CME

dvdmovie1

1) I think that the last 5 years have created unrealistic expectations for returns. Would be surprised if the next 5 years are as easy/lucrative as much of the last 5 have been. 2) Be flexible and understand that good returns don't just come from tech stocks. Anyone who thought this year, "who benefits from a more volatile market?" has done well in names like CME. I think too many people's investable universe is basically the same dozen or two popular names everyone else talks about and then when those things don't work they say the market is broken. There's always something working, there are times though where figuring out what that is just takes a bit more effort. Boring names can be re-rated in a hurry if they are relevant to a larger theme - you would have done better over the last couple of years in some of the IPPs (VST) or contractors (FIX, LMB) than you would have in a lot of tech stocks like Amazon, Google or Microsoft. 3) The market has become more and more "esclator up, elevator down" since Covid. You had two years (20/21) of "disruptive growth stocks only go up" (this included goofy/terrible companies, just because they were part of a popular theme.) Cathie Wood was called the next Warren Buffett and right before the top for the Ark funds, there was a Bloomberg article with fans calling her "money tree." People said this "time was different" - it was not and Cathie Wood happened to be in the right investing place at the right investing time. Don't get too caught up in hype, especially for things where they're not really going to be a thing for a long time (or things that will likely never be a thing: I saw people talking up "asteroid mining" in the bubble of 2020 and am seeing it again lately: it's a difficult business at best *on earth.*) IMO, look for businesses that solve common day-to-day issues for many people or improve upon a common service/product/issue. 4) Have an investment timeline beyond what happens to the stock in the next 15 minutes. I have been on Reddit for nearly 10 years and a post about "WHY IS MY STOCK CRATERING?" used to be someone wondering why their stock was down 10%. Now it's about why their stock is down 1%. There is a post on the front page about how much their parents holdings of NFLX/NVDA would be worth if they'd continued to hold and not sold years ago. That's years, I think a lot of people could see improvements and be less stressed by investing if they were not so intensely focused on micromanaging the very very short term. Down 1% should not even register as worth posting about imo. 5) Understand your risk tolerance. How many people sold everything at the bottom in the recent volatility? There will be opportunities to buy like about a month ago, but if you're overextended in your risk, you're going to be a seller in volatile markets too. Have a portion of your portfolio dedicated to some degree of stability. Solid, consistent companies that have delivered for shareholders over time. Have another portion of your portfolio for speculative growth. Too many people in 2020/21 were all speculative growth because "growth stocks only go up" - it works until it doesn't and then those people got obliterated in 2022. 2023/24 it happens again and then you have growth names destroyed in early 2025. VRT does amazing for a couple of years because of the data center theme and then between January and April it basically goes down 60% in a straight line. If your portfolio is entirely aggressive growth and all in in that decline, there's no room for you to dial up aggressive growth and add to a VRT or any number of other names and if you're all in aggressive growth, you might be too stressed by the decline to want to add to any such things. The accurate measure of risk tolerance is when things are like they were a month ago, too many people think about risk tolerance through the lens of "everything is going up."

TheGoodCod

So derivatives rather than financials, like FIDSX. And yeah, I can see where the next 5 years will be a struggle back to where we were. (I'm sorry to say CME didn't cross my radar earlier in the year)

dvdmovie1

If there is some degree of a deal with China, the market goes higher but I have to think at some point a fair amount has already been priced in with the move off the lows. Longer-term, I still think the next 5 years in the market is not going to be as easy or lucrative as the last 5 years but there are going to be opportunities. I mean, even with the volatililty of recent months, who benefits? CME up 21% YTD.

Elementaldose

CME corn futes volume just spiked. Another pump incoming?

thaPHENOM_39

Says CME no. Not CMG

Impressive_Note_4769

CME exchange ES or MES, also NDQ for Nasdaq

Tirikemen

The unchanged rates *was* priced in. CME FedWatch had it as a \~95% probability. What probably wasn't priced in was these two sentences: "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."

deltaalternate

The CME fedwatch wasn't pricing a cut til July, but dovish comments about the number of cuts this year will probably dump us a bit

king_of_trader

I have no clue about futures, how does anyone manage so much money on CME if it had a decent run? I made some good money the last weeks with simple calls on this stock

daboss144

CME group is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It’s probably easiest to think of it as the derivatives version of the New York Stock Exchange. All they’re saying is that derivatives used to bet on interest rate futures are priced as if there is a 4.4% chance of a rate cut. The “odds” you can get for “betting” on an interest rate cut are roughly 1/20

No-Contribution1070

How did "CME group" come up with 4.4%. I read it and don't seen anything to justify that percentage. Just trying to understand how someone could come to a very specific conclusion to the probality of rate cuts at 4.4%.

