IE

FlipZip69

After many years of investing there are two things I have found that makes real money. One. Do not find outliers to justify your purchases. And two, if a stock is already talked about, you likely have missed the bus. Often with little upside but significant downside. IE. Tesla has been shit since 2022 but people been hold it since then thinking it will do a rise like it did in 2018 on. If you get lucky and pick a stock before it pops, then you can do well... only if you sell. For Nvidia to maintain this price, it has to do these massive profitable sales indefinitely. That is just to maintain this valuation.

traderbusto

IE you and me

ghostalker4742

Chiming in to say you're right. Been building DCs for +5yrs now, evap systems are cheaper and quicker to spin up, but the public eye has made this harder and harder to do, especially as we get into 200, 500, and 1000MW sites. AWS has had to cancel several planned sites because they were going to use evap cooling in areas with minimal water already (IE: Arizona). Closed loop systems are more expensive and take more time to setup... but they pay for themselves over time, and DCs aren't a fly-by-night operation, we get multi-decade long leases if we don't outright own the site ourselves. Imagine if a car consumed 1gal of water every day. You can get a gallon of water at any grocery store or gas station for about $1, and over a year that's $365. How many people do you know who blow through $365 of coolant a year?

SignificanceLate7002

Nutlick is wrecking the trade talks with Mexico just like he did with Canada by adding last minute demands. I guess the US just wants an exclusive relationship with mother Russia now. - [Yahoo](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/mexico-negotiations-stall-following-canada-221000958.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACHIKUe20PJG54hlRP-g-5VI_7IE8AFuFOk6NDRl7hTuSr_4mdIvw3-6l0e5m6oZGnw-cye5-jKEyf9mz9UxO8owOGbp-5gb-ZJMs-23zqhKvZPSVWa8iBj5CNuhipLEL32ZZff3DSMMBcwbh0oA3702jHAiEn-O9daOPUqtX5YV&guccounter=2)

OvertaxedOne

This is certainly true but it's also not where a company like OAI is going to get the revenue necessary. People sending in simple prompts for their home use are NEVER going to pay what it takes to have a frontier model be financially successful. In fact, the sub customers (personal) are really a loss leader for these companies, what they want is API business (IE, businesses), that's where they can charge the big bucks. Problem is, those same big companies that are the real target market for the frontier labs are the same companies with a large IT staff that can easily setup local inference. Or model routing and decision support tools that make use of open models where they can and only escalate to the frontier as necessary. The exact target market is the same market that can and will easily optimize out a lot of usage.

PaperHandsTheDip

yah, but the company isn't the market. The market is defined by who buys it and who doesn't. If lotta people buy it, it goes up. Elon is fantastic at advertising what they do to a large crowd / everyone sees & talks about his stuff. That means lotta people invest... even if its not a great idea. They invest based off vibes. IE: Compared to the two companies you mentioned - I don't know what those other companies are / what they do. There is a higher chance tesla gets my money from that alone.

NiceCreamSundaes

Yeah they do now, but Amazon made structural shifts to their business model, first in 2008 with AWS and the afterwards with the ad business. If they had carried on plugging away trying to make money at e-commerce they'd still be pretty poor. Saying that these AI companies will "do an Amazon" IE change their business model and product focus to better margin areas without bogging themselves down is putting a ton of faith in their leadership.

Legitimate_Cut_6254

This is capitalism coupled with deregulation and technological innovation. It is functioning the way the people with money have designed. Big tech has utilized its money to lobby/bribe and pay for the lower regulations, lower taxes and beneficial access to continue to deliver "more value" - IE charge more and continue to lock in customers. In a more balanced operating environment, anti monopoly cases should be driving these giants to split or at least allow competition to enter the market more easily and take away share. Higher taxes should be levied against the giants to fuel the other parts of the economy.

PaperHandsTheDip

It could, sure. But look at the fundamental value long term. TLT has a 5% dividend here & buying it locks in a 5.7% rate for the next 20 years. For anyone who likes safety in their portfolio or dividends - tlt is actually starting to look appealing. People seem to have already forgot that inflation spiked to 9% in 2022. We had a period of difficult to control inflation in somewhat recent history... It moves around all the time. It's always averaged \~3% over the long term tho & remains the FEDs target. IE: Over the last 10 and 100 years an average of \~3% inflation. It could dip in the short term, yes, but long term it's likely an alright bet.

Flat_Tire_Again

John Bogle did his thesis showing mutual funds could not beat an index. IE professional money managers. 1951. He wrote a book detailing his proof. He then started a company based on this idea. Vanguard…..you may have heard of it. Warren Buffett emphasized this fact in an annual meeting \~2007 and made a bet with any manager they couldn’t beat the S&P 500. 1 or 2 hedge fund managers took him and lost so bad they gave up. VOO is the likely the lowest-cost index fund replicating the S&P 500. Don’t believe me. (or anyone) Everything I stated is easily verified.

fire_alarmist

Its very hard to tell, something is breaking under the hood and they are all scrambling and colluding to try to cover it up. Its literally just a bet on do you think the dunces in charge will manage it again or are we too overleveraged this time? Hint: We already were overleveraged on March 31st this year, thats why they made a quiet SEC ruling allowing marketmakers, brokers and institutions to use mark to market stocks as US treasury and cash equivalents in stock lending/collateral capacities. IE: The biggest fucking moral hazard the world has ever seen in order to break the last vol spike, so they will have to pull some even bigger fuckery this time. The only thing I can see bigger is the bond market itself, there is some catalyst with the bond market coming imo.

StreetRat0524

https://preview.redd.it/7ea2x6kvl5vh1.png?width=1857&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eee4f053b8758e2854c00b0176d2cae7cb98028 Finally at my desk, but this is what my output gives me into a web site i host on my own internal server + a custom android app + telegram notices if I need to action a sell/buy immediately. Currently I've got no active buy recommendations but that changes daily. I just added some additional logic to it, IE looking at BMBL - the engine should have seen the spike in Calls but it missed it because it wasn't an active monitor, so one of the API endpoints I poll provides the data with the spike in Calls (Someone bought 2131 calls last Mon/Tues whereas it was totally flat for several weeks) It's a work in progress and every trade still requires some manual checking, but I am playing with agentic trading with Robinhood and Alpaca's engines, both are paper trading now and once the agent has run through a 45 day test it'll be given a pool of cash to start trading with.

PaperHandsTheDip

Here's something interesting about AI. Turns out you can use it to decompile things. It can take executables and produce source code that when compiled produces the same 1:1 bytecode. IE: The literal exact same executable. AI can then be used to go thru & modify that source code in whatever way you want, then compile it again. AI's enabled a way to modify proprietary software. Quite literally we are seeing this start to happen / pop up.

Welcome-To-NBA-Jam

Second of all IE6 lives on and you should respect it

Welcome-To-NBA-Jam

First of all IE6 is king

BLT_Trade_r

I don't know, but if that is your claim, then that's what you need to say, IE there is no way Mexican food is going to be profitable for breakfast rather than focusing on the shift and time of opening.

