FCF

pyrametrik

Thanks for the detail. So their cashflow from operations (CFO) in the latest Q is 13M. This is greater than their CapEx, so they have a FCF of 9M. On the income statement side, they had 80M in OpEx. I understand this includes things outside of what's considered in CFO (i.e R&D, Marketing). What I'm still confused on, is how this leads to a **positive** change in cash? Those 80M in OpEx have to be paid, no? Has to be accounted for somewhere. But the company did not take on any substantial debt, etc.

MedDog

Sell puts in undervalued, high dividend paying stocks. Then sell calls when they go up. It’s that fucking easy. There’s shit out there with a PE of 1 or 3 with a P/FCF of 2-6. Sure most of these are cyclical, so be careful. Copper took a hit so worth nibbling into. Crash is coming though so just raise cash for now. Special opportunities are also a good bet - mergers, spin offs, etc.

interrobangbros

They actually had cash flows on their Q2 earnings today, first time they've ever released cash flow statement for a quarter. Annually since 2016, their FCF has gone from $13.9MM to $23.9MM to $48.2MM to $59.5MM to $71.5MM to $137.5MM in 2021. FCF/Sh has gone from $0.39 to $0.66 to $1.31 to $1.58 to $1.80 to $3.27 in 2021. Strong FCF and FCF/sh growth.

FreeTacoTuesdays

I couldn't say with precision what to do, I don't know the company or industry quite well enough. I can just recognize the mistakes he's making because I've seen them before. First of all, there's very little in the way of options for a company in an industry that's been so fundamentally disrupted. Because at that point, it's not really about the company, the company is not failing, the road is giving out from under them. Not impossible, but it's the worst position to be in. The most fundamental step you HAVE to take is a real operational turnaround. You can't bleed $300M a month in free cash flow like GME is, you have to do everything in your power to stop the bleed, and extend your runway to either eke out some final value for your shareholders or find and execute on a credible pivot. But of course that's incredibly unsexy - those are hard fucking decisions. No goldenboy startup genius wants to have to fire half his workforce or close 60% of his stores. That's probably what those consultants he decided not to pay and his CFO that he canned were trying to tell him. Obviously his ego can't take that, so that's been largely ignored here in favor of moonshots and wild investment in things that solve none of GME's problems - like logistics. From there you either milk the business for cash till it dies, sell to a greater fool corporate or principal investor, or find and execute on a credible pivot or evolution of the business. I can't tell you what the latter would be, but there's certainly nothing remotely credible about launching a used JPEG emporium. And you certainly can't embark on that kind of thing till you stop hemorrhaging $300M in FCF a quarter.

dramarehab

Dividend? It's not even positive FCF is it?

absoluteunitVolcker

They have zero impact on FCF.... by definition... but they effectively reduce owners' earnings which is what they are basically trying to measure yes? If shares are bought at a premium rather than paid out via dividends you are destroying shareholder value, period. Like I said if you think it's at a big discount then it is accretive.

interrobangbros

Globant beat their own guidance (429MM vs. 425.5MM) and raised full year guidance for the 2nd time ($1.751B to $1.768B to 1.775B now). Revenue was up 41% YoY despite lapping touch 2021 Qs and is up 53% TTM. Gross margin was down 40bps YoY but operating margin was up 130bps and net profit margin was up 220bps. New customer metric is customers generating $10,000+ which was up 42% YoY from 734 to 1,043. Customers generating $1MM was up 51%(!) YoY, from 154 to 233. They have now accelerated $1MM customers 7 straight Qs YoY. Talk about monetizing their biggest customers. Their biggest verticals (Banks, Financial Services, & Insurance up 37% TTM, Media & Entertainment up 46% TTM, Consumer, Retail, & Manufacturing up 54% TTM) now account for 57% of their TTM revenue and are solid growers. Meanwhile, their smaller verticals (Professional Services up 66% TTM, Technology & Telecommunication up 87% TTM, Travel & Hospitality up 76% TTM, and Other, which encompass new verticals that aren't broken out yet, is up 94% TTM) are taking off like gangbusters. 30.7% revenue CAGR since 2014. Bananas. Not sure if you can tell but I'm a big believer in this company. Currently trading at 6.2 P/S, 62 P/FCF (although this is a bit skewed since they release Cash Flow statements only annually and they just announced Q2 results), and 16 P/GP.

