IE

Ok_Top9254

Media companies spend billions yearly on software to edit and curate their content with. Engineering companies also spend billions on CAD software and equipment. But what about software companies? You can code and copypaste shit from stack overflow on a 300 year old thinkpad with IE5. Software was easily the biggest market sector with billions of dollars of R&D flowing and all of it untapped. Everything is open source, nobody gives a shit about a fancy ui wrapper for a compiler. But that all changes with LLMs. Everyone and their mother is shitting gold bricks just to pay for a Claude subscription and more credits. Employers would willingly get fucked in the ass with broken APIs just to get their hands on the newest shiny model, just so they can have an edge over three guys in a shed finding vulnerabilities in their app with Fable.

Money-Effective7189

There are some out there that just want your money. First I would make sure they are with a reputable company check to see thier total AUM and are they a fiduciary. Ask friends/collegues, parents who they use. You can find companies that take thier fee on a sliding scale based on the portfolio zize Amount Under Management "AUM". Generally the minimum amount is 200-300k and the fee is roughly 1%. If you come in with more money the fee may drop, IE 1,000,000.00 the fee could be .08%, 2.5 million could be .06% and 5 million+ could be .05%. Speak to the advisor, after they have your financial history, identify the value of your investments, ask them what thier financial plan is? Short term, mid term and long term. What they plan to buy, only ETF's, only stocks, a mix, private securities, bonds, Treasuries? How they will structure it, the funds they will use, allocation break down. Ask lots of queations, be inquisitive, and ask how many times per year will you meet to address poetfolio concerns, market changes, market loss etc. Your 401k and 457b should offer advisors and a very discounted price to a traditional financial advisor. If your starting out a fund under 100k-250k this is the way to go, possibly using thier robo advisor. Between 250k and 500k use your funds advisor they may charge 2-3%, but at 1 million dollars + consider a fiduciary. I had a number of accounts, a 401k, 403a, 457b, taxable brokerage account, traditional IRA and ROTH IRA. I personally managed mine through the bulk of my working life, but a few years before retiring got a fidu iary. He is very knowledgable and proactive in managing my various accounts. My portfolio breakdown is below. Domestic equity. 52.20% International. 26.40% Fixed income. 17.49% Emerging markets. 3.82% Real assets. 3.05% Cash. .46% Alternative investments .33% I still evaluate fees paid to the financial company versus the growth in the account during that quarter. We meet quartely and start the year with a general plan and each quarter tweek the plan as needed based upon world and US events, the market, inflation, taxes etc. You have to figure out thier worth and if you think you can do better in the market. If your account made 10-15% what would you be willing to pay. 500k portfolio, making 12% =60,000. Would you pay .08% or 4,000? Hopefully this gives you a little insight to evaluate the value of a good financial professional and how they can grow your wealth.

pegasusCK

I'm 90% sure it trends up Monday and Tuesday, maybe not moon but still up and then dumps hard. IE your scenario#2

PaperHandsTheDip

Tools have only been usable since \~feb this year, and only strong from the last few months (fable & sol). Given that it takes a few weeks to figure out a strong flow - there has literally only been a \~2 month window for the average person to have been able to use & understand the tooling in the current environment. I don't believe that's "the vast majority of the world disagrees". I think it's the tooling is still fairly new, and the cutting edge ones are all aimed at experienced developers. You need to have a deep understanding of software to understand how to leverage them properly... It's incredibly difficult to get multiple agents to work together properly. You even said it yourself. They produce slop, and a lot of it unless directed properly. I even experience it. As you scale up the number of agents you use, you have to be incredibly careful when modelling the error surface. That's the hardest part of the problem these days imo & is where I spend most of my time. Basically - how do you prove something worked? TDD with 100% test coverage, everywhere is the first step. I am using them to develop low latency HFT trading systems - basically latency arb. They're often considered one of the most difficult areas of software & finance. If it was easy to do - anyone would do it and print money. They're literally money printers. IE: This one is decayed, built by hand (\~8-9 months iirc): [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) I still build them. My most recent live one was done in \~8-9 weeks, and my next iteration is on track to be done in less than 6. It's all enabled via AI's... I'm getting better at using them and velocity is increasing. So I do see first hand how it's useful. Don't have to believe it if you don't want to. I'm seeing that type of stuff everywhere in my circles fwiw

PaperHandsTheDip

That's one way to use it, a better way to use it is give it to someone who has knowledge of a system / topic and they can leverage it. IE: Previously when designing a feature I'd consider things like use datastructure X, Y or Z in unionson with algorithm A, B, or C. I'd weight things, go back and forth before deciding what approach to take - then spend all day implementing the feature. That was pre ai. Now tho - I have the same knowledge - I just ping AI and tell it the objective, feed in the relative datastructure we are considering (X, Y, Z) and the approaches to solve it (A, B, C). I'll ask it to weight them / pros / cons of each. Then after deciding on what to use, tell it to implement it. Time to implement the same feature dropped from all day to < 1 hour for someone with experience / background knowledge. Someone without it - produces slop. That's how it's enabling people who are experienced to excel & what I'm seeing everywhere. Yah there's a lot of people using it for slop, but it's gotten incredibly good over the last few months, even hold outs are starting to move over.

pegasusCK

Bro yes you do. Hewlett Packard Enterprise. HP Enterprise. IE HPE Like the laptops but they've mostly pivoted to AI infrastructure.

PaperHandsTheDip

Smart man. I quit for 6 months a few years back and started hitting the gym. Got in the best shape of my life, ran my first marathon. Actually had strangers give me attention, shit was weird. Then... I injured myself due to overactivity and went back to drinking. Now hovering \~210lbs and hella out of shape. Maybe I should quit again & start going to the gym again O.o. Hella overweight and doing far too much alcohol and drugs. IE: I'm going to a music festival next week with a group of friends and probably gonna drop some acid.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> You expect past performance to be indicative of futur performance But... I don't lol. I'm looking at the growth rate, which is forward looking. It's actually the opposite, you're looking backwards. I pointed out that it's growing at insane rates, gave a reason why I think it's doing so (IE: anecdotal evidence), suggested that it still has a large room to grow, and that the investments actually make sense at these levels (ie: anthropic is reaching profitability). Re: the selling shovels (nvda) - Anthropic isn't the one buying GPU's by the millions. It's the hyperscalers (ie: MSFT & AMZN). Of which... both reported reaching profitability on their DC capex. Anthropic doesn't even buy GPU's... it rents them from the hyperscalers and sells a service. They also reached profitability. That means the shovel sellers are profitable, the shovel buyers are profitable, and the people using the shovels are... also profitable. The entire thing is looking profitable to me with massive room to grow. Yes - the trade was funded via trillions of dollars worth of debt (ie: hyperscalers) - but its looking sustainable based on everyones recent ER's. It's worth significantly more than $500b lol, there is already well over $100b being spent on consuming AI services.

