FCF

MutaliskGluon

booking future orders that havent tecnhically hit the books yet as Accounts payable to make every quarters revenue appear higher than it actually is (sort of like a ponzi scheme but with future sales instead of future investments). As long as their sales keep growing, they can keep doing that. But eventually sales will flatline, or customers will cancel orders, and then the whole issue becomes apparent and you have a disastrous sales guide. Thats the short of it. Theres some weird relationships going on between their AP AR and FCF that are a red flag.

CanadianYoloArtist

If you aren't buying $PBI at these levels tomorrow y'all are insane. P/FCF trading well below market averages. Business is damn near recession and tariff proof. The current management team is laser focused on delivering capital back to shareholders by paying down debt, increasing dividends and executing share repurchase plans in addition to working on plans to start growing revenue. This turnaround and the GEC exit have been amazing to watch play out. This is easily a $20 stock in the next 12 months. All aboard the double train!

FNFactChecker

Which is reflected in their P/S :) SNAP is dogshit financially, but PINS revenue was up 20% YoY from FY23 to FY24 and they went EPS-positive. RDDT's revenue was up 60% YoY. Reddit stock trades at \~3x the P/S multiple of Pinterest. META grew revenue at 23% YoY, but is an FCF machine, so naturally it gets a higher multiple than PINS.

_hiddenscout

$CW * Reported sales of $806 million, up 13%, operating income of $129 million, up 29%, operating margin of 16.0%, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68; * Adjusted operating income of $134 million, up 34%; * Adjusted operating margin of 16.6%, up 260 basis points; * Adjusted diluted EPS of $2.82, up 42%; and * Record new orders of $1.0 billion, up 13%, reflecting a 1.26x book-to-bill. **Raised Full-Year** **2025 Adjusted Financial Outlook:** * Sales guidance increased to new range of 8% to 9% growth (previously 7% to 8%), which continues to reflect growth in the majority of Curtiss-Wright's end markets; * Operating income guidance increased to new range of 13% to 16% growth (previously 10% to 12%); * Operating margin guidance range increased by 40 basis points to 18.3% to 18.5%, now up 80 to 100 basis points compared with the prior year; * Diluted EPS guidance increased to new range of $12.45 to $12.80, now up 14% to 17% (previously $12.10 to $12.40, or 11% to 14%); * Free cash flow (FCF) guidance range increased by $10 million to $495 million to $515 million, which continues to reflect greater than 105% FCF conversion; and * Full-year 2025 guidance includes the potential direct impacts from tariffs on our operations as well as mitigating actions. "We achieved strong growth in the majority of our end markets, accentuated by the timing of naval defense revenues which drove a better than expected increase of 15% in our A&D markets. Additionally, we benefited from a stronger than anticipated operational performance in our Defense Electronics segment, which in combination, greatly contributed to 42% growth in diluted EPS. We were also pleased to start the year with strong momentum in orders, reaching a record quarterly high of more than $1 billion. This performance continues to reflect strong demand in our Aerospace & Defense and commercial nuclear markets." "Overall, we are confident in our ability to achieve strong growth and profitability this year. Building on the strength of our first quarter results, we have raised our full-year outlook and now expect to generate total sales growth of 8% to 9%, operating margin expansion of 80 to 100 basis points, and diluted EPS growth of 14% to 17%. Furthermore, we continue to maintain an efficient balance sheet, with ample liquidity, to execute on our disciplined capital allocation strategy. Curtiss-Wright remains well positioned to deliver long-term profitable growth for our shareholders."

persua

Haven't taken a deep dive but first glance seems like FCF growth is accelerating. Why don't you like it?

CannaVestments

Overall a solid start to 2025 for Trulieve with results ahead of expectations and an industry-leading margin profile. OpEx was elevated with new store openings (+6 QoQ and +33 YoY) and now additional campaign contributions ($23M in Q1) as Trulieve once again leads the adult-use ballot effort in Florida, this time for 2026. The challenge of 280e obligations remains pivotal, with the uncertain tax position up to $501M and a very different cash flow profile depending on the outcome ($51M in OCF w/o 280e payments vs -$5M if 280e taxes were paid). The FL business clearly continues to lead the way, operating efficiently in the face of price compression in the state as margins remain near multi-year highs. Full review: **Revenue:**  QoQ: $301M to $298M / YoY: $298M to $298M *Down 1% sequentially and flat YoY was ahead of consensus ($294M), led by 6 store openings in the quarter (3-FL, 2-OH, 1-AZ). Note that Trulieve has opened 33 additional stores compared to last year (229 vs 196) reflecting that new store openings are mostly offsetting same-store-sales declines. Retail:wholesale split was 95:5.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:**  QoQ: $111M to $109M / YoY: $106M to $109M *Down 1.8% sequentially but up 2.8% compared to last year, well ahead of expectations ($97M). Margin was very strong at 37%, flat sequentially and up from 36% last year.* **Gross Margins:**  QoQ: 62% to 62% / YoY: 58% to 62% *Another industry-leading posting here, with the scale of the vertical FL business continuing to pay dividends in the face of price compression in the state.* **Operating Expenses:**  QoQ: $186M to $150M / YoY: $128M to $150M *Down sequentially but up YoY, with adult-use campaign contributions in FL driving a lot of the changes ($9M last year, $55M in Q4, and $23M here in Q1 as trulieve starts to spend for the 2026 ballot.) Adjusting out, would have been $119M last year, $131M in Q4 and $127M here in Q1.* **Operational Cash Flow:**  QoQ: $31M to $51M / YoY: $139M to $51M *Lots of fluctuations around tax-payments and campaign contributions. $51M in operational cash generation was aided by $57M in unpaid taxes that went towards the uncertain tax position/income tax payable, but also included the $23M spent on campaign contributions. Adjusting for both, adjusted OCF was +$17M in Q1. CapEx was $17M to start the year so adjusted FCF was essentially break-even and $34M on a reported basis.* **Cash:**  QoQ: $299.2M to $328.5M / YoY: $320.3M to $328.5M *Cash position rises with OCF generation, but so do the liabilities. Uncertain tax position now sits at 501M, highlighting the importance of their challenge of 280e obligations along with $479.9M of debt outstanding.*

