FCF

yearz

This thread shows a lot of ignorance about what this announcement actually means, for Ramaco in particular and USA REE production in general. *About rare earths* - It is true rare earths are not “rare” the way lithium is not rare. What is “rare” is finding REEs in concentrations that are economically feasible to extract. Even “high” concentrations of rare earths are in the hundreds of ppm - There are good reasons why REE refinement has largely disappeared from Western countries: the refinement process is generally TERRIBLE for the environment. A major reason for this is that most REE are found in hard rock that is expensive and difficult to break apart and accompanies radioactive elements like uranium, which means radioactive byproducts of the refining process. - China dominates refinement of rare earths largely because they are perfectly willing to accept the environmental damage in exchange for industry dominance. [The NYT had a piece on this topic this week.](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/business/china-rare-earth-environment.html) *Ramaco’s REE project* - This announcement has nothing to do with a “discovery.” [The discovery was made almost a decade ago by the US Department of Energy,](https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/the-2-million-coal-mine-that-might-hold-a-37-billion-treasure-181dbdcf?st=wEaYRq&reflink=article_copyURL_share) it was a coincidence that Ramaco owned the land in the scope of the discovery. What is new is that the results of a multi-year economic feasibility study have come back with highly positive implications for this mine. Mining operations are commencing now, pilot production is expected to be finished this year with large scale production starting in 2027. This is not a pipe dream, this is happening. - Ramaco originally intended to mine metallurgical coal from the site. The site is fully permitted for mining operations and coal mining was slated to restart there this year, regardless of rare earths. Ramaco owns even more adjacent land - **What sets this mine apart is that the REEs at the Ramaco Brook Mine are found in soft sedimentary rock with no radioactivity**. Put simply, this means the REEs at this mine are far easier and cleaner to extract than a “traditional” REE mine, a major factor in this mine being of particular economic viability. - A comprehensive and well funded engineering study has been released to show that even under conservative estimates, [this mine will have a high IRR of 33% and will be generating annual FCF of about $139 million per year, from a mine owned by](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Ramaco-PEA-Report-Jul-2025.pdf)a company with a current market cap of $844 million for which, until now, REEs were simply a side hustle - The US government is hugely incentivized for this mine to be productive. In addition to the aforementioned assistance from the Department of Energy, [Wyoming gave Ramaco a $6.1 million grant to develop the mine](https://www.mining.com/ramaco-resources-wyoming-rare-earth-project-gets-6-1m-grant/) and the mine will benefit substantially from tax credits provisioned by the Inflation Reduction Act. In addition to that, [US secretary of energy Chris Wright is personally attending the ribbon cutting](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wyomings-first-coal-mine-decades-101237705.html) of the mine, and former US Senator Joe Manchin sits on the Ramaco board of directors. The US Department of Defense just made a major investment in another REE producer and is closely monitoring developments at the Ramaco mine. It seems obvious that all possible measures will be taken to smooth the regulatory process for this mine to succeed.

yearz

This thread shows a lot of ignorance about what this announcement actually means, for Ramaco in particular and USA REE production in general. *About rare earths* - It is true rare earths are not “rare” the way lithium is not rare. What is “rare” is finding REEs in concentrations that are economically feasible to extract. Even “high” concentrations of rare earths are in the hundreds of ppm - There are good reasons why REE refinement has largely disappeared from Western countries: the refinement process is generally TERRIBLE for the environment. A major reason for this is that most REE are found in hard rock that is expensive and difficult to break apart and accompanies radioactive elements like uranium, which means radioactive byproducts of the refining process. - China dominates refinement of rare earths largely because they are perfectly willing to accept the environmental damage in exchange for industry dominance. [The NYT had a piece on this topic this week.](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/business/china-rare-earth-environment.html) *Ramaco’s REE project* - This announcement has nothing to do with a “discovery.” [The discovery was made almost a decade ago by the US Department of Energy,](https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/the-2-million-coal-mine-that-might-hold-a-37-billion-treasure-181dbdcf?st=wEaYRq&reflink=article_copyURL_share) it was a coincidence that Ramaco owned the land in the scope of the discovery - Ramaco originally intended to mine metallurgical coal from the site. The site is fully permitted for mining operations and coal mining was slated to restart there this year, regardless of rare earths. Ramaco owns even more adjacent land - **What sets this mine apart is that the REEs at the Ramaco Brook Mine are found in soft sedimentary rock with no radioactivity**. Put simply, this means the REEs at this mine are far easier and cleaner to extract than a “traditional” REE mine, a major factor in this mine being of particular economic viability. - A comprehensive and well funded engineering study has been released to show that even under conservative estimates, [this mine will have a high IRR of 33% and will be generating annual FCF of about $139 million per year, from a mine owned by](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Ramaco-PEA-Report-Jul-2025.pdf)a company with a current market cap of $844 million for which, until now, REEs were simply a side hustle - The US government is hugely incentivized for this mine to be productive. In addition to the aforementioned assistance from the Department of Energy, [Wyoming gave Ramaco a $6.1 million grant to develop the mine](https://www.mining.com/ramaco-resources-wyoming-rare-earth-project-gets-6-1m-grant/) and the mine will benefit substantially from tax credits provisioned by the Inflation Reduction Act. In addition to that, [US secretary of energy Chris Wright is personally attending the ribbon cutting](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wyomings-first-coal-mine-decades-101237705.html) of the mine, and former US Senator Joe Manchin sits on the Ramaco board of directors. The US Department of Defense just made a major investment in another REE producer and is closely monitoring developments at the Ramaco mine. It seems obvious that all possible measures will be taken to smooth the regulatory process for this mine to succeed.