PaperHandsTheDip

The problem with the AI trade is it's mostly been speculative. AI has only been useful since \~feb this year, and it takes a few weeks to figure out how to effectively leverage it. In that sense - it's only really had a "viable" product for a couple months still. I've been following it since \~2023-2024 toying with the models, but never committed due to things like hallucinations. Once 4.8 came out tho - I started heavily integrating it into my workflow. Sol & Fable were another major step up - it's actually good now. I'm still learning new ways to use it. At the start I was doing all the design work / engineering by hand and getting agents to implement them for me. I'd review the implementation plans, the approach, etc. Sometimes finding mistakes but overall very high quality. The first major breakthru for me was using them for adversarial analysis / review. IE: I'd use an agent to audit the work of another. Similar to people - AI's make mistakes but I noticed they were making fewer errors than people on average. After review tho, they were solid. So... why not try to get an agent to review another agents work? It worked surprisingly well. Like so well - that I more or less stopped reviewing the code myself. I got things setup so that when I request a feature / something - it automatically goes thru the standard review / security flow / pipeline - but every step is managed by agents. Everything was still my design tho, they were just implementing it. The next major breakthru for me - I started using them for designing the systems as well. If I could get them to implement my designs (and they were already doing a better job than most software engineers) - why not use that same ability to design systems as well? So - I started to point them towards designing systems too, using a very similar flow. It worked... incredibly well. Using a similar flow - create design, review it, audit it, run it through all the tests, etc, I managed to get very strong designs coming out of these systems. Unioned design + implementation and I was able to output strong fault tolerant, tested & reviewed systems... all autonomously. The problem is it was slow. My most recent breakthru has been in figuring out how to leverage the agents to get them to parallelize the workflow. The flow I described above is mostly serial. However, it turns out, agents are really good at optimizing whatever function you throw at them. I gave the highest level agent the additional task of "maximize velocity by splitting workloads into tasks that can be implemented independently". Basically constructing a dependency graph. Tasks now frequently have 4-10+ agents working on them in parallel, reviewing each others work, designing systems, auditing things, etc. It's reduced the time to deliver working systems / complete projects from 6-12 months to only a couple weeks. Over 90% of software engineers now report using AI tooling, I'm not the only one. It's starting to make its way into other fields as others realize just how good it's gotten. Anthropic is increasing its ARR by over $500 million A DAY. That's insane - it's the fastest growing company in history. The reason is that it's good now - but it's only really been "good" for a few months.

hseeman_sf

The pattern in each of those wasn't really timing, it was a distribution wedge. Google didn't beat Yahoo by being patient, it beat Yahoo because search got cheaper and better while Yahoo optimized for portal traffic. Chrome didn't beat IE by waiting either, Google already owned the search audience and used that as leverage to push a better browser for free. The AI incumbents right now already sit closer to the Chrome position than the Netscape one: Google can push Gemini into every Android phone and search results page, Microsoft can push Copilot through every Windows and Office install. The one actually at risk of getting Yahoo'd is whichever leader is relying on model quality alone without owning a distribution surface to force adoption.

Boglehead0

You hold just go for Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF - (USD) Accumulating (IE000VAHT5T0) $VALL /VALU / VGLA (Ongoing Charges Figure† 0.07%)

CantaloupeSea48

We live in the safest era for food consumption. Once a while a slip up occurs. Most of the bad comes from areas with poor controls over animal/human waste: IE mexico and Central/South America. Be glad you live here

PaperHandsTheDip

Lol, that's not how flow works. Flow is aggressive and moves markets. Passive players (ie: market makers) are on the other side of the trade, and when they get a fill - they back off. IE: I'm willing to buy for $100 and sell for $102. I want to profit the spread, and don't want to get runover. So if you sell, I buy for $99. I got 1 inventory, so I lower my next buy. My bid/ask spread drops to $99/101 from $100/102. Price dropped because of aggressive flow.

peterhugs

which websites do you use to look at charts in real time (IE Futures?)

PaperHandsTheDip

I use AI to build low latency arbitrage systems, which make money. I use it to identify inefficiencies / find alphas (just various arbs). So in a way, yes, the models do make me money, they have automated an incredibly large part of my work. Same models everyone else has access to tho, just leveraging them correctly takes a bit of learning. IE: IMO The absolute best thing you can do is learn how to use subagents & get them to do adversarial analysis. Create an agent that manages a set of other agents and ask them to adversarially work together on the problem. Basically one creates a solution and the other reviews it / picks it apart. They're both incredibly good at their respective tasks, but it mostly removes your need to do the "pick it apart" part.

PaperHandsTheDip

thats the game. In and out quick based off nothing other than vibes. Vibes being - are others maybe gonna be in the near future? Just identify random shit that could cause that to happen. For soxl - it was citadel buying SA. If citadel came it and swiped 100% of a mutli billion dollar funds port, it might go up! People see that and buy. Thems vbes, buy, hope other buy and if they do fuck off. Nothing else matters. If they don't buy, cut losses and fuck off. IE: Take a loss.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm sorry you're having trouble with it. It's not the agents - you don't need to constantly probe it. Like, you can... but that's not a great way to use them imo. Easiest way to resolve "conflicting information" you're experiencing is to get a set of agents to perform an adversarial analysis on the research that is produced. It'll resolve the conflicts and get you the answer you probably want. Or at least a much more "correct" answer. I also heavily use claude and codex, I'm on the max 20 plans and max them out. If they had max 50, I'd use it... I am burning thru my entire allocations in \~24-48hrs. Once you figure out how to use them effectively it's insane at how productive they become and how good they are. Think of it like this: "but I still gotta go and figure out what to use". <- Why? What did they do wrong? Can the solution be fixed / addressed / automated? The answer is almost always "yes". IE: A better approach may be to feed the objective into a different agent and get it to perform an adversarial analysis on the output of the first agent. Then the output that you see becomes what you've asked an agent to do / with another one trying to review / validate everything. Think of what you do... just ask another agent to do that. Make it persistent / permanent by getting it to document the process. Now everytime you ask for a change, it goes thru that flow (ie: its reviewed before you see anything!). I often use sets of 4-5 agents for this, in sequence and parallel where applicable. I have mine setup to do this autonomically now. They review each other, validate the information, cross reference it, do reviews, etc. The quality and correctness of output went up 100 fold, and the types of issues you are experiencing have more or less disappeared in my current projects.

itchygentleman

IE: You cant have Chinese EV's. You can only have shitty tesla's.

PaperHandsTheDip

Yields going up means we're gonna see inflation. Sure it's "guaranteed returns" - but the real outcome is "guaranteed returns on cash, which ends up loses value faster than the bonds return". IE: You fall behind, not get ahead.

PaperHandsTheDip

Fair enough. Intrinsic value - yes. Renting does the same thing. Over the long term housing will lose out vs equities, always does. IE: Over 100 years, $100 invested is worth over $2m today. Housing... did not do that.

TheDeHymenizer

1. its $4 not $1 2. you misunderstand what hes asking. Why would they need to "dilute to stay afloat" IE no go bankrupt per OP's warning when they have no debt and are making profits.

PaperHandsTheDip

Higher rates means we are likely to see inflation - meaning people don't bonds since cash is losing value. Bonds go down in response to this. Higher yields means lower ETF price - yields and bond price (ie: TLT) are inversely correlated. Nobody wants to hold bonds if we see inflation. IE: If bonds return 5% but we see 8% inflation you're actually just losing 3% in real value per annum.

Sufficient-Pause9765

3-10% is a big range. Its pretty straightforward to get 79sh a year on average, but over 10 years some will be much more (last few years) and others may be negative. A blended average of 7% is totally normal. Lombard loans, these are a bit complex. A lombard is the Swiss equivalent of a securities backed loan. IE its a loan secured by the assets in the swiss brokerage. Because the swiss bank keeps interest rates near 0, one can get very low rates for them. I have a lombard at 1.3%. So, you can borrow in switzerland at 1.3% and put the money into us assets like treasuries or fixed income that pay more like 4%-5%. If its a tax free muni, you are make a nice spread of 3%-4%. Its called a carry trade. HOWEVER, they come with real risk. That swiss lombard loan is demoninated in swiss francs. You owe them swiss francs each month. However your money is in the US in USD. So you now have fx risk. If the USD depreciates heavily against CHF, the real cost of that lombard loan goes up, because you are making money in USD and then buying francs to pay the loan. Additionally, if the assets that secure the Lombard go down in value, you could be margin called and forced to liquidate. So yes, you can do a carry trade and arbitrage rates, but you then have both margin and FX risk.

