IE

eyehole_men

Odds are I think the market will rally. By how much I don’t know but it will be like nitros in an engine. It might get tempered out though depending on how Trump responds IE if he figures out some other bullshit way to impose tarrifs.

Zealousideal_Bet924

1.How do you manage tail risk? IE low frequency downside events. In those events your leaps would get stomped and you probabky cannot sell cc above cost basis either thus not funding recovery leaps. 2. Do you segregate the industries/places that you wheel from your leaps positions? 3. Do you use your leaps gains to fund your wheeling thus completing the circle? Seems like an interesting approach.

bungholio99

That’s why JP Morgan and Global X has those IE, EU or LSE listings. You get nice 8-12% yields and mostly completely tax free, but sometimes there is a 1-2% Spread because of low volume. You could also look into those swiss stocks that have 0 witholding tax in general, this should also improve your situation and it’s often a 4-5% yield you get. Holcim, EFG, U-Blox, Avolta or Clariant.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's why I was looking at CSPs - if it does anything other than faceplant hard you'll make money. Selling 29p's you collect a \~1.75 premium right now. IE: Has to be below 27.25 to actually lose money. Anything over that and you print.

PaperHandsTheDip

I stopped buying calls unless they're leaps / 6+ month expiration. IV crush hits too hard. Instead I swapped to shares + CC's & CSP's. They work better for me. IE: I sold some ITM CSPs on PENG (22.5) for \~$2.4 each. PENG would have to fall below $20.1 for me to lose money (\~5% downside protection). With PENG sitting \~$23 right now, I pocket $2.4 (ish) if they expire worthless -- whereas with shares I'd only have made \~$1.5 / share. I'm dumping entire position tomorrow irregardless -- but I made more money with shares + CC's & CSPs than I would have with just shares AND I also got some downside protection.

Moddingspreee

Do not buy VOO if you live in the EU, it will be a nightmare tax-wise. Buy only “UCITS” etfs. UCITS etfs similar to voo are these ones: https://www.justetf.com/en/how-to/sp-500-etfs.html I personally have the SDPR accumulating S&P 500: https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000XZSV718 Lastly, my recommendation would be to buy an all-world etf, this way you have a bit of diversification and aren’t going all in on the US. I have this one: Invesco FTSE All-World UCITS ETF Acc – https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000716YHJ7 Good luck! If you want to find more ETFs, JustETF is a pretty good source for European investors.

pocketsquare22

What size spreads and what are you getting for them? IE are you selling a 10 point spread for $1? Or a $20 point spread for 0.50? It sounds nice but often it’s Pennie’s in front of a steamroller. You win a few, then suddenly lose big on one

leogrimm98

This is the ISIN of one of the best assets you can trade right now: “IE000NXF88S1” (VanEck Oil Services). I’m agree that Other companies, such as Conoco and Exxon, will take years to return to the Venezuelan oil fields. I also think MercadoLibre is another great opportunity. I used to live in South America (two years in Colombia), and people used it for everything—especially in the real estate sector. I believe that a significant amount of investment will flow into the LATAM market after the collapse of Venezuela, and possibly Cuba as well. That would mean higher cash volumes for platforms like MercadoLibre.

Wows_Nightly_News

What's crazy is that they are charging him with a national firearms act violation. IE for breaking US gun law.

quickexhuast

The USA embargoed them in the 70s so of course there was no investment, and Russia has their own reserves to develop. This is much bigger than profits, this is to prepare for a future as globalism dies off. The US requires astronomical amount of diesel to operate its military and economy, they dont want to be beholden to other countries they cant invade as easy IE Canada and Mexico. Its much easier to send troops to protect assests in SA, but if you invade canada or mexcio, youll get a bit more than a X post condemning the action.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Just sayin no one wins with options, but it is certainly fun to try! Some people do win. IE: Look at SPXL or TQQQ. They use options to obtain leverage - and have DRASTICALLY outperformed a simple "buy and hold shares" strategy.

AluminiumCaffeine

Meh, MSFT is playing this conservative somehwat, IE they handed the OAI contracts to Oracle, Satya is not super agi pilled or at least hes not ASI believing I guess from the interviews with him I have watched

ComplexEntertainer13

> 1) A product is drastically superior Firefox performance issues launching Chrome into the stratosphere in just a few years for example. I never realized how bad the issue was myself early on. Because I was a super early SSD adopter. But for a few crucial years there around 2008-2012 Firefox was near unusable on a sub par PC with a HDD. And rather than Firefox continuing it's slow climb in market share from eroding IE/Edge market share. Chrome went from nothing to dominant in just 2-3 years.

ChazCSP-2024

I think we are still a ways off on needing more energy. During a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the CEO of NVidia, Jensen Huang emphasized that the primary challenge is the speed of construction and the logistical hurdles involved in building data centers, rather than a fundamental energy shortage itself. He noted, building a large AI data center in the U.S. typically takes around three years due to permitting, environmental reviews, and grid upgrades. This is the real bottle neck!! There are 2 other issues I see with investing any meaningful capital in energy (note I have a small position in OKLO because I like their tech but I don’t think it will see revenues for quite some time ~ 3+ years). First, technology like Nuclear is far from being operationally ready, so investors plowing lots of money in that space will be really making a bet on who or what technology will prevail but won’t make serious returns as that will only come during the commercialization and contract, revenue stage. Second, the better play I believe is to look at the technology that will improve the current energy usage. What will make data centers use less energy. That is, better more efficient design of data centers by hyperscalers. Look at Nebius vs CoreWeave for the answer there. I have bet on Nebius but investors should do their on DD. Next will be to have copper replaced by glass. IE better more efficient energy usage via Photonics. That space has a ton of great companies doing really great things. That to me is where investors should be focused to respond to the threat of energy scarcity. I am invested in 3 main companies there, ALMU, POET and MRVL.

Substantial_Word5891

Yes, I think the between mechanical recycling and chemical recycling (encumbents) this perspective is valid. Chemical recycling is incredibly energy intensive and when looking at the value chain, you already need significant investments to ensure feedstock maturation - the combined economics only work if government steps up with tax incentives. Mechanical recycling is sub par. PCT uses dissolution recycling, which is significantly less energy intensive than chemical recycling. It doesn’t break any of the covalent bonds of the plastic compounds. As such it’s a plastic to plastic solution. Which is in effect a drop in replacement for end users. When you combine compounding and additives, the net increase to an end costumer is negligible. IE a 30,000 car costing 31,000 isn’t a deal breaker. Look into dissolution recycling, tons of research has gone into it. And pct is the first company of its kind attempting at this commercialized inflection point. Future builds on roadmap with improve mechanical designs, and throughput. Company has goals to reduce the spread with their R-pp vs Virgin to parity. Check out r/purecycle tons of knowledgeable folk there.

elrelampago1988

The top 10% is buying a lot of expensive shit and breaking the bank, the rest is holding for dear life. The funny thing is that if the top 10% know their dollars are losing worth as time goes on IE about to be worthless then their expense spree makes a lot of sense.

