CME

Wrong_Dog_4337

It’s everything crypto aspires to be but it’s actually licensed by a western government. And soon Americans will have access to it via FBOT. replacement for CME and ICE. $100B easy. $1T id full digital title reaches maturity. 

AKdemy

If the strike and expiry are the same and only one contract is involved in the transaction, the total volume is two. The open interest is one and remains unchanged in the second transaction because the contract is simply passed on. See my other post here for a link to a detailed description. It focuses on the CME, but the general idea is the same either way. The last example there is conceptually similar to yours.

InternationalTop4495

I started my career as an FX options market maker working for a prop firm trading on the CME. But maybe you know something I don’t, Ken Griffin

jd192739

Thoughts? From ChatGPT: Here are the big issues in that post: 1. Misstated facts: It pins the 2022 nickel trade cancellations on LBMA; that was the LME. 2. Apples-to-oranges volume math: Compares Abaxx physically delivered LNG lots in one month to cash-settled JKM in a different month, then extrapolates market share. 3. Premature U.S. access claims: Treats CFTC FBOT approval as imminent/assumed rather than uncertain. 4. Heroic valuation comps: Benchmarks a pre-scale venue against CME/ICE/LSEG without adjusting for revenue, profitability, network effects, or moat. 5. Outcome-driven targets: “10x in 1–2 yrs, 50x in 5” with no operating model (ADV, fee rate, take rate, margin income, costs) to back it. 6. JKM displacement thesis unproven: Ignores liquidity inertia, bilateral habits, and incumbents’ ability to respond. 7. Gold “liquidity black hole” claim: No hard data on ADV, depth, spreads, deliveries, or vault participation to justify it. 8. Tech/regulatory leapfrogging: “Digital cheques / T+0 / tokenized stocks” glosses over legal opinions, counterparty adoption, and regulator comfort. 9. Collateral-on-water pilot: No evidence it’s in production (haircuts, margining, member usage); presented as a done deal. 10. TAM sleight of hand: “$42T MMF at 5 bps” assumes sweeping adoption and economics Abaxx may not win (custody, distribution, compliance). 11. Selective sources & bias: Heavy reliance on promotional videos/X threads; thin independent validation. 12. Missing risk plumbing: Little on default waterfall size, IM model, backstop capital, dilution risk, or operating burn/runway.

KissmySPAC

oh, i think it's pretty obvious what they will do. Prediction markets are just sheep following the herd. No different from the CME.

Sea-Judge5801

This one uses CME and prediction markets which are now pretty good indicators of cuts too

Dinkmers

I think most of the dippiness is due to CME only predicting a 67% chance of a December rate cut. Market had likely already priced it in and Jpow dumped some cold water on us. As more data comes in or Mr Market gets more frothy in the next 42 days, that rate cut will be more priced in as we go and the pump will inevitably continue. Or the opposite will happen, depending on the data.

mislysbb

It’s 68.5% on CME Fedwatch.

Turbulent_Respect214

I think CME had a 89% chance of a cut in December yesterday, so “far from guaranteed” is definitely not what the market was expecting

Putrid_Pollution3455

Technically yes but look at the CME watch tool where predictions are posted there’s nearly a 100% chance of .25% cuts

dataCollector42069

Markets pricing in a 99.9% chance of a cut today. CME's Fed Watch is nearly always right

drained_epstein

Isnt it filling the CME gap right now?

Wisertrader

Google CME CVOL, you will have to sign up with them, its free! I recommend searching YouTube on how to use CVOL

Wisertrader

There are daily videos on YT from CME group and they basically provide daily news updates across all futures, I have my own little channel but I avoid sharing it to not look like I am promoting anything 👍

MaterialNo6707

CME calls?

minisrikumar

try to get brokers requirements, its not like the CME where its clear and stated. Brokers are random and everchanging, total worthless info. You can see this in margin requirements and even approval for options trading lol, one is this one is that, no math, no rigor and it will be glorious once crypto ends these fools

SDirickson

As mentioned in another post, the CME requirements are the *minimum* restrictions the brokers must follow; almost all of them have additional rules, more-conservative numbers, etc. If you get the specifics from your broker, then you'll know what you need to follow.

