CME

aint_no_lie

If you really think Miami is going to be the epicenter and this is the year, take a look at CME's real estate futures. They have contracts for Miami. When I've looked at RE futures in the past, they didn't seem to have much liquidity, but maybe it will be acceptable to you and can be another piece to your overall strategy here.

greytoc

All leverage have an expense. It's the cost to borrow some ratio against the value of some collateral. When someone refers to leveraged shares. They are likely either discussing using margin to buy more shares of an investment. Or commonly also referring to ETPs (exchange traded products) which provide leverage through the use of various techniques such as futures, options, margin, etc. Futures are standardized forward contracts which are regulated and listed on exchanges. They differ from options because a futures contract sets the price for delivery of some underlying asset at a future date. (kinda why they are called futures). With future - there is a margin system called SPAN is what allows for that leverage. A decent primer can be found here - [https://www.schwab.com/futures/what-are-futures](https://www.schwab.com/futures/what-are-futures) The CME which one of the larger futures exchanges has a educational site here - [https://www.cmegroup.com/education.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education.html) Options are contracts which give the holder the right to exercise the right to sell or buy an underlying asset at a specific strike price - more information at the CBOE education site here - [https://www.cboe.com/optionsinstitute/](https://www.cboe.com/optionsinstitute/) Among traders and investors - options are commonly used on equity and ETF assets. But it's also common to trade options on futures contracts - sometimes the term "fops" is used.

18th_century

I'm considering that if a single-leg SPX option is quoted 1 point wide, then on Interactive Brokers, a call spread would be quoted 2 points wide and a butterfly spread 4 points wide. This happens because their algorithm attempts to cross multiple bid offers. However, both the call spread and the butterfly have significantly less risk in terms of delta and vega. The bid-ask spread on these should be, at most, as wide as that on a single-leg vanilla option. The CME Direct platform has an RFQ feature that goes directly to market makers who automatically adjust this, but I'm not aware of such a feature for retail brokers.

OsoPlato

Keep it simple. Just buy a yen future @ CME. 1 contract is 12.5M yen, worth around $80K. Margin < $3k . Commissions would be negligible. Put remaining $87K in US Treasuries and earn 5%. You'll need to roll the contract quarterly but that should cost you about what you make in interest.

QC_knight1824

Volatility. More volatility typically means more selling, so it acts a hedge to the major indices. It's more complex than that, but there's the WSB jist. Look up the CME VIX if you want to learn more technicals

socialfreedotorg

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21

BarbellPadawan

When CME opens I’m putting on long positions

BarbellPadawan

Can CME open early? I have some moves to make!

ElevationAV

>Jpow has once again been very clear with his intentions that rate cuts are happening this year. no, what he has said many times it will rely on the data. He has never said "for sure we're gonna cut rates this year, 100% no question". The data is saying no cuts. Multiple fed members are now saying no cuts to 1 cut if necessary. What JPOW has said multiple times is "we need more data" and "rates will stay the same until we are 100% sure there's not going to be an issue". The market has been front running rate cuts for 5+ months, and are now pricing them out. The premise of two cuts this year has dropped significantly over the last week. It can be easily seen in CME FED futures. Three months ago we were at a 80% chance by March. Last week the market was 80% on a rate cut by June. Today they're at a 54% chance by July. Anyone expecting the FED to cut rates without a reason (more than "cause they said maybe") is on some serious Hopium.

Blackhalo

>the market today shrugged off hot inflation CME pushed out any projected rate cut to August. That meas rates will remain elevated for longer. It will take a bit for the market to digest how corps with high debt will have to refi cheap older debt a current high rates. Give it a week to really see how big a deal it is.

Affectionate-Idea690

>CF Benchmarks Launches Bitcoin Volatility Index The Bitcoin Volatility Index will become the baseline reference rate for forward-looking volatility for bitcoin. Composed of the CF Bitcoin Volatility Real Time Index (BVX) and the CF Bitcoin Volatility Index Settlement Rate (BVXS), the indices aggregate implied volatility from bitcoin options contracts listed on the CME into a single value to gauge market volatility and uncertainty. The BVX prints approximately every second to provide bitcoin volatility real-time with the BVXS calculating a daily settlement rate based on a 30-minute window of BVX observations between 1530-1600 London time.

