CME

adventurecapitalist

Yesterday the fed funds futures markets were saying we had a 23% chance of a rate cut at the next fed meeting. Today we have a 5% chance of a cut. [CME FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html)

OsoPlato

1. I'll pm you about that. 2. EOM's are probably best but weeklys are equally valid. Even though they are called weekly options, some are listed for expiration dates several years from now so you have a lot of maturity dates to choose from. I haven't checked lately but boxes were frequently traded on CME light crude options too. As long as the options are european, the type of underlying future doesn't really matter. 3. I'd try trading boxes which are currently being quoted rather than guessing at strikes and dates. Looking at changes in daily open interest can give you a clue about what boxes have probably been trading. For example the July EOM 100 calls, 100 puts, 10100 calls and 10100 puts all show volume of 20 contracts yesterday. I'd bet that was a $10M box trade in July EOM 100-10100 ($500k per box).

dip-the-buy

VIX is calculated and quoted 1 hour before the US *premarket* starts. Which is still far cry from covering SPX options GTH, but not as dumb as you picture. The lack of standardized ~around-the-clock volatility index sucks. For example, CME has a family of CVOL indexes on their futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/cme-group-benchmark-administration/cme-group-volatility-indexes.html , but they smartly omit one for the ES futures. Either to avoid IP fight with CBOE, or because they like to keep us in the dark.

kenkwang

First, thank you for your time in answering everyone’s questions. It seems that your trading strategy is quite similar to TastyTrade’s methodology. Is that a fair statement to say? If so, I would assume that their resources are just as good as CME and others? Second, appreciate the repeated statement about risk management as a key factor. Third, it seems that you are routinely beating the SPY every year. Congrats! For us, if we can’t then we should be buying the SPY ETF instead? Thoughts? Thanks again.

Ultimus_Omegus

I explained it in a couple replies: 1) Using ToS Iv Percentile 2) Using the various Vix’s. Lot of commodities have Vix’s and so do some stocks. There was a day too when the futures had Vix’s until CME and Cboe’s partnership ended. I learned a lot from watching those 3) Charting the premium of the option itself. Majority don’t know you can pull up the chart of the specific option and see what its been trading at. 4) Some of it is experience too. When you trade long enough and have watched products you know when something is high. IE feb 2018 in ES futures options ATM for 6 hour duration were over 100 points. I have traded ES so much I can look at the option pricing and typically know.

SpaceCatVII

I was looking at CME FedWatch, and now reddit giving me ads for CME Suspicious

jonnycoder4005

Is the SPX trying to compete with /ES for options volume? Outside of the difference in settlement... I fail to see why this is even a thing. Will the SPX start to track outside of normal market hours like /ES does? Is there some beef between the CME and the Cboe that we don't know about. Further spreading out liquidity among SPX and /ES widens the bid-ask spread and only benefits the HFTs and other market making firms that make money between the spreads--hurting all traders, retail and institutional. The move to every day expirations (< 35DTE) in both SPX and /ES has already increased slippage and increased bid-ask spreads, albeit by a small amount. What is the true purpose here?

dvdmovie1

"Every single time there is a recovery from a major economic shock/market sell-off, the same thing happens; people react with the same credulity, and believe the market is ignoring the fundamentals. Throughout the substantial 2009 market recovery from the GFC lows, there was widespread skepticism about the durability of the rally. Didn't people know that the economy is in a mess and it is going to take years to recover from it? Yes, they did, and that was the whole problem. It was no longer an unknown unknown. The economy contracted throughout 2009 and unemployment continued to rise, and yet stocks continued to rally, not only through 2009, but for the next decade." (https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2020/05/coronavirus-update-from-unknown-unknown.html) Over the years, I've gotten better at focusing less on news headlines and really focusing entirely finding well-run companies that I think are relevant and often part of a compelling longer-term growth theme (and most of the last 5 years has been an absolutely fantastic time for thematic investing - the industrial/utility/energy data center thesis ("non tech AI beneficiaries") has been tremendous. European defense this year. If a mountain of money is going to be spent on something - whether it's data centers or european defense - that can often overcome headlines (look at something like Rheinmetall that just kept going higher despite all the tariff noise.) If you do that and you do it reasonably well (and I don't always, I'm certainly wrong at times but I try to learn from it rather than blame shorts or who/whatever), things tend to work themselves out over time. If your investing time horizon is the next week or day or hour, then you might dump a great company before the thesis truly plays out or you might not take advantage of opportunities at all. I was buying in March 2020 when the CNN Fear and Greed indicator was like 1 or 2 and the VIX was like 80 or whatever it was thinking that there couldn't be that much more downside and I'd be happy in a year or two. I was happy in a month or two. In April of this year with Fear/Greed at 3, I was buying (not as much as 2020 but buying) with the same thought. And again, in a month or two I'm pretty happy. In both of those cases, had the recovery been much more gradual over the course of a year... I would have been fine with that. This isn't dunking on people, this isn't being whatever. It's simply saying that for me, if I see the market down 20% or more and CNN Fear/Greed looking like it's going to go to negative numbers (among other indicators - AAII Bull/Bear was at one of the lowest points ever, etc) I'm buying and I'm probably dialing back lower risk names for some higher risk names. It worked in December 2018, it worked in March 2020 and it worked in April 2025. Maybe it won't work the next time the market tanks, but if that's the case I'll figure it out - I love markets, I love waking up and there's a ton of new shit to process and figure out. Not always going to be fun, not always going to be great days/weeks/months but it's always rewarding when you put in a lot of time researching a company/structuring investments in a theme/trying to benefit from a volatile market (market was volatile this year and CME and other exchanges were talking about record business, so even in a market like March/April, there's always a company benefitting) and it works out.

