CME

css555

 >I predict the probability of a September rate cut to be between 40–60% Currently CME Fed Funds Futures are putting the probability of a September cut at 92%. So you can easily make some money.

Original-Guarantee23

You’re the emotional one here going off you’re feeling. We are telling you the market has in fact priced it in. CME fedwatch has it at a near certainty.

knightsone43

Dude it’s literally priced in. You can go look at CME rate cut futures.

MarginCalledManager

it appears a lot of literal regards don't actually know what the futures and futures market is; the main index futures at the ES NQ and YM for S&P, Nasdaq, and Down, they trade 6 p.m. eastern to 5 p.m. easter sunday through friday (closed from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. easter) they are underwritten by CME Group, and you can see everything about them here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities.html#overview

MarginCalledManager

yea, CME Group futures open everyday at 6 p.m. eastern sunday through friday and after being closed for 1 hour of settlemetn between 5 and 6 eastern, big dog

porchswingsecurity

CME group says 90%

greytoc

Yeah - Ibkr offers some broker-based order types for futures which are not available on CME. Schwab/ToS which I use doesn't do that. Thanks for the tips. I appreciate it.

OurNewestMember

Pretty sure you can submit these as a complete spread order on IBKR without getting a warning that the spread is not natively recognized. But, checking the CME docs.... This spread isn't listed. CME globex does support a "generic" user defined spread (although I'm not 100% if including the outrights in the spread still allows it to fall under this classification) Anyway, on other platforms, if I don't want to leg in manually, I'd probably use short dated options to get the outright contract (even picky platforms like TOS should let you do this if you pick all PM options that expire on the same day of the week) Obviously legging in like you're describing also works if your volatility opinion supports it. (Eg, submit a limit order for the synthetic short and have it trigger an aggressive buy limit on the outright, etc -- I typically do the less liquid product first, but I don't know if that's actually better for slippage)

greytoc

I'm curious about how you do this. Afaik - collars aren't a native CME supported order type so I'm guessing you have to leg into the position. Do you add the synthetic short first and then add long the futures contract? Or do you long the futures contract and then add the synthetic short?

Sweaty_Brother_34

The fact is that the CME has it at a 90% chance for a 25bp cut you gae ber

Dinkmers

I think there is an 87.4% chance of a rate cut in September. I don't think it's a good idea, and I do think it's going to be seen as a huge mistake in the future, but CME has been pretty dead on with their estimates and they are currently estimating that the Fed is going to be dum and cut rates.

rriggsco

The four coins that trade as futures on CME.

Big-block427

Who’s we? Are you long CME Fed funds futures now predicting a 90% chance of a cut? And, what’s the big deal about a 25% cut? The long end of the curve loves growth and the drop in short term rates is very agreeable to small and medium sized businesses, which would directly affect the teetering labor market. Try chilling.

TechTuna1200

Yeah, I don’t know how anybody can say there is no case for a small rate cut, when CME Group sets likelihood at 90% that is gonna happen. Is it guaranteed? No. But it’s likely. And saying there is no case is foolish, there is plenty of cases for it.

Poptart_Salad

Possibly, but he'll just have a tantrum when they don't actually do it. I'm looking at the CME FedWatch Tool and the fed funds futures are clearly indicating expectation of a rate cut. 87% chance. If it stays there and they don't deliver the market will be surprised in a negative way. And we haven't had a big volatility event like a fed surprise in a long time. But still 19 days to go so we'll see when it gets closer.

MatthewBlarng

Wiley Trading is a publisher with several decent books. Try Jack Schwager’s book on futures. Likely somewhere you can find it at a deep discount.  CME Group website has a good educational section and authoritative market data.  On YouTube: SMB Capital and Axia have good content. TopstepTV is a good watch for beginners, live futures trading with a mix of experts and amateurs. 

optimaleverage

Ok CME Fed Watch has the odds at 83%. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Odds makers are rarely that wrong.