OmegaRaichu

Nobody is anticipating further hikes. I don’t know where people get this from or why you’d believe something a redditor obviously pulled out of their ass. Just go look at CME Fedwatch to see what the current market expectations are. Yields go higher because after today’s CPI print, bond traders are re-evaluating the previously expected cuts this year.

tekteq

Let's do a quick hypothetical case study on a $10MM construction project over the last two years: 2022: * You take out a 70% LTC / $7MM loan. * Your interest rate is 3.93% (350bps + 1M SOFR) * Your total interest cost is \~$551K over two years (Estimate) 2024: * Your project material costs have gone up 2.2% to 10.22MM * You take out a 70% LTC / $7.15MM loan. * Your interest rate is 8.82% (350bps + 1M SOFR) * Your total interest cost is \~$1.26MM over two years (Estimate) Comparison * Over the span of two years your overall project cost (including financing) has gone up 8.81%. * Now, taking some data from CoStar on say the New York market, average asking rent has only gone up 3.50%, not enough to overcome cost increases. * Land prices remain stagnant. * Significantly less banks are willing to even lend to you at 8.82% as a direct result of the Regional Banking Crisis. Conclusion It's more expensive than in recent history to get anything built, driving up rents on existing units while exacerbating existing housing shortages. High interest rates are also driving more and more people who *would have owned* to wait it out and rent. Not sure how you fix this while keeping rates elevated besides large incentives for developers. Source(s): CME, CoStar, FRED, I work for a developer.

Advanced-Speaker-729

Nope, been watching it for a long time. I am a very adept commodities trader and have won CME competitions. Moved out of crypto to hit this and $RDDT. Thought $RDDT might meme, this is a new account but having not been here since 21 or so, times have clearly changed. $RDDT was a bust and this is the other half of my play. I won't leave the market empty handed because I am too skilled for that. But I mean if you are short on cocoa then it says it all that you are scared to claim that position openly.

jr1tn

The benchmark they are using is the CME Fed Watch Tool Currently projecting two rate cuts with first in Sept

5_trillion_fucks

i love the segment where he goes to the CME pit to "find a trader to talk to" and its always cem karsan standing there every time

dkrett

Currently on the CME trading floor (SOFR options) and wow, that didnt go down too well.....not that the agressive cutting cycle wasnt just a total fantasy to begin with, but wonder when we might start looking at the possibility of another hike

m00z9

Sorry to hijack. The past few days I've had some standing CME ES LMT orders to close complex combos. At rare, weird times, the order will be filled. At the LMT price, yes. But "the Market" wasn't really close. I'm guessing when enough stray MKT orders come in, the giant CME Brain can match those (bad; dumb) MKT orders with my LMT orders?? Is there like some reliable arbitrage-type repeatable trade here? How To Profit From Stupid MKT Orders kinda thing ...

AfterGuitar4544

If your broker doesn’t show this data, try looking directly through the CME for past data. At the end of the day, /ES will be no real different than SPX or SPY, the future price contains contango that is all

this_guy_fks

If you think you have a view on the expected changes of short term interest rate differentials, the absolutely you should have currencies in your portfolio. the reality is determining that view is very hard, and thus no retail investors even bother, and you don't see it pop up. Also because its essentially a bet on a small change in prices, you have to lever up the position dramatically to achieve any kind of return, this leverage is usually hard for retail investors to access. (but not impossible, there are CME fx futures, and you can find retail FX trading platforms (https://www.metatrader5.com/en))

No-Basis8475

The CME fed funds rate chart suggests the market is saying there is still a 55% chance of a June cut. But sure

Affectionate-Idea690

US interest rate futures pare back June odds of a rate cut to 54.5% after jobs data - CME's Fedwatvatch

Elforas_Tero

I still see 3 rate cuts priced in in CME FedWatch Tool 

RagingBearBull

yo can only do that durning market hours .......... They have 24 hour stcok trading on certain stocks, but the CME is pretty clear about trading hours

Shacreme

Send an email to CME or to ICE to create a market for Baconator futures.

big-rob512

Bro 'AI' has crashed the DOW already through spoofing futures contracts, probably 90% or more of volume is through algorithms ran on supercomputers right next to NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE, CME shits not new its called high frequency trading

Guinness

> he emptied the us strategy crude reserve This is a common strategy to put a dent is high oil prices. > It's all too low and its all Biden's fault. Oh, one of _those_ who thinks the president controls everything. FYI the price of oil is set on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange when two parties agree to a trade. Last time I checked, CME was a private entity with no connection to Biden. But whatever keep thinking its all his fault.

