IEI
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Mentions (24Hr)
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Increasing order of risk. IEI < HYG < JNK < TLT 😂
High Yield Credit Spread Compression Trade: Long $HYGH or via $HYG/$IEI Pair Trade!
High Yield Credit Spread Compression Trade: Long $HYGH or via $HYG/$IEI Pair Trade!
Why do Treasury Bond ETFs pay such low dividends relative to their corresponding yields?
Why do Treasury Bond ETFs have such a low yield?
Winner or loser? Only time will tell. 2021 ends. The figure below shows the annual return rate of investors who are holding the asset all year without trading. If you have adopted an active trading strategy, but the annual return is lower than the benchmark, think about what went wrong?
Winner or loser? Only time will tell. 2021 ends. The figure below shows the annual return rate of investors who are holding the asset all year without trading. If you have adopted an active trading strategy, but the annual return is lower than the benchmark, think about what went wrong?
Mentions
Depending on your state tax situation, SGOV would be a better place for your 12-month fund Safe and maximize income is a challenge for the 100k JAAA PIMIX SCHP VCSH IEI all "safer" but capping growth below 5% VOO VTV more upside and downside
my hedges of choice: VIXY, KMLM, GLD, IEI.
Bonds aren’t an attractive investment right now because the dollar is weakening. Who wants to buy bonds backed by a depreciating asset? TLT has been in the gutter and shows no support right now. IEF has been trading sideways for 3 years, even the IEI is below 2022 levels… if anything risk is on… all these ipos, ETH treasury companies, and even IWM is up 20% since April.
I've had a steepener on all year and it's printed a reasonable return. I went long the spread between IEI and TLT at a ratio that hedged out all duration risk. It's basically just been a more profitable way to hold a short-term treasury position. You could do it with futures for more leverage
I typed up a long-winded reply. It's complicated... I bought IGOV in Feb because I saw the DXY dropping. It's not a slam dunk but it's been good so far because it's not currency hedged so as the USD loses value it gains value. Since my life's savings are in USD, I'd like to preserve some purchasing power here. For bond ETFs, think about two things: the NAV (the value of the share) and the yield. IGOV's duration (i.e. the weighted average of bonds held by the ETF) is longer than what I sold (IEI) to buy it. Longer duration bonds are more sensitive to duration risk ("interest rate risk"): [https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/](https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/) However, US interest rates / yields are higher now. So they have farther to drop. If we get a recession and everyone rushes to drop rates, I don't know which will do better: IEI or IGOV. Also since rates are lower in Japan and Europe (look at the top holdings of IGOV, they are bonds from those places), the monthly yield of IGOV is lower than IEI so the currency devaluation needs to make up for it. If the USD drops maybe \~10% more I'll look at getting out of IGOV and back into US debt. I'd stay short term though (SGOV). I am becoming leery of long duration US government debt because i suspect it will not keep up with inflation. I think I'm not alone in this fear and I wonder if we get to a place where the 10y yield is way out of whack with what the Fed sets the overnight lending rate at -- especially if Trump pressures the Fed to cut quickly, even in the face of tariff stoked inflation. If bond yields rise (or don't drop as much) because of "bond vigilantes" demand a premium at auction, it will hurt the value of IEI (and TLT, way more so).
Conceptually, you have one way of doing it cheaply. 1. Use futures. Short /ZT (2-yr) and short /ZF (5-yr). This is probably the most efficient way of doing it. Just be a bit cautious of your BP change. This is the most cost efficient method you have - there is an implied financing cost rolled into the future - roughly, it's the yield of the 3-mo treasury bill, but it rolls around all the time. Other options are going to be stuff like short an ETF that contains the same duration you are targeting - maybe a mix of SHY (1-3 yr), IEI (3-7 yr), but your buying a mix of bonds. I'm of the opinion that tariffs are going to be walked back - but who knows. The market moves up 7% in 6 mins off a false rumor - there's a ton of volatility.