PlentyOk2736

\*\*Don't have enough karma to post under r/options, so posting here\*\* Opened a IBKR account specifically to buy long-dated CL futures options. The futures options are 30% of the account's net liquidation value. For simplicity, let's say the net liquidation value is $100k, and the futures options are $30k. At present, the maintenance margin on the futures options position is equal to my cost basis, so $30k. Two questions: 1. If there was a market crash and the net liquidation value of my account fell below the maintenance margin, could I be margin-called? (I spoke to IBKR about this twice, and no one could give me a straight answer. In theory, I shouldn't be margin-called because unless the futures option is in-the-money, it can't convert to a futures position upon expiry, which would require margin. As confirmation, CME group's terms expressly state that no margin has be posted by the futures call option buyer.) Second question: 2. Let's say I get lucky and these futures options are worth, to pick a number out of a hat, 20x more than what I paid. Could I get margin-called in that case as well? Let's say I have 20 contracts, and oil shoots up to $130. There's a 1000 multiplier on each contract, so notional value is 20 contracts x $130 oil price x 1000 multiplier, which equals $2.6M. Since CL futures options convert to a future if not exercised beforehand, then IBKR will want, I assume, 5-12% of the notional value as collateral. That's $130,000 to $312,000 in collateral. But I only have $70k of cash + securities in the rest of the account. So the question is: won't they margin call me well before that, capping the upside, which the entire point of buying the futures options in the first place? Or will they count the value of the position (the $2.6MM of the futures/option position) toward the maintenance margin, in which case I wouldn't be margin-called unless oil prices fell to the point where the $2.6MM position fell to $130k to $312K. Would appreciate someone's help. I can't seem to get a straight answer anywhere and need 100% certainty, not 75%. I wish these options were as simple as the oil options ICE offers. Unfortunately ICE's oil options don't go out past 2026. Thanks, everyone, in advance.

fomoandyoloandnogrow

Invasion of Chicago is bearish. RIP CME

TechTuna1200

[https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) There is an 87% chance he will cut, according to CME Group. No guarantee, but it is likely there is going to be a small rate cut with what we know now.

Primary_Register_526

Bers getting their hopes up by falling for weekend crypto chicanery yet again! Orchestrating dips and liquidations while ETFs can't scoop it up, with boring futes, stocks near ATH's, and a Friday corn CME gap back near 117k? Its gonna get wild tomorrow morning

EvolvingDior

I trade crypto futes on CME. You're out of your depth here, my friend.

NoAvocado7971

CME is currently showing a 89% chance of 0.25 cut at next Sept meeting. They’ve been the most reliable source I’ve ever seen.

greytoc

In the wiki - there is a reading list which includes some good books on options - [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/readinglist#wiki\_options\_and\_derivatives](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/readinglist#wiki_options_and_derivatives) The wiki also has recommended videos - [https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/medialist/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/wiki/medialist/) \- the links to TastyTrade, CME, and CBOE will have some educational materials. For beginner materials - a good resource is the OIC education web site. The OIC or Options Industry Council is a service by the OCC whose members are the various option exchanges in the US like the NYSE and CBOE. Link here - [https://www.optionseducation.org/](https://www.optionseducation.org/) There are webinars that you can attend and free blog articles. The Getting Started section here - [https://www.optionseducation.org/optionsoverview/getting-started-with-options](https://www.optionseducation.org/optionsoverview/getting-started-with-options) is a great place to start. The CBOE which is the largest listed options exchange in the US provides free education at the Options Institute here - [https://www.cboe.com/optionsinstitute/](https://www.cboe.com/optionsinstitute/)

TechTuna1200

Gonna be a small cut, but many more cuts over the next 6-12 months are being forecasted. But it really depends on the job numbers. You can look up CME Group's forecast to get a sense of what rate cuts are being expected. What people have to keep in mind with the FED's dual mandate: Reccession > inflation

Dinkmers

So for how priced in this damn rate cut is, CME has not increased the possibility of a cut from 75%, which it was already at before today.

Rickyskeets69

SPX SPY or QQQ puts 6-12 months out, either that or go long CME

rriggsco

There are 4 cryptos that trade on CME: Bitcoin, Etherium, Solana and XRP. Each of those, along with Doge, Hedera, and Chainlink, are likely to rise. The other 3 because of institutional backing.

CheeseOnMyFingies

CME Fed Watch has said this before and gotten it wrong. You can read the article and see Powell's full statements in context. His answer to "will there be rate cuts" is about as evasive and non-commital as you can get. Powell is trustworthy on rate cuts, Trump is not. If Powell cuts rates, it will be because the data finally shows an indication that this is the correct course of action. Not because Trump is throwing a tantrum. That dumbfuck calls for rate cuts no matter what is happening.

