FCF

thenuttyhazlenut

Honestly, I couldn't find anything specific to the company relating to why it dropped today. All Chinese fintechs are down right now. QFIN was downgraded yesterday by an analyst, and a few days ago when asked about QFIN Jim Cramer said he's not interested in Chinese fintechs, but that's it lol. I have it trading at about 2.1 P/FCF right now which is ridiculous. 27% ROIC, modest revenue growth, big repurchases, and the big dividend. I feel like it can easily pop +50% over a few months when it finally recovers.

According_Fish_1248

Alphabet ($GOOGL) reports earnings tomorrow. Analysts expect EPS ~$2.25 on revenue near $94B (+10% YoY). Cloud and AI investments are front and center — with ad/search growth stabilizing but margins likely tightening. Key factors to watch: • Cloud momentum — can they stay above 25% growth? • Ad revenue resilience vs TikTok, Meta, and AI search • CapEx — AI infra spending might pressure FCF • Guidance for Q4 and FY2025 Options market is implying a ~4% move post-earnings. So what’s the bet — earnings beat and breakout, or AI spending hangover incoming?

The_Hindu_Hammer

In a market where everything seems overpriced PYPL is actually a great deal. 16 PE, 2.3 PS, 14 P/FCF, massive share buybacks, and now dividend, earnings beat, guidance raised, and OpenAI partnership. I'm buying.

The_Hindu_Hammer

In a market where everything seems overpriced PYPL is actually a great deal. 16 PE, 2.3 PS, 14 P/FCF, massive share buybacks, and now dividend, guidance beat, and OpenAI partnership. I'm buying.

Tathorn

It's all about discounts to FCF and outputs like dividends and buybacks. No one should assume buybacks grow a company. It literally does the opposite. That's like assuming dividends grow a company.

Beautiful_Lettuce603

"Aggressive" is not in absolute terms but in %Market Cap or %FCF. Look at stocks like Crox, Adobe

Gandalfderblaue41

Which bubble...yeah AI Stocks are running hot...but the companies also show growing margins, NTR, more FCF... Other sectors like medicine are not very good at the moment....

Psychological-Wish51

Entered my position on Friday. It’s a pretty obvious interest rate play, with very little downside. Name another company with $7B in FCF.

five__head

Are my Screener settings good to find generally undervalued stocks that i can look further into: P/E < 15 Marketcap > 5B P/B Ratio < 2 Debt to equity Ratio < 0,8 Beta 5 Years < 1,2 P/FCF < 20 EPS Growth 5Y: > 10%

vnilsen

Great input. Thank you. It makes sense that using P/FCF growth for a single quarter can be unstable as there can be one off expenses. I think an average FCF would make more sense if i want to include CapEx and do growth valuations on it. It seems like what i was trying to look for was EV/EBITDA/growth as you mentioned. I will try to include it in my spreadsheet. Cheers!

Weak-Pomegranate-435

If u dont want to use earnings which are skewed by Depreciation and Amortization. Then u use EBITDA, not FCF. FCF is not reliable metric for a business’s picture. And I recommend u to use EV/EBITDA instead of P/EBITDA.. bcz that includes and penalizes any debt which they may have taken or reward the company if they have alot of cash on their balance sheet.. I also use EV/EBITDA/G alot of time, bcz i cant use PEG for cyclical stocks bcz they very ofter show misleading picture..

AnotherThroneAway

It's a fair concern, but it's not actually concerning until debt and leverage come in. Which, so far, hasn't been happening due to these insane COH, FCF and fortress balance sheets of the hyperscalers

mortazavi11

Are you dumb or willfully ignoring the chart on FCF

callmecrude

It’s a fantastic business that got ahead of itself during covid and has been unjustifiably left in the dog house ever since. I’ll happily keep buying at these prices and hoping it drops lower to accumulate more. You literally can’t find another company in the entire stock market trading so cheaply right now that consistently grows revenue, has low/no debt, huge FCF, and strong margins.

cabinstudio

LPSN. Only 4.5 million share float. Company projected to be profitable next year, possibly this year (or break even) Once FCF starts flowing, possibility the market applies a growth multiple to the stock price. Currently trades around .2x revenue. Just did a capital restructure and extended runway to 2029. I’m looking at $7.45, $13-15 (there are other targets in between but I’ll skip to) $50.

Exclat

It's the entire timing the market or DCA rhetoric. Everything is at ATHs, so you would have been sitting on cash for the past 5 years? The issue with boring ETFs is that boring ETFs have too much exposure to consumption based industries. Current economy sucks, purchasing power of your average consumer has fallen significantly (top 10% now accounts for 50% of total domestic consumption in the US), and unemployment is creeping higher QOQ. This is a trend that's not going away anytime soon. Why anyone would even want to be exposed to consumer driven industries that relies on middle class spending is beyond me. I'd rather have a FCF monster sitting on a large pile of cash reserves that is not heavily reliant on consumer spending to tide me through such times. GOOGL is that play, it's the BRKB of tech and a company that will survive even if the working class becomes paupers.

EfficientAd7124

There’s zero data to support your claims. You’re going to have to prove my statements wrong when you accuse me of dishonesty. Your hyperbolic language literally means nothing to me. If there’s data to indicate that grab somehow treats its workers the “worst” please provide it. Bearish data? Give it to me. All you’re really doing is whining lol As for ride share being pricey, I’ve addressed that multiple times in the comments here; Grab will soon be able to lower its prices for rides over the next few quarters as its portfolio of services gain profitability and FCF increases. That’s the reason grab IS a super-app. The opportunity hasn’t passed it just literally is an incredible platform. It can afford to lower prices once its other features gain more revenue, because it has a wide range of services set in a cohesive environment. That places it ABOVE other applications because it will have way more revenue streams than a one-dimensional ride share company that can temporarily out-price $GRAB. So it is, literally, a super app. Far beyond other services in scope

EfficientAd7124

There’s zero data to support your claims. You’re going to have to prove my statements wrong when you accuse me of dishonesty. Your hyperbolic language literally means nothing to me. If there’s data to indicate that grab somehow treats its workers the “worst” please provide it. Bearish data? Give it to me. All you’re really doing is whining lol As for ride share being pricey, I’ve addressed that multiple times in the comments here; Grab will soon be able to lower its prices for rides over the next few quarters as its portfolio of services gain profitability and FCF increases. That’s the reason grab IS a super-app. The opportunity hasn’t passed it just literally is an incredible platform. It can afford to lower prices once its other features gain more revenue, because it has a wide range of services set in a cohesive environment. That places it ABOVE other applications because it will have way more revenue streams than a one-dimensional ride share company that can temporarily out-price $GRAB. So it is, literally, a super app. Far beyond this ther services in scope

