HBM

accountforfurrystuf

I would definitely like to see names like Nvidia, TSMC, Intel, AMD decouple from the crazy DRAM trades at least. The algorithms treat them all the same, when a company like Intel doesn’t make DDR/GDDR/HBM

MarginCalledMom

Weren’t they saying the same about NVDA and GPUs a few years ago? That it’s cyclical? Not saying this time is different, as those are always the famous last words, but I don’t see HBM and memory letting up from a demand point of view unless the whole AI trade/build out goes bust.

MaximumDiscipline843

Samsung/SK Hynix selling off ahead of US earnings is a real signal, but worth separating two different things that are getting conflated: memory pricing weakness (company-specific, HBM oversupply concerns) versus a broader "AI rally is cracking" read-through to unrelated names. Korea's chip names have their own supply/demand dynamics that don't necessarily transfer 1:1 to, say, hyperscaler cloud revenue. If US big tech earnings this week show cloud/AI revenue deceleration specifically, that confirms the read-through. If they don't, this was a Korea-specific wobble that got over-extrapolated.

Own-Recipe5908

Sounds like something a know nothing analyst would say after finding out HBM exists and thinking its some unknown or new tech.

CEOofBeanz

Lesson of the day: HBM brings the AI data GPUs need quickly, closer to the GPU

WickOfDeath

The demand outpaces the supply for at least two years in literally all classes of memory. Flash for sticks, reliable flash for smartphone and tablet internal storage, for SD cards, for SSD and NVME, last but not least specialized memory like HBM and RAMBUS (which points into the same direction, RAMBUS provides circuitry for connecting HBM to NPUs). . But simple demand/supply patterns dont move stocks, it's the long term outlook, and especially US stocks dont pay you lot of dividends, the 50 pennies from ORacle? A joke, Nvidia did even better, $0.10 as dividend. They are ment to rise forever, and when some new facts are on the tablet which can disrupt this eternal growth story traders just get out. That can let a stock drop 50% even if the fundamentals of the stock issuer dont change.

goguemah

SKHY been working on HBM for a while. They have a longer lasting relationship. Yes their product is good. But MU is a strategic asset to the US. In this macro, that’s a moat that SKHY cannot get. They wish

nordik1

literally has zero impact on US AI industry. they’re still so far behind in terms of implementation and HBM supply + there will be sanctions by the US

Samjabr

He needs HBM4

ng_logic

308x earnings for a cyclical memory play two generations behind on HBM, with yield issues and an entity list sword hanging over it. That multiple isn't pricing DRAM - it's pricing a policy directive. The 244x retail oversub sounds insane until you realize that's actually low for STAR IPOs; most chip listings hit 3,000x. They screened retail out pretty hard here, which means this was an institutional trade dressed up as a national project. Debut tape is gonna be ugly if the sector keeps giving back gains the day after it prints them.

Upstairs_Whole_580

What'd you buy at? I told my Uncle to get in at 500... and then wait and buy SKHY at in anither quarter when Rubin starts shipping(that's when SKHY has the ability to raise the price on HBM). He bought 2,000 shares at 980 and then bought SKHY at 170 on the day of the ADP... Now he's asking when it'll go up... and I have to tell him when Rubin is fully rampin, then I think SKHY could go to 300 and MU could go to 1500 or higher... He didn't listen.

HAL-_-9001

They are are not producing HBM at mass scale atm. It's more the testing/sampling phase. Many at not forecasting a comeptitive yield until 2028. It's not a non issue atm and this is key, since HBM is the main growth and margin component for Micron. Of course the memory is not just HBM but even then, CXMT are not going to be a "Big threat" because I think you're underestimating the overall demand/supply dynamics atm.

SadComparison9352

china is still 2-3 years behind Dram, and many years behind HBM-1 not even HBM-4

zeey1

No, the product is different You cant compare DDR to HBM simply yow different products and two different markets same way you cant compare gaming GPU to AI chip Or subscription software to once time software

OilAny787

Fair to say "Eventually it goes down", is worthless on its own. The actual claim im making is that most bull cases I see aren't just pricing the 2026–28 shortage, they're seeing tightness past 2029, and that's where I think they break. The current cycle is supply determined, not demand determined, Micron's fab 1 hits volume mid 2027, fab 2 end 2028, Hiroshima 2028, plus SK hynix and Yongin and Samsung all landing in the same window. 20–30% of industry capacity arriving essentially at the same time, into a demand curve that only holds up if HBM keeps compounding 40%+. Also CXMT taking commodity DRAM share. I'm not claiming timing this is straightforward, it isn't what's so ever and probably one of the harder tasks to face. Peak pricing usually arrives before peak earnings and the stock tops well before any of it shows in the numbers. The useful part is knowing which assumption you're actually underwriting and when to enter + exit. Im still doing further work into them, for me personally I see an opportunity to long into this shorter term decline maybe in the range of 600-700, Shorts will be on the radar further into 2027. This is just how im playing it, not saying im right or wrong, I could have this completely wrong for all I know. I won't be sizing this very large, maybe in the range of 2-5%.

puthre

Their product (HBM) powers a new expanding product: Intelligence. Not sure why do you think any of the previous cycles where their product was mostly for gaming apply here, they don't have much in common.

