HBM

Open_Pollution_8038

I’m not a technical trader but there has been like 4 FUD news cycles in the last 3 years about impending doom from Chinese competitor in AI and none of that shit lasted longer than a few weeks. There is no Chinese incoming competition for MU. Nobody is buying HBM and then sending it to an advanced packager for it to be stapled onto advanced US chips. China doesn’t even have the capability to make advanced HBM anyways.

cryptopolymath

By the time they figure out HBM4, US and Korean manufacturers will be shipping HBM5, DDR6 and next gen 3D DRAM architectures (2029+)

confusedp

If the current price holds, pe will go even lower. HBM supply is not going to catch up to demand for at least 6-8 years, this means they have fully loaded factory churning for that long.

NervouslyRight

I'd be careful about transferring the entire Micron thesis to Sandisk. HBM demand is a big part of the Micron narrative, while NAND pricing and enterprise SSD demand are much more relevant for SNDK. I follow semiconductor price reactions through Moon as well but two companies benefiting from AI infrastructure doesn't mean their earnings drivers are identical.

B1g_C4p1T4l

The phone angle is the demand-side mirror of the same capacity fight. HBM for AI accelerators pays so much more per wafer that the big memory makers keep shifting lines away from commodity DRAM/NAND that phones actually buy. TrendForce/IDC have been writing about that squeeze for months — memory as a share of phone BOM jumping hard, ASPs up, shipment forecasts cut. Worth separating two different bets though: Micron/SK Hynix/Samsung are the ones selling the scarce memory. TSMC (earnings out today: another record quarter, HPC ~68% of revenue vs smartphones ~21%) is the foundry side of AI, not the DRAM shortage itself. Same boom, different bottleneck. The mega long-dated HBM TAM forecasts in the post are useful as direction, but I'd treat the absolute dollar figures as very model-dependent.

kmouratidis

DDR6, HBM5, PCIe 6.0... all three will become available by the time the "tight supply" eases up... in ~2028. Yeah, memory is not going anywhere this decade, even with CXMT ramp up (which we knew was a thing for a while). I would love some cheap DRAM/GDDR/HBM for my homelab, but I just don't see it.

moorhound

Sipping Nikka Days (good, but shoulda got Elijah Craig Toasted Barrel). The backend of this crash is due to the revelation of AI model compression methods turning the whole idea of open weight, low RAM, device-side inference into a reality. The US AI sphere, which was betting on closed model, HBM RAM intensive, datacenter-based cloud streaming inference being the only feasible method, is about to get fucked.

Thisispaartaaa

Thought the chinese memory thing did not apply to HBM….which is the big potatoe with AI….just saying

Abject-Departure8722

Well when a journalist from Barrons can write an article on a Chinese HBM chip maker CXMT having better memory chips can tank the semiconductor and AI stocks makes you wonder if he was short SMH or DRAM. One article and one trillion damage so far…can I sue Barrons? Smh

Slight-Hat5102

I will say this. Micron is nowhere near its peak like some have suggested. The entire tech sector is down right now and it’s not unlikely for even some of the best companies to follow suit. It’s just noise. Supply is still extremely crunched. China is nowhere near HBM4. Micron will be fine.

Sllyce

Is HBM a commodity?

freefall_junkie

Idk honestly we’ll just to wait and see how everything falls but hosting 8bit precision flash models with only \~700w is insanely cheap. The same model hosted on HBM would be something like 2.4Kw (8x rtx 6000 pros) with the caveat that it would also be \~5x faster decode. It’s hard to really do token economics without knowing what the price of these cards are going to be but even in the ballpark of $20k for the 480Gb variant it would be competitive enough to undercut cloud rates and make a generous profit selling low latency, high concurrency inference to regional businesses. Take this all with a grain of salt as I’m just an autist with the pipe dream to operate a small datacenter (1 really nice rack lol) but from where I’m standing these cards enable something like that to be economically viable

virtual_adam

You’re basically explaining it to yourself Right now MU is printing money but the expectations are that in a few years the market can be flooded with HBM It is not an NVDA story where they continue to have secret sauce no one can beat for a decade

Solid-Season9984

Micron and SanDisk are burning billions trying to stack 300+ layers without their drills melting, while HBM packaging yields are literally turning silicon into expensive paperweights. Meanwhile, China's YMTC bypassed US tool bans with Xtacking to hit parity, and CXMT is ramping up low-cost DRAM and domestic packaging to flood the market. Once Beijing's state-subsidized supply taps turn on, pricing power goes to zero and your calls are heading straight behind Wendy's.

