Reddit Posts
Last week's market performance and economic news review
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 29 - Feb 04 2024
Dear TDA or Schwab peeps - can you help out? - CFTC combos with opts & spot
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 22-28 2024
Summary of FOMC voters' speeches in January 2024 - very meaningful for interest rates movement ahead!
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 15-21 2024
BANBET: The 10y-2y treasury spread is gonna go >1% by Jan 2025. $50k on the table.
Rate cuts chances INCREASED after hot cpi
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 08-14 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Jan 01-07 2024
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 25-31 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Dec 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 27 - Dec 03 2023
Wall Street Journal - Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
Why long-duration, low-coupon treasury bonds are about to return 25%
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 20-26 2023
How to trade the newish micro Midcap 400 and SmallCap 600 stock index futures?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 13-19 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Nov 06-12 2023
FOMC Coming Up, Pullback Bid In View For XAUUSD
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 30 - Nov 05 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 23-29 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 16-22 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 09-15 2023
just spitballin' ... the "Wheel" except with forex -- is there a name for this ?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Oct 02-08 2023
The everything Bubble and why it can’t be blown up again.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 25 - Oct 01 2023
Where may I buy Bitcoin/Ether LEAPS options in the United States?
Macro Support In View For The XAUUSD (GOLD)!!
Hopefully a redditor (?) can provide input -- JPY:USD spot forex position fully hedged via CME JPY
September 20, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Statement
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 18-24 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 11-17 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Sep 04-10 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 28 - Sep 03 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 21-27 2023
CME Group and CF Benchmarks Launch BTC and ETH Reference Rates
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 14-20 2023
Interest rates should stay around 5% for longer — even as inflation falls, top economist Jim O’Neill says
A Time Traveler's strategy (Final). Reinvestment of profits according to the Kelly criterion.
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Aug 07-13 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 31-August 6 2023
How does a small business (really small) hedge their exchange risk exposure? I need to hedge only $1000 exposure to Yen but cannot find a future contract this small. Any help or advice?
July 26, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 24-30 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 17-23 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 10-16 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning July 10th, 2023
CME Group: if you think WTI is a manipulated commodity or a necessity- it once upon a time was until 1983
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | July 03-09 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 26 - July 02 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 19-25 2023
The Hawkish Pause… 6-14-23 SPY/ ES Futures, QQQ and VIX Daily Market Analysis
June 14, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
The Fed will be making a big mistake if it skips a rate hike today, top economist Mohamed El-Erian warns
Is there a BoEWatch tool to measure market sentiment to rate rise expectations?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 12-18 2023
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | June 05-11 2023
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chan
The odds of a 0.25% interest rate hike in June are now 67%, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool (It also shows that there is now a 30% chance of two 0.25% rate hikes in July)
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 29-June 4 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 22-28 2023
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 15-21 2023
How can you trade interest rate futures as a retail investor?
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 08-14 2023
Stock futures are flat as traders await inflation data later this week
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
May 3, 2023 - Federal Reserve FOMC Release Discussion
Stocks could soon retest all-time highs as markets react to possible 'thesis-changing' final rate hike from the Fed
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | May 01-07 2023
Market Recap - 4/25/23 - Economy is flashing red while companies beating estimations left and right
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 24 - .May 01 2023
The Federal Reserves Internal Turmoil, Recent Economic Reports and How To Profit - The Case for NUGT, UGL, AGQ, and Crypto
Options Questions Safe Haven Thread | Apr 17-23 2023
Mentions
That's CBOE. CME is futures.
CME open normal hours today.
Kinda crazy how all you read are analyst saying it’s a repeat of 1980 and 2011 and we are doomed for it to drop into oblivion any day now… Like no this set up is fundamentally different, the previous two times synthesized demand buying futures with leverage. This time the demand is fucking REAL lmaooo. Even if the CME raised the margin requirements a lot like they did in 2011 it’s not going to change shit.
Been real fucky since CME outage
Yea I cut back on my options and built a boring portfolio - ie: Goog, AMZN, CME, PM, AVGO, GS, SLV, WMT and such was looking to add some risk. My goldman I got at 750 did quite well :)
China is restricting silver exports at the beginning of the new year for a period of at least one year. MOFCOM was likely not happy that speculators at the SGE were shipping physical bullion to the LMBA a few weeks ago. This mass outpouring of silver led to substantial country-wide draw downs in silver and likely impacted industrial use. Futures traders are getting in now to avoid the inevitable silver rush. Most of the buying is being done by miners, as a hedge, and by various firms, as both a hedge and investment. If the latter request load outs of the warrants, which removes the bullion from the CME's affiliated storage facilities, then expect a significant upwards squeeze. If that happens, then it is possible that we could see COMEX trigger circuit breakers, which would further fuel the short-term mania.