Awuza

It's almost like something happened to cause more disabilities IE a forever war in the Middle East and Africa🧐

NYSE_941_Gray

Yup, they will be bot…IE gone in a few years

Ok-Accountant1271

My sister actually just sent me this and I spent \~1 hour\~ showing her why it was stupid I pulled S&P 500 data for all the dates that were recommended buy and sell years. I just used January 1st for each month and day. Then, I calculated the return of each period. I assumed money was not invested in the market for times that were not listed, IE, if the chart said sell in 1942 and not buy back in until 1950,the money sat uninvested for those 8 years. I also assumed that dividends were not reinvested for simplicity. Also, S&P wasn't compiled until about the 50's so I used a comparasin model for the years from 1931-1953. Anyway, If you were to have put $1000 in the S&P in 1931, and bought and sold according to this charts recommendations, that would be worth $20,987.36 today If on the other hand, you bought the S&P in 1931 and held until today, that $1,000 would be worth $426,690.86 today. Nobody has a crystal ball. Buy and hold

cbus20122

LOL @ the post and the bot-driven comments supporting this. For those viewing this before it probably gets removed, this is why you don't follow random advice on reddit of what to buy or what not to buy. And there are surely higher quality attempts at astroturfing and pumping, more likely on other subreddits (IE WSB).

PaperHandsTheDip

\> something no quant has been able to crack to this day Directional biases & ranges exist in models. It's also why puts and calls have different deltas - they're literally pricing down movements (or up movements) of N% more expensive. IE: They're expecting a larger movement in one direction. Up is more likely than down - so it's more expensive (larger range, ie). It's basically biasing volatility expectations. Trading is all biases and games of averages. Nobody really knows - you're correct. That's why concepts like "price targets" are so incredibly weird to me. They don't mean anything. The only thing that really matters is relative movements. That's what options price. \> probability that investment increase They're defining realistic ranges up & down and playing games of averages where the outcome falls somewhere in that range on average. If they can correctly quantify the range they can buy & sell options for a profit. \--- Using the kelly criterion 1:1 doesn't work well - because as you stated - you don't know the odds. Nobody does. It actually works quite horribly because you don't know the input, output, odds, what others are going to do, etc, etc, etc. There is too much noise in the outcome.But it is a great framework to use for portfolio allocations - basically don't overcommit to riskier assets. That's more or less all I was trying to say. This translates to - yes - rotate profits from high risk stocks that have paid well into lower risk assets. Likewise - if a high risk investment fails - you can rotate some low risk capital into higher risk assets

DenseComparison5653

JEQP IE000U9J8HX9, got bills to pay

blorg

The US dollar has tanked, and all the increase in the market is from the devaluation of the dollar. It's not the market going up, it's the currency it is denominated in going down. The [S&P 500 denominated in EUR](https://imgur.com/a/N2Ub8Qe) is actually down since Trump's inauguration, even if you include dividends as that chart does, it's [an accumulating fund.](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BFMXXD54)

HireEddieJordan

No change. Mutual fund orders are all executed Mon-Fri at 4:00pm. Any order placed after 4:00pm waits until the following day at 4:00pm. (IE. A buy after the cutoff on Monday at 4:01pm is treated the same as a buy on Tuesday at 3:59pm)

Bikeandcamera

Crazy debt, making insanely big deals on a weird cyclical lending cycle with OpenAI and Nvidia that can't possibly benefit them, and using cloud as a loss leader to try to keep people on their outdated DBs. Any gains since like 2023 are just hope imo (IE anything above $60 is fake in my view)

PaperHandsTheDip

Yeeep. I've been playing ER's recently with the play being "enter into a position anywhere from a week to day of ER's, and cut the day after ER's". Overall it's been working alright all things considered. IE: I cut ORCL for a 10% overnight loss. It happens. Glad I did - my thesis was literally "probably goes up on ER's". It... didn't. So I just cut it

PaperHandsTheDip

AI sector got too far ahead - it's looking like it might not hit the numbers people were projecting / anticipating. IE: Look at ORCLs recent drop, followed by AVGO the next day. There are still warning signs flashing that we may be in a bubble (MAY BE IN ONE). AVGO basically said on the call that "margins are going to fall". This means that the entire sector is likely to not be as profitable as projected -> everything goes down. Everyone is worried about the AI trade right now.

sufferpuppet

https://youtu.be/VK16w_Esrno?si=8swL9nRFH-_IE0wq

PaperHandsTheDip

It's usually employee restricted, that's it. Alphas are so high that they take it all to themselves and self capitalize it because it doesn't scale. IE: IIRC Medallion fund makes \~67% per annum, but rumoured doesn't hold more than \~$10b at a time. IE: They just print money and pay dividends

_summergrass_

The world ETF I invest in, has developed and emerging markets, has large and medium sized companies, and costs 0.07% annually. It invests in 2.441 companies. ISIN IE0003XJA0J9 TICKER WEBN ISSUER Amundi I am based in Europe. I don't know if it available in the United States or anywhere else.

mr_cf

I believe so, as the fancy chatbot “agentic” LLMs are beginning to show the limits of their models. It seems the next step for LLM is working out how to do the same with less IE better silicon, efficient training models, less tokens consumption per query. The other part of all this is people will get bored of the shiny new thing as the reality kicks in, and business who have built AI into there products are currently getting AI at a fraction of the real cost. The moment these providers start to charge sustainable rates, I wonder how many businesses will keep using it, and how many will go bust as their business model relys on cheap tokens.

zjz

It doesn't show stuff you can't share per the rules we have set up to make it so only interesting stuff pops up. IE, if it's a closed position, you can only share it if it was closed recently, etc.

PaperHandsTheDip

you buying or selling 25k of puts? I've been selling them... IE: I sold \~45k of puts today [https://imgur.com/a/eftOjaq](https://imgur.com/a/eftOjaq)

realribsnotmcfibs

You rebalance by incentivizing moving manufacturing. Right now I’m buying components at a premium from European and Asian partners and paying big tarriffs. Which means I’m passing that cost onto my customer with an additional margin still placed on the new total. There are not alternatives for the vast majority of things like PLCS and sensors. IE we increased the cost of building out manufacturing in the United States. While demanding companies do such.