PaperHandsTheDip

It was a super popular video when I was in school like 2 decades ago, she got popular because it was basically a bunch of hot korean girls just bouncing around. Was novel at the time, not relevant anymore, but I always remembered it lol. Lil bubble is hilarious - he makes parodies of crypto market. I actually use inverse him as a sentiment signal. When he drops videos you inverse them, it's got over a 60% correctness rate. Vibes all day lol. IE: This one is funny too: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K\_0\_SiY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY) . Go long... that was when BTC dropped from \~17k to \~4k. It kept climbing towards 10k and dumped everytime. He dropped that video and it fucking pumped to \~50k+

Gulliveig

My thoughts exactly, increasing the grid capacity might be painfully slow. I mean, production-wise renewabels are the quickest to build, and they had a pretty streak recently, in spite of actively being fighted by the administration. A year ago I got me some RENW (IE00BK5BCH80) @ $10 (rebalanced some @ $18). But the grid. Just recently got me some GRID ETF, but this bet might be a pretty slow one.

Raiddinn1

Your claims don't make logical sense. Sounds like you are on some hopium. According to you, any arbitrage opportunity exists, it would go away immediately. If selling options is free money, then we can expect people to pile in until it's not free money anymore. This has nothing to do with the EV of buying and holding shares. Institutions can borrow at the risk free rate and collect would collect all free money higher than the risk free rate. Either the market is efficient or it isn't. Furthermore, getting 100% premium on shorts doesn't mean free money. The expected gains are equal to the expected loss. If not, there is an arbitrage opportunity that's already been exploited by people moving faster than you. This is all before market makers take a slice out of the pie, IE all options have slightly negative EVs.

PaperHandsTheDip

LOL - surprisingly accurate. But league and shitposting. I design low latency HFT systems, have been doing it on and off for \~9 years. I have my own company and I partner with various firms to get access to the markets / access to the funding I need to operate them. IE: this is a decayed low latency HFT system I built. [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) \~90% of software engineers now report using AI, I personally don't know a single person who doesn't use it. Productivity gains being seen in my circles are \~4-5x increases in velocity to deliver projects. In the space I operate in, it's helped insanely with identifying alphas too. In non-software jobs, my peers who are using it are reporting \~200% increase in velocity. It makes some mistakes, but it makes fewer than I was making by hand.

PaperHandsTheDip

They are incredibly good at agentic tasks, how are you using them? The issue most people encounter is the models lack the proper context and make assumptions about the problem. You get insane context decay / they spin & get stuck on trivial things. You need to steer them a little bit and make them document everything / make it permanent. Not a "memory", but rather directly documented. Then any other agent that gets spun up now has that context too. You also need to use multiple agents adversarially against each other. IE: Spin up multiple subagents and let one model / solve the problem and let the other adversarially poke holes in it. You give them two different conflicting objective functions. The emergent behavior of that system is a strong output assuming both agents are strong. Think of how agents have gotten incredibly good at finding security exploits... they're already better than humans at it. So use that ability in your flow. I frequently deal with 15-20 subagents per task as they work very well when used like this. In isolation, yah, they kinda suck. But so too does a brand new guy coming in with no context at all about the project we've been working on. You need to feed them in the context (have everything documented) then also review their design (adversarially model it), code review it, etc.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm already using them to make money, as are many of my friends. The difference is you make it self directing rather than telling it explicitly how to do it. IE: Let it figure that part out for itself. If it sucks at it, it'll get culled off. Kinda like unsupervised ML, but another layer of abstraction ontop of it.

PaperHandsTheDip

Lol. Very hand waved buy I built computer programs that look for pricing inefficiencies in the same (or highly correlated) assets in the crypto market and deployed them on computers in the same datacenter as exchanges. If the pricing differences ever got large enough (more than fees), it was possible to buy in one place, sell in the other and immediately make a profit. Think BTC - it trades on binance & also trades on OKX. Turns out it's very possible to do, and accounts for a very large part of global trade volume. It's just called arbitrage, risk free profits. I stopped doing it in crypto markets many years ago, but still managed to extract north of $10m from it in a few years. Arbitrage: [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) \- IE: Open these two tabs - prices will be different. [https://www.okx.com/trade-swap/btc-usdt-swap](https://www.okx.com/trade-swap/btc-usdt-swap) [https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BTCUSDT](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BTCUSDT) \- Started using reddit as during my time building HF systems I realized flow is the only thing that actually moves a market (it's also what causes arbitrages to appear). Literally nothing else matters. WSBs is one of the worlds largest retail investing forum and I'm a gambler at heart (poker player) - so I figured why not try it on markets? Works alright all things considered.

PaperHandsTheDip

Money printing causes inflation & currency to faceplant in value. IE: If you doubled the amount of currency in existence without changing the output of any country, we would roughly expect everything to double in price... including the price of equities. It's not "past performance does not guarantee future results" it's literally - they can and will print money. They introduced laws that allow them to, and called it Quantative Easing. Look at what QE does. It first introduced in 2008 and we've only had two crisis's since - 2008 & covid... it wasn't a thing before. We have a plethora of evidence of what happens when governments print money tho (see germany post WW2 as an example). It reduces down to the above - everything goes up in value relative to that currency. Interesting thing about our markets are they are priced in... that exact currency. US markets are priced in USD. If USD faceplants in value due to inflation / being printed, you'd expect markets to go up relative to how much USD goes down - assuming economic output remains constant. Since QE was introduced the fed has made it very clear it will be utilized during any crisis. In that sense - yah - our economic output may actually go down. But the value (quoted in USD) is going to go up, since markets go up to compensate for the faceplanting value of USD. \> When money printing fail to solve the problem, it would fail spectacular. Yah, it doesn't work very well. But when markets are quoted in USD, your retirement is quoted in USD - why in the world would you EVER want to hold USD when they print it like no other? They've already shown they don't care about the dollar, making sure number go up is more important. You're betting against that saying market is going to crash...

PaperHandsTheDip

It's a game of poker. The winning move is trying to get you to do the same move as me, after me. IE: **Winning hand (1): I buy, you buy, I sell.** <- you're my exit liquidity. You pumped the price so I could exit and fuck off. **Winning hand (2): I sell, you sell, I buy.** <- I sold and was able to buy at a cheaper entrance due to your sell. You get left behind as price runs away from you. **Losing hand (1): I buy, you sell, I sell.** <- I was your exit liquidity, I pumped the price for you and am holding at a loss. If I sell now, I lose money. **Losing hand (2): I sell, you buy, I buy.** <- I sold, price pumped. If I rebuy now, price is higher than what I sold for.

PaperHandsTheDip

Not as hard as you think. I view leaps as access to an insanely high leverage with the benefit that it can't go to $0. I often use them to get an effective 3-5x leverage without liquidation risk (IE: I did it with TTD earlier). I use vibes to define direction - I don't trade them with conviction. If vibes change it means the bet was wrong and cut losses. If it was shares - I'd have done the exact same thing. The risk vs reward curve of them is super appealing for vibe trading tho, as the alphas tend to decay quickly. If you're right you get very nice / quick gains, if you're wrong the losses tend to be fairly buffered due to how options are priced. On NKE there - those leaps were effectively \~5:1 leverage. I'd likely have literally been liquidated if I used that amount of raw leverage vs leaps in an isolated position.

