HBM

Clackamas_river

Storage - HBM memory to disk and it will be the bottleneck for a long time. Next could be glass substrates for chips. Look at Corning.

Clackamas_river

At the time the network was the limiting factor, last mile, all that. CSCO has been a steady growth company and a great stock since then. Now it is storage from HBM to spinning disks.

nobodyllc

Advantest is the best company for testing semiconductors equipment ATE. AEHR makes probe cards for wafer sort (test silicon before package). complicated packaging which is becoming more popular with HBM. Keysight makes oscilloscopes and other test equipment for mostly for validation and testing. Doesn’t scale as much with more chips being built. Teradyne makes protocol analyzers more similar to keysight. AEHR is a high growth high beta play be mindful to watch valuation before buying.

Educational_Salt7147

Chinese companies are few years behind on HBM chips

liuqiu_rangers

Hynix and Micron declined in HBM because Samsung ramped up. Hynix declined in overall DRAM segment because they're more focused on long-term HBM positioning with LTAs. I really wouldn't worry too much right now.

Designer_Respect4285

Their share of HBM also declined though. Also, and this is probably temporary, but I believe commodity DRAM prices actually went up more than HBM recently.

satireplusplus

LLM inference is memory bound, so storing the weights in SRAM gives you crazy speedups for single session inference. If you're a provider you're batching requests though and throughput is another story. Its vastly more efficient to run multiple parallel generations on HBM. Load the weights you need for the next matmul once, use them for multiple chats basically.

on_hype

Couple issues with the math. Groq wasn't acquired for $20B, that was a rumored valuation. And the 150x bandwidth comparison is misleading since you're comparing on-chip SRAM bandwidth to off-chip HBM bandwidth, which are fundamentally different bottlenecks. Real world token throughput doesn't scale linearly with raw SRAM bandwidth because interconnect latency between 25,000 chips becomes the dominant constraint, not memory bandwidth per chip. The TSMC capacity argument is more interesting though. If SRAM-heavy inference chips gain real traction, N3 wafer allocation becomes a genuine bottleneck. But that's a big "if" since Groq still hasn't demonstrated cost-competitive inference at scale against Nvidia's ecosystem. What's your position here? The thesis seems to point toward TSM as the picks-and-shovels play regardless of which architecture wins.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Weights for Cerebras and Groq are stored in SRAM. That's why their inference can be 15-20x faster today. They're experimenting with hybrid solutions which include HBM. But that's a different class. It's in the middle. Weights in HBM --> GPUs/TPUs Weights in SRAM & HBM --> Cerebras + HBM and Nvidia Groq LPU with Vera Rubin Weights in pure SRAM --> Cerebras and Groq

Wonderful-Sail-1126

>Jalapeño uses a hybrid SRAM + HBM. So do Nvidia GPUs. All chips have onboard SRAM. It's how you store the model that is important. Jalapeno would compete against normal Nvidia GPUs. Groq/Cerebras are a different class of chips designed for high speed inference.

rahul91105

My only point is that your initial premise of 25k grok chips for inference is just wrong. Jalapeño uses a hybrid SRAM + HBM. The rest for all the companies you mentioned (which aren’t direct SRAM plays to begin with) to go up on increased demand is already priced in.

Cav829

You'll probably be rewarded eventually long-term going with MU over SNDK as HBM manufacturers are better insulated. Right now, it's just all getting thrown together.

fallingdowndizzyvr

Nvidia already said a while back that this is so supply constrained that they are redesigning some products that were meant to use HBM4E to use HBM4 instead.

AlvinLiao0729

The backlog conversion question has a physical dimension too. Dell's AI server deliveries run through Nvidia GPU supply, which runs through TSMC advanced packaging — lead times there are 52-78 weeks, sold out through 2027. Bloomberg reported last week Nvidia is telling its biggest customers servers are going up 15%+ because HBM memory costs keep climbing. $95B backlog is real demand but the delivery pace is gated by materials Dell doesn't control. I'd watch GPU allocation shifts quarter to quarter more than the top-line backlog number.

kexportstars

This makes a lot of sense from a risk-mitigation standpoint. Moving from HBM3E to HBM4/4E shifts the base die from a standard DRAM process to leading-edge logic (3nm/5nm class), where TSMC is already completely booked out by Nvidia, Apple, and AMD. SK hynix relying 100% on TSMC creates a massive packaging and wafer allocation bottleneck down the road. Dual-sourcing with Intel Foundry gives hynix leverage and guaranteed wafer supply, especially as they build out their Indiana advanced packaging facility. For Intel, bagging base die volume for the market share leader in HBM would be a massive credibility win for IFS without having to design the complex silicon themselves.

oxide238

It would take ten years for a company like Google or Microsoft to build a memory fab and then reach current HBM tech, and what would they do in the meantime?