PaperHandsTheDip

checks out. IE: Not unless you have the bazillion dollars

PaperHandsTheDip

I've been a full time investor / trader for over 8 years, so you just kinda get used to it. My investment style is basically just playing events / catalysts (or runups into them) with a bullish or bearish bias. I'll do a very high level pass of a company / sector (nothing in depth) and just get a general read of how people feel (up, down, unknown). I look at the options chain (IV, costs, etc) - and decide on what looks reasonably priced (if anything) to make my bet. If I find something I like, I'll often just buy into it with no additional due diligence. Then... I just take a lot of bets. The idea is that if you can read the room correctly - you will be correct guessing the direction more than not. Market does tend to follow what the average investor thinks. Once a direction is decided (basically just using a consensus from others) - I'll look at payoff matricies / risks involved. I'll size the bets using handwaved kelly functions. Then just buy and run thru the event. I'll cut losses (or take gains) more or less immediatley. My average hold time for these types of assets is anywhere from 24hr - \~a few weeks. It's VERY rare I hold things longer than \~2-4 weeks. \--- I frequently use options. You can visualize the payoff matrices using tools such as: [https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/) IE: This was the payoff matrix of the calls I bought for ER's today. My plan was to more or less sell them within \~2-4 weeks, so you only need to look at the first 3 columns: [https://imgur.com/S8YzHiA](https://imgur.com/S8YzHiA) \--- I cut losses ALL THE TIME. I take so many losses it's crazy. It's basically just gambling (Where I believe I have a slight edge). It seems to be working alright all things considered - I've ran the strategy thru \~3 bear markets before. I've been drastically outperforming a "buy and hold the index" type of strategy (on average).

PaperHandsTheDip

\> “All the retailers are doing well” Nah. I'm literally looking at how investors are reacting to their ER's - as that's all that actually matters. IE: I'm looking at movements in the share price. That's all I'm here for - to make money. I don't actually care about the rest. If share price goes up -> doing well. Positive reaction -> goes up, Negative -> goes down. Look at any other retailer / similar company recently. They've all been doing amazingly. It was mostly caused due to market overreacting to tariffs on the sector. GAP +20% since ER's ANF +60% since ER's ASO +15% since tues (Er's) AEO +25% (jump on ER's) LULU +10% (jump on ER's) There are others up \~20-25% on ER's as well. However those are just the 5 I've been following. I haven't actually seen a single retailer **DROP** on their ER's recently. So... why would I expect lulu to? Often these jumps are due to some external variable - ie: macro correlations. \--- Well - turns out there is a reason for these massive share price jumps. The sector wasn't hit nearly as hard as anticipated (by, ie: tariffs). Investors priced the sector as if we were going into a recession - which we are not. Everyone overreacted. It makes a blanket bet on the sector a "good bet". That's why I bet on lulu. Sector has been doing very well (ie: share prices have been skyrocketing).

PaperHandsTheDip

I always use [https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/](https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/) to visualize the payoff matrix of my calls. Plug your cost basis in and the properties of your calls and you get a nice little payoff matrix. IE: This one is mine: [https://imgur.com/S8YzHiA](https://imgur.com/S8YzHiA)

himswim28

>Why are rate cuts bullish? That means our economy needs juice just to sustain itself. It's not rocket fuel... IE why they say the market isn't the economy. If interest rates are at 2% I am not wasting time buying bonds. It means a forward PE of 20 still beats the bonds. Sign that inflation is going to take off, meaning you want to own something physical (business, house,etc.) As cash is going to lose value.

PaperHandsTheDip

CSPs. Basically shares with a little downside protection. Still taking a 100k L on them tho. The max acceptable drawdown before loss was \~4%. IE: I'm eating probably a 7% loss tomorrow if we open 10% red.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's not what I said. I said you can generate \~4.5% give or take with GICs. Last time I looked it was over 5%, but I haven't looked in years. It's currently \~3.8% right now, which is within margin of error. Either way - that's a horrible return for capital. She should target \~7-10%, as that is more or less what the market returns on average over the long term. Anything less than \~7% is underperforming given enough time. IE: SPY is up 87% in the last 5 years, \~300% in the last 10 years & \~1000% in the last 30 years. It's a good benchmark to use, and is something anyone can easily invest in. \--- The only reason to use GICs or annuities is if you don't want to assume any risks. The only reason to do this is if you have cash that you cannot afford to lose. At 20 - she can expect \~7m by the time she is 50 if she just throws it into an index fund and chills. Using the 30year historical average, it'd be over $10m. But markets have been doing exceptionally well over the last decade. By comparison - an annuity of say 4.5% would generate \~45k / annum (and doesn't compound) - into a total of 2.35m. You're basically underperforming / leaving over $5m-10m+ on the table by assuming no risk. You're leaving millions on the table by taking $1k / month

Harrigan_Raen

>For fun shake, I kept on running and see what happen, all the way to year 70. That's assuming some dude made a fortune on 30 years old and was fortunate to live till 100. At the end, the guy's brokerage account would have 202,413,339 dollars. He will be borrowing 5,615,262.90 dollars on that year, he owns 975,229,711, and paying 3,900,919 in interest, and has over 1,714,343.80 to spend. the 100k is equals to 768,720.60 that year. his net worth? 104,890,361.70. This is off the chart because I use 6% increase in borrowing every year. At year 30, he starting to surpass inflation and interst. As someone who worked in the FI space for 15 years. I can tell you businesses at least do this with interest-only repayment loans with a ballon payment at the end, that is close to \~80-90% of original loan amount. Where we typically will refinance the entire balloon amount in the next loan. I've seen it done in 3-5 year term. And from an FI perspective its a fantastic loan, 100% collateralized (typically). They are locking in 3-5 years of their money being borrowed at significantly higher than most common products IE 6-7% vs like an A/A+ borrower getting a car loan at like 2.49%. The easiest way to solve this: 1. Any non-primary residence asset, as collateral for a loan, makes a taxable event on the asset. 2. (And this is a personal pet peeve of mine) Any time a real estate is used as collateral for a loan. The appraised value needs to be forward to the town/county/state (by the FI) to update the property valuation for taxes.

PaperHandsTheDip

I've only been playing with CSPs for a few weeks. It's been realizing \~5-7% per play which is nice. IE: See my profile for how I played ASO & profits from it. When doing shares + CC's it often caps out \~12-13%.

