FCF

GRB787

Their FCF is at 3% in 2025. Which is not that great. Their revenue is growing YoY and by a lot, but from 2024 to 2025 their net income stagnated as well as their increase in financing which means they are buying that growth. They are moving into telehealth and peptides....... which Hims brand is growing, so I see it positively for 2027. I think if you were to buy, now would be the time. My concern is if growth from 2024-2025 can be duplicated before they launch these two additional products, in which case you would see it to the moon. My opinion: I am bullish on Hims

ConferenceLow8960

6% is hard to ignore but I see why you’re considering adding. Just feels like the whole thing depends on them keeping FCF solid while spending on fiber… that balance isn’t that easy.

ConferenceLow8960

I’m leaning the same way too… FCF and debt probably matters way more than a small beat. EPS feels kinda secondary here unless something really unexpected shows up.

Responsible-Key8163

I’d be watching FCF and debt metrics first too, that probably matters more than a small earnings beat. Interesting setup. I sometimes run theses like this through Runable to stress test the bull and bear cases.

Orennji

This is why I preface by saying it's an unpopular opinion here, specifically on this forum. The debt aversion in particular is understandable based on the history of this sector, but this leads to a heavy bias towards low risk/reward approaches. Basically GTI maximalism. Full disclosure, Cura is a small part of my cannabis portfolio but I can see what they're doing. >Why would institutions invest in Curaleaf when they’re unprofitable with $500M+ in debt (and they refinanced at an 11.5% interest rate) due 2029 vs $100M in cash? The $500m debt maturity was just rolled forward to 2029. People here keep acting like it's due tomorrow, while ignoring the positive FCF to pay down the interest. I hope people here understand net income as an accounting line item includes non-cash expenses like depreciation, which is huge for companies actively building out physical infrastructure.  >Imagine having $100K in cash, and owing $500K. And your “net income” is negative while pocketing cash that you’re not using to pay taxes (280E). To correct your analogy, I would be adding $60-70k in incoming cash (FCF) after interest expense on top of my $100k cash every year until 2029, when I will most likely be in a better position to refinance once again. >They have not paid 280E over the years so they’re not getting a “refund” even in the uncertain scenario where forgiveness happens - the liability just goes away. So then let's model each scenario. If they are put on a repayment plan for the full $400-$500m UTP over a period of 7-10 years ($50-$70m a year), their FCF is essentially zero and the company eventually goes to zero. The market is not pricing this in yet. But if they win their case for a lower amount at $300m, $200m, or $100m? The after-tax FCF in that scenario keeps them solvent and in business. They keep their market share, and keep improving margins like all the other MSOs. In the meantime, the low risk/reward operators focus only on limited markets with no competition. As those markets open up, they suffer price compression and FCF from the "blue chip" operators fall. The golden goose is dead. It becomes increasingly expensive to grow by acquisition, and organic expansion yields diminishing returns in saturated markets that are "new" to the company but already crowded with everyone else.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- Ticker: $MNDY Direction: Up Prognosis: Buy Shares (Targeting a 2x return / 10-12x FCF) Catalyst: May 11th earnings and a massive $870M stock buyback program Ultimate Bull Signal: Users aggressively complain about the software on Reddit while admitting they are physically incapable of doing their jobs without using it every single day. Whale Status: OP casually dropped $600k on this like it's pocket change.

HotDoor4125

Probably both working together. Memory fabs are extraordinarily capital intensive and Micron is spending heavily on new fab capacity to meet AI HBM demand, which eats into FCF even when profits are high. That’s the operational expense side. The cyclical pricing piece is also real as DRAM and NAND pricing is elevated right now which inflates reported profits but capex doesn’t go down just because prices are up. So you get this situation where net income looks incredible but cash after reinvestment is thin. The question is whether the capex eventually pays off in sustained HBM demand or whether they’ve overbuilt into a cycle turn. That’s the whole bet.

Old_Research_3436

Low FCF margin is possibly due to high operational expense? Or cyclical high pricing they can put out for now?

armadillo_stocks

It has the lowest FCF multiple, stock is conducting buybacks, CEO says they don’t want to sell out to private equity (there’s inbound interest), every quarter their existing clients spend more with the business

HotDoor4125

Ran the fundamentals on MU recently. The quality improvement is real. ROIC went from a 5yr average of 4.5% to 34.7% currently, profit margins exploded from 5.5% average to 41.5% TTM. Business is genuinely much better than it was. The reason the market is cautious though is sitting in the cash flow. FCF margin is only 5% despite 41% profit margins, and price to FCF is 193x. There's a big gap between reported profits and actual cash generation right now, which is a classic memory cycle warning sign. We've seen this movie before with Micron - peak cycle profits look incredible until they don't. My model puts fair value around $534 vs current price of roughly $497, so fairly valued not deeply undervalued. The bull case requires believing this cycle is structurally different because of AI memory demand. That might be right. But the low forward P/E reflects cycle risk, not irrationality.

skilliard7

No serious analyst bases value on FCF, Tesla beat on EPS.