SadComparison9352

Us semiconductors are still the most advanced: HBM, optics, GPUs, so Us AI infra is the best

avilacjf

You seem to have a very strong grasp on this and I think we really mostly agree. The main difference is that I see the ROI of AI going up over time and broadening to AVs and robots, and 24/7 personal agents, and new devices/companies that don't exist yet. I've been following AI for a long time now (at least since AlphaGO but loosely before that) and in my view the current AI capital investment is 90% about improving capabilities and 10% about serving the current technology. They're aiming for capabiltiies to pass certain thresholds and with Opus 4.5 in Claude Code they found the first nugget of gold. From now on the quality and utility of these models will continue to grow but each step will now be genuinely value generating. Not just experimental/theoretical capability expansion. Your thesis might be that AI can't justify this level of spend but the fundamental difference here is that the compute is turned inward to improve capabilities and increase the value of the compute itself view inference demand. It's the only technology that can be used to improve its own output (better models) and then be flexible enough to also serve the product/service for ROI (inference). If there is anything to learn from the SpaceX and Anthropic and Google deals is that there is a massive willingness to pay for compute and we're only just entering the era where enterprises are willing to open their wallets for this. We have many more years for the technology to continue to mature. Like I said, 24/7 agents, AVs, and robots, are in the 1-5 year horizon, and each can increment demand by another factor. I'm not sure if 20% bit shipment supply expansion can sufficiently cover that. If I'm being really really honest, I don't know if current methods for building fabs can really catch up to the rate of AI model capability and demand expansion but I'm not trying to be reckless here. Worst case scenario the new "bottom" of this cycle is substantially higher as the replacement for all HBM, DRAM, and NAND will be much more robust with all these incremental datacenters in the US and around the world.

nordik1

micron stopped producing ram for consumers to focus on HBM too

Routine-District-588

But 75% of the revenue is not HBM it's DRAM. If for some reason in the 2 years to come the Koreans or China flood the market with cheap DRAM the gross margins will collapse. Long term contracts of micron are only 20% of the volume and they still at a far lower grade of gross margins from what you get today.

SST114

Also the idea that other co's can just invest and create HBM fast is funny lol It'd take them like 10 yrs to get this rolling and they aren't going to spend on that in trial and error when they can just buy from the monopolies and develop other things. Feels like all bear cases lack understanding of the tech is the problem. It's why they were sounding the alarm at 400-500 as "the top" and then it shot to 1200 in a few months.

Beneficial-Chair-333

They do make HBM memory for datacenters., though it's defect rate is more than MU. While valuing companies we can't just do it only based on datacenter memory. MU makes memory for all kinds of applications. Actually other memory applications are more long term and sustainable than datacenter memory. So, CMXT could be big threat if they could capture even that applications while MU is busy in datacenter temporarily. Regarding petition to ban Chinese memory. Similar happened during GPU ban, but ultimately it was lifted due to need of rare earth elements which only china has and nvidia recently sent GPU shipment.

SST114

Great reply. While I give OP credit for not stating that it's peaked already and etc and acknowledging this could go on for longer-- since comparisons to past memory booms and busts directly are really ignoring the obv as you have noted-- the amount of stuff coming online is just so immense that will need memory we're really actually speculating to the bearish side on demand being met. The can keeps getting kicked farther because demand is accelerating. And demand starting to be met in say a few yrs doesn't mean an over supply and cheap HBM, it just means the shortage is being alleviated... so that could mean sustained higher profits than now that eventually flatline but don't crater-- in which case MU is still super cheap.

OriginallyDG

The clearest way to see it: the actual numbers didn’t deteriorate. Micron reported $41.46 billion in Q3 revenue with \~85% gross margin, its HBM capacity is booked through fiscal 2026, and those numbers didn’t change. What changed was the market’s willingness to keep paying up. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained roughly 65% in six months and SanDisk was up 858%. Returns that create a valuation overhang where even a small disappointment triggers a violent repricing. When something is priced for perfection, “no longer perfect” is enough to sell.