PaperHandsTheDip

Lol. It means I shorted in the money puts & collected the premiums upfront. Basically it's a bet that the price will go up, but it's safer than shares. If it does go up - nobody is going to exercise the puts and they expire worthless. IE: I pocket the premiums! If it goes down - I am going to be forced to exercise, but with the premium it's more or less equivalent to buying ORCL shares at 210, so I get a \~5% downside protection. It could fall by as much as \~4% and I still actually make profit! \--- It's an equivalent bet to buying shares and selling covered calls on them - but instead of buying the shares upfront you set aside enough capital to buy them if someone exercises. You can make bullish bets (with downside protection) using them - without actually having to buy the company. \--- I shorted 230p's that expire on Friday.

Prestigious_Ad3896

i would question a company doubling or tripling down on us bonds as well ... at least the dollar is backed by an actual country (IE the country with highest GDP) not blackmarket criminals and dictators

PaperHandsTheDip

Well - that's because they run CC's all the time and that's a dumb way to do it. You only want to sell CC's (or really any option) if you expect IV crush. That way your options turn positive as soon as the IV crush occurs. If you're always selling options - you are exposed to price drift which can (and will) fuck you over. Minimize price drift & isolate the IV crush by playing single day events / catalysts. IE: Sell the day of ER's right before close, and close the CC the next day. Often the options will decay 50%+ overnight and you can just pocket the premiums.

Godzilla_slayer

Google will replace ChatGPT. They have unbeatable market share. Netscape and IE history shall repeat itself.

PaperHandsTheDip

I went to a local one. Made a bunch of friends and connections. The hardest part of any job is getting yourself in the door - and you have a much better chance with friends / a network / connections. IE: I got a job interview because a friend I went to school with referred me when I asked.

PaperHandsTheDip

Correction, 76k\*. My fingers were off by 1 on the keyboard. [https://imgur.com/a/RCcRLdd](https://imgur.com/a/RCcRLdd) \--- I'm on questtrade - they give you 100% back on your option fees if you trade over 50k contracts a month. I trade 42k today (21k opened and closed in the same day). IE: Todays trades: [https://imgur.com/a/pHdOnW0](https://imgur.com/a/pHdOnW0) \~$42k in fees today (which should get me a 42k rebate next month!)

PaperHandsTheDip

I traded 17.7k contracts today on the 686c's. I bought (and sold) them all today - meaning my volume was 35.4k contracts traded. If you look at the volume on the 686c's today, total volume was 771k: [https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options/](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/options/) \--- This means I traded 35.4k / 771k = 4.59% of the total volume. \--- IE: I was single handedly responsible for almost 5% of the most popular option traded all day. Kinda crazy rofl

Dennyj1992

A few things wrong with picking stocks, not to mention likely more. 1. You have to be right twice. Buy low, sell high. 2. When you sell, you pay taxes. Not really the goal here. We want to avoid taxes (IE Roth IRA). Index funds? Buy and hold. They are your life's journey. At retirement, follow a SWR and never run out. 3. As mentioned above, you have a 50/50 shot at being right just within the next 10 years. After that? Your odds get worse. 4. Sectors rotate. This means stocks rotate. Which sector is next? Nvidia, Google, Apple, MSFT and the likes won't be on top forever, and we don't know how long. Brings me to my next point. 5. You have to REALLY gamble. Like, as in, be right early on. Pick a stock when it's worth nothing and then hold (through volatility) to crazy highs. How confident are you in that? Could make you millions if you ARE right. 6. People aren't as confident as they think. This is why less than 1% of all BTC holders are still holding from under $10. The rest are likely dead or locked out. Too many overestimate their risk tolerance and sell when things get even mildly shaky. Crypto is ultra gambling for the next generation. It's uncompensated risk and is always the same premise, just a new spin on it. 2005-2006 it was house flipping. That was the "get rich quick" fad. 7. Constant overview. Fundamentals change, new CEO, PL sheets, e.c t. This takes your active time and many of your life hours away to study and find the next new stocks. Good luck matching Warren Buffet, who gave his entire life to the study of company fundamentals, yet prefers his wife to own an index fund. 8. This one's the biggest IMO. Consolidation. Remember the MASSIVE gains from Dogecoin a few years back? Just like a single stock, something can trade sideways (or come back down) for years and guess what happens? The index fund investors keeps DCAing, every single paycheck and slowly passes that other player all along. They stay consistent. There are more reasons, but if you said you are fine to any and all of these, have at it. Good luck and best to you.

Bannedfrompopeyes

Yeah no I do agree the costs are wild and they need to tread with caution… I am not a perma bull, but I don’t think they’re in trouble short term IE 2-6 months.

PaperHandsTheDip

crypto is largely driven by the underground markets / black market / shadow banking industry tho. It's heavily used there / to avoid sanctions, etc - as there are no better options. It's a trillion dollar industry. Just not a legal one. IE: There was over $14b recently seized from a scam call center. That was only the PARTIAL REVENUE that a SINGLE SCAM CENTER was making. Real amounts are much higher. [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70jw436n0yo](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70jw436n0yo)

ohell

These are the [global index returns over the past year](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-comparison.html?isin=IE0006WW1TQ4&isin=IE00B6R52259&isin=IE00B5BMR087&isin=LU0908500753&isin=IE00B5L8K969). No reason at all for non-Americans to buy US indices (with the added benefit of being able to mute all Trump-related news and sleep peacefully)

PaperHandsTheDip

This does hold true for markets that do not go "only up". IE: Euro stoxx 50 3x is absolute dogwater. But Stoxx 50 is also only up \~70% since 1998 [https://stoxx.com/index/sx5tdl3/](https://stoxx.com/index/sx5tdl3/)

PaperHandsTheDip

Gotcha - so it's not an argument about the fund / returns of it itself - it's about capital usage. That problem is solved via emergency funds tho. If someone sets aside, say, 50k+ then they'd be fine. IE: For myself I have a very large one already (enough I could walk away for over a year+ and sustain myself with just the cash I have on hand), I already own a home (no mortgage) and I have investment portfolios worth a lot. Capital necessity != performance of investments. I was more concerned about the long term thesis of the investment. IE: If I were to invest my retirement account into it, or tax free accounts. Why... wouldn't I?

PaperHandsTheDip

Comes with high volatility trading strategies. So long as you reweight the portfolio every few months (or before expiration using options) - the high leverage can and **will** outperform in the long term. The short term drawdowns (sometimes by as much as 40-50%+) are normal volaility in the portfolios. They'll never go to 0 tho so long as you keep rolling them. They outperform, by a large margin too. In the short term (ie: bear markets, 2-3yrs typically) they will underperform, but as soon as it starts going up again - they drastically outperform making up for all the unrealized losses and more. \--- IE #1: Compare QQQ vs TQQQ over 10yrs QQQ (5yr): 102% QQQ (10yr): \~600% TQQQ (5yr): 160% TQQQ (10yr): \~2300% \--- IE #2: Compare SPY vs SPXL over 10yrs SPY (5yr): 87%: SPY (10yr): \~350% SPXL (5yr): 221% SPXL (10yr): \~950% \--- \> I think his 40% loss is a much better indicator of his trading acumen It's a 40% drawdown, unless he is panic selling things. It's a property of higher leverage strategies. My last few trades had 30-50% drawdowns in the short term but by expiration (2-4 months) were up over 100% each. I should have held longer instead of taking profits - one would have ended up over \~400% here. \--- The literal \*only\* thing that matters with options is the price at expiration if you are playing a long term strategy. Everything inbetween is noise.

