CME

Antique-Resort6160

QuantPedia estimates an annualized risk-free rate of 3.69% for Bitcoin when accounting for the U.S. dollar risk-free rate and using CME futures data. 

VolSignalsVS3D

(I'm out of a market making seat now) When in a MM seat, if we are "controlling" market movements it's by proxy; it's usually an unfortunate consequence of a hedging program because of a position that's too large or concentrated- and that hedging works against us, technically, by nudging price towards pinning our long. As an extreme example, once midsummer 2017 we had so much gamma from a CME flow (catalyst hedge futures call 3x1) that if the market moved up $1.00 we had something like 2500 futures to sell, and vice versa on a down move (futures to buy) - that's a miserable position to be in, and when you outsize the market you usually don't wind up very happy about it

GoZukkYourself

[CME Group to Launch Single Stock Futures ](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-to-launch-single-stock-futures-302684107.html)

AnotherDegenerateFK

CME March silver contracts coming up

LunaticBZ

Are you looking for single stock futures in your area? Use CME to find the right match for you.

drcornwallis23

BREAKING: CME Group to launch single stock futures this summer, enabling leveraged long and short trading 24/5.

The_BakedCrusader

BREAKING: CME Group to launch single stock futures this summer, enabling leveraged long and short trading 24/5.

iratezero

Why you say that? CME margin increase went into effect today and it still went up 8%, not saying it can't go down but just wondering if there was some news

StocksStormTrooper

CME’s SLV vault is almost out. Something’s gonna give.

Round-Willingness459

CME keeps raising margin requirements, currently at 18%, potentially getting 2 + more hikes by the time silver calms down if history can teach us anything. These prices are not ‘safe’ just because they’re lower than the peak, many traders who found themselves underwater suffer from sunk cost fallacy and this time is no different. What is certain though is that with the increased requirements, more forced selling and pain on the way. Silver Thursday didn’t rebound itself in a week, and this time the leverage issue is a much bigger problem than people can imagine. I don’t know what day this week we see another leg down but I’m positioned to capitalize, I think 55-60% chance we see a dip past 50 this week

Chocobops

CME is proud to introduce inverse leverage starting at .85-1

mufasis

Yes look up the CME max contracts.

FlyBlueJay

Remember what happened last time CME increased margin requirements for gold and silver?

Icy-Comfortable-714

Kinda happened with gold. CME raised margins requirements, prices dipped and margins got called all the way down. A lot of bag holding but gold will be a good play for the rest of the year so idk if anyone’s gonna loose that much. I guess the same is absolutely possible with BTC on the way down

HeavySink3303

Just IMO but the biggest risk is not Comex default (however, it is still possible) but export limitations. For example: your contracts have settled, you have your silver at CME-approved werehouse but you can't take it and ship to China/India/whereever. Then the Comex price (as well as all derivatives bound to it) will collapse. On the other hand, MCX, SHFE, SGE and physical prices will skyrocket to the Moon. Sure it is not 100% possible risk and Canadian PSLV may survive some apocalyptic scenarios but physical is always safer.

shinigami_2245

Met a dude that works at CME group while at a friends party, I looked him dead in the eyes and told him I donated my port to his company last week, I then shook his hand and said I’ll see you when the casino opens at 6 on Sunday.

BarbellPadawan

At least as reliable as CME Futes

redditmodsRrussians

Its a stealth move to box the CME out of the system. Crever Gill......

disparue

CME raising margin requirements feeding.

JJdante

Between CME and that Chinese billionaire and technical glitches in London, it feels like the rollercoaster for silver (and other metals) isn't over yet. I could see it reaching 100 again this year.

PandakatFinance

The reason why gold pumped and dollar is weak is because countries are selling dollars for gold as America is increasingly withdrawing from the rest of the world. Central banks are precisely buying 60tonnes of gold every month. It may have dipped because of the CME margin hike flushing out retail investors but institutional investors are continuing their accumulation.

redditsofficalbotmod

Gold (CME margin change), cash (brics), btc (winter), stocks (AI concerns, earnings) all being down at the same time is not normal. Gold will climb again under trump + brics. Cash might stabilize with fed change. Btc (365 days from October for bull), and stocks idfk.

gtheory1

$SLV might eat shit today due to CME margin requirement increases

iratezero

CME increasing margin requirements on silver AGAIN tomorrow. They really want to destroy the longs and crush the price.