yearz

This thread shows a lot of ignorance about what this announcement actually means, for Ramaco in particular and USA REE production in general. *About rare earths* - It is true rare earths are not “rare” the way lithium isn’t rare. What is “rare” is finding REEs in concentrations that are economically feasible to extract. Even “high” concentrations of rare earths are in the hundreds of ppm - There are good reasons why REE refinement has largely disappeared from Western countries: the process is usually TERRIBLE for the environment. A major reason for this is that most REE are found in hard rocks that are expensive and difficult to break apart and accompany radioactive elements like uranium, which means radioactive byproducts of the refining process. -China dominates refinement of rare earths largely because they are perfectly willing to accept the environmental damage in exchange for industry dominance. [The NYT had a piece on this topic this week.](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/business/china-rare-earth-environment.html) *Ramaco’s REE project* -This announcement has nothing to do with a “discovery.” [The discovery was made almost a decade ago by the US Department of Energy,](https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/the-2-million-coal-mine-that-might-hold-a-37-billion-treasure-181dbdcf?st=wEaYRq&reflink=article_copyURL_share) it was a coincidence that Ramaco owned the land in the scope of the discovery -Ramaco originally intended to mine metallurgical coal from the site. The site is fully permitted for mining operations and coal mining was slated to restart there this year, regardless of rare earths. Ramaco owns even more adjacent land - What sets this mine apart is that the REEs at the Ramaco Brook Mine are found in soft sedimentary rock with no radioactivity. Put simply, this means the REEs are far easier and cleaner to extract than a “traditional” REE mine and are a major factor in this mine being of particular economic viability. - A comprehensive and well funded engineering study has been released to show that even under conservative estimates, [this mine will have a high IRR of 33% and will be generating annual FCF of about $139 million per year, from a mine owned by](https://ramacoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Ramaco-PEA-Report-Jul-2025.pdf)a company with a current market cap of $844 million -The US government is hugely incentivized for this mine to be productive. In addition to the aforementioned assistance from the Department of Energy, [Wyoming gave Ramaco a $6.1 million grant to develop the mine](https://www.mining.com/ramaco-resources-wyoming-rare-earth-project-gets-6-1m-grant/) and the mine will benefit substantially from tax credits provisioned by the Inflation Reduction Act. In addition to that, [US secretary of energy Chris Wright is personally attending the ribbon cutting](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wyomings-first-coal-mine-decades-101237705.html) of the mine, and former US Senator Joe Manchin sits on the Ramaco board of directors. The US Department of Defense just made a major investment in another REE producer and is closely monitoring developments at the Ramaco mine. It seems obvious that all possible measures will be taken to smooth the regulatory process for this mine to succeed.

Odd_Entrepreneur2815

Yes but it’s almost impossible to go bankrupt while being profitable and cash flowing. The ones you listed had 7-10+ years of major losses a year with eventual bankruptcy at the end. KSS has a bad Q1 generally but will still be profitable in a pretty bad down cycle. $1.256B EBITDA, $565M FCF, $155M cash and $1B free on LoC, and the list goes on. When I do a deep value investment like this I write it up as all assets - all liabilities to see where it shakes out. KSS BV is pretty accurate around $35 on low end and I’d argue able to get $70+ if interest rate environments become more favorable which I would say is coming

PrecisionOutdoors

its a pretty long list but I'd start at analyzing balance sheet: \-BV of $34.25 is based predominantly on owned real estate that they bought on average over 20+ years ago with \~50% depreciated off the books. Their CRE portfolio is worth $5B-$10B+. Most likely alot more since real estate has gone up dramatically over the last 20-30 years and they purchased their holdings for $11B. If you just marked at past purchase price then KSS is worth at least $11B.... \-Debt is overstated: due to GAAP, leases have to be counted as debt. In their 10K they state \~$6.6B of future lease obligations are from options to extend future leases that they are reasonably certain to continue leasing. IF they said they weren't planning to renew then you would see $6.6B in liabilities disappear overnight... I say current assets/liabilities wash so KSS real debt is \~$2B currently \-KSS is a real estate company with a cyclical, out of favor retail business. Due to this, they're getting valued as a retailer only and ignoring owned assets. EBITDA via Q1 last report is $1.256B! They're literally selling at 0.8x EBITDA. In the PE world they would be valued 4x-6x due to their out of favor nature. \-fun fact: KSS spends over $800M a year on marketing... that 80% of market cap.... \-TTM FCF is $565M, its trading at 1.85x P:FCF I can go on but believe I hit the most important. Ask questions if you want more detail

_hiddenscout

Exactly. That's one of the things I've shifted towards, is watching the margins more. Like LMB taught me that. Watching the business shift and revenue still slow down, but FCF basically explode. Then you add in stuff like revenue growth back, it's huge. IBEX is another great example and another winner that did the same thing for me.

_hiddenscout

Yeah, not an expert, but off shore seems like a place that is growing, part of why I bought FTI. Even with them, they are a one of those companies improving eps and margins with less revenue, with something that I think wall street overlooks. When you watch the top and bottom of growth, but miss a company generating more FCF with less revenue, you're finding gold.

Confident-Ask-2043

In order 1 - Earning date pushout 2 - debt service cost higher than FCF 3 - dividend payout higher than earnings for 2 consequent quarters 4 - stock buy back ,when there is net debt.

FarrisAT

Yes they announced $68bn of CapEx last quarter They have to find it with debt since FCF is ~$40bn

FarrisAT

I believe investors broadly undervalue the financial leverage of Big Tech. Amazon is the best example of this financial engineering capability. Amazon net margin is ~5%. Decent for a retailer but not great for big tech. Why is it worth $2 trillion? The answer is because Amazon invests $100bn annually into CapEx. Datacenters, warehouses, machines, automation, and then corporate investments. On one hand, Amazon needs to invest to continue competing with Walmart and CostCo and other Big Tech datacenters. On the other hand, Amazon has boosted CapEx from $50bn in 2021 to $100bn in 2025, despite only 30% revenue growth during that time. Does that mean the investment is generating less return? No. It’s investment today for domination for decades to come. If Amazon runs into a slowdown in Retail Demand or AI Cloud Demand, then Amazon can cut CapEx down to a lower optimal level more aligned with historical norm as a share of total revenue. Assuming they returned to 2021 levels in 2026, that would immediately add $40bn+ to FCF and EPS, making the company trade at 15x FWD PE.

