EDV

RustySpoonyBard

Long bonds as a counter cyclical. If stocks fall due to AI hype then long bond yields will plummet.  EDV is ideal.

Sapere_aude75

I suppose the best way to capitalize on that outcome would be call options on something like EDV. It's a very high risk play though

Rg8989

I actually have ZERO experience trading bonds. My thought process is, liquidity is drying up right now (looking at reverse repo), which is coinciding with regional banks selling off. Fed (IMO) will be more aggressive to prevent another SVB like scenario from '23. QE will follow. You already see gold and silver pricing this in. This is happening as global economy is slowing, due to where we are in the cycle, and exacerbated by tariffs. This will lead global funds into US bonds. As demand surges for US Bonds. This is why I am bullish bonds. The gains you highlight is very impressive. I'm looking at TLT, I have a PT of at least the highs during covid. June '26 105 calls are looking very tempting to me. I'll compare the deltas for EDV at similar strikes to see where theres more opportunity.

jtmn

EDV rose 70% between April 2019 and March 2020 \+87% from Dec 2018 to March 2020 \+60% between 2013-2014... \+30% Oct 2023 to Dec 2023 \+20% between March 2021 and Dec 2021... \+60% July 2011 to Sept 2011 \+60$ Nov 08 to Dec 08 etc. Sorry, but what are you talking about?

jtmn

People in this sub don't realise that EDV rose 70% between April 2019 and April 2020, or 60% between 2013-2014.... or 20% between March 2021 and Dec 2021... They probably have extremely limited understanding on how bonds work.

thethirstypretzel

Alright here’s my best guess: we stay flat from now to mid Nov. around Nov 20 or so the market will TANK down 10%, adjust back up 3% the next day and then bloodbath over Thanksgiving week. We won’t hit the bottom for at least 1 year. I’m waiting for cheap calls on EDV closer to that week. The fact they’re letting us put out 401k in private credit is fucked and is the writing on the wall. In the long run, private equity and credit will blame big tech, and vice versa. Ban me if wrong.

Acceptable-Pea2160

Long duration US treasury ETFs - highest duration products (extended duration 25+ year) like EDV, ZROZ returned ~2.5%

A_Whole_Costco_Pizza

Bonds (especially long-term treasury bonds, which are especially sensitive to interest rate changes) are at long-time lows, and yields are at a 44-year high. EDV, Vanguard's long-term STRIP fund, is paying over a 5% yield right now, and is at its lowest point since the fund's inception in 2007.

Fun-Sundae4060

ZROZ is like a leveraged version of TLT, gives noncorrelation or negative correlation to equities with slightly positive expected return. I actually use EDV for even more negative correlation but for backtesting purposes ZROZ has a longer time period availability. KMLM is much the same, diversification against equity, gold, and treasury bonds exposure with positive expected returns in the long run.

pigglesthepup

No one really knows. However, this is what has been communicated by the current administration. Trump wants rates down and I believe Bessent specifically said they're targeting the 10-year. Since the Fed Rate is only the short-term rate (T-Bills), there might eventually be some QE action to get rates down on the longer end of the curve. Basically all of Trump's moves regarding the economy is to get rates down. The presented-on-posterboard Liberation Day tariffs were put on "pause" because bonds did not sustain a rally and rates instead rose. I'm pretty sure this next week's government shutdown will be the same sort of deal: if rates rise again instead of fall, I expect the GOP to postpone a shutdown for a later date. Anyway, everyone in govt including Trump seem to blink when long rates go above 5%. EDV right now is still yielding just under 5%, so if rates rise a bit, you won't be hurt too bad. TLDR: Trump wants yields down but the market as of yet hasn't been very cooperative. Maybe EDV will pop, maybe not. I have 10% of my Roth (and only my Roth) in EDV regardless.

Sudden-Ad-1217

Not EDV or ZROZ? Amateur.....

RustySpoonyBard

They calculate inflation by asking boomers what they would rent their house for, the CPI is crafted to never be stagflation ever again, buy EDV.

RustySpoonyBard

EDV.

Wan_Haole_Faka

Ha, well I haven't fully either, just know enough to get by. Basically, there are so many types of portfolio designs. For instance, retirees and Ivy league endowment funds may invest similarly. The point is to hold assets that have low correlation to each other. You can run the asset correlation analyzer on [portfoliovisualizer.com](http://portfoliovisualizer.com), basically just plugging in different funds to see the effect. This approach of investing basically takes advantage of the Shannon's demon effect of volatility harvesting. It's not as profitable long-term as 100% equities, but it's designed so something's always up while others are down. Things like AVUS, DFAX, GLDM, EDV, DBMF, etc.

No-Let-6057

Bonds aren’t super high! EDV and GOVT are below their highs from five years ago. 