Not_Sure_68

Agree with most of your assumptions, save the part about tech outperforming after a correction. I believe we'll see underperformance from tech for years to come after it corrects. The reasons are simple...capex is expensive and the price of money will stay high. I'm currently deployed into income energy ETFs, income material ETFs, energy sector stocks, gold mining ETFs, silver junior mining ETFs, and platinum, gold, and silver mining stocks. Agree bond yields will be pushed down on the short end, but only to enable financial repression, IE yields below the rate of price inflation. Therefore bonds will be toxic. Energy(oil) prices are being actively suppressed and will continue to be so...at least till after the midterm elections. It has been the best performing sector this year and I expect that to continue. Since there's so much suppression of oil in the futures market, I've chosen an income based covered call energy ETF(XLEI) yielding 19% to address the sector. Additionally I've been stacking a small Canadian sour crude producer on weakness called Baytex(BTE). Sour crude is most readily turned into diesel fuel.

Salt_Contract342

Monkeypox and bird flu level. IE: zero

RockasaurusRex

I don't think the core of wsb has really changed much. Even the old DD was never particularly good or reliable and the people who made money or found stocks before a bull run did so largely out of chance (IE if a hundred people recommend random stocks at least a few will hit winners). The same patterns exist today. Plus you seem to be selectively remembering the winners; even pre-covid people here were mostly losing money in absolutely regarded plays.

Delicious_Put_5857

this is a real nice one, they did a good job starting in the daylight and by the end its dark https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d33C8IE7WnQ

Ars_Techne

Oh, they’ll release that oil! For their own use, to cover what they can’t get. IE, doing nothing for the market prices globally. Trump is a dipshit that doesn’t understand much and thinks he’s won on points that don’t matter. But, his base will eat it up and think he’s winning despite them on homelessness’s doorstep…

Crazerz

Yeah I'm on IE

JP782

Ive been looking for something to help bc Ive found that support/res - supply/demand at times get blown out, patterns just out right fail (ex, bull/bear flags, head n shoulders, Rumer's "John Wick Bar", and/or Box Strategy etc), heck even 5 or 15m ORB turn into nightmares. Many strats in toolbox, but all missing something. Then I started hearing abt GEX and thought ok this makes sense to see where big money is going. Fact is we need to trade like institutions not retail. So Ive been going down GEX rabbit hole where I watched Chad Trades vid about how he uses Call & Put Walls in conjunction with fixed volume profile [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weHZ8JUl0IE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weHZ8JUl0IE)

ace_alive

I'm based in Germany and invest in those : -PIMCO EM Local Bond IE00BH3X8336 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BH3X8336 -Vanguard EM Govt Bond IE00BZ163L38 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BZ163L38 - Fidelity Global HY Corp Bond IE0006OIQXE9 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE0006OIQXE9 - Invesco Global HY Corp Bond IE000ZWSN3F7 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000ZWSN3F7 - iShares Broad EUR HY Corp Bond IE00BG0J4B71 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BG0J4B71 PIMCO US HY Corp Bond IE00B7N3YW49 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B7N3YW49 Three of them pay me monthly, the other three overlap to a monthly payout as well.

Designer_Respect4285

For the same reason selling was dumb in the first place, and the same reason selling during covid was dumb. People get in a Reddit echo chamber of everything is terrible and ignore everything that is positive. There are always bad things going on in the world/market and emotional human beings, IE 99% of people, trade poorly.

80sCocktail

Google how they kept IE 6.0 so long and lost the browser wars.

nasduia

might even have lost some of some of the unwanted IE toolbars which would be a bonus

fox_luck

I've used 2 (EXUS) first - it is good but TER is 0.15% If I have to choose today I think 3 (WXUS) with TER 0.09% is better only due to the TER. But I'm using factor ETF from DFA with TER 0.20% now: Dimensional Global ex US Core Equity Market UCITS ETF USD Acc (DEGB) IE0002YHUWS3

PaperHandsTheDip

Correct - he would have made a net unrealized profit on his two positions. He would have gained $104k unrealized on his long and lost $100k, realized on his short. IE: He realizes a $100k loss. ...trying to recoup a $16k loss. Which was incurred trying to profit $300. The end result is $16k realized loss and a $100k realized loss.

Apple2o

That gay ass attitude is why you are still a virgin while the IE Chad swims in vagina

user4443337

By the way though, equal-weighted SPX funds aren’t great representations of the market. If you know Ben Felix he has a video about RSP, very trustworthy and research/evidence based YouTuber/podcaster. I highly recommend his videos. They usually underperform and I think there’s better ways to diversify or lean into small/mid caps. IE if you want to reduce technology, add some international or a small/mid cap value fund. If you want to overweight a specific sector for diversification, then add the sector fund. I just believe equal weighting 500 stocks puts too much weight into no-name and random mid cap companies. Cap weighted is a more accurate representation of the market and automatically uses momentum, which is a documented factor that has performed well throughout history. Equal weighting is the opposite of momentum trading.

sentrygentry


Adventurous-Shoe-903

To be fair, I initially used it to ensure I didn’t take an adversarial tone with you. I know I am a protective developer and didn’t want to turn it into a pissing match versus a productive conversation. IE I don’t trust how I can come off in that scenario lol. In this case, I can respond authentically.

PaperHandsTheDip

Unlikely. As the models continue to get more efficient per token (cost is down \~100x in the last \~2.5 years) - they sell more and more tokens for the same cost. We are actually seeing this happen. As they get more efficient, demand grows. IE: I can run qwen locally on my macbook that is on-par with the frontier models of \~2 years ago. Cost of a MBP - 4 figures. Cost to run the frontier model 2 years ago, minimum 6 figures of hardware. 100x cheaper for better intelligence today.

CantaloupeSea48

or when inflation jumps again ( IE last stimmies)

maxinstuff

Reading how this works - it sounds a lot like CFD’s which are illegal in the US, but still common enough in Europe and Asia-Pacific. IE: negative-sum over the counter derivative contracts where the broker is the counterparty. Makes sense when 99% of your customers lose money to find ways to take the other side of all of their trades.

Kracus

The Yen is losing value which hits hard on Japanese people. Part of the problem in the Yen carry trade which is people borrowing against the yen because interest on the loans were 0%. This causes the Yen to lose value when they're getting paid back, you can find more info on why elsewhere but it's a subject on its own. So, when the Yen starts losing value the Japanese government decides to raise interest rates on loans. Not by much but anything more than 0% is a lot because borrowers are then suddenly inclined to pay back their loans so as not to have to pay interest. To pay back those loans, they have to sell stuff like stocks, bonds etc... This creates shocks in those markets. The debt to GDP ratio in Japan is VERY high. So servicing the debt IE: making the minimum monthly payments which is just paying the interest suddenly becomes problematic because they owe more than they take in on taxes. It was less of a problem when interest was 0% but as they raise rates it's suddenly a big problem. However, Japan has a secret chest of cash they've been hoarding. US Treasuries and bonds. So, in order to stop the Yen from losing value, they raise interest even though they know it's going to make it difficult for them to service their debt and they offset the costs by selling those treasuries and bonds. The problem for the US is that it causes massive inflation in the US because they have to print the money to buy the treasuries and bonds from Japan because that's owed to them. Japan is the biggest bag holder of US Treasuries and Bonds. So at the end of July, to stop Japan from selling their bonds and treasuries they bought billions of dollars worth of Yen reducing the supply of Yen in Japan making the price of Yen go up so that they don't need to sell those bonds and treasuries. Effectively, the US is intervening in a foreign market to prevent a collapse of their currency because if they don't it means a collapse of the US currency. It doesn't take Einstein to figure out they can't do this indefinitely and the buck is going to come due real soon.

