FCF

JerryCurlEarl69

I will not dispute that there is accounting noise, but this is not a secret either. The company explicitly mentioned that non-GAAP EPS was inflated by 2.52$ per share because of this. That means the company made 3.37$ per share in the quarter. Forward EPS is still probably around 14-15$ without any acquisition-related increase to earnings. That means the stock is trading around 15x even with this today's gain. The company increased FCF by 81% YoY and that isn't even affected by mark-to-market gain and its new segments are growing substantially. It still expects to buyback 25 billion of stock. For a company of this quality and potential revenue growth, I do not see much downside to this.

feng_sg

OCF up 25% doesn't make the 91% FCF drop the wrong number. Capex went $17.01B to $31.07B. That's \~$14B extra, and impression/price growth already show up in the $31.86B OCF. None of that says the new spend earns its cost of capital.

PyloPower

What economy? War, sticky inflation, high interest, most profitable companies in the world seeing their FCF compress to zero, geopolitical tension at a 50-year high, multiple unusual interventions of the largest central bank in the world? You meant "in this meme market".

KnownButton8327

They also committed to returning 60%+ of FCF to investors

Ehh_littlecomment

In addition to bonds, Google did what 80B in equity issuances? Looks like unlimited FCF.

Rich-Badger-7601

Taking in so much cash that they had to stop buybacks, issue debt and dilute their equity holders just to keep their current spend rates going lmaoooo Google alone went from like $100B+ a year in share buybacks to a whopping $0 and it still wasn't enough to save their FCF

yourgirl696969

It’s the space race on steroids. Both countries gonna spend every penny building compute. I’m not sure why people think it’ll stop lol all the major tech companies in China are also spending all their FCF on Data centres too. Imagine thinking you’re smarter than the top CEOs in the world lol

MitchCurry

That isn't math so much as you saying a number with no way of getting to it but whatever, let's work with it. Also will assume you meant FCF, not CFC. So you need growth to accelerate from 82% to >100% for the next 8 quarters AND have FCF margins increase to >60% to reach $20B FCF. So yes, if PLTR increases growth to >100% for the next 8 quarters and increases FCF margin to >60%, I agree, it's currently cheap right now.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

Settlement is almost 80% of FCF for the past year. That’s manageable but it’s a significant penalty.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

lol…using market cap as a reference point. Market cap is nit a tangible asset for companies to pay bills and claims. This amount is over 77% of their FCF for the past year.

alphixir

Right, and the way to actually quantify what shareholders give up is the diluted share count over time, not the income statement. Roblox's stock-based comp ran over $1.1B in fiscal 2025 against roughly $1.5B in quarterly revenue, and all of it shows up as more shares outstanding rather than a cash expense line. FCF tells you the company isn't burning cash; the share count trend tells you what that comp actually costs existing holders.

tundraaaa

They're not deep in debt lol. Net debt/TTM EBITDA is 1.46x. Analysts project their FCF to be $1.1B in FY27 vs net debt of $1.12B.

illonlybeonforaminut

That’s your call if you want to base valuation on non-GAAP measure and/or EBITDA. Companies will share whatever story makes them look the best. FCF is a great metric but you need to watch what % of that FCF is spent on buybacks to neutralize dilution (aka sterilization).

Jeff__Skilling

>When looking at what caused the other Giants to fail, it looks like Nike might be repeating the same mistakes. The common denominator among the four listed in the OP is that they were B2C retail businesses with a significant physical prescense and convoluted / expensive supply chain that got outcompeted by Amazon, unburdened from the overhead of owning a portfolio of physical outlets. How does this apply to Nike? From what I understand, their B&M presence is pretty marginal -- their cash balance on their BS exceeds PP&E, Net. Their 10-K shows ~$700MM in capex on ~$2.9bn in OCF -- so over $2.0bn in FCF on the year. Having a really hard time seeing how Nike falls into the same bucket as Blockbuster, Sears, Toys R Us, Circuit City, and every other pre-internet business that got their shit handed to them by the e-commerce sector in the 00s...

UsefulStooge

Yeah this post is nonsense - Nike doing poorly is not the same as them being close to collapse. Huge gross margin gives them a lot of wiggle room. They have just been making poor decisions on where they spend their gross margin.  *But* on the other hand $NKE share price has a lot more room to fall based on FCF vs risk free rate.  Both can be true.

lightning_Mcking29

FCF not covering the dividend is a fair yellow flag and the stock is ugly for good reasons, but Nike isn’t a pure-play retailer stuck in a dying format with no brand power left. Balance sheet + brand + product pipeline give it runway the others didn’t have. Turnaround still has to deliver, though

Correct_Mastodon1112

I do. But whether their spend/debt and sacrifice to FCF yields acceptable ROI is tbd

