FCF

Super_Highway_3405

TSLA holds like $40 billion with FCF around $16 billion, so basically, no, and no to the last question too.

ChillMeerkat

I hold Mckesson for 4 years now, funny thing is its the only healthcare stock I didnt sell, still a good business forward PE below 20 and P/FCF 16

Crunch101010

It’s a very hated company on reddit, but there are plenty of people who don’t care about their provider and just keep paying the bill. I bought some not too long ago at $38 in a tax sheltered account. Forward FCF yield is around 12%+, forward PE around 8.5x, dividend over 7% and a safe payout ratio. At this price, I don’t need much earnings growth to happen (although the market thinks they will keep growing eps at about 3%-4%). As for upside, I expect their next move should be to replace the indian customer support army with AI. That would dramatically cut costs, provide a lot more data, and also improve the customer experience. I have direct experience seeing the new AI customer support agents at another company, and they are incredible- most people don’t even realize it’s AI. And they are tied into the system to make most actions without human involvement. In general, I see it as a safe value stock in the sense that if the overall market drops 20%+ this year, VZ won’t. It’s already beaten down. And in a recession, people will do just about anything before they cut off their phones and internet (VZ sales only dropped 1% in 2008). By having a few defensive stocks like this (waste management is another example, BTI is another), I’m comfortable leaning harder into more risk in other investments.

Massive_Plantain3949

XOM and CVX have already committed to generate FCF and give to investors through 2030. What does it mean? It means that all these oil companies will reduce CapEx (drill less, less spending on potential rigs etc). As most major companies tighten their CapEx, the production will be decreased (By the way, the Permian Basin producion has become negative YoY in Dec. 2025). As the production will be decreased or cut, there is a potential scenario that the demand will be higher than the supply. The oil price is sensitive to the inflation and even 1% less supply than the demand could drive the oil price 2x or 3x higher (Remember 2020? The production was dead due to Covid-19, so that we had 10% less supply than the demand. The crude oil price surged from $16 to $110.). Also geopolitical risks are not underestimated. There is no guarantee that the oil price will drop or be flat. It could surge. The question is rather when. It is matter of time.

QuietRequirement9067

If I were building this for the **long run**, I’d start with **fundamentals first** \- specifically **high and stable ROIC and strong free cash flow** (that’s what I screen for using **FindGreatStocks(dot)com**). Based on that, my first **high-confidence adds** would be: * **META** * **NFLX** * **V** * **ADBE** These already show durable ROIC and FCF that support long-term compounding. Next, I’d add companies where **ROIC isn’t as high yet but is clearly expanding** and the business quality is improving: * **UBER** * **PYPL** * **ORCL** * **AMZN** * **AVGO** As a **#10**, I’d allow **one speculative bet**: * **NBIS** \- not enough fundamentals yet, but a bet on the **team**. These are the same people who built Yandex in Russia and successfully competed with Google, Uber, Spotify, and others. Core = quality + cash flow. Speculation = small, intentional, and last.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

Check also growth. Revenue CAGR, net income cagr, operating margin, FCF, operating cashflow. If fundamentals are growing, in lost cases stock will follow

mollusc_in_the_wind

Yes, and the key point I think you’re missing is that “moatless” is not me claiming NBIS’ engineers are incompetent or that their software is definitely bad. It’s me making a structural statement about the business model and the incentives in this market. 1) “Moatless” does not mean “zero execution risk priced in.” It means “low barriers and weak pricing power.” In GPU rental / “AI cloud”, the core inputs are commoditised and available to anyone with enough capital: NVIDIA GPUs, standard networking, standard data-centre shells, and a control plane built on broadly known patterns (often leveraging open tooling). If multiple credible players can offer “good enough” provisioning, the customer decision collapses to unit economics, reliability, and contract terms. That’s not me speculating on NBIS’ software quality. That’s just the normal endpoint of infrastructure markets where buyers can multi-home and suppliers sell similar capacity. 2) The “software flywheel” claim is exactly what should be proven, not assumed. If NBIS has a real software moat, it should show up in hard outcomes (sustainably better realised pricing per GPU-hour (or better margins at the same price; stronger renewals / higher retention) Until you can point to those, “software flywheel” is meaningless investor jargon that their C-suite wants you to gobble on. 3) Brookfield entering this lane is evidence that the barrier is *capital* When a giant infrastructure allocator can spin up the same basic product (GPU capacity leased out of their data centres) with dedicated funding, that’s not “just competition exists”: it’s clear evidence that the business is replicable. And once it’s replicable, the long-run economics tend to get competed away toward whoever has: • cheaper cost of capital • better power economics • faster time-to-build • deeper balance sheet staying power That is exactly why I’ve been negative on NBIS: you are underwriting a capex-heavy, depreciating-asset model and hoping it earns tech-like returns. And Brookfield, in my view, is structurally advantaged because of its energy business. 4) This also supports my broader bear view that people keep hand-waving away As I’ve said before: negative FCF / negative earnings matter in a capex-led model, because the equity becomes the shock absorber (dilution risk). Customer bargaining power matters, because the whales have alternatives and can squeeze pricing/terms as supply grows. And hardware depreciation risk matters, because if utilisation/pricing softens, you’re left holding rapidly ageing GPUs. So no, I’m not claiming “Radiant will be perfect” or “NBIS software is useless.” I’m saying: if your bull case requires assuming a durable software moat and a flywheel, you should be able to evidence it in unit economics and contract structure. If you’re bullish, the burden of proof is simple: show me the numbers (margins/ROIC/retention/contract protections) that demonstrate NBIS can defend returns as well-capitalised entrants pile into the same commodity lane.

superbilliam

Find a brokerage you like (I personally like Fidelity). Start a "backbone" investment for basic stability like VT, which is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that holds a large portion of all stocks across the entire world. It will move with the economy, but is something you should not ever sell. If it dips down 5%, buy more to average down. If it dips down 10%+ back up your truck and load up. What you don’t do is sell it for a loss, EVER! You hold it and wait, it will go back up unless the world is under attack by aliens or some other unlikely event. It may take a year or two if we have a market crash, but this will go back up. That is one thing I can guarantee to you. Once you have that, explore a few stocks you like. You don’t need to buy everything, just dabble. Only buy it if you really understand it. Individual stocks can drop and never return to previous prices. They don't have the guardrails that a fund like VT does. I recommend watching a few videos and reading about fundamentals like Free Cash Flow (FCF), Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Revenue vs Earnings Per Share, etc. Joseph Carlson om youtube does a good job analyzing stocks. Plain Bagel or Ben Felix do a good job explaining stock related information (they are a bit dry, but spot on usually). Dividend Talks is a good place for ideas and to see analysis in practice, I don't recommend blindly buying everything they mention. Dividend Compounders with Cheese does some pretty good analysis. Tread lightly though on youtube...never buy something just because they said it is good. Always read up and make your own decisions. They are good places for ideas, not guaranteed compounding machines. Hope this helps! Best of luck and a Happy New Year to you and all!

usrnmz

Not sure what point you're trying to make. If a company has positive FCF because of SBC it is not profitable and shareholders are footing the bill.

