Reddit Posts
What will be the outcome of next week?
WOW! Great research article about YCRM PickleJarLive R/M
DCF Model in Python with Monte Carlo Simulation
DCF Model in Python with Monte Carlo Simulation
DCF Model in Python with Monte Carlo Simulation
What stocks/private companies do you wish BRK would have bought (or owned a majority of) in the last few decades?
CMG, CROX, LYV: I tried to diversify, but all of my stocks went down by 10%
Chipotle $CMG and McDonald $MCD Will Show Consumers’ Appetite for Spending:
Sold my ATVI stock and bought CMG, CROX, LYV, and NVIDIA
What are the best stocks that have less market cap than the 184B that NVDA jumped in one day?
Started with $12 last Monday. Bought 2 SPY 410p for Tuesday then started blowing up.
McDonalds vs Chipotle vs Competitors - How big are they, sorted by revenue. CMG most expensive PE
McDonalds vs Chipotle vs Competitors - How big are they, sorted by revenue. CMG most expensive PE
Hot Stocks: FRC plunges again; CMG, MANH surge on earnings; ENPH drops
Is Chipotle ($CMG) the next Apple ($AAPL)? Let me explain…
This Restaurant IPO Stock Is 3 Times Better Than Chipotle In 1 Key Metric | The Motley Fool
PTLO recently compared to the powerhouse CMG. Worth looking into and watching? I’m personally a big fan!
This Restaurant IPO Stock Is 3 Times Better Than Chipotle In 1 Key Metric | The Motley Fool
Bear Call Spread Questions that is about to expire?
2023-03-13 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Pershing Square Holdings - Follow Bill Ackman’s portfolio at a significant discount
FEW MILLION DOLLAR SHORT POSITION ON MARGIN. UPDATED POSITIONING.
The ‘Next Warren Buffett’ Curse Isn’t Always Fatal - Washington Post
It’s Bean a Great Year for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
It’s Bean a Great Year for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Decided to yolo my last 5k at $CMG . Holding thru earnings.
In this market growth stocks are dead, cash flow is king. Here are a few names I may sell puts on
Chipotle (CMG) is fuk. 10 bagger on Oct 28 Puts
Minimum Wage Will Increase Very Soon
The Captain's Guide to Playing Earnings
Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Chipotle — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
$CMG Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Chipotle 150k Puts Yolo — the tech stock short of the century aka the millionaire maker
Absolutely wasted my Webull account on yolo CMG puts 🤡😭
Absolutely wasted my Webull account on yolo CMG puts 🤡😭
Option trading claims my entry credit is $0, can someone explain.
$CMG I think Chipotle was dropping hints on their app
Expected moves. Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Shopify and more.
This ad has been brought to you by the shareholders of CMG and MCD
Did some technical analysis on Chipotle $CMG, here's what I found:
Chipotle’s ($CMG) PE ratio is 69.420 and I just bought a single $17,100 PUT, did I just play myself?
Chipotle’s (CMG) PE ratio is 69.420 and I just bought a single $17,100 Put contract, did I just play myself?
Chipotle analysis and valuation - A great, but overvalued company (price $1500 vs value $878) -$CMG
Robinhood: Please bro we don’t have the cash rn to pay you can you just like gamble, I mean invest, for a little longer
This is the type of quality CMG has had for months. PUTS ON DECK
CMG Earnings this week - who want PUTS with me?
The People Vs. Chipotle: Bearish Into Earnings
Gimme you're top 3 stocks with a market cap of 1B to 25B
Thoughts on a portfolio based mainly on Projected 5-Yr EPS Growth?
Can we talk about three? $PLNHF - $GRAMF - $MMNFF
Gay Bear Profit on CMG earnings for Tendies
Did Chipotle (CMG) Burritos Shrink or Did They Accidentally Give Me a Junior Burrito? (Inflation-related)
Someone Please Tell Me They Accidentally Gave Me a Junior Chipotle Burrito Instead of a Regular-Size One, This Thing is Tiny. (Inflation-related) CMG
What do you feel have been your 5 most profitable tickers this year? Whether it be from trades or long term hold? Let us help each other
What do you feel have been your 5 most profitable tickers this year? Whether it be from trades or long term hold and you still have not sold. This is a good way to brain storm and see if there is a way to broaden your watch list and get an idea of others' Winners.