PaperHandsTheDip

Learn to cut losses lol. I do it all the time. Imagine if I bagheld my NKE leaps... I'd be down 750k instead of 180k. Entire trading thesis should be driven by vibes - where vibes are defined by what OTHER PEOPLE are saying, not you. If vibes turn sour, fuck off, even if you're underwater. IE: NKE YOLO (ended up with 777 contracts): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pnjq4d/nke\_took\_profit\_67\_csps\_rolled\_profits\_into\_leaps/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pnjq4d/nke_took_profit_67_csps_rolled_profits_into_leaps/) NKE UPDATE (had a 60% drawdown in less than a week): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pzvl2a/nke\_current\_position\_still\_holding\_just\_an\_update/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pzvl2a/nke_current_position_still_holding_just_an_update/) NKE LOSS (managed to cut for \~20% loss): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1q5q1a6/nke\_realized\_the\_loss/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1q5q1a6/nke_realized_the_loss/)

PaperHandsTheDip

I made \~180k going long the previous week. It had every sign it was going to fall over. Too many bots & I've played these memes before. IE: Gains from calls. Net pnl was about +200k in \~10days on HTZ between calls, shares & puts. Hit more or less everyone. https://preview.redd.it/s8lbhvfrgljh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a59581ed70fd63b426974fa15901f0f6772ec9c5

dinnerthief

Seeing how much AI has been adopted in my workplace alone i dont see the demand dropping soon. Now there might be other disruptions like economic instability caused by jobs disappearing that might cause the demand to drop, IE why do companies need AI if no one can buy what they produce anyways.

Sufficient-Pause9765

$800k would support $32k/yr in withdrawals. Average social security payment is $24k/year, those getting more now put more in now, and same would be possible with these accounts. IE if you work you can add more each year tax free. So the average payout of this would be more then the current average, while still allowing those who earn more to put/get more in/out.

darkspherei

wsb is a psyop overrun by bots (IE $HTZ)

Monster_Dumps_2026

Occupy wallstreet is the reason why we have SOOOO many stupid social issues being pushed by the media to keep us divided. They freaked out when we did occupy wallstreet. Both sides were united. And how did they break it up? Instead of being focused on just the single cause. They started shoe horning other causes that caused divisiveness. IE abortion, LGBTQ+, Racism etc. We'll NEVER have another occupy movement. Want to know why? Just go on reddit and see how these people speak about republican voters. People are okay completely dissengaging with family members with different viewpoints. Hell look at threads, bluesky and rumble. They have successfully gotten us to isolate ourselves and demonize our peers. So we'll never come back together to go after the 1% ruling class. Its over. Forever. The plan was executed successfully

PaperHandsTheDip

As per my comment - equities get bailed out these days. It'll happen again in another major crash / correction, which is a different market function than existed pre 2008. The gov would literally rather cause inflation than see peoples retirements go down and they have shown thats exactly what they do when a crisis hits. They did it in 2008, they did it during covid, they'll do it if the "AI bubble" bursts. Bondholders are gonna be left holding the bag if things go south, not equities. Gov has made that very clear. As for the 4% withdrawal rate & bond ratio - those are very old rules. Adjust your strategies to the current market paradigm. High yield dividends tend to pay a 4%+ rate and grow over time, even during the down cycles. They often jump to 5-6% during down cycles... you don't have to sell anything and it'll continue to go up. Look at canadian banks for example - they are a heavy portion of my portfolio and follow that exact pattern. RBC has only dropped their dividend once (in the 90s) and it went up next quarter, and every other major bank has never cut it... once. In the same time the equities have more or less followed the market (they've actually quite outperformed it). IE: [https://www.reddit.com/r/dividendscanada/comments/zxj843/historic\_dividend\_payments\_by\_canadian\_banks\_an/](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividendscanada/comments/zxj843/historic_dividend_payments_by_canadian_banks_an/) 4% rule is significantly more effective "invest it all in dividend stocks and live off the 4%+ div they pay" in low risk dividend stocks. I'd argue they are actually \*safer\* than bonds as the value of cash is imaginary and easily manipulated, whereas real assets have some value that can be mapped to.

PaperHandsTheDip

Happens. Generally when the numbers get larger people take less risk tho - as it's not nearly as easy to recover losses. IE: With a few thousand being risked - even if you went completely tits up, with a few months of work you'd have recovered 100%. With $500k+, that's an entire lifetime of working + saving. If lost you'll never be able to recover that, so people take less risk.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> So my question is, if you are able to survive a few years without depleting your retirement savings, isn't it better to stay with a majority equities?  Yes. Lotta people can't stomach the drawdowns tho. I'm personally 100% equities and won't consider bonds for reasons similar to what you mentioned. They drastically underperform. If you can weather a few years of drawdowns without panic you'll be further ahead in 100% equities. With $2m, you can "safely" withdraw \~80-100k / annum without worries, with 100% equity portfolio. On average over the long term market grows \~10.5% / annum, giving a 100% equities portfolio an expected return of almost $200k / annum. It nets \~7% after inflation. Yah you might have a few years of drawdowns, but you'd be super far ahead assuming the risk. IE: Over the last 5 years you'd be up 78%, or $1.56m on the $2m portfolio. Withdrawing $100k / annum would leave you with over $3m still. The point of bonds in a portfolio / that advice is for people who cannot assume those risks. $2m is sufficiently large enough you can assume them.

Shajirr

Is SPCX classified as an IT company? Basically I want to avoid this crap, so would like to know if it would be included in ETFs like [QDVE](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3WJKG14)

Perfect_Ganache_1959

For the love of god, no austerity. Go nationalise the private prisons and a bunch of the private health insurance industry; and you'll get the same service you do now (not super great) at 100-1000x less cost. They'll squeal like stuck pigs about it and try to smash you in the media. Send in investigators and prosecute over and over all of the atrocities (deaths in ice detention, denying coverage to cancer patients); few will listen to the smear campaigns. Use international tax treaties and five eyes intelligence cooperation to investigate every dodgy part of the Murdoch empire; and have your partner countries start seizing assets. IE https://michaelwest.com.au/newscorps-foxtel-welfare-tax/ Intrusively investigate social media companies that take ad revenue from foreign influence groups. Pretty soon you have muzzled the far right propaganda engine, saved cut expenses, reduced fraud or unethical billing. You might think this can't work, but we've got a private army rolling round harrassing people over the color of their skin massively funded by Congress; with barely a peep of protest from all of the supposed checks and balances.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm more interested in the growth potential moving forward - robotics, ie. Use AI for robotics control systems, and now you have fully autonomous robots. Amazon is working on this for their warehouses, ie. It's not just automating ideas / spreadsheets / etc. The interesting thing to look at is how it's effected software. Over 90% of software engineers now report using AI tooling and it's been the sector that's been impacted the largest, by quite a significant margin. Yet there are still only \~50m paying customers for ChatGPT. As AI makes its way into more and more sectors we are going to see insane changes to how work is performed. I can't predict how - but it's already starting to occur. Keep in mind performance of these models is **still** doubling every \~6-8 months, and costs to run them keep coming down. IE: Qwen 3.8 is stronger than the frontier models of \~2-2.5 years ago and I can run it on my laptop. Those gains are not going to slow down, they're showing signs of accelerating if anything. That's what has me fascinated with it - future outlook / real world impacts. The transition from strictly digital to real world via robotics is already in motion - and it's going to have the same impact AI has on software, in other industries.

MarthaJulietta

Not at all. You said what needs to be judged is if the earnings report will be better than what the market thinks. I am talking about bigger picture IE Uber is dead to AVs, or Adobe is dead to AI replacements or PYPL is losing to Stripe/Block. These narratives have very little to do with whether there is a beat or a miss on EPS this quarter.

