IE

flaggon_waggon

Don't bother man. These dipshits literally don't know what they're talking about & when someone tells them information that goes against their flawed knowledge they don't even bother googling to confirm. If anything this guy is even more cringe b/c he tells YOU to look it up lmfao. IE: How many people in this thread alone still parroting "3k wRiTe OfF fOr ThE nExT 20 yEaRs!" not knowing how carryover works. I genuinely wonder if they file their own taxes incorrectly and never get audited or at least have the self-awareness to leave it to a CPA. Also for anyone wondering - all you have to do is look up Section 1256 Contracts.

PaperHandsTheDip

Execution costs are a thing. If you immediately buy a contract and sell it, you lose money (ie: bid/ask spread). It's large on options - often sitting below 1%, but I've seen it break 10% during volatility. That's how much money you lose / pay just to enter into your position. IE (extreme example): If bid/ask is $90/100, you pay $100 to buy, but only get $90 to sell. You buy, the price goes up 10%, so you sell. Guess what? You actually lose $1, because you bought for $100, then sold for $90 + 10% = $99. Net loss = $1. Plus - if you're doing this all day you're losing theta throughout the entire day. It's the cost of leverage. The "average cost" to hold your contract till EOD is the extrinsic value of the contract - which for 0DTE on SPX as seen in OPs contracts was at least 20% of the contracts value. That's worth exactly $0 at the EOD - meaning you lose that on 0DTE's as well.

PooPooPointBoiz

Fuck bros. NVDA calls or puts tomorrow? On one hand, the MAG7 have been spending ungodly amounts of money on AI research (IE NVDA chips). But on the other hand, anything less than a perfect earnings report will cause this shit to tank. I'm torn dudes.

Successful-Tea-5733

So you are going to tell me that we were better educating our students in the 1920's? Even the 1960's I don't think I would agree that we had anywhere near the intelligence we have today. If you want to tell me that school students were broadly better in the 60's I might agree with that. The issue there is less educational and more demographic (IE, it's a statistical fact that students who come from a 2-parent household tend to do better in school than those raised by single parents and we have far more single parents today than we had in the 60's) (And don't come at me "I was raised by a single parent and I graduated from MIT." Yes, you can do great coming froma single parent household, this is specifcally broad statistics which are not disputed). And to add, I don't see where simple labor will be replaced by AI as easily as other jobs.

KingRegardothe2nd

That sort of says something about you lol. Find some interesting and or exciting hobbies. Go buy some good drugs. Vape some DMT. Do personally rewarding things, IE feed the soul more.

Capn-Jack11

IE there is no particular massacre you can point to so you just have to throw around loose ideas accidental and indirect deaths as all intentional cold blooded civilian murders.  Cant even point to a single American massacre lol. Not one! Not once have we mass murdered protestors in recent history! We had plenty of opportunity to. 2020 protests, civil rights protests, many racial protests in fact. Clashing between sides, sure, not mass murder by tanks of innocents in the thousands.

TreGet234

I'm quite fascinated by the near perfect linear performance of euro inflation linked bonds https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B0M62X26#chart (switch currency to euro) It's had a pretty consistent 2.5% growth rate for the last 20 years while other bond etfs (including american tips) have been all over the place. Now, today 2.5% isn't much but the consistency is incredibly appealing. If i buy bonds i don't want them to bounce around like shitcoins.

Aleucard

There's two basic notions at work in the decision making sectors. One is hankering and fiending for the day where they don't need to have any human workers at all save for personal amusement and can scrape off the bottom 95% of the population entirely. The other is taking this for an opportunity to drop wages and compensation even further to cut their bottom line a few more pennies. The former are largely pig ignorant of the realities of the tech as it exists today (IE it has no idea what objective truth and fact even is, and can never learn because of how it functions), which is likely where the biggest shockwaves from the AI bubble popping will come from.

PaperHandsTheDip

It's always been min-max extracting value from workers. That hasn't changed -- people are just more aware of it. I'd argue it happens as people age & become more aware of how the world works. We used to have 12 hour work days and shittier work conditions (ie: look at how farming, mining & other industries used to be). \> We are seeing absolutely horrid job growth 100% true. The job losses we've seen under this admin are the largest in modern history. It's very alarming, yes. Largely driven by reduction of white collar jobs. There are a lot of "bullshit" jobs out there - those are being hit particularly hard. Also the entire tech sector (and several others). \> Jobs absolutely equal the economy We're in a K shaped economy. Those doing well and doing very well, and those who are struggling are really struggling. It's not so much a black and white / universal case. As long as the upper end of the K shaped economy are doing well & spending money, the economy will keep chugging along just fine. It doesn't need to bring everyone up with it to succeed. I'd argue as we get more advanced tech / automation it becomes even more and more polarizing. We're seeing this in tech right now. For evidence of this (economy doing fine) - look at consumer spending. It's at ATH's and trending up. Economy doesn't care if 100 people spend $100, of 50 people spend $200. Company will make $10k in either case. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96) \--- IE: For the "K shaped" economy - strong engineers can utilize AI to drastically accelerate their workloads. What used to take me personally 2 weeks can now be done in literally a single day. It's no longer "be a code monkey for 8 hrs", it's "prompt the agent, get the output, tweak it / prod it a little, modify the output where needed / verify correctness". You get the same output in 30 minutes. A strong engineer changed from someone who could pound out code like crazy (but struggled with the macro understanding) - to someone who can understand the ideas / theory & verify correctness. The valuable skillsets are shifting and people need to adapt or get left behind. I'm seeing that in all my circles - in particular software. The "strong / good" engineers just got even that much better.