JustCan6425

[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-with-us-china-trade-talks-fed-rate-call-in-focus-235639800.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-futures-rise-with-us-china-trade-talks-fed-rate-call-in-focus-235639800.html) >Investors are now getting ready for the Fed's policy decision due at 2 p.m. ET. Traders are pricing in about 96% odds that the central bank will[ leave rates unchanged](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-powell-defy-trump-hold-053502572.html), according the [CME's FedWatch tool.](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html)

jraiv420

Bessent only pumped the post market so Schwab could use it as exit liquidity since Indo-Pak war started when CME futes was closed 

hishazelglance

What data do you have that points to us _raising rates_ exactly? Fed CME tool doesn’t show that even being closed to a thing, and people much smarter than you or I at the banks or hedge funds have come on stating there will more than likely be 3 rate cuts in the back half of the year and tariffs start to take a toll on the economy.

momsickle

It is highly unlikely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will announce an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, 2025. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to maintain the current federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 99% probability to a rate hold.   Despite President Trump’s public pressure for immediate rate cuts, the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance. The central bank is adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, awaiting more definitive signs of economic slowdown or inflationary pressures before adjusting rates. Recent data shows a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1, but also a robust April jobs report with 177,000 jobs added, indicating a mixed economic picture.   Looking ahead, the Fed may consider rate cuts later in the year, possibly starting in July, depending on how economic conditions evolve. However, for now, the central bank is expected to keep rates steady and monitor incoming data closely.  The Fed’s decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EST (8:00 p.m. CET) on May 7, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST (8:30 p.m. CET).  PUTS AT CLOSE

Transcend-mopium

CME Fed watch is literally pricing in a 96.9% chance of a pause. Cuts this month are not the expectation.

Tirikemen

People here actually think they are cutting rates Wednesday? CME fedwatch has a 96% probability for no change lol, basically guaranteed. I don't know of any institutions that expected any cuts before June.

Inner-Detail-553

On the CME, it’s ticker “CL” In your app, might be /CL

Prestigious-Pin-1053

CME BRKb IRM KR Are a few I would add that have a good track record and aren’t going away anytime soon 

DueCryptographer4907

CME watchtool is showing 3% chance of rate cuts in May, 35% June, 80% chance July/August. Looks like its pricing in the tariff effects on the economy hitting the next couple months.

Peshmerga_Sistani

Fed Watch tool over on CME has priced out two .25 cuts to just one by Sept on the back of today's Non-farm Payroll data. The market is not betting on a .75% cut by June.

css555

\>if jpow cuts next week This is how I assign credibility to various posters. CME Fed Futures are assigning 40-1 odds on that happening.

KuntFuckula

Fed will not cut next week, and is not likely to cut in June either. CME watch currently had markets forecasting a cut in June as of yesterday but has now shifted bets to first cut coming in July on the back of this hot jobs report. JPow & Co have made clear they are in no rush to cut rates as they assess the impact of the Trump tariff regime on inflation which will wake several months of inflation prints to evaluate. Pre-tariff inventories will start to run dry in June and the fed won't get a look at tariff impacts on inflation until June/August (the reports look backward a month). BLUF: until there is more data on the effects of current tariff policy and long-term certainty on tariff levels moving forward, the fed will probably not cut rates.

Mysterious_Sock_7085

[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8brTKmQu/?symbol=CME\_MINI%3AES1%21](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/8brTKmQu/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21)

isolated-cat

Yahoo Finance - Entering Friday's report, markets are pricing in a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts at its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. as I said earlier, rate cuts are priced in. the rally was a result of that. now if the news don't change, it will be flat but if no rate cuts, then we will see those last week's gains erase in like 2-3 days

Top-Database2020

Already use it - I had the CME live feed and Bloomberg terminal login when I worked at the prop store.

