IE

PaperHandsTheDip

Not by much - it's better to start now than later. Median net worth (ie: your average joe) by 30 is \~28k, and \~88k by the time you hit your 40s. Don't be misled by average - as the mean (average) includes incredibly high earners which throws the data out of whack. IE: If 9 people had $20k and 1 person had $1m, the average would be $110k, but the median would be... $20k. [https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/average-net-worth-by-age](https://www.empower.com/the-currency/life/average-net-worth-by-age)

FlipZip69

Not well or at all because it is mainly a rule databased AI. It was one of the main problems of a negative knowledge database driven system. IE. If i were to say 'Water is dry', it would be unlikely to have a rule for that. Thus it would search the database and likely come up with something like droughts or chemical composition of dehydration. Or it might just come up with 'no relevant information found'.

sonofalando

The entire economy is a scam and this includes the job market. If you look around you everything is being rigged with algorithms and AI tools. Shopping? Sure we’ll use AI and market based algorithms to determine the maximum that you’ll pay based on your demographic and what we know about your income and spending habits. Buying a car? All dealerships hooked into the same systems using algorithmic systems to scrape listings and price listings as close as possible to one another and refuse to negotiate in store. Stock market? 95% of trading is algorithmic bots owned by institutions. How about jobs? ATS systems using AI to essentially hunt unicorns and throw everyone in the trash heap if they don’t match even 1 skill despite it being similar to experience with a different tool. There’s now lawsuits because AI tools are found to be discriminatory including for those with disabilities. Companies claim they can’t be held liable because a human didn’t make the decision 🤡 How about just online shopping in general? The internet is flooded with bots and companies like Amazon use algorithms and AI to adjust pricing based on personal and spending habits per person and demographic. What about housing? Federal government filed suit against a company that was using algorithms and price fixing nationwide to ensure landlords were extracting the maximum amount from renters and disallowing competitive pricing because it’s “market based research” IE we know the maximum we can safely extract with computers that can price for the maximum instantly. The entire economy is rigged with price fixing and companies trying to use plausible deniability because “the software did it not a human therefore it’s not illegal”. EU AI act now has laws prohibiting the use of AI in hiring decisions.

poopermacho

IE power already had its run because they are constrained by the same grid limitations.

CoughRock

not going to lie, if they just hold the interest rate steady without constantly fkking with it. The inflation issue will sort it self out once demand destruction happen and new competitor or alternative commodity join on the supply side. But no one dare to plan any factory expansion to increase supply cause they never know when the fed will mess with rate again. Interest rate manipulation is just too board and too blunt of a tool when there are more precise tool that target specific area of inflation. IE: if food and used car are inflating faster than other sector, just increase a temporary sales tax increase for these sector until these sector specific demand get crush, no need to hike rate and destroy jobs in unrelated sector. Plus increase sales tax actually boost federal revenue and decrease national debt, so it's more targeted and help ease debt burden than interest rate. Both raising rate and cutting rate just cause way too much front running and whiplash effect. Just dont fkk with rate, the economy will sort it self out.

ohell

I hear you, but [what about other traders??](https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-comparison-v2.html?isin=IE00B1XNHC34&isin=IE00BK5BCH80&isin=IE00BM8QRZ79&isin=IE000P3D0W60&isin=FR0014002CG3)

PaperHandsTheDip

Huh? Have you used it? Yes - weak engineers are reporting it helps them. Strong engineers are reporting it helps them even more, notice how there have been layoffs all over tech and it's one of the hardest industries to get into right now... The reason is a strong engineer knows the problem he wants to solve, how to frame it & how to approach it. Historically they would break it down into sub-problems and pass that workload off the juniors to implement. They would implement it, you would code review it / make sure its tested, etc, and integrate it. Now tho - the demand for that task can be offloaded to AI. I can design a system, cover all edge cases / testing / model the error surface in a design doc and get an agent to go over a plan to implement it. I can spin up a subagent to validate it (similar to how mythos is finding vulnerabilities in everyones software), it can ALSO find vulnerabilities / faults in your design. Then I get a set of subagents to go thru and implement the features with tests, and another set to go thru, merge them together and code review them. The result is I get a set of 10-20+ agents working on a single feature, with 100% test coverage, designs having been validated, etc. The weaker engineers don't understand that process / the dev process very well. Pre AI they were completely lost / wouldn't have been able to implement it. Now tho - they can just tell the AI's "build it for me". But - it doesn't know the constraints / design goals / edge cases, etc, so it just guesses. You end up with a system that "appears to work" but is full of faults / holes / etc. That's the largest difference between the two and how they approach problems. Yes - weak engineers are seeing productivity boosts, but strong engineers are seeing even larger ones. IE: The only reason I can shitpost is because I have 4 agents running right now - implementing designs that I built / iterated on yesterday. Each one is going to take \~2-4 hours (est) to wire up, test and validate. After that's done, I'll go over it and validate everything, then get another agent to validate it, again. Etc.