Significant-Drawer95

Im full port in SK Hynix.. Love CEO and ther HBM leadership but korean market pisses me off

avilacjf

So you're telling me Google is getting into the memory fab business? What's the timeline for those clean rooms and EUV machines with the current backlog? Are they poaching talent and starting from zero or attempting an acquisition/merger? If this was their plan all along why do they still rely on Broadcom and TSMC for design and fabrication on TPUs? If this is a proxy we have 10 years before Google ramps up in-house HBM supply. AI has gone from barely stringing together a sensible conversation to outclassing many programmers, doctors, and mathematicians in ~4 years. Don't you think there's more value to be realized 4 more years from now considering the historic investment ($800B in one year!) in data centers precisely to make the technology more performant? Seems weird to think they won't at least make a few big leaps leveraging all those data centers. Your current use case is not really representative. Maybe look at Anthropic's ARR since November and consider that some genuinely useful use-cases are beginning to be unlocked and the model progress is faster than ever! Gemini 3.1 looks ancient now and it's only 5 months old. GPT 6 will be released around September and will probably bring OpenClaw for everyone with continous agents for the masses. Coding just keeps getting better, generative video is already flooding media platforms and raking in engagement (like it or not). It seems like the cyber security use case on its own is serious enough that large enterprises are entering an era of continous cyber cat-and-mouse games with ever better AI models every few months. I reckon JP Morgan will be working up a pretty fat inference bill updating all these systems quarterly from now on.

Glass_Number_1707

Gotta get through earnings season. I think things will move forward after the smoke clears. Cap X spending will continue and everything will follow. China putting out crap chips has everyone nervous. With memory no one new company can make HBM5 for another 3-5 years but people still panic. Market is skitsoid. Millions of cars and robots will need memory. Market is worried about threats that are not even a reality yet. 🤷🏻‍♀️

HAL-_-9001

CXMT can't even fill domestic demand let alone overseas demand. US lawmakers have also petitioned the govt to ban Chinese memory, which I think is highly likely. Even then they do not even make HBM memory for AI data centres.

Sirkiw1

Buying in June caught the cyclical peak right before a sector rotation. Semis and memory are textbook cyclical assets. That 9 week rally aggressively front ran years of future growth as institutional momentum gave way to late stage retail FOMO at the top. A 1,000x growth in stock prices is simply unsustainable. In my opinion, a correction is actually healthy for this sector. NVDA consolidating sideways allows earnings to catch up and compress forward multiples to sustainable levels. Could we see a full recovery to June highs by EOY? It’s possible, but a sustained trend reversal won't happen until upcoming earnings fundamentally prove that capex is actually driving real AI monetization. While I agree that demand remains insatiable, the real elephant in the room is supply execution, specifically acute bottlenecks in HBM, advanced packaging and power grid capacity.

Catinus

if you are talking about cxmt, their tech isnt good enough for HBM so they are making ddr4/ddr5 right now, which does releases a bit of preassure of of consumer ram but that does nothing to all the enterprise stuff which is the main income rn.

Remote-Community-792

I have been using Gemini for thesis and looking back it has accurately predicted a lot of things. If I had followed it's advice, I would be a rich man today. Anyways, this is the answer from my AI companion Can It Go Back Up? (The Recovery Narrative) **Yes, absolutely.** Memory cycles always turn back around, and the fundamental catalyst hasn't changed: **High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and AI.** Every single AI model, advanced graphics card, and autonomous vehicle requires immense amounts of memory to process data. Nvidia's advanced AI chips are entirely useless without the high-speed DRAM stacked next to them. * **Supply Discipline:** When prices fall too low, companies like Micron and SK Hynix intentionally cut back production. They slow down their factories to reduce the supply of chips on the market. Once the excess inventory clears out and demand ticks back up, chip prices skyrocket again, driving the ETF back up. * **The Next Leg Up:** As AI technology moves from massive corporate data centers down into consumer devices (AI-powered smartphones, laptops, and local hardware updates), it will trigger a massive hardware replacement cycle. This represents the next major structural demand wave for memory.

avilacjf

Idk how several years could be priced in if the forward PE is at 7 and forward EV/EBITDA is at 4.7. What they're pricing is that there will be no growth in '27+ that's the only way you can arrive at a PE that low on a company with 85%+ margins and 345% YoY growth. What alternatives do you really see to HBM or LPDDR5 for next gen accelerators? These fabs take billions and years to build. It's not like some crypto firm can pivot into memory fabrication. I know people are panicking about CXMT like they didn't exist 6 months ago but they've been around this whole time and the shortage already includes their capacity. I would trust the CEOs of SK Hynix and Micron on this one, shortage conditions at least until 2030. Micron has been more conservative saying it will continue *through* 2027. Those aren't contradictory. Nvidia's Rubin Ultra chips are growing memory demand by 4x per chip and bit growth is only growing \~20% in '27 and '28. Google's million TPU Anthropic deal and what Broadcom is forecasting are also massive demand spikes. Google has said they want to double their GPU capacity every years through 2030. That's before OpenAI and Anthropic ramp production of their own in-house chips later in the decade. You have to look at the underlying demand and project that to really see if supply can catch up. This is all hinging on that demand and I see these as pretty clear signals.