Tradingland

$45.8 Trillion dollar of paper gold sellers having margin calls on CME margin hike 6th time in 45 days.

willyallthewei

Here’s my analysis (I own over $500k in puts on metals). You’re welcome to join the club or you can continue believing the big bank “analysts” and headlines. Metals have had a positive correlation with growth AI stocks for roughly a year now. Leveraged "hedge" funds have clearly been holding massive amounts of metals (and a little bitcoin) as a “hedge” against growth and AI stocks. No one cared, of course, that Gold prices are well past 1980 levels (after adjusting for inflation, almost 50% higher than the 1980 speculative peak) and we are in the greatest metal bubble in the history of humanity. CME and Chinese regulators have recently hiked margin rules to extremes, in exactly the same fashion as regulatory authorities did back in the 1980s Volcker crash. As a result, there's been margin based unwinds by leveraged institutions everywhere, and great AI companies are getting sold off to meet margin requirements for Metals. If you want free money, buy good AI companies right now, they are all on massive discounts (and will continue to be) as we watch Gold and Silver melt down.

PyratSteve

What cct breakers? CME doesn't have breakers like the stock markets. What do you mean?

justanaveragejoe520

CME margin requirements on silver and gold are increasing on Friday. 3rd increase in 10 days 🫡. Be prepared silver and gold bros

ButtStuffingt0n

The raising of the margin requirements by CME is super underappreciated. It might be the *primary* thing because the proximate cause of the January run in silver was leverage. Not clear that these 2x "Ultra" ETFs can play the same way now.

Bye-TYforallthefish

**we’ve had like 2 very strong Coronal Mass Ejectionsthis past year that are the equivalent of millions of massive EMPs being set off around every satellite in space and these weren’t even that big. How is a data center not getting complrju destroyed by CME‘s? like “of well that was ½ trillion dollars wasted.” what am I missing?**

justanaveragejoe520

Increased margin requirements for CME for both gold and silver starting tomorrow 😬

what_could_gowrong

Gold is safety haven, just not for the past 2 weeks because people (institutions) are leveraged to the tits to buy and shit hits the fan when Fed Chair announcement combined with CME group margin rise triggered the avalanche. Now It's again safe haven

b_fellow

Not to worry CME has increased margin requirements again.

MasterElite1

>CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver Big giant buy signal

TreGet234

CME with a steel chair!

MasterElite1

>CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver >A third MARGIN increase within 10 days. >Maintenance increases >A 11% increase for gold futures >A 20% increase for silver futures >This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb 6, 2026 🔥🔥🔥

Complex-Note-5274

CME issued new haircut rates for collateral. Even dealers' books are stressed lol. More forced selling may be in store

RipWhenDamageTaken

Metals actually took a dive because CME increased margin requirements. Idk where you’re getting your information from

DefiantDelta

gold and silver sellers get cucked by BIS and JPM and CME. bitchless behavior

NewComplaint2065

CME shorting silver during periods when they know there’s little to no support

Front_Umpire4873

These dumps are getting ridiculous each passing day , its so obvious what the CME s doing. The price suppression is unreal when compared to supply shortages and the demand across.

Alone-Supermarket-98

JPM and HSBC have been choking on large short positions in silver from much lower levels. They pressured the CME to raise margin requirements on both silver and gold on the COMEX to squeeze out leveraged paper positions in the metals.

Round-Willingness459

$SLV $45 EOW - you feel it too don’t you? Massive profit taking, CME margin requirements hikes and forced selling, pigs get slaughtered and bears feast this weekend

ElectrifiedThor

That's interesting. The CME margin changes definitely have a strong positive correlation with PM's prices. I think this is a good idea, but isn't too late when they already post the margin changes? How would you have an edge if everybody sees that at the same time, or is it a lagging reaction? Currently, I'm tracking the quarterly gold demand & supply through WCG at the global level (of central banks).