EfficientAd7124

Fair enough. 1.) Grab’s pricing for rides in Thailand is indeed higher than some alternatives, but that premium is just because grab has a larger and more mature, vertically integrated ecosystem rather than inefficiency. The rest of grabs services are springing into profitability this year and next year. That will lower prices a lot. As scale increases and operational efficiencies continue improving, the cost per ride and delivery will naturally decline. This has already begun across other markets, where incentive spending as a percentage of GMV has fallen steadily yoy, that means they have healthier unit economics and better pricing capabilities. Once their prices the programs become profitable (most have great FCF this year, lending is the only one lagging behind, since it’s new), rideshare and taxi services can actually be made significantly cheaper. 2.) What differentiates Grab from other ride-hailing apps is its integrated model. Users are not simply paying for a car ride, theyre engaging with a financial, logistics, and payments platform that connects transport, food, lending, and insurance into one ecosystem. It’s cohesive, and consumers love cohesive, multifunctional applications. While in theory consumers could use multiple apps for different needs, in practice convenience, trust, and data integration create a lot of convenience for users. Drivers and consumers both benefit from a unified rewards system, consistent payment method, and safety features that competitors will be able to match less and less as Grabs efficiency improves. 3.) Thailand’s smaller competitors like Bolt and Lineman succeed on price but lack the infrastructure to scale across financial services or expand regionally. They are single-vertical businesses in a market that is trending toward digital convergence. As economic conditions improve, the value shifts away from low-cost transactional services toward integrated, service-rich ecosystems, and Grab already occupies that space. Basically they are one-dimensional, which makes them better at that one thing, until grab improves their portfolio of services and crushes their competitors with lower prices. The CEO is confident that GRAB can increase margins and grow profitability in all their services. Once they have multiple heavy sources of FCF they can seriously lower prices. 3.) The company’s long-term advantage lies in its position as Southeast Asia’s de facto digital gateway. Millions of underbanked users in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines now enter digital finance through GrabPay and its lending services. FYI, its lending services also are lowering its FCF, so that appears as a slowdown in growth but it’s not. As household incomes rise and mobile access expands, these users basically become higher-value participants within Grab’s ecosystem. Each new layer of financial inclusion, from ride-hailing to payments, to credit and insurance, increases value for the customer and increases value for Grab. 4.) let’s say that Grabs alternative services somehow stop growing entirely this quarter. That means there’s no extra cash coming in for grab to lower its prices for rises. Then, even if competitors might continue to capture segments of market share, the revenue contribution per percentage point of market share is growing. As Grab monetizes more services per user and gains operational efficiency, profitability rises faster than sheer volume. Over time, that means the company’s earnings potential expands even in a fragmented market, making its position stronger, not weaker, in the face of competition. Put simply, I’m bullish on South east Asia. If GRAB loses market share but the overall pie is larger, then grab is still priced cheaply relative to what it could be in 5 years. Thanks for your question and please let me know if you have any more questions or concerns, I’m not trying to lose money here so I welcome all negative sentiment wholeheartedly.

SloppyGuiseppe99

NEM has amazing ER beat estimates for EPS by 20% Record FCF Debt gone Why is it down ? Genuinely confused Can someone explain it to me like I’m 10 years old?

After-Question3165

Waiting for production guidance and FCF

thalassamikra

NEM - insane FCF, good guidance, even the AISC is slightly down. Could not have been better. But of course the demented algos trading miners AH are trying to sell it off

Much_Candle_942

check Nokia PS ratio, FCF ratio, prospects all good 

Jerikolol

its possibly +44% FCF qow and prolly yet another 100% for q4 in 3 months. Q2 was with gold at 3200. Q3 was with 3450s. Q4 will be with 4100+

ChuckOfTheIrish

There will always be people like that, heck people not thinking about the financials is how these bubbles are created in the first place. With a career in corporate finance, you'd be shocked how few people care about financials until they get laid off because they ignored the warnings and recommendations finance and operations teams provide. I do get the baseline of an irrational valuation which is why any investments are even considered a potential bubble, but yeah this one has a foundation where dot com was 99% on potential, so could still be considered a bubble but the comparisons are not based in logic. Pets.com as the prime example never once showed profit and had 25M revenue less 110M in for a net loss of 85M in their most successful year, but had hundreds of millions in valuation due to irrational buyers when it should have been worth pennies. Inversely, NVDA has TTM revenue of 165 billion, extremely healthy profit margins, and over 60 billion in FCF, commitments from the other biggest organizations in the world to spend hundreds of billions in CapEx on NVDA, and such a good product that POTUS creates barriers to keep their product out of China for fear of military and world power implications. Competition will lower their market share without question, but as AI spending increases and companies figure out how to properly use it, NVDA and their competitors will all see a cut of an ever-increasing pie.

Important-Ninja3544

True. I am an advocate of tracking data-driven signals so I like such metrics as forward P/E and PEG (for major AI stocks), Capex/FCF, Net Debt/EBITDA and YoY debt growth (for AI hyperscalers - MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META) and trailing-90-day tech IPO count and their average first day return. And so far, I see that YoY debt growth increased significantly (around +33%) which means debt is increasingly financing this bubble. Here's a separate thread on the current AI bubble: r/bubbleWatch

ptwonline

Oracle is upping the ante for the other big AI plyers. The others were just using a portion of their FCF or else cashing in on some of their lofty equity prices to power their AI investments. Oracle is actually borrowing a lot and accelerating things so we may see the others decide they also need to accelerate.

Dinkmers

They had like no FCF last quarter so maybe it's just averaging out

OnSiteOnTheMike

You do realize it has a crazy high pe ratio, low FCF yield and strong competition to its core business. The stock didn't only fall because of the Brazilian tax

loliveerr

Sorry to necro the post - one thing to add here that I don't see anybody mention: DLO paid a special 0.50$ dividend this year and they plan to pay out a regular dividend equal to 30% of FCF. The CEO essentially said they don't need much cash to grow and they decided to pay out profits to shareholders on the regular starting next year. This is still relatively unknown - the stock won't \* yet \* pop up in screeners for people who are investing for dividends. Not that many companies out there that regularly grow the dividend and manage to grow themselves as well. This one might become a dividend aristocrat or whatever the dividend chasers call these companies. Now knowing the company committed to pay out 30% of FCF as dividends, re-read this part of OP's TL;DR: \> DLO crushed Q2 (53% TPV growth, 50% rev growth, 156% FCF gain) This will attract exactly the type of investors who will be happy to receive the dividends and let this thing compound. It might even end up as core holding of some dividend/payout focused funds. And I think many of those people will reinvest their dividends, completing the wheel. DISLCLAIMER: That said, I have mostly leaps. Will move to 100% shares later.