_hiddenscout

CDRE might be something you are interested in. Here's their latest investor presentation: [https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/\_be377fc1d70b37944c0e6c0b8a2e658a/cadreholdings/db/1086/10412/pdf/Cadre+Investor+Presentation+March+2025.pdf](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_be377fc1d70b37944c0e6c0b8a2e658a/cadreholdings/db/1086/10412/pdf/Cadre+Investor+Presentation+March+2025.pdf) Part of why I bought them recently is that they acquired a few lines of business around nuclear safety, it's kind of a play on the nuclear boom. They've only been public for a few years now, but they are FCF positive. Revenue has been increasing nicely and the nuclear stuff should hopefully be a good tailwind for them. [https://quickfs.net/company/CDRE:US](https://quickfs.net/company/CDRE:US)

elgrandorado

People downvoting Mutalisk over stating reality is crazy. It's a company sitting at a 30x FCF, 30x PE multiples while sitting on low to negligible single digit revenue growth and single digit EPS growth. You know what we call that in the business? A mature business with a multiple around 40% lower valuation. They are the textbook definition of overvalued, and doing buybacks at these valuations is the equivalent of lighting shareholder value on fire. Gravity affects all stocks, and Apple won't be the exception to the rule here.

TimeTravelingChris

I believe you but they posted a profit of $15MM in Q1 with $20MM in FCF. So it's doable for them to handle that just fine. In theory. I mean it's been beaten down for a reason but that is a lot of cash flow given their market cap. Interesting to watch.

TimeTravelingChris

I mean, if they are clearing $20MM in FCF a quarter does that matter? Honest question.

vincentsigmafreeman

Uber’s looking strong, no doubt. That FCF margin is wild. But if you’re asking when to slow down—maybe it’s time to. Have a number where you take a breath. No shame in locking in wins.

salty0waldo

I have been holding primarily due to its FCF and honestly negative sentiment despite stable operating profits. Sure, they aren’t a hyper grower but there is a ton of market share. I’m just salty s/

RampantPrototyping

They can buy back almost 25% of their float with authorized buybacks amd FCF so I might pick some up and hold for a few years just based on that. Its not the growth stock it once was though

serodi03

FCF for the quarter also went from ~4 B in 2024 to negative 8 B in 2025

CapitalGains

Revenue peaked because of their franchising model and how they report revenue for financial reporting purposes. When a company franchises a store they do not report the underlying sales (e.g., hamburgers, fries) from that franchise as revenue on the income statement. Rather, they only report the royalties/franchise fees remitted from the store owner as revenue (which is what your link above is capturing). This is why I referenced "underlying sales," which McD's discloses as Systemwide sales, that reflects the underlying sales activity at the stores. McD's heavily uses franchises and has increasingly shift towards this business models over the past decade. In fact, company-owned stores have declined 67% since 2013 and franchise stores have increased 30%. That's why their top line revenue on the income statement has declined. However, McD's underlying sales have increased, and earnings and FCF per share have also increased considerably over the past decade. They disclose all of this in the annual report. It's often helpful to go beyond the top line numbers to really understand what's going as the financial accounting methods and measurements used to generate those numbers impact how we interpret them.

elgrandorado

Not great for a company with stagnant revenues trading at 30x FCF and 30x+ P/E.

creemeeseason

Even after this rally, TOITF is trading at 25x TTM FCF. And growing it at 25%+ annually.

Moral_

Akash at the end with one of the analysts questions all but said "the stock price is too low". The question was regarding why returning the 100% FCF back to shareholders. Hopefully QC can reduce the float down to 1.05 in the next couple years before '29 rolls around.

joe-re

Reality for me is the value of the business in relation to its price. Income statement, cash flow, P/E, P/FCF growth, margin, secured pipeline, comparison to competitors. It has little to do with my personal feelings for the CEO. His announcements are only relevant insofar as they are based on reality. That's why I short Tesla. (*insert we are not the same meme here*)

Sad-Objective573

$SGMA – This “undervalued gem” might actually be a value trap. Here’s why I’m staying away. Let’s break this down for anyone eyeing SigmaTron International ($SGMA) as a swing or long-term play. The Business: $SGMA is an EMS (electronic manufacturing services) company. They build components and assemble products for other companies — basically the silent middleman in the supply chain. They’ve got facilities in the U.S., Mexico, China, and Vietnam. Sounds global and scalable, right? Except… EMS is a brutally competitive, low-margin business, and they’re not exactly leading the pack. Longevity ≠ Strength: They’ve been public since 1994 and still trade as a microcap stock with barely any liquidity. No reverse splits, sure, but also no serious price appreciation over decades. That’s not a strength — that’s stagnation. The Financial “Glow-Up”: They posted $25.96M in free cash flow in 2024. Not bad. But that’s a one-off turnaround from negative FCF the year prior. The business is lumpy, margins are razor-thin, and one weak quarter or lost client could wipe that all out. Also, EMS providers are highly dependent on customer demand — if a major customer cuts back, it stings hard. Chart Hype: Yes, it bounced off a double bottom and is flirting with MA50. Traders say it’s working toward MA200, which is ~80% up from here. But historically? Every spike has been short-lived. This is a classic “pump-and-fizzle” setup. Low float = volatility bait. Proceed with caution. Insider Ownership (a double-edged sword): Insiders own close to 20%. Sounds bullish, right? But that also means fewer shares available to trade — and IF insiders sell into a rally, retail gets trapped. No Moat. No Buzz. No Real Growth. There’s no innovation moat here. They’re not riding the AI wave, they’re not in cutting-edge chip design, and they’re not expanding aggressively. Just a quiet legacy EMS company doing contract work while competitors race ahead. ⸻ TL;DR Don’t let low float and one good year fool you — $SGMA is not the diamond in the rough it might seem. This looks like a value trap wrapped in a swing trader’s dream. Watch for dilution, weak volume, and chart fakeouts. Might be a fun trade if you’re quick — but as a long-term pick? I’m out.