Consistent_Panda5891

Yes. You can trade CME SPX options 1h after hours, then just 1 hour of pause. And it returns the open one hour later before Japanese market opens, also is opened earlier premarket opens. Honestly you have much more exist of a bad position, or even a cash out of a good position if you think it is going to dip at open. Lately much times premarket is green and then drops

MaxxMavv

Made alot in metals also, can check my post history people really did not like my Greenland rare earth stuff /shrug. Early summer buys, and recent exits, lovely stuff, my first bag double was silver and mines early 2020. Most the panic sellers did not buy metals early 2025, they started buying metals recently and got rug pulled. I don't even attempt to explain metals and CME group margins causing the flash crash here its way to complicated for reddit main investing subs... anyway silver will settle at $40-50 range.

KMI_Dragon_Knight

[https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/investment/cboe-in-talks-to-bring-back-all-or-nothing-options-to-vie-with-prediction-markets/ar-AA1VunPL](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/investment/cboe-in-talks-to-bring-back-all-or-nothing-options-to-vie-with-prediction-markets/ar-AA1VunPL) So CBOE CME BOX et all can take more money from retail-ded investors

Frosty-Pirate444

Retails traders do have access to the same tools and data, they just do not realize, or maybe even do not care to realize. The CME and others offer institutional data that gives retail traders a true edge in the market. You may not be able to trade dollar for dollar with the institutions, but you can trade with them directionally. Anyone ever heard of the SEC filings? If traders spent more time going through the filings than they did looking at candlesticks I'm sure their trading would elevate.

Lonely_Paper_1198

I had CME puts, how the fuck is it not down they said they expect 0% revenue growth for next q and year, I get they beat but guidance is more important

Aurorion

Isn't the CME just an exchange? So it's the sellers who need to deliver. Why would it be CME's "failure"? It's not as if CME itself is the counterparty shorting all the silver futures.

iratezero

Time will tell if silver fails to recover but I'm betting it will go on to make new highs. March is still the highest demand month of the year for industrial silver, CME margin increases couldn't keep the price down for more than a day.

Fantastic-Policy3086

Gotcha. Here’s my question. China and India come knocking on CME’s door in March, demanding monstrous amounts of silver redemptions. They are asking for 4x what CME vaults are willing to redeem (or CME can clear their vaults and give out their entire supply). What does that mean for SLV. If they are last on that list of redemptions. How likely will SLV and other ETFs go down? These are paper instruments, right? Tldr; could this be a once in a lifetime bet that paper silver goes into the ditch, and we should short / buy puts? I believe strongly physical. Im not sure about paper, and want to see if my thinking is right. Im wondering about that.

Icy-Comfortable-714

Weird question but surely you can just track CME margin changes? At least in the next 18-24 months precious metals should continue their current trajectory (given everything that’s going on). That’s not really up for contention otherwise you wouldn’t be tacking gold. But basically the only major thing that’s influencing prices is just the CME margins, each time it goes up the price crashes. So either go long or try trade that noise for an upside. Arguments against going super long is that gold really has no return or growth prospects outside hedging volatility.

baconography

Maybe another bank is getting blown away? That CME rate-hike on commodities might have brought that one Chicago bank down....

Any-Emergency-3530

imo if CME ever went cash settle heavy or changed rules mid delivery, confidence would take the hit before price mechanics even matter. paper would probably decouple fast while physical does its own thing through premiums. weve already seen smaller versions of that stress play out. thats kinda the scenario where holding physical outright shines, cuz ure not relying on redemption logic or trust chains. whether u buy ad hoc or through something like bullionbox, the appeal is sidestepping that whole delivery question entirely.

Pereise1

Anyone know if CME earnings have a chance to move metals price?

Happy_Discussion_536

CME ripping to new ATHs. ICE tanking on seemingly no news. Hmmm I wonder if someone knows something.