AlfredoAllenPoe

When investors remember that Apple's revenue and profits are stagnant Apple's revenue has grown at just 3.17% over the past 2 years. Apple's net income has grown at just 2.36% over the past 2 years. Adjust for inflation, real sales and real profit are down. Apple's free cash flow has declined by 2.41% over the past 2 years while FCF/share has only increased by 0.18%. Investors are going to Apple because they see it as safe, but the company's share price becomes less and less safe as more and more people buy into it without a corresponding increase in profit.

Stonkgang_

Turning FCF positive, 2nd largest burger chain in the world. A retail favourite name but none of them are long. In my opinion we see activist investor news soon, management shake up or retail Frenzy. Literally every day all anybody talks about on here is Wendy’s yet nobody is backing it, I’m betting they will.

cbusoh66

Don't understand the fascination with NBIS, you want to own a neocloud, don't own a European company that has to pay high taxes and get suffocated with various regulations and laws. Microsoft contract is great and dandy, but it won't translate into the FCF everyone thinks it will. And, like CRWV, they need to continue to raise capital and issue debt or sell shares just to stay above water.

Time-Philosophy0323

For a senior finance manager, from another finance manager, this post was extremely lackluster and uninsightful DD. Where are the multiples now, vs peers and vs historical. Where are the FCF and ROE mentions, where are the reasons for why the price isn’t fully baked in already…

Existing-Ad-9485

My eyes are on Netflix ($NFLX) this quarter. The consensus is strong, driven by those huge engagement numbers from shows like *Squid Game*, but the real thesis is the financial shift. UBS is forecasting 30% operating income growth next year, showing the price increases and ad tiers are significantly boosting margins. If they hit anywhere near that $9.2 billion FCF this year, we’ll know the transition from growth story to profit engine is complete.

thalassamikra

NEM has earnings this Thursday. Fingers crossed for current gold prices getting reflected in their FCF!

SAC-MichaelScarn

Gold mining stocks. Gold doubled and so did the mining stocks. But the mining stock FCF is up 11x…. Long NEM, and especially EQX and BTG. These last two are severely undervalued .NFA. Good luck

ninjamammal

Are company buybacks a frequent or common thing among big tech firms? Or even maintaining dividends, wouldn't the companies risk both for a potential increase in future profits? I agree with ROI being next to zero on the AI project, that's why there is a huge push for B2B and government applications rather than focusing on consumer models. This will definitely see an increase in the short-term cash flow for the big techs. What do you mean multiples are tied to FCF? Just learning

Common_Arm_9348

Sure so essentially it's this. People say FCF is strong for tech. If you factor in buy backs and dividends, FCF is reduced. We are seeing Capx spending increase right now, but a lot of companies aren't showing results yet.  My concern is that we are overestimating the real amount of FCF with these companies. If they need to pick between increasing Capx on AI, dividends, and buybacks, Capx will be reduced first.  Right now I don't see the spending slowing down. However I. Q3 of 2026? Idk. So the point here is to keep your eye on the real FCF of these tech companies because the multiples are tied to FCF.  Again, I am not saying the issue is AI spending will go down, but the rate of the increase of spending YOY may slow down if FCF doesn't improve from these AI investments. 

Crunch101010

I’ve bought up some BTI recently. Lot of growth in smokeless/pouch, 10%+ FCF yield, around 10-11x forward earnings, and a nice dividend if you can get it in a retirement sheltered account. Not a lot of solid blue chip quality USA stocks trading like that right now.

madrox1

The stock dropped bc the 2 new co-CEOs had a mtg on Thu with analysts to explain their financing strategy for future expensive AI datacenter buildouts. They were supposed to have a plan for it until at least 2030. They were supposed to present concrete facts about their plan but instead they were very general and talked up instead the potential of AI and didnt touch much on financing. To build one of these AI datacenters is huge capex involved and Oracle will have more debt than FCF after the numbers are crunched. This is why the stock dropped. Not just because the stock was taking a break from the big run up. The buildout is also so exp bc Nvidia charges so much for their high tech chips. That is also another reason why NVDA is so involved in the vendor financing of the deals and the circular nature of AI investments among a few big players. Jensen and Oracle can spin out how the plans are feasible but they are biased due to their own self-interest. Wall St is coming around to how the big AI plans will have financing issues also just bc the numbers are so large. Oracle cant issue debt or corporate bonds forever to raise money..

FarrisAT

P to FCF - SBC is a stupid metric Completely uncorrelated with returns.

Much_Candle_942

Checks all the boxes for a good stock: PE, PS, FCF. Data centers, 6G, Finnish prez singing praises of it, sitting next to Trumb. All good 👌👌 https://youtu.be/1XmnKjx3LYw

dbasea

Nice thesis—just remember muni spend often lags rate cuts and budgets drive timing, so watch backlog, bid activity, price vs volume in organic growth, gross margin, and FCF conversion to confirm it. Size the position conservatively, consider potential sponsor overhang and weather seasonality, predefine what invalidates (e.g., backlog or margin compression), and journal adds/trims around earnings :).

dbasea

KMX looks like a rate-sensitive turnaround, not dead: if volumes, GPU, and CAF losses stabilize as rates ease, upside exists, but I'd size small, wait for improving FCF over the next 1–2 quarters, and protect risk given CVNA pressure; more at mr-profit com.

MitchCurry

Looks like we'll have another eVTOL company in the public markets soon. Beta Technologies IPO range is $27 to $33/sh indicating a market cap up to $7.2B. FY2024 revenue came in at $15MM, which would be a healthy 480 P/S. Use H1'25 run rate of $31MM annual revenue and that P/S is an even healthier 232! They lost had an operating loss of $272MM last year and $157MM the first 6 months of 2025. Meanwhile FCF was -$291MM in 2024 and -$126MM in H1'25. At least their balance sheet isn't loaded with debt but they had enough cash as of June 2025 to survive *maybe* another 12 months if they couldn't raise additional funds. So, yeah, such an easy pass, just like ARCH and JOBY are easy passes for me. The idea that these things will be flying around our cities is just not believable to me. The obstacle is practicality, not technical. eVTOLs will become a thing, replacing helicopters in some areas and serving high-value, niche services (transport from a luxury hotel to an airport, urgent medical transport, cargo movement is less populated areas, but that's it. We aren't living in the age of the Jetsons.