WickOfDeath

The USA is not a big soybean exporter... [https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht\_charts/snd\_cbt.pdf](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf) According to the CME the imports and exports are balanced out to nearly zero. Just because US soybeans are not competitive in their price unless the USD is weak against the importer's currency... if outside of the USA happens a shortage the soybeans are exported, otherwise the flow is import and net zero. Actually brasilian soybeans are the most competitive because the brasilian currency is far more weak than the USD.

bitmoji

yes like CME currency futures EUR JPY GBP CHF SEK

Icy_Mushroom_425

Yes, the loss is from interest rate differentials (carry), and it should be offset by the USD interest you earn. For FX options, you can: buy a call option on CHF, use a collar strategy or choose strike near spot. For learning, check out: CME Group's FX options guides, BabyPips, Investopedia...

this_guy_fks

none of this makes any sense. >Then I bought CME CHF futures Jun 16 2025 to lock in the exchange rates so as to hedge the currency risks. do you mean to say you bough SFM5 futures ? (i think so) when did you buy them ? USDCHF fx is a bet on relative interest rate differentials. if the expected IR differential changes, then the fx rate will change. famously the idiot in charge launched a global trade war, which saw investors flee the dollar in droves, causing dxy weakness. you can see USDCHF went from 0.88 or so before american's were "liberated (from our wealth/future/reputation)" to now 0.8233. do you think fx rates are static? they also take into account relative purchasing power (PPP) and expected trade flows.

HesFromBarrancas

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html 57% probability we cut twice by July per CME. You project your own idiotic biases without looking at the data.

Codicus1212

The few remaining humans have lost control of the algos in the NYSE, CME, and Texas stock exchange. “Traders” are now militant cult members, doing everything in their power to keep the electricity flowing to their home exchanges. Wasteland survivors are drawn in by the lights like moths to a flame, just hoping for a hot shower and something to eat besides canned beans and roasted mutated rat. Little do they know this too is per design. The adage that Wall Street eats Main Street for lunch is now, ironically, literally, true. No sacrifice is too great in the name of keeping the free markets operating and protected.

Laiyned

I don’t know why people still try to make opinions about Fed cut probabilities. CME Group lays out the probability of cuts for the next FOMC based on the way interest rates are trading. The market collective (far smarter than you or I) has already decided what the likelihood is. Vibes based trading is how people lose here.

UniqueIndividual1213

CME announced XRP futures maybe

BarbellPadawan

Bears were so excited just a bit ago when CME opened up red. Lolz.

trumpdiego

OCC Examiner: So you want to do same day options? Won't this make the markets extremely volatile and act irrationally? CME Group: Yes, but that will never happen, it would take hoards of people doing insane amount of gambling every day. OCC Examiner: Ok, that seems true, I'll approve it. WSB: Hold my beer.

no_simpsons

wait till he learns about CME

BarbellPadawan

Futes going to be +100 at CME open

Rocket_League-Champ

Also, CDOs haven’t gone anywhere, just renamed. And if the bond rates continue to increase, the collateral underwriting plenty of CME SOFR term loans will be margin called. Maybe I’m just paranoid. Idk

BeneficialClassic771

You can just hedge with CME eurusd futures if don't want to touch your portfolio. Pretty inexpensive

Even_Advertising_519

Liquidations and CME gap. Same trend pretty much every weekend.

EvolvingDior

CME is where the fun is.