FlipZip69

It is more than that. You produce steel at about 10 percent profit or you can import the same steel and turn it into a airplane with about 40% gross profit. IE. You can import 2 billion in steel and upgrade it into something far more valuable. But you can now export 1 billion in software and airplanes to that same country. And while there is a 1 billion trade imbalance, that country made 200 million in profit but the US made 400 million in their higher value exports. And it is the profit that makes a country wealthy.

PaperHandsTheDip

Qwen works, yes, but the biggest issue is that qwen is like the frontier models of a few years ago with respect to how powerful it is. If you believe the future is completely localized models running on computers (it'll be a part of it) - then you'd be correct. I don't believe that's where we are heading tho. I suspect it's more along the lines of large clusters of agents working together to produce output. In this sense - I am already frequently using 5-10+ agents in parallel to complete my workload. If I had more compute - I'd use it. It's my literal bottleneck right now. I'm maxing out both claude & sol right now. The huggingface incident occurred due to over 1000 agents working together. The behavior of the swarm is still being studied, and it's revealing some very interesting things. IE: Agents (without being directed to) established a message board and started collaberating / performing R&D / sharing ideas there on how to execute the attack. We're going to see more and more clusters spun up, and larger ones. The more agents you have - the more complex tasks you can solve (and quicker) with less direction from us.

Jobless-Dev

I know yes, that's the problem though based on the past 4 months of data and ISM, jobless leaning soft very likely we'll be inline and if not inline a miss on jobs is more likely then an add both would fuck this up. This thing gets saved only if we add 108k ish which is 100% higher then the upper bound of expected print. IE it won't happen. I breakeven on 1$ and failed to cut my losses yesterday so I'll watch it evoporate live. I'd even post a GUH vid if I wasn't embarrassed

BlueSonjo

There are identical ETFs in European ISINs from the same providers, all German brokerages would have them. You can find the iShares (Blackrock) ones here for example: https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B4L5Y983#overview I linked the World one, but they have all types.

PaperHandsTheDip

And that goes back to what I was saying yesterday, which you seemed to have failed to understand. The cutting edge tools are targeted at engineers / people who are good in their respective fields. AI is an enabler, it allows you to take whatever context you have and amplify velocity drastically, without sacrificing quality. If you don't understand the problem, hire someone who does. You'd have no quality in the first place... not going to help you. But the person who does understand the problem / studied it, doesn't need a team of 5 to design it anymore. You only need 1-2 who understand the problem and can feed in the relevant context (for white collar work / engineering work / research work anyhow). I'm also not a civil engineer, but I can see how one would use it. In this case it'd be something like asking it to make blueprints for a new bridge, ask another agent to review it, give it the objective of "maximum load / failure point", ask it to autocad you things to validate risk surface (or whatever software suites they use to test things), etc. IE: I don't know a damn thing about cars, but AI is being used by car manufacturers / engineers to make them more aerodynamic & come up with more efficient designs, quicker. I'm not a car expert, or an engineer for one - but the guys who are are leveraging it for massive gains.

Ok_Top9254

Media companies spend billions yearly on software to edit and curate their content with. Engineering companies also spend billions on CAD software and equipment. But what about software companies? You can code and copypaste shit from stack overflow on a 300 year old thinkpad with IE5. Software was easily the biggest market sector with billions of dollars of R&D flowing and all of it untapped. Everything is open source, nobody gives a shit about a fancy ui wrapper for a compiler. But that all changes with LLMs. Everyone and their mother is shitting gold bricks just to pay for a Claude subscription and more credits. Employers would willingly get fucked in the ass with broken APIs just to get their hands on the newest shiny model, just so they can have an edge over three guys in a shed finding vulnerabilities in their app with Fable.

Money-Effective7189

There are some out there that just want your money. First I would make sure they are with a reputable company check to see thier total AUM and are they a fiduciary. Ask friends/collegues, parents who they use. You can find companies that take thier fee on a sliding scale based on the portfolio zize Amount Under Management "AUM". Generally the minimum amount is 200-300k and the fee is roughly 1%. If you come in with more money the fee may drop, IE 1,000,000.00 the fee could be .08%, 2.5 million could be .06% and 5 million+ could be .05%. Speak to the advisor, after they have your financial history, identify the value of your investments, ask them what thier financial plan is? Short term, mid term and long term. What they plan to buy, only ETF's, only stocks, a mix, private securities, bonds, Treasuries? How they will structure it, the funds they will use, allocation break down. Ask lots of queations, be inquisitive, and ask how many times per year will you meet to address poetfolio concerns, market changes, market loss etc. Your 401k and 457b should offer advisors and a very discounted price to a traditional financial advisor. If your starting out a fund under 100k-250k this is the way to go, possibly using thier robo advisor. Between 250k and 500k use your funds advisor they may charge 2-3%, but at 1 million dollars + consider a fiduciary. I had a number of accounts, a 401k, 403a, 457b, taxable brokerage account, traditional IRA and ROTH IRA. I personally managed mine through the bulk of my working life, but a few years before retiring got a fidu iary. He is very knowledgable and proactive in managing my various accounts. My portfolio breakdown is below. Domestic equity. 52.20% International. 26.40% Fixed income. 17.49% Emerging markets. 3.82% Real assets. 3.05% Cash. .46% Alternative investments .33% I still evaluate fees paid to the financial company versus the growth in the account during that quarter. We meet quartely and start the year with a general plan and each quarter tweek the plan as needed based upon world and US events, the market, inflation, taxes etc. You have to figure out thier worth and if you think you can do better in the market. If your account made 10-15% what would you be willing to pay. 500k portfolio, making 12% =60,000. Would you pay .08% or 4,000? Hopefully this gives you a little insight to evaluate the value of a good financial professional and how they can grow your wealth.

pegasusCK

I'm 90% sure it trends up Monday and Tuesday, maybe not moon but still up and then dumps hard. IE your scenario#2

PaperHandsTheDip

Tools have only been usable since \~feb this year, and only strong from the last few months (fable & sol). Given that it takes a few weeks to figure out a strong flow - there has literally only been a \~2 month window for the average person to have been able to use & understand the tooling in the current environment. I don't believe that's "the vast majority of the world disagrees". I think it's the tooling is still fairly new, and the cutting edge ones are all aimed at experienced developers. You need to have a deep understanding of software to understand how to leverage them properly... It's incredibly difficult to get multiple agents to work together properly. You even said it yourself. They produce slop, and a lot of it unless directed properly. I even experience it. As you scale up the number of agents you use, you have to be incredibly careful when modelling the error surface. That's the hardest part of the problem these days imo & is where I spend most of my time. Basically - how do you prove something worked? TDD with 100% test coverage, everywhere is the first step. I am using them to develop low latency HFT trading systems - basically latency arb. They're often considered one of the most difficult areas of software & finance. If it was easy to do - anyone would do it and print money. They're literally money printers. IE: This one is decayed, built by hand (\~8-9 months iirc): [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) I still build them. My most recent live one was done in \~8-9 weeks, and my next iteration is on track to be done in less than 6. It's all enabled via AI's... I'm getting better at using them and velocity is increasing. So I do see first hand how it's useful. Don't have to believe it if you don't want to. I'm seeing that type of stuff everywhere in my circles fwiw

