FL

KrustyKrebsCycle

Having a recurring wet dream where I load up on 0dte spy 600C and putin pulls out of ukraine and declares world peace. Jeromey rome powell then calls an emergency meeting and declares a war on recessions- rubber stamps a 500 bp cut to negative 25 bp and we QE all the way up to 700. I sell out but immediately buy in to SPY 280P, I know this pump can’t hold because I have three monitors. Next day, Yellen says inflation is under control, the US converts to the bitcoin standard and Satoshi hits a crip walk in Okeechobee FL. SPY drills to 150 and I cash out with a wad of sticky in my trousers.

BrainsNotBrawndo

Looked at the ones I already held this morning, opening the market at over $4 and shrugged, thought "Huh, must be just a relief rally from the Swiss banking rescue" Then straight to soccer practice, to spend some time honing my ability to score goals in my own net, ^(with some new soccer shoes from Foot Locker, naturally) Still managed a green day today overall, with gains outweighing the $FL failure loss by a 10:1 ratio, but still don't need unforced errors like that

BrainsNotBrawndo

* **Name of deceased:** $FL 43c weekly lottos * **Date and time of death:** March 20, 2023, 4PM EST * **Immediate cause of death:** Post-earnings IV crush, guidance 1. **Which is a result of the underlying cause**: Forgetting that today was already earnings, thereby clutching defeat from the jaws of victory. [Why did no-one warn me?](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11r3434/comment/jc6w59r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) 2. **Which itself a result of the underlying cause:** Hedgies probably * **Flair:** *Definitely* checks out

cannasseurs

Cresco's 7 new recently opened Sunnyside* dispensing locations in Florida are actually pulling in some good total sales amounts - looks like operating efficiencies are improving on average. FL OMMU change in total amounts sold from 1/13/2023 (new stores start to open) til 3/17/2023 THC (mgs) amount - ⬆️ 45.6% Flower (oz) amount - ⬆️ 29.4% Compared to a ⬆️ 33.3% store count increase https://twitter.com/cannasseursio/status/1637941806460727300?s=20

Many_Easy

Absolutely true! That we are even at that point where we are concerned about the validity of the wording and signatures being approved by the FL Supreme Court Review process due to politics and our current governor’s influence is surreal to me. From what I’ve read and heard, the petition drive funded by Trulieve for the most part has been very diligent and careful in its wording to comply with the FL Supreme Court’s requirements. If approved by the court, it requires 60% approval by voters. There is/was some talk of increasing approval % higher. I don’t know how possible that is or where that currently stands. If Florida voters legalize recreational cannabis, that will likely influence remainder of undecided states to move in similar direction. Trulieve is the MSO most likely to gain from this vote, but most other cannabis companies will likely see increase valuations as well. As a small Trulieve investor, I hope it passes if and when it’s added to ballot.

cannasseurs

Can't find any news. Would have to see if the active cases / ballot reviews are public somewhere on the FL judiciary government websites to really track it down. Haven't had time to look myself, but feel free to google around and see if you can find the supreme court session calendar for FL.

BrainsNotBrawndo

Lol, can’t spell *failure* without *FL* Buying one last batch of $FL 43c weekly lottos for $0.55. Fingers crossed

cannasseurs

Keep your eyes on the FL Supreme Court Review of the FL Marijuana Adult Use ballot initiative. If the court approves it, expect FL operating MSOs' stock to shoot up significantly.

BrainsNotBrawndo

Thanks for reminder of earnings this week. Bought some more FL $43c weeklies for $1.54 each. Thesis: World’s gonna need more running shoes from people dashing to their failing banks for withdrawals. *Taps temple*

Anim4ls

$FL safe buy easy money

willyourather

$FL is 7% up, crox gets up?

creemeeseason

FL up big pre market. Looks like overall revenue was down, but same store revenue was up. They also laid out a big plan for the future, which apparently wall street liked. It's an interesting time in retail right now.

Rameist2

Calls on FL, GIS, DRI, TME, SCVL Probably yolo into bank stocks

Appropriate_Meat2715

So you guys are arresting orange man, but can't arrest the bolso, who is an illegal immigrant staying at José Aldo's in Réunion, FL? LMAO, markets will continue choppy probably

RBuckB

All these posts about FL and fre money, but zero posts on the big play to cash in. I love it! I'll never tell. Show me your win porn next week!