OurNewestMember

I would shop around brokers offering spot FX, FX futures, CFDs and currency index options (in addition to whatever else I needed). Then open a few test FX-based positions to see which brokers and products are the most fitting and economical. Some things I'd think about: \- Is this an opportunity for currency diversification? Maybe not having so many assets and income in "A" is not so bad. \- Relative interest rates? Is the rate on "B" substantially higher than on "A"? Maybe I want to keep a small carry trade on if I already have to warehouse and transact in B now. \- Do I want to lock in a hedge/rate up front? (Even if I might lose my "B" income source before the term is up or the market could move big time, offering a better hedge entry.) Should I over or under hedge? \- Which currency pairs are available, relevant and liquid? Are there plenty of products for the A.B cross? Or will I likely need to introduce USD, EUR, etc? What is the efficient way to do this? \- How much cost and management goes into a spot FX trade? If I buy spot A.B, can I deposit my earnings in B over time to close/reduce a short B position with minimal costs? Does the broker charge an unfair rate to keep the position open? Some key concerns are the spot spreads, the broker spread added to the overnight rate, ease or difficulty in managing margin, complete set of economical cash/FX services, etc. \- Would FX futures be a cost-effective way? Eg, if A is EUR and B is USD, could I buy a CME 6E/M6E outright futures contract to hedge? Will the daily sweeps in/out of USD be a problem? Is my broker reasonable about no crazy expansions of overnight margin? If I want to reduce daily sweeps, could I use options to manage USD cashflow needs for the futures position (eg, a deep ITM Eurpoean call, or a synthetic long options spread)? Does my broker support using US treasuries for the margin deposit (so I can spend less on trading in/out of cash currency)? Does the broker support the futures physical settlement process? That could reduce my currency conversion costs. \- Are CFDs cost effective enough? Do brokers offer CFDs on currency futures instead of spot (if this would reduce my overnight cost of carry or roll cost for the position with the broker). \- Would currency index options offer more flexibility? Instead of delta-1 exposure, I could buy OTM call spreads to hedge against larger moves for a modest upfront premium (convex hedging exposure). Or I stick with delta-1 (eg, synthetic long/short on the index) but can do it cheaper than CFDs or with less cash management than futures or at a better interest rate than non-USD products. Are there tax/regulation/margin factors that would make this route more costly?

SufficientUpstairs97

My suggestion is that you can pay more attention to CME and then do some investment observations yourself through Tradingview

BeneficialClassic771

Have you found a solution? I was considering CME euro futures or Gold leaps. That being said both euro and gold are overextended and in reversion territory. Probably not the best time to enter a position

bossmanmoving

Yo mods there are no moves tomorrow CME is closed

BarbellPadawan

Is CME open tonight/tomorrow?

BigRy1986

CME Fed Watch tool pricing in an ~80% chance of +3 cuts this year from ~20% Jan 1 - mostly due to pivot from ‘tariffs cause inflation’ to ‘tariffs will cause recession’. Unless the President has some unknown views the balance sheet or open market operations, looks like Powell will probably give him all he wants (save for a weakened USD).

Open_Opportunity_126

I have a question about FX Futures Options. I'm already trading USD-pairs FX options at the CME on IBKR . Can someone explain me where are Futures/Futures Options on other major currencies (e.g. EURCHF) traded? II can't find anything on IBKR

Guinness

Sorry I’m confused, is Donald Trump the head of private companies NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOE, and CME?

beachandbyte

If you want euro look at CME 6E contracts 7-8 contracts per $1 million in hedge ~2%. Also look at /u/NuancedFlow answer above for making it even cheaper to hedge. It's best bang for your buck, and very liquid market.

HypnoticLion

C’mon. Tap it. Just once for daddy. $QQ $365. 365 days a year, Jupiter is in Gemini, plus I came across some old herbalore charts from a dude making meth and also Q = Q(?) therefore yes because the sun just released a CME ( C = 3 M = 13 E = 5 = 3(1+3=4)5 345) but it’ll be April 14th tomorrow + 14 = 359) So 359 plus 6 from Satan = 365 or $365 QQQ https://preview.redd.it/2qeq18mz6pue1.jpeg?width=968&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=12908f6be50aa27ce73abe41c5570f5f2168a8b7

YieldMeAlone

Nasdaq futures: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CME_MINI-NQ1!/

BarbellPadawan

Can’t wait for CME open so I can post about how Fukt bears are

RagingBearBull

I think the major exchanges were considering it. However the game changer would be the CME if they decided that options could be traded extended hours.

Beautiful-Parsley-24

There are ETF alternatives to CME futures, if you don't have a futures account. For example, you could buy $FXE or calls on $FXE with a normal retail brokerage account to go long on the value of the Euro and short the US Dollar.