UsernameIWontRegret

CME Fed Watch is placing a 90% probability on rate cuts. Thousands of professionals responsible for interpreting his words disagree with you.

Hoodie-Embiid

Chances of a September rate cut are now over 90% as per CME

SocraticGoats

CME is baking in a 25% chance of no sept rate cut now. That means I have a 1 in 4 chance of getting to see mango have a total meltdown in September. I'm so excited.

poginmydog

The flip side is that CME Fedwatch had only ever been wrong when predictions were extremely close (55% kind of close). It’s still 80%+ right now and if that number holds, your bet would be wrong. Of course you could always hedge your bets by placing smaller bets on no cut, hedging your risk until CPI numbers next month before the fed announcement.

Dinkmers

There is currently a 75% chance of a rate cut priced into the market, because we can all read CME's fedwatch. So the semblance of hope needs to be a certainty or the rate cut will be further priced out. IMO

DFW_BjornFree

Nah you're an idiot there are limitations in place.  The CME defines a daily range which people are allowed to trade futes inside of. Once price leaves the range you can't open a trade as a retail investor. 

Dinkmers

Chance of no rate cut on CME is now 26%. Just keeps going up every day lol.

Dinkmers

Chance of no rate cut on CME is now 26%. Just keeps going up every day lol.

Primary_Register_526

Why don't the bulls just change the CME odds of a rate cut back to 100%? Are they stupid?

SeaEnvironmental756

Wow with odds at 75% of a cut as per CME- you’ll make bank with your against the grain prediction if it works (which it won’t). 

BatteryAcid420_

No? It‘s 80% probability of a .25% rate drop (CME fed watch). The probability of the rate staying the same is increasing but it‘s still hihgly likely they will decrease.

Wowmuchrya

Pigs get slaughtered. Even the delusional retards being tracked with CME watch tool are taking back their 99% rate cut chance. Higher for longer, -10% tomorrow MINIMUM.

d33p7r0ubl3

FanDuel announced today they’re partnering with the CME to provide prediction markets for financial markets. Surprised it took 100 years for the re-legalization of bucket shops. This market is wild

cryptohorn

what in the casino is this "[FanDuel Teams Up With CME for Bets on Stocks and Commodities](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-20/fanduel-teams-up-with-cme-for-bets-on-stocks-and-commodities?srnd=homepage-americas)"

Asleep_Emphasis69

Dip is getting bought up now. Doing a small degenerate OTM play on TSLA/ETHA for 8/22 exp. with the thesis being a slightly dovish Powell and CME Fedwatch currently pricing in 82% chance of 50 bps cut. Powell is speaking in the morning Friday so I'm expecting a run-up tomorrow and then pump into expiry

15719901

CME Fedwatch still reports an 83% chance of a cut in September. If Powell hints that he's leaning toward no cut then we could legitimately see a 2% or 3% down day.

Asleep_Emphasis69

CME Fedwatch has 84% chance of a 50 bps rate cut in Sept.............it's happening whether you feel one way or another, regardless of Powell acting hawkish at J Hole

ga643953

Fed is data dependent, but everyone knows the data they love so much is collected using a really old methodology that doesn't fit the current era. That's why the revision happened and why before the revision, the market was pricing in a 32% chance of a cut in September then 90% after the revision said we only added 10k jobs. The market doesn't price in the cut because they want it. It's data-driven and can be influenced by Powell's every syllable. Otherwise CME would always show chance of getting a cut at 99%.

Poles_Pole_Vaults

CME changes a lot throughout the month though. With FOMC a month away, I would not be surprised to see the percentage to change pretty dramatically. Only argument I see towards the fed cutting is potential bias being introduced into the committee. But considering we all have the same data as Jpow, all I see is copium for a rate cut. PPI was pretty harsh last week, so I interpret that as the lag before inflation starts to hit as a result of tariffs. Businesses are seeing inflation and like it always does, costs will get passed to consumers.

Old-Cantaloupe-1711

RICK SANTELLI live from CME with a dildo up his ass says TREASURYS PLUMMETING

1UpUrBum

Does anybody know why the CME Fed watch tool is always wrong? https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Ever since the Fed started raising interest rates several years ago this thing always said they are going to lower them the next month. I have a hard time believing the Fed funds market participants are stupid. It must have something to do with their calculation method that creates some kind of bias. Does anybody know what's going on there?

etrec89

Good points. When you say “public metrics” are you referring to stuff like CME FedWatch and CBOE skew data? On the 3m skew gapping up (puts being bid up for tail hedges), do you usually trade that more as a directional/delta view, or also look to play the vega side with something like OTM call credit spreads?