Much_Candle_942

Need to check my eyes 👀  IBKR FCF ratio is 100%?

Adventurous-Tea-9241

FCF and buyback monster. I think sentiment is too negativ

creemeeseason

ODD now trading at 3.5x P/C. 16x EV/FCF. And growing sales at 25% annually. No idea why, just slowly buying.

Dismal-Conference-76

They have their own AI engine called LumenAI built right into their WorkLife platform. They do partner with OpenAI, in the same way others like Microsoft use it, as it makes no sense for them to create their own LLM when they can simply plug one into their own platform. Givven the amount of data that client companies provide to Alight from HR, health, wealth management, and Alight's own sales data, the ability to optimize and manage with AI tools is a huge margin booster. The company has 9,400 employees or so, and can continue to remain asset light as they pursue higher gross margins. The financials are actually fairly good. -$2.3B annual revenue on an $1.6B market cap -growing Free Cash Flow, with the dividend well covered at 30% of FCF -paying down debt aggressively, cutting it's debt down from $4B to $2B in just 3 years -have never diluted investors, and have plenty of cash to sustain operations, they've bought back 36 million shares (about 7% of shares outstanding) and still have a fairly aggressive $281M share repurchase authorization. Of the $1B loss for Q2, $982B was the one time impairment for the Health write down. So going forward, the company will have that off the books, as analysts have even acknowledged the balance sheet is much more cleaned up now. In 2026 they'll reduce their $600M TRA by $200M or so, which is the tax receivable agreement from the spac that will eventually be fully rolled off the balance sheet at this point. To summarize, Alight is responsible with its cash, its paid down it's debt, and on a DCF model calculation it's worth around $8-11/share. This company is doing all of the things I want to see a company do to properly protect its balance sheet.

Much_Candle_942

it's an FCF cash machine at the moment, like PYPL

Dismal-Conference-76

The company is betting on itself. They bought back almost 7 percent of their shares, and have an additional $250B share repurchase authorization. Dividend is well covered by cash flow (30% of FCF) and 40% growth by 2027. This isn't unprofitable OpenDoor lol. This is a real business with real customers that doesn't rely on interest rates or some magic business pivot. Keep the questions coming, I love defending my thesis 😁

MarketCrunchAI

founder here (ex Amazon): probably never. Why? Focus is on FCF. Here’s a story: After a few years at Amazon, I decided to switch roles internally. What started was a journey to meet multiple verticals spread from ads, grocery, fashion, sellers, alexa, and more! These roles were focused on a 2-pizza teams (2PT*) focused on one line item for a business P&L. I moved that month but later realized that the level of focus this company has on the business — not to mention customers — is insane. Multiply that with recent madness in “1000s of AI projects” and they can really take time — and investment — to be right in long term and maximize free cash flow (FCF). so no, don’t expect dividends, and I’d sell my shares the day Amzn starts doing it :) *2PT: lingo for small enough team that can be fed with two pizza (typically 6 members)

Bradydono92

Really thoughtful thread. What’s wild is how closely Microvast now mirrors the early-turnaround phase of Enphase (2017) and Tesla (2018) — positive EBITDA/FCF, 30 %+ gross margins, yet still trading at distressed multiples. [How Enphase and Tesla Foreshadow Microvast—and Why $MVST May Become the First U.S.–China Battery Bridge](https://investingbpd.substack.com/p/how-tesla-and-enphase-foreshadow) I added some context to this piece since publishing for those interested. The write-up digs into that setup and why MVST’s “U.S.–China battery bridge” model (Texas HQ, Huzhou + Clarksville capacity, solid-state pilot in 2027, Nat’l security index inclusion, New BMS Patent, ATM offering) could make it the missing link between domestic policy and global supply chains. https://preview.redd.it/1n2k2ogrpwuf1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=560bb768be3e9f21da03b663f39128e75ad669c3

decomposition_

I’ve outperformed the indexes by investing in strong compounders with low PEGs and great FCF metrics

Significant-Pair-275

Great write-up! It aligns well with what my deep research tool gave me: Duolingo’s fundamentals are strong, revenue has scaled rapidly (FY2024 \~$748M; TTM to 2025-06-30 \~$885M), profitability and operating cash generation improved meaningfully (FCF \~\\$264M in FY2024), and the platform benefits from multiple monetization levers plus a widely accepted Duolingo English Test. Management’s AI-first roadmap (e.g., Duolingo Max, AI-authored courses) could further lift engagement, conversion, and pricing power. However, the stock already embeds a lot of this success (P/E \~132x; P/S \~17.6x), leaving a limited margin of safety amid platform dependence (Apple/Google/Stripe), FX/inflation sensitivities, and intensifying AI competition from Big Tech. Key information \- Profitable scale with rising operating income and strong FCF. \- Diversified revenue streams and institutional DET acceptance (>5,600 programs) support durability. \- AI-enabled features expand the upsell path and ARPU potential. \- Valuation is premium and assumes sustained outperformance; execution and platform risks are nontrivial.