Prudent-Corgi3793

Why is the source of such discrepancy between the GAAP and non-GAAP numbers? Market loved the adjusted EPS beat of $0.29, but the GAAP EPS of -$0.73 was one of its worst on record. And the difference wasn’t in the revenue (essentially flat) or FCF (improving, but still negative). I get that the guidance was great, but enough to pop +25% after an already epic run up?

Market_Monkey_

💯 I've made a very comfortable living focusing on contrarian strategies. I am about to move out of a long term position and although I'm not quite done working through my list of beaten down companies yet, CRM is at the top of my list right now. Rock solid financials, fantastic FCF, and now $50B stock buyback. CRM is fundamentally a solid business with a narrative problem because of unfounded AI fears around per seat pricing compression. I'll probably get through my list this weekend, but I expect I'll be forming a large position in CRM shortly.

tachyonvelocity

Another major software company reported earnings today: Roper, significant because it's not a 1-business software but represents an entire class of vertical software used by smaller companies. Comparable with Constellation Software and Topicus. Extremely solid EPS $22 for 2026, valuation at 15x LTM FCF, growth of 10% FCF, 3.8B stock buybacks, or over 10%. Zero sign of the AI SaaSpocalypse in smaller companies so far.

_hiddenscout

Yeah, really got a lot of performance like a few months back when someone mentioned how they have nuclear exposure, like an analyst lol. A lot of defense have been selling off, but now looking at forward PE of 10, P/FCF at 24, and PEG at 0.75. not a bad deal!

Numerous_Put4717

So anybody have a clue what Nvidia is gonna do with their 100 billion FCF?

King_Chron

Based on its [Full Year 2025 financial results](https://ir.marimedinc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/296/marimed-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025-earnings) (released March 11, 2026) and current 2026 analyst projections, the removal of Section 280E following the federal shift to Schedule III is expected to save **MariMed Inc. (MRMD)** approximately **$15 million annually**. This saving represents **9.4% of its total revenue** ($159.8M).  **MariMed Post-280E Breakdown** * **Profitability Flip**: In 2025, MariMed reported a **GAAP net loss of $14.5 million**. Under a standard 21% corporate tax regime, analysts project this loss will flip to a **net profit of $5 million to $10 million** in 2026, **even without revenue growth.** * **Operating Expense Deductions**: MariMed will finally be able to deduct its **$56.9 million in annual operating expenses**—including rent, payroll, and marketing—against its federal taxes. * **Effective Tax Rate**: The company’s effective tax rate is expected to drop from a staggering **70%–90%** of gross profit to a normalized **\~21%** of net income. * **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Analysts at [Matrix BCG](https://matrixbcg.com/blogs/growth-strategy/marimedinc) project a **$3 million to $10 million FCF upside** from 280E removal, which the company intends to use to fund expansion in Maryland, Ohio, and Illinois. * **Valuation Rerating**: Beyond immediate cash, the removal of the tax "overhang" is estimated to add **$0.34 to $0.55 per share** in value, potentially raising the company's price target toward **$0.90 – $0.95 USD**.  [MatrixBCG.com](http://MatrixBCG.com) \+8 Dont let the nay sayers steer you away from this one.

HotDoor4125

Ran LULU through my fundamental screen out of curiosity. Gross margins at 56.6% are genuinely strong and the 5yr revenue CAGR of 21.7% shows what this business was capable of. But the ROIC has dropped from a 5yr average of 39.2% down to 25% currently, FCF margin is only 7.4% which is low for a premium brand, and the net income trend is deteriorating. That said, at ~$143 my model puts fair value around $248, which is a pretty wide gap. At 12.5x earnings it’s not priced like a premium brand anymore. The bull case is that the ROIC compression is temporary, Asia growth re-accelerates, and the new CEO stabilizes the US business. The bear case is that the brand has peaked in its core market and the economics never recover to what they were. Could genuinely go either way but the valuation is starting to look interesting if you believe in the turnaround

armadillo_stocks

Cheapest one in the bunch on FCF basis Most beaten down.

armadillo_stocks

Because it’s at the cheapest price out there, they have a buyback program, trading at 6x FCF. Profitable, clients growing

HotDoor4125

Ran the fundamentals on PLTR recently and the business quality is genuinely impressive. ROIC flipped from negative to 25%, gross margins at 82%, FCF margin around 28%. The turnaround is real. The valuation is the problem. At 78x sales and 231x earnings, my DCF puts fair value closer to $36. At $142 you’re paying a massive premium for flawless execution for years with zero margin for error. Even if you’re bullish on AIP becoming enterprise AI infrastructure, the math requires near perfect growth to justify current prices. If I were watching for an entry personally I’d want to see either revenue growth re-accelerating above 40% sustained, or a pullback into the $80-90 range where the valuation starts making more sense relative to the growth rate. At $128-130 support you’re still paying a lot for what might happen

armadillo_stocks

Because now is more expensive on FCF

armadillo_stocks

There’s a post on my thread why. Monday is trading at 6x FCF. I believe fears are overblown. Existing customer base spending more, not less.

