IE

MarsTellus13

"We" are not "running out of oil." We are approaching operational minimums, at which point prices will begin to rise precipitously and infrastructure performance issues and major price spikes may pop up with any disruption to supply. (IE, hurricanes, short-term refinery outages, etc.) To people saying "we've been two weeks away since March," no, nobody reputable has been saying that as far as I know, and I've been following this obsessively and putting my money into bets around late June/early July as crunch time. Europe warned about jet fuel shortages by early May in mid-April - then cut a ton of flights and raised imports, and that warning dissipated. Since late March or early April, trendlines have largely shown operational issues by June/July. The US's surplus is just about gone, and last week's EIA (which got drowned out by all the "deal soon for real! talk) reiterated that things are going to escalate materially in the next few weeks.

Potential_Cup6688

Liquidity in terms of deferred/guaranteed payments? Are they not marketed as "pension-like cash flow.". ?? I don't know that people think any deeper than that, but if they did then the next level of "liquidity" would be assuming your annuity is invested in something that will protect its cash flow and re-allocate asset diversity appropriately not carry a large debt that isn't balanced. IE they assume who they are investing with is balancing their own checkbook. 

callebbb

FCX, SCCO for high quality. ERO, HBM, FQVLF, and IE for high beta. 🫡

callebbb

ECG, PRIM, and a bunch of copper plays like HBM, IE, ERO, FCX, SCCO, FQVLF. Also data licensing potential re-rates, like RDDT.

callebbb

I started a copper play awhile back. I buy on dips when dollar rises sharply. FCX, SCCO, HBM, IE, ERO, and FQVLF.

chaniqqah

I don’t like Elon but it’s not a stretch to say the company with the most advanced space program would win the contract. And not that it makes it ok, but corruption at this level has been going on for decades IE Dick Chenney and Haliburtons no bid contracts during the Iraq War. Or Eisenhower and his entire cabinet owning tons of stock in United Fruit Company before they invaded Guatemala. Anger directed at individuals will never solve societies problems, we should be fighting for systematic change and dare I say take a page out of MLKs approach.

Cautious-Garlic-2198

That's not completely true. Supply side economics, IE cutting interest rates benefits borrowers, corporations and the rich, the velocity of that money is essentially 0, and even negative in some cases. All that money goes back into the corp and or rich person and is, for lack of a better term, 'stolen", from the labor class. I'm not saying that supply side econ. is not stimulative, it is, just not as long lived or as stimulative as demand side economics. Demand side economics, giving money to PEOPLE not CORPORATIONS/WEALTHY, has a velocity of 1 in that it gets spent right away and goes directly into the economy. AS money flows away from capital and into labor, they spend it, which brings on more inflation, interest rates go up, and multiples for companies go down.

LetsMoveHigher

Reddit is trash. As soon as institutions bought in they have ruined it. Reddit monitors and blocks anything the institutions want. IE they own Reddit. It was a great platform, not anymore.

titchy_boy

Why do Americans just assume it’s only oil coming through the strait and that the strait doesn’t really affect them? 25-35% of the global supply of fertiliser 9% of the global supply of aluminium (22% if you remove chinas contribution to production), helium, sulfur, bromine etc all flow through the strait… all of which are critical to the US… Even ignoring that, a toll on on roughly 25% of the global supply of oil would increase demand on other cheaper sources IE American oil and keep American oil prices inflated…

LetsMoveHigher

Space X will IPO will force retirement fund to buy it. They will be buying at yoo and then, wait for it, RUG PULL. Thus leaving the American retirement system broke. Wait for it.... The US Government will step in and PRINT BABBY PRINT to save it!!! IE 2008 all over again. Tax payer wouldn't want to bail out the banks again so the US engendered this skim so the masses wouldn't get mad because the will effectively be BAILLING THEMSELVES OUT! Force retirement plans to buy into severely overpriced IPO's..... Hence why Space X and the other "AI" company filled suit on the same day! Hurry up U.S. ...

No-Transportation843

Let me dumb this down for you NVidia says "we're going to beat last quarter by $X billion" Analysts say "NVidia probably will beat it by a bit more than that. Fair stock price is $220" People who are actually buying NVidia think "Nah they'll probably beat is by $Y billion, I think it's going to be worth $230 after earnings tomorrow so I'm going to buy a bunch since it's only $225 today" <- that's the whisper number Then it comes out, beats both guidance and the analyst's estimates, but the whisper number thought it would beat by $Y but it was less than that, so stock goes down because it doesn't meet the expectations of actual buyers IE wall st.

Greatlakes_fish

Massie is out so there are not adults left in the room. IE they are going to print.

CoughRock

not really, economy naturally expand over time. Using last 5 years growth rate as average. As long as we stop increase federal spending for the next 11 years. The economy will eventually out growth the debt. Since even it's 3-4% per year. The growth is compounding and will out pace the debt interest if spending is frozen. IE: Great britian didnt pay off its WWII war debt until in the mid 2000. But by then the economy is so much larger than the old debt that it's irrelevant and make more sense to delay pay off early. Greece is another example of freeze spending until economy outgrow it. It's not impossible. But since it require 11 years of spending freeze. Not cancel spending but just to keep spending the same, less of chance people get mad about spending freeze instead of cancel spending. That would require 3 full terms of presidency from both parties to agree to stop adding expense. Just need to wait 11 years then we will return to clinton era budget surplus. But can these congress tard resist the temptation to open the public purse string for 11 years ? that's the hard part.

Wolverine-91826

Youre 100% correct. Can I ask , do you know, does Fidelity automatically suspend the ltcg status of the shares if you sell a deep itm cc? IE does their reporting of 'long v short' take that into account? Because Fidelity is reporting my underlying as long term.