7nightstilldawn

Let me explain it to you: The US government has enabled and empowered the market makers (CITADEL) to ‘run it hot’ with the express unwritten promise that the government will bail out everyone who’s valuations could/would/and should tank, if the market was truly free and fair. THE US ECONOMY IS THE LARGEST PYRAMID SCHEME IS THE HISTORY OF ECONOMICS. Either play buy their rules, IE: Invest in a 401k and be thankful for 8% or get fucked.

essexboy1976

I'd say much of it has to do with "crashes" being very highly publicised and obvious as they're often relatively short term events ( IE they happen quite quickly) So people are more aware of their occurrence, whereas stock markets don't really go up at the same rate, they in general just gradually creep up year by year so the increase isn't as noticeable. For example the crash that caused the great depression is still in people's minds despite the fact there's virtually no one alive anymore that can actually remember it happening.

TennesseeTennessee

They’re sold by the 100 because they’re supposed to be used to hedge long positions of large numbers actual shares. IE: I own 10000 shares of AAA stock that’s got some risky outlook I’m worried about, I spend the premium to buy put options that give me the right but not the obligation to sell at the strike price (below the current price) to limit my losses without having to actually sell my shares. Regards here pay the premium as a gamble without owning shares because of their volatility and that they allow them to collect the increases or decreases associated with large amounts of shares. The gamble is that shares don’t expire and very rarely go to zero in an afternoon. If you don’t sell or otherwise unwind your option position before the expiration date it’s worthless, they can also expose you to risk 1000x what you put in, if you sell naked options you may be obligated to buy 100+ shares of whatever you were gambling on.

Brawmethius

I mean one of the few logical things market has been doing in reacting to build side reporting mainly huge margins. Yeah its cool for the shovel sellers but it also literally means the end users are paying more for less and it makes the ROI even more questionable which brings into question "will they continue to spend like this?" IE 1GW center daddy Huang said was about 50B what 6 months ago? Now its 100B. If the compute itself didnt become twice as valuable then thats a big red flag.

xDubnine

so you really think that russian oil being blown up and the strait closed again to hostiles (IE USA) is a good sign of world tensions easing? we are one saudi family away from selling us out and putting us all in soup lines, only i will be sippin on lobster bisque with my bear profits and bulls will be sipping on ice cube soup

PaperHandsTheDip

Entry level, yes. But entry level jobs are disappearing as they can be largely automated. The skillset has changed / is changing. Domain specific knowledge is significantly more valuable at the moment. IE: I'm implementing things at quite literally over 10x the velocity I was pre-AI. Everything is still adhering to my designs / standards. But instead of having to write a couple hundred lines of code by hand - I can get an agent to do it. Tell it to iterate a few times & 20 minutes later it does exactly what I wanted. Implement tests, etc, and it "works". Today I created and merged \~8 PR's exceeding 4k LOC, ie. I've been working while shitposting all day. The flow has changed drastically.

Moist_Emu_6951

Thematic ETFs only, the ones I invested in are KOID for humanoid robotics (IE000O6Z73N7) and CAUT for Chinese EVs (IE00094FRAA6)

Gulliveig

Ok, but then, why focus on a more or less randomly chosen title, why not just buy the whole sector? For example BTEC (ISIN IE00BYXG2H39), for me it made +50% in like a year. Just did a [small rebalancing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ETFs/comments/1ulki3x/rebalanced_several_londonbased_etfs_in_my/) the past week along with some other sectors, but I certainly intend to keep the rest, exactly for the reasons stated by you.

LetsMoveHigher

How do people NOT realize that "AI" has been around for a long while? Think about how many times in the past 10 to 15 years you have spoken to automated machines (people). This is NOT new technology. The governments have been using AI on the people for probably the last 40 years. During that time, they have already created something much more better or in their own words incredible. We the citizens of this world get 40 to 60 year old technology to use. This way they always stay ahead of the mass population. They large push for AI NOW iis simply to get the citizens to PAY for the next upgraded "Technology". IE- it already exists and they habe told us this... 🤷‍♀️. Thinks

AlGAdams

When IV is already high because then the position requires more movement to be profitable.  IE using the strat on something like USO during early March Iran conflict when VIX was high.  Seems obvious its going to move and this obviousness is baked into the price of both legs.

ExplorerImpossible79

Also to add to this. When I am selling contracts I am usually looking for this exact kind of contract IE low Delta High IV

Sybertron

I mean the simpler take is there was negative movement on Semis, largely from a Anthropic is working with Samsung to make a ton of chips news, and the timing was right before a day off market closed day. So it may indeed be the beginning of the crash I'm not the market expert here, but the other thing that happens when the market is closed is volume is really really low. Therefore nothing is going to pump stocks, and anything negative tends to be really negative since there is no upward pressure in the market. Chips wise I really dont see how the antropic/samsung story does anything but make the existing supply much worse. Samsung isnt going to take those billions and suddenly swamp the market with MORE chips, they are going to go 'hey everyone we're moving these chips to reserve for anthropic, so you can pay more to keep your order or wait longer" IE the market just got more competitive and expect prices to go up even more. So overall I'm holding for now Im not down too bad, cause it could result in yet another pump in the next few weeks. Butttt I am really starting to scale out of AI stuff and getting ready for that crash cause even if the crash isnt real this amount of negative sentiment can certainly send a stock spiraling. And clearly there is a LOT of negative pressure right now.