PaperHandsTheDip

That's one way to use it, a better way to use it is give it to someone who has knowledge of a system / topic and they can leverage it. IE: Previously when designing a feature I'd consider things like use datastructure X, Y or Z in unionson with algorithm A, B, or C. I'd weight things, go back and forth before deciding what approach to take - then spend all day implementing the feature. That was pre ai. Now tho - I have the same knowledge - I just ping AI and tell it the objective, feed in the relative datastructure we are considering (X, Y, Z) and the approaches to solve it (A, B, C). I'll ask it to weight them / pros / cons of each. Then after deciding on what to use, tell it to implement it. Time to implement the same feature dropped from all day to < 1 hour for someone with experience / background knowledge. Someone without it - produces slop. That's how it's enabling people who are experienced to excel & what I'm seeing everywhere. Yah there's a lot of people using it for slop, but it's gotten incredibly good over the last few months, even hold outs are starting to move over.

pegasusCK

Bro yes you do. Hewlett Packard Enterprise. HP Enterprise. IE HPE Like the laptops but they've mostly pivoted to AI infrastructure.

PaperHandsTheDip

Smart man. I quit for 6 months a few years back and started hitting the gym. Got in the best shape of my life, ran my first marathon. Actually had strangers give me attention, shit was weird. Then... I injured myself due to overactivity and went back to drinking. Now hovering \~210lbs and hella out of shape. Maybe I should quit again & start going to the gym again O.o. Hella overweight and doing far too much alcohol and drugs. IE: I'm going to a music festival next week with a group of friends and probably gonna drop some acid.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> You expect past performance to be indicative of futur performance But... I don't lol. I'm looking at the growth rate, which is forward looking. It's actually the opposite, you're looking backwards. I pointed out that it's growing at insane rates, gave a reason why I think it's doing so (IE: anecdotal evidence), suggested that it still has a large room to grow, and that the investments actually make sense at these levels (ie: anthropic is reaching profitability). Re: the selling shovels (nvda) - Anthropic isn't the one buying GPU's by the millions. It's the hyperscalers (ie: MSFT & AMZN). Of which... both reported reaching profitability on their DC capex. Anthropic doesn't even buy GPU's... it rents them from the hyperscalers and sells a service. They also reached profitability. That means the shovel sellers are profitable, the shovel buyers are profitable, and the people using the shovels are... also profitable. The entire thing is looking profitable to me with massive room to grow. Yes - the trade was funded via trillions of dollars worth of debt (ie: hyperscalers) - but its looking sustainable based on everyones recent ER's. It's worth significantly more than $500b lol, there is already well over $100b being spent on consuming AI services.

PaperHandsTheDip

The problem with the AI trade is it's mostly been speculative. AI has only been useful since \~feb this year, and it takes a few weeks to figure out how to effectively leverage it. In that sense - it's only really had a "viable" product for a couple months still. I've been following it since \~2023-2024 toying with the models, but never committed due to things like hallucinations. Once 4.8 came out tho - I started heavily integrating it into my workflow. Sol & Fable were another major step up - it's actually good now. I'm still learning new ways to use it. At the start I was doing all the design work / engineering by hand and getting agents to implement them for me. I'd review the implementation plans, the approach, etc. Sometimes finding mistakes but overall very high quality. The first major breakthru for me was using them for adversarial analysis / review. IE: I'd use an agent to audit the work of another. Similar to people - AI's make mistakes but I noticed they were making fewer errors than people on average. After review tho, they were solid. So... why not try to get an agent to review another agents work? It worked surprisingly well. Like so well - that I more or less stopped reviewing the code myself. I got things setup so that when I request a feature / something - it automatically goes thru the standard review / security flow / pipeline - but every step is managed by agents. Everything was still my design tho, they were just implementing it. The next major breakthru for me - I started using them for designing the systems as well. If I could get them to implement my designs (and they were already doing a better job than most software engineers) - why not use that same ability to design systems as well? So - I started to point them towards designing systems too, using a very similar flow. It worked... incredibly well. Using a similar flow - create design, review it, audit it, run it through all the tests, etc, I managed to get very strong designs coming out of these systems. Unioned design + implementation and I was able to output strong fault tolerant, tested & reviewed systems... all autonomously. The problem is it was slow. My most recent breakthru has been in figuring out how to leverage the agents to get them to parallelize the workflow. The flow I described above is mostly serial. However, it turns out, agents are really good at optimizing whatever function you throw at them. I gave the highest level agent the additional task of "maximize velocity by splitting workloads into tasks that can be implemented independently". Basically constructing a dependency graph. Tasks now frequently have 4-10+ agents working on them in parallel, reviewing each others work, designing systems, auditing things, etc. It's reduced the time to deliver working systems / complete projects from 6-12 months to only a couple weeks. Over 90% of software engineers now report using AI tooling, I'm not the only one. It's starting to make its way into other fields as others realize just how good it's gotten. Anthropic is increasing its ARR by over $500 million A DAY. That's insane - it's the fastest growing company in history. The reason is that it's good now - but it's only really been "good" for a few months.

hseeman_sf

The pattern in each of those wasn't really timing, it was a distribution wedge. Google didn't beat Yahoo by being patient, it beat Yahoo because search got cheaper and better while Yahoo optimized for portal traffic. Chrome didn't beat IE by waiting either, Google already owned the search audience and used that as leverage to push a better browser for free. The AI incumbents right now already sit closer to the Chrome position than the Netscape one: Google can push Gemini into every Android phone and search results page, Microsoft can push Copilot through every Windows and Office install. The one actually at risk of getting Yahoo'd is whichever leader is relying on model quality alone without owning a distribution surface to force adoption.

Boglehead0

You hold just go for Vanguard FTSE Global All-Cap UCITS ETF - (USD) Accumulating (IE000VAHT5T0) $VALL /VALU / VGLA (Ongoing Charges Figure† 0.07%)

CantaloupeSea48

We live in the safest era for food consumption. Once a while a slip up occurs. Most of the bad comes from areas with poor controls over animal/human waste: IE mexico and Central/South America. Be glad you live here

PaperHandsTheDip

Lol, that's not how flow works. Flow is aggressive and moves markets. Passive players (ie: market makers) are on the other side of the trade, and when they get a fill - they back off. IE: I'm willing to buy for $100 and sell for $102. I want to profit the spread, and don't want to get runover. So if you sell, I buy for $99. I got 1 inventory, so I lower my next buy. My bid/ask spread drops to $99/101 from $100/102. Price dropped because of aggressive flow.

peterhugs

which websites do you use to look at charts in real time (IE Futures?)

PaperHandsTheDip

I use AI to build low latency arbitrage systems, which make money. I use it to identify inefficiencies / find alphas (just various arbs). So in a way, yes, the models do make me money, they have automated an incredibly large part of my work. Same models everyone else has access to tho, just leveraging them correctly takes a bit of learning. IE: IMO The absolute best thing you can do is learn how to use subagents & get them to do adversarial analysis. Create an agent that manages a set of other agents and ask them to adversarially work together on the problem. Basically one creates a solution and the other reviews it / picks it apart. They're both incredibly good at their respective tasks, but it mostly removes your need to do the "pick it apart" part.

