HBM

CD274

Deep seek 4.0 like 50x more efficient per token than other LLMs and has interesting algorithm advances, but also uses up way more tokens per user. Basically China is shifting away from HBM use to normal DDR5 use

missedalmostallofit

New board looks like a Bloomberg terminal got hit by 0DTEs, but the trade I'd actually keep watching is MU over MRVL. DRAM being green while Korea puked is the tell for me: the market still wants memory exposure, and MU has the cleaner HBM/DRAM story without needing MRVL-to-350 nonsense by lunch. Risk is that MU is still a cycle stock and Friday showed how fast semis can rug you, so I'd rather play shares or longer-dated calls than chase weeklies. MU is the one I'd keep on screen today. [https://catsofws.com/](https://catsofws.com/)

FartPolluter

Absolute joke that PSKY merger with WBD over CNN gets so much attention when NVDA announce their locking up 70% of HBM4 capacity. Shows where the priorities are for your average ivy league linkedin douche

Unable_Sandwich1509

Yeah this tracks. If Jensen’s talking multi year shortage and everyone’s chasing the same HBM and NAND, then MU and SNDK dips are basically gift-wrapped entries. Market still acting like this is a normal cycle while AI is literally eating every chip on the planet 😂

SoCallMeDeaconBlues1

For anyone who doesn't know, SK group is a HUGE conglomerate, just like Samsung is. Fun fact, SK also operates the largest number of gas stations in Korea. 66% of KOSPI is comprised of just those two companies. The partnership goes well beyond just SK telecom. It also extends into SK Hynix, which is the HBM technology global leader. A major portion of these nVidia AI products are using HBM. HBM DRAM differs from regular DRAM in some very important ways. There's really only 3 players: Samsung, SK, and Micron, and none of them can keep up with the demand for the stuff. Look for SK's next gen HBM to start hitting the streets within the next couple quarters. SK Hynix is in ramp for it now and is spending CAPEX for this specifically; SK's NextGen HBM utilizes some new methods to deal with thermal loads.

No-Paint-5726

True. But its more a yield problem. They already proved they can produce it and just have to improve yields. Theyre probably going to mass produce by December. Their IPO was contingent on them able to make HBM3 and scale.

LazyDazyFazy

They don't mass produce it. They're only developing and testing it rn. Western competitors have already made HBM3, HBM3e, HBM4 and are targeting HBM4e.

No-Paint-5726

They make HBM3 which is already faster than whats in your 5090

aka0007

The RAM MU makes for AI (HBM) is a more critical product than the GPUs TSMC makes for NVIDIA as memory constrains the number of GPUs that can be made. With HBM4 and in 2-3 years HBM5 this is only getting worse. There is a reason why for the last year or so an increasing share of the growth in AI CAPEX has been going to memory companies and not NVIDIA. Yes, I did the work here. MU is going to see its profitability increase significantly this year and continuing for several years. MU to $1,600 when it reports earnings.

LazyDazyFazy

CXMT does not make HBM.

rm_rf_all_files

Forward guidance was disappointing because if you have been keeping up with the news, Google is trying a new way to save cost by cheating on AVGO with Mediatek and not only that also with Marvell. AVGO cannot overcharge for HBM anymore and now Google can buy directly from the source. Still Google cannot dump AVGO entirely because their networking is legit.

No-Put2311

Average day in the ME, tell me if one of them starts manufacturing HBM

Calm_Voice_7903

For Agentic AI, each $NVDA GPU needs, 8 HBM memory from $MU Match NVDA revenue going forward, pretty close match to MU revenue, next 3 years. Means $MU market cap heading 2-3 Trillion, as earnings spike every quarter. Just go and check, they sold out next 3-4 quarters

trackdaybruh

Jensen isn't wrong though, HBM is in high demand along with having a ridiculously low yield which makes it scarce on top of the high demand. SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung are the only three companies in the world that can produce the latest version of the HBM. Heck, they can even ramp up production and even expand the fab to produce more, but they will still not produce enough to meet the demand. Not even close.

_Fibbles_

True, though we've only seen Blackwell with GDDR7, HBM3e and LPDDR5X so far. The latter two would never appear on a consumer graphics card. I don't think a switch to GDDR6X would be straightforward because it uses different PAM signalling to GDDR7. I suppose redesigning the memory controller might be worth it if they can get the GDDR6X cheap enough though.