Jekarti

RKLB's Electron rocket though is not about volume, it's about specific orbit. Falcon 9 launches volume, not specific orbit. RKLB targets smaller sats that want an extremely specific orbit. IE military sats that need to see specific things. You can't really compare the two and the specific market RKLB is targeting is why it is a strong stock / company.

skilliard7

I don't see the "gym model" actually being a thing for AI companies: - OpenAI, Google, Claude all have free plan that casual users will use. You only have to pay for paid plans if you want reasoning models(IE for coding/professional use). - Gyms generally require you to sign up upfront, and then make it a pain to cancel(need to go in person during specific time to see manager who tried to guilt trip/shame you out of cancelling). With AI, at best they just hide the subscription info behind a menu. The only way I see the "gym model" working is companies that buy Claude/ChatGPT subscriptions for their entire teams regardless of if individual team members actually want/use them.

Crotean

They leapfrogged Intel in processor speed and performance for several years and are dominant in the dedicated SOC market, IE game consoles and their server chips made dramatic improvements when they started beating Intel.

dragonbits

How old are you? You may still have a long wait. I look at crsp off & on, never seemed to be "ready". Currently insiders are selling and at least in the last 3 months not buying. Even the 12 month stats are only slightly bullish. Insider trading isn't my only indicator, but when a stock is down enough relative to value, insiders buy. This metric won't work on stocks in massive uptrends, like IE: Amat, stocks at a near all time highs. Don't to a lot of that type of analysis on those stocks. Short interest is high, with \~12 days to cover. That is a net negative, while it can create a short term spike, it seldom last very long.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Apply safeguards, make sure it's regulated properly Not going to happen in the international scene. How do you propose regulating it when those without it are falling behind and it's countries backing the technology? "Hey china, please stop". It has military uses (and is being integrated into the military). At that point it becomes a national security risk. \> Maybe once the dust clears, we get all the benefit for a 1/10 of the cost and then it actually becomes truly useful, costs included. We're just not there yet. Local models are only \~18 months behind frontier ones. I can run equivalent models to cutting edge ones offered by OpenAI and anthropic on my laptop, that are less than 2 years behind. The rate at which local models are accelerating is on-par with frontier ones. For 1/10th the cost? It's going to be 1/1000th the cost in 2-3 years. Why? Well - if OpenAI / Anthropic don't either increase the value they offer (or drop the price) local models catch up. I can run it for free on my laptop. \> Meanwhile, people are literally starving turning off their refrigerators because of AI data centers. Source? I know they are causing energy prices to increase, but it's fairly negligible from my understanding. I see people complaining about water and energy usage going up. The water usage is mostly overstated. IE: The US consumes \~322 billion gallons of water per day, most for farming. A datacenter will consume \~5 million gallons per day, or 0.001% of the usage. The low hanging fruits for water is in farming (deal with the runoff - it's insane).

PaperHandsTheDip

Feeding peoples expensive. IDK where the UN comes up with their numbers (probably super optimistic to get donations). There are \~800m people living in extreme poverty. Cost to feed them is \~$3 / day (at a guess). That's $2.5b / day to end world hunger for only the most extreme cases. But if you include transportation, storage, etc - can probably double it (ballpark estimates). IE: Cost to end world hunger is \~4.5-5b / day. It exceeds a trillion per annum. Why are those estimates wrong?

yomama_yodaddy

Gambling at ATH so im expecting unprecedented overpricing of the stock market. IE we’re not done yet

te7037

$IE

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Most people want confirmation bias. IE. They didn't invest in AI so they want to read stories about how AI is going to collapse.

PaperHandsTheDip

Regulations are good - but too much is not. It introduces friction into the system (including with legitimate investments / startups / etc) - and too much regulation can actually sink new entrants. It often enables existing players to exert monopolistic behaviors which is not good for anyone. We're seeing that happen more and more everywhere... IE: See the telecom industry.

tachyonvelocity

Good luck with that, the permanent underclass is about to see just how much they're valued, IE, not valued at all. If AI is all about disintermediation, the vast majority of people's jobs are actually just being middle-men. So if you know society literally holds no value in you, since the entire economy's money is going into capex on automating away your job, you either realize this by joining the ownership class or you fade away like the coal miners before you.

RefrigeratorTasty912

If you've been following NVIDIA CEO's Keynote speeches, that is exactly where they are transitioning to. Put it in a sim until it is matured, transition to a real world + induced simulation to train it on real physics. IE make it perceive scenarios in the real world without all of the real objects/actors. This is precisely what Waabi is doing as well.

PaperHandsTheDip

well - yah. That's why you get it to write a test - and validate the output of the test. The idea is that you layer multiple agents / layers together (which individually you may have a 99.99% cofidence in). If you layer 3 of them together - it's now 99.99999%. Then - you get that layer to write tests, and run millions of iterations. The confidence grows to 99.9999999%, etc. At that point - it's the same ballpark of confidence of me asking a partner "hey, code this feature". \-- I've actually had MORE bugs come out of my partner using this flow than AI... like... significantly more. Which have resulted in FAR more losses. IE: AI is already better if used correctly.

