IE

draculabakula

IF you are pointing out that the bubble is going to burst and some companies are going to go under, making way for new AI companies, I agree with you. My point is that I think the big 3 AI companies I already mentioned will likely capture some of the AI market (Google and Amazon more than Microsoft) by incorporating AI services into their already robust user and business services. Meaning that they will likely increase their revenue with AI a bit to add to their already massive businesses but since they own all cloud computing between the three of them, they will all extract revenue from any other AI business either way IE: openAI currently pays tens of billions annually to Microsoft (in the form of equity), Amazon, and Google in webservices. If these companies ended up losing money on their own AI efforts , they will still make money from AI overall. Likewise, because the cost to Google, Amazon and Miscrsoft to offer services is so much less than other companies, it's going to devalue AI services. For example, Google offers AI services as part of their G-suite service that millions of people and businesses already subscribe to.

Numerous_Priority_61

I don't think Moore's law is relevant here. Chips have not been doubling at the rate they used to for about a decade. The chips they are coming out with are incrementally better, but more power efficient. And at this scale the main cost of operating the chips is their electricity usage. So I don't know if there is a Moore's law for electrical usage but just watch Jensen Juans introduction of the newest chips. He is not emphasizing the fact that these chips are x amount more powerful than the previous generation, they are primarily focusing on their ability to use less power, and integrate with one another in a more efficient way. IE they can connect multiple chips to generate better results, or more compute power, and do it more efficiently. Its the same idea with Apples M1/M2/M3 etc. Even with their M5 chips they are still focusing on its power compared to the M1 chip, not the M4 or M3. It makes for better marketing. They can only fit so many transistors on a chip, they are already at the atomic scale. It becomes impractical after time. But next up is quantum computing, maybe, and we'll see what happens there.

metaridley18

No, obviously the models I'm talking about don't show that or I wouldn't be talking about them. Many models with a fixed % withdrawal rate require bonds or they'll underperform due to sequence of returns risk, but sequence of returns risk is literally caused by fixed withdrawal strategies. Again, I know I'm an investing radical, but markets work and mathematically pure equities positions outperform mixed asset allocation funds. Holding a bond position is keeping some of your assets out of the market in case of a market downturn, IE *timing the market*. I can't remember if links in posts get removed here or not, but https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGzgsSXdPjo

TheDeHymenizer

if you think my point is 100% of the time more information = higher prices then I'm doing a bad job explaining this. What I would say though is that more information TENDS to lead to higher prices and the few times it hasn't are essentially the market correcting themself. IE Private Equity discovering Assets > Enterprise Value permeantly priced that in. Bad subprime mortgages temporarily reduced them. But much like everything decreases are temporary while increases are permeant.

TheDeHymenizer

>Your example suggests that the market is overvalued and not efficiently priced, otherwise there would still be more PE deals. No. It would suggest the past was undervalued. A healthy market isn't one where a small group of people are going around liquidating companies. And naturally speaking these would always be bidded into not being profitable anymore in a world where it does happen. So if we were both 1980's corporate raiders looking for these we would both be bidding the price up until it no longer exists. IE the market was undervalued then not overvalued now (in regards to this example). >our argument also can’t account for 2008-09 when stocks were woefully underpriced despite similar levels of information. It similarly cannot account for the 2010 flash crash. The fact is that the market has boomed and busted for centuries and the CAPE ratio is decent at spotting an extremely overvalued market. This cycle has continued despite more and more efficiency of information. Lol liquidity events are a thing and if an example of 1980's corporate raiding happening in the modern era happened - I'd imagine they'd of been purchased during those windows. While the market wasn't being efficiently priced.

TheDeHymenizer

> Right but there is not a relationship between more information and higher prices There absolutely is though. IE the past undervalued companies compared to the present. An example would be privateequtiy's main business model used to be buy a company then sell all the assets for more then they purchased the company for. This play is virtually nonexistent today because that play is pretty much entirely priced into the market.

CaptianNemo2001

Most people don’t play the stocks and sadly their retirement savings is too willing to play with Nvidia and AI and Tesla. They will lose a lot eventually. The administration has so many half baked ideas it’s rather sad. Every opportunity to do something positive, and instead it’s a FIRE. Worse, all the hype on AI vs what it can actually do. And it can’t do very much. As to recession, nobody in power or with money wants to willingly promote such a thing, except the president, until they extract themselves from the system. IE find some suckers to buy in.

PaperHandsTheDip

Depends what you're buying calls on. I didn't really punt into anything "super high risk". IE: No tech, no QQQ, etc. I had some 1dte spy, but closed them. My closest expiration is currently 4+ months away, on healthcare companies.

Current_Animator7546

You think we start to see more varied moves from the Tech stocks? IE winners vs looses as we get deeper into AI?

motorbikler

I've been programming for a long, long time, and AI is _not_ the best thing to ever happen to my productivity. I'll paste one of my old comments comparing what it was like to develop 25 and even just 15 years ago to now: > Set up on-prem, like literally on your premises servers. REST was just finished as somebody's doctoral dissertation in 2000 and not yet standard practice. The difficulty of writing even just a basic CRUD app with no framework whatsoever was very high. Everything in Designing Data Intensive Applications was yet to be even discovered. > No Cloudflare to load balance, CDNs barely a thing, scale it up all yourself manually. Buildings full of people to manage this stuff. > And. AND! Have you worked with browsers before they were evergreen? Netscape, IE 6? Holy hell it was bad. > But the typing thing is somehow much different than that? > With AI I can create things, sometimes, in hours that would take me days, or days that would take me weeks. But before all the stuff I listed above, much of what I do would not be feasible at all, or what I did in hours would take years to accomplish, and many many millions of dollars. > AI companies are solving the easiest part of the entire problem, and not even well, and people think it's different.