Imaginary_Rooster622

After Uplisting $30 ⬆️ is a no brainer. FCF is going to be wild. Florida is medicinal capital of the USA. Bye bye 280E

Cheekycharmer95

Now extrapolate that logic to an enterprise company with a highly bureaucratic process to switch things out. Adobe is sticky. Their earnings consistently paint this picture and their margins are excellent. You are exactly the reason I believe this won’t be going anywhere in the next 12 months and will continue to generate an attractive FCF. Sounds like you are retail as well, my thesis rests on ent stickiness. I do believe it could be a similar story to Kodak eventually tho. So will sell when I next go green!

Dense-Yak7105

the P/E thing is real but honestly you kinda have to think about it on a price-to-FCF or forward revenue basis for a company like this. Their FCF margins have been solid and thats what gives the bull case some legs. The $128-130 zone you're pointing to has held multiple times and that's interesting from a technical standpoint, but i'd want to see consistent commercial segment growth before treating it as a reliable floor. Personally wouldn't size in until closer to sub-$100 for the risk/reward to make sense, but hard to say the thesis is FULLY BROKEN at current levels if you believe in the AI government platform story long term.

Deep-Bench-2016

The Intel print is more important than the +16% after-hours number suggests — and also less important than the Terafab headline suggests. Three things actually happened. First, EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 consensus and revenue $13.6B vs $12.36B. That's a sixth consecutive revenue beat, and the Street was modeling essentially zero earnings. Client Computing came in at $7.7B vs $7.1B expected — the PC refresh cycle is real, and the AI PC mix is pulling ASP. Second, the Google Cloud multi-year Xeon arrangement. This is the piece that actually matters for the narrative. Every hyperscaler has been actively moving compute to custom silicon (Graviton, Trainium, Maia, Axion); a multi-year Xeon commitment from Google is the first real evidence that the CPU side isn't a melting ice cube. Third, Terafab. This is marketing — Musk ventures have announced fabs before, and a 2026 announcement doesn't become revenue before 2029. Treat it as an option, not a cash flow line. What I'd be watching into Q2: (1) Foundry segment operating loss — if it compresses by even $500M, the path to foundry breakeven by 2028 gets re-underwriteable; (2) capex intensity as a % of revenue — Intel ran at 45% capex/revenue in 2024, guidance implies the low-30s by 2027, any deviation changes the FCF math materially; (3) gross margin trajectory — sub-40% is the zone where shareholders lose faith, mid-40s is the zone where the stock can re-rate to a turnaround multiple. Q2 guide of $13.8–14.8B revenue is actually a \~$500M beat at the midpoint vs Street. The setup into Q2 is asymmetric — most of the bear case is now priced; most of the bull case still isn't.

banff_lover

The virtue signalling is in this sub is unbelievable. If you don’t like it just don’t invest. Going off topic and rage baiting to internet strangers must be new cool. OP - I’m not invested in PLTR. So this analysis is just for my interest. Assuming terminal growth rate at 3%, and FCF at 30% (right now it is 50%+ so being conservative ) fair value would be something like in 90s depending on WACC.

livingbyvow2

Did you look at their PEG ratio over the next few years? FCF yield? These guys are betting the house on AI and their search cash cow may get wiped out if people increasingly use LLMs for their queries and shopping / product discovery - especially as agentic solutions like OpenClaw are about to be released by all the major players (including Meta). In Enterprise, Anthropic is taking the lead by a wide margin. At $4Tn market cap the IPOs you mention represent barely 5% of their market cap and are already largely priced in. They will still use Broadcom to the TPUt, Mediatek is only handling the TPUi chip, and that's the first time they use them at scale (which creates a significant execution risk) - and in both instances the massive increase in HBM prices will negatively impact their unit economics on both chips. The company is priced for near perfection and I would strongly recommend everyone spend a little bit more time looking at the numbers and the story before jumping on that bandwagon.

augustus331

At my BEP with Adobe's last full year financials for reference it's roughly 9.4x FCF, meaning that with total stagnation in growth I'd have 11.6% cash yield on purchase. So no, I am not concerned. It's all more than priced in.

dieharddubsfan

GOOGL has had a nice run, but looking at [its P/E and EV/FCF recent history](https://www.stock-table.com/ticker/GOOGL/fundamentals?public_uuid=5f048e45-cde6-46e0-bcfa-a00d9ca3d6e9&timeframe=quarterly), it's no longer as attractive as it was 9 months ago. I would guess its short term upside would be limited and there's a higher downside risk and could be triggered if people start worrying about their AI-related spending. I am a GOOGL investor myself and I will continue to hold it, but for the time being, I think there are more attractive opportunities out there, such as META and MSFT. I do have faith in their Frontier model development and how AI can power more revenue for them, but probably would not accumulate more until they're below $300 again.

_hiddenscout

I think MSFT is a different story to some extend. It's more about FCF going into CAPEX, with copilot looking like a failure and like 40% of the cloud backlog being from OpenAI.