Tell you what. Just show me whatever study you got that number from and I'll show you why it is complete bullshit I'll use actual math and facts rather just lamely asserting "I'm right and you're wrong" like you're doing. * Edison Electric Institute (EEI) & Institute for Electric Innovation (IEI): In a 2021 report, they estimated that $330 billion in cumulative grid investments would be needed by 2030 to support 30 million EVs (not full replacement, but a significant portion). Extrapolating to full EV replacement would likely push this much higher. * EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute): EPRI has also conducted extensive research, and their estimates for grid modernization for EVs also reach into the hundreds of billions. * International Energy Agency (IEA): The IEA has highlighted the need for massive grid investments globally to support electrification, and while not specific to the US, their reports emphasize the significant scale of investment required in grid infrastructure. * U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Labs: Various reports from national labs like NREL and Argonne also point to infrastructure costs in the hundreds of billions to trillions depending on the scenarios and timelines So tell me why everyone who has ever studied this issue is wrong and you, somehow are the only one with the right number. Where did you get this number from?
BSV IS an ultra-short bond fund ETF. And it’s yield is worse than IEI which is 3-7 years treasuries
BSV is short-term, IEI is 3-7 years
When I do that, I see that IEI reports a portfolio yield of 4.03% and an SEC yield of 4.14%. However, that is dated as of Feb 28, and yields dropped a few bps today, so it's probably really ~3.99% now.
I looked up IEI like you said, and it reports a portfolio avg yield of 4.03% and SEC yield of 4.14%, each as of Feb 28, 2025.
Look up IEI. For those who downvote - do you own them or just making up numbers?
Treasury Sec'y said today there's no plans to raise the amount of bond issuuance this year. More supply would mean lower bond prices. There had been some expectations that issuance would increase. Since it apparently won't, rates are down and prices are up today. Look at the treasury etfs IEI, IEF, TLT, they're all up today. https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-refunding-bond-issuance-b685f026
TLT, IEI, IEF, GOVT imo. I think funds will rotate money into safe assets, which is what actually causes the correction so if I'm right you can basically long bond ETFs and the moment they top is gonna be exactly when stocks bottom. Since they are just correlated to interest rates it's a case of buy the rumor sell the news. These are all low IV so imo way easier than trying to time it with SPY/VOO puts and the market selling off the day after your puts expired.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio 40% VOO 35% TMFC 15% BRK.B 5% IEI 5% AAAU TMFC has a fairly high expense ratio but the returns outweigh them. The back testing goes as far back as 2018 which I feel is fairly indicative of typical market conditions, considering we experienced a bear market in 2020. If you strictly want the highest returns possible invest 100% in TMFC. The Sortino ratio is higher but the max drawdowns are massive. My mixed portfolio has the same Sharpe ratio with much lower max drawdown. Like I said it requires yearly rebalancing. If you just invest 100% in VOO or TMFC you won't need to rebalance.
Not sure if it's a language barrier - and I don't speak Portuguese. Are you asking about how to invest in US treasury bonds? It looks like you have access to US ETFs like SGOV. That is effectively the same thing for ultra-short duration treasuries. Are you looking for longer duration treasury funds? If so - what duration or average maturity are you seeking? There are other treasury ETFs that you can use depending on what you are seeking such as BILS (3-12 month), SHY (1-3 year), IEI (3-7year), IEF (7-10 year), TLT (10+ year)
I don't know about you, but bonds have been back to 2020 level. I bought IEI (3-7 year treasury bonds ETF), and TLT(20 year treasury bonds ETF), as well as VTI. VTI is up by 24.92%, IEI is up by 0.84%, and TLT is down by 10.47%. VTI in my portfolio is 95%, IEI 1%, TLT 1%. I test this out using the All weather portfolio, and contribute monthly and since both bond funds stopped to be funding since 2020 due to dynamic rebalance, the loss from Feb 2020 to this day is still a lot compared to my monthly contribution to VTI. If you tested it out for 2 years, you wouldve known that both bond funds were down by 10 to 18% at a long time and weren't moving until recent months, while VTI continued to move up, and you wouldn't have bought the bond ETFs. If interest rate is going lower, wouldn't companies borrow more to expand and thus lead to more growth of VTI or the US economy?