PaperHandsTheDip

TLDR: Try to land a job in big tech / internships. \--- It's basically a "you gotta figure it out" type of thing. You can't find any tutorials on it - because telling you how to start or where to look invites competition. Anything you read online won't work. Arbitrage is a cutthroat zero sum game (negative sum when including execution costs). More or less only one person / system can do it for any given market. A good system tends to either capture 100% of the opportunity - or none. One of my current ones is over 90% caught by me, and over a 90% winrate. IE: It doesn't lose money over any 24hr period. However... it also cannot grow. If I tell people where I'm operating these days - or what markets can be arbbed there is literally no upside. I've poured years of R&D into the space. That'd be giving away years of alpha / proprietary research for free. Basically you just gotta try & fail. I've personally attempted over 200 different strategies / approaches and only 6 actually worked. \--- If you want relevant skills - try to get a job / internships in big tech. They are 100x easier than the HFT space imo. I previously did internships at both Google & Microsoft during my undergrad & was offered full time jobs by both. The interviews / coding questions are much easier than the types of problems approached in HFT in my experience. Big tech jobs are SIGNIFICANTLY less competitive imo, but the skillset is somewhat similar. Things like pay are reflected in that (big tech doesn't pay you 3-5mil / annum, which I have made before via this type of work)

CoughRock

this will pretty much open the flood gate to evade tariff. IE: champagne is a trademark product that has to grown from the champagne region. So by default it cannot be produce in usa unless us decided to invade france and occupied the champagne region. zero tariff bam. Then all chinese car maker has to do is trademark their car or whatever to be a regional specific item that cannot be legally produce else where. zero tariff.

CoughRock

you got to follow berserk's rule for sacrificing. IE: you cannot sacrifice something you don't care about to gain something that you do. That's trying to sell garbage for gold. Not even satan is dumb enough to take that deal. More appropriate sacrifice deal would be trade both your balls or eyes or something important for gain. So you are forced to make a hard choice.

PaperHandsTheDip

I bought May 620c's today. I'm hoping it'll run up / bounce. \--- My "loss protection" was that this bet was cheaper / higher payoff if it hits (but larger loss if it misses). I just punted less into it. I accept the loss if I'm wrong. IE: It took less capital to make the bet "meta probably bounces"

PaperHandsTheDip

One last one for ya'll. Cause some of you didn't like my other comments and it's hilarious to me. Markets are discrete. Continuous models are all approximations & are wrong. They can't model markets accurately. \--- Why? The only time markets ever move / change is when someone does something in them. IE: An event. When someone buys, sells, moves their order, etc. Those are events. They happen in SEQUENCE. It's quite literally impossible for multiple events to happen at the same time. Sure "at the same time" but when you zoom down to nanoseconds - its sequentail. Markets are quite literally built to be discrete and process events in sequence. Internally order matching engines use queues. Why??? Imagine there was only 1 item for sale and 2 people wanted to buy it. The guy who gets it is whoever gets there first / clicks buy first. If both click "at the same time" one will always get it first. Turns out its an arms race that is down to double digit nanoseconds now to get these trades (ie: arbitrage). Welcome to HFT. Continuous models only hold true if events can happen in parallel. Well - markets are built using queues. They're discrete in practice - and always will be.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm just trying to argue from a game theory perspective. Multiple games can (and do) exist at once, even in the same universe. It's weird / hard to explain. \--- For example, take war. Why do people / countries go to war? Well - it's because I believe I can gain more than I spend. Where does the gain come from?? The... other guy. His loss is my gain. We BOTH spend money fighting. IF I win, I get a gain. He takes a loss trying to defend himself, and a FURTHER loss on the resource which I took. \--- Markets are similar. War is negative sum. Markets are 0 in that aspect. My gains come from you. \--- We can ALL win - yes - but someone always wins harder than someone else. In a positive sum environment - you made 5% returns, I made 20% returns! Awesome! We both made money! \--- In a 0 sum environment - I made 20%, you made 5%, but when normalized I actually got like \~7.5% more total ownership, meanwhile you lost \~7.5% total ownership. IE: You lost power. \--- In a negative sum environment (ie: war) - I made 20%, and spent 10% to get it. 10% of my gains came from your resources. My gains are +10% after expenses. You made 5%, but spent 10% to "defend yourself" so actually lost like 5%. When normalized - I win.

PaperHandsTheDip

I should add to this comment - there is a mathematical proof that maps to the below that shows the average person underperforms the index. Empirical evidence maps (92% underperform "buy and hold" on average). It's because of the 0 sum representation. You can actually prove it using math. It's a basis of HFT!!! IE: I build arbitrage hft systems, and the 0 sum model is a basis for it. I'm not joking lol.

PaperHandsTheDip

That's why everyone loves loss porn. But people hate it when you post a thesis, it works and you net massive gains. \--- IE: Today I bought \~$500k of PFE and I'm up $180k on the day. They don't like that they missed it... even though I posted it when I entered.

sabatiel180

I don't think everything should be going up. IE, gold and spy. Not saying anything particular here except: **Watch out for you cornhole, bud!**

Adept-Bet-2420

Using IE these days gives you an Edge

PaperHandsTheDip

No shit it doesn't lol. The only thing that matters is if people are buying or selling. If the risk of selling is high, don't hold it b/c shit will go down. We saw that this week (AI IS A BUBBLE!!!). We're seeing that everywhere as people sell left right and center. I saw the trends just starting last week - which I identified as a macro risk. I posted last week what I did re: tech - sell it all and go cash. I was bang on the money. A bunch of guys thought I was dumb for selling it all. Fuck em, risk management wins. [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1ok4mlj/tech\_week\_exited\_all\_tech\_realized\_profits/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1ok4mlj/tech_week_exited_all_tech_realized_profits/) \--- This week I averaged into GAP calls. (22 & 24c's). \--- Today I played 0DTE's. Good money on them. [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1or2d1b/10k\_28k\_180\_gain\_0dte\_scalps\_this\_morning/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1or2d1b/10k_28k_180_gain_0dte_scalps_this_morning/) \--- All 3 plays were correct. TBH I rarely do DD / a deep dive. It literally doesn't matter. I'll do DD to get long term conviction - but that doesn't mean jack shit short term. IE: Long term I'm bullish on GAP, but I still sold my shit the other week (as I thought others would). I was right. I waited for a dip and re-entered. Markets are weird.

Former-Jacket-9603

There will be no "being well off". Don't you get it. There will be lords and there will be peasants. And unless you're a lord, IE familial net worth over 50M. You will be a peasant. How about we use our influence to ensure we don't get there instead of going "well at least I'll have these meaningless stock holdings in the dystopia".