Cheetah_in_the_wild

There is a big difference between CME and SLV, CME is a future promise of silver, which if it fails to deliver will decouple from the physical market. While SLV on the other hand, if there is buying pressure, more shares will be created for which silver will already be delivered. They actually have a daily updated amount of silver on the website, and you can even see all the bars in the bar list. So where CME works on promises of silver being delivered in the future, SLV is settled within days. Therefor the silver/ounce price of SLV is more related to the silver spot marker (XAG/USD) than it is to the futures marker. Next to note XAG is london settled silver, just like the majority of the SLV holdings, while CME is in the US

Front_Umpire4873

It really should just to fuck with CME lmao

Spirited_Let_2220

CME put tighter margin requirements on silver and gold futures a little bit before the crash, they did the same last time and it was a main factor in silver crashing years ago. Basically, wealthy investors and institutions are long metal futures for weeks and in the money on them and then the margin to hold that position goes up but they usually don't get margin called because they're so much in profit that they're fine until they are not. The problem starts when silver or gold start to sell off. Selloffs trigger stop losses triggering more selling triggering more stops and then people start to get margin called because of tighter margin requirements so they sell contracts to get out of margin call and that triggers more selling, more stop losses, more margin calls, etc. This just started, it's going to play out for another 2-3 weeks.

Full_Muffin7930

The precious metals sell-off that began on Friday, January 30, 2026, and extended through Monday, February 2, 2026, is being characterized by analysts as a 6-sigma to 10-sigma event. In financial modeling, a "6-sigma" event is a move that ***statistically should occur less than once every 1.3 million years***, though market veterans often point out that "fat-tail" distributions make these events more common in reality than in Gaussian models. In the Monday after the historic "Black Friday" precious metals sell-off, and in anticipation of CME's impending 30-36% margin requirement increase for both gold and silver respectively upon market close (putting further stress on already stressed highly leveraged carry-traders in the wake of last week's sudden, unexpected 4-sigma Yen strengthening) the consequences were expected to be profound and long-lasting. However, the market declared "lmao fuck that" and surged ahead violently. Market commentators attribute the gains to hedge fund managers and their junior analysts alike all putting their credit cards in a basket, before collectively maxing them out to buy more stocks at 5-10x leverage, confident their future gains will outpace the hopeful 10% interest rate cap that the President hinted at, once, a while ago.

Significant_Treat_87

CME keeps raising the margin reqs aka “performance bond”. First it was dollar value increases early in Jan, then they switched it to 5%, then 6, now 8. With the psycho bull run last week it meant people had to keep putting in more and more money to maintain their futures positions.  There was a big but brief fall at the beginning of jan when they started raising the requirements so it kind of makes sense that raising it to 8% during an epic bull sprint would have an effect. The Warsh nomination and realization we weren’t going to get an absolute sycophant added fuel to the fire (although I want to note that Warsh has been calling for cuts lately and I think his desire to cut the fed’s balance sheet more is interesting given we just ended QT and started “non-QE temporary bond buying” because liquidity has gotten so tight. On top of that I’m not even convinced Warsh won’t be Trump’s lapdog… the guy has ties to Epstein directly and also indirectly via Ronald Lauder — Warsh is married to Lauder’s daughter. Lauder convinced Trump to go after Greenland and is also tight with Leslie Wexner. The whole thing is way more sus than the media is reporting IMO.)

Spiritual-Seesaw-742

I hope so, but I wouldn't be surprised if it craters, CME margin hike after market close

softboiledjadepotato

when does CME increase margin requirement for SNDK??

jargonhess

I bet SLV could be U3 halted if the CME can't deliver silver. U3 halts can last forever.

bentaxleGB

They are authorised "bullion banks" (i.e authorised by the CME.) Scroll down click on "silver stocks" it will open a spreadsheet. [https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/operations-and-deliveries/registrar-reports.html)

callsonreddit

Hope CME raises margin requirements for BTC /s

jargonhess

I wonder if an ETF like SLV holds a lot of CME paper? If a force majeure happens at the Exchange and settles in cash if that means SLV stays down while physical silver never went below $100. Seems like a big risk factor at this stage.

qx2

CME Clearing’s latest performance-bond notice showed initial and maintenance margin on its COMEX gold contracts rising to 8% from 6% for standard (non-high risk) accounts, while COMEX silver margins rise to 15% from 11%, with the changes effective after Monday’s close. Margin is the cash collateral a trader must post to hold a futures position; raising it can force investors to sell to meet a bigger bill.

qx2

It’s a fake pump, CME margin requirement takes effect tonight.

Sidney_Godsby

Is the CME in the room with us now?

RoastMyPortfolio

In the US the CME just slammed margins across precious metals This kills leverage, forces liquidations & boosts volatility. Not bullish, not bearish — just stress. Margin hikes are just a tourniquet. It won't stop the bleeding if the physical demand is real.