financiallythriving

**SK Hynix Delays HBM4 Equipment Orders** A Korean outlet reported that some of SK hynix’s HBM4 back-end equipment orders, planned for the second half of this year, may slip into next year.

timmeh1705

I don't think it's going to be a threat to the mainstream chipmakers like Nvidia (and maybe, just maybe AMD can elevate themselves into the same room). What you need to imagine is the availability of Huawei Ascend chips which China domestic models are going to be trained on (rather than for pure inference) with domestic HBM. Sure they are stuck 2-3 generations behind with far lower yields due to a reliance on DUV, but you'd bet on China doing something creative to get the parts for high NA EUV put together in the next couple of years

Ok-Parfait-9856

I’m abundantly aware about branding modules, bot. And no, CXMT hasn’t surpassed Samsung. You have to be a bot or literally retarded. Can CXMT make HBM4? GDDR7? DDR5-9600MTs? No it can’t. CXMT can make average speed consumer ddr5. That’s a sliver of the current market. They don’t have EUV lithography so they won’t be advancing much further.

snowfightther

No. The AI trend is still valid. The *price* is taking a rest. Neither of those deletes GPU demand, cloud backlog, or hyperscaler capex. It deletes the part of the price that assumed a straight line. I don’t start with “is the boom over.” I run the same five checks I use on every name: 1. Revenue still growing every quarter 2. Operating margin high / losses under control 3. Dilution not eating the slice 4. Management that guides and delivers 5. Backlog or customers that explain the *next* quarter — orders have to become cash. PowerPoint cannot pay interest. Growth has to digest a high print. That is not bearish. That is how the next leg is earned. Price high, not “too high” if the backlog keeps converting. Wait. Let it rest. Semiconductor continues. Korea memory is the more fragile sleeve of the same boom. HBM is not the same as “all DRAM forever.” If CXMT actually ships competitive server parts, Samsung/Hynix multiple compresses even while NVIDIA’s customers are still building. That is rotation inside the trade, not the trade dying. What would make me change my mind: a quarter where hyperscaler capex stops showing up as *billed* cloud/GPU revenue, guidance cuts, or dilution/losses replacing margin.

DavidBergerson

Yes, that is what I said. Their data in their ecosystem is their moat. They can, in essence, lock out other AI systems and force you to use theirs. But to say that a LLM itself is a moat, no. It does not require that much other than power and gpus. In theory, if power were limited, someone could come and take all the power; then there is a moat. That moat is what you are currently seeing with the memory companies. Effectively, only 3 companies make memory; they have limited production, and they chose to push almost everything to HBM, effectively destroying the consumer market. What is the result of that? Musk has said he will build his own fab to make memory for his own companies. This is econ 301 :) Create a high-margin product, and other people will come in and copy it.

Think_Orange_1593

lol, based on Huawei's AI chip roadmap, CXMT is shipping HBM3e next year and hbm4 by 2028. CXMT's 4F is an improvement to current 6F dram cell architecture, beating SK and Samsung by 1 year. 4F require advanced hybrid bonding. Huawei's logic folding Kirin 9050Pro SOC also requires advanced hybrid bonding. This shows Chinese semi tools and fab companies are quite advanced in hybrid bonding and 3D chips, equal to what TSMC, SK and Samsung can do. And hybrid bonding is fundamental to HBM. But I agree CXMT will not materially affect Mu's earnings in the next 3 years because of 1) CXMT new volume will be fully taken by domestic Chinese industries, 2) unlike conventional wisdom Chinese companies will sell at lower prices, CXMT is pricing the same as international players, even higher, they like to make money too, 3) demand of US based companies still far outstrip supply in the next 2-3 years, and 4) US government protectionism. A reasonable guess is China will have production EUV machines by 2031. After that, no one can estimate the supply and margins. But I would argue the memory industry will maintain healthy margins going forward.

Samjabr

I'm tellin ya'll right now, this Chinese company memory story will end up being a mega nothingburger. It's going to take years to hit the level of tech needed to even start to attempt HBM. Never mind that it will take 10+ years to even replicate ASML tech. And that's assuming all the other Co's stand still. We mooning after CPI tomorrow. Get em while they're hot!

Beginning-Fig-9089

Next GEN HBM - Designed by TEMU

Thisispaartaaa

Koreans freaked out about CXMT announcement. In reality, it's a nothingburger....has absolutely nothing to do with HBM...something something memory....anyways, NOTHINGBURGER....BUYING OPPORTUNITY

Ok-Parfait-9856

China makes HBM? GDDR? They can barely make ddr5 and you think they make 10% of the worlds memory?