GabFromMars

You can start with a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging), or programmed investment, on ETF: iShares Growth Portfolio UCITS ETF (ISIN: IE00BLLZQ805)

PaperHandsTheDip

Really appreciate the comments. \> Tariffs could 100% be an issue. I believe it's everyones largest concern (including, ie, mine). Yes, I'm inclined to agree. They were discussed over 30 times on the last ER's and it was the most discussed topic via analysts. I think there's a lot of uncertainty around them right now. GAP is diversifying their supply chain to mitigate the effects - with \~10% of inventory produced in china as of their last ER's and down to \~3% by EOY. \> Gap has to prove that their campaigns they have done lead to sales and conversion not just impressions. I think it’s really unknown until their earnings.  100% correct. We won't see this until their ER's, which are in less than 3 weeks. Trends and sales are often correlated, but not implicated. Incomplete data here. \> Old navy needs to maintain or increase their sales, banana republic also needs to do the same as well and any recovery story for Athleta. Old navy is the largest contributor to GAPs sales. It's over half of their sales iirc. On their last ER's they stated that they expect it to continue to do well & continue growing. GAP is their 2nd largest brand, and is the one I suspect we will see meaningful growth on. What I'm seeing online suggests that things might actually be selling (although I have no evidence yet, only speculation). I guess a concern of mine is how much is selling, and how much of an impact will it have? GAP is only 1 brand. We won't know until we see the numbers. BR & Athleta are likely small enough that even if they just "go sideways" and don't really grow / do much I suspect the much larger brands (old navy & gap) will dominate them. \> Their campaign with Katseye has faded out which is no surprise, but I do like is that they are able to do something different for the brand This is very true re: katseye. Trends come and go. What matters is the stickiness of them. What I liked is that they launched several followup ones (none near as viral) and they all seemed to do incredibly well. IE: See the Sandy Liang collection. I'm inclined to believe they increased their brand awareness via these campaigns. This is why I was looking at more recent campaigns / trends (the last one I saw was 3 weeks ago and sold out more or less instantly). Katseye was definitely the most prominent one though. \> This could potentially be the blueprint for Gap to bring cultural relevance again by putting themselves with thoughtful collaborations. I'm hoping.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Markets are typically driven from buyers who like the fundamentals or sell when they don't Then explain meme stocks & crypto. \> Lots of money has been made in bubbles, that doesn’t mean it’s sound investing When I invest I only have one goal in mind: make money. If I achieve that goal (even though if your fundamentals say it's "bad") then I consider it an amazing investment. I achieved my goal. I honestly don't care about \*what\* I'm investing in, so long as it goes up. I often know its a shit company. I don't care. I know there are other people buying it too - so it'll go up. I made money then sell. That's my goal. Do you have a different one??? \> Your feelings aren’t dictating the transaction, the fundamentals are. That's false - it's legitimately my feelings that drive my investments. Fundamentals are only one variable that make me feel good & be ok with holding something long term, yes. But timing it doesn't work based off fundamentals - which is incredibly important. IE: The execution part of buying. If fundamentals are solid but it's already pumped - I won't buy. I'll wait for a dip or sit it out. Those are vibes "lotta buyers recently, probs dips a bit because people take profits". Some people use TA, etc (I think that doesn't work) - some people just blindly buy, some use fundamentals. I use -- vibes. Rather - I use sentiment of other investors as that is what likely drives the short term direction of the market. \> You’re trying to argue that everything is a vibe and if everything is than nothing is, That is what I'm arguing, yes. Fundamentals make YOU buy or sell, correct. It's not universal though. For example - I often do no due diligence into my investments and instead buy based off vibes. It... works. I've drastically outperformed the average (up over 100% YTD) by using these methods. I often shitpost on WSB's all day and figure out what everyone is talking about. Those are generally "good vibes". I don't know anything about what they're buying - but it doesn't matter. Because the game is simply "I buy, they buy, I sell". \> “the same vibes as always” than thanks for the entertainment when you inevitably eat shit, because you will. I've been a full time trader for over 8 years. You can check my post history for some vibe based plays. I bought $800k of UNH leaps $5 from the bottom, for example. That was vibes. It wasn't fundamentals. I take / use a trading mindset over an investing one -- as it typically outperforms. It also "rationalizes" the market and makes its movements semi predictable.

Tough_Plant_5680


PaperHandsTheDip

\> Your take implies anything somebody feels good about is a vibe It is tho. That's literally what vibes are. Buying based off feel. \> Today’s environment isn’t a norm, there’s a lot different these days even if it’s not a first. Why do you believe so? Someone told you? The norm is (and always has been): People buy what they believe are good investments. That has ALWAYS held true. How they decide what is a good investment may be different - sure. But the thing that compelled them to buy is & always has been a belief that "this is a good investment". That is what a vibe is. It's not fundamentals. Fundamentals don't drive markets - buyers do. For example - someone may believe AI is a good investment & buy the top of a bubble. Fundamentally we are arguably in a giant bubble. Nevertheless - it has been a fucking fantastic trade that MANY people got incredibly rich off of. Including - ie - me. I made over 100% YTD from it. Do I think it's fundamentally sound? No - I think it's a bubble and gonna pop. Did I buy it? Yes - because other people were making it a great investment. That's vibes. Then you take profit and fuck off. IE: **Trade the trader.** \--- The underlying mechanics of how markets move (people buy -> goes up, people sell -> goes down) is the exact same as it always has been. The game is & alway has been "figure out what everyone else is buying & buy that before they do, so you can sell it for more later". Fundamentals are only ONE thing that cause people to buy, it's not absolute. Todays markets are more complex due to people buying & selling off more than fundamentals. So adapt. Fundamentals are a subset of vibes, not the other way around. Good vibes doesn't imply good fundamentals (see the BYND trade. It had fantastic vibes between $0.7 & $2.0). Everyone who bought made 200-400% returns in less than a week. Then sell. Everyone fomo'ing in made a horrible trade as they didn't understand the game. Good fundamentals implies good vibes, yes. People tend to buy when they think things are fundamentally sound. But people ALSO buy things that are not. Good vibes tends to imply a good trade (if everyone else is buying it - it'll go up). Identify the vibes before things move and you've found an incredibly profitable strategy. \--- That's what vibes are & why they work. Fundamentals don't drive the market - they are one of many things that can cause someone to buy or sell. But there are other things that cause people to buy too - and ultimately the thing they ALL have in common is vibes.

CoughRock

you could, think about all those loud mouth youtuber. What they do ? click bait and communicate. then there is sales role, use your talking to try to convince a stranger to drop10k above msrp to buy an overprice under quality ford card. Need that communication skill to fool someone into a bad purchase. It's really about how you use the skill. Go indie small business or go sales role. Although both roles require mental fortitude to stand up rejection after rejection. IE: most junior sale role have close rate like 2%, so out of 100 people, 98 will say you suck and spit on your face but 2 will sign that over price lease to buy that car. So it's all about mental endurance.

PaperHandsTheDip

It was always been vibes. You must be new to markets if you think they are somehow "different" these days. \--- Good fundamentals lead people to have good vibes. IE: "Shit, this company just executed XYZ! The financials suggest its drastically undervalued! BUY!!!" <- that's vibes. You only bought because you felt good about it. The fundamentals \*made\* you feel good - but you still only bought because you felt good about it.