Wowmuchrya

Powell literally said he is bot cutting rates yet CME fed watch retards increased July chance 6% yesterday. Delusion.

dvdmovie1

The %'s are yields. The issue with dividend investing is that dividends are taxed and they come out of the price. Yes, you get money every quarter or every month but too many people imo have sort of elevated the idea of dividends a bit too much - it's not "free money." Additionally, there are often products that have a high yield for the sake of high yield because people think more yield = good ("yield chasing.") If you have a product that cannot outgrow the yield, it's just going to be a gradual share price erosion over time. Most of the mREIT (mortgage REIT) asset class is an example of this. IMO, if you're owning stock that pays a dividend, it should always be a focus first on - "is this a good business?" If it's not a good business, how is it going to sustain the dividend over time? Is an income fund a well-managed fund? If not, then you're just buying dividends for the sake of dividends. I think if you're an older person, income oriented investing is absolutely a good thing. If you're a younger person, I think having an entire portfolio focused on income is not something I'd recommend. Having some selected dividend stocks/value as style diversification rather than simply an entire portfolio of aggressive growth is not a bad idea - too many people think that money can only be made in sleek growth which leads to opportunities for things that are boring on the surface, such as the independent power producers, which I talked about in early 2024 as an alternative way to play AI. Or CME as a beneficiary of market volatility this year. Owning townhomes/being a landlord is a very difficult task but if you can do that well (and have the capital at this point to pursue that) then it's certainly an option. I do think that the concern imo is trying to find a market where housing is actually reasonably priced and where the market itself has sustainable growth prospects. You can own REITs as a way to own various kinds of real estate but I don't know that there's tons of great REITs out there and you still have to prioritize "is this a good business at a reasonable price?" REIT funds are difficult because there's tons of different kinds of REITs - malls, apartments, offices, billboards, data centers, etc - and at any given time it often seems like some are doing well and some are not. " and how long will it be to see a return" Depends on the market and what you're buying for anything. You're going to have investments where you buy something and it just heads down initially. You're going to have investments that don't work out at all. You're going to have things that do okay. You're going to have things that do well. You're going to make mistakes (everyone does, investing is a continual learning experience.) You just have to continue to learn from what does and doesn't work, refine your approach and bring up your win % over time. It's not easy and if you find yourself thinking "this is easy" then that's the time to be concerned. The best buys are often ones where you didn't feel good at the time doing it - periods like a couple of months ago when the market was tanking. The opportunities are when the market is shitty. Too many people go, "I'll wait until everything is calm" but do that and the opportunities will largely be gone. Feel free to ask any questions. Good luck.

Foreign-Coconut3500

who what where? CME? i havent heard anything about this. ima look into this.

Pikajeeew

It sure can. Anyone speaking in absolutes like OP is full of shit. Especially more egregious when he uses the fed now and “CME rate cut predictor” tool as his support lmao. The CME tool is just doing math anyone with a 4th grade education can do. It uses fed fund futures to imply what the market is pricing rates at. But dudes like OP have their mind blown and then think they’re the next buffet.

Tripleawge

A recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP and the largest one in Europe [has been in one](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-faces-third-possible-year-contraction-amid-us-tariffs-analysts-say-2025-04-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) meanwhile every US economic indicator has declined (I don’t really care what your prediction is as that’s functionally meaningless) all the while the CME Prediction tool was completely wrong (so in other words worthless) considering it accurately predicted 1/9 rate cuts that actually happened last year alone smfh

Even_Advertising_519

Market makers had a set up and we were looking for a bottom around 103k to recover CME gap. Crypto is reflective of the stock market when the market is closed. This is not getting bought up before Monday lol.