Mentions
$CMG will be the new $LULU for value investors
I’ve been investing in the food sector. Door dash and CMG. No matter what, people want food. Also door dash tends to operate worldwide while Uber and Grub, more metro. Yea door dash and CMG could lose profits but these are grounded company's. Worse comes to worse they merge or sold off to another big company
#Recession is in on Main St, SBUX like CMG like any $15.99 salad chain LMAO🤌
The US market rally is being driven by AI capex spending on the AI space( investing in AI power grids, deals with semicon chips for AI, etc.). But if you look at the "real economy stocks", they are reflecting the recession already. Look at Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG), fell a lot after earnings, management said that the 25y to 35y old clients are getting priced out. Look at Doordash movement after earnings. I think after the Open AI ipo or early next year, we might experience a large correction. The Trump Tariffs are starting to take effect.
Agreed. No way it’s 3%. Execs on the CMG call said we’re at mid single digits.
Thanx to Taco and his minions on the economy,, I'm down 3K on my CMG, Thank you for your attention to this sht post.
CMG been held at 30.1 for over an hour now crazy how they can hold it just above 30 to wreck all short options like exactly at 30.1 it look at those candles drawing a straight line sideways
You could abort your CMG stocks for a -$600 loss too. 🤣🤣
Where does CMG stand on this issue?
Made good money the past few weeks selling moderately OTM calls on SG and CAVA. Might add CMG to the mix. Fast casual chains are toast for the foreseeable future.
IMO I don't see CMG being around too long or their stock going up anytime soon. There's only so much you can do with a "burrito bowl". I think the fad of that company is dying down, it will hang around for a while and end up like a ChiChi's or TGIF. While it's in it's own niche in a way with what they offer, I think the hype of it is going away or gone and don't see a potential for substantial growth.
I don’t see CMG going up anytime soon. The restaurant business is hurting given all the negative news in their target demographic. The new CEO hasn’t shown any signs that he can innovate the business. May sell some puts if they’re in the $20s
Looks like CMG and CELH cause Cancer
CMG and CAVA are oversold
You all just inverse me....PINS, CMG and now CELH......2k DOWN ON THESE MAFAS
CMG went from startup to growth to maturity and now is on the decline phase till it dies or rejuvenates itself.
BA, SNAP will for sure bounce back to his cost basis. CMG, and DKNG probably will eventually if he just holds. The other ones idk
$DASH, $MCD, $CMG, and others are all reporting decrease in consumer demand. Government shut down is dragging on and other factors are impacting the consumers ability to spend. What makes you think Kristy Kreme will be better positioned?
CMG oversold as fuck. Might pick up a few 1/16/26 calls to swing & pick up a burrito bowl for the cause.
Absolutely. LULU, ONON, SG, CAVA, CMG all look like multibaggers rn
#TLDR --- **Ticker:** DASH **Direction:** Down **Prognosis:** Buying long-dated butterfly put spreads targeting a drop to the $200-$220 range. **Thesis:** If people are too broke for a $CMG burrito, they're definitely too broke to pay for delivery.
33% more expensive is about right. Cost-wise, CMG is closer to MCD than CAVA. I think Cava's food is great, but 33% is a different price point. CAVA could be in for a couple more rough quarters.
My CMG port is down 54% and 7k. Time to sell or double down?
After CMG numbers, I dont know how anyone thought CAVA was going to beat.
i like CAVA lotto calls for ER today. Downside already got priced in from sympathy sell-off from CMG. I'm in 11/7 55c 200 contracts
CMG holding strong while everything else is bleeding
CMG looks like a sure play at this point. Green in this slaughter
Imagine buying calls on CAVA after CMG got wrecked lol
CMG up 0.4 should be back to even by the time Taco is out of office. Keep shortin those calls.
