Reddit Posts
AMD's new MI300x vs the field, plus future projections.
The Samsung Rival Taking an Early Lead in the Race for AI Memory Chips
A detailed DD for AMD in AI (Instinct MI300 breakdown)
4 Penny stocks that billionaires are loading up on
Is it possible to live on patent litigation? NLST is the most interesting example
Is it possible to live on patent litigation? NLST is the most interesting example
NLST is revolutionizing the memory market (NAND & DRAM) - Samsung and micron to pay IP licenses and damages for the netlist technology
Nvidia released a new "nuclear bomb", Google chatbot is also coming, computing power stocks again on the tide of halt
2023-02-28 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Hudbay slides after Q4 miss, reduced 2023 production guidance (NYSE:HBM)
Russia/Ukraine Conflict = Metals Squeeze | Choose Wisely!
$HBM – HORNBACH BAUMARKT is a rare, underpriced value stock w low free float <25% (think "GERMAN equivalent to HOME DEPOT")
HBM DD. SHORT INTEREST HIGH, VOLUME LOW, SOLID FUNDAMENTALS
Mentions
Semi analyst on MU > We reduce Micron’s $MU share of Nvidia Rubin HBM to zero. We currently do not see indications of Nvidia ordering Micron HBM. We expect Nvidia’s HBM4 supply to consolidate SK Hynix and Samsung at a 70/30 split.
SemiAnalysis: We reduce Micron’s [$MU](https://x.com/search?q=%24MU&src=cashtag_click) share of Nvidia Rubin HBM to zero. We currently do not see indications of Nvidia ordering Micron HBM. We expect Nvidia’s HBM4 supply to consolidate SK Hynix and Samsung at a 70/30 split. [9:05 AM · Feb 6, 2026](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2019774471360352728) · [ Views](https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2019774471360352728/analytics)
It’s bs. Nvidia does not publicly finalize HBM4 vendor mix this early
MU drop is for this: "SemiAnalysis: We reduce Micron’s $MU share of Nvidia Rubin HBM to zero. We currently do not see indications of Nvidia ordering Micron HBM. We expect Nvidia’s HBM4 supply to consolidate SK Hynix and Samsung at a 70/30 split." It makes no sense IMHO. Just noise
Saw a [good video](https://youtu.be/c6sEwdRaCNI) on this topic, there’s another one about HBM memory and MU on that channel. Both Sandisk and MU could be very undervalued still.
don't agree with this. it is extremely expensive even now, so even if it's revenue doubles, it will still trade at a huge premium. most of the extra capex comes from the skyrocketing HBM prices, and the AI infrastructure needs a ton of these.
Increasing production does not mean immediate supply increase. It may still take until 2028 to resolve. Also very much depends on the parts too. HBM4 vs NAMD, etc.
Buy MU. The demand for HBM is going to keep growing based on all the big capex plan from Mag seven.
Samsung/SK Hynix were reportedly not allowing long term pricing contracts for HBM and instead charging spot due to rising prices.
1. When you make as much money as Nvidia has, it attracts intense competition. Nvidia is not the only company capable of making products that can handle AI workloads. 2. HBM, datacenter capacity, energy capacity seem to increasingly becoming constraints that limit growth. 3. Initially in the AI growth cycle, capex was easily covered by the cash flow of large tech companies. Now, pretty much all of the cash flow is going into AI, and many such as Oracle and Meta are turning to debt markets to fund it. Leverage at big tech is still low, so I suspect we have a couple more years of capex growth, but I think it will level off soon.
Obviously they wouldn't be launching A100 or H100 in 3 years, they would be launching whatever the latest architecture at that point is in a package that will work in space. This is mostly for AI where memory errors are less important - remember that this is a field where its accepted to drop half to three quarters of the precision of your stuff stored in memory for performance - it can probably handle a beating. Even then, HBM etc does have ECC. Everything that goes into space is designed for it, and that will continue in the future. That design doesn't have to make it ridiculously expensive and slow though. Ingenuity was developed for $80m. It uses off the shelf smartphone sensors, cameras and SOCs. The primary reason stuff like cars uses older nodes is due to cost.