Idk about beating the S&P over 5 years. In the US, I could see bonds at the belly of the curve (esp. longer part like IEF) and TLH/TLT doing 2022 is still fresh in a lot of memories.. when bonds fell alongside stocks. This year bonds have been doing their traditional jobs those. IEI, IEF, TLH, TLT are all trending up since July.
What you’re looking for is a money market fund, maybe a 50/50 short-mid term corp/gov bond fund something like $IEI/$VCSH, it’ll get you about 4% / year, capital isn’t completely secured but the movements are pretty small
The average duration of HYG and JNK is like 6 years. You cant compare them to 20yr and 30yr treasuries. IEI is more comparable.
**IEI** (4.35 yrs) / **HYG**(3.67 yrs) would be a much better comparison, although still not quite the same duration. Over the past year HYG performed about 4% better than IEI, but over 2 years HYG has performed about 2.3% worse than IEI.
What exactly is this chart? I don't know what IEI or HYG stand for.
I have to say that you should read up on all weather portfolio. You can implement it. I think you don’t need to wait, but you could start with a lower risk option. Basically you need to put the right amounts in: 1) TLT (40%) 2) IEI (15%) 3) VTI (30%) 4) GLD (8%) 5) Instead of like a commodity fund (GSG etc.) I would do XLE or XOM something like that (7%) Not a financial advice, do your research, but this would be my suggestion to avoid volatility.
Everyone says you can't time the market, but algos and traders follow the chart to a high degree. Look at the chart of TLT, VGIT, SHY, which are Treasury bond ETFs of varying duration. Look at how 1-2 weeks ago we hit the same price point we had at least twice before in the past year, and we have now exploded up from this price point the same as before. This doesn't just happen by accident. I don't know if we'll ever see those prices again or not, but if we do, that's probably the time to buy. If you really want in on bonds now, one method could be to enter shorter duration (2-4 year maturities), and then if we dip more, rotate into longer duration (7 year, then 10, then 20 if we get to a really attractive price). You could use Treasury bond ETFs: SHY > IEI > IEF > TLT.
They don't look poor. You can't really just look at the fund price trend. Take IEI for example - It's a 3-7 year treasury bond fund - [https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239455/ishares-37-year-treasury-bond-etf](https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239455/ishares-37-year-treasury-bond-etf) The average yield to maturity is 4.02%. And the Effective Duration is about 4.43 years. That means that if you buy shares of IEI now and you reinvest the dividends, you should expect to have about a 4% annual yield in about 4-5 years. This type of fund is generally considered much lower risk because it's underlying is treasuries.
'm a beginner in stocks. I've done research and have my list of ETFs I'm looking at investing in due to reading an investing book. I have one issue with their portfolio. They outline to diversify in 3 categories. Bonds/low beta stocks/ small value stocks. The part I'm confused on are the bond stocks they are saying I should invest in. Here are the tickers ( IEI, TIP, BWX.) All of these stocks look as if they're plummeting. If I'm in it for long term investing am I just looking at the wrong stats when it comes to bonds. The stocks inside the low beta and small/value stocks all look great. It's just the bonds. Thanks!
>or more specifically, buying bond with average duration of 6.2 years This really depends on what you think interest rates will do. You might want to look at IEI (iShares 3-7 year treasury ETF), with an average duration of 4.4 years. IEI is also all treasuries, which I would prefer, since it doesn't seem like you are getting much if anything for the (admittedly small) extra risk in FXNAX. For his wife, Warren Buffett is recommending a bond fund with a 3 year duration, although whether that is also appropriate for you is...not clear. Note that bogleheads.org is often better at giving advice for people in or near retirement, since the board skews older.