Which_Cost8015

My earnings watchlist this week. I’m holding options on all x 4: NVDA is the main read-through for the entire AI capex cycle. I’ll be watching guidance, Blackwell/Rubin demand, gross margin, China exposure and whether hyperscaler spending still looks strong. MRVL is the more interesting. Custom AI silicon, networking and optics are where I want to see whether the Google deal and broader AI bookings are actually pushing FY27/FY28 expectations higher. IREN is the higher-risk infrastructure test. I’m less focused on the headline EPS number and more on whether contracted ARR is converting, GPUs are getting deployed on schedule, and capex is turning into usable capacity. CRWD gives a different angle. It’s the software/security read on AI. Net-new ARR and FCF matter, but I really want to see whether AI is accelerating actual platform adoption rather than just giving management another talking point. If I had to narrow it down, NVDA tells me whether the AI buildout is still intact. MRVL tells me where the next layer of that spend may be showing up. DYOR.

Stoic_Brain

VFLO looks great but is US-based (I am from EU country and can't buy this). Some other differences: VFLO is distributing, and has 50 US-companies. XDEV is accumulating, and has 400 companies of developed countries (US, Japan, European countries, ...). So a bit different but I like how VFLO focusses on FCF rules.

Full_Cash6140

Plenty of cheap commodity stocks out there with enormous FCF yields. I hold a few stocks with forward PE of 3!

Disastrous_Rent_6500

The reason why Nike is not attractive based on this metric is because technically speaking leaving FCF in a money market fund has a higher economic yield than buying back stock at this price

W_Edwards_Deming

I didn't mention the PEG, which is great. ROE is my first metric and it fails. P/E is one of he highest I have seen, as with the P/FCF. No dividend, profit margin barely passes.

Organic-Energy7300

Azioni Wide Moat che presentano fondamentali di primissimo ordine per FCF, EBIT Margin e ROIC. 100 azioni per titolo, assegnate in tempi diversi tramite la vendita di opzioni put. Tra dividendi e vendita di covered call, queste posizioni mi generano un discreto rendimento da flusso di cassa: ​Illinois Tool Works(ITW)Industriale; ​AbbVie (ABBV) Pharma; ​Morgan Stanley (MS) Finanza; ​Chevron (CVX) Energia; ​Procter & Gamble (PG) Consumer Staples; ​Waste Management (WM) Utilities & Servizi Ambientali.

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Do you understand FCF? Their cows are not printing fast enough

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Wouldn’t have negative FCF and borrowing money if they had infinite cash like you claim 🤷🏿‍♂️

BriackYOLO

Negative FCF from temporary CapEx spikes doesn't mean they are broke

W_Edwards_Deming

AMD does not match my fundamentals. The P/E and P/FCF are absurd, no dividend and worst of all the ROE. Good luck...

Puzzleheaded_War6102

They don’t have infinite cash if their FCF is negative and debt going up 😂

Puzzleheaded_War6102

Hyperscalers don’t have cash. They are in fact debt financing and using off balance sheet finance and all have negative FCF except MSFT.

icydragon_12

Sure fair. But they've had capital discipline too. GOOG has spent \~5% of operating CF and FCF as "other bets" pretty consistently. At the peak of reality labs, META spent \~25-30% of OCF and 70% of FCF .. on nothing.

Which_Cost8015

The buyback is meaningful, but one nuance matters. SK Hynix recently issued 17.79M new shares for the U.S. listing, and 10 U.S. ADSs represent one Korean common share. The new buyback covers about 24.07M shares, or 3.3% of shares outstanding. So the bigger thesis for me isn’t the $29B headline. It’s whether HBM cash generation stays strong enough to fund massive capacity investment while still returning 50%+ of FCF to shareholders. That’s what could drive the rerating.

Which_Cost8015

Right now STRL is at the top of my list, followed by CLS and FN. STRL has the cleanest gap between what the market seems to be pricing and what I think the underlying business is showing. CLS has stronger growth but a higher expectations bar, while FN is interesting after the reset but I want better FCF conversion. I’m not treating any of them as “buy at any price” though. The entry still has to make sense relative to the thesis.

octopus_serenader

Look at the chart for VFLO etf it's all high FCF.

Etherius

Considering capex is explicitly subtracted from operating income to get the FCF number, it’s no surprise there. Yes we get it. Capex is very high. But these are also companies completely flush with hundreds of billions in cash.

icydragon_12

I'd buy META over RDDT. Both stocks face market overhangs for different reasons, with uncertain timeline to resolution. But in the case of META, the market has already digested, to some degree, the magnitude of the problem (Capex eating FCF/ uncertain ROI), and seems to be oscillating between: the capex will generate ROI and .. no it won't. Obv the performance of the stock depends on operating performance at this point. If they can show operating strength, it will validate the spend. My sense is that GOOG and RDDT will come to an understanding, but we could get 1 or 2 quarters where GOOG gives us a glimpse of how much they can decelerate RDDT's growth.