PaperHandsTheDip

Posts like this encourage me to buy. Of course we're past the peak on several tech companies -- we're actually close to the bottom on many imo. IE: Look at the valuation of MSFT. It's only been this low four times in the last decade, and only stayed this low for 4-20 weeks. I'm seeing a similar pattern in quite a few of the big tech companies. I started buying into tech last week [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi)

InarasMal

Primarily women's tennis but I'll take anything where the book and % bets are in large disparity. Like, the Super Bowl this year was 50% Pats so I took Seahawks but I'm not a football guy for sure. General strategy is just to fade the public. IE always bet against the Dodgers type stuff

caller-number-four

> Holy cow 100k for credit cards is a lot, how did you get them? Don't know about OP, but there was a time when Citi would let you combine the credit limits of multiple accounts if you closed them. IE: Account A had a 25k limit and account B had a 15k limit. Transfer that 15k limit to account A and close B. They don't do that anymore.

PaperHandsTheDip

It's not a SaaS doomsday by any means, I agree - but it's an end to it's growth which is what the market has reacted to. It'll be on a more or less "sustained / slow decline" basis from here on out. Existing customers will likely continue their contracts, but getting new clients / customers will be much more difficult. Why would anyone new use SaaS when you can get a robot to do it for you -- for free. Hire 1 internal engineer to manage it, replace the 10 you outsourced. \--- \> better agility Generally true, which often means they're the first to adapt new technologies. \> because everything breaks when you try to migrate to a new system. It's not about migration - it's about any new systems can now be done much quicker / cheaper. Hence my COBOL / legacy argument. Existing systems won't be migrated, I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing FUTURE systems won't be produced the same way. \> higher risk tolerance It is a little higher risk, but really not much higher if you have an experienced engineer directing it. IE: My existing project is \~80% vibe coded. It's high frequency trading (arbitrage) systems. That is incredibly sensitive software that can lose fucktons of money if there is even a single bug in the system. The means in which the code was produced do not matter - just that it's correct.

PaperHandsTheDip

It was a use case, yes, but the demand wasn't there. Yes -- people were using it, but not on a large scale. It was largely just research driven. There was no expected uptick in demand for them until \~2020 when things started just upticking a little. Investors anticipated a boom in 2022 - that's when we saw nvidia's PE spike over 100. [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/pe-ratio](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/pe-ratio) In 2015 GPU's were not even known to be "the solution" for AI. It was one use case - but people thought ASICs were going to win given they're more energy efficient / generally better suited for singular tasks. IE: see TPU's, which google started producing around the same time. It's what they STILL use -- their models are not trained on GPUs, they're on TPUs which are asics. Google could have won the AI market with their TPUs - but kept access internal up until 2018, and only in \~2020 were they really "available" to rent. Nvidia won because of CUDA / open access / easy to buy - despite an inferior piece of hardware (for training NN's). Then they scaled up aggressively from there - and market mostly settled on nvidia. Asics still have a very good chance of winning - see how google is expanding their TPUs (ie: META is in talks to deploy their TPU's in their AI DC's over GPUs)

blorg

That's because the exchange rate between USD and EUR changed. Both of you bought and are holding the exact same bundle of stocks, which are worth exactly the same. The only difference is what currency you sell them into. Yours "rose" 17% because the dollar dropped. If the dollar drops, it requires more dollars to buy the same thing. Hence- the price goes up *in dollars*. His only rose 1.5% because the euro appreciated against the dollar. If you bought your VOO in euros, and then sold it in euros, you'd have the exact same return. If he bought and sold his VUSA in dollars, he'd have exactly the same as you. *In dollars.* You can [compare this here](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09), see the difference when you change the currency (top right of the chart) from EUR to USD. It goes from 1 year: -1.08% (in EUR) to 1 year: +12.94% (in USD). That's including dividends, if you exclude them the numbers are -2.10% EUR, +11.77% USD. VOO is up 11.48% according to Google Finance- almost exactly the same.

PaperHandsTheDip

Close expiration, goodluck! I hope we see $440 by then, we'd both be printing hard! The CC's are netting me \~1% / day at the moment for a \~0.5-1% OTM. IE: I sold 402.5 CC's for $4 each, that expire EOD weds. As long as it's below 406.5 by EOD weds I'm better off with the CC's. BUT - I'm closing them at market open irregardless of outcome. Will reset then as well (either buy or sell shares to bring margin back to \~300%). I'm only using the CC's due to high leverage. I don't really like running them on things I'm bullish on when they're in dips. Look at the PE of MSFT here, it's fucked. [https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi](https://imgur.com/a/5ogcvFi) We've only been this low 3 times in the last DECADE, and during which we stayed at the depressed PE for a total of... 2-4 months. Hence why I think 1 month may be risky, personally if buying calls I'd target 4-6 months.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> the theories persist because they are right more often than no You only need a single counterexample to invalidate a theory. I'd argue they persist because they are easy to conceptualize & there's a lot of theory / economic topics built on top of them. They're really good estimates, but not an accurate reflection of reality tho. IE: Markets are discrete in practice -- yet many people model them as continuous. Continuous models are just really good approximations - but can never truly reflect the state of the market.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's not really a 1:1 good analogy. Someone else is assuming all the RISK - which typically nets positive returns. Not ALWAYS tho. IE: If they assumed the risk during a 5 year drawdown - they're losing out. The expected value of assuming risk is positive tho (ie: market averages \~10%, bonds average \~4%, the "expected gain" of assuming the risk is the \~5-6% difference.

AluminiumCaffeine

The part I dont get is that peope are saying AI video gen is a bear case, but if it helps bring down production costs seems good for existing distribution IE youtube + nflx right?