CME still has rate cut odds at 22% 🤔
Michael Burry's theses be like: "NOOO they're saying that they would use these new GPU for 5-6 years while in the past they were saying they would use it for 4 years noooooooooo!!11!" "Ok maybe datacenters are running hot as fuck enough to crash the CME futures because of AI workload, but trust me there is NO end user demand for AI whatsoever@@!!+1"
they are going to tokenize stocks the same way they have tokenized gold to trade 24/7 CME's only way to stay competitive with tokenization is to expand trading hours to as close to 24/7 as possible
And I'm furious. After years of working for commodity firms at the CME I thought I escaped the bullshit of 24/7 trading when I switched to the equity side of things.
CME futures already do this so why not stocks too
* Data centers running so hot even the CME futures crash * Bers: nooo nobody is using the datacenters trust me
Yeah those AI predictions are absolutely wild lol. Going from 3.6% to 1.95% in 6 months would be like financial apocalypse territory The CME FedWatch tool is solid for getting actual market expectations instead of whatever hallucination ChatGPT cooked up
The moment the CME synthesized BTC into their options and futures Is the day the market died
> CME Group U.S. Equity futures have 7% price limits overnight and remain open for trading at that limit. If markets reach 7% up or down during the overnight session, they remain open but can only trade up to those price limits. Further, Dynamic Circuit Breakers will be in effect with a width of 3.5%. If a contract market moves beyond +/- 3.5% within an hour during the overnight session, trading will be paused for two minutes. [Sauce.](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/understanding-price-limits-and-circuit-breakers.html) Or they just let the servers overheat again **LMAO** 🤌
Fed never fails to cut against the CME fed tool odds, they don't have the balls
And that's most likely what's going to happen if you look at CME Fed watch. No more rate cut until the shadow Fed comes in.
Polymarket has it at 95% and CME FedWatch has it at 89.2% for a 25 BPS cut
CME FedWatch, what other odds would you use
you guys are truly regarded. you do realize things like futures markets that are traded with CME are the single global centralized exchange right? literally every order is public on the time and sales. yeah, if you're fucking around with equities and the commons your gonna get fucked... but i guess we are on wsb afterall
July 31 2024 The most recent (and last) time prediction markets priced in a very high probability (>70%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut—but the Fed ultimately held rates steady—was ahead of the July 31, 2024, FOMC meeting. At that point, the CME FedWatch Tool (based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures) showed approximately 95% odds of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by cooling inflation data and expectations of easing monetary policy. However, the Fed paused, keeping the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%, citing the need for more evidence of sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target. This misalignment led to a sharp market reaction: the S&P 500 dropped about 2% that day, and Treasury yields rose as traders adjusted to the hawkish surprise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in the post-meeting press conference that the decision was data-dependent, with recent inflation readings (like a sticky June CPI) warranting caution despite the market's dovish bets. This is what I think will happen next week, in my opinion.
# Most Recent Instance: July 31, 2024 FOMC Meeting The most recent (and last) time prediction markets priced in a very high probability (>70%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut—but the Fed ultimately held rates steady—was ahead of the July 31, 2024, FOMC meeting. At that point, the CME FedWatch Tool (based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures) showed approximately 95% odds of a 25-basis-point cut, driven by cooling inflation data and expectations of easing monetary policy. However, the Fed paused, keeping the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%, citing the need for more evidence of sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target. This misalignment led to a sharp market reaction: the S&P 500 dropped about 2% that day, and Treasury yields rose as traders adjusted to the hawkish surprise. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized in the post-meeting press conference that the decision was data-dependent, with recent inflation readings (like a sticky June CPI) warranting caution despite the market's dovish bets.
We meet outside the CME datacenter Wednesday nights.
Yeah, you could be correct. But if we get a surprising high PCE tomorrow then that will affect probabilities of future rate cuts before the FOMC meeting next week. From what I see, the market seems to be very correlated to the CME rate cut probabilities these last few weeks.
I'm back and forth on this. CME FedWatch tool shows 87% today which is actually a 2.2% reduction from yesterday. It's somewhat priced in.