english_fool

This is nothing to do with Chinese language models, the data centres don’t exist so they don’t need a shit ton of HBM

Funny-Sprinkles-5674

[Breaking: NVDA signs 14 billion dollar deal with Micron tu supply HBM memory through 2030](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ)

2dudesinapod

I think you’re confused. I’m assuming you’re talking about OpenAI but they aren’t buying HBM from micron they’re buying from the Koreans.

tryexceptifnot1try

The HBM4 buyers are already using debt and equity to raise money with less takers in each round. Where's this money going to come from? Why would this time be different from 2000 it at least 2021? Why in Nvidia issuing debt as the most profitable company in the world? That thesis is weak

SpicyElixer

I’m bullish on China and slightly bearish / skeptical on DRAM, but China isn’t putting out HBM3 volume reliably in 2027.

2dudesinapod

Cyclicals trade down when there is over supply, there is no over supply for HBM4. Demand won’t be satisfied for several years at least.

2dudesinapod

Apple does not put HBM in phones. CXMT is not a direct competitor with Micron for the only thing that matters which is HBM. They’re irrelevant to the Micron bull case.

2dudesinapod

CXMT does not make HBM.

Lundhlol

Their offerings are way below the counter parts as well. It's temu ram, not to mention their HBM offerings are basically trashcan level. I don't see this as a threat in the near term.

karlelzz011

Think about it where do you wanna run all these models? GPUs and HBM DRAM!

spez_eats_nazi_ass

And poised to take over when the hyper scale ai thing dies and the memory cartel is stuck with piles of unwanted HBM memory. M7 will do local models that are actually useful just fine.

english_fool

It doesn’t matter if a Chinese language model is cheaper, language models cannot do the things everyone seems to think they can, it’s all bollocks. A fuck ton of HBM is gonna end up in a scrap pile (or maybe we will get some awesome consumer grade GPUs if they can somehow repurpose it?)

ap1618

Memory expansion is happening at this moment,SKHY planned expansions based on assumed HBM demand three years ago and nailed it

angelenergyinme

If the AI trade lasts longer than people expect memory might end up being one of the biggest bottlenecks everyone wants more compute but nobody talks about what happens when HBM supply cant keep up

Still_Eggplant_7288

It will take over a year for HBM producers to meet demand. This is sum type of institutional sell off which is also causing the retail investors to panic and sell.

plugwalls

DDR5: +10-15% DRAM: +7% HBM: sold out, can’t make it fast enough Earnings growth: triple digits Micron -33% 🫪🫪🫪🫪🫪

Own-Recipe5908

Eh, I had gotten out of SOXL (Only a little at the top mostly just for pretty good gains, not insane) and almost entirely out of AMD in April-May and missed the hyperbolic move in the memory names, so I didn't want to touch it. As for my thoughts on the sector? Problem with memory is there are a lot of other firms with the know-how to make DDR5/4 HBM 1-3, margins the way they are its only a matter of time before the memory triopoly is broken. I mean, China's already gotten into the game. And, I kept enough track of the semi space even before AI to know that memory margins are normally shit because of the mid-tech of making it. Not to say that the margins can't keep up for a year or two, but if you assume there's a risk of memory margins coming down next year or the year after, you should start selling in 6 months. Which obviously means in order to counteract people thinking the same you should sell in 3... etc. Anyway, ramble but that was what is on my mind when I see the memory stocks that already ran.

mr_malifica

Except the cycle is different now. HBM4 and HBM4E are not just a stick of RAM, and DDR6 is in the pipeline for 2027/28. Everyone is sold out through 2027 and contract pricing is in place through 2028. You could make the argument that SSD and NAND are still very cyclical, and I'd agree. But everyone said NVDA was cyclical... until it wasn't.

zmagickz

I can't speak to HBM but I don't really think chinese ai models are a threat to hyperscalers in terms of cloud ran ai, companies truly don't want to feed data into chinese companies in terms of running cheap open source models locally, we still always have the debates on running servers on prem or in the cloud. Many companies just stick to cloud because dynamic scaling is a lot more predictable with costs rather than committing to their own hardware, anything I'm missing? Whatever cost savings there are for local llm's hyper scalers will be able to do that too, just like they've done with aws/gcp/azure etc

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

We need more data centers. More data centers = need to buy more Nvidia GPUs, Micron HBM, SanDisk SSD, cables, wires, etc.