PaperHandsTheDip

I have access to private investments with higher returns & lower risks. IE: I'm rotating a bunch of it into a new arbitrage system

Draphippo

I should have clarified better for people who are informed on the issue. Moving to Sched 3 doesn’t automatically allow banking/uplisting/custody, but it will undoubtedly lead to that in short order. It will be federally legal to sell Cannabis medically. IE: a company like Trulieve is virtually all medical sales, will be uplisted in short order. Sched 3 will also force congress to pass common sense legislation like states rights. Do your own DD. ✌️

PaperHandsTheDip

Y Combinator I believe. IE: [https://news.ycombinator.com/](https://news.ycombinator.com/)

PaperHandsTheDip

Likewise. It's also drastically outperformed any emergency fund for me. I have a LOC I can dip into if needed. I've used it 3 times in the last 5 years. Paid off within 1-2 weeks each time. The investments have roughly doubled during that time. If you have the self restraint - a LOC is a good alternative to an emergency fund. IE: $10k emergency fund -> $20k after 5yrs in the market. For the LOC, interest paid is fairly close to $0 as you're never actually using it. Not for everyone, but it's an approach I use. I almost never have any cash - I just sell investments when I need to. It does better over the long run.

PaperHandsTheDip

It doesn't really matter. It's about growth of investment - and I'd rather invest in something with higher returns. Normalized for USD depreciation (down \~9% YTD), you'd have gotten \~30% returns investing your USD in Canada vs \~16% YTD in the S&P 500. IE: Almost double the growth. If you invest in <BIG TECH COMPANY> and it grows by 5%, great! But I'd rather invest in something only worth $1b and have it go up 200%. Sure - absolute growth of big tech is larger, but that's not how to win this game. \--- The point about tariffs stands. See: cost of goods skyrockets as people selling shit adjust prices up to compensate for tariffs to keep their margins.

Harrigan_Raen

Enshitification is real. My peak reddit usage was probably pre-covid. The amount of bot posts/bot comments/reposts/corporate advertising accounts I see every day has only continually pushed me further away. Also the absurd amount of content from other sources IE Twitter, Tiktok, etc. has been killing it for me. I intentionally don't have those socials cause I don't want that shit within my sphere.

PaperHandsTheDip

On amazon looks like you can sell 227.5p's for \~$7.5. IE: As long as amazon remains above 220 you make profit. You collect a \~3.5% premium by friday. If it goes up, pocket 3.5%. If it goes down - you essentially commit to a 227.5 entrance, but it's effectively equivalent to a $220 entrance

PotPumper43

IE their own employees who survive on their shit wages. They’ll go bankrupt before they pay workers.

thememanss

Never bet on a crash of you plan for long term, and have low risk tolerance (IE, aren't dumping money in speculative plays). Even in the event of a "crash", the run up to that point will likely make your buy in point higher anyway in good companies than if you bought pre-crash. For now, Google doesn't look to be going anywhere bad for the foreseeable future. Almost all of its headwinds are behind it, and it's crushing earnings. You missed a major leg up, but I doubt it will be stagnant 5 years from now 

Areyounobody__Too

Extremely cheap equity cost on the company makes it easy to acquire significant stake in telecomms relating to mobile/fixed/cloud networks. Nokia also does a lot of work relating to urban environments, with traffic systems and other types of information transfer through telecomms networks. For example, Nokia can provide technology to a city where they can setup a central command point that collects data on water quality and relays information on that to the public health agency. Which can then quickly process that data to local health centers about advisements on current illnesses to watch for. You can leverage fiber/wireless networks to increase the efficacy of information relay during emergency operations, adjust street light timing on the fly to help traffic move more smoothly during unusual events or sudden traffic loads (IE a car accident), etc. Nokia is an unsexy pick on stocks, but there's a reason some people stan them so hard. Honestly, I expected a company to come and just purchase them outright.

HolymakinawJoe

Meh. Give it all a bit more time. The fucked up-ness is coming, for everything. We're going to get slammed with many wars, some civil wars(IE: America), more bad diseases, economic shit-shows, and climate catastrophe.........all at the same time. No one can predict exactly when/how each thing will happen. We're all just guessing......but there are some very educated guesses from people smarter than any of us that are talking about all those things.

Every_Recover_1766

I’m addicted to coffee but I’m too broke to make it at home. IE, I work two jobs and I’m home maybe an hour a night besides sleep. The Starbucks is a great expense (especially since I can write it off on my taxes) because that venti caramel macchiato do be keeping me awake lol

PaperHandsTheDip

I know. It works lol. It gives you a slight edge... it's why I do it. Portfolio gets large enough and it becomes worth it to do. IE: I only bought AMZN last week because of shitposting. I'm currently up over 150k. That's worth as fuck

PaperHandsTheDip

Unfortunately people won't be getting any. I've rotated into and out of it a few times, which resets the cost basis. I've taken over 500k in profits out of this one tho, and still have \~a million left in it (all calls). I constantly move my capital around pending risk profiles, etc, which changes things. IE: See my profile for how I recently played AMZN. I made over 150k in less than a week (posted when entered) and the rotations I did today resets the cost basis of things. TLDR: I'm up, realized over 500k, but I don't have screenshots. I still have 100% of my Jan 2028 20c's, everything else has been trimmed / rotated into / out of several times.

Frosti11icus

If I recall correctly there hasn’t been a sustained period where the average price of housing has gone down in like 80 years or something. IE people being underwater en mass would require something so catastrophic happening that no one would actually care they are underwater.

milkplantation

I've provided significant resources and sources and all you've said is *"fake news"* which feels pretty typical of a troll, but I digress... The charts in the article I sent are from the Canadian government and show US citizens or US residents immigrating to Canada from 1980 to 2025, as the article states, many temporary migrants (H-1B workers and international students) are seeking more stable opportunities in Canada. H-1B is a specialty occupation visa for engineers, software devs, data and financial analysts, architects, scientists, accountants, and medical professionals. All of these professionals must have a degree and that degree must match the occupation field. IE: Skilled workers. We can safely conclude that thousands have exited specific federal science and diplomacy agencies (EPA, USDA, State dept.) since January 2025, and that coincides with earlier migration waves from 2017 to 2019. For tech, academia, medicine there is very strong directional evidence such as enrollment drops and migration spikes to Canada, [H1-B deterrents](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-suspends-the-entry-of-certain-alien-nonimmigrant-workers/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), and visa delays that show losses in the thousands at some federal science and diplomacy agencies, and significant drops in the immigration talent pipelines. No sense arguing with someone experience cognitive dissonance. “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” Have a good one :)