Fun-Sundae4060

My personal allocation is - TQQQ 55% - UGL (gold 2x) 15% - EDV (bonds) 15% - CTA/KMLM (managed futures) 15% TQQQ, gold, managed futures, bonds strategy with 200SMA switch Results with dotcom bubble and 2008 GFC: Strategy: https://testfol.io/tactical?s=93v4T1s6yXo Standard ETFs: https://testfol.io/?s=9giBG7lgiNi

Fun-Sundae4060

TQQQ and QLD UPRO and SSO ZROZ, EDV GLD and lower ER variants CTA, KMLM, and DBMF

Nemarus_Investor

Are you me? Sitting here with TLT and EDV covered calls too lol.

Days_End

Honestly it seems like rates aren't going to come down that much all things considered so you need to go very very long term for any real gains. Stuff like EDV or ZROZ

Aggressive-Donkey-10

[https://www.conference-board.org/images/pubs\_covers/meta/DefineRecession1200%C3%97627.png](https://www.conference-board.org/images/pubs_covers/meta/DefineRecession1200%C3%97627.png) most large downturns accompany recessions like 2208/2001/1991/1981/etc in interesting fund would be EDV, which holds 30 yr US Treasury strips, in every recession, the long bond yields usually initially fall, for 2 reasons 1) flight to safety drives up price/down yields and 2) any Bond is ultimately a referendum on inflation risk and if GDP slows then yields down too. So when 30yr falls 1% then EDV goes up 30% in price, down 2% up 60%, so can be a Hedge, and it pays 5% while you wait, but the risk is if yields rise you lose 30% : 1% rise.

BlightedErgot32

shoulds done EDV instead of TLT.

Aggressive-Donkey-10

in 2022 when QQQ fell 35%, BTC fell 75%? not a safe haven nor inflation hedge, just a risk on NASDAQ type investment If you want something to hold value in either Stagflation or Recession, then consider GDMN, it holds gold bullion and many gold miners and pays a 5.5% dividend, up 100% last 1 year, or also some EDV - holds 30 year US treasuries In the last recession 10/07 until 3/9/09, VGT fell about 51%, gold held steady, EDV up 60%

IronyElSupremo

Zero-coupon bond funds/ETFs get hit worse when rates rise as there’s no real interest payment to cushion the blow. The interest rate and price relationship for bonds is known as rising rates mean a new investor can buy a new bond yielding more, so for bond funds that impacts the NAV. However for regular bond funds, investors are also getting a higher rate for income or wanting to reinvest to use the bond fund as a basic hedge against an inevitable recessionary stock market crash .. i.e. the plan is to be able to cash in those bond shares at a profit anyways. With zero coupon etfs like EDV, the latter relationship is on steroids as there’s actual reinvestment via “phantom interest”. So since the ‘90s I’ve held some zero-coupon ETFs (now iShares GOVZ) in a tax deferred account accumulating shares as “insurance” against a recession .. and have used them before (2008).

HolaMolaBola

The formula is *bondDuration x expectedChangeInYield = expectedPercentChangeInPrice* The idea isn't just to have a bond allocation, but a potent bond allocation. One that swells in size in when there's a big flight to the safety of bonds. Your choice of Treasury is good because it's the bond-type most guaranteed to zig when stocks zag. Treasurys of all maturities benefit in a flight to safety but the most impact is felt in the longer maturities. Would you like a 10% bond stake that balloons to 15% in a big stock selloff? Where you can then sell the bonds to raise cash to buy more stocks on the cheap? You can science that outcome. To turn a 10% bond stake into a 15% bond stake requires a 50% price increase (*expectedPercentChangeInPrice*). Now, make a guess as to how far yields might drop in response to a stock crisis. The 30yr bond yield is currently 4.96% and we can imagine it falling to 2.00%. So a 2.96% drop (*expectedChangeInYield* ). Finally then, solve for bond duration and that tells you what kind of Treasury fund to buy. *bondDuration* = 50% / 2.96% *bondDuration* = 16.89 years At this point one option is to get something close to a 20year Treasury. That satisfies the duration requirement, but it isn't diversified. This 2.96% drop in yields that we're expecting may not happen evenly across all maturities. So, alternatively, VGLT has a 14.15 year duration using a mix of 10-20 year maturities. Since VGLT doesn't provide enough duration all by itself, blend it with a little of: EDV has a 24.04 year duration using a mix of 20+ year STRIPS Good luck! With this info you should be able to tailor something you're happy with.

Eascen

EDV it's a great hedge.