Terrible_Champion298

Although not as accurate as perhaps other probability calculations, CME Group & Options Alpha will argue that first sentence with you. Why? Likely because the closer delta gets to a 1.0000 calculation it equally relates to ITM probability. This seems to be a fairly common discussion on Reddit, and generally where I depart, for there is no harm in the ITM probability belief if the trader understands it is only in the immediate. I’m well aware that when trading morning near-Open volatility, I must calculate both the delta change and what the increased gamma and/or IV squeeze is doing to that delta expectation or I’m cheating myself with limits too low that might open or close before a predicted peak.

lolkkthxbye

Latest CME movements are interesting; 80% probability of 2 or more cuts by the Sept meeting. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Expensive-Jump3389

All you need to do is look at the treasury rates. You can back into the expected rate if you are good enough at math. You can also check out the [CME Watch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

Function_Initial

Unless you’re trading cash-settled indices, it’s free per Robinhood’s business model. They charge the standard CME rates for any of the cash-settled indices. Honestly, if you’re trading SPY, you may as well use XSP because if you’re profitable 60% of the gains are taxed as long-term capital gains, and 40% as short. Versus regular options which are all entirely ordinary income. They’re gonna be offering futures soon as well too, so there’s definitely going to be a lot of instruments to choose from.

Function_Initial

Pretty sure Webull is offering 3.5% and also doesn’t require a membership. Moreover, they have access to more than Robinhood does at the moment and will continue to do so most likely. They haven’t even gotten CME options yet, which just blows my mind. It’ll be a scary day if they get approved for WSB lol.