_hiddenscout

I think MSFT is just a different story. MSFT is more a story about CAPEX numbers going into data centers, meaning like all FCF is going to that. Plus, market sees copilot as a failure. There was news this morning about Google doesn't want to miss the boat on software tooling. As a software engineer, this is where I think LLM's are doing a great job and showing value. Plus there is the issue around OpenAI being like 40% of the cloud backlog.

augustus331

A P/FCF of 9ish and 8.5ish if you look at forward numbers for a company with 89% gross margins and RPO-contracted revenue streams is NOT cheap “ish” It’s literally the cheapest I have ever seen a high quality, elite margin business trading at. A rerating to 15x which is still well under Adobe’s historical 30-50x would make the share price be ~580$.

ZedSwift

They cut their capex in half 1Q to show FCF but raised their yearly guidance to $25b and they used $2B to pump Elon’s next overly valued scam

miguel_equivara

Moveworks acquisition alone creates a 200bps FCF margin headwind for the full year. I see different thesis here. The market is pricing in structural compression. While The filing says it’s acquisition timing.

Brawmethius

FCF going negative for 2026 too about to become infinity

Brawmethius

Only other trillion dollar market cap with negative FCF is Amazon and that because let me see they need to speend 200B on Ai and AWS. Now not sure about their AI but their AWS makes money. Now our little tesler darling will be deeply negative over uhh 25B for "ai". Hmmmm market, these are not the same.

AdCritical5383

Most megacaps have a P/FCF of 15-25x. **TSLA has the retard strength at 110x.** We live in a society LMAO 🤌.

_hiddenscout

I follow a lot of dense and aerospace names. Also own a lot of them too. I post more in the daily threads. TDY is a great company, but a big reason why I never bought them is that they are too expensive for how I evaluate companies. I'm a GARPy investor, so I like to buy things at a responsible price. When looking at TDY, it's not the cheapest name out there: [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tdy/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tdy/statistics/) PEG is at 3, P/FCF is at 28. So to me, you are going to be paying a premium for the company. Part of doing well in the stock market is to make sure you aren't over paying for things.

liftingshitposts

FCF is going to be *the* hot topic this earnings cycle

DerSchamane

At 9+% Free Cash Flow Yield with solid numbers and a history of solid numbers and them using all the FCF cash for share buybacks I have huge difficulties not liking the stock. They just need to survive 1-2 years and with how much they can buy back at these prices it is bound to pay for itself. In my eyes it is priced for complete collapse and that is a tall order for the bears. Disclosure: I am already invested, bought first time a few weeks ago for around 255 I think

_hiddenscout

Few things. One is, PE is just a single metric, you should be using more than that. Second, you shouldn't compare PE's from companies in different sectors. Like there is different PE average for different sectors. [https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/\~adamodar/New\_Home\_Page/datafile/pedata.html](https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html) I like looking at P/FCF compared to PE and NKE is still showing 64. So even with a low PE level, it's still pretty expensive if you are basing it off the Price to Free Cash Flow. Also PEG is high on finviz vs stock analysis, meaning that EPS growth is probably wonky right now.

ensui67

Nope, it isn’t historically expensive. It is fairly priced and actually got cheaper since September/October. It is your simple math that is outdated. P/E does not capture the growth. Margins, FCF, etc. all matter and better analysts have pointed it out. Even by P/E, market got cheaper over the last few quarters, so, what data have you actually been analyzing? The market is always right. You always have to be in that mindset because the price is the price. You being in that much cash and having a long term investment horizon just goes to show that you are not smarter than the market. It is the collective thought of trillions of dollars and you don’t have trillions of dollars.

Crazy_Donkies

It also keep bringing up DCF and FCF but doesn't realize FCF is impacted by CAPEX that can also lead to margin expansion in the future. It lacks the understanding for why some of these companies have lower FCF. Also lacks the understanding that companies can stop spending on CAPEX when needed, thus returning to positive FCF.

Crazy_Donkies

You also keep bringing up DCF and FCF but don't realize FCF is impacted by CAPEX that can also lead to margin expansion. You lack the understanding for why some of these companies have lower FCF. Also lack the understanding that companies can stop spending on CAPEX when needed, thus returning to positive FCF.

drew-gen-x

AT&T $T earnings this morning EPS $0.57 beat est $0.55 Revenue $31.51B beat est $31.25B Guidance EPS for 2026 $2.25-$2.35 vs est $2.30. FCF $2.5 down from $3.1B YOY due to higher fiber cap ex investments. $T is down over 3% this morning. I think the market is worried about their decreased FCF and increased cap ex fiber investment. I added another 100 shares @ $25 as part of my dump $TLT for At&T b/c it rhymes portfolio re-balancing.

Sensitive-Talk9616

Yes, but what prevents Adobe from doing just that? They have billions of designs already, and the cash to spare for developing such tools. I'm not in the Adobe ecosystem and not following closely their products. But I remember the same kind of "what if" with Google a year ago. In the end, it turns out having billions in FCF, thousands of corporate clients, millions of users, and petabytes of data was enough to build tools comparable to openAI&Co.

BrownEyesWhiteScarf

There is no Cook premium - Apple’s PE ratio stayed below 15 for the first six years of Cook’s tenure, and increased largely due to the increased buybacks issues starting around 2017. Cook has both successes and failures when it comes to innovation. He and Ternus were major parts of Apple’s transition away from Intel silicon. At the same time, Cook’s tenure also includes multi-billion dollar failures such as Project Titan and the Butterfly keyboards. So from the outside Ternus seems to be more competent than many other Apple VPs. The real question is if we expect Apple’s margins and FCF prospects to change anytime soon with a new CEO, and in my opinion, no.