creemeeseason

$87 million in FCF annualized out is $348 million. The market cap was $2.6 billion before earnings. That's a 13% FCF yield. Plus growth.

Far_Sentence_5036

$PLBY Playboy Group DD Good work from Uzi Capital here. Some good Due Dilligence (DD) . I think degens behind wendies can get behind it. I’m a de-spac microcap with a chequered history and a prolonged period of poor share price performance (-98% from 2021 highs). I’ve been ignored for years. There’s been no online write ups for 2 years. Never discussed on Microcap Club. Nothing detailed on X (Twitter). There are 2 blog write ups in 2023: one neutral, one positive - both are outdated. Investor letters: only Greenlight has mentioned me, I was described as an “unsuccessful investment” in Q3 2022. Value Investor Club: I was pitched once in 2021, as a short. Just one sell side analyst covers me and initiated a couple of months ago. I’m also a sin stock so anyone with an ESG mandate can’t own me. Yet I’m one of the most recognised consumer brands in the world, with over 70 years of heritage and a lot has changed in the last 6 months. I was distressed until a recent debt restructuring and a transformational licensing deal with a strategic partner drastically improved my financial footing. The strategic partner is an unlisted, online behemoth, with over 70m DAUs. The licensing deal means I’ll earn at least 3x my market cap in 100% margin licensing fees over the life of the contract, with further upside if the 25% net profit exceeds the $20m per year minimum guarantee. The strategic partner has a taken a board seat. This insider, who has the deepest insights into my largest profit stream, is buying 30% of the company at a 50% premium! I suspect they see the strategic value in my brand and/or expect to end up paying me materially more than the minimum guarantee, via the 25% profit share. I’m now free cash flow positive, and focused on growing my core business, which is very high quality. I’m going back to my roots. I only have one remaining non-core asset to sell and the proceeds from that should wipe out most of my debt. My remaining core business is solely focused on licensing my iconic brand. There will no M&A and after retiring debt, free cashflow will go exclusively to shareholder returns. $20m of overhead (plus $3m SBC) is all that is needed to support this. Minimum guarantees provide downside protection, accounting for 85% of today’s licensing revenues. I’m confident that I can re-invigorate growth, now that I have the bandwidth and financial resources to do so. My China business has been weighed down by both problematic licensing partners and macro headwinds. New Chinese licensing partners have now been in place for 12 months and are ramping up. Until very recently I had neglected 2 key licensing verticles: gaming & land based entertainment (LBE) which were big revenue contributors pre-covid. My management team are also excited by the monetisation potential in new untapped verticles. Licensing revenues with c.90% gross margins combined with minimal capex, interest expense, cash taxes (thanks for multiples of my market cap in NOLs) and no working capital needs means that 80% of incremental revenue growth should drop through to free cash flow. Scenario analysis, assuming I’m a debt-free pure licensing business: A) No growth: => c.7x FCF, with c.40% FCF margins. B) LBE & gaming recover to pre-covid levels: => 4-5x FCF, with c.50% FCF margins. C) China, LBE and gaming recover to 50% of pre-covid levels: => c.4x FCF, with c.55% FCF margins. D) China recovers to pre-covid levels: => c.3x FCF, with c.60% FCF margins. E) China, LBE and gaming recover to pre-covid levels: => c.2x FCF, with c.65% FCF margins I’ll let you decide what the right multiple is for a pure play licensing business, with 90% gross margin, 40-60% FCF margins, with downside protected by minimum guarantees. Who Am I?……I’m Plby Group Inc (PLBY) aka Playboy Disclaimer: The author owns securities in PLBY….DYODD, nothing written is investment advice.

No-Sympathy3276

IMHO he is the Robert Maxwell of our time. It’s unlikely to end well for him. That dude tried to hide his business mistakes by pumping his share price with all kinds of loans, borrowings and option trading which inevitably and eventually unraveled. Now that the walls are closing in, the full extent of what has gone on behind closed doors, will slowly and then quickly be revealed. Dude has bet the house on red 10 times in a row and won. That can’t continue indefinitely. We don’t know what is happening but logic would suggest hundreds of millions are being burned in options premiums to keep the share price up. Given the total collapse in the car business profitability and the weak robotaxi story, combined with a mega bubble valuation, it’s the only rational explanation. It also fits with the coordinated timing of call buying and PR announcements. Sometimes it’s possible to catch a break down the road and recover but it looks like too many wheels have come off now. Bottom line, people don’t want the cars any more and robotaxis business looks like a dud and is not going to generate the tens of billions of FCF the stock market will demand. As for the robots. Please, grow up. Add in a failing Twitter and you have a guy who is going to run out of cash eventually. Only thing that could save him would be a continuation of the bubble stock market. Sell more shares in hot air to raise money. But that looks less likely in the face of a looming global recession. We’ll see but it doesn’t look good.

Luka-Step-Back

That’s a hilarious amount of debt. They have $5M cash on hand and $586M total debt. I get that includes leases, but yikes. Also, this company does not make money. They had $110M in negative FCF ttm.

