FCF

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

Once robotics automate $Amzn We will see 30%+ FCF that's $130B FCF COMING RIGHT UPPP

_hiddenscout

Anyone here follow **STVN?** Came across them screening this morning, kind of an interesting name. This is what they do: >Stevanato Group S.p.A. engages in the design, production, and distribution of products and processes to provide solutions for biopharma and healthcare industries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America, and the Asia Pacific. >It operates through two segments, Biopharmaceutical and Diagnostic Solutions; and Engineering. The company offers drug containment solutions comprising pre-fillable syringes, cartridges, vials, and ampoules; in-vitro diagnostic solutions; drug delivery systems, including pen injectors, auto-injectors, and wearable injectors; diagnostic laboratory consumables; analytical and regulatory support services; medical devices; pharmaceutical visual inspection machines; assembling and packaging machines; glass forming machines; and after-sales services, such as spare parts and maintenance services. They have some exposure to GLP1s, but worry about the pill taking off. Kind of a smaller float name too. From a PE level, it's a bit high, but PEG is at 1.5, so if they can keep up the growth, it's somewhat a fair value price. [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d) Sounds like they are trying to expand more into the US, so CAPEX could weight down some of the FCF. [https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from](https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from) Here's the last ER press release: [https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/\_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06\_Stevanato\_Group\_Reports\_Revenue\_of\_303\_2\_Million\_171.pdf](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06_Stevanato_Group_Reports_Revenue_of_303_2_Million_171.pdf)

Agitated_Iron_7

Amazon has the potential to be the world’s first 10 trillion dollar company. However, that doesn’t mean they necessarily will… but they *could*. To get there, Amazon could choose to turn on the money printers whenever they want and generate monstrous free cash flow. More FCF than any company on Earth. We got to see a brief glimpse of that before they began spending like crazy on capex within the last year. Why don’t they stop spending? The prudent move for the company is to invest in AI. It is simply too great of an opportunity to pass-up. Advertising, AWS, 3rd Party Seller Services, and Subscriptions are all high margin segments of Amazon that are all growing fabulously. AWS isn’t all there is at Amazon. That’s an outdated narrative. Robotics have the potential to synergize their network, making tight margins high and high margins even higher. Amazon’s share of global retail is still only 4-5%! Their runway is still unfathomably large. Their TAM may as well be infinite at this point in time. Additionally, Amazon still has not instituted a capital return program in the form of dividends and/or buybacks. An annual share buyback program could go a long way towards compounding their stock price. I hold a lot of Amazon. I’m fine accumulating them silently while the market hysterically follows other opportunities. Amazon’s day will come, and their potential gains can still be face melting. The bet here is asymmetrical. There isn’t much risk investing in arguably the most important and valuable American business. As far as I’m concerned, Amazon will be worth 10 trillion dollars at some point. The matter of when is the only question. From here, that’s a 4x gain…

Green-Grass-8782

I’ve been in Uber since earlier this year at $60 and have more conviction than ever that they have a bright future. There is not going to be a winner takes all scenario like some imply. As bullish as I am I hesitate to say it’s severely undervalued. I’ve plugged in different inputs using FCF and I come out in the $90-100 range myself. I think if management executes like I think they will then it most certainly could be a trillion dollar market cap in the next decade.

ptexpat

i was looking at AROC and they seem to have had heavy CAPEX in some of the recent quarters leading to low / -ve FCF in some of them. Were you able to get comfortable with the drivers of that? Also, just wondering whether you have looked at FTI?

asianrockstar2009

FCF is easily manipulated, just offer lots of Stock-Based Compensation and that line gets added into

TeamConsistent5240

I know, right? When you do FCF analysis, it’s based on operating cash flow. Amazon isn’t become less profitable.. it’s making more.. I’m buying for AWS and robotics. Look pretty good to me at 28x next years earnings. Could care less about the retail business apart of marketing and the potential to leverage robotics as a massive moat.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

Not so much in this case. Amazon has low FCF due to high Capex. They have high Capex due to very high demand for AWS. So the Capex will likely result in increased future FCF.

Budget_Initiative740

Due to high CAPEX which will improve future capacity. Even if Ai buildout turns out to be a bubble, just reducing their CAPEX budget will bring FCF right back up as their OCF is relatively stable despite macro conditions

digital_odysseus

Fiserv FISV looks like a classic special situation to me. The market is still anchoring to guidance and communication from the previous management, while the new management team hasn’t fully proven itself yet, so there’s understandable skepticism. That said, the new leadership actually looks quite strong on paper. The CFO is ex-Global Payments with VC experience, and the co-president is the former Stripe CFO. That’s a meaningful upgrade in fintech and payments expertise. Strategically, their plan to integrate services makes sense, especially in the current AI environment where rewriting legacy systems, reducing tech debt, and optimizing operations are finally becoming feasible. They’re also looking at AI primarily as an optimization lever (not hype), and they’re investing in a stablecoin strategy that could meet global merchant needs and improve cost efficiency over time. While management still needs to prove execution, I found the Q3 earnings call refreshing. The tone was one of candor, not promotional optimism, which I actually view as a positive signal at this stage of a turnaround. From a fundamentals standpoint, the company generates strong and consistent free cash flow. Even with leverage on the balance sheet, the FCF quality is solid. With ongoing optimization, product integration, and platforms like Clover, I think there’s a reasonable path to mid-term earnings growth. This is still a competitive and capital-intensive industry, so it’s not without risk. However, payments and financial infrastructure continue to grow globally, and Fiserv has meaningful exposure to international markets. At the current valuation, the stock looks closer to a bargain than a value trap, in my view, and I see it as an attractive 3–5 year investment if management executes.

phosphate554

Adobe is probably my #1 pick for 2026-2030. One of the highest quality business in the word, growing at 10+%, margin expansion (insane, already at 89%), FCF machine and huge buybacks.