Dstein99

One is trading at a 27 Forward P/FCF with free cash flow expected to grow by 85% this year. The other does not have a Forward P/FCF because it’s FCF is expected to decline by $11B. Last year’s P/FCF is 225.

vcpowerlaw

Big headline, but the key is in the structure,$5B up front, the rest tied to milestones, and a 10‑year AWS spend commitment. If you’re trying to interpret it as an AMZN investor, it may help to keep an eye on capex/FCF, AWS margins, and whether the agreement ends up making Anthropic meaningfully stickier to AWS over time.

armadillo_stocks

FCF is 330m, EV is 1.9b. Less than 6x FCF.

_hiddenscout

It's a lot of sentiment right now, so you're going against that. I think overall, they are some good buys, but you should know what you're buying. Like MSFT was selling off less around SaaS vs their FCF expense and market thinking copilot is a loser. I think some names like ADBE has real risk vs buying stuff that requires regulatory or is mission critical. I think we still need another quarter or two before the market flips or the narrative changes and there is still the risk of like OpenAI or Anthropic announcing a new thing that will continue to push sentiment down. I think most investors don't understand how some software works or how it's integrated, so there is a lot of the baby being thrown out with the bath water.

Complete_Water_890

People who gets it gets it and see it as the undervalued stock it is. All those here shitting on Reddit will just try to rationalize not investing every step of the way to $400. A company with \- 90% gross margin \- 70% YoY Growth \- $1B in FCF \- early monetization platform \- The source of all AI training data Yeah, what a dog shit company.

Defiant_Fold_919

Kohls achieved 1b in FCF in 2025 and market cap is 1.7b still bizarrely undervalued, high SI can run to 60

TheConstellationGuy

You have to ignore PE with CSU. It's highly distorted due to amoratization of the acquisitions and non-cash expenses. It's not trading at a 80x PE or whatever your stock app or google finance says. The main metric to use is the FCFA2S (Free Cash Flow Available to Shareholders). Historically, CSU traded at FCFA2S generally no lower than 25x and as high as 35x, usually being in the range of 30-35x FCF. Right now, it's at about 19x FCF. This is much lower than even the low point of where it has traded before. It's definitely not as cheap as Adobe or other SaaS names, but relative to CSU, it's quite a bargain.

Holiday-Bid8464

It is exactly this logic that causes bag holders. SNAP does not have a P/E ratio because they are not generating positive earnings per share. Revenues are slightly up YoY but they continue to operate at a loss, tho that loss is shrinking. FCF is increasing and their end cash position indicates there is runway to improve however debt and restructuring executional risks remain. They should discontinue the SNAP glasses and focus on trimming employee work force (which they have started), and selling ad space along with their subscription model. IMO SNAP is a buy at $5 or below with a moderate tolerance for risk.

_hiddenscout

I personally don't use PE very much. I look at P/FCF and PEG. The PEG is currently at like 1.4, which isn't bad by any means. P/FCF is higher than what I like, which I try to buy under 30. However, it's a rad company with a great theme and growth. Plus they are spinning off some of the business, so things should get cleaner.

Double_Compote_5519

their services division has been carrying them hard but that LEAP production bottleneck still makes me nervous about hitting those FCF targets

Tfcalex96

40% yoy revenue growth, 82% gross margins, and a quarter billion in FCF. The 1.25b in losses is from stock-based comp and R&D with a balance sheet that has only 60 million in debt and 1.6b in cash and cash equivalents. While the stock price is still too high, figma is way more profitable than any LLM.

Neither_Ice_4680

Fair point to raise. The $1.97B matures in 2028, not 2026 or 2027. Near-term amortization is only $20M per year. The debt structure carries incurrence-only covenants — no maintenance triggers — so there is no automatic acceleration from performance deterioration. The 2028 maturity is the risk, but it gives management two years of FCF generation to improve the balance sheet before refinancing. The TRA step-down in 2027 materially improves the debt reduction trajectory.

EdgeIntelligenceAU

Exactly — I look for repeatable cash generation, not just a path to it. The tell is whether FCF improves from operations without fresh dilution doing the heavy lifting.

Defiant_Fold_919

50 percent short interest while still FCF positive and now trending up

bibibabibu

The hilarious part is when the market has any form of 5% correction, some genius on reddit will say "you ain't seen nothing yet kids, we are still xxx% from 2008" Because you know, it's not like companies haven't grown actual revenues, earmings and FCF about 20-30x since then.

pennquaker18

No. It indicates corporate growth and FCF have been great. You don’t even begin to understand valuation.

AttilaTH3Hen

Instincts built upon decades of experience and some rational inversing of sentiment. When SAAS and tech is trading at 12-15x forward revenue, with massive FCF… it’s a generational opportunity.