PaperHandsTheDip

thats the game. In and out quick based off nothing other than vibes. Vibes being - are others maybe gonna be in the near future? Just identify random shit that could cause that to happen. For soxl - it was citadel buying SA. If citadel came it and swiped 100% of a mutli billion dollar funds port, it might go up! People see that and buy. Thems vbes, buy, hope other buy and if they do fuck off. Nothing else matters. If they don't buy, cut losses and fuck off. IE: Take a loss.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm sorry you're having trouble with it. It's not the agents - you don't need to constantly probe it. Like, you can... but that's not a great way to use them imo. Easiest way to resolve "conflicting information" you're experiencing is to get a set of agents to perform an adversarial analysis on the research that is produced. It'll resolve the conflicts and get you the answer you probably want. Or at least a much more "correct" answer. I also heavily use claude and codex, I'm on the max 20 plans and max them out. If they had max 50, I'd use it... I am burning thru my entire allocations in \~24-48hrs. Once you figure out how to use them effectively it's insane at how productive they become and how good they are. Think of it like this: "but I still gotta go and figure out what to use". <- Why? What did they do wrong? Can the solution be fixed / addressed / automated? The answer is almost always "yes". IE: A better approach may be to feed the objective into a different agent and get it to perform an adversarial analysis on the output of the first agent. Then the output that you see becomes what you've asked an agent to do / with another one trying to review / validate everything. Think of what you do... just ask another agent to do that. Make it persistent / permanent by getting it to document the process. Now everytime you ask for a change, it goes thru that flow (ie: its reviewed before you see anything!). I often use sets of 4-5 agents for this, in sequence and parallel where applicable. I have mine setup to do this autonomically now. They review each other, validate the information, cross reference it, do reviews, etc. The quality and correctness of output went up 100 fold, and the types of issues you are experiencing have more or less disappeared in my current projects.

itchygentleman

IE: You cant have Chinese EV's. You can only have shitty tesla's.

PaperHandsTheDip

Yields going up means we're gonna see inflation. Sure it's "guaranteed returns" - but the real outcome is "guaranteed returns on cash, which ends up loses value faster than the bonds return". IE: You fall behind, not get ahead.

PaperHandsTheDip

Fair enough. Intrinsic value - yes. Renting does the same thing. Over the long term housing will lose out vs equities, always does. IE: Over 100 years, $100 invested is worth over $2m today. Housing... did not do that.

TheDeHymenizer

1. its $4 not $1 2. you misunderstand what hes asking. Why would they need to "dilute to stay afloat" IE no go bankrupt per OP's warning when they have no debt and are making profits.

PaperHandsTheDip

Higher rates means we are likely to see inflation - meaning people don't bonds since cash is losing value. Bonds go down in response to this. Higher yields means lower ETF price - yields and bond price (ie: TLT) are inversely correlated. Nobody wants to hold bonds if we see inflation. IE: If bonds return 5% but we see 8% inflation you're actually just losing 3% in real value per annum.

Sufficient-Pause9765

3-10% is a big range. Its pretty straightforward to get 79sh a year on average, but over 10 years some will be much more (last few years) and others may be negative. A blended average of 7% is totally normal. Lombard loans, these are a bit complex. A lombard is the Swiss equivalent of a securities backed loan. IE its a loan secured by the assets in the swiss brokerage. Because the swiss bank keeps interest rates near 0, one can get very low rates for them. I have a lombard at 1.3%. So, you can borrow in switzerland at 1.3% and put the money into us assets like treasuries or fixed income that pay more like 4%-5%. If its a tax free muni, you are make a nice spread of 3%-4%. Its called a carry trade. HOWEVER, they come with real risk. That swiss lombard loan is demoninated in swiss francs. You owe them swiss francs each month. However your money is in the US in USD. So you now have fx risk. If the USD depreciates heavily against CHF, the real cost of that lombard loan goes up, because you are making money in USD and then buying francs to pay the loan. Additionally, if the assets that secure the Lombard go down in value, you could be margin called and forced to liquidate. So yes, you can do a carry trade and arbitrage rates, but you then have both margin and FX risk.

PaperHandsTheDip

It was a super popular video when I was in school like 2 decades ago, she got popular because it was basically a bunch of hot korean girls just bouncing around. Was novel at the time, not relevant anymore, but I always remembered it lol. Lil bubble is hilarious - he makes parodies of crypto market. I actually use inverse him as a sentiment signal. When he drops videos you inverse them, it's got over a 60% correctness rate. Vibes all day lol. IE: This one is funny too: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K\_0\_SiY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvZ7K_0_SiY) . Go long... that was when BTC dropped from \~17k to \~4k. It kept climbing towards 10k and dumped everytime. He dropped that video and it fucking pumped to \~50k+

Gulliveig

My thoughts exactly, increasing the grid capacity might be painfully slow. I mean, production-wise renewabels are the quickest to build, and they had a pretty streak recently, in spite of actively being fighted by the administration. A year ago I got me some RENW (IE00BK5BCH80) @ $10 (rebalanced some @ $18). But the grid. Just recently got me some GRID ETF, but this bet might be a pretty slow one.

Raiddinn1

Your claims don't make logical sense. Sounds like you are on some hopium. According to you, any arbitrage opportunity exists, it would go away immediately. If selling options is free money, then we can expect people to pile in until it's not free money anymore. This has nothing to do with the EV of buying and holding shares. Institutions can borrow at the risk free rate and collect would collect all free money higher than the risk free rate. Either the market is efficient or it isn't. Furthermore, getting 100% premium on shorts doesn't mean free money. The expected gains are equal to the expected loss. If not, there is an arbitrage opportunity that's already been exploited by people moving faster than you. This is all before market makers take a slice out of the pie, IE all options have slightly negative EVs.

PaperHandsTheDip

LOL - surprisingly accurate. But league and shitposting. I design low latency HFT systems, have been doing it on and off for \~9 years. I have my own company and I partner with various firms to get access to the markets / access to the funding I need to operate them. IE: this is a decayed low latency HFT system I built. [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) \~90% of software engineers now report using AI, I personally don't know a single person who doesn't use it. Productivity gains being seen in my circles are \~4-5x increases in velocity to deliver projects. In the space I operate in, it's helped insanely with identifying alphas too. In non-software jobs, my peers who are using it are reporting \~200% increase in velocity. It makes some mistakes, but it makes fewer than I was making by hand.

PaperHandsTheDip

They are incredibly good at agentic tasks, how are you using them? The issue most people encounter is the models lack the proper context and make assumptions about the problem. You get insane context decay / they spin & get stuck on trivial things. You need to steer them a little bit and make them document everything / make it permanent. Not a "memory", but rather directly documented. Then any other agent that gets spun up now has that context too. You also need to use multiple agents adversarially against each other. IE: Spin up multiple subagents and let one model / solve the problem and let the other adversarially poke holes in it. You give them two different conflicting objective functions. The emergent behavior of that system is a strong output assuming both agents are strong. Think of how agents have gotten incredibly good at finding security exploits... they're already better than humans at it. So use that ability in your flow. I frequently deal with 15-20 subagents per task as they work very well when used like this. In isolation, yah, they kinda suck. But so too does a brand new guy coming in with no context at all about the project we've been working on. You need to feed them in the context (have everything documented) then also review their design (adversarially model it), code review it, etc.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm already using them to make money, as are many of my friends. The difference is you make it self directing rather than telling it explicitly how to do it. IE: Let it figure that part out for itself. If it sucks at it, it'll get culled off. Kinda like unsupervised ML, but another layer of abstraction ontop of it.