CAVA and CMG have consistently fucked me harder everyday than my girlfriend
News flash we’re already in a recession regardless of what clowns on Fox News want to say. CarMax and CMG made that clear.
I just had chipotle. CMG deserves to die. Never have I been this disappointed in a meal before.
How retarded are McDonald's calls? They're still offering reasonable deals in contrast to CMG and Wendy's. Plus monopoly promo go Brrr
A year ago he was hired with an insanely rich contract, because the foolish board thought he would make the stock rise like CMG did -but they don’t really understand he didn’t do that and has a poor record of dealing with problems, especially those that Starbucks has. Of course it had crazy work from home, private jet when needed perks. Everyone who knows the problems with Starbucks thought he might have the sense to identify major problems and solutions. Way overpriced, shitty taste, slow lines, privilege fatigue, competitors, low value. Nope. He said there’s no obvious problems and he was not going to do any cuts to locations or staff. Instead his plan was: keep the prices high, get rid of all discounts and promotions and loyalty deals - which he said was clogging up the lineups. Next, remind customers “It’s time to come back to Starbucks”. Uh, why? We’re sick of you, and you’re not offering a reason. It’s like you think we owe you. He said he wanted the staff to work harder on the guest experience, spending more time buttering up customers... But also he wanted the staff to speed up the lines. Contradictory. He said the staff are the key, and he was keeping everybody and elevating them to some corporate gibberish “Green Apron Standard” The last part of his big idea was to get rid of options and go back to writing names on the cups. Except then he had to delay that because he said he couldn’t figure out how to get sharpie markers to all the stores. Like, they couldn’t be included with the daily shipments of cups and lids and napkins? Seeing him struggle with this was a revelation. Of course these plans haven’t worked. As for no cuts, one of his first moves was to signal that he wants to get rid of overseas markets including China and sell them for cash. Then he announced he’s slashing tons of locations here. Then he announced firing thousands of “green apron” staff. Coffee drinks priced as much as a meal at other places is not working. So his most recent idea: upcharge for protein to be added. Don’t know if this will be powder or some kind of slurry. Either way, it’s not going to fool people into thinking they’re getting a meal out of a latte. And upcharging on drinks that are already too expensive isn’t the stratagem he thinks it will be. His plan appears to be goosing the balance sheet with temporary one-time cash injections from selling off stores and firing workers. If those bloodletting moves push the share price up, he’ll declare victory. And lazy pundits probably will too.
had paper hands on CMG puts. Diamond handing AAPL, META, MSFT, and VRT calls. Portfolio hard V
We haven’t seen levels of cope this high in ages. Anyway, I’m loading up $CMG Chipotle. Way undervalued. Due for a flip of the script soon. Too big to fail.
Exactly. Quality and value and reputation went down the toilet for the last several years of former CEO Brian Niccols time at CMG. Then he fled to Starbucks and has been stinking it up there for the past year.
I think there's some issues with Chipotle that are unique to Chipotle, but when you look across the restaurant group, it's not exactly encouraging for spending. I don't know if you get some majorly negative read this quarter from Uber, but if Uber said they're *starting* to see some people pulling back from spending on taxis for their tacos, wouldn't be surprising. "and that traffic is collapsing according to CMG's latest report." I don't think that's the case at all. Traffic from younger people may have been weakening yes, but it wasn't so much that CMG didn't still have positive (albeit slightly at +0.3%) comps. Somewhat related, higher priced grocery store (SFM) in the last 6 months looks like a healthcare company with a failed phase 3 trial and FCFS (largest pawn shop) had a record quarter the other day. So do I think Uber will crater? I don't think it's going to report some major negative quarter, but wouldn't surprise me if it's a decent/good quarter and had some forward-looking commentary that's less than fantastic.