_hiddenscout

I think yes and no. Part of why I lean no, is that there are some real companies right now seeing wins because of AI. Stuff like EXLS, IBEX, PEGA are a few names that are seeing wins because of AI. Also, the companies spending on Capex have the FCF in order to support it. The thing is, data centers are integral to the internet and almost every company is going to the cloud, with most taking a hybrid approach. I don't think the data center or those providing will be real winners in the end, but rather, companies that use AI will see some gains in productivity as well as EPS with better magins. On the flipside, I think there is still a lot of junk that hasn't gone public yet that the VCs are backing, which are basically LLM wrappers. To me, that is where the biggest bubble is going to be with AI. We see VC's backing companies that are basically wrappers of LLMs. Like a good example is stuff like Cursor: They just go a valuation of like 9.9B, while it's a fork of VScode [https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/05/cursors-anysphere-nabs-9-9b-valuation-soars-past-500m-arr/](https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/05/cursors-anysphere-nabs-9-9b-valuation-soars-past-500m-arr/) That to me is where the biggest part of the AI Bubble is, the VC investing.

elgrandorado

People REALLY underestimate Uber's demand generation moat. I think some honestly believe Uber have their FCF skyrocketing because of rainbows and sunshine. As a Google investor, Waymo is purely optionality. Google WILL find a way as they always do to bring down the cost of AV tech, and their main strength will be in selling the tech to other car manufacturers. I think Uber and Waymo will work hand in hand, as opposed to being rivals in any meaningful way. Tesla seems to be the odd one out with outdated technology to it's Chinese rivals, hopes and dreams on robotics which are.... also behind Chinese rivals, and energy business under threat (I believe) from the BBB.

FromZeroToLegend

Never understoood why wsb gets so caught up on PE, there’s P/S, P/FCF and that also has to get adjusted by YoY growth. How much do you think a company that sells $1T but only makes $100M should be worth? 25 P/E aka $2.5B? Is that really your reasoning?

CultureForsaken3762

TSLA: • $7,500 ends after September 30. • Regulatory credits end tomorrow. BBB cancels both. TSLA will now likely be negative FCF by year end. The market is asleep on this.

jellybellysrock

> PTHS I kind have a check list that I use before I jump in and this is what I came up with. Absolutely nothing about this entertains me at this time. JMO Checklist: Wide Margin of Safety (Low EV/Revenue): ❌ Information on Enterprise Value to Revenue (EV/Revenue) specifically for PTHS is not available. This criterion cannot be assessed. Strong Growth & Secular Industry: ✔️ PTHS operates in the biopharmaceutical industry and focuses on commercializing innovative therapeutics. Its lead product is a novel treatment for molluscum contagiosum. The precision medicine market, which the company operates in, is expected to experience strong growth. Operating Leverage & Improving Profitability: ❌ Information on PTHS's operating leverage and profitability trends is unavailable. Positive & Growing Free Cash Flow (FCF): ❌ Information on PTHS's free cash flow is unavailable. Positive Net Cash Position: ❌ As of July 2, 2025, PTHS had $131,317 in cash and $2.50 million in debt, resulting in a negative net cash position of -$2.37 million. Skin in the Game (Founder-Led & High Insider Ownership): ❌ While some information about the leadership team is available (e.g., Scott Plesha as CEO), the search results do not explicitly state if PTHS is founder-led or provide detailed information on insider ownership percentage. Strong Execution: ✔️ PTHS has completed a merger and secured a significant private placement to support its key product launch. Competitive Moats: ❓ The search results indicate PTHS's lead product, ZELSUVMI™, is the first and only FDA-approved at-home topical treatment for molluscum contagiosum, which may represent a competitive advantage. However, detailed analysis of its competitive moat is limited. Opportunities: Growing Market: The precision medicine market is expanding, offering potential for PTHS's products. Novel Product: ZELSUVMI™ offers a convenient, at-home treatment option, which could drive market adoption. Pipeline Expansion: PTHS plans to evaluate additional development programs, which could expand its product offerings. Risks: Negative Net Cash Position: The company has a negative net cash position, which may indicate a reliance on external funding. Market Acceptance: Successful adoption of ZELSUVMI™ is crucial for PTHS's financial performance. Clinical and Regulatory Risks: There's no guarantee that PTHS or its partners will successfully advance their pipeline or receive regulatory approval for future products. Strengths: FDA Approval: ZELSUVMI™ has received FDA approval and novel drug designation. Market Focus: PTHS targets the growing molluscum contagiosum market, which affects a large number of people. Areas to Monitor: Financial Performance: Monitoring revenue from ZELSUVMI™ and overall profitability is critical. Cash Flow: The company's ability to generate positive free cash flow is essential for long-term sustainability. Competitive Landscape: Stay updated on emerging treatments or competition within the molluscum contagiosum market. Final Analysis: Pelthos Therapeutics (PTHS) is a biopharmaceutical company that recently completed a merger and secured funding to launch its lead product, ZELSUVMI™, a novel treatment for molluscum contagiosum. The company operates in the promising precision medicine sector and benefits from a potentially strong competitive advantage with its unique at-home treatment option. However, potential investors should be aware of the company's negative net cash position and the risks associated with market acceptance and pipeline development. Monitoring PTHS's financial performance and cash flow generation will be important for assessing its long-term prospects. Information regarding insider ownership and operating leverage remains limited based on the provided results.

MitchCurry

I'd be cautious putting weight into results vs. expectations unless it's management expectations you're comparing against. Analyst expectations, in my opinion, are mostly useless. Why do we punish/reward the company because analysts made a bad guess on what the companies short-term results would be? I know nothing about MAMA's underlying business but their current valuation seems high. On a 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y chart, every major valuation is trading above their historical average (P/S, P/GP, P/FCF, P/E, EV/EBITDA, etc.). Maybe the valuation expansion is justified or it's possible valuation compression is overdue after a 400%+ run over the past 5 years.

senrim

Their revenue growth is bought out by massive expense jump, barely any EPS and FCF with diluting shareholders. They are growth company valued as growth company with huge catalyst that will massively slow down their Revenue growth which is all they can offer. THey might not rellied on GLP drugs, but they sure did in the future. You are exctited i get it, but i would be really cautious. Not all stories ends up like Tesla or Palantir.