Jasonmilo911

>What do you mean by undiversified market of the past? When people use Shiller PE they talk of peaks resembling the levels of other historical times. What they leave out is how it got there. In 1900, SP was 75% rail companies. In 1929, it was 50% steel and materials. Leading up to 2000, tech was around 30% and went as high as 35%. Today tech is the largest component at ca. 20%. It's very different eras with different businesses, each with its own characteristics. Comparing historical periods while ignoring this is an incredibly disingenuous way to make an argument about it. ​ >A worse economic period can have better FCFs... No. When shit hit the fan, FCF gets hit. The worst of times always have the worst FCF yields. Let me add, by far. ​ >Obviously taxes are lower at the moment than they have historically been, but this is a plus on the side of the market being overvalued No basis for that. A lower tax rate has meant record income for the federal government and huge inflows due to corporate cash not being stuck abroad. There is no such thing as "mean regression" in tax rates. It's not a stochastic variable. ​ >I think it's a bit absurd to argue the market is undervalued right now, or even that it was undervalued at 3600. I didn't argue in favor or against this. It's up to anyone to make up his own mind. Again, it's factual present PE reached a low point in June. May you draw your own conclusions, act upon them and be successful!

AustinLurkerDude

Costco could change their membership prices to generate whatever FCF number you desire. They're always packed. I've been to Costcos in Canada, Taiwan, USA, East coast, west coast, etc. We love our Costcos. ​ I own Costco stock and also am a Costco Executive (member). Costco4Life.

Useful_Pair_7528

Stocks are popularity contest, move based on demand If not, alibaba or chinese stocks wouldnt struggle Use "FCF" is only one way of explaining the market, it doesnt "always" be that way

wearahat03

Buybacks have zero impact on FCF. While you are correct that buybacks hide the dilution of SBC in the FCF figures, that's why it's bad to rely in one figure. I always look at the income statement, cash flows and balance sheet. AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL don't report "non-GAAP EPS" with SBC added back. They report their GAAP EPS, and actually use non-GAAP for a real purpose, not just to make them look more profitable than they are.

absoluteunitVolcker

You have an excellent point on the quality of earnings. Intangible assets and good will can hide a shit-ton of costs and inflate income. Free cash flow needs to be looked at in conjunction. However, I would argue some of those premium names have overstated FCF because of buybacks. If you think those names are currently severely undervalued that's a different story but if you assume they might be over-valued a bit buybacks are destroying value. On top of this, a significant portion of those buybacks are absorbed by dilution which is hiding the true value of compensation.

wearahat03

I don't invest in NFLX for one primary reason. Their content amortization policy. I'm not a fan of companies with a large deviation between their free cash flow and net income over a period of time. They report solid net income figures, but their free cash flow is always awful. Their announced EPS becomes meaningless. e.g. 2021 they report 5bn in net income yet FCF is -0.1bn. They do that every year. To contrast, let's take a look at great companies do AAPL 99bn net income, 107bn FCF MSFT 69bn net income, 65bn FCF GOOGL 72bn net income, 65bn FCF You also have the flip side. A bunch of companies reporting great free cash flow, but that's because their share based compensation is insane hence their net income is negative. They always point to their "non-GAAP EPS"

hatetheproject

What do you mean by undiversified market of the past? And I'm curious what the FCF yields look like. Though it's worth noting that price/FCF ratios depend in large part on purchases of inventory etc. A worse economic period can have better FCFs because businesses are allowing inventory to decrease. Curious what the accounting differences are that would make such a big difference. Obviously taxes are lower at the moment than they have historically been, but this is a plus on the side of the market being overvalued (assuming regression to the mean eventually). Amortisation of goodwill is another one, but once again it's increasing earnings today, artificially lowering the PE. I suppose share-based compensation could be a major one? I don't know exactly how much effect that change has had on earnings. I think it's a bit absurd to argue the market is undervalued right now, or even that it was undervalued at 3600.