Yeah or $CMG is looking for excuses. “It’s not our fault for our terrible inconsistency and high prices! It’s the consumers fault”
Over here: NFLX (still too low before the split), GOOGL, CMG dip, ROCK calls.
If I were bullish, I'd probably transition to two PMCC by selling the shares and use the money to buy two LEAPS (e.g. Jan '27 35C at $5.20) and sell shorter dated calls (e.g. 19Dec 42.5C at $0.16). This would lower the break even price to around 40, and also more than halve the capital at risk. The short calls offset the theta decay for the leaps. Maybe consider lower strikes for more credit/higher theta decay, but then you risk having to close at a loss if the stock runs (just like with a regular CC). (But how likely is it to fully recover in six weeks?) You may also consider buying even more LEAPS, and sell calls at a lower strike, e.g. buy 4 leaps and sell 3 37.5C. Break even at 36-37, and still only ~2k invested. Risk somewhat comparable to selling another CSP, as you suggested. But I'm not that bullish for CMG...
I was looking at CMG and thought there was some room there for a swing but its performance the past month drove me away from the idea. What’s your thought process? I might have to re-evaluate
Buying 100 shares of CMG this week, what could go wrong
These are American style options, you were deep in the money for some time now and did not take any action. CMG has not been over $44 since August this year. Basically meaning you are comfortable owning CMG at $44. Your best friend right now is the fundamentals and macro environment. If you still see CMG as a long term hold then you stick with the shares sell some Covered calls at a strike slightly above the current strike and keep rolling to make sure you don’t get assigned below $44 which is your cost basis. Best strategy I see here. Check out [option buddy](https://optionbuddy.ai/) we break this logic down for you.
DASH going to die like CMG- no more SNAP/EBT and the current state of the economy is people who can afford to pay $50 for 1 meal from doordash and people who have to drive for doordash to pay their bills..
I am on the same boat as you are. I currently hold 300 assigned shares with average price of low 40s. Yes things looks grim for CMG right now. Based on their last earning call, I have a feeling they are going to have some more pain for next quarter or two. For now I am not doing anything, but If price goes to 28 or lower, I might add more. I am a believer that it will bounce back soon. In 2015 CMG had 50% price crash within a matter of few months but it bounced back. I understand it's a pain to see your holding go down by 25% or more. But it is part of the process. I will start selling covered call if the price comes close to my purchase price.
Nah the CEO left bc he knew CMG was fuk, and he took cash upfront to try at starbuk which was already fuck too... The CEO is very smart, the rest really dumb to trust him
# Weekly Markets Update * Major US indices continued grinding higher despite government shutdown concerns * S&P 500 managed modest gains for the month, driven primarily by technology and AI-related stocks * Equal-weight S&P 500 and small/mid-cap indices fell over 2% for the week, giving up October gains * Technology sector strength masked significant weakness in cyclical and interest-rate-sensitive areas **Technology & AI** The AI theme remains the market’s dominant driver: * Nvidia [NVDA -1.78%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/NVDA) briefly crossed $5 trillion market cap after GTC conference announcements * Strong earnings across the sector with robust demand outlook through 2026 * Qualcomm [QCOM 1.63%↑](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/QCOM) announced plans for proprietary AI chip; AMD [AMD -1.12%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/AMD) partnering on government supercomputers * ICE Semiconductor Index up over 10% for the month **Capital-Intensive Industries** Tech companies’ A/I spending is creating spillover demand in adjacent sectors including power generation, electrical equipment, and construction. **Consumer-Facing Sectors** Mixed signals from corporate management teams: * **Resilient**: Mastercard [MA 1.03%↑](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/MA) reported healthy spending with 9% gross dollar volume growth * **Under Pressure**: Chipotle [CMG -2.56%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/CMG) noted widening gap in frequency between income cohorts, with low-to-middle income guests reducing visits * **Challenging**: C.H. Robinson [CHRW -0.55%↓](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/CHRW) cited continued soft freight environment with truckload rates “bouncing along the bottom” * **Affordability Issues**: Homebuilders (D.R. Horton [DHI 0.89%↑](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/DHI), Builders FirstSource [BLDR 2.93%↑](https://substack.com/discover/stocks/BLDR)) emphasized ongoing affordability concerns and elevated inventories
# I love at all those baggies worldwide when I am looking at charts.... there must millions and millions of baggies out there.... GOSH NKE, PEP, CMG, NESN, DIS, PG, LVMH \--> almost every stock except mag7 has been a baggy creator the last 5 years
Sounds good in theory but after the stock crashes OTM call premiums will be so low you can’t get much spread. Looking at $CMG as an example, you can only get 1$ spread. Do you usually wait for some bounce, what spread and DTE do you target? Good idea for BuyWrite in general!
