FCF

TheConstellationGuy

Since market caps are nearly identical, I’ll take CSUs 3B Q3 revenue and 529M FCFA2S over RDDTs 585M revenue and 183M FCF. Not to mention 20 years of best in class capital allocation, 0 shareholder dilution, and Warren Buffett level management. Still like Reddit as a platform, but makes 0 sense as a stock at these prices.

_hiddenscout

So screening just gives you idea to jump from. This is gearing towards GARP, growth at a responsible price. Looking at APP, valuation doesn't look too bad from a PEG level, but the PS, PB, and PC is pretty high. Second step is I run the name through quickfs like [https://quickfs.net/company/APP:US](https://quickfs.net/company/APP:US) I like to see the trend of ROIC, EPS growth, Margins and Revenue from here. I also like to look at FCF growth [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/app/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=quarterly](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/app/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=quarterly) Which there looks pretty solid. I actually use like an LLM to run a DFC as well to see what the instrict value of the company is. So APP is just an interesting name, since some things look expensive while other look good. To me, this is a hard company to get a gauge on, so personally, I would just pass on it. Doesn't mean it's a bad investment or anything, but if I can't get a good grasp, I don't have confidence to buy. I also don't know much about the ad markets as well.

FeelTheEarporn

I’m saying that the other clients do not generate enough FCF to pay for an risky capex build out… but it seems you do not understand FCF

Mariox

If you really want to understand PLTR's possible growth you will need to make a spreadsheet and project their growth. PLTR uses GOOG and MSFT cloud compute to run their AI for their customers. For the last 3-4 years they have not needed to increase employee count and invest in more office space because they are increasing growth by deploying their AI faster using less employee hours. 3 years ago it took a large team and 3-6 months to deploy to 1 customer. Now it takes 2 employees and 1-2 weeks. Eventually PLTR will only need AI to deploy their AI to customers. Even PLTR bulls are stuck looking at Gov contracts for growth, but the real growth is coming from commercial. Customer growth on a TTM basis (QoQ is lumpy) has increased 50% from Q3 to Q3. Revenue growth from existing commercial customers (customers older then 12 months) was 34% up from 18% a year ago. All the commercial customers are increasing their spending YoY without any capex spending or costs to PLTR. The more customers PLTR get the faster revenue growth becomes. PLTR is a SaaS business where customers continue to spend more and more over time. This means growth in $s will always be higher QoQ. You can't look at analyst's projections for growth. They currently have 42% growth for 2026 and expect revenue to be lower in Q1 which isn't realistic. PLTR is a pure software company where spending goes to employees to grow not capex spending. here is my expectations for PLTR. Q4 will be 70% revenue growth, FCF margin over 52%. 2026 conservative guidance of 60-65% (and will end the year over 85% growth) revenue for 2026 of $8.2 billion. I have not put much thought into 2027 yet but I currently have $14 billion revenue for 2027. Karp a year ago said US revenue would 10x over 5 years. If that actually happened it would mean $44.5 billion revenue in 2029. Capex spending is a good indication of future company growth, but not for a pure software company like PLTR. PLTR isn't cheap, it may not be overvalued but there could be more flat quarters to allow growth to catch up. Companies **NEED** AI to improve earnings and as of now no competition comes close to how good PLTR is. If you want to better understand PLTR, start listening to their earnings calls and whenever Karp talks and what companies who use PLTR say about it.

MitchCurry

A couple IPOs coming down the pike, neither of which are garbage data center REITs or some crypto exchange bullshit. Bobs Discount Furniture, Inc. (BOBS) is looking to IPO at a range of $17 to $19/sh. At the midpoint, that'd raise $350MM at a valuation of $2.35B. In FY24, they reported revenue of $2.03B, basically flat from 2023 and down \~4% from 2022. GP% was 47% in FY24 while OI% was \~6%. Net income was $87.9MM (4% NI margin). Net income did rise while revenue stagnated. They're also FCF positive. YTD Q3'25 looks much better than YTD Q3'24 so they may have re-accelerated topline growth. Balance sheet is meh. They took out $350MM in debt late last year in order to pay Bain Capital, owner of the company who bought it in 2014, a dividend that exceeded $400MM. Part of the IPO funds are allocated towards paying back that debt. Company plans to expand from 200 locations to 500+ by 2035. Anecdata from the pre-Bain days: As a native northeasterner, reports of poor customer service and bad deliveries were accurate. I'm bought some furniture from them one time a couple decades ago and never did again. No interest in this company. Also on the IPO docket, Once Upon A Farm, PBC (OFRM), the company co-founded (sort of) by Jennifer Garner that runs a *lot* of commercials. Also looking to go public at a range of $17-$19/sh, the midpoint would raise almost $200MM and value the company at \~$725MM. Revenue was $156.8MM in 2024, up 66% from 2023 ($94.3MM), which itself was up 42% from 2022 ($66.3MM). They are losing money on an operating income level, -$15.3MM in 2023 and -$6.3MM in 2024. Bottom line losses total $40MM over the past 2 full years. FCF was negative at -$9.5MM in 2023 and -$14MM in 2024. Balance sheet is fine. Baby food made up 26% of 2023 sales with kid food being the other 74%. That changed to 33% and 67%, respectively, in 2024. Through H1 of 2025, revenue was up 68% to $110.6MM. However, SG&A increased by 70%. Like I said, they run a *lot* of commercials. Operating losses accelerated from -$3MM to -$9.2MM and net losses jumped from -$4.2MM to -$28.5MM. I'm not really interested in OFRM either but I could see it being an acquisition candidate pretty early in its public life. Neither company tickles my fancy but I always love when new companies come public.

_hiddenscout

Still thinking of taking a position. Some news out of Europe wanting more wind power.  CDLR is in the heavy capex cycle building the new ships. So valuation is pretty cheap. I think they should start being FCF positive this year or next.  Very interesting company. 

Visual_Breadfruit_39

UNH dropping 16% looks like a gift, but the fundamentals are actually degrading. I ran the numbers through scoring model and it’s only a 59/100 because of the MLR spike. If you want to see the specific data points I'm looking at (FCF yield vs CMS rates), here is full analysis: [https://ainvestor.biz/stock/UNH](https://ainvestor.biz/stock/UNH)

FeelTheEarporn

Bro, Oracle has a negative FCF their current business does not generate enough cash to sustain it cash outlay. They have very real den obligations and need to come up with capex upfront before they see any revenue realisation that will flow down to maintain said debt. And debt is over equity in cash waterfall. That’s why bonds trade lower and cds volume increase. The company needs to use a shit ton on capex spending and there are increasing risk that open AI will fail and not commercialise quick enough. So there is a possibility that you as a shareholder get fuck return on this data centre build out . ORACLE other business cannot sustain the debt cost of this AI bet if it goes wrong

FeelTheEarporn

Still their credit rating is shit. As analyst recommend to buy fucking CDS. 6 months after issue and they trade at High yield rates wtf. Something has missed the memo, IG raiting allows for pensions etc to invest, they are not allowed to invest in high yield, how come they suddenly became high yield? To much LOI , high debt load, capex before revenues etc , credit is rating is wrong , mismatch of cf Combined with negative FCF

trade_ranks

Good write-up. A few data points from my snapshot that support the “two-sided” risk framing: Alphabet is near its 52-week highs (close **\~333** vs **\~340** high) after a strong run (**\~+74% 6M**), but short-term momentum has started to fade (**MACD below signal**, negative histogram; **stochastic bearish cross**). On fundamentals, the picture is strong but not “free”: **TTM revenue \~$385.5B**, **net income \~$124.3B**, **FCF \~$73.6B (\~19% margin)**, with **capex \~$77.9B**—so the capex ramp is real and helps explain why valuation sensitivity increases at this price. Where I’d slightly refine your point: it’s less “hidden risk” and more “expectations risk”—premium multiples (**P/E \~31.9, EV/EBITDA \~27.6; FCF yield \~1.9%**) mean the stock is priced for sustained execution. Any short-term deceleration, especially in ad or cloud, tends to matter more when you’re already at the top of the range. Not financial advice—just discussion based on public data.

theJimmybob

$ZM will go bonkers tomorrow. Anthropic investment not baked in... $110+. [$ZM](https://x.com/search?q=%24ZM&src=cashtag_click) is a $28 bil company with $8 bil in cash and no debt... so pretty much 28% of its valuation is in cash. Add to it the fact that it is also generating nearly $2 bil in FCF on a yearly basis and you have an insane fundamental story. Couple that with the anthropic investment and its most recent earnings with signs of a growth turnaround and you have a Molotov cocktail waiting for a lighter...