Jasonmilo911

Shiller PE has flaws of its own. For example, it compares an undiversified market of the past with a diversified market of the present. It compares periods with different accounting standards that systematically understated earnings. When you look at FCF yields, you get a drastically different view. Also, sticking to the way it's calculated, using 2013 earnings does not seem to me like a great way to go at predicting whether the market today is cheap or expensive. Different tax code, no Apple, pre-digital, etc. Nominal PE bottom: * post-dotcom at 17.5 * post-GFC at 13.5 * this year at 16.5 However, these are also backward-looking numbers. Leading back to my point, future eps expectations will drive this market. You don't get low current PE when earnings are down (your example of GFC bottoming market), clearly. You get them when expectations are low.

whiskeyinthejaar

I am not sure where you are going with this because Costco is trading at higher premium than Apple and Google. Whatever you are talking about is emotional surface level nonsense. If a recession happens, Costco is more likely trade at normal level, which is half the current value. Target is trading at 14 Forward PE, which is a normalized level of value from ATH. Costco is trading at 100x FCF with 43 forward PE that is more likely to be close to 50 P/E by earning call. Fundamentals win. It has nothing to do with management. Costco is stupidly overvalued

tiger5tiger5

The cash flow on this one actually looks pretty good. Like a 15% FCF yield.

nineteen84

Trillion Energy International $TRLEF $TCF.CN has a good chance of becoming a 3-5 bagger over the next year. The stock has been beaten down due to delays and financing, but now the financing has been done and the rig is nearly ready to go. Spudding should begin in September and they should be generating FCF by EOY. They are drilling previously identified natural gas targets in the SASB basin. Europe’s demand for non-Russian natural gas is likely to be high for years making this an attractive play. CEO holds a lot of stock and is intending to return money to shareholders. I have noticed some big buys coming through recently and the other day there was a bid for 5M shares at the current price. Full disclosure I have been in the stock since .155 and have been adding to my position on any pullbacks. I am holding for the long term. The CEO has indicated his plan is dividends or buybacks to return capital to shareholders from production.

ckruse3334

PARA does have FCF at the moment is a big reason why

Zvotedziecie

Based on what ? 0% growth ? Supply issues ? Inflation passed unto customers ? Apple is max a 90$ worth stock based on FCF

ckruse3334

If you extrapolate the free cash flow from the most recent quarter they are trading at like 12x free cash flow and that was supposedly an awful quarter with around a billion in merger costs. If they get anywhere near the $8 billion in FCF then the company will be a great investment. I just hope they decide to lower debt under 2.5x EBITDA.

senrim

My opinion how i am doing it now ( after many many unnecessary mistakes) There are few main ways of finding a stock or etf. First is actually really simple, look around you. What you know, what you use, what you see, what people talk about. Then proceed from there. Look at the basic data. PE ratio vs history and vs industry. Growth, FCF, debt, what they do with FCF (buying shares back, dividends etc) and compare those stats to competition. you can use gurufocus on that. Read investors presentation and guidance. Second is screening. Use finviz for that. What you screening is fundamentals. I would start with screening companies with PE and FWD PE under 15, with PEG under 1, EPS and sales growth past 5 years. You can also enter stuff like ROIC etc. Its up to you. PE under 15 might be low for some growth companies, but remember when you enter higher PE it should reflect higher growth in the past and in the future.

Keeperofthewall

Their forward guidance may save us, the first deliveries on their duel fuel LNG powered ships should be coming in in the next 2 quarters. They had an order for 25 of them, not sure how shipmaking got disturbed by WuFlu....also don't know if they used FCF or debt. Maybe u/looseventures has some updates.

NPRjunkieDC

Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/ElBVTjz

Hardcoreposer7

Any thoughts on RDW at these levels? From a price action point of view, does it look like it’s breaking out? Seems to be one of the few previously hyped deSPACs that hasn’t quite done so yet after basing for a long time. Fundamentally, I know they had their accounting issues and lowered guidance, but the price ($3.50) may reflect that already and it’s still the only space deSPAC that is or very close to FCF positive.