TheVariantView

What we're seeing happening to Nike has been happening to Lululemon as well, granted that, as a few other posters here have said, Nike lacks growth opportunity in China, while Lululemon has that opportunity. But, they struggle with the same increased competition, tariffs & margin contraction, partly fueled by tariffs. I've seen some commenters mention that revenue figures are "up", this is probably one of the worst numbers you could be looking at this time in Nike's cycle, they're pushing heavy discounts to further sales, and this is evident in the contracting gross-margin which, contrary to popular belief, isn't entirely tariffs driven. A much better look into their financials is in terms of EBITDA margins and FCF, where both have been heavily weakening over the years due to these struggles that have seen no fundamental change. Nike has been very sluggish on turning over their inventory, it is getting increasingly difficult for them to sell (without discounts), which temporarily propped up uFCF. fwd PE is at \~31x which is well above all comps, and honestly can't be justified by brand equity; we're clearly seeing a shift away in discretionary purchases towards cheaper newer alternatives. I think something interesting to talk about is what came out in the news recently about Lululemon, Elliott took a large stake & is looking to place a turnaround CEO in the position. They noted core problems with Lululemon are: (1) Brand Dilution and Discounting (2) Lack of Innovation & Newness for Newness' Sake (3) Strategic Drift Beyond the Core (4) Leadership and Execution Problem 1 is the same as Nike's, and was the same at Ralph Lauren prior to its turnaround. Problem 2 is same as Nike, though it's a bit unclear what Elliott means by "innovation" imo (it's clothing & apparel after-all). Problem 3 is similar, but in a different way, for lululemon it meant drifting from the core leggings, whereas Nike this seems to be traditional partnerships, shoe lines, etc. Problem 4 directly contradicts the other commenter referring to Nike needing a non-"woke" CEO, Lululemon has one, and they're struggling. For a company as large as Nike, it's going to be a long ride and very difficult turnaround that is unlikely to begin with current management and compensation structure. Catalysts seems very far out, while sluggish returns are much closer and realistic. **TLDR: NIKE is trading above all peers and a turnaround seems unlikely and complicated with their core issues. This is not a stock to buy at these levels.** *Note: This is just a quick surface-level overview of Nike, if anyone is truly interested, I'm happy to do an entire write-up over the weekend to further my points.*

RiPFrozone

Being in Broadcom for years I’d say it’s the most diversified of the semiconductor companies. They have a near 50:50 split in revenue from semiconductor revenue and software revenue after the VMware acquisition. Along with that if you are bullish on the future of ASICs or simply Google TPUs (Broadcom is their partner to make them) it might be the only company which holds a candle to Nvidia long term. Their earnings were great, but investors just didn’t like the QA of the call where Hock Tan really didn’t give much clarity on how much of the 500b backlog we can expect to see in 2026. The company will rally again once sentiment shifts. Today’s valuation is definitely at a premium, so even this dip doesn’t make it “cheap”. However, if you believe in their long term execution to increase FCF to 78b by 2028 it’s trading at around 20x FCF which is reasonable.

Ok_Foot2530

Important fundamentals don’t change over time - moat (pricing power, sustained market share, high entry barrier, high ROIC, etc. as signs), good economics (ROE, sustainable margins), predictability (risks are manageable on most fronts, and downside case not too detrimental), valuation (discount vs FCF, margin of safery). In an environment of excess liquidity and narratives-driven concentration (today), I look away from AI hype and even outside US most of time now, to find high quality ones. Plenty undervalued sectors / stocks - I think housing related ones are cheap in the US, and I think China consumer stocks are too beaten down, etc. and many are overvalued - SaaS stocks are not valued right today, their multiples and margins will be lower given AI’s commoditization forces and SaaS integration of AI / upcoming R&D and S&M spend to stay relevant with AI.

InevitableAd2436

I can tell you’re not a very good trader. It likely stems from your low impulse control. That’s why you don’t want to share. I have a nearly 700% gain since inception now. I’m sorry that it bothers you that meditation is an important component in trading. https://imgur.com/a/V2mSt4h I would recommend you start box breathing 4-4-4-4 to relax your nervous system and look at BMBL and BRCC. Bumble is being priced for failure with a 2 year payback on FCF. BRCC insiders have been buying heavily. Those are my next two major bets. Namaste ☺️

_hiddenscout

AROC is basically the leader in natural gas compression. The bad side is the capex to upgrade some of their equipment and some lumpy FCF, which has concerns around the dividend. However, still good growth. EXFT is more of a turn around story of recent. Been working on debt levels, but have a good backlog and strong relationships with clients in the Permian basin.