MutaliskGluon

AP AR FCF relationship. Add in coreweave shadiness. Add in the fact that NVDA has a history of double orders and channel stuffing.

TheDemoz

Aren’t they both profitable now and have massive FCF?

_YGGDRAS1L

The yield on cost is high, as a result of the company's lower overall valuation given regional and political risks. Which are vastly overblown, and I would argue notably less risky than European companies, who rarely ever have their risk priced appropriately. The yield as a percentage of the company's FCF is actually fairly conservative. There should be little to no worry that the company will be fully nationalized. While the government does use them for a paycheck, and frequently leans on them to sell oil at a discount to market rate to keep costs to citizens low, fully nationalizing the company would be a death sentence for Brazil being able to secure any meaningful international investment ever again. Even Lula, who is about as radical left as the country will get, has admitted that the company needs to remain available to foreign investors. At worst, you'll see something like what he's pushing, being a foreign distribution tax. Although that's still lower than what Canada takes from its oil companies sending dividends out of country.

_YGGDRAS1L

They don't return "so much of its value." They have a fairly conservative policy mandating a minimum of 25% of their FCF returned to shareholders, up to 45% assuming very specific debt targets that they're currently under. They hold on to plenty of cash, the yield just looks high because they're not valued like a US-based company thanks to the geopolitical "risk."

joe4942

Because why own a company with $100B income at 27 P/FCF when you could own PLTR with $460M income and 221.60 P/FCF?

LiqvidNyquist

I've been writing CC's on DOL as well. I've come to the conclusion that it's a not an ideal CC play, the bid-ask spread on options is insanely high so you're going to lose a buck or more a share rolling, although you can usually ask for say 20-25 cents better than the current bid/ask and still get filled. I mean, look at the bid-ask spread for options on a high volume american stock like NVDA or AMD and they're only ten cents apart for similar pemiums. A lot of stocks on TSE suffer the same problem, which makes rolling that much harder to stay profitiable. One thing you want to look at is intrinsic vs extrinsic. Current price 171.30 ish. Look at the extrinsic on what you buy (the 165) - 6.30. Buying to close costs say 8.20 so $1.90 of extrinsic. But you can sell a 170 call for June at around $7.25. That means the June call is 1.30 instrinsic and 5.95 extrinsic (i.e. the "free" money you make by taking on the risk). So it's kind of like you spent $5 bucks to get an $5 increase in the CC strike (which means zero net gain if the stock goes up $5) but gained a net of (5.95 - 1.90 = 4.05) extrinsic. So if the stock stays where it is, maybe you could do it again in another moneth or two and gain your $5 instrinsic back, but that's a gamble. Historically speaking, the 30 day increase in price we saw last month is out of the ordinary, but whether you gamlbe it's a historical aberration or an expected response to FCF and earning under the US tariff conditions is your call. But if it goes down then you spent $5 on instrinsic rolling for nothing.

ash_chess

I thought AAPL always had the higher FCF?

joe4942

AMZN and GOOGL are nearly the same market caps, but GOOGL produces nearly double the income, nearly triple the FCF. Most of AMZN revenue is not profit because it's a retailer, and it's cyclical.

leporello

I think potential downside is priced in. They’re a dividend and FCF machine.

phooonix

Bro TGT is trading at 6x FCF and 7X EV/EBITA. P/E of 10. Yes it's bad but they are priced for BK.

InevitableAd2436

When a company cuts CapEx it’s usually because they know they’re in for hard times and need to preserve capital. It’s literally a message to shareholders that they’re not doing good and in order to protect FCF, they have to cut CapEx

Pathogenesls

It's still making money, both net income and FCF were positive for the quarter.

drew-gen-x

AT&T reported earnings this morning. EPS $0.61 beat est $0.49 Revenue $30.63B beat est $30.34B FCF Margins 15.6% up from 10.59% YOY

siddsp

The stock is mostly fairly priced and technically not undervalued if you're looking at a DCF analysis. As an example, FCF growth can be projected to 8.5% for the next 5 years (this includes the effect of buybacks), and for the 5 years after that, we can take the growth rate without buybacks, halve it, and then readjust by the multiplier buybacks gives us. This gives us a growth rate of \~7% for years 5-10. Then for the terminal growth rate, we can put 3.5% for growth in perpetuity. If we have a discount rate of 7.2%, this gives AutoZone a valuation of $3678.00, and the current price is $3678.66, so the market is pricing the stock efficiently, even when factoring in the buybacks and low volatility (beta).

yldf

Numbers aren’t that bad, FCF is still positive. Also, the stock is known to behave irrationally. From a value perspective, it’s impossible to argue buying that. But it’s one of the most irrational stocks, numbers play almost no role in their valuation.

cannabull1055

They definitely have blame. It is NOT all a lack of government reform. That is most of it but these companies have been completely mismanaged. They knew how people lived in Canada. They were raising billions and diluting shareholders to increase production for Canada. They were not wise with shareholders money at all and this was many years ago. They STILL haven't change their ways. The executive teams at these companies have alot of blame. Look at Green Thumb. They are conservative and managed well and they make tons of FCF because of it. Look at High Tide. Look at Aurora's turnaround. They cleaned their act up completely. Blaming it solely on government is just wrong.