Rationalbets

Clarivate (clvt): trades at 15% FCF yield and is pursuing strategic alternatives to divest something. Good chance of rerating in 2026

Working-Guard-7848

CAPEX absolutely comes out of net.... it takes years, and I think current chips is 6 years to zero? R&D comes out at 100%. So a million dollars of capex would come out 1/6 at a time for the next 6 years My point was not to get into a discussion about accounting, it was to say; watch FCF... "profitable" is subjective, IMO. FCF is a way better metric to watch

Working-Guard-7848

well, CRWD has about 1B in free cash flow (FCF) annually. Normally this would be very close to same # as net income. However, for a company that is focussed on growth, they take their FCF and reinvest it into capitol expenditures (think, build more data centers, buy more chips). That's why net income is almost zero, while FCF is a billion+. They are choosing to reinvest and expand.

c-u-in-da-ballpit

$845M cash, zero debt. $622M FCF (47% YoY growth). $5B+ backlog through 2026. 100% domestic content qualifies for IRA tax credits. Q2 FY26 estimated revenue $905M (42% YoY), It’s my number one holding at 9% of my portfolio.

KopOut

Repeat after me: "the price per share is irrelevant" Look at market cap, P/S, P/E, Fwd P/E, PEG, Debt/Equity, FCF, Margins etc. Right now it is trading at PS of 2, and a Fwd PE of nearly 32. Net Margin stands at under 6%. FCF in a downtrend. I think basically everything has to go right for NKE in order for it's current valuation to be justified. I would start to get interested in it if the forward PE dips below 25 and they can improve their net margin some.

my_wing

We all needed to understand that TSMC most important customer is Apple, there is no indication that iPhone is not releasing in Sep/Oct, it is around 6 months from HVM to product available, the most educated guess is that TSMC is more reasonable to be in HVM around Feb and not Dec, the website a number of sites out there is linking is an old website from TSMC which is a prior estimate. This is a trick, just treat you did not heard that TSMC had HVM N2, as there is no indication that Apple has shift its iPhone launch schedule. TSMC N2 is going to be in HVM in Feb 2026, there is the most reasonable educated guess. As mentioned FCF have a component of growth to be added. With Intel, AMD, Qualcomm leaving or planning to leave TSMC most advance node, i.e. the most profitable, there is no indication that TSMC can fill up the gap that left by Intel, remember the first N3 class customer is launch by Apple > Intel > nVidia / AMD > mediatek > Google, that No 2 spot make Intel a more important customer to TSMC then nVidia even Intel is making a loss. That is a "-" & "-", TSMC needed to find a customer that can replaced Intel and another one to maintain growth, that seems remote, nVidia is not going to fill that gap, they need a node that has D0 < 0.1 in order to manufacture a large die area chip, which Apple and Intel did not needed, therefore even N3B was in trouble, Apple's chip is smaller (as mobile vs server) and can absorb the loss. CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swam @ Intel. CC Wei need to go, he lead the company into a no High NA EUV company, did not even investigate other technology e.g. Dry Photo Resist, Pattern Sharpening. Quad Patterning, i.e. Good Luck, so instead of asking why I think Samsung can catch up, the better way to ask is why do you think other will slow down, while TSMC slow down. From this webpage the slide headed EUV Lithography Process and Roadmap challenge [https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle) You can clear see that what TEL is thinking and that is why TSMC N2 is still at 0.021 um\^2 which is the same as Intel 18A, both 18A and N2 is already hole pitch \~36nm (the TEL slide use 26nm) i.e. what TEL think is the limit for Low NA EUV, even with multiple patterning, if TSMC is using a sharper Dry Photo Resist then might push this limit, while Line Pitch can be push by Pattern Shaping (Applied Materials), because of these limit, from day 1 I am very skeptic that TSMC can scale > 1% density (SRAM) from N3E, (N3B in itself is a kinda of fail node not going to count). Whatever TSMC is say, I am not believing since that is the limit set by a number of industry research that I read. Intel will widen the PPA gap to TSMC and Samsung will close the Gap, that is going to happen, especially under CC Wei as their CEO.

my_wing

The previous valuation is base on TSMC has a node advantage. As an accountant valuation no matter normal is using FCF, TSMC is over valued. The last 2 years see that Intel has shift production to TSMC most advance node, i.e. that is the growth component, since that Intel shift that production back to its own foundry, sorry that grow is not going anyways. The last 2 years we also see that Pixel CPU is move to TSMC from Samsung. The last 3-5 years also seen that nVidia shift back to TSMC from Samsung. Growth is already well reflected. Currently is the other way around, AMD / Qualcomm all considering moving to Samsung or Intel, demand is reduced. TSMC growth is going to go slow, as Samsung is going to catch up in 2028 as High NA enter production in Samsung. TSMC node disadvantage is going to be widen as Intel using High NA for 14A in HVM. This is a professional finance analyst from a Chartered Accountant my friend. TSMC is a sell and sell it fast

_hiddenscout

Because the valuation is compelling. No one knows how the deal will play out, but if you are looking at a long term position, it's probably not going to be a that big of a deal in like 3-5 years from now. You are buying a company that has a great track record of high ROIC, good gross and operating margins. Revenue growth is impressive with how big of company they are. Seems like the market is probably pricing in some of that uncertainty. I think the debt part not great in terms of how they are paying for it. However, company generates a decent amount of FCF. 2023 and 2024 both produced around 7B in FCF and I think it's like 9B this year. Worst case, I wonder if they could pull some levers and cut down on content generation a few years after buying WB, since they are going to increase their catalog a ton. Also NFLX says they will save about 2-3B a year annually on operational efficiencies. However, I don't know a ton about the movie industry, just think the company valuation is compelling at these levels.

Legitimate_Height424

Aren't that profitable? Newmont posted FCF of 1.7B in Q2 of 2025 and FCF of 1.6B in Q3? Are you insane?

bhutjolokia79

(I‘m not a professional in corporate finance and this is a very simplified response.) Net Income is profits minus depreciation and amortisation and taxed. It’s the part you pay dividends to investors out of and reinvest the rest in business. FCF is the money you have at hand. To calculate FCF from Net Income you add Depreciation and Amortisation to it.

Key_Variety_6287

In God We trust, everyone else must bring data. Oracle is currently trading at 35 times EV/EBIT and has a negative FCF yield and Debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.64 Let's look at META in 2022, EV/EBIT of 9.70, FCF yield of 7.2% and Debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.58. The only similarity is that the fall in share price. One became sort cheap and the other is still very richly valued despite the fall.

mollusc_in_the_wind

Ok how about we have a productive conversation about NBIS? A few reasons why I think it’s a poor investment: No margin of safety, no earnings, no FCF. Value is about buying future cash flows at a discount. Nebius has negative FCF, negative earnings and will need years of flawless execution plus multiple rounds of dilution just to maybe get to steady-state. You’re not buying discounted cash flows, you’re buying a story. Structurally grim economics. This is a capex-hog business that has to: Buy insanely expensive GPUs up front from Nvidia and friends. Build giant, power-hungry sheds. Then hope the hyperscalers (MSFT/META etc.) keep renting at decent prices. … If demand undershoots, or efficiency gains mean fewer GPUs per unit of workload, the vendors (who have all the bargaining power) still win. Nebius is left holding rapidly depreciating hardware in giant barns. Commodity product, no real moat. They rent generic compute in a knife fight against CoreWeave, IREN, CIFR, BITF and every ex-bitcoin miner with a pulse. The hyperscalers care about unit cost and reliability, not “brand”. The idea that this is some unique, irreplaceable asset is pure cope. Customer concentration & power imbalance. A couple of monster customers lock them into long contracts on their terms. If economics tighten, MSFT/META will renegotiate, squeeze them or walk away. Equity holders are last in the food chain. Optics & baggage. You’re kidding yourself if you think “ex-Yandex Russian spin-off is in charge of your sovereign AI compute” is a non-issue for EU governments. That’s a headline risk you don’t get paid for. If you want to take a speculative swing on “maybe the AI DC landgrab keeps going long enough that someone pays a silly multiple for this”, fine – but that’s growth / momentum gambling, not value investing. NBIS is a leveraged bet that a capital-intensive, low-margin, commodity business in a brutal competitive landscape will somehow turn into a compounding machine.