hydraByte

Great question, I’m glad you asked! I don’t think there is one specific catalyst as much as there is an enormous misunderstanding about ADBE’s existing general value proposition mixed with an exaggerated fear that AI competitors will significantly eat into ADBE’s marketshare. It’s not really necessary for ADBE to suddenly have some major change that inflates their valuation massively (though that is a possibility given the growth they are making on their own AI models and the strategy behind it), it’s that people are prematurely making assumptions that AI competitors are eating up ADBE’s marketshare in a way that has not borne out in any solid numbers so far, but that has caused people to sell off the stock despite it’s ongoing earnings growth. First of all, when you say ADBE is down on the 5 year charts, I assume you are talking about the share price. But virtually every other metric looks exceptional. Here are some numbers from the last 5 years (I did Q3 since I already had the math, even though Q4 is out now): Net Income (Trailing Twelve Months) - Q3 2020: $3.862 billion - Q3 2025: $6.957 billion - 5 Year Growth: $3.095 billion - 5 Year Growth Rate: 80.1% - Annual Growth Rate (Average): 16% - Compound Annual Growth Rate: 12.5% Diluted EPS (Trailing Twelve Months) - Q3 2020 = $7.9375 / share - Q3 2025 = $16.0538 / share - 5 Year Growth: $8.1163 / share - 5 Year Growth Rate: 102.3% - Annual Growth Rate (Average): 20.5% - Compound Annual Growth Rate: 15.1% You might notice the disparity between their net income and the Earnings Per Share — that’s because Adobe buys back shares aggressively when they feel their stock is selling at an undervalued share price, and in that last 5 years those share buybacks have amounted to 2.6% Compound Annual Growth of EPS by itself. They can afford to do this because of their exceptional free cash flow (FCF) margins (~40%), which is exceedingly rare for companies. I’m going to bed now, but tomorrow I’ll add a follow up message going into more detail about why I think they have a winning strategy on the front of AI, which is the specific place that they might manage to get explosive growth if they can pull it off. But the point of this message was to show they don’t need to pull it off in any kind of major way to continue to do well — their numbers are pretty good even right now. Mostly, people are just afraid.

Foreign-Package-4359

Good point on EBITDA vs CFO.  It this situation Oracle isn't going to run at negative FCF for the foreseeable future. All of this capex is financed with LTD and future data center builds will be financed. They have have $19.4b in operating profits and interest payments are about $3.8b a year. Something to keep an eye on but not an issue. They can't do this forever but it is a huge build out which should start generating revenue in the next year. Tons of levers to pull if they are worried about it but why would they be worried about it. 

GoldenPresidio

It should have went down when the deals were announced to be fair, because they are negative FCF deals

King_Chron

**SNDL Inc – Long-Term Bull Thesis (3–7 yrs) | NASDAQ: SNDL** * Market Cap: \~$536M | Cash: \~$178M | Debt: $0 | FCF 2025: \~$35–40M, projected $50M+ (2026) * Canadian ops: liquor (Ace Liquor, Liquor Depot, Wine & Beyond) + cannabis retail (Spiritleaf → Value Buds) + cannabis cultivation/production → stable cash flow * U.S. optionality via SunStream USA: \~$260M convertible debt → equity in FL, TX, MI, MA, NM → Top-5 North American MSO potential if federal legalization (Schedule III) occurs * 2025 revenue: $723M USD; Gross Margin \~26%; owner earnings \~$40–45M * Valuation: DCF & SOTP suggest $4–6/share vs current \~$2.10 → \~2–3x upside * Catalysts: U.S. federal rescheduling (removes 280E), SunStream conversions, Canadian consolidation, margin expansion via Indiva/private-label products * Capital Allocation: share buybacks $120–150M, Canadian tuck-ins $40–80M, U.S. roll-up via SunStream $150–300M **Bottom Line:** FCF-positive, cash-rich, undervalued Canadian retailer with embedded U.S. MSO optionality → asymmetric 3–7 yr upside.

CanYouPleaseChill

In what would is it certainly underpriced. It has a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 72 and it's up 57% YTD. Do you think that's normal in any way? Of course it isn't.

CanYouPleaseChill

It's a 3.6T market cap company that's up 57% YTD and has a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 72. It's a terrible time to buy the dip.

Negative_Win_5117

What are you smoking? They just reported their highest FCF ever.

hungover247365

Is it desperation if we expect MU to rescue the entire equities market? Great beat but 0 FCF. That's a red flag.

foo-bar-nlogn-100

Decent valuations? They owe 125B to in leases. Information reported they were making only making 20% margins off H100. Other reports -70B total FCF until 2030. They either have to cancel deals or risk being huge debt load and no way to pay off the debt Its like you taking out a 5M mortgage on 100K income

MapleCat2021

Well said. JPM's recent paper is spot-on. https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/ideas-and-insights/is-ai-a-bubble-here-are-5-ways-to-find-out. At a recent conference, the head of Bain's real estate practice offered even more staggering numbers. The contraction in FCF of the hyperscalers is eye-popping: \~60% + of FCF committed to CapEx spend through 2030 by Meta, MSFT. And then there is Oracle. Publicly traded real estate is trading at a 25-year relative low. Pension fund allocations to RE are generally below target due to profound value contraction and redemptions over the past 5 years. It could be time to look at public REITs, in particular in industrial and retail, where OpEx creep and rent contraction are far less onerous than they are for office and multifamily.

iyankov96

It's extremely overpriced. It was at fair value at $150 a share in the middle of this year. Now it's the most expensive in its history in many aspects. Record Price/Sales, record EV/FCF, increasing CapEx means more of the income goes towards just maintaining their datacenters and infrastructure. Come back when it's trading at 4-5x sales.

AlwaysSilencedTruth

googl P/FCF is almost 50...