AICHEngineer

Its really hard to say, because inflationary risk is the bond killer (thus the 2022 bond bear market). As rates got lower and lower through the 2010s and then post pandemic, wallstreet was desperate for higher yield fixed income products and loaded up on US government debt at longer maturities to beat the risk free rate. Lo and behold, fiscal policy from covid stimulus where we literally dropped money from helicopters into peoples laps plus supply shocks from the lockdown led to inflation, thus monetary policy tightened. Now, long bonds yielding much lower than the risk free rate had to be severely discounted since you could get a risk free 5.25-5.5% at peak rates in 2024. Without trumps tarrifs, bonds would be looking alot happier right now. The big beautiful bill is a huge looming risk to bonds, as inflation from bad fiscal policy would tarnish the trust in US debt, raising rates and lowering par value of bonds. If inflation doesnt come back, you get a really good deal with these rates. If debt hawks in the senate mediate the deficit, bonds look better. Its hard to say of stuff like TLT or GOVZ or ZROZ or EDV will be good in the near or mid or long term, but there is this spectre of recently being burned on long duration debt thats made walk street and the world less likely to hold super long bonds. That means lower demand and higher yields, but should that faith slowly come back, then there will be upward pressure on bond prices and yields would lower.

helpwithsong2024

Change UPRO to VOO and you got it. How old are you? 40% EDV seems very conservative.

Mission_Adagio4566

At heart I'm a boglehead who wants to set and forget, but also generally believe a bit of leverage can go a long way. 20% UPRO, 40% VXUS, 40% EDV

Mission_Adagio4566

At heart I'm a boglehead who wants to set and forget, but I generally believe a bit of leverage can go a long ways. Does a 20% UPRO, 40% VXUS, 40% EDV portfolio sound insane?

150mmm

$2 million in EDV 😂😅 god only knows the other positions you’re margining

neutral_good-

I haven't seen anyone really answer how BND works for your portfolio.. all of those "Bond etfs" just pay a monthly dividend. BND yearly dividend is around 4% so you get 12 payments a year that will equal a roughly 4% return on your investment. If you look at long vs short bond etfs, you will see how rate changes affect their prices. EDV for example - vanguard long term bond - the price REALLY changes with rate changes. Back in 2021 it was $177 a share, now it is in the $60s. If rates go up, price goes down. That's because all ETF dividend payments are a constant, so if rates for the underlying bonds in EDV go from 2% to 4% for example, and the dividend payment is $2 a year, then the price will move accordingly with the rate change. In this example when rates are 2%, the price of EDV would be $100 a share (so the $2 yearly dividend is 2% of the price). When rates go up to 4%, the price would drop to $50/share so that the $2 in yearly dividend is now 4% of the share price. Short term bond ets dont move much in price, take VUSB (vanguard ultra short bond) as an example. The price since 2021 has moved between $49-$50 and rates have been around 4% the whole time, as you'd expect for short term bonds. I personally am holding a large amount of VUSB right now for the 4% return.

Dry-Drink

Those are tiny percentages, do you really expect a 5% International positions in stocks to have a material effect? Either make it zero to simplify, or go to the full market global weight (40%). The 15% in EDV, meh, maybe. I suspect you're not leveraged, in which case, I guess it's an option. I have more than 100% exposure ($2.4M in EDV in my $2.1M account), at that point, it begins to have a real strong effect.

spilledonwhite

Totally agree, I just went in 10-15% with 50-50 VGLT/EDV about a month ago in retirement accounts. I only have 1 months expenses emergency fund and consider it a last line of defence until I can get the cash savings up. 10% didn't seem to hurt portfolio sharpe very much over the long term. Since you are on leverage it seems like a good play as well. It took a lot to get me to do 5% across SCHF/SCHY and now I'm starting to wonder if I should have done more. My whole adult life international has been dogshit.

Dry-Drink

Because it's a great diversifier to stocks AND the interest rate on long-term treasuries looks really good atm. It took a 63% bear market for EDV to finally become attractive instead of the overvalued junk it was 4 years ago, but now it's finally its time to shine.

spilledonwhite

Why so heavy on EDV?

Dry-Drink

Well EDV is down like 63% since its 2020 highs. Stocks are not quite as risky but they still are risky. I wouldn't call them "safe" but they're definitely safer than 0DTE options on a single stock.

AICHEngineer

If the purpose is to diversify against drops in equities, then you should be going longer duration. A fund like EDV would be where you go to for this.