PaperHandsTheDip

It does \*exaclty\* what you tell it to do. The problem is the agents lose context / insights after \~50-100k tokens (think words). People who don't understand how to properly prompt / utilize them basically tell it "improve this feature!" - and since it has no context it has to look / iterate. It's window gets filled with garbage and it's no longer good. It'll write bad and shiity code. A good engineer tho - will understand the limits of it- and prompt it in a way / multi-step processs which respects that. IE: I'm over 2000 commits deep (always respect context window) in less than a month. It \*works\*. Why??? Becuase - I understand the restraints and work with them. I make commits / flow work around it. It's smarter than I / does better code / work - when context window is respected. Beyond \~100k tokens - yah - it goes to shit. But that's like \*ANYONE\*. Ask some random person to memorize every detail about a book / novel / etc - 100k words - word for word. Of course they're gonna lose context!!! So - work around it. \--- I use various tools to come up with deisng docs. / track progress / goals / etc - to ensure these constraints are met...

aspenextreme03

Not OP but does a traditional IRA have the same tax advantages as a Roth? IE trade in it and as long as you don’t withdraw. Just wondering.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm using it for my production trading systems - it's fucked at how good it is / how much it has helped. The problem with prompt engineering - is it's basically a problem of union background knowledge with curiousity. You need the background knowledge to know what you are looking for. IE: If you randomly look at a CT scan - you probably have no idea WTF you're looking at (that's the background knowledge). You can probably identify a broken bone - but if there is a subtle tumor or something you'd miss that. If you didn't ask it about that - it might miss it (even if it's in the context). Anything you use it for works the exact same. **Background knowledge >> the rest.** Then - if you ask it about that specific feature / thing you saw / results you got - take it and iterate. Keep doing that over and over - results are insane.

wander9077

What I do: I have a base 70/30 portfolio (stocks/bonds). For every move 10% down from recent high I reallocate 25% of my bond portfolio to equities. So IE if it drops 10% I end up selling 25% of original bonds, if it dropped 5% more I end up selling another 12.5% of the original bond portfolio and buying equities and so on and so forth. This means I do not have a static portfolio in market declines and with bigger declines I end up with more equities on the bottom. I then contribute the maximum amount I can during non declines as soon as I make the income and attempt to roughly maintain the 70/30 portfolio (my income is not stable through the year and I make more some months than others in part due to bonuses and in part due to funding my retirement accounts (about 70K a year worth) in the first half of the year). I have not back tested this method, and im not sure by how much it beats a static 70/30 dca portfolio, but I can tell you psychologically it gives me something I think is constructive to do in any 10% or greater market decline).

prz3124

When you do figure out what Stock you're going to buy options in, what price point you looking? IE like ITM options or for example 20% over current price or multiple calls laddering upward? I've done some options but have never been successful on longs only short term less than a month before expiration.

carlos5577

Next time be a bear with bullish intentions. IE buy Oil stocks with the hopes that oil rips with the ongoing war in Iran.

LoudBrick609

Nope, like most sexual assault allegations: I generally believe the party that doesn't stand to financially benefit, IE the accused.

MotoMola

What do you guys do with your profits after you sell but don't necessarily need the money? IE: stock hits 600% in a year and you're cashing out.

MinerDon

Assume you had no debts and the bank called you up and offered to lend you $280k at 6.3% interest where you cannot walk away from the debt (IE you cannot declare bankruptcy). Would you take the loan to invest? Important note: Your investment income must be higher than 6.3% because you have to pay taxes on that income.

PaperHandsTheDip

Bit of both. Same way you prompt any agent - you outline the problem, ask it for potential solutions. I go a bit further and ask it to prove equivalence via tests and also prove it actually worked via live tests (usually just run it locally). It's very important to prompt it / direct it towards the correct problem (hand holding it part). But once i point it towards the correct problem / path -- its mostly just done automatically. \--- IE: I got it to rewrite a custom FIX handler from scratch and got it to match the performance of commercial solutions (which cost tens of thousands of dollars...). It took less than 24hours, with me hand holding it for \~8 of them.

PaperHandsTheDip

Everything. IE: one example is I got it to go thru a hotpath (called over a million times per second) and show me every cpu cycle. Then i asked it if it could reduce the cycles / overhead. I got it to show me the cost (in cpu cycles) of every operation - then got it to reduce it down / optimize it.

NoThoughtBeforePost

The general idea I think of is that a constant flow of money is going in. IE, as people make money, they will keep investing (from 401k, roth, regular brokerage, etc). They gotta buy SOMETHING, even if it is a generic ETF like VOO.

tachyonvelocity

Lmao at people accusing me and each other of being bots. This is actually ultra bullish for semiconductors. Bots are so good now that people can’t differentiate between bots and humans, IE human interactions are worth less, and bots are worth more. Who needs psychiatry and human companionship when AI solves human interactions and cures your depression? AI is literally a cure for the loneliness epidemic rampant in basement dwelling redditors and you’re bearish?

TimelessNY

This is really cool. Maybe some ticker filtering by sector or capital requirement? And inclusion of next earnings date, I personally try not to sell puts if there is an earnings report during the contract. Premiums would be a lot higher but you can get super burnt and I am not sure delta accurately accounts for this. IE: Ticker:ABC Score:NN Earnings in NN days With those I could see myself just using this tool and not having to bounce back and forth between tradingview.

CokeyKoala

Brokers can be overwhelmed by buyers. IE. Amanda Askell

PaperHandsTheDip

\>  My bottleneck isn’t producing code either it’s definition. That's arguably most peoples bottleneck. The human factor hasn't seen any increase in velocity. It's strictly around code production. For what I do (HFT) - the goals are quite well defined. Make it fast, ensure correctness. IE: I basically told my model last week "Here's the code, go over every function and try to make it faster. To test it, write a test that compares the output using the new function & the old function. Compile it with the compiler flags we use in production. Randomize the inputs and run 1 million iterations. Ensure equivalence and use a nanosecond precision timer. Do several iterations per function. If any edge cases are found, log them. To start - optimize individual functions. We will iterate and try to collapse / reduce functions / branches later." -- etc. It's very largely something that I'd do / can do by hand (and used to do by hand) - but claude accelerated it drastically. The deep thinking models are important - I've had it produce some very elegant solutions that would have taken me hours by hand (if I'd have even figured it out at all). Optimizing nanoseconds out of functions is easy to understand but hard to come up with. Claude does it in under 5-10 minutes most of the time. I can validate correctness very easily. In my experience the local models / free models lack the context / ability to \*really iterate\* / come up with elegant / fast solutions to these types of problems. Sure they'll come up with \*something\*, but is it optimal? Is there better ways to do it?