OurNewestMember

First: >There isn't just one central clearing house in the sky Correct. It is located in Chicago for equity and ETF options: >OCC is the sole clearing agency for standardized equity options * [https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/occ/2024/34-99735\_0.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/occ/2024/34-99735_0.pdf) &#x200B; The OCC: * [https://www.sec.gov/tm/clearing-agencies](https://www.sec.gov/tm/clearing-agencies) * What OCC does as a central counterparty clearinghouse (CCP): [https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/0e95a4a8-2ec5-4d70-9332-9edb98f71a42/OCC-Primer-How-CCPs-Support-Financial-Stability-F.pdf](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/0e95a4a8-2ec5-4d70-9332-9edb98f71a42/OCC-Primer-How-CCPs-Support-Financial-Stability-F.pdf) * Its literal purpose is to act as "just one central clearing house" * Any exchange you would expect to execute an equity/ETF option trade is listed as a participant (none are missing): * [https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/4460eae5-a448-471b-91d7-2a16a2ede13e/OCC-ToolKit-At-A-Glance-2022-092623.pdf](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/4460eae5-a448-471b-91d7-2a16a2ede13e/OCC-ToolKit-At-A-Glance-2022-092623.pdf) &#x200B; For futures options, CME Clearing is probably the most relevant for retail (also not headquartered "in the sky" but in Chicago) >certain entities with which the Firm conducts business, such as futures exchanges, clearinghouses, and market data providers, are centralized, mandatory counterparties in financial services transactions. * That is how one FCM describes their relationship to CCPs -- "centralized, mandatory counterparties": [https://www.tdameritrade.com/content/dam/tda/retail/marketing/en/pdf/TDA614.pdf](https://www.tdameritrade.com/content/dam/tda/retail/marketing/en/pdf/TDA614.pdf) * [https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/TradingOrganizations/DCMs/index.htm](https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/TradingOrganizations/DCMs/index.htm) * Couldn't find a list of actual DCOs, but some trade names here will overlap &#x200B; Also, an honorable mention for the NSCC clearinghouse for its relevance to physically-settled equity options (cash from your options trade can land there after assignment/exercise). &#x200B; When you trade options, you need to make a deposit with one of these clearing agencies ("centralized, mandatory"). &#x200B; As I said: >On settlement day, your clearing broker will provide cash they received from your broker to the clearing party as margin * [https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/ee13d258-9d37-4eff-83c0-e9e4294e2489/OCC-Primer-Exchange-Listed-Options-Ecosystem-July23-F.pdf](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/ee13d258-9d37-4eff-83c0-e9e4294e2489/OCC-Primer-Exchange-Listed-Options-Ecosystem-July23-F.pdf) * It doesn't actually have to be USD "cash" * see also OCC rule 604: [https://www.theocc.com/clearance-and-settlement/acceptable-collateral-haircuts](https://www.theocc.com/clearance-and-settlement/acceptable-collateral-haircuts) * The introducing/carrying broker probably also gets similar treatment * or the clearing broker can increase the lien against customer assets (eg, margin loan, risk-based margin) * example for TDA Clearing ("receivables from brokerage clients"): [https://www.tdameritrade.com/content/dam/tda/retail/marketing/en/pdf/financialstatement.pdf](https://www.tdameritrade.com/content/dam/tda/retail/marketing/en/pdf/financialstatement.pdf) * It is similar for other parties like CME Clearing * Some clearing brokers: [https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory](https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory) * You will recognize some like Apex, TD Ameritrade Clearing and Interactive Brokers &#x200B; >Unless they don't. The clearing broker will likely be netted * A central counterparty clearinghouse can and will net the exposures * Example. [https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/9d3854cd-b782-450f-bcf7-33169b0576ce/occ\_rules.pdf](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/9d3854cd-b782-450f-bcf7-33169b0576ce/occ_rules.pdf) * see rules 502 and 607 * But the most extensive netting really only happens in some cases * [https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/guidance/interpretations-financial-operational-rules/sea-rule-15c3-3-and-related-interpretations](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/guidance/interpretations-financial-operational-rules/sea-rule-15c3-3-and-related-interpretations) * Probably more leeway with futures options and risk-based margin So clearing happens with the OCC for equity/ETF standardized options (CME for common futures options, etc). USD "cash" deposits are not strictly required. And deposit amounts by clearing members do not strictly equal deposits required from the principals (eg, retail options traders) or agents (eg, introducing/carrying brokers). And a given position could require different deposits under difference circumstances. So that means there's not a direct mapping between what was debited on one side of the trade (whether USD, credit, securities, etc) and what gets credited on the other side. In practice, there is the illusion/mnemonic that when trader A buys an option, USD disappears from their account, and USD appears in trader B's account (whether or not the trade is the first options contract of a series created.) * For one, the traders don't know or control what assets (if any) were deposited with the CCP or clearing brokers for an options trade. * They don't even know what the broker did with the cash and securities that were deposited in the account in the first place. So how do you know your options trade was paid/secured with USD? You don't. * The traders also don't control whether or not their broker uses a customer omnibus account to carry their account * The traders don't control how close to the base collateralization rate the brokers are with the clearinghouses * The traders don't control the difference between various house and regulatory requirements * A trader under risk-based margin can put on a debit options order and the brokers will get "cash" back (and then the broker could change house requirements) * Each trader may be under a different set of regulatory/risk rules So there are several problems with envisioning that trader A's options debit are USD which go to trader B.

creemeeseason

Lumine group up 9% and UFPT up 4%. Market loving on small caps today. Commodities running too, SCCO, HCC, and CNX all having solid days. Not sure exactly why though, [CME FED watch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) actually showing a slight decrease in the odds of a cut in June.

thekoonbear

Not sure what futures options you’d be looking for if not the CME ones. No traditional exchange is going to be offering stuff from Binance or Deribit or anything like that if that’s what you mean.

options_crypto

I think the ones in IBRK are the CME ones, or you know of any other?

options_crypto

CME mention on their website that they have crypto options, specifically btc. Not sure about the bid-ask spread, seems not great, same as liquidity. In some crypto exchanges, bid-ask spreads are pretty good, they work well for me (of course there is a risk due to lack of regulation, but till now Delta, Bybit, Binance or Okx have been pretty solid)

randyranderson-

Where did I say that I knew better than financial analysts? I was just trying to discuss a thought, and now you’re gatekeeping it by telling me to get a CFA. I want to learn, not get told to shut up and blindly follow analysts. I work in IT and have worked for prop trading firms in the past so I m ow these companies and people you’re talking about. I’ve spent time on floor in the CME and CBOE and talked to the traders. I’m no expert but I’m certainly aware of what resources there are in industry. You’re making a lot of assumptions that I don’t know how the financial industry works.

ngolo_a

Does this broker has your basic CME futures: ES, NQ, RTY, etc. or just leveraged ones?