PowerfulSeeds

To be fair MU is operating at over 80% margin. There is a demand level where its cheaper to make your own fab. Especially since the big 3 HBM guys are slow rolling their inventory and pushing those margins even higher. I dont know if we're there yet, I'm not going to do all the math. But I'm willing to bet the mag7 did.

mehdizare

If memory is half of AI spend, the constraint is HBM/DRAM supply and pricing, not just accelerator list price. Capex then has more cycle risk than a pure GPU story implies. How are people separating "AI spend" from the memory restock inside it?

mayorolivia

There it is folks. The Information just published its weekly hit piece on Western HBM.

Shijaki

>SK Hynix (SKHY) is not currently considering Intel's (INTC) Foundry for HBM4E production, refuting a report on Monday from the Herald Economy that the chipmaker was considering the foundry for HBM4E base-die production alongside Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) this story getting confirmed by 'industry sources' hours ago, then getting directly denied pretty much sums up the state of semis right now

Afraid-Policy-3648

Kospi regarding Samsung: "Profitability improvement expected from HBM4 mass production stabilization, LS Securities raises target price to 450,000 won"

hirschimwald

If we're only using NTM P/E, then [TIKR.com](http://TIKR.com) gives me 18.72x. But I don't think that is sufficient for the whole picture. All hyperscalers have massive off-balance-sheet commitments. I am too lazy to look for hard numbers, but Oracle definitely has some. And Oracle is carrying the obsolence risk both for their own equipment and most likely for some off-balance-sheet contracts. If all the technological leaps expected for 2028 come true (Vera Rubin, HBM5, HBF, co-packaged optics, etc), then vintage 2025 equipment will be just electro scrap in 2028 (because the bottleneck is data center permission and power cost). The big problem with Oracle is: they were among the first to jump on the train, they have an awful lot of relatively old equipment. And they definitely have not budgeted a 3 year capex write down.

AlvinLiao0729

The margin guide tells the story — Nvidia went from 78% gross margin two quarters ago to guiding 71-72% by Q4, and the CFO specifically called out memory pricing as the driver. Supply commitments jumped from $119B to $279B in one quarter, mostly to lock in HBM for the Vera Rubin ramp. That's Nvidia paying up to secure components it can't get elsewhere. SK Hynix controls 58% of HBM and just posted a 76% operating margin — a meaningful slice of the value in every AI server is now accruing to the memory supplier, not the GPU designer. Same dynamic in optical interconnects where InP laser suppliers went from losing money to 45% margins in under a year. Nvidia is still the center of gravity but the profit is spreading outward through the supply chain faster than most people realize.

ev0lii

Even in the most pessimistic scenario, Chinese companies will only represent 10-15% of the HBM market in 2030. Building memory factories is long and China is clearly behind in quality + Trump will never let China profit from the AI rally

Specific-Path3179

PE is an irrelevant metric for Nvidia, they're well positioned for near infinite growth. Even if AI collapses everyone is a Linux SteamOS PC Gamer who will buy an nvidia HBM card financed by klarna.

kexportstars

Classic 'sell the news' mixed with shifting margin dynamics. The question isn't whether hyperscalers are spending—capex is still massive. It's margin capture and BOM cost. As Blackwell ramps, packaging (CoWoS) and high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E) take up a much larger slice of the total server bill. SK Hynix and Samsung are pricing HBM aggressively because supply is locked up through 2025, which caps Nvidia's gross margin upside from its mid-70s peak. The market is just repricing Nvidia from an unconstrained margin monopoly to one dealing with real supply chain profit-sharing

Traditional-Chip8339

Yes, SK Hynix still has the "Korea discount" while Micron does not, yet they are the leader in HBM and main supplier to NVIDIA. I agree largely but let's not forget there is still risk to this trade and we don't know whether China will eventually flood the world with memory in a few years. I am still long SK Hynix but I got in early 2025 and sitting on gains. Still think if you are AGI pilled you should own NVIDIA, SK Hynix, Goole, Intel, maybe ASML and TSMC. Intel only because if there is a Taiwan blockade their fabs quadruple in value overnight. I laid out the AI boom vs. doom case for 2027. This was before NVIDIA crushed earnings yesterday so I would update even more towards the boom case. [https://substack.com/@habanerohottakes/note/c-320956545?utm\_source=notes-share-action&r=5eqgwg](https://substack.com/@habanerohottakes/note/c-320956545?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=5eqgwg)

wotoan

There is no thesis, I expect a slow deflation as high margin data demand disappears price sensitive high volume consumers become the target market again, ie HBM demand goes to shit GDDR7 and DDR5 prices crash.