Thetagang888

Zuck will cuck you. But I wouldnt bet against him. I also would dip buy at least a bit on a FCF monster machine that prints money every quarter.

MitchCurry

I disagree on the momentum loss argument. Utilization is still climbing at the same rate it was a year ago and recurring revenue is 85% of the total and growing 19%, instruments & accessories revenue per procedure rose in Q2, FCF is up 75% YTD y/y. They placed 468 systems in Q2 (18% growth y/y) with 53% of those placements being the next-gen dV5 system (which has accelerating placement growth) along with meaningful margin improvements. ISRG has close to 12,000 da Vinci's deployed. Seems like a lot until you realize a hospital with enough beds and surgeries to financially justify having a da Vinci is close to 25,000 worldwide and many hospitals that have a robot are extremely willing to upgrade to next-gen versions. ISRG is in the early innings of their European, Asian (ex. Japan) LatAm, and Middle East expansion. They only just signed a direct distribution deal in Italy, Spain, and Portugal.

VotedOut

The individual companies that are trading at low forward P/E ratios relative to their historic forwards are likely either CYCLICAL (semi-conductor and computer hardware companies) or mature companies spending now spending heavy on CapEx (such as META, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN - their Price/FCF ratios are now more expensive than they've ever been) . There's a reason that one of the charts I linked is the Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio (current price / 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings) rather than just plain P/E ratio or 12-month forward P/E ratio. Semiconductors companies are experiencing a period of abnormally high profits and margins right now that I question the sustainability of. There's a very good chance that companies like Nvidia and Micron will have a margin crash and earnings crash sometime in 2027-2029 as data centers come online, supply begins to meet demand, and then supply exceeds demand because they over-built. As a rule of thumb, if you see a company's revenue and earnings shoot up very fast within a very short time period, you should be suspicious about the sustainability of the revenue & earnings. The P/E ratios of banks were fairly normal-looking and their earnings were growing well just before they got wrecked in the Great Recession. You had to dig a bit deeper underneath to see what was going on. With all that said, no I don't have puts on companies that have P/E ratios within a normal range incase my thesis that their earnings are not sustainable is wrong. But my suspicion about their earnings sustainability is enough to keep me out of investing in them, as at least 2-3 years of earnings growth is priced into them, and I don't want to be holding them incase the market starts re-pricing them to forecasting a cyclical decline or recession.

YourWifesBoyfrien69

\> They are also likely to lose the lawsuits paving the way for more attorney generals to steal their FCF This I would not be so sure. If meta is found guilty, then it kind of applies to all social networks. Have you see the shit posted on Truth Social?

Rich-Badger-7601

/thread The man somehow found a way to run a company making $100B in *profit* into a negative FCF in less than three years, just awe inspiring work

RepresentativeTill90

Zuckerberg has to balance short term profits to long term bets. This makes meta a good long term investment since it is not short sighted and bets heavily on future returns. You should be okay with short term headwinds to FCF only then should you invest. Same goes with Amazon stock.

No_Cell6708

Been looking at both the last year and it's genuinely insane how expensive they are given how slowly they're growing at this point. I understand that they're considered to be extremely safe, but the valuations just don't make any sense. $900B for something like $15B in FCF is wild

WilliamTeacher

Anything to avoid signalling that they’re increasing production capacity. The market fears a supply glut if DRAM / NAND more than anything for memory stocks and rightfully so. Expenditure of their FCF on anything other than production capacity is bullish. Samsung and Micron are also following suit - this should all A) boost share price and B) maintain the memory shortage until the planned 2028 and perhaps beyond.

dwoj206

from a corporate treasury management standpoint, it very much is. Also incremental benefit to FCF to use stock based comp vs. cash.

JabCrossE4E5Quark

Metas earnings are a mirage. EPS is boosted by the way they depreciate their capex. EPS is also boosted by gains on investments being M2Md. Also, based on FCF, what is Metas multiple?

yourgirl696969

SKHY doing buybacks (28 billion I think) causes 6% rally in Korea. Imagine Micron buybacks starting December after the chips act expires. Projected to have at least $300 billion FCF by 2028. All going to buybacks. This is the cheapest memory stocks are gonna be

PaleCommission150

you can't really go by FCF either as all the earnings are being poured into R and D.

octopus_serenader

Just threw some cash into VFLO etf to hold for a while. Literally an FCF index, I like it.

Normal_Ad5955

FCF going negative, Capex through the roof, Eps is going to be down significantly over the coming years due to depreciation on chips, and investors dont see the ROI on capex like Amazon or Google. Solid long term play though.

ap1618

Biotech is incredibly cyclical, look at their FCF and you'll understand. MRNA is a cool pick but for every MRNA, there are thousands that don't work out.