No_Fortune_8056

It would have been age ten I think, you didn’t read some of my post where my dad worked on the CME….Even in that post you quoted I recognized that my dad has been the one trading my account for me…. Secondly at that point my option account never made any money.. it’s doing a lot better now up about 20% this last month…you also missed post where I made about 170k in a month. Also someone else commented in here that it is possible. He asked if it is possible not if it’s probable. I clearly said it is technically possible which it is. I don’t know what this has to do with me though?

PoemStandard6651

No, you do not need to own shares. Stocks and options are two distinct markets unless the option is exercised. The market is divided into two major segments, Calls and Puts. Calls are bought when you expect the underlying to go up, Puts are bought when you expect it to go down. Puts are confusing causing it's difficult to grasp you're profiting when the underlying is falling. Both Calls and Puts have buyers and sellers. They are distinct markets. It's more difficult to be a seller though, cause sellers are on the hook if and when the buyer exercises, so you'll need more $$$ and be approved by your broker. Buyer's max loss is the premium paid, that's all, while the sellers max loss is theoretically infinite. Sellers max profit is the premium paid. Since options have an expiration date, the farther out the more expensive it will be. An entire new industry has been formed called 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration), i.e., trading options on their last day. Option basics are quite complex, built on highly sophisticated mathematical models. Not necessary to get to this level to trade, but if you have a math background it will help. Suggest the CME (Chi Mercantile Exchange) website. They have definitive options education available to all.

r_brockmaniv

You seem to be the only one to have figured it out and the entire options industry is wrong, from the CME to options profit calculators, etc. Is my assumption correct?

ScottishTrader

Delta is the approximate probability the option will expire ITM or OTM. A delta of .67 would have about a 67% probability of ending ITM when the option expires. Probability is by definition an estimate so it does not mean it will happen but is the only indicator we have to make this estimation. While I have no idea who the new guy who created an account today to post, but it is not correct and very misleading . . . Let me list some examples - From the **CME group**, *"The absolute value of the Delta also tells the approximate probability that the option will finish in-the-money.* *For example, if the option has a delta of 20 it suggests it has a 20% chance of finishing in-the-money. A delta of 50 suggests it has a 50-50 chance of finishing in-the-money."* \- [https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/option-greeks/options-delta-the-greeks.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/option-greeks/options-delta-the-greeks.html) Another from the **OIC (Options Industry Council)**, *"Some traders view Delta as a percentage probability an option will wind up in-the-money at expiration. Therefore, an at-the-money option would have a .50 Delta or 50% chance of being in-the-money at expiration. Deep-in-the-money options will have a much larger Delta or much higher probability of expiring in-the-money."* \- [https://www.optionseducation.org/advancedconcepts/delta](https://www.optionseducation.org/advancedconcepts/delta) Searching the topic will provide more from credible sources. Is Delta and probabilities a "sure thing"? Absolutely not, nothing is a "sure thing", but it is an indicator most traders use to determine the probability (estimate) of a trade succeeding or not. It is what you can use to help answer the question in your post . . .

someguywitheaphone

I saw so many CME traders come and go when they blew their account up selling teenies.

thekoonbear

Knew a trader at the CME who’s motto was “sell teenies buy lamborghinis.” He is no longer a market maker.

someguywitheaphone

What if another bidder comes to the table? What if they reject the $28? You are assuming it’s a given that it will happen at $28. All to gain a few Pennie’s. A good rule of thumb: NEVER sell teenies. It’s free money till it isn’t. I was a professional market maker at the CME for 30+ years. The amount of traders I saw blow up their account for “ free money” was large. Just a cautionary warning.

snyder810

Issue here doesn’t seem like there aren’t companies, or pockets of the market, that meet your criteria, it’s that you want growth minded blue chippers at bottom dollar pricing. Good luck waiting for those opportunities. I don’t know if the market is too optimistic on MSFT & CME, but I do know I’m probably not getting opportunities at elite companies who have spent the last 5+ years compounding 20%+ growth on the bottom line at 10X trailing all too often. I do know that if someone isn’t willing to buy in regularly during any market cycle, they probably are not going to all of a sudden feel comfortable doing so during whatever crisis gives me the opportunity described above.

creemeeseason

[CME FED watch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) showing chance of cuts much higher now in June, and even a little higher for May.