Exotic-Scarcity-3671

Looks like you used the Gordon growth model for TV calculations, right? A bit debatable approach nowadays. Have you tried to tweak and see what EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF would give you under different scenarios? Building a simple sensitivity table on costof capital + exit multiples would make more sense, I guess

No-Sympathy3276

This is what is happening I believe. The post 2008 equity bubble has been an ATM for a grifters. In this case literally hundreds of billions of equity has been raised and paid to an insider. Note hundreds of billions of FCF has not been generated and increasingly looking like, it never will. With that much firepower, the insider can burn tens of billions buying call options behind the scenes. On days like today, that is how you can manipulate the SP and story and promotion alive. Avoid it long or short.

Dumb_Nuts

They’re growing at 40%+. That’s 3-4 years and they have FCF margins north of 30% already. Revenue is sub $1B so plenty of room for growth still

i_lead_the_swarm

You're right — it's a strange time for Alphabet. On one hand, they’re still a cash flow powerhouse (\~$70B FCF TTM), with Search and YouTube still monetizing well. But for the first time, real structural risks are converging: regulatory pressure, and potential platform disruption (e.g., Apple exploring Perplexity). The AI narrative hurts them more than it should — Gemini is broadly deployed across products, but market perception favors competitors. If search clicks or CPC show weakness this quarter, it’ll spook institutions, even if overall revenue holds. At the same time, people overlook how much optionality Alphabet has — robotaxis (Waymo), quantum compute, and even fusion. These aren’t immediate cash flows, but they anchor a long-term innovation story. This quarter won’t just be about numbers — it’s about whether the market still believes in the long-term narrative.

CanYouPleaseChill

It's definitely a meme stock. It's up 171% since the April lows two months ago and now has a P/FCF ratio over 100. Market Cap: 82.6B FCF - SBC: 0.74B P / (FCF - SBC): 111

FarrisAT

Never tell me the market is efficient on singular companies when Meta today has a P/FCF literally 9x higher than just 30 months ago.

_hiddenscout

People don't realize, but RYCEY is more of an aerospace and defense company, than a car company. Here's their last quarter results that shows the full year: [https://www.rolls-royce.com/\~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/investors/results/2024-full-year-results/rr-plc-holdings-2024-full-year-results-presentation.pdf](https://www.rolls-royce.com/~/media/Files/R/Rolls-Royce/documents/investors/results/2024-full-year-results/rr-plc-holdings-2024-full-year-results-presentation.pdf) They are seeing a lot of growth and improvement in FCF and margins in Power systems, Jet Engines, and Defense. If you look at their stuff from a quarterly view: [https://quickfs.net/company/RYCEY:US](https://quickfs.net/company/RYCEY:US) Operating Margins went from like 7.8% in Sept 2022 to up to like 11.6% last quarter. Seems like it has turned things around. A lot of names in the aerospace area have been killing it for a while. There was a big backlog and a lot of demand since the pandemic.

FarrisAT

Meta P/FCF is 41 today On October 7th 2022, it was 6.

Main-Perception-3332

Look at FCF analysis over the next 3 years with analysts projecting 30%+ annual EPS growth around the release of MI350 and MI400 AI GPUs.

CanYouPleaseChill

I wouldn't take anything Benioff says seriously. There's no way in hell AI is doing 30-50% of the work at Salesforce. The wide range makes it obvious these numbers were pulled out of a hat. Big Tech is now becoming as capital intensive as shale oil. If FCF doesn't meaningfully increase soon, investors will start asking questions? I predict that Big Tech will cut AI-related capex significantly within the next few years as it becomes obvious the return just isn't there.

FishMD1

FCF with 8% is pretty weak

_hiddenscout

Not OP, but I've been talking about RKLB in the daily for years. I mainly post there than any of the threads. For me, I just know that there is an actual business for the small satellite market. Look how much is actually being launched now: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yearly-number-of-objects-launched-into-outer-space) On top of that, RKLB CEO is fantastic. His back story of how he got in the industry is great. As a company, they made some great moves over the last few years, acquiring companies to increase margins and come a one stop shop for people looking to launch. They have a great success rate and two launch pads, one in NZ and in Virginia. The growth has been solid. Company still isn't generating FCF yet, but the next move is going to be getting their newest rocket out there, Neutron. Their electron rocket is pretty small and if you haven't watched a launch, I would suggest it. They are pretty cool. Once Neutron is developed, they should be able to get larger payloads as well as bid on more contracts. They are also winning government contracts recently too. They've launched a few small sat's for NASA as well they have beefed up their hypersonic missile testing. To me, they are the perfect company to speculate on and not a ton of others like them in the market right now.

thelastsubject123

This is definitely an entertaining post for sure. Is their balance sheet upside down? Yes. Are they insolvent? Absolutely not Most of their debt has a lower rate than the prime, let alone prime + 1/2 which is the going rate for BBB+ 4b matures in 5-10 yrs with a rate of 4% Another 4b matures in 15-25 years, again with a rate of 4% Their FCF can easily pay off their LT debt in 3 years but why would they when the prime rate exceeds their debt rate? As the saying goes, bears sound smart. Bulls make money. I’m not bullish on sbux as I think it’s a stagnant business but insolvency is not realistic

Maleficent_Ad_3070

Shell has a decent FCF

Impossible-Try1096

6% is only market cap and does not take into account underlying fundamentals (as if they really mean anything). NVDA: Valuation Ratios The trailing PE ratio is 49.77 and the forward PE ratio is 31.85. NVIDIA's PEG ratio is 1.10. PE Ratio 49.77 Forward PE 31.85 PS Ratio 25.47 Forward PS 17.24 PB Ratio 44.89 P/TBV Ratio 48.54 P/FCF Ratio 52.25 P/OCF Ratio 49.44 PEG Ratio 1.10 Net Cash Per Share $1.78 Book Value Per Share 3.44 AMD: Valuation Ratios The trailing PE ratio is 104.70 and the forward PE ratio is 35.41. AMD's PEG ratio is 1.36. PE Ratio 104.70 Forward PE 35.41 PS Ratio 8.38 Forward PS 7.09 PB Ratio 4.00 P/TBV Ratio 15.84 P/FCF Ratio 84.46 P/OCF Ratio 67.22 PEG Ratio 1.36 Net Cash Per Share $1.59 Book Value Per Share 35.82

Party_Shoe104

ACHR generates ZERO in revenue. If you want to forget about a stock for 3 years, then it should be one that generates revenue. It should have tons of cash on their cash flow statement, can pay off their debt if they wanted, and has positive FCF at the end of every quarter. That cash and free cash flow should be growing every quarter too.