Sold my [NDX put I bought pre-FOMC](https://i.imgur.com/0IxjoHz.png). Didn't wanna risk betting on 5 consecutive red days, especially when VIX spiked 33% in 4 days. Now I'm short intermediate term treasuries 3-7y & 7y-10y going into May Opex. Bought: * Boil $2C 5/19 @ 0.72 * IEI $120P 7/21 @ 1.95 * IEF $101P 6/16 @ 1.76 Poof or print?
If you’re not watching a IEI/HYG ratio chart, you should be
I Don’t get it. SVB crashed the day I finally made some money on TLT and IEI
SHY for 1-3 years and IEI for 7-10 years
I believe that the market is currently undervalued and presents a great opportunity for long-term investment. I recommend buying IEI/HYG on the weekly time frame. ^^[**Discord**](http://discord.gg/wsbverse) ^^[BanBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/banbets/) ^^VoteBot ^^[FAQ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/votebot/) ^^[Leaderboard](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/wiki/leaderboard/) ^^- ^^[**Keep_VM_Alive**](https://www.patreon.com/visualmod)
Where have i submitted picture of IH. Its IEI/HYG whose market cap is in trillion dollars.
Right, and considering the thesis is lowering interest rates, I'd agree with allocating more to TLT Something like 50% TLT, 25% IEI, 25% SHY. This way you have some maneuverability in case interest rates spike again in the short term. You can move some IEI/SHY over to TLT.
IEI and SHY won't move as much as TLT though if recession happens TLT has a modified duration of 18 years so it'll go up 18% for every 1% rate decrease
I think it's good to diversify a bit across durations. So I like TLT but also some IEI and SHY.
It's a good thing I said IEI fell 13%+ then, dumbass.
>I guess the question then becomes why hasn't the price of the ETF come down as much as it's underlying bond values. You blind dude? IEI has fallen 13%+ in the last year.
The coupon (monthly dividend) will be low because the bonds were created when rates were low. However the yield to maturity will still be about 4%. This occurs by the price of the ETF going down until the overall yield is the same as if you bought a bond today. So look at a chart and notice how IEI has been going down…that is what makes up the difference for todays investor.
The yield to maturity for IEI is 4.31%.
If you need the money in 10 years then I would suggest copying Ray Dalios all weather portfolio. 30% VT 40% TLT 15% IEI 7.5% BAR 7.5% GSG Or you could go all in on VT or VTI
>If defaults are still low, why are we seeing these dramatic movements in the MBS market? Duration. IEI is down 8% year-to-date, TLT is down 23%. But the moves in interest rates on the belly and the long end have been similar.
Ah. Nominal bonds are anticorrelated to inflation, so probably not the best choice for that purpose. IEI had a 9% drawdown this year due to spiking inflation. Cash / cash equivalents would be better for unexpectedly high inflation, counterintuitively. TIPS would also be decent for that. SCHP holds TIPS but you probably want shorter duration TIPS for lower volatility, like STIP or VTIP.
Pros/Cons of moving all money from Trad. Savings Accnt. to US Treasury Bond ETFs? I'd like to move my money to a location a little more resistant to economic fluctuation than a traditional bank savings account. I was recommend to use a US Treasury Bond ETF such as $IEI with Intermediate maturity. With very little risk / fluctuation in share price (10-20 cents of change in the last 5 years) and a higher interest return, what would be the downsides to doing this other than slightly less liquidity?
Short treasuries (SHY, IEF, IEI), long BITI, short yen (YCS). XLF long strangles at end of day of Thursday
Picked up some change on some strangles after the notes got released. Had me sweating for a while though. Opened up some more puts on treasuries this morning (SHY Dec 83P and IEI Oct 117P). Hoping for a bounce on treasuries tomorrow so I can add some more later this week before CPI.
I would assume TLT would go the same direction, but I think the shorter dated treasuries are where the real action is. I think 2 year yields are incorrectly priced but not as sure about 5 and 10 years. IEI (3-7) and SHY (1-3) have garbage liquidity on options though. IEF (7-10) might have better liquidity than TLT (and penny pricing!). BITI calls because BIT0 can only go to zero while BITI can theoretically go to infinity. (Imagine what would happen to each if scam lost 25% 10 days in a row)
I finally got to sell my EUO at a profit. Not only that, but it more than doubled over the weekend. God bless Murica! I bought more BITI Sep 30C at a lower cost basis and started buying puts on treasuries (IEF, IEI, and SHY).