Proof-Conference-765

Options on Spy are equivalent to /eS but / ES is leverage x 12 you should paper trade /ES on CME simulated account The chart is delayed so don't look at live data This is why you have so called guru making big trades Do that then try a prop firm

Proof-Conference-765

You need to learn on a paper account For options try Option play and futures use CME to paper trade

Pink_Squadron_Medic

Traders on the NYSE, NYME, NYBOT, CME, CBOT, CBOE floors will soon be required to pledge allegiance to Izrael before market opens 

Dinkmers

Every day that passes, the chance of rate cut on CME and poly market keeps lowering and chance of rate unchanged goes up. J-pow might dump a bucket of cold water on us at J-Hole.

throwingitanyway

bitcum successfully retracted to the CME close last friday

nonner101

Polymarket now at a \~25% chance of no rate change in September, while CME FedWatch has no cut at \~8%

zhouyu24

Fed is almost certainly cutting in Sep btw [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

zhouyu24

Lala land as the fed is almost certainly going to be cutting rates in sep? [FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

behindlife

$30 sounds cheap for a US exchange.. think of CME

ChaoticDad21

[FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) rate cut odds are still very high

Ok_Buddyyy

Using the CME FEDwatch tool on my gambling sub?

95Daphne

Pretty sure it’s actually CME lol that has gone to 100%, so it’s not just right-wing biased polling that is there. If you buy in Mr. Hawk Powell showing up Friday next week to destroy rate cut hopes, there are easy ways to bet for it. The biggest one would be short IWM, the others would involve bonds/SOFR (the latter being something you’d have to ask someone other than me about). I’m just not feeling it though.

EvolvingDior

BTC and ETH still the only coins we can discuss (rule 8) even though 2 others trade on CME and have dedicated ETFs.

Old_Concentrate_7053

CME Fedwatch futures… you know, the thing that’s predicted every single one of the Fed’s rate decisions?

Big-block427

Ah yeah, those dumb, ignorant Fed funds futures traders at CME should be getting their trading strategies from this bunch on Reddit. And, maybe Rick Reider from Blackrock should be getting his trading lessons here also. Throw in Josh Brown and they’d all instantly turn bearish and your hopes and dreams will come true…….oops, sorry I just woke up, had a friggin crazy dream. Oh, market marching higher, $$$$ yawn…….

hoopaholik91

I feel like there must be some arbitrage opportunity between the 0% chance CME Fedwatch has of rates staying the same in September and prediction markets at 12%

EvolvingDior

Why the hell is CME bright red today?

WhaleSmacker17

Why do the polymarket odds for rate cut not match the CME fedwatch odds? Are they stupid? Is there an arbitrage opportunity?

Big-block427

Sorry but the CME futures are now at 96% for a September cut.

Big-block427

CME Fed funds futures now are at 96% for a September cut.

Rude_Judgment7928

CME <> Fed. I'm long US equities, I'm fine if our drunken sailors want to continue. Cutting rates right now is reckless monetary policy. That's a fact.

Big-block427

CME Fed funds futures now at 96% for a September rate cut.

Sarcasm69

The CME fed watch is not always accurate. From Claude: The CME FedWatch tool has been incorrect in its predictions numerous times. The evidence shows several patterns of inaccuracy: **Notable Documented Failures:** A quantitative analysis found that in roughly 9 rate hikes over 2 years, the CME FedWatch Tool was “completely wrong 4 times,” approaching 50% incorrect predictions. Specific examples include: July 27, 2022 (0% prediction but the Fed DID raise rates), September 21, 2022 (54% predicting no change but they raised rates), November 2, 2022 (correctly predicted a hike but got the magnitude wrong - predicted 50bp with 0% for 25bp, but 25bp is what actually happened), and December 14, 2022 (0% predicted any change, but the Fed raised rates) . **Longer-term Forecasting Issues:** The FedWatch Tool’s accuracy tends to decline significantly for longer-term predictions. For example, back in March 2023, federal funds futures suggested the funds target would be lowered to around 4% by the end of the year, but instead, the Fed held the rate at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023 . **Market Expectation Volatility:** The tool’s predictions can change dramatically in short periods. For instance, a month before one meeting, bond traders were pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut at the March meeting, but a week later it was closer to 40%, and eventually dropped to less than 50% . **Why the Inaccuracy Occurs:** The FedWatch tool reflects market sentiment and trader expectations rather than actual Fed intentions. Experts note that “what they are is a snapshot of sentiment” and “they’re not very predictive” . The tool “may not be perfect, but it still can be a valuable mechanism offering investors a real-time, market-based window into ever-shifting expectations and sentiment” . Additionally, both traders and the Fed itself are “notoriously bad at predicting interest rate moves,” and even the Fed’s own dot plot projections often deviate significantly from actual policy decisions . While the FedWatch tool serves as a useful gauge of market sentiment, its track record shows it should be viewed as one indicator among many rather than a reliable predictor of Fed policy decisions.