No_Fortune_8056

Okay that makes more sense. I think we’re on the same page then. I should have added I didn’t say it is very probable I just said it was possible. I’ve had it done before like ten years ago but I know it’s possible because I’ve done it. There not doing it for any Joe Schmoe but if your going to sell 500,000 contracts of ZC=F the CME will get you a strike because that’s a lot of volume flowing through there exchange about 2x the average daily volume there not passing up on 1.6m from a single trade.

baconography

99% probability of no rates change on CME FedWatch tool. Sooo, market go: # ➡

Slow_Depth_3276

The CME FED Watch Tool prognoses no change in interest rates [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) https://preview.redd.it/7bqf1gs34gpc1.png?width=1422&format=png&auto=webp&s=3132317a360c0ae5aead495c42f7e0cc3fcc08f5

TigreTigerTiger

Ok yes the market doesn’t like the unknown but there’s a clear downtrend on the 30 day fed fund futures starting EOY23 (the source of your CME fed fund tool). Expectations are changing and the market doesn’t seem to hate it as that downtrend corresponds to a rise in equities. With the feds primary driver for keeping rates high being inflation. The inflation numbers came in hot again and the market isn’t dipping… is it possible your opinion of what the market expects is a bit off?

Copernicus2020

Use the CME Fedwatch Tool

AKdemy

Are you saying a seller could call the CME and have a strike added to say the [E-Mini option chain](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.options.html#venue=globex)?

No_Fortune_8056

Options are not created out of thin air. They are contracts. So the seller and the buyer are creating a contract. You just see the strikes listed because they are the most common ones. Technically if you’re a seller you can call the CME and get say a strike of 187.56 made and have your contract listed.

thekoonbear

Every futures option is going to have different specs. You can check the listing exchanges site for these specs. CME has a ton of different asset classes with futures options from short term rates to treasuries to equities to commodities. Every single one has different specs. Lower dte options almost always have better liquidity than longer dated, but you still have nuances within each market. For something like SOFR, the quarterly months will be the most liquid, and often the front month will have lower volume as expiry approaches as there isn’t much volatility left in Fed policy. Equities and treasuries on the other hand will be very liquid up to expiration.

Connect_Boss6316

There's a large market for some futures options (eg ES or CL). I used to trade these. Some less popular commodities (eg sugar etc) will have wider bid-ask spreads. The specification for each varies depending on the underlying, so check the CME link which another poster has put up. Don't ever well naked calls on commodity futures - cos commodities tend to crash upwards.

slambooy

[https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) &#x200B; That's exactly what I was talking about. Its called the CME Fedwatch Tool

Putrid_Pollution3455

That's what CME is giving a 55.7% chance on....for now. Once those stupid inflation reports keep coming in spicy....all hell is going to break lose....last time we had a major inflation crisis, it came in 3 waves. Supposedly we learned our lesson. If they cut rates too soon, we relive the triple wave of hell. [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

kiwimancy

If you hold futures you need to post ~5% cash to secure it per CME requirements. A bit more at TDA. Double at IBKR. TDA at least doesn't pay interest on that cash and doesn't allow you to post tbills. IBKR might allow you to post tbills (its unclear in that thread and I don't have IBKR). But then I'll also want another 5-10% buffer so I don't have to move cash around manually every day. Again, not earning interest at TDA. At IBKR, they pay decent interest but only above the first 10k.

Impossible_Delay6811

The risk free rate is not a free parameter on BSM. RFR swaps are market quoted and companies like the  [CME](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/files/discounting-transition-proposal-aug-2020.pdf) and LCH moved to SOFR PAI and discounting on [Oct. 16 2020](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/microsites/arrc/files/libor-timeline.pdf). For EUR cleared, major CCPs did this since July 27 2020.  The RFR is just like spot, dividends, time, and strike something that is fixed by the contract term and market data.  Also, I don't think you understand what risk neutral pricing means. It does not mean you don't expose yourself to risk. 

Impossible_Delay6811

The risk free rate is not a free parameter on BSM. RFR swaps are market quoted and companies like the  [CME](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/files/discounting-transition-proposal-aug-2020.pdf) and LCH moved to SOFR PAI and discounting on [Oct. 16 2020](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/microsites/arrc/files/libor-timeline.pdf). For EUR cleared, major CCPs did this since July 27 2020.  The RFR is just like spot, dividends, time, and strike something that is fixed by the contract term and market data.  Also, I don't think you understand what risk neutral pricing means. It does not mean you don't expose yourself to risk. 