Independent_Name_601

Thank you for your insights on this. From a consumer standpoint both companies offer similar but different experiences even though they operate similar ports and excursions. They definitely feel different when on board. Reviewing the numbers: By all indications (other than top line) RCL appears to be a better run company - if you see something different I am all ears. Top line revenue is a growth metric but it looks at a point in time, given that CCL is larger than RCL it’s not a surprise they have a higher revenue reported. In my thesis I look at change in revenue over the past 5 years RCL crushes CCL. 50% growth in revenue ($10.95B in 2019 vs $16.48B in 2024). CCL has around 20% growth, still respectable ($20B in 2019 vs $25.02B in 2024). In 2019 total cruise revenue was $53.3B over industry. This means at the time, CCL owned about 40% of the market. With RCL, they owned a combined 60% of the market. Fast forward to 2024 and the combined revenues of CCL and RCL are 41.5B vs $55.66B (total cruise revenue was virtually stagnate over the 5 years due to COVID travel), yet CCL was only able to grow revenues from $20B to $25B and control 44.9% of market - whereas RCL has increased revenues to $16.48B and improved their market share to 29.6% of market. Still less than CCL but based on their growth and projected growth they will eclipse CCL as top Cruise line in near future, and likely be able to do it with less passengers which creates higher demand and pricing ability and better overall efficiency. Further, as I noted CF, FCF, levered FCF, etc are all better for RCL - which adds to their attractiveness as an investment, despite the debt loads of both companies. Now, the risk is definitely in play because CCL could acquire an additional cruise line and bolster their financials. Especially with their focus on debt repayment. Also as I note above RCL is still a smaller line than CCL (about 70%) of the size. If current metrics are maintained for both companies my guess is RCL will be top cruise line on all valuation metrics sometime in early 2030s. CCLs moat is being chipped away at by RCL and smaller cruise lines. Their stock price, even with the higher valuation on a P/E basis is poised to continue to go higher. I do think both companies will see decent returns, you won’t go wrong with CCL, but overall I think opportunity is higher with RCL. Even during COVID this was true, and coming out of COVID CCL is still lagging RCL at the stock market level.

Independent_Name_601

It really depends what you want in a cruise. CCL offers the majority of their cruises off US ports based on what I can find available. CCL offers shorter cruises that target a younger audience. CCL cruises tend to be a cheaper option. CCL ships are smaller. CCL ships are older. I did not intend to show bias. CCL is a great option. I still think CCL from a brand standpoint is more in line with Pepsi. CCL is a widely-known brand, widely-accessible for everyone-type product. RCL is like coke, it’s a more polished, luxurious type product. Nothing wrong with either brand. With that said, RCL and CCL are in the same class, I just feel RCL is a peg or two ahead right now due to their current positioning. Even on valuation basis the higher premium is evident of that in the RCL stock. It doesn’t CCL can’t change that because they probably can, and will likely do so. But at this time it’s RCL for me. Despite higher revenues, net income was higher for RCL as well as FCF. Which indicates thinner margins for CCL.

Old-Turnip7178

🚀🚀 PCSA 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why I’m Eyeing PCSA stock right now I’ve been digging into PCSA (ticker: PCSA) and I think there’s a case for considering a position, especially if you’re favored toward growth with improving fundamentals. Here’s a quick snapshot that influenced my view. Financial snapshot (latest reported) Revenue: $420 million for the latest twelve months, up 22% year over year. Gross margin: 62%, showing scalable unit economics and pricing power. Adjusted EBITDA: $58 million, with margin expanding to 13.8% of revenue. Free cash flow: $28 million in the latest quarter, consistent positive FCF over the last four quarters. Net debt: $120 million, with a healthy balance sheet and a leverage ratio of 1.6x net debt/EBITDA. Why this stands out Growth trajectory: Revenue grew from $344 million a year ago, supported by a growing customer base and higher average sell price per unit. Path to profitability: Operating leverage is kicking in as fixed costs dilute with higher volumes, improving margins even before potential scale benefits. Cash generation: Positive free cash flow suggests the business can self-fund growth, reducing reliance on external capital. Market tailwinds: The company operates in a space benefiting from digitization trends, with expanding addressable market and recurring revenue streams. PCSA looks positioned for continued top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation.

Much_Candle_942

In this jungle of dirty companies, **$TDOC** stands out with 0.6 PS and near 20% FCF.

caliwillbemine

Everyone has PTs chasing momentum. Figure out a way to get their actual model and laugh. Shit like GS’s valuation of Oklo. Their model has a 50/50 split of a 2040 DCF and 2035 EBITDA where they just slap on a 4% real terms FCF for infinity. So the valuation is 45% based on a terminal value that they slap a 40x multiple on. And the ev/ebitda multiple is slapped on at 50x. These valuations and models are insane. This is a fucking car loan company based on preying on poor people who won’t have access to capital in the next ten years at all.

RiskDry6267

Not when they print 100b of FCF yearly

Old-Turnip7178

Why I’m Eyeing PCSA stock right now I’ve been digging into PCSA (ticker: PCSA) and I think there’s a case for considering a position, especially if you’re favored toward growth with improving fundamentals. Here’s a quick snapshot that influenced my view. Financial snapshot (latest reported) Revenue: $420 million for the latest twelve months, up 22% year over year. Gross margin: 62%, showing scalable unit economics and pricing power. Adjusted EBITDA: $58 million, with margin expanding to 13.8% of revenue. Free cash flow: $28 million in the latest quarter, consistent positive FCF over the last four quarters. Net debt: $120 million, with a healthy balance sheet and a leverage ratio of 1.6x net debt/EBITDA. Growth trajectory: Revenue grew from $344 million a year ago, supported by a growing customer base and higher average sell price per unit. Path to profitability: Operating leverage is kicking in as fixed costs dilute with higher volumes, improving margins even before potential scale benefits. Cash generation: Positive free cash flow suggests the business can self-fund growth, reducing reliance on external capital. Market tailwinds: The company operates in a space benefiting from digitization trends, with expanding addressable market and recurring revenue streams. Bottom line PCSA looks positioned for continued top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation.

Old-Turnip7178

Why I’m Eyeing PCSA stock right now I’ve been digging into PCSA (ticker: PCSA) and I think there’s a case for considering a position, especially if you’re favored toward growth with improving fundamentals. Here’s a quick snapshot that influenced my view. Financial snapshot (latest reported) Revenue: $420 million for the latest twelve months, up 22% year over year. Gross margin: 62%, showing scalable unit economics and pricing power. Adjusted EBITDA: $58 million, with margin expanding to 13.8% of revenue. Free cash flow: $28 million in the latest quarter, consistent positive FCF over the last four quarters. Net debt: $120 million, with a healthy balance sheet and a leverage ratio of 1.6x net debt/EBITDA. Growth trajectory: Revenue grew from $344 million a year ago, supported by a growing customer base and higher average sell price per unit. Path to profitability: Operating leverage is kicking in as fixed costs dilute with higher volumes, improving margins even before potential scale benefits. Cash generation: Positive free cash flow suggests the business can self-fund growth, reducing reliance on external capital. Market tailwinds: The company operates in a space benefiting from digitization trends, with expanding addressable market and recurring revenue streams. Bottom line PCSA looks positioned for continued top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation.

builder45647

But using 10x FCF these should be higher. And if you're buying developers with gold in the ground, they're still valued at like 35 bucks an ounce

Much_Candle_942

**$TDOC** is actually making money in this madness of shit Cos. Just look at FCF, PS ratio of 0.6.

plznodownvotes

FCF is also predicted to keep climbing. P/E well below its competitors. I just don’t see a reason why we won’t see a significant upside in the next few months.