_hiddenscout

Not long, but seems interesting. It's hard to find battery names and BESS names that I want to invest in, since a lot aren't at valuations I like or even generating FCF. Just a lot of speculative stuff gets hit whenever there is going to be down turns in the market. There's a canadian name I came across that is kind of interesting, but marketcap/price might be too small to share, but they are opening a factory in the US soon and now becoming profitable.

Mobile_Breadfruit706

NFLX is overvalued from a FCF perspective and the drama around WBD acquisition puts me off. They may end up overpaying for it, too. HOOD also overvalued, and it’s a business with no moat. This would be my last choice among those three. AVGO is cheap at the moment given it’s FCF and near term growth projections. Long-standing partnership with Google on their TPUs which are gaining traction as an alternative to GPUs for AI applications. This would be my pick (indeed, I have picked a bunch of shares over the last couple of days).

Wowmuchrya

Meta is burning through its FCF faster than any hyperscaler and MSFT tied itself to ScamAI which it will need to bail out, so yea they don’t have any money for 3 year old neocloud gpu’s.

Leroy--Brown

Yeah I saw your DD. Believe it or not I read it. Why is PMI fcf higher, and why is their FCF growth qoq at a higher rate? Their conversion rate seems to not matter if their debt is unsustainably high compared to PMI and their FCF growth is immediately eaten up by that massive dividend

Cav829

Yeah, this has been the thing holding Shift4 back and the million dollar question as to whether and when the stock takes off. Investors want to see them start paying down that debt so all these FCF projections start coming true. They seem more interested in short-term acquisitions and stock buybacks. They might be right to do that in the long-term, but it has made figuring out the entry point for them a nightmare. And meanwhile they've got short-term headwinds with the hospitality industry in retraction. I still like the thesis behind the company, but it could be rocky until the likely catalyst of the World Cup.

Glittering_Water3645

The PE is wrong because of one-time injections. Look at P/OCF and P/FCF instead of exclude this.

Historical_Air_8997

I still like it, it’s grown to a pretty sizable position from my 4% allocation at $313. It’s close to 10% of that portfolio now, so I’m not adding. Honestly I’m not a fan at adding much at near highs regardless, but if I didn’t have a position I’d maybe buy 1/4-1/3 of my normal allocation. It’s still trading at like 25x FCF which isn’t bad for a company like medp. I think there may be some solid tailwinds with the new administration, may be more demand to navigate the changing rules. Also with lowing rates small biotechs will up their research and give business to medp.

ReserveDrunkDriver

I understand the sentiment that corporations are bad, however, what you are saying is literally the opposite of what is true. The CHIPS Act was specifically for the Micron (MU) NY, ID, and VA manufacturing facilities to expand the US supply chain for memory. MU & the USA are working together to increase the supply of memory for the US, which will ultimately lower the cost for the American people as production expands to meet demand. The money was not just "taken" it was an investment in which the US government will recoup their investment via profit share after helping the American people with the memory shortage. The asshole move by the best/largest US memory company would be if they refused to expand CAPEX/production and just turned the FCF machine on to create the most shareholder value.

Alarming-Maize-8611

It first started as a liberty media share arbitrage, but they raised their stake i presume for a few reasons. First, Sirius has meaningful Price to FCF ratio of approx. 6.3 That amount of cash flow for such a low valuation is pretty extraordinary. On top of that SiriusXM is buying back a meaningful amount of shares. This along with the dividend present a pretty strong ROE case for a large shareholder such as Berkshire. Im also guessing that they believe that even with fairly modest subscriber losses, the earnings and free cash flow story wont be meaningfully effected enough for it to matter. I also think that SIRI is making some pretty big moves in investing in content to refurbish its service for newer customers. Whether that works or not, time will tell. 2026 will be a consequential year for SIRI whether their strategy works out or not.

Valvador

> P/FCF is ~20× - the lowest it has ever been by a mile. Isn't 20x kind of high for a company of this type? What sector is Acorn Energy in? They seem to be utilizies/hardware, which historically sits at P/FCF of around 10x on average. [Source.](https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/ev-fcf-ratio-explained#:~:text=Table_title:%20Industry%20Benchmarks:%20Know%20Your%20Playing%20Field,Industry:%20Utilities%20%7C%20Typical%20EV/FCF:%208%2D15x%20%7C) Basically high margin businesses (like Software) are usually higher P/FCF or P/E.

PerfectInAllThings

Fundamentals, DCF, FCF, etc. mean nothing in this market. My responsible stocks averaged flat for the year. My speculative bs stocks made me a ton of money.

AlwaysSilencedTruth

they grow pretty fast, but they also dilute the fuck out of shareholders. FCF per share grew like 16% per year over the last 5 boomy years

AlwaysSilencedTruth

70x FCF multiple.. no

illinformed-will

AI post made with ChatGPT explaining OpenAi circle jerk is cooked. Oh the irony, love it 👌 Last resort will be dilution, now the norm for capex datacenter and fake FCF positive stocks. Wonder who will be willing to buy when it drop another 40% tho... Difference between "discount buy" and "next stop bankruptcy" will be hard to gauge on this one 🤦

karouse

The valuation is simply too high, it is trading at 90 P/E (42 forward),70 P/FCF, 28 P/S. At this valuation, I won't be surprised to see it drop on good earnings, it has so many things already priced in. Not to mention they have the problem of concentration of revenue from just a few top customers.