Brawmethius

If you follow good practice of having sell orders on short term plays then you never have to worry about this. Meetings run long, things happen. When tens of thousands are on the line why add that uncertainty. If you are a discriprined trader, when you enter that trade, you have an exit price in mind already. THe first thing I do after opening a short term position is always open the sell side. Because hindsight sucks and is fucking useless. I have no magical foresite. So I settle with the second best option, automatically executed orders at prices I wanted. The biggest mistake I see traders make is exactly this, wanting to consider the short term play post fact. That isn't how short term plays work, your exit needs to be known before entering. Generally only requiring two decisions points (three if on vol event): profit target on thesis (exit price), cut price (stop loss if using, or just when you cut loose the position), x-y outcome (IE if earnings shows xyz I cut the postion, half the position, double the postiion, etc). SO much money lost chasing theoretical higher exits.

flynnccm

MSFT had lawsuit, similar to recent goog one, bc of Windows and IE in early 2000s. Never panned out and msft becomes most powerful company years later.

dAn_tHe_mAn7

I am really confused i didnt know there was two with the same ticker. The ISIN is IE000CEUZ052

skilliard7

It doesn't make sense for the app to be liable unless it can be proven that the injury was caused by their negligence(IE failing to conduct background check on driver). The driver should be the one liable if they are the cause of the harm. All of these tort costs just get passed onto riders.

BigBossShadow

you're confusing typing code with software engineering. Yeah typing code is mostly "solved", software engineering, IE solving problems with code is, at best, slightly improved

tachyonvelocity

Well new model means new valuations, IE low valuations.

CoughRock

i guess you miss the entire change inflation measurement to trimmed inflation part. IE: remove all the outlier price change and only keep the central cluster.

yomama_yodaddy

It doesnt matter until the markets closed IE the weekend when deals flop but theyre back on on tuesdays or thursdays

Glittering-Quote-635

Yeh, I actually know quite a bit about it.. I started my career at a company called Bay Networks, which was acquired by Nortel Networks in 1998. Nortel at the time was king of DWDM (Dense Wave Division Multiplexing) with the Optera line. We were selling oodles of that shit until the day we werent and the entire company imploded. Fun times. Ciena bought that part of the company, not sure what happened after that.. I think the DC's will be fine in terms of reusability. Some modifications for potentially greater cooling or more power, but thats doable. What I am not sure about is the need for all of them. IE, just like the fiber, we may end up with a glut of DC's that will be turned into warehouses or something..

LetsMoveHigher

Insiders and private money is able to sell early. They amended the lockout period for them so retail (IE pension and 401k's) will be left holding the bag. Don't worry though; the U.S government will bail you guys out with your own money. Causing mass inflation thus stealing 60% of your wealth. Been planned since 2008

ChowMeinWayne

From the ipo price. Yes. What about the open? Down isn't it? It's open market now and will drop to well below the offering price in the next few weeks IE it's not going to "pump". I suspect 100ish

LetsMoveHigher

It is coming from the "PEOPLE'S" pensions and 401k's. This has been the plan since 2008. The people will not bail out the banks again so they used private credit. They have sold out and once these IPO's hit pension and 401k plans are forced to buy in at way over valued prices. Thr SEC was gracious enough to remove a clause so it will allow insiders (early investors, IE private credit) to sell early, after 5 days i believe. Then guess what will happen ⬇️.... Once "The PEOPLE" lose their retirement plans, the government steps in to save the day. They will print print and print momey to "SAVE YOUR RETIREMENT"!!! Next will be massive inflammation destroying your buying power, IE one dollar will be worth about 40 cents.

JabCrossE4E5Quark

Mark 2 Market. IE, they invested 10B, but its worth 30B now, so they mark it as that and suddently they have 20B more in profit to their EPS. And companies can choose when to M2M investments to juice/drop earnings at any time under non GAAP

PaperHandsTheDip

\> The laws of the universe apply no matter if it is simulated or not. The laws of the universe are defined by the simulation. IE: If I run a simulation on my computer the laws of it's universe are defined by me. The laws of my universe are different than the laws of it's universe.

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Seriously. Can another software engineer back me up here? The infrastructure cost is literally $2/month. Maybe less. It's just bolted onto our existing Postgres database and internal admin app. There is some maintenance cost, IE, bug fixes when users find them. But honestly, the app is already in production and has been working nearly flawlessly. It was a side project of mine. I probably spend less than 5% of my time maintaining it.

1ess_than_zer0

The flaw in your logic chain is power needs nuclear (and thus nuclear needs uranium). Power can (and will) come from anywhere - whatever is cheapest and fastest to get online (IE - not nuclear). Nuclear surely will have a place (eventually) but I just don’t see it doing much for the AI buildout because of how fast they need to get this power online. Honestly utility scaled solar/battery could be an easy energy add as the tech and “green” side will most likely help sell the project to the public.

realribsnotmcfibs

Still on this shit? When the chips fall trillions will be erased from the economy over night and by then they will have made it so deep in people’s retirement and pension funds against their wishes that the government will be forced to bail these morons out. Now NVIDIA is doing well. They will live through it. But they are the drug dealer hyping the bubble out of proportion. Potentially the biggest hype man on the planet for AI and massive capex spending for data centers (so he can sell his products at B2B prices IE fat margins). The best part is to bail all these companies out and “save” the economy the US goverment will print money like it’s 08 or Covid again and every dollar you have saved will be worth far less….again.