PaperHandsTheDip

Consensus over the next 12 months is still up in the air. I'm optimistic / bullish -- but I know many here are not. If I had a bunch of free capital right now I'd likely DCA over 12 months pending magnitude of cash. Worldwide ETFs outperformed in 2025 vs focused on individual countries (IE: USA underperformed). Historically the US has outperformed, but that doesn't mean it will continue to into the future.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> I thought you got the biggest Ws with algo trading Nah lol. In aggregate -- **yes**. But the idea is I find some small statistical edge and scale that up. It gets a ton of wins and a ton of losses. My average profit margin right now is < 0.05% of volume traded. IE: My algo trades $1 million back and forth, I'd expect to maaaybe profit $200-500 in profit. The idea is it reduces variance / is provably repeatable. Then just do that \*a lot\*. I never get "big wins" with algo trading - but there are cases where I'll go weeks (months) on end and never end up losing money over any 24hr period.

Equivalent-Load-9158

Alleged, and it doesn't sound believable at all. Outlandish, but also details are already shown to be not true. Like her position in the company wasn't tied to him(IE she wasn't his superior wouldn't have been working closely with him).

Comfortable-Sky7801

60% into the SP500 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B5BMR087 25% into STOXX600 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=LU0908500753 15% into gold/stocks of your own choice. DCA every month.

alex206

IE 6?

CoughRock

some have too many btch but no money. Then again it's not an issue since he can just bum off money from them. IE: The tinder swindler, pretty famous court case. A guy pretend to be a son of a billionaire, rent private jet and invite rich women onboard for parties. Then asking them for "investment loan" and using the cash to pay off loan to the previous women, rinse and repeat to keep up the billionaire heir image. Kind of crazy rich successful beautiful women still get swindled and burn their marriage for a prospect of become a billionaire's side hoe. It's not like they don't already have money but greed seems to be infinite.

CoughRock

what do you mean ? it's literally how the original gold rush makes money. The pplp selling shovel,lodging and food/water/accommodation made all the money. While very few California gold digger actually made and maintain their fortune. IE: the shovel makers are making all the money as it did last time during gold rush day

CoughRock

By saving 1% tax for a 100 billion dollars company. Then collect commission on that saving. IE: if you can figure out a way to legally help amazon avoid paying china tariff, you will be making far more 5 millions per year.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> It is going to have disastrous ramifications on society under our current economic model, 100%. Basically anything that requires using your brain is going to lose it's value. Which is... everything. It's starting to become apparent that AI can actually think / solve problems. IE: I'm using it in work to solve problems that I assure you are not in it's training set. And... it's doing it more or less on par to my ability to. I've been writing software for 20+ years, worked at google, microsoft & currently design HFT systems. Academia isn't safe. Look at AI 4 years ago & 10 years ago vs today. Then give it another 4-5 years. We're going to have AI's performing research / doing PhD level work in a few years -- better than the experts in said fields.

Tiny-Art7074

You can test it on [testfol.io](http://testfol.io), start the time period 10 years ago, use something like VOO, and under the portfolio back test tool click "metrics", scroll down and you will see the safe and perpetual 10 year rates. The perpetual rate over the last 10 years is around 10%. The safe rate over such a short period, and with such little data is meaningless, but it would be higher than the perpetual rate. The perpetual rate in this case is where you end up with the same amount you started with. IE, the safe rate over the last 10 years anyway, is somewhere above 10% and it probably an anomaly, but either way, Wade was dead wrong.

Brawmethius

oh god the million dollar question, at this point with the FED backstop functionally the only clear collapse mechanism I can see is USG debt default. Otherwise as long as people accept poofing dollars out of thin air anytime the banking and financial institution needs them then they don't face a crash, as all crashes with out fail (even if the trigger mechanism is different) are liquidity crunches. Potentially bad earnings? But even then who goddamn knows, bad earnings seem to just increase volality which in turn our market plumbing is monetization of volatility which in turns makes it generating paper value in markets which then help prevent discovery. I have been trying to work this out for a few years now, and everytime I think its approaching a breaking point more liqudity is opened up. IE the sec ruling at the exact time the 0dte dealers were suddenly facing declining liquidity in collaterals. And I say this not a brag but as support of how goddamn difficult this to work out, I am a multimillionare with extensive market exposure and experience from the last 20 years. Advisors and money managers that I have worked with for decades and have worked with my family for decades, have no fucking clue what is happening. As outside of the shitposting and degeneration I am here for, I do have serious investmetns I am trying to long term protect that can't exactly or reasonably just "go cash" and what I am finding is the everything is derivatized and interlinked; and I am struggling to find real downside protection as I view the market and general asset pricing simply devoid of price discovery. But think most large accounts and groups are facing this issue, and its forcing them to chase yield and return... which is forcing them into mainly being the counter party in option dealing strategies or loaning collateral for it. Which in turn is making this worse as there are no clear areas to flee to. I really think no one has a clear view except for the major major players running the plumbing.

thethor1231

How about https://www.justetf.com/nl-be/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BYWQWR46#overzicht