Much_Candle_942

$TDOC is actually making money in this madness (FCF). PS ratio 0.6. Mental health 🤯 trainwrecks.. here we go 🚀 

Few_Audience8541

OP, you really find a hidden gem! First Half Financial Results are neutral, their EBITDA and FCF are shrink, still there’s a great chance of bounce back. Thank you for highlighting TNL

CanYouPleaseChill

Forward P/Es are nonsense when expectations are unrealistically high and analysts can’t even accurately forecast one quarter ahead. If you look at FCF - SBC, the story is very different for Big Tech. They’re not reasonably priced at all if the return on all that capex isn’t there.

mayorolivia

I don’t see this moving Nvidia’s stock much. Tiny stake. This is very smart by Nvidia by the way. Using their FCF to get equity across the ecosystem. ROI will be better than buy backs.

Much_Candle_942

P/FCF is even juicer 🤤

Much_Candle_942

PYPL set for blockbuster earnings on 28.10.  PE 15, FCF ratio 7% and that controversial browser plugin should help too.  It's going head on with Klarna, and giving 5% cashback on BNPL checkouts.

Much_Candle_942

price to FCF ratio wants a word with you 😉

Short-Taro-5156

META? The company who is about to turn all of their FCF into data center capex spend? Color me doubtful. At least Google has structural advantages over competitors in the AI space.

Remarkable-Drive3503

The AI trade isnt about a bubble. It's about SURVIVABILITY. If you have the FCF, and yields are fucking tanking. You make that fucking bet because YOU CAN. The other broke fuck that didnt have the cash, wont bet there tomorrow. YOU WILL. So scary as it sounds, YOU BET with the fuckers that HAVE THE CASH. It's bullish no matter how you look at it.

Kandals

Nvidia is essentially self-financing demand by investing in a feedback loop with openai and oracle. Since GPUs are high margin it shows really impressive free cash flow. Nvidia is expecting tremendous future demand but if the demand slows in any of the companies in the feedback loop then it could get pretty bad. I don't think FCF is good in this case because it doesn't reflect actual organic demand right now. It's like how China's GDP was growing fast so that increased future expectations, so they built cities for future growth, but the building of cities caused GDP to grow, so expectations increased, so more cities were built to match new expectations, etc. It's a big bet on the future demand of AI (not just large language models).

bzl33

> Ok, all great, but where is the MONEY going to come from? > OAI, now with Stargate, $NVDA, and now $AMD, has said to spend and build 26GW of data centers in the next few years. 1GW = $60B. So the total "committed" spend is now at $1.56T. > In the last 5 years, $AAPL, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, and $GOOGL have generated a TOTAL of $1.4T of FCF in those 5 years. Interesting tweet. I guess it doesn't matter to ponder though.

That-Whereas3367

LOL. They are cooking the books by selling hardware, software and services to each other at inflated prices. The FCF is just accounting BS.

JustLizzyBear

That revenue growth and FCF growth is very concerning I'm not sure what message you think this oversimplified graphic sends

BagelsRTheHoleTruth

Seriously. Look at FCF of the leading companies. They're fucking money printing machines. If there's a bubble pop, the high beta names will get scorched, but the big players aren't going anywhere, and any dip will eventually get bought up.

KDingo2

Not like one would think. Capex intense residential fiber has a horribly long payback vs enterprise. The deal will unlock another $1B in FCF(700M interest +300m capex)

yngmsss

Brother, check the numbers. P/E around 134, P/FCF near 93. Some will argue “it’s newly listed” or “you should use alternative metrics” but that doesn’t change the math. If you want to be the one holding the stick while it’s burning fine, just know this setup is closer to musical chairs than value investing. Don’t be the one left standing when the music stops. Risk here is excessive relative to fundamentals.

brbsara

Shout out to OP for earlier contributions. Comparing **IRWD vs ABCL** risk/reward (used LLM as well). What am I overlooking in ABCL? # IRWD – Upside Case * **Close**: $1.43 * **Fair value**: \~$2.10 (DCF on royalty stream) → **\~47% upside** * **Q2 Highlights**: * LINZESS rev $85.7M, adj. EBITDA $50.1M, net income $23.6M * Cash $93M vs. \~$199M notes due 2026 * 2025 guide: rev $260–290M, EBITDA >$105M * **Valuation**: \~$120M FCF/yr, discounted over 6 yrs → \~$2.10/sh equity “floor” * **Risks**: optimistic FCF conversion, royalty erosion, working capital drag, unmodeled liabilities # ABCL – Snapshot * Rev $17.1M, R&D $39M, net loss –$34.7M * Liquidity \~$753M (cash + funding) * No stable cash flow; valuation tied to pipeline progress & clinical milestones **Contrast**: IRWD = royalty “floor” undervalued \~47% upside; ABCL = strong cash but pure pipeline risk.

su_blood

Cash is not declining, there was a decent decline a few years ago but since then is projected to increase (slightly). There were also one time costs associated with the split from Liberty Media. It’s a cash flow play, 5% dividend which is not under threat and will grow as they increase dividends. Plus add in the large buy backs, FCF is at 15%. I own a good chunk. It’s like a better performing bond to me. Stable and high cash returns. Operating margins from memory are something like 50%. They can continue to produce cash by cutting expenses and paying off debt, which they have been. In a few years I see the worst case scenario being a stagnant share price with 5-7% returns in that time frame. Best case share price increases due to buybacks and cost cutting in addition to the 5-7% dividend return.

jrex035

This is genuinely beyond ridiculous. Government shut down with absolutely no end in sight? Stocks go up! Worst September ADP jobs numbers in over a decade with previous months being revised downwards so that 3 of the last 4 months are now negative, all while government data reporting is on indefinite hiatus due to aforementioned shutdown? Stocks go up! The economy increasingly being propped up by unsustainable government debt spending and megacaps dumping 60+% of their FCF into data centers we dont have enough energy to power, all to pursue a technology that no one has been able to successfully capitalize so far? Believe it or not, stocks go up! Just throw a dart at a board and youll see double digit returns on your investment within a month or two, or within days if you're lucky enough to hit a pre-revenue tech company promising some vaporware like VTOL taxis or quantum computing or nuclear fusion. Surely this is a permanent rally, we're all gonna be rich!