Big-block427

So, you’re not sure? The Fed funds futures trader are pretty damn sure, and pretty damn smart. CME vs Redditors, my money is on the futures market.

Big-block427

You think Redditors are more tuned in, or are more savvy then the Fed funds futures traders at CME? My money is with the traders who have skin in the game, not this political BS that has overwhelmed Reddit.

Exciting-Bag-5445

But maybe the majority do. 93.9% probability of a rate cut from CME

Big-block427

You’re going to be proved wrong. CME futures now up to 80% chance of September cut.

jnas_19

On investing.com its showing different data than CME. Just realized it hasnt updated yet since its behind

kcyc2123

Crypto sells off intraday. CME gap on BTC back at 116k

Fine-Will

It's actually 11.1% according to CME FedWatch. If we get into the shitty situation where the Fed has to pick between stimulating the economy and fighting unemployment vs curbing inflation, they will pick the former.

dvdmovie1

> US$ is devaluating like crazy! So go buy gold, go buy energy companies trading cheaply, go buy ag names, go buy CME, etc. If one thinks inflation becomes a bigger issue again, what worked in 2022? Have a *portion* of your portfolio devoted to that. "Will it ever stop? " Dollar index has gone from 110 to 97. Post dot com bust, it went from about 120 in 2002 to 72 by 2008. Post dot com was the last time international stocks outperformed in the manner they have this year. "All gains on indices like SP500 are zero YTD if you correct it with currency valuation" So many people on here talked about going all to cash months ago but given their concerns about why one would have thought those concerns would extend to the currency. Maybe rather than 20 threads about every single tariff headline every day this sub should focus on idea generation for people to figure out some sort of asset allocation that is right for them if the dollar continues to head South.

ActuaryRelevant3981

Good post. I was surprised the aggregate probablity went as high as 87% according to CME. August is always a rollercoaster.

95Daphne

Nope, the CME futures are what swung this way. Sorry to say, but that jobs report was probably game changingly bad in regard to Fed actions. Another meh report with the bad revisions and it’ll either be Fed cuts or the market doing it for them in treasuries, just see how the PCE report and Jay Pow ended up both ignored. I hate Trump, but you even have Dem economists saying this.

notapersonaltrainer

- ~~Bitcoin’s worthless, no one will ever use it to buy anything, like a pizza.~~ - ~~It’s just a fad for geeks, exchanges like Mt. Gox will collapse and end it.~~ - ~~Once China bans it it will be over.~~ - ~~Small companies won’t waste money on Bitcoin.~~ - ~~No serious financial institution like the CME will touch Bitcoin futures.~~ - ~~Large companies won’t waste money on Bitcoin.~~ - ~~Payment processors like Paypal or Visa will never integrate Bitcoin.~~ - ~~No pension fund would go near something this volatile.~~ - ~~Bitcoin ETFs will never be approved by regulators.~~ - ~~Small countries will never make Bitcoin legal tender or hold reserves.~~ - ~~Developed sovereign funds investing in Bitcoin is pure fantasy.~~ - ~~No major bank will custody Bitcoin for clients.~~ - ~~More conservative bond allocators and insurers will never touch Bitcoin adjacent issuance.~~ - ~~The global dollar hegemon itself will never have an official Bitcoin stockpile or pass legislation supporting it.~~ - Okay but specifically the *Central Banks* of those countries will never buy it... <--- we are here

kananishino

CME futures/polymarket has 3 rate cuts at like 50% now

WickOfDeath

It will be a Potyemkin village. Shiny at first sight but it will fire back tenfold. The CME optin heatmap shows lot of puts being bought at 6240, that means traders already bet on a continuation of the thurssay and friday selloff.