MatrixOrigin

# Current and previous all time highs ||**mgs THC**|**mgs CBD**|**oz Flower**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**Verano**|\-|\-|Mar 3, 2023 (+7%)| |**Jungle Boys**|\-|\-|Mar 10, 2023 (+0.3%)| |**Green Dragon**|Mar 3, 2023 (+29%)|\-|Mar 10, 2023 (+2%)| |**FL State**|\-|\-|Dec 23, 2022 (+3%)| # Other highlights * New stores: Green Dragon * Patient count: 800,356 (+2,851) * 2nd highest ever: Ayr + Cresco + Jungle boys + Insa (mgs THC) and Trulieve + Insa (oz Flower) \------------------------------------------------------ [Last week's report](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/11on1e2/florida_ommu_weekly_update_march_10_2023/)

AGuyInUndies

DRSing. WSB & SStonk could be the new Quincy, FL.

brianthalion

Yep FL native here, were up about 100%. It's such a farce.

dinglebarrybonds

https://i.imgur.com/uQ2hhrK.jpg We had best weather day of the year, mid 70s lotsa nice clear sunshine with a breeze in central FL

CannaVestments

Tough end to the year for Cresco Labs in Q4, with misses on consensus revenue/aEBIDTA, declining margins, and elevated OpEx. While Cresco maintained their leading branded product distribution platform (highlighted by their unit sales growth), the tough wholesale environment is clear with the top-line shrinking $18M over the past 2 quarters with profitability sliding along with it. Like others, Cresco pointed towards cash flow optimization and balance sheet stability as the core focuses in 2023- with their exit from California as a foundational first step (reflected in a $141M impairment taken in the quarter) . More will be needed though in advance of their potential closure of the Columbia Care acquisition. Comparisons to Q3: **Revenue:** Q3 $210.5M to Q4 $199.6M *5.2% consecutive decline was behind consensus ($204M), largely off the same base outside of a few stores opened in FL in the quarter. Outside of 4 more stores in PA and additional expansion in FL, no new assets to turn on for Cresco until/if the Columbia Care merger goes through.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** Q3 $41.7M to Q4 $30.5M *26.9% qoq decline was a big miss on consensus ($42M), w/ margin declining from 19.8% in Q3 to 15.3% in Q4. Note this figure adjusted out $12.7M in one-time costs and $5.3M in SBC so actual EBIDTA even worse at $12.5M.* **Gross Margins:** Q3 47.1% to Q4 44.4% *Drop here mirrors what we've seen from most companies in Q4. Management did not some one-time inventory related costs that hurt GMs in the quarter.* **Operating Income:** Q3 $16.2M to Q4 -$142.6M *Drop in OI largely due to $141M impairment taken in the quarter. Even without though, OI would have been -$1.9M, a large drop from Q3 as gross profit declined and OpEx was higher.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $82.9M to Q4 $231.2M *Jump here again largely due to the impairment. W/o, OpEx would have been $90.5M, so a still a jump from Q3. OpEx as % of revenue w/o the impairment rises from 39.4% in Q3 to 45.3% in Q4.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q3 $25.6M to Q4 $3.6M *Waitng on full CF statement but tax payment timing llkely a factor. OCF to finish the year was $18.7M, slightly better than the $14.5M in 2021 but likely negative when taxes are factored in.* **Cash:** Q3 $130.0 to Q4 $121.5M *Again waiting on CF statement for exact details but CapEx spend appears to have offset slightly positive OCF.*

BrainsNotBrawndo

* Booked a win on [$FL $42c March 17 bought 2 days ago, courtesy of an accidental fat finger](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbetsOGs/comments/11r3434/daily_discussion_thread_march_14_2023/jc6w59r/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) * Letting my $FL $43c March 24 ride * Props to u/FormerHandsomeGuy for Footlocker earnings heads up. Props to Bob Ross for how to make use of happy little accidents

spartikle

Same here in FL

cannasseurs

Sneak peek #2 of my FL OMMU visualization dashboard https://twitter.com/cannasseursio/status/1636208820388077574?s=20 Just finished the totals. Will be working on % sales per category for each company and some trends next. Hoping to launch the live dashboard web app by 4/20. GLTA longs!

