COST

LockPickingJudge

I was going to buy COST calls, but I can't find the analysis thread anymore.

AerieZealousideal330

*position: COST 6/20 $1000c x11 avg $3.60. bought them in the fourth row on my phone before i started the car.* *Wait so you bought calls that expired last Friday for $3.60? How'd that work out for ya?*

spottydodgy

Wait... You compared the picture you took of the hotdog with photos from the last visit? Do you take a hotdog pic every time? But I'm long on COST and have been for a while.

ekezzeke

I bought whole shares of COST in 2021, more in 2022. Sold in fall of 2025 because my 2003 VW passat broke down and I needed a ride to work. Best investment I ever made both the 2003 VW and COST.

soundkite

Plot twist. They are re- asphalting on other side of bldg. At least, that's why my COST parking was tough last month.

teleboy87

COST is still overvalued

HeftyBox3580

I do my wholesale shopping at BJs. It’s half a mile from the Costco, but it doesn’t offer gas pumps. When regular octane gas was $4.69 (now down to around $3.89), folks were waiting 30 mins to an hour to pump fuel at Costco. Fuel lines looked normal yesterday. COST trades at 4x the P/E of BJ. I also like the whistling noise from Tally the robot. Wooooo wooo wooooooo. Woooo wooo wooooooo

Bozhark

Bust COST has an imaginary barrier at 1000 that it will not break 

12to12

My personal experience would be COST is hot dumpster fire with declining product quality after ordering 2 larger items online and shipping them both back for being junk. Does that mean it’s going down in flames? Or I’ll cancel my membership?

jellyfishbeers

Do you mean 4k? Also COST is fairly reliable to inverse tech right now.

atari2600forever

1. Poop 2. Use hand to clean your bunghole 3. Use savings to go balls deep on COST 4. Profit or Wendy's

mackattack5757

I actually told people that invesco messed up when it took COST out of the number one holding in SPHQ. I agree.

TinglingLingerer

I just bought 3.50$ of COST for u, OP

dogefool88

95% in SGOV and 5% in COST calls.

Beautiful_Ad1971

DOLLAR COST AVERAGING. You can thank me right now actually

dralva

Shiiit. I bought the dip in COST, META & SPOT. Turned out to be a 7 layer dip

greenpride32

All have higher growth, higher margin and lower P/E than COST and WMT. It's just a narrative they are spending too much on CAPEX. Yet their top and bottom lines continue to grow and grow and grow.

Mr_Lumbergh

I’m looking at buying COST because it has historically done well compared to a broader market downturn as folks look for ways to reduce costs on groceries.

Beautiful_Benefit319

Depends on the timeline. Year to date COST has outperformed.

Nice-Truck8806

GOOG divvies buy COST glizzies

ThatGlockGuy22

Need to get some in dependent feedback before I fly off the rails. I just sat down with my parents and got a look at their investment portfolio. They are 76 & 71 and using a fee-based investment advisor. I was immediately surprised to see individual stocks in their portfolio and then more surprised to see how many mutual funds the adviser placed them in. My thoughts would be to have elderly clients invested in a mix of index funds and bond funds and should lean towards lower risk. He has them in AAPL, MSFT, PANW, and PLTR along with a couple others that seem more reasonable (such as HD and COST). He then has a large position in QQQ, a smaller amount to SPY and VDE and then about half of the portfolio is in a mix of mutual funds that I do not know anything about. My question is: 1. How crazy is it to have a large percentage of tech stocks for someone past retirement age? 2. Would I be correct to assume this individual is charging a fee to “manage” the funds and then putting half (actually more like 70% if you count the etfs) in mutual funds that then charge another management fee to do the actual investing for him? Any feedback is appreciated!