The-WideningGyre

As you note, especially for your fairly small portfolio size, you are crazy overcomplicated. In Europe fees tend to be higher, so this is directly hurting you. While you can't get QQQ directly, there are other ETFs doing similar things, e.g. IE0032077012 is Invesco Nasdaq 100. But I get wanting to pick. There is essentially no point to buying a single share of something. If it does well, your portfolio doesn't change. Just use a watchlist or a "paper trading account" if you want to experiment this way. I personally think you're Europe-heavy -- it's underperformed historically, and I think will continue to do so. I love Europe (I live here too) but many countries, more regulation, less venture capital and other cultural factors leads to less innovation. The anti-AI bias is also going to hurt it. So my recommendation is to simplify aggressively -- selling off all holdings less than 200 Euro or something. Keep your all world and your tech. Going forward, I'd continue to put something into allworld and something into one other asset class. I'm personally not sold on dividend etfs. They might be defensive, but I think if equities go down, they will too. Bonds would likely be better. Gold is an interesting option. Small cap value stocks or emerging markets maybe. You should also be more disciplined about what your plan is -- pick some amount (75%) which is long term stable growth, and 25% is for "playing around" -- which you seem to want to do and enjoy (which is fine!). With your playing around, I would try to still concentrate on a few things, because as it is, you're just getting noise; I doubt you're learning much. As a recommendation to learn more, I'm a big fan of Ben Felix. Watch one of his videos on the basics of investing, and you'll learn a lot. They tend to be 10 minutes, devoid of BS, and usually backed with real data. He's not selling anything (nor am I :D). Anyway, good luck!

ConradT16

The problem is the words “too early”. This means it was earlier than the planned profit as based on his trading plan. IE risk/reward ratio and win ratio. So if he’s taking profit too early and those trades end up running to expected profit, his trading revenue could go from consistently profitable to unprofitable just based on the RR and ratio statistics

Clean-Skill-1431

Hello, Im looking for some opinions on my 6 years UK Junior SIPP and Junior ISA. They both have about 9k in them. As parents we have no debt apart from a mortgage at 2.2% for 4 more years. With the time frames involved i have a fairly high tolerence for risk. I see the JISA as being for a bit of fun stuff and then a house deposit probably not tuition fees unless the terms become much worse. Plus my own Lifetime ISA should have about £120k in by that point if needed. I'd welcome views on whether what i am doing seems sensible overall - and then thoughts on the actual funds spread which started a bit random but i have been trying to stream line. Going forward I plan to put at least 1200/ year (all the child benefit) into the JISA \- maybe another 500-1000 added in a good year. \- currently into a pretty high risk JPMORGAN Fund just changed from Nutmeg I- considering whether to move it to self investment platform but would welcome thoughts about funds - I have 9000 in the J SIPP through Fidelity - slightly random share allocation, i got a bit carried away like in a pick and mix shop, though i have tried to streamline it and consider market sperad. I am also aware that i am a bit concentrated on USA through Legal and general Global tracker and VUAG - should i pick one with all the worries about the AI bubble. I am planning to try and reach the 2880 limit each year in this account so he doesn't end up getting access to a big chunk of money as a student if i put everything into the JISA i know he could technically cash in his pension before time but it feels more locked away than the JISA. [**Fidelity Funds - Asian Smaller Companies Fund Y-ACC-GBP**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//LU0702160192/?id=LU0702160192GBP&idType=isin&marketCode=)[**Fidelity Funds - Asian Smaller Companies Fund Y-ACC-GBP**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//LU0702160192/?id=LU0702160192GBP&idType=isin&marketCode=) **£1141** [**Fidelity Global Dividend Fund W-Accumulation (UK)**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//GB00B7GJPN73/?id=GB00B7GJPN73GBP&idType=isin&marketCode=) **£1074** [**Legal & General Global Equity Index I Acc**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//GB00B83LW328/?id=GB00B83LW328GBP&idType=isin&marketCode=) **£3902** [**Pyrford Global Total Return Sterling Fund B Shares Acc**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//IE00BZ0CQG87/?id=IE00BZ0CQG87GBP&idType=isin&marketCode=) **£441** [**VANGUARD FUNDS PLC,S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD ACC(VUAG)**](https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheets//IE00BFMXXD54/?id=IE00BFMXXD54XLONGBP&idType=isin&marketCode=) **£ 2369** **I was thinking to mainly invest in the legal and general global index going forward? is this sensible?**

Nietzscher

If you want to stay strictly in the EU something like the iShares Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (IE00B53L3W79) is probably your best bet. Personally, I also like the STOXX Europe 600 (LU0328475792) because you get 200 Large-, 200 Mid-, and 200 Smallcaps in one basket. However, there you'll have a sizeable chunk of UK and Swiss companies in the mix as well. So, if you want to stay strictly EU it is either the STOXX 50 or you're willing to look into newer and significantly smaller ETFs like WisdomTree Eurozone Quality Dividend Growth UCITS ETF (IE00BZ56TQ67). The crux with the STOXX 50 is, it isn't a index for the largest companies of the European Union, but the largest companies of the Eurozone. Also, because it only tracks the biggest 50 companies there usually are only companies from 7-10 different countries represented at any given time (France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain + some Nordic and Belgian stocks that shuffle in and out of the index depending on market cap).