wsb_moonshot

the FL blob

wsb_moonshot

Giant blob invades FL beaches. fr

Saaan

Funny 13F I found, Azora Capital out of Miami, FL with its Top 2 positions: \#1 XLF Puts \#2 SIVB – est average cost basis of $268.40 ​ At least they hedged. 

oldcaveboi

Wait till she goes to FL🥹

amitrele

Should people not be covered because they chose to do things that contain some risk? You live in FL - No hurricane insurance for your business or home You live in OK - no tornado assistance You smoke - no cancer coverage Your kid plays football. So sorry about that broken leg, kid. Here is a lollipop There is a reason why we backstop outcomes to make a better society and de risk from things. It’s fair to ask where we draw the line and who pays for it but we can’t say that the line doesn’t exist.

thevoidsquid

bruh its legal to shoot at someone for tailgating you in FL now lmfao

BrainsNotBrawndo

Bought some lottos for $FL 43c March 23 * Earnings March 20 * Shoutout to u/FormerHandsomeGuy * Mr Market, please don’t step on my shoes

thevoidsquid

I used to live in literal meth alley in FL I know what a dangerous neighborhood is like. A knife will probably level the playing field about as much as a gun and if you're getting mugged you really shouldnt fight the guy lmfao. But whatever man hopefully you dont shoot yourself or someone else by mistake.

Double-Tap9336

In my home town in FL quickie mart stores were very happy to trade your snap benefits for 40 to 50¢ on the dollar. Had the ghetto crowd lined up around the corner on benefits day.

International-Ad3147

Username checks out. All the boomers love FL.

Historical-Pattern-

FL is the greatest recession indicator of all! (besides inversion) I didn't include 1970s but as you can see, when men stop buying shoes, the market shits the bed. [https://ibb.co/BcxRwf3](https://ibb.co/BcxRwf3) [https://ibb.co/dgBj34p](https://ibb.co/dgBj34p) [https://ibb.co/yPrptD3](https://ibb.co/yPrptD3)

theta_eta_my_beta

I lost 50k on FL earnings a year ago. Good times

dinglebarrybonds

Yea there’s a reason so many people move here from NYC. 800k prob seems like a cheap house to everyone up there and you can actually get a really nice setup with that in FL, no state income tax either. And we have law and order for the most part

dinglebarrybonds

Yea FL, dry season is probably about over

brucekeller

I used to live in FL but the place sucked ass. I usually like winters but maybe I am weak this season.

WallStDegen

Beautiful morning here in FL, not a cloud in the sky about 75' got the whole apartment opened up blaring motley crew and slamming watermelon sangria while cooking some brekki for me and the pup & setting up the playbook for the week. Its the little things boys, I may not have it all but one day I prayed for all this.

-Right-Tackle-

It’s too hot in FL rn but should cool off next week 😎

jr1tn

But did they boycott the meanies in FL and GA?

germanator86

Its oklahoma. Not a huge loss. Its going to pass in FL for sure. (I hope)

Mattagascar

>Same poll shows that DeSantis would take FL vote in 2024 Presidential election I mean, ya, he won re-election by a landslide last year and it was obvious he was going to run for president then too. He's working to repeal Florida's "resign to run" law which would require him to resign when he declares. Once that's done, he will declare and Florida hillbillies will vote in droves for him. Plus, regardless of political affiliation, I think home states tend to vote for their "guy".

jac5617

The actual poll results can be seen here: [https://www.unfporl.org/uploads/1/4/4/5/144559024/unf\_mar\_statewide\_2023.pdf](https://www.unfporl.org/uploads/1/4/4/5/144559024/unf_mar_statewide_2023.pdf) Same poll shows that DeSantis would take FL vote in 2024 Presidential election

NextTrillion

Happened in FL a while back too. Not even enough signatures. Hopefully the next round will go better. $5mm doesn’t get much traction, but I don’t live there, so can’t say I know much about the state.