Most of those gold trades you’re seeing are either CME gold futures (GC/MGC) or GLD options; to make money on a drop you short the futures or buy puts/put spreads. Platforms: IBKR and Tastytrade both support gold futures; you’ll need to enable futures permissions and margin. Robinhood doesn’t offer futures. Symbols: GC = 100 oz, $10 per 0.10 tick; MGC (micro) = 10 oz, $1 per tick. Start with MGC to size small. Pick the front month with the most volume, use an OCO bracket (target + stop), and close or roll before first notice day so you don’t mess with delivery. Big movers are CPI, FOMC, NFP, and DXY/real yields; if you’re new, avoid holding through those. If you don’t want futures, trade GLD/IAU: buy a 30–60 DTE put spread for defined risk, or use inverse ETFs like GLL/DGZ for simple short exposure (know they decay). I use TradingView for GC/MGC charts and OptionsStrat to price GLD spreads, and Ask Edgar to scan miner filings and earnings transcripts when I want context on supply/dilution. Short version: it’s futures or GLD options; short the contract or buy puts to play downside.
Is there a CME fedwatch but for whether or not they start QE at this FOMC?
Kalshi is more like cash settled futures than options. You can buy all kinds of cash settled futures (like on the weather, S&P 500, BitCoin, etc.) on CME.
Because it’s just a digital option on a probabilistic event. If that’s gambling then selling a naked call for amount of rainfall in Nebraska during June on CME should also be illegal, and so should buying a deep OTM call on TSLA.
I don't think you know what you're talking about. For one example, polymarket and kalshi announced a deal with the NHL to verify results. Additionally CME has a non-exclusive partnership with Fanduel to verify outcomes including on "benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, prices of oil and gas, gold, cryptocurrencies, and key economic indicators such as GDP and CPI."
Big spike to $61 in silver ?! …same as the spike to $59 (from $54) pre-CME halt
the banks are going to try to slam silver for a third round. this one won't work as well. chyna demands the delivery and they're completely fuk. they can't pull off the "uh oh CME overheated in the freezing cold" trick again. unless they do. then something is REALLY wrong.
The Fed rate cut meeting is next week but hopefully JPOW hints at something tonight. The CME Fedwatch tool is already at an 87% probability of a rate cut.
Need that rate cut. 87% chance on CME
I’ve worked at a couple datacenters at the start of my career. Yes I worked at CME’s datacenter, but it was before the sale in 2016. I didn’t have anything to do with the cooling failure last week.
how do we now CME futures are not broken after they lost cooling
Meetup at the CME datacenter. They can’t stop us all! 2905 Diehl Rd, Aurora, IL 60502
No amount of money would convince CyrusOne to fuck themselves in the proverbial ass as they did with this PR nightmare. And believe me CME is going to be ripping them multiple new assholes nonstop for this.
This ain’t real guys. This CME manipulation.
We meet outside the CME datacenter.
Still can’t believe the berrorists attacked CME and it was down for 12 hours.
How is no one looking into CME shutting futures off over the insane silver volume Friday
Technically the CME rules don’t allow for such, that’s why there are many hypothesizing that the cooling issue is just an excuse for such perfect timing
I heard the silver surge was responsible for the CME crash last Friday
I assume that means yes. Wanna meet up at the CME datacenter?
He's referring to trading futures... assuming CME's servers actually work without overheating this week
That's what I've been keeping an eye on. Things could get prickly if SOFR-EFFR spreads are high Monday morning. Volume's gonna tell a lot of stories as well especially after the CME issues on Friday.
In the 1920s NYSE and CME (I think) was open for two hours on Saturday morning.
Either CME group is gitchimg out again or my broker is. Woke up this morning and checked the port for shits and giggles and its showing I have a -218,000$ account deficit. Kinda funny took a screenshot just to remember the possibilities even though this isnt real and some weird marked to market glitch or something.
I have systems on tier 3 DCs, nearly all the neoclouds are tier 3: that's **99.982%,** which equates to about 1.6 hours of downtime per year, and uses N+1 redundancy for its critical infrastructure. Hyperscalers like Google are *supposed* to be tier 4: it guarantees **99.995% uptime** (no more than 26.3 minutes of downtime per year), ensuring continuous operations even during failures or maintenance, and includes a **96-hour power outage protection**. Is CME running on what? tier 1? someone's home computer cluster?