Tfarecnim

Cool story, now when will it become FCF+ or will it forever rely on shareholder charity?

interrobangbros

Not sure what the industry being ingrained has to do with a solid investment. Their stock has been a complete and abject disaster for long-term shareholders over the past 15 years. Their revenue has literally declined since 2018 so the topline is abysmal. Their net income also is a dumpster fire, falling >50% since 2018 despite bring cost of revenue down over the same time. Even their FCF is on the downtrend. I can't find a single good thing they have going for them. They don't even pay a dividend. But hey, good luck. I see a value trap and Burry owning shares is a huge negative.

k_ristovski

Yes, SBC for the first two quarters of 2022 is $740, so annualized would be over $1b. In fact, for the last twelve months, it was close to $1.3b. Tikr has FCF at -$534m for the last twelve months excluding share-based compensation. So if we take that into account, it would be -$1.8b. Tikr's FCF for 2021 is 4,48b for 2021 (The year that is behind us), they're estimating -4,4b for 2022 (NEGATIVE) and $67m for 2023 :) All of this without any SBC adjustments.

Burnit0ut

It’ll come back to earth and settle at a 12-15 PE. It’ll take time tho. Their growth demonstrates this fact. Their FCF does not justify this move.

abducting__aliens

I appreciate the information. I do think they overestimated. And I apologize if my criticism is impertinent, I do value your opinion and the different perspective you're sharing. A couple things though, >Share-based compensation which are already over $1b It actually isn't. SBC for the first two quarters of 2022 is $740 million. And for the entire year of 2021 it was $829 million. And TIKR has FCF at $4.48b so even if I deduct the SBC from 2021 and deduct the extra amount from the annualized expenses of 2022 vs 2021, I get an adjusted FCF of $3.1b. If I use that same perpetuity formula with your WACC and that FCF, I get a present value of $34.5b and a share price of $132.

theta_eta_my_beta

Anyone have thoughts on KSS or BIG? Priced like they are going under based on P/B and P/FCF. And BBBY and DDS are memeing, so they might get sympathy. And I think the death of the consumer is exaggerated.

Jerm8585

The 'luxury' (ex. Urby) apartments I know are in extremely HCOL areas. For many younger high-earners, moving away is a non-starter. But a ~$200k down-payment + carrying costs for similar lifestyle is a tall order for most. I agree it's hard to see what problem they're solving, or how Neumann + a16z addresses NIMBYism, supply issues, etc. My cynical take is they want dependable FCF in a tough VC environment, and can fleece investors & renters along the way.

_hiddenscout

For sure! I really like the idea of them and FLNC. Just told myself I won't invest in anything that isn't FCF postive anymore.

MrOnlineToughGuy

It’s drowning and debt with a negative FCF...

Shot_Lynx_4023

One needs to read up on rules of dividends. And trade settlement. And the record date. Usually* the trade needs to be settled by the record date to qualify. * Sometimes the record date and EX Date are different. Not financial advice. Personally I add one business day if I'm buying something just for the Dividend. Rather get it for certain. Especially for "special dividend" that are based off FCF from that quarter. Holding another 90 day's and hopefully it's another variable dividend isn't an ideal use of capital

interrobangbros

Clear had a good quarter. I'm tempted to open a starter position. Margins are improving, the company has become FCF positive and management is focusing on improving that further over time, Revenue growth is accelerating as things re-open, bookings, enrollments, and uses all growing fast, net member retention back in the mid-90s. Anyone own shares or have done a deep dive recently?

Destructo11

NFLX had $13b in free cash flow for Q2, WBD had $789m. I don't believe companies include interest payments in reported FCF, so FCF would be about -$155m for NFLX and +$200m for WBD after accounting for (averaged out) interest payments. So with Netflix you need to believe that they are making investments that will lead to strong growth, otherwise their profits are fake. With WBD you just need to believe they will stabilize revenues, with streaming/gaming/box office increases making up for linear TV declines. I do like Sony stock though, mainly because I think PS will have strong profits over the next decade with their media business (TV/music/movies) doing well also.

jip_upwallstreet

$VEON. 0,48 intrínsic value 2,50 . FCF free cash 3B.

cloudgainz

Well they repurchased in the May qtr (LOL)… not sure why, when they simultaneously are cutting A/C to save on operating exp. -$489mm of FCF in qtr & ended qtr at just over $100mm of cash and they bought back almost $50mm of stock in the quarter. Totally irresponsible and insane.