Temporary_Peak1943

KOSPI a year and a half back. Thesis was partly HBM but also a bet on Samsung sorting out its fab game and Hyundai / Kia (IMO best car companies outside of China). After investing continued to question my decision as there were no signs of momentum and index historicallynas traded at depressed multiples. But once it broke it surged. Just incredible that an entire country's index couldn't triple in a year.

aka0007

At least into 2031 if not longer. Got to figure minimally 2-3 years from when HBM5 comes out (with Feynmann) before demand can ease up. With the need to load larger models into memory for inference it is very possible that demand for the latest memory will continue even longer. FYI, if you compare the revenues of MU and NVDA the past year or so it is obvious that of each additional dollar spent on AI CAPEX the memory companies are capturing a larger and larger share of that and NVDA is getting a smaller share of it.

iLov3musk

Google just committed $11 billion per year to SpaceX for 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs. October 2026 through June 2029. 110,000 GPUs need HBM. CPUs need DRAM. Storage needs NAND. Hoarding GPU and HBM equals revenue.

iLov3musk

You could not be more wrong. AI demand is incomprehensible at this point. To the point where buying GPUs directly from NVDA is not enough. Building custom TPUs with HBM is not enough. So now you borrow someone else's GPU fleet for three years at $11 billion per year. Google wants to win the AI race badly enough to rent compute from a rocket company. Analysts are not even close to understanding what is coming in the next 5 years.

iLov3musk

AI demand is incomprehensible at this point. To the point where buying GPUs directly from NVDA is not enough. Building custom TPUs with HBM is not enough. So now you borrow someone else's GPU fleet for three years at $11 billion per year. Google wants to win the AI race badly enough to rent compute from a rocket company. Analysts are not even close to understanding what is coming in the next 5 years.

SiliconNexus_Quant

​Spot on. You are one of the few people looking at the actual physical flow instead of panicking over rate hikes. ​Our data tracker perfectly maps out your thesis. Hyperscaler CapEx is currently tracking at $132B, and that capital is flowing like a firehose straight into the exact bottlenecks you mentioned: TSMC advanced packaging (+35% YoY load) and HBM (now eating up 28% of all DRAM supply allocation). ​The physical supply chain is screaming "structural shortage," but market algos are having a tantrum over macro data. It's a massive mispricing. Let them shake out the weak hands. The bottleneck trade hasn't even peaked yet.

pm_me_your_pay_slips

The memory for AI buildout is not primarily HBM. It is DRAM, the same you’d get for consumer PCs. AI inference needs a lot of this to serve all the context needed when doing long running tasks. If you wonder why your computer starts feeling slow after a long session with Claude Code or Codex, you’ll see why. AI datacenters need so much DRAM.

CoolEnergy581

HBM and other products like that have less uses compared to the broad expertises that tsmc has in high end chip making, maybe that explains it?

Candid_Payment_4094

You have a point, but the moat for HBM manufacturers is immense and the HBM bottleneck will remain for a while. Good to own both

Isometric_exercises

Ai analysis of my post: Verification of Key Claims Nvidia contracts with SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron through 2030: Largely accurate. Nvidia has certified all three for next-gen HBM4 memory for its Vera Rubin AI platform (deliveries starting ~Q3 2026). SK Hynix leads in share (~60-70%), followed by Samsung (~25-30%), with Micron in the mix. Long-term supply deals and AI demand support multi-year commitments; the sector is shifting toward more stable (though not always ultra-long) contracts amid shortages. Hynix doubling production by 2030: Confirmed. SK Hynix plans to nearly double DRAM wafer capacity (from ~550k to ~1M wafers/month) by 2030-2031, centered on the Yongin cluster. Chairman has noted AI-driven shortages could persist until 2030, with heavy capex planned. Korean analyst predicting doubling in coming months: Plausible but forward-looking/hyped. Analysts (e.g., Nomura) have targets implying significant upside for SK Hynix (potentially doubling) and Samsung (~20%+). Stocks have already run hard (SK Hynix and Micron joined the $1T+ club), so "doubling from here" would be aggressive but aligns with bullish AI memory forecasts. Samsung -10% drop on Friday: Recent volatility fits. Korean markets saw pullbacks amid broader chip sector moves, elections/political noise, and profit-taking after massive 2025-2026 rallies. The post attributes it to local factors (elections with ballot friction, general pullback) rather than US jobs data — this seems reasonable, as Korea's market is heavily weighted to Samsung/SK Hynix and has been driven by AI/semiconductor optimism.

torokunai

I joke that the jobs report was real "late-stage capitalism" stuff. Job growth in local government, health care / social assistance, and accommodation services isn't growth-oriented. Also Broadcom earnings weren't that hot. Also the ten-year moving to 4% in 2022 just murdered the high-growth valuations (you've got to discount future earnings on that rate), and rates now are threatening to move from low 4s to high 4s. In short, unless you make HBM modules, life sucks.

TheBlackBaron

Kospi didn't really have anything to do with the Japan jobs report. Samsung and Hynix make up nearly half the market cap, and they specifically were dumping over fears that Chinese memory is going to flood the market and replace demand for their HBM (it won't, that fundamentally misunderstands what makes HBM different) and that hyperscalers are developing architectures that won't need as much HBM (much more plausible). Plus the Kospi is more volatile than a cocaine squirrel in regular markets. If that was all it was then semis and DRAM would have take a dump today but everything else would be fine. Overreaction to the jobs report is what caused a -2% SPY day.