MidwestDadd1982

That’s not what gamblers fallacy is. Gamblers fallacy is the idea that a future probability is predicated on previous results. IE “I flipped a quarter and it landed on heads 10 times in a row…the next flip has to be tails”

PaperHandsTheDip

The reality is it's much harder to break into the field these days. The reason more or less reduces down to: capital costs. Infra costs for a competitive setup frequently run over $100k / annum these days AND you also need enough capital floating around in various places to actually execute the trades (frequently > $1m). Then throw in the R&D costs, etc. You'll very likely need \~1.5-2mm to try it these days. When I started there was no "pay to win" things around. They exist now tho. IE: When I started just rent a server on AWS and you're off the to races. These days: You need to pay for a colocated baremetal server ($6-10k+ / month), then need private infra lines (public internet isn't fast enough), etc, etc, etc. The only reason I'm still playing (or even playing at all) is that I broke into the space BEFORE these barriers to entry existed. I adapted as costs went up. My most recent system currently costs over $150,000 / annum - and it's not even fully live / making money yet. Already sunk over 100k into R&D too. Plus working for free ontop of that. \--- There is a reason people say "you can't do arb / won't find it outside of a prop firm / large company". It's often due to the above. My current system is getting setup to run with just over a mil USD in operational capital too - just to be able to start making a profit (ontop of the rest). \--- It'd be impossible for me these days without me "early start"

Aliman581

People price Nvidia higher because they are the only producer of AI chips IE they have a monopoly. If businesses move to TPUs Nvidia loses monopoly and chunk of their market

MindYoDamnBidness

I feel like I am the only person in the world who sees Google for what they really are, ten years ago they were AMAZING at indexing webpages, if you built a quality site and put up the most informative user friendly page you were going to be ranked in the top 3 99% of the time Then they started to change that when Covid hit, and in 2023 they hired a PR firm and asked them 'hey, how can we de-index 99% of the websites on the internet, steal all their information, and use it for our own gain while giving them nothing' and they got the answer: use a happy positive sounding name for the update that lays the death knell, so they came out with the "Helpful Content Update" Since then search.... IE THEIR FLAGSHIP PRODUCT... has been complete and utter garbage, they are no longer a search engine, they are an AI answer engine no different than the million other AI search engines out there The quality of the answers you get on Google right now are akin to Tesla's next car being equal to a 1986 Buick Skylark or Apple putting out the Iphone 27 and it not being able to access the internet So then you have to ask yourself how has Google done outside of search? Not just the numbers, but how has the company actually been run? How many LOL debacles have they had? The whole woke AI thing just being one example Who wants to bet on a company that has no shame in making billions of people get horrible results from their flagship product EVERY DAY when they could easily just revert to 2015 algorithms and go back to the best search engine in the world with a click of a button? They bankrupted newspapers, they bankrupted informational websites, they bankrupted bloggers, and they feed us shit every day How long is either being intentionally bad or just incompetently bad going to lead to being one of the most profitable companies in the world? I don't care about their current earnings, I don't care that they lead in blah blah blah, they have shown they couldn't care less about their flagship product, they have shown they couldn't care less about society at large, they have shown they know how to turn the biggest cash cow of the century into a dumpster fire, and they have shown to make terrible decisions when trying anything outside of search as well Yet you all see them as the best bet of these companies for the next 10 years? Even though they have to do more pivoting than any of the above since search/websites are clearly a dying industry? Open your eyes guys, its a terribly run company in a completely changing industry with a recent track record of either incompetence or intentional ineptness Why in the world would anyone want to invest in that companies future?

BBTB2

The answer is always ‘42’. Held wealth and value =/= liquidized wealth and value. I’ve always viewed bitcoin as the perfect example of this since it’s a derivation of vested funds electronically which is a derivation of currency which is a derivative of physical & actual assets (*gold bars, etc…*). This could be a blip in the larger scale, and could jump up next week or a month from now, but I believe crypto will ultimately end as a complete wash and organically formed Ponzi scheme (*IE not explicitly set up by one or more people, it feels though as if a bunch of different con artists are competing against each other*).

PaperHandsTheDip

They're usually \~20-40c per contract tho when I've looked - not 10-20 as you're saying. SPY has higher liquidity which is important when I'm often market buying / selling hundreds of contracts. IE: On Friday I traded over 6200 SPY 0DTE's. SPX would have a worse execution there WRT spreads & liquidity. It actually matters for some people, and more than cash settlement, taxes, etc. Especially when I'm simply just trading it - the literal only thing that matters in the case is execution quality. Which - reduces down to spreads + liquidity (compare relative %'s, yes). SPY almost always has 1c across the board. I've seen SPX break 40c.

El_Guapo00

Netscape was never free and Microsoft bundled IE with Windows. Later on US Vs Microsoft they had to give people the choice to choose the browser. Remember= That is history. You are just uttering fanboyish mock-up history.

dabocx

How did Chrome take over IE then?

Ukawok92

You're young, don't stress it too much. My best is advice is stay away from single stocks (IE the casino) and just regularly invest into a managed account, index fund etc. Have an auto deposit set for every week for however much you can afford into that account. If you want to play with individual stocks for fun, don't invest(gamble) more than you can lose. Both my managed accounts are up, the one I control, I'm down. Many such cases.

Sufficient-Pause9765

The AI bubble narrative is likely missing the most probably outcome. OpenAI/anthropic are betting on AGI/SGI and leveraging up to build data centers to progress this. They do not have the revenue, and probably wont, to support their expenses. Its probable/possible that those exposed to debt in data centers or investment in OpenAI/Anthropic will lose money. However I dont think this necesarily a systemic issue. OpenAI/Anthropic failing because they can't do AGI/SGI and their business models are not viable does not necesarily translate into big issue for google/microsoft nvidia. The alternative to no AGI/SGI from openai/anthropic is not the end of LLMs, its more likely in fact that LLMs become widely adopted, but they are smaller models supporting an expanded ecosystem of agents. IE, Nvidia will be fine (maybe lower profits, but fine. Google fine, microsoft, fine. So a stock pullback, but hardly a catastrophe. Those are big very profitable companies in their own right, and dont need openai/anthropic to achieve AGI to remain so.

Impossible_Notice204

It's cuz you don't have a forward deployed solutions engineer Not all the automation is "hey chatgpt do my job" You need someone who knows AI / ML, who understands business processes / systems, and how has the ability to automate (IE thats me and it's why I keep getting recruiters hitting me up for $200/hour 6 mo to 12mo contracts) There isn't a business process or report that I can't automate

captainrocket25

When there is significantly more upside than downside. IE buying Google LEAPS when it was at 170 as it was so undervalued compared to its fundamentals. 

phillymjs

Ah yes, famous truth-teller Steve Jobs. I was several years into my IT career in 1996 and also followed the story; I still have the issue of MacWEEK that covered the deal. That was an incredibly lopsided deal in Apple’s favor, because Microsoft needed a viable competitor they could point to to keep from being broken up in the antitrust case, and Apple had Microsoft dead to rights on several patent infringements. Microsoft contributed $150M for non-voting stock and agreed to continue development on Office. Apple agreed to make IE the default browser and licensed the patents instead of suing over them.