Fun_Corner_2954

I saw a comment in the daily thread that the dip occurred after it was said in the earnings report that VMware margins were slowing and that Hock Tan used the word "deterioration" to describe FCF for that business (or other?) unit.

plznodownvotes

The growth never really stopped. Market overreaction happens every so often (see AAPL when they stopped reporting iPhone sales, META when it dropped to like $70 and went on a non-stop 700% rally). The facts are that LULU is experiencing extremely rapid international growth with a bit of Americas slowdown. Has over $1bil in cash and increasing FCF, and no debt. I’m not going to mention its “competitors” that Redditors like to mention because they literally don’t matter and will almost likely go under in the next year. LULU’s lawsuit against Costco’s dupes tells you all you need to know about who they saw as competition.

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

Inevitable_Butthole

They have 10B + FCF when you put aside the AI capex But yeah, still not enough

Heineken_500ml

This market is going nowhere. COST trading at 100x FCF LMAO AVGO trading at 100 PE, chip sales can double but earning can't 5x LMAO LULU losing sales in NA 2% in a quarter, shrinking margins, shrinking EPS LMAO

Far-Travel-5206

ORCL’s miss definitely shakes the hype a bit.. negative FCF from AI spending is real money leaving the business. But the market might shrug it off if QE keeps liquidity high and AI excitement stays strong. Could be a short-term pause rather than a full rally killer.

Technical_Cry_5878

Oracle’s numbers highlight the tension in the AI trade: to stay relevant, everyone has to spend aggressively, but the capex surge temporarily wrecks free cash flow. ORCL missing revenue and posting negative FCF makes the market wonder how many quarters of this the big platforms can absorb before investors start questioning the “AI = infinite margins” narrative. The bigger question is whether this is a company-specific stumble or a preview of what happens when hyperscalers and enterprise players all hit the same capex wall. If multiple AI names start showing the same pattern, that’s when the rally becomes vulnerable. But policy can overshadow fundamentals. If the Fed drifts closer to QE-lite, liquidity alone can keep valuations elevated even while earnings get choppy. That’s why some analysts (think of the style of Ian King Microcap Convergence) focus more on liquidity cycles than quarter-by-quarter results. So in the near term, ORCL might not “break” the AI rally by itself, but it’s the kind of print that becomes important if a few more players confirm the same trend.

EntropyAccount

The point is you can buy a bond/MM fund with similar yield but there is no real upside potential beyond this yield. If things improve with the company the stock can return capital gains and the company can increase the dividend. If you want higher returns with higher risk - buy tech. If you can't stomach any losses buy risk-free. At this junction, CN has a stable yield at the risk-free rate with a p/e of 15-17, and generating FCF to reinforce the dividend. The current management team took on more debt than ever to buyback stock, and that bet didn't work out. RR typically get better ROIC by expanding rail capacity, not financial engineering. I think they felt pressured to do something because of the CPKC deal and constantly over guiding didn't help. I'm not a huge fan of the current team, but going forward it seems stabilized (grain shipments are at record highs too). Revenue is likely to increase marginally and the cost control measures are in place. Personally, I model this company to return a dividend of 2.5% and capital gain of 3-5% annually over the next few years if the economy grows 1-2%, tariffs remain in effect, and the US dollar does collapse. Weaker USD can lead to lower traffic. The downside is likely limited here, but obviously not guaranteed.

Mr-Dotties-Dad

Don’t point out NVIDIA’s FCF to OP.

samara_farrel

ORCL doing the classic ‘good on paper, ugly under the hood.’ RPO moon numbers look great until you realize FCF is evaporating faster than Larry Ellison’s patience. Feels like one of those quarters where the headlines pump it and the footnotes drag it. Not touching unless it stops pretending the AI boom automatically fixes everything.”

redpillsbluepills

You’re welcome. Still plenty of room to grow. PL has been FCF positive the last three quarters and continues to crush earnings QoQ. Space stocks in general are just beginning to moonshot. ASTS, RKLB, BKSY, etc. are the frontier of a new era. Idc what anyone else says. Look at how bullish the current administration is, including the FCC Chairman who expedited all of ASTS’ approvals. 2026 is going to be a huge year, and yes, I will admit I’m biased AF because I’m balls deep in this area.

JankyPete

AI data centers is a last ditch effort to say this slow dieing company. That FCF 🙈

WorkingCorrect1062

RPO is up so adding more worry for investors how ORCL is going to fund the infra capex. Basically, the stock is running on upside down logic. There is not other negative as such, FCF negative due to capex means lot of value investors are out.

No-Doctor9742

11x current FCF, heading to more like 5x FCF by mid 2026

rydenh99

In past corrections there was almost complete euphoria. People invested and didn't worry. They didn't even look at the market on a daily. There was complete faith that everything would just keep going up! That is not today's market. There is significant pessimism and concern. There are mini pull backs. Industry/sector scrutiny with investors moving between. All this is healthy! Does it mean the market will just go up? No. And everyone understands that. If earnings are strong, companies benefit. If a company has a mis step and can't support the valuation, expect a pullback. Do I expect the market, as a whole in 2026 to deliver the returns we enjoyed in 2025? No! But if I am invested in strong companies, executing well, delivering earnings to support the valuation and strong FCF, then I expect I will do better being invested in the market vs alternatives.

microdosingrn

FCF.

thri54

A mature industry is a natural competitive barrier that prevents new entrants. No one wants to invest the capital required to fight Autozone for a low growth market. FCF is higher, more like $2B. It looks like they’re on a spree of upgrades with how capex has exceeded depreciation in the last few years. Negative book equity isn’t a problem, per se. Frequently, it’s a sign of business strength when you can tap lenders deep below book equity value. E.g., Verisign, Planet Fitness, and Oracle all have (or had) strong free cash flow and high profit margins. This allowed them to borrow with unsecured at reasonable rates below their book equity. It’s only a problem when you also have high cost of debt or financial distress. IMO the stock value still looks a little rich. They had one of the best stock returns of the last 25 years — over 100x. Even though their profit growth was average, they perpetually traded at a low multiple and juiced returns through stock buybacks. I guess this new high multiple is the market correcting itself.

gatovision

In this bubble of ai/software they were actually a pretty good value play, trading at 6xs sales so thats a good pickup for something growing with good FCF. Theres more smaller software out there like that.