CaffeinatedT

If we go down the stack through AI Tools > Frontier Lab > Cloud Provider > Data Center > Nvidia > HBM Manufacturers. Someone is getting fucked hard if the majority of the compute demand isn’t revenue producing when subsidies stop. Nvidia and HBM manufacturers have already got their money so they’ll probably be fine.

music_is_gud

Obviously not. I bought MU at 400 and sold at various points between 800-1k. I don't think it will go to 2k any time soon like everyone says. Easy money has already been made. That being said, it may move like a snail moving forward tho. The HBM demand is still very strong

WhereDaStonksBro

Mem stocks aren't equal, everyone including CXMT are trying to pump out HBM for commerical use. Meanwhile I would guess the consumer market has 2 years of pent up demand that could grow to 3 or 4 as things age.

AmazingSugar1

not entirely as there is no true replacement for HBM, yet

beIIe-and-sebastian

This is like HBM3E, whilst the western memory fabs are transitioning to the much faster HBM4, and those have much higher margins too. Also we saw that Apple was denied the ability to use Chinese RAM, I imagine the US will refuse to allow American companies to use Chinese RAM in their data centres.

Wuberg4lyfe

>When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined. We saw this with lithium batteries and solar, for example. >SpaceX is a rare counter-example, where its mass to orbit is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the rest of the world, BUT China now does a majority of non-SpaceX mass to orbit. SpaceX is an anomaly in the matrix. >Maybe RAM will be different, but RAM was a low margin commodity only ~3 years ago. LP5 and LP6 are designed to a common standard that China seems to be solving fast. >Newer HBM architectures and things like an SRAM layer below logic and 3D stacking RAM on top of logic while finding a way to keep the logic cooled will be harder to solve. - Elon Musk SELL

ThirtyFiveK

This is brutal. But SKHY full-port memory is compressed investors are hesitant, and HBM supply is restricted. Even the more common name semis AI chip names with decent multiples get squeezed with this backdrop maybe MU as a yolo even if SKHY is possibly the better or more dominant name for Q4 but damn this call option was insane. I’m not even going to ask what the thought process was because you’re dealing with enough. This was literally worse odds than gambling. Don’t bet the last half of your capital on a put. Close the terminal. For real. Smh.

asria

Wake me up, when they'll consider making own HBM

VexObserver

“AI boom” is doing a lot of work here, the real money printer is Samsung selling the memory and HBM infrastructure everyone suddenly needs to build the AI future. Gold rush rule #1: sometimes the safest fortune is made selling the shovels, not digging for gold.

filwu

The memory-vs-AI-software distinction matters: demand for HBM/DRAM used in AI servers can lift a memory supplier without showing that it captures value from AI models or cloud services. To judge whether the spending is durable, I’d want the article’s breakdown of HBM/DRAM contribution, customer concentration, and capex/depreciation alongside evidence of server utilization. The screenshot here only shows the headline—does the Reuters piece break those drivers out?

rudolf_de_Leeuw

Not the same trade to me: HBM is locked in with multi-year contracts at agreed prices, while NAND is still mostly priced on contract and spot terms, so SNDK benefits from tightness but stays much more exposed to the price cycle. On the Oct 29 report I'd watch NAND pricing guidance and enterprise SSD mix more than anything tied to Micron's HBM story.

Signal_Pace_7968

One way to check how the market sees it: look at what SNDK did on the day after Micron reported. If SNDK moved about as much as MU on that day, traders are treating it as the same trade, whatever the product difference. If it barely moved, the HBM story isn’t being priced into it. Then on Oct 29 you’ll see the other direction. If MU barely reacts to SNDK’s numbers, that tells you the link is mostly one way.

Jean_Jones_666

the "pascal's wager" makes all of those ruminations moot - if we need 100x more memory - it doesn't matter it's a commodity, or that chinese can step in, but yes, if we want to stay closer to the ground - then sure those are risks, having said that you poorly supported this argument: \-HBM is not a commodity at all \-DRAM absorption is going to go off the charts BY HBM, in America and the west \-and yes we ain't gonna start uptting chinese stuff in our datacenters margins will go down after we have expanded capacity. That's slower than you'd think, even for this "commodity", and even then - at first the entire extra capacity will get absorbed too, if we'll truly need as much memory as EVERYONE IS SAYING (and have been right for a while now, as models continue going off the charts with capabilities)

Known_Grocery4434

The at home robots will use more HBM than exists in the universe today. Safe multi year bet. 

segfaulting

Your bet is more a bet against chinese memory gaining market share than it is against memory demand waning. I would not bet against china, we have seen them make every single industry cheaper and I don't see why DRAM/HBM will be different a couple more years down the line.