minisrikumar

they just said I didn't have enough margin requirements and when they can set and change it at will, they could be right anytime, CME requirements are worthless I guess.

teetree55

CME rules are for the brokers to follow, who in turn imposes more strict rules for their customers (you) So you were in violation of your broker’s margin rules and they liquidated you, not the exchange

minisrikumar

I mean, I could look deep into the brokers rules, but I had \~2x the CME margin requirement for outright, I just want to be sure if there is even a path to get compensated before reading broker Terms Of Service novel which I am pretty sure lets them do whatever the f they want lol If there isn't a path, I will just take my loss and probably move brokers or just do Crypto full time, as crypto never has these bs margin debacles, they go till your net liq is 0 which is how it should be done imo not when I have mid 5+ figures still in the account

dataCollector42069

the MMs are already hedging on CME

wenxuan2

I always dislike corn going up over the weekend. It creates CME gaps that gets filled

dvdmovie1

Not a recommendation necessarily but lately I was buying something like CNQ at a 10x p/e and a 5.5% yield. It's not exciting and it's not without risk, but it's just a well-run energy company. Or something like CME, which offers four quarterly dividends and then a variable annual cash sweep dividend (cash above a certain level is paid out as a dividend.) People get into mREITs or BDCs and in some cases (IMHO) there is the question of what do I really own? What does the loan book of an mREIT really look like? What does a BDC really own? Not saying all of them are bad but a fair amount of these feel to me vehicles to attract yield chasers (and then some mREITs are externally managed, so a fee goes to external management every year.) Again, maybe just me/just IMHO I'd rather a 4-5% yield of something straightforward than a high single digit yield of something that's often doesn't seem entirely transparent. The other issue is that so many of these things that offer high single digit % yields don't outgrow the dividend so the price just gradually erodes over time. Nothing wrong with wanting income at all, just IMO there's a sort of "happy medium" that's maybe not high single digit % yields, but is perhaps more sustainable, the risks are clearer and you get a blend of medium income and some growth.

scm66

CME

stackin_neckbones

It was during the thinnest trading hours that the CME group decided to hammer the price with a massive sell order that was gauranteed to fill badly

Pineapplebites100

I read that on Friday **CME increased margin requirements** on gold trading. In the past similar has caused sell offs in gold and other precious metals.

greytoc

Gold and commodities in general don't have tickers. So - it's not standardized. If you want the spot price - easiest is to check your broker to see if spot Gold pricing is provlded. It's usually don't as a pair - Ie Gold vs some currency. You can look at a data aggregator like CNBC - [https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=) \- which provides Gold/USD pair. That said - many people use proxies - a common one is Gold futures which trade on the CME. The current active futures contract is /GC - but it's also not standardized - for example - on Yahoo - they use GC=F - [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F/) \- some places use \^GC. You can use a listed exchange fund like GLD - but the price is not spot gold price. There would be a divisor for the fund that you have to factor to get the spot price.

dataCollector42069

I invest in products I use. PM for Zyns. TLRY for weed. CME/ICE for futures trading

dataCollector42069

CME earnings before open. Feel like this is a boomer sleeper

No_Intention_6558

I use it constantly when there is an NFL game on. Surprised more aren't talking about CME group for this same reason which runs Hoods predictions.

kiwimancy

The futures I am most familiar with (CME in the US) are very efficient replacements for index funds when you need leverage, but they have large contract sizes and cash management which are hard to manage as a retail index investor. Futures are exactly how "the" All Weather fund is implemented, since it does not try to pick individual stocks and needs leverage to boost the allocation of lower risk assets like bonds. If you don't need leverage, as it appears you don't for your Permanent Portfolio, they wouldn't be a good replacement for low-expense index funds due to the above issues plus financing spreads and transaction costs and less favorable taxation (country-dependent of course). Even if you did want leverage, typically you would put your first ~90% of capital in outright assets and only get exposure above that via futures. No sense in paying financing spreads on your own capital. I am not sure what futures you are talking about. If they are not openly traded on a highly liquid market like CME/ICE, you would likely be incuring high bid/ask spreads and/or financing spreads.