RoastMyPortfolio

The CME just slammed margins across precious metals. This kills leverage, forces liquidations & boosts volatility. Not bullish, not bearish — just stress. Margin hikes are just a tourniquet. It won't stop the bleeding if the physical demand is real. Stay safe, darling. Let's get physical! 🔥

Bravadette

CME Group is raising margin requirements for precious metal futures effective at the close of business on Monday, February 2, 2026.

Ok-Dimension2964

This is a solid breakdown of the plumbing, and I agree that margin mechanics and forced deleveraging were doing most of the damage. When exchanges change the rules mid cycle, price discovery almost always gets distorted I would add one nuance though. These kinds of margin cascades usually do not start in a vacuum. They tend to hit hardest when positioning is already crowded and liquidity is thinner than it looks on the surface In that sense, the CME changes and the China liquidity trap explain the acceleration, not necessarily the initial vulnerability. Once leverage is embedded across regions, it does not take much to turn a repricing into a disorderly unwind I agree that pinning this on a Fed nomination is lazy storytelling. What happened looks far more like a systemic stress in the paper market than a shift in silver’s underlying value

tennepenne1

Im shocked everyone including the media keeps saying it was the new fed pick. Almost so pervasive feels like propaganda. Go to CME website and plot all the margin hikes on gold and silver since the October double top on gold. Margin calls happen at 10:30am eastern. Good luck to everyone still long in 11 hrs.

herrrrrr

no one going to mention that LME outage right after the opening on thursday night? Thats the reason behind this drop. Just like When the CME had a cooling issue for hours on thanksgiving night when silver breached 54.30 and ever since then its been a parabolic rise...

Routine-Abalone132

Looks like Chinas silver futures are not trading. Expect a repetition of friday with the new CME margin hikes. A -15-20% dip in silver is almost inevitable.

Icy_Target_6512

A bunch of slow people in here seem to have not a clue about why it fell. It’s because of the CME raising margin requirements that caused massive liquidations in silver. When silver goes down 25% in a day, you bet your butt golds going down too…

Godslil

You guys thought silver having a -28% day meant we'd have a normal Monday??? CME forced massive positions to be closed, many at tremendous losses.

D_Pablo67

CME raised the margin requirement

MarketCrache

Yes, we know. Here's why Silver / [$SLV](https://x.com/search?q=%24SLV&src=cashtag_click) crashed today: Jan 13th: CME shifted from fixed-dollar margin to percentage based margin. This scaled collat requirements with contract value, effectively capping leverage as it goes higher. The capital required to maintain a single COMEX contract increased in tandem, creating an environment where even minor price drops would trigger massive margin calls. Jan 27th: CME had increased the maintenance margin percentage twice this week to ensure "adequate collateral coverage" amid extreme volatility. This forced leveraged positions to liquidate their long positions or post substantial additional capital. There were five margin hikes within nine days that created a "coiled spring" of potential selling pressure. Today: Western markets focused on the Federal Reserve, but the new Fed chair likely did not play much of an impact as this is just noise. Pricing dislocations happened in Asian markets. UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund traded at 36-64% premiums over SHFE contracts. And this was the main source of silver exposure in China. On January 30, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange implemented an emergency full-day trading halt for the SDIC Silver LOF. This suspension created a "liquidity trap" for Chinese institutional and retail traders. Unable to liquidate their domestic holdings, these participants were forced to dump [$SLV](https://x.com/search?q=%24SLV&src=cashtag_click) and COMEX futures to raise cash or hedge their exposure. TLDR: The [$SLV](https://x.com/search?q=%24SLV&src=cashtag_click) crash of January 30, 2026 today was not a failure of silver's fundamental value, but a failure of the "paper game" that dictated price discovery. CME hiking margin requirements repeatedly and the China liquidity trap led to cascading margin liquidations that caused selloffs of leveraged positions. Other events such as the Fed chair was likely known awhile, looks to be "narrative noise" regarding what actually happened. Today was a "Paper Game" failure and leverage used to trade it was systematically wiped out by exchange rules.