MutaliskGluon

They are almost certaintly declaring revenues too soon and placing things on AR before they should. The way their AR AP and FCF all relate is really weird and looks like some early revenue reconciliation that is a red flag. Kinda ponzi like in a way, but since they are still growing fast nothing is happening, but you can tell by the GM% QoQ declining pretty rapidly that its gonna end soon. Theres also EXTREMELY shady stuff going on with CRWV and other hyperscalars with some revenue round tripping and fraudulent accounting practices on the depreciation of the GPUs. But SEC essentually doesnt exist now, so it will likely never become obvious until well after funds dump "for no reason" and retail wonders why the stock is selling off "for no reason". NVDA next ER is gonna have an INSANE headline number as the M2M their CRWV gains and show a stupid high profit number that will look much worse once stripping out that 1 time non operational gain. Call me a clown all you want, whatever. Im not a clown. Im a bear. Rawr

FarrisAT

Let’s compare October 2022 Meta: Meta revenue flat YoY Meta EPS down 15% Meta FCF flat YoY 20 P/E and 4 P/FCF Today Google: Google revenue 12.8% YoY Google EPS 35% YoY Google FCF 10% YoY 17 P/E and 6 P/FCF

DrElkSnout

It's why i'm heavily invested into DVN. FCF continues down to $40-45 a barrel WTI. Anything over $70 and dividends and buybacks historically increase.

SoftBreezeWanderer

You're making a super speculative played based on technical analysis when this company is 99% a fundamentals play. Were any new partnerships announced? From what I understand asts is still only in prerevenue phase only stil testing 5 satellites. Meanwhile starlink has partnerships with T-Mobile. Even with projected 30b sales in 2030 the FCF per share is only $24 per Scotia's analysis. Idk this sounds like bull cope. I hope this isn't a large portion of your portfolio lol

_hiddenscout

Hahha totally. Don't get me wrong, I don't always call out ones that hit, but I feel like I tend to get more winners than losers. Actually might be some on the recent pullback. I think TATT is also another interesting name that basically was crushed because of their ER. They had negative FCF, but it was mainly to invest back into inventory to get around any supply chain issues.

Desmater

GOOGL is undervalued. Waymo is going to be a huge FCF machine in a couple years.

The-zKR0N0S

Is a 4.7% FCF yield attractive in this competitive of an industry?

_hiddenscout

You can also look at PEG. So companies can actually have a decline in revenue growth but also still increase margins, which means they can actually generate more FCF with less revenue. Plus you can add in things like stock buybacks. Like a name I own, LMB went through that process: [https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US](https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US) If you look at the quarterly numbers, they had decline in revenues since like Dec 2023 to Sept 2024. However, they grew EPS during that same time period because they increased their margins. Also during that time period of revenue decline, because the company was making more money, they were able to increase ROIC as well.

LilRobloz

New IPO, Ticker SLDE, FCF 550M at 2.8B mk cap, 32% OP margin,  AI-first insurer from Florida !!

CultureForsaken3762

TSLA would have been negative FCF for years without sales of regulatory credits. I know way more about TSLA than you do. You’re just an ignorant guy in a cult. Good day.

Working-Math-9610

**BLDR** seems good. FCF, PE and all that checks out. When rates drop, should be the #1 beneficiary. Thoughts?

Dealer_Existing

They are burning through cash like a motherfcker, so yeah they need additional capital. Is it good for the stock? Don't think so based on the revenue that is stagnant and the Operating expenses increasing. They went from 800M in 2022 to 300M cash flow with FCF even going from 600M to -120M

antoine1246

Valuation models include the FCF model, RIM and AEG. None include marketing costs, so your assumption makes no sense whatsoever. Maybe study finance before saying stupid things

Full-Atmosphere-4818

True, however the real thing to look at is FCF. Compared to the SP500, it is a much lower ratio. Most companies with "earnings" have much lower FCF.

_hiddenscout

will take a look! yeah just one of those names that popped up the other day and looking into. Kind of a quiet IPO. Another Israeli company as well, so kind of interesting they are going public with already generating FCF.

OGinkki

I look at some combination of OCF, assets, debt, product, inside and institutional ownership, revenue growth, FCF margin, EBITDA, P/B. With penny stocks you never really know so my final decision is based on the product, management, and industry prospects.

RandomC6

He is actually right. NVDA has a lower PE ratio, lower Fwd PE Ratio, higher Gross Margin, higher FCF margin, better PEG ratio. Even advanced rating models favor NVDA. I own none of them, so I am not pushing anything.

_hiddenscout

I think these are much better trading instruments than long term holds. They are still way aways from actually building or generating revenue/profit. I think there are pretty plays out there if you do want hold something long term. It's not as cheap anymore, but something like $CW will get you defense exposure as well as a nuclear play. They sale things to power generating plants, generating real FCF. $CDRE just acquired some nuclear testing equipment companies to expand their portfolio. I like the sector long term, but there's a lot of stuff that is pure speculative that has crazy gains. Nothing wrong with that per say, just need to make sure you get out before you are the one holding any bags.

_hiddenscout

CLS is the better Canadian AI play. For one, the marketcap for this stock is a rule breaker at like 89M. If you want to try to play a momentum name, it's not the worst, but if you want to actually invest in something that actually generate FCF and would be a better long term hold, CLS is the name.