Ok_Currency_6390

I mean with oil so cheap and metal prices so high it's almost difficult for a miner to not make money If you are even half decent at valuing businesses and can avoid the obvious pitfalls the potential is just unbelievable Even if you think miners are doomed it's worth chucking a few bucks into at least the ETF's, the risk / reward asymmetry is just unbelievable right now For example, AEM's (Agnico Eagle) FCF is going up *faster than the stock price*. And it's up 124% on the year. That is absolutely wild

Dstein99

It’s something to keep an eye on but they can afford it. I think that Meta is one of the more dangerous mag 7 stocks, but far from one of the most risky AI stocks in the market. Even after this pullback the stock is up 460% over the past 3 years so there’s no harm in taking profits at this level. They’re essentially at 2023 levels of Free Cash Flow. In the Trailing Twelve Months compared to FY 2023 their OCF grew from $71B to $107B ($36B) and their Capex grew from $27B to $62B ($35B). Their OCF is growing rapidly (averaging 22% per year since 2020) so they likely are seeing effects of AI, but I always assume that the company will earn 0% return on their AI spend. Would you be happy owning Meta producing $45B in FCF after earning $23B in 2020, $39B in 2021, $19B in 2022, $43B in 2023, $54B in 2024, and $45B in TTM which is close to FY 2025? 37x FCF is too expensive for me to pay especially considering that FCF will likely be lower next year due to increased capex. It’s not something I would want to own, but $45B FCF companies aren’t everywhere and they won’t go out of business if they get no return on their AI spending.

Prudent-Corgi3793

Dude, stop buying puts on TSLA for your own good. We all know it's 5-10x overvalued using a FCF or EPS model, but it genuinely does not trade on fundamentals. When people say it trades as a meme stock, to be more precise, it trades on short-term options activity and the subsequent price action that results when market makers (who buy or sell options) need to buy or sell the underlying to cover up their underlying. Consider TSLA vs. MSFT and BRK.B. I chose these because they are also two megacaps in the trillion dollar club and because they have similar prices per stock, meaning that the value of each options contract will be similar. Now look at how much difference there is between the option volume for the 0DTE: |Underlying|Current Price|Call Volume|Put Volume| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |[TSLA](https://optioncharts.io/options/tsla)|480.09|831,847|542,274| |[MSFT](https://optioncharts.io/options/msft)|487.47|30,369|13,214| |[BRK.B](https://optioncharts.io/options/brkb)|498.20|1,652|1,228| TSLA has nearly 30 times the 0DTE call volume of MSFT and more than 500 times the 0DTE call volume of BRK.B. Those stocks trade on expectations of future earnings, TSLA trades on arbitrage and hedging. You might think you're smarter than an army of apes, but they're going to rip your arms off until enough of them leave.

Historical_Air_8997

I’m at work so can’t do a big response atm. But I was seeing SpaceX 2025 revenue around $15.5B so at $800m that’s 50x sales and where I got the 100x for the $1.5T target. Also should note their revenue in 2024 was over $13B so they had 10% growth. RKLB is like 50%. I also meant to specify that RKLB is for sure overvalued. Not trying to say it’s a value stock or even a buy at these prices. Rather that I think it’s a better buy with less risk than SpaceX IF they ipo at $1.5T. You may be right and 2026 sucks, but long term the price today isn’t gonna matter at their growth rate. To the r&d cost thing, RKLB should be FCF positive by the end of 2026 into 2027. They have enough cash on hand to maintain their level of spending for over 2 years (not counting the reduced cost once neutron is finished). So dilution really isn’t an issue, unless they want to make an acquisition but they’ve proven to make good acquisitions that benefit shareholders. The point is they don’t *have* to dilute shares to keep operations and r&d going. Ofc SpaceX is in a better financial position and are FCF positive since they’re a more mature company with an unlimited budget. Lastly, is neutron works out as planned their ability to scale should be insane since they’re can 3D print the majority of the rocket and engines. The margins with reduced labor costs will likely be the best in the industry once they scale neutron. Outside neutron, electron will have about 30-35% gross margins next year (once they hit 24+ launches a year) and the space systems (core business) already has something like 40% gross margins with long term goal of 45%. Yeah I know net margins are sorta more important but there can be some accounting. Long term you’re right margins won’t reach tech levels but they should be pretty high.

No-Doctor9742

FCF growing, balance sheet getting better, business not dying but priced like it is…

DrElkSnout

After their new acquisition of New Gold they're going to compete with the big boys soon. I'm holding CDE long term now. Currently holding over 9,000 shares. Had 12K at one point but took profits. Imagine the fucking ludicrous profits they're going to be announcing at these gold and silver prices. I mean, what the actual fuck it's going to be insane. FCF is going to be wild. Coeur Mining saw it and pounced on the next big thing, with exposure to copper as well. Good luck bro. Don't get impatient.

TheGhostOfStanSweet

You’re talking like it’s an investment. It’s a horrible investment that is pre-revenue. No one has any idea of they’ll last 10 years, or able to actually earn FCF. This is buy the rumour, sell the news. Only an idiot would actually hang on long term. If you really want to hang on, wait for it to do double, and then sell 75% of your shares. This way you’ve dumped most of your position while profitable, and still hold something in case it continues to fly.