CanYouPleaseChill

Intel FCF: -4.9B Netflix FCF: +9.5B

MitchCurry

Still trading above it's 1Y and 3Y average P/S and P/GP. Still trading at 80x FCF if you want to use that metric. I won't even look at P/E since it's stupid high and they aren't optimized for it. Not sure I'd call it cheap, forget calling it really cheap.

Rubiscon95

FCF multiple is at 13 or so. Expect a rerate to 20 plus FCF is going to expand thanks to rising metal prices. I expect Barrick and Newmont to go up another 75% by the end of 2026. Being a europoor, I don't have access to many options. I dropped 10k in european style calls, expiring in 18/09/26, strike price of $58.5 https://preview.redd.it/g3vu8vl8dqfg1.png?width=1706&format=png&auto=webp&s=c28dcb48953ff43dcea659b4f1cb8db7fa224d4e

Fabulous-Tadpole4543

7.26% YoY and FCF is coming in at 6-7B, that a price to FCF of 9.

Strange-Scene4110

Merger with a FCF giant this week. Its valuation is trading well below peers, despite it being among the highest quality junior producers. Safe jurisdiction (US & CA). Going to be added to indexes soon. High short %. I could go on.

kameeleun

While all miners are leveraged to the price of the metal, it's actually the higher cost producers that are the most leveraged to the commodity prices. For instance, suppose you had two silver miners A and B that both mine the same number of ounces a year. A is a low cost producer with costs of $10/ounce mined and B is a higher cost producer with costs $40/ounce mined. At 50 dollar silver A makes 40 dollars per ounce FCF and B makes 10 dollars per ounce FCF. Then say the price of silver doubles to 100 dollars. A makes 90 dollars per ounce FCF and B makes 60 dollars per ounce FCF now. 2x price of silver resulted in 2.25x FCF for A vs 6x FCF for B. Both miners are leveraged to the silver price, but B is more leveraged.

pink_ego_box

PE doesn't mean anything with recent price surges. Get Gemini to calculate their FCF at current prices and compare to their market caps minus debt. You're in for a ride.

UndercoverOptions

PYPL has a solid balance sheet. Current/quick ratio at 1.34 means no liquidity issues, debt/equity at 0.60 is very manageable, and cash flow looks strong with P/FCF under 10. Profitability backs it up too (ROE 24%, ROIC 15%, margins near 20%), so they’re funding growth without piling on debt. Overall I feel is a low financial risk, well-run balance sheet, more of a market/volatility story than a balance-sheet problem. I worry about long term. These type of companies will be obsoleted as AI takes over. Need to watch that it’s moat don’t shrink over time. This really is my only worry about this company. It should be $70.

Artistic_Scheme8402

Main point: ratios are just shortcuts, they only work if you tie them back to actual business outcomes and capital needs. I like your framework, but I’d bolt on a few things: – For moats, I’d look at how often customers actually switch in practice (churn, NRR) not just “high switching costs” on paper. A lot of so‑called wide moats fall apart when a recession hits and buyers renegotiate. – PEG is decent, but I’d sanity‑check it with FCF yield + realistic long‑term growth. Analyst EPS growth assumptions 3–5 years out are often fantasy. – On unprofitable names, P/S under 10 can still be brutal if the sales are low‑margin or heavily subsidized by SBC. I track SBC as % of revenue to see how much “growth” is being paid for in shares. – For survival, I’d include off‑balance sheet stuff: lease obligations, rev‑share deals, and hidden capex. For tooling, Koyfin or TIKR are great for quick margin and cash runway checks, and platforms like Carta or Cake Equity help you see how dilution from future raises might actually hit you. Main point: cheap vs expensive is less about the multiple and more about whether the underlying economics and dilution math line up with the story.

HealthySeesaw5981

Generally speaking yes if you take the average of 5yr, but you are counting COVID, and that's just ansmall part of the story. If you think about YoY, HPQ had positive revenue just last year 2025, driven by AI PC push (new OmniBook/EliteBook lines at CES 2026 could help). The company still generates serious cash (~$2.9B FCF in 2025, similar expected in 2026), the ~6% dividend + buybacks. Dirt-cheap valuation (~6-7x FCF, EV/Sales ~0.55x vs. historical average). If PC demand stabilizes or AI upgrades kick in, it could surprise to the upside (analyst targets average ~$29, implying 40-50%+ from current ~$19-20 levels). Remember the renewing cycles are longer now, not exactly the company fault, but are still going to happen in some waves, when some significant requirements arise, for example, Windows 10 support just died and Windows 11 requirements are much higher.. HPQ is also investing in some new technologies and even trying to sell some cloud services.

microdosingrn

Long time meta bull here, relatively large position, and optimistic. Problem is that Zuck built a bottomless money printer, but he keeps nuking their FCF on moonshots and science fiction shenanigans. If he would just sit back and let the money printer work... Or at least keep the moon shot projects to fiscally responsible levels, their eps would take off to the stratosphere. They have something like 50% of the global population as DAU and 80%+ gross margins.

pink_ego_box

Not a miner. It's a streaming company. Look up AYA for example. Current annual FCF is 6x enterprise value (market cap minus debt). That's even if prices don't move anymore this year (doubtful) and production does not increase (improbable, they have a buttload of tailings ready to be leeched they kept for a time where metal prices would rise).

pink_ego_box

Def not. Just ask Gemini to calculate FCF at current metal prices, constant production volumes and constant costs (oil is the main one and it's low as fuck). Then compare to market cap. You'll find most trade at 3-5X annual FCF. It'd be like buying Nvidia at $20 now.

pink_ego_box

Precious Metal miners will report billions in FCF and go to the moon

SelfMadeChillionare

Check out Mako Mining Corp. They are backed by Wexford Capital, same equity sponsor of Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG), and have very promising plans for the next couple years. Great operational performance, solid FCF yield and no debt as of Q4 2025. Super under the radar, perhaps a bit on the riskier side but definitely tons of upside if they manage to succeed in their prospects.

Negative_Win_5117

Steady earnings growth projected, strong FCF, billions in share buybacks, introduced a dividend, trading at low PE. It’s a great setup at the current price. It all hinges on headlines coming out of the earnings call.

MitchCurry

I have what for me is a full position so I only add opportunistically. I think it's a fair price right now but wouldn't add unless it got below $30. It's a very low margin business. Their international expansion, which started slowly with Canada a couple years ago, keeps my interest. Their recent foray into physical vet clinics leaves me lukewarm. I guess I like the idea of eventually being able to offer all the services a pet owner would want but I'd prefer they focus on international expansion. They are profitable now though ($393MM in net income in 2024 and $452MM in FCF) but net income has shrank through Q3 as COGS. As long as management allocates funds responsibly, I'll continue to hold my shares and add at great opportunities.

_hiddenscout

I think they are actually profitable now. And last three quarters are seeing good FCF growth too: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/chwy/financials/cash-flow-statement/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/chwy/financials/cash-flow-statement/) Noticed a trend with some names that over the last or two that have become profitable and been on solid runs.

l3onk1n

The cost of a stock is based upon future expectations and company's ability to meet them. Micron has crazy expectations set upon them that claims they will double their revenue in a year. They can only do that if they sell their chips for double the price, which will not happen since price growth is really slowing down, or they increase their capacity, which they constantly claim to be unable to do (and they don't really want to) Also, P/E works like shit with micron. They can be -20/20, -90, 150 and all within the same year. There's no point of looking at historic P/E from a company that works on near zero or even negative EPS and FCF for up to a year. Historically their Forward P/E is double of what it was at the previous all time high, which was during the biggest semicon stock bull run of the last 3 years.

pink_ego_box

Well they produce silver at $20 costs and gold at $1900. Nobody's ready for the ginormous Q4 earnings coming and that was at $55 silver and $3500 gold LMAO It's easy to calculate those companies FCF at constant production rates. They're the highest margin industry by far now.