Zerd85

Right. Personally I’m not concerned with what consumers may CURRENTLY think about a service. That’s kind of what was alluded to earlier in gaining market share. I’m essentially betting, that the company I’ve chosen to invest in, will find a way to encourage consumers to continue using their good/service, or begin to. I should’ve also ended my earlier post with, those 6 things are what I do to bet before looking at fundamentals. Too high PE? I may consider it. Low price to book? Far more likely. Decent EPS growth and FCF over the last few years? I’m liking you more. But that’s how I chose my 20. Now it’s just adding to those positions.

Mutated_Cunt

I'd rank the FAAMAN stocks in terms of business quality as follows. MSFT > GOOG > AMZN > META > AAPL >>>>> NFLX NFLX lost its first mover advantage, the competition has caught up, streaming is becoming a money burning race to the bottom the same way ridesharing has. Companies are paying more for content that is less monetizable than the previous generations of media distribution. AAPL is the most hardware reliant, and most exposed to inflationary pressures / supply chain issues. None of these companies have meaningful debt (outside maybe NFLX), so interest payment rises aren't a serious problem. AAPL has the most FCF out of any of them, but I expect this to change. They're also the most reliant on China, which is a ticking financial timebomb. META is the hardest to rank. Its either the best business on this list, or the worst. Social media companies are inherently unstable, ask MySpace, but the Zuck has turned his enterprise into the most profitable company of all time (Gross profit $96b, Gross margin 80%, that's absurd). The Metaverse is a money pit, don't expect any ROI on that venture in the next 5 years. A much better use of that capital is ~~bribing~~ lobbying congress to get TikTok rightfully banned for being Chinese malware. AMZN is the company I understand the least on this list. I do believe they are tapping the limits of their growth, the pandemic years practically funneled the entire population into their business model. More out of respect for their ability to defy expectations I've put them 3rd. Maybe if The Rings of Power is actually watchable I'll bump em up further. GOOG had the crown of most profitable enterprise until Zuck stole it, but they're still a cash machine. They practically own all advertising space on the western internet, this isn't going away and will continue to be extremely profitable. Their business relies on other business, so they're not immune to deleveraging recessions, but you'll always have to pay their troll toll to put your name out there. I am worried about their main product, google search, its gotten really fucking bad lately. [This is a meme vid, but actually outlines the problems really well.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT7_SxJ3oSI) I don't see how a competitor could break their monopoly, but I feel like something has to give. MSFT is king, and that's not just the vaxx microchip in my brain talking. Satya Nadella might just be the greatest CEO of all time in the history of capitalism, he's at least top 5. They went from being a [Simpsons punchline of anti-competition](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H27rfr59RiE) under Gates, to a [sleazy salesman under Mr. Sweaty armpits](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vhh_GeBPOhs), to someone who understood the best way to become a growth company is to actually allow ideas to grow. Now none of this gives any information on which of these is the most overvalued / least undervalued. I do agree with OP that AAPL seems like it has the furthest to fall. I could see AMZN taking a much harder hit than they already have. META has taken the most pain already, largely due investor concerns about how TikTok sprung out of nowhere to steal the <25yr old social media market share. Who's to say someone can't come up with another app to steal different age groups? They need new products fast, not just shitty clones of their rivals. I'm neutral on GOOG and MSFT, and staying the fuck away from NFLX. I'm not gonna pull a SPACman. Was interesting to see Burry go SHORT APPL LONG GOOG META, that slotted nicely with my thesis. One other thing, these companies are so large and pervasive in all index funds that they drag the rest of the market with them when they move. If AAPL puts out a negative revised earnings guidance, all of these big bois will take a hit. Anyway I got a bit carried away, and this is by no means authoritative, I'm just a dumb cunt on the internet.

Outside_Ad_1447

I can create your modem using your info u gave me, what is 2022 FCF cuz that is the only thing i am missing

Outside_Ad_1447

I don’t use terminal FCF multiple I’m not sure what that is, i use terminal value based off of last year of FCF presented, WACC of tgr

NPRjunkieDC

I have a very simple spreadsheet with 4 basic rows to identify best value stocks . Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. These are 4 variables I add to choose strongest companies. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the worst stocks in terms of value .