MitchCurry

Since buying into CROX in Aug 2023. every time I look at the stock valuation, I wonder why I don't own more. HEYDUDE's revenue decline is slowing and is likely to return to growth by the end of Q4, company gross margins are still incredible, Crocs NA returned to growth. It currently trades at 9x their FY26 adj. EPS guidance midpoint and <9x on trailing FCF. This is almost exactly the same valuation I paid in Aug 2023 despite the share count being almost *20% smaller* thanks to buybacks. Even being conservative on a rDCF with 2% terminal growth rate, 10% discount, -3% annual dilution, and just a 10% FCF margin (they've been 14% to 23% the past 6 years), it's priced for -1% revenue growth annually over the next decade.

BitOne5143

1: Really depends what your goals are. But yes my models are accurate. The model is similar for dividend or growth stocks, the only difference is that a dividend stock gives its profits to shareholders and growth stocks re-invest profits to increase sales and profits in the future. I invest in growth stocks since I don’t have $300K plus to make anything reasonable from dividends. 2: I deal with stock prices dips by knowing why I bought the stock - most dips are temporary if bought at a low price relative to its value. 3: for me, I have a portfolio of 4 stocks. But for most people, diversification is better. 4: separate hype stocks from growth by looking at fundamentals (revenue, net income, FCF, ROIC) and knowing the business. 5: depending on the industry, I check if the industry is growing, cyclical or shrinking. Statista is pretty good but studying the stock and is position in the industry is more important. Forms like 10-K, 10-q etc. 6: I have savings in cash so I have that buffer in case of an emergency so I don’t sell stock

Inevitable_Zebra_0

All hyperscalers do that, but MSFT manages to maintain healthy 20b$ FCF this quarter while being in the race, and 67b$ for the fiscal year. All other hyperscalers sacrificed their FCF either to practically 0, or to the negative zone. It's easy to see why MSFT is and will be treated by the market much better that Meta. \> But META's shareholder structure is the most f out of all hyperscalers Maybe, though in terms of the balance sheet, the most regarded in Oracle. I won't be surprised if it goes bankrupt in 5 years.

JohnnyDrama611

Meta's Q2 operating margin compressed to 31% from 43% YoY, mostly a $2.4B legal charge and $1.18B severance, and FCF fell 91% to $784M because $31.1B of capex ate nearly all operating cash flow. TTD's Q3 guide of $650M implies revenue down roughly 9% YoY, operating margin down to 14.2% from 16.8%, FCF margin down to 19% from 40.1% the prior quarter. Both stories are worse than the headline multiple shows, but TTD's trajectory is negative while Meta's core ad business is still accelerating.

BeepBoopDep

For regards saying sk buyback news doesn't matter: sk made more profits in one quarter this year than all of Muskrats grift companies ever made in their entire lifetime. They can actually afford to buy up a significant portion of their float on FCF alone.

Midget_Molester10

what I love about this is that there is no new news specific to MU or SNDK, we already knew they were going to return their FCF to their shareholders, yet it still causes this massive pump.

Fickle-Gold6606

Share buybacks plus cancellations reduce the share count, which lifts EPS and can support the price. Targeting over 50% of FCF for returns shows strong cash generation and a shareholder-friendly stance. Amid the AI memory boom and high profits, this is generally viewed as positive for the stock and may offer near-term demand.

Fickle-Gold6606

SK Hynix commits to returning 50%+ of FCF to shareholders — via buybacks, share cancellations, and dividends

Etherius

FCF looks bad during capex cycles. Always does But not spending is riskier than spending.

Etherius

“Shady accounting” Nothing shady about it. FCF is down because capex is up. These are companies that have classically been asset-light being forced into massive asset purchases. Of course FCF is down.

icydragon_12

nah. I'll preface this by saying, I'm a professional analyst and I actually own meta. Earnings really isn't the story. What accrues to shareholders is FCF. that's essentially cash flows less capex . The company's capex has exploded and now FCF is 0 and going negative. This means that.. nothing is accruing to shareholders at the moment. They're obviously not the only ones. Other hyperscalers are doing this as well. But META's shareholder structure is the most fucked out of all hyperscalers, in that Zuck has supervoting shares. That means that he could, if he wanted to, literally set money on fire.

mattyhtown

The only thing that’s changed is all the hyperscalers reported -FCF, kospi has been wild. The yen is… something and now china has a rival chip maker in cmtx that people can throw money at. The Sk Hynix crowd had to take a little volume from micron too. If they didn’t have it in gdrs or in Korea. But ya i agree except that the new open Chinese models are so impressive and so efficient that the future HBM demand could be in for a small set back. But probably not. More efficient models just leads to more people using the models . Back to jevons paradox

Lootoholic

$26B market cap, 0.1B revenue; -2B FCF; surly it should double in 1.5 year. It's not like they have any competition in the market. what could go wrong?

hoopaholik91

You just gotta look at FCF

icydragon_12

FCF is what actually accrues to shareholders. Why's it the "wrong number"?

mayorolivia

Sndk is heading to $1T market cap. Their FCF can buy back entire public float in a couple of years. Money printing company.