Friendly-Excuse400

It is shame what happened with Sears. Eddie Lampert essentially shredded the company and burdened it with so much debt to pay himself that they bleed red ink for years until they went BK. KSS is not the same IMO. First, very few of their properties are mall based. Most are either stand alone stores or part of retail strip of stores where they are the only department store. Second, their long term debt is very low at $1.6B while generating $1.2B of EBITDA. Shorts will say the debt is closer to $7B but they don’t recognize that this is mostly leases that are paid from expenses and not free cash flow. It is also offset on the asset side of the ledger. Lastly, as KSS is profitable and FCF positive, their book value continues to grow every year as opposed to Sears which was a shrinking iceberg that melted away.

Inside_Tour_1408

The FTSE has some great opportunities: RR, AZN, MKS and RMV among them RMV - Rightmove is the largest UK property website, \~80% market share, 19 P/E, rising FCF and falling debt over the past 5 years, £5mil in debt and £40mil in cash, and rejected a takeover bid with 50% upside in 2024 The UK govt have also just passed a law ending minimum tenancies for renters allowing for a more fluid rental market and more eyeballs on the website

_hiddenscout

Haven't dug too much into SAP, but has been on the screener for a minute. PEG is now under 1 and still growing nicely QoQ with pretty solid gross margins and good ROIC. I need to dig more into them. I think you are pretty close to intrinsic value or not a bit under. 100% really interesting name right now. It's part of why I just bought DOCS. One of the big reasons was how much they are growing FCF right now. FCF last two quarters grew like 48% and then 43% while the stock keeps dropping in price. [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/docs/financials/cash-flow-statement/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/docs/financials/cash-flow-statement/)

pink_ego_box

Nice. I went full port when metals crashed in October. Such an obvious play. Most are trading a 5x FCF. That's like buying Nvidia at $20 today

_hiddenscout

$GE | GE Aerospace Q4 2025 Earnings  - Adj EPS $1.57 (est $1.43)  - Adj. Rev. $11.87B (est $11.21B)  - Adj FCF $1.16B (est $1.36B)  - Commercial Engines & Services Rev. $9.47B (est $8.95B)  - Sees 2026 Adj EPS $1.10 To $7.40 (est $1.10)  - Sees 2026 Adj Free Cash Now $88 To $8.48 (est $8.01B)

pink_ego_box

Tomorrow the plan is to see my gold and miner calls keep rising. Port already up +90% in 20 days. Bought a few more far OTM CDE and SILJ calls during the dip today. Kind reminder that most precious metal miners trade under 10x yearly FCF and that makes them an absurdely cheap investment with potential for 10-20x baggers.

adizzle2517

Come up with an idea of industries that you believe have a future. You’ll want to invest in something that you believe in and won’t freak out if it drops x%. Patience is key, follow your research and don’t chase FOMO. I use ChatGPT a ton and if you give it good prompts, make sure to keep it honest of current prices etc. then you can get list of potential companies and start deep diving from there. I’ve used it to go deep on junior miners and honed in on 2-3 solid plays (BHLL, SVRSF, TLOFF) I can largely ignore and sleep well at night. Ask prompts/questions about peer comparisons on market cap, dilution, leadership pedigree, institutional ownership, outstanding warrants, and even projected share price based on catalysts, NPV, FCF etc.

Negative_Win_5117

That doesn’t mean anything. Markets care about future earnings and FCF.

_hiddenscout

Wonder if it might be time to jump back into DOCS. Own them in the past and has been a real loser of recent. Valuation isn't the worst here, just has some overhang on them. However, one thing I love is that they basically have no debt, high ROIC, and pretty sick gross margins at like 90%. Also great FCF growth the last few quarters.

_hiddenscout

No position in the company, but going to look more into, PRGS is having a great day after earnings. \* FY25 strongest year: $978M revenue (+30%), $5.72 EPS (+16%). Exceeded original guidance. \* Q4: $253M revenue (+18%), $1.51 EPS (above guidance). \* ARR: $852M (+2%), 100% net retention. \* ShareFile integration successful, Nuclea added value. \* AI focus: new capabilities, customer wins. \* FY26 Guidance: $1B revenue (high-end), \~$320M unlevered FCF (midpoint). Expect \~2% ARR growth. \* M&A: Active, disciplined approach. Infrastructure SW vendors with strong customer base sought. Selectivity emphasized. \* Balance Sheet strong, debt being paid down. \* Expense control & AI adoption improving productivity. Low attrition. \* Operating margin guided flat for FY26 due to investments. This is why I think some SaaS is still worth looking into and holding on and really going to have to wait until earnings before the market changes it mind.

pink_ego_box

Fresnillo (silver miner) is currently valued at 4X free yearly cash flow. That's like buying Nvidia at $12 a share today. Pan American Silver is at 5x. That would be Nvidia at $18. The three largest gold miners are at 10X FCF. That's like buying Nvidia at $35 today. LEAPS on those is basically a free ticket to early retirement.

pink_ego_box

https://preview.redd.it/jznv3tti0peg1.jpeg?width=2358&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=861253278ee478d374517a9c1a68bf82f6cf1074 The US market is only propped up by cheap debt. But there's no cheap debt when your creditors dump your bonds. Read the room. Don't get caught with your pants down holding heavy Mag7 bags. Gold miners are still trading at 5-10X FCF. That would be like buying NVDA at 15-20 today.

fredditf

$NFLX | Netflix Q4’25 Earnings Highlights 🔹 Revenue: $12.05B (Est. $12B) 🟡; +18% YoY 🔹 EPS: $0.56 (Est. $0.55) 🟢 🔹 Oper Income: $2.96B; +30% YoY 🔹 Oper Margin: 24.5%; +2.3 ppts YoY 🔹 FCF: $1.87B (Est. $1.46B) 🟢; UP +36% YoY Q1’26 Guide 🔹 EPS: $0.76 (Est. $0.81) 🔴 🔹 Revenue: $12.16B (Est. $12.2B) 🔴 🔹 Operating Income: $3.91B (Est. $4.18B) 🔴 🔹 Operating Margin: 32.1% (Est. 34.4%) 🔴 FY26 Outlook 🔹 Revenue: $50.7B to $51.7B (Est. $50.96B) 🟢 🔹 Operating Margin: 31.5% (Est. 32.4%) 🔴 🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~ $11B (Est. $11.93B) 🔴 🔹 Ads: expects ad revenue to roughly double vs. 2025 Q4 Segment Revenue (YoY) 🔹 U.S. & Canada (UCAN): $5.34B; UP +18% YoY 🔹 EMEA: $3.87B; UP +18% YoY 🔹 Latin America: $1.42B; UP +15% YoY 🔹 APAC: $1.42B; UP +17% YoY Other Key Q4 Items 🔹 Paid Memberships: crossed 325M during the quarter 🔹 Share Repurchases: $2.1B in Q4; $8.0B authorization remaining 🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $9.0B; Gross Debt: $14.5B 🔹 One-time: net income included ~ $60M in costs tied to the Warner Bros related bridge loan Major Headlines 🔸 Netflix says it will pause buybacks to accumulate cash ahead of the pending Warner Bros deal 👀 🔸 Warner Bros deal amended to an all-cash transaction valued at $27.75 per WBD share

GoZukkYourself

NFLX Q4 Performance • Revenue: $12.05B vs $11.97B est 🟢 • EPS: $0.56 vs $0.55 est 🟢 • Paid Memberships: crossed 325M during the quarter Q1 2026 Outlook • Revenue: $12.16B vs $12.19B est 🔴 • EPS: $0.76 vs $0.81 est 🔴 • Operating Margin: 32.1% FY 2026 Outlook • Revenue: $50.7B to $51.7B vs $50.98B est • Operating Margin: 31.5% • Free Cash Flow: roughly $11B • Ad Revenue: expected to roughly double • Higher operating income growth expected in H2 vs H1 Netflix beat on Q4 but guided Q1 below consensus. Full year outlook implies strong H2 acceleration with ad revenue doubling and FCF hitting $11B. It's dropping because of the guidance and the pause in buybacks.