Raveen396

>Fair points, but generally if your 401k has terrible fund choices, keeping it in the 401k keeps you locked into those limited choices. Rolling into the IRA gives you control. This can be dramatic if your 401k is served by someone like AXA/Equitable which have funds with ER's well over a percent. That's fair but not always true. Again, I'm just pointing out that you don't always want to roll it, especially if you're at a company with excellent 401k options. >Regarding the taxes, you're right. You can pay the taxes. But I personally am not a fan of paying unnecessary sums of money if I can avoid it. Especially when my traditional IRA is several hundred thousands of dollars to pay taxes on. You don't pay taxes on "several hundred thousands of dollars". You pay taxes only on the converted amount ($7,500 in 2026), and then only the proportion of traditional/roth in your rollover IRA (IE, if you have a 50/50 split you'd pay income taxes on $3,750). You'd pay taxes on that money eventually, you're just paying the tax to do the conversion *now* and have tax-free withdrawal later rather than paying taxes on withdrawal. Again, I want to say that I think you're directionally correct but there's so much confusion on retirement account taxation that it's important to be precise here.

Enlighten_YourMind

I’m curious, could you tell us some economic data that you might find to be genuinely bearish? IE would reliably result in the price of the major U.S. equities indices seeing sustained downward price action?

PaperHandsTheDip

Probably will be. Turns out a few big guys are involved, at least a bit. IE: Jane owns at least 5% of htz it seems.

burnaftergreeting

It means roughly 80% of shares are shorted. IE borrowed and sold short betting the stock will go down. Those bets have to be covered in the next 4 days. Hard to cover 80% float from 20% available shares. Have to buy. If no one sells, price goes up. Supply v demand.

Legitimate_Cut_6254

When you short a stock you sell "borrowed shares" at an assumably high price with the assumption that later you can buy back those shares at a low price. IE: People who short sold SPCX at 140 eventually have to buy them, now at the 110 mark making 30$ a share. I think the person above was correct, because both the short sellers and the institutions taking profit usually have an incredibly large pool of shares. Both sides will usually perform slow draw downs to limit price spiking (up in the case of the short sellers buying back their shares) and down in the case of sellers selling their shares.

KennytheDoggy

Not what it shows here? [https://www.franklintempleton.lu/our-funds/price-and-performance-etfs/products/27854/SINGLCLASS/franklin-ftse-korea-ucits-etf/IE00BHZRR030#portfolio](https://www.franklintempleton.lu/our-funds/price-and-performance-etfs/products/27854/SINGLCLASS/franklin-ftse-korea-ucits-etf/IE00BHZRR030#portfolio)

PaperHandsTheDip

Not very well when you try to use them to adversarially model each other / find faults in each others logic. IE: I can instruct an agent to create a design doc / spec - and get another to try to find holes / faults in it. In that sense I'm using the frontier intelligence to model the risk surfaces. The cheaper models kinda suck at that. They're incredibly good at doing what they're told to do... but they suck at reasoning. This is where the frontier models really excel and where I'm finding incredible value. I'm designing low latency trading systems and the biggest problem with HFT / trading is modelling the risk surface / finding ways your models / alphas can break. The frontier models are significantly better at this task. You WANT frontier / the highest intelligent agents for that type of work. I get clusters of agents and make them work together - with an agent creating design docs, another review + audit it, another set implement + code review, then another set adversarially analyze it (try to find any faults / vulneratbilities, etc). Then I get them to all work together to produce a feature... it works insanely well. I can let them self direct for 2-4+ hours with minimal steering. I can't do that with the weaker models.

Perfect_Ganache_1959

I think a lot of manufacturing doesn't care if it's (ambient) 25C or 40C - so long as it's predictable. You can make a frame with calculated expansion rates, fixture holes designed for tolerance, etc. Superconductors, data centres, nanometer scale lithography, ok sure, that's gonna care. The workers with heat exhaustion or cutting corners; absolutely a negative (example: high rise construction with dubious concrete because it was pouring rain, but we have a deadline!) Woodworkers have long known about humidity and acclimatised their materials before use. Food processing/agriculture though - different kettle of fish! IE we have fewer holes in Swiss cheese due to hygiene improvements - less dust = less microbial growth = less gas pockets. No vaccines because of insufficient horseshoe crabs to ensure quality? Ruh roh. Yet another bird flu? No thanks. So "will not work" is maybe too simple - parts don't care, the meat human and high precision bits do

PaperHandsTheDip

The important thing to consider with these are (1) are they fundamentally solid / still growing and (2) what are the risks involved (price action, disjointed from fundamentals). \- (1) looks solid. Capex going up, growing, insane margins, looks sustainable, etc. (2) is an interesting one. When everyone sees (1) you get a bunch of guys going long on leverage and you introduce a hidden risk in the markets. A leverage unwind. If the price falls at all - the leveraged guys sell to lock in profit, driving the price down further. It cascades and causes even more guys to do the same. It's a viscious cycle and leads to rapid price collapses. Funds intetionally short the fuck out of overleveraged funds / assets to cause bear raids / price collapses (and make insane profits). IE: Citadel made over $10b via liquidating leo's fund. ...that's what we saw last month. A leverage unwind. After a leverage unwind - it tends to be an absolutely fantastic time to go long if (1) still holds true - as the risk of (2) is drastically reduced. You often actually get the opposite effect - a lot of guys start going long / rotating back in / leveraging up again. You need to be very careful / observe leverage in the system as a whole tho - as if it rapidly goes up you can get a vicious drop and deleveraging event again.

PaperHandsTheDip

We got you. In practice - I've started using / integrating AI tools into my workflow and am paying quite a bit for them. I don't know much about palantir in particular. I'm currently paying \~$600 / month primarily for claude & codex & I can't get enough. I'm maxing out my subscriptions, I want more. If they offered better plans for $1000 / month, I'd jump on them due to how good they've become. I'm aware my lawyer and accountant have also started to integrate AI into their workflow. As intelligence gets more efficient & stronger, I suspect we will see jevons paradox occur with AI. Basically - as it gets better, cheaper & capable of doing more, demand will actually grow quicker than the efficiency gains we see. We're seeing signs of this from the hyperscalers already (ie: MSFT & AMZN reached profitability on their AI capex). For the tooling - what used to take me \~6-9 months can now be done \~6-8 weeks, and the quality is actually better than before I used AI. The next areas it's going to be integrated into en-masse are robotics. IE: There are package sorting & scanning robots out there who can run without rest, 24/7, for days on end, making 0 measured mistakes. Those are going to be integrated into our supply chain - and every step of the supply chain is going to have intelligence integrated into it. In this sense - that is what palantir is working towards from my understanding. After seeing what OpenAI & anthropic have done for software - it would not surprise me if we see the same thing occur with palantir with robotics. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons\_paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox)

PaperHandsTheDip

Recent ER's coming out of the hyperscalers suggests their AI investments are starting to reach profitability while simultaneously increasing their capex. As the models continue to improve / get more efficient / get better - more people will pay for them. I use AI tools for work - I spend \~$600 / month of my own hard earned money on it. Every single person that I know that has figured out how to integrate it into their workflow is seeing massive productivity boosts. Most are starting to pay for it. IE: I recently found out my lawyer and accountant are also using it. Demand is going to continue to grow as it gets better and people start integrating it into their workflows. They have done a fantastic job getting the tools "out there" (for free) - and they are starting to do a great job at capturing enterprise users / customers. Intelligence is going to be integrated \*everywhere\* - even outside software. Robotics is the next big area of innovation and will be the thing that "changes" how people view ai. We are seeing it integrated into humanoid robots that can do things like sorting & scanning packages. There is a prototype out there that ran for 80hrs straight, without rest, without making a single failure. Integrate that everywhere into the supply chain and now it runs 24/7, with fewer mistakes, etc. It's not going to slow down or stop.