Spiritual-Natural41

I like $PTEN, high volatility, good fundamentals, undervalued, max chart shows correlation between large moves and oil prices. PTEN provides drilling services, strong FCF, high shareholders equity etc. Looks like a solid play for short term swings and long term returns.

_hiddenscout

I've suggest a few micro cap defense names that have been crushing it. I get the notion that a ton of them can be find of a scam, but some names actually generate FCF and offer a dividend while still being like a sub 200M market cap.

_hiddenscout

They are pretty cool, just really expensive for you are getting. Personally, I don't really like buying companies that don't generate FCF. Not the worst name to speculate on,

LilRobloz

Negative FCF, Negative margin, etc. not really my type of stock

ONEGUY2002

That means hood should go lower. Their FCF model depends on higher interest rates

FarrisAT

Zuck back to 2021 Zuck Get ready for FCF to get spent.

_hiddenscout

Makes sense. For me, the problem is I see like the same 60 companies every day I screen lol. That's why I call it the base one. I'll make tweaks from time to time just to find new companies to research. Like keep the PEG under 2, but what if I lowered the revenue growth to like 5% and then upped the EPS to like 15%. Now i'm looking at companies that might not be fast growers, but they are probably increasing their margins, which means they are making more FCF off less money. Or they are buying back a bunch of stocks, but it's another way to look for great businesses. Like I found LMB a long time ago, one of the best performing stocks I've ever bought. If you look at their growth numbers, especially per quarter: [https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US](https://quickfs.net/company/LMB:US) It's not the great revenue growth story, but look at the EPS growth and their gross margins, both are growing really nicely. This is because LMB shifted their business model like a year or two ago. They do HVAC and in the past they would do one time installs. They switched over to a model where they work with companies to do maintance and then help them lower power bills. That type of business is higher margin. So since they make more money, notice the growth of the ROIC as well. I enjoy researching companies, so that's why I just like to think of the screener as a filter and then do the research from there.

KnowledgeNate

I'm in LEAPs. Total mispricing right now. Every single LULU customer I've talked too loves this brand and doesn't care about finance people and quarterly earnings. Comp sales down 1% last quarter because all anybody heard about for 3 months was tariff this, tariff that, tariffs are going to end the economy, don't spend a dime and hunker down. So yeah, you might not buy expensive clothing if you're spooked like that. 6/20 might be a little tight. Q2 was guided downwards but a profitable quarter would not surprise me at all. Guidance unchanged for the full fiscal year. Buybacks in full effect with +$400MM last quarter on pace for something like +$1.6 billion. I'm estimating figures. Plenty of FCF. Plenty of cash on balance sheet ($1.3B) and no debt. Growing massively in China. Lululemon subreddit constantly filled with hourly posts of chicks posting look how cute this is. Went to shop there and no less than 3 sales girl swarmed me asking how they could help (and I'm not cute). Alo is equivalent to H&M. Vuori is for dudes and ugly for chicks. Don't believe the lies about quality going down on LULU. If you shop at target for yoga clothes, then you're not the LULU customer. Management team dealt with COVID supply chain pivot and they can work cost structures and pricing as needed as necessity is the mother of invention. Not afraid to mention tariff impact on earnings call. This brand is fully in tact and the reports of its death have been greatly exaggerated.

SuperSultan

- shrinking revenue - political breakup and fistfight between Elmo and Donnie - The “Big Beautiful Bill” removes the EV tax credit which allowed Tesla to become huge in the first place (this is the real reason for the political split). Tesla had life on easy mode because people would receive government money for buying their cars! - brutal competition from Chinese EVs like BYD (cheaper prices, better build quality, better technology) and high tariffs on Chinese EVs are proof of that - enormous market cap relative to earnings and FCF Yeah this is not a value play. You can speculate and probably still make money but I would avoid it.

ScanianGoose

GME price action is looking bullish heading into earnings! Four straight quarters positive earnings and FCF positive for 8 in a row is now on tap. Gotta be feeling great about the company turnaround completion of stage one, and the 0% interest rate convertible bonds will ignite stage two boosters. Project Rocket is here. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

ScanianGoose

GME price action is looking bullish heading into earnings! Four straight quarters positive earnings and FCF positive for 8 in a row is now on tap. Gotta be feeling great about the company turnaround completion of stage one, and the 0% interest rate convertible bonds will ignite stage two boosters. Project Rocket is here. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

CompanyCharts

Yes. Thats why the largest stock has Revenue, Net Income, FCF, and book value go up and to the right. https://preview.redd.it/hm198pjq5v5f1.png?width=1398&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2905f6b3e35650c029d8c770e831dc1c42b0332

Ask3647

Buy the precious metal miners. They’re lagging behind. Great FCF. Don’t get greedy.

akpaul89

But wouldn't that mean future FCF would be higher and that should be reflected in the stock price?

Candlelight_Fant4sia

Most regarded post I've seen in a while. Amazon's stock price is where it is because everything they make goes into CAPEX, and FCF isn't going anywhere until they stop doing that.

Nevertoldbadstory

$BABA takes the lead with an approximate 3-year FCF CAGR of around 32% at approximately 8x EV/EBITDA.

AmbitiousSkirt2

Yes I’m not just basing past performance I also judge future cash flow as well. FCF is king. I make sure to check every box and then u invest based on my conviction and plan to hold for several years at the least until my investment thesis changes or the company is extremely overvalued. That’s all you can do. But if you put in the time and effort to allocating a percentage of your portfolio to stocks that you have done your research and due diligence on there’s a good chance you will have at least some years you beat market returns