CannaVestments

While showing some improvements over Q3 and 2022 overall, overall struggles to achieve profitability remained for AYR in Q4. AYR did show some margin improvement ahead of expectations, but still elevated OpEx and a tight balance sheet continues to prevent cash flow generation while top-line growth fell short of both consensus and company guidance. AYR has made recent necessary pivots in Q1 (exiting their IL retail deal and selling AZ assets) to reduce liabilities and cash expenditure needs, smart moves imo as they focus on core states. More improvement will be needed in 2023 to prevent further asset sales and/or added debt/dilution. Comparisons to Q3: **Revenue:** Q2 $119.6MM to Q3 $124.6M *4.2% quarterly growth was short of consensus ($128M) and their previously provided 10% guidance. Growth was driven by 2 new FL stores where AYR has continued to expand market share, as well as the conversion of their Sommerville, Mass store to AU. AYR added 14 stores total in 2022. While positive to see AYR still growing the top-line overall, AYR fell well short of their 10% quarterly growth guidance in Q3 and Q4 (Q3 landed at 8.6% and Q4 at 4.2%)* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** Q3 $21.7M to Q4 $26.0M *19.8% increased was ahead of consensus ($24M), granted this figure had some fairly generous adjustments ($9.8M in one-time costs and $17.4M in SBC).* **Gross Margins:** Q3 41.4% to Q4 44.2% *Another quarter of improvement on GM profile- good to see in what was a tough pricing environment.* **Operating Income:** Q3 -$20.7M to Q4 -$176.2M *Drop here driven by a large $148.5M impairment taken in Q4. OI without the impairment in Q4 would have been -$27.7M, a drop from Q3 as OpEx grew faster than gross profit.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $70.2M to Q4 $231.4M *OpEx increase again largely stems from the impairment. Removing, OpEx would have been $82.8M so a step up from Q3. OpEx as a % of revenue (w/o impairment) increases from 58.7% in Q3 to 66.5%, a very high number relative to peers. SBC of $17.4M in particular looks far too high for a company of their size/performance.* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q3 $169k to Q4 $538k *Essentially flat here, as AYR again let taxes accrue further ($13.2M in Q4) for tax-adjusted OCF of -$12.7M. Full-year 2022 OCF was -$34.2M and tax-adjusted OCF was -$51.3M, an area that will need improvement in 2023.* **Cash:** Q3 $100.8M to Q4 $80.6M *Drop here as AYR spent $3.6M on CapEx ($62.5M in 2022 in full so clearly trending downward), and spent another $14M on paying down debt/lease liabilities. Debt sits at $443.8M and income tax payable at $46.0M. Note that AYR's exit of their IL dispensary deal and sale of AZ assets aren't reflected in the balance sheet yet, and should reduce certain outstanding liabilities.*

Okbutbushdid711

Its honestly pretty demoralizing Def get ahead of it as soon as you can. Im mostly applying in Phoenix, TN and FL and am having a hard time

Agitated-Savings-229

Interesting, where are these reports? I'm in FL and was considering one but the whole experience with Tesla made me change my mind.

moondawg8432

As I presumed. You really have no idea what you are talking about. Everything you said about florida is “outside looking in” legacy media propaganda. Desantis won freaking Miami dade and palm beach county in the last election. That’s the equivalent of a Republican winning NY and CA in a residential election. If you lived in FL and saw how free we were while the rest of the states were cowing under authoritarian Covid rule, you wouldn’t hold the positions you do nor would you try to claim desantis is an authoritarian. Feel free to have the last word. Again, have a good night fellow regard.

moondawg8432

The mental gymnastics here are quite impressive. Let me ask, do you live in either FL or CA?

moondawg8432

Whoa. Big fucking nuance you’re missing here buddy. FL says stay out of it, don’t play political games company or we will take away your political favors. CA says play my political games or we will punish you. Big nuance you are conveniently leaving out

yourpalbucket

When the owner of the Carolina Panthers moved from NJ to FL, it wiped $100 million from the tax gains for NJ. Not related but made me do a double take.

jac5617

Wow this would be terrible, is this for all FL ballot initiatives?

JubbieDruthers

I'm hoping for rec legalization in OH, PA, and FL by the next presidential election. Then some type of financial reform to help MSOs.