NPRjunkieDC

I personally would take out Berkshire or reduce it considerably. Add a few small or mid caps The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

IllustriousAd3838

WBD is an absolute monster. When it comes to streaming, they have the best content. Most of this sub may not enjoy watching discovery, but Food Network, HGTV, ID, A&E, TLC, Own, Travel, History, Scifi, NAT Geo... Etc. No other service has this lineup of content or can compete. This stock is a multi bagger once FCF comes to light and they start streamlining their DC characters

NPRjunkieDC

When someone pointed out that TSLA had 8B in sales and 1B in stock but cost close to $1000 So I put together a spreadsheet with 200 companies mentioned on here ranked by value index. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/ElBVTjz UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the worst stocks in terms of value .

YoloSnek

Thanks a bunch for going into detail here. Super super helpful. I almost always require stable FCF, but made an exception here because of the razor-blade business model and consumable margins. It's easy to model, so I just need to be right on the install base, which has doubled over the last year. I'll see if I can dig up that patent, but supposedly it's a game changer with 30x increase in throughput. They're working through a backlog of legacy instruments before launching this next gen one. And regarding the funding increase, I'm just referring to public health in general, not just virology. The UK is famously sequencing its entire population's genome (using ILMN) and I just feel like there's room for PACB in some of those budgets. Preventative care, etc. Idk, could be wrong. But feel like it's compelling because the cost per sequence is about to come down hard, at least according to my source.

GamestopChad

Deleverage through spinning buybuyBaby or issuing shares after a squeeze (like GME). BBBY has many FCF positive stores and huge revenue. After they delever they can close any non-performing stores to generate FCF consistently and grow from there. It’s a clean setup

NPRjunkieDC

Portfolio started 6/30. Low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF https://imgur.com/a/ElBVTjz

thorium43

The dividends are consistent, and all FCF for several Russian steel companies is paid as dividends. I bought when low thinking I was getting a perpetual annual yield of 50%.

loose-ventures

**Here are my notes on VET:** * CFO of $530 * FCF of $340MM ($2.07/share), an increase of 12% from Q1 * Pro forma Q2 FCF of $422MM incorporating incremental 36.5% ownership in Corrib for a total of 56.5% ownership * All FCF from the Corrib acquisition accrues to VET as of Jan 1, 2022 and will be netted off the $600MM purchase price at the time of closing expected in Q4. * Div increasing 33% which equates to a $0.08CAD div for Q2 payable on Oct 17 to shareholders as of Sep 30 and an annualized div of $0.32CAD (1% yield) * Annual cash dividend will be limited to 10% of mid-cycle FFO * Expecting to return up to 25% of FCF in 2H 2022 and 50% - 75% of FCF in 2023. * Various options will be considered, incl. share buybacks, regular and special dividends, and a potential substantial issuer bid. * Most capital return will be share buybacks, initially * 16.077MM share buyback program approved in July–1.25MM shares repurchased for $35MM to date * Leucrotta acquisition completed and successfully integrated. Now focused on completing 6-well Montney pad drilled in Q2. * Actively seeking further acquisitions given good value, short payback period, and high IRR * L-T Debt of $1.5B resulting in slight decrease in leverage. Planning to reduce debt to $1.2B by end of 2022 and $850MM by end of 2023. * Expecting PF 2022 FCF of $1.8B ($11/share) Approx. $16MM annual FFO per $1 change in oil prices (unhedged) Approx. $39MM annual FFO per C$1 change in natural gas prices (unhedged) * CapEx of $550MM expected for 2022 (increase of $50MM) resulting from significant unexpected international turnaround (which weighed somewhat on overall earnings). * Volume production guidance remains unchanged despite international headwinds Source: [https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion\_Energy\_-\_Corporate\_Presentation\_-\_August\_2022.pdf](https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion_Energy_-_Corporate_Presentation_-_August_2022.pdf)

interrobangbros

I actually don't. It was really bad. They cut full year guidance by 11.8%, their margins got worse, revenue shrank YoY, TTM FCF is a shell of what the previous TTM had been, their CFO left for another CFO gig (albeit it at bigger company), and they said their goal of $2.5B in revenue by FY24 guidance is "being extended beyond FY2024." That latter part indicates they expect several years of tough sledding.