PaperHandsTheDip

Thanks. That's incredibly unlucky timing buying right before a correction on SOXX. The biggest downside with triple leveraged funds is volatility drag - the daily reset destroys value. IE: If the market dips 50% and goes back up 100% (back to breakeven) - the triple leveraged fund will actually be behind - whereas an unleveraged fund would be back to breakeven. A bear market of 25%+ can wipe out 90%+ of their value... so you never want to buy one before a bear market. In that sense - I personally only ever buy them when we are well into bear markets in sectors that I'm bullish on. Basically - the market and the fundamentals disagree. It's a way to control / manage risk (fundamentally solid, already dipped, so odds of it dipping even more (or being lower in the next 1-2 years) are low). Typical bear market only lasts for 6-9 months before a new ATH is seen. So if you get in one - it tends to be a good time to buy. IE: For AI I understand how it is useful (I spend $600 / month on it) as it's decreased the time it takes me to implement features from \~6-9 months down to \~6-8 weeks. I believe others are starting to do the same in their respective industries - I'm aware that both my accountant and lawyer are using it in their day to day workflow as well. In that sense - I suspect demand is still growing & will continue to grow. There are a ton of people I know who haven't tried it. There is a ton of room for growth. The fact the hyperscalers are increasing their capex while simultaneously reaching profitability suggests that AI demand is real. It's not just me seeing the value in it (IE: spending real money). MU has a forward PE of \~5, for example. IMO that's insanely undervalued when considering the growing capex and the growing AI demand. AI is going to need more compute & more chips - not less. I do think this chip cycle is a bit different than previous ones in some sense - the driving force this time is commoditized intelligence. It's not upgrading hardware / buying new hardware. In that sense - I think that many of the chip companies are undervalued (and the semis too) - as the projected growth estimates are probably low. The correction we saw on SOXX looks normal. In every bull run there are corrections - it's expected. But so long as the companies continue their insane rates of growth - they will eventually go up. At the root of it all - it's basically a question of "will AI demand continue to go up?". I think it's "yes" - as almost every single person that I know who has tried it has started to integrate it into their workflow & isn't going back. I suspect there are a very large number of applications / things out there it hasn't been applied to yet - it's going to be everywhere.

PaperHandsTheDip

It would never make it to $1. Market makers don't have as much control over the market as people think - the price is generally defined by what the average person thinks it is worth and the market moves there. Market makers just try to guess what the average person thinks... if they do a poor job at that they will experience toxic / adversarial fills and lose money. You are correct - we need to wait and see for a bull run to be confirmed again. But by the time one forms its already too late. So long as the companies continue to grow at insane rates - they will trend up. The growth is showing no signs of stopping - ERs coming out from the hyperscalers are showing they are reaching profitability on their AI investments while also rapidly increasing capex. IE: I pay $600 / month for AI services for software. It's increased my productivity by \~5-10x vs pre-ai. Seriously - my tasks that used to take 6-9 months can now be done in \~6-8 weeks. Everyone that figures out how to use it effectively can't go back. The demand is insane / growing like crazy. I'm seeing AI explode in use cases too. My accountant is using it and I recently found out my lawyer is as well. It's the most expensive subscription I have - and I want more. I don't know what the future use cases will be - but I suspect that intelligence will be integrated into everything. It needs to run on something - ie, chips, which is why I think semis are great (especially in this dip). There's a company making sorting robots - which is really interesting (and kind of scary) to watch. It figures out how to pick up, scan and move an item over. It did something like operated for \~80 hours continuously, making 0 mistakes. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTqOfZDOgUM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTqOfZDOgUM) Future areas of growth: Integrate that literally everywhere in the supply chain - and now it never takes breaks, slows down or ever makes mistakes. AGI is quite a ways away - but as the models are getting better & better - they can be integrated into more and more things to automate more and more tasks. Writing software has just the "first" thing to be automated away, I'm starting to see it work its way into everything else. I don't think it's going to slow down or go away - everyone that figures it out / uses it wants more.

CruJones83

They stopped reporting subscriber growth which is a red flag. The subscriber growth they got from cracking down on password sharing is a one time “windfall” and not sustainable growth Subscriber growth is coming from more price sensitive geographies (IE. less profitable) than where their mature business is

PaperHandsTheDip

The answer is actually - yes! IE: The first c-section was performed by a butcher.

ShadowChief3

honest question. i am going to japan next year. would this help or hurt conversion rate? IE should ibuy hotels now or later?

Ready_Scratch_1902

is that pechanga? love the IE

riverpirate2

Long story short,NBIS was ghe largest holding of that fund, the fund was rx leveraged, NBIS along with ghe funds other large holdings were sold and shorted during the downturn to excelerate the funds leverage call and need to liquidate. IE. NBIS was driven wayyyyy down to sink a hedge fund

PaperHandsTheDip

Something to remember - is you have to buy into the fear / when nobody wants to touch it. I bought SOXL \~100-102 yesterday. Immediately blood red as it shot down to 90. Triple leveraged be like that tho - you gotta just hold. If you wait until after the ER's it's already too late. People start buying / pricing things in weeks before they actually occur. IE -- now.

pooterssssssssss

Today's one of those "Blue Horseshoe LOVES Anacott Steel" days(Wall Street movie1987 reference)... IE, a pump on nothing?

AnimCo

the worse part is i gave up day trading because i cant keep track of the market that close and have a job, and i fucking sucked at it. I decided I would just buy some shit and sit on it. •So here is mostly: NLR, VRT, SPY, VXUS, IWM, •with some under 300$ plays in: IE, IBIT, Himx, sldp, nbis, sqqq. and after a year to be in the negative is great. so i sold everything except SPY, VXUS, IWM put most my money in SPY going to wait for my 6k to give me 60$ in a year and buy some shotgun rounds and repaint my ceiling fuck this bs.

Comfortable-Swing468

To be fair hes not wrong, ***hes early***. And AI could cause productivity gains no seen since the industrial revolution. IE, hes wrong.

PaperHandsTheDip

I mean I bought some today, gonna buy some tomorrow and some more on friday. It reduces volatility in the entry / entrance. If I think the bottom is in the next \~2 weeks its better to average over a few days than lump sum into a bear market. IE: If I had $30k to invest, toss $10k in today, 10k tomorrow, 10k on friday. In the last week its down \~40% itself, so it reduces that volatility / gives a better entrance (averages closer to the true bottom if it occurs over the next \~2 weeks).