SiliconNexus_Quant

March 2020 was a global economic shutdown. Today is just algos throwing a tantrum over macro noise. ​The physical supply chain (especially upstream equipment and HBM) remains structurally tight. TSMC packaging load and memory CAPEX didn't magically drop 10% overnight. ​Selling a structural supercycle because of a one-day sentiment flush is exactly how retail transfers wealth to Wall Street. Thanks for the discount.

thepandemicbabe

Honestly today is a gift if you’ve been waiting to start a position. Down 12% on no company-specific news..this is pure macro contagion from a strong jobs report and Broadcom earnings panic. Micron’s actual business hasn’t changed one bit. Here’s what I’m watching and why I’m not worried…. i’m adding to my position. Why Memory pricing: Morgan Stanley just raised their target to $1,050 citing persistent DRAM supply constraints lasting 2-3 years. There’s no quick fix to the shortage. That’s locked in pricing power. AI demand : Jensen Huang literally confirmed TODAY that Micron received HBM4 sample certification for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform. When the CEO of Nvidia publicly validates your product in the middle of it, getting crushed it definitely keeps the spirits up. Earnings track record: Micron guides conservatively and beats massively. Last quarter they beat EPS by 38%. The quarter before that, 22%. They’ve already signaled at a JPMorgan conference that their outlook has STRENGTHENED since last earnings. June 24 is 19 days away. Valuation — 45x PE sounds rich until you remember earnings grew nearly 1000% last year and forward PE drops to under 10x on FY2027 estimates. The S&P 500 trades at 21x with nowhere near this growth. The bear case is cyclicality which is a valid concern historically but this is not a normal memory cycle. It’s an AI super cycle with incredible memory supply constraints that Morgan Stanley says we have no quickfix for several years. Today’s price is where people will wish they bought in six months from now. Not investment advice :-)

colemusic1

There’s some genuine strategies to this, if you’re actually curious. Semiconductor stocks / ETF’s are clearly booming. That’s as clear as day right now, AI is in enormous demand with a supply shock. This is why SNDK for example has gone literally 45x in a year. Same with MU lately (memory / HBM has been super in demand). As for your actual question? A solid little idea is to actually just jump onto something like [SMH’s holdings](https://www.vaneck.com/offshore/en/investments/semiconductor-etf-smh/holdings/), and check the weighting of them all, especially the very lowest weighting. Those with the lowest weighting can either be enormous winners where you end up getting in early before it soars off the ground, or it perhaps doesn’t move that well. SOXX is another great ETF where you can apply the same strat. But even the biggest majors like MU, AMD, MRVL etc are still absolutely worth buying right now. Personally I prefer just buying SOXX since I’d rather a small cluster of semi stocks that are all moving while not having to pick which stock is today’s or tomorrow’s winner

Prnce_Chrmin

Thx for your explanations. I agree on the 50/50 thing, thats how I have been able to retire in 2017 at just 17. Also always keep 50/50 cash and in an asset. So you can always go both ways depending on what it does. I am close to $150m now. You still investing in the drone companies because you talk about them a lot. Why did you decide to just go in ETFs and not buy some real estate and why not just take 20% of your capital and re-do your exact same strategy? > Pretty much all I do is follow technology closely. I don’t have a job I just literally run with what I know and I’m interested in. If a business model seems good, if the company passes the smell test I will start buying to get some skin in the game and then I will start binge watching any single piece of content or news I can find. A lot comes from seeing stocks pop up in online forums that get my attention. To me it seems easy when you just pick fast growing companies, in a sector that seems like it is guaranteed to grow. Also it’s important to me that the company has some chance to get “hype” or it isn’t boring. Finding companies nobody knows about is not my thing. Well except ONDS I bout at $1.90 > > > > Most of the time it’s a simple idea for the basis of everything. Ai chips need HBM memory, so I bought micron when the PE was like 10. Drone stocks are my current fixation admittedly. The US embarrassingly has no modern military drone force and they are going to be forced to make one from scratch as fast as possible. After that it’s about picking winner from the competitors. > > > > I am dog shit at timing literally anything to the point where I might actively inverse what my gut tells me to panic sell. I barely fuck with macro events that I don’t understand. I left about 2 million on the table by selling too early or playing it safe because of some market panic news. My biggest rule that has helped me in the last year is not to just sell an entire position, but wait an hour or two and just do about half of what I think I should. > > > > Oh yeah I also dip into 2x ETFs and do well kind of swing trading them and then cycling back into the base stock.. But I only do this on the stocks that I have followed a long time and know how they tend to react.

RelevantAsparagus853

AI summary: With "tracking technology trends" as the core: focus on technology fields that you are familiar with and interested in, especially high-growth sectors (such as AI, drones, etc.). Top-down logic: First, determine whether an industry or business model "seems reliable and has growth certainty", and then select specific companies (e.g., AI chips → HBM memory → buying Micron). Test with a small position first, then conduct in-depth research: initially buy a small amount to "get on the train", and then delve into a large amount of related content and information to deepen understanding. Prefer popular and "hype-potential" companies: More inclined towards targets with buzz and popularity, rather than unpopular companies. Inspiration comes from the retail community: often discovering targets from forums or online discussions. Admit to having poor timing skills: I am not very adept at choosing the right time to buy or sell, often selling too early or being influenced by emotions. Control emotions by "selling in batches": avoid clearing your position all at once, and instead reduce your position step by step (for example, sell half first). Basically ignore macro: not too involved in macro judgments that I don't understand. "Theme rotation + betting on the winner of the race: For example, currently focusing on the military drone race, and then selecting the winner among competitors.". Assist in using leveraged ETFs for swing trading: For familiar stocks, use a 2x ETF for short-term trading, and then switch back to the underlying stock. In a nutshell: This is a growth stock investment strategy that emphasizes track logic while downplaying fundamentals, leans towards sentiment and hotspot-driven investment, and relies on personal perception and continuous tracking.