Open_Opportunity_126

On IBKR it's easy. I can't post screenshots as I'm unable to use imgur (I'm open to advice on that). On the mobile app I look for CHF then I choose Futures, then the option chain. I successfully traded 2 contracts back in January and February (those were short term options). The only thing to remember is they are European style, you can't close your position sooner than expiry, and they are settled in cash (USD). There is no ticker, e.g. one option is CHF Mar13'28 (125000). They are traded at CME. One contract is 125,000.

dvdmovie1

There are stocks doing well, but they're just not the stocks that have done well for the last dozen years. Look at the garbage names, RSG up 20% YTD. MCK up 20%. CME/CBOE/ICE up YTD as volatility beneficiaries. I've said lately on here - not going to be a popular opinion - it feels like we're heading into (if not already in) an environment where what did well post dot com (2002-2007) might be the place to be for the foreseeable future unless something materially changes. You saw the dollar index go from around 120 to 70 in 2002-2008 post dot com as a lot of the money that went into the US during the late 1990's reversed after the dot com bust. Now we're getting into a situation where the AI theme is faltering and on top of that, the tariff situation is sending money elsewhere. The dollar index has gone from 110 to 99 YTD and I think that's creating forced selling by foreign investors who have the double whammy of a tanking index and a tanking dollar. The tariff situation is terrible, but even before that there was commentary from Bessent about the economy needing a detox (Summer of 2024, he thought the economy was in more precarious shape then people realized) and then recently, his "Mag 7 problem" comment. Not saying I share these views, but it does feel like the administration even before tariffs felt that - for some reason - it needed to pre-emptively pop what it viewed as a bubble. That started a little bit before tariffs, but the tariff situation imo massively accelerated it in a way that was disorderly. People unwound a lot of US assets in the years post dot com, but in an orderly way. I think that there is certainly something to AI, but IMO it has become clear that it is not yet translating to results for a lot of companies. I often use the Adobe example, with them calling out $125M in AI-related ARR last quarter - that's not really moving the needle and even if that doubled, it's still not. We had a period where it felt like every week there was some new massive data center investment announcement that was bigger than the previous one. When did that stop? The giant Stargate announcement in January, which was the top. San Fran Fed, 2003: "From mid-1995 to its peak in early 2002, the trade-weighted nominal dollar appreciated by nearly 40% against a basket of major currencies. Since then, the dollar has retraced more than half of the earlier gains. A falling dollar suggests that foreign investors are unwinding some of their dollar-denominated portfolio holdings in order to seek higher returns elsewhere. While a weaker dollar helps stimulate U.S. exports, it can hurt growth in foreign countries that sell goods to the U.S. If a rapid, disorderly depreciation of the dollar were to occur, foreign investors would likely demand higher risk premiums for holding dollar-denominated assets. This development, in turn, could lead to lower stock prices and higher bond yields, thereby slowing the growth of domestic demand." (https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2003/06/growth-in-the-post-bubble-economy/)

46andTwoDescending

How long was CME down for Wednesday morning??

Codicus1212

I think it’s the whole world suddenly losing all faith in the US. Wouldn’t make good economic sense to sell everything at once, even if your country is hit hard by tariffs while you hold a massive amount of US debt that is not factored into the trade deficit. But it absolutely would make good sense to scale out of positions and invest in things like CHF bonds, gold, German bund, etc. Then you factor in the hedge funds and banks that are over leveraged in bonds, expecting deflationary pressure like you said. And I believe I heard something about an African nation getting margin called by one of the big US banks? Besides that, I’d say maybe a midsized bank or two, and a few smaller hedge funds, went bust or close to it. Forced selling of bonds and stocks. Probably why TLT and SPY have been infuriatingly trading in lock step on and off again. But I don’t think any of the big boys have cracked yet. At least not publicly. It’s one thing if one mid sized bank and a few joe blow hedge funds go bust. But can you imagine if Blackrock had to increase liquidity to keep their books in order (got margin called). Hard to say exactly who will fail first. There have been some pretty concerning things going on in the markets under the table though. Like options pricing being out of whack on specific stocks at specific strikes even when adjusted for IV (but if you tried to sell at said price it would never fill). Or the entire CME being down for a while on Wednesday (but good luck finding ANTHING about that online).