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

NETFLIX [$NFLX](https://x.com/search?q=%24NFLX&src=cashtag_click) JUST REPORTED Q4 2025 EARNINGS **Q4 Performance** • Revenue: $12.05B vs $11.97B est • EPS: $0.56 vs $0.55 est • Paid Memberships: crossed 325M during the quarter **Q1 2026 Outlook** • Revenue: $12.16B vs $12.19B est • EPS: $0.76 vs $0.81 est • Operating Margin: 32.1% **FY 2026 Outlook** • Revenue: $50.7B to $51.7B vs $50.98B est • Operating Margin: 31.5% • Free Cash Flow: roughly $11B • Ad Revenue: expected to roughly double • Higher operating income growth expected in H2 vs H1 Netflix beat on Q4 but guided Q1 below consensus. Full year outlook implies strong H2 acceleration with ad revenue doubling and FCF hitting $11B.

AviPaz

Good questions. 1) Where do I get the stats? Mostly 10-K / 10-Q + earnings deck + transcript. IR site is fine but I prefer the filings. Then I sanity check with a screener (Finviz / Koyfin / TIKR / Yahoo etc). 2) Ok :) 3) How do I do it? I keep it simple: I track just a few lines every quarter revenue, gross margin, op margin, FCF, net debt, share count If those are trending the wrong way, I stop. 4) How do I know if it’s hype? Hype = story improves while numbers don’t. Real = revenue grows and margins + cash flow improve without heavy dilution. 5) Any advice? Not financial advice, but make it boring: fewer metrics, same process, repeated over time. Consistency beats “more info”. 6) About the triggers / buying more Not “buy more automatically”. It’s just a research trigger. Price down 20–30% can mean value OR danger, so I only act if fundamentals are intact: no thesis break, no balance sheet stress, no ugly dilution.

AviPaz

Nice setup. Not financial advice, but here’s the “deep work” checklist I use so the numbers don’t lie. 1) Business first (quick sanity) What do they sell, who pays, why they win, what breaks the thesis. 2) Survival filter (I kill it here if it fails) Cash runway, net debt, interest burden, dilution trend. 3) Quality filter Gross margin trend Operating margin trend Free cash flow consistency Share count stable or down 4) Growth reality 3Y/5Y revenue growth + whether margins are expanding or just hype. 5) Valuation last PE is a headline, not a model. Prefer EV/FCF or EV/Sales with margin context. 6) Triggers I only go from “watch” to “work” when there’s a clean trigger Down 20–30% without fundamentals breaking Earnings miss or guidance reset Macro selloff hitting the whole sector Also 200SMA is useful for sentiment, but it’s not a business variable.

_hiddenscout

Yeah, they are one of those companies that IPOEd as non profitable, but have become profitable and everything is improving. [https://quickfs.net/company/TOST:US](https://quickfs.net/company/TOST:US) Like last two quarters, ROIC is solid, high gross margins and operating margins. Really good FCF growth too: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tost/financials/cash-flow-statement/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tost/financials/cash-flow-statement/)

MitchCurry

Another space company about to come public. York Space Systems, Inc is looking to IPO at \~$4B MC on revenue of $281MM in 2024 (up 59% y/y). In 2024 they reported an operating loss of $54MM and negative FCF of $93MM. Government accounted for 96% of their 2024 revenue, up from 94% in 2023. Commercial and other revenue was flat y/y ($10.4MM in 2023, $10.8MM in 2024). That's the deepest I'll be diving. No interest in buying any shares for a long hold and no interest in requesting an IPO allocation for a fun IPO gamble.

Brilliant_Plan9413

The Scotiabank analyst that just downgraded for his short clients, forgot to remove the FCF numbers at the bottom of his report. By 2030 11bn 2032 15 bn . Those numbers place it at the top 15 and top 10 most valuable companies in the world. The lowest valued company printing 11bn FCF is 400bn market cap which would put ASTS at $1100 in 4 years. They have been validated at every step so far and that keeps pushing the stock higher, for those who know what's going on under the hood the stock seems cheap. People will be complaining about valuation all the way up the same way they did with Meta, Amazon, and Tesla.

FalconIllustrious663

I use a layered approach (free + paid), because no single source is “best” across every type of company: **1) First pass / idea generation** * Company filings (10-K / 10-Q) for the real story (business model, risks, segment data) * Earnings call transcripts (qualitative red flags and guidance changes) * Basic screeners (Finviz, TradingView, etc.) just to narrow the universe **2) Reality checks** * **Peer comparison**: valuation + quality vs similar companies (same industry/size). This avoids buying something that looks cheap but is actually cheap for a reason. * Margin / ROIC trend over multiple years * Debt & cashflow coverage (interest coverage, FCF consistency) **3) Price is last** Charts are useful, but I treat them as a timing tool, not a thesis. **Tools I personally like** * Yahoo Finance (quick overview, not always clean data) * Seeking Alpha / Koyfin (better structure, depends on your budget) * Simply Wall St (nice visuals, but I’d verify key numbers) * For deep dives: just use filings + transcripts If you want something that “does the heavy lifting”, I’d prioritize tools that **compare a company to peers** and **explain what drives the differences**, rather than single-number ratings or target prices. *(Side note: I actually built a small tool that generates peer-comparison reports from structured fundamentals. If anyone wants to try it, I can share — not investment advice, just objective comparison.)*

DrElkSnout

Few days ago I turned over a new leaf: Be nice. Today I'm trying again so I'll give you a pro tip - the gold and silver miners are going to have earnings beats that blow your mind, and FCF is going to cause orgasmic responses amongst investors. You still have plenty of time to invest. You're welcome.

Heavy_Discussion3518

Dude, how did this post fly under the radar so long?  These are killer recs, and completely unjustified in their market cap drops alongside legacy SaaS.  None of these are seat-driven revenue, it's all deep intellectual property and data with capabilities that are not cannibalized by AI, but rapidly enhance instead  I ran into this attempting DD on RVLT after searching for FCF positive, low debt, low market cap opportunities.  Many thanks.  

explorer_soul99

| Company | Mkt Cap | ROE | ROA | EV/FCF | CapEx % | |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| | META | $1,646B | 30.9% | 19.3% | 37.6x | 33.1% | | NFLX | $379B | 41.9% | 19.0% | 42.8x | 1.4% | | AMZN | $2,644B | 23.6% | 10.5% | 256.9x | 17.4% | | TSM | $43,558B | 34.5% | 21.6% | 48.1x | 36.3% | | UBER | $178B | 70.6% | 26.3% | 21.0x | 0.6% | UBER at 21.0x EV/FCF with 70.6% ROE is the value pick, recent profitability inflection not fully priced. AMZN at 256.9x EV/FCF is egregiously expensive (heavy AWS reinvestment dilutes FCF). META/NFLX/TSM cluster at 38-48x FCF with 31-42% ROE, fair value for quality growers. TSM's 36.3% CapEx (fab expansion) vs UBER's 0.6% shows capital allocation extremes. For DCF, use UBER/META (visible FCF), avoid AMZN (FCF suppressed by growth CapEx).