A3815

I agree with your conclusion. The spike correlates with Bessent saying he expects reduction of the tariffs against China in the very near future. I think Bessent is front running an announcement to give the President some distance. I think the change in policy has more to do with the President's meeting with Walmart, Home Depot, and Target CEOs yesterday than trying to save TSLA. My assumption is Walmart discussed the very obvious disparity in tariff treatment between Apple and Walmart along with the inflationary pressure of the tariffs. The uptick in futures tonight is a result of the change in tone towards Powell I think when guys like Ackman and Dimon start pushing a financial Armageddon/financial nuclear winter narrative even the dumbest densest representatives gets a concept of an idea that things are getting bad. That leads to pressure on the administration. While I have floor, it kind of looks like about $600m of Tesla's FCF of about $660m came from government subsidies.... EV credits... huh

FippyDark

problem is their FCF was 700 million....stock is valued at 750 billion with dropping revenues etc. Its insane valuation even after the drops. we're in a bubble. It will burst some day

Vitiligogoinggone

Don’t worry about the earnings, worry about where all that FCF went.   The stock just got SUPER pricey

Hot-You-7366

their FCF would be shite if it wasnt for paring capex

yldf

Actually I don’t find the numbers that bad. FCF still positive…

30PercentIRR

I had LMT and GE puts and RTX calls. Nothing on NOC. When I said inverse me, y'all should have listened. Not that I think that the Earnings were that great for LMT (I'll admit GE was pretty strong), FCF and CFO both down a lot vs prev year and outlook basically came with a disclaimer that they just chose to ignore any negative impacts from anything in it..

30PercentIRR

LMT revenue and net earnings beat but CFO and FCF down, guidance reaffirmed but outlook "doesn't reflect tariffs or recent Next Gen Air Dominance announcement (which they lost) or executive orders". Very mixed bag but LMT bouncing hard though, I guess because NOC was so terrible?

Ok_Cry7572

AMZN by 2029 is expected to have: Revenue of $1 Trillion per year Earnings of $140 Billion year year FCF of $155 Billion per year.

MutaliskGluon

corporations were able to finance absurd amount of debts at low rates in 2020 and 2021. This improved their balance sheets significantly and also lowered their net interest rates a lot. Then in 2022 instead of having to raise money at higher rates, or pay higher rates and have FCF drop, they were able to weather the storm significantly better than previous bear markets. Combined with the AI bubble kicking off and the wealth effect kicking in, corporations performed much much better than you would expect based on how hard main street was hit.

_hiddenscout

I mean, in this past year, SPOT when from -3.01 a share to 5.69 a share. It missed estimates, but that is pretty impressive. Based off estimates, they are looking to like double it with the expectation being 11.40 this year. With them now making FCF, they are also now a offering a single year of high ROIC. Also improved gross margins. [https://quickfs.net/company/SPOT:US](https://quickfs.net/company/SPOT:US) Free cash flow also like doubled from last year to this year. Spotify also has a free service, so even if people decide to not longer pay, they will still use the service and in a way, SPOT will just end up selling more ads. I do agree with the fact that is is an expensive stock and something I wouldn't buy, but it is really impressive what they did this past year in terms of EPS and FCF.

permanent_pixel

Alpha Spread: GuruFocus: ValueInvesting.io: GuruFocus (Projected FCF): Macroaxis:

Bullsarethebestguys

Space is definitely going to be huge but RKLB and ASTS are not the plays here. RKLB is burning through cash with negative FCF of $24M last quarter. Their revenue growth looks good on paper but they're still losing money on every launch. ASTS is even worse - pure speculation with no real revenue. They keep diluting shareholders with convertible notes and ATM offerings. $460M in new debt last quarter alone. The tech sounds cool but they're years away from actual commercial service. The real space plays are the established defense contractors and satellite companies. They have the infrastructure, government contracts, and actual profits. The small launchers like RKLB are in a race to the bottom on pricing. Quantum computing is interesting but way too early. The tech isn't there yet. Cybersecurity is more promising - look at companies focused on AI-powered threat detection and zero trust architecture. But stick to profitable ones with actual revenue, not pre-revenue moonshots. Focus on companies making money now, not promises of future tech. The space SPAC bubble already popped once. Don't get caught up in the hype.

Friendly-Excuse400

Totally agree on IAG. Their new mine in Canada is just coming up to full production and will be the third largest in Canada. On top of that, it is highly automated and will be a low cost production operation. At $3,300/oz gold price, earnings in 2026 is ~$2.50/share with $1.2B of FCF. At a $7.83 share price, it trades at about 3x FWD P/E with a $4.5B market cap. Hugely undervalued. If it revalues to a normal valuation of other gold miners at 15x earnings, the share price is likely worth upper $30/share. IMO, I think gold will exceed $4,000/oz by the end of 2025 if Trump keeps up his tariff fantasies. IAG has a lot of upside.

Tomoshen

Oil companies are basically printing money machines when prices are decent. OXY's FCF yield is ridiculous compared to most of the market. It's about as straightforward as investments get - they pull valuable stuff from the ground at costs way below what they can sell it for. When you've got the Permian assets OXY has, that's basically a license to print cash.

Eulogiii

100.625 million to 1.097 billion, a 989.73% increase lol so they're trading around 11x FCF giving you $0.99 FCF/Share

Boltskii

Chase had a FCF of -42 billion last year, they must be a worse business than GME.

thenuttyhazlenut

Oil companies pull money from the ground. The FCF is insane for some of them.

Elitist_Daily

ok, so /u/Such_Thing7698 what is the graph on the bottom of this TV screenshot if it's not FCF?

TendiesTendy

SoFi FCF: -1,283,424 GME FCF: +129,600

Elitist_Daily

FCF and cash on hand are not the same thing. Also, sofi doesn't have a cargo cult investor base it can regularly fleece for money. Yet.

TendiesTendy

They have less FCF than GME, so a bank is losing to a video game retailer?