WorkingInflations

Pretty much all I do is follow technology closely. I don’t have a job I just literally run with what I know and I’m interested in. If a business model seems good, if the company passes the smell test I will start buying to get some skin in the game and then I will start binge watching any single piece of content or news I can find. A lot comes from seeing stocks pop up in online forums that get my attention. To me it seems easy when you just pick fast growing companies, in a sector that seems like it is guaranteed to grow. Also it’s important to me that the company has some chance to get “hype” or it isn’t boring. Finding companies nobody knows about is not my thing. Well except ONDS I bout at $1.90 Most of the time it’s a simple idea for the basis of everything. Ai chips need HBM memory, so I bought micron when the PE was like 10. Drone stocks are my current fixation admittedly. The US embarrassingly has no modern military drone force and they are going to be forced to make one from scratch as fast as possible. After that it’s about picking winner from the competitors. I am dog shit at timing literally anything to the point where I might actively inverse what my gut tells me to panic sell. I barely fuck with macro events that I don’t understand. I left about 2 million on the table by selling too early or playing it safe because of some market panic news. My biggest rule that has helped me in the last year is not to just sell an entire position, but wait an hour or two and just do about half of what I think I should.

mmal55

Nvidia Corp. has certified the three biggest memory chipmakers to supply their most advanced high-bandwidth products for the US company’s AI accelerators, Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang confirmed for the first time. He’s given the go-ahead for Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. to supply HBM4, an indispensable component of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform for artificial intelligence work. The trio, which between them dominate the global market for storage semiconductors used in computing, compete

ChreeKnowsBest

“Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in Seoul that Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron Technology have been qualified to supply HBM4 memory for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin AI platform”

AmazingSugar1

They don't make the HBM (high bandwidth memory) which has been the primary drivers of outsize profits due to being used as the memory for GPUs in the datacenter. They don't compete with Samsung/SK/Micron in these area, but they compete against them in non-HBM DRAM that is used in servers for CPUs. They also compete against the storage providers like Western Digital, Seagate, YMTC in the NAND space. All these stocks are run recently because of the insatiable demand for data storage in datacenter.

SangerGRBY

Odds of mango placing tariffs on SK HYNIX / Samsung HBM to force revenue into Micron (USA USA 🦅 🦅 )?

aka0007

How? The amount of memory and the advanced nature of that memory is increasing rapidly. To train and run new models you need more memory than is available and will be available. We are talking here about minimally 4 years before there is a chance of supply catching up somewhat. Very possible memory supply is constrained for the next decade or so. Even if HBM demand could possibly be met in 4 years from now the demand for memory and to utilize modern fabs will be further driven by robotics and self-driving, a market that is going to grow massively.

aka0007

The need for more RAM is accelerating faster than the need for more GPUs or CPUs. My understanding is the primary driver for new architectures like Vera Rubin and Feynmann (2028) has less to do with raw processing power but everything to do with enabling more memory bandwidth and faster memory plus lowering the amount of energy used for a unit of compute. For AI there needs to be massive increases in RAM bandwidth and manufacturing the HBM4 and soon the HBM5 memory is something only 3 companies can do. Basically... NVIDIA can only produce as many upcoming Vera Rubin chips as memory they can get. They are competing with Google, Amazon, Intel and others for buy the HBM4 memory for their AI chips. Regarding the optical interconnects... that will be a huge deal going forward but I am not clear on how that will shake up. No idea where AVGO or MRVL will end up in that regard.

CD274

For NAND it's actually controllers bottlenecking it and YMTC's third party controllers have issues there still. For HBM yeah that is much longer off, because the tools needed are blocked from export into China, both lithography and stacking

TreGet234

What worries me is chinese competition ramping up. HBM should be safe but even those profit margins could get squeezed by chinese ddr ram.

phrosenphire23

Pray tell which more competition will magically appear? AI Memory (HBMx) is highly specialized and requires significant know-how to even make. Once you make it, then you got to ensure yields are at the level that NVDA or vendors want. Just look at Samsung, who's been trying to break into HBM4 for a couple years now, but somehow always failing certification. I think they might have finally figured it out. Higher production capacity doesn't just happen with new entrants, it requires significant capex, machines that are calibrated to be within statistical limits , even then your recipe could be sh*t and your yield sub par. Even with Google's new innovation, inventory is already sold out and demand is not letting up. Google isn't just spending $185B in capex on AI build out for no reason.