erichang

first, your math is way off, even it is true. 91%\^5 is still 63%, no where close to dead statically. 2nd, this is a test in heavy training workload in 54 day stretched to 1 year prediction. 3rd, the servers come with 3 year warranty. Your 5 year is actually 2 year, so the defective rate will be at worst 83% 4th, a lot (1/3 of hardware-only related) of them are from HBM3 issue that are being solved in HBM3e and HBM4 as we speak. 5th, Of the 9% failure rate, only 47% are hardware related, so the actual problem related to the server that could cause the hardware to be useless is only about 4.3%. Apply all that, the server survival rate after 5 year is well above 90%.

T-Zing

$44 billion market cap for GTA 6 is insane, is one of the side missions to manufacture real life NAND HBM or HBF with Trevor or something?

ozarkabottle

Bro Hynix is up almost 600% in the last 12 months. The owner of Hynix is currently going through a divorce and he needs to give his wife billions of dollars. He told the court he can pay her with stocks because obviously no one has billions in cash laying around. The wife rejected the offer and told him to give it to her in cash. Which means he has to dump billions of dollars worth of his own Hynix stocks to pay her. He repealed it in court so the ruling has been pushed to a later date, but if he loses, he's going to have to sell like half his shares. This is a big issue in Korea right now amongst shareholders. Also, Hynix is the big dog in HBM3, but rumors have been floating around that Samsung is going to take over marketshares in HBM4. The reason for this is in order to move from HBM3 to HBM4, you have to readjust all the manufacturing lines. Hynix is pumping out chips full capacity and can't readjust the manufacturing lines unless they shut it down for a couple months. Samsung already gave up trying to compete with Hynix in HBM3, so Samsung had the time to readjust half their factories for HBM4. There are many reasons Hynix seems "undervalued", but in reality it's not undervalued and trading according to multiple news and analysts.

Nice-Dingo9138

Atlas shrugged. NVDA said hold my HBM.

scramjetmode

It will. Give it a month. Nvidia basically confirmed AI demand is still running hot, which is bullish for HBM volumes. If memory stays tight, Micron keeps the pricing power.

Own-Recipe5908

Yeah, but they'll be making at most HBM3 and DDR5. Which will help consumer shortages and blackwell-tier chips, but not compete at the cutting edge. Yet, at least.

AlvinLiao0729

Power gets all the attention but the constraint that's already biting is further up the stack. Nvidia just disclosed that its supply commitments jumped from $119B to $279B in a single quarter — most of that is memory being locked in for the Vera Rubin ramp. HBM takes 3x the wafer area of regular DRAM per bit, and the 2.5D packaging step to put it next to a GPU runs through a handful of fabs that are sold out through 2027. Meanwhile the substrate material underneath all of it — ABF film — is controlled 95%+ by one Japanese company, and prices just went up 30%. You can build all the power plants you want, but if the packaging queue and the material supply can't keep up, the racks sit half-populated.

GonnaWinSoMuch7

the reason SKHY is not dumping like MU and SNDK right now is that Nvidia and SK Hynix are deeply intertwined through a long-term, co-development and supply partnership for HBM. Wsb kinda sleeping on Sk hynix

Upstairs_Whole_580

I... cannot tell if you're being facetious, but no, I don't have a blog. If I did, I'd say... the entire fucking premise of this post was blown the fuck up today with Nvidia's earnings, their obligations... which while reaching 279B were over half HBM4, so buy SKHY or MU even more now. Nvidia and Jensen just showed us why we're still accelerating over the next 2-years and growing at 70% in F'27 over analysts estimates of 45%. I've long doubted the 10T market cap. I think this earnings just made that far more plausible. If we could get the fuck out of Iran, get the strait opened back up and get yields back down, I have no doubt it'd be at 250 right now(though per the OP, that'd just be all the boogeymen preparing the rug pull).