hacktheself

 rare footage of OP behind the wendy’s dumpster in one year

Ok-Blood4340

Everyone else’s answer here sucks. Also, you’re asking the wrong question. It shouldn’t be “is the price of the stock going up or dow?” But rather, “what has changed about the company that has caused its price to go up or down?” Typically the answer is going to revolve around the news, which is useless information at worst, and short term at best, or it’s going to revolve around the financials. So take a look at the financials. Is revenue growing or shrinking? Is earnings growing or shrinking? If the earnings is growing or shrinking, how is that reflected on a per share basis… IE, are we experiencing share buybacks or share dilution? How about the revenue / earnings growth rates, even if they are still growing, are the rates slowing down or speeding up? Being able to answer these questions will tell you about the change in direction of the stock price… but not the valuation, IE, is the price of the stock a price I should or shouldn’t buy it at, at what price should I buy it at, or is this a company I even want to own… that’s a whole different series of questions. I dont own AVGO so I dont know the answers to any of these questions, but I suspect that it was probably overvalued to begin with, and its just profit taking temporarily causing the price to go down, but the fundamentals will tell you the probability of the future price movements. I would suggest if one wants to own ANY company, they should ask themselves and be able to answer these questions, at a very beginner level. TLDR: without learning about revenue and earnings, and proper valuation, just buy VOO and chill.

callebbb

All of the uranium and lithium plays are American (NXE is Canadian but is sitting on one of the largest uranium deposits in the world, and American utilities will be a major buyer. Canadian producers will also benefit from a “western strategic resource” pivot) Many of the copper plays are American, but not USA. IE is African but the rest are diversified between western USA, South America, and other global copper deposits.

Budget-Push7084

SPR currently has 365mmbbl. Tank bottom is supposedly ~150mmbbl. We’re draining ~9mmbbl/week. ~20-25 weeks until SPR hits tank bottom given current draw rates, IE December/January. That’s still quite a bit of runway.

CoughRock

low win rate call usually have much higher pay out ratio. IE: I time the nvdia June 1 taiwan speech pump perfectly with a monthly, got a 2.5x out of possible 3x. But using the same buy/sell timing with weekly It's 10x-13x. So the question become can you survive 30% lower rate to hit that 10x instead of 3x? For 10x, you just need to guess right 9% of time to break even. For 3x, you need to guess right 25% of time to break even.

TT_Vert

It's at least weekly until 60 days out then no rhyme or reason to it. IE, nothing between 59-80DTE, then only 10 days between the 80-90 DTE. I'm trying to sell one 60 DTE option on SPY each week but with this structure I am unable to. What is the reasoning behind the way they select available DTEs? Do I have ANY way to sell options in this black hole of time to accomplish my goal of one 60 DTE weekly for 8 weeks so I can continually repeat every 8 weeks? Thanks Dave

callebbb

AR, NXE, UUUU, LEU, for energy plays — GRRR for software / AI infra — ERO, HBM, IE, FCX, SCCO, FQVLF for copper. I’m bullish on commodities producers for grid electrification, energy production, etc, that have moats and/or large pools of potential output. Position: in with shares in all these.

MarsTellus13

"We" are not "running out of oil." We are approaching operational minimums, at which point prices will begin to rise precipitously and infrastructure performance issues and major price spikes may pop up with any disruption to supply. (IE, hurricanes, short-term refinery outages, etc.) To people saying "we've been two weeks away since March," no, nobody reputable has been saying that as far as I know, and I've been following this obsessively and putting my money into bets around late June/early July as crunch time. Europe warned about jet fuel shortages by early May in mid-April - then cut a ton of flights and raised imports, and that warning dissipated. Since late March or early April, trendlines have largely shown operational issues by June/July. The US's surplus is just about gone, and last week's EIA (which got drowned out by all the "deal soon for real! talk) reiterated that things are going to escalate materially in the next few weeks.

Potential_Cup6688

Liquidity in terms of deferred/guaranteed payments? Are they not marketed as "pension-like cash flow.". ?? I don't know that people think any deeper than that, but if they did then the next level of "liquidity" would be assuming your annuity is invested in something that will protect its cash flow and re-allocate asset diversity appropriately not carry a large debt that isn't balanced. IE they assume who they are investing with is balancing their own checkbook. 

callebbb

FCX, SCCO for high quality. ERO, HBM, FQVLF, and IE for high beta. 🫡

callebbb

ECG, PRIM, and a bunch of copper plays like HBM, IE, ERO, FCX, SCCO, FQVLF. Also data licensing potential re-rates, like RDDT.

callebbb

I started a copper play awhile back. I buy on dips when dollar rises sharply. FCX, SCCO, HBM, IE, ERO, and FQVLF.

chaniqqah

I don’t like Elon but it’s not a stretch to say the company with the most advanced space program would win the contract. And not that it makes it ok, but corruption at this level has been going on for decades IE Dick Chenney and Haliburtons no bid contracts during the Iraq War. Or Eisenhower and his entire cabinet owning tons of stock in United Fruit Company before they invaded Guatemala. Anger directed at individuals will never solve societies problems, we should be fighting for systematic change and dare I say take a page out of MLKs approach.

Cautious-Garlic-2198

That's not completely true. Supply side economics, IE cutting interest rates benefits borrowers, corporations and the rich, the velocity of that money is essentially 0, and even negative in some cases. All that money goes back into the corp and or rich person and is, for lack of a better term, 'stolen", from the labor class. I'm not saying that supply side econ. is not stimulative, it is, just not as long lived or as stimulative as demand side economics. Demand side economics, giving money to PEOPLE not CORPORATIONS/WEALTHY, has a velocity of 1 in that it gets spent right away and goes directly into the economy. AS money flows away from capital and into labor, they spend it, which brings on more inflation, interest rates go up, and multiples for companies go down.