Gold-Bid-6169

I think the big thing that retail fails to realize is that AI CAN be here to stay, AND there can be an AI/Tech bubble burst…it’s as if they don’t realize we still have the internet AND there in fact was a Dot-Com bubble burst..? Core companies are not going away - but astronomical valuations combined with forward PE like nothing we have ever seen…will in fact, cause a sell the news domino effect. When and how, remains to be unknown - but anyone slightly rational would say it’s unsustainable. And yes - sell the news can and does happen, even on good news like an earnings beat and positive guidance. IE INTC last week - on the surface checked boxes - deeper details showed less than anticipated guidance…thus sell the news🤷‍♂️

feenixOmlette

"At just over $2 we are back to reasonable value". Bro. The company is massively in debt still and isn't solvent. IE. When you buy shares in this company you are effectively paying to hold pure debt. It has negative asset value. The business hypothesis was that plant meat would replace regular meat as the main thing people eat when they want meat. That failed. They presumed covid would change meat storage and supply forever. That didn't happen. No one cares anymore. They presumed vegans would like to eat meat tasting non meat. Turns out vegans don't like the taste of meat a lot of the time. They tried to move into china and got crucified. The Chinese have very little concept of animal cruelty. They have no problem eating meat. Vegetarians don't even exist in china for the most part. And to top it all off their fake meat looks literally like a penis in that one picture. The whole shit is fucked. The hedgies are shorting it because it is a shit company with no future. I'm sorry, but the stock market is supposed to be fair valuation for companies not some place where you randomly buy names to make the price go up so you can sell it for profit and get out before the others do. Shitcoins exist for a reason.

Gold-Bid-6169

Bigger risk that isn’t overly common but has and can happen… you get assigned on the short call - account is on margin and doesn’t auto exercise the long call to cover. Isn’t an issue unless…short call gets assigned at midnight and between assignment at midnight and market open/whenever you realize you were assigned…the underlying gets hammered. IE all profits lost on long positions and may even end up negative before you exercise to cover. Especially risky on dividend stocks as early assessment on ITM low DTE options get exercised early to capture dividend and take itm position

PaperHandsTheDip

That's because everyone realized just how much of the internet relies on them. And nobody is gonna switch cloud providers on a single instance of downtime. IE: I use them daily for my work / company. No fucking way we're switching. AWS has a great track record.

PaperHandsTheDip

It's not about the money. I lose more money on the daily (no meme). IE: My account dropped by over 750,000 usd yesterday just due to volatility. I don't care about the money. It's about the status / connections. IMO that is worth more.

PaperHandsTheDip

I do it on WSB's. I'm thinking of doing it in other ways - but in particular among people I know in person / real life. I feel like the leverage I'd gain thru that is worth more than the money I'd burn. IE: I spent over $100k this year to get connections to some guys in the caymans / british virgin islands. No meme. I feel like I should burn another 100-200k for some more. I think the social value is worth more than the moneys.

PaperHandsTheDip

The only thing I saw was 'AWS went down and half the internet died. So reliance on it is INSANE'. Higher than I think everyone realized. That's bullish. Also this guy just told me the largest cloud provider just grew 18% in absolute terms. That's fucking insane. IE: This is bullish news, not bearish like he is framing it as.

Babymetalatthedisco

OP after realizing their spam bot and spamming tactics aren't working 

Ready_Scratch_1902

bynd round trip for real though. drove thru beverly glen. back to the IE.

blorg

They're not, they are up, as [ex-US is up significantly more than US](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VOO,VXUS&p=4&O=011000). US is still 60% by market weight in an all-world index though, so it's not *that* much of a difference. You can see here [Vanguard FTSE All-World](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3RBWM25) is up +7.32% YTD in EUR. It will be the same within a decimal place in DKK as the krone is pegged to the euro and the exchange rate barely changes, it was 7.46 Jan 1 and it's 7.47 today (a difference of 0.1%).

blorg

You can see this with [European S&P500 ETFs](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3XXRP09), in EUR +3.36% YTD, CHF +1.41%

PaperHandsTheDip

Use caution and manage risk with every tool you can. IE: I bought into ABAT yesterday and stopped out this morning. My current largest position is actually $GAP. Goodluck!

PaperHandsTheDip

Vibes. A ton of eyes were still on them. IE: I've been watching it ever since DOE rugged them waiting for a bottom to appear. A bottom & 30% pop in a single day is enough for me. Purely vibes

RememberTooSmile

lmao it’s the EST server that’s an issue but it’s affecting global places, IE many Australians have been reporting issues

IAmTheWalrus-Too

It is a bubble because of the multi-billion dollar circular deals. The SP goes up on the news today, but it takes years to build out a datacenter. Executing these tasks within the timeline is impossible. - You are not going to see the ROI for a few years. The market will react negatively on subsequent ERs. - There is a huge shortage of blue collar workers (Electricians, Carpenters Plumbers, Welders…) to build the data centers. - Supply chain delays for industrial building & electrical systems. IE: There is currently a 2 year wait for transformers. The other concern is that compute technology always advances (significantly every 2 years). So there is a chance the customer will require change orders or possibly outright cancel orders. For instances if Quantum computing has a major breakout in the next year.

PaperHandsTheDip

What do you mean? I'm just stating that funds typically start looking at companies 4-6 weeks before ER's and they tend to open positions if they're bullish. Watch flow weeks before ER's to get an idea where market is likely to go. No PTSD, I'm just seeing a lot of bullish activity on some of my investments that have ER's coming up next month. IE: GAP had over 85,000 Dec 24c's volume on Friday. That's not retail doing that.

PaperHandsTheDip

Canada has a weird financial landscape due to our banks. They basically control everything / have a cartel in a way. Shits weird. I'm heavily involved in a few industries that Canada won't even really look at / consider due to 'high risks' involved. IE: I do various forms of HFT (arbitrage) in one of my businesses. I view it as a free money printer. They call it "high risk"...