EvolvingDior

It trades on CME for a reason. It's one of the big 4.

selfdestructduck

The prediction markets seem to be booming. Interested in CME group for this reason as well. HOODs current partner on prediction markets

HardradaTheKing

I buy some more CBOE en CME in between every next ratecut

dataCollector42069

bought some CME and ICE as these stocks are there to benefit from the craze in trading these days. Also, a sleeper stock SNEX - now the largest US FCM

Glittering_Soft_1531

Futures down. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ESW00:CME_EMINIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwim6YG376KQAxUCHTQIHb1EKHsQ3ecFegQIExAU

Consistent_Panda5891

CME stock has 2.5% dividend with a compounded more growth on for me more safe than an index. After all if there is crash index would tank more than that. CBOE also beats index. I would recommend you to have that when volatility is high. Individual companies is good (Rolls Royce, droneshield, mitsubishi heavy industries... more recently rare earth boom... Just need to watch news and you can easily get in train early before a high boom). There are others cyclical or opportunity, such as FNMA, US green stuff, also might be good Investments.

NefariousnessNo9643

NEW GUYS ----> Najarian brothers books. They wrote 2, if on budget get at least the newest one. Easy to understand and while they dumb it down for cnbc crowd on tv, the books themselves cover important territory. Andrew Keenes book is good too for newbs. Whatever happen to that guy anayways. I liked his energy in chicago pits You can also do all courses on OIC, CBOE, and OCC. Google search it, i watched all the videos and passed all the exams/quizzes yrs ago. Pretty sure it was all free. Do the very good courses free at TASTY trade learning center. Do both beginners & advanced. I highly recommend this. Overby - option playbook. 90% visuals and payoff diags but damn he crushed this book. I feel like this is a must own. Get hardcover Option alpha - free videos and courses IBKR campus - go to traders academy courses - free videos and quizzes Bloomberg market concepts - its a low cost course/ it has a decent section on options. If i ran a capital markets 101 class, I would make all freshmen do this before day 1. Just FYI Sang lucci - he was more active back in the day and his old you tube videos from 2013-15 on order flow sweeps and ATM weeklies on fangs are fun as heck to watch. I like his focus on tape and bc he was trained as a prop trader, he has good fun read on mkt microstructure. Think or swim/TDAM - free videos, covers need to knows @ learning center CME institute - free "all about options" course @ their learn center MID LEVEL ----> Spina/Sosnoff - tom a goat and chicago legend; concise book and zero fluff Mcmillan - get 5th edition of strategic investments. Consensus bible and weighs more than a cinderblock Natenberg - perennial favorite Hull - goat but dense ADVANCED/OTHER ANGLES ----> Mcmillan on options The option edge - very academic, but has its moments where it really loops in everyday stuff, like market makers and why Berkshire sells OTM puts. Content good - problem is they printed only paperback size 5 font so its basically unreadable without a magnifying glass. Podcasts - ally options playbook is the best (apple, spotify) Colin bennett - trading volatility / cool stuff in here that is not found elsewhere Jeff augen - he wrote 3 gems, all on amazon Trading option greeks - dan parsanelli. Well-scoped book How to Calculate option prices and their greeks - Ursone Intrinsic - mike yuen. Entire book about leaps on tech names during a bull cycle. For practical purposes, ch 5-10 are good and in plain language cover his actual trades; those looking for an actual trader perspective might enjoy this. Intelligent option investor - takes a value investor approach, covers lot of ground/key concepts Taleb - dynamic hedging - hard to find book / deep practical philosophical. This dude is smart!! Sinclair - he has 3 books i have yet to read BEAST MODE/FINAL THOUGHTS --> regarding exams...consider the CFA FRM CMT CFP CAIA CIPM CTP exams. All levels of all these exams touch the subject in some form or another. The first 2 treat it far more rigorously. CTP way too light a treatment, unfortunately. CMT focuses lot on vix. CFP covered the meat and potatoes better than i expected. Should you want the journal entries for how companies book stock comp/option awards, becker CPA far books really cover the must-knows. Pursue MBA - most top programs default to hull in the derivatives class & authors that both the FRM/CFA base their actual exams on. Adding this in case someone is looking at bschool/MSF down the road. Lastly, if looking for a gift idea or curious what it was like on the floor years ago, "trading pit hand signals" by carlson is one sweet as fk coffee-table book. Its true, the traders have seperate gestures for straddles and strangles. Best of luck! **quick update 4Q24 -** I realized CBOE has a free option calculator, it can be very useful during earnings season to adj theoretical price with different IV assumptions. OIC has one too. but i like the cboe one's simplicity - just an FYI!