Impossible_Delay6811

The risk free rate is not a free parameter on BSM. RFR swaps are market quoted and companies like the  [CME](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/files/discounting-transition-proposal-aug-2020.pdf) and LCH moved to SOFR PAI and discounting on [Oct. 16 2020](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/microsites/arrc/files/libor-timeline.pdf). For EUR cleared, major CCPs did this since July 27 2020.  The RFR is just like spot, dividends, time, and strike something that is fixed by the contract term and market data.  Also, I don't think you understand what risk neutral pricing means. It does not mean you don't expose yourself to risk. 

freshjohnson69

55% chance of June cut according to CME. Bout 55% too high 

Emotional-War-7184

To me, BITX is an ETF that does make sense. BITX is a leveraged ETF that pays 2x CME Bitcoin futures ... so for instance in the past month Bitcoin is up 27%, BITX is up 59% ... last 3 months Bitcoin up 57% and BITX up 130% ... (BITX isn't traded on weekends, so likely when market opens it will adjust to close to 2x what Bitcoin has been doing). It isnt exact - but it gives a fairly close 2x return on Bitcoin (both up and down - even though actually traded based on CME Bitcoin futures). Since I think Bitcoin is going way up over the next year and a half - and cant really see it doing anything but going up during that time - this is a perfect leveraged ETF to maximize Bitcoin's rise in value. Because BITX is a 2x leveraged ETF - as soon as I get to a certain % rise, I'll be taking a certain percentage of profit to avoid a sudden 50% crash that could wipe out the investment - to be repeated at certain points of increase. Its a risky ETF based related to bitcoin - but if you can monitor it and have that kind of risk tolerance, it can be a good one.

patrickswayzemullet

no cut is already accepted by pretty much end of Jan; you don't need to "think", just look at CME FedWatch. If you just figured this out on your own last week you are so late. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

futurespacecadet

Wait, you really think the Fed is cutting rates at the end of March? God help you. Where the hell are you getting your information from? See this is why I don’t take any advice from the sub There’s a literal 1% chance of that happening according to the market with the CME fedwatch tool. There is a 9% chance of a cut in May and there’s a 50% chance of a cut in June, so right now the biggest probability is that it happens in June, which is also supported by the latest PPI numbers and unemployment numbers. It would be foolish to cut in March ffs

RandomNordicGuy

That's kind of what I'm thinking. Also February is likely the last hot CPI. You can see the data inputs and that's changing going into March and definitely will be changed by April. Another hint was the CME rate cut futures did not move for June or July on this last print. There's actually really good money and shorting the January 2026 $100 TLT puts. IMO it's a low risk way to use excess margin and just let them burn up

fukidtiots

Y'all know about BITO right? An ETF that only owns Bitcoin Futures on the CME? Allows options. Forced to pay out all profits as a monthly dividend. It's a gold mine when Bitcoin is in a bull run. So you can do options on futures. Not bad.

pointsnfigures

trade crypto futures at [Bitnomial.com](https://Bitnomial.com) . I think you can easily trade microfutures now if you don't have the $$ to trade the big contracts at places like CME.

throwingitanyway

corn finna close the 3k CME gap

sunny1490

probability of no rate cuts increased in June to 37% in CME fed watcher ( 525-550 (Current)37.1% )

billyd1984texas

CME has a 57% chance of rate cuts in June now

Significant_Beyond50

How does brokerage calculate the greeks (delta, etc.)? \- Does brokerage relay the data from CME group? \- Also, what's the process to derive delta? I know BS formula is involved. But what's the detailed steps?

JeffB1517

> how would you evaluate this estimate? I'm assuming where are they getting it? It is a standard number you can look at it at: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html here are the details on how CME computes it based on futures prices: https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html > what would you do to take advantage of the situation if you thought that interest rates aren't going down? Go short the 3 month SOFR future

WafflesOfDestiny

Probably due to the fact it was only slightly hotter than expected. Besides the unemployment rate was up a few days ago and the FED is non-stop talking about that being their main pivot point rn. CME Fedwatch didn't really pick up much change due to CPI on rate cut probability for June. Idk it's not THAT crazy. If it would've been 0.3% above the forecast, sure.

creemeeseason

Always fun to watch the [CME FED watch](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) tool on days like this. Chance of cuts in May have gone from 18% to 11.9% since yesterday. June still has a 66% chance of one or more cuts, down from 71.6% yesterday. I'm not making any moves on this, I just think it's a neat tool.