I'm already bidding on some SHY and IEI puts
Why just those commodities? Here are my data and my assumption, but don't take my words as advice. Make your own judgement. Anything can happen, I have used the All weather portfolio with adjustment to 50% Commodity and the rest 10% each, for these 5 months with monthly contributions at the 1st of the month. VTI has gone down by 12.6%, TLT 8.6%, GLD 4.7%, PDBC 3.36%, IEI 1.4%. These are are the equities available in the market, so basically everything is down. But I am still going to input 50% of monthly contribution to PDBC tomorrow, keeping the same portfolio to see if something move ahead of it. So far even savings with 1% is better than any of the equities and disregarding people saying 1% is still way below inflation, it is still a gain rather than a loss even it is unrealized. I have yet to see the market going one direction, the previous months PDBC/commodity still rules. By the look of it if VTI goes down another 13%, I would start shifting a bit more ratio to it than my 10% in it. Currently I contribute 50% to PDBC. It was once 9 to 10% up during these 5 months, with 5 to 7% up with the whole portfolio. but now down by 5% as a whole. Now feel what you feel can oil continue to go up, so commodity ve the winner in near term? I don't see anyway VTI can go up this or next year, can even be down more, and if the world is to be collapsed, GLD, gold is to counter such event. And after collapse and recover a little, bonds TLT or IEI kick in, and a little shift to them it is. That's how hedge is, and since we(x, I am) are second guessing, when everyone is down a lot, you down not so much. When everyone up so much, you not up that much, but with the right ratio, you can beat the market. So average result could be around 13% annually with adjustment, but that's a rough calculation for long term, not short term. These at least will keep you longer into the market than just 6 months or 1 year, because you are less prone to emotions from market drawdown nor mooning.
Anything can happen, I have used the All weather portfolio for these 5 months with monthly contributions at the 1st of the month. VTI has gone down by 12.6%, TLT 8.6%, GLD 4.7%, PDBC 3.36%, IEI 1.4%. These are are the equities available in the market, so basically everything is down. By the look of it if VTI goes down another 13%, I would start shifting a bit more ratio to it than my 10% in it. Currently I contribute 50% to PDBC. It was once 9 to 10% up during these 5 months, with 5 to 7% up with the whole portfolio. but now down by 5% as a whole. Now feel what you feel can oil continue to go up, so commodity ve the winner in near term? I don't see anyway VTI can go up this or next year, can even be down more, and if the world is to be collapsed, GLD, gold is to counter such event. And after collapse and recover a little, bonds TLT or IEI kick in, and a little shift to them it is. That's how hedge is, when everyone is down a lot, you down not so much. When everyone up so much, you not up that much, but with the right ratio, you can beat the market. So average result could be around 13% annually with adjustment, but that's a rough calculation for long term, not short term.
I would recommend a well diversified index fund such as VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index), along with a small portion of bonds (5-10 years is a relatively short horizon). If you really want to pick your own stocks you could allocate a small percentage to that too, but I would personally just recommend VT for a beginner. So for example something like: 85% VT, 12.5% IEI (iShares 3-7 year treasury fund), 2.5% own stock choices. ^(The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information as financial or investment advice.)
VTI, PDBC, GLD, IEI, TLT in no particular order. I am still heavy weighted on PDBC for the last 5 months, 50%. I watch the trend of these equities and the effects of economic cycle and decide the weight of each every 1st of the month, or I expect for the whole year that some will be flat, and one or two will be top, so I bet and hedge on them, with money I can afford to lose without affecting my daily life/expenditures/emotions whatsoever. It is more fun than choosing individual stocks, because I know what is happening to the economy without reading people's life/suffering etc. That's just my opinion, not any suggestions.