PaperHandsTheDip

I don't run stops on my options based off price action. I said this in my original post. I trade thesis, and the thesis didn't change. It actually got stronger. My original buy in was based off nothing other than the katseye ad going "I think GAP just went viral / got popular". They've launched 2 more campaigns since, both highly successful & more or less sold out online. IE: This campaign started Oct 10th. It reportedly sold out like 50% of the inventory in minutes. Everytime they restock it seems to immediately sell out as well. Previous campaigns were similar. https://preview.redd.it/5o49misvoqvf1.png?width=1262&format=png&auto=webp&s=47177b1eaa6915f9d43cdb59b1ee0b11791d77c1

ddr2sodimm

Other alternative is to live a simpler lifestyle and be more choosey with what your standard of living should be/imagined. *IE: living in within means.* Yield chasing can be a slippery slope.

eltuna3636

If anyone is interested in learning more about Bitcoin I would recommend “Broken Money” by Lynn Aldyn. It’s more a book about financial systems over time (IE talks about humans using shells as money, the US dropping the gold standard, the rise of fractional reserve banking, etc) but has some interesting takeaways and does touch on bitcoin. Lynn goes over what makes a sound money (divisibility, durability, fungibility, stock to flow ratio, etc) and talks about why gold was so dominant for so many years. Really interesting read that I think many here would like.

PaperHandsTheDip

Correct. I'm saying if anyone sells you arbitrage - you're getting memed. /u/[orangeyougladiator](https://www.reddit.com/user/orangeyougladiator/) is correct. Arbitrage generates a finite amount of returns and tends to cap out at low active amounts of capital. It's a highly competitive winner take all 0 sum game. You can try to play, but you need the best system running on any given market / corner of the market. Costs to operate these systems is high, and people that can build them often take home 7 figure salaries. If literally anyone else in the world gets a better system, you lose 100% of the market immediately. It's either "we lose every trade" or "we win every trade" with no room inbetween. IE: Our current system has a success rate of \~95% and literally does eat / catch every arbitrage that appears on our corner of the market. The reason we don't sell it - is because the returns are finite / known. It can't grow (unless market does) - but we've already caught 100% of the ones we are on.

PaperHandsTheDip

RSI doesn't work lol. I've been full time trading for over 8 years (started with HFT / arbitrage). I trade options using vibes and it's been winning quite hard. IE: I'm up \~1.8mil over the last 2 months from vibe trading. The spy options are just memes and for fun, I'm not joking lol. See: post history for more context. I posted positions when I've entered. TA doesn't tell you sentiment of buyers and sellers. It \*guesses\* what it is with no sample source other than recent price action. There have been experiments where charts are generated using a random walk function and given to people who do TA and claim they can predict what is going to happen next. It was generated with a random walk - and the next steps are quite literally \*also\* a random walk. Interesting observations. RSI, Moving averages, etc, don't mean shit on it - yet people still use them and claim it works. I don't believe in TA, I've never met any serious trader who's been consistently successful with it. Shitposting and talking to others tells you what people actually think. IE: I interact with others and see how they feel / what they think. That's a much better indicator than lines on a chart. It's why I'm averaging 150-200+ comments a day. No memes there lol.

STAYSTOKED808

IF this is actually real, or as a suggestion to anyone who is winning well this Month to date...Suggestion: Take 10% out and reward yourself for doing great. Use lockout max give back loss limit of 10-20% your current PNL 7,000. DO NOT give back more than that this month. You earned a positionof power "POP" huge psychological advantage. Start training with legit credible elite education programs. Not finfluencers. Take 10% of your PNL apply to that education will give you great ROI. You are not using stops, eventually that will bite you badly. Also, users will more inclined to dialogue here if you show more data IE what trades did you do to get 17000% bc otherwsie seems sus

PaperHandsTheDip

Variable change > the rest. Consider it or you'll get rekt. You should be able to look at an investment and re-evaluate it at anytime. Something I try to do is imagine that I have 0 exposure (especially if I'm red). I ask myself "what would I do here?". Emotionally often I want to cut losses, but then if I think about it, often the inverse is actually the correct decision, so I'll continue to hold. IE: Inverse myself. Likewise - I often look at things like "would I buy this right now?" after it's run a lot and the answer is "probably not" so I'll take profits / rotate out.

lo8_8

Its not particularly funny. More ironic that Berkshire bought a company that makes rat poison after calling Bitcoin rat poison for years. IE... Berkshire believes that rat poison is something that can you make you money, so why not just buy Bitcoin.

PaperHandsTheDip

oh it shit the bed harder than the rest today. That's unluck. Spy down like 0.1% and nvidia down 4.41%. Entire market actually went up if you remove nvidia. NVDA is 8.09% of the spy. IE: It single handedly accounted for a \~4.41% \* 0.0809 = 35.6bps drop of the SPY. Market actually went up today on average, except for nvidia.

neuvazealandia

$IE could be another copper/electric minerals play one analyst from $JPM has increased their price target to $189 current price $16.70. The US based mining and exploration company has massive mines in the US and joint ventures abroad. They also have impressive surveying tech and majority stake in an energy storage company. https://ivanhoeelectric.com/about-us/overview/

PaperHandsTheDip

What's your argument for this? Have you actually used it in the last \~10 years? The innovation coming out of the field is amazing. IE: See hyperliquid for a great example (it replicates the performance of the NYSE, but as a DEX). You can literally build HFT systems for decentralized markets now. Over 200k TPS, and you don't need to worry about counterparty risk. Prediction markets are great too. Companies are tokenizing their shares (see: what robinhood is trying to do). Kraken is already doing it too. You can trade them anytime, anywhere, without needing to go thru the stock market. Crypto solves the counterparty risk problem, which is a fucking amazing feature. It has \~600million users globally, and growing. It also solves the 'bank blocked your transaction' problem, which I've dealt with before. It's a fucking PITA to try a transaction and have it frozen, and have to deal with that. It's always the same shit "yes, that was me. Yes, I tried to send that money. Yes, it's legit". Ok - sent. There is a ton of innovation coming out of the industry right now, and imo you're foolish to write it off as a 'nothing burger that's going to $0'. \--- Have you actually used it???

PaperHandsTheDip

Haven't invested in either. Coreweave? Coreview doesn't pop up as a company lol. Personally I fully rotated out of AI. I'm sitting it out now, took my like 100% on it this year and ran. IMO bubble risk is far too high and OpenAI won't be able to deliver (the expectations are hundreds of billions and it's making like 1.5b right now). I was asking around and a bunch of really smart people I know all see the same thing. IE: I have basically 0 tech here, I'm perhaps regarded. Dunno.