LetsMoveHigher

Reddit is trash. As soon as institutions bought in they have ruined it. Reddit monitors and blocks anything the institutions want. IE they own Reddit. It was a great platform, not anymore.

titchy_boy

Why do Americans just assume it’s only oil coming through the strait and that the strait doesn’t really affect them? 25-35% of the global supply of fertiliser 9% of the global supply of aluminium (22% if you remove chinas contribution to production), helium, sulfur, bromine etc all flow through the strait… all of which are critical to the US… Even ignoring that, a toll on on roughly 25% of the global supply of oil would increase demand on other cheaper sources IE American oil and keep American oil prices inflated…

LetsMoveHigher

Space X will IPO will force retirement fund to buy it. They will be buying at yoo and then, wait for it, RUG PULL. Thus leaving the American retirement system broke. Wait for it.... The US Government will step in and PRINT BABBY PRINT to save it!!! IE 2008 all over again. Tax payer wouldn't want to bail out the banks again so the US engendered this skim so the masses wouldn't get mad because the will effectively be BAILLING THEMSELVES OUT! Force retirement plans to buy into severely overpriced IPO's..... Hence why Space X and the other "AI" company filled suit on the same day! Hurry up U.S. ...

No-Transportation843

Let me dumb this down for you NVidia says "we're going to beat last quarter by $X billion" Analysts say "NVidia probably will beat it by a bit more than that. Fair stock price is $220" People who are actually buying NVidia think "Nah they'll probably beat is by $Y billion, I think it's going to be worth $230 after earnings tomorrow so I'm going to buy a bunch since it's only $225 today" <- that's the whisper number Then it comes out, beats both guidance and the analyst's estimates, but the whisper number thought it would beat by $Y but it was less than that, so stock goes down because it doesn't meet the expectations of actual buyers IE wall st.

Greatlakes_fish

Massie is out so there are not adults left in the room. IE they are going to print.

CoughRock

not really, economy naturally expand over time. Using last 5 years growth rate as average. As long as we stop increase federal spending for the next 11 years. The economy will eventually out growth the debt. Since even it's 3-4% per year. The growth is compounding and will out pace the debt interest if spending is frozen. IE: Great britian didnt pay off its WWII war debt until in the mid 2000. But by then the economy is so much larger than the old debt that it's irrelevant and make more sense to delay pay off early. Greece is another example of freeze spending until economy outgrow it. It's not impossible. But since it require 11 years of spending freeze. Not cancel spending but just to keep spending the same, less of chance people get mad about spending freeze instead of cancel spending. That would require 3 full terms of presidency from both parties to agree to stop adding expense. Just need to wait 11 years then we will return to clinton era budget surplus. But can these congress tard resist the temptation to open the public purse string for 11 years ? that's the hard part.

Wolverine-91826

Youre 100% correct. Can I ask , do you know, does Fidelity automatically suspend the ltcg status of the shares if you sell a deep itm cc? IE does their reporting of 'long v short' take that into account? Because Fidelity is reporting my underlying as long term.

Jekarti

RKLB's Electron rocket though is not about volume, it's about specific orbit. Falcon 9 launches volume, not specific orbit. RKLB targets smaller sats that want an extremely specific orbit. IE military sats that need to see specific things. You can't really compare the two and the specific market RKLB is targeting is why it is a strong stock / company.

skilliard7

I don't see the "gym model" actually being a thing for AI companies: - OpenAI, Google, Claude all have free plan that casual users will use. You only have to pay for paid plans if you want reasoning models(IE for coding/professional use). - Gyms generally require you to sign up upfront, and then make it a pain to cancel(need to go in person during specific time to see manager who tried to guilt trip/shame you out of cancelling). With AI, at best they just hide the subscription info behind a menu. The only way I see the "gym model" working is companies that buy Claude/ChatGPT subscriptions for their entire teams regardless of if individual team members actually want/use them.

Crotean

They leapfrogged Intel in processor speed and performance for several years and are dominant in the dedicated SOC market, IE game consoles and their server chips made dramatic improvements when they started beating Intel.

dragonbits

How old are you? You may still have a long wait. I look at crsp off & on, never seemed to be "ready". Currently insiders are selling and at least in the last 3 months not buying. Even the 12 month stats are only slightly bullish. Insider trading isn't my only indicator, but when a stock is down enough relative to value, insiders buy. This metric won't work on stocks in massive uptrends, like IE: Amat, stocks at a near all time highs. Don't to a lot of that type of analysis on those stocks. Short interest is high, with \~12 days to cover. That is a net negative, while it can create a short term spike, it seldom last very long.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> Apply safeguards, make sure it's regulated properly Not going to happen in the international scene. How do you propose regulating it when those without it are falling behind and it's countries backing the technology? "Hey china, please stop". It has military uses (and is being integrated into the military). At that point it becomes a national security risk. \> Maybe once the dust clears, we get all the benefit for a 1/10 of the cost and then it actually becomes truly useful, costs included. We're just not there yet. Local models are only \~18 months behind frontier ones. I can run equivalent models to cutting edge ones offered by OpenAI and anthropic on my laptop, that are less than 2 years behind. The rate at which local models are accelerating is on-par with frontier ones. For 1/10th the cost? It's going to be 1/1000th the cost in 2-3 years. Why? Well - if OpenAI / Anthropic don't either increase the value they offer (or drop the price) local models catch up. I can run it for free on my laptop. \> Meanwhile, people are literally starving turning off their refrigerators because of AI data centers. Source? I know they are causing energy prices to increase, but it's fairly negligible from my understanding. I see people complaining about water and energy usage going up. The water usage is mostly overstated. IE: The US consumes \~322 billion gallons of water per day, most for farming. A datacenter will consume \~5 million gallons per day, or 0.001% of the usage. The low hanging fruits for water is in farming (deal with the runoff - it's insane).