MassiveGainSwollMan

Incoming wall of text. Apologies. TLDR: Yes, Robinhood has been more than worth the price of admission in my own, admittedly anecdotal, experience. YMMV. Personally, I believe that choosing to add Robinhood, after starting with Acorns for my "more-liquid-than-my-retirement-account/emergency money/expendable income" investing was probably one of the best financial decisions I've ever made for myself. Mostly because of how much I've learned by being actively involved in the decision making process for every trade/strategy/position I take. I also still use Acorns, primarily for the automated roundup investment on purchases (IE ie spend 19.27 at the gas station, it will round that up to $20 and automatically invest the 73 cents - which then gets multiplied 3x or something IIRC... so it would automatically invest $2.19 for me.) I eventually added an M1 account as well, which is where I do dollar-cost averaging - deposits automatically from each paycheck into a three-fund portfolio (Bogleheads concept.) At the moment, the money flows into 60% total US stock market, 20% total international market, and 20% total bond market ETFs. I look at Acorns as a handy way to build a quick and easy emergency fund, Robinhood as my learning/speculating/gambling/edge development/testing platform, and M1 as my retirement that I maintain entirely independently from my job/career/current full-time employer - IE "user datagram protocol"/fire-and-forget-until-age60+ investing. I landed here because I'm also looking into also adding thinkorswim (TOS,) tastytrade (TT,) options trading, margins, etc. The biggest benefit for me, by far, in all this has been the education -which is always a work in progress: how money works, how to make it work for you, how the math of financial independence becomes possible, how poor people stay poor, how rich people stay rich, how people fall or rise into or out of each tier, when/why/how it matters, etc. The cost of each platform has been negligible (for me) and the return on investment has been absolutely invaluable. I grew up relatively comfortable but decidedly ignorant about finances, how to adult properly, how loans work, how debt works, how economies work, how power works, my own privilege, the price of being poor, etc. I didn't learn because my parents didn't know either. I'm not sure anybody I knew or associated with growing up had any idea how or why kids should understand money/financing/investing/economics/etc. If they did, they didn't share that information with me in any way I could comprehend or retain. Part of this is certainly on me (I severely ADHD and probably somewhat autistic but wasn't medicated until relatively recently.) I wasted a lot of time attempting to self-medicate my brokenness away. I've been trying to make up for lost time/money/joy/happiness/living since I got sober (about a decade ago.) So, for me, my own investing (if it can be called such.... the actual dollar amount I'm dealing with are basically trivial by anyone else's standards) has been well worth the price of the acorn/robinhood/m1 subscriptions many times over for the educational value alone. If I hadn't started learning this stuff when I did (I'm 43,) I probably would have had almost no chance of escaping wage slavery/crushing debt or ever achieving a bare minimum level of financial security. These apps are helping me educate myself and create a foundation. Now, I'm finally starting to build. I feel like I finally have a fighting chance of getting myself (and my family) free of the hamster wheel of generational poverty within my lifetime. It's finally starting to feel like less of a pipe dream and more of a difficult but not insurmountable goal (something akin to climbing a reasonable mountain.) I do information security by trade. When I started, I wanted to learn enough to be dangerous. IE I wanted capabilities that could make a difference within whatever digital environments I found myself. I never learned enough growing up to be able to handle money correctly or responsibly. Not even close. Within the last couple years, after lots of effort and research, I finally feel like I've begun knowing enough to be dangerous. Even if I'm only dangerous to myself and my own financial security. 😄 P.S. I also tried Fidelity app and found it to be VERY clunky, almost to the point of being unusable. I couldn't deal with it. People swear up and down by it, but it just didn't work for me. To each their own I suppose. Hope this is helpful for somebody, somehow. Thanks.

PaperHandsTheDip

We are suspected to hit AGI by 2030, and after extensively using the tools - I believe it. It's already significantly more intelligent than most people I know. The only missing piece is the context - which everyone has their own. If you feed it the correct context it does an incredible job at figuring out how to solve the problem. IE: The recent models have been able to one shot olympiad math problems. That's considered the absolute pinnacle of the math world.

PaperHandsTheDip

Not by much - it's better to start now than later. Median net worth (ie: your average joe) by 30 is \~28k, and \~88k by the time you hit your 40s. Don't be misled by average - as the mean (average) includes incredibly high earners which throws the data out of whack. IE: If 9 people had $20k and 1 person had $1m, the average would be $110k, but the median would be... $20k. [https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/average-net-worth-by-age](https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/average-net-worth-by-age)

FlipZip69

Not well or at all because it is mainly a rule databased AI. It was one of the main problems of a negative knowledge database driven system. IE. If i were to say 'Water is dry', it would be unlikely to have a rule for that. Thus it would search the database and likely come up with something like droughts or chemical composition of dehydration. Or it might just come up with 'no relevant information found'.

sonofalando

The entire economy is a scam and this includes the job market. If you look around you everything is being rigged with algorithms and AI tools. Shopping? Sure we’ll use AI and market based algorithms to determine the maximum that you’ll pay based on your demographic and what we know about your income and spending habits. Buying a car? All dealerships hooked into the same systems using algorithmic systems to scrape listings and price listings as close as possible to one another and refuse to negotiate in store. Stock market? 95% of trading is algorithmic bots owned by institutions. How about jobs? ATS systems using AI to essentially hunt unicorns and throw everyone in the trash heap if they don’t match even 1 skill despite it being similar to experience with a different tool. There’s now lawsuits because AI tools are found to be discriminatory including for those with disabilities. Companies claim they can’t be held liable because a human didn’t make the decision 🤡 How about just online shopping in general? The internet is flooded with bots and companies like Amazon use algorithms and AI to adjust pricing based on personal and spending habits per person and demographic. What about housing? Federal government filed suit against a company that was using algorithms and price fixing nationwide to ensure landlords were extracting the maximum amount from renters and disallowing competitive pricing because it’s “market based research” IE we know the maximum we can safely extract with computers that can price for the maximum instantly. The entire economy is rigged with price fixing and companies trying to use plausible deniability because “the software did it not a human therefore it’s not illegal”. EU AI act now has laws prohibiting the use of AI in hiring decisions.

poopermacho

IE power already had its run because they are constrained by the same grid limitations.

CoughRock

not going to lie, if they just hold the interest rate steady without constantly fkking with it. The inflation issue will sort it self out once demand destruction happen and new competitor or alternative commodity join on the supply side. But no one dare to plan any factory expansion to increase supply cause they never know when the fed will mess with rate again. Interest rate manipulation is just too board and too blunt of a tool when there are more precise tool that target specific area of inflation. IE: if food and used car are inflating faster than other sector, just increase a temporary sales tax increase for these sector until these sector specific demand get crush, no need to hike rate and destroy jobs in unrelated sector. Plus increase sales tax actually boost federal revenue and decrease national debt, so it's more targeted and help ease debt burden than interest rate. Both raising rate and cutting rate just cause way too much front running and whiplash effect. Just dont fkk with rate, the economy will sort it self out.

ohell

I hear you, but [what about other traders??](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-comparison-v2.html?isin=IE00B1XNHC34&isin=IE00BK5BCH80&isin=IE00BM8QRZ79&isin=IE000P3D0W60&isin=FR0014002CG3)

PaperHandsTheDip

Huh? Have you used it? Yes - weak engineers are reporting it helps them. Strong engineers are reporting it helps them even more, notice how there have been layoffs all over tech and it's one of the hardest industries to get into right now... The reason is a strong engineer knows the problem he wants to solve, how to frame it & how to approach it. Historically they would break it down into sub-problems and pass that workload off the juniors to implement. They would implement it, you would code review it / make sure its tested, etc, and integrate it. Now tho - the demand for that task can be offloaded to AI. I can design a system, cover all edge cases / testing / model the error surface in a design doc and get an agent to go over a plan to implement it. I can spin up a subagent to validate it (similar to how mythos is finding vulnerabilities in everyones software), it can ALSO find vulnerabilities / faults in your design. Then I get a set of subagents to go thru and implement the features with tests, and another set to go thru, merge them together and code review them. The result is I get a set of 10-20+ agents working on a single feature, with 100% test coverage, designs having been validated, etc. The weaker engineers don't understand that process / the dev process very well. Pre AI they were completely lost / wouldn't have been able to implement it. Now tho - they can just tell the AI's "build it for me". But - it doesn't know the constraints / design goals / edge cases, etc, so it just guesses. You end up with a system that "appears to work" but is full of faults / holes / etc. That's the largest difference between the two and how they approach problems. Yes - weak engineers are seeing productivity boosts, but strong engineers are seeing even larger ones. IE: The only reason I can shitpost is because I have 4 agents running right now - implementing designs that I built / iterated on yesterday. Each one is going to take \~2-4 hours (est) to wire up, test and validate. After that's done, I'll go over it and validate everything, then get another agent to validate it, again. Etc.