PaperHandsTheDip

I have no say, I'm not american. I just evaluate the games and try to play them by viewing their incentives (ie: objective function of any game). It tends to do 'ok'. IE: I averaged down \~100k of shares on Friday into 'safe' shit that I thought overreacted. I didn't think we'd stay deflated, but didn't buy calls because of risk profiles. It worked, I'm up massively on them today (despite being down overall still)

dogefool88

Bought BROS and IE shares last week. Sold BROS for a mega profit, will let IE ride - after all it falls into that rare earth category :)

PaperHandsTheDip

It's far higher liquidity & leveraged than equities, trades 24/7, and the counterparty is the exchange themselves. No 3rd party. It's what everyone who seriously trades crypto uses. The volumes of the perps is often \~10-20x that of the spot market (which is \~10-20x more than ETF's). IE: Often over 100x more volume going thru that market as well. I think everyone trading crypto thru ETF's are memes. What monkeys, they no understand the games being played. It's super easy to do. You can get a wallet directly on your phone to self custody funds too. Basically deposit funds from bank -> your wallet (USD -> USDC). Then transfer that to these venues and trade directly on them. It's super easy to do, but gobernment doesn't like it as they can't track / regulate it. You can trade on hyperliquid as well and there is literally NO 3rd party / counterparty risk. It's a DEX (decentralized exchange) that allows all of the above. But - nobody runs / owns it. It's run via a giant decentralized network. No risk of counterparties not delivering on their end, which is cool. It's why it exploded recently. I've used it a few times before, super cool tech.

PaperHandsTheDip

Here's reference for binance: [https://www.binance.com/en/futures/trading-rules/perpetual/leverage-margin](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/trading-rules/perpetual/leverage-margin) Seems they \*increased\* max leverage to 150x. Last I looked it was like 125x (and previously 100x). Basically you can use as much as you want, just don't let the market \*ever\* go against you. They offer that much for algo traders (who can respond to movements in microseconds, so can actually manage the risk / leverage). IE: I algo trade and frequently \*DO\* use > 50x leverage in them

PaperHandsTheDip

They typically require \~200% initial margin (you can get lower if you're friends / have connections) for high leveraged positions. IE: Have $500. You can enter into a $25k short (50x) and they'll allow you a $250 buffer room (1%) on your 25k short. They'll liquidate you if the value of the short goes over $25250. I don't recommend using any more than like 5x leverage (if you're brave). You get a larger buffer with lower leverage. Basically, just don't let you're position go \~50% negative relative to your collateral with high leverage. They allow larger buffers with lower leverage.

PaperHandsTheDip

Trade perps. Literally any venue will offer them. Coinbase does, Binance does, Okx does, along with all other major crypto players. It's a derivative contract offered on their futures platform. IE: A perpetual swap. A contract that (more or less) follows the spot market within a few basis points but you can leverage all to shit (binance offers 100x leverage)

PaperHandsTheDip

It's expensive, yes. The trad markets (equities) guys I know work in a team of 4, of which 2 are full time FPGA engineers. Those guys in a traditional firm likely would be paid 500k-1m+ \*each\*. So human capital cost of $2m+ just to operate / maintain a system. Throw in the rest of the infra stuff and they're likely over $3m / annum at a guess. I've heard rumors from mutuals that they net >$10m / annum profit fairly consistently tho -- so it's worth. \--- Our operation is smaller (just me & a partner) who design systems. I've built over 5 working production ones before. Net \*profit\* tends to bounce between $1-10m / annum, which is good imo. IE: These are some relevant arb returns from a decayed system. This one netted us \~7.5mm in it's first year than rapidly decayed -- so much so that we don't even run it anymore. https://preview.redd.it/hvp8r4859ruf1.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=279cf38bfeab931128d8902e98413ca9c1b0a6f8

PaperHandsTheDip

yep - as long as you use your home as collateral. They let you take out like 70% of it's value as a no-questions asked loan. So long as your home doesn't drop by 20%+ you can just do whatever the fuck you want with the money. Interest accures into the loan itself - you don't even have to pay it off immedialtey. The loan just keeps growing until it passes a threshold and they reposses your home & liquidate it to cover the loan. Otherwise -- you're fine. The rates are more or less equivalent to a mortgage plus like 50basis points. You could have done that and punted it into crypto without issue, yes - and I know people DID. That's literally what that video was discussing... IE: It's basically a second mortgage, no questions asked, that you can buy your lambo with if you want. Or bitcoin - which these guys did

PaperHandsTheDip

They're HFT latency arbitrage, so yes. IE: I don't really assume much market risk & drawdown over any 24hr period more or less doesn't exist

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm personally friends with a few guys who had bags of crypto early / cheap. I was mining dogecoin circa 2014 & made some friends with guys who were into BTC 2012 (less than $1, he was his highschool drugdealers via the silk road, another was mining them on his desktop at home). The drug dealer guy had over 1500 bitcoin at one time and made \~$10k from selling drugs so he was happy. When BTC crossed \~$200 he told me he regretted his decisions. Haven't talked to him in \~9 years, so dunno where he is now. Probably kicking himself every day. I am friends with a guy who got into the ETH ICO (\~30c) and has \~5-6mm worth now. I see him like every 2-3 years. I'm also friends with another who invested \~1m into BTC when it was less than $1k, and he's kinda like an angel investor around here now (IE: He has over 1k btc as far as I'm aware).

dogefool88

What will be the impact t on CRML, MP, IE, etc.?

PaperHandsTheDip

No, they reacted to it tho. They didn't predict tariffs coming, but the existing bets there spiked to almost 100% after the tweets, then cooled back down to \~20%. IE: Everyone reacted hard (and predicition markets even showed that) and they cooled back to where the odds of this thing escalating probably really sit

PaperHandsTheDip

well, mangos recent tweets imply he may be bluffing and tackbacksies. Prediction markets dropped the odds of tariffs from close to 100% to \~20% now. IE: Market doesn't expect jack shit to change and mango was just tweeting like he always does

Fapados

VWCE is diversified when it comes to equities, but you could diversify further with different asset classes. Bonds are the most common choice for that. Pick a bond ETF you like from [here](https://www.justetf.com/en/search.html?search=ETFS&resetPage=true&assetClass=class-bonds). [Global aggregate bonds](https://www.justetf.com/en/search.html?search=ETFS&assetClass=class-bonds&region=World&bondType=Aggregate) are the most diversified (for example, [EUNA](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BDBRDM35)), but you could pick [European government bonds](https://www.justetf.com/en/search.html?search=ETFS&assetClass=class-bonds&region=Europe&bondType=Government) or [US treasury bonds](https://www.justetf.com/en/search.html?search=ETFS&assetClass=class-bonds&country=US&bondType=Government) as well. Just watch out for TER, preferably pick something below 0.10% if possible. As for gold, in my opinion it's more of a hedging tool rather than a long-term investment. Unlike stocks and bonds, it has no cash flow. It's a purely speculative asset. The price usually tends to represent uncertainty. When investors are uncertain about the market or the economy, they resort to gold. I personally wouldn't hold gold long-term, and neither would I buy gold at ATH. The time to buy gold was at the beginning of the year, when this whole shitshow began. Crypto is a purely speculative asset as well. Bitcoin and Ethereum are at ATH. I don't think this is a good time to buy. If there's a bigger dip or a crash, it may be a good buying opportunity. But who knows, maybe it will go higher, maybe not. Nevertheless, I wouldn't allocate more than 10-15% of my portfolio to crypto. Commodities (oil, gas, agriculture etc.) are another asset class that some people use for diversification, but I personally wouldn't invest in it, as I find it too risky. Just stick to VWCE and a bond ETF. The allocation ratio is up to you, whether it's 90/10, 80/20, 60/40 etc. The closer you are to retirement, the higher your bond allocation should be.