Sir_Fragles

Here is a professional summary of the current situation and operational outlook for **Prairie Operating Co. ($PROP)** as of April 15, 2026, based on the latest Water Tower Research Insights Conference and SEC filings. ## **Prairie Operating Co. ($PROP): Operational & Financial Summary** ### **1. Financial Outlook & Capital Strategy** * **Cash Flow Inflection:** The company officially projects becoming **Free Cash Flow (FCF) positive in 2026**, with a significant financial inflection point expected in **H2 2026**. * **De-leveraging Priority:** Management has shifted its capital allocation strategy to prioritize **strengthening the balance sheet** and paying down the **Reserve-Based Lending (RBL)** facility over aggressive near-term acquisitions. * **Dilution Reduction:** A pivotal agreement regarding the Series F Convertible Preferred Shares has **reduced potential share dilution by over 40 million shares**, significantly stabilizing the capital structure. ### **2. Operational Performance** * **Production Stability:** The company maintains a steady operational plan utilizing **one rig and one frack crew** for the 2026 fiscal year. This conservative approach is designed to ensure efficiency regardless of oil price volatility. * **Asset Integration:** The integration of **Bayswater assets** and personnel is complete and deemed highly successful, resulting in improved operational synergies and cost-of-service reductions. * **Drilling Inventory:** Prairie holds a permitted inventory of **128 pads**, providing a clear drilling runway of over **two years** without the immediate need for new regulatory approvals. ### **3. Risk Management & Macro Environment** * **Downside Protection:** The company utilizes a robust **hedge book** and has locked in long-term contracts for essential services and materials, providing price protection and cost certainty through **2027**. * **Regulatory Climate:** In Colorado, permitting timelines have improved to a **12–18 month window**, supporting the company’s long-term development plans in the DJ Basin. * **Cost Efficiency:** Current operations are consistently **beating AFE (Authorization for Expenditure) targets**, indicating that wells are being drilled and completed below original budget estimates. ### **4. Market Valuation Context** * **Asset-to-Market Cap Disconnect:** Despite a current Market Cap of approximately **$97M**, the company’s **PV-10 reserves** (estimated at **$1.22B**) suggest a significant disconnect between intrinsic asset value and current equity pricing. * **Analyst Consensus:** Wall Street maintains a **1-Year Target Price of $3.50 – $3.75**, driven by the transition from a development-stage company to a cash-flow-generating producer. ### **Key Upcoming Catalyst** * **May 13, 2026:** Q1 Earnings Report. This will be the first formal confirmation of 2026 production volumes and the pace of debt reduction following the April settlement.

Defiant_Fold_919

Hey why is no one talking about Groupon right now Massive SI with uptrend starting and still FCF positive. This thing has multibagger potential

Defiant_Fold_919

Groupon stock has a 45 percent SI, while being FCF positive and now in an uptrend.

Defiant_Fold_919

GRPN stock, 43 pcnt SI, uptrend started, and still FCF positive

hammer85time

Purely anecdotal but have had decent growth with some CAC40 stocks during the past year - Engie, BNP Paribas, Airbus, Air liquide, publicis. Bought the last 3 during the past month since they had dipped nicely and seem to be recovering. Also, I identified Publicis using Claude to search for CAC40 stocks trading (1) near the floor (2) decent YoY growth (3) good FCF with minimal debt.

Forgetwhatitoldyou

I'd never heard of them, actually, but it seems like every week I hear of some optics company I'd never known before.  Today I read half a dozen articles on Credo lol.  Macom looks ok from a quick glance, but its Forward PE, P/B, and P/S are nosebleed territory, and decent debt and low FCF.  Growth rate of 35-40% is nice but doesn't justify the multiple.  

themattissue

I do not get how I am getting downvoted. Forward p/e of 36 is not cheap… PEG ratio is still at 1.2, P/FCF of 41x, gross margin is amazing but it’s net profit margin isn’t close to Meta’s because they will have a much harder time advertising as aggressively and getting data on its anonymous users is much harder. There are structural reasons Reddit will not likely get Meta’s net profit, at least not any time soon.

pennquaker18

P/E of 21x given the FCF conversion and earnings growth of many of the biggest companies (NVDA chief among them) is fine. Yes volumes were low today - there's clearly a squeezy element to many stocks.

_hiddenscout

I guess, but it's also communication services sector, which is like GOOGL, META, DIS, which also sold off. Could be some technical things like ETF selling off, impacting the some of the names. Probably less AI fears and just general selling in the sector. Also with the sale off, it's still kind of expensive. Not saying it's the worst, but even at today's price, the P/FCF is still at 30, with a forward PE of 30. I wonder if investors not wanting to pay for software feel the same for other names in the space. Nothing feels related to the company as much of just narrative surrounding some of this stuff.