TheDiligentDog

Sure, but do you think CME stock is opening or the futures market?

theverybigapple

CME is also a stock as well

BarbellPadawan

#Can’t wait until CME open!

DumbbellPadawan

Might be 90. When Russia invaded Ukraine, shit was like 110ish on Friday close at 130 at CME open

murphinate

CL or /CL options, depending on your platform [Crude Oil Option Quotes - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.options.html#optionProductId=190)

the0dtetrader

I forgot to notice in the post, Hope CME ES futures is better for next trade, but need margin account.

G4M35

> I’m thinking Coinbase (COIN) and Circle CRCL I have both, regardless of the GENIUS Act, they are good long term plays. > Robinhood : smoother USDC transfers could boost trading volume and adoption I have that too, similar reasons. > CME Group (CME): clearer rules might drive more stablecoin derivatives flow IMO the impact to CME will be non material.

MarginCalledManager

Because that’s not the actual CME Group futures contracts and options. Get a real broker to view ES NQ and YM futures, or just go to CME Group’s website.

MarginCalledManager

They don’t have the actual CME group futures contracts.

MarginCalledManager

The CME group website.

css555

CME and stock exchanges are not the same thing.

DipSniper69

DEGIRO if u use the CME market you will be able to trade Spy, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 today. You also have CBO market. But that one is locked to normal trading hours.

BarbellPadawan

CME open tomorrow?

-medicalthrowaway-

The FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), often referred to as the "dot plot," released on June 18, 2025, suggests fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated. Here's why: * Shift in Projections: The March 2025 dot plot indicated that a majority of FOMC participants expected two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025. However, reports leading up to and after the June meeting indicate a shift. Many analysts were anticipating the June dot plot to show fewer cuts, potentially only one, or even none, for the remainder of 2025. * "Higher for Longer" Theme: The prevailing sentiment among Fed officials appears to be "higher for longer." This means they are comfortable maintaining current elevated interest rates for a longer period due to persistent inflation concerns and a relatively resilient economy. * Uncertainty and Inflation Risks: The Fed continues to express increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and remains concerned about inflation, especially given potential impacts from factors like tariffs and geopolitical events. This cautious stance makes them less inclined to cut rates aggressively. * Market Expectations: While market participants were pricing in a higher probability of at least two cuts earlier in the year (e.g., around 70% probability for two cuts in 2025 before the June meeting), the sentiment has shifted, with some analysts now expecting only one cut or even none. The CME FedWatch Tool also shows a near 100% likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady at the June meeting, and while a September cut is still a possibility (around 70% odds according to some sources), the overall outlook for the number of cuts in 2025 has diminished. In summary, the June 2025 FOMC projections, particularly the "dot plot," signal a more conservative approach to rate cuts for the remainder of the year, leaning towards fewer than what was previously expected. You can manage your Apps settings in Gemini Apps Activity.

CUbuffGuy

0% On CME fedwatch it's like 2%... but reality is it's 0%. People are looking at the dot plot not looking for a cut.

adventurecapitalist

[CME FedWatch - CME Group](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) 0.1% chance that Jpow cuts rates. 99.9% chance taco tweets in all caps calling him names.

daedalus_dance

[CME FedWatch ](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)rates chance of a rate cut at 0.1%. 99.9% no change.

Affectionate-Idea690

Already priced in see CME FED perverts watch tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Small_Rip351

I loaded up on a shit-ton of near term SPY and QQQ puts the afternoon before “liberation day”. A lot of these were cheap “lottery ticket” strikes that I didn’t really expect to print, but I opted for sheer quantity over more realistically probable strikes, because it was a lotto trade. I thought the administration was going to announce something dumb, but also thought it was pretty priced-in. Holy shit, the whole thing was way worse than everyone thought. I laid in bed looking at the CME equity index futures charts just wishing it could be 9:30 ET already.

Yossarian_Matrix

Hi OP, great question. The US financial markets are split between SEC regulated securities (stocks, equity options) and CFTC regulated futures (which includes interest rate or commodity options on futures). VIX Options trade on Cboe. It's an upside down market, where buying calls is bearish, because you are betting vol will escalate, and selling puts is bullish, because you think vol will go down. VIX Futures trade at Cboe Futures Exchange (CFE). You need to through a futures broker, which it sounds like you have. In 2024, Cboe introduced Options on VIX Futures at CFE, to allow certain commodity only funds and clients the ability to trade options, but the product has not really taken off and no-one really trades it, so the reason you can't trade options on VIX Futures is no-one else does, so the market is illiquid (check out open interest on options on VIX Futures).  As a retail investor there is very little need to trade volatility using the VIX. People who trade VIX Options and Futures are typically institutions tail hedging. Instead, trading SPY, SPX or QQQ options and S&P micro-e-mini CME Futures can achieve 98% of the same outcomes, with way less hassle.