CannaVestments

Another challenged quarter to finish the year for Trulieve imo, with revenue and margins both coming in below consensus as price compression and stagnated growth in core markets offset overall retail expansion and initial entry into new markets. While Trulieve did exhibit better cash flow through inventory management and capacity optimization, price compression overall and continued right-sizing of assets presented challenges to results in the quarter. With 25 new stores opened in 2022 yet no top-line growth from 1 year ago, OpEx remains quite elevated relative to peers, ultimately limiting cash flow generation. Management guided to cash flow maximization in 23 through improved inventory/capacity management and operational efficiencies in core states, while taking advantage of new opportunities in GA/WV and AU sales in CT and MD later in the year. The ultimate driver for the company with the ballot initiative for AU sales in FL remains the top priority, with Trulieve putting continued time and money behind the effort. Comparisons to Q3: **Revenue:** Q3 $300.8M to Q4 $302.2M *0.5% quarterly growth was short of consensus ($306M), with FY revenue of $1.24B falling short of even the low end of their reduced guidance ($1.25-$1.3B). Note this figure was also short of the company's $305M in revenue 1 year ago, despite 5 new stores opened in Q4 and 25 stores opened in 2022 as a whole. Retail:wholesale split landed at 94:6. Management pointed to 15-20 new store openings in 2023 (and 6 relocations), with GA set to come online and MD to transition to AU in 2H23.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** Q3 $98.8M to Q4 $84.7M *14.3% consecutive decline was a big miss on consensus ($98M), with margin declining from 32.8% in Q3 to 28.0% in Q4 (their lowest mark in years). Management noted that inventory run-through and certain one-time costs recognized in Q4 brought this figure down, although margin compression and the costs of new stores no doubt a factor as well. As has been the case for most of 2022, this figure remains heavily adjusted- $36.6M in various "one-time" adjustments and SBC, not including the $10M they contributed to the FL AU campaign in Q4.* **Gross Margins:** Q3 55.9% to Q4 49.5% *Decline here to Trul's lowest GMs in years. Depletion of old inventory as they switch to higher utilization at their newer FL facility part of the decline here, in addition to market compression.* **Operating Income:** Q3 -$27.8M to Q3 -$6.3M *Improvement here driven by the lack of impairment taken in Q4 relative to Q3. Q3 OI w/o the impairment was +$24.3M, with the quarterly decline driven by lower gross profit and higher OpEx in Q4.* **Operating Expenses:** Q3 $195.8M to Q4 $155.9M *Drop again stems from the aforementioned impairment not present in Q4. OpEx w/o the impairment would have been $143.8M in Q3, with OpEx as % of revenue then rising from 47.8% in Q3 to 51.6% in Q4 (a very high figure relative to peers)* **Operational Cash Flow:** Q3 -$21.6M to Q4 $55.0M *Big step up largely driven by tax payment timing as Trul had their Q4 tax payment delayed by the hurricane to finish the year at $23.1M in OCF, although still showed an improvement over Q3 and 2022 as a whole. Tax-adjusted OCF was $10.6M in Q4, and $3.3M for 2022. EBIDTA to CF conversion a big struggle here, with $400M in 2022 adj EBIDTA translating to just $3.3M in tax-adjusted OCF. Management pointed to a 2023 goal of $100M in OCF inclusive of tax payments.* **Cash:** Q3 $114.5 to Q4 $212.3M *Big jump in cash to shore up the balance sheet, as positive cash flow and $90M in new notes offset $34M in Q4 CapEx. 2022 finished the year with $165M in total CapEx spend, as management guided to a 50% reduction in this figure in 2023.*

cannasseurs

As long as they can make it to 2025 when FL turns rec it will all have been worth it. Most debt not due til 2024 so they have time to get cash flow positive and have some negotiating leverage to refi or extend debt.

SufficientTowers

Hmm? Not sure what argument you're making here. The top four biggest states by population are CA (39 mil), TX (30 mil), FL (22 mil) and NY (19 mil). Both CA and NY are in the top 4 most population lost. FL and TX are literally #1 and #2 for most gained. Nothing you're saying makes any sense.

BrainsNotBrawndo

+9% for Dick’s despite an overall red day, nice. Have some of the FL lottos, fingers crossed

Jake-n-Bake1620

Yeah Uber eats offers me on average 3-5$ for a 27 minute delivery. So idk if its just total dogshit in FL but they average out to less than 10$/hr unless I drive an hour away to a bigger city for a promotion they are running. Even then it's not even 15$/hr which is where minimum wage is going to be in a couple years.

cannasseurs

Soon! I’m working on a FL dashboard that will display key metrics and FL OMMU data. Was able to extract 2+ years of data, clean it and store it in a database. Now the fun begins! Dashboard and charts coming soon! https://twitter.com/cannasseursio/status/1632779715084681228?s=46&t=NJUI5NkByhJWO-kp0jGhDg

greenskew

Glad to see you got a good start to the week. Was bullish today and got castrated. They don't know I eat a gator once in FL I will grow it back. Happy hunting tomorrow.