PaperHandsTheDip

Lol. Very hand waved buy I built computer programs that look for pricing inefficiencies in the same (or highly correlated) assets in the crypto market and deployed them on computers in the same datacenter as exchanges. If the pricing differences ever got large enough (more than fees), it was possible to buy in one place, sell in the other and immediately make a profit. Think BTC - it trades on binance & also trades on OKX. Turns out it's very possible to do, and accounts for a very large part of global trade volume. It's just called arbitrage, risk free profits. I stopped doing it in crypto markets many years ago, but still managed to extract north of $10m from it in a few years. Arbitrage: [https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2](https://imgur.com/a/LuLzme2) \- IE: Open these two tabs - prices will be different. [https://www.okx.com/trade-swap/btc-usdt-swap](https://www.okx.com/trade-swap/btc-usdt-swap) [https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BTCUSDT](https://www.binance.com/en/futures/BTCUSDT) \- Started using reddit as during my time building HF systems I realized flow is the only thing that actually moves a market (it's also what causes arbitrages to appear). Literally nothing else matters. WSBs is one of the worlds largest retail investing forum and I'm a gambler at heart (poker player) - so I figured why not try it on markets? Works alright all things considered.

PaperHandsTheDip

Money printing causes inflation & currency to faceplant in value. IE: If you doubled the amount of currency in existence without changing the output of any country, we would roughly expect everything to double in price... including the price of equities. It's not "past performance does not guarantee future results" it's literally - they can and will print money. They introduced laws that allow them to, and called it Quantative Easing. Look at what QE does. It first introduced in 2008 and we've only had two crisis's since - 2008 & covid... it wasn't a thing before. We have a plethora of evidence of what happens when governments print money tho (see germany post WW2 as an example). It reduces down to the above - everything goes up in value relative to that currency. Interesting thing about our markets are they are priced in... that exact currency. US markets are priced in USD. If USD faceplants in value due to inflation / being printed, you'd expect markets to go up relative to how much USD goes down - assuming economic output remains constant. Since QE was introduced the fed has made it very clear it will be utilized during any crisis. In that sense - yah - our economic output may actually go down. But the value (quoted in USD) is going to go up, since markets go up to compensate for the faceplanting value of USD. \> When money printing fail to solve the problem, it would fail spectacular. Yah, it doesn't work very well. But when markets are quoted in USD, your retirement is quoted in USD - why in the world would you EVER want to hold USD when they print it like no other? They've already shown they don't care about the dollar, making sure number go up is more important. You're betting against that saying market is going to crash...

PaperHandsTheDip

It's a game of poker. The winning move is trying to get you to do the same move as me, after me. IE: **Winning hand (1): I buy, you buy, I sell.** <- you're my exit liquidity. You pumped the price so I could exit and fuck off. **Winning hand (2): I sell, you sell, I buy.** <- I sold and was able to buy at a cheaper entrance due to your sell. You get left behind as price runs away from you. **Losing hand (1): I buy, you sell, I sell.** <- I was your exit liquidity, I pumped the price for you and am holding at a loss. If I sell now, I lose money. **Losing hand (2): I sell, you buy, I buy.** <- I sold, price pumped. If I rebuy now, price is higher than what I sold for.

PaperHandsTheDip

Not as hard as you think. I view leaps as access to an insanely high leverage with the benefit that it can't go to $0. I often use them to get an effective 3-5x leverage without liquidation risk (IE: I did it with TTD earlier). I use vibes to define direction - I don't trade them with conviction. If vibes change it means the bet was wrong and cut losses. If it was shares - I'd have done the exact same thing. The risk vs reward curve of them is super appealing for vibe trading tho, as the alphas tend to decay quickly. If you're right you get very nice / quick gains, if you're wrong the losses tend to be fairly buffered due to how options are priced. On NKE there - those leaps were effectively \~5:1 leverage. I'd likely have literally been liquidated if I used that amount of raw leverage vs leaps in an isolated position.

PaperHandsTheDip

Learn to cut losses lol. I do it all the time. Imagine if I bagheld my NKE leaps... I'd be down 750k instead of 180k. Entire trading thesis should be driven by vibes - where vibes are defined by what OTHER PEOPLE are saying, not you. If vibes turn sour, fuck off, even if you're underwater. IE: NKE YOLO (ended up with 777 contracts): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pnjq4d/nke\_took\_profit\_67\_csps\_rolled\_profits\_into\_leaps/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pnjq4d/nke_took_profit_67_csps_rolled_profits_into_leaps/) NKE UPDATE (had a 60% drawdown in less than a week): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pzvl2a/nke\_current\_position\_still\_holding\_just\_an\_update/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1pzvl2a/nke_current_position_still_holding_just_an_update/) NKE LOSS (managed to cut for \~20% loss): [https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1q5q1a6/nke\_realized\_the\_loss/](https://www.reddit.com/r/PaperHandsInsights/comments/1q5q1a6/nke_realized_the_loss/)

PaperHandsTheDip

I made \~180k going long the previous week. It had every sign it was going to fall over. Too many bots & I've played these memes before. IE: Gains from calls. Net pnl was about +200k in \~10days on HTZ between calls, shares & puts. Hit more or less everyone. https://preview.redd.it/s8lbhvfrgljh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=a59581ed70fd63b426974fa15901f0f6772ec9c5

dinnerthief

Seeing how much AI has been adopted in my workplace alone i dont see the demand dropping soon. Now there might be other disruptions like economic instability caused by jobs disappearing that might cause the demand to drop, IE why do companies need AI if no one can buy what they produce anyways.

Sufficient-Pause9765

$800k would support $32k/yr in withdrawals. Average social security payment is $24k/year, those getting more now put more in now, and same would be possible with these accounts. IE if you work you can add more each year tax free. So the average payout of this would be more then the current average, while still allowing those who earn more to put/get more in/out.

darkspherei

wsb is a psyop overrun by bots (IE $HTZ)

Monster_Dumps_2026

Occupy wallstreet is the reason why we have SOOOO many stupid social issues being pushed by the media to keep us divided. They freaked out when we did occupy wallstreet. Both sides were united. And how did they break it up? Instead of being focused on just the single cause. They started shoe horning other causes that caused divisiveness. IE abortion, LGBTQ+, Racism etc. We'll NEVER have another occupy movement. Want to know why? Just go on reddit and see how these people speak about republican voters. People are okay completely dissengaging with family members with different viewpoints. Hell look at threads, bluesky and rumble. They have successfully gotten us to isolate ourselves and demonize our peers. So we'll never come back together to go after the 1% ruling class. Its over. Forever. The plan was executed successfully

PaperHandsTheDip

As per my comment - equities get bailed out these days. It'll happen again in another major crash / correction, which is a different market function than existed pre 2008. The gov would literally rather cause inflation than see peoples retirements go down and they have shown thats exactly what they do when a crisis hits. They did it in 2008, they did it during covid, they'll do it if the "AI bubble" bursts. Bondholders are gonna be left holding the bag if things go south, not equities. Gov has made that very clear. As for the 4% withdrawal rate & bond ratio - those are very old rules. Adjust your strategies to the current market paradigm. High yield dividends tend to pay a 4%+ rate and grow over time, even during the down cycles. They often jump to 5-6% during down cycles... you don't have to sell anything and it'll continue to go up. Look at canadian banks for example - they are a heavy portion of my portfolio and follow that exact pattern. RBC has only dropped their dividend once (in the 90s) and it went up next quarter, and every other major bank has never cut it... once. In the same time the equities have more or less followed the market (they've actually quite outperformed it). IE: [https://www.reddit.com/r/dividendscanada/comments/zxj843/historic\_dividend\_payments\_by\_canadian\_banks\_an/](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividendscanada/comments/zxj843/historic_dividend_payments_by_canadian_banks_an/) 4% rule is significantly more effective "invest it all in dividend stocks and live off the 4%+ div they pay" in low risk dividend stocks. I'd argue they are actually \*safer\* than bonds as the value of cash is imaginary and easily manipulated, whereas real assets have some value that can be mapped to.