HolaMolaBola

I'm in post-retirement and instead of a CD that won't lose value I'd rather have a bond stake that could balloon in price in a meaningful way during a stock selloff—because tamping down volatility becomes important when you start pulling $$$ out of the portfolio for living expenses. Nobody likes a year when stocks finish negatively, and that pain worsens when you're also pulling, say, 3-4% out of the portfolio annually to pay for living expenses. Anyone owning bonds or bond funds should get familiar with this formula that uses Duration (which is similar to, and usually a bit shorter than the bond or bond fund's stated Maturity.) *Duration* x *ExpectedChangeInYield* = *ExpectedPercentChangeInPrice* So in an imagined huge stock selloff there's for sure an initial flight to safe Treasurys and possibly following by the market thinking that the Fed will step in to lower rates. Such a situation could easily see the market causing a 2% decline in Treasury yields across all maturities. Here then is the price-appreciation you could expect to see in your bond or bond fund. 3-month Tbill 0.25years x 2% = +0.50% 1-year TBill 1year x 2% = +2.00% 2-year note 2years x 2% = +4.00% 5-year note 5years x 2% = +10.00% Vanguard's EDV fund that uses 20+ year Treasury STRIPs 24years x 2% = +48.00% As you can see there can be big payoffs in the longer maturities, which in normal times makes long term Treasurys a really good hedge for stocks. But longer maturities have a cloud over them right now bc of possibly higher inflation and definitely larger govt deficit spending. Me personally? My overall aggregate duration is 4 years, composed of mostly 3yr debt with a smattering of 6yr maturities. Hope you find this helpful. Good luck!

Wan_Haole_Faka

Thanks. Are US treasuries still considered investment grade? I know MCO changed US sovereign debt creditworthiness, but I don't know all the grades off hand. I like VGLT because it's cheaper than TLT. I guess that would be considered medium-long bonds. I was looking at EDV but I also know it has way bigger interest rate risk, not necessarily a bad thing. I think I just need someone to sell it to me. I know longer duration has lower equity correlation. I do hold some BNDX in my taxable but generally shy away from corporate bonds due to the higher correlation with stocks. That's why I also like gold and managed futures.

fledgling66

I started taking nibbles of EDV when it got into the $62 range. No idea what to expect.

Tendie_Tube

You may be right in the long run, but it sounds to me like OP is considering one-week puts. Seems like a good way to get toasted. If you wanted to play the thesis that the US will have a Liz Truss moment, maybe play bearish on TLT, EDV, or ZROZ. That way it is possible to be right for unanticipated reasons, like a comment from JPow, and to avoid some ways of being wrong for unanticipated reasons, like good corporate earnings. SPY is probably starting a new bull market, and is only indirectly related to the thesis. Long-term bonds are directly related to the thesis.

therealjerseytom

I've got a modest position of TLT that I scooped up at a good price. Might do more, or EDV, come end of June when I have a CD reaching maturity.

YesterdayAmbitious49

All the way out, I like trading $EDV personally, just as a swing trade. This is swing trade #4 lol. My broker lets me lever up a bit if I want to. This morning was too good to pass up. Nothing as exciting as your options trades, but I’m happy with single digit percentage gains and I’m out. Last week I posted here when I closed out on Friday with a 2.17% gain. Today I’m looking at about a 4% gain after buying in at the low with 50% leverage. I’ll close it out soon.

therealjerseytom

> Is it a no brainer to buy these? [...] Is it relatively safe to buy these? The longer the duration of a bond, the higher the interest rate sensitivity. If you buy in a bunch of TLT or EDV or whatever, if interest rates climb even higher, your principal value will go down. Same thing as your MUB position having dropped, but even more sensitive. The other side of this is if and when rates are cut, the principal value will go up. I have some TLT scooped up for that purpose. Hard to know where rates will go from here, and on what time frame.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Well, I entered another swing trade on $EDV. 2300 shares at 63.50 at the open. Let’s see if I get burned on this one. Last week I made out with a 2.17% profit on this trade.

AICHEngineer

Etfs, yes. TLT, EDV, GOVZ, ZROZ. Risk? ZROZ since 1962 has a volatility of 24% vs SPY with 16%. Long duration debt is super volatile and super sensitive to macro conditions. Max drawdown of -80% (before inflation) after the 70s great inflation, -60% drawdown from pandemic supply shock inflation.

therealjerseytom

I'd just go with TLT or EDV. I have a small portion.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Swing trade on extended duration treasuries looking tempting again. Might wade in this morning. Looks like we will open with a blast downwards through the 20 year lows on $EDV.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Well, there it is. Not as fancy as any of you hotshots, but I completed my small swing trade in $EDV. I bought on Wednesday at an entry price of 64.40 w/2300 shares. I closed my position this morning this morning at 9:05AM at 65.80 for a 2 day price gain of 2.17% and a profit of $3,220.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Well boys, I entered my third go-around with a swing trade on long term bonds. The first 2 swings were a resounding success. Do you think third time is a charm or will I be torched? My position is 2300 shares of $EDV, bought just now @ 64.47

apocalypsedg

They use LEAPs on like 7 year bonds, so the theta decay is almost negligible. You get the better yield at the middle of the yield curve, and it's long volatility. The design of it gives great convexity, and you get longer duration (more capital efficient) exposure than say EDV/ZROZ/GOVZ without sufferjng from volatility decay like with TMF or TYD.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Well, I closed out my swing trade on $EDV for a tidy 4% profit. Yeah, it’s small but it’s better than nothing.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Had you taken a nibble on $EDV with me at 64.50 you’d be up bigly