PaperHandsTheDip

Nah - optimization. AI is incredibly good at those types of problems / making efficient code. Tests are important as the prove correctness (AI might hallucinate / do something you don't want it to). Basically I can tell the agent "make this program faster" and... it will. Then I look over the changes, iterate, and do it again. Do that a couple times and you can make your system significantly more efficient. It matters a lot when you care about speed or cost. IE: My brother used it for a similar thing and cut their AWS bill in half. They are spending > $10k / month at their company.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> The ROI exists it’s just concentrated in certain use cases and certain industries. It's expanding. IE: I have a few friends in accounting and it's making its way into that field. They're starting to rely on it. I had a call with the doctor earlier (scheduling an appointment) - it was AI driven end to end). Actually a smooth experience. \> What software are you using it for if you don’t mind sharing? I design high frequency trading systems, although almost every engineer I know has moved over to AI assisted coding / purely AI driven. The demand is so high that the companies (ie: anthropic) are starting to have to throttle users / increase prices like crazy due to lack of supply / compute. I bumped my subscription up, and am thinking of doing it again due to supply constraints. My brother is paying more per month than me. His company is spending \~1k / month / engineer - and are very happy with the value.

37366034

I used to dream of them! The secret is mostly long dated option, find a stock or sector that’s beaten down big because of vibes (IE Google was losing to ChatGPT in 2024, or the recent software sell off that feels very similar) And just let it ride out when you are up big.

NBAFAN9000

Hey Veep, when a lot of people are shorting multiple people can own 1 share IE the original owner and the person they’ve lent it to, to short it. Hope that helps.

PaperHandsTheDip

\>  I'll bump it to a sliding 6h window with a hard cap of 2 comments per user per session so you don't get the bot-brain rot after a quick bounce. decent compromise. Personally I'd throttle it **per user**, **per organic interaction** (don't disrupt organic chats), and **per response** (global, ie: don't spam too much). \--- IE: **per user -** discussed (dont reply to the same user too much) IE2: **per organic interaction** \- discussed (don't spam when regular users are posting a lot) IE3: per response - perhaps get VM to comment at most once every (5-10?) minutes comments on a thread / chain. This is the global. Only one interaction per comment chain. Perhaps allow it to respond again in the same chain (?) for comebacks / snarky remarks, etc if someone responds. respect the limits above. \- The idea here is that when i open the daily / weekend chats (or whatever) - I scroll down. I see messages from user X (1 minute), user Y 3 minutes, user Z 4 minutes, etc, old. I'm gonna lose interest if it's VM replying to every single one of those. Of the set of 10-20 top level comments, 1 VM response may be valid. \--- perhaps this reduces down to something as simple as "only allow VM to comment on 5-10% of posts"?

SST114

Agreed and it's in most cases passing judgement on limited facts. How is Amazon IE some giant immorality example and Costco is not? They're both giant infrastructural logistics and retail corporations basically. Palantir is sus obv, we all get that despite being a tech investor I avoided them even at good buying opportunities due to a mix of misunderstanding their biz model and not liking it... but all I did was miss out on a 15X realistically--- which is fine btw.

TT_Vert

Rolling when ITM is pretty pointless in a tax advantaged account w no fees to trades. Even at 4EST there is some extrinsic value in the option and lately it's been upwards of .20 per option. So when I would do the math, it made sense just to let it expire, take the entire premium and let the shares get called away. IE, I would be losing $400 in the underlying by selling but to buy back the contract would cost me $435-$440. I would get assigned and in the AM I buy again, hopefully at a discount from the night before but it's not always the way it goes. Of course, last time I did this SPY kept going up and I lost about $600 more in the underlying :D D

Significant_Gene7582

Id be happy either way. Complete ban or real time reporting. This current situation is such BS and frankly it criminal. Could you imagine getting inside info on all the great coopanies then placing HUGE $ on Calls...IE PELOSI?

tachyonvelocity

No I just have a working crystal ball. [I predicted the blockade a month ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1s33mp9/comment/ocf1hlk/), of course totally downvoted because people thought we would invade Kharg. "so the US can simply block the same strait on the Indian ocean side and take over some Iranian tankers." Now that all the cards have been played, the path forward is a deal, whatever gets negotiated, because the oil customers, IE China, also have a seat at the table.

SuppleWinston

Im on Schwab with account margin, and I sell calls that control notional value over 4x my cash amount if I was assigned. Same story, I do not pay interest. I only pay borrowing rates upon assignment and Schwab calculates a dynamic margin requirement with each position, that is a small fraction of the notional value. IE, last week I sold naked a 1030C on SNDK, 7DTE and my cash available went down 8k. The option value is 1.3k. I did not pay interest on this position.

Brawmethius

Many, and I do mean many, of you don't seem to understand how market and money flow work, especially in things like futures. There is no admin of the price that goes "oh whoops lets reset the move because the news was wrong". IE Oil prices "if it moved down big then we found out not as good why not move up same". Well because regardless of the accuracy of the move, that long got what might some call BTFO. TLDR; Contracts are not open/closed by the accuracy of the news, they are mechanically done by the price movement. Unlike many of you tards, traders usually do not immediately re-enter the position that blew them out.