NVDA earnings will go 🟢 Gigantic earnings 🟢 Double beat 🟢 Guidance the GDP of the EU Then the fine print of the report 🚩 Hyperscalers still owe them cards from 2023 🚩 Oracle buying Blackwell cards on Klarna with 36 installments 🚩 Margins are now tree fiddy because HBM memory chips alone cost the same as the list price of the cards 🚩 Jensen goes on stage with a jacket made of thousands of American babies' foreskins and becomes the face of the 2020s tech sector hubris in history books ☄️ Stock craters and brings down all the indices
People are gonna shift to semiconductors heavily soon. Google is investing $180b in Cap Ex. Their TPU’s are built on micron HBM4
NAND supply will meet demand before HBM4. Google TPU’s use Micron HBM4
Google TPU’s use Micron HBM4, is that extra $90b in capex for micron?
For HBM4, I know MU is almost sold out of their 2027 stock, but it hasn’t been announced yet.
I haven’t read anything about HBM4 stabilizing.
True, but there's reports of prices finally stabilizing. The big concern I have is China is scaling up the production of DDR4/DDR5 as well as NAND, and is working to produce HBM3. While I think this will have limited impact on US based demand(the US will pressure US tech companies to avoid China), I think it will significantly reduce demand from China for Micron/SK Hynix/Samsung/Sandisk products.
So for googles ifs buying expensive HBM
Reddit: "Google will win AI wars because their TPUs make AI investment cheaper" In reality, Google is spending more on AI than OpenAI, Anthropic, and X.AI combined, just to produce an inferior product. The only real winner here is Broadcom(who Google buys their TPUs from, and possibly Micron/SK Hynix/Samsung who make HBM and TSMC for manufacturing the chips themselves).
High Capex = more HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)
This Micron(MU) dumpster fire is undeserved. HBM, DRAM, and NAND growth is only limited by production capacity. ASPs are up 300x in the last year. The market is missing the narrative - this isn’t about your gaming laptop memory.
It’s much less of a commodity right now. HBM is a highly customized solution, unlike DRAM, where manufacturers just produce for a given socket. Nobody knows when the demand falls, but this cycle will be absolutely different. It is not just producing and selling the same memory chips that are compatible with any board.
Big steppers move both ways, but the sentiment for the fundamentals still stands. Bullish news for February 11th is coming soon. If we get word 2027 is sold out for HBM4 then we are moonshot.
No. Sandisk was a small company, and everyone needs HBF flash memory. HBM becomes replaced, and thus money. But hey, if you don't understand the stock, it's oki
Samsung and SKHynix in Korea (and Micron in US) have an oligopoly on HBM, NAND, DRAM, GDDR and LPDDR memory chips. People often think of memory as a singular commodity product that probably goes into your hard drive. There are actually many tiers of memory products from high bandwidth memory which sits right on top of the GPU to DRAM which is used by data center AI clusters for near compute memory to NAND SSDs used for storage by data centers and retail consumer devices like laptops to memory chips in edge devices like cars and robots. These 3 companies produce almost all of these memory products, and are sold out for all of 2026. Now think what the next iteration of AI is going to be. AI agents with massive context about your previous task requests and all your personal history (so huge memory demand for the newer agents). Video AI, in game AI and immersive AI(again massive memory needs).
IP for HBM and DRAM are held by the Big 3 (Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron) with extremely high barriers to entry.
AMD guided down due to a shrinking Gaming segment. Lisa Su stated that datacenter revenue will grow sequentially in Q1. She said the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for PCs was shrinking because of "inflationary pressures of commodities pricing, including memory." AMD’s inventory rose QoQ by $600m to $7.9bn, and practically all of it is in the WIP Inventory. Couple this with what Jensen has mentioned, needing a lot of memory (HBM and DRAM), means AMD’s inventory being stuck in WIP is most likely because there is a chronic shortage of memory in the market. What this fucking means is that all the memory stocks are undervalued as fuck since they are booked out to mid 2027 last MU earnings call.