OverheadPress69

1. Get a birds-eye view of the company. What does the company do? How do they make their money? What sector are they in? Tailwinds/headwinds in the industry? Who is the CEO? What is current sentiment? What direction is the business going and what stage in the business cycle is it at currently? 2. Look a little deeper into the fundamentals of the stock. I personally look at: market cap, revenue growth, profit margin, margin growth, book value, forward PE, EPS, debt, FCF, revenue/margins of each of the business’ market sectors (ie Amazon’s retail financials and their AWS financials). I am personally looking for two things here — 1, proof of growth potential and 2, disqualification. If any of these numbers are red flags based on my understanding established in the first step, I move on or dig deeper depending on the company. Basically, you want to see profitability, growth potential, and the ability to survive if something goes wrong. 3. Look below the hood. This can often tell you more than anything else. Are there share buybacks going on? What is the dividend history? What is the short ratio? What level of institutional investment is there? What are industry analysts’ price targets? Are there any catalysts on the horizon? Potential regulatory hurdles? Is the industry faring well? Who are the primary competitors? What is the company’s position in the industry? How can they grow/maintain market share? Who are the business’ customers? Are they stable? Is there a backlog? What about their suppliers? Are they sensitive to interest rates, commodity prices, consumer sentiment, etc.? Is their success dependent on another company? Is a M&A angle in play? What ETFs are the company included in, how is the fund performing, and will it be added to the DJIA/S&P500/QQQ etc. in the near future? 4. Look at the stock’s price. Compare to 52w high and low. Compare to ATH & ATL. Look at volume patterns. See if there is a base of support in the chart or resistance spots. Compare to the chart of similar companies. Compare to the S&P500. Looking for momentum & support levels; I’m a believer in time in the market, so this step is primarily to determine position sizing, if I’ll be DCAing or lump buying, etc. 5. Check out different sources to see if anyone has information you missed. I personally start on Reddit, then use some combination of YouTube, Yahoo! Finance, Morningstar, Moody’s, IBD, Bloomberg, WSJ, & CNBC. 6. Look at your portfolio. How would this stock change its composition? Does it improve your expected returns? Add/reduce volatility? Affect the Sharpe ratio? What sizing should you use? Does it improve diversification? Is it redundant? What is the r/r to adding it? What is the opportunity cost of tying up money in this stock? 7. At this point, you should have a really solid feel for the business. You should know whether you want to buy or not. If you do, pull the trigger now. You have done the research. Trust yourself. If you don’t, put it on the watchlist, and note why you didn’t buy. If something materially changes, it may become a good investment. 8. Come up with your thesis. Why are you buying, what are the exit strategies, what will you do to mitigate risk. Plan for a worst case, best case, and base case scenario. None of this requires advanced quant analysis, specialized data or tools, or anything more than about an hour of your time. I research 2-3 stocks per day. I have a running list of 1000+ stocks sorted by industry & market cap within the industry. I only launch this process if I want to buy. It’s worked well for me. You don’t need to spend too much time on any one step, but unsatisfactory results for any of the steps disqualifies it from investment in my strategy. You should at least consider each of the factors I’ve listed, though you don’t have to go down the list like a checklist. Use your brain, not your heart. Most importantly, write things down. Anything you feel may be important. Start a fresh sheet of paper/new document for your notes and findings while you’re researching each stock and then save it in a folder regardless of if you buy or not. You’ll very quickly build up a reference library of DD that you can return to for many reasons. Perhaps to invest in the future if the situation changes, perhaps to look back at successes and see what led to the success, perhaps to look back and see where you erred in logic if a stock doesn’t meet your expectations. Information is power. The more you do this (and not rely on others) the more confident you’ll be in your ability to analyze a stock. I’m at the point where I don’t really care what anyone else says about a stock if I’ve researched it and formed an opinion. I trust my ability more than anyone else’s, and you will too. Trust me. Dm if you’d like more info/guidance

PTRBoyz

Up until now it’s been all about AI infrastructure, 2026 will be about applications and use cases now. Agentic AI should outperform the chips and data centers. I’m long CRM and PATH to play that angle, but also like NOW despite the M&A overhang. Also very bullish RBRK which has flipped into positive earnings and FCF while still growing sales rapidly.  BA probably outperforms this year as well with the same principle, flipping FCF positive with commitments underway. 

EntropyAccount

The law hasn't changed, and it might not (there's a chance they blame this and that). Trump signed a document, he did his part. Since Feb '21 the entire sector has been in decline. There has been ZERO federal reform since then, and this EO isn't reform. Most companies are generating losses, and only a few (like maybe 2 or 3) are truley FCF+ after taxes paid. A few more are FCF+ but hold tax liability on the balance sheet. The revenue growth is basically stalled. Look at the acutal P/E ratios of these companies. They aren;t cheap, especially since projected growth isnt much. What part about these makes you bullish on "macro"? Since Feb '21 - Cole memo removed, bank custody removed - so if anything it's actually gotten more restrictive. There will undoubtably be an explosion of optimism if S1->S3 officially. Can that overcome strategic short selling, especially when hunting to expire ITM calls worthless (I have absolutely no idea)? How do you "invest" in this sector? It's in perpetual decline. You can only trade it. To even consider the tide is turning, MSOS needs to clear 11.40 to break weekly market structure. Anything below that is still HTF bearish trend, or at best within a long-ass accumulation range. Nothing so far has changed the HTF bearish structure since 2021. Is this bullish macro in the room with us?

iMakeGOODinvestmemts

Once robotics automate $Amzn We will see 30%+ FCF that's $130B FCF COMING RIGHT UPPP

_hiddenscout

Anyone here follow **STVN?** Came across them screening this morning, kind of an interesting name. This is what they do: >Stevanato Group S.p.A. engages in the design, production, and distribution of products and processes to provide solutions for biopharma and healthcare industries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America, and the Asia Pacific. >It operates through two segments, Biopharmaceutical and Diagnostic Solutions; and Engineering. The company offers drug containment solutions comprising pre-fillable syringes, cartridges, vials, and ampoules; in-vitro diagnostic solutions; drug delivery systems, including pen injectors, auto-injectors, and wearable injectors; diagnostic laboratory consumables; analytical and regulatory support services; medical devices; pharmaceutical visual inspection machines; assembling and packaging machines; glass forming machines; and after-sales services, such as spare parts and maintenance services. They have some exposure to GLP1s, but worry about the pill taking off. Kind of a smaller float name too. From a PE level, it's a bit high, but PEG is at 1.5, so if they can keep up the growth, it's somewhat a fair value price. [https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=STVN&p=d) Sounds like they are trying to expand more into the US, so CAPEX could weight down some of the FCF. [https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from](https://ir.stevanatogroup.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/165/stevanato-group-secures-200-million-in-financing-from) Here's the last ER press release: [https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/\_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06\_Stevanato\_Group\_Reports\_Revenue\_of\_303\_2\_Million\_171.pdf](https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_aae890553e83cfe634709424614dffec/stevanatogroup/news/2025-11-06_Stevanato_Group_Reports_Revenue_of_303_2_Million_171.pdf)

Agitated_Iron_7

Amazon has the potential to be the world’s first 10 trillion dollar company. However, that doesn’t mean they necessarily will… but they *could*. To get there, Amazon could choose to turn on the money printers whenever they want and generate monstrous free cash flow. More FCF than any company on Earth. We got to see a brief glimpse of that before they began spending like crazy on capex within the last year. Why don’t they stop spending? The prudent move for the company is to invest in AI. It is simply too great of an opportunity to pass-up. Advertising, AWS, 3rd Party Seller Services, and Subscriptions are all high margin segments of Amazon that are all growing fabulously. AWS isn’t all there is at Amazon. That’s an outdated narrative. Robotics have the potential to synergize their network, making tight margins high and high margins even higher. Amazon’s share of global retail is still only 4-5%! Their runway is still unfathomably large. Their TAM may as well be infinite at this point in time. Additionally, Amazon still has not instituted a capital return program in the form of dividends and/or buybacks. An annual share buyback program could go a long way towards compounding their stock price. I hold a lot of Amazon. I’m fine accumulating them silently while the market hysterically follows other opportunities. Amazon’s day will come, and their potential gains can still be face melting. The bet here is asymmetrical. There isn’t much risk investing in arguably the most important and valuable American business. As far as I’m concerned, Amazon will be worth 10 trillion dollars at some point. The matter of when is the only question. From here, that’s a 4x gain…