smokeyjay

Rubrik -cybersecurity company that focuses on cloud security, data protection, identity protection, among other things. \> rule of 40 - growing revenue 51% with 19% FCF margin. Quarterly revenue more than 300 million w/ a market cap of 16 billion. NRR is 120%. ARR growing 35% to 1.25 billion. Stock dilution is slowing to projected 2% increase for 2026 as they become more discipline and shareholder friendly. On a valuation metric, they are cheaper while growing revenue faster than many of their other competitors. They also have partnerships w/ Microsoft and crowdstrike. Bear case- cybersecurity is pretty competitive. I like to go to /r sysadmin and reviews seem overwhelmingly positive. There stock dropped after earnings despite beating expectations because they guided lower than expected. I initiated a position then in the high 70s. With the recent high profile ransomware attacks, I think its overall bullish for the sector.

thebuttdemon

No recovery path? My brother in Christ they are sitting on almost $2.5bn in cash, and in Q4, they'll be expecting at least $400m in additional FCF. They're not some flailing company. People are fed up with buying shitty Shein clothing and shitty mid-range marked up clothing. Quality budget is where it's at, and $GAP is owning that space.

FastFwdFrank

Stole this from someone on X. Not exactly what you’re looking for but it is extremely thorough: “You are an equity research analyst. Produce a rigorous, source-backed investment memo on {Company} [{Ticker}] with a clear Buy, Hold, or Sell call. Rules for research and writing 1) Use only verifiable, recent sources. Prioritize official filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, regulatory documents, reputable industry data, and high quality media. Cite every non-obvious fact with a link and date. 2) Separate facts from interpretation. Tag each paragraph as Fact, Analysis, or Inference. 3) Use precise dates. Avoid vague time references. 4) Quantify claims. Show math for derived metrics. Use tables where helpful. 5) Note uncertainty. Call out missing data and state assumptions. Deliverables A) Executive summary (8 to 12 bullets): snapshot, thesis, rating, price targets and time frames, key drivers, key risks, near-term catalysts, and what would change the call. B) Full memo with sections 1 through 15 below. C) Appendix: source list with links and dates, data tables, and a simple operating model. 1) Thesis framing (purpose: define what must be true to create value) - State the core investment question in one sentence. - List 3 to 5 thesis pillars that would make the stock attractive. - List disconfirming evidence to test that could break the thesis. 2) Market structure and size (purpose: size the prize and trajectory) - Quantify TAM, SAM, SOM. Segment by product line, customer size, industry, and geography. - Identify growth drivers: regulation, replacement cycles, macro activity, technology adoption. - Estimate current penetration and runway. Compare against peer adoption curves. 3) Customer segments and jobs to be done (purpose: map who buys and why) - Describe mix by size band and industry. Identify buyer roles and budget owners. - Detail core workflows and pain points. Explain mission criticality. - Assess switching costs and vendor lock-in by segment. 4) Product and roadmap (purpose: evaluate product-market fit and durability) - Summarize core modules and adjacent products. Call out differentiators. - Compare depth vs breadth versus best point solutions. - Explain implementation time, integrations, configurability, and typical time to value. - Provide quality and reliability signals: uptime, incident history, mobile performance. - Roadmap credibility: stated milestones versus delivery track record. 5) Competitive landscape (purpose: position the company) - Identify direct and indirect competitors by segment and size. - Compare pricing, packaging, and feature gaps. Include switching friction and contract terms. - Summarize win or loss reasons from reviews, case studies, and disclosed data. 6) Go-to-market and distribution (purpose: test scalability of new-logo engine) - Break down demand sources: inbound, outbound, partner referrals, marketplaces. - Sales productivity: ramp, quota attainment, conversion rates where disclosed or inferred. - Role of channels and partnerships: integrations, OEMs, platforms. - Services and customer success model. Training and community as moat. 7) Retention and expansion (purpose: quantify durability of revenue) - Report gross and net dollar retention by cohort and segment if disclosed or estimable. - Explain logo churn drivers and timing. Provide a churn curve if possible. - Identify expansion vectors: seat growth, module attach, usage-based add-ons. - Discuss contract length, renewal mechanics, and price increase policies. - Include reference-call insights or credible review synthesis. 8) Monetization and embedded finance if applicable (purpose: understand usage economics) - Revenue streams and pricing model. For payments or fintech: share of customers active, GTV penetration, take rate by tender type, blended margin, cost stack, fraud exposure, and who holds credit risk. - Revenue recognition: gross vs net. Seasonality and cyclicality. - ARPU uplift from usage products. Payback on onboarding. 9) Unit economics and efficiency (purpose: test scalability with profitable growth) - CAC, payback period, magic number, LTV to CAC by segment if available or estimable. - Contribution margin by line: software vs usage vs services. - Cohort profitability and cash contribution over time. - Implementation and support cost over customer lifetime. 10) Financial profile (purpose: link operations to financial outcomes) - Revenue mix and growth by component. Gross margin by line. Operating leverage path. - Rule of 40 and efficiency trends. GAAP to cash flow bridge. - Leading indicators: billings, RPO, backlog. - SBC, dilution, and share count trajectory. - Liquidity, working capital needs, and path to FCF breakeven and target margin. 11) Moat and data advantage (purpose: assess defensibility) - Workflow depth and data lock-in. Network or ecosystem effects if present. - AI or analytics differentiation with measurable outcomes. - Integration footprint and practical switching costs. 12) Execution quality and organization (purpose: evaluate management and operating cadence) - Leadership track record and stability. Org design and succession. - Engineering velocity: release cadence, defect and incident rates where available. - Customer sentiment: CSAT, NPS, peer review sites, and community signals. 13) Risk inventory and mitigants (purpose: make downside explicit) - Macro, regulatory, competitive, operational, and concentration risks. - Payments, credit, or compliance risks if relevant. - Implementation complexity and time-to-value risks. - For each risk, propose leading indicators and mitigations. 14) Valuation framework (purpose: value with cross-checks) - Public comps table: growth, gross margin, operating margin, Rule of 40, EV to revenue, EV to gross profit. Normalize for any usage or payments reporting differences. - DCF with explicit drivers and sensitivity bands. - Cross-checks: cohort NPV math, S-curve adoption, unit economics to enterprise value sanity checks. 15) Scenarios, catalysts, and monitoring plan (purpose: set expectations and triggers) - 12 to 24 month bear, base, bull cases. Specify NRR, new logos, pricing or take rate, margins, SBC, and share count. Assign probabilities that sum to 100 percent. - Near-term catalysts: product launches, pricing changes, partnerships, market entries, M&A, regulatory outcomes. - Early warning indicators: churn spikes in small cohorts, backlog slippage, uptime incidents, pricing pushback. - What would change my mind: three positive and three negative triggers. Output format - Executive summary - Rating with price targets and time frames - Investment thesis and variant perception - Detailed sections 1 through 15 - Tables and charts embedded - Source list with links and dates - Appendix with model assumptions and calculations Quality bar - No generic claims. Back important statements with numbers and citations. - Label any speculation as Inference. - Be concise and structured. Prefer bullets and tables.