Despite AMD delivering a broadly stronger‑than‑expected earnings report, the stock fell roughly 5% after hours. The decline reflects not the results themselves, but the market’s extremely demanding valuation framework. Revenue came in at $10.3B versus the $9.65B consensus, and EPS of $1.53 far exceeded expectations. Data Center remained the sole growth engine, reaching $5.4B (+39% YoY) on strong MI300/MI325 demand. Client and Gaming revenue rose to $3.9B (+37%), signaling a PC‑cycle rebound. Gross margin held at 57%, but next‑quarter guidance was cut to 55%, interpreted as a warning that AMD may be sacrificing pricing to win share from NVIDIA or absorbing higher HBM/TSMC costs. The stock’s weakness stems from “guidance failing to match valuation.” AMD has rallied over 110% in a year—far outpacing NVIDIA—and now trades near 120x earnings. Markets no longer reward “beats”; they demand “miracles.” Although Q1 guidance slightly exceeded expectations, the 5% sequential decline (seasonal Gaming weakness) gave bears an opening. The $100M MI308 China‑specific revenue included in Q1 also raised concerns about long‑term sustainability under shifting geopolitical rules. Meanwhile, legacy businesses (consoles, embedded) remain soft, diluting the high‑margin AI narrative. The bull case argues AMD is the second‑largest beneficiary of the “compute tax.” With TSMC’s AI capacity constrained, hyperscalers must support AMD as a strategic alternative to NVIDIA. ROCm performance now matches CUDA across major frameworks, lowering switching costs. CEO Lisa Su is known for conservative guidance, leaving room for future upside. Bears counter that NVIDIA’s next architecture may widen the performance gap again, forcing AMD into a price‑driven strategy that caps margins. Cloud providers’ in‑house ASIC development also threatens AMD more than NVIDIA. With a forward P/E near 37, any stumble in MI450 development could trigger a sharp derating. Across the supply chain, AMD’s results confirm that North American hyperscaler AI CapEx remains in expansion mode—benefiting TSMC, HBM suppliers (SK Hynix, Micron), and networking vendors. Technically, AMD must hold the $225–$230 support zone; a breakdown would signal market doubts about the durability of its AI story. The key variable for the next two quarters is whether the 3nm MI450 can tape out on schedule. If it does, AMD will finally have the firepower to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance.
It's 192gb of "ram" (HBM) per card, retard.
>Intel pioneered memory technology, creating early DRAM and EPROM chips, **but the company sold its SSD and NAND flash memory business to SK Hynix in 2020-2021**, exiting the high-volume commodity memory sector. >Intel but is returning to the memory business through a partnership with SoftBank (Saimemory) to develop advanced, vertically stacked memory (ZAM) for AI, competing with HBM, while continuing to use fast memory like 3D XPoint (now sold) in their own high-performance products, facing current industry-wide shortages and price hikes.
They're working on it in NAND and HBM instead. YMTC and CXMT.
The execs will recommend they get back into the RAM business 40 years after abandoning it. If they start today, they'll have HBM ready by the time it's no longer in demand.
Software companies 🅱️roke so chip companies will go 🅱️roke which means less HBM demand so memory companies go 🅱️roke
Not even close. MU is in NAND, DRAM, and HBM. WDC isn't in nearly the same pricing opportunity.
Conservative price targets is $2k for SNDK and $1.5k for MU. The memory demand is fucking ridiculous right now so realistically the sky is the limit. DRAM, HBM, 3D NAND, etc, all their prices are spiking 100% EVERY MONTH because of demand.
Micron does look solid. Those events could push it up fast, and with HBM4 demand, 2027 selling out isn’t far-fetched. SK tariffs would just add fuel.
Micron has sold out its HBM for 2026 and I imagine 2027 HBM will be sold out before the end of the year. Contract prices for traditional DRAM are up 90-95% in 1Q26 according to TrendForce. Imagine what that’s going to do for Micron’s margins. I doubt Micron was forecasting a 90%+ increase in DRAM prices when they gave guidance for the current quarter. Have a strong feeling Micron will hit $600 within the next 90 days and may become a 1T company by the end of the year.
Micron for sure. Samsung & SK Hynix are good companies. But the sentiment remains with micron. Two great events lined up, possibly selling out of 2027 and announcing before the end of March. Also if Trump places any semiconductor tariffs on SK, it’s endgame. I easily see it hitting the one trillion cap by the end of the year since HBM4 will probably be sold out until 2028 At least.
I bought MU back in September, at the time it has been going up for a while and I just bought some Sandisk today after it went up 14%. Seems scarily high I know but the PE is still making sense. Wall street still thinks these two companies are cyclical, once demand fall it will flop, but the AI demand for memory will grow exponentially, which is still not priced in. You can also look into SK hynix, HBM company but get less traction than MU as it's listed in Korea.