Green-Grass-8782

I’ve been in Uber since earlier this year at $60 and have more conviction than ever that they have a bright future. There is not going to be a winner takes all scenario like some imply. As bullish as I am I hesitate to say it’s severely undervalued. I’ve plugged in different inputs using FCF and I come out in the $90-100 range myself. I think if management executes like I think they will then it most certainly could be a trillion dollar market cap in the next decade.

ptexpat

i was looking at AROC and they seem to have had heavy CAPEX in some of the recent quarters leading to low / -ve FCF in some of them. Were you able to get comfortable with the drivers of that? Also, just wondering whether you have looked at FTI?

asianrockstar2009

FCF is easily manipulated, just offer lots of Stock-Based Compensation and that line gets added into

TeamConsistent5240

I know, right? When you do FCF analysis, it’s based on operating cash flow. Amazon isn’t become less profitable.. it’s making more.. I’m buying for AWS and robotics. Look pretty good to me at 28x next years earnings. Could care less about the retail business apart of marketing and the potential to leverage robotics as a massive moat.

Vegetable-Bug-9779

Not so much in this case. Amazon has low FCF due to high Capex. They have high Capex due to very high demand for AWS. So the Capex will likely result in increased future FCF.

Budget_Initiative740

Due to high CAPEX which will improve future capacity. Even if Ai buildout turns out to be a bubble, just reducing their CAPEX budget will bring FCF right back up as their OCF is relatively stable despite macro conditions

digital_odysseus

Fiserv FISV looks like a classic special situation to me. The market is still anchoring to guidance and communication from the previous management, while the new management team hasn’t fully proven itself yet, so there’s understandable skepticism. That said, the new leadership actually looks quite strong on paper. The CFO is ex-Global Payments with VC experience, and the co-president is the former Stripe CFO. That’s a meaningful upgrade in fintech and payments expertise. Strategically, their plan to integrate services makes sense, especially in the current AI environment where rewriting legacy systems, reducing tech debt, and optimizing operations are finally becoming feasible. They’re also looking at AI primarily as an optimization lever (not hype), and they’re investing in a stablecoin strategy that could meet global merchant needs and improve cost efficiency over time. While management still needs to prove execution, I found the Q3 earnings call refreshing. The tone was one of candor, not promotional optimism, which I actually view as a positive signal at this stage of a turnaround. From a fundamentals standpoint, the company generates strong and consistent free cash flow. Even with leverage on the balance sheet, the FCF quality is solid. With ongoing optimization, product integration, and platforms like Clover, I think there’s a reasonable path to mid-term earnings growth. This is still a competitive and capital-intensive industry, so it’s not without risk. However, payments and financial infrastructure continue to grow globally, and Fiserv has meaningful exposure to international markets. At the current valuation, the stock looks closer to a bargain than a value trap, in my view, and I see it as an attractive 3–5 year investment if management executes.

phosphate554

Adobe is probably my #1 pick for 2026-2030. One of the highest quality business in the word, growing at 10+%, margin expansion (insane, already at 89%), FCF machine and huge buybacks.

TheVariantView

What we're seeing happening to Nike has been happening to Lululemon as well, granted that, as a few other posters here have said, Nike lacks growth opportunity in China, while Lululemon has that opportunity. But, they struggle with the same increased competition, tariffs & margin contraction, partly fueled by tariffs. I've seen some commenters mention that revenue figures are "up", this is probably one of the worst numbers you could be looking at this time in Nike's cycle, they're pushing heavy discounts to further sales, and this is evident in the contracting gross-margin which, contrary to popular belief, isn't entirely tariffs driven. A much better look into their financials is in terms of EBITDA margins and FCF, where both have been heavily weakening over the years due to these struggles that have seen no fundamental change. Nike has been very sluggish on turning over their inventory, it is getting increasingly difficult for them to sell (without discounts), which temporarily propped up uFCF. fwd PE is at \~31x which is well above all comps, and honestly can't be justified by brand equity; we're clearly seeing a shift away in discretionary purchases towards cheaper newer alternatives. I think something interesting to talk about is what came out in the news recently about Lululemon, Elliott took a large stake & is looking to place a turnaround CEO in the position. They noted core problems with Lululemon are: (1) Brand Dilution and Discounting (2) Lack of Innovation & Newness for Newness' Sake (3) Strategic Drift Beyond the Core (4) Leadership and Execution Problem 1 is the same as Nike's, and was the same at Ralph Lauren prior to its turnaround. Problem 2 is same as Nike, though it's a bit unclear what Elliott means by "innovation" imo (it's clothing & apparel after-all). Problem 3 is similar, but in a different way, for lululemon it meant drifting from the core leggings, whereas Nike this seems to be traditional partnerships, shoe lines, etc. Problem 4 directly contradicts the other commenter referring to Nike needing a non-"woke" CEO, Lululemon has one, and they're struggling. For a company as large as Nike, it's going to be a long ride and very difficult turnaround that is unlikely to begin with current management and compensation structure. Catalysts seems very far out, while sluggish returns are much closer and realistic. **TLDR: NIKE is trading above all peers and a turnaround seems unlikely and complicated with their core issues. This is not a stock to buy at these levels.** *Note: This is just a quick surface-level overview of Nike, if anyone is truly interested, I'm happy to do an entire write-up over the weekend to further my points.*

RiPFrozone

Being in Broadcom for years I’d say it’s the most diversified of the semiconductor companies. They have a near 50:50 split in revenue from semiconductor revenue and software revenue after the VMware acquisition. Along with that if you are bullish on the future of ASICs or simply Google TPUs (Broadcom is their partner to make them) it might be the only company which holds a candle to Nvidia long term. Their earnings were great, but investors just didn’t like the QA of the call where Hock Tan really didn’t give much clarity on how much of the 500b backlog we can expect to see in 2026. The company will rally again once sentiment shifts. Today’s valuation is definitely at a premium, so even this dip doesn’t make it “cheap”. However, if you believe in their long term execution to increase FCF to 78b by 2028 it’s trading at around 20x FCF which is reasonable.

Ok_Foot2530

Important fundamentals don’t change over time - moat (pricing power, sustained market share, high entry barrier, high ROIC, etc. as signs), good economics (ROE, sustainable margins), predictability (risks are manageable on most fronts, and downside case not too detrimental), valuation (discount vs FCF, margin of safery). In an environment of excess liquidity and narratives-driven concentration (today), I look away from AI hype and even outside US most of time now, to find high quality ones. Plenty undervalued sectors / stocks - I think housing related ones are cheap in the US, and I think China consumer stocks are too beaten down, etc. and many are overvalued - SaaS stocks are not valued right today, their multiples and margins will be lower given AI’s commoditization forces and SaaS integration of AI / upcoming R&D and S&M spend to stay relevant with AI.