Upstairs_Whole_580

Yes, absolutely. SKHY I think will just print cash the next 3-5 years. But if you want to see if the AI trade is over, look at what AWS just agreed to with Nvidia or go listen to their earnings call. Nvidia is finally seeing their margins drop in part due to HBM4 costs, but they're also raising prices on Rubin by 15%. With regard to AMD... I just don't have a good feel anymore. It went up... 5-6X when I sold, so I was happy there. I've been in Nvidia a lot longer and I've had about 10 different price targets where I was going to get out, but they just keep just growing. I think people are drastically underestimating the long term impact NVDA will have on the economy. That said, as soon as I hear an earnings report where AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, SPCX slow their CapEx, I may choose to exit. I'm not particularly worried about Anthropic given their run rate, but OpenAI is a bit more concerning. I don't think that'll be enough to sink the market though. I'm also looking at Nvidia A100 and I believe it was CRWV that just licensed Ampere(which came out in 2020) for 100M through 2029. That's not proving a shorter valuation on GPUs like Burry has claimed, that's proving the exact opposite(as well as numerous other examples of renting out Ampere or Hopper GPUs, but that's the clearest example).

yourgirl696969

I dunno man. Memory is gonna be needed more and more. Especially HBM. Big 3 are the only ones in that race and they’re signing tons of LTAs. Once macros chill out, I’d be shocked if memory doesn’t get a rerating in their forward PE. Thinking this is the peak of the cycle is delusional. SNDK ceo said they expect mid teens revenue growth 2028-2030 and they’re not even in play for HBM lol micron m, SKHY and Samsung are crazy well positioned. Just my opinion though

GlobalResolution77

Each Rubin GPU uses 288 GB of HBM4 memory to support agentic AI and large context window. Memory accounts for 25% to 30% of the system's total bill of materials

mayorolivia

Memory is gonna be 10%+ tomorrow. Nvidia CFO said HBM prices are significantly higher than they expected so have revised gross margin guidance.

Expensive-Exam-5088

I'm an American. I know how long the US forces have been with ROK, and I know they are not a colonial or occupying force, at least not today. I also know that Korean sentiment toward the US military presence and alliance is different depending on your political identity and region. However, China and the North are your problem now, see the [Donroe Doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donroe_Doctrine). This is not just a Trump thing, it is bipartisan US foreign policy now. Korean leadership needed to get their shit straight 4-5 years ago and reduce US dependency, but kept digging deeper into the US market. Now it's too late, Korea cannot break the addiction without destroying the economy. The US is going to start producing DDR5 DRAM domestically in 2 years. China is making their own DDR5 now, and within 2 years their own HBM. Korea lost 3 EU deals. Europe then roped Korea into an anti-Israel bloc, quickly abandoned Korea, and chose a NATO ally for the $100B Hanhwa deal. South America and Africa do not have comparable buying power, and do not ban automotive imports from China like the US does, which benefits Korea. America is in trouble with its massive debt, but it's still largely a domestic consumption economy. What is going to happen to Korea's exports..?

imrickjamesbioch

NVDA raising prices by 15%, HBM is sold out for the year and folks think AI is slowing down? Problem with NVDA is regardless of their beat, insiders will make some bullshit reason to tank the stock so it can squeeze all the call option bag holders out if their money.

A_Flying_Narwhal

Nvidia is trimming memory because it can’t source enough HBM4E in time, not because it needs less. It actually boosts \*total\* demand: AI companies running models on lower-memory chips, still need to deploy more chips ultimately, and I don’t think SNDK / MU / Samsung will do themselves a disservice on pricing, as the whole ecosystem boosts pricing— some of it being locked in, some of it not. Stock has already fallen on this stale news— and likewise, SNDK makes NAND, not HBM. Still a degen bet with a 10-bagger setup, no doubt there.

IlIllIlllIlIl

Ah ok, you're ignorant. I can try to help. There's training in research, but training is research, like RL post-training "a good enough model that can do most programming" suggests you're not a programmer in a major tech company. It's clear that: 1) the future is long-running agents running over development, testing, security, ops, etc 2) we will get there based on the fudmentals and performance right now 3) the models aren't there yet-- probably 2-3 years Inference currently accounts for 2/3 of GPU utilization. No one has enough resources, it's not cheap, and currently SOTA infrastructure is getting more complex, not less: ASICs, larger dies, watercooled DCs, larger caches for larger context windows -> HBM demand and new architectures, and on and on. To say nothing of the software side: agent orchestration, data isolation, backfeeding for training, alignment, stability, and on

lee1026

Eh? HBM is part of the GPU card. You can’t destroy the card and (usefully) get the memory for something else.