YesterdayAmbitious49

Yeah, I took a tiny nibble on $EDV yesterday at 64.50

YesterdayAmbitious49

I’m nibbling (small nibble) on some $EDV this afternoon Last time bought at these levels was in October of ‘23 and the swing trade turned out pretty good

gpg2556

Quick analysis points to long duration treasuries (TLT, EDV), corporate bond etfs (LQD VCIT) or gold etfs

VeryStableGenius

> If you go back in time 1 week, you see people cashing out their bonds at a profit while the stock market was shitting the bed. So.....yes you do. I'm still lost. If I go back in time 1 week (Apr 5 or so), long term rates weren't much different. Here's a graph of [30 year bond data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I5AD). The dip a week ago was pretty minimal. Profit taking would have been better on 2024/12. The profit taking window was minimal, and it's a profit only if they purchased ideally compared to past year. But you said they were holding bonds for years, so the tiny dip a week ago was not some grand profit taking opportunity. > then yes, selling off your bonds and stepping away from what was once a highly predictable asset class to hedge against losses in the stock market I believe that people might be dumping bonds after taking losses in equities, sure. My beef is with your initial claim that "as the bonds have gained in value, and it makes sense to sell off the assets that are higher priced" - this gain in value was small, and the sell window was very short - in fact, rather little volume of bonds could have been dumped in that tiny window without driving yields up again, and bonds down. > And these shifts weren't caused by people holding an index fund of bonds. Of course the big boys aren't clicking sell in their Vanguard account. My point was that the EDV fund is a convenient way of tracking the price of bundle of long term bond, without resorting to the actual bond equation. FRED can't plot fancy equations, so I have no way of translating yields to prices without creating a spreadsheet of yields, typing in the bond equation, converting yields to prices, making a plot, and posting on imgur. Much easier to post a link to EDV to make my point.

VeryStableGenius

> You don't understand because you're only visualizing the yield side of the bond equation, there's a price side of the equation too. I know. I know. That's my whole durn tootin' point. You make money when you buy bonds when rates are high and sell them when rates are low. But now rates are high, so if you sell any bonds you've purchased in the past 20 years you lose money, or, at best, break even. The only time you could have done buy-at-high-rates plus sell-at-low-rates is if you had bought before covid, and sold during covid, when the Fed tanked rates to negative. Look at the price curve of [EDV](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EDV/), Vanguard's long duration bond fund. The only good money making oppurtunitie were selling around 7/2020, or maybe a little bump buying in 10/2023 for 66 and selling in 1/24 for 80. Now EDV is back at 66. Bonds will go up again if the Fed re-starts QE. Otherwise, they're money losers. I don't see anyone cashing out of long term bonds at a profit.

BlueSwoosh248

Idk what to do with my EDV position. Feels like it is going to get fucked

BlueSwoosh248

Hope I can get out of EDV before it gets crushed.

NoPomegranate451

The sell off in US long bond proxies like TLT/EDV has my attention. Stocks one thing, if the world refuses to lend us money on the cheap 4D chess will quickly turn into Jenga.

Fun-Sundae4060

I would recommend VOO and 2 hedges. Perhaps 80% VOO, 10% IAUM, and 10% EDV will do you good.

Previous_Section_679

My TLT bonds and EDV are bleeding portfolio value atm

Fun-Sundae4060

For someone with zero knowledge of trading or investing, I would just recommend the good old buy and hold strategy. Basically pick some diversified ETFs, buy and keep buying. Example portfolio: 80% VOO, 10% EDV, 10% IAUM 80% equities, 10% long term bonds, and 10% gold

Fun-Sundae4060

For someone with zero knowledge of trading or investing, I would just recommend the good old buy and hold strategy. Basically pick some diversified ETFs, buy and keep buying. Example portfolio: 80% VOO, 10% EDV, 10% IAUM 80% equities, 10% long term bonds, and 10% gold