Riptide34

The CME (U.S.) S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures start trading at 6:00 P.M. Eastern on Sunday evening. That is about the earliest indication you can get. Some currencies start trading before that, which can possibly give some insight, but the futures open is what I'm looking at.

ILoveWesternCenter

CME fedwatch tool

adamantiumtrader

That's not how futures contracts work... go educate your self on cme peso fx futures... Mexican Peso Futures Quotes - CME Group https://share.google/WTm7B6NO1jThNBKQ3

Immediate-Sky9959

It's enjoyable to see how the other half thinks and trying to understand why they have convinced themselves that living a abysmally pitiful life is OK. While reading your jibberish, I'm on CME and pondering a plv5 vs ZNU5 swap .

RagingBearBull

We really need to go back to the Golden age of American. Part of this is destroying all the computers in the stocks and making people buy and sell stocks in person. Also corded phones in the corner of the NSYE and the Treasury department and the CME, CBOE floors should be mandatory. We need to go back.

Mr-FD

They've got CME futures now

Square-Onion-1825

Ah, so you just bought your first yen futures contract on Robinhood. Bold move. No idea what you're doing? Perfect—you're halfway to becoming a professional trader. Here’s how you exit: Hit the big orange **“Trade”** button. Choose **“Sell to Close.”** That tells Robinhood, “I’ve seen enough—I want out before my margin account starts writing passive-aggressive emails.” But—and this is important—**according to ancient, unwritten futures law**, you can *only* close the position cleanly on **Tuesdays**. Why? No one knows. Something about liquidity, lunar cycles, and a disgruntled CME intern named Kyle. If you try to close it on any other day, you risk being physically settled in yen and waking up in a karaoke bar explaining tick values to customs.

OurNewestMember

>IBKR doesn't have FX options In addition to spot forex, IBKR has those major pair ETFs and options you mentioned, currency index options (eg, XDA, XDC, etc) and CME physically-settled forex futures and futures options. What is missing? >90% probability price will go to X during 2 days. 95% probability price will go to X during 7 days. This inherently sounds like a volatility opinion which makes sense with options. Example idea for this scenario: * 2-3 DTE debit vertical spreads with long strike at X-1 (1 strike closer to spot/forward) and short strike at X * This lets you buy directional exposure between spot and X in advance and at a notional discount -- things you can't really do in spot or delta-1 forward markets * Unfortunately there are limited options strikes and expirations for currencies, so you may need longer durations

No_Feeling920

Rolling a contract is a trader/investor lingo and concept. It comes from people using the derivatives marketplaces (wall street bankers, commodity traders and such), rather than the people designing, building and operating them (ICE, CME, etc. employees). From the technical/technological point of view of how derivatives exchanges work, "rolling" is just a sequence of selling one contract and buying another (different) one - unless both operations are put into a multi-leg strategy and traded atomically (all-or-nothing), which might offer some fee savings (though it really depends on the particular retail broker, whether/how they pass on these savings to their retail customers).

Immediate-Sky9959

HEY Genius-you may want to watch CME Block Trades today in SOFR and STIRs, you may learn something. But then, you made 23%, so you are the MAN.

EvolvingDior

CME really wants me to buy gold futes. Advertising heavily here.

Wiscoguy1982

Shit. Better buy some more CME

ModeForJoe

I’m working with CME to introduce and sell Tweet/X/Truth Puts.. anyone interested? Holding over weekends costs extra, obviously.

jonnycoder4005

I love this question. I'm about to share with you a little experiment in leverage.. Starting this year, I decided to see how far I could take /MES options. That's the Micro E-mini SP500 futures, current notional equivalent to 50 shares of SPY. I sold a 20 delta strangle and managed it through a 50 VIX. I was down $140 on that position when I decided to close it (made enough on other trades). Using about 85% of the $5k, I was able to control around $26k worth of SP500 exposure via 6x leverage. $26k notional / $4k actual cash = 6x. Only possible via CME SPAN Margin https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/micro-e-mini-sandp-500.html https://www.cmegroup.com/solutions/risk-management/performance-bonds-margins/span-methodology-overview.html Currently +11% YTD in that account.

reaper527

> I do not understand Tesla or Apple very well and we're supposed to believe you have deep understanding of how CME group or Roper technologies works?