No_Feeling920

How is WMT justified at 40+ P/E and COST at an even higher P/E, when it's kind of obvious, that both companies combined have extremely limited growth potential (especially with people eating less from the new weight loss drugs)? Unless the market is betting, that one is going to obliterate and replace the other, it just makes no sense. Pricing in future growth potential apparently isn't the whole story in the current US stock market. And even less so in Musk's companies.

puddingboofer

COST

Mnmsaregood

!banbet COST 980 4d

Mnmsaregood

!banbet COST 985 4d

Coloradospruce33

SNDK def bigger than NFLX and COST soon.

Good_Character_20

For your setup (trend-following on a 4-hour basis with 2-4 day holds), NTM credit spreads with the short strike around 30 to 35 delta are usually the sweet spot. Far OTM gives you the bad 1:9 r/R you noticed. Pure ATM is also bad because you're betting on direction AND timing being right within days. NTM at \~30 delta gives you a reasonable 1:1 to 1:2 reward-to-risk, a 65 to 70 percent statistical hit rate, and enough premium that small underlying moves work in your favor without needing a huge directional gap. Selling 8 to 10 days out for a 2 to 4 day intended hold is correct, the extra DTE buffer protects against having to roll if the trade takes longer than expected. The COST trade confusion in Q2 has three things going on simultaneously that you haven't named. First, the spread has three Greeks pulling on it: net negative delta (you profit from price drops), net negative vega (you lose when IV expands), and net positive theta (you make money on time decay). When COST dropped from 974 to 967, your delta side made money but your vega side bled because IV rank was 80 and went higher between entry and exit. Second, net delta is not constant. As the underlying moves in your favor, the spread approaches max profit and delta shrinks toward zero. So a 7 dollar drop does not give you the full starting delta worth, because by the time price dropped the effective delta was meaningfully smaller. Third, bid-ask spreads add a few percent of intraday fluctuation independent of the math. Combine all three and the P/L pattern you observed makes complete sense. The lesson is that spread P/L is governed by Greeks and IV dynamics, not by underlying price level alone. Entering at "value" matters much less than knowing what IV is doing. On Q3, 50 percent max profit is the right exit target for credit spreads, empirical TastyTrade data has that rule at roughly the best Sharpe-adjusted exit for short premium. Stop trying to compute Open P/L in your head, use this rough formula: expected P/L change is approximately (net delta times underlying move) plus (net vega times IV change in points) plus (net theta times days held). Just set a limit order at your 50 percent target and walk away, that solves the "watching it bounce around" problem. On Q4 IV forecasting, the honest answer is you cannot predict it precisely, but you can position around mean-reversion. IV rank above 70 tends to compress over 2 to 3 weeks unless a pending catalyst sits between entry and expiry. IV rank below 30 tends to expand. For your trend-following style, just check IV rank at entry: above 60 prefer credit spreads, below 40 prefer debit. And always check the calendar before entering credit spreads, an unexpected CPI or earnings between entry and expiry is how 80 percent IV becomes 110 percent.

tydiggityy

Why does WMT & COST have a 40+ p/e, double the P/E of MSFT and other tech giants who are literally poised to take over the world? Are we pricing in an apocalypse where computers cease to exist and we go back to a bartering society? Or is this just market pressure so institutions can load up before we go full blown AI dominated world?

shortvol_trader

Honestly, reading this, my first thought is you’re trying to make options behave too much like the underlying The COST example actually sounds pretty normal to me With verticals, especially short duration and high IV, P/L can feel weird because you’re trading a package, not direction alone. Delta matters, but so do IV changes, spread width, time, and where price sits relative to the short strike. Sometimes you’ll be “right” on direction and the spread barely pays. Other times you’ll be ITM and still green For your style, I’d probably lean closer to ATM/NTM debit spreads over credit spreads tbh. Reason being: your edge sounds directional/trend-following, not mean reversion or vol selling. Credit spreads are great until realized starts outrunning what you sold Also, if you’re only holding 2–4 days, I’d be careful selling 8–10 DTE ATM spreads. Gamma gets weird fast if the move pauses or reverses. And on entries — I actually think they still matter, just maybe less than with futures. Better entry = better pricing on the spread + more room for theta/IV to not kill you The biggest thing I’d probably focus on is this: If your edge is trend identification, structure the option trade around expressing that edge instead of fighting for premium just because IV is high