Bill_Clintons_Desk5

HBM, CPU, NAND, HDD, Cloud, the machines that make it all, the companies that design it all, the people who buy it, the people who sell it, the people who use it. It’s all dead. AI is over everyone. Pack it up. Claude and Chat shut down tonight use it while you still can. The robots are never coming.

spacecake12

Memory has always been a cycle until lately and wallstreet is looking for any reason to claim the downturn of the cycle is back and dump memory 20% any time any news comes out. Today it is CXMT Shanghai IPO raising $8B that it seen as direct competition. The issue is that it's not like flipping a switch, CXMT is behind on HBM - they don't mass-produce any HBM at all unlike the top 3 memory producers (Hynix/Samsung/Micron) which is where the big margins seems like it will be in the future.

FuckTheWallStCunts

SIVEF is being hit by two things at once: a sector-wide AI chip correction and a Sivers-specific capital raise. Today’s drop to $3.52 does not appear to be simply a case of insiders dumping shares. More likely, the market is repricing the company for a more dilutive and higher-risk growth path. [**What Actually Happened**]() [**Sector-wide semiconductor and AI pullback**]() The broader semiconductor and AI complex has been under heavy pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is down meaningfully from its June high and is on track for one of its worst months in several years after a massive first-half rally. Several forces appear to be driving the weakness: ·         Broad profit-taking after a powerful run in chip stocks. ·         Large ETF outflows from semiconductor-focused funds. ·         Rising short interest across the group. ·         New concerns that Big Tech may have overbuilt AI capacity. ·         Headlines about HBM and DRAM demand slowing. ·         Growing warnings that parts of the chip complex had entered bubble territory. As a result, part of SIVEF's decline is simply the result of the entire sector moving lower. [**Sivers-specific capital raise and dilution**]() On June 30, 2026, Sivers announced a directed share issue of approximately SEK 700 million. Relative to the company's prior equity base, this was a large raise and it directly diluted existing shareholders. The timing mattered. After a strong rally and while preparing for a Nasdaq-related process, the company chose to raise capital at a moment when the stock had been trading at much richer levels. The market often punishes small-cap growth companies after a raise of this size because it reduces per-share upside and signals a need for additional capital to support growth. The move from roughly $7 to the mid-$3 range is consistent with a combination of sector correction and major dilution. [**Lockup and insider selling concerns**]() At the time of review, there was no clear public evidence of a large insider dump driving the decline. It is possible that some early holders or strategic investors took liquidity after the financing, but the main documented pressure appears to be the combination of the capital raise and the broader semiconductor selloff. The more accurate framing is not that insiders necessarily abandoned the stock, but that SIVEF is behaving like a small-cap growth name undergoing dilution in the middle of a sector-wide correction. [**What’s Going On Under the Hood**]() [**1. Sector-wide chip and AI correction**]() Semiconductor and AI-related stocks have gone through one of their sharpest pullbacks of 2026. After an exceptionally strong first half, investors began taking profits and questioning whether AI capital spending had moved too far, too fast. Many memory and AI-related names fell sharply within a matter of days. In that environment, SIVEF is not being singled out. It is trading as part of a weak and highly volatile semiconductor group. [**2. Sivers’ 700M SEK raise and dilution**]() Sivers upsized its directed share issue to approximately 700 million SEK, adding roughly 12.3 million new shares at a discount to the prior close. That was a substantial dilutive event. The immediate implications were straightforward: ·         The stock dropped on the announcement. ·         The company’s earlier peak valuation was reset lower. ·         Existing shareholders now own a smaller percentage of the future upside. ·         The stock began trading more like a recapitalized growth story than a momentum leader. This is the primary company-specific reason the stock fell so hard on top of the general chip selloff. [**3. Lockup and insider activity**]() There was a lockup tied to the April placement and the June raise. Certain senior insiders, including executive leadership and board members, were restricted from selling until July 16, 2026. That point is important because it means most of the move into the mid-$3 range happened before those insiders were free to sell. In other words, the decline itself was not proof of insider liquidation. There were also reports of insider buying in early July, including purchases by the CEO and several board members. That does not eliminate risk, but it does weaken the idea that the selloff was caused primarily by insiders rushing for the exits. The market is likely reacting not only to the dilution and sector weakness, but also to the possibility that the lockup expiration creates a fresh overhang. [**Bottom Line**]() SIVEF appears to be under pressure for three main reasons: ·         A broad semiconductor and AI stock correction. ·         A large and dilutive capital raise by Sivers. ·         Market anxiety around a fresh insider selling window following lockup expiration. The available information does not strongly support the idea that the move to the mid-$3s was caused mainly by confirmed insider dumping. A better interpretation is that the stock is being repriced as a more speculative, more diluted growth story in the middle of a weak sector backdrop.