Rabitai_Trades

I would not treat them as the same trade. Micron CEO said memory and storage look tighter in 2027 and 2028 than this year, and more than 75 percent of Micron 2027 output is already committed. Sandisk is NAND, not HBM, so you only get the broader shortage story, not the HBM backlog people keep quoting for Micron. Fine if the bull case is just that NAND stays tight through 2028. That is a different bet than riding HBM contracts.

scramjetmode

# Micron has demonstrated sustainably to investors that when after market manipulations like yesterday’s its price sustains a key level such as, in our case now, 1,000,, it bounces back up a few days later very violently. Stay patient to collect indecent amount of gains. No other stock with these fundamentals and such little cyclicality (in HBM).🤌

Rocket233Man

Earnings are great. Memory pricing is still ripping, HBM is eating capacity, sell-side is bullish. All true.

MikeCheck_CE

They are, that's why the stock went up in the first place.... HDD is the cheapest "storage"... But it's not "memory" like DRAM/HBM

MikeCheck_CE

Because WDC is doing nothing special and competition is already increasing on HDDs. The technology is old, there is no moat like HBM manufacturers.

iceollie

The HBM pricing point actually looks pretty important here. Recent forecasts are for another very large jump in HBM pricing next year. But that cuts both ways for Samsung: great for the memory business, while the same rising memory costs squeeze phones and other devices. So the question isn’t really whether AI demand is strong anymore, it’s how much of that pricing power actually drops through to group margins once the other divisions absorb the higher costs.

Mother_Soup1391

Honestly think SK Hynix will see a modest bump—maybe 3‑4x lift—because they have less HBM focus and more capacity. Their margins won’t explode like Samsung’s now, so the gap between them could actually widen instead of close.

Appropriate_Top_5274

Goldman Sachs expects Samsung’s HBM revenue to explode from roughly $20 billion in 2026 to $74 billion in 2027 and that is 274% growth in a single year, with HBM rising from only 8% to 19% of Samsung’s total DRAM revenue.

JustBrowsinAndVibin

New note came out today that HBM prices are expected to double again next year. Demand is severely outpacing their ability to scale up supply.

scramjetmode

# What’s there cyclical about HBM? Until 2030 nothing at all. Micron will go up. Much higher.

scramjetmode

# Latest recommendation on Micron: BUY - USD 3,000 per ordinary share expected in 12 months. Major incidental factor is buyback and a new expected rerating when the marker realises there is no cyclicality around HBM. 🐺

Midget_Molester10

which is absurd because apparently to Wall street hedgies hard drives are the same thing as NAND and HBM / DRAM LOL

mayorolivia

Man you are regarded. The supply of GPU/CPU/HBM chips is limited. You can see this in all the earnings and forecasts of the fab and equipment producers. Lisa saying this means they will get ADDITIONAL allocation from namely TSMC, as well as the memory providers (she also mentions Foxconn). The way it works is AMD gets a ton of demand from customers. AMD comes to TSMC, memory companies, and says “we want more allocation.” Those guys then look at all their customers and decide how to split up their allocations based on how much money the designers are willing to pony up, plus other factors such as how much money they think they’ll spend in the future, etc. This link is old but demonstrates the point I’m making: https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP250107CZ TLDR: Increased capacity doesn’t mean that supply of chips and memory is increasing significantly. It means AMD has negotiated to get more allocation because they’re getting more orders from customers.

fartificial_degen

baggie said what? so you are telling me, Citadel unwinding the cheap shares they acquired, Goldman increasing their put to common shares ratio by 58 in the last quarter, 70% of the workforce being ready to go on strike, CFO saying they gave a nice meaty bonus but it turning out to be rejected by the workers for a permanent 15% cut like SKHynix and Samsung had to do for their employees has nothing to do with it? what about all the cost of construction where they won't see any production benefits for the next year or more in the US? huh...did you know Intel will be working with SKHnix on HBM production in the US? gee, wonder if the government has any stake in Intel. I got no stake here, I entered at 180 last year, sold all of it at the top \~1200, just enjoying the mega IQ bagholders try to convince each other to hold lol. stop shilling your bullshit positions on others. if you believe in your thesis, you'd just stfu, but you are here to just pass the bag on other regards.