baconography

CME raised borrowing rates on Thurs night on all metals futures contracts by 22%. Probably because they know there isn't remotely enough physical metal for delivery in case contracts or AND they can't be on the hook in case leveraged speculators get blown out in either direction. Chinese houses did something similar, but they know the West is way more leveraged. China scoops up cheap metals after it is all said and done.

baconography

They will mock round-eye for years for dumping it based on CME paper

maubis

4pm EST, 5pm EST. Futures, Spot. Remember the above as it clears up lots of confusion. The Futures market closed at 4pm EST. Any change is reflected as % change from that close. The spot market on Friday closed at 5pm EST. Any change you see now is a % change from that close. Futures currently up (from the 4pm EST Friday futures price). You can see this by going to the CME: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.quotes.html Meanwhile, spot is down if you are using Kitco or anything else referencing spot. The two prices are coming back in line with one another. The whole 4pm/5pm close from previous always causes confusion, especially if the market has volatility in that last hour.

Chitikii

CME margin increases are percentage based now, and with current silver prices, the margin requirement (after Monday increase) of a 5k ounce contract is lower than what it was before the dump. This is disincentivizing leverage, both ways. I wouldn’t jump to the trying to collapse price narrative, more likely they want to decrease volatility

IntrepidSoda

Will find out 62mins - waiting for CME open

Long_Dong_Silver6

Probably going to continue crashing with the new CME margin requirements and the fact that it got pegged at -9% with a circuit breaker during a special trading session in India today

BarbellPadawan

Can’t wait for CME open

albernazcapaz

I don’t think this move is best explained by “rates + strong dollar + sentiment” alone. What stood out to me is how the drop happened. The key trigger looks mechanical rather than fundamental: a forced liquidation in the paper futures market. JP Morgan, one of the largest short holders in silver, closed its short position ALMOST EXACTLY at the market bottom on Friday. The biggest short exited at the moment the market was collapsing. 🤨 On the same day silver and gold collapsed, the CME (where silver futures trade) aggressively raised margin requirements. That means traders suddenly had to post much more cash to hold the same positions. Most leveraged traders couldn’t, so they were forced to sell. That creates a cascade: selling pushes price down → more margin calls → more forced selling → more stops triggered. Once that starts, fundamentals don’t matter in the short term. This exact pattern has happened before: • 1980: exchanges restricted buying → silver crashed ~80% • 2011: CME raised margins 5 times in two weeks → silver fell ~50% • Dec 2025: margin hikes during thin trading → sharp drop → quick recovery So structurally, this looks like another engineered flush of leverage, not a sudden change in supply/demand. But anyways… Physical silver supply is still tight. Industrial demand (solar, EVs, data centers) is still there. We’re still running multi-year deficits in physical silver. The crash just reset positioning in the paper market. The Fed chair news and dollar strength probably acted as the narrative spark, but the actual weapon was margin hikes and forced liquidation. That’s why the move was so violent and fast. So to your question, in the short term this can still overshoot lower if liquidation isn’t finished. In the medium term, unless the physical shortage disappears, this looks more like a positioning reset than the start of a true bear market. In other words, it smells much more like a structural flush than a macro trend reversal. If you want more info take a look at JP Morgan’s involvement in the silver market and how may times they had to pay several fines and lawsuits for manipulating it.

Maximum-Side-9391

TBD...Looks like the CME is back hiking margins to F the little guy just trying to increase the SLV value he inherited from his parents

Lindylass

There is no better alternative than physical. Go read the Ounz prospectus. I’m sorry I invested in it. But gold is over bought. This might not be the best time to go in. Also I expect it to drop CME increased margins, so small traders may be leaving the trade, especially on Monday.

ptnyc2019

This is a huge increase, about 33%. I think this means gold and silver will drop 5-10% at least on Monday and force an equities sell off as well. Could be quite ugly. You’d think with the recent market turmoil, the CME would give more than 24 hours notice of such big margin increases. That way, repositioning and hedging could be a bit more orderly and retail does not have to suffer collateral damage from the over-leveraged big traders. Such a powerful way to move markets: suddenly increase margin requirements. I wish I knew insiders at CME, so I could have aggressively shorted metals and SPX on Friday afternoon.