NPRjunkieDC

VLGE is a value stock but take a look at these with low debt + low PE/PEG and P/FCF Pic from few days ago https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

AP9384629344432

/u/NPRjunkieDC will swoop in with her PE/PEG P/FCF, debt metrics and picks for many small caps. /u/drew-gen-x was talking about GT, LEVI picks the past 2 weeks.

AcidRohnin

It was the first stock I evaluated prior to getting into the market myself about 6-7 months ago. In my valuation it is far over its intrinsic value but that doesn’t mean it’s still not worth a buy. I wanted to buy more around $100/share but it never got that low. I gave up and bought more at $105. I can’t imagine it will go anywhere anytime soon. I think it is a good company to hold long term and should give you a decent return the longer you hold it. Their books look good, and they have a ton of FCF, which should allow them to stay in the forefront of their sector.

grogu_the_retard

Good read. Also think bankruptcy risk becomes more of an issue in late 2023 when the Aug 24 bonds come due. Goldman is also forecasting positive FCF for FY23 3-4Q, so aside from a near-term revolver draw, shorts may be facing a losing fundamental battle. I have a large long position

therealkobe

but we're doing worse - numbers look solid - a lot of FCF was used for stock buybacks and inventory/supply expansion. &#x200B; NVDA and MU releashed shit earnings but AMD gets beat up the most... thought we would decouple already.

Robot_beepbeep

Why not instead look at guidance or forecasted 2022-2023 revenue, FCF, and their margins (~40%) compared to market cap instead of a simple P/E. That will still probably undervalue them given that Enphase has consistently beat guidance even prior to the recent catalysts.

NPRjunkieDC

Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the worst stocks in terms of value .

yellowbrickroad2YOLO

Ha - I agree! I do not have a timeframe. I’ll be holding the stub as long as I feel new management is headed in the right direction. The FCF generation this Q stood out to me and the growth at Viator. There are other possible catalysts but I’m unable to timeframe them. TheFork IPO, Liberty putting their stake up for sale, etc. If there is a technical-breakdown back into the downtrend channel I will probably exit and watch.

NPRjunkieDC

Created 6/30 . Most green and many double digits Best in value index with low debt + low PE/PEG/ P/FCF https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

NPRjunkieDC

You are my SIL's age and similar situation probably. She was able to delay getting SS until age 70 so her $3600-3800 are enough for most of her monthly expenses. Her 401K mostly for travel . Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks up double digits a few down just a bit) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the worst stocks in terms of value .

NPRjunkieDC

TITN + ALTO + CONN + THO This portfolio is since 6/30 (6 weeks) All have low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF Note most up double digits and a few red but only a few % down https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

NPRjunkieDC

TITN + ALTO + CONN + THO This portfolio is since 6/30 (6 weeks) All have low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF Note most up double digits and a few red but only a few % down https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

NPRjunkieDC

TITN + ALTO + CONN + THO This portfolio is since 6/30. All have low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF Note most up double digits and a few red but only a few % down https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

DoobsNDeeps

If revenue halts it's decline going into next year and margins return to 2018 levels, then FCF yield is 35%... So if you can believe that, then the world's your oyster. BUT if you buy shares now and prop up the price, squeeze the shorts, then mgmt. can issue shares above fair value and raise a bunch of money, which can refurbish the sh\*t business that it is now :)

NPRjunkieDC

Together with DIS +UPST + TSLA at the bottom of my value index . NVDA by far the worst . Look at DIS + UPST . Haven't mentioned this all these weeks cuz sure I would get bashed. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. Made a selection of the ones with best index + low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS

NPRjunkieDC

P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30 (most stocks green) https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS DIS + UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the 4 worst stocks in terms of value .

NPRjunkieDC

Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The value stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30: https://imgur.com/a/UZBvELS Note that most stocks are up double digits and those red haven't dropped much. DIS + UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the 4 worst stocks in terms of value .