I think Micron is the safer bet. Their HBM is sold out for 2026 and they're signing multi-year contracts with customers giving them quite a bit of visibility into future revenue. Micron also has fewer competitors (only two for HBM) than SanDisk (about 4). I thought maybe I had missed a lot of the upside when I bought around $242 but it has continued to blow away my expectations. A TrendForce report released today said that contract prices for conventional DRAM have risen 90-95% in 1Q26 vs last quarter. I'm guessing Micron will very likely post another blowout quarter when they report next month and guide much higher than analysts are expecting. Won't be surprised if Micron hits $600 within the next two or three months and continues climbing.
You retards remind me of the boomers who can't tell CPU and PC apart lmao, MU makes DRAM and HBM, Idk why you're grouping SNDK with MU when they're making NAND flash memory just like STX and WDC
I was very vocal that this would happen, I was telling people that HBM/DRAM would become the bottleneck well before DRAM prices skyrocketed. I don't need to buy anymore, I already own plenty.
MU is a safer bet imo. The real future growth is in HBM and DRAM. Plus these are harder to manufacture by Chinese makers atleast to the efficiencies provided by SK/MU. On other hand SanDisk is concentrated on the SSD market.
Memory stocks have been exploding. One can argue about NAND and SSDs, but HBM definitely has a lot of room to run and a very short list of suppliers
If you want to get bullish on MU and HBM memory in general, I suggest you check out [this video](https://youtu.be/u8syYUU3N1o?si=VNWLA7SJ4l1i9dXj)
MU obviously because they deal with high margin HBM versus Sandisk in lower margin memory, expect Chinese memory makers to make headwinds in this dpace by eoy
I’m like HBM, seem to do well, earnings are consistently positive.
I’m bullish on Micron and HBM memory related stocks. I just did a video essay on this topic
This is the answer. No one is coming to save the market in 2026. Even in 2027 most of the new fabs won't be online yet - Micron bought a fab in Taiwan just to convert it, but they said their new build in Idaho won't produce anything meaningful for two years. Other forms of memory are being squeezed as the big three prioritize HBM. This has at least two years to run, though yes the biggest gains are behind us.
> Specifically because Nividia uses silver in its high-end AI GPUs and server boards. LOL, dude. Yes, NVIDIA GPUs uses silver, but not in any economically meaningful quantity. It's used in solders mostly (typically Sn-Ag-Cu alloys) and it is standard across the semiconductor industry, not NVIDIA-specific. Also, small amounts of silver are used in die attach materials, thermal interface materials, and conductive adhesives. Silver is not a core input like silicon, copper, or aluminum. There is no scaling relationship between GPU volume and silver demand that matters at the commodity level. Nor does increase in silver price change the economics of GPU market. Back of envelope check. Assume 5–10 grams of silver per GPU server (this is far, far above reality). Silver at $100/oz ≈ $3/gram, that’s $15 of silver per server. HGX / DGX-class servers sell for $150k–$400k+. NVIDIA’s gross margins are driven by, silicon yield and wafer pricing (TSMC), advanced packaging (CoWoS), HBM stacks and software (CUDA, networking, ecosystem lock-in). Raw material prices are almost inconsequential.
Saw a good video on why Micron and HBM stocks could still be undervalued https://shorturl.at/Tv0eX
My opinion is 50/50 and be happy. MUU (in my opinion, more stable, but really, maybe not) and SNXX (in my opinion more possble gains, but really, maybe not) will be good about equally. Don't need to be greedy. Micron has more clarity and looks safer because of historical ER data showing more shit and their "fixed" pricing on HBM, but of course, DDR5/LPDDR/NAND pricing increasing. SNDK they are much smaller cap, and they go from neg. trailing PE to low FWD PE (don't just read shit, calculate the PE yourself, and extrapolate memory pricing increases from known and very possible future price rises). You will come to the conclusion that their FWD PE about equal at 9 - 12 - depends how you want to price in pricing increases and approximate quarterly pricing increases.
I ran AI analysis on this thead, and asked it to recommend a stock that is expected to move the most with Copper: If copper goes to $5.00/lb or higher, here is the likely order of performance (Percentage Gain): Surge Copper (SURG): Highest risk, highest potential reward (Exploration stage). Taseko (TGB): High leverage, produces cash now (Small Producer). Hudbay (HBM): Strong leverage, safer asset base (Mid-Tier Producer). Freeport (FCX) / Southern Copper (SCCO): Steady gains, dividends (Major Producers). Final Call: Stick with Taseko (TGB) if you want the sweet spot between "actually selling copper today" and "small enough to double quickly."
SK Hynix owns the HBM market, they've got like 60% marketshare compared to 20% for Samsung and Micron.