Eagerbeaver98

Why are you mad at hock tan? Did you not know the market has its own agenda? Did you see microns earnings in march with a guidance of 5 p/e get sold off? Did you say fuck sanjay too?wake up dude, the market is just fraudulent man. It has nothing to do with avgos earnings which were actually really good and guidance was very sstrong. 200% yoy revenue growth expected for semis and avgo has secured their HBM until 2027 so far too via contracts.

skilliard7

I think it's too early to draw conclusions about Nvidia. For decades, Nvidia has faced minimal competition, except for AMD(which has lagged behind). With how much competition the AI boom has attracted, Nvidia is no longer a monopoly. Nearly every large tech company has been taking steps to reduce reliance on Nvidia by developing chips in-house. These are only just recently starting to roll out. Nvidia's sales have remained strong because of procurement challenges; when you can't get TSMC to produce enough of your own chips, or SK Hynix/Samsung/Micron to sell you enough HBM, your only way to meet customer demand is to buy Nvidia/AMD. So big tech and frontier AI labs are taking whatever they can get, whether its in-house chips, Nvidia, or AMD. When the compute shortage/semiconductor shortage eventually subsidies(eventually supply will catch up to demand, it's just a question of when), Nvidia will face substantial pressure to their margins. The question is not if this will happen, but when. If it happens by 2030, Nvidia is overvalued. If Compute remains constrained well into the 2030's, Nvidia's valuation may be justified.

Chuque

They will come out with chips that eliminate the need for HBM. e.g. Cerebras wafer

skilliard7

I think they made the right choice to dilute, but only because it was clear the stock is overvalued. I do think their aggressive capex is risky though. These datacenters will take years to build, and everyone is spending massive amounts. It's highly unlikely it will work out. There just won't be enough HBM capacity to satisfy orders for hardware to fill these datacenters, there won't be enough energy, and it's questionable if AI demand will grow fast enough to utilize all this capacity. Since many of these projects are multi-year commitments, there is tremendous risk of overbuilding.

CODE_HEIST

The HBM angle is real, but I would still separate theme quality from trade quality. Memory is cyclical, and that matters even when the AI demand story is strong. The question is whether margins, supply discipline, and pricing power are improving enough to justify the move. A good AI infrastructure narrative can still be a bad entry if the stock has already priced the perfect version of the story.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

$HBM

TreGet234

HBM based society.

Amazing-Ruin-4565

Who supplies all the memory and HBM chips for MSFT, Google, META, Amazon, Nvidia projects?  SAMSUNG and SK HYNIX 

steady_compounder

It is a more interesting AI infrastructure angle than some of the pure story stocks because memory actually sits closer to the physical buildout bottleneck. That said, the market knows that now, so the question is less whether the story is real and more whether the valuation already prices in a lot of that HBM upside. A good theme can still be a crowded trade.

AgathormX

The HBM dies aren't going to have any utilities for regular systems, but the dies they're using for LPDDR5X, DDR5 and DDR4? Yeah that's on the safe side. The DRAM cartel is probably going to significantly cut back production and focus on liquidating the inventory that they posses currently, massively cutting back prices while doing so. It's going to take a massive hit on their financials, almost certainly pushing them deep into the red, but it won't kill the companies.

AgathormX

Micron isn't the worrying side, neither are Samsung, SKHynix, TSMC, MediaTek, NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon or Oracle. Everyone who is either manufacturing Hardware or providing Cloud Infrastructure is doing well. It's the companies that actually have their sole business built around AI, like Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI that are the worrying part. Micron's making a shit ton of money because everyone keeps buying RAM for Data Centers, bet it LPDDR5X or HBM3/3e, just like NVIDIA is making a shit ton of money due to everyone buying H100/H200 and B200. The second OpenAI and Anthropic IPO, they're on the clock until the shares can start getting dumped in the market. Once they do, the ship sinks. These companies are not sustainable and won't be until we have significant developments that massively reduce the cost of training models and running inference on them.

Eliav_1991

\[chrome\] already running on port 9224, will attach the rtx spark + microsoft headline got the attention but the more load-bearing news today is SK Hynix committing to double wafer capacity over five years. HBM supply has been the practical ceiling on NVDA's ability to ship at scale to hyperscalers. the may 20 8-K showed $81.6B in q1 revenue and an $80B buyback authorization, which tells you the demand side is real. the Solara partnership narrative works if HBM throughput keeps up, and that constraint just got addressed. wiseek surfaced the SK Hynix capacity announcement this morning before most coverage picked it up.

Sp00ked123

Isn’t their backlog of HBM sold out for 2027?

tke248

NOK is in. **B telecom-edge shovel.** Real AI-RAN / NVIDIA angle, but not as clean as power, cooling, HBM, or optics yet. If edge AI/6G starts getting real capex, it moves up.

Jealous_Bookkeeper20

HBM packaging yields are notoriously low (often under 60%), which is why the margins look so high right now. The real bottleneck is not just wafer capacity, but the advanced packaging and stacking yield itself. Once TSMC and SK Hynix optimize the 12-high and 16-high stack yields, supply will catch up fast. Are you tracking the packaging yield improvements, or are you just looking at the aggregate revenue guidance?