Traditional-Chip8339

yes, "this time is different" is always somewhat risky. However the long term contracts for HBM make me thing there is something to that. At least the cycle on the high end HBM should be much longer than usual in my opinion.

Affectionate_Fly7659

NVDA earnings will be final nail in the coffin for memory bols. HBM efficiency and optimisation along with 15% margin reduction

15xorbust

Goes to show you how little you know about datacenters. HPC is high-performance compute. The lifeblood of datacenters. HBM is high bandwidth memory. APLD is not a memory company. It leases datacenters to hyperscalers who bring their own GPUs. APLD does not sell compute or memory. Learn a little more about the market before you throw rocks. As for bags, I hold no bags in the stocks I wrote about here. I only buy when there’s a sell off when everyone else is running away. I bought my NBIS shares between $181 and $185, my APLD shares less than $26. My SLS shares at less tha. $8, starting a $5. Just bought about 700 more APLD shares today in the $26 range because that’s historically low. Nice try. Next time, do you research and get your facts straight and this way you will not embarrass yourself. Associating HBM with APLD? Come on now. It ain’t MU or SKHY.

Apprehensive_Seat_61

Can't even write HBM correctly 😂 nice bags 

Funny-Sprinkles-5674

[BREAKING: Memory prices to ease following Nvidia plan to build in house HBM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ) Memory is done for lol

Unable_Plane1948

The concentration rhyme is real: one exporter holding up the index is a household-wealth problem. The product rhyme is not. HBM is a shortage with two or three qualified suppliers, so the failure is a 70% earnings air-pocket, not the category disappearing.

Eagerbeaver98

No, this is the dumb part of wallstreetbets lol raising prices 15% isnt the same as gross margins 15%. It could be a small gross margin increase of 1% with all of nvdas rising costs. Asml raised prices, tsmc raised prices, memory has had the most price raise and HBM3 is vital for gpus to function. Especially in vera rubin

cultoftheclave

The main reason that NVDA dominates AI spend is primarily inertia due to their proprietary software stack that surrounds their hardware, commonly referred to as CUDA even though it encompasses a bit more than that. This advantage exists over AMD not because AMD makes slower GPUs, or silicon that is less suited to AI workloads, but because developer convenience has consolidated around Nvidia's CUDA stack and translating that into the ROCM stack that AMD uses has been a big source of friction when sourcing AMD as an AI alternative. But the AI coding assistants furnished, ironically, in large part with NVDA silicon have attacked and eroded the impedance mismatc between CUDA and ROCM, undermining the primary mode by which NVDA has maintained its dominance as an AI silicon solution. and this is just for the general purpose GPU based inference decode market, which is a substantial fraction of the total AI silicon market. AMD has just partnered with CBRS - who have a huge boat in the form of dinner plate sized chips that wrap all of the compute and a good chunk of the memory (bypassing the HBM bottleneck) necessary for LLM inference, and they smoke the shit out of anything NVDA has at this task, starting at 10 to 15 times faster with a whole bunch of headroom to grow beyond that (actually a recent refresh of the CBRS CS-4 system has just doubled performance on the exact same silicon).

Alert_Win359

better places to invest in AI than Nvidia. The bottleneck is not at GPUs. It’s CPU and HBM.

Which_Cost8015

The buyback is meaningful, but one nuance matters. SK Hynix recently issued 17.79M new shares for the U.S. listing, and 10 U.S. ADSs represent one Korean common share. The new buyback covers about 24.07M shares, or 3.3% of shares outstanding. So the bigger thesis for me isn’t the $29B headline. It’s whether HBM cash generation stays strong enough to fund massive capacity investment while still returning 50%+ of FCF to shareholders. That’s what could drive the rerating.

AlvinLiao0729

The concentration comparison is interesting but the underlying business structure is pretty different. Ericsson was selling telecom equipment into a buildout where the end customers were themselves overleveraged — carriers were borrowing to buy gear, and when the music stopped both the buyer and the seller collapsed. SK Hynix is selling HBM into hyperscaler capex funded by companies generating hundreds of billions in free cash flow. Meta and Microsoft alone are spending $120B+ this year on infrastructure, and they're paying with operating cash, not debt-fueled carrier economics. The other piece is that Ericsson had real competition the whole time — Nokia, Nortel, Lucent were all selling comparable equipment. SK Hynix controls around 58% of HBM production and the packaging step is physically bottlenecked through a handful of fabs. That's not something a competitor can replicate in 18 months the way a telecom equipment line could.