explorer_soul99

Actually worth digging into that cash position: **META Liquidity Trend (2024 → 2025):** | Quarter | Cash + ST Investments | Total Debt | Net Debt | |:--|:--|:--|:--| | Q4 2024 | $77.8B | $49.1B | $5.2B | | Q1 2025 | $70.2B | $49.5B | $20.8B | | Q2 2025 | $47.1B | $49.6B | $37.6B | | Q3 2025 | $44.4B | $51.1B | **$40.9B** | Cash position dropped $33B in 9 months. Net debt went from ~$5B to ~$41B. **Where's the cash going:** | Quarter | CapEx | FCF | Buybacks | Dividends | |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| | Q3 2024 | $8.3B | $16.5B | $8.8B | $1.3B | | Q4 2024 | $14.4B | $13.6B | $3.9B | $1.3B | | Q1 2025 | $12.9B | $11.1B | $12.8B | $1.3B | | Q2 2025 | $16.5B | $9.0B | $10.2B | $1.3B | | Q3 2025 | $18.8B | $11.2B | $3.3B | $1.3B | 2025 YTD CapEx: $48.3B (vs $37.3B for all of FY2024). Annualized run rate: ~$64B. At current trajectory: ~$64B CapEx + ~$40B shareholder returns = $104B annual outflow against ~$44B FCF. That's a ~$60B annual cash burn. The "so much cash" cushion is eroding fast. Not saying it's a dealbreaker, but the margin of safety is tighter than it was 12 months ago.

explorer_soul99

**META vs Mag6 (FY data):** | Ticker | Price | P/E | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Net Margin | |:-------|------:|----:|-------------:|----------:|-----------:| | META | $620 | 25.2x | 81.7% | 42.2% | 37.9% | | MSFT | $460 | 33.6x | 68.8% | 45.6% | 36.1% | | GOOGL | $330 | 41.0x | 58.2% | 32.1% | 28.6% | | AAPL | $255 | 34.1x | 46.9% | 32.0% | 26.9% | | AMZN | $239 | 42.2x | 48.9% | 10.8% | 9.3% | | NVDA | $186 | 62.7x | 75.0% | 62.4% | 55.8% | META has the **lowest P/E** in Mag6 and **highest gross margin** (81.7%). Revenue growth still running 18-21% YoY. **The catch - CapEx explosion:** | Quarter | CapEx | FCF | |:--------|------:|----:| | Q4 2024 | $14.4B | $13.6B | | Q1 2025 | $12.9B | $11.1B | | Q2 2025 | $16.5B | $9.0B | | Q3 2025 | $18.8B | $11.2B | CapEx doubled from $6-8B/quarter to $13-19B. They're burning cash on AI infrastructure. FCF is still positive but margin is compressing. The "steal" thesis works if you believe AI spend converts to revenue. At 25x with 82% gross margins, you're paying less than GOOGL (41x) for comparable ad business + AI optionality. **Risk:** If AI spend doesn't monetize in 2-3 years, that $70B+ annual CapEx becomes a drag. VR already burned $50B+ with nothing to show. At $50k position size, I'd want to see CapEx stabilize before full allocation. Maybe 50% now, 50% on Q1 2026 results.

Inside_Tour_1408

Some good picks here, I like the look of COF in particular especially after the dip from Trump's cap comments I've got UNH and VST but my 3 best value picks are: Rightmove - RMV.L - LON:RMV [https://www.rightmove.co.uk/](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/) UK's largest property website trading at 19 P/E, \~80% market share and Renters Rights act will drive loads of eyeballs to the website when minimum tenancies get scrapped Rolls Royce - RYCEY - LON:RR P/E at 18, huge beneficiary of increased defense spending over the next few years and strong nuclear potential Taylor Devices - TAYD P/E at 25, strong and stable FCF, no debt and a big beneficiary of any AI company looking to use nuclear energy in the coming years

Peliviestiposti

#finnishtungstenmafia $EQR from ASX will print like no tomorrow. Check skyrocketing prices on tungsten, EQR is 2x FCF company and risk of dilution is gooone!🔥 easiest pick for ten bagger this year

Big_Fix9049

Expected growth rate is 22% Wikipedia suggests EBITDA margin og FCF margin for profitability margin. EBITDA margin is 22.78% FCF margin is 30.83% So we're above 40 in either case.

SeriousSir1148

As per my personal framework, heavily influenced from teachings from Prof. Aswath Damodaran, I have done historical FCF analysis and I am convinced that Netflix is a good long-term debt given the gist from my blog post: # Cash-centric observations (summary) * **OCF:** Improved and consistent as revenue/pricing power scaled. * **CapEx & content cash:** More disciplined; licensing strategies reduce upfront content cash intensity. * **FCF:** Moved from negative/volatile to sustainably positive. * **Capital allocation:** FCF now funds buybacks and reduces leverage rather than requiring external funding. **Conclusion** * **Netflix + WBD (pro-forma)** — Most realistic financing mixes (material cash/debt) make the deal **FCF-dilutive** in the near term. Only a narrow path (large stock consideration, fast synergies, or aggressive WBD capex cuts) preserves Netflix’s per-share FCF profile. If interested, please look for my handle "jagadeeshrampam" and for the Title "Why Cash beats profit (Cash is the King)". suggestions/inputs welcome!

Big_Fix9049

Absolutely. But first thanks for having this discussion. Typically when people disagree, they just downvote or behave childish. You, on the other hand, ask question and give me a chance to explain my thoughts. If we look at the following website, it shows some data for NOW: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/NOW/summary?search=Now If you scroll down to the financials, you can see how revenue has been consistently increasing in the past 10 years. Same for the free cash flow. Only Net Income is a little bit choppy but the other metrics seems to consistently increase. NOW has almost 3 times cash than debt at hand. Plus the cash pile is increasing while the debt stays flat. If you look at the ROIC over the past 10 years, you can also see a trend that it went from strongly negative to more and more positive. If they continue their trend, I even expect a higher ROIC going forward. Plus, the growth projection for NOW is around 22% which I personally like. Again, I'd like to emphasize that there's a lot of assumptions and best guesses going forward. But based on the previous performance, I feel that NOW is a good long-term hold. And especially now where it's trading at 2021 prices, but with increased revenue and net profit and FCF, I feel that for me, NOW is a good investment. No financial advice, though. Do you own DD.

Big_Fix9049

I am not the right person for this discussion, but I'll gladly listen to others an æd their opinion and insights. To just explain my rationale behind my comment on NOW and my suggested candidates: My personal investment criteria requires a company to have a consistent increase in revenue, net profit and FCF. Ideally more cash than debt and fairly high profits. If those criteria are met, I'm looking at valuation metrics. I'm most confident in methods like DCF and forward PE (where growth is included). Lastly, I aim to find support levels where I confidently add shares (moving averages, oversold RSI etc). IMHO, this is the best I can do that keeps me sleep well at night. While I understand that past performance does not predict future performance, it gives evidence that the company has excelled in the past. How (potential) competitors or technology may or may not disrupt a company's performance is beyond my capabilities to fully understand as there are too many unknowns involved that no one (even experts in the industry) can fully comprehend and predict the impact and consequences. It's only a best guess. Best example is chatgpt versus Google Search. I'm very satisfied that I kept investing in GOOGL last couple of years despite whole Reddit claiming that GOOGL is gonna die because of chatgpt. Same with ASML and Meta etc