drzander50x

Yep! I had a Reno truck last week, 150 mi from Sacramento and rates to GA/FL were $4,000. LA rates are better but negligible. I believe pre-covid backhaul rates were around $.90/mi? I wasn't in it too much before then so maybe you can clarify if that's true or not? I know different areas different rates.

benji3k

I've been on and off at a brokerage for 9 years so I understand what you are saying . From CA to FL we went for $6500 in 2019 to $10k sometimes 12k occasionally after everything.

lipmanz

Moving to FL eventually, where should I look?

dinglebarrybonds

Knew someone in south FL that had a vacation condo and then they had some large upgrade bill for like 30k per condo so they just sold it

deckone

It already seems to be here in FL.

hwzig03

They’ve been losing the market share, when I first found weed stocks in summer of 21, TRUL did > 50% of all flower, most recent number is 39%. They are losing market share and new licensing is being issued in FL. These companies propped by limited licensing are going to fail.

cannasseurs

Basically, if the judicial and financial review comes back fine, Adult Use will be on the ballot in 2024, and in that case is 99% guaranteed to pass in November, meaning FL sales will increase 5x very quickly as we enter Q1 2025. FL is about half the population of CA and also has about half the tourists visits per year compared to CA. FL is the 2nd most tourist visited state after CA. Now imagine a company like Trulieve, which has 35-40% of the current market in the entire state of FL. If adult use passes in FL, Trulieve is going to $100 as long as it maintains 1/3 of the FL market share.

Fuego1050

Pablo Investor Note on Trulieve: INVESTMENT SUMMARY: Investment Summary: We stay Overweight and expect a 4Q beat, but lower our 12-month price target to $41 from $51 on sectoral derating. We attach our updated estimates ahead of next week's 4Q22 call. CY22 sales guidance implies 4Q22 sales of $311Mn vs. FactSet consensus of $306Mn. From a purely trading stance, we see risks to the upside (a rarity in the current earnings season). According to OMMU data, Trulieve blended volumes were up +11% in 4Q seq after -5% in 3Q (impact of hurricanes; 3Q volumes for the state were also down, partly due to reg changes); 4Q is more promotional than 3Q, so we assume price/mix in 4Q was negative in FL. We estimate FL accounts for >60% of company sales. Arizona's (where the company has 20 stores vs. 19 in PA; we estimate AZ sales per store 2x PA given AZ is a rec market) total market sales, as per Headset, were up 2% seq in 4Q, and Trulieve opened its 20th store there in early Oct. We estimate AZ is about 20% of company sales. PA (>10% of sales, we say) is harder to call given the lack of data. Outside retail, the company's main net wholesale markets are MD and MA (PA wholesale has dropped, as MSO retailers there increased verticality; in AZ, Trulieve has minimal wholesale). In short, we believe a beat is likely; we model ~$314Mn in sales. Right, not a significant beat, but a decent beat given the context. In terms of the year ahead (a "grind" year, as per most operators), we understand the focus is on efficiencies and cash flows. We believe the next big catalyst for the stock is the momentum on rec making it to the 2024 ballot (enough signatures have already been gathered, and now the state's supreme court has to opine. In the Appendix, we show notes from our recent call with the CEO of DoMJ (Private), the largest MMJ clinics network in FL. Note 1: in our MSO coverage, next week only Trulieve and AYR (AYRWF/N) (see report) report 4Q results. See here for 4Q state trends. Valuation and price target. Recent sector volatility (besides trading technicals and low liquidity) makes price targets and valuation multiple discussions less relevant, in our view. That said, we note Trulieve shares are down 56% in the last three months vs. -48% for the MSOS ETF. The combination of a 4Q beat and positive momentum on having rec in the Nov ballot could help the stock outperform in the month ahead, in our view. The stock now trades at 4.2x our CY24E EBITDA estimates vs. 4.4x for the group average (it is at 4.5x CY23E vs. 7.7x for the group average; the latter is distorted by profitability challenges for a few operators). Regarding our 12-month price target, we take a 30% premium on the MSO average EBITDA multiple (on our CY24 estimates) to account for the company's franchise, and to this we add rec optionality (beyond 2025E) with a 70% probability. Our approach yields a $41 price target vs. $51 before (owing to

