CME Fed watch priced in a 25bps hike by EOY for a while now

ten7four

Last update we're gonna get on CME fedwatch: 71.7% hold / 28.3% hike

ten7four

Probably doesn't update as often as polymarket (might lag 10-15 minutes behind) but [CME FedWatch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is arguably considered as close to an "official" benchmark as we'd get and they currently have it at 70.6%. So that checks out

fledgling66

No, I’m perfectly happy being overweight in CME, Berkshire, ADP, Eli Lilly, and RSP. Other than that it’s just Google and TSM, both of which I bought forever ago.

Successful_Car1670

You can’t just say 0 chance CME has it increasing on the hour almost 40% now

FunkyGrowMan

CME odds for this evening: No Change - 64.2% .25% raise - 35.8% Almost never see so much dispersion the day of. Market really doesn't know whats going to happen.

RuleSafe6767

Nq registering barely a scratch.. And only down 5% on the month. Plunge protection team working overtime. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME_MINI-NQ1!/?timeframe=6M

jonneh

I'm not mad, I'm surprised I mean, CME FedWatch tool is at 38% chance of a hike. It should be much higher if Citadel thinks it's likely to happen.

Soldacki

Where to buy CME futures of single stocks?

trader_dennis

$$$ for CME.

BruceStarcrest

CME has the odds at ~60% maintain ~40% hike.  I haven’t seen them miss yet.  The larger issue is what they say about the future.  https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

IlIlIlllIlIll

CME CEO shook their magic 8 ball a buncha times and yeah, looks like 31.5%

vandalizethethief

No, the CME is worried bc Hyperliquid is 24/7 and can do 200,000 transactions in less than a second. Someone built a light crude and Brent oil perp for it and it has become very popular. It’s a very token holder friendly business with 99% of fees going into buying back coins “burning them”. It’s written into the protocol and can’t be changed by vote. They also have PURR which trades on NASDAQ and is currently trading at 0.85 to Net Asset Value. Should be at minimum .9 to .95 like a CEF when you add in expenses for running the digital treasury instrument. Most of the coins are staked, earning 2.25% APY & the constant inflow of millions per day of fees has made HYPE one of the best performing coins YTD. Goldman sold all their XRP and SOL and bought a 3% stake in PURR. Real time data: https://defillama.com/protocol/hyperliquid https://hypestrat.xyz Could be huge, could lose its market dominance idk but I bought Purr into the close all the way to $6.19 (around 300 shares total plus covered calls). I own maybe $400 in HYPE directly as well. If I see institutional selling in 13f Q2 filings I might trim but it’s in the Russell 2000 so Vanguard and all the other big ETFs hold it.

spacegrab

CME saw Korean 5x ETFs and want in on the shenanigans