Confident-Mistake400

AMD customers can’t switch to competitors easily when Micron customers can. There is no moat nothing for Micron. If one day Samsung decides to sell HBM for less, Micron has no choice but cut the price to stay competitive.

ritzk9

Umm...who invented HBM?

mayorolivia

And Micron doesn’t have patents? People don’t understand how hard it is to make HBM.

Upstairs_Whole_580

EVERY other time I've bought calls, or leaps(only ever leaps) I've held for less than 1 month. NVDA, MSFT were at 163 and 350 earlier this year. I bought 200 and 202 contracts at 215 and 500. In one month(almost exactly) it was at 210 and 480 and I sold. Just... took the winner. Same with shorts on WLMT and COST in Feb of '24. 3 weeks, sold. A couple other examples, but I don't do this much. But SKHY should hit 300 by the time those first set expire and I think it could go earlier. It's bigger than Micron, their price caps are off. They're selling almost 3X as much HBM4 to NVDA for Rubin and the COST is about 2.7X as much... and they are responsible for about 55-60% of the HBM4 share. PLUS, 2027 and 2028 being the largest memory shortages in history, unlike MU, THEY can still raise their price for peak pricing. I also think it's going to become less cyclical and it deserves a forward PE of at least 10-12. If it traded at JUST 12X Forward, it's 484. So I don't need some heroic move to get there. Also, I'm not using any leverage.

scramjetmode

# After the market is done shaking out Micron, the setup for a generational rerating is sitting in plain sight. The fundamentals are extraordinary: structurally tighter supply, unprecedented earnings power, record margins, and an HBM business that looks far less cyclical than legacy memory. If the market is willing to pay obscene forward multiples for Advanced Money Destroyer, at some point it will have to recognize what Micron is delivering: a level of profitability and margin expansion the company and the market has never seen before. 🐺

TreGet234

China can easily make memory chips if they can up production. Only HBM has a moat...

kexportstars

He dodged it because nobody in memory can realistically guide three years out without getting burned by the cycle. What makes this cycle structurally different for now is the wafer cannibalization from HBM. Producing one bit of HBM3e/HBM4 eats roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DDR5. As long as hyperscalers lock up SK Hynix and Micron cleanroom capacity for AI stacks, legacy DRAM supply stays artificially constrained, which props up conventional ASPs. But once Samsung resolves its HBM qualification bottlenecks and both Korean giants ramp up next-gen lines like Pyeongtaek P4 and Cheongju M15X, supply elasticity will test pricing discipline quickly. Visibility into 2026 is plausible; pretending to see into 2028 is pure fiction.

cdttedgreqdh

I think most people lack understanding about why they decreasing RAM/HBM per server is actually not a threat. They don‘t decrease it because they want to save costs, they do so because there is simply not enough availableY more memory is insanely valuable for how AI compute works. They would use more if they could.

Every_Way_1011

yeah you get the supply‑tight spot, but another angle is the power/thermal envelope. HBM‑filled GPUs can hit 400+W just for memory, which a rack can’t handle. So data‑center builders will cut memory per unit to stay within power budgets, even if prices are high. The result is earlier strain on the price/volume trade‑off you noted.

Effective_Mistake712

the thing most people overlook is that the 26% price‑protected slice comes from contracts that only lock price when the customer hits a certain volume threshold – it’s not a blanket wholesale lock. as soon as they dip below that or hit a cash‑claim clause, the rest floats to market. that’s what the CEO was hinting at when he said customers cut memory per unit – demand’s shifting to cheaper stores or higher‑density GPUs, so price can still sputter even if supply stays tight. the upside for Micron is that the HBM repricing in early 2024 is already nudging gross margin toward 88%, but the next 12‑18 months will really test whether that holds. keep an eye on the December 16 filing for the next DRAM price move.

Important-Win-5370

The memory crunch is real, every data center build is fighting for same HBM allocation and it creates weird bottlenecks nobody planned for. If NVIDIA is already compromising on spec before the chip even ships, that tells you demand is still far ahead of supply, which is bullish for the whole stack but painful if you picked the wrong layer. I think the photonics angle is where the smarter money rotates, because it solves a structural problem instead of just riding scarcity. Short term it will be choppy, but the trade is getting more surgical and less "buy anything with AI in the name."

Level10Retard

Less memory per server doesn't mean much from my understanding. It fully depends on the supply capabilities of HBM memory vs GPU compute chips. Nvidia was planning 288GB per GPU, but the memory supply is so constrained that if they did 288, they would be constraining themselves by the memory supply issues rather than by their own chip supply. So the result is less memory per GPU (thus server as well) but more GPUs (thus more servers). This is just industry being efficient. Anything else would be weird. My only conclusion is that more fiber will be needed to connect more servers.