PaperHandsTheDip

The only thing that actually moves a stock is if people are buying or selling. I use a bunch of signals -- but my strongest one is sentiment -- as that's what tends to control general market directione. More or less -- hype. If sentiment is poor - people are often selling. If sentiment is good - people are often buying (or not selling). No need to min-max financial statements. All you need to do is take a 30second look at the chart and diff with sentiment. Figure out how the average investor feels - as the average investor trades off emotion. It's fuzzy tho. IE: Today I picked up a decent sized bag of MSFT shares. I have never looked at it's financials. All I see is that it's down on the 1yr, down \~25% in 6 months, and it's MSFT. It has a decent forward P/E, AI exposure & ...it's MSFT. A few guys on WSB's are talking about it, good enough for sentiment for me. It's MSFT -- it'll probably be fine. Never looked at it's financials or AI capex or anything. No need.

quickexhuast

if you were a manufacture, do you target a segment that has no competition, IE EV trucks, or a segment that is growing, IE SUV/Family haulers. You probably target the segment that has no to little competition

slo1111

The best thing is to do what everybody else does, but before they do it. The next best way is to be a long term investor and regularly contribute to some etfs, funds or anything diversified and forget about it. Then the next best way is to ensure you are diversified and don't put all your eggs in one basket and your job can be rebalancing to take advantage of market shifts. IE: Having a little cash on hand for corrections can can go a long way. After that is more of the gambling side of things.  Drive fast and take chances and hope it works out, but know there are significant odds that it won't. I do all the above except the very first item, but amounts invested in each category declines as risk increases.

elgrandorado

I think where some investors get misled is understanding the breakdown of the business. S&P has a larger analytics segment than Moody's but ~40% of their Op Income comes from the ratings business (IE bond issuance fees). That business on it's own ends up commanding a large premium over most because distruption there won't happen until both the structure by which we issue debt and the legal framework on debt both change across most of the world. Private credit has been stepping in to fill some cracks, but I don't know if that's going to be a permanent change. 15-16% of the business is the Dow Jones & S&P Index (boring and steady), and is another extremely durable source of income. Mobility makes up another 10% and that's about to be spun off. The remaining ~35% is the real piece of the pie which could get distrupted. Within that 35% is commodity insights and market intelligence. The treasure trove of data within commodity insights makes it far more durable than the market intelligence business imo, which is the remaining 21%. That's the part of the business which keeps me thinking right now about how to value S&P Global.

PaperHandsTheDip

Depends where you are from too. IE: Canada's brokers often have good promos towards the end of the year. I saw the best one I've ever seen from QTrade last year. 5% bonus on first $15k moved (=$750 cad bonus) and 1% on everything over it, up to a max of $5k. If you moved $100k over in November last year you'd have made: `5% * 15k ($750) + 1% * 85k ($850) = $1,600 --- 1.6% bonus / annum.` The holding period required was 1 year - just have funds by EOY 2026.

Damtomillion

The tensions are growing fast, mostly uncovered by news. If it gets more intense or kinetic: Everthing defence in this region finally goes vertical e.g. Mitsubishi, IHI, Hyundai, HanwhaAero, HyundaiRot, KoreaAero, Lignex1, KawaHeavy, Mitsubishi, StEngineer, HanwhaSys etc. or ETF IE000C7EUDG1 All Taiwanese companies e.g TSMC would see cash outflow. Shipping companies, Tourism etc. Would face major problems. Western money would have problems or loose their chinese assets. Oil price and commodities goes way higher. Beforehand China/ Brics would restrict and store Essential materials and prop the money reserves e.g gold. Some effects you can already see...

Pleasant-Shallot-707

Microsoft won the browser wars. When Chrome came along it took over because it was a novel browser that fixed so many issues that the IE hegemony had allowed to linger.

oldirishfart

Microsoft won the browser war, killed Netscape by the IE3/IE4 timeframe, and it took an antitrust verdict to break that.

Aevaris_

I hear and understand your point, but I don't agree with it. I expect the AI wars to be browser wars 2.0 and Microsoft didnt do so great with IE and Edge despite winning the OS wars and pushing their tools hard. People, especially companies, will move to the best tool, not the embedded tool. Asking Copilot to process and summarize a spreadsheet vs Claude is laughable. Claude does a significantly better job. I also expect Microsofts general moat to erode. Linux distros and ChromeOS have become sufficient for most use cases and we will see adoption there as costs rise.

twitterfluechtling

Was wondering about how this matches the performance of my own stock funds (S&P 500 Information Tech USD (Acc), IE00B3WJKG14), up 6.5% YoY after last Fridays recovery. Solution: It's in Euro. Your 15% gain is in USD. In comparison, STOXX Europe 600 EUR (DE0002635307, covering broad range of industries) is YoY 14.2%... (Wait two months, though, YoY will look amazing when last years reference is in the April dip :-))

Squodge

This is a really interesting discussion that I hadn’t really considered up until this point. Currently I have a position into one of the all world funds, but I hadn’t really considered that because of the way the fund is set up, it’s really tilted towards tech and USA funds. Off the back of that im wondering if I should pivot away to an equal weighted fund, but then it becomes a chat around “diversification”, but into funds that are proven, or moving into much better diversification, but on a fund that hasn’t been open as long. https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-comparison.html?isin=IE000OEF25S1&isin=IE0000QLH0G6 Curious, is anyone else weighing this up at the moment?

msnplanner

OP. You've got to make hard decisions right now. Do you have ANY reason beyond hope and desperation to think your options are going to recover? Most likely you do not. Close the positions. Put the money in something Much Much safer. Do NOT look at the option prices. God knows its crushing when you close a position only to see it recover almost immediately. But if you have no idea which way its going to go, its blind luck whether it will go up or down. Next, learn from your mistakes. Don't put short-medium term savings in risky assets. Don't play with options until you have a really good understanding of the underlying assets (IE if you play with options on stocks, you should have years investing in stocks with a good track record... I'd say the same thing for metals as well). And I wouldn't bet large percentages of your assets on options at any point of your life, but that's just me. If you have decades of experience and a winning track record, you may have a reason to do so. Here's the silver lining(s). 1. 25K seems like a lot, and its not the cheapest lesson, but $25K is not that much money in the long run (praying you are young right now). 2. You have years of investment losses you get to write off (3K a year...don't forget to carry over the remaining amount to the next year). [3.You](http://3.You) hopefully learned valuable lessons about managing your risk now before a real crash comes. If you have your ass out then, you could lose soo much more.