WallStDegen

I cant think of the term for it but here in FL, it's so controlled right now. Equivalent to price gouging but occurs in specific quadrants like section 8 etc. . Fuck its gonna drive me nuts

hookisacrankycrook

My God the documentary American Pain...FL messed up so badly there.

burndata

FL voted for medical a few years back and the legislators stepped in and added all kinds of ifs and buts and delays despite not being what the public voted for. Even when they vote to fully legalize it DeSantis and his bought legislators will blatantly break the law and not follow though on implementing it until they can figure out how to personally profit from, use it to somehow gain more power and fight the "woke". And no one will do anything about it. Fuck every last one of them.

cannasseurs

We are close man. 280E and uplifting alone would 3-5x the stock prices. Then you have big states like FL going rec and TX eventually. There’s still so many untapped markets. The feds need to legalize. It’s a matter of time. If you bought at 3-5x these prices you should be DCAing at this time. You either believe in this sector or you blindly invested without understanding the risks.

HandsomeChubaka

Didn’t the FL SC shoot down adult use within the past year or so? I just can’t see a state led by DeAsshat letting adult use pass. I mean they just had a GOP representative introduce a bill to outlaw the Democratic party.

cannasseurs

yep, FL is 2nd biggest red state by population, behind TX. This could really push the envelope for red states to turn to rec as a lot of the republicans vacation in FL. FL has 130M annual visitors, adult use sales will be insane!

cannasseurs

Really need that FL supreme court review of the ballot initiative to come back as a GO. Ballot signatures are at 47% already, with 10-11 months to go until final submission. https://twitter.com/cannasseursio/status/1631057593127903233?s=20 Assuming the review doesn't shaft the ballot initiative, we're pretty much set to see FL go rec in Q1 2025 after Nov 2024 election. FL new stores are ramping up as the operators see adult use finally becoming a reality. We're talking a massive bump in sales to the tune of billions of dollars. Trulieve is currently positioned to capture 40% of that revenue based on their current market share.

nevsamp

FL courts use zoom

cannasseurs

The stock prices are so detached from fundamentals. Once FL goes rec and 280E is gone this sector will rip thru earths butthole and head straight for Mars. As warren buffet says “buy when others are fearful, sell when they are greedy”

CoincadeFL

For 2022 yellow line shows about 5-10% are institutions (aka corporations and small LLCs buying rentals). The other 90% cash buyers are likely 2nd home purchasers moving from high end places like Cali and NY to low end places like TX and FL. Some yes are boomers, but a lot of Millennials too who have families and turned a $800K 2 bed home in NY to a $400-600K 3-4 bed home in FL or TX. In other words they cashed out their equity up north or out west and moved down south cash money all the way.

Not_a_good_thinker

My father bought his home in cash…specifically he sold his old home, rented for a year, and bought a new home. CT to FL. At the same token, 126 houses in my area of NY have been purchased in the last 2 years as corps. Most of them are back on the market now, either with another $200k+ tacked on, or as rentals/airbnb

Mammoth-Ad8348

Good for them. Keep cranking for a few years and move somewhere like FL and they’re done.

Fantastic_Door_4300

[fox news derailment in FL](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fox13news.com/news/train-derails-in-bradenton.amp)

CannaVestments

For sure that’s fair. I would point out that the cash flow discrepancy I am referring to is “operational cash flow” specifically where GTI landed at $159M for the year. Trulieve was essentially flat OCF through Q3. OCF doesn’t include CapEx spend so a pullback there wouldn’t be relative. Trul would need to show a CF improvement in their actual current operations (which I do expect- they reduced capacity at their main FL cultivation facility and had a number of layoffs which will all help)

cannasseurs

Next 2 earnings periods should give us more insight. It looks like they are moving up in the FL market so hopefully they can be FCF positive soon

DonnieDangerStreet

The CEO/Founder has ZERO experience in anything automotive other than his hot wheel collection. He had 5 other bankrupted penny stock scams before MULN. "THEIR" van is a rebranded vehicle made in China. The $500 million dollar order is from a pot shop investor in south FL who happens to be a large shareholder in MULN. IT'S A SCAM!!!!!!