What do they do that's even AI related? They're a memory and storage company that doesnt have a fab. They dont produce HBM. I dont get it.
Well, storage and HBM became the new GPU. So lump MU in here too.
No, I don’t day trade. I’ve been holding MUU since November or December of last year and it’s tripled my original investment so far. I bought both MU and MUU to kind of balance the leverage a little bit but MUU has really taken off. I plan on holding probably until the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year. If Micron hasn’t announced that 2027 HBM is sold out by then I’ll probably sell some or all of MUU and diversify a little bit.
Gotta be cool with them if you want any bargaining room in the tightest market for the next five years. Although Micron is scaling its production, it’s gonna take years to begin. Samsung has crappy inefficient HBM4
If you don’t know what HBM4 is, figure it out.
Micron earns a large portion of its revenue from DRAM memory chips (alongside NAND and HBM). When DRAM prices rise because supply is tight relative to demand — like what DRAMeXchange tracks — it generally means Micron can sell chips at higher average selling prices (ASPs).
MU is the only American HBM4 manufacturer. I’m in for HBM4
incorrect, China doesn't have the technology to make data center quality NAND chips, at best they can step into the consumer PC market. They are essentially not allowed to use the advanced US/Dutch manufacturing tools/machines needed to make the more advanced/expensive data center/A.I. memory. In terms of HBM China can only produce HBM2, while Micron and SK Hynix are selling out of HBM3E and moving to HBM4
Any copper miners in particular you're looking at? I'm holding a bit of HBM right now and it's been doing well for me.
I think he’s trying to say AI players are running out of money. But either way Micron is about to sell out of 2027. Micron is all data centers too & they make the best HBM4 as compared to Samsung. I think we may sell out of 2028 HBM by the end of this year.
MU has been printing for me for 3 weeks. By the way, they are one of THREE companies that can produce HBM4 (high bandwidth memory). Analysts think it will blow its earnings up like a nuke.
Is Samsung gets the approval for Nvidia’s HBM chips, will that hammer down MU?
MU has an announcement for an investors event on Feb 20th then earnings on March 19th. They will sell out of 2027 HBM4 soon. If they sell out of 2028 by the end of the year the bears will need funeral services.
Might be this year, might be next year. Right now we’re just waiting for 2027 HBM to sell out fully instead of partially.
Might also want to look at IE, HBM. Latter was downgraded today so might get a bit of a pullback (although maybe not as copper continues to ramp.)
ETF: COPX Stocks: FCX HBM
Thinking about starting a position in HBM myself, earnings next month should be a big beat.
“Without the memory (HBM), there is no AI supercomputer.” — summarizing how essential memory is to Nvidia’s AI ecosystem.
Probably. Tiny dip this evening since the rival posted earnings. Happened the other day when they announced a deal. Overall it’s null. MU is the only ticker in the HBM market the US has.
Yess LAM. 1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) Actual (Non-GAAP): $1.19 Analyst Estimate: $1.17 Result: Beat by $0.02. 2. Revenue Actual: $5.27 Billion Analyst Estimate: $5.23 – $5.24 Billion Result: Beat by roughly $30-$40 million. AI Demand: The company noted that strong demand for chipmaking equipment—specifically for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—was a major driver of the results.
Sk Hynix and Samsung report earnings this evening I believe which may be even more important for MU as they’re the big HBM players. I’m not convinced this isn’t cyclical yet, but I agree that it seems to be shifting.
This is because SK Hynix earnings dropped and they confirmed that the cycles going to keep going. They’re also spending capex to increase production and they said CAGR for HBM4 is looking to be 25% a year till 2030. Samsung earning calls is tomorrow. I think MU will rally to $450 in the coming days.
oh I have, bought in at $112. HBM catalyst was clear more than a year ago. just an insane run and sold some way too early lol
The difference between “stock of interest” and a “Silent stock” is mainly in timing. When a stock isn’t gaining any attention but it’s a clear bottleneck for the future - that’s a silent stock. A stock of interest would most often be a stock that didn’t yet pass all my investment parameters OR a stock that is in a pullback. For example, a stock of interest is netflix - it has fallen quite much and im looking at an entry. Example for a “silent” stock, EV situation few years ago. There were headlines about EV being the future. For that future to pan out, you need 4x copper than a regular car, other raw materials ofc and etc. A good player back then was $HBM. Clear bottleneck play. $HMB was “silent”, moving in consolidation at $7 until May past year. Now it’s at $25. In short, the main differences: One gets the right attention currently and the other one doesn’t.