GoZukkYourself

Netflix Q1'25 Earnings Highlights: 🔹 Revenue: $10.54B (Est. $10.50B) 🟢; UP +13% YoY 🔹 Diluted EPS: $6.61 (Est. $5.68) 🟢; UP +25% YoY 🔹 Operating Income: $3.35B (Est. $3.00B) 🟢; UP +27% YoY 🔹 Oper. Margin: 31.7% (Est. 28.6%) 🟢 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $2.66B (Est. $2.04B) 🟢; UP +24% YoY 🔹 Net Cash from Operating Activities: $2.79B; UP +26% YoY Q2'25 Guidance: 🔹 Revenue: $11.04B (Est. $10.88B) 🟢; UP +15% YoY Regional Revenue Performance: 🔹 U.S. & Canada (UCAN): $4.62B; UP +9% YoY 🔹 EMEA: $3.41B; UP +15% YoY 🔹 LATAM: $1.26B; UP +8% YoY 🔹 APAC: $1.26B; UP +23% YoY Strategic & Business Updates: 🔸 Revenue and operating income beat guidance due to higher-than-expected ad and subscription revenue and timing of expenses 🔸 Company reiterates 2025 full-year guidance: Revenue $43.5B–$44.5B and Operating Margin 29% 🔸 Netflix tracking above midpoint of 2025 guidance due to favorable FX 🔸 Successfully launched in-house ad tech platform (Netflix Ads Suite) in the U.S. on April 1 🔸 Ads suite rollout planned across remaining countries in 2025 🔸 Q1 launch of WWE RAW ranked weekly Top 10 globally and in 29 countries 🔸 Upcoming Taylor vs. Serrano 3 boxing rematch to stream July 11 🔸 Opted into second NFL game for Christmas Day 2025 🔸 Full-year FCF guidance unchanged at $8B Content & Engagement: 🔸 Q1 featured hit shows like Adolescence (124M views), Back in Action (146M), and Counterattack (59M) 🔸 Launch of new content across genres and languages: SAKAMOTO DAYS, American Murder, Toxic Town, Envious S2, The Trauma Code, etc. 🔸 New local content in key markets including UK, Mexico, and France contributing to increased engagement 🔸 Final season of Squid Game premieres June 27, 2025 alongside updated Squid Game: Unleashed game Capital & Shareholder Returns: 🔹 Share Buybacks: 3.7M shares repurchased for $3.5B 🔹 Gross Debt: $15.1B 🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $7.2B 🔹 $13.6B remaining under share repurchase authorization 🔹 $1B debt maturity in Q2 to be paid using prior bond proceeds Executive Commentary: 🔸 “We’re off to a strong start in 2025, with revenue and profit growth exceeding expectations. Our content slate is resonating globally and our ad business is scaling well.” – Netflix Earnings Letter 🔸 “No change to our 2025 guidance; tracking above the midpoint due to favorable FX and engagement strength.”

Complete-Disaster513

Every time I get worried about NVIDIA maybe being overvalued I always like to remind my self of that FCF number. That’s real and honestly impossible to comprehend. It really is beautiful. They are the most important company for the next 10 years imo.

RiPFrozone

Let’s look at the financials: (scary I know) At its peak Cisco was trading at 555b (1.03 trillion inflation adjusted) with revenue of $18.93b ($35.16b inflation adjusted) net income of $2.6b (4.83b inflation adjusted). Nvidia at its peak was around 3.7 trillion with revenue of $130.5b and net income of $72.88b. If you want an even deeper understanding of the difference calculate Cisco’s FCF and compare it to Nvidia’s $60b in FCF. Cisco was selling shovels anyone could and did design, Nvidia sells shovels other companies try to design and by the time they catch up, they are a generation behind.

rcbjfdhjjhfd

The analyst also highlighted apprehensions regarding Tesla's free cash flow (FCF), which is anticipated to become negative. This forecast raises questions about how the company will finance its ambitious artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives going forward.

MutaliskGluon

I mean the fact their AP is growing at an absurd rate and they aren't seeing the usual impacts to FCF that usually accompanies it. To be fair, I haven't been doing accounting stuff for around 10 years now, but I've read some breakdowns that really really made me do a double take. Then you add on the fact NVDA has done similar things in prior boom cycles and it's a really big red flag. The coreweave thing is just icing on the cake though.

shobogenzo93

That statement is an oversimplification and potentially misleading. Evaluating a company's Free Cash Flow cannot be done without considering its **stage within the business life cycle**. It's unrealistic, and often incorrect, to expect consistently positive FCF from **companies in their early stages (startups or early-stage companies)**. These businesses are typically focused on rapid growth, acquiring market share, and intensive product or service development. Such activities require **significant investments** (in marketing, research and development, infrastructure, personnel) that consume cash, naturally leading to negative FCF. At this stage, metrics like revenue growth, customer acquisition, or market potential might be more relevant indicators of the company's trajectory. Furthermore, even for more established companies, **negative FCF is not inherently an alarm signal**. It can be fully justified by **strategic decisions focused on significant investments** aimed at expansion (new facilities, acquisitions), innovation (R&D), or improving future operational efficiency. While these investments negatively impact FCF in the short term, they are often crucial for **long-term value creation** and maintaining a competitive advantage.

RockyCreamNHotSauce

I worked hard on my MBA financial accounting classes. I was doing deep research to project discounted FCF. I missed the vibe measurement class though. Utterly failed.

dimethylhyperspace

Dude, I scrotally agree. HOOD is my largest position. I think over the next decade the wealth transfer from boomers accounts at T Rowe and Fidelity to their kids is likely going to go right into Robinhood. On top of that, they have so many revenue streams: - Commission from stock and option purchases and sales(,they're still making money while people liquidate) -Interest from revolving credit - Commissions in crypto -Commissions on "side markets" There's more, but all that is going to increase their FCF significantly as the years go by. If we get to the 30's I'm going to buy a lot more. Unfortunately I think in the short term it may be topped out, as long as we're still in an uptrend within a bear market. But I'm holding.