Big-Today6819

In a way most of the money is gone in a few years, so there's a FCF risk here.

Lootoholic

forget about all the shares getting released, Elon is gonna dilute the shit out of this company. He wants 10GW datacenter and that costs at least $500B-$700B which means a couple of years of constant dilution with negative FCF and negative income.

jennysonson

Investors know exactly what FCF and actual Operating income was, headlines are for the rest.

Revfunky

My thought is you run the risk of a late-cycle setup. The bear case would be AI building is running into a capital problem. The big hyper scalers(Amazon,META, Oracle, Alphabet, Microsoft)are spending faster than FCF can cover. Capex for the group is approaching $725 billion this year and could approach a billion in the years after. Operating cash flow is still growing but not fast enough to keep up. To keep the party going these companies have piled on debt along with some creative accounting in signed off-balance-sheet lease and GPU supply deals. So we have creative financing right as FCF gets weaker, and a lot of it funded by post-Covid liquidity that is now drying up. Bear or bull, both sides agree the next few quarters will be telling. The capital is no longer free. Will we see short-term tightening or repricing. The market is trying to figure that out. I have 50 stocks to buy on my desk. META is not on the list, of course you can buy whatever you want.

thelastsubject123

At the end of the day, the business is what matters. They're growing nearly 30% top line and still growing their bottom line. When their capex cycle normalizes, the inflection to massive FCF will be swift

thelastsubject123

Exactly, as long as ad pricing and conversion rates keep compounding, this is standard front-loaded infrastructure investment. When the capex cycle eventually cools, that cash flow converts right back into FCF.

thelastsubject123

Fair point on the depreciation risk, but the fundamental difference from Reality Labs is where the compute actually goes. Reality Labs was pure R&D burn on unproven hardware. This capex directly powers the recommendation and ad-ranking engines which are already driving higher conversions (up \~16%) and double-digit ad pricing growth. We saw this exact dynamic during the early AWS/Azure buildout cycles: massive upfront spending, ugly short-term FCF, and heavy depreciation before capacity utilization caught up. Once this buildout phase normalizes, Meta’s underlying operating cash flow will translate straight into massive free cash flow again.

ga643953

I don't think it's the FCF anymore. It's the implications of all these dumb lawsuits. If a company can be sued for the product being too good (not because Facebook is full of ads from scammers and bots), then it creates an environment where companies can be punished for trying to make a good product.

nobertan

Unless capex ends up as a write down like all the reality labs ‘investments’. Sentiment and trajectory on AI infrastructure is turning and Meta has repeatedly flubbed on their model competitiveness AND traction since their early llama model gains. Fact is, due to demand they are massively overpaying for that capex. Then add the rapid depreciation of those assets classes… They need to demonstrate profit or efficiency improvements within the next year to have a hope of justifying the CAPEX impact on FCF.

Narrow_Entrance_3169

Capex doubling is the whole story here, everyone panicking about FCF like the cash is just gone. Theyre spending it on infrastructure not lighting it on fire. If the ad engine keeps printing at 27% growth the capex pays for itself eventually.

Tonystark_of_stonks

FCF is investor’s favorite metric

SxeySteve

Klarna will be standard business school curriculum some day. They have $1.4B in debt and negative levererd FCF. Real banks gave them money lend to people who can't afford a burrito bowl.

Imaginary-Lake28

sorry, I must have missed the "we will spend all our money and FCF to roleplay cisco in the dotcom bubble" section in hyperscalers' last quarterly reports, silly me

Hypnot1se

Of course not. In the same way that people didn't entirely scrap their theses once the memory stocks began to pull back, the bear thesis is a macro structural thesis. The bear case matters a lot, which is why the stocks did have a severe selloff - but the bull case matters too. The sheer inertia of the money being made and the momentum of the "structural shift" narrative creates a volatile tug of war between long term margin compression from the nature of the business and the absurd current FCF being chased for rapid gains in a short period. Ironically, although the DRAM holdings have recovered - they are just about back at the levels they were at when I initially took my bearish position. The movements are still so far consistent with what I imagined might happen. That said - now that that it *has* happened, it makes returning to previous ATHs much more likely than it was previously. We could see a double top or even a new ATH in memory stocks before we see the gravity of the structural challenges facing them actually take precedent over the valuations. Keep in mind - my POV is from a long term investment standpoint. From that POV, memory stocks still looked horrible after the pullback. However - from a short term/momentum POV, it made them look *very* attractive. These are not pointless assets, just dangerous for long term investors that don't get the industry.

cyanberrymuffin

In 2022 when the 10yr yield was this high, all the experts said tech was uninvestable because the PE was too high and FCF was not enough. PE is even higher now and FCF is even lower for the mag 7. Just goes to show everything is about vibes not fundamentals. Sometimes the vibe is that we should pay attention to fundamentals and sometimes its not lol

visionarymind

…did you miss the chart where it was $375 @ ER❓ A lot of people are down bigly because it sold off 10% over FCF concerns even the market hasn’t cared about other companies reporting the same negative FCf

Sweaty_Platypus69

We got to stop valuing stocks using P/E ratio. That shit is outdated. Today its P/FCF. That what market is pricing those AI stocks anyways.