PaperHandsTheDip

I picked up like 750k of GAP this week. Riding 2yr low, shit selling out online, people saying stores are busier than normal and a lot of social buzz on them right now. PE of 8.5, not growth priced in. IE: this was their campaign launched 8 days ago. [https://imgur.com/a/VTCsni7](https://imgur.com/a/VTCsni7) They launched another one today and it's already also sold out like 6 items.

PaperHandsTheDip

Levi's doing bad is bullish for gap tho, no? Look at the GAP hasn't reacted at all to levi's earnings (yet). We will see tomorrow. If levi's is losing then someone else is winning. Levi's also has a PE that's like 3x higher than GAPs and what I'm seeing is GAPs shit is selling out online. They've had some massively successful ad campaigns that got a lot of attention. IE: Look at the gap studio one - a ton of items sold out in less than a week. https://preview.redd.it/00e8cfees8uf1.png?width=836&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c504012eb6490e54c7dede29a7ad2e1cb6b444b

PaperHandsTheDip

you basically need \~2-2.5m + a home to hit a 'secure' level imo. That gives you \~100k passive income and no 'real expenses' on your home. IE: You need a net worth of \~3.5-4m+

Valvador

> AI actually decreases intelligence development and that's a way bigger negative than gain to society I don't think this is true, though. This is like saying "letting people use calculators decreases intelligence development". The actual good use cases of AI, your intelligence gets allocated to different more complex problems because the boilerplate BS is done for you. I'm not becoming less intelligent because I didn't manually type out a boilerplate for-loop I've written thousands and thousands of times. The bigger risk is when people who don't have the skills to begin with start relying on AI without learning and understanding those skills first (IE: People using Calculators before doing the math by hand first).

dogefool88

IE - has anyone looked at it? Can this be another US government investment candidate?

PaperHandsTheDip

It's called quantifying risk -- it's not flawed, it actually works quite well. The only risk to a company is if other people sell it. The more people that buy in the more than can sell it. Once people buy it's not super often they buy more - it's new buyers coming in. IE: risks of sellers go up when price does. The same story is playing out now was already known 6+ months ago to everyone buying. Everyone buying now is more likely to be exit liquidity / bagholding if things go boom. There is real risk in the macro system right now if OpenAI doesn't deliver / start generating revenue. The entire AI industry mostly relies on them being able to extract real value from consumers. All the hardware companies / semis (nvidia, amd, mu, sndk, etc) are being funded by investor money. They're basically taking investor money and tossing it back and forth - with the customers being themselves. If the investors ever stop to ask "hey, when do I see a return on my $100b+" the entire thing implodes. Until that happens (it likely will, its a matter of when) - then we will be on a tear upwards until then

Impossible_Notice204

oh nice, didn't know Just looked at their other holdings though. 50% I like 50% I don't like Would rather own the underlyings that I like and not pay the etf fees to hold stuff I dont want. IE: I like CIFR, IREN, and HUT and have positions on all three I don't want WULF, MARA, MSTR, or CORZ

Jowem

IE people losing jobs lmfao

PaperHandsTheDip

Well - they are. Kinda. We can tweak systems to expand coverage, etc, which takes time. We are aware of several sources of alpha we just haven't built yet. IE: If I decided to hire a few engineers could hit those but I don't like the idea of that. Once we build something it's usually kinda linear returns (ie: captures entire alpha) until someone else realizes where it is / exists and you get competition. It's a never ending game of cat and mouse. Basically competitive 0 sum games. There are proofs (kinda) that we have that suggest markets cannot ever be efficient on the lowest level, which is interesting (they're discrete in nature -- not continuous as many assume) \> Kinda like the “medallion fund” which is a totally different thing but is money saturated and doesn’t need additional capital. - so I was wrong with that assumption on yours Based on my readings of their practices, not as different as you'd think. Although I suspect our systems are closer to the likes of jumps than rentecs. Being said their alphas are HF as well (even if they don't show / suggest it). \> Well good for you that they’re still room for exponential growth for a bit.  Linear, unfortunately. But as per above, we can still make good change. Our most successful year was like 7.5-7.6mm, which is pretty good imo for a team of 2. \> How many more years of growth do you think you can squeeze until there is extra capital that having in the algo, isn’t actually contributing to additional gains? As per above, HF returns are more or less linear. It's all about volume, coverage, etc. For reference \~50% of global trade volume is HFT and \~20% of HFT is nothing other than arbitrage. IE: \~10% of global trade volume is doing nothing other than what we do. It's fucking massive, so there's a lot of room to grow. We're incredibly small players in the space without access to insane amounts of money or resources. Kinda just made shit work with what we had access to.

MutaliskGluon

Good move. I traded in and out of BTU in 2022 and netted me a 102% return in 2022. I will always love BTU because of that, but if I was still a holder I would have been dumping in the low 20s lol. BTU at 30 today with these coal prices is complete fucking nonsense... IE, I should probably buy OTM calls for the inevitable trump taking a stake 30% jump bullshit

blorg

This is true YTD. It's not true over periods of 12 months or longer. In EUR, the S&P500, including dividends, is -1% since the inauguration. But it's up +35% since Jan 2024, +61% since Jan 2023. https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B5BMR087

liaard

I do not believe in dividend funds myself. Obvious play is vwra. But I cannot dismiss the charts. Tdiv one chart with no dividends included the other with. Third chart is vwra with the hand written symbol. All 5 years. I cannot attach images. So here are the links. Vwra [vwra](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BK5BQT80#chart) https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BK5BQT80#chart Tdiv https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=NL0011683594 Tick and untick dividends. Since the portfolio will be magnified with leverage if total returns are the same maybe I should choose the least aggressive in iv.