sb0918

I had no clue either - I use ChatGPT to help explain a lot of these investing strategies and comments. Hope this helps: What you’re talking about—EDV (Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF) and SGOV (iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF)—reflects two very different ends of the bond duration spectrum. Using them in turbulent times can be a way to de-risk or stabilize a portfolio, depending on your outlook. Here’s what they mean in context: ⸻ EDV – Long-Term Treasury Bonds • What it is: EDV holds long-dated U.S. Treasury STRIPS, which are zero-coupon bonds maturing 20+ years out. • Use in turbulent markets: • Pros: Tends to rally hard when interest rates drop, often during recessions or deflationary shocks. • Cons: Extremely interest-rate sensitive (high duration), so it can fall sharply when rates rise. • Why use it: If you’re expecting a flight to safety, falling interest rates, or a deflationary environment, EDV can act as a hedge or even provide strong gains. ⸻ SGOV – Very Short-Term Treasury Bonds / Money Market Alternative • What it is: SGOV invests in ultra-short-term U.S. Treasuries (0–3 months), basically giving you Treasury-backed cash. • Use in turbulent markets: • Pros: Low risk, very stable, earns yield with minimal volatility. • Cons: Won’t go up much in value, just gives you yield. • Why use it: It’s a parking spot for cash where you still earn some return (currently decent thanks to high rates), without taking on much market risk. ⸻ How They Work Together in a De-Risking Strategy • Barbell Strategy: Some investors use a barbell approach—putting part of their portfolio in long-term Treasuries (EDV) to benefit from rate cuts or recession scenarios, and the rest in very short-term Treasuries (SGOV) for safety and yield. • This can reduce equity risk while still giving you some exposure to rate-sensitive upside. • You’re hedging both directions: deflation/market crash with EDV, and interest rate uncertainty with SGOV. ⸻ Bottom Line In turbulent times: • SGOV = capital preservation, liquidity, yield without risk • EDV = high-risk/high-reward hedge for falling rates or deep recession • Using both can be a balanced de-risking approach that still positions you for some upside if conditions deteriorate.

Fun-Sundae4060

Long term treasury bonds and very short term MMF EDV and SGOV for derisking

Fun-Sundae4060

Basically I set half my money aside to do buy and hold portfolio investing. It’s 40% QLD, 30% EDV, and 30% IAUM. The other half is high-risk trading. My main trades are all in TSLA, mixing short and long positions through TSLL and TSLQ. My position changes every few days or even daily. The trading portion of my portfolio has been rapidly gaining money while the investing portion has been losing. It’s allowed me to accumulate more capital so I can later funnel the excess capital to the portfolio side.

everythingman220

I’m (27m) switching to a 90/10 (stocks/bond) portfolio because I want to be a bit less risky. I had 10% left of my Roth IRA contributions, so that went to EDV (chose this since I have 33 years left and want to stick to treasury bonds). I also shifted my TSP from a 75/25 C/S fund split to a 72/18/10 C/S/F fund split. Just in case it matters, I also have $54k in USFR to save for a down payment. Yes, I have an emergency fund put aside in a HYSA. My question pertains to adding EDV to my taxable brokerage. I know that bonds are considered tax-inefficient, but will it really be that bad if I mirror my allocation at such a low allocation %? (I’m in the 24% federal (5.75% state) tax bracket if anyone wants to do tax math)

kiwimancy

Are we looking at different funds? EDV is Vanguard's ultra-long duration bond fund.

neutral_good-

EDV with DRIP/reinvestment on.

drdrew450

Long bonds? I have 10% in EDV. I agree with what you wrote, though I don't know what happened in 2016-2017. All I remember is Trump telling Powell to lower rates.

Technical_Formal72

The amount you are investing has nothing to do with what your investing strategy should be… that depends entirely on your goal. If your goal is “long term growth” I would consider a globally diversified portfolio with a factor tilt for greater compensated risk. I would also consider adding some long bond exposure with EDV, ZROZ, or GOVZ which can decrease risk while increasing your risk adjusted returns and possibly your real returns too. Always avoid individual stocks unless you love idiosyncratic risk for some reason.

defenistrat3d

If you have world equity with bonds, you can forget it exists until you need it. VT + VGT or EDV. Done.

Previous_Section_679

Hope not my EDV, TLT might be looking a bit risky if true

flatirony

I’ve been long TLT and EDV in size for some time. They haven’t done well. I’m probably even counting yield. I think I’m gonna move to shorter term bonds for less duration risk. I just can’t get a clear picture of what’s gonna happen. Short gold and long TLT sounds dangerous to me. It could hurt a *lot* if we have a 1970’s stagflation situation due to tariffs. Losing on both sides of a pair trade is a unique form of torture. 😬

HateIsAnArt

From my understanding, inverse ETFs aren’t great to hold for that long. Personally, I’ve loaded up on long-term bonds” funds, not really as a short but more as a hedge. If the market tanks and the fed aggressively lowers rates (one of the only actions they can take), funds like EDV and TLT should see good gains. However, also can’t rule out that things just go flat for a long time rather than crash. In that scenario, shorting or hedging the market might be ineffective compared to other strategies.

spazquick815

Why is that? I have TLT and EDV. Curious to get your take.