Moepenmoes

It's this one IE00B0M63953

tachyonvelocity

It seems irrational, but here's an actual answer: Commodities, IE, products with high competition, command low valuations because competition lowers margins and it is easier for new competitors to come in, increasing risk. All these companies Mag7, software, were not priced like commodities, but as if nobody can compete with them. We know one specific model, Anthropic, is quite ahead in coding tools. However, all these models are somewhat the same, even those open source from China. So they are commoditized. We know new coding tools seem to make programming easier, SWEs less relevant, any single software less relevant because it's becoming easier for new software to come online. That makes software commoditized. The market is currently questioning, the capex of all these new data centers, of all these new coding tools, do not actually make the incumbents better off, what it does is makes AI consumers better off. For example it's like solving cancer. If a company has solved cancer without any patent protection, all other companies can copy it. However, since all companies can now copy it, and there were previous health solutions relying on cancer not being solved, it actually makes all companies worse off, except for healthcare consumers. In this analogy, Anthropic, to a lesser extent free Chinese open source, is the one solving cancer, Mag7 are all the companies able to copy the process, the health solutions relying on cancer not being solved are the software companies. The neoclouds are a proxy of Mag 7 without the Mag 7 diversification. Why would the market reward companies to spend trillions developing a great thing yes, but a great thing that is essentially free and competing with open source? So who are the beneficiaries? Clearly the beneficiaries are AI consumers, and AI picks and shovels because everyone trying to copy each other increases the use of tools necessary for AI development. This includes the semiconductors, which have obviously outperformed, and anyone currently paying money for things AI can do easier. This also isn't software, but companies using legacy or past software that AI has made easier, so a lot of main street companies that buy software. Of note are Alphabet and Meta. Alphabet and Meta are actually both in part "AI consumers" because of ads and social media. Social media ecosystems such as Youtube and Instagram, with greater AI usage and consumption, increases engagement and thus increases ad incentive, which is why they have outperformed.

tachyonvelocity

It seems irrational, but here's an actual answer: Commodities, IE, products with high competition, command low valuations because competition lowers margins and it is easier for new competitors to come in, increasing risk. We know one specific model, Anthropic, is quite ahead in coding tools. However, all these models are somewhat the same, even those open source from China. So they are commoditized. We know new coding tools seem to make programming easier, SWEs less relevant, any single software less relevant because it's becoming easier for new software to come online. That makes software commoditized. The market is currently questioning, the capex of all these new data centers, of all these new coding tools, do not actually make the incumbents better off, what it does is makes AI consumers better off. For example it's like solving cancer. If a company has solved cancer without any patent protection, all other companies can copy it. However, since all companies can now copy it, and there were previous health solutions relying on cancer not being solved, it actually makes all companies worse off, except for healthcare consumers. In this analogy, Anthropic, to a lesser extent free Chinese open source, is the one solving cancer, Mag7 are all the companies able to copy the process, the health solutions relying on cancer not being solved are the software companies. The neoclouds are a proxy of Mag 7 without the Mag 7 diversification. Why would the market reward companies to spend trillions developing a great thing yes, but a great thing that is essentially free and competing with open source? So who are the beneficiaries? Clearly the beneficiaries are AI consumers, and AI picks and shovels because everyone trying to copy each other increases the use of tools necessary for AI development. This includes the semiconductors, which have obviously outperformed, and anyone currently paying money for things AI can do easier. This also isn't software, but companies that legacy or past software that AI has made easier, so a lot of main street companies that buy software. Of note are Alphabet and Meta. Alphabet and Meta are actually both in part "AI consumers" because of ads and social media. Social media ecosystems such as Youtube and Instagram, with greater AI usage and consumption, increases engagement and thus increases ad incentive, which is why they have outperformed.

PraetorianFury

Micron trailing ratio (IE the ratio using actual information, not wallstreet's hopes and dreams) is over 36 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/key-statistics/ SanDisk doesn't have a trailing ratio at all due to spinning off of Western Digital. Some sources actually have it with a *negative* ratio.

2dP_rdg

That's because economics and capitalism argue that value extraction is "the best thing" for the economy. IE, instead of lowering prices, just increase your margins. Everything is better when the rich are richer, not when the poor can afford things.

Blackbird_FD3S

Retail does not understand how tech actually works. So the selling right now is indiscriminate. Its like someone threw a single chair in the middle of the mall lobby, and now a riot has started IE momentum down. Its as simple as that.