Legendary-Lemon

but listen to me bro, MU is so cheap, I swear, HBM bro, even your mum will need those juicy high bandwidth memory chips. I cannot hear you now: MUu, MUUUUUUuuuu, MUUUUUUUUUUU. 🐮

JuicyJohnny69

I just told you the multiples are even cheaper than the other times... and SK especially is known as the king of HBM which is a new kind of memory that isn't seen as a commodity the same way DRAM is

JuicyJohnny69

We are guiding for 20% growth next quarter and we always beat guidance. We dropped 10% on Samsung having most profitable quarter ever because their mobile division skewed their operating margins. The less-commoditized HBM narrative seems to have had a negative effect on our earnings multiples. Also our long term strategic customer agreements seem to have no effect either. Surely this is the peak... (we are ignoring so many things just because the amount of growth is scary)

JuicyJohnny69

SK is trading at multiples cheaper than what they peak at historically while still guiding for growth. You would think that HBM would have even a 10% rerating effect on their multiples...

diff_engine

The AGI machine god will remember you said this using its 10 trillion dollars of HBM and mock you personally

OptionsHuduga

Yeah I’m fukked on it. The mistake is that people lump it in with Sandisk and micron cuz it moves with them but it’s a different business offering and isn’t HBM.

x7_omega

Not bullshit. Korean stock market formally entered bear market (whatever formally means), but technically they have just dropped below 50ema, bounced hard, and today dropped again. That makes for a confirmed breakdown, which is what is shown below. Kioxia (Japanese flash memory maker) and Samsung (HBM and DDR maker) are also deep in red today. That is bear market, if younger casino clients need help with terminology: that means down it goes day after day, with occasional huge green bar that gives bears heart attack for a day or so, then red bars again. https://preview.redd.it/htq93tvdtidh1.png?width=1712&format=png&auto=webp&s=0dca451dea89ce1a5a0f8e0e72119513f60141d4

OldWonder5865

Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of KOSPI, I will fear no sell-off, for HBM demand is with me; your Samsung and your SK Hynix, they can’t margin-call me

ChreeKnowsBest

CXMT does not produce HBM4 and is several generations behind in HBM technology, which is Micron’s most profitable revenue source and the distinguishable factor Micron is using to establish their price floor and eliminate the cyclical nature that once existed in the memory space.

ChreeKnowsBest

MM’s will push MU just below the neckline of the head & shoulders pattern so all retail that is scared will exit, and in typical fashion will push the price up 7-15% per day to new highs when they feel the appropriate bottom has been reached, leaving you wondering what just happened. You can use the March-May price action as a reference. 311 at the bottom and pushing ATH’s @ 545 exactly a month later. 75% increase. Mind you that uptrend continued until last month at 1254. Same thing will happen in this go around, percentages won’t be exact, but the shakeout is in effect again, and the end result will be virtually the same. There hasn’t been a single bearish piece of information released that has discredited the financial thesis on HBM4 or Micron’s current profit/revenue projections and forward guidance. DYOD.

Educational_Salt7147

Prediction: SK Hynix Will Become the Next Nvidia Motley Fool - Wed Jul 15, 9:43AM CDT Key Points SK Hynix's dominance of the fast-growing HBM market should ensure terrific long-term growth for the company. The Korean memory giant's phenomenal earnings growth and valuation suggest that it could skyrocket over the long run. 10 stocks we like better than SK Hynix › Nvidia has played a pioneering role in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) over the past four years. The company's graphics processing units (GPUs) have been deployed to train popular large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, and it remains the top seller of AI chips by market share. The semiconductor bellwether controls more than 80% of the AI chip market. However, Nvidia stock has underperformed the broader market in 2026, gaining just 8% as compared to the 35% jump in the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index. This underperformance can be attributed to the growing competition, with rivals such as Intel, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices witnessing strong demand for their server processors, graphics cards, and custom AI chips.

Candid_Payment_4094

Oh suddenly people realize that data centers DO need DRAM and HBM. Did we figure that out 20 minutes ago all of the sudden?

crunchwrapsupreme4

Unlike DDR, HBM has a dedicated logic die. It's much harder to etch, bond and test, and the latest versions require EUV. It's not just DDR with more bandwidth.