Update : https://preview.redd.it/pp4amkb3m44g1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e26c09a7e1cf142b42eb3315cdcaffe705e013ca And that, is why CME was down for 11 hours. Big players shorted Silver at the 45 YEAR resistance line at $52. (Very very strong resistance line being 45 years). To know who these speculators are, just see the Covid Crude Oil crash on 2020. Major world banks & institutions. The moment it broke $54 at 10am SGT today, they panicked and had CME shut it down 30 mins later. They can’t just shut down SI, that’s too suspect. So they closed the entire exchange. It bought time for big players to wait until premarket opens at 5pm SGT, where they SLOWLY buy massive amounts of SLV positions driving SLV up 2% premarket over the next 4.5 hours to hedge their short SI positions until futures opened again at 9.30pm SGT. SI ended with a 6.63% gain at closing at $57.165. Closing at record ATHs. Congrats to those that had long silver positions.
remember when CME tried to stop silver from limiting up this morning...the game is so rigged lmao
MMs are going to try and slam silver Monday. I wonder if that's why CME shut off futures, it was the biggest premarket rally all year for silver. They tried to stop it
Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard Regard This should trigger the data miners an Absolute goldmine data I hope this is not make their servers to overheating like CME yesterday
Ya because the CME isn’t going to lease a dedicated data center, they are going to share one with AI hyper scalers.
Volatile day for my favorite stock, CME. Heard it hit circuit breakers before open.
Hopefully, CME won't turn off the markets again on Monday.
CME’s Data Centers in Chicago overheated which caused the stoppage in the futures market this week https://www.wsj.com/finance/cme-options-futures-trading-halted-amid-data-center-issue-16e96ed1?st=WEPXgg&reflink=article_copyURL_share
F that CME glitch. I woke up, panicked, and canceled three different orders for over 400 shares out of panic. Then, the market does amazing, smh.
The whole exchange is crooked, jpm was fined multiple timea for manipulating the silver market through the CME. If you dont believe me, google what a CME gap is
Thanks to this I couldn’t yolo my entire paycheck on gold fuck you CME group
how was CME green today after that…tf
That halt was 100% to save someone getting out of silver today. Ur telling me on black Friday with low volume the CME computers just happened to overheat....someone caught what was about to happen and they pulled the plug before it was too late.
Datacenters don’t have windows. 2905 Diehl Rd, Aurora, IL 60502 Look at it from satellite view. It’s a 3 building complex. The middle one is just for CME.
CME crashed the other day too. Apocalypse is nigh
Classic classic classic. [CME](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/CME)
My brother works at this data center for CME. He’s going to clock in later and I’ll ask what the root cause of the issue is lmao.
Along with last night nights CME closure for being to hot is not helping any.
I called it before the whole CME cooler issue https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/5hVbRjxlBa
Jensen was spotted near CME datacenters in the morning to sabotage Google options. Backfired on NVDA, too.
#Breaking: 🥭 to sacrifice pardoned turkeys at the CME to please the server gods 🙏 🤲 🙏
#Breaking: Jensen Huang spotted at the CME data center personally blowing air on the servers to help the cooling effort
CME has monopoly in Processing options.
This is what the chain looks like without market makers. I bet they pulled the plug on their algos with the CME outage this morning
\>vix doing weird shit and fucking over options prices \>low volume \>CME market fuckery ideal time to watch in the sidelines, grab popcorn and not trade.
When I see CME, I can't help but read it as Chipotle Mexican Empire
CME had a physical hardware outage at a data center around 3AM CT.
Futes are so hot it melted CME.
What happens if CME announces a second 'cooling issue' and shuts down the markets
CME just made silver mad. You wouldnt it when it gets mad
Mr precedent a second CME has hit the stock futures
gold and silver dgaf about CME
“CyrusOne’s cooling system said “nope,” and CME hit the kill switch. No S&P futures, no crude, no bonds… nothing. Just silence. Look, I’m not saying AI is to blame… …but data centers have been running hotter than my margin calls ever since everyone started training 900 billion–parameter models to recommend cat memes.” Can people stop using AI to write everything?
You're assuming that the AI was working so well the CME crashed. However, the opposite could be true too: CME's vibe-coded software could've sucked. We'll have to wait for an insider to tell us one way or the other! All I'm saying is lots of things keep going down now that vibe-coding comes first. \-Signed a software engineer.
The CME Group are scammers. No valid reason why commodity futures trading was halted. Just ‘technical issues.’ Coincidentally, just as #Silver is about to breakout.
Someone at CME tried to save their silver shorts, apparently slamming is no longer working
Nice [More dd here](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/CME)
Theta burn was so hot it took down CME
CME must’ve hired people from Ubisoft
The AWS effect (n.) | noun | Definition: The phenomenon where the share price of a stock rises when said stock has a technical fault, due to people realising how important the function of the stock is. Example: “CME is down today, but thanks to the AWS effect their shire price is rising”
The CME servers failed the Does it Play Doom test.
Mr. CME, gap up this gap.
Futes still closed lul, CME garbage
Breaking - CME employees instructed to never use their servers to play call of duty again