RNGesusDoesntLoveMe

If he was able to see the future dont you think he would have kept it? He sold a lot of it to buy worse companies. I know why he sold it, but it still reflected his lack of foresight or confidence. Each company must be evaluated independently and fairly. Its harder to cheat FCF and its there, there is no ai bubble. 

TJMBeav

These tech companies. Going from low capital, higher than fuck margins and historic FCF. To vertically integrated, high capital, cash sucking data center companies. Brilliant

Vegetable-Bug-9779

Meaning they have $19B cash and $25b debt. They generated $5.85B FCF last quarter while paying dividends and buying back shares. Market cap is $642B. They can pay all their debt next quarter if they want to.

Routine-District-588

Metaverse is a shit show, yes it will be a sunk cost. they burnt like 17B on the metaverse last year. The market didn't like that FCF being down q3 2025 on q3 2024. This wil change with money big chunk of money from the metaverse moving to Ai spend or to buybacks.

Maakus

There are many stock analysis sites that provide insider trading with names of insiders. He has been selling like this for the whole year. It's hard to invest when executives have so many shares and stock based comp. This company takes all of its 3% FCF and gives it to employees. Thats what makes it risky so buyer beware. [Heres the last ten insider trades. ](https://imgur.com/a/c4qV75f)

PTRBoyz

I loaded the boat on META AMZN TSLA during the panic the past couple of weeks. Those were my focus stocks for 2026 (alongside GOOGL and UNH which I already own). I entered into starter positions in RBRK and PATH (very small position honestly, they need to show growth accelerating and and DBNR over 120% for me to be real bullish, but just gamble sized) today which I think could end up being good winners next year (both should get bought out).  I’m also eying BA as a value play now that they’re flipping FCF positive. And would buy RL for some non tech exposure if it consolidated or corrects a little. 

Rude_Judgment7928

Gotta keep the debt pile growing to keep that FCF for share buybacks to keep exec compensation as high as possible.

Strawforce57

Focus your prompts on structure, sources, and falsifiability rather than “give me picks”: e.g., “You are a buy‑side analyst, break down {SECTOR} in plain English: 3 secular growth drivers vs 3 cyclical headwinds; 5 KPIs experts track (define each); key regulatory/supply‑chain risks; and a table of the top 10 holdings of {SECTOR ETF} with 3‑yr revenue CAGR, FCF margin, net debt/EBITDA, ROIC.” Then: “Using {SECTOR ETF} constituents, rank a top‑5 by a transparent composite, growth 40%, profitability 30%, balance sheet 20%, valuation 10%, show your math and uncertainty.” For single names: “Explain {TICKER}, give 5 bull/5 bear points, 3 catalysts with ‘what would falsify this?’ indicators, and red‑team the thesis.” I sanity‑check LLM output with a simple signal dashboard like **Prospero.ai’s** 10 signals (0–100) to avoid pretty‑sounding narratives; you still make the call (NFA).

1Mby20201212

This is a volatile stock sure but it’s been falling since September. If you are buying it 2 weeks in after the big dip, you need to wait a lot more for this pay off. Especially since your breakeven price is +30% off. Price that far off is unreachable unless there is a major catalyst and you have not put that in the reasoning other than FCF. Not for me I guess.

TJMBeav

FCF is what counts

thri54

Operating income was down 40% YoY in 2022. It was lower than FY 2020, too. Reality Labs’ loss had increased from $6.6B in 2020 to $13.7B in 2022. Free cash flow halved year over year, primarily because capex jumped 66% in 2022. Most of that money was investment for Reality labs. FCF was the lowest it had been since 2018. Family of apps was still highly profitable, but reality labs was weighing heavily on their consolidated financial picture. It rebounded because Zuckerberg cut RL’s spending.

TJMBeav

Revenue of $20B, $14.4B debt, FCF $2.2B Buy it

TJMBeav

Data center problems with power are just now starting to bite. Why do you think they all just raised capital? They are getting to close to being FCF negative

TheDonFulio

My math doesn’t make sense? Why? Because it doesn’t fit your narrative? 2020 12.87 billion (15.2%) 2021 15.8 billion (22.67%) 2022 17.61 billion (11.54%) 2023 19.41 billion (10.24%) 2024 21.51 billion (10.8%) 2026 projected 25.87 billion (9.21%). Your math skills are severely lacking or you’re saying bullshit because of your bias. That’s deceleration of 30-50% with revenue over the last five years. In regard to free cash flow—did you even check the financial statement? You can clearly see net income jumped from unusual items. It’s a crazy outlier from the previous years which explains the “FCF growth” if you normalize it like any sane investor would. Then no-they did not grow FCF at 47% Lastly, spending all their FCF on buybacks with deceleration is ADBEs management waving the white flag. They spent 12 billion on stock buybacks with 5 billion SBC adjusted free cash flow. What the actual F? That’s more than double what they make. That won’t continue. Plus, buying back 20% of stock over the next 2 years is 10% returns a year. Which brings me back to the point. Buy the SP500 for the same or better returns with much much less risk.