Dr_iWally

See this important info: **Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) EPS (TTM): $9.26 USD** ,Actual Share price $428,58,- **Porsche Automobil Holding SE (XETRA: PAH3 / OTC: POAHY) EPS (TTM): $11.11 USD** ,Actual Share EU price 32,90€ # 🏎️ Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE) * **Free Cash Flow (TTM)**: $1.58 billion USD​ * **Free Cash Flow Per Share**: $8.70 USD​[Macrotrends+1MarketScreener España+1](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/RACE/ferrari/free-cash-flow-per-share?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Recent Performance**: In 2024, Ferrari's FCF increased by 10.6% year-over-year, reaching $1.031 billion USD. ​[GráficosFinancieros](https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/RACE/growth/free-cash-flow?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # 🚗 Porsche Automobil Holding SE (XETRA: PAH3 / OTC: POAHY) * **Free Cash Flow (TTM)**: $2.24 billion USD​ * **Free Cash Flow Per Share**: $7.30 USD​ * **Recent Performance**: For the period ending June 2024, Porsche SE reported a free cash flow of $1.813 billion USD. ​ * Also you prefer Ferrari for drive ? I prefer make a good Investment and make money.

Inner-Detail-553

That’s not what PE is.  If market = P, then presumably E (per year!) dropped by P/15, not P x 15 If you think stock prices are discounted FCF, then sure 6T in FCF destroyed.  But there is no simple FCF to trade conversion 

Hefty_Bobcat_8209

Capex will be dropping precipitously as the Siler City plant construction finishes up. FCF projected by 2027.

MutaliskGluon

they are NVDA they are doing anything and everything to keep the sales growth appear as rosy as possible for as long as possible, like they do in every bull cycle. This one appears to be related to revenue recognition, the use of AP AR and FCF raising some red flags, plus the whole coreweave scam

MutaliskGluon

revenue recognition most likely. Putting things on AP and counting as revenue before they should. Theres a lot of red flags on AP and AR and FCF on their statements that dont pass the smell test. Then you have the whole coreweave fraud. Using money raised from NVDA to buy NVDA products and then sell those services back to companies that also work with NVDA... theres a lot of smoke. And NVDA has done this revenue recognition BS in the past too.

EssayTraditional2563

NYSE:TIXT - lot of good reasons the stock has dropped (AI fears) but at this valuation, it’s just ludicrously cheap even factoring in degradation of FCF over time. It’s trading at like what, between 1-2x FCF? Insane equity value creation through deleveraging. Wouldn’t buy the stock outright maybe, but definitely comfortable selling puts on it.  NYSE:HBM - copper miner sitting at the bottom end of the cost curve, optionality from Copper World, FCF positive, trades at like an 18-20% FCF yield even after factoring in pretty accretive capex. Again, comfortable coming in at a $8 strike. Premiums aren’t bad at all on puts.

thelastsubject123

Congrats, you just invented FCF yield/buyback yield/price to earnings. Now magic really happens when you compare it against the federal funds rate and create a spreadsheet, something along the lines of projecting future earnings and subtracting it based on the expected yield and the time value of money, maybe call it discounted cash flow analysis?

MitchCurry

Healthcare ad spend did decrease during the GFC according to Nielsen and Kantar Media but the spend decrease was less than other industries so I'd guess Doximity would hold up better than most but 18x sales, 41x FCF, 52x earnings, it's still pretty richly valued. So yeah, I'm waiting for cheaper too but worried it may not get there and I miss out.

jackflash223

I fled to short bonds and plan to just sit and occasionally take advantage of high IV option premiums via margin. Long term is really dependent on the economy for me, but I am looking for good value forward P/E, PEG, FCF based around Q2 and Q3 earnings.

MitchCurry

I want to add to my position but I have trouble valuing it. Like, can I really expect 30%+ operating margins 40% FCF margins? It seems unreasonable but they've been pulling those numbers off.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

PINS, a 0 debt, FCF growing company, is trading at 9 TTM p/e at the moment. a little misleading because they had some big positive tax effect hit their financials last year, but fundamentals are really good for this company, which has also been rumored to be a takeover target.

cannabull1055

I agree. That is my perspective. I think I share the same perspective. I don't want to be there long term. I don't know if I agree that interstate commerece is necessarily right behind 280E repeal. I think if schedule 3 happened, it could be years before interstate commerce is allowed. I think there could be a nice window where MSOs are super undervalued. If Florida and PA go rec in the next 2-3 years and 280E is removed, Green Thumb will be PRINTING money. Their net income and FCF would be insane. It would be a violent rerate higher by 300-1000%, especially if uplisting happened. But I do agree that long term the investment is not so pretty. I don't want to be there for the long term.

filbo132

Just because it has gone up in the last 10 years doesn't mean anything, it just means there are people who buy it and then try to sell it to the next sucker like the tulip mania. There's nothing behind it, you buy in hope to sell it to a sucker at a more expensive price. But the price movement of bitcoin means f\*ck all other than what people are willing to pay that gives them no use. With a company, in the short term, it can go up and down based on short term market sentiments, but you know that when you buy a buisness, if you expect their revenue to grow, their FCF to grow, you know that over time, the buisness will be worth something. Everything is backed up by numbers. Crypto has f\*ck all, it just goes up and down based on emotions. No numbers nothing, if the market does f\*ck all the next decade, so will bitcoin. It only went up in the last decade, because it was it's infancy and we had the greatest bull run in history, so naturally people made money on that decade.

-getmemoney-

I’ll just sit here scheming with my 1x EV/FCF/ 10x MC/Income foreign stocks . Soon we shall print. They may or may not have competitive pricing advantage with tariffs being introduced. May do a DD…perhaps

jackflash223

This is what I'm looking at. I'm not looking to buy dips I'm looking to buy value. Forward P/E, PEG, FCF.