LongAppointment5976

The last post of wall st engine is real? That will be bullish for memory stocks this week? **JPMorgan sees memory supply remaining tight through 2028, with customer order discussions already extending into 2031. Its estimates point to: • HBM bit demand growth: +63% • Non-HBM server DRAM: +37% • CY27 HBM blended ASP: +54% YoY JPM also believes Micron’s >35% revenue coverage under long-term supply agreements through 2030 could prove conservative, noting Asian memory peers have LTAs covering 50%+ of capacity.

FollowingGlobal7369

You really think ppl are gonna read about HBM and DRAM and why memory is cyclical? 😭 I bet most memory bols don’t even know it’s DRAM that’s carrying them due to supposedly “unlimited” HBM demand. But… DRAM is not that hard of a game

SpiderWil

I woudln't b surprised the chinese are actively stealing wdc stx toshiba technology to make HDD right now, just like what they are doing to HBM DRAM NAND

Cav829

It's kind of caught up in the big memory plunge since it's in a bunch of ETFs with other memory plays. It's the most resilient of all of them though thanks to HBM.

music_is_gud

Yea, but Asians can outbuild US companies far quicker. Also HBM4/5's patent moat is much more than HDD's

music_is_gud

HDD box doesn't have as much of a moat as HBM though. It's a real risk

Panthera__Tigris

Only 3 companies on the planet can make HBM. It will take many many years for anyone else to catch up, especially with export controls.

Double-Minimum-9048

SKHY makes HBM memory which is 40,000 times faster than the hard drives WDC/STX make, thats why there unaffected by the toshiba news.

Unlikely-Tax1480

my understanding is NAND is better. Less storage, but still a lot compared to DRAM/HBM, and reasonably quick

Administrative-Ant75

Oh my god was literally thinking about AXTI just a few hours ago, insane timing. I really don't know enough about the engineering wise stuff here (wish IA had article here lol), but I can't see them paying off current valuation. Would've liked to see some insane price hikes already tbh... If optics / AI becomes waaaay more important in the future, China has a great negotiating lever like we used with ASML exports to just shut of GaN and InP exports out of china. Don't see why they don't use it tbh, at least to get HBM supply

ManonFire1224

HDD does absolutely nothing for HBM and very very little for NAND.

SouthernIsland1884

it really boils down to the difference between commodity‑memory DRAM/NAND and the high‑bandwidth memory that’s driving AI GPUs. microns and sandisk rely on the spot market, so they’re still subject to the classic boom‑and‑bust cycle once fab output starts catching up, even if that cycle is stretched out by long‑term contracts. on the other hand nvda’s value comes from its ecosystem lock‑in and the fact that every new iso‑grade GPU needs its own custom HBM, so the demand curve is much less elastic. a 70/30 split tilts heavily toward the opportunistic, cyc‑bound side—if your conviction is that AI demand keeps rising, you might want a larger tilt toward nvda or tsmc while still keeping a safety net in microns for the inevitable supply‑tight squeeze.

scramjetmode

PANICAN! Yes, you. HBM eats wafer capacity, AI GPUs keep needing more memory, and only a few suppliers can scale it. This isn’t your grandpa’s DRAM cycle. See you at 2,000. Place your bets responsibly. https://preview.redd.it/pf7dhx7tzvsh1.jpeg?width=1254&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19237c4d7be8e3c0c9cb1a9f9a1e075988a3ef43

option-trader

Not sure if you've been following, but capacity is maxed this year. So, it's all pricing power. Competition in HBM is an oligopoly between MU, SKHY, and Samsung. So, there's no comp. in their high margins.

Fauster

I think it's groundhog day for MU, again, and the trailing PE compression will again be extreme. But, now there's a min EPS figure in place, which is a lot less than expectations, that's just the cash in escrow. Importantly, it was spelled out on the call that HBM would be more convex going forward and that was where the focus was shifting. Both SKHY and MU made the same moves towards HBM, indicating that DRAM and NAND were smaller bottlenecks. In this opaque world, actions speak louder than words, but the words were pretty darn clear in this call. The market is pricing a go down to the Winchestor, have a warm pint, wait for agents and caches that live in memory to blow over scenario, but a new price levels where SCA commitments put an in-place bottom-line on revenues that helps keep debt off the books of NVDA et. al, but is real cash sitting in escrow. tl;dr: long MU SKHY, probable boring future buyback aristocrats, like the MAG6 used to be.