ViskaRodd

Futures right now? Where are futures trading right now? CME opens 5pm central tomorrow as far as I know. Are there crypto based futures? Private swaps on Bloomberg?

BarbellPadawan

This week has been crazy… 9 more hours only until I’m Jonesing for CME open Sunday night

dvdmovie1

Bunch of gold-related names/etfs, handful of European defense names. Market infrastructure names (CME, CBOE, etc) outperforming as they benefit from the volatility. Some insurance names doing well with higher rates. Too many people I think keep wanting to double down on what has been working for years, but as I've been saying on here I think people may have to change their playbook going forward.

2ndSifter

No lol the CME shows up in a 3% tinted 4Runner with a baseball bat asking where their cash settlement is

NormVanBroccoli

https://x.com/paxtrader777/status/1910371571249578428?s=46 Former CME floor trader says we did not limit down because the S&P didnt hit 7%, so basically everything is based off S&P?

cromwest

The CME? I guess it's only for the SPX which I don't even have options for

TheDudeAbidesFarOut

CME circuit breaker at 7% 13% and 20% closes the trading day.

Riptide34

You don't need options for this, it is simple FX risk hedging. You can use the FX futures available at CME, either the Micro CAD or the full-size CAD contracts. The Micro is 10,000 CAD, full-size is 100,000 CAD. You would buy the CAD futures in the amount equal to what you want to hedge. Of course, educate yourself on the intricacies of futures, but hedging FX risk is a very common use.

WickOfDeath

There you clearly see that ChatGPT is not updated in real time... around an hour ago Trump announced that tariffs are getting to be suspended for 90 days. As I suspected, read my comments on my profile... anything can happen. I was long on WTI at $62.27 and then this retaliation tariff on China... oil droppped to 60, to 57, 56... the only reason why I didnt close that position with around -14K at the floor of the chart was my belief that "something can happen". I was long on CL in the may contract... that has first notice day in around 2 weeks. I got out with a raised SL to 62.27, then some slippage hapnened and -200. Anyway compared to the 15K and the urgency to get some money into that account for not loosing the money... just told me I was right that Trump does zigzag , tariff on, tariff off, tariff on, tariff off. We need a Trumpwatch tool like the CME Fedwatch... to tell us what comes next. My bet is... within one week China will turn into a "totally pissed off" state and will retaliate in a severe way. I try to get the option permission. That because the ES or the NQ are untradeable with their volatility but with options I have far less absolute volatility and "smaller" position size and position value movements.

MitchCurry

CME Fedwatch has probability of a rate cut going from 36.2% a month ago to 54.8% today and man, I just do not see it. Unless Powell wants to cut rates real quick so he has a little more room to increase them when stagflation hits?

wohjpt

[S&P 500 futures flash crash w/ chilling commentary from the CME](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6Pa6i-EKmk)

Warrlock608

CME

DogsAreOurFriends

I bought a bit now to get it out of my system. I’ll wait for an apparent bottom, then buy safe stocks like MSFT, Visa, CME, etc. The market will return. Just plan on long positions.

Codicus1212

That’s certainly the narrative that will be attached to what happened. But narratives are something that only happens after the fact. I want to know why the CME was down for so long today (or down at all, ffs). Everything was trading so janky in the morning. It’s almost as though they had to physically rip the plugs out of the walls to stop the algos from selling (short or otherwise) in the face of overwhelming bearish price action and sentiment… And then by the time things miraculously got restored, price action was smooth, everything was range bound, and it was as if there was a cap on how much selling could take place no matter the headlines. Even now, with China escalating the trade war and literally zero positive news futures have rallied back to a “safe” zone that isn’t bordering on 2022 bear market territory. You want to see a sell off, breaking into the range of the 2022 bear market where so many people bought the dip would see a freaking sell off like no other. But I digress. TLDR: I think 90% of funds would have blown up had the selling continued. They’re all over leveraged, just like we are (like there are entire fucking hedge funds whose main investment is god damn CVNA, let alone TSLA, NVDA, etc etc etc). WSB is like a more retarded and less technically proficient version of Hedge Funds and IB as a whole. Our advantage is the ability to pivots fast and switch from bear to bull to bear in seconds. It takes them longer. Their advantage is the ability to turn the market off and reposition/reprogram algorithms at an hours notice.