LeMAD

The rest of semiconductors no, but for HBM, China is expected to catch up around 2028. For DRAM is basically already done.

ap1618

>Employees getting rich on HBM is the whole point of the AI trade. Not even sure what this means

FartPolluter

He said to think about it like Charlie and the Chocolate factory. Willy Wonka is AI ofc and the umpah loompahs are frontier models, Charlie is the user, and Charlie's dad is... um... HBM4 memory chips? I think the fat kid is meant to Jensen Huang or maybe Burry and I think Cathie Woods sells you the chocolate bars at the start? TBH I wasnt listening.

Negative_Song_6362

CXMT is just developing samples of HBM3 (three generations behind SK Hynix and Micron). They are still struggling to even make these three generation versions. It'll definitely be cheap tho

Silly_Revolution3056

Calling stock bonuses “further dilution” while ignoring the giant buyback is peak WSB analysis. Net share count is going down, not up. Employees getting rich on HBM is the whole point of the AI trade.

AlvinLiao0729

The buyback gets the headline but the real signal is what they're doing with the other half of the cash. SK Hynix just broke ground on a $3.87B packaging fab in Indiana and approved a ₩19T facility in Cheongju — both specifically for HBM packaging. Right now their memory stacks ship to TSMC for the 2.5D integration step, and TSMC controls the queue. Building their own packaging means SK Hynix stops being a component supplier waiting in line and starts controlling the full product. The $29B buyback tells you they think the HBM margin structure holds long enough to fund both at the same time.

PassableForAWombat

Subcontracting out R&D when you cut your R&D is defintely a choice. Their Ironwood cluster for HBM is impressive, but following Tim Cook's method for fostering in house innovation seems kinda weak needing to reabsorb matured products

hirschimwald

P/E is only half of the story. The tech leaders in cHBM: Samsung and Hynix In HBM5: Samsung and Hynix In HBF: Sandisk and Hynix In 2028/2029 Hynix will be able to offer a complete customized tiered memory solution to all hyperscalers with ASICs or pursuing ASICs in the future (xAI, Anthropic). No more dependancy on Nvidia. Pure pricing power, because of a customized integrated solution based on a solid tech advantage. Chinese memory is three generations behind and not closing the gap, they struggle to compete in China.

x7_omega

Everspin (MRAM) product line has nothing that AI story needs in volume, nothing critical. No DRAM, no HBM, no NAND. They are a regular electronics components company, more interested in auto industry than anything else - not a hypable story. So they could do a decent spike, riding the great AI rush, but it didn't hold. They are not "overlooked", they are just a company that makes regular things - stock did nothing at all till late 2025, which is normal for such companies. Unless SpaceX buys them out for change from their cantina, there is no reason for stock to spike again.

zakkair

Read CXMTs capacity. By end of 2026 they will have roughly the same output as Micron. Put that into perspective. There’s so much capacity coming online, the HBM market will be the only saviour for SK Hynix. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-flash-memory-maker-ymtc-031148750.html

Expensive-Exam-5088

u/RemindMeBot  2 years "CXMT HBM production”

Expensive-Exam-5088

u/RemindMeBot !remindme 2 years "CXMT HBM production status"

Expensive-Exam-5088

!remindme "2 years" CXMT HBM status

Magnusg

I need you to go ahead and research how they are pursuing EUV. They have a machine it's the size of a fricken warehouse it's completely different technology and 30% as reliable. And they literally have 1. Just... Do the bare minimum research. Meanwhile our memory manufacturing facilities house 10-100 higher precision higher yield EUV with much greater capabilities. Cxmt is not even pursuing HBM. Do research dude. Easiest sector to gain some knowledge on.

AlvinLiao0729

The margin story everyone focuses on is HBM pricing power, but the structural reason it holds is one layer deeper. HBM isn't just constrained by DRAM wafers — it's constrained by advanced packaging. SK Hynix makes the memory stacks, but the 2.5D integration step runs through TSMC's CoWoS, which is sold out through 2027 with Nvidia taking the majority of capacity. Even if all three memory makers added wafer starts tomorrow, the packaging queue doesn't move faster. That's the real reason those take-or-pay contracts exist — customers aren't just locking in memory, they're locking in a slot in the packaging line. The margin compresses when packaging capacity catches up, not when DRAM supply does.

turribledood

If you have absolutely no idea about the technology advancements and manufacturing intensity behind HBM/HBF versus commodity DRAM/NAND like what China is only just now dipping their toes into then that probably sounds like a smart take. But your very same argument China would have made their own TSMC years ago, what, are they stupid???