PaperHandsTheDip

Feeding peoples expensive. IDK where the UN comes up with their numbers (probably super optimistic to get donations). There are \~800m people living in extreme poverty. Cost to feed them is \~$3 / day (at a guess). That's $2.5b / day to end world hunger for only the most extreme cases. But if you include transportation, storage, etc - can probably double it (ballpark estimates). IE: Cost to end world hunger is \~4.5-5b / day. It exceeds a trillion per annum. Why are those estimates wrong?

yomama_yodaddy

Gambling at ATH so im expecting unprecedented overpricing of the stock market. IE we’re not done yet

te7037

$IE

Wonderful-Sail-1126

Most people want confirmation bias. IE. They didn't invest in AI so they want to read stories about how AI is going to collapse.

PaperHandsTheDip

Regulations are good - but too much is not. It introduces friction into the system (including with legitimate investments / startups / etc) - and too much regulation can actually sink new entrants. It often enables existing players to exert monopolistic behaviors which is not good for anyone. We're seeing that happen more and more everywhere... IE: See the telecom industry.

tachyonvelocity

Good luck with that, the permanent underclass is about to see just how much they're valued, IE, not valued at all. If AI is all about disintermediation, the vast majority of people's jobs are actually just being middle-men. So if you know society literally holds no value in you, since the entire economy's money is going into capex on automating away your job, you either realize this by joining the ownership class or you fade away like the coal miners before you.

RefrigeratorTasty912

If you've been following NVIDIA CEO's Keynote speeches, that is exactly where they are transitioning to. Put it in a sim until it is matured, transition to a real world + induced simulation to train it on real physics. IE make it perceive scenarios in the real world without all of the real objects/actors. This is precisely what Waabi is doing as well.

PaperHandsTheDip

well - yah. That's why you get it to write a test - and validate the output of the test. The idea is that you layer multiple agents / layers together (which individually you may have a 99.99% cofidence in). If you layer 3 of them together - it's now 99.99999%. Then - you get that layer to write tests, and run millions of iterations. The confidence grows to 99.9999999%, etc. At that point - it's the same ballpark of confidence of me asking a partner "hey, code this feature". \-- I've actually had MORE bugs come out of my partner using this flow than AI... like... significantly more. Which have resulted in FAR more losses. IE: AI is already better if used correctly.

PaperHandsTheDip

It does \*exaclty\* what you tell it to do. The problem is the agents lose context / insights after \~50-100k tokens (think words). People who don't understand how to properly prompt / utilize them basically tell it "improve this feature!" - and since it has no context it has to look / iterate. It's window gets filled with garbage and it's no longer good. It'll write bad and shiity code. A good engineer tho - will understand the limits of it- and prompt it in a way / multi-step processs which respects that. IE: I'm over 2000 commits deep (always respect context window) in less than a month. It \*works\*. Why??? Becuase - I understand the restraints and work with them. I make commits / flow work around it. It's smarter than I / does better code / work - when context window is respected. Beyond \~100k tokens - yah - it goes to shit. But that's like \*ANYONE\*. Ask some random person to memorize every detail about a book / novel / etc - 100k words - word for word. Of course they're gonna lose context!!! So - work around it. \--- I use various tools to come up with deisng docs. / track progress / goals / etc - to ensure these constraints are met...

aspenextreme03

Not OP but does a traditional IRA have the same tax advantages as a Roth? IE trade in it and as long as you don’t withdraw. Just wondering.

PaperHandsTheDip

I'm using it for my production trading systems - it's fucked at how good it is / how much it has helped. The problem with prompt engineering - is it's basically a problem of union background knowledge with curiousity. You need the background knowledge to know what you are looking for. IE: If you randomly look at a CT scan - you probably have no idea WTF you're looking at (that's the background knowledge). You can probably identify a broken bone - but if there is a subtle tumor or something you'd miss that. If you didn't ask it about that - it might miss it (even if it's in the context). Anything you use it for works the exact same. **Background knowledge >> the rest.** Then - if you ask it about that specific feature / thing you saw / results you got - take it and iterate. Keep doing that over and over - results are insane.

wander9077

What I do: I have a base 70/30 portfolio (stocks/bonds). For every move 10% down from recent high I reallocate 25% of my bond portfolio to equities. So IE if it drops 10% I end up selling 25% of original bonds, if it dropped 5% more I end up selling another 12.5% of the original bond portfolio and buying equities and so on and so forth. This means I do not have a static portfolio in market declines and with bigger declines I end up with more equities on the bottom. I then contribute the maximum amount I can during non declines as soon as I make the income and attempt to roughly maintain the 70/30 portfolio (my income is not stable through the year and I make more some months than others in part due to bonuses and in part due to funding my retirement accounts (about 70K a year worth) in the first half of the year). I have not back tested this method, and im not sure by how much it beats a static 70/30 dca portfolio, but I can tell you psychologically it gives me something I think is constructive to do in any 10% or greater market decline).

prz3124

When you do figure out what Stock you're going to buy options in, what price point you looking? IE like ITM options or for example 20% over current price or multiple calls laddering upward? I've done some options but have never been successful on longs only short term less than a month before expiration.

carlos5577

Next time be a bear with bullish intentions. IE buy Oil stocks with the hopes that oil rips with the ongoing war in Iran.