DumbbellPadawan

CME is trading right now Dogg. And it’ll open again at 3pm PST.

Various-Tangerine-88

Holiday today. I THINK CME is closed .

DumbbellPadawan

So bored. Bloomberg only doing re-runs. I’m going to mirror shine my Crocket and Jones then take a nap. Maybe CME open will be fun this evening.

css555

CME website says equities 6PM ET today.

vanisher_1

Currently new to the options world, finished CME course, now time for live experience, needed another market between features and options to catch more opportunities, been trading for 4 years :)

BarbellPadawan

When I used to drink, on my days off I would start cracking beers during CME daily break and be trading futes by the early evening with a healthy buzz. I don’t remember ever losing money though!

BarbellPadawan

I might short BTC futures when CME opens up this afternoon. Probably don’t have the 🅱️uying 🅿️ower though. I need more *money.*

BarbellPadawan

Gonna laugh my ass off if CME opens flat and stays like +/- 0.1% overnight and then there is another 50+ point rally. And I have short positions.

DC9B717Captain

What is your experience level? Have you ever traded options? Read any books or literature on options? (Start on Amazon or Google books, local library, etc.) Researched the web for general options information? Research should include Exchanges (e.g. CME, CBOE, etc.), Brokers (e.g. IBKR, tastytrade, Schwab) general financial websites (e.g. Investopedia, Barchart, etc.), Writers (e,g, Sosnick, Sears, Wu), etc. Look at Rule 8 here on this subreddit. While it is possible to trade 0DTE (zero days to expiation) successfully it requires some in-depth understanding the options markets in general. The only thing different with 0DTE options is that you are trading on the day the options expires but has been in existence for week or months in advance. That said, I do trade 0DTE SPXW options and make money at it but I didn't just start down that path at the git go. I've been trading options (mostly credit spreads) for years and moved to the SPXW weeklys a couple of years ago. SPXW options are different than SPX options (and SPX AM options). You need to know those kinds of differences. Ditto equity vs futures options. And a bunch more. Best

BarbellPadawan

Only 42 until CME open

BarbellPadawan

Was mountain biking… What happened after market close? Saw it was like +40 at close and then at CME close only +15 or so?

SPQR0027

Right now the CME FedWatch gives a 37.5% chance rates will be 50 bips lower by end of 2025.

Phylaras

Yea, but the CPI is calculated with substitutions, etc. It won't move as much as your actual experience suggests. From there, the most volatile elements will be stripped out to get core PCE. CME Fed Watch Tool suggests 2 Fed cuts this year now (with QT quietly ending somewhere in there). TL;DR CPI may not move that much ... and it may not matter given the tariff "reset "