InevitableAd2436

I can tell you’re not a very good trader. It likely stems from your low impulse control. That’s why you don’t want to share. I have a nearly 700% gain since inception now. I’m sorry that it bothers you that meditation is an important component in trading. https://imgur.com/a/V2mSt4h I would recommend you start box breathing 4-4-4-4 to relax your nervous system and look at BMBL and BRCC. Bumble is being priced for failure with a 2 year payback on FCF. BRCC insiders have been buying heavily. Those are my next two major bets. Namaste ☺️

_hiddenscout

AROC is basically the leader in natural gas compression. The bad side is the capex to upgrade some of their equipment and some lumpy FCF, which has concerns around the dividend. However, still good growth. EXFT is more of a turn around story of recent. Been working on debt levels, but have a good backlog and strong relationships with clients in the Permian basin.

hydraByte

Great question, I’m glad you asked! I don’t think there is one specific catalyst as much as there is an enormous misunderstanding about ADBE’s existing general value proposition mixed with an exaggerated fear that AI competitors will significantly eat into ADBE’s marketshare. It’s not really necessary for ADBE to suddenly have some major change that inflates their valuation massively (though that is a possibility given the growth they are making on their own AI models and the strategy behind it), it’s that people are prematurely making assumptions that AI competitors are eating up ADBE’s marketshare in a way that has not borne out in any solid numbers so far, but that has caused people to sell off the stock despite it’s ongoing earnings growth. First of all, when you say ADBE is down on the 5 year charts, I assume you are talking about the share price. But virtually every other metric looks exceptional. Here are some numbers from the last 5 years (I did Q3 since I already had the math, even though Q4 is out now): Net Income (Trailing Twelve Months) - Q3 2020: $3.862 billion - Q3 2025: $6.957 billion - 5 Year Growth: $3.095 billion - 5 Year Growth Rate: 80.1% - Annual Growth Rate (Average): 16% - Compound Annual Growth Rate: 12.5% Diluted EPS (Trailing Twelve Months) - Q3 2020 = $7.9375 / share - Q3 2025 = $16.0538 / share - 5 Year Growth: $8.1163 / share - 5 Year Growth Rate: 102.3% - Annual Growth Rate (Average): 20.5% - Compound Annual Growth Rate: 15.1% You might notice the disparity between their net income and the Earnings Per Share — that’s because Adobe buys back shares aggressively when they feel their stock is selling at an undervalued share price, and in that last 5 years those share buybacks have amounted to 2.6% Compound Annual Growth of EPS by itself. They can afford to do this because of their exceptional free cash flow (FCF) margins (~40%), which is exceedingly rare for companies. I’m going to bed now, but tomorrow I’ll add a follow up message going into more detail about why I think they have a winning strategy on the front of AI, which is the specific place that they might manage to get explosive growth if they can pull it off. But the point of this message was to show they don’t need to pull it off in any kind of major way to continue to do well — their numbers are pretty good even right now. Mostly, people are just afraid.

Foreign-Package-4359

Good point on EBITDA vs CFO.  It this situation Oracle isn't going to run at negative FCF for the foreseeable future. All of this capex is financed with LTD and future data center builds will be financed. They have have $19.4b in operating profits and interest payments are about $3.8b a year. Something to keep an eye on but not an issue. They can't do this forever but it is a huge build out which should start generating revenue in the next year. Tons of levers to pull if they are worried about it but why would they be worried about it. 

GoldenPresidio

It should have went down when the deals were announced to be fair, because they are negative FCF deals

King_Chron

**SNDL Inc – Long-Term Bull Thesis (3–7 yrs) | NASDAQ: SNDL** * Market Cap: \~$536M | Cash: \~$178M | Debt: $0 | FCF 2025: \~$35–40M, projected $50M+ (2026) * Canadian ops: liquor (Ace Liquor, Liquor Depot, Wine & Beyond) + cannabis retail (Spiritleaf → Value Buds) + cannabis cultivation/production → stable cash flow * U.S. optionality via SunStream USA: \~$260M convertible debt → equity in FL, TX, MI, MA, NM → Top-5 North American MSO potential if federal legalization (Schedule III) occurs * 2025 revenue: $723M USD; Gross Margin \~26%; owner earnings \~$40–45M * Valuation: DCF & SOTP suggest $4–6/share vs current \~$2.10 → \~2–3x upside * Catalysts: U.S. federal rescheduling (removes 280E), SunStream conversions, Canadian consolidation, margin expansion via Indiva/private-label products * Capital Allocation: share buybacks $120–150M, Canadian tuck-ins $40–80M, U.S. roll-up via SunStream $150–300M **Bottom Line:** FCF-positive, cash-rich, undervalued Canadian retailer with embedded U.S. MSO optionality → asymmetric 3–7 yr upside.

CanYouPleaseChill

In what would is it certainly underpriced. It has a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 72 and it's up 57% YTD. Do you think that's normal in any way? Of course it isn't.

CanYouPleaseChill

It's a 3.6T market cap company that's up 57% YTD and has a P/(FCF - SBC) ratio of 72. It's a terrible time to buy the dip.

Negative_Win_5117

What are you smoking? They just reported their highest FCF ever.

hungover247365

Is it desperation if we expect MU to rescue the entire equities market? Great beat but 0 FCF. That's a red flag.

foo-bar-nlogn-100

Decent valuations? They owe 125B to in leases. Information reported they were making only making 20% margins off H100. Other reports -70B total FCF until 2030. They either have to cancel deals or risk being huge debt load and no way to pay off the debt Its like you taking out a 5M mortgage on 100K income

MapleCat2021

Well said. JPM's recent paper is spot-on. https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/ideas-and-insights/is-ai-a-bubble-here-are-5-ways-to-find-out. At a recent conference, the head of Bain's real estate practice offered even more staggering numbers. The contraction in FCF of the hyperscalers is eye-popping: \~60% + of FCF committed to CapEx spend through 2030 by Meta, MSFT. And then there is Oracle. Publicly traded real estate is trading at a 25-year relative low. Pension fund allocations to RE are generally below target due to profound value contraction and redemptions over the past 5 years. It could be time to look at public REITs, in particular in industrial and retail, where OpEx creep and rent contraction are far less onerous than they are for office and multifamily.

iyankov96

It's extremely overpriced. It was at fair value at $150 a share in the middle of this year. Now it's the most expensive in its history in many aspects. Record Price/Sales, record EV/FCF, increasing CapEx means more of the income goes towards just maintaining their datacenters and infrastructure. Come back when it's trading at 4-5x sales.

AlwaysSilencedTruth

googl P/FCF is almost 50...

_hiddenscout

Not long, but seems interesting. It's hard to find battery names and BESS names that I want to invest in, since a lot aren't at valuations I like or even generating FCF. Just a lot of speculative stuff gets hit whenever there is going to be down turns in the market. There's a canadian name I came across that is kind of interesting, but marketcap/price might be too small to share, but they are opening a factory in the US soon and now becoming profitable.

Mobile_Breadfruit706

NFLX is overvalued from a FCF perspective and the drama around WBD acquisition puts me off. They may end up overpaying for it, too. HOOD also overvalued, and it’s a business with no moat. This would be my last choice among those three. AVGO is cheap at the moment given it’s FCF and near term growth projections. Long-standing partnership with Google on their TPUs which are gaining traction as an alternative to GPUs for AI applications. This would be my pick (indeed, I have picked a bunch of shares over the last couple of days).