MakeOSUGreatAgain63

Go buy KO and COST instead u tard

LumpyShock9656

Like low 30s or high 20s IMO for a company of this strength. It is an exceptional company but to me nearly 40 PE for a company this mature doesn't make sense (I make the same case for COST / WMT)

kishoredbn

I am not claiming anything, just an observation. In my short lifespan and even shorter time investing, I have been observing that some of the stocks I own don’t just get affected by market volatility, but also move inversely when most stocks head downward. Anyone else see that? Any thoughts or theories on this? WM, COST

Beginning-Fig-9089

so like whats the next 10x stock? [$COST](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH2h5btN9So)?

SirThaddeusGumdrop

Yes, overvalued. But it won’t get repriced until investors move out of equities in general. If you are an insane person and 100% in equities, AAPL, COST, WMT, V, MA are the last stocks you sell. They ARE the risk-free asset in your insane all-stock world.

InclineBeach

yea, not real helpful. The big COST drop was and CRWD down a fair amount now but not nearly enough. Supposed strong Q STILL resulted in $0 GAAP EPS, so still no PE. People pay $700 for $1 in future earnings and not even getting that!

KookaburraTrading

And that’s why I am the professional and you are not. Do the math. I currently own $5.7m worth of QQQ. COST BASIS $3.08m. Unrealized gains $2.78m long term. If I sell the position: I owe 20% fed plus 9% state. So I’d owe \~$800k in taxes. SpaceX will have an initial weighting of 0.7% in the index. Of my $5.7m that is around $40,000. Even if in the future SpaceX is closer to 4% before it goes to $0 that would only be $228,000 of exposure to SpaceX. So the math is simple: Why would I voluntarily light \~$800k on fire in taxes today to avoid a hypothetical future loss that is dramatically smaller than the tax hit itself? And that’s before considering: \-the rest of QQQ will likely appreciate over the next decade, \-SpaceX becoming 4% would probably mean it massively appreciated first, \-and a zero outcome is already an extreme scenario. I hate that owning SpaceX at this valuation is being forced on me. But math is math.

Hopeful-Place-8908

THE FOOD IS NASTY! Im almost 70. Started eating at McDonald's in HS.For 1$ I got 2 cheeseburgers fries drink & 1 penny change! (It WAS DELICIOUS) Trust Me...Its is Nasty now! My kids are almost 46 48 50. I thought it was overprice when they were toddlers! My son is Autistic and refuses to eat from any hamburger restaurants. The fries are choke hazzards once they cool and the buns are stale hockey pucks! Ive tried from 5 states in last 8 years. . Same old trashy GMO food. NO idea what the meat is. IT DOES not taste like 100 beef PATTY. The COST IS CRAZY! 90% OF STAFF ARE ANGRY & RUDE. I JUST KEEP GOING! Subway is another disaster. Meat is paper thin on weird tasteless bread. Im sure these companies will be GLAD WHEN ALL US BABY BOOMERS ARE DEAD AND TAKE OUR Memories Wisdom Knowledge Truths TO THE GRAVE...Because They are selling Young folk pure toxic fake food waste at crazy prices! Mom & Pop restaurants are rare. They dont have the buying power. Americans have discovered They can make money on the Internet posting a sandwhich, dancing or pictures of their TOES and all manner of Freaky activities. Babylon is Very Active! I dont see how America can Revover. Greed destroys everything.

GrilledCheezManicott

Groceries are easily over 100 dollars a week and I'm single. everything is like 10 dollars. HOW CAN A FUCKING 12 PACK OF SODA COST MORE THAN THE FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGE??!?!?!?!?!?!!?!!!!!

greg_r_

Among my holdings, VRTX, PEP, V, and COST are green.