Spac55

$MU 2000 by year end One $NVDA GPU need 8 HBM from $MU for agentic AI real use of AI applications

tachyonvelocity

That “cheap memory” is for consumer memory. CXMT isn’t selling HBM which is AI memory and still bottlenecked

wilhelm96

There’s suddenly thousands of new ‘memory experts’ on TikTok talking about HBM and commodity cycles. MU will only stop after ever last one of them is wiped out

Samjabr

FUD about Chinese chipmakers. As though they can make HBM or use advanced nm processes.

KarlLachsfeld

How do you think memory is made? >SK hynix places record $8 billion order for ASML EUV lithography machines — should pay for up to 30 EUV machines over two years, serving HBM and advanced DRAM production

Organic_Garden_7076

KOSPI is so memory heavy that this looks more like a beta snapback than a clean growth signal. Everyone panicked about AI capex, dumped hardware, then remembered AI still needs DRAM/HBM. I’d wait for follow through in SK Hynix or Samsung, foreign flows, and USDKRW before calling it real. Otherwise it’s just another too many people leaned the wrong way candle.

amsgh

Fk you I hope HBM is no longer needed for AI (jk but not really)

GPUssydestroyer

CXMT doesn’t produce HBM

Ok-Entrepreneur-8195

Samsung Electronics is turning a former R&D site at Giheung into a 100,000‑wafer/month DRAM fab to meet AI‑driven memory demand. New Giheung DRAM Fab • New DRAM fab at Giheung campus (Yongin, Gyeonggi) with \~100,000 wafers/month capacity. • Investment expected in the tens of trillions of won. • Internal team formed; initial construction targeted as early as Q3. • Existing buildings at Giheung may be demolished for fab infrastructure. SR5 Site Repurposed • Built on former SR5 R&D center site, established in 1987 and now demolished. • Samsung scrapped plans for two new R&D centers there and chose memory production instead. AI Memory Demand Backdrop • Decision reflects global AI data center build‑out and worsening DRAM/HBM shortages. • HBM demand is outpacing supply, tightening commodity DRAM for smartphones/PCs. • Counterpoint Research sees global DRAM revenue rising from $150B to up to $210B. • Samsung’s >KRW 140T H1 operating profit supports more aggressive capex. Other Capacity Expansions • At Pyeongtaek P4, Samsung is adding a 100,000‑wafer/month line for HBM4 DRAM. • Plans a new fab at Yongin next‑gen cluster, targeting 2029 start. • Pursuing two advanced fabs at Gwangju cluster with KRW 400T total investment. Why It Matters Samsung is shifting space from R&D to high‑volume DRAM/HBM capacity, reinforcing a multi‑year memory supercycle as AI infrastructure spending accelerates.

Marv18GOAT

Completely different business and management. HBM didn’t even exist until 2013 this lawsuit is pure cope

No_Feeling920

Y'all act like demand destruction is not a thing in the business world. How much do you think the prices of HBM can go up before the price starts being prohibitive? The big guys have blown a lot of money already and it is not clear, how much deeper that AI capital well is.

Mundane-Dirt-4077

Whyd HBM crash 20%?

AsstronaughtToUranus

SpaceX is building a fab for HBM memory … in S P A C E

Guilty_Rooster_6708

using SSD is going to make inference speed extremely slow compare to running it on HBM, but AI still need SSDs for RAG (document storage), data training, and memory management. Both storage and memory uses NAND, so the shortage starts from there too. Memory bandwith also limits the tok/sec for prompt processing and inference, so all the SOTA AI companies need the latest HBM4 to make their models go brr

singhharsh004

Been building into the memory names too. When I was sizing it up I had Claude pull the last several quarters by segment, the DRAM and NAND split, how much of that DRAM is HBM now, gross margins through the cycle, capex and valuation vs the group. Made the DD way faster than digging through filings one by one.

ILikeCutePuppies

Lets take a frontier models like opus on claude code. For it to be cost efficient they need like 80GB - 100GBs of kv cache in HBM memory (super fast memory). Now maybe that can be compressed but then fable comes our which likely needs even more. It is so your chat context doesn't have to reprocess the entire conversation which is even more expensive. So because it's no expensive companies only hold on to it for an 5 minutes to an hour. Imagine having to have 100GBs per user per conversation. It starts to add up. Then you have the gpu memory as well for the decode - you need like 1TB across the gpus for each set you run in parrelel. Now you might be able to stream it in or take advantage of mixture of experts or route to smaller models for simple questions. Still takes a lot. Then you have all the standard supporting systems. Then you they use that same compute often during low peak to train their models. That also requires storage it can pull from fast, replication, many different checkpoints etc... I mean they could use cerebras but they are still scaling. Photonic probably still require memory although maybe less and that's still very early. Then you have all the companies doing voice, video and robotic simulations. It all requires massive amounts of very fast memory to train and diffuse/infer.