Wowmuchrya

Meta is burning through its FCF faster than any hyperscaler and MSFT tied itself to ScamAI which it will need to bail out, so yea they don’t have any money for 3 year old neocloud gpu’s.

Leroy--Brown

Yeah I saw your DD. Believe it or not I read it. Why is PMI fcf higher, and why is their FCF growth qoq at a higher rate? Their conversion rate seems to not matter if their debt is unsustainably high compared to PMI and their FCF growth is immediately eaten up by that massive dividend

Cav829

Yeah, this has been the thing holding Shift4 back and the million dollar question as to whether and when the stock takes off. Investors want to see them start paying down that debt so all these FCF projections start coming true. They seem more interested in short-term acquisitions and stock buybacks. They might be right to do that in the long-term, but it has made figuring out the entry point for them a nightmare. And meanwhile they've got short-term headwinds with the hospitality industry in retraction. I still like the thesis behind the company, but it could be rocky until the likely catalyst of the World Cup.

Glittering_Water3645

The PE is wrong because of one-time injections. Look at P/OCF and P/FCF instead of exclude this.

Historical_Air_8997

I still like it, it’s grown to a pretty sizable position from my 4% allocation at $313. It’s close to 10% of that portfolio now, so I’m not adding. Honestly I’m not a fan at adding much at near highs regardless, but if I didn’t have a position I’d maybe buy 1/4-1/3 of my normal allocation. It’s still trading at like 25x FCF which isn’t bad for a company like medp. I think there may be some solid tailwinds with the new administration, may be more demand to navigate the changing rules. Also with lowing rates small biotechs will up their research and give business to medp.

ReserveDrunkDriver

I understand the sentiment that corporations are bad, however, what you are saying is literally the opposite of what is true. The CHIPS Act was specifically for the Micron (MU) NY, ID, and VA manufacturing facilities to expand the US supply chain for memory. MU & the USA are working together to increase the supply of memory for the US, which will ultimately lower the cost for the American people as production expands to meet demand. The money was not just "taken" it was an investment in which the US government will recoup their investment via profit share after helping the American people with the memory shortage. The asshole move by the best/largest US memory company would be if they refused to expand CAPEX/production and just turned the FCF machine on to create the most shareholder value.

Alarming-Maize-8611

It first started as a liberty media share arbitrage, but they raised their stake i presume for a few reasons. First, Sirius has meaningful Price to FCF ratio of approx. 6.3 That amount of cash flow for such a low valuation is pretty extraordinary. On top of that SiriusXM is buying back a meaningful amount of shares. This along with the dividend present a pretty strong ROE case for a large shareholder such as Berkshire. Im also guessing that they believe that even with fairly modest subscriber losses, the earnings and free cash flow story wont be meaningfully effected enough for it to matter. I also think that SIRI is making some pretty big moves in investing in content to refurbish its service for newer customers. Whether that works or not, time will tell. 2026 will be a consequential year for SIRI whether their strategy works out or not.

Valvador

> P/FCF is ~20× - the lowest it has ever been by a mile. Isn't 20x kind of high for a company of this type? What sector is Acorn Energy in? They seem to be utilizies/hardware, which historically sits at P/FCF of around 10x on average. [Source.](https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/ev-fcf-ratio-explained#:~:text=Table_title:%20Industry%20Benchmarks:%20Know%20Your%20Playing%20Field,Industry:%20Utilities%20%7C%20Typical%20EV/FCF:%208%2D15x%20%7C) Basically high margin businesses (like Software) are usually higher P/FCF or P/E.

PerfectInAllThings

Fundamentals, DCF, FCF, etc. mean nothing in this market. My responsible stocks averaged flat for the year. My speculative bs stocks made me a ton of money.

AlwaysSilencedTruth

they grow pretty fast, but they also dilute the fuck out of shareholders. FCF per share grew like 16% per year over the last 5 boomy years

AlwaysSilencedTruth

70x FCF multiple.. no

illinformed-will

AI post made with ChatGPT explaining OpenAi circle jerk is cooked. Oh the irony, love it 👌 Last resort will be dilution, now the norm for capex datacenter and fake FCF positive stocks. Wonder who will be willing to buy when it drop another 40% tho... Difference between "discount buy" and "next stop bankruptcy" will be hard to gauge on this one 🤦

karouse

The valuation is simply too high, it is trading at 90 P/E (42 forward),70 P/FCF, 28 P/S. At this valuation, I won't be surprised to see it drop on good earnings, it has so many things already priced in. Not to mention they have the problem of concentration of revenue from just a few top customers.

Fun_Corner_2954

I saw a comment in the daily thread that the dip occurred after it was said in the earnings report that VMware margins were slowing and that Hock Tan used the word "deterioration" to describe FCF for that business (or other?) unit.

plznodownvotes

The growth never really stopped. Market overreaction happens every so often (see AAPL when they stopped reporting iPhone sales, META when it dropped to like $70 and went on a non-stop 700% rally). The facts are that LULU is experiencing extremely rapid international growth with a bit of Americas slowdown. Has over $1bil in cash and increasing FCF, and no debt. I’m not going to mention its “competitors” that Redditors like to mention because they literally don’t matter and will almost likely go under in the next year. LULU’s lawsuit against Costco’s dupes tells you all you need to know about who they saw as competition.

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

King_Chron

**Trump Cannabis EO Leak (Dec 11, 2025)** WaPo reports Trump is preparing an **executive order directing HHS + DEA to move marijuana to Schedule III**. This would **end 280E**, recognize medical use, and align with Biden’s 2024 rescheduling push. White House says “no final decision yet,” but sources expect announcement soon. **Market / Sentiment:** * X: **#TrumpWeed** trending (500k+ mentions). * $MSOS up **8% after-hours**. * Reddit: 65% positive, heavy hype around **280E tax relief**. * Industry-wide benefit: **$2–3B/yr** in saved taxes. # Big Winners if Schedule III happens (280E gone) **Company | 2025 Rev | Est. Annual 280E Savings | Impact** * **Curaleaf** – $1.4B | $150–200M | Major cash unlock * **Green Thumb** – $1.1B | $100–150M | Margins 25%+ * **Trulieve** – $1.2B | $120–180M | Huge FCF reversal * **Verano** – $950M | $80–120M | Major EBITDA lift * **Cresco** – $850M | $70–100M | Debt relief + expansion * **Jushi** – \~$260M | $25–35M | Big % improvement * **Cannabist (Columbia Care)** – \~$350M | $35–50M | Margin recovery * **Planet 13** – \~$95M | $9–14M | Small cap, high % benefit * **Marimed** – \~$160M | $15–25M | Thin margins → strongest lift **Why it’s huge:** * Current effective tax rates are **60–70%** for many operators. * Schedule III removes 280E → normal 21–30% corporate tax. * Every MSO becomes more profitable **instantly** once the rule is finalized. **Bottom line:** If this EO drops and DEA confirms Schedule III, this becomes the **biggest single catalyst** the industry has ever had. Massive for MSOs and cash-strapped tier-2 players. 🚀

Inevitable_Butthole

They have 10B + FCF when you put aside the AI capex But yeah, still not enough

Heineken_500ml

This market is going nowhere. COST trading at 100x FCF LMAO AVGO trading at 100 PE, chip sales can double but earning can't 5x LMAO LULU losing sales in NA 2% in a quarter, shrinking margins, shrinking EPS LMAO

Far-Travel-5206

ORCL’s miss definitely shakes the hype a bit.. negative FCF from AI spending is real money leaving the business. But the market might shrug it off if QE keeps liquidity high and AI excitement stays strong. Could be a short-term pause rather than a full rally killer.