dvdmovie1

Thanks! Definitely not the smartest person in the room, definitely get things wrong but I think what I have done is refined my approach enough over years that I can navigate good markets but almost more importantly, I can do a reasonably decent job navigating bad markets because I think my thought process in regards to investing has become increasingly automated/robotic. If the market is lousy, I could be upset or I can try to figure out what's working. Being upset that the market did what it did in recent months for the reasons it did is not wrong but how does it help me come up with ideas? IMO, like any other period of market stress - covid, 2018, etc - you want to understand what might work in the environment and have some sort of shopping list of what isn't working and where you want to buy it. You don't want to be caught up in the upset and be the person selling at the bottom, no matter what you feel about the reasons why the market is doing what it's doing. And I'm not going to get it all right, or ever be some sort of "absolute return" strategy, but in a difficult market can I manage to find enough that works to outperform? To me, it's about looking at the market and asking questions: "if the market is volatile or looks like it is heading towards volatility, who benefits?" CME is an example that is up 22% YTD - that's up 57% over the last 5 years so you have something that is a great company that was sort of out of favor over much of the last 5 years because it was a tech/growth driven market, but the level of volatility in the market in recent months resulted in new records for CME and they've had a good year. IMO, I have primarily been a growth investor for many years and heavily focused on themes, but I think people need to really expand their investable universe. Boring names can re-rate (look at VST, a company that was bankrupt, didn't do anything for years and then soared because of the AI energy demand theme) and there are going to be periods like the last few months where expanding one's universe to value - even if you are "renting" it for a while - might be useful to be able to highlight things that benefit (like CME or other exchange names, all of which have had a good year) or opportunities to be defensive with more cheaply valued names that lose less. There are opportunities outside the same couple of dozen popular growth names that are talked about at any given time. Reddit has always been to some degree about focus on what are the dozen or two most popular names at any given time, but it's gotten worse since covid. I think having that flexibility is increasingly important. We've had more than a decade where the same playbook (tech/growth) has worked well and maybe it continues, but when it's stopped working, people act as if the market is broken when often (energy in 2022, a number of different things in 2025) other things that haven't been working get the chance to work for a while during those periods. Over the years, I've tried to become familiar with many companies on at least a surface level. I love just researching companies for hours. I'll go through fund holdings and just go company by company for hours. If I have a broader idea/view on a theme, I want to always have potential names as an answer. I don't like to be starting off at square one - opportunities today seem to require people to be quicker than ever. The European defense stuff has worked throughout the year so far. Maybe today is the start of a correction in that as people switch even more fully back to risk on positioning. That doesn't mean that the theme is over. I own a number of things that didn't fare well in the volatility of recent months but that I added to and that have bounced/will continue to do well if the market does. I own some things that have done well throughout this period and some might continue to/but some might correct. Do I shift entirely to risk on beneficiaries? If not, how do I continue to allocate to the beneficiaries that have done well in recent months vs risk on beneficiaries? Things I ask myself. I talked about the concept of the middle earlier and that's far from scientific, but I think there is something certainly to the idea of not getting caught up in extremes. In 2020/21, people started going, "this time is different" - no, it wasn't. On the other extreme, if indicators as kind of basic as CNN Fear/Greed are looking like they're about to go to negative numbers, you don't want to be the person that is just not going to buy anything because they're sure the market is going far lower. It happened on here in March 2020 and it happened on here about five years later. This sub feels like it went from being fully bullish 4-6 months ago to "how could you want to buy one share of anything right now?" and I don't think either extreme does anyone any good. Again, not perfect by any means and have certainly been wrong. I'm very much of the belief that investing is a continual learning experience and continue to refine how I approach the markets but I do think that one thing that I've increasingly done well is to really be able to (even more important in markets like recent months) is filter out everything aside from what's working in this market and what are the opportunities in what's not? I have an approach that works for me and that I can stick with when markets are good and bad. Everyone's approach is going to be different and it's going to be refined over time and you will make mistakes and learn but broadly, I think having an approach that works for you when the market is good and (in a way, even more importantly) when it's shit is immensely helpful. If you can keep a clear view in a market like early 2020 or the last couple of months, that's immensely important and maybe more meaningful than people already give it credit for being.

WGx2

CME tamed BTC.

dvdmovie1

1) I think that the last 5 years have created unrealistic expectations for returns. Would be surprised if the next 5 years are as easy/lucrative as much of the last 5 have been. 2) Be flexible and understand that good returns don't just come from tech stocks. Anyone who thought this year, "who benefits from a more volatile market?" has done well in names like CME. I think too many people's investable universe is basically the same dozen or two popular names everyone else talks about and then when those things don't work they say the market is broken. There's always something working, there are times though where figuring out what that is just takes a bit more effort. Boring names can be re-rated in a hurry if they are relevant to a larger theme - you would have done better over the last couple of years in some of the IPPs (VST) or contractors (FIX, LMB) than you would have in a lot of tech stocks like Amazon, Google or Microsoft. 3) The market has become more and more "esclator up, elevator down" since Covid. You had two years (20/21) of "disruptive growth stocks only go up" (this included goofy/terrible companies, just because they were part of a popular theme.) Cathie Wood was called the next Warren Buffett and right before the top for the Ark funds, there was a Bloomberg article with fans calling her "money tree." People said this "time was different" - it was not and Cathie Wood happened to be in the right investing place at the right investing time. Don't get too caught up in hype, especially for things where they're not really going to be a thing for a long time (or things that will likely never be a thing: I saw people talking up "asteroid mining" in the bubble of 2020 and am seeing it again lately: it's a difficult business at best *on earth.*) IMO, look for businesses that solve common day-to-day issues for many people or improve upon a common service/product/issue. 4) Have an investment timeline beyond what happens to the stock in the next 15 minutes. I have been on Reddit for nearly 10 years and a post about "WHY IS MY STOCK CRATERING?" used to be someone wondering why their stock was down 10%. Now it's about why their stock is down 1%. There is a post on the front page about how much their parents holdings of NFLX/NVDA would be worth if they'd continued to hold and not sold years ago. That's years, I think a lot of people could see improvements and be less stressed by investing if they were not so intensely focused on micromanaging the very very short term. Down 1% should not even register as worth posting about imo. 5) Understand your risk tolerance. How many people sold everything at the bottom in the recent volatility? There will be opportunities to buy like about a month ago, but if you're overextended in your risk, you're going to be a seller in volatile markets too. Have a portion of your portfolio dedicated to some degree of stability. Solid, consistent companies that have delivered for shareholders over time. Have another portion of your portfolio for speculative growth. Too many people in 2020/21 were all speculative growth because "growth stocks only go up" - it works until it doesn't and then those people got obliterated in 2022. 2023/24 it happens again and then you have growth names destroyed in early 2025. VRT does amazing for a couple of years because of the data center theme and then between January and April it basically goes down 60% in a straight line. If your portfolio is entirely aggressive growth and all in in that decline, there's no room for you to dial up aggressive growth and add to a VRT or any number of other names and if you're all in aggressive growth, you might be too stressed by the decline to want to add to any such things. The accurate measure of risk tolerance is when things are like they were a month ago, too many people think about risk tolerance through the lens of "everything is going up."