Given MSFT’s publishing complete bullshit ‘development’ in Quantum, I took a closer look… It’s nothing to do with the ‘fantastic design’ of their chip, they’ve stacked double the HBM on the package, and they’re likely comparing to an older Google’s TPU version and not their upcoming v7. In fact, the MAIA200 has 140 billion transistors vs Google’s TPU v4 having 22 billion on 7nm node. So equivalent density at 4nm (their v6 release in 24/25) would be approx 45 billion transistors. So 3x the perf is kind of ‘par’ and not something magical, and the fact it’s only 3x perf in ‘***some***’ tasks is demonstrative of MSFT still lagging, living in 2024…
If it was easy then more than 3 companies would be making HBM. It’s definitely hard to make.
I'm bullish on MU, but I'm not sure about the short-term. This seems more like a long-term play. Micron announced $125B+ in new fab investments over the past 11 days: * $100B New York megafab (largest US semiconductor facility) * $24B Singapore fab (broke ground today) * Signed Letter of Intent on $1.8B Taiwan fab acquisition (PSMC (PowerChip) P5 site, along with existing 300,000 sqft cleanroom) Q2 guidance: $18.7B revenue, $8.42 EPS which is nearly double the $4.78 they posted. They've already sold out their entire 2026 HBM supply and management said supply tightness will persist beyond 2026. HBM market expected to grow from $35B (2025) to $100B (2028). This is all according to their forecasts. Again, I don't think this is a short-term play, new capacity won't contribute until at least 2nd half of 2027-2028 but the setup looks solid. It's great that they're buying new equipment and sites, but it takes a lot of time for either new development or production ramp up. Sources: * [Singapore fab](https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-breaks-ground-advanced-wafer-fabrication-facility) * [New York megafab](https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-celebrates-official-groundbreaking-new-york-megafab-site) * [Taiwan acquisition](https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-signs-letter-intent-purchase-tongluo-site-begin-strategic) * [Q1 earnings](https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-first-quarter-fiscal-2026)
Maybe because samsung is almost certified for the HBM4 chip, as its supposed to be MICRON 👀🐂
I hope you're right. I bought calls yesterday and today bc I thought it won't fall much more after the news that Samsung has a deal with Nvidia for HBM4 chips. I never buy 0dte or shit like that, so it has a few weeks time.
NLST 👀 David vs. Goliath: Fighting Big Tech and Winning Long an underdog relative to global giants like Samsung, Micron, and Google, Netlist under Chuck Hong’s leadership has repeatedly demonstrated that vision and innovation matter. Twice in recent years, juries in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas have found willful infringement by major competitors: Against Micron: A $445 million damages award for violation of core Netlist memory patents. Against Samsung: A $118 million jury award in late 2024 for infringement across three Netlist patents, adding to earlier victories worth over $300 million. Across 19 months of litigation, Netlist has amassed over $866 million in combined award damages from established semiconductor leaders—a testament to the strength and lasting relevance of its technologies. Many see this as a true David-versus-Goliath saga, where a lean innovator stands up against billion-dollar corporations and defends its creations not just in courtrooms, but in the competitive marketplace. Powering AI and the Next Computing Era Memory is the heartbeat of artificial intelligence systems and high-performance computing. DDR5 and HBM technologies—fast, dense, and efficient memory solutions—are essential to deep learning training, inference workloads, and massive data throughput applications. Netlist’s patents and products align directly with these trends, and the company’s legal victories underscore the foundational role its intellectual property plays in modern computing.
NLST 👀 David vs. Goliath: Fighting Big Tech and Winning Long an underdog relative to global giants like Samsung, Micron, and Google, Netlist under Chuck Hong’s leadership has repeatedly demonstrated that vision and innovation matter. Twice in recent years, juries in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas have found willful infringement by major competitors: Against Micron: A $445 million damages award for violation of core Netlist memory patents. Against Samsung: A $118 million jury award in late 2024 for infringement across three Netlist patents, adding to earlier victories worth over $300 million. Across 19 months of litigation, Netlist has amassed over $866 million in combined award damages from established semiconductor leaders—a testament to the strength and lasting relevance of its technologies. Many see this as a true David-versus-Goliath saga, where a lean innovator stands up against billion-dollar corporations and defends its creations not just in courtrooms, but in the competitive marketplace. Powering AI and the Next Computing Era Memory is the heartbeat of artificial intelligence systems and high-performance computing. DDR5 and HBM technologies—fast, dense, and efficient memory solutions—are essential to deep learning training, inference workloads, and massive data throughput applications. Netlist’s patents and products align directly with these trends, and the company’s legal victories underscore the foundational role its intellectual property plays in modern computing.