TheDapperNovella

Storage plays are tricky right now, both are getting squeezed in different ways even if the long-term demand is there. With SK Hynix you're betting hard on HBM dominance but also Korean market drama, while WD is knee-deep in that messy split-up and NAND pricing whiplash. If you want something that fits that MU vibe of steady underlying demand without the sky-high P/E, maybe peek at some of the less flashy semi equipment names. They've been quietly printing while everyone chases the chip designers.

itsalwayscalls

Honestly many feelings only. No actual changed data. I'm an AI bull at heart but MU has stalled out and I don't know why after so many attempts at $1100. MU deserves a rerate for HBM. Which is basically custom silicon. But meanwhile AVGO isnt getting a retrate beyond 20 to 30x forward despite AI revenue 2xing next year and again the next. My theory: the market doesnt know what to do with this new breed of company. All of these major $1t AI companies are the newest NVDAs. Theyre doomed to be locked into reasonable PEs because funds dont know where to put them. They aren't paying dividends and they aren't buying shares (tho NVDA is doing more). Instead they are securing loans and supporting the ecosystem. Not bad stuff on their own, but there isn't an ETF for stocks that support other stocks in their industry that are essentially becoming their own ETF. There are only ETFs for momentum, dividends, or growth. So this new breed of stock will languish. Purgatory for stocks. MU isn't where NVDA or AVGO is. But may soon be Sorry for the non answer. But im onto something.

terrybmw335

I'm holding it until they release their new HBM sneakers.

Diguojigood

What dump? Algorithm doesn't know what to do with it. Big money will move it tomorrow at open. I'm betting it goes up. No cracks in earnings. These stocks peak usually 6 month before earnings show cracks. But we really don't see cracks in sight yet. AI just needs too much memory and custom ones that is HBM.

aaj15

There are only 3 players in advanced HBM and DDR5/6. So I would say it's kind of unique

scramjetmode

MU just printed $54.2B revenue at 87% GM, guided $61.5B next quarter, says Q1 is the margin floor, supply stays tight through 2028, and most 2027 HBM is already locked at higher prices. Market calls peak cycle; I call $MU still wildly underpriced. See you at 2,000. Don’t be a panican.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

$MU Working with $NVDA to develop custom HBM SCAs now extended to 2031.

Magnusg

the govt will lift those restrictions but there's enough consumer demand cxmt cant supply yet with their failure rates and longer manufacturing processes. they also will likely never be in the HBM space. so micron could convert their consumer sector over in the future to increase production at higher value without finishing a new facility.

Magnusg

Tell me you don't understand HBM without telling me you don't understand HBM.

Ambitious_Snow840

Have to remember, stocks people think are cyclical PEAK at 6x - 8x forward PE. So, if they still expect $160 EPS next year, then we should expect $960 - $1280. Unless they really raise EPS. Remember, if they add volume of units pricing strength may drop as well, so additional volume doesn't immediately apply to EPS. This is a tough stock to value. 25x forward PE for HBM, but 8x for everything else? What would that be? My guess is $1100 simply because that's what the market is giving them.

silicon_replacement

# How Much Growth is Due to Price Increases? According to slide 23 and slide 34 of the presentation, **price increases (Average Selling Price / ASP expansion) accounted for the overwhelming majority of Micron's sequential revenue growth in Q4 FY26**, far outpacing bit shipment volume growth: |**Segment**|**Total Q/Q Revenue Growth**|**Volume Growth (Bit Shipments)**|**Price Growth (ASP Increase)**|**Primary Driver of Growth**| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**DRAM** (73% of revenue)|**+27%**|Mid-single digits (\~**5%**)|High-teens (\~**18%–19%**)|**\~75% to 80%** of growth was from ASP increases| |**NAND** (26% of revenue)|**+42%**|**\~10%**|**\~30%**|**\~72%** of growth was from ASP increases| # Key Takeaways on Pricing Contribution * **DRAM:** While unit shipments grew modestly at mid-single digits, prices jumped in the high-teens, meaning higher pricing contributed roughly **three to four times more** to DRAM's $8.44 billion sequential revenue gain than volume did. * **NAND:** Out of the 42% sequential increase, volume accounted for $(1 + 0.10) - 1 = 10\\%$, while pricing added an additional \~30% multiplicative uplift $((1 + 0.10) \\times (1 + 0.30) \\approx 1.43)$. * **Mobile & Client (MCBU):** In the client and mobile segment, shipments actually **declined** quarter-over-quarter. Therefore, **more than 100% of MCBU's 14% sequential revenue growth** came entirely from higher pricing and mix. * **Forward Pricing Power:** Micron disclosed that it has already contracted the vast majority of its calendar 2027 HBM supply with "significant price increases year over year," and 75% of its $32 billion in SCA customer commitments have established pricing bands or floor mechanisms.