MitchCurry

CME FedWatch had a 20% probability of 4 rate cuts (to 325-350bps) 1 month ago. Probability is now 36% and I think that's nuts. Sure, rates get cut in a recession but rates get increased in an inflationary environment, right? If we enter a period of stagflation, rates are probably going to rise, not fall. I'm just a nipplehead on the internet but I just put a bet in on Kalshi that we have zero rate cuts this year. $100 wins $784 right now.

Frequent_Optimist

As of Monday, traders are betting on a 61.6% chance that the Fed will leave its rate unchanged at its next meeting of policymakers in May, according to data from CME Group. That’d down from 63.1% a month ago. \-AP

thePBRismoldy

*TRADING TECHNOLOGIES - WE ARE AWARE OF A COMPLETE OUTAGE AFFECTING MARKET DATA ON MULTIPLE EXCHANGES; NOW BEGINNING WORK TO GRADUALLY RESTORE CME* soooo fucking funny that all of the exchanges go kaput whenever it's a very volatile day. ToS has been fine from my perspective today.

mikeskeezer31

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ESW00:CME_EMINIS?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj61bemsMWMAxVOpIkEHZCGEgUQ3ecFegQIHRAb S&P futures down 5%

Kalani63

Can’t even trade the prop firms with those stupid 5% CME rule 🤬

Zeppu

Finally, the 🌽 closed the famous CME gap at 78K. It will be interesting from here.

YourUncleBuck

Thinkorswim greeted me with this message; >This is a High priority message.04/06/2025, 6:03 PM EDT CME Group U.S. Equity futures markets are coordinated with stock circuit breakers at market 7%, 13%, and 20%. The 7% and 13% circuit breakers are each followed by 15-minute trading halts; if the 20% level is reached, the market closes for the trading day. After 3:25 EST, markets will not halt unless the 20% level is reached.

johnlovesbigwomen

YOUR PUTS ARE IN KNEE DEEP CRAP. ESM25 ALREADY DOWN 50 POINTS IN PREMARKET CME FUTURES MARKET. WHICH MEANS ESM25 WILL OPEN DOWN AT LEAST 40 POINTS. NEXT TIME SKIP MONDAY AND BUY ON TURNAROUND TUESDAY! https://preview.redd.it/66e766indate1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e42c27e1418ffd6fd82c42d99fe0b56ba2fe793d

mattgivesls

Huge CME gap on corn 

Perfect_Fox2162

Well…lets see…CME’s ES(S&P Futures) will open today (sunday) 6pm EST pretty sure and that is the best indicator we will have prior to open market

bitmoji

I have made a fair amount recently on dollar going down vs major currencies on CME recently it’s not some hypothetical scenario 

JaxTaylor2

If you want to know how to trade oil you’ll learn more from watching *trading places* than you will from a Geology or Chemistry textbook—many of the most successful people in the business come from diverse backgrounds and know less about the physical process of oil production than they do the relationship between the dollar and oil. Just understand that very often the reason oil price moves has little to do with anything you’ve ever studied, just giving it to you as some cautionary advice. But long term if you do it right you can easily do very well in life. Like anything else though, trading can be learned. However, it’s a high value skill set so you have to treat it like a high value investment of your time and energy. If you’re just trying it to see how it works or as a hobby—professional traders, market makers, and institutions who know how you will think and react will have your money. Don’t use it as a dopamine fix, don’t treat it like a means to validate how smart you are, don’t expect it to go perfectly—ever, and don’t over leverage yourself, or you’ll be sorry you ever knew what a futures contract was. Having said all that, if you have $15,000 I would suggest you start paper trading for 6 months without touching the contract at all. You’ll be tempted to start using money after a couple of weeks of success but you have to resist that urge and look at your performance over a long run to see how you’ll do. Try to find someone to mentor you and learn to identify your own personal weaknesses so you can mitigate them. If I remember correctly, there was an annual oil trading competition for university students at the University of Houston; it’s been about a decade ago I don’t know if they still do it, but it’s a perfect opportunity for you to look into. iirc they don’t require you to be a UoH student to participate and the capstone was visiting the CME marker floor in Chicago. But I don’t know if they still do it. glhf

boomshiika

Can't go wrong with buying the index. But if you want individual names... I'd go with ICE and/or CME... (and maybe MSFT).