Waste-War8809

Google, Amazon, etc have made ASICS like TPU and Tranium.... They did this to reduce costs associated with Nvidia charging essentially whatever they want. So while memory is different.. do not discount Ai companies doing everything they can to make models that are more memory efficient... Here is a quote I recently read. "AI companies are actively redesigning models to bypass or minimize the use of expensive High Bandwidth Memory. Because HBM accounts for nearly half the production cost of an AI chip, reducing this dependency is a major priority" Is this actually possible? I doubt its 100% possible.. but just like ASICS are being used more and more.. who knows what is coming next as far as optimizing for less expensive HBM being used.

tke248

NOK — AI-RAN / telecom edge — **B**. Real NVIDIA linkage through AI-RAN / 6G. Not an AI factory shovel like power/cooling/HBM, but it belongs in the edge-network bucket.

callebbb

AR, NXE, UUUU, LEU, for energy plays — GRRR for software / AI infra — ERO, HBM, IE, FCX, SCCO, FQVLF for copper. I’m bullish on commodities producers for grid electrification, energy production, etc, that have moats and/or large pools of potential output. Position: in with shares in all these.

Icy_Abbreviations167

If someone actually wanted to swing this specific North American supply-security theme using a small 5-10% speculative account, what specific technical breakout levels are u watching on a proven name like TECK or HBM?

tke248

BB is interesting, but I’d grade it C+ under a stricter system. QNX gives it an edge/embedded AI angle, but it’s not as clean as power, cooling, HBM, networking, servers, or semiconductor tooling. Real shovel maybe, but more indirect.

tke248

Good adds. ACMR and ONTO both fit the semiconductor tooling bucket. **ACMR = B+ hidden shovel**: wafer cleaning / wet processing / plating / advanced packaging tools. **ONTO = B+ hidden shovel**: inspection + metrology for advanced packaging, HBM, stacked DRAM, 3D bump metrology, and yield. These are exactly the “picks inside the picks” names I was looking for.

InquisitorCOC

No earning and the Fed hiking interest rate (5x from Fall 1999 to March 2000) Despite this thunderous run, $MU is still trading at less than 10 PE, and now there are rumors of HBM price going up another 2-3x in 2027. Sure the Chinese will compete aggressively in the DRAM segment, but their capacities won't arrive until 2028, and they are not present in HBMs While everyone is focused on semi these days, earning revisions for the rest of S&P 500 are going up sharply too BRK's purchase of $10B Google stock near its ATH is a strong signal imho. Greg Abel already said during this year's AM that AI is directly benefitting company's most subsidiaries

Patrick_Lawson84

CAT, TECK and HBM didn't become major operators because of geology alone. Execution and capital mattered too

ryei85

you mean the market willing to pay infinite money for HBM despite the cost of entire data center doesn't make profitability sense anymore? like no HBM = rather suicide kind of world? what's your HBM made of?

SnooHedgehogs5162

HBM prices set for sharp 2027 rise as three major memory makers target higher HBM4 contract pricing. I guess Micron PE will be now around \~5 PE https://preview.redd.it/um3gjx5btu4h1.png?width=564&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddb49f47d53ef70fcd0f3b05c98f1c7a8307d91e

pogkaku96

No. All the GPUs and HBM that are locked in for the next couple of years are not fully paid. They'll only be paid when they get delivered. I hear anthropic closes most deals by providing shares to the data center builders.

Bravadette

I think calls on copper is pretty obvious rn . HBM apparently has the highest beta.

tke248

I’m using this as a watchlist builder as much as a keynote recap. The obvious names are in the table, but the real value is probably in the second-order suppliers I missed. Who are the smaller public companies tied to Vera Rubin, HBM4, liquid cooling, networking, racks, power, optics, or AI cloud buildouts that didn’t make the list?

Snoo_30102

MU will hit 1.5k and drop sharply to 900. I already set TP at 1.2k to be safe. Its just a bubble. 2027 will face over supply issues and competition with Samsung, hynix. China is also into HBM.

Naive_Wonder7681

Finally getting some respect for being ahead in HBM market. The valuation gap with Micron was getting ridiculous - 43% discount despite Samsung leading on next-gen memory tech doesn't make much sense. That 610k target from SK Securities might be optimistic but the fundamentals are definitely there with those long-term supply agreements locking in demand.

option-trader

You're missing one piece of information. NVDA practically owns its sector. MU shares the memory sector directly with Samsung and SK Hynix. What you might see is a $5T market cap in the HBM sector, but that means only $1.667T for MU, or a price target around $1,480. And, we're still far from that point.

Alternative-Link-380

Love it, but $5K is a $5.6T cap — bigger than NVDA right now — for a company that shares HBM with Hynix and Samsung and gets cyclically nuked every few years. I'm long anyway because this is WSB and fundamentals are for cowards.