isomojo

Lifeway Foods (LFVN) What they do • Produces and sells kefir and probiotic dairy beverages • Niche brand with loyal consumer base; pricing power improving • Capital-light food business with steady cash generation Key indicators • FCF yield: ~10–11% (strong cash generation vs price) • Book-to-market: ~0.41 (P/B ≈ 2.4) • Market cap: ~$80M • Profitability trend: Operating & net margins trending up • Balance sheet: Positive equity, no balance-sheet distress ⸻ First Commonwealth Financial (FCF) What they do • Regional bank offering commercial, consumer, and wealth services • Conservative underwriting; benefits from higher-for-longer rates • Strong deposit franchise in the Mid-Atlantic Key indicators • FCF yield: ~7% • Book-to-market: ~0.85 (P/B ≈ 1.18) • Market cap: ~$1.8B • Profitability trend: Net interest margin & ROE improving • Balance sheet: Positive equity, well-capitalized ⸻ Greenbrier Companies (GBX) What they do • Manufactures railcars and provides leasing & aftermarket services • Beneficiary of freight, infrastructure, and reshoring • Backlog-driven revenue with improving pricing discipline Key indicators • FCF yield: ~8% • Book-to-market: >0.40 (P/B < 2) • Market cap: ~$1.5B • Profitability trend: Operating margin & ROIC rising • Balance sheet: Positive equity, manageable leverage ⸻ Mercantile Bank (MBWM) What they do • Michigan-based commercial & retail bank • High operating efficiency and disciplined credit risk • Shareholder-friendly capital return profile Key indicators • FCF yield: ~8% • Book-to-market: ~0.80 (P/B ≈ 1.25) • Market cap: ~$800M • Profitability trend: ROA & ROE improving • Balance sheet: Positive equity, strong capital ratios ⸻ RPC Inc (RES) What they do • Provides oilfield services & equipment to U.S. shale producers • Asset-light relative to peers; strong cycle discipline • Returns excess cash to shareholders during upcycles Key indicators • FCF yield: ~5.5–6% • Book-to-market: ~0.80 (P/B ≈ 1.2) • Market cap: < $2B • Profitability trend: Margins recovering and stabilizing • Balance sheet: Positive equity, low net debt ⸻ Quick Take All five names: • ✔ FCF yield ≥ 5% • ✔ B/M > 0.40 • ✔ Market cap < $2B • ✔ Positive & improving profitability • ✔ No negative equity • ✔ Trading closer to 12-month lows than highs If you want, next I can: • Rank them best → worst by value + quality • Remove banks and replace with industrials/tech • Extend this to a full 10-stock portfolio with weights and risk notes These are the ones I got from using the screen in the post.

vrtra_theory

The FCF/Price test seems like a strict one, considering a lot of popular small stocks right now actually have negative FCF - for example ONDS / RKLB / ASTS. (Am I using the right number or is there a special case for these tech stocks?)

explorer_soul99

Consumer defensive screening: | Stock | Market Cap | ROE | EV/EBITDA | FCF Yield | |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| | PG | $332B | 32.1% | 14.4x | 4.5% | | TGT | $48B | 24.9% | 7.6x | 6.3% | | SFM | $7.5B | 38.0% | 11.0x | 6.1% | | USFD | $17B | 12.2% | 15.7x | 5.8% | | FLO | $2.3B | 13.7% | 8.9x | 14.4% | **Your picks ranked by value metrics:** 1. **SFM (Sprouts)** - Best combo: 38% ROE, 11x EV/EBITDA, 6.1% FCF yield. Health-focused grocery niche. 2. **TGT (Target)** - 24.9% ROE at 7.6x EV/EBITDA is interesting. Beaten down from 2022 highs. Risk: Walmart competition. 3. **FLO (Flowers Foods)** - 14.4% FCF yield at 8.9x EV/EBITDA. Bread/bakery is stable but low growth. 4. **USFD** - Food distribution. Lower ROE (12.2%) but steady business. 5. **PG** - Quality compounder but 14.4x isn't "undervalued" - it's fairly valued for a blue chip. **Screen criteria for defensives:** - ROE > 15% - EV/EBITDA < 12x - Positive FCF yield SFM hits all three and has growth optionality (health/organic trend).

Mountain_Phone1002

Even with all competition it generated tons of FCF.

Friendly-Excuse400

I just looked at GIS. Nicely profitable with significant FCF. Net debt to EBITDA not ridiculous at 3.7x and they have been paying down. Decent dividend at 5.5% which I think is safe. Should hold up well if we go into a recession. I like it and added to my watchlist to consider buying. I think long term, it could retrace to $70ish range so about 50% upside potential.

ritholtz76

How are the valuations (future EPS and FCF Yield)?

FiduciaryArchitect

Excellent analysis OP! SNDL is totally undervalued in the current market. I believe this will be a transformative year with rescheduling, FCF growth and recent acquisitions like 1CM coming to fruition.

Inside_Tour_1408

It's a more a mix of peak rigidity in the UK housing market - which as I've mentioned has signs of being alleviated and a recent announcement for £60million invested in AI between 2026-28 This personally doesn't concern me given the company has a strong track record of rising FCF and paying off debt They currently have only £5mil debt with £40mil+ in cash Perhaps if they were to allocate their AI capital very poorly this could be a problem but I also think this can be offset from higher ad revenues Sources vary but the lowest estimates say 70% of their revenue comes from advertising so a strong lift in that could have a very positive affect It's also a monopoly for UK property websites

Inside_Tour_1408

Rightmove - largest property website in the UK, trades at 19 P/E, rising FCF and falling debt over past 5 years and counting, rejected a takeover bid with 50% upside and UK renters rights act will drive lots of eyeballs to site when minimum tenancies are scrapped in May this year

explorer_soul99

**Key Metrics (Private Prison Operators)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Market Cap | $2.4B | $2.2B | | ROE | 6.5% | 7.4% | | ROA | 2.4% | 3.5% | | EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 9.5x | **Income Statement (TTM)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Revenue | $2.45B | $2.09B | | Op Income | $280M | $240M | | Gross Margin | 80.6% | 23.7% | | Op Margin | 11.6% | 11.3% | **Cash Flow (TTM)** | Metric | GEO | CXW | |:--|:--|:--| | Operating CF | $240M | $230M | | Free Cash Flow | $130M | $210M | Both trade at similar valuations (~9x EV/EBITDA) with similar ROE (6-7%). GEO has higher gross margin (80.6%) but CXW generates more FCF ($210M vs $130M). The ICE contract risk is real. these are essentially government contractors with political risk. At 6-7% ROE, you're not getting paid much for the headline risk. If you want the sector, CXW's better FCF conversion provides more margin of safety.

explorer_soul99

**Key Metrics (GLP-1 Leaders)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Market Cap | $1,695B | $955B | | ROE | **77.9%** | 102.3% | | ROA | **23.0%** | 16.0% | | EV/EBITDA | **11.5x** | 39.1x | **Income Statement (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Revenue | $315.6B | $59.4B | | Op Income | $132.7B | $26.1B | | Gross Margin | 82.0% | 83.0% | | Op Margin | **42.0%** | **43.9%** | **Cash Flow (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Operating CF | $123.8B | $16.1B | | Free Cash Flow | **$62.7B** | $9.0B | NVO vs LLY comes down to valuation: - **NVO:** 11.5x EV/EBITDA, $62.7B FCF, 42% op margin - **LLY:** 39.1x EV/EBITDA, $9.0B FCF, 44% op margin LLY trades at 3.4x NVO's multiple despite similar margins. NVO's recent drop (oral GLP-1 concerns) created a valuation gap. **OZEM ETF** dilutes exposure across the value chain. If you're bullish GLP-1, concentrated positions in NVO (cheaper) or LLY (momentum) outperform diversified ETF. OZEM makes sense only if you can't pick between them.

analbuttlick

My god so many posts about MSFT. Their PE ratio is 32. Their price to FCF is 44. Their P/S is 12. Compared to historical averages of MSFT these valuations are high as fuck. Now you can argue they have transitioned into Cloud and AI, that will boost their revenue, but how much will it boost it with? How much growth are you expecting to justify those valuations? And how much do you think they will have to grow to be valued fairly?

melvinzee

They still have loads of cash, and FCF has been increasing despite these wasteful capex investments. Zuck seemed to think the Metaverse will be a thing and he failed, it was not make or break but it hurt. now he's moved on to what he thinks will be the next big thing. Innovation barely happens if companies don't take risks with their capital and just hoard it.

music_is_gud

Their earnings from ads are still super strong. I don't see earnings contractions in the near future. The capex may affect their FCF but meh, they can justify it as a long term plan. My PT for META is high 700s, I'm playing this as a long term hold 6-12 months

pink_ego_box

Yeah they were FCF positive when they had very low upfront development costs (everybody taking the same courses). Now it will be very different and they'll burn through their cash. It's a very recent change. Just wait for Q4 earnings and see.

Marko-2091

lol? This is a very regarded take. They have been FCF positive for a long time. They have steadily building their cash reserves. I am not saying this should trade at 500 but come on this is false.