Stateof10

[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/bAd34GPS/?symbol=CME\_MINI%3AES1%21](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/bAd34GPS/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21)

Consistent_Panda5891

CME US calls open in 30 min, let's see if it is worth sell them

dataCollector42069

Building a portfolio of good hedges like PM - people still need their zyns. CME - makes money from volatility. Any other good recommendations also like to hear some moonshots that arent the typical wsb shilled shit

fallout3king83

CME fed watch: 95% rate cut probability Cut rates with what data that's not available?

Additional-Engine402

You had me at “CME Fedwatch 94.6%”.Never thought I’d see someone use actual data for a $50k YOLO.

gamjatang111

well prediction markets are the future. Everyone wants that instant dopamine hit. Earlier CME and Fanduel announced a partner ship that will provide live betting on prices of things. I.E. will Gold hit x in 60 min Yes or No

AllCapNoBrake

CME Gap Up...Red @ Open!

AlxCds

The stats show the assets (https://imgur.com/gallery/2025-stats-as-of-q3-end-f408x2t ) but it’s basically about 14 symbols across the 7 CME futures assets. (Equities, currencies, metals, meats, treasuries, grains, energy). > These are the simple rules that I follow: - I only sell puts on futures - 20 delta and below (5 delta being the lowest I would go) - 55 DTE or closest to it - 50% TP - 100% SL on any position - Once the position has reached 50% of the total DTE, I close the position (should have reached 50% TP by then) - Try to balance all 7 asset classes so that no single asset class is too large

maqifrnswa

Quant nerd here: there's only one risk neutral probability density (fundamental theorem of asset pricing) so it's not an issue that everyone has a different way to calculate just like it's not an issue that there are different ways of calculating 10 time 6, the answer is the same. You can translate the RND from SPX, but it's much better to just use /ES options since the RFR is already baked into those options so there's no parameter to fudge there. And just because you can calculate the RND doesn't mean it's useful as a P-measure that a trader would care about. I, personally, like the CVOL which essentially parametrized the RND. CME publishes historical data of CVOL too. https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/cme-group-benchmark-administration/cme-group-volatility-indexes.html

wenxuan2

Corn pumping over weekend = CME gap

bearhunter429

#CME wants to get into sports betting and prediction markets. Now the cycle is complete. LMAO🤌

RTRC

What's hilarious is CME's current price is almost exactly the same today as it was in March when Robinhood first started offering prediction markets.

Optimal_Profile_9240

This is one of the most significant public signals that CME is pushing into the prediction-market / event contract space. They aim to leverage FanDuel’s customer base.

Optimal_Profile_9240

CME and FanDuel (a big sports betting / gaming company) announced a collaboration to build fully funded, event-based contracts with defined risk, where customers can take “yes/no” positions (for as little as $1) on event outcomes.

Optimal_Profile_9240

CME + FanDuel partnership to develop event-based contracts

sharkykid

Do you have more info on CME's gambling involvement and the 50 states legalization news?

Certain-Adagio-3032

CME and Healwell AI to the Moon !

Low_Minimum7339

CME printing tendies while I print margin calls. LET’S GOOOO

No_Intention_6558

I now spend my Sundays in the hood app betting nfl in their new "prediction markets". CME and HOOD take a 2 cent commission on every trade. With hundreds of millions being bet on each NFL game and companies like draft kings being limited to certain states I'm surprised more aren't talking about this.