NVDA_Gaped_Me

That recovery is dependent on Zuck not blowing through all their FCF on projects that aren't proven returns on investment.

TheMarketMenace

-45% YoY quarterly revenue growth -139.61% Profit Margin -25.59% operating margin (ttm) -1.98B operating FCF these are just some things I noticed at a quick glance. it looks like they need a hail mary miracle at this point.

dbasea

Looks more like a repricing of leverage and rate risk as Oracle front loads AI capex with thinner near term FCF and Cerner drag, so watch FCF-to-interest, net leverage, the maturity ladder, and CDS vs peers to judge crack vs cycle noise; you can find more at mr-profit com.

Glittering_Water3645

Nvidia have a good estimated EPS growth for next year but that will decline fast in the coming years. AMD is projected to accelerate their growth and surpass nvidia in growth from mid-2026. AMD is cheaper in forward PE and PEG for earnings from 2027 and onwards. TSM is traded higher in terms of PEG because they have a lower current valuation (higher OCF and FCF yield) and also deliver to broadcom and google, which makes it a less volatile investment. If broadcom or google takes market share from nvidia and AMD then TSM still wins.

jubilantBeatbox

# Financial Health & Ratios Based on the most recent financial data available (as of **November 14, 2024**, Yahoo Finance and Simply Wall St): || || |Metric|Value (as of Nov 2024)| |**Market Cap**|\~$9.11M (intraday)| |**Enterprise Value (EV)**|$6.48M| |**Cash on Hand (mrq)**|$3.43M| |**Current Assets vs. Liabilities**|Not fully disclosed, but short-term assets exceed liabilities per WallStreetZen \[July 24, 2025\]| |**Long-term Debt**|Not disclosed; Debt/Equity ratio not available| |**Debt-to-Equity Ratio**|Not available (marked as "--")| |**Interest Expense**|Not disclosed| |**EPS (TTM)**|**-$1.82**| |**Return on Equity (ROE)**|**-1,191.73%**| |**Net Margin**|**-47.28%**| |**Book Value**|Not available| |**Market-cap-to-cash ratio**|\~2.66x ($9.11M / $3.43M)| |**Annual Cash Burn**|\~$4.51M (Levered FCF TTM)| |**Estimated Cash Runway**|\~9–10 months (based on $3.43M cash and \~$4.51M annual burn)| The company is **not profitable**, with negative EPS and ROE, and has **missed earnings expectations** in multiple recent quarters (Q1, Q3 2025). The **forecast breakeven date has been pushed back to 2027** \[Simply Wall St, Oct 5, 2024\], and there are **going-concern warnings** implied by negative equity and cash burn.

jubilantBeatbox

# Financial Health & Ratios Based on the most recent financial data available (as of **November 14, 2024**, Yahoo Finance and Simply Wall St): || || |Metric|Value (as of Nov 2024)| |**Market Cap**|\~$9.11M (intraday)| |**Enterprise Value (EV)**|$6.48M| |**Cash on Hand (mrq)**|$3.43M| |**Current Assets vs. Liabilities**|Not fully disclosed, but short-term assets exceed liabilities per WallStreetZen \[July 24, 2025\]| |**Long-term Debt**|Not disclosed; Debt/Equity ratio not available| |**Debt-to-Equity Ratio**|Not available (marked as "--")| |**Interest Expense**|Not disclosed| |**EPS (TTM)**|**-$1.82**| |**Return on Equity (ROE)**|**-1,191.73%**| |**Net Margin**|**-47.28%**| |**Book Value**|Not available| |**Market-cap-to-cash ratio**|\~2.66x ($9.11M / $3.43M)| |**Annual Cash Burn**|\~$4.51M (Levered FCF TTM)| |**Estimated Cash Runway**|\~9–10 months (based on $3.43M cash and \~$4.51M annual burn)| The company is **not profitable**, with negative EPS and ROE, and has **missed earnings expectations** in multiple recent quarters (Q1, Q3 2025). The **forecast breakeven date has been pushed back to 2027** \[Simply Wall St, Oct 5, 2024\], and there are **going-concern warnings** implied by negative equity and cash burn.

No-Doctor9742

its not contracting revenue they are growing while trashing the donuts in grocery store regardation … they are growing. FCF positive and can manage their debt. They arent absolutely crushing it - but they shouldnt be sub 7x ‘26 FCF. There ya go^

Upstairs_Whole_580

Well, I don't know how long they can sustain it, but they're going to have a MONSTER year next year. They'll have 250B+ in FCF in F'27. At THAT point, there has to be more of a return on investment or at least we have to be moving closer to one outside of just AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL. I'd say the next decade of AAPL is safer. The next Decade of NVDA has more upside and more downside(much more of both). But the next \~18 months... that should easily be NVDA.

kaapooj

Boeing sees FCF 'closer to' 2B Boeing CFO says $10B long-term cash goal attainable Boeing CFO sess recovery 'in full force' BA +3.25% in the last 2 minutes lol

GringottsWizardBank

Because they are going to implement Gemini and they didn’t have to blow through years of FCF to do it.

synthetic350

AAPL’s FCF has been stagnating for like 16 quarters yet still hitting ATH’s

GringottsWizardBank

More like Apple doesn’t want to blow through years of FCF to do what its business partner, GOOG, is already doing. I love how it’s bearish sentiment for a company to not spend $100$+ building out infrastructure with no obvious ROI.