Terrible_Toe

You should paper trade options at first because there are so many greeks that can wildly smoke your positions without a clear understanding of your bet. I would look up all the greeks and understand their relationship to option prices and their relationship to other greeks. IE Delta and Gammas relationship. Thetas relationship with expiry dates. IV crushes. Options are cool because you get leverage but leverage != to Genius. Paper trade for a while because you will lose your shirt for just existing if you buy the wrong options at the wrong time.

Nietzscher

I think the Nuclear sector holds massive potential in the next decade, but I'm not knowledgeable about the sector to feel comfortable with single stock picks. So, I used 'liberatoon day' for a first tranche in a Nuclear/Uranium ETF (IE000M7V94E1). Have been DCAing since April to further build up the position and am set up to buy another tranche during a bigger pullback.

Gom_KBull

i missed you, NOW 🅱️IE

KaffiKlandestine

there is so much cash on the sidelines really hard to crash the whole market when so many people missed the rally. That being said the ai stocks can definitely drop like 50% and still be up for the year. IE pltr,

alex206

Every month at work we would look at a report of how many of our users were still using IE 6. Just waiting and waiting for the day we didn't have to support it anymore.

DuePomegranate

The idea is that the allocation between savings and investments should be based on what YOU need to save up for within ~5 years. First things first, don’t even invest until you have saved up 3-6 months worth of expenses. This is your emergency fund which you don’t touch unless you really need to. Next, take a look at what homes around you (or in your target area) cost and what you can reasonably afford. How much do you need for downpayment? How many year is a reasonable target to buy a home? If you can target home purchase within 5 years, then work out how much you need to save per month to afford the downpayment, with some inflation built in. This will just be savings, maybe bonds, but not stocks as the stock market could crash when you are about to buy the home. Then whatever else is left after expenses and savings goes to your investments for the long-term (retirement, predominantly). If the house is more than 5 years away, then you can invest towards it, but as you get closer to the target year, you sell some to lock-in your profits and move that to the savings pot for downpayment. If you’re going to wipe out your entire portfolio to buy a home, I’m going to say that you can’t afford this home yet. Within your investments, 10% fun money for trading is ok. Be careful of letting it become more than that because I can see your gambling mentality showing. Majority can be in one or more index funds. If you absolutely don’t know anything, a global equities index fund is easiest instead of trying to balance US vs non-US yourself. One of these, probably. You have to scroll down quite far to find what the ticker is in your preferred stock exchange and currency. https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B4L5Y983#stock-exchange https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BK5BQT80.#stock-exchange https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000716YHJ7#stock-exchange

draculabakula

IF you are pointing out that the bubble is going to burst and some companies are going to go under, making way for new AI companies, I agree with you. My point is that I think the big 3 AI companies I already mentioned will likely capture some of the AI market (Google and Amazon more than Microsoft) by incorporating AI services into their already robust user and business services. Meaning that they will likely increase their revenue with AI a bit to add to their already massive businesses but since they own all cloud computing between the three of them, they will all extract revenue from any other AI business either way IE: openAI currently pays tens of billions annually to Microsoft (in the form of equity), Amazon, and Google in webservices. If these companies ended up losing money on their own AI efforts , they will still make money from AI overall. Likewise, because the cost to Google, Amazon and Miscrsoft to offer services is so much less than other companies, it's going to devalue AI services. For example, Google offers AI services as part of their G-suite service that millions of people and businesses already subscribe to.

Numerous_Priority_61

I don't think Moore's law is relevant here. Chips have not been doubling at the rate they used to for about a decade. The chips they are coming out with are incrementally better, but more power efficient. And at this scale the main cost of operating the chips is their electricity usage. So I don't know if there is a Moore's law for electrical usage but just watch Jensen Juans introduction of the newest chips. He is not emphasizing the fact that these chips are x amount more powerful than the previous generation, they are primarily focusing on their ability to use less power, and integrate with one another in a more efficient way. IE they can connect multiple chips to generate better results, or more compute power, and do it more efficiently. Its the same idea with Apples M1/M2/M3 etc. Even with their M5 chips they are still focusing on its power compared to the M1 chip, not the M4 or M3. It makes for better marketing. They can only fit so many transistors on a chip, they are already at the atomic scale. It becomes impractical after time. But next up is quantum computing, maybe, and we'll see what happens there.

metaridley18

No, obviously the models I'm talking about don't show that or I wouldn't be talking about them. Many models with a fixed % withdrawal rate require bonds or they'll underperform due to sequence of returns risk, but sequence of returns risk is literally caused by fixed withdrawal strategies. Again, I know I'm an investing radical, but markets work and mathematically pure equities positions outperform mixed asset allocation funds. Holding a bond position is keeping some of your assets out of the market in case of a market downturn, IE *timing the market*. I can't remember if links in posts get removed here or not, but https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGzgsSXdPjo

TheDeHymenizer

if you think my point is 100% of the time more information = higher prices then I'm doing a bad job explaining this. What I would say though is that more information TENDS to lead to higher prices and the few times it hasn't are essentially the market correcting themself. IE Private Equity discovering Assets > Enterprise Value permeantly priced that in. Bad subprime mortgages temporarily reduced them. But much like everything decreases are temporary while increases are permeant.

TheDeHymenizer

>Your example suggests that the market is overvalued and not efficiently priced, otherwise there would still be more PE deals. No. It would suggest the past was undervalued. A healthy market isn't one where a small group of people are going around liquidating companies. And naturally speaking these would always be bidded into not being profitable anymore in a world where it does happen. So if we were both 1980's corporate raiders looking for these we would both be bidding the price up until it no longer exists. IE the market was undervalued then not overvalued now (in regards to this example). >our argument also can’t account for 2008-09 when stocks were woefully underpriced despite similar levels of information. It similarly cannot account for the 2010 flash crash. The fact is that the market has boomed and busted for centuries and the CAPE ratio is decent at spotting an extremely overvalued market. This cycle has continued despite more and more efficiency of information. Lol liquidity events are a thing and if an example of 1980's corporate raiding happening in the modern era happened - I'd imagine they'd of been purchased during those windows. While the market wasn't being efficiently priced.

TheDeHymenizer

> Right but there is not a relationship between more information and higher prices There absolutely is though. IE the past undervalued companies compared to the present. An example would be privateequtiy's main business model used to be buy a company then sell all the assets for more then they purchased the company for. This play is virtually nonexistent today because that play is pretty much entirely priced into the market.

CaptianNemo2001

Most people don’t play the stocks and sadly their retirement savings is too willing to play with Nvidia and AI and Tesla. They will lose a lot eventually. The administration has so many half baked ideas it’s rather sad. Every opportunity to do something positive, and instead it’s a FIRE. Worse, all the hype on AI vs what it can actually do. And it can’t do very much. As to recession, nobody in power or with money wants to willingly promote such a thing, except the president, until they extract themselves from the system. IE find some suckers to buy in.