QuadzillaStrider

You simply _cannot_ "poach" the ability to manufacture HBM.

QuadzillaStrider

CXMT is _not_ going to be able to do HBM anytime soon, likely within the next 5 years. Until they can, they're no threat to SKHY, Micron, or Samsung wrt memory.

Expensive-Exam-5088

CXMT should not have had LPDDR5 for another 4-5 years. They got it fast because they poached talent and stole IP from Samsung and SK Hynix. From that perspective, it's illogical to not expect them to have HBM in 2 years.

plumpypenguin

\> Cathie Wood is steering clear of memory stocks as the AI boom drives demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), betting instead that technologies from Cerebras Systems (CBRS) and Groq can reduce the industry's dependence on the costly chips. memory bols are safe

liuqiu_rangers

>Nanya   Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha Bait used to be believable. And I thought p eople who found out what HBM is this year shilling for CXMT was bad enough

Tallwhitedude123

This is common argument I hear. That PE is based on a historic shortage of HBM causes prices to spike to highs never seen before. In order for the PE or forward PEs to hold you’re essentially assuming that HBM shortage and prices always stay high and never moderate back to normal. That’s unlikely in my opinion

mattyhtown

The only thing that’s changed is all the hyperscalers reported -FCF, kospi has been wild. The yen is… something and now china has a rival chip maker in cmtx that people can throw money at. The Sk Hynix crowd had to take a little volume from micron too. If they didn’t have it in gdrs or in Korea. But ya i agree except that the new open Chinese models are so impressive and so efficient that the future HBM demand could be in for a small set back. But probably not. More efficient models just leads to more people using the models . Back to jevons paradox

Winter_Body4794

128g of HBM DDR5?

Spac55

$NVDA , one NVDA GPU need 8 HBM from $MU for Agentic AI applications $MU enjoy 2-3 Trillion next 12-18 month

Consistent_Panda5891

Sure, inference is free lol, you need all the infraestructure... Now they have mostly Nvidia B2 for 200k, still is one payment which over 1k users you save a lot of $ anually to both Anthropic or Claude.... But in few years they obviously will buy that infraestructure to chyna. Nanya technologies propiertary HBM replacement mass production will certainly helps

liuqiu_rangers

Enough for what? To keep the won up? Yes I think so, especially in the short to medium term. You can make an argument that the Korean economy could be in big trouble in the long run spanning decades due to bad demographics but the present math is in very strong favor. South Korea is expected to top the OECD in both GDP growth and current account surplus this year and it's only expected to pick up next year. To give you an idea of how insane the current numbers are, South Korea's trade surplus this year is projected to north of 300 billion dollars, which is the second highest in the world behind only China (who are expected to have a trillion dollar surplus but have over 40 times the population) and amounts to 6000 dollars per citizen. There are no real alternatives to HBM, with even CXMT offering their non-HBM memory at prices higher than Samsung. Samsung, SK, and other chaebols  are investing trillions of dollars into the country which shows they too have massive domestic confidence, and they only employ a small fraction of the country's labor force for all the sheer amount of economic value they provide. So yeah, I do think the won will vastly strengthen over the next few years. Although that's different than Korean retail investors being convinced of it.

cultoftheclave

guess which semi doesn't need or use HBM and still 15x smokes the performance of the best chips NVDA has?

Unhappy_Swordfish494

Anyone else invested in COPPER? TGB or HBM

SirPanic12

They can still up their margins even further by shifting floor space from dram to HBM

TreGet234

HBM in theory is stronger moat but sndk simply has lower market cap. Also NAND somehow seems to be in a bigger shortage than ram.

SpiderWil

Not too good as in "sentiment not too good" the fundamentals are still there. When STX released their earning on July 28, it sets up a ridiculous benchmark for WDC. And so when WDC released their earning on 8/5, it failed short of the benchmark STX set up and WDC tanked 10%. Then it tanked even harder like 5% afterward. MU is in a different business, HBM. WDC/STX NAND/HDD. If I have to bet money, I bet on SKHY and MU. So it's not fundamentals, it's all sentiments right now which explains the kangaroo market

Dani_Bolsa

Yeah, but the market usually prices the \*direction\* of the cycle before the contracts roll off. If MU is getting 8-12 quarters of great bookings and then Nvidia starts shaving HBM content per GPU, that can hit the forward multiple hard even if revenue is still fine near term. That's the part I'd worry about more than the current backlog, honestly.