IronyElSupremo

Browne was a good read, but while a financial guy, also a political candidate. So he wrote it right the US allowed gold to be traded freely and other inflationary shocks (Arab oil embargo). However this is when the first S&P500 index fund came out and he said to stay with assets fully invested (so a stock fund should also be near 100% as the active funds at the time could play around). Some of the companies have been absorbed when it comes to “zero-coupon” treasury funds, though one can substitute EDV or GOVZ ETFs. Some have gone on to update Browne’s “permanent portfolio” (which did well in the ‘87 crash but then didn’t do so great since) after the rest of the ‘80s, ‘90s, ’00s ‘10s to be a little more equity rich if wanting growth.

Squezeplay

A Vanguard brokerage account should let you buy most bond ETFs. Vanguard themselves offer some long term bond funds like EDV. Note that long term bonds >20 years are more risky than stocks, EDV is down over 50% from its peak in 2020. You could also consider shorter term bonds if you are just looking for less risk than stocks.

IronyElSupremo

Tax-deferred: 85/15 with 60+% in US large-ish growth and tech specific ETFs, 10% in SCHD, and 15% in IXUS (nice little dividend). Probably need to rebalance the growth to dividends and non-US. 15% bonds in 5% LQD and 10% EDV. Will be looking to buy low on these for the foreseeable. Regular? Cash

AICHEngineer

Unless you see a real good deal or a flipping opportunity, youre unlikely to beat market returns by simply acquiring a rental property. Real estate can help scale wealth fast but only if youre willing to use those properties as leverage vehicles, since the collateralized mortgages carry cheaper leverage costs than other types of loans. Best move you could do is be highly risk on with equities, full bore into diversified index funds. Want to take on the cheapest leverage you can buy? You can lever your portfolio with LETFs like SSO. Hedge against crashes with long bond funds like EDV. Fun stuff

spazquick815

If you’re in cash, might as well put it into bonds. You’ll get 4-5% and then if inflation is corrected or if there’s a growth slowdown the value of your position will go up. I’ve been using long term treasury ETF (EDV) as a hedge against recession. I don’t see inflation expectations going even higher, so feels like this is the bottom. Gives me 5% for the year.

Technical_Formal72

Big fan of this recommendation, but in a tax advantaged account I think VT + EDV or ZROZ or GOVZ at 90/10 may even be better for the younger crowd. Those options will give you a longer average duration than VGLT. This means they are more volatile and you can hold less % to bonds for roughly the same effective exposure.

defenistrat3d

Extended Duration Treasuries like EDV, ZROZ, GOVZ. Longer duration to match MY duration... but also due to the (typically) negative correlation to equities.

Screen__Watcher

They should have gone with Rivian for their EDV's.

Technical_Formal72

Timing the market is a fools game, but bonds can still be useful in an “aggressive” long-term strategy. Consider adding STRIPS to your portfolio, but only if you plan to hold them for 20-30 years. EDV, ZROZ, and GOVT are all solid ETFs for STRIPS exposure.

Practical-War-9895

Rivian has potential at yearly lows here, Daily Technicals just formed a golden cross, 12.8 Billion $$$ in loans from VW and Fed DOE, Amazon owns a 16% and supplied with EDV's, also VW owns around 8% With the market cap of RIVN currently around $12.21 Billion, this cash injection is more than Rivian total MKT CAP. Poised for a run imo.

10wazza

I already have a Rivian position, so maybe biased. They've already got enough cash on hand + 5.8bn incoming from VW and potentially another 6bn+ from DOE. Also backed by Amazon so I think they'll make it. Once they make it past 2026 Q1 i think they will be self sustainable with R2 bringing in lots of cash (and potentially profits). Also with the current administration I believe that as much as trump is anti-Evs he will not be willing to bulldoze a 100% american business to ground. Again Amazon will have quite a big say here. Again, I think their EDV business is quite overlooked, they have a big order from Amazon and I think there is lots of potential for other companies also signing up for Rivian's EDVs. Their R3 will also be a good fit for European markets. Overall I think the company has a great future if it can see itself through Q1 2026 and at the moment that is seeming easier than before.

AICHEngineer

Portfolio 2, remove BND, replace with something like EDV, GOVZ, ZROZ, something like that (long treasury bond). Historically for the last 6 decades of data, holding a sliver of the portfolio in long treasury bonds (and rebalancing annually) beats the market on all bases. Better total return, risk adjusted, lower vol, lower max drawdown. 10-30% inclusion. If youre like me and dont want to be less than 100% equities, then simply subtract 10% from VTI and buy something like SSO or UPRO (leveraged S&P exposure). For example, 73/7/10/10 VTI/UPRO/VXUS/GOVZ gives you 104% equity exposure and 10% long treasury bond exposure. Many such combinations are possible here.