BeginningEar8070

the cpu inference can use less expensive non HBM ram. if you search for more details based on that sentence you can find quite a bit information, look up fujitsu monaka and their rapidus goals it has probably more articles with actual information over nvidia hyped and generalised articles.

luvz

1. Memory cyclicality argument originated pre-AI. Now think about how stupid it is to conflate a pre-AI product line to a post-AI product line. Not just different times, not just a different technological and economic regime, a literal unrelated product line. 2. DRAM is very heavy in the HBM triopoly, a further distancing from commodity ram and the origin of the cyclicality argument. 3. Even commodity ram isn't the same product post-AI when ram won't just be in computers or niche electronics, it'll be in every fuckin thing in your house in 10 years. That's not just big hyperscalers saying "need moar HBM." That's thousands of small and med cap product lines making smarter devices every year with varying degrees of memory needs. 4. Memory cyclicality has to do with pricing power. At the end of the day, for ram to be cyclical, there has to be so much surplus in the market that the competition is now in pricing. All 3 HBM companies are sold out in 2026. Micron is rolling out 5 year contracts and I assume the Korean ones will too or have already. The cyclicality argument literally does not apply or at least won't apply for years.

Unusual_Refuse9619

Thermal management been killing performance in those dense setups for sure. 30% reduction in thermal resistance is pretty solid improvement, especially when they can manufacture it with existing processes. Will be interesting to see how this plays out when HBM5 actually hits the market.

imrickjamesbioch

OP, not to nitpick but you bought a 11 month leap contract… Not 12 months… Jan to Dec = 11 months, vs Jan to Jan + purchase date = 12 months. I mean if you’re gonna sell now, I guess it doesn’t really matter with short term capital gains kicking in but if you held for 12+ months, LTCG kicks in and would have saved 4-12% in taxes pending what your for total income ends up. Or somewhere between 10k to 34k in taxes. 🤷🏻‍♂️ Regardless, I think only you can determine if you should sell or not. Im personally holding till after June earnings and seeing what their forecast for 2027 will be since their HBM chips are sold out for the rest of the year. Either way, congrats…

callebbb

FCX, SCCO for high quality. ERO, HBM, FQVLF, and IE for high beta. 🫡

Purple_Amount_7919

Mu wasnt obvious? Trading at a forward p/e of 4? Not only did I buy in and make it 14% of my portfolio (MUU 2x leveraged MU etf) but I also suggested it to friends and family and between all of them they bought over 30k worth, and my personal position was 38k 2x leveraged ie 76k at purchase. Needless to say, everyone is very happy with the suggestion and made a lot. This was super obvious to anyone who reviewed their books. Exploding margins up to 57% last quarter, guiding 33b revenue the following quarter and HBM sold out through 2026 and partially through 2027, it was the most obvious play in the fucking market.

missedalmostallofit

No, you're mostly seeing survivorship bias plus people posting at peak euphoria. For every MU/Dell screenshot there are a lot of people who picked the "next obvious bottleneck" too early, oversized it, or bought calls that expired before the thesis worked. The trick is not really finding the 8000% winner. It's finding a real thesis before it is consensus, sizing it so you can survive being wrong, and not turning one lucky win into permission to full-port the next random ticker. MU made sense because the memory cycle actually turned and HBM became a real bottleneck. Chasing every stock after it has already been renamed "AI infrastructure" is a different trade. If you want another shortlist for DD: [https://catsofws.com/](https://catsofws.com/)

MountainOpposite3199

I am using trademates in this is what the explicitly explained. Trademates is using enterprise APIs for their data so it goes much deeper than chatgpt or Claude. Based on the data provided, the model indicates that a significant amount of future growth and optimism has already been integrated into the current price of $971.02. According to the AI’s analysis, the following elements are currently "Priced In": 1. The "AI Memory Super-Cycle" The market has priced in a transition for Micron from a cyclical commodity chipmaker to a critical AI infrastructure provider. The stock's 952% gain from its 52-week low and +112.4% move in the last 30 days suggest that investors have already accounted for the "Memory Shortage" narrative and the high demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3E). 2. Hyper-Growth Expectations The model notes that the current valuation (Trailing P/E of 44.57) is significantly higher than peers like NVIDIA (P/E ~32x). This indicates the market is front-running a massive EPS recovery. The AI observes that investors are pricing in a path toward a $1.1 Trillion market cap by anticipating a projected jump in earnings toward the $100+ EPS level by 2027. 3. Flawless Fundamental Execution With a recent earnings surprise of 27.28% and operating margins of 48.34%, the current price assumes these high-performance metrics will not only continue but potentially expand. The model views the current price—trading just 1% below its 52-week high—as reflecting a "best-case scenario" for near-term production yields and pricing power. 4. Supply Constraint Premium The market is currently pricing in industry-wide supply discipline. Recent news regarding memory price spikes for PCs and smartphones suggests the market expects Micron to maintain its status as a "price-setter" rather than a "price-taker" through at least 2025. Model Conclusion on "Priced In" Status: The AI evaluates the current status as "HIGH" (Priced In). The model concludes that the current price is 117% above the analyst consensus of $446.88 and significantly above its own fair value assessment. This suggests that any news that is not "exceptionally positive"—such as a standard earnings beat without a massive guidance raise—could be viewed by the market as a disappointment.

pragmacrat

MU is only sold out on the HBMs for use in AI. They still produce other types of memory like for the iPhone. But due to the high margin from the HBM contracts, the companies that need regular memory have to pay enough to convince MU to make them over HBM. That is where they can squeeze out more profits.