DueCryptographer4907

CME is showing 100% chance for a rate cut at the next FOMC, its actually 99% for 25 bp and 1% for 50 after the numbers today

DrNSFW007

Fed Watch CME Group

No_Intention_6558

Anybody notice you can bet the NFL in HOOD app now? Looking at CME which runs HOODs prediction market.

Heavy-Situation-9346

Uh, CME lists quarterly expiry SPX e-mini futures for every quarter out to March 2030. Based on your reply, I’m guessing you did not know that.

1UpUrBum

CME has moved up in the last few days. Post your chart on r/technicalanalysis

RubiksPoint

I'd highly recommend knowing the answer to these sorts of questions *before* you start trading the options. You can find this information in the "specs" section on CME Group's site: [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/e-mini-nasdaq-100.contractSpecs.options.html#optionProductId=148](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/nasdaq/e-mini-nasdaq-100.contractSpecs.options.html#optionProductId=148)

dataCollector42069

pre open on CME shows us at 6698 right now. I need a hella gap down to fix my MSTR puts

Fletch71011

They're probably not worth reading at this point if I'm being honest. Trading changes so much year to year. My last one is definitely over 5 years old. They're on this handle. There will be a few applicable things to trading options (I know I answered a lot about finding and reading "kinks" in the spline which are still very relevant today), but there are better people than me now to learn from. The other thing is I haven't traded any equity options since 2015. I was primarily trading CME/CBOT commodities the last years of my career. Equity options are MUCH more complicated.

maqifrnswa

I get what you are saying, but you kind of didn't say what you meant. You said "as long as your broker offers CME you should be able to trade them." Some brokers give access to CME but not to every CME product. Just because your bike offers CME it doesn't mean you can trade platinum options. See IBKR, for example.

theblue38

Indeed, not every broker offers the entire range of CME products. PL futures are a small market, so it is very difficult to find a broker that offers all the options for them. So far, I have only found one broker. I wonder if there are more brokers out there.

theblue38

Indeed, not every broker offers the entire range of CME products. PL futures are a small market, so it is very difficult to find a broker that offers all the options for them. So far, I have only found one broker. I wonder if there are more brokers out there.

the_humeister

No, CME and broker are not the same thing. CME also offers bets on weather, but most brokers don't support that.

MrZwink

They're on CME so as long as your broker offers CME you should be able to trade them.

weasler7

My read on this is that better employment means the fed is less likely to cut rates in the next meeting. It's all about monetary policy... not sure what kind of "fundamentals" you are talking about. Just look at CME Fedwatch https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html .

Pu7plerain

US/China/Russia have missiles that can target satellites. I don’t think it’s a future war we should only be worried about… a major CME could be pretty devastating for our world

DueCryptographer4907

Dont think so but CME watchtool showed rate cut chance went up 2% today for the next meeting to 92%

Big_Vehicle_7808

Take a look here: [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets.html) Each broker may have slightly different names for the same futures. Above is the CME, another popular one is ICE, which has dollar index and softs(like coffee, cocoa etc). Look at the contract spec to see contract size, minimum price fluctuations etc. As how it works, very simple. You can either long or short. FX trades based on central bank policies mainly. Do your own research.

jonnycoder4005

I don't borrow any money. I do use leverage but it's built into the CME Futures that I trade. CME SPAN Margin is a performance bond that you put up money per position--not borrowing at all.

jwarsenal9

CME FedWatch

fantastic_carrot

Google is also directly in the trading game now. They’re building a data center to host CME’s trading infrastructure that will go live in a couple years.

weasler7

This cut has been priced in for a long time. Watch the CME Fed watch futures for indications on what the market thinks the Fed will do every 3 weeks. It’s those changes that move the market.