PaperHandsTheDip

Why doesn't it? The markets dropped not due to the war - but the effects of it (oil). The oil issue is very likely going to be resolved within \~1-2 years. IE: Chevron is ramping up production in venezuela. The strait isn't our only option - and the time to ramp up alternatives (if the war doesn't resolve) is \~1-2 years. Which means the oil (and energy) issues will be resolved by then. The only reason markets dropped is because of the oil / energy shock. Markets didn't actually care about the war.

rjbarn

Sorry OP, this is really dumb and dangerous. Don't do it please... This works out (on paper) when the average return is 9-10%. However, this is across a very long time horizon. A bad year or set of years will completely destroy you. Plus, don't forget that you have to pay taxes on the assets that you sell to cover the loan. IE, you get extremely lucky and capture years with positive growth, but you still need to cover the loan costs. So you sell, take a 30% short term cap gains haircut, then cover your loan + interest, and you're left with what? Maybe a 1% gain? Not worth it. This is speculation, not investment.

PaperHandsTheDip

context: the game we played: War is bad for markets. They go down. (everyone bithcing about it). So - sell all index funds and rebuy them back on the dip that the war will cause. We increased our ownership / units. Long term??? Nobody knows nor cares. Long term we follow the boggles advice with markets (hold for 20+ years). They're probably higher in 20+ years. So that's a win. IE: I had N units of SPY before, I now have 1.05N. Let exponential growth do the rest.

PaperHandsTheDip

unluck sirs. The only rules to the game are "don't lose money". Nobody actually cares about the war / the rest. It was just an excuse to dump the market to rebuy the dip. Everyone here already knows within 1-2 years everything will be fine / smoke clears. So the game we played was super short term. They'll figure it out -- always do. IE: Chevron ramping up oil production in venezalua. That's gotta be good for oil / demand - they got the biggest reserve in the world afaik. It's not like these guys with trillions of dollars are gonna roll over because "they closed down a strait". Give em a few months / years and they'll figure it out.

Perfect_Ganache_1959

Yeah, I guess I am mostly suggesting the discrepancy between cost of ad delivery vs profit margin *probably* is so disconnected from true costs that energy price rise due to oil crisis is inconsequential. Alright, so this is PR from them, but you can see they have aligned a lot of energy usage to renewables. https://sustainability.atmeta.com/data-centers/ Even where it's not that - IE: gas turbines chucked into new data centres - US domestic supply of LNG isn't much affected by lack of oil via Iran. Yes, there are second order effects (who's going to buy the ads if there's no products that can be moved cheaply); but I would argue for the medium term, Meta would just keep on trucking. I mean, they know they are getting 10% of their ad revenue from scams; I'd bet they would happily up that to 20% if slowly trialling it on their users and customers showed they can get away with it: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-07/meta-making-billions-from-scam-ads/105983808 Guessing most of those businesses don't have transport or agriculture intensive concerns that are impacted; except for your Temu-like drops hoppers.

Perfect_Ganache_1959

You are not irrational, despite what the others replying are trying to suggest (with little justification of their beliefs) But for Meta, consider that the cost of their service - data centres, energy, water, salaries; the "value" of what they sell are disconnected more than you expect. IE: imagine they are selling ads for $1 an impression. Does it actually cost them $1 to stick an ad infront of someone, in terms of power, people, etc? No. But can they sell that ad impression for that kind of rate to customers who are increasingly desperate for sales as the economy slows? Do they have to guarantee a click or sale even? (No, generally - only at volume when everyone decides its not worth it) If it ever got close to threatening profits, the aspects they can control are staff costs - and they are doing that already: https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/meta-planning-sweeping-layoffs-ai-costs-mount-2026-03-14/ Once the software system is built, you need little effort to maintain it from a software dev. So it is less likely there would be an immediate and dramatic effect. On the other hand; social media laws (IE: Australia) and age verification DO have an impact more direct that energy costs - they cut off a user group who are replacements for people who age out. You can see their investments to avoid this: https://www.axios.com/2026/01/21/meta-big-tech-lobbying-spending-q4

realdeal505

I'd say media content skews to complete doom and we need to take a step back and look at this high level. Market is down like 2% since the war. $100-140 dollar oil is like a .5% inflation event. This is not a total war event where the US is sending millions of people and trillions in material overseas. Both the US/Iran have been to the table (IE neither wants this indefinitely). With stocks being future looking, this is a small discount scenario and not a scenario where the market structurally is wrong/uncertain where you get a 20-30% discount (housing bubble, crash from Covid that nobody knew anything). If you look at similar evens, we legit had higher oil in 2022 from Ukraine and more stuff going on and the market just kind of sideways for a bit. Early 2000s wars and even higher oil prices didn't really long term kill stocks.

ManicMarket

Person who formerly monitored for insider trading and handled pre-clearance at my firm. Contact the department who does the work, explain you forgot to get pre-clearance. Let them do their investigation and go from there. Every firm will have different policies, but most aren’t very interested or trying to fire people who made an honest mistake. They have to look at the facts and circumstances and then remedy the situation from there. Things they could say - you need to bust the trade. That’ll be different from situation to situation how that’s handled. They could also say - you’re fine, don’t do it again. IE - if they would have been able to pre clear the trade at the time it was placed. No one was harmed and therefore a verbal warning feels appropriate. Any firm with a proper control environment in place will find your trade and know it wasn’t pre cleared. Do you want to ask for forgiveness after you’ve been caught doing something wrong and hidden it or before they reach out to you and you have the opportunity to clearly show it was just human error?

PaperHandsTheDip

Likely works in a high paying industry -- IE some higher end software jobs can pay 500k+ / annum right out of school. Some guys working in AI for big tech companies are taking home 600k - 1m right out of school. With a few years of specialization some are making $2m+ Kinda fucked tbh

PaperHandsTheDip

Uh, no you don't lol. Are you living in the 90s? A PDF is an open format, with hundreds of readers out there. It's actually built, open source, into chrome ie. That's what I generally use to read them (just a browser). A pdf doesn't need adobe reader, there are \~1000 other ones out there, including open source ones. The powerpoint format is also open source (surprisingly to you I guess). IE: Go check out google slides -- it'll allow you to make powerpoints, edit them, import / export & convert to PDFs as well.