barrybadhoer

I was about to say, cormedix is criminally undervalued with a EV/FCF of like 3-4 and a rapidly growing business. One of my biggest holdings

nickpapa88

I get the concern, but I think the competitive picture is more nuanced. Lilly’s drugs may show stronger efficacy on some metrics, but the GLP-1 market isn’t winner-take-all — it’s supply-constrained, demand is global, and switching costs for patients are extremely sticky. Novo doesn’t need to be the best drug to compound; it just needs to continue being one of the two dominant suppliers in a market where demand massively exceeds capacity. As for pricing power and margins, those are determined by payers and regulators, not consumer choice, and both companies are still negotiating from a position of strength. Growth is slowing from extraordinary to normal, but FCF, margins, and global penetration still support long-term compounding. Being first to scale — not just first to market — is a moat that doesn’t decay nearly as fast as people assume. Either way you don’t “print cash” on stock price — stock is associated with sentiment and hype. The core finances prove that novo is a financial stalwart even if you personally like their competition better.

mdatwood

One of NVDA's biggest customers is OpenAI who has ~1.4T in total commitments lined up. There is a real question if OpenAI will be able to satisfy all its commitments and therein lies one of the big risks to NVDA. MS, Google, and Amazon are less likely to back out, but if the FCF spend does not start to generate real returns, shareholders will start demanding the money go elsewhere. Also, NVDA is not talking about 500B in AR, but expected orders or as their CFO was quoted "visibility on $500 billion in revenue from the beginning of the year to the end of 2026" [1]. Honestly, this feels a bit like trying too hard to keep the stock propped up with weasel words. I say all this as someone who is fairly bullish on AI overall, but it's hard to ignore that NVDA is riding a knifes edge. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-reports-strong-guidance-ai-220009255.html

himynameis_

Ya know. It's fair to say that yes, ASICs are doing different things from Nvidia GPUs and CUDA. However. It is already a customer concentration risk for Nvidia that a big majority of their revenue is from 5 customers. And also that 3 of those xustomers, (AWS, google, Microsoft) are actively developing their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Not only that. There was a financial Times article recently showing that 39% of Microsoft cloud backlog is for OpenAI, 58% for Oracle, and 16% for Amazon. So, it just seems a bit chunk of the spend on Nvidia chips is going to OpenAI somehow. And anthropic is probably 2nd place. So, my concern is. The customer concentration, plus customer making their own chips, plus a big chunk of cloud customer demand being OpenAI/Anthropic...there's just a lot of concentration there. And, if OpenAI implodes due to all the commitments they're making, it would put some hurt into Nvidia short-term. However. Forward estimates suggest that forward PE for Nvidia is ~26. Which is quite low for something like Nvidia that is firing on all cylinders. They have purchase commitments for $500B for Blackwell+Rubin. I believe it was over 5 quarters but someone on Reddit said 2 years. Either way, assuming TTM FCF margin that's ~$200B in FCF for 1 year, roughly. Up from the ~$70B range in TTM. It's just... Nvidia needs to execute right now and they're firing on all cylinders. But there's risks here imo. Not sure how you're getting the $260 and $210 numbers.

Macready123

They are all crappy compared to PM miners that actually make money, look at their FCF. In U land, $CCJ as the poster child is insanely expensive already. I do like Uranium though.

Doctor_Raymos

What are you talking about? Hyperscalers have explicitly stated they do not fund capex through FCF alone. They also fund it through existing operating cash flow, which is extremely stable. Hyperscaler FCF fluctuates quarter to quarter because these companies choose to invest aggressively, not because cash generation is weakening. These firms do not need consistently flat FCF to maintain high capex, and they never have.

Monkey_1505

The question isn't whether FCF is a one off pool of money, it's whether it's being replenished at a rate that is => than spend. It currently isn't. I'd certainly be interesting in the AI specific capex numbers if you have them? (Note, it being often mixed together I think is actually usually for making the argument more favourable for sustainability, due to non-ai historical expansion)

Doctor_Raymos

Hyperscaler FCF is not a one-off pool of money, they run capex cycles that grow, not shrink. The idea that they "run out" in 1-2 years misunderstands how hyperscalers budget. That 300B is an indicator you are just regurgitating what you hear, because it is the total hyperscaler capex across ALL infrastructure. Only a fraction of it is related to Nvidia. Capex also does not vanish next year. Again, total capex has increased over the past 10 years, not decreased. Every company involved says explicitly this is a multi-year investment cycle. Not a single one suggests it stops in 2026. The idea that spending falls off a cliff contradicts every single earnings call. Beyond this, Nvidia is actively diversifying beyond hyperscalers and dependence is shrinking, not growing. Even if AI demand stayed flat (it isn't), Nvidia is already properly diversified to give ample parachute to leverage revenue lost from hyperscalers.

Monkey_1505

Well if we are talking Nvidia, revenues primarily come from finite, quickly depleting hyperscaler FCF. Which is likely the much bigger issue than revenue padding. I tend to think the depreciation argument is supportive rather than primary.

JesusBoughtPuts

Everyone who trades Micron off trailing FCF misses the entire upcycle. it’s been the same story for 20 years. Good luck with your investing

Hot-Fox-8797

Sector allocation: FCF yield. Cash doesn’t lie Early warning sign: very sector dependent. there are lots. Aside from obvious ones like wage growth unemployment sentiment etc. following credit card data can be helpful