What was your (worst case scenario) plan going into the CSP trade? And, other than taking the L on the CSP -- and the especially rough week CMG has had -- has anything altered that outlook? I'm not strictly opposed to holding onto CMG and waiting for a better time to sell covered calls against CMG holdings -- but I'd keep that on a fairly short leash. It is important to note that CMG shares have lost about half of their value in the last year in a steady decline. Any recent 'wait and see' approach over this period would have resulted in seeing things get worse. The most obvious alternative scenario would be to simply cut your losses in CMG and move on. A modified alternative approach would be to cut your losses in CMG and directly redeploy that (remaining) capital into something that you've scouted out as more promising. Any notions that we need to hold on to drawdowns until they recover is faulty at best. That money/drawdown in CMG is gone -- for now -- not waiting for you to reclaim it. The best solution for your situation may be to assess your outlook on CMG going forward, determine how holding onto the shares affects your trading/portfolio in the near-- to longer term, and concluding whether holding on to CMG shares might be a best (or even good) use of your associated financial capital (and time) for the immediate/foreseeable future.
Same, keeping the shares and will make an alert to sell CCs when it makes sense. I don’t think CMG is going anywhere and stock dropped “enough”
What was the big idea going into the trade on CMG
CMG and Cava all taking nosedives along with BBW shedding 30% of its value in a month going into this holiday season should be warning everyone that something regarded this way limps. Plus government is still jerking off in the St. Louis airport bathroom with a wide stance while everything is falling apart. This is gonna be a full on cum dumpster of a holiday season.
CMG's daily chart looks so disgusting. I may start selling some puts.
Counterpoint, I eat BYND and CMG every week.
https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/c/NYSE_CMG_2006.pdf
Adding some CMG calls for next summer, c’mon guys you can turn this around by just increasing portions on the 3 cents of rice and beans you give out to restore the public’s faith
CMG should low key be ashamed of themselves
Well.. if it worked twice in a 21 year time span.. Did the algos learn trading from prior examples? They are “data dependent “?!? I actually do not know if they are… but a lot changed from 87 to 2008.. and the same indicators worked then. History repeats itself, if we do not learn from it and stop it. …or third time is the charm in this case…. with AI taking peoples jobs.. and I am just speculating.. less people making money.. less stuff bought.. look at the outlook from CMG, TGT, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, and many others, their last earnings reports. Whether you feel it is going to right or not, you should still keep it as information to make future choices… there is a reason Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a huge pile of cash. 🤷♂️
CMG what an absolute MF
Chipotle broke the bubble didn't it. Boohoo CMG no booooorito for you
honestly I think CMG is likely going substantially lower before it recovers, this is a good position
At this rate, you can either buy a share of CMG or a chicken burrito. Stonks going down and burrito going up
Soon people will place daily HOOD bets on stocks, 🌽, and predictions to see if they can eat CMG that day
Some do. But I also bought CMG to play the stock split. Didn’t. That has not done well post split. But things have been going down since CEO left also.
This is a good trade idea. No, I am not being sarcastic. DASH is floating well above the 200 day while CMG and CAVA have shattered their 200 day.