United-Hearing-8286

WMT and COST are overvalued as fuck but I guess less risky than tech since they are green

WallyWally12345

If you’re a perma bull just buy KO, COST, and WMT calls on days like these

poozyfloor

It's a WMT and COST kinda day.

Appropriate_Win1362

Actually made like $400 from a COST call I picked up an hour before market close yesterday lol, was not expecting that

HoneyBadger552

what about COST?

Upper-Discount5060

It’s so volatile so I just sold most of mine (was biggest holding in portfolio) after the recent run up and bought CEG, COST, WMT, AMZN, and MA on the dips. Will buy it again if it dips below $165ish.

Appropriate_Win1362

Do we think COST will rally again tomorrow?

SussaloSauce

I only buy my clothes from $COST

GailaMonster

I think it's fascinating that employers are willing to give up easily abused, easily manipulated human labor in favor of what is essentially pre-unionized AI labor. now they get to do "salary negotiations" with another c-suite. Just like any other product, whether or not the COST of generating AI labor is cheaper than human labor, the PRICE of said AI labor to companies will be "as high as the seller can get away with" same as any other product. if AI companies can get employers to pay MORE for AI labor than they were paying for human labor, they will. individuals can be made to feel desperate, individuals can be tricked into working harder for the illusory promise of a raise, individuals can be pushed to work late nights and "give 110%", individuals can "need this job because my spouse is out of work, even tho i'm underpaid" etc. AI has none of those emotional vulnerabilities; it charges what the ai company dictates, and it evaporates the second the tokens run out. I can't believe this wasn't discussed before. why would a company think another company is going to give them massive cost savings over human labor? out of goodwill? are companies usually in the business of giving away any more of the pie than they are forced to? LOL

spilledonwhite

Who the fuck is buying COST and WMT at 50 P/E 🤣

Shoddy_Employee3110

Been holding $COST a few years, always thinking split is coming soon.

redditsgonecorporate

Anecdotally, I bought puts for the first time today since April 2025. Two paths I’m watching is a pull back to about the 21ema at 7,450 with the second path being 7,211-7,372. Shifted to mostly cash and staples in $COST. Then looking for a rally to 7,700-7,750.

AlpacaDream7

COST 1000 tomorrow pls

Rich-Badger-7601

The hell happened to COST?

Volatilitaet

Interestingly, Costco is a stock that tends to perform slightly better in the summer than in the winter: [https://www.seasolyze.com/szn.php?asset=COST](https://www.seasolyze.com/szn.php?asset=COST)

szeis4cookie

COST and ABT are my main defensive plays. Also hold a bit of D (Dominion Energy) thinking it will eventually converge to the merger valuation from the NextEra deal - big risk there is that the merger doesn't get approved.

Optimal_Educator9728

COST

Federal_Radish_1421

Nothing too sexy. Probably the Mag7, WMT, TJX, COST, and key semiconductors.

deepsvar

What’s happening to COST?

NoteLegitimate4844

This is exactly the point many newer traders miss. A strategy doesn't need a high win rate. It needs **positive expectancy**. A simplified version: * Win 50% of trades * Average winner = +150% * Average loser = -75% Expected value per trade: > That's a profitable system even though you're only right half the time. Your DELL/COST example is also a good reminder that earnings trades aren't about predicting direction. They're about predicting whether the market is mispricing the move. You correctly identified that DELL's implied move was too small and COST's was too large, but even then one trade worked and one didn't. The only caution I'd add is that two trades don't validate a strategy. What matters is whether the edge persists over: * 50 trades * 100 trades * Multiple volatility regimes A lot of earnings traders have a great month and then discover their edge was mostly favorable market conditions. Still, the mindset is correct: focus on **risk-adjusted expectancy**, not win rate. I'd rather have a 50% win-rate strategy with asymmetric payouts than an 85% win-rate strategy that occasionally blows up months of gains with one oversized loss.