BIGDADDYHANIN

Traders seem to agree. Following the report, the probability of a September rate cut surged to about 80%, up from just 38% the day prior,[ according to the CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html).

Last_Cod_998

This isn't a revision, this is fraud. >Revisions for May and June were larger than normal. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) “This is a gamechanger jobs report,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “The labor market is deteriorating quickly.” The weak report, including the dramatic revisions, could provide incentive for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when it next meets in September. Following the report, futures traders raised the odds of a cut at the meeting to 75.5%, up from 40% on Thursday, according to CME Group data. “This is the slowdown that we’ve been expecting,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “Firms are facing a very different cost structure. They need to adapt to a new cost structure, which means holding off on hiring.” The household survey, which is used to compile the unemployment rate, was even worse than the establishment survey of total payrolls gains. That showed a decline of 260,000 workers, with the participation rate edging down to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022. Average weeks unemployed jumped to 24.1, the highest level since April 2022, while the level of those out of work for more than 27 weeks climbed to 1.82 million, the most since December 2021 and about one-quarter of all the unemployed.

UCFSam

With the poor job numbers, chances of a .25bp cut have jumped up to 78% on the CME FedWatch tool. Also predicting .25 more in October and .25 more in December.

virtual_adam

This is the one to watch. CME FedWatxh went from 30% probability of a September cut yesterday to 75% this morning. Double cut is still at 0% but I have a feeling it’ll come into play with these numbers in the next few days This is exactly what Trump wanted to happen to the numbers, so it makes one think how they are “by chance” lining up so perfectly

dataCollector42069

The amount of times i paper handed MBT shorts on CME are killing me

directheated

I was going to reply how on earth are you a bag holder when it has gone nothing but up and basically at ATH, then I did a double take and saw that I Googled CME 😔

perceptive_AI

CME needs to make a Mini Ether futures , Micro Ether is 1/10th of an eth which is too small and ether futures is 50 eth which is too much

WickOfDeath

As the President and the Vice President (that dude guy wearing fox socks in the oval office) are immune to allegations for dresscode violations AND to insider trading allegation, and very obviously they did. Just my thinking... why dont the US just sell the president chair for next term for the highest bid? Like in the later Roman empire. Or Mongolia, where you can buy a seat in the "higher councel" for around $500K or a parliament seet for $100K. That's cheaper than a seat in the CME.

Small_Rip351

Correct on 2008. I had friends who worked as bank and insurance quants tell me in fall of 2007 that it was gonna be bad. That the housing market was gonna collapse and probably take down some banks. I believed it was a risk, but didn’t put my money on that side of the argument. Obviously I wish I had. A guy we knew who worked on the CME floor sold a bunch of the big S&P contracts and retired at 35. Same shit with covid. Had friends of friends whose countries went into total lockdown with mass hospitalizations before the panic (that manifested in the form of hoarding toilet paper for some reason) reached our shores. It was a matter of time before it hit us in the U.S. Shorting oil seemed obvious, but oil going negative due to storage capacity? I definitely didn’t foresee Peloton and Stitchfix or any of these other quarantine plays, which seem obvious in retrospect. Not sure what the next big shock will be, but if I had to guess, Treasury markets might be it. We can lower rates, but there’s a window of acceptability for risk for how low you can go. There will be a point where debt and debt service is a shock away from not being met, or at least foreign investors being concerned about it not being met.

maha420

I love how you use this instead of the CME fedwatch tool which is based on ZQ futures

sreten-jr

“Fed-funds futures reflected a 48% probability of a September cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, down from around 65% on Tuesday.” 48%, how the hell do you even accurately set that? 🤣

adventurecapitalist

[CME FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) \- The futures market says 99% chance of no change but \~ 57% chance of a cut at the next meeting, 40% chance of no cut, and the balance a 50bps cut. The press conference will be telling. 100% chance of Powell talking about price stability and full employment.

stocktwits

50bps rate cut might be extreme. CME FedWatch data shows only ~2% odds for a 50 bps cut in July (evven a 25 bps cut is seen as unlikely this month, with probabilities rising more strongly for September)