McKoijion

The two people above me are talking about Wisconsin. And it seems like a lot of people in this sub reference it. Chicago even more so, but that probably because it's a major US city that's home to CBOE and CME.

Riptide34

I'm not understanding your argument that shorting U.S. equities is also a bet on "low inflation". It seems like your actual concern is the USD weakening against the CHF, which could affect the total return when you convert back. That's just simple FX risk and can be hedged in multiple ways, the most common being FX futures. The CME has Micro FX futures in just about every major currency, so no need to be rich. I think the Micro Swiss contract is like 12,500 CHF or something around that. Of course, you'd want to educate yourself on the use of futures before actually doing it. Dollar strength/weakness against your home currency is a separate issue from equity prices. Dollar strength is not a primary driver of U.S. equity prices, especially the major indices.

nopeynopenooope

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NQW00:CME_EMINIS

mistaBeefy

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) does not currently offer 24-hour trading for S&P 500 Index (SPX) options, including SBX options. Trading hours for SPX options are typically limited to standard market sessions and do not extend to overnight or weekend periods. Therefore, purchasing an SBX option and selling it on a Saturday afternoon or a Thursday at 2 a.m. is not feasible. However, IBKR does provide extended trading hours for certain other products: US Stocks and ETFs: Over 10,000 US-listed stocks and ETFs are available for overnight trading from 8:00 p.m. ET to 3:50 a.m. ET, Sunday through Friday. Cboe Equity Index Options: Options such as S&P 500 Index (SPX), Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), and Mini SPX Index (XSP) can be traded during Cboe's extended global trading hours, from 8:15 p.m. ET to 9:15 a.m. ET, Monday through Friday. CME Group Equity Index Futures and Options: These products are accessible nearly 24 hours a day, from 6:00 p.m. ET Sunday through 5:00 p.m. ET Friday. It's important to note that while overnight trading is available for these other products, SPX options—including SBX—are not included in IBKR's overnight or weekend trading offerings. For the most accurate and up-to-date information on trading hours and available products, it’s best to consult IBKR’s platform or customer support directly.

moorhound

Holy fuck just got the CME circuit breaker alert

dvdmovie1

CME green for second day in a row.

kananishino

CME pricing in 5 rate cuts this year 

EastMathematician102

With contango, almost all futures (save those with high carry costs) exhibit contango. This doesn’t necessarily lead to NAV erosion by itself: the question is how much contango is priced in and by how much this exceeds the risk free rate. If you buy $100 of BITO the fund buys $100 of Bitcoin futures on CME. But futures trade on margin and don’t involve any initial cash outlay, so the fund still has $100 to invest which is does in short term treasuries, say yield 4% annualized. The question is whether the loss on rolling the futures contract exceeds the 4% made on holding treasuries. And you need to see how much premium the back month future trades wrt the expiring future. My understanding is the premium has been very low recently, so there is likely not much NAV erosion (and could even be the other way). If you want to see when contracts get rolled over download the fund holdings for a month and see on what day the futures contracts change.

Riptide34

There are no options for spot FX, you'd have to use the futures at CME for liquid options.

dvdmovie1

> Any smart plays majority of us aren't focused on? CME keeps making new ATHs.

KinnickHawk

Santelli. An angry MAGA Chicago CME trader

BarbellPadawan

I was trying to buy back a short position in far month silver futures. Had a GTC offsetting buy order in place for a few days. SI closes at like 34.75 or something. My limit buy order at 33.69 hit at CME open today. I’m guessing there was a sell order open at market and it’s not very liquid right at open (overnight market), so my order got filled for an insane profit and a much lower price than the market was subsequently trading at… thus my theory is it was low liquidity and a clerical error on the seller’s order entry.

BarbellPadawan

Man At CME close I was trying hard to sell some 5500 puts for tomorrow (for only a couple points each), didn’t hit **LUCKILY** despite my STO limit order being within a tick of the bid.