DrElkSnout

You are. You see correlation of share price to metals spot price, not the stock price as a result of real earnings prints. The correlation you are witnessing now is the \*expectation of earnings\*, but the actual prints will dramatically alter the value of the underlying security. It's one thing to be able to say that you've calculated 'at $X/oz, company Y should be worth $Z/share', but it's quite another thing for FCF to actually exist in the real world and for those companies to be insanely profitable and have the ability to reinvest those funds, or pay out to shareholders depending on the company. You're not wrong that the spot price at earnings time will affect price, but this is not a 1:1 correlation. Earnings matter. The earnings prints will be enormous. Institutions like that, and what they do not like, is to miss out on the party. The stock prices of the majors will reflect an enormous rise in metals prices even beyond the daily spot as the future of our world shifts technologically toward a more advanced civilization. And please remember that the AI race has nothing to do with ordering a burger at a fast food chain - it is an ARMS race, and America is Hell bent on winning. For that reality to unfold, we need metals and rare earths. Good luck.

Jehoopaloopa

Not sure but the silver miners still haven’t caught up to the current silver price. Their FCF will be huge

callmecrude

I’m a buyer of PYPL anytime it drops below $60. A 10% FCF yield for a business that is expanding margins, growing revenue, has zero net debt, and is trading at a PE of 11 is just too attractive to pass up. There literally isn’t a single other company in the entire US stock market trading at those kinds of metrics.

explorer_soul99

let's add context to those CapEx numbers. Here's the full picture with TTM data (through Q3 2025): **Mag 7 CapEx Ranking (TTM):** | Rank | Ticker | CapEx (TTM) | OCF (TTM) | FCF (TTM) | CapEx/OCF | Business Model | |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| | 1 | AMZN | $120.1B | $130.7B | $10.6B | **92%** | AWS + logistics | | 2 | GOOGL | $77.9B | $151.4B | $73.6B | 51% | Data centers for AI | | 3 | MSFT | $69.0B | $147.0B | $78.0B | 47% | Azure + AI infrastructure | | 4 | META | $62.7B | $107.6B | $44.8B | 58% | AI, VR, data centers | | 5 | AAPL | $12.7B | $111.5B | $98.8B | **11%** | Asset-light (outsourced mfg) | | 6 | TSLA | $8.9B | $15.7B | $6.8B | 57% | Gigafactories + charging | | 7 | NVDA | $5.8B | $83.2B | $77.3B | **7%** | Fabless (TSMC makes chips) | **Who's Getting Bang for Buck?** **Best:** **NVDA** and **AAPL** - NVDA spends $5.8B, generates $77.3B FCF = **13.3x FCF/CapEx ratio**. They're fabless, so TSMC bears the capital burden. - AAPL spends $12.7B, generates $98.8B FCF = **7.8x ratio**. Outsourced manufacturing = capital efficiency. **Middle:** **MSFT** and **GOOGL** - Both spending heavily on AI data centers (~50% of OCF). This is a land grab—if AI scales, the ROI is massive. If AI fades, they're stuck with depreciating assets. **Worst:** **AMZN** - Spending $120B (92% of OCF!) on logistics + AWS. This is a **low-margin, high-CapEx** business. FCF is only $10.6B after CapEx. If AWS slows, AMZN is in trouble. **Your Question - "Is this for data centers?"** **AMZN:** 60% logistics (warehouses, trucks, planes), 40% AWS data centers. **GOOGL/MSFT/META:** 80-90% data centers (AI training, cloud compute). **Investment Implications:** - **If you believe AI scales:** GOOGL/MSFT are building moats (CapEx now = market share later). - **If you're skeptical:** AAPL/NVDA are safer (capital-light, generate cash without heavy reinvestment). - **AMZN is a red flag:** $120B CapEx for $10B FCF is unsustainable. They need AWS to accelerate or retail margins to improve. **Bull (for CapEx-heavy):** AI infrastructure = future monopoly **Bear:** Overbuilding, excess capacity, low ROI on $500B cumulative spend My ranking: **NVDA > AAPL > MSFT > GOOGL > META > TSLA > AMZN** (on capital efficiency).

explorer_soul99

"Apple Intelligence" outsourcing to Google is a massive narrative shift, but let's check if fundamentals support your thesis: **GOOGL vs AAPL - TTM Comparison:** | Metric | GOOGL | AAPL | |--------|-------|------| | Market Cap | $3.97T | $3.83T | | YTD Return | +73.4% | +6.4% | | P/E Ratio | 32.0x | 34.6x | | FCF Yield | 1.9% | 2.6% | | ROE | 35.0% | 164.0% | | Analyst Rating | Buy (67/81 analysts) | Buy (67/109 analysts) | **Your Thesis - Reality Check:** 1. **"GOOGL owns AI for entire mobile world"** - TRUE. Gemini powering iOS Siri (rumored $1B+ deal) gives Google data moat + revenue from both platforms. But... Apple historically pays for services (see $20B/year to Google for search). This isn't new; it's scale. 2. **"Apple Services margins take a hit"** - MAYBE. Apple's Services segment has 71% gross margins. Even a $1-2B Gemini tax is ~1-2% of Services revenue ($85B TTM). Not material unless usage explodes. 3. **"GOOGL calls for iPhone 17 cycle"** - DATA SAYS YES. GOOGL is up 73% YTD vs AAPL's 6%. Market already sees this. But GOOGL trades at P/E 32x (slight discount to AAPL's 35x), so some room left. **Reality:** - AAPL is NOT just a "luxury hardware wrapper." Services + Ecosystem lock-in = 164% ROE (highest of Mag 7). They're a cash-printing machine. - GOOGL benefits from AI dominance, but faces antitrust risk (DOJ search monopoly case). **Trade:** GOOGL momentum looks strong (+73% YTD), but I'd ladder in vs YOLO calls. For AAPL puts, you're betting against $99B FCF/year and 164% ROE—gutsy. **Bull GOOGL:** AI infrastructure leader, data moat, cheaper than AAPL on P/E **Bear AAPL:** Services growth slowing, AI outsourced, China risk I'd play a **paired trade** (long GOOGL, underweight AAPL) rather than naked puts on Cook's ego.

DrElkSnout

No one is late cycle yet. The miners haven't reported earnings with the absolutely parabolic rise in metals. Plus, oil / fuel / energy costs are very low right now, so mining costs (AISC, etc.) are basically flat from last few earnings reports. The smart miners like CDE are using this time and record FCF to buy new mines. There is a LOT of upward momentum here and multi-billion dollar deals between companies like Coeur Mining and New Gold and even companies like Rio Tinto and Glencore show that metals is the play right now. FWIW I'm heavily invested in metals, rare earths, oil and nuclear energy.

TimeInTheMarketWins

I like FactSet (FDS) because it is a highly durable, cash-generative business with a most due to its essential workflow integrations for clients. It generates recurring subscription revenue with ~95% ASV retention, operates at a ~35% operating margin and 25% net margin, and produced ~$617M of free cash flow on $2.32B of FY2025 revenue. The company also demonstrates a great ROIC, at roughly 20% it is well above its ~8.3% WACC. What makes it especially attractive to me is valuation and capital return: the stock trades around ~18× earnings and ~17× free cash flow despite FY2025 EPS growing 11.8% to $15.55, implying a ~6% FCF yield. That cash supports a 25+ year dividend growth streak with a ~26% FCF payout ratio and an expanded $1B buyback authorization. If I had the $11 billion needed to buy out the business based on its current market cap, I would in a heartbeat!

Disastrous_Rent_6500

Um, it’s pretty simple. Just buy companies with mountains of cash/FCF, stable revenue during a recession or war, and chill. Big dips are just buying opportunities anyways. Since I’m in energy, a more conflicts just increases the profitability of my shipping stocks so I’m good either way

dvdmovie1

"This is not a growth story. Equity upside requires only EBITDA stabilization, continued FCF generation, gradual deleveraging toward ~3x net leverage." Agree with this. Too many people frame these kinds of stories as "OMG you guyz this is such a great company and there is growth here that nobody gets but me." Petco isn't a great company. So many of the cat/dog food brands are the same brands you find at supermarkets. It isn't going to grow but - as a place to get other pets (fish, birds, whatever) and services (cat grooming, in-store vets) it's probably not going to grow much but it's not the zero the market is acting as if it is.