Beginning-Fig-9089

HBM is ultra-fast but limited in capacity and expensive, while standard SSDs have massive capacity but are too slow for real-time AI processing. HBF acts as an intermediate storage and memory tier sitting directly between HBM and traditional solid-state drives.

curiousgeorgeasks

Micron, Samsung, SK sell directly to the companies that integrate the memory module into a finished component, not to the ultimate owner of the device. For **HBM**, the main direct buyers are companies like **NVIDIA and AMD**, which package the memory with their GPUs and then sell these products into servers purchased by end users (Microsoft, **Google**, Meta, Amazon, etc). Technically, these end users also often make their own TPUs, so they do purchase HBM, but at a negligible volume. For **ordinary DRAM**, the main buyers are **device and system manufacturers** (Apple, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Xiaomi, BBK, etc). In this category, **Apple** is probably the single largest global customer, given the enormous volume of memory it buys for iPhones, Macs, and other devices that occupy the premium market class. Google may purchase from CXMT, but they hardly make a dent. If CXMT cannot secure large volume orders, they’ll have to cut margins to sell to smaller customers, never accruING the profits to then compete in the next CapEx cycle against Micron, Samsung, SK. Securing a massive order from Apple can basically ensure that they’re flush with cash to compete. That’s what Apple has consistently done, primarily supporting Chinese/Taiwanese manufacturers to develop and compete at against established companies. It’s hard to understate just how much cash Apple moves around in this industry.

Consistent_Panda5891

Yep, energy grid is constrained. There is just no fix rather than push for renewables and a lot of land area, but with this administration is tough tho. Chinese already won AI race. USA can't do nothing against. Next year when they flood market of cheap memory, 6x speed per chip location HBM replacement of Nanya technologies both Korean and MU gonna sink

SupportMedium9487

is HBF bearish for MU? i know its not replacing HBM its just gonna act as another layer but does it lessen the demand for hbm?

Celticsmoneyline

The SK Hynix video CNBC did is so sick. HBM doesn't look like a commodity to me. Those clean rooms are super scientific https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JiyJejo-e0&t=766s&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D

Educational_Salt7147

Don't forget about zHBM chips Samsung announced last week. It will be 8X faster then HBM5.

Educational_Salt7147

Demand for Ai is growing at 100s fold every few years. HBM alone isn't adequate to meet Ai Demand next 5 years. Next phase is HBF. Then is 4 years it will change to zHBM memory chips. Which is 8 times faster then HBM5 chips. SAMSUNG is currently setting up roadmap for HBM chips next 10 years. Ai party just started

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

SanDisk's Investor Day key highlights: 1. Multi‑year NBM contracts with guaranteed volumes (structural demand, not cyclical. 2. AI inference → KV cache explosion → structurally higher NAND intensity 3. Two-dimensional scaling (CBA) breaks the historical node-migration cost cycle 4. High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) emerging as an HBM alternative (remember we dont have enough HBM to go around) 5. Roadmap to 128TB → 256TB → 512TB → 1PB SSDs (non-cyclical scaling) 6. Structural financial model: 80% gross margins, 75% operating margins 7. AI-driven TAM growth: high-teens to 29% CAGR through 2028 8. Structural customer behavior: hyperscalers signing multi-year agreements 9. AI inference token proliferation → permanent uplift in storage intensity 10. Industry-wide shift: NAND replacing DRAM/HBM in certain AI workloads (Again, HBM limited so we need alternatives) It's a lot to take in and why it may be a slow path towards light bulb moment for retail investors.

ChangeNOW_Community

HBM might be the quietest way to play the AI infrastructure boom until you look at the numbers

flicter22

Memory is cyclical in a way pure AI infrastructure stocks aren't. DRAM pricing is driven by supply decisions from Samsung/Hynix/Micron independent of AI demand signals, so even when HBM is tight, commodity DRAM can lag hard. The market seems to be pricing them as two different things in the same stock: HBM premium multiple for the AI allocation, old-school cyclical multiple for the rest of the business. Until supply discipline tightens further or AI demand expands into bandwidth-hungry inference workloads (which drives HBM proportionally more), the gap can persist. I've been watching the Samsung capex and Hynix capacity announcements pretty closely — those supply-side headlines are the real catalyst drivers here more than AI narrative momentum. Easy to miss if you're not tracking news in real time.