7nightstilldawn

Let me explain it to you: The US government has enabled and empowered the market makers (CITADEL) to ‘run it hot’ with the express unwritten promise that the government will bail out everyone who’s valuations could/would/and should tank, if the market was truly free and fair. THE US ECONOMY IS THE LARGEST PYRAMID SCHEME IS THE HISTORY OF ECONOMICS. Either play buy their rules, IE: Invest in a 401k and be thankful for 8% or get fucked.

essexboy1976

I'd say much of it has to do with "crashes" being very highly publicised and obvious as they're often relatively short term events ( IE they happen quite quickly) So people are more aware of their occurrence, whereas stock markets don't really go up at the same rate, they in general just gradually creep up year by year so the increase isn't as noticeable. For example the crash that caused the great depression is still in people's minds despite the fact there's virtually no one alive anymore that can actually remember it happening.

TennesseeTennessee

They’re sold by the 100 because they’re supposed to be used to hedge long positions of large numbers actual shares. IE: I own 10000 shares of AAA stock that’s got some risky outlook I’m worried about, I spend the premium to buy put options that give me the right but not the obligation to sell at the strike price (below the current price) to limit my losses without having to actually sell my shares. Regards here pay the premium as a gamble without owning shares because of their volatility and that they allow them to collect the increases or decreases associated with large amounts of shares. The gamble is that shares don’t expire and very rarely go to zero in an afternoon. If you don’t sell or otherwise unwind your option position before the expiration date it’s worthless, they can also expose you to risk 1000x what you put in, if you sell naked options you may be obligated to buy 100+ shares of whatever you were gambling on.

Brawmethius

I mean one of the few logical things market has been doing in reacting to build side reporting mainly huge margins. Yeah its cool for the shovel sellers but it also literally means the end users are paying more for less and it makes the ROI even more questionable which brings into question "will they continue to spend like this?" IE 1GW center daddy Huang said was about 50B what 6 months ago? Now its 100B. If the compute itself didnt become twice as valuable then thats a big red flag.

xDubnine

so you really think that russian oil being blown up and the strait closed again to hostiles (IE USA) is a good sign of world tensions easing? we are one saudi family away from selling us out and putting us all in soup lines, only i will be sippin on lobster bisque with my bear profits and bulls will be sipping on ice cube soup

PaperHandsTheDip

Entry level, yes. But entry level jobs are disappearing as they can be largely automated. The skillset has changed / is changing. Domain specific knowledge is significantly more valuable at the moment. IE: I'm implementing things at quite literally over 10x the velocity I was pre-AI. Everything is still adhering to my designs / standards. But instead of having to write a couple hundred lines of code by hand - I can get an agent to do it. Tell it to iterate a few times & 20 minutes later it does exactly what I wanted. Implement tests, etc, and it "works". Today I created and merged \~8 PR's exceeding 4k LOC, ie. I've been working while shitposting all day. The flow has changed drastically.

Moist_Emu_6951

Thematic ETFs only, the ones I invested in are KOID for humanoid robotics (IE000O6Z73N7) and CAUT for Chinese EVs (IE00094FRAA6)

Gulliveig

Ok, but then, why focus on a more or less randomly chosen title, why not just buy the whole sector? For example BTEC (ISIN IE00BYXG2H39), for me it made +50% in like a year. Just did a [small rebalancing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/1ulki3x/rebalanced_several_londonbased_etfs_in_my/) the past week along with some other sectors, but I certainly intend to keep the rest, exactly for the reasons stated by you.

LetsMoveHigher

How do people NOT realize that "AI" has been around for a long while? Think about how many times in the past 10 to 15 years you have spoken to automated machines (people). This is NOT new technology. The governments have been using AI on the people for probably the last 40 years. During that time, they have already created something much more better or in their own words incredible. We the citizens of this world get 40 to 60 year old technology to use. This way they always stay ahead of the mass population. They large push for AI NOW iis simply to get the citizens to PAY for the next upgraded "Technology". IE- it already exists and they habe told us this... 🤷‍♀️. Thinks

AlGAdams

When IV is already high because then the position requires more movement to be profitable.  IE using the strat on something like USO during early March Iran conflict when VIX was high.  Seems obvious its going to move and this obviousness is baked into the price of both legs.

ExplorerImpossible79

Also to add to this. When I am selling contracts I am usually looking for this exact kind of contract IE low Delta High IV

Sybertron

I mean the simpler take is there was negative movement on Semis, largely from a Anthropic is working with Samsung to make a ton of chips news, and the timing was right before a day off market closed day. So it may indeed be the beginning of the crash I'm not the market expert here, but the other thing that happens when the market is closed is volume is really really low. Therefore nothing is going to pump stocks, and anything negative tends to be really negative since there is no upward pressure in the market. Chips wise I really dont see how the antropic/samsung story does anything but make the existing supply much worse. Samsung isnt going to take those billions and suddenly swamp the market with MORE chips, they are going to go 'hey everyone we're moving these chips to reserve for anthropic, so you can pay more to keep your order or wait longer" IE the market just got more competitive and expect prices to go up even more. So overall I'm holding for now Im not down too bad, cause it could result in yet another pump in the next few weeks. Butttt I am really starting to scale out of AI stuff and getting ready for that crash cause even if the crash isnt real this amount of negative sentiment can certainly send a stock spiraling. And clearly there is a LOT of negative pressure right now.

Brawmethius

If you follow good practice of having sell orders on short term plays then you never have to worry about this. Meetings run long, things happen. When tens of thousands are on the line why add that uncertainty. If you are a discriprined trader, when you enter that trade, you have an exit price in mind already. THe first thing I do after opening a short term position is always open the sell side. Because hindsight sucks and is fucking useless. I have no magical foresite. So I settle with the second best option, automatically executed orders at prices I wanted. The biggest mistake I see traders make is exactly this, wanting to consider the short term play post fact. That isn't how short term plays work, your exit needs to be known before entering. Generally only requiring two decisions points (three if on vol event): profit target on thesis (exit price), cut price (stop loss if using, or just when you cut loose the position), x-y outcome (IE if earnings shows xyz I cut the postion, half the position, double the postiion, etc). SO much money lost chasing theoretical higher exits.

flynnccm

MSFT had lawsuit, similar to recent goog one, bc of Windows and IE in early 2000s. Never panned out and msft becomes most powerful company years later.

dAn_tHe_mAn7

I am really confused i didnt know there was two with the same ticker. The ISIN is IE000CEUZ052

skilliard7

It doesn't make sense for the app to be liable unless it can be proven that the injury was caused by their negligence(IE failing to conduct background check on driver). The driver should be the one liable if they are the cause of the harm. All of these tort costs just get passed onto riders.

BigBossShadow

you're confusing typing code with software engineering. Yeah typing code is mostly "solved", software engineering, IE solving problems with code is, at best, slightly improved

tachyonvelocity

Well new model means new valuations, IE low valuations.

CoughRock

i guess you miss the entire change inflation measurement to trimmed inflation part. IE: remove all the outlier price change and only keep the central cluster.

yomama_yodaddy

It doesnt matter until the markets closed IE the weekend when deals flop but theyre back on on tuesdays or thursdays

Glittering-Quote-635

Yeh, I actually know quite a bit about it.. I started my career at a company called Bay Networks, which was acquired by Nortel Networks in 1998. Nortel at the time was king of DWDM (Dense Wave Division Multiplexing) with the Optera line. We were selling oodles of that shit until the day we werent and the entire company imploded. Fun times. Ciena bought that part of the company, not sure what happened after that.. I think the DC's will be fine in terms of reusability. Some modifications for potentially greater cooling or more power, but thats doable. What I am not sure about is the need for all of them. IE, just like the fiber, we may end up with a glut of DC's that will be turned into warehouses or something..

LetsMoveHigher

Insiders and private money is able to sell early. They amended the lockout period for them so retail (IE pension and 401k's) will be left holding the bag. Don't worry though; the U.S government will bail you guys out with your own money. Causing mass inflation thus stealing 60% of your wealth. Been planned since 2008