Boring-Test5522

keep it in mind that Google & Amazon are no longer an asset light business. You have to consider FCF and their operating expense trend like oil & gas companies. Investors are worrying a out Their FCF and OE trend.

bankrupt27

The cash and FCF are exactly why the Enron comparison makes no sense. Growth slowing someday is almost certain — every company eventually slows. But “growth will slow” and “the company is a house of cards” are completely different arguments.

Equivalent-Snow3651

Nobody cares about FCF lmao they want what they can't have

OldManYellsAtCloud12

Can't fake cash in the bank and massive FCF lol. Eventually customers will grow tired of nvda and growth will slow, when it does NVDA share price will collapse like a house of cards.

microdosingrn

While not entirely useless, EBITDA is ridiculous.  For all of the reasons it is so, the opposite reasons why you really need to look at FCF, not just "earnings".  But also, fcf doesn't tell the whole story especially for capex monsters, the balance sheet / assets will provide clarification.

HeavySink3303

There will be fake earnings then like converting notes to preferred stocks of a 'friendly' private company right before the call and so on. More or less only FCF and dividend yield are relevant now.

xl-87

What matters most is how much FCF is generated... not the top line sales.

Lootoholic

yeah their business is not exciting anymore and that reflects in their numbers. they are not growing revenue 30% like they used to in the past, but still it's not like their revenue is in free fall. If it was a dying business why would Stripe wanted to buy them? Stripe needs them because Paypal has 3 times higher FCF than Stripe, and yet stripe is privately valued 3 times higher than paypal. So there is a factor of 9 times difference there, which means that Stripe can't go IPO on that lofty price as long as paypal is being traded dirt cheap. That's the whole reason why they need to take them out before going public.

SuddsNYJ

If nvda is guaranteed to drop after earnings everyone will be buying puts. When it goes up ill be hanging for the squeeze. All of the mag7 are expecting 200+billion in capex for 2027. All of these companies want nvidias blackwell. Billions and billions of dollars are flowing to nvda from the rest of the mag7. If you paid attention to earnings this season, companies with high FCF and expected capex are raising on beat earnings. Theres NO question NVIDIA will smash earnings, and theyre expected to have 200+mil in FCF with over a 75% margin on their products!! Nvidia will be a 6 trillion dollar company. Which would be a $250 share price. Getting there before or after earnings is my bet 🤷‍♂️

Lootoholic

It's because the stock is truly cheap. trading at 8x FCF while the revenue is still growing slowly. They better come up with a much higher offer if they want to buy it.

DaoCacaoo

fair , the advance payment is real cash either way. the size is the part i keep looking at -the gap between their two FCF numbers is the prepayment itself , about 51.4b in one quarter, sitting next to the 52.8b of capex. that is the spending pressure you are describing, just showing up in cash. the policy push i cannot check against anything, so no argument from me there

phillytennisenjoyer

i mean they just reported for the quarter and we’re almost certainly fcf negative at the time their stock was at 270 and everyone and their mom knew it it’s not a fucking surprise they guided for 200 billion in cap ex its simple math. you are an example of someone who will endlessly look at stupid documents and and statements and listen to cnbc and yadda yadda yadda and then underperform the market because literally all the matters is sentiment and predicting sentiment. you aren’t going to look at publicly available q10s or earnings transcripts and get an edge my guy. literally the price is 345 right now. if your so confident it’s going down because of FCF negative (which everyone in the world knows), are you short?

LaZeR_Strike

Wrong, google was not FCF negative at 270 :( You literally dont have a clue what you are talking about.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Rev guidance of mid-to-high teens growth y/y and FCF margin of 50% from the Investor Day suggestd that SanDisk has the ability to generate $100bn of cash flow from FY '28 - FY '30, which if used for buybacks could repurchase almost **1/2 of the current market cap**

LaZeR_Strike

Without a solid reason, said the guy who ivested money in a company not even following whats is going with it. There is a very good reason they are FCF negative and are issuing debt to finance the Data Center build out [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000119312526340264/d32286d424b2.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000119312526340264/d32286d424b2.htm)