PaperHandsTheDip

Not at all lol. Volume already existed and people were already trading it. That implied that arb was possible & I knew that before I even started. All I had to do was actually build the arb system. I got lucky there wasn't much competition - so it was easy at the start. The beautiful thing about arb is it'll always exist in discrete markets. IE: HFT accounts for \~50% of our equities volume, and arb an estimated \~20% of that. Arb exists \*everywhere\* that people are trading. All you need is volume then to build the program. How is that lucky? I knew it was possible, I knew there was volume & I knew there was likely not much competition. The only condition you really need is volume - the rest doesn't really matter (arb will always be possible for the fastest player)

HotTruth999

They’re good at trying to put their competition out of business and locking in enterprise customers who have no wish to remain. As soon as they can escape they run for the hills. MSFT is nothing more than an expensive China-lite borrower of other companies’ innovation. What do I mean? MSDOS was copied from a 3rd party QDOS for 50k MS networking as copied from Novell The Microsoft mouse was copied from Xerox The GUI on Windows was copied from Xerox & Apple Excel was copied from Lotus 123 Exchange was copied from Lotus Notes Word was copied from WordPerfect IE was copied from Mosaic and Netscape Windows NT was copied from Digital Equipment Corporation VAX VMS Azure was copied from AWS Xbox was copied from Sony ps Etc etc etc They haven’t got a creative bone in their body. Their lack of meaningful innovation is why they put billions into Open AI and that’s now blowing up in their face. If I owned it I’d be selling before Wall Street work out they’ve been duped.

Commercial-Co

Only to people living in IE 🤭

FijiBeef

IE is SoCal brotha

Commercial-Co

Thats east of pomona. More like IE than Socal

PaperHandsTheDip

yah, always. The only time you wouldn't is with CSPs (you often want the assignment). You use 0DTE's to get insane amounts of leverage (like 100x+). IE: I've played OTM calls that going for \~20c for the SPY before. Assignment of a single one of those would have been \~68k.

PaperHandsTheDip

Depends on how you model it. It's can actually be positive, negative & zero sum all at the same time. IE: Positive - markets tends to grow in value over time, everyone benefits Zero sum - model it such that all ownership between everyone sums up to 100%. The only thing that changes is how much of the pie you own. Negative sum - zero sum model with execution costs / add friction. A large part of automated trading tries to play the zero sum games (ie: arbitrage) -- which accounts for an estimated \~20% of HFT trade volume

BulkySimple6044

Maybe -- alot of the categories are less competitive then others IE I was in the marketing one and didn't have that much momentum -- just a PR person + a successful 5M seed round.

rufustheruthlez

Yeah that’s fair I agree with that perspective, big companies squeezing other big companies is pretty much how those wheels keep spinning. IE google/meta squeezing Amazon for ads.

Luster-Purge

That's the point. Certain interests use the funding bills as cover for making other things into law IE trying to steal Shuttle Discovery through the BBB.

krlooss

Wisdomtree Silver 3X Daily Leveraged TDG PCFH | IE00B7XD2195 

dsbllr

Which real world use case is Anthropic better at? Coding yes maybe but everything else it's Gemini. Infact Kimi K2 is probably better than Claude. Long-term price and availability will matter way more than being just a tad bit better. This is why distribution will win and only one with the biggest distribution muscle is Google. If they put Gemini on Google.com you bet your ass in a year it'll be the biggest model. Don't you remember how dominant IE was? They hite dethroned real quick by Chrome

Aevaris_

It's also about future profitability. Google won Apple, so Gemini will run in every mobile device, chromium device, and Mac. Anthropic will (likely) win the business segment. Microsoft is stuck with OpenAI but who will want to use it? Will it drive more people to their products? Will it increase the value of their products so they can charge more? Sure it's injected in all their products but that's just like the browser wars. And that sure went well with IE and Edge.

azure275

Here's a chart to a very similar stock to VOO denominated in Euro [https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09#overview](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09#overview) True return 1.5% when denominated in Euro. Returns 10x that when denominated in dollars

dvdmovie1

Might also want to look at IE, HBM. Latter was downgraded today so might get a bit of a pullback (although maybe not as copper continues to ramp.)

ecoburner87

IE, it popped last week then came back to earth and looks like it'll retract that move soon

blorg

> Which wiped out over half of the SP500 gain. It wiped out all of the S&P500 gain if you were looking at it in EUR or CHF. https://imgur.com/a/zyQ85vb https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09#overview

I-IV-I64-V-I

to track Congressmen and senator's trades. I'm not going to camp the costco to see if Mitch McConnell buys a bar. IE you can track trades here [https://www.quiverquant.com/stock/SLV/](https://www.quiverquant.com/stock/SLV/) but they seem to not be very active in the paper metals

KeyYogurtcloset5763

Late to the game but here's my take and some relative bullish facts FSD + Robotaxi: Cheapest implementation Tesla is one of very few players going camera only, the argument is that if successful, it becomes an extremely cheap option that will disrupt the market. On top of that, Tesla is also one of the few players that is fully vertically self sufficient. (this is also why BYD is kicking Tesla's butt in cheaper cars) The 'delay' in their FSD technology vs competitors is mostly discounted by bulls because: People are betting on Camera only to eventually be successful in the next 12-18 months. Tesla has a much stronger ability to scale and catch up and overtake competitors purely by being able to flood the market and field way more vehicles. TAM: While the overall 'ride share + taxi' market is only projected to be $300B in 2030, bulls project that this technology is so disruptive that it will become much cheaper than owning a car outright and will bleed the car owner market which is currently at $2.6T in 2026 ( a much bigger market) Robotics: By all accounts, Optimus probably isn't priced in too much right now. But the idea is Tesla being a 'manufacturer' and vertically integrated will similarly help it scale much more efficiently. IE. Energy, AI, Chips, manufacturing etc...

PaperHandsTheDip

It's moreso literally over 99% of silver traded is paper silver. IE: it doesn't actually exist, it's just a claim to future silver. Estimates range to as much as paper vs real silver is over 250:1. Shanghai isn't accepting paper silver, so there is a massive premium there

I-IV-I64-V-I

I feel like i'm shilling QQ- i legitimately do not pay for it and use the free version, and find it useful. This site does it for you [https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/](https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/) they also have an X account, but i hate X you can also follow bots on X that track HUGE naked positions, because the insiders are getting very blatant with insider trading. Their twitter shows the interesting trades mostly - that is because a lot of the trades congress people make are boring and not insidery or they are degenerate gamblers and trading a lot. They even break it down by sub commitee IE If you look here [https://www.quiverquant.com/stock/UNH/](https://www.quiverquant.com/stock/UNH/) most of the sellers recently are on the subcommittee of health - aka they are the ones who make the rules for the companies they buy.