cultoftheclave

you aren't slumming the HBM play hard enough, when RMBS isn't on the menu

Hot-Measurement-119

Calling it now, MU will have a great report but HBM4 margins will be a little off and the demand will be slightly weaker due to true demand being overstated due to the over ordering that happens during shortages. MU goes brrrrrr.

supercrossed

Look. I don't know how many times I have to explain this to you people. Micron earnings? Priced in. HBM sold out through 2027? Priced in. Some guy on CNBC saying "memory is a cyclical business" for the 400th time? Priced in. The cycle ending? Priced in. The cycle NOT ending? Also priced in. Both at the same time, somehow? You guessed it. You think you're the first genius to notice AI needs memory? Every quant in Connecticut has a server rack doing nothing but reading Micron press releases with their eyes closed. The beat is priced in. The CFO clearing his throat before the Q&A is priced in. The analyst who asks a three-part question that's actually seven questions is priced in. "But bro, gross margins are gonna expand." Priced in. "But bro, DRAM pricing." Priced in. "But bro, I bought weekly calls with my rent money." Priced in, and your landlord already knows. "But bro, forward P/E is only like 9." Yeah, and it's been "only like 9" right before the last three times it fell 40%. The market knows it's a cheap multiple on peak earnings. The cheapness is priced in. The suspicion about the cheapness is priced in. You're not finding a hidden value play, you're finding the exact number every Bloomberg terminal on earth has had highlighted in yellow for six months. And guidance? Please. They could guide revenue to the moon and some analyst will say "we were hoping for the moon plus a little bit." The raise is priced in. The raise above the raise is priced in. The only guidance that moves this stock is if management walks on stage and guides "we're done with cycles forever, trust us," and even then it'll dip 3% on "execution concerns." Here's what's going to happen: they beat on every line, raise guidance, say the letters "H-B-M" 47 times, and the stock drops 6% after hours because the whisper number was a number only God and three hedge funds heard. Then it recovers by Friday. Also priced in. The only thing NOT priced in is your IV crush. That one's personal. That one's just for you. Positions: 3 MU 10/2 calls I bought at the absolute top of IV like a true regard. See you at Wendy's.

rando9999912

HBM4 is different than DRAM

la_lunamoon

okay sure HBM is cool and everyone is talking about bandwidth like its the new oil or whatever BUT JPM saying 2k?? bro are you drunk? i mean yeah maybe we get some tech hype pump but 2000 per share is literally insane. feels like they want us to buy high so they can exit clean. i dont care if hbm3e is magic, that target is a joke. sus af. 🤡

cultoftheclave

I think they still get a royalty for every chip of ram that is sold with their tech baked in, which I believe is almost all of the stuff that is sold as HBM. But maybe some of that IP has expired, or chipmakers have figured out how to implement work alike solutions, or something. But as RMBS it's not, as far as I know, an actual fab I guess they don't get much from the current shortage economics. You think they would at least catch a contact high from it, but no. they just sit around treading water in a range, with a little bit of uptrend due to the whole lift of the market. but nothing anywhere like the explosive meme chip tickers. still there apparently still in business and must be selling something to somebody, maybe they're an acquisition target at some point?

cultoftheclave

meanwhile RMBS, the OG guys who invented HBM tech, get to sit all this out and watch from the sidelines

Embarrassed-Bank2835

For MU, I think the stronger bull case is broader than just HBM. HBM gets the attention, but if AI keeps pulling DRAM capacity toward higher-value products, that can also tighten supply and support pricing/margins in conventional DRAM. Data center memory demand in general is the bigger story. SNDK is a little different. The bull case there looks more like NAND pricing + mix improving at the same time that data center SSD demand is becoming a much bigger part of the business. AI does create real storage demand, especially as inference/context storage grows, but I’d still view SNDK as more exposed to the NAND cycle than MU is to HBM alone. So for me: MU = HBM plus tighter DRAM economics. SNDK = stronger NAND cycle plus a shift toward higher-value data center storage. The main risk for both is the same old memory problem though — if supply ramps too aggressively, pricing can turn on you pretty fast.

Federal-Watch

Today or long-term? I’m in SKHY personally. I’m expecting a pull-back to 160-170 range in October, but expect it to be +250 by June 27. I’m mainly interested combination of HBM, HBF, HBS, hence SKHY. I haven’t looked at MU as much because they were later to HBM, but SNDK is interesting