Scary-Elephant2831

I agree Friday’s price action was extraordinary, but I think some of the doom-and-gloom commentary is overreaching. First, I don’t think this move has anything to do with Kevin Warsh personally driving rates lower or higher in the near term. Even if he’s perceived as a hawk, the Fed is a committee. Any meaningful rate shift still requires votes, data alignment, and credibility, not just the chair’s preferences. Markets often oversimplify that dynamic. Second, the correction narrative ignores the structural backdrop. Physical silver demand hasn’t broken. Industrial demand from AI, solar, and electronics remains strong, and supply is still constrained. Fresnillo cutting 2026 guidance matters, and Shanghai premiums staying elevated during the selloff suggests physical tightness hasn’t gone away. Third, the most immediate driver of Friday’s move looks technical, not fundamental. CME margin changes forced leverage unwinds, and when that happens in a thin, crowded trade, price action can get violent very fast. That doesn’t automatically invalidate the longer-term thesis. I’m not saying metals go straight back to ATHs, but the debasement trade, geopolitical uncertainty, and a multipolar monetary system are still very much in play. That keeps precious metals relevant even if the path is volatile.

usa_reddit

Temporal proximity does not imply causality. I think your theory is correct. The crash was a structural liquidation, not a macro sentiment shift. The nomination of Kevin Warsh was merely the catalyst (the match); the fuel was the leverage dynamics and margin changes engineered by the CME. Without the margin hikes, a hawkish Fed nominee would likely have caused a dip to $110, not a crash to $80. Putting them both together caused the historic dip but there would have been a significant dip either way.

KingMonkey777

China does not trade gold in a way that causes a 600$ global futures-driven move in 48hrs. Chinese professionals - banks, funds, and state-linked institutions mainly trade: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) They cant and are not the primary drivers of comex gold futures , GLD options , CME options flow. Physical flows (China/India) move price slowly. Futures, options, and leverage move price fast. That kind of speed only comes from futures, options, and leverage. This post is not intended to pin point who were the main drivers of this drop

calmmindseter

Yeah, that Friday drop in SLV and GLD was brutal, especially silver's plunge looking like forced unwinds from the CME margin hikes and leverage getting squeezed out. I agree the physical side still looks solid with ongoing industrial demand from AI/solar/electronics, plus that persistent Shanghai premium showing real buying pressure despite the paper market chaos. The structural supply shortfalls aren't going away quick, so this feels more like a violent reset than the end of the road. What do you see as the next trigger for a rebound?

Typical-Principle-17

Well you just bought shares: you can just chill out and hold them for few months to years before they become fruition. If stars were aligned you will be in profits in next few months or at least break even Where as someone who traded/played long futures with silver on Friday with margin enabled. CME itself have changed the margin requirements twice on the day, that’s the another big thing.

MizDiana

1 - Physical silver purchased by collectors & artists account for some of the demand. If you're looking at just industrial use & mining, there is a surplus. Meaning that if you count people who have silver coins and other silver items as part of the above-ground reserves, the reserves are extremely large and there isn't a supply shortfall if prices are high enough. In other words, predicting a future supply shortage is actually question of predicting investor interest + (if prices go high enough) how much & how quickly industry can alter designs & utilize alternative materials in the case of high prices. 1a - The price most commonly quoted for Shanghai for American investors includes a 13% tariff on the importation of silver into China. That + the markets not being open at the same time accounts for the entire difference between the two markets. 2 - Silver started falling before Warsh was picked. It started falling on the Shanghai exchange BEFORE U.S. markets opened on Friday. (For at least the week prior, silver had risen during Asian market hours & fallen during New York/London trading.) That was because China closed an exchange that traded various commodities (including silver) on margin. Basically, they ended all leveraged trading of silver on their markets. That said, long-term you may be right on Warsh. But the recent crash only looks Warsh-related if you are looking only at the American market & not paying attention to the (larger) Chinese & Indian markets. 3 - CME's action was nothing compared to China ending leveraged trading. The real question is what Shanghai will do when the markets open on Monday (Sunday evening, U.S.A. time). Frankly, I think they'll follow U.S. markets this time & drop a bit more.

Downtown-Rabbit-6637

Great insights. My view on precious metals is slightly different. The volume traded on Friday is unlikely retail absorbing institutional dump. The scale and speed of the price action was indicative of violent unwinding of the leveraged trade due to CME’s margin rule change.