Start by investing little by little like $1k to $2k a month. To be lazy, try lazy portfolio. There's one I have been trying these 4 months, but is based on a well known portfolio. Original All weather portfolio is: 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, and 40% TLT My adjustment: 50% PDBC(substitute for GSG, since this one gets no K-1), 15% GLD, 15% VTI, 10% IEI, 10% TLT. Idea is to capture all kinds of assets in the whole world market (you can of course substitute VT for VTI, but I feel gold, bonds and commodity are pretty related to foreign investment)
Cool. Very few people actually hedge using HYG. Well, like i said, HYG is kinda like risk on bonds and IEI your government safe bonds. So when HYG goes up, it indicates investors feel confident and they are willing to take on risk and hence risk on assets in SPX and Nasdaq starts rallying more as compared to safer plays. The reason for the HYG rally is simple. A lot of bearish sentiment was already priced in the markets after red-hot cpi and talks of 75bps. So 10yr bonds readjusted itself to FF rates, which were initially 3.2% but now 3.8% - 4 %. So when Powell actually delivered 75bps to fight red hot inflation. It meant kinda like sell the 75bps rumored bps and buy the news of 75bps. Lot of put a/g HYG have must have came off the markets. ( One day before prev march SEP FOMC) So hence we rallied. This in turn led to risk on assets rising in the SPX , Nasdaq and crypto. Now we shall see if this rally will last or not, and smart money are confident that Powell will fight inflation w/o bringing recession and deliver soft landing.
VTI, PDBC, GLD, IEI, TLT, altogether, with more ratio on PDBC atm. The market is going sideway nowadays. Adjust to more GLD if market crash and depression happens, adjust to more IEI and TLT when market recovers, adjust to more VTI when market expands.
You can measure bond exposure in years of effective duration. It is how much the bond will fall/rise compared to an incremental change in its yield. So for example IEF holds 7-10 year treasury bonds and its website reports an effective duration of 8.68yrs, meaning a rise in yield of 0.01% would cause it to drop 0.087%. You can extend that to your whole portfolio, so for example, if you have 25% of your portfolio in IEF, you could describe your portfolio as having 2.17yrs of duration to intermediate treasury bonds. Short term bonds naturally have less duration than long term bonds. So if you want to have 2.17yrs of duration in your portfolio using only IEI (3-7 year treasury ETF), you would need 47% of your portfolio in it, and using SHY (1-3 year), you would need over 100% of your portfolio. That leaves very little room for stocks or other assets if you buy them with cash, but if you use futures you don't need to tie up much capital to get that much exposure. You could short long term bonds as well. A long short-term, short long-term bond position is called a steepener trade.
Commodities (GSG, PDBC) have been up these 4 months by 7%. I am not saying to all in on them now, but DCA with amount you can lose. I have been testing the All weather portfolio, with adjustment to 50% Commodity (GSG in IRA, and PDBC in Individual account), and 20% GLD, 10% VTI, 10% IEI, 10% TLT these 4 months. The normal All weather portfolio is 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG/PDBC, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT. Due to the current economic situation, I adjusted it. So far the hedge is yielding me 1.2% for these 4 months with about max 2.5% drawdown these 4 months. I am not worrying about such drawdown and even there's more I can offset the drawdown by my monthly DCA. Patience is the key.
I am currently having an adjusted All weather portfolio with more weight to GSG/PDBC, some GLD, less on VTI, IEI, and TLT, the dip just dropped my portfolio from up 1.5% to down 1.3%, which is about $35 to me. $35 is not much of a loss, so no panic at all. Mostly cash here, and will continue to DCA to such portfolio, and adjust it accordingly for different economic stages. Have little money in small caps as well. These are all fun to me and not creating any financial problem whenever the market dip or crash. There is no need to avoid corrections as the correction won't create a problem. That's the mentality of investment.
Just predict the next economic cycle or estimate what is the current cycle, and put money in different vehicles to get more gain. VTI for expansion, which currently is not, GSG/PDBC for overheating, which seems currently is, GLD/Cash for recession which likely to be next year or so, IEI & TLT for recovery. Have some of each, more on the current situation, more or less on upcoming situation. You can both time the market as well time in the market doing so.