Puzzleheaded-One-607

**dLocal (NASDAQ:DLO)** reported strong second quarter 2026 results, with Total Payment Volume of **US$17.7 billion**, up 92% year-over-year, and revenue of **US$399.7 million**, up 56%. Gross profit reached a record **US$127.2 million**(+29%), while operating profit was **US$64.2 million** (+15%). Net income rose 28% to **US$54.8 million**, or US$0.18 diluted EPS. Adjusted free cash flow was **US$68.5 million**(+41% YoY) with 125% conversion versus net income. dLocal raised 2026 TPV guidance to 60–70% growth and gross profit growth to 25–30%, maintaining operating profit growth guidance at 27.5–32.5%. The company held **US$794.9 million** in cash and equivalents, repurchased 6.9 million Class A shares for US$86.1 million under its US$300 million program, and entered a new **US$150 million**senior unsecured credit facility maturing in 2029. dLocal Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results [**Rhea-AI Impact**](https://www.stocktitan.net/rhea-ai.html#impact) (Moderate) [**Rhea-AI Sentiment**](https://www.stocktitan.net/rhea-ai.html#sentiment) (Neutral) Tags [**earnings**](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/earnings.html) **Rhea-AI Summary** **dLocal (NASDAQ:DLO)** reported strong second quarter 2026 results, with Total Payment Volume of **US$17.7 billion**, up 92% year-over-year, and revenue of **US$399.7 million**, up 56%. Gross profit reached a record **US$127.2 million**(+29%), while operating profit was **US$64.2 million** (+15%). Net income rose 28% to **US$54.8 million**, or US$0.18 diluted EPS. Adjusted free cash flow was **US$68.5 million**(+41% YoY) with 125% conversion versus net income. dLocal raised 2026 TPV guidance to 60–70% growth and gross profit growth to 25–30%, maintaining operating profit growth guidance at 27.5–32.5%. The company held **US$794.9 million** in cash and equivalents, repurchased 6.9 million Class A shares for US$86.1 million under its US$300 million program, and entered a new **US$150 million**senior unsecured credit facility maturing in 2029. **Positive** **TPV growth** \+92% YoY to US$17.7 billion in Q2 2026 **Revenue** \+56% YoY to US$399.7 million in Q2 2026 **Net income** \+28% YoY to US$54.8 million; diluted EPS US$0.18 **Adjusted free cash flow** \+41% YoY to US$68.5 million; 125% of net income **Guidance raised** for 2026 TPV to 60–70% growth and gross profit to 25–30% **Share repurchases** of 6.9 million Class A shares for US$86.1 million in Q2 **Total cash and equivalents** US$794.9 million as of June 30, 2026 **Negative** **Gross profit margin** declined to 32% from 39% a year earlier (−7 p.p.) **Gross profit over TPV** fell to 0.72% from 1.07% in Q2 2025 **Net income margin** decreased to 14% from 17% in Q2 2025 (−3 p.p.) **Operating expenses** \+46% YoY in Q2 2026 to US$63.0 million **Corporate cash** decreased US$82.7 million QoQ due to dividends and buybacks **New debt** US$150 million senior unsecured credit facility maturing in 2029 **News Explained** The reported second-quarter results show strong growth, but scaling came with lower margins: gross profit margin fell to 32% from 39% year over year, while operating profit rose 15% to US$64.2 million. **Market Reaction** ** ** **– DLO** **+3.73%** $14.81 2.4x vol **15m delay** AI-generated analysis. [How Rhea-AI works](https://www.stocktitan.net/rhea-ai.html). Not financial advice.  **Don't miss StockTitan's market coverage in Google Search and AI answers.** [**Add on Google**](https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=stocktitan.net) Not now [](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=%24DLO%20dLocal%20Reports%20Second%20Quarter%202026%20Financial%20Results%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.stocktitan.net%2Fnews%2FDLO%2Fd-local-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-la7il283tox2.html) [](https://reddit.com/submit?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stocktitan.net%2Fnews%2FDLO%2Fd-local-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-la7il283tox2.html&title=dLocal%20Reports%20Second%20Quarter%202026%20Financial%20Results) [](https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stocktitan.net%2Fnews%2FDLO%2Fd-local-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-la7il283tox2.html&quote=%24DLO%20%7C%20dLocal%20Reports%20Second%20Quarter%202026%20Financial%20Results) [](https://www.google.com/preferences/source?q=stocktitan.net) *08/13/2026 - 01:05 PM* *TPV reached nearly US$18 billion (+92% year-over-year), the 7th consecutive quarter of 50%+ growth, and continued acceleration over the last 5 quarters.* *Record gross profit: US$127 million (+29% year-over-year).* *Operating profit: US$64 million (+15% year-over-year), with Operating Profit/Gross Profit ratio reaching 50%(+6 p.p. quarter-over-quarter); operating leverage to improve in the second half of 2026.* *Net income at US$55 million (+28% year-over-year), diluted EPS $0.18 (vs. $0.14 in 1Q26).* *Adj. Free Cash Flow US$69 million (+41% year-over-year), Adj. FCF/Net income conversion of 125%.* *Guidance update: TPV guidance raised to 60–70%year-over-year and Gross profit to 25–30% year-over-year; Operating profit guidance maintained at 27.5–32.5% year-over-year.* MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay, Aug. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DLocal Limited (“dLocal”, “we”, “us”, and “our”) (NASDAQ:[**DLO**](https://www.stocktitan.net/overview/DLO/)), the leading cross-border financial infrastructure platform connecting global merchants to emerging markets, today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. dLocal’s management team will host a conference call and audio webcast on August 13, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Please [click here](https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=kNaM51jXJJX8xKsD0nACa81WeujWPDpXpnLOL2h3C2jw-h9brRLoFr_T3UaFj8SRQm3hAI_M2eimU-WBwdvbMRWnO3jV8uu82SH4x-yuMJ_9xwIpEECoA8WgpvCZxKnt9is_FSJpV9cUQ7__Bzfryyj_UxYfNTS749vukxyHFKs=) to pre-register for the conference call and obtain your dial in number and passcode. *“TPV growth has remained above 50% year-over-year for seven consecutive quarters, with the last three quarters at or above 70%. Growth has also accelerated over the past five quarters, reaching its highest year-over-year rate in four years. Although the pace and scale of this growth will naturally create more demanding comparisons as we move through the second half of the year and into 2027, what we are seeing today reflects the positive returns on the investments we have made in our platform and portfolio of licenses. It is also a testament to the trust merchants place in us as they build and grow across emerging markets,” said Pedro Arnt, CEO of dLocal.*