Such_Coin

IV works opposite with metals than stocks. IE price drops vol drops

BCRD15

Why 1 stock instead of 1 etf that contains the best companies? Check https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000YYE6WK5. Not a Financial advice!

CoughRock

if you remember magnesium and cobalt shortage from a decade ago. Every one thought commodity price would go up forever. It turns out china just invest and developed alternative chemistry that use other metal alloy. So if silver got too expensive, alternative alloy will be used instead. IE: copper nickel zinc alloy with oxide layer for corrosion protection.

adheretohospitality

I have stop losses set up for sure! And I am watching the ratio, I just think it will correct downwards not upwards. IE the ratio going to .3 or .4, or lower

Ardent_Scholar

Agreed. US outlook is not great anyway, not to mention it's not a great feeling to ***fund your own potential invasion.*** It feels, in fact, quite insane. So I'm 100% divested from the US. You could do an All World ex USA type of product if you're looking for maximal diversification: [https://etf.dws.com/en-fi/IE000Z0FC0G5-msci-world-ex-usa-ucits-etf-1d/](https://etf.dws.com/en-fi/IE000Z0FC0G5-msci-world-ex-usa-ucits-etf-1d/) This is not investment advice though. You make your own decisions.

GlobalResolution77

Bought a few today also at 368. Think they're undervalued on a forward basis. **Forward P/E at \~11** \- Ridiculous cheap. Sector avg sits at 20x-25x. Earnings expected to grow over 100% year-over-year + management has confirmed 2025 and 2026 HBM supply is already "sold out." **Enterprise Value-to-Cash Flow from Operations (EV/CFO) at 10x-12x** \- They´re Cash-Cow with no debt. Micron funds its massive CAPEX entirely from internal cash flows that protects the balance sheet during the aggressive expansion. **Price-to-Book Value at 6x-7x** (Historically high but viewed alongside Return on Equity. Projected to achieve ROE in the 40-50% range for FY2026 i think is appropriate). Micron's assets are no longer just commodity fab equipment. They now include high-barrier-to-entry HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production lines with significantly higher margins than traditional DRAM. No wonder they are the largest holding of Xtrackers MSCI World Value UCITS ETF - IE00BL25JM42

AntoniaFauci

The answer is... mixed. The Reddit kids have been programmed to hate Primerica and basically anything that isn’t complete do-it-yourself-ultra-speculative-gambling-style investing. But “do it yourself” with stocks isn’t appropriate for everyone. To do it properly, one needs to educate themselves on a variety of topics, including taxation. Then it requires a minimum of several hours per week of staying engaged and informed about your holdings and the market. I compare it to owning a stable of animals. Doing it properly, there should be no days off. Constant care and feeding and monitoring. For some people, they don’t want to do all that daily care and feeding. So for them, having a broker to do that is fine. It’s no different than paying a landscaper to cut your grass and prune your trees. Of course if you do use a broker, then you need to shop around for the best quality and price. The personalfinance advice you got is biased but nothing wrong with it for how you sound. It’s semi-do it yourself. They’re not saying go pick a basket of stocks yourself and trade it. They’re saying buy a handful of ETFs (Exchange traded funds) and let them go on auto-pilot. Those funds use kind of a simplistic method: they basically buy everything in a defined sector. They aren’t really buying and selling stocks on an hourly basis, not trying to seek what’s best and avoid what’s worst. Since it’s simple, they charge a very low percentage rate for that. Funds that are more actively managed, they’ll be more choosy, they’ll buy and sell different stocks during the month to try to do better. That doesn’t always work though. These more active funds charge a higher rate, due to the assumed extra work, and effort, and research and risk. What you *probably* have with the Primerica setup is a non-optimal combination. They probably sell you a fund they’d say is “managed” and charge you that higher percentage, but the investments are really just a basket of other funds that aren’t really managed. The ones you list (IE SMEAX, Etc) are all basic ETFs that you could buy yourself. Primerica likely bundles them up and buys them on your behalf, then charges you a few percent for doing that. The Reddit bros are biased to think that’s a crime, with one lunatic here even calling for “death penalty” for that. Obviously that’s an insane take. Yes, it’s a percentage fee you could shop around and find a better price, or even do it yourself for more like 1 percent or less. But it’s not really different than hiring someone to do tasks for you. It’s your choice, and you’re free to shop around. I’d compare it to buying your own groceries and cooking at home versus dining at a restaurant. Cost vs convenience. Contrary to the Reddit ranting, it seems your inlaws probably did you a huge favor by getting your inheritance involved in equity investing. Without that, most people do bad or unproductive things with their money. Skimming the funds you listed, they’re not top performers, but they still had strong returns in 2025, looked like ranging from 8% to 28%. One is a bit of a balanced fund, the others are basically different forms of stock market investing: large US companies, small growth companies, foreign stocks, etc. Superficially that seems not bad for a 33 year old. But yes, you can buy the same stuff on your own and lower the assumed 3% management cost down to below 1%. How many dollars do you have in these accounts? If it’s $100,000 then bringing the fees down from 3% to 1% saves you $2,000 per year. And so on. Going to add more in a second message.

Tiny-Art7074

It can. [https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/04/180-years-of-market-drawdowns/](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/04/180-years-of-market-drawdowns/) When you adjust for inflation the drawdowns are even worse. Japan's market also had decades of little to no growth (in some sense). In fact for many decades in Japan the most optimal leverage ratio was below 0, IE, bonds or cash.