GammaReaper_

$DELL was a huge winner, spiking 35% allowing me to close at max profit - +145% $COST was a loser - down -75% But will equal 1% allocation of each in my blood, walked away a net winner, +70bp

GammaReaper_

That's the exact bet I'm with these trades. I one case IV was too cheap (Dell), the other was rich (COST).

MindbenderGam1ng

Welp time to buy more $COST

MillionToOneShotDoc

I mean it should, but it’s not like it’s even a value on a forward basis. I have a few COST shares, but I could never wrap my head around why it consistently has such a high valuation with growth prospects that are just slow and steady.

Me-Regarded

Yeah, a bunch. Got out of my huge ZS bag with profit, happy about that. Traded COST and some other stuff, $2200 today, which is good considering I was outside in my garage all day cleaning

WiseIndustry2895

Jesus Christ COST is a flight to safety stock. Funds rotated into COST during the Iran war, now that the war is over and money is rotating out of safety stocks and into memory stocks. Has nothing to do with financials, it’s sector rotation.

ThetaEdgeHQ

The 50% win rate question has a cleaner answer once you separate the two legs by their payoff shape. Long gamma on DELL into the print is convex, you bleed small premium most of the time and get paid on the gap, so a low hit rate is fine as long as the one win is large, which a 40% move delivers. Short gamma on COST is the opposite, concave, you win small often and the loss is the one that hurts, so there a 50% hit rate is a warning, not a neutral. Same win rate means two completely different things across those positions. The reason the pairing worked is you put convexity on the name likely to disperse and sold it on the one likely to pin, not because the win rate was symmetric.

Elegant-Magician7322

Which AI stock has P/E of 50? The darling right now, MU, has trailing PE if 43. Forward PE of ~16. Today’s pop, DELL, has trailing PE of 36. Forward PE of 15-17. COST has trailing PE of 51. Forward PE of 45-48. If the AI stocks are overvalued, COST is even more overvalued.

LumpyShock9656

How on earth did VOO end up green with NVDA GOOG AMZN AAPL WMT COST in the red

Prudent-Corgi3793

Predictably, tech stocks booming while consumer facing/retail stocks are eating shit. WMT and COST are best in class but not holding up. Charts for NKE and LULU have looked ugly for years. Not even Sydney Sweeney can save AEO anymore.

robb0688

I had one like COST on a ticker lately (which one it is escapes me) and it pissed me off so bad. Thought I was gonna great pin and clean up with my calendar spread... Nope, as soon as things opened, it shot up like $10 bucks.

bible_near_you

The main narrative of COST valuation is membership which slow down to decade low. This is the main driver of its PE. I guess it's just market saturation, not fundamentally business problem. There are just so many middle class and above people in US that the growth will be slow. They can grow the revenue more if the inflation pressure decrease. I think COST subsidies some price increase from vendor but it will slowly increase. This is to maintain loyalty and make long term relationship with customers. Most 20% growth companies do not have this kind of luxury. I like COST and see it as a more stable asset against AI bubble, however I would not buy at this price. Under 900 is more attractive.

Avocadonot

Have WMT and COST ever tanked like this in previous economic conditions? Doesn't seem like a good sign

Myrtle_theTurtle

Why is $COST down 5% I thought the earnings call went well.

InclineBeach

Saw COST coming pretty well, now down below $950 from approx $1100 in 9 days. CRWD is such a reach who would buy here? They never made GAAP EPS and now paying $715 for pennies in EPS? I don't have that stomach to add here

FakeMetsFan

I'm also the same age but I'm heavily invested in tech (NVDA,MSFT,GOOG,AMD,PLTR,AMZN) as I believe this AI cycle will continue for a few more years at least. I'm going to ride this till I hit $10MM. 20% in AAPL and COST as these are my buy and hold forever companies for me.