Bitter-Holiday-2401

As for bonds, EDV is good because of it's low fees and high duration. Shorter duration, I don't know. I personally like TUA but that's a managed 2-year futures fund. Not what he would probably like. A vanilla IEF isn't bad either.

AICHEngineer

Youd want the best negative correlation if his fear is a crash, and thus would want a long term treasury ETF like EDV or GOVZ

Technical_Formal72

Then you should know that an argument from authority is just a logical fallacy. It doesn’t matter what you’ve done in a 35 year career, that doesn’t make your argument more or less correct. The problem is if you take that part away, you simply have no argument. You’ve failed to provide a shred of evidence to counter my point. You only said “buying extended duration bonds as a long-term set-it-and-forget-it portfolio is a hilariously poor choice”. That’s not an argument, it’s just an unsubstantiated statement said loudly. And to clarify I never claimed holding 10% EDV + 90% globally diversified stocks was a set it and forget it portfolio. You would obviously need to rebalance annually, which could in turn provide a rebalancing bonus. Nonetheless, long-duration bonds, if held to maturity, are not a bad bet at all and again still provide objectively the best diversification benefit to bonds due to their negative correlation. Marching bond duration to your investment timeline reduces interest rate risk and inflation risk.

Technical_Formal72

Long bonds are objectively the best diversifier to stocks precisely because of their negative correlation. COVID was a bit of an exception case because stocks and bonds both crashed, but that’s would be extremely unlikely to happen any time soon again. It’s important to look at how EDV works in the portfolio rather than as in individual investment. It helps protect against sequence of returns risk and can provide rebalancing bonuses.

Mrknowitall666

JFC. A 90/10 stock to mmf would have done better than that...EDV was down nearly 40% in the 2022 stock crash and its down 9% ytd today. And 90/10 anything is basic mean-variance diversification, but you'd be better off in something not so long ust bonds...even the Agg would be better

Technical_Formal72

You could consider investing in STRIPS through an etf like EDV. A 90/10 portfolio stocks to STRIPS outperformed a 100% stocks portfolio on both a real-return and risk-adjusted basis from 1987-2024

Technical_Formal72

Investing is certainly better than not investing at all given that you’re “investing” not “trading”. Long-duration treasury bond ETFs like EDV, GOVZ, and ZROZ are a great diversified to stocks. I hold EDV at 10% of my portfolio. It’s not necessarily that bonds will outperform stocks long-term but that your portfolio could outperform by holding them together both in risk-adjusted and real returns

Technical_Formal72

100% VOO will not necessarily beat a diversified portfolio of global stocks and bonds inclusive of all capitalizations even over the long-term. That’s simply untrue, but the reason to choose a TDF is mainly for simplicity. First I’d recommend diversifying stock allocation past just U.S. large caps to include developed international and emerging markets. Then I’d sprinkle in some small cap value for each geographical market. Finally add 10% EDV for long duration bond exposure. Before doing any of that make sure to research modern portfolio theory, factor investing, REALLY research diversification, sequence of returns risk, compensated vs uncompensated risk, and the importance of bonds during the accumulation phase (it’s not just for risk tolerance).

Aggressive-Donkey-10

almost every decision to buy/sell involves market timing, nothing wrong with that Warren Buffet is fairly good investor, now with 342 Billion in cash, about 60% of his investment portfolio, this may be a sign that he with his fingers into a hundred different parts of US economy thinks recession near or market correction near average corporate investment grade bond yields minus 10 year US treasury yield (corporate bond spread) and high yield bond spreads are very tight or small difference currently, when they begin to widen is when market thinks businesses may have decreased revenues in near future, however they fluctuate so needs to be a big/sustained move, but then sp500 may have already started dropping 4% decline in M2 money supply in last 2 years, any drop in M2 has a 100% correlation with impending recession in the last 100 years. prolonged inverted yield curve = high correlation, missed one time in 94 i believe rise in unemployment rate from 3.1% to now 4.1% over last 18 months political risk with Trump, remember Trump caused the recent inflation by printing 4 trillion dollars, and Biden doubled down on inflation with another 3 trillion, no American needed but every American wanted. What will he do this time? consider recession insurance with maybe 15-20% of portfolio, consider EDV/TLT, they go up a lot when we go into recession and 10/30 year US treasury yields fall, everyone buys treasuries for safety

Technical_Formal72

Not sure why OP’s age or dollar amount available for investment would have to do with the feasibility to have a diversified portfolio. Just invest in VT instead of VOO and there you go diversified stock portfolio. Just as easy to add 10% EDV and hold VT at 90% also for a more optimal level of diversification between stocks and bonds.