Smart-Customer7503

Google CME Fed calc. It shows 3 cuts this year and 3 next year atm

Glanzick_Reborn

It's not even a 90% chance of a rate cut. It's 90% chance of a 25 bp cut vs a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut. It's a 100% chance of cut on CME FedWatch lol

SPXQuantAlgo

CME fedwatch has not once been wrong with odds above 80%. Not ONCE. There is zero change that fed will maintain rates

daedalus_dance

>The largest ever Fed Funds futures block trade was executed this morning (84,000 contracts, equivalent to $3.5m per basis point), underscoring the significant risk transfer enabled by CME Group's deeply liquid markets. Okay, what if, 0.5% rate cut. Some rando making a 500k bet on polymarket and this CME tweet has me doin' insider trade side-eyes.

borrokalaria

Tomorrow we summon Satan himself. S&P to 6,666.66. We short it 20% while chanting in Latin, then reverse and YOLO calls so hard we melt the CME servers and moonshot to 7,777.77 by Christmas. I want Powell crying, CNBC speaking in tongues, and Jim Cramer riding a goat on live TV. Is that really too much to ask?

ActPowerful7001

There’s literally billions of dollars/ trillions of dollars in futures markets betting on rate cuts per CME FEDWATCH TOOL, but nope let’s forget all that🤡

MuchArtichoke3

CME fed watch shows 100% projection of cut (with 4% betting 50bps cut)

Smart-Ad-8116

The fed is to release 3 fed rate cuts this year, so if not tomorrow then when. The CME Fed watch group say its 98% chance of 400 to 425 bps tomorrow. Fed cuts 17 Sept 30 OCT 10 Dec

Puzzleheaded-Pass-64

Google "CME rate watch". It gives you the chances of a rate cut and the amount of rate cut. O.25 % over 90% priced in. The last the the fed wants to do is surprise the markets. These are telgraphed. This is from someone that works in mortgage banking and following this for 19 years. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

skilliard7

CME fedwatch has pretty much never been wrong the day before FOMC meeting. The federal reserve rarely surprises. >There needs to be 7/12 governors to vote for a cut. You tell me, considering only 2/12 voted for a cut last time, how they get the other 5 votes when the current board is neither hawkish nor dovish, but pragmatic. The new data is way more significant than you think. Before this data was amended, the federal reserve was adamant that the labor market is very strong. The new data suggests a labor market that is weakening significantly. It's not unreasonable to think a small cut is justified as a result of substantial labor market issues. Also, PPI DROPPED last month, which is another indicator that inflationary pressures are subsiding.

HappyRobot593

CME FedWatch has 95.9% prob of cut in Sept

Typical-Breakfast-17

Dude look up CME FED CALC. They literally show you exactly what bond markets expect to happen. There is 0% chance of them holding rates.

Typical-Breakfast-17

Bro look up CME FED CALC. There is 100% chance hes cutting

Toadally420

CME Fedwatch tool has been at a 100% chance at a rate cut since last week. There will 100% be a rate cut in September.

Primary_Register_526

CME odds have been 100% for basically a week now

Confident-Court2171

Ok - adding in the CME data. Most likely looks like 25 now, 25 in Oct, and 25 in Dec. but those odds could change - e.g a 50 tomorrow will change the odds in out months. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Big_Beach9969

They are cutting into a bull market (albeit slowing bull market). The CME FedWatch Tool has the cut at 100%. Could be wrong, but will stated the market, if they are wrong. Maybe there could be some debate around .25 vs .50, but they think a cut is certain. Calls it is.

fuck-crocs

All the DD here are retards asking ChatGPT to make a 3000 word essay and add pictures. The fuck is a CME https://preview.redd.it/s990f8til0pf1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=069d146c67cc5ccac50a704e9e5ac5073cbbabf1

slambooy

They won’t. It’s a 25 basis point cut. Does no one on this site look at the fed futures on CME website

IsaacVu404

Pretty rough, I don't like cut too, but never been in history that CME watch do 100% guarantee cut and Fed not follow :(

weasler7

75 BP cut by end of year according to CME fedwatch

IsaacVu404

Hey buddy, I'm not a fan of rate cut too. But in mordern history, when CME watch pricing 100% cut or hike, Jpow always follow it, never in history that he goes again, so I'm not sure. JPOW said they don't want to surprise the market and be unpredictable too. Again, I don't like the cut plan, but let's say they hold => Fed will lose credit and cause financial shock.