LoudBrick609

Nope, like most sexual assault allegations: I generally believe the party that doesn't stand to financially benefit, IE the accused.

MotoMola

What do you guys do with your profits after you sell but don't necessarily need the money? IE: stock hits 600% in a year and you're cashing out.

MinerDon

Assume you had no debts and the bank called you up and offered to lend you $280k at 6.3% interest where you cannot walk away from the debt (IE you cannot declare bankruptcy). Would you take the loan to invest? Important note: Your investment income must be higher than 6.3% because you have to pay taxes on that income.

PaperHandsTheDip

Bit of both. Same way you prompt any agent - you outline the problem, ask it for potential solutions. I go a bit further and ask it to prove equivalence via tests and also prove it actually worked via live tests (usually just run it locally). It's very important to prompt it / direct it towards the correct problem (hand holding it part). But once i point it towards the correct problem / path -- its mostly just done automatically. \--- IE: I got it to rewrite a custom FIX handler from scratch and got it to match the performance of commercial solutions (which cost tens of thousands of dollars...). It took less than 24hours, with me hand holding it for \~8 of them.

PaperHandsTheDip

Everything. IE: one example is I got it to go thru a hotpath (called over a million times per second) and show me every cpu cycle. Then i asked it if it could reduce the cycles / overhead. I got it to show me the cost (in cpu cycles) of every operation - then got it to reduce it down / optimize it.

NoThoughtBeforePost

The general idea I think of is that a constant flow of money is going in. IE, as people make money, they will keep investing (from 401k, roth, regular brokerage, etc). They gotta buy SOMETHING, even if it is a generic ETF like VOO.

tachyonvelocity

Lmao at people accusing me and each other of being bots. This is actually ultra bullish for semiconductors. Bots are so good now that people can’t differentiate between bots and humans, IE human interactions are worth less, and bots are worth more. Who needs psychiatry and human companionship when AI solves human interactions and cures your depression? AI is literally a cure for the loneliness epidemic rampant in basement dwelling redditors and you’re bearish?

TimelessNY

This is really cool. Maybe some ticker filtering by sector or capital requirement? And inclusion of next earnings date, I personally try not to sell puts if there is an earnings report during the contract. Premiums would be a lot higher but you can get super burnt and I am not sure delta accurately accounts for this. IE: Ticker:ABC Score:NN Earnings in NN days With those I could see myself just using this tool and not having to bounce back and forth between tradingview.

CokeyKoala

Brokers can be overwhelmed by buyers. IE. Amanda Askell

PaperHandsTheDip

\>  My bottleneck isn’t producing code either it’s definition. That's arguably most peoples bottleneck. The human factor hasn't seen any increase in velocity. It's strictly around code production. For what I do (HFT) - the goals are quite well defined. Make it fast, ensure correctness. IE: I basically told my model last week "Here's the code, go over every function and try to make it faster. To test it, write a test that compares the output using the new function & the old function. Compile it with the compiler flags we use in production. Randomize the inputs and run 1 million iterations. Ensure equivalence and use a nanosecond precision timer. Do several iterations per function. If any edge cases are found, log them. To start - optimize individual functions. We will iterate and try to collapse / reduce functions / branches later." -- etc. It's very largely something that I'd do / can do by hand (and used to do by hand) - but claude accelerated it drastically. The deep thinking models are important - I've had it produce some very elegant solutions that would have taken me hours by hand (if I'd have even figured it out at all). Optimizing nanoseconds out of functions is easy to understand but hard to come up with. Claude does it in under 5-10 minutes most of the time. I can validate correctness very easily. In my experience the local models / free models lack the context / ability to \*really iterate\* / come up with elegant / fast solutions to these types of problems. Sure they'll come up with \*something\*, but is it optimal? Is there better ways to do it?

PaperHandsTheDip

Consensus over the next 12 months is still up in the air. I'm optimistic / bullish -- but I know many here are not. If I had a bunch of free capital right now I'd likely DCA over 12 months pending magnitude of cash. Worldwide ETFs outperformed in 2025 vs focused on individual countries (IE: USA underperformed). Historically the US has outperformed, but that doesn't mean it will continue to into the future.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> I thought you got the biggest Ws with algo trading Nah lol. In aggregate -- **yes**. But the idea is I find some small statistical edge and scale that up. It gets a ton of wins and a ton of losses. My average profit margin right now is < 0.05% of volume traded. IE: My algo trades $1 million back and forth, I'd expect to maaaybe profit $200-500 in profit. The idea is it reduces variance / is provably repeatable. Then just do that \*a lot\*. I never get "big wins" with algo trading - but there are cases where I'll go weeks (months) on end and never end up losing money over any 24hr period.