NPRjunkieDC

TITN + CVLG + ALTO + CONN+ CPRI All low debt + low PE/PEG/ P/FCF

NPRjunkieDC

TITN + CVLG + ALTO + CLF + CONN. All have low debt + low PE + PEG + P/FCF

liquidamber_h

Have any $SOFI holders read their financials? Why are you investing in a company with negative FCF for its entire existence? How are you modeling this company?

_Tyler-_-

CNX: E&P Executive compensation heavily tied to shareholders returns. Lock-in revenues by hedging production far out. Produce $700m in free cash flow annualized. Repurchasing a significant amount of shares. Expect to double FCF Per Share by 2026. Current FCF Yield of 21%. Low cost producer in basin. Debt is a non issue.

nothing2Cmovealong1

Mine is LUMN. I have had this stock for a few years. I have been waiting years for this beast to take off... still hasn't happened. It does pay a good dividend, has good FCF, too much debt (though serviceable), they have been 'transforming' for the past few years... I originally thought it was a great play. However, Mgmt, has not really delivered. I am not hoping for them to be acquired in the next couple of years due to their massive fiber assets - Starlink, I am looking at you!!!!

interrobangbros

Been on my Buy? watchlist for about a year now. Can’t argue with what I’m seeing. I think they’ll be FCF positive in 2023 as well.

Runningflame570

It's an annual dividend, but UMC pays out nicely and is significantly more diversified in terms of fab locations than most foundry companies. A mixture of China fears and recession fears have them down significantly despite very strong growth YTD. No guarantee their dividend keeps growing or even stays the same (lots of CapEx until 2024), but at a TTM P/E of 8.5 and almost 40% revenue growth YoY alongside margin expansion they seem to have plenty of margin for error. PARA at current prices has a P/E of just over 4 and is growing revenue nicely now. The flipside is they've gone from positive to negative FCF as they build their streaming business and expect impact on FCF from that to peak next year. That being said, with the amount of cash on their balance sheet and a 4% yield they still seem like a nice pick if you don't agree with the market's fears of streaming having structurally worse economics vs. cable and broadcast.

NPRjunkieDC

Numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The value stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30: https://imgur.com/a/dw0adOP DIS + UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the 4 worst stocks in terms of value .

NPRjunkieDC

Started with 70K then 5 months later 275K. Fell to 135K then I managed to get to 175K. Kept putting more money in. Got to 45K! Now my investment is 150K and I'm at 100K. Few months ago figured out that numbers matter. P/ (sales/outstanding shares) = Value index . Closer to zero better . Only 3 variables. I have spreadsheet with 200 companies ranked by value index. The value stocks in list below also have low debt +low PE/PEG/ P/FCF . All this info is available on Finviz.com. Portfolio started 6/30: https://imgur.com/a/dw0adOP DIS + UPST + NVDA + TSLA are the 4 worst stocks in terms of value .

Jojos_mojo420

AMKR- a semiconductor packaging/equipment manufacturer that has contracts with Apple. They have lower margins than their peers but have 1/4 of their market cap in FCF and have been pumping at a 20% growth level for a few years now. I wouldn't expect a 10x here but could envision 5X growth in the share price given 7-10 years.

kriptonicx

Interesting. I haven't looked at this stock for a while, but looking at the numbers now the stock has come down this looks very reasonable... It's trading at around 35x FCF which isn't a bad valuation at all. Even having positive FCF is definitely a plus for a young growth tech company like this. It seems the issue is that their growth is decelerating and they've revised growth numbers down from 25% to low double digits. Still, even with the lower growth numbers it seems reasonably valued. I guess the question investors have is whether growth will reaccelerate or if this deceleration will continue. Huge guidance misses like this raise a lot of red flags. My guess is that the declaration in growth is just a temporary pandemic / reopening thing, but I'd need to do some more research. If YoY growth does reaccelerate to 20% it could be a multi-bagger. I'll have to do some more reading, but it doesn't look like a bad buy.

NPRjunkieDC

ALTO + CONN + TCS all have low debt + low PE/PEG/ P/FCF

RATSUEL2020

Quite the pop. LDOS looks cheap relative to the rest of the sector. It has held up exceptionally. Less than 1x sales and 13x FCF stands out in the sector.