FederalExpressMan

My primary company software is from the 90s and runs on Windows with DOS command prompt. It is solid and very rarely does it go down. Other supplemental programs are built to run on IE/Edge. I’m pretty sure alot of critical enterprises are the same.

HotTruth999

Worse than IBM. At least IBM was able to reinvent itself several times. Microsoft is good at trying to put their competition out of business and locking in enterprise customers who have no wish to remain. As soon as they can escape they will run for the hills. MSFT is nothing more than an expensive China-lite borrower of other companies’ innovation. What do I mean? MSDOS was copied from a 3rd party QDOS for 50k MS networking was copied from Novell The Microsoft mouse was copied from Xerox The GUI on Windows was copied from Xerox & Apple Excel was copied from Lotus 123 Exchange was copied from Lotus Notes Word was copied from WordPerfect IE was copied from Mosaic and Netscape Windows NT was copied from Digital Equipment Corporation VAX VMS Azure was copied from AWS Xbox was copied from Sony ps Etc etc etc They haven’t a creative bone in their body.

skilliard7

1. If Meta's models manage to catch up and outperform competitors, or are cheaper, people may choose to use them. 2. For consumers, having them built into existing products(IE Facebook) may encourage usage. This is a big reason Google has had some success despite having an inferior model; Gemini is built into Search/Chrome/Android/Gmail, so it is convenient to use.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Why not just expand to some other lower volume assets like options or cross-country ADRs/ETFs? It's quite profitable as is. IE: My systems used to account for \~1% of global crypto derivative trade volume. It's not at those levels anymore -- but I wouldn't exactly call my operation "small" -- it's quite profitable, capable of trading billions per month and making millions. IE: These are some stats from a decayed system: [https://imgur.com/a/Ww0MuYy](https://imgur.com/a/Ww0MuYy) \--- \> Anyways, small trading businesses are one of those niches where I think software will pretty much always stay proprietary Correct. However my brothers business (\~20 engineers) is now fully vibe coded as well. I'm aware of one of my friends at Meta and another at Google who are also 100% vibe coded now. \--- The issue with saas - is that once companies realize they dont need super / hyper specialized programming knowledge - you just need domain knowledge - it's going to be everywhere. I was chatting with another friend this weekend (works for a very large construction company in vancouver) - who are in the process of moving all their saas to in-house.

PaperHandsTheDip

Market cap DOES NOT equal amount invested. Big difference. Often a $10m investment can move the market cap by significantly more, sometimes by over $100m to much more in extreme cases. IE: When a company raises money, they may raise say $10m at a $250m valuation. Previous raise was $5m at $100m valuation. The company got $10m invested, but their market cap went up by $150m (15x more). Public companies work similarly in this manner, but it's done via the stock market. It's a function of liquidity, valuation (what people think it's worth), supply, demand & a bunch of other things. TLDR: IT's not 1-1

PaperHandsTheDip

>\> I feel like I was too late this time. As soon as the war started (like literally the first day) - I sold. Magnitude I had no idea how big / far it would move. I just assumed it would (as wars can't easily be backed out of like his other moves) & war also tends to be bearish >\>  thought the war would worsen and they would keep falling The issue with this - is that everyone already knew this information, so for lack of a better word it's "priced in". The only things that are NOT priced in is information that is not widely known. Everyone has been debating just how far markets will move, when to buy back in, etc. I sold when people were debating whether the war was even real / was going to happen (they'll just shake hands and call it off tomorrow!). Similar debates people had as to when it would bottom. They bottomed the day that Iran stated "we are willing to end the war", ie: a light at the end of the tunnel. The war did escalete in the meantime (you are correct) - but everyone already acted on / anticipated that happening. Iran being willing to end it / showing willingness was the bullish sign for last week. >\> Is your strategy based on the assumption that markets will keep going down as a situation worsens? No - it's guessing on events that people are not really aware of yet (that will probably happen, but haven't yet) & the general direction I expect the market to move -- all before the events occur. IE: Speculation. The reason markets are "forward looking" is that everyone is already aware of all the current information. Markets could continue down, yes, but if the war ends they will jump like crazy. It's incredibly difficult (ie: basically impossible) to correctly price markets if you only consider existing information. You need to have an edge / some information most others do not, or speculate on events that may occur (and what their effects would be)

PaperHandsTheDip

Exactly. Whenever the trigger you set occurs, the automated order happens. IE: A stop loss can be set with a price & amount to sell / reduce your risk. It's an automated order, where the trigger is price action.

CoughRock

any one working in finance or finance adjacent have insider trading prevention rule. IE: any stock you buy can only be sold with a loss if you want to sell it within 30 days of purchase. Shorting is not allow but inverse etf is okay strangely enough. Option is only allowed for covered call. But if your shares got called away and sold, that's insider trading right there buddy. Back in 2019, cryto and alternative asset like stupid ass nft used be able to skirt the 30 days insider trading rule. But that's no longer allow.