Signal-Shoe-6670

Watch earnings, gross margins, HBM supply agreements, and long-term customer commitments. The bull case is not just earnings growth, it is a potential re-rating from a cyclical commodity-memory company to a strategic AI infrastructure supplier. HBM demand, supply shortages, fixed-price agreements, and multi-year customer commitments are creating revenue that Micron historically never had. Micron is investing heavily in additional capacity, but supply remains constrained, supporting pricing and margins. The debate is whether this is another memory cycle or a structural shift driven by AI. If earnings remain durable through 2027–2029, the current valuation may still be modest despite the stock's huge run. These are the reasons analysts have increased price targets to $1750/sh, etc recently,

AgileHornet5960

research HBF be HBM dumb fucker.

TranslatorRoyal1016

because its commodity HBM has undergone a massive shift in demand, and closed multi-year contracts ahead of 2027, 2028, as demand moves from cyclical DRAM to sustained hypergrowth as AI datacenters scale exponentially. yes, I know why it \*was\* low p/e in the past boom-bust cycles, and why it's low \*now\* has nothing to do with past cycles. apparently you don't know much about the sector

Ok-Emotion5697

I’m still holding MU for a few more months. The memory cycle is still in early recovery, and AI demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is a big tailwind for them. I’d only consider selling if: \- The DRAM/NAND spot price rally slows or reverses \- They miss their margin targets \- The broader tech/AI trade starts to weaken For now, I think there’s still upside room, so I’m riding the trend while keeping a trailing stop in place to lock in gains.

Remote-Book-8616

This is the best AMD bear case I've read. And the data backs most of it. P/E 162.64. EV/EBITDA 43.89. Bull 88, Bear 85 — nearly tied. My AI agents couldn't agree either. HOLD 59/100. Your margin compression thesis is the real issue. MI355X on TSMC N3 with premium HBM3E, sold at a discount to B200. That's a margin nightmare before ROCm even enters the conversation. The 20% TAM capture math is also right. $200B revenue to justify current valuation means flawless execution for 4 straight years in a market where Nvidia is actively defending, hyperscalers are building their own silicon, and AMD's software stack is still catching up. But here's what the bears keep missing — AMD doesn't need to beat Nvidia. They just need to be the credible alternative that Microsoft and Meta call when Nvidia can't deliver. That's a smaller TAM but a real one. MACD bearish. Trend strength only 7.1% despite 352% YTD. Momentum is fading even as price holds. Your senses might be right. The setup feels like late 2021 Nvidia — priced for a future that may arrive, just not on this timeline. https://preview.redd.it/7vrxqnxkt34h1.png?width=2880&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a2303c9725af076e10a0d7960ecff4f2321dc41

PrimaryResolve641

sounds good, MU said sold out DRAM and HBM in next year stock.

Space_Miner6

HBM is quite a moat

Amazing-Ruin-4565

Samsung just announced latest news. Samsung has released HBM4E chips for testing by Nvidia, MSFT, Google. This is potentially Big deal as a First mover for next generation HBM Chips. Samsung stocks especially preferred stocks are wacky undervalued compared to SK HYNIX 

Kitty_Katzchen

AMD literally invented HBM memory with SKhynix Calls

Such-Tie-1516

So Dell basically turned into a glorified Nvidia and HBM resale kiosk and everyone’s cheering like they invented AGI 😂 All this tells me is you buy the toll booths on the AI highway, not the dude bolting the parts into a metal box. Long NVDA / HBM / maybe AMD, use Dell as a trading vehicle when boomers chase the AI server headline.

crunchwrapsupreme4

The economic pressure to find workarounds to the structural deficit in high performance memory is immense, so if you buy it you'll just need to watch the industry closely for signs that the HBM and NAND markets are softening, it's not a set it and forget it trade.

dominic_l

2-3x but might be more than a year out. still early on the grid buildout CEG is probably better for quicker gains if youre trying to ride the current cycle. retail bagholders are still stuck on semis and HBM/memory

ReflectionFew3395

I entered Micron at 77, still holding, and will hold for another two years. HBM Memory will continue to be shortage.

Opening-Berry-6041

yo that's insane that you caught the HBM wave like that how'd you even start noticing that particular AI bottleneck before everyone else did?

Sarcasm69

HBM is currently not a commodity.

CD274

Yes but more importantly it requires machines from ASML to package and stack the layers, and those machines and servicing previous EUV machines, are under export ban to China. China is making HBM for their domestic supply through other methods, slower and less efficient and less accurate. So the HBM moat actually relies more on that export ban and the Match act if it passes. (Nand and Sandisk's profits are way likelier to be under fire sooner)

CD274

Yet the HBM accounts for most of the revenue