StandardObject91

I'm long 2500 shares. Screwed myself ot of about 15k last week because I wrote some covered calls. Her's my story on CHTR Bullet points: Multi-year rural expansion winding down and system wide upgrade almost complete will reduce Capex by \~3.5B a year - from 11.5 to 8. This goes straight to FCF. Video - Losses should abate now that streaming services are available via the cable bundle. Cost of buying the individual services costs almost the same as the bundle. Some subscribers will only want some of the streaming services to save a few bucks, but most of them have already made the switch. Broadband- Overbuilding is an annoying threat but much of the cream has been skimmed. Overbuilding should abate, or at a minimum, have less of an effect as less attractive markets are built out. It's unlikely that a satisfactory ROI would be met by any prospective third competitor. The most likely competitive environment is a stable duopoly with both mkt. participants profitable. Rural mkts. will likely be monopolies. Mobile- growing at 20%. 12.8mm lines. Currently no signs of slowing down Landline-VOIP declining but not a large portion of the business. Cox merger expected to result in 800mm to 1B of synergies. As a result of the above, FCF is expected to reach 9B at the midpoint by the end of 2027. At an expected post merger share count of 177mm (stated in q-2 earnings call) and current price of 150, the equity of the combined entity is worth \~27B, for a levered equity yield of roughly 33%. Debt reduction. The face value of Charter/Cox bond portfolio is roughly 100B but the Market value is \~10-12 Billion less. They just completed the first phase of a 20 Billion dollar debt restructuring. They will be announcing the effect of the first wave very soon. Tender offer ends August 12. I have spitballed the result. Charter will spend about 400mm in cash (probably from cash flow) and issue 4B of new bonds at \~7% to retire 5.3B of face amount bonds. This will result in a debt reduction of 1.3 Billion, which will be booked as one time gain next Q-That's over 10 dollars a share on current share count of 117mm. There is 15B restructuring still to come although, since they tendered for the lowest coupons, the discounts from face amt. in future tenders will be less. That's basically it for the ops piece. But how do you analyze the value of the combined Cox/Charter entity? One way that doesn't require a lot of brain damage or trying to generate your own estimate is to just look at the merger price. The implied equity price was about 324 dollars a share for Cox. Both companies had 7 digit fairness opinions prepared by Wall Street investment advisors. That's how it's done. So that's a pretty good data point. Better than yours or mine. Another meatball metric - A SOTP analysis of the Comcast "cable" business implies an EV of 185-192B. Charter will be bigger than Comcast post merger but just assume they are the same size. Subtracting 100b in debt leaves the Charter equity worth 85-92B At a post merger share count of 177mm. that makes the Charter equity worth \~ 520 bucks a share. Last meatball metric is this: Cox is almost exactly 1/5 the size of Charter and the total consideration to Cox was 34.5B. Valuing Charter at 5x of that, yields an EV for Charter of \~172.5B, add in Cox and you're looking at \~206B. Subtract 100B debt and divide by a 177mm share count. That gets you 600 bucks a share. If you think all of this is crazy, remember that less than 5 yrs. ago Charter traded at 800 dollars a share and just over 1 yr. ago traded at 425. Now trading at 150.