JojoChurro

“The New growth is not here” is a bit misleading in that it’s a bit missing perspective. Amazon is not just big, it’s dominant. Software engineers prefer AWS. Businesses prefer AWS. This is not as zero sum as this comment implies. All of these are great investments but Amazon is the most misunderstood— therefore- in my opinion has the largest margin of safety. The capex is exemplified more for Amazon than any other big tech company. This is a direct eat from FCF. This hose can be turned on, and when it does the pocket book will flood

dimethylhyperspace

I don't think it's ever going back to forty, but we'll see. The FCF is just too good

ptw_tech

You mean premier growth stock over the last four-and-a-half decades. December 12, 1980, IPO price was $22.00 per share. Since then, the stock has split five times, making the split-adjusted IPO price $0.10 per share. Apple currently holds the highest free cash flow (FCF) value among U.S. companies at $98.49 billion. Services have been the stellar growth divisions, doubling over the last five years to $26B in Q1 ‘25, so $100B Services revenue annually and growing, with 70% profit margins! Seems like pretty decent growth to me. Their current “weaknesses” driving the share price down are an accelerant to execute on their currently authorized $110B buyback program (the largest in US corporate history) adding value to its shareholders with no tax implications. It’s my opinion that AAPL is the OG buy-it-for-life stock.

raytoei

Yes! FCF/Sales TTM-> 14.96% 14.96% 17.09% 4.04% 15.90% 13.04% 9.71% 15.72% 12.51% 10.05% 7.53% <-2016 this is very high were on average it is <5% for other companies

_hiddenscout

I guess. I mean a company moving off earnings really isn’t a reflection of the overall market.  As someone who invested in satellite components and other aspects, I want to see the industry succeed. Great to see a speculative company generate FCF.  Not sure why this is a bad thing lol. 

_hiddenscout

Really cool to see PL generate FCF this quarter.  Market seems really happy with it. 

Chitikii

Fundamentals are good and these companies are generating fat FCF with gold in a bull market, while also being underpriced, and unloved. It’s the perfect mix for capital to rotate into. It’s too good of an opportunity to not have a position, even if small. I like long term options when it comes to these dirt cheap companies

Chitikii

Fundamentals are good and these companies are generating fat FCF with gold in a bull market, while also being underpriced, and unloved. It’s the perfect mix for capital to rotate into. It’s too good of an opportunity to not have a position, even if small. I like long term options when it comes to these dirt cheap companies

MitchCurry

Stock price alerts are pretty standard. I can't find anything that does valuation alerts (e.g. P/E for COST <50 or P/FCF for PCOR <10, etc.).

_hiddenscout

Yeah with TATT they had that double hit of negative FCF and then stock sale, but sounds like it's to re-invest back into the business. Like with ISSC, they had issues with margins because of bringing on the new honeywell products. Like as long as the investment makes sense, to me, I'm cool with it. Some of these names just end up doing nothing until earnings anyways. Until I see weakness in the aerospace markets, still feels like a strong sector.

Cheap-Bill4118

Ah! Allow me to adjust my answer as well then: valuation (whether that is P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/S) is an incomplete virtue, the truth to company valuation lies in growth expectations versus pricing/valuation.

Happy_Discussion_536

Gotta love all the low IQ mouth breathers in r/valueinvesting and r/stocks getting utterly rekt on the Toyota deal. "So much FCF it's massively undervalued at these prices." Add it to the growing pile of bullshit peddled there. "Coal companies are tremendously undervalued." "Crude will shoot up, commodity supercycle any second now."

dimethylhyperspace

CRWD missed revenue by 1%, beat on EPS. The total "damage" for q2 from the outage will cost 29million.. this is a company with 1.23 billion in FCF. Dips will be bought

Big-Fat-Sak-53

FCF will crater once rates are cut

DrElkSnout

NVDA needs to start a share buyback with all that FCF. I need $140 breached and held.

RiPFrozone

COKE not KO, COKE is the bottling/distribution part of the business. Their 5 year avg FCF growth is 29.2% even assuming the next 5 years will be 13% fair value is around $170 a share or a 34% margin of safety. Definitely one to keep on the watchlist and do more research.

elgrandorado

I actually entered into RACE during liberation day. Not a contrarian play so much as a play on the tariffs not holding, alongside an ever widening inequality gap which is minting more millionaires by the day. Ferrari is essentially a luxury goods company masquerading as a car company that is extremely well managed (aside from their Formula Meme team). Their top line regularly grows in the mid to high teens through their pricing tiers, they've been quick to catch onto Hybrid vehicles, are still tapping into the SUV market, and their vehicles are limited in release (they have large order books that outstrip their purposefully limited supply). Their FCF growth is aggressive despite being playing in a capital intensive industry, and have optionality around their licensing/branding deals. I don't think the company is cheap at these prices but I was buying when the price made sense and I felt comfortable in my understanding of the company.

dimethylhyperspace

Yeah, that makes sense. They are a FCF machine though. As that slows down, it'll be interesting to see how the market rescts

Salt_Yak_3866

This stock is down now and i would like for it to go lower - not that it's justified but rather because if it's a gift now, any lower will be an even better gift . However, this being down allows us to discuss this when it's obviously not in a fomo rally and then that would look like a pump . So look at the revenue growth for the last four years and tell me what that chart looks like ? Impressive isn't it . ( not a question ) Now add in the extraordinarily high double digit margins in the mid to high 70's and the double digit revenue growth as a construct for what that produces and you get one clear answer : " FCF " Free cash Flow and this company just posted over 50 million in Free cash flow . This is going to only get better as they capture more market share and they have identified a 100 Billion Tam . and currently they have grew revenues to approximately 1 billion or 1/100th and yet the grow at 20 percent plus every year . The current Mkt cap is 1 /20th of the TAM . When you put all of this into context you quickly see this will mushroom into a market cap that will be significantly higher than the current market cap and this company is only in the first stages of Free Cash Flow which will expand exponentially and they are debt free . This will be a power house and that is why i am bullish . For now we await the rest of the market understanding what they are ignoring and then we head higher as they start buying .

Proinvestr

DOFG - good growth guidance, low PE, just started paying dividends, pretty boring business. Google - Most undervalued big tech stock CRM - undervalued, high FCF, new acquisition looks different from their old strategy of acquiring companies at high cost. ASML - monopolistic company with high barriers to entry trading at decent multiples, low compared to historical averages. BGEO - high risk* as long as Russia stay occupied with Ukraine this bank stock operating in Georgia and Armenia should continue to increase (may want to wait for a slightly better entry point).