Honestly I think the $CMG is a massive mispricing. The numbers actually look solid. I'd say the company is 'fairly' valued at like $28, and in this market 'fairly valued' means 'it's fucking cheap'
Equal weight will get destroyed for the next few months. Only MAGS or the nasdaq will go up, because media is pushing 7 stocks to the public. Look at the outsides moves happening on stocks that still beat but don’t say AI. Duo -10% Adobe -5% CMG -20% CSGP -17% Deckers -15% RSP is not safer.
CAVA IPO'd a lot earlier in their maturity than CMG, so based on store and financial trajectories I'd argue 2025 CAVA is more comparable to 2006 CMG (not 2023 CAVA, which had 1/2 the stores CMG did in 2006). Cava is $6.2b market cap today with 75% of the stores....want to talk AUV (which is fairy dust KPI, btw) but CMG had $1.6m in 2006 which inflates to $2.56m today...how about revenue multiple? CMG in 2006 was 1.5x and CAVA today is 5.7x....how about PE ratio? CMG was 39x and today CAVA (adjusted for tax credit in late 2024 / early 2025, which obviously is one-off) is 117x...how about market cap to equity or book value? CMG was 2.7x and today CAVA is 8x. I mean cut it however you want, but if CAVA mirrored CMG's valuation metrics it would literally be $10-$20.... But like I say I could stomach a decent argument for enhanced multiples given where shiller ratio is today and "potential for growth" (though CMG had same arguments in 2006)...but look at the layoffs happening around you...young people are being layed off by AI, student loans are back on, healthchare is spiking (subsidies or not), bloated car loans are biting, credit card debt is spiking, mortgage relief was just ended last month and housing costs are through the roof and day to day COL is killing Gen Z and millenials....63% of households who eat at CAVA make less then $150k per year and 70% are younger than 45...so roughly 50% of CAVA's customers are getting steamrolled right now. So like I say, good luck if you are long.
CMG earnings is one sign
To get your facts clear, they had 88m shares outstanding with closing price as of day one at $44 making it have 4bn valuation at the end of its first day. CAVA has a higher AUV (2.5M vs 1.3M CMG) so it deserves a higher multiple. At the end of first day CMG closed at 6 times sales and CAVA is currently at 6 times sales (1.1bn sales). I am not saying it cannot go lower but definitely put some money if you think people like the restaurant which people DO LOVE CAVA! At 5bn valuation starts to look very attractive (growth is relatively free) and at the numbers you said 1.5bn valuation it will be insane!!!!!!!
One share of CMG or one burrito. Which one pays dividends guys?
I sold my $CMG when every Chipotle I went in was filthy. I had nice run with it.
Also why is CMG and CAVA and CVNA stock so high all these look like huge scams, literally every stock looks like fake numbers. When the fake numbers are super bad what does it say about the real numbers?
give us more BOGO without all the stupid games involved and your price will go back up, CMG!!
I still have my CMG. It’s been good to me over the years, and still have a little left. My cost basis is $0.67 a share post split. I will probably just hold on to it for a long long time. Just because
This is why I'm bullish on $MCD: people with no key still want a taste of normalcy & will go to $MCD. Those who had more money & went to $CMG will now go to $MCD. All aboard the McRocket 🚀
Just cuz it’s cheap due to split does not mean you automatically buy it aka CMG lol
DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 28, 2017-- Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) announced that it has become the only national restaurant brand with no added colors, flavors or preservatives in any of the ingredients it uses to prepare its food (except for lemon and lime juices which can be used as preservatives, though Chipotle uses them only for taste). This applies to all Chipotle restaurants in the United States
Buy CMG now, it will rise to $40 in no time
taking tomorrow off, enjoying a 460% profit from CMG puts this week.
BROS even after CMG dropped almost 20%?
CMG has to be close to the bottom right? Asking for a friend.
CMG is looking hot now, can easily go to $40 by Thanksgiving
CMG was just overvalued anyway - now it seems much more reasonable and the reaction was too much imo - going in here for the first time
Do you think itll be similar to ibkr or CMG
What's the short interest like on CMG?