Bonestalk

WisdomTree Europe Defence UCITS ETF EUR, ISIN IE0002Y8CX98.

MarthaJulietta

Its shown growth. It has initiatives that have potential to do even more IE BNPL, Venmo, Bank Charter, and new integrations with OpenAI and Google that may also provide value

Dissentient

ETFs in EU have multiple listings in different currencies, so you can just compare performance of those listings. Here', for example. https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BMTX1Y45#chart Currency selector on top right.

Smilet82

It is a great vehicle which for whatever reason has no allowance to be sold online Europe or at least Germany - very much looking for something similar to distribute the risk globally on value stocks outside the regular NVIDIA, FB, APPLE SetUp which is rather hard to find... currently working with this one instead which however has a significantly lower longterm gain:Xtrackers MSCI World Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF 1C 1C (IE00BL25JN58)

CoughRock

think about it in your head for a second. Pretend you're a business owner, why would you pay something to something cool ? if they think it's cool they probably will do it for free. You pay to have some else do the boring and painful work. Economic of hiring is about outsource pain and suffering, the more boring and suffering a job has, the more people are willing to pay to get rid of it. IE: lawyer vs artist.

ialsodreamofsushi

Unlike everyone else here I agree, not only that but there is q real threat of military action. IE allies killing each other and escalation beyond a point of no return. There is a downside here no one is even discussing. I'm an American living in Scandinavia and this shit feels very real.

thatkid1010101

IE saying (Kramer also kinda did too) way less spending in economy = further potential slowdown

PaperHandsTheDip

Market is pricing silver equalizing \~$50/oz right now in the miners. IE: It's either expecting silver to crash hard OR miners are underpriced. Which one is it here?

BBTB2

I would like to see a breakout clearly disclosing % of expenditures/ overhead spent on maintenance & non-services / non-personnel operational improvements as well as a breakout of how much revenue was lost due to unplanned production / operation shutdown. It’s pretty easy to predict where a company will be in 3-5 years if they have a history of good / bad investment in their production facilities / operations. IE a company nickel & diming maintenance will most certainly see a downward trend in production effeciency and/or loss in revenue due to unplanned shutdowns because their shit broke.

crystalscars

theres one here [HANetf Future of Defence UCITS ETF | A3EB9T | IE000OJ5TQP4](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000OJ5TQP4)

PooPooPointBoiz

lmao, every time META has jumped in price the last 5 years has been when Zuck announced efficiency and less spending. IE layoffs.

Team_Ironman

I work in data center industry. Building AI for a group I will not name. The big issue is it costs a substantial amount of money to build AI. The capital costs I’m seeing first hand are INSANE. These guys want everything in 6months/short timelines (ridiculous/almost impossible timelines). Everyone’s bidding promising to hit it. Not hitting it. And then so much money is being thrown into the ether from so many inefficiencies because what’s being asked for isn’t reasonable. That means millions of dollars gone to re-fixing work. Re-designing. Un-optimized schedules and task sequencings. Inefficient cheap solutions to provide equipment in a timely manner. Versus waiting 48-32 weeks for decent efficient equipment. I’d like to say there is a lot of unrealized potential for AI. But I’m starting to lean on the argument that it is a bubble. Because the costs seem to be growing almost exponentially with the money made (from what I hear) being almost linear in growth. Also starting to hit bottlenecks in power that can be reasonably provided by the grid. AND cooling limitations. I just can’t imagine anyone reaching cash positive for 30-50 years. I could be wrong as I haven’t looked to much into cash coming in. But I believe a large part of the incoming cash is just the funds from another company to build (IE: open AI giving company XYZ 100billion to provide F amount of compute by XXXX date). Basically one company pushing point of bankruptcy. And the 7 others profiting off of it

CoughRock

leverage on re is kind of funky though. The leverage ratio is the highest at the start, but each additional payment you leverage ratio decrease. Since you are paying down more. Then there is how much debt to income ratio bank is willing to lend you. You cant exactly max it out. The "theoretical" leverage in RE looks high, but "realistic" bank allow you to use is lot less. Comparable to equity leverage imho. Depend on the equity asset you bought, the margin maintenance ratio can be more or less. IE: safer asset like t bill can have margin maintenance of 2%. So you could max it out on 50x leverage and play fed interest rate event. Extremely dangerous if thing goes against you but reward if thing align your way. So there is asset dependency on how much leverage you can get even within the equity market. Hard to compare 1 to 1. forex leverage is whole other world all together, 100x to 500x, some off shore unregulated brokerage offer 1000x leverage. But very shady and unreachable if thing goes wrong.

TechNightmares

I have holdings in COPP, IE, TGB, IVPAF, GCUMF. GCUMF is probably the most asymmetrical play I have seen since silver was $14. Copper is cyclical and I'm unlikely to live long enough to see the end of this cycle. The US and much of the developed and indebted world are about to embark on the greatest forced growth plan ever attempted. I could go into the reasons why but I don't have time. This will crank hard commodities up to 11 and eventually spark conflict. You can see the beginnings now. Pretty much any metal is a good bet, gold and silver are well under way, copper is just starting.

PaperHandsTheDip

if you get assigned, sell CC's on them. IE: Wheel them

nomemory

https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE0002Y8CX98

Decibel0753

However, European UCITS ETFs are not domiciled in Germany, but in Ireland ("IE" in ISIN)... In this respect, the Czech Republic is a great option, where you can sell shares/ETFs up to CZK 100,000 (approx. EUR 4,100) per year, or after three years from purchase in virtually unlimited amounts without having to pay capital gains tax.