Big-Prompt8991

I was all in until yesterday I was holding that amount of ARX which made maybe 9% on which I thought was lucky given the way that sector has behaved past couple months just thought get that out and think for a day or two as ARX was showing okay but boring and I really am not sure I know enough about the sector so I’m out. MSFT is actually probably my best long term play where I have never sold my position. Wife had some if RRSP room (her room is limited because she has a work pension) and I put $22k CDN in it now worth $262,405k CDN. So as Jim C. might say I am chary of pressing the sell button. As for my take on it today, I haven’t been thinking about selling any although I could lighten it some if I find something I feel sanguine about. This is interesting and easy to review: Scaled Metrics for Radar Chart • Scaled Values: • MSFT: Revenue Growth: 13, FCF: 70.6, EBITDA: 100, Market Value: 100 • GOOGL: Revenue Growth: 12, FCF: 67.8, EBITDA: 86.3, Market Value: 61.0 • NVDA: Revenue Growth: 69, FCF: 38.5, EBITDA: 78.7, Market Value: 99.1 • AMZN: Revenue Growth: 9, FCF: 39.3, EBITDA: 82.6, Market Value: 63.9 • AAPL: Revenue Growth: 5, FCF: 100, EBITDA: 86.0, Market Value: 87.4 • NFLX: Revenue Growth: 13, FCF: 7.9, EBITDA: 7.0, Market Value: 15.0 • TSLA: Revenue Growth: -9, FCF: 1.4, EBITDA: 7.6, Market Value: 33.7 I mean when I look at I would question a sell thesis. Growing T2nd fastest, huge free cash flow, and a growing sticky corporate AI ecosystem. As for NVDA and the stock vs. its metrics I can’t talk about it because I don’t get it and it annoys me some. Outlier earnings growth nope that’s no good Look at me mom I’m selling anyway.

CallMePyro

Well to be fair the people saying it for 10 years were basically non-believers in scaling, battery tech, electric motor efficiency, manufacturing capex vs FCF, etc. you know, business stuff. Those people got proven wrong and they lost money. That would’ve happened without the cult of Elon. The last 2 years have just been a meth addict blowing millions of dollars and lying to the public in earnings calls.

MitchCurry

It's trading above it's 3 year P/S and P/GP average. Can't really look at 3 year average for P/FCF so the 1 year shows it's at a slight discount. P/E is just useless on any trailing averages.

MoulaMan

Ugh I’m down 24%, I was hoping it would shoot closer to $30 post-earnings, so much so that I didn’t even sell calls for extra premium as I hoped there might be some good surprise. Dunno what to make of it, seems as if they’re not seeing any tailwinds at all nor shift in investor sentiment. I sold a few June 26 16.5 puts today. Anyways if I liked it at $23 no reason not to like it under $18. ARR and FCF still growing, plenty of cash. What are your thoughts? Doubling down?

AmbitiousSkirt2

Yeah definitely I do the same thing I research an insane amount of stocks based on valuation vs peers valuation vs the industry and than historical revenue, FCF etc etc it takes me a long time to find a good like 10 stocks usually and I keep an eye on them. But I buy NVDA like it’s a no brainer they were undervalued based on their fundamentals and valuation anyway.

_hiddenscout

One that I haven't looked into, but see on my screener all the time, $ELMD is getting added to the Russell 2k and 3k indexes. I've really come to love companies that aren't even growing revenues as much, but are just increasing FCF because of margin expansion. It's something that I think wall street underrates in terms of finding great companies. Interesting enough, besides $LRN, there are has been some other educational online companies on my screener that all have been killing it the past year.

Xihl

honestly it’s not hard to be a permabull about the US when you have ultra cheap cos like GOOG that are printing infinite FCF and leading tech in their field all while being way off the highs but when I see shit like Palantir and TSLR I just want to short all this bs. This indices are full of so much fucking worthless shit

DrElkSnout

It's not. Look at the gold price. it's not coming down significantly. Their AISC is pretty much a lock and oil has dropped, increasing mining profit. Between the share buyback, gold price rise dramatically within the past 12 months, lower oil prices, acquisition of new mining areas and a very high FCF this train is just getting started. I'll begin my profit taking around $12/share.

AcanthisittaBest3033

I keep it simple and repeatable. Start with a screener - something like Finviz, or TakeProfit.com stock screener - to filter by sector, valuation, and volume. I'm usually looking for **strong FCF**, **stable margins**, and **insider ownership**. Quick “no” comes from red flags: \- declining revenue with rising debt, \- excessive dilution, \- or inconsistent accounting. If it passes the screen, I’ll skim the 10-K (especially MD&A and risk section), earnings transcripts, and check how the company actually makes money. I avoid hype and focus on business quality + capital allocation. If I can’t explain how they make money in two sentences, I move on.

MitchCurry

MELI's 5% of the cost basis my non-cash, non-ETF portfolio and now 15% of the value of my non-cash, non-ETF portfolio. It's my largest position, even larger than my broad-market ETF holdings. I don't put a reverse DCF on a pedestal or anything but I find it a good tool for the tool box. Using FY24 numbers and assuming 25% FCF margins (they were at 34% in 2024 and 31% in 2023 so 25% is conservative), it has an implied growth of 25% revenue annually over the next 10 years. That's not nothing but it's also not sky high. Some numbers I also look at as part of my review of my holdings: It's also trading below it's 5 year averages in P/S, P/GP, P/FCF, P/E, and EV/EBITDA also it's trading above 3 year averages. I'd add before selling but right now, I'm doing neither. My last add was March 7 at \~$1,910.

_hiddenscout

Well it depends if you are trading or investing. Those are two different things to begin with. If you are investing, fundamentals do reflect somewhat of the price of the stock, with the idea being you want to buy something based off future FCF. However, if you are trading, fundamentals don't really matter as much and that's usually when people look into things like TA. Also a one day movement of a stock doesn't matter as much in terms of people looking long term in investing. One of the easiest ways to make money in the stock market is to look for companies that have things like solid ROIC and trade at a responsible valuation. Even better when you buy a simple business that you can understand what they do.