TheGoodCod

So derivatives rather than financials, like FIDSX. And yeah, I can see where the next 5 years will be a struggle back to where we were. (I'm sorry to say CME didn't cross my radar earlier in the year)

dvdmovie1

If there is some degree of a deal with China, the market goes higher but I have to think at some point a fair amount has already been priced in with the move off the lows. Longer-term, I still think the next 5 years in the market is not going to be as easy or lucrative as the last 5 years but there are going to be opportunities. I mean, even with the volatililty of recent months, who benefits? CME up 21% YTD.

Elementaldose

CME corn futes volume just spiked. Another pump incoming?

thaPHENOM_39

Says CME no. Not CMG

Impressive_Note_4769

CME exchange ES or MES, also NDQ for Nasdaq

Tirikemen

The unchanged rates *was* priced in. CME FedWatch had it as a \~95% probability. What probably wasn't priced in was these two sentences: "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."

deltaalternate

The CME fedwatch wasn't pricing a cut til July, but dovish comments about the number of cuts this year will probably dump us a bit

king_of_trader

I have no clue about futures, how does anyone manage so much money on CME if it had a decent run? I made some good money the last weeks with simple calls on this stock

daboss144

CME group is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It’s probably easiest to think of it as the derivatives version of the New York Stock Exchange. All they’re saying is that derivatives used to bet on interest rate futures are priced as if there is a 4.4% chance of a rate cut. The “odds” you can get for “betting” on an interest rate cut are roughly 1/20

No-Contribution1070

How did "CME group" come up with 4.4%. I read it and don't seen anything to justify that percentage. Just trying to understand how someone could come to a very specific conclusion to the probality of rate cuts at 4.4%.

JustCan6425

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-with-us-china-trade-talks-fed-rate-call-in-focus-235639800.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-with-us-china-trade-talks-fed-rate-call-in-focus-235639800.html) >Investors are now getting ready for the Fed's policy decision due at 2 p.m. ET. Traders are pricing in about 96% odds that the central bank will[ leave rates unchanged](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-defy-trump-hold-053502572.html), according the [CME's FedWatch tool.](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

jraiv420

Bessent only pumped the post market so Schwab could use it as exit liquidity since Indo-Pak war started when CME futes was closed 

hishazelglance

What data do you have that points to us _raising rates_ exactly? Fed CME tool doesn’t show that even being closed to a thing, and people much smarter than you or I at the banks or hedge funds have come on stating there will more than likely be 3 rate cuts in the back half of the year and tariffs start to take a toll on the economy.

momsickle

It is highly unlikely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will announce an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, 2025. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to maintain the current federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 99% probability to a rate hold.   Despite President Trump’s public pressure for immediate rate cuts, the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance. The central bank is adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, awaiting more definitive signs of economic slowdown or inflationary pressures before adjusting rates. Recent data shows a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1, but also a robust April jobs report with 177,000 jobs added, indicating a mixed economic picture.   Looking ahead, the Fed may consider rate cuts later in the year, possibly starting in July, depending on how economic conditions evolve. However, for now, the central bank is expected to keep rates steady and monitor incoming data closely.  The Fed’s decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EST (8:00 p.m. CET) on May 7, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST (8:30 p.m. CET).  PUTS AT CLOSE

Transcend-mopium

CME Fed watch is literally pricing in a 96.9% chance of a pause. Cuts this month are not the expectation.

Tirikemen

People here actually think they are cutting rates Wednesday? CME fedwatch has a 96% probability for no change lol, basically guaranteed. I don't know of any institutions that expected any cuts before June.