_hiddenscout

Hhahah yeah. MWH is pretty rad company. I own a lot of these type of names like PWR, AGX, PRIM. MWH valuation isn't too bad and it's always cool to see a company IPO to use the money to pay down debt vs enrich themselves, especially since the company is already profitable. NXT is great because it's software and the stuff that moves the arrays, so it's not a panel play. They are growing a lot intentionality too. Another non solar name that is not an American company, but CDLR is really interesting. They are going to be ramping up pretty big the next year or so, they been building all their FCF on new ships. They do offshore wind installation, mainly in Europe. Which I think will be a big winner after this war. Right now they are exiting the high ramp up phase, since the ships are built.

dljmonkeyboiz

FCF is 💀 they’re gonna burn all their cash by year end

Gold-Guy-8

You mean the AI companies that have massive amounts of debt compared to ADBE which has a record FCF and its own built-in AI? I’ll bet on ADBE to maintain its 90% recurring revenue

niaqr

This is genius - people need to wise up to the reality here and look at this logically: 1. Enterprises need to be geniuses to harness AI and make something useful of it 2. If they were as smart as they say they are, they would be smarter than a bag of rocks 3. If they were in fact, smarter than a bag of rocks, they wouldn't have signed an SLA with the garbage that is service now in the first place. Anyone who's worked with it knows this by heart. 4. Therefore, they'll be regarded enough to keep resigning a new SLA rate - and we have the number on just how regarded these enterprises are 5. Servicenow's renewal rate is 98% and their FCF margins are 36% which implies a $190 price target just on FCF multiples alone 6. You'd be a complete idiot to bet against this FREE MONEY PRINTER of a company Jesus Christ

augustus331

Adobe generates roughly 13% of Microsoft's FCF at roughly 3.5% of its market cap. The valuation gap between the two is enormous and can't be explained by growth rate differentials alone. Microsoft is growing revenue \~17% vs. Adobe's \~10–12%, but that doesn't justify a 3.5–4x P/FCF premium. There are companies that are providing far better returns from Saaspocalypse narratives.

ShootsnLadders

I follow several creators who are giving different AIs capital to trade with and having them compete. Several of the Claude agents bought Service Now today, which I think is quite ironic. On its entry it wrote, “ServiceNow is the portfolio's first direct entry into enterprise workflow SaaS, and we're initiating because the market just handed us a gift wrapped in a category error. On April 8, Anthropic launched Claude Managed Agents, a cloud-hosted AI agent platform for enterprise. The market read this as "AI will replace SaaS" and sold NOW down 7.56% to $89.53, a 52-week low. Down 58% from its high of $211. What the selloff missed: ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform. This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. The valuation: 24x forward P/E against a 5-year average of 50 to 55x. That's a 50%+ discount to its own history. Still guiding roughly 20% subscription growth, 32% operating margins, 36% FCF margins. This is a strong business at an irrationally cheap multiple. Street consensus PT: $185, which is +107% from our entry.”

LushLustPin

Yeah this is a really good way to frame it. “Small cap” feels like a factor but it’s really just a zip code on the market map. I’ve noticed a lot of the flashy ones are basically revenue-at-all-costs with constant share issuance. Curious what you look for as proof of a real FCF path besides just management’s slide deck.

_hiddenscout

SNOW is cool, but i don't really find them unique or that different than something like data bricks or even PLTR. Most of these companies are just ETL's that load over the your data into a BI table that allows you to run different models on your data. Even with it being down like 46% in the past 6months, the stock still isn't even cheap, using fundamentals. Still looking at a forward PE of 83, PS of 10, P/FCF at 43 and PEG of 2.8 [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/snow/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/snow/statistics/) People will say "fundamentals don't matter", but I do think they do. They help you avoid over paying for something. Even at these levels, I find the stock expensive.

Obvious-Ad-3171

Ran $NVDA through my analysis tool. Diamond Rating 35/50 — Quality Stock, not overvalued by traditional metrics but P/E at 151 is pricing in perfection. Interesting insider data: Jensen has been moving massive blocks in December via "J" transactions (trust transfers, not open market sales). Classic wealth management move, not bearish signal. The real bear case: Blended fair value comes out \~$22 vs $182 current price. FCF is insane ($101B) but the market is pricing 10 years of perfect execution already. For $6K concentrated position — the business is real, but the valuation risk is also real. What's your cost basis?

dljmonkeyboiz

It’s losing money now .. FCF is gone

I_invest_in_AAPL

April 8th vs 9th, haha been there. On MU at 312 though... that's a tough one. Always tricky spotting the top/bottom on those hypergrowth names. For me, still thinking about where the FCF goes for my picks. Thinking more long-term for MSFT and even a little GOOGL, their moats still look wide even if the P/E is a bit stretched. TSLA, definitely agree on the regard strength. Wild ride for sure.

_hiddenscout

MSFT just has the openAI over hang. Just me theory around what is going on, is that since a lot of the hyperscalers are looking to spend almost all their FCF on capex it, the market isn't happy. Add in that like 40% of MSFT cloud backlog is OpenAI, with OpenAI being viewed as losing to anthropic. Then market looking at copilot as a loser. It's basically a lot of sentiment, but it's going to be a overhang on the company. Not saying it Google, but a lot of people where posting the same thing about Google like a year or two ago. The company has sound fundamentals and it's basically just going to take patience right now if you are investing.

microdosingrn

Tim Cook and Apple are so fucking smart. Not torching their FCF on this, just paying a pittance every year to buy whatever the best model is. Inference will be done locally by users on their own devices. Absolutely brilliant.

dljmonkeyboiz

FCF is gone .. TSLA losing money every quarter now

I_invest_in_AAPL

Interesting read. That kind of market cap hitting public markets at once, especially for companies with less traditional FCF profiles, could definitely be a test. I'm always looking at the moat and capital allocation more than the sizzle. Wonder what kind of P/E or FCF yield these companies will command out of the gate. I've got some holdings that might see a ripple if that much liquidity shifts. Not financial advice, just my two cents.