Memory cycles are brutal and everyone thinks they can time the top til they cant. Micron's HBM ramp is real but once server demand softens you're gonna see guidance cuts hit like a brick wall. With 1000% gains on calls, I'd roll half into shares and let the rest ride. You already won, dont give it all back trying to catch the last 10%.
Yes, storage has caught the retail sentiment. HBM not as much.
I don’t think the AVGO comparison works here. AVGO is the leader in custom AI chips, which is a very sticky business. You only attract customers with deep pockets committed to 5-10 year roadmaps. If you want custom silicon, you go to them. Marvell is #2 by a mile and they’re looking to pivot more towards networking since they’re uncompetitive on the chips side. AVGO is also 2nd in AI networking revenue after Nvidia. They also have a huge software business in VMWare. Micron is at a 10 forward PE because of the cyclicality of its industry, because memory is a commodity, and because it ranks #3 in HBM (it doesn’t even have 20% share). For these reasons, it will not command the same PE as Broadcom or even an Nvidia (25-40x in recent years). I think Micron will double from here (probably this year) but I don’t expect it to trade at a growth valuation since it doesn’t have a moat like other semiconductor companies. If Micron went out of business tomorrow you could replace them with SK and Samsung. The same can’t be said if Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC, ASML, etc went out of business.
The logic holds. We spend so much time looking at the 'Engine' (GPUs/NVDA), we forget the 'Fuel Line' (HBM). You can't scale compute without scaling memory bandwidth; it's physically impossible. The disparity in P/E between $MU and the rest of the AI stack is the anomaly. The market is still pricing it like a commodity cyclist instead of an AI infrastructure essential. If that 'sold out through 2026' floor holds, the valuation gap has to close.
Fireweed FWZ, still in the exploration stage but lots of exposure to zinc and also some critical metals and best of all backed by Lundin family. Also hold HBM.
Agree. Plus their revenues and profits are accelerating due to the high demand for HBM and current memory shortage.
Exactly, that’s the key shift. MU used to be purely cyclical, HBM changes that, making the company's earning power structurally higher. Forward metrics capture this picture more clearly i think.
When Sam Altman runs out of money (from ads in chatGPT), his DRAM orders and all other orders will be cancelled, and every idiot CEO that bet all his company on HBM for Sam's infinite money glitch will likely get fired for a massive earnings miss and stock price crater. This is a TLDR of your "memory super cycle".
The only bearish case I see is If hyperscalers slow spending for 2–3 quarters, memory can still dump hard even if the 2–3 year thesis is intact. HBM is supply-constrained… until it’s not. The moment supply ramps faster than demand, margins compress and the market will front-run that. Historically, memory tops when pricing is strongest, everything thinks shortage last forever, and capacity expansion looks justified. Overall I am bullish on Micron (I wrote a DD on Micron for their September earning call in 2025 a while back in WSB) so you can be right in the long term but still eat a nasty drawdown. My only regret was selling it too early lol. Still holding some but I made a huge fumble when there was that liqudity crunch in Oct/Nov. I think Micron is for sure a solid hold and the biggest bet would be if it looks like demand will carry on beyond 2028.
I agree with the super-cycle thesis, but Oracle’s recent price action shows that even a massive backlog doesn’t guarantee a stock rally. If the AI bubble eventually bursts — even if not immediately — semiconductors will likely be the first sector to feel it. The HBM roadmap is compelling, but we can’t ignore historical cyclicality and the risk of a broader tech re-rating.It’s a strong bull case overall, but Oracle is a good “sanity check.”
Been watching MU for a while and you're definitely onto something with the HBM play. That insider dropping 7.8 mil is pretty telling - they don't usually throw around that kind of money on a whim The forward P/E at 10-12x does look pretty juicy compared to the rest of the AI gang. Only thing that makes me nervous is how brutal these memory cycles can be when they turn, but if this shortage really runs till 2030 like you're thinking then we're probably sitting pretty for the next few years Might have to grab some calls on the next dip