PaperHandsTheDip

Happens. Generally when the numbers get larger people take less risk tho - as it's not nearly as easy to recover losses. IE: With a few thousand being risked - even if you went completely tits up, with a few months of work you'd have recovered 100%. With $500k+, that's an entire lifetime of working + saving. If lost you'll never be able to recover that, so people take less risk.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> So my question is, if you are able to survive a few years without depleting your retirement savings, isn't it better to stay with a majority equities?  Yes. Lotta people can't stomach the drawdowns tho. I'm personally 100% equities and won't consider bonds for reasons similar to what you mentioned. They drastically underperform. If you can weather a few years of drawdowns without panic you'll be further ahead in 100% equities. With $2m, you can "safely" withdraw \~80-100k / annum without worries, with 100% equity portfolio. On average over the long term market grows \~10.5% / annum, giving a 100% equities portfolio an expected return of almost $200k / annum. It nets \~7% after inflation. Yah you might have a few years of drawdowns, but you'd be super far ahead assuming the risk. IE: Over the last 5 years you'd be up 78%, or $1.56m on the $2m portfolio. Withdrawing $100k / annum would leave you with over $3m still. The point of bonds in a portfolio / that advice is for people who cannot assume those risks. $2m is sufficiently large enough you can assume them.

Shajirr

Is SPCX classified as an IT company? Basically I want to avoid this crap, so would like to know if it would be included in ETFs like [QDVE](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B3WJKG14)

Perfect_Ganache_1959

For the love of god, no austerity. Go nationalise the private prisons and a bunch of the private health insurance industry; and you'll get the same service you do now (not super great) at 100-1000x less cost. They'll squeal like stuck pigs about it and try to smash you in the media. Send in investigators and prosecute over and over all of the atrocities (deaths in ice detention, denying coverage to cancer patients); few will listen to the smear campaigns. Use international tax treaties and five eyes intelligence cooperation to investigate every dodgy part of the Murdoch empire; and have your partner countries start seizing assets. IE https://michaelwest.com.au/newscorps-foxtel-welfare-tax/ Intrusively investigate social media companies that take ad revenue from foreign influence groups. Pretty soon you have muzzled the far right propaganda engine, saved cut expenses, reduced fraud or unethical billing. You might think this can't work, but we've got a private army rolling round harrassing people over the color of their skin massively funded by Congress; with barely a peep of protest from all of the supposed checks and balances.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm more interested in the growth potential moving forward - robotics, ie. Use AI for robotics control systems, and now you have fully autonomous robots. Amazon is working on this for their warehouses, ie. It's not just automating ideas / spreadsheets / etc. The interesting thing to look at is how it's effected software. Over 90% of software engineers now report using AI tooling and it's been the sector that's been impacted the largest, by quite a significant margin. Yet there are still only \~50m paying customers for ChatGPT. As AI makes its way into more and more sectors we are going to see insane changes to how work is performed. I can't predict how - but it's already starting to occur. Keep in mind performance of these models is **still** doubling every \~6-8 months, and costs to run them keep coming down. IE: Qwen 3.8 is stronger than the frontier models of \~2-2.5 years ago and I can run it on my laptop. Those gains are not going to slow down, they're showing signs of accelerating if anything. That's what has me fascinated with it - future outlook / real world impacts. The transition from strictly digital to real world via robotics is already in motion - and it's going to have the same impact AI has on software, in other industries.

MarthaJulietta

Not at all. You said what needs to be judged is if the earnings report will be better than what the market thinks. I am talking about bigger picture IE Uber is dead to AVs, or Adobe is dead to AI replacements or PYPL is losing to Stripe/Block. These narratives have very little to do with whether there is a beat or a miss on EPS this quarter.

Raveen396

>Fair points, but generally if your 401k has terrible fund choices, keeping it in the 401k keeps you locked into those limited choices. Rolling into the IRA gives you control. This can be dramatic if your 401k is served by someone like AXA/Equitable which have funds with ER's well over a percent. That's fair but not always true. Again, I'm just pointing out that you don't always want to roll it, especially if you're at a company with excellent 401k options. >Regarding the taxes, you're right. You can pay the taxes. But I personally am not a fan of paying unnecessary sums of money if I can avoid it. Especially when my traditional IRA is several hundred thousands of dollars to pay taxes on. You don't pay taxes on "several hundred thousands of dollars". You pay taxes only on the converted amount ($7,500 in 2026), and then only the proportion of traditional/roth in your rollover IRA (IE, if you have a 50/50 split you'd pay income taxes on $3,750). You'd pay taxes on that money eventually, you're just paying the tax to do the conversion *now* and have tax-free withdrawal later rather than paying taxes on withdrawal. Again, I want to say that I think you're directionally correct but there's so much confusion on retirement account taxation that it's important to be precise here.

Enlighten_YourMind

I’m curious, could you tell us some economic data that you might find to be genuinely bearish? IE would reliably result in the price of the major U.S. equities indices seeing sustained downward price action?

PaperHandsTheDip

Probably will be. Turns out a few big guys are involved, at least a bit. IE: Jane owns at least 5% of htz it seems.

burnaftergreeting

It means roughly 80% of shares are shorted. IE borrowed and sold short betting the stock will go down. Those bets have to be covered in the next 4 days. Hard to cover 80% float from 20% available shares. Have to buy. If no one sells, price goes up. Supply v demand.

Legitimate_Cut_6254

When you short a stock you sell "borrowed shares" at an assumably high price with the assumption that later you can buy back those shares at a low price. IE: People who short sold SPCX at 140 eventually have to buy them, now at the 110 mark making 30$ a share. I think the person above was correct, because both the short sellers and the institutions taking profit usually have an incredibly large pool of shares. Both sides will usually perform slow draw downs to limit price spiking (up in the case of the short sellers buying back their shares) and down in the case of sellers selling their shares.