I_invest_in_AAPL

Interesting read. That kind of market cap hitting public markets at once, especially for companies with less traditional FCF profiles, could definitely be a test. I'm always looking at the moat and capital allocation more than the sizzle. Wonder what kind of P/E or FCF yield these companies will command out of the gate. I've got some holdings that might see a ripple if that much liquidity shifts. Not financial advice, just my two cents.

I_invest_in_AAPL

Interesting read. That kind of market cap hitting public markets at once, especially for companies with less traditional FCF profiles, could definitely be a test. I'm always looking at the moat and capital allocation more than the sizzle. Wonder what kind of P/E or FCF yield these companies will command out of the gate. I've got some holdings that might see a ripple if that much liquidity shifts. Not financial advice, just my two cents.

miguel_equivara

The PE isn't even the right metric here Tesla's GAAP earnings are so distorted by regulatory credits and one-time items that trailing PE is almost meaningless. The honest number is FCF. In Q4 2025 Tesla generated about $1.97B in FCF. Annualize that, apply it to a $1.1T market cap, and you're at roughly 140x FCF on a business that just missed delivery estimates, has 50K units sitting in inventory, and watched its highest-margin energy segment drop 38% sequentially. The PE looks bad. The FCF multiple is worse.

Good_Tap6905

Lol well said. But jokes aside, the situation with 50*k* vehicles sitting in inventory is exactly what my model predicted. Whether you call them “three-wheeled taxis” or unsold Model 3, the real issue is that working capital is tied up. At an average selling price of $45k that means $2.2 billion in cash is sitting idle in the parking lot, while free cash flow (FCF) is already under pressure due to spending on H100 computing chips.

Artistic_Item_5710

Check Impax Asset Management (LSE: IPX), they manage in £24B in energy transition-related assets in public markets, private markets and fixed income. I expect their AUM to grow in the coming quarters as more investors seek exposure to clean energy and other transition-related investment. Of note, Impax has $0 debt, has over 20% EBITDA margin, 56% ROIC, 16% FCF, and trading 6 P/E (45% of marketcap is cash).

_hiddenscout

Haven't really dug into either of them too much, but I'm a big valuation person. Like, at the end of the day, you are buying a piece of a business. To me, WM just seems more on the expensive end of things. Like the PEG is 2.5, P/FCF is 33. Forward PE is still at like 28. So you paying a bit of a premium for a great company. Not the worst thing, but just you aren't really buying "low". Republic Services is more expensive based off those as well. PEG is 3.69, Forward PE is like 30, and P/FCF is like 28. [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rsg/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/rsg/statistics/) [https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wm/statistics/](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wm/statistics/) If I had to pick one of the two, even though it's more expensive, RSG has better things I like in companies. Like RSG has better ROIC and tiny bit better margin. But for me, I'd pass on both at these levels, just don't seem like the returns will be as great buying here.

ElectricalGene6146

Yes if you use debt well it CAN have a better impact to your cash flows, obviously. But arguing that a company is healthier because they took on more risk and borrowed money is one of the more outrageous arguments. AVAV at this point can always take out debt if they need to, the opposite is much less true with companies already hampered in debt (and negative FCF).

ValueEquities

$100B FCF + services scale is why dips keep getting bought. though only I would argue at \~30–35x FCF, it’s not really cheap

_SirShackleton_

For pure gas plays I tend to invest in quality leaders like EQT. They are not cheap tho unfortunately. If you want an underdog have a look at Harbour Energy Plc, great gas assets in NorthSea and super low lifting costs in the british/norwegian coast shelf. They recently acquired longlife oil assets from LLOG in the Gulf of Mexico so they have assets in multiple markets opening arbitrage options. FCF will be insane. Coterra is a nice mixed play in my opinion. They will merge with Devon and have a decent amount of gas in their future portfolio. Long term LNG deals with UK linked to TTF pricing. Personally i hold CVX, DVN, EOG and OXY.

milkplantation

I'm finding it difficult to understand how this differs in any meaningful way from value investing. It seems you're suggesting that value investing hasn't evolved beyond Benjamin Graham's philosophy and that couldn't be further from the truth. That comes across as pretty disingenuous. Value investing today is wonderful companies at a fair price. Graham's concept of "cheap P/E” was updated to look for a good cash yield via FCF Yield, DCF, ROIC, adjusted EBITDA. Value investors want to invest in understandable businesses with a strong balance sheet, consistent earnings, high sustained returns on capital, and a meaningful margin of safety. I think anyone looking to learn more about this framework might be better served by reading something like Lawrence Cunningham's *"Quality Investing"* or Bruce Greenwalds, *"Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond."*