Sleepiboisleep

Bro..: offshore accounts, accelerated depreciation are the two most common loopholes. I’m starting to think you’ve never filed your own taxes but that’s a privilege that you can indulge in since you have the income to do so. Pre tax deductibles lower your overall income prior to filing in your bracket so already they are paying less than their fair share by hiding in a lower bracket (IE paying less in taxes) deductibles do NOT disappear as you rise in brackets I have no clue where you got that information. There are plenty of others that pay less than the smallest brackets while sitting in the 500k plus zone.

Most-Ear-3678

Hey, we’re here to learn and support each other. I was skeptical about it, and I thought if you sell multiple contracts at once, it usually says the number next to the option. IE (x5 or x10) so I had to ask

eyehole_men

It’s beyond its golden age of the 2000s-2010s. It’s in its decline. It’s not gonna go tits up but I think you should wait and see what their top level moves are IE new ceo etc.

CoughRock

looking at the past ruling, even if scouts rule against it, they usually sneak a procedure clause that is only half measure judgement. IE: birthright citizen only apply to people in the lawsuit instead of nationwide. So in this case, if scouts decide to award tariff refund only for those in the lawsuit instead of nation wide junction. How would polymarket decide the winner ? since technically for those outside of the lawsuit, tariff is still on but those in the lawsuit tariff is off. Or is it any tariff overturn is count as complete over turn ?

eyehole_men

Odds are I think the market will rally. By how much I don’t know but it will be like nitros in an engine. It might get tempered out though depending on how Trump responds IE if he figures out some other bullshit way to impose tarrifs.

Zealousideal_Bet924

1.How do you manage tail risk? IE low frequency downside events. In those events your leaps would get stomped and you probabky cannot sell cc above cost basis either thus not funding recovery leaps. 2. Do you segregate the industries/places that you wheel from your leaps positions? 3. Do you use your leaps gains to fund your wheeling thus completing the circle? Seems like an interesting approach.

bungholio99

That’s why JP Morgan and Global X has those IE, EU or LSE listings. You get nice 8-12% yields and mostly completely tax free, but sometimes there is a 1-2% Spread because of low volume. You could also look into those swiss stocks that have 0 witholding tax in general, this should also improve your situation and it’s often a 4-5% yield you get. Holcim, EFG, U-Blox, Avolta or Clariant.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's why I was looking at CSPs - if it does anything other than faceplant hard you'll make money. Selling 29p's you collect a \~1.75 premium right now. IE: Has to be below 27.25 to actually lose money. Anything over that and you print.

PaperHandsTheDip

I stopped buying calls unless they're leaps / 6+ month expiration. IV crush hits too hard. Instead I swapped to shares + CC's & CSP's. They work better for me. IE: I sold some ITM CSPs on PENG (22.5) for \~$2.4 each. PENG would have to fall below $20.1 for me to lose money (\~5% downside protection). With PENG sitting \~$23 right now, I pocket $2.4 (ish) if they expire worthless -- whereas with shares I'd only have made \~$1.5 / share. I'm dumping entire position tomorrow irregardless -- but I made more money with shares + CC's & CSPs than I would have with just shares AND I also got some downside protection.

Moddingspreee

Do not buy VOO if you live in the EU, it will be a nightmare tax-wise. Buy only “UCITS” etfs. UCITS etfs similar to voo are these ones: https://www.justetf.com/en/how-to/sp-500-etfs.html I personally have the SDPR accumulating S&P 500: https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000XZSV718 Lastly, my recommendation would be to buy an all-world etf, this way you have a bit of diversification and aren’t going all in on the US. I have this one: Invesco FTSE All-World UCITS ETF Acc – https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000716YHJ7 Good luck! If you want to find more ETFs, JustETF is a pretty good source for European investors.

pocketsquare22

What size spreads and what are you getting for them? IE are you selling a 10 point spread for $1? Or a $20 point spread for 0.50? It sounds nice but often it’s Pennie’s in front of a steamroller. You win a few, then suddenly lose big on one

leogrimm98

This is the ISIN of one of the best assets you can trade right now: “IE000NXF88S1” (VanEck Oil Services). I’m agree that Other companies, such as Conoco and Exxon, will take years to return to the Venezuelan oil fields. I also think MercadoLibre is another great opportunity. I used to live in South America (two years in Colombia), and people used it for everything—especially in the real estate sector. I believe that a significant amount of investment will flow into the LATAM market after the collapse of Venezuela, and possibly Cuba as well. That would mean higher cash volumes for platforms like MercadoLibre.

Wows_Nightly_News

What's crazy is that they are charging him with a national firearms act violation. IE for breaking US gun law.

quickexhuast

The USA embargoed them in the 70s so of course there was no investment, and Russia has their own reserves to develop. This is much bigger than profits, this is to prepare for a future as globalism dies off. The US requires astronomical amount of diesel to operate its military and economy, they dont want to be beholden to other countries they cant invade as easy IE Canada and Mexico. Its much easier to send troops to protect assests in SA, but if you invade canada or mexcio, youll get a bit more than a X post condemning the action.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Just sayin no one wins with options, but it is certainly fun to try! Some people do win. IE: Look at SPXL or TQQQ. They use options to obtain leverage - and have DRASTICALLY outperformed a simple "buy and hold shares" strategy.

AluminiumCaffeine

Meh, MSFT is playing this conservative somehwat, IE they handed the OAI contracts to Oracle, Satya is not super agi pilled or at least hes not ASI believing I guess from the interviews with him I have watched

ComplexEntertainer13

> 1) A product is drastically superior Firefox performance issues launching Chrome into the stratosphere in just a few years for example. I never realized how bad the issue was myself early on. Because I was a super early SSD adopter. But for a few crucial years there around 2008-2012 Firefox was near unusable on a sub par PC with a HDD. And rather than Firefox continuing it's slow climb in market share from eroding IE/Edge market share. Chrome went from nothing to dominant in just 2-3 years.