Technical_Cry_5878

Oracle’s numbers highlight the tension in the AI trade: to stay relevant, everyone has to spend aggressively, but the capex surge temporarily wrecks free cash flow. ORCL missing revenue and posting negative FCF makes the market wonder how many quarters of this the big platforms can absorb before investors start questioning the “AI = infinite margins” narrative. The bigger question is whether this is a company-specific stumble or a preview of what happens when hyperscalers and enterprise players all hit the same capex wall. If multiple AI names start showing the same pattern, that’s when the rally becomes vulnerable. But policy can overshadow fundamentals. If the Fed drifts closer to QE-lite, liquidity alone can keep valuations elevated even while earnings get choppy. That’s why some analysts (think of the style of Ian King Microcap Convergence) focus more on liquidity cycles than quarter-by-quarter results. So in the near term, ORCL might not “break” the AI rally by itself, but it’s the kind of print that becomes important if a few more players confirm the same trend.

EntropyAccount

The point is you can buy a bond/MM fund with similar yield but there is no real upside potential beyond this yield. If things improve with the company the stock can return capital gains and the company can increase the dividend. If you want higher returns with higher risk - buy tech. If you can't stomach any losses buy risk-free. At this junction, CN has a stable yield at the risk-free rate with a p/e of 15-17, and generating FCF to reinforce the dividend. The current management team took on more debt than ever to buyback stock, and that bet didn't work out. RR typically get better ROIC by expanding rail capacity, not financial engineering. I think they felt pressured to do something because of the CPKC deal and constantly over guiding didn't help. I'm not a huge fan of the current team, but going forward it seems stabilized (grain shipments are at record highs too). Revenue is likely to increase marginally and the cost control measures are in place. Personally, I model this company to return a dividend of 2.5% and capital gain of 3-5% annually over the next few years if the economy grows 1-2%, tariffs remain in effect, and the US dollar does collapse. Weaker USD can lead to lower traffic. The downside is likely limited here, but obviously not guaranteed.

Mr-Dotties-Dad

Don’t point out NVIDIA’s FCF to OP.

samara_farrel

ORCL doing the classic ‘good on paper, ugly under the hood.’ RPO moon numbers look great until you realize FCF is evaporating faster than Larry Ellison’s patience. Feels like one of those quarters where the headlines pump it and the footnotes drag it. Not touching unless it stops pretending the AI boom automatically fixes everything.”

redpillsbluepills

You’re welcome. Still plenty of room to grow. PL has been FCF positive the last three quarters and continues to crush earnings QoQ. Space stocks in general are just beginning to moonshot. ASTS, RKLB, BKSY, etc. are the frontier of a new era. Idc what anyone else says. Look at how bullish the current administration is, including the FCC Chairman who expedited all of ASTS’ approvals. 2026 is going to be a huge year, and yes, I will admit I’m biased AF because I’m balls deep in this area.

JankyPete

AI data centers is a last ditch effort to say this slow dieing company. That FCF 🙈

WorkingCorrect1062

RPO is up so adding more worry for investors how ORCL is going to fund the infra capex. Basically, the stock is running on upside down logic. There is not other negative as such, FCF negative due to capex means lot of value investors are out.

No-Doctor9742

11x current FCF, heading to more like 5x FCF by mid 2026

rydenh99

In past corrections there was almost complete euphoria. People invested and didn't worry. They didn't even look at the market on a daily. There was complete faith that everything would just keep going up! That is not today's market. There is significant pessimism and concern. There are mini pull backs. Industry/sector scrutiny with investors moving between. All this is healthy! Does it mean the market will just go up? No. And everyone understands that. If earnings are strong, companies benefit. If a company has a mis step and can't support the valuation, expect a pullback. Do I expect the market, as a whole in 2026 to deliver the returns we enjoyed in 2025? No! But if I am invested in strong companies, executing well, delivering earnings to support the valuation and strong FCF, then I expect I will do better being invested in the market vs alternatives.

microdosingrn

FCF.

thri54

A mature industry is a natural competitive barrier that prevents new entrants. No one wants to invest the capital required to fight Autozone for a low growth market. FCF is higher, more like $2B. It looks like they’re on a spree of upgrades with how capex has exceeded depreciation in the last few years. Negative book equity isn’t a problem, per se. Frequently, it’s a sign of business strength when you can tap lenders deep below book equity value. E.g., Verisign, Planet Fitness, and Oracle all have (or had) strong free cash flow and high profit margins. This allowed them to borrow with unsecured at reasonable rates below their book equity. It’s only a problem when you also have high cost of debt or financial distress. IMO the stock value still looks a little rich. They had one of the best stock returns of the last 25 years — over 100x. Even though their profit growth was average, they perpetually traded at a low multiple and juiced returns through stock buybacks. I guess this new high multiple is the market correcting itself.

gatovision

In this bubble of ai/software they were actually a pretty good value play, trading at 6xs sales so thats a good pickup for something growing with good FCF. Theres more smaller software out there like that.

RNGesusDoesntLoveMe

If he was able to see the future dont you think he would have kept it? He sold a lot of it to buy worse companies. I know why he sold it, but it still reflected his lack of foresight or confidence. Each company must be evaluated independently and fairly. Its harder to cheat FCF and its there, there is no ai bubble. 

TJMBeav

These tech companies. Going from low capital, higher than fuck margins and historic FCF. To vertically integrated, high capital, cash sucking data center companies. Brilliant

Vegetable-Bug-9779

Meaning they have $19B cash and $25b debt. They generated $5.85B FCF last quarter while paying dividends and buying back shares. Market cap is $642B. They can pay all their debt next quarter if they want to.

Routine-District-588

Metaverse is a shit show, yes it will be a sunk cost. they burnt like 17B on the metaverse last year. The market didn't like that FCF being down q3 2025 on q3 2024. This wil change with money big chunk of money from the metaverse moving to Ai spend or to buybacks.

Maakus

There are many stock analysis sites that provide insider trading with names of insiders. He has been selling like this for the whole year. It's hard to invest when executives have so many shares and stock based comp. This company takes all of its 3% FCF and gives it to employees. Thats what makes it risky so buyer beware. [Heres the last ten insider trades. ](https://imgur.com/a/c4qV75f)

PTRBoyz

I loaded the boat on META AMZN TSLA during the panic the past couple of weeks. Those were my focus stocks for 2026 (alongside GOOGL and UNH which I already own). I entered into starter positions in RBRK and PATH (very small position honestly, they need to show growth accelerating and and DBNR over 120% for me to be real bullish, but just gamble sized) today which I think could end up being good winners next year (both should get bought out).  I’m also eying BA as a value play now that they’re flipping FCF positive. And would buy RL for some non tech exposure if it consolidated or corrects a little.