KennytheDoggy

Not what it shows here? [https://www.franklintempleton.lu/our-funds/price-and-performance-etfs/products/27854/SINGLCLASS/franklin-ftse-korea-ucits-etf/IE00BHZRR030#portfolio](https://www.franklintempleton.lu/our-funds/price-and-performance-etfs/products/27854/SINGLCLASS/franklin-ftse-korea-ucits-etf/IE00BHZRR030#portfolio)

PaperHandsTheDip

Not very well when you try to use them to adversarially model each other / find faults in each others logic. IE: I can instruct an agent to create a design doc / spec - and get another to try to find holes / faults in it. In that sense I'm using the frontier intelligence to model the risk surfaces. The cheaper models kinda suck at that. They're incredibly good at doing what they're told to do... but they suck at reasoning. This is where the frontier models really excel and where I'm finding incredible value. I'm designing low latency trading systems and the biggest problem with HFT / trading is modelling the risk surface / finding ways your models / alphas can break. The frontier models are significantly better at this task. You WANT frontier / the highest intelligent agents for that type of work. I get clusters of agents and make them work together - with an agent creating design docs, another review + audit it, another set implement + code review, then another set adversarially analyze it (try to find any faults / vulneratbilities, etc). Then I get them to all work together to produce a feature... it works insanely well. I can let them self direct for 2-4+ hours with minimal steering. I can't do that with the weaker models.

Perfect_Ganache_1959

I think a lot of manufacturing doesn't care if it's (ambient) 25C or 40C - so long as it's predictable. You can make a frame with calculated expansion rates, fixture holes designed for tolerance, etc. Superconductors, data centres, nanometer scale lithography, ok sure, that's gonna care. The workers with heat exhaustion or cutting corners; absolutely a negative (example: high rise construction with dubious concrete because it was pouring rain, but we have a deadline!) Woodworkers have long known about humidity and acclimatised their materials before use. Food processing/agriculture though - different kettle of fish! IE we have fewer holes in Swiss cheese due to hygiene improvements - less dust = less microbial growth = less gas pockets. No vaccines because of insufficient horseshoe crabs to ensure quality? Ruh roh. Yet another bird flu? No thanks. So "will not work" is maybe too simple - parts don't care, the meat human and high precision bits do

PaperHandsTheDip

The important thing to consider with these are (1) are they fundamentally solid / still growing and (2) what are the risks involved (price action, disjointed from fundamentals). \- (1) looks solid. Capex going up, growing, insane margins, looks sustainable, etc. (2) is an interesting one. When everyone sees (1) you get a bunch of guys going long on leverage and you introduce a hidden risk in the markets. A leverage unwind. If the price falls at all - the leveraged guys sell to lock in profit, driving the price down further. It cascades and causes even more guys to do the same. It's a viscious cycle and leads to rapid price collapses. Funds intetionally short the fuck out of overleveraged funds / assets to cause bear raids / price collapses (and make insane profits). IE: Citadel made over $10b via liquidating leo's fund. ...that's what we saw last month. A leverage unwind. After a leverage unwind - it tends to be an absolutely fantastic time to go long if (1) still holds true - as the risk of (2) is drastically reduced. You often actually get the opposite effect - a lot of guys start going long / rotating back in / leveraging up again. You need to be very careful / observe leverage in the system as a whole tho - as if it rapidly goes up you can get a vicious drop and deleveraging event again.

PaperHandsTheDip

We got you. In practice - I've started using / integrating AI tools into my workflow and am paying quite a bit for them. I don't know much about palantir in particular. I'm currently paying \~$600 / month primarily for claude & codex & I can't get enough. I'm maxing out my subscriptions, I want more. If they offered better plans for $1000 / month, I'd jump on them due to how good they've become. I'm aware my lawyer and accountant have also started to integrate AI into their workflow. As intelligence gets more efficient & stronger, I suspect we will see jevons paradox occur with AI. Basically - as it gets better, cheaper & capable of doing more, demand will actually grow quicker than the efficiency gains we see. We're seeing signs of this from the hyperscalers already (ie: MSFT & AMZN reached profitability on their AI capex). For the tooling - what used to take me \~6-9 months can now be done \~6-8 weeks, and the quality is actually better than before I used AI. The next areas it's going to be integrated into en-masse are robotics. IE: There are package sorting & scanning robots out there who can run without rest, 24/7, for days on end, making 0 measured mistakes. Those are going to be integrated into our supply chain - and every step of the supply chain is going to have intelligence integrated into it. In this sense - that is what palantir is working towards from my understanding. After seeing what OpenAI & anthropic have done for software - it would not surprise me if we see the same thing occur with palantir with robotics. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons\_paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox)

PaperHandsTheDip

Recent ER's coming out of the hyperscalers suggests their AI investments are starting to reach profitability while simultaneously increasing their capex. As the models continue to improve / get more efficient / get better - more people will pay for them. I use AI tools for work - I spend \~$600 / month of my own hard earned money on it. Every single person that I know that has figured out how to integrate it into their workflow is seeing massive productivity boosts. Most are starting to pay for it. IE: I recently found out my lawyer and accountant are also using it. Demand is going to continue to grow as it gets better and people start integrating it into their workflows. They have done a fantastic job getting the tools "out there" (for free) - and they are starting to do a great job at capturing enterprise users / customers. Intelligence is going to be integrated \*everywhere\* - even outside software. Robotics is the next big area of innovation and will be the thing that "changes" how people view ai. We are seeing it integrated into humanoid robots that can do things like sorting & scanning packages. There is a prototype out there that ran for 80hrs straight, without rest, without making a single failure. Integrate that everywhere into the supply chain and now it runs 24/7, with fewer mistakes, etc. It's not going to slow down or stop.

PaperHandsTheDip

Thanks. That's incredibly unlucky timing buying right before a correction on SOXX. The biggest downside with triple leveraged funds is volatility drag - the daily reset destroys value. IE: If the market dips 50% and goes back up 100% (back to breakeven) - the triple leveraged fund will actually be behind - whereas an unleveraged fund would be back to breakeven. A bear market of 25%+ can wipe out 90%+ of their value... so you never want to buy one before a bear market. In that sense - I personally only ever buy them when we are well into bear markets in sectors that I'm bullish on. Basically - the market and the fundamentals disagree. It's a way to control / manage risk (fundamentally solid, already dipped, so odds of it dipping even more (or being lower in the next 1-2 years) are low). Typical bear market only lasts for 6-9 months before a new ATH is seen. So if you get in one - it tends to be a good time to buy. IE: For AI I understand how it is useful (I spend $600 / month on it) as it's decreased the time it takes me to implement features from \~6-9 months down to \~6-8 weeks. I believe others are starting to do the same in their respective industries - I'm aware that both my accountant and lawyer are using it in their day to day workflow as well. In that sense - I suspect demand is still growing & will continue to grow. There are a ton of people I know who haven't tried it. There is a ton of room for growth. The fact the hyperscalers are increasing their capex while simultaneously reaching profitability suggests that AI demand is real. It's not just me seeing the value in it (IE: spending real money). MU has a forward PE of \~5, for example. IMO that's insanely undervalued when considering the growing capex and the growing AI demand. AI is going to need more compute & more chips - not less. I do think this chip cycle is a bit different than previous ones in some sense - the driving force this time is commoditized intelligence. It's not upgrading hardware / buying new hardware. In that sense - I think that many of the chip companies are undervalued (and the semis too) - as the projected growth estimates are probably low. The correction we saw on SOXX looks normal. In every bull run there are corrections - it's expected. But so long as the companies continue their insane rates of growth - they will eventually go up. At the root of it all - it's basically a question of "will AI demand continue to go up?". I think it's "yes" - as almost every single person that I know who has tried it has started to integrate it into their workflow & isn't going back. I suspect there are a very large number of applications / things out there it hasn't been applied to yet - it's going to be everywhere.