1UpUrBum

https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars S&P are traded on the exchange. Futures trade nearly 24 hours a day on a different exchange Chicago, CME.

iMogYew

For me the things that have helped me the most have been CME groups Intro to futures, the book "Technical analysis of the financial markets", Thomas Wade, PATsTrading and day trader next door, I AM NOT PROFITABLE and I am also new so take this with a grain of salt.

goatboy6000

Yeah, your stops didn't trigger. Sorry. -CME

qw1ns

Reliable indication from CME group, they get reliable information than retailers. [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

Affectionate-Idea690

Markets entered Friday's report betting that the first Fed interest rate cut will come in June, [per the CME FedWatch Tool. ](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)For the year, investors are pricing in a range of three to four rate cuts, per Bloomberg data.

Cid-Ozymandias

That's nice, man. All I'm saying is it's fascinating that AI could perform at 50% year over year for my personal account. I'm excited to see how much better models like mine could get in the future. I just started running the models long and short, whereas before they just went long. I predict I'll make over 50% this year, taking the new approach. I also want to mention it's all about timing because I have a buddy for whom I ran 100k with the models, and he made over 100% in less than a year trading commodity futures on the CME. Think about it this way: it's really freaking cool that adaptive machines could even perform at all, let alone outperform a benchmark

mllax

Sure glad I sold my spx calls for $10 gain yesterday 🤡 Doubt Powell will say anything too far off the market hasn’t already heard. Per CME, traders betting 4-5 cuts starting May.

nietzy

Volatility Index Futures … Google CME + /VX

jonneh

It’s all about the June cut. Right now the CME FedWatch tool has a probability of 55.4% of a cut in June. If that number starts to go up as we get through his testimony we’re ripping

CHRIS_IS_MY_DADDY

yah i signed up for them. apparently they are coming: this is the link it gave me: https://www.webull.com/ko-yield/1708507771756-9cf27f > Dear Clients, Exciting times are ahead! We're thrilled to announce the upcoming launch of Futures Trading, and we invite you to join the experience. Join our waitlist now, and not only will you be among the first to experience Futures trading on Webull, but you'll also enjoy exclusive rewards: 3 months $0 commission trading (500 contract limit) and free CME Group Level 2 access. Why trade Futures with Webull? Low commissions: Trade micro, mini, and regular Futures Contracts at low commissions Low margin rates: Trade Futures Contracts with rates as low as 10% Premier Trading Platform: Access our cutting-edge tools and features Competitive market data fees: Access Level 1 or Level 2 Market Data with ease Secure your spot by joining the waitlist today. Sincerely, The Webull team

EgyfogatuZaftban

CME micro futures are usually cash-settled. 🤓 That's why I don't fuck around with them. Give me deliverable contracts, I want to swim in that West Texas Intermediate Crude.

Fartbox7000

CME says otherwise ✌️🤡

passiveptions

Here is a link to the Fed Watch Tool from CME Group - [https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

greytoc

How would you handle the carry? I think that holding spot for a cash and carry trade can be tricky. Or are you planning to use a spot ETF to simulate the cash and carry? Are you looking at contango based on listed futures on the CME or some other exchange? I think that the settlement procedures can vary. The cost of entry and exit of the trade may be higher than the current risk-free rate which may be why the contango exists.

punanilover_69420

Why will it drop? Because it tracks the CME futures and not real Bitcoin? You think that futures market gets liquidated soon?

Fartbox7000

Meh, CME says otherwise. 

kiwimancy

Keep in mind those probabilities are not based on options or anything, CME just uses a constant spread for each additional meeting. Only the mean is market-based.

TheOtherPete

Underneath the table it says "Data as of 1 Mar 2024 05:28:42 CT" which is real-time for me so I would assume the data would be based on the current CME futures quotes and would update whenever futures are trading. I think you have to refresh your browser screen to see the current prices.

UnholyTrigon

Options market are controlled by CME not brokers

jr1tn

Don't think this product is currently traded on the US exchanges (CME / ICE). I could be wrong.

AlfrescoDog

This is the snippet sent to hedge fund managers and professional traders. I just added some commentary at the end, but this isn't my data. I think it's from the Fed Watch Tool from the CME group.

victoryboii

Initial jobless claims are up, numbers are coming in as expected. Rate cuts looking more likely. Would not be surprised to see the CME Fedwatch tool get updated.

Petro081

CME? Cmegroup.com?