Equivalent-Load-9158

Alleged, and it doesn't sound believable at all. Outlandish, but also details are already shown to be not true. Like her position in the company wasn't tied to him(IE she wasn't his superior wouldn't have been working closely with him).

Comfortable-Sky7801

60% into the SP500 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B5BMR087 25% into STOXX600 https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=LU0908500753 15% into gold/stocks of your own choice. DCA every month.

alex206

IE 6?

CoughRock

some have too many btch but no money. Then again it's not an issue since he can just bum off money from them. IE: The tinder swindler, pretty famous court case. A guy pretend to be a son of a billionaire, rent private jet and invite rich women onboard for parties. Then asking them for "investment loan" and using the cash to pay off loan to the previous women, rinse and repeat to keep up the billionaire heir image. Kind of crazy rich successful beautiful women still get swindled and burn their marriage for a prospect of become a billionaire's side hoe. It's not like they don't already have money but greed seems to be infinite.

CoughRock

what do you mean ? it's literally how the original gold rush makes money. The pplp selling shovel,lodging and food/water/accommodation made all the money. While very few California gold digger actually made and maintain their fortune. IE: the shovel makers are making all the money as it did last time during gold rush day

CoughRock

By saving 1% tax for a 100 billion dollars company. Then collect commission on that saving. IE: if you can figure out a way to legally help amazon avoid paying china tariff, you will be making far more 5 millions per year.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> It is going to have disastrous ramifications on society under our current economic model, 100%. Basically anything that requires using your brain is going to lose it's value. Which is... everything. It's starting to become apparent that AI can actually think / solve problems. IE: I'm using it in work to solve problems that I assure you are not in it's training set. And... it's doing it more or less on par to my ability to. I've been writing software for 20+ years, worked at google, microsoft & currently design HFT systems. Academia isn't safe. Look at AI 4 years ago & 10 years ago vs today. Then give it another 4-5 years. We're going to have AI's performing research / doing PhD level work in a few years -- better than the experts in said fields.

Tiny-Art7074

You can test it on [testfol.io](http://testfol.io), start the time period 10 years ago, use something like VOO, and under the portfolio back test tool click "metrics", scroll down and you will see the safe and perpetual 10 year rates. The perpetual rate over the last 10 years is around 10%. The safe rate over such a short period, and with such little data is meaningless, but it would be higher than the perpetual rate. The perpetual rate in this case is where you end up with the same amount you started with. IE, the safe rate over the last 10 years anyway, is somewhere above 10% and it probably an anomaly, but either way, Wade was dead wrong.

Brawmethius

oh god the million dollar question, at this point with the FED backstop functionally the only clear collapse mechanism I can see is USG debt default. Otherwise as long as people accept poofing dollars out of thin air anytime the banking and financial institution needs them then they don't face a crash, as all crashes with out fail (even if the trigger mechanism is different) are liquidity crunches. Potentially bad earnings? But even then who goddamn knows, bad earnings seem to just increase volality which in turn our market plumbing is monetization of volatility which in turns makes it generating paper value in markets which then help prevent discovery. I have been trying to work this out for a few years now, and everytime I think its approaching a breaking point more liqudity is opened up. IE the sec ruling at the exact time the 0dte dealers were suddenly facing declining liquidity in collaterals. And I say this not a brag but as support of how goddamn difficult this to work out, I am a multimillionare with extensive market exposure and experience from the last 20 years. Advisors and money managers that I have worked with for decades and have worked with my family for decades, have no fucking clue what is happening. As outside of the shitposting and degeneration I am here for, I do have serious investmetns I am trying to long term protect that can't exactly or reasonably just "go cash" and what I am finding is the everything is derivatized and interlinked; and I am struggling to find real downside protection as I view the market and general asset pricing simply devoid of price discovery. But think most large accounts and groups are facing this issue, and its forcing them to chase yield and return... which is forcing them into mainly being the counter party in option dealing strategies or loaning collateral for it. Which in turn is making this worse as there are no clear areas to flee to. I really think no one has a clear view except for the major major players running the plumbing.

thethor1231

How about https://www.justetf.com/nl-be/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00BYWQWR46#overzicht

PaperHandsTheDip

Nah - optimization. AI is incredibly good at those types of problems / making efficient code. Tests are important as the prove correctness (AI might hallucinate / do something you don't want it to). Basically I can tell the agent "make this program faster" and... it will. Then I look over the changes, iterate, and do it again. Do that a couple times and you can make your system significantly more efficient. It matters a lot when you care about speed or cost. IE: My brother used it for a similar thing and cut their AWS bill in half. They are spending > $10k / month at their company.

PaperHandsTheDip

\> The ROI exists it’s just concentrated in certain use cases and certain industries. It's expanding. IE: I have a few friends in accounting and it's making its way into that field. They're starting to rely on it. I had a call with the doctor earlier (scheduling an appointment) - it was AI driven end to end). Actually a smooth experience. \> What software are you using it for if you don’t mind sharing? I design high frequency trading systems, although almost every engineer I know has moved over to AI assisted coding / purely AI driven. The demand is so high that the companies (ie: anthropic) are starting to have to throttle users / increase prices like crazy due to lack of supply / compute. I bumped my subscription up, and am thinking of doing it again due to supply constraints. My brother is paying more per month than me. His company is spending \~1k / month / engineer - and are very happy with the value.