Inner-Detail-553

On the CME, it’s ticker “CL” In your app, might be /CL

Prestigious-Pin-1053

CME BRKb IRM KR Are a few I would add that have a good track record and aren’t going away anytime soon 

DueCryptographer4907

CME watchtool is showing 3% chance of rate cuts in May, 35% June, 80% chance July/August. Looks like its pricing in the tariff effects on the economy hitting the next couple months.

Peshmerga_Sistani

Fed Watch tool over on CME has priced out two .25 cuts to just one by Sept on the back of today's Non-farm Payroll data. The market is not betting on a .75% cut by June.

css555

\>if jpow cuts next week This is how I assign credibility to various posters. CME Fed Futures are assigning 40-1 odds on that happening.

KuntFuckula

Fed will not cut next week, and is not likely to cut in June either. CME watch currently had markets forecasting a cut in June as of yesterday but has now shifted bets to first cut coming in July on the back of this hot jobs report. JPow & Co have made clear they are in no rush to cut rates as they assess the impact of the Trump tariff regime on inflation which will wake several months of inflation prints to evaluate. Pre-tariff inventories will start to run dry in June and the fed won't get a look at tariff impacts on inflation until June/August (the reports look backward a month). BLUF: until there is more data on the effects of current tariff policy and long-term certainty on tariff levels moving forward, the fed will probably not cut rates.

Mysterious_Sock_7085

[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8brTKmQu/?symbol=CME\_MINI%3AES1%21](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8brTKmQu/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21)

isolated-cat

Yahoo Finance - Entering Friday's report, markets are pricing in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts at its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. as I said earlier, rate cuts are priced in. the rally was a result of that. now if the news don't change, it will be flat but if no rate cuts, then we will see those last week's gains erase in like 2-3 days

Top-Database2020

Already use it - I had the CME live feed and Bloomberg terminal login when I worked at the prop store.

WickOfDeath

The USA is not a big soybean exporter... [https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht\_charts/snd\_cbt.pdf](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf) According to the CME the imports and exports are balanced out to nearly zero. Just because US soybeans are not competitive in their price unless the USD is weak against the importer's currency... if outside of the USA happens a shortage the soybeans are exported, otherwise the flow is import and net zero. Actually brasilian soybeans are the most competitive because the brasilian currency is far more weak than the USD.

bitmoji

yes like CME currency futures EUR JPY GBP CHF SEK

Icy_Mushroom_425

Yes, the loss is from interest rate differentials (carry), and it should be offset by the USD interest you earn. For FX options, you can: buy a call option on CHF, use a collar strategy or choose strike near spot. For learning, check out: CME Group's FX options guides, BabyPips, Investopedia...

this_guy_fks

none of this makes any sense. >Then I bought CME CHF futures Jun 16 2025 to lock in the exchange rates so as to hedge the currency risks. do you mean to say you bough SFM5 futures ? (i think so) when did you buy them ? USDCHF fx is a bet on relative interest rate differentials. if the expected IR differential changes, then the fx rate will change. famously the idiot in charge launched a global trade war, which saw investors flee the dollar in droves, causing dxy weakness. you can see USDCHF went from 0.88 or so before american's were "liberated (from our wealth/future/reputation)" to now 0.8233. do you think fx rates are static? they also take into account relative purchasing power (PPP) and expected trade flows.

HesFromBarrancas

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html 57% probability we cut twice by July per CME. You project your own idiotic biases without looking at the data.

Codicus1212

The few remaining humans have lost control of the algos in the NYSE, CME, and Texas stock exchange. “Traders” are now militant cult members, doing everything in their power to keep the electricity flowing to their home exchanges. Wasteland survivors are drawn in by the lights like moths to a flame, just hoping for a hot shower and something to eat besides canned beans and roasted mutated rat. Little do they know this too is per design. The adage that Wall Street eats Main Street for lunch is now, ironically, literally, true. No sacrifice is too great in the name of keeping the free markets operating and protected.

Laiyned

I don’t know why people still try to make opinions about Fed cut probabilities. CME Group lays out the probability of cuts for the next FOMC based on the way interest rates are trading. The market collective (far smarter than you or I) has already decided what the likelihood is. Vibes based trading is how people lose here.

UniqueIndividual1213

CME announced XRP futures maybe

BarbellPadawan

Bears were so excited just a bit ago when CME opened up red. Lolz.

trumpdiego

OCC Examiner: So you want to do same day options? Won't this make the markets extremely volatile and act irrationally? CME Group: Yes, but that will never happen, it would take hoards of people doing insane amount of gambling every day. OCC Examiner: Ok, that seems true, I'll approve it. WSB: Hold my beer.