PaperHandsTheDip

Depends what you're buying calls on. I didn't really punt into anything "super high risk". IE: No tech, no QQQ, etc. I had some 1dte spy, but closed them. My closest expiration is currently 4+ months away, on healthcare companies.

Current_Animator7546

You think we start to see more varied moves from the Tech stocks? IE winners vs looses as we get deeper into AI?

motorbikler

I've been programming for a long, long time, and AI is _not_ the best thing to ever happen to my productivity. I'll paste one of my old comments comparing what it was like to develop 25 and even just 15 years ago to now: > Set up on-prem, like literally on your premises servers. REST was just finished as somebody's doctoral dissertation in 2000 and not yet standard practice. The difficulty of writing even just a basic CRUD app with no framework whatsoever was very high. Everything in Designing Data Intensive Applications was yet to be even discovered. > No Cloudflare to load balance, CDNs barely a thing, scale it up all yourself manually. Buildings full of people to manage this stuff. > And. AND! Have you worked with browsers before they were evergreen? Netscape, IE 6? Holy hell it was bad. > But the typing thing is somehow much different than that? > With AI I can create things, sometimes, in hours that would take me days, or days that would take me weeks. But before all the stuff I listed above, much of what I do would not be feasible at all, or what I did in hours would take years to accomplish, and many many millions of dollars. > AI companies are solving the easiest part of the entire problem, and not even well, and people think it's different.

PaperHandsTheDip

TLDR: Try to land a job in big tech / internships. \--- It's basically a "you gotta figure it out" type of thing. You can't find any tutorials on it - because telling you how to start or where to look invites competition. Anything you read online won't work. Arbitrage is a cutthroat zero sum game (negative sum when including execution costs). More or less only one person / system can do it for any given market. A good system tends to either capture 100% of the opportunity - or none. One of my current ones is over 90% caught by me, and over a 90% winrate. IE: It doesn't lose money over any 24hr period. However... it also cannot grow. If I tell people where I'm operating these days - or what markets can be arbbed there is literally no upside. I've poured years of R&D into the space. That'd be giving away years of alpha / proprietary research for free. Basically you just gotta try & fail. I've personally attempted over 200 different strategies / approaches and only 6 actually worked. \--- If you want relevant skills - try to get a job / internships in big tech. They are 100x easier than the HFT space imo. I previously did internships at both Google & Microsoft during my undergrad & was offered full time jobs by both. The interviews / coding questions are much easier than the types of problems approached in HFT in my experience. Big tech jobs are SIGNIFICANTLY less competitive imo, but the skillset is somewhat similar. Things like pay are reflected in that (big tech doesn't pay you 3-5mil / annum, which I have made before via this type of work)

CoughRock

this will pretty much open the flood gate to evade tariff. IE: champagne is a trademark product that has to grown from the champagne region. So by default it cannot be produce in usa unless us decided to invade france and occupied the champagne region. zero tariff bam. Then all chinese car maker has to do is trademark their car or whatever to be a regional specific item that cannot be legally produce else where. zero tariff.

CoughRock

you got to follow berserk's rule for sacrificing. IE: you cannot sacrifice something you don't care about to gain something that you do. That's trying to sell garbage for gold. Not even satan is dumb enough to take that deal. More appropriate sacrifice deal would be trade both your balls or eyes or something important for gain. So you are forced to make a hard choice.

PaperHandsTheDip

I bought May 620c's today. I'm hoping it'll run up / bounce. \--- My "loss protection" was that this bet was cheaper / higher payoff if it hits (but larger loss if it misses). I just punted less into it. I accept the loss if I'm wrong. IE: It took less capital to make the bet "meta probably bounces"

PaperHandsTheDip

One last one for ya'll. Cause some of you didn't like my other comments and it's hilarious to me. Markets are discrete. Continuous models are all approximations & are wrong. They can't model markets accurately. \--- Why? The only time markets ever move / change is when someone does something in them. IE: An event. When someone buys, sells, moves their order, etc. Those are events. They happen in SEQUENCE. It's quite literally impossible for multiple events to happen at the same time. Sure "at the same time" but when you zoom down to nanoseconds - its sequentail. Markets are quite literally built to be discrete and process events in sequence. Internally order matching engines use queues. Why??? Imagine there was only 1 item for sale and 2 people wanted to buy it. The guy who gets it is whoever gets there first / clicks buy first. If both click "at the same time" one will always get it first. Turns out its an arms race that is down to double digit nanoseconds now to get these trades (ie: arbitrage). Welcome to HFT. Continuous models only hold true if events can happen in parallel. Well - markets are built using queues. They're discrete in practice - and always will be.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm just trying to argue from a game theory perspective. Multiple games can (and do) exist at once, even in the same universe. It's weird / hard to explain. \--- For example, take war. Why do people / countries go to war? Well - it's because I believe I can gain more than I spend. Where does the gain come from?? The... other guy. His loss is my gain. We BOTH spend money fighting. IF I win, I get a gain. He takes a loss trying to defend himself, and a FURTHER loss on the resource which I took. \--- Markets are similar. War is negative sum. Markets are 0 in that aspect. My gains come from you. \--- We can ALL win - yes - but someone always wins harder than someone else. In a positive sum environment - you made 5% returns, I made 20% returns! Awesome! We both made money! \--- In a 0 sum environment - I made 20%, you made 5%, but when normalized I actually got like \~7.5% more total ownership, meanwhile you lost \~7.5% total ownership. IE: You lost power. \--- In a negative sum environment (ie: war) - I made 20%, and spent 10% to get it. 10% of my gains came from your resources. My gains are +10% after expenses. You made 5%, but spent 10% to "defend yourself" so actually lost like 5%. When normalized - I win.

PaperHandsTheDip

I should add to this comment - there is a mathematical proof that maps to the below that shows the average person underperforms the index. Empirical evidence maps (92% underperform "buy and hold" on average). It's because of the 0 sum representation. You can actually prove it using math. It's a basis of HFT!!! IE: I build arbitrage hft systems, and the 0 sum model is a basis for it. I'm not joking lol.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's why everyone loves loss porn. But people hate it when you post a thesis, it works and you net massive gains. \--- IE: Today I bought \~$500k of PFE and I'm up $180k on the day. They don't like that they missed it... even though I posted it when I entered.

sabatiel180

I don't think everything should be going up. IE, gold and spy. Not saying anything particular here except: **Watch out for you cornhole, bud!**

Adept-Bet-2420

Using IE these days gives you an Edge