Cocker_Spaniel_Craig

Sorry I didn’t read this wall of text but I assume it just says “I adore Elon musk” over and over. Again, 2/3 of their FCF comes from carbon credits. They’re barely a car company trading at a 120 PE after falling over 30% in 3 months.

DrewNY94

I'm a long term shareholder of GM and the most frustrating thing about the stock is that it had reached what was in effect a 2+ year high back in late November and then literally the next day Trump came out and said that after the inauguration he was going to slap huge tariffs on cars. The stock has been down and to the right ever since. If stocks only traded on valuation, FCF, and earnings growth metrics GM would be at least $80 / share right now. Unfortunately we know that's not reality and good companies with iconic brands are getting punished in this current environment. It's demoralizing.

ClapYourHaands

I am guessing it’s due to investments as it’s a fairly new company. And their forward P/E is 17. In their case i think it’s better to focus on their FCF instead of P/E as it’s easier to manipulate P/E with other expenses.

Not-Reformed

Hooters isn't in the life stage where they can saddle themselves with debt and lose money on operations with lower prices to attract customers. Twin Peaks is. Go look at their 10K, the FCF and NOI speak for themselves. Their margins are ass because they haven't raised prices by 40% like they will eventually have to in order to be in the green. When they inevitably do that, people will say the same thing they're currently saying - greedy investors, enshitiffication, unaffordable, overpriced, etc.

AsexualMeatMannequin

I wanted to short Rblx but thought better after some research. At a glance its valuation is absurd, but they do some wierd accounting thing that makes their income and revenue look wayy worse than it really is. Free cash flow tells the real story and it is trading at 60 price to free cash flow. their daily active users is also at 80million and chugging right on up exponentially. At this pace it’ll double in 5 years. Free cash flow could easily triple in 5 years. And assuming 30 price/FCF and some share dilution that would put the stock price up 30% from today. So I’m def not gonna buy but it’s potentially a runaway cash machine that’ll bust your put.

Not-Reformed

Twin Peaks is in their "take on monster debt and grow and hope we can outgrow bankruptcy" stage. Shit FCF, tons of debt, shareholder deficit. I wouldn't say they're "doing well" they're just in a state where it's "newer and cooler" so investors are willing to burn money to help them grow and hope they can land on their feet.

Not-Reformed

Thriving? They're just saddled to the tits in debt (shareholder deficit) and expanding fast. Operations are in the red and FCF is terrible. Go look at their 10-K.

EssayTraditional2563

Realistically, it’s just not a good measure but ultimately is what ends up getting used.  The idea is that it’s capital structure and tax structure neutral, but as you mentioned, it doesn’t isolate for the “buy vs rent” piece.  The idea behind using adjusted EBITDA as well is to try to get to a proxy for operating cash flow which doesn’t take into account quarter to quarter fluctuations in working capital, which often results in super lumpy OCF numbers. That’s why as well that oftentimes, especially in leverage and interest coverage ratio calculations, you’ll see (EBITDA - Capex) used as a proxy for FCF. 

Agitated_Product_404

GOOGL was trading at a 16.7 Forward P/E ratio at open today. Whether you are looking at P/S, forward P/E, FCF. GOOGL is trading at some of the cheapest valuations it has in the last decade

Mr-R--California

You’re ignoring a tooonn of factors. One being financing via equity. If Company B has raised $500MM and its shares are currently under water, company A may look more enticing. If Company A has positive CF from operations (of which EBITDA is an acceptable proxy) but Company B is not CF positive and has no path to FCF positive, then Company A is worth a significant amount more than Compnay B

cannabull1055

I am talking about a simple comparable valuation metric. I don't care if it is the best of the most accurate. IT IS the STANDARD METRIC used in this industry for comps. You can't compare Tilray to other companies if all their cash flows are negative. P/FCF would be negative for all of the companies. It doesn't work. That is why EV/EBITDA is used. If you are doing a full DCF model or a full valuation, sure you can project out their breakdown on cash flow and future cash flows but I am talking about a simple valuation metric for comps and that is EV/EBITDA. The other reason cash flows is a challenging metric in this industry is because of 280E. Companies pay exbortant tax rates removing the ability to properly project cash flows. All said and done, you are ignoring that EBITDA is used by Wall Street. It is not great and can be manipulated but that is what the street often uses. So whether you like or not, it is how companies are often valued at a high level, particularly in this industry.

istockusername

It’s irrelevant if the company uses the money to pay a dividend or reinvests it. Instead of the dividend you can look at free cash flow and use the FCF method. There are several ways to value a company with the stock market. Startups don’t pay a dividend yet people can value them. The same way as you need to value any regular private company.

Otherwise-Coyote6950

Some gold miners are up 100% in the last year, at this gold price they produce an insane amount of FCF....I own Newmont and Agnico Eagle

MitchCurry

RDDT and PINS isn't a good comp though, is it? PINS is 3x the revenue and more than less than P/S and P/GP and 1/4 of P/FCF. PINS is also profitable whereas RDDT isn't but RDDT is growing 3x faster. They're in very different stages of their life.

cannabull1055

Lol that was a whole lot of nothing bro. EV/EBITDA is the main financial valuation metric used in this industry. Typically, you could use P/E or P/FCF but most companies don't have that yet. Valuation is quite simple and any way you cut it shows that Tilray is significantly overvalued. They are diluting to grow revenues, they continue to burn cash, and their margins a poor. I don't what angle you are taking here with the paragraph you just wrote but those are the facts.

MitchCurry

Adyen people, what kind of FCF margin do you think Adyen could sustainably achieve?