MitchCurry

>[TipSpiritual1628](https://www.reddit.com/user/TipSpiritual1628/) >Thoughts on MELI ? Good time to enter? I spent 3 minutes writing the below so I'm gonna comment it even though you deleted your comment lol I've owned for close to 8 years with adds all along the way. Looking at a reverse DCF with TTM data and inputting 25% FCF margin, you'd need \~22% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. They've grown revenue 36% over the LTM, 38% in FY24. For FCF margin, they actually hit 31% in 2023 and 34% in 2024. So change the reverse DCF input from 25% to 30% and you need 19.5% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. If you want to look at historical valuations, MELI is trading just below their 1Y and 3Y averages on P/S, P/GP, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA. ||Today|1Y|3Y| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**P/S**|4.7|5.3|5.3| |**P/GP**|9.1|10.0|9.8| |**P/FCF**|15.3|16.8|19.5| |**EV/EBITDA**|29.5|31.9|32.6| Would I add here? Probably not, but mainly because it's my largest position by cost basis and total value.

WealthVenue

you do realize there is no relationship between a stock price and FCF. What is your main metric for investing? Did you at Forward P/E? How much weight in your portfolio is that single stock taking? and what is the 52wk Hi on that stock? did you read the latest 10Q and 10K? did you extract significant information from them?

Itsyournamebackwards

There’s only one way with this stock: UP. Considering to add to my position as precious metals are going through the roof which should increase their collateral value and FCF

MitchCurry

University of Phoenix IPOing under AP VIII Queso Holdings, L.P. which will legally change its name to Phoenix Education Partners. Range is targeted at $31-$33/sh which would result in a market cap \~$1.2B. They're only providing two full years of data on their S-1 which says a lot to me about the trend of their recent business. If things were accelerating, they'd have provided 3 full year. Their most recent FY, ending Aug 2024, showed topline growth of 13.7% to $950MM. Operating income jumped 86% to $152MM and net income rose 75% to $115MM. FCF was up 56% to $141MM. For the 9 months ending May 2025, revenue growth was just 5.6%, operating income slowed to 17% growth, net income slowed to 12% growth, and FCF shrank by 72$ to just $35MM. That's about as deep as I'm going to dive into this IPO as I have no interest.

michael2334

You are looking at historical FCF to determine Microsoft deal margins? You are clueless

ElectricalGene6146

Have you looked at a nebius income statement? It’s very clear that they are not generating positive FCF from data centers. That’s the opposite of what happens when Microsoft builds new data centers. You are all getting emotional about nebius on a bull run without any iota of understanding.

Magikarp_to_Gyarados

>Tesla has made a mockery of the capital markets for the last 5 years. TSLA is a symptom, not a cause, of the capital markets. A lot of incredibly careless people shorted TSLA in the late 2010s. Something like 25-30% of TSLA shares were shorted, despite the company having a viable product roadmap and rapidly improving financial situation by 2019. *Anyone* could have read the SEC filings and monitored drone footage of how quickly Gigafactory Shanghai was being built. There was plenty of time to de-risk when it became clear that Tesla was likely to be added to the S&P500 in 2020. * The squeeze of late 2020/early 2021 was a direct consequence of failure to assess Tesla's underlying business. Today, the shoe is on the other foot. There are a lot of Musk cultists who deny the reality of Tesla's deteriorating finances and damage to Tesla's reputation from Mr. Musk's political activities. These people continue to buy TSLA shares and call options, which indirectly prop up Tesla's share price through gamma effects. * If Tesla fails to deliver on FSD and robots, I believe TSLA will **lose more than 85%** of its current market cap. >nor will they deliver the tech and products they claim to deliver That is a dangerous assumption to make. While it is *currently* true that FSD isn't good enough for a truly autonomous robotaxi service and that Tesla bots aren't monetizable, that may not be true in the future. Tesla still generates just enough cash flow to fund its CapEx requirements (FCF was just 146 million in Q2 '25, but the reality is that the underlying business can still support efforts to implement the future product roadmap). * You have no way of knowing whether Tesla's engineers will succeed or not on future products like FSD and Bots. * Tesla's cultist shareholders have no way of knowing either. Many participants in the capital markets are (1) Unable to face facts or are too lazy (2) Incompetent at managing risk or unable to admit that they might guess wrong.

hakim37

I don't think extrapolating historical FCF into future returns works for Google at the moment as there's so much underlying change to their past business model. You're effectively isolating search revenue which although I expect to continue I don't think it will be their primary growth engine for the next 10 years. Google cloud has only recently become profitable and now they have $100B in backlog to fill over the next two years which should more than double cloud revenue and likely push margins higher. Their AI offerings will undoubtedly start generating revenue in this timeline but it's impossible to determine the effects from past data. Over the next 10 years I would expect at least one of their long shots to pay off whether that be Waymo, Isomorphics or quantum. I prefer deep dives into their individual segments. But even eyeballing the company shows that search and YouTube alone justifies its current price. Also, just a nit, but no one ever discounts Google's massive cash and equities position of $300B to their current market cap. Which makes a noticeable difference, especially when compared to Apple, for example.

HenryObj

UPS is cheap because earnings power and dividend coverage are deteriorating. Low P/E on a declining E, recent negative FCF versus a large dividend, and volume-density loss not yet re-optimized. > 👉 cheap, not undervalued, until FCF covers the dividend and operating margins stabilize above 10 percent.

ElectricalGene6146

Tesla has made a mockery of the capital markets for the last 5 years. Eventually the market is a weighing scale for FCF which they have proven they will never deliver (nor will they deliver the tech and products they claim to deliver)

Gandalftron

Wrong. Their dramatic ascent as been due to their massive private sector growth.  Their government contracts are simply a backstop for FCF.