Jerky_san

It's not really memory in the sense of dram but memory called High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) . You see AI requires very low latency and ultra fast speeds. The more speed and the lower latency the more tokens it can handle. OpenAI supposedly bought a large amount of waffer supply that makes memory and caused a huge rush to buy as much as possible because all these companies want to build these mega data centers and fill them full of AI servers. Thus driving the cost of everything sky high. Memory is technically a commodity but there is only a very small pool of companies who make it and it's not like you can just build a fab overnight. Chinese supplier cxmt might come to rescue consumers though as they can make lower consumer dram and they are attempting to scale right now. There have been demos already of it and it reaching decent numbers. 

dune2350

if we chant the forward PE ratios of the HBM companies over and over, maybe we may get out of his hole yet.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Today's actions in the stock market proves to me most people don't know what the fuck they're doing The AI story still looks solid & the HBM/memory/storage story still looks underappreciated to me. What I saw today is a big mismatch between a multi-year investment cycle and a market that reacts to every 48-hour headline. I think that mismatch creates the volatility and for patient investors the opportunity, especially if you're holding Micron & SanDisk.

hammertanker

The price cap is only for current products (HBM3E and HBM4). Not for the upcoming HBM4E.

RolledForCredit

Yes. ~60% share of HBM. TSM makes ~7 of every 10 chips. 

Spac55

$SKHY next move like $TSM. Trillion market cap. It has \~60% of HBM-memory market dominance around global AI -Agent push by memory demands

Spac55

$KORU 1279 to 415 Still HBM memory demand strong

JuicyJohnny69

did you read the article or are you a FUD spreading robot? The analysts moved their earnings target 8% lower because they realized that SK was more focused on securing long term contracts and HBM rather than exploiting DRAM profit margins. However, a month ago SK did say that next quarter they would focus slightly more on DRAM than this quarter, and that news made them drop 10%

BlueberryWorried6493

Calling HBM and DDR5 uncorrelated is fucking braindead. HBM uses roughly 3x the wafer capacity per bit, so producing more HBM directly squeezes DDR5 supply, and DDR5 prices are rising, not stagnating. Consumer RAM is not the whole memory market, but it is still affected by the exact same supply constraint

Due_Size_9870

MU earnings just reported prices up >60% q/q, so they definitely didn’t peak in Jan. Spot prices are not necessarily correlated to contract prices and DDR5 pricing less important than HBM prices.

Dull-Tea8669

Ddr5 prices stagnating doesn't have any correlation or indication in HBM. Consumer RAM has simply hit the max price possible without destroying demand totally. So just because cosumer RAM doesn't increase in price doesn't mean that memory constraints are suddenly over overnight 

Spac55

$SKHYV China demand sky high for HBM memory This one dominated by 60% market share global HBM demand SKHynix

grassmunkie

3-4 big players (hyperscalers) are the bulk of the demand right now for HBM. Investors are pissed about their stocks going to the toilet due to capex, and they are literally going into debt and diluting shares, and going into negative cash flow. All it takes is for one of them to slow capex, and the whole trade will unravel. I still bullish some semi’s (Nvidia, TSM) and AI. I’m no bear, but I see too much complacency about this trade. When I was bullish Micron, few people were.

BlueberryWorried6493

I think OP is a regard but saying current DDR5 prices aren’t correlated to market prices might be more regarded DDR5 prices are high because HBM is taking up production capacity. If HBM demand drops and more DDR5 gets produced, DDR5 prices should fall .these things are correlated 

Legendary-Lemon

Also can mean less demand for high end products. Not everyone needs a MacBook Pro, maybe it’s good enough with a Chromebook. Just like not every model needs latest HBM generation cause new ones are lighter.

ga643953

Of course it doesn't move 1 to 1 with the sector but the trend is the same. Are you really pretending you can't see what the market has been doing when they bid up chips and have to sell SaaS or the other way around everyday? As for why I can still tell you how the market will move, it's simply because the market has always been stupid. The market doesn't understand most sectors, either. But do they shoot before asking questions first? Is it really hard to interpret what the market is thinking based on the pattern and the price movements? NVDA and hyperscalers have way better businesses with greater revenue visibility and longevity the short term FCF beneficiaries. There is also no point in all this AI buildout if there is no application layer. But what has the market been since the beginning of the year? Sell everything to buy your memory names. If the forces driving the market isn't expertise and understanding for the sectors but hype, trends, and irrationality, then why would you need to be knowledgeable about the secotrs to know if something is a good investment after these stock have gone parabolic? The trade has already happened and I can assure you there are more people in these memory names that have no idea what HBM even does than those who do. The stock is not the business, otherwise everyone can simply do a spreadsheet exercise and outperform the market every year.