Temporary-Alarm-744

My guy missed Tri Color crashing. Time to get off Microsoft IE

baithammer

You need to read what I wrote, namely that you keep energy sources such as Natural Gas online until that capacity is covered by greener options. ( IE. Phase In / Phase out)

PaperHandsTheDip

I've been building software for over 20 years as has my brother. He showed me the recent improvements in claude since 6 months ago. It's actually fucked. A single engineer can now make / run an entire project \*solo\*. You can now just tells claude what to do, it does it and verify it. Hallucinations have dropped to near 0. Experienced engineers are swapping to 100% vibe code - and it \*works\*. These are not junior engineers / "vibe coded shit" that people are starting to put together. They're quality code / projects. I had a look at my brothers most recent one. He said he spent \~2 weeks on it. I looked at the code, it looked solid. He told me he didn't write a single line. Previously it'd have taken over a year. \--- The issue with software companies (such as MSFT, ie) - is that their revenue comes from building these systems. You have managers and teams of engineers to assemble them. The engineering "team" isn't really needed anymore. A highly experienced engineer can manage a set of agents and accomplish the exact same thing / quality. Which is what blew my mind. IE: The cost of making enterprise software is about to faceplant, hard, and it's going to bring along all these software companies with it. They have teams of hundreds of managers, engineers, etc, to build it. That entire thing can be reduced down to only a handful per client now. Which at that point - the enterprise just hires their own small internal team to do it all...

PaperHandsTheDip

Well - tariffs were just a tax on consumers. Oil makes the price of goods go up across the board, globally. IE: It's not a tax and there is no "take backs" that can be done

PaperHandsTheDip

Many try to -- see what robinhood is doing. The reason is a mix of various things, here's a few off the top of my head: **regulations** \- often not legally allowed. **overhead** \- how much does it cost to implement vs expected gains from doing it? If it's a significant amount of work, requires increases in headcount / friction & payoff isn't super large - it's often just not worth it. **professionalism -** often these brokers & apps have repuations that they like to uphold. You won't see massive funds using robinhood like the users do. If Schwab started introducing "meme like things" they lose the professionalism image and it may actually cause more damage than financial gains that they stand to make. IE: There is a risk to everything.

PaperHandsTheDip

It's also a much more global issue than the tariffs were. IE: US didn't tariff itself. Some countries were barely effected. Domestic only / smaller companies were much less effected by tariffs. The oil shock is going to hit everyone & very hard.

marketmispricing

Do you focus on IV for the option being outta whack with the underlying security? IE: creating a mispricing?

JacobSteed

I got burned doing this last spring when everything plunged then whiplashed the other way. I’ve been more careful lately, selling covered calls on socks that I’m in a negative position. IE oracle.

CoughRock

That count a coercion from superior officer. Military court frown upon that. It will be illegal to fire them. IE: when Obama say military member who commit sexual assault to their fellow member or civilian, will be dishonorably discharge. This was during the okinawa base incident. The threat of dishonorable discharge count as coercion from superior officer. The members on trial end up getting free and honorable discharge afterward. Given how regard this administration has been so far. I would surprise they haven't legally trip themselves over. Effectively give free coercion protection to all the people they want to fire. Mind you they can still sue the member in civilian court. But military court will most likely grant them protection from being fire if hegeth get caught power tripping on public record.

PaperHandsTheDip

If you're actively investing in the market - it's basically a game of betting on news that hasn't been priced in yet / people don't know about yet. Do you know something we don't? I sold most my index funds when SPY was \~685 (feb) due to the rising tensions / war. That's when I made the trade you're considering entering into now. I haven't re-bought yet... I'm considering doing it soon to "lock in the profit". I can increase my units by \~4-5% tomorrow / lock the profit in. That's a fantastic trade (increase shares / holdings of index funds by 4-5%) in less than 2 months is fantastic. This is why people say it's "already priced in". Active investors looked at events that might occur & made bets on it. Once they occur & market reacts, they lock in the profits. IE: I'm an active investor (also passive) who made this same trade, but am looking to lock in profits / for my exit soon.

meltbox

Algos mostly just market make. They’re not often taking positions that are directional and if they are it’s a timed entry exit not long term no market investing. IE they may invest because of a positive presidential tweet and will exit on some combination of flow data. But they’re not just directionally gambling.

Individual_Formal130

Should have put 80% in your bank and don't let it sit there begging to be yolo'd. Perhaps the problem with all the losses IE no one is withdrawing that money.

tachyonvelocity

Natural gas is quite literally close to free IN THE US, do you even read my posts? Take a hint what most of the MAG7 and US companies, IE stocks, pays in energy costs. It's not friggin gasoline.

Efficient_Can4700

Because these problems exist because voters didn't pick their candidates IE Kamal Harris. If there was a better candidate for the democrats, things could have been different. Also just to put out that it's not a recent thing since around 1980 when candidates have been picked in primaries.

CoughRock

depend on if the toll is higher than the cost of maintain navy/air force there. Our military contractors aren't exactly know for budget efficient and running under cost. IE: cost of afghan war was around 2.3 trillions. It's going to cost you a huge sum of cash while our nation is running a huge deficit. Not sure if it's worth to pay that much just to protect one man's ego. Let's not forget, Prior to WWII. Great Britain was the world's de facto banking system. Every one borrow from them and has to obey them financially. WWII put them through huge amount of war debt and force borrowing from usa. Effectively gave up their banking power and destroy any ability to maintain oversea colonies. Who's to say the same thing won't happen to us if we escalate this to a world war. The neutral country that finance the next world war will be the winner post war and control the global currency.

PaperHandsTheDip

We'd all be billionaires if we jumped on every good missed opportunity. Some of them - you may have even been involved in. IE: I was involved in crypto in it's early days & at one point I had over 200 bitcoin. I sold them for... a few thousand each. Was pretty stoked about that. At it's peak that'd have been worth \~$25million. Just last year I had some AMD leaps (picked up \~$110). They're up over 5000% right now. I sold for a measly \~25% profit. You just gotta accept that there are a ton of good opportunities out there, and most of them you let slip through your fingers.