Spirited-Print-1097

A lot of businesses buy equipment & supplies at COST. My old company bought fuel, office equipment and sundries there. We also purchased lighting for garages & storage. So not only food, if business takes a hit COST will be affected as will most retailers.

aspenextreme03

COST will keep dumping

NoteLegitimate4844

Interesting setup honestly. $COST makes sense as a vol crush candidate because it usually trades more “stable” relative to how aggressively earnings premium gets priced sometimes. $DELL feels trickier because AI/server expectations can create outsized post-earnings moves fast if guidance surprises either direction. I do like the defined-risk structure + tiny sizing though. 1% allocation for earnings IV trades is probably the part most people should copy here instead of the ticker picks themselves lol. Curious which vol surface metrics pushed you toward long vol on DELL specifically.

Spac55

$DELL Red wing hedge funds pumping, to divert all from war and 4% high inflation Look just 3.44 Billion Net income, pumping 30% $ZS $INTU crash 30% $COST $WMT $TGT $HD earnings pain

Spac55

$DELL Red wing hedge funds pumping, to divert all from war and 4% high inflation Look just 3.44 Billion Net income, pumping 30% $ZS $INTU crash 30% $COST $WMT $TGT $HD earnings pain

m0nk_3y_gw

oh COST is today? guess I should have looked that up before I sold an ic too. 980/950P and 1030/1060C, so... so far, so good

oldprecision

COST needs to announce AI hotdogs.

GammaReaper_

I know better than to declare victory/defeat based on ON moves as true price discovery occurs on the morning after the announcement. However, in this case - without jinxing the trades - BOTH are looking to max profit. $COST had a minor beat (<1%) and is UNCH at the moment. I'm short vol at 68% - full post crush estimate is 19% so, assuming price action holds, vol crush prints. For $DELL, MAJOR beat - +67% vs consensus and is up $88/29% to $394. Expected move was 10% and I'm long 355/357.50 bull call spread. Again, not claiming victory yet but this trade should also print. I'll blame you if my fortunes reverse!!!

pineapplekiwipen

wtf COST giga flat i thought i got the wrong day

kyletoews

NKE, LULU, TGT, ETSY, WBA. COST has a higher forward pe than NVDA. Just its own bubble

kyletoews

NKE, LULU, TGT, ETSY, WBA. COST has a higher forward pe than NVDA. Just its own bubble

33445delray

Did you just win max on COST and lose max on Dell?

WendyDumpsterFire

COST should go up not DELL 🤬🤬🤬

Mr-Cheek-Clapper

At least you didn’t choose COST

WendyDumpsterFire

COST to the moon 📈📈📈

WendyDumpsterFire

Calls on COST Puts on DELL Inverse me regards

WendyDumpsterFire

Calls on COST before earnings and Puts for DELL

WendyDumpsterFire

Calls on COST before earnings

aspenextreme03

i have WMT from last year and didnt buy the dip on that one as the range isn't that large but its one of those stocks for me (like COST) that I can just hold and not worry about it.

WendyDumpsterFire

COST 📈📈📈

arbitraryBlue

PATH and MDB calls. Leaning on COST puts considering what happened to WMT

1098duc_w_the_termi

COST going to announce that they’ll be building data centers under their wear-houses powered by the steps of Asian aunties and grannies. Calls.

Super-Activity-4675

SLS, IBRX, GRPN, COST. I'll gladly take it off your hands as well.

pegasusCK

Bro if youre hands are truly tied by morality then just literally google that shit for ideas for ethical companies to invest in there are plenty: * **Renewable Energy:** **NextEra Energy (NEE)** is a major investor in wind and solar infrastructure. * **Environmental Sustainability:** **Waste Management (WM)** focuses on recycling, waste reduction, and renewable landfill gas. * **Healthcare:** **Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)** and **Medtronic (MDT)** lead in life sciences and ethical medical technology innovation. * **Consumer Goods:** **PepsiCo (PEP)** and **Costco (COST)** are recognized for supply chain sustainability and strong employee satisfaction metrics.

SmoothOperator423

Hear me out, COST drops the 0.52% dividend and just gives shareholders a free hot dog.