DrElkSnout

No one is listening but I'm going to keep saying it: The miners lag the metals prices. What you see in gold and silver has NOT yet been priced in. It's reflexive trading based on prices, but without earnings releases. The FCF from these companies is going to be bonkers. Oil prices are very low, so all in sustaining cost of mining is basically flatlined and metals are mooning. If you think you've missed this run, think again. Ignore or downvote IDGAF, but I made over 100% in my portfolio last year screaming from the rooftops that a metals supercycle was beginning and very few people listened. Now I'm telling you it's not over. Good luck.

Strange-Scene4110

To be called a retard for this among a group of retards means this is a good play this week. Anyone expecting instant increases in silver supply in response to a higher price are correct on most commodities, but they have no clue what they’re talking about as it relates to silver. China is putting export controls for silver, of which 70% of the global silver is refined in China. There is 5 years of ongoing annual supply deficits. Bullion banks are caught on the wrong end of the short position. Short covering in Q1, ongoing deficits, and global demand surges, are going to make miners today look extremely cheap by comparison. They’re already very underpriced relative to the price of the metal. Miners are waiting for another price surge to validate the recent rise above $50. Existing mines are mostly operating at capacity already, and new discoveries will take 10+ years to turn a project into a functioning mine. All the easy deposits have already been found and tapped. It’s essentially now mostly mined as a byproduct of other metals. The reason the price of silver cratered after all time highs in the past was because it was a pet rock. It didn’t have very much industrial demand, and the monetary demand has basically been nothing for 50 years after removing silver from the coinage. But now it’s eaten up by industry and thrown away. And simultaneously, the monetary use of it is making a global comeback. The “market cap” of silver is fake because it counts all silver ever mined. But the reality is it’s been so cheap for so long that industries have been built on the back of cheap silver. And it’s used in such small amounts in the components that it is not, and has not been, cost economical to recycle it. The estimates from the world gold council in 2025 suggest the actual above ground silver is 4x more scarce than physical gold. And silver continues to be eaten up and used in industry. The digital world NEEDS silver. Some use cases could swap to copper instead, but the majority of use cases cannot because silver is the most conductive element on the entire periodic table. It’s REQUIRED for high performance electronics, solar panels, batteries, chips, data centers, etc Any price dips will be eaten up by industry, or allow shorts to buy to cover. Both create barriers to a lower price. Not to mention the COMEX and LBMA have issued 300+ paper claims to each oz of physical silver they actually hold. And now that their vaults are being drained, they’re at risk of being exposed. Which would send the price stratospheric as the world races to secure silver. Gold miners compared to the spot price of gold are trading about 75% LOWER than the level prior to 2011. This means miners can 3X from here without any spot price increases, just to get to parity with previous cycles. Silver is even more extreme. Not financial advice, but most investors are oblivious to these miners who are outputting BILLIONS in FREE CASH FLOW, and they’re trading like they’re debt laden. Yet the AI bubble stocks are losing a billion a quarter 😂 I’m retarded, but not retarded enough to ignore the FCF beasts that are literally pulling money out of the ground. Not financial advice. https://preview.redd.it/wxko02vaoscg1.jpeg?width=1152&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a1b024af563d2ba7726d3d3adaa336aeb68f795

mba23throwaway

I’m on mobile so formatting may be bad. Overall, they seem to be making the right moves. - Deleveraging and interest savings: They’re selling non-core assets to raise cash and pay down debt, and refinancing to reduce interest expense. Debt also overstated with how they have to mark leases on the BS. I don’t really count lease obligations as “debt” even if that’s how they have to be accounted. - Better-than-expected growth in higher-margin areas: Digital growth is outpacing expectations, and table games (not sports) are driving the upside, which should be margin-accretive. - Downside support: The real estate value exceeds the current market cap, providing tangible asset backing. This is a huge downside protection. I have their real estate worth like 4-5x of their market cap, conservatively assuming a sale-leaseback. - Capex cliff: Major capex rolled off in 2025, which should meaningfully increase free cash flow. - Cash flow vs. debt burden: By 2028, the FCF yield is projected to exceed the debt yield. I put a lot of weight on what the debt market is pricing, since lenders have to get paid. - Capital allocation: I have confidence in management and am comfortable with buybacks at these levels. In my view, the stock is a steal at anything below $30.

Weak-Pomegranate-435

Yes, below $200 all of the risk has been priced-in and they are 100% not going bankrupt they have their SAAS business customers already locked-in forever which will always generate FCF to pay off any debt overtime.

Hartmingo

Steady state margins for this company could probably be like 2014 Micros if not higher.. 15% FCF margins. McDonald’s/inspire would be huge catalysts if they get either

GringottsWizardBank

Wait so AAPL gets to use Gemini and they didn’t have blow through years of FCF to achieve it? They won lol. This isn’t defeat.

Much_Candle_942

ASTS has a competitor.. and it's trading at 16 PE, is profitable with good FCF and PS ratio of just 2. Guess which company is it?

i-love-you-sm

2nd profitable Q in a row for TLRY. They’re turning the corner here and soon will be FCF positive. Non-cash charges probably need to be explained better bc it is confusing some people

Mariox

1. Tesla is 1 step away from launching robotaxi without observers. They have at least 7 vehicles now driving in Austin without an observer but no paying passenger. Anyone can buy or test drive a Tesla to see if self driving with cameras work. Can't it will never happen, because is it currently happening. 2. robotics. There are a couple of companies testing humanoid robots but that is all. Maybe can count Amazon, but they don't have hands. They can only move things around. Tesla is currently working on their Optimus production line, something most every other robot maker don't have, they build them by hand. 3. Energy growth, auto sales, superchargers, services, lithium refining, battery production, semi production.... Elon has been to optimistic on timelines and the only thing Tesla has failed on has been solar roofs. But that happens with most companies when they are working on something very hard to do. Here is the advantage Tesla has over everyone else in robotaxi or robots. $42 billion in cash and no debt making $2 billion FCF a quarter. Everyone else has to spend a lot of time promoting their product, making promo videos to raise money and limit how fast they can spend money. You may not find much for bullish thesis around Tesla on reddit, you will find many haters here, try searching for videos on youtube and honestly consider what Tesla bulls are saying. Bulls spend a lot more time researching Tesla then bears do.

tachyonvelocity

Related to the theme of buying stocks with cheap P/FCF, when I bought WBD at $9, now sold at $28, CMCSA looks amazingly cheap here. Without TV networks, I can see CMCSA easily trading at $40, >4 EPS, <10x valuation. These deep value stocks can make you a lot of money. Just look at how AT&T went up 100% after spinning off WarnerBros for example.

The-zKR0N0S

Rocket Lab flips to FCF positive once Neutron starts flying

jarkon-anderslammer

Fair point—I should have accounted for that. You're right that Meta has roughly $30B off-book through the Beignet SPV with Blue Owl, on top of the ~$29B on-balance-sheet debt. That's a different picture than I painted. And Blue Owl specifically is having a rough go. Their stock is down 30%+ this year, they're the most shorted among private credit peers, they had to scrap a fund merger after it would have forced a 20% haircut on investors, and they're now facing class action lawsuits over allegedly hiding redemption pressures. The broader pattern is worth watching too—Oracle, Meta, xAI, and CoreWeave have collectively moved $120B+ off their balance sheets through SPVs. One analyst called the Meta/Blue Owl structure "off-balance-sheet gymnastics 24 years after Enron." The debt is rated A+ because it's effectively backstopped by Meta's residual value guarantee, but that means the risk sits with Meta even if it doesn't show up on their books. I still don't think Meta specifically is in trouble—$52B annual FCF covers a lot of sins—but the systemic point about private credit opacity is legitimate. If these SPV structures start showing stress across multiple lenders simultaneously, that's a different beast than individual company leverage.