Buy and hold Broad Index fund, for what you can afford to lose, whether it is time or money. Such investment should not be used for other purpose, other than for retirement. Some will suggest to invest 25% of your income to index fund, please consider that. Dollar Cost Average/contribute monthly. The fluctuations will likely not cause you any emotion, because every month's up or down is so little, and you will stay investing for the span of your working life/till financial independence without relying on job. VTI is such fund. If for safer method, 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG(if in IRA)/PDBC(if in taxable account), 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT. If want to leverage, make adjustments according to economic stages, expansion-more VTI, overheating-more GSG/PDBC (like right now), recession/depression-more GLD+Cash, recovery-more IEI, TLT.
Look into the all weather portfolio allocation. Modify it to fit your needs. 30% VT - whole world stock market 40% TLT - 20 year Treasury 15% IEI- short term Treasury 7.5% GLD - gold 7.5% GSG - commodities
30% VT - whole world stock market 40% TLT - 20 year Treasury 15% IEI- short term Treasury 7.5% GLD - gold 7.5% GSG - commodities
Feel free to Print my colour art off and frame it: [Stone golem](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iJyDJ5n8xz4/Xx0f7p-t5YI/AAAAAAAAGEA/74lWL9dHjnk-AuwdG8Mde57pS5owZ4qbQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/20200726_154227.jpg) [Surveillance scanner](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xPrAgnKg5G8/XqQasSDSs-I/AAAAAAAAF5k/9uZMrUYEIVgwaf8zqMM9jSeG9MYpT4MUQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/20200425_203628.jpg) [Gingerbread princess](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Sn3zDTMo-44/XXMPfVFZ4SI/AAAAAAAAFQk/8fwEJMpu0joEdJdpczNOq_sO3ridqu3awCLcBGAs/s1600/20190907_104433.jpg) [Corgi with battle axe](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xVgYzmyeSwg/X7h2IEI6bQI/AAAAAAAAGOY/ckukrHUyQZYL7Cx1xGeI7qkDwYloUixvwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1854/20201121_110553.jpg)
That's why I think a diversified portfolio works better when things start to look bad and we can adjust accordingly. Previously I wasn't interested when some YouTubers explain Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio, not I kinda understand. and may try that on my own. 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT, adjust according to economic events, such as last year is the start of economic recovery, so more input to GSG than VTI and possibly less exposure of IEI and TLT as well. At least this strategy is quite bored, the strategy can actually work with a much stable mind that our money would not goes down the drain along with inflation.
If you really want to be more risk averse then Bridgewater's and Dalio's All Weather Portfolio should do the job for you. Stocks, bonds, commodities. VTI, TLT IEI, GLD, GSG. Not something I personally do but its a very risk averse strategy.
Nope no 401k. I had no idea how to invest until about 3 years ago. No one ever taught me. Took me being 5k in debt to even look at money books/youtube. Started using Dalio's All Weather fund if you're familiar with it (30% VTI, 40% TLT, 15% IEI, 7.5% GLD, and 7.5% GSG). But I realized that it too was dependent on a more of a DCA type approach. It assumed you had extra money every month. Honestly I think I would be about the same at this point because bonds are basically where they were when I started (about Q4 2019) if not a little down. VTI is way up, the other stuff kinda up. Definitely not a gambler with most of my portfolio. At least not on purpose. I do that with about 1-2% My thinking is this, if I choose to continue down my current path, there are two ways I'll be able to be financially independent. One is by trading, the other is by landing a steady gig. I'd have to completely move into something else. Not I opposed to it, but I haven't found something that I would want do every day for the next 30 years. But, thank you for the well wishes. Same to you! Who knows, you might find your trading working for you as well. I'm assuming your 10% trading allocation is probably the same or more than my entire portfolio lol.
TIP, IEI, maybe RPAR if you're willing to carry a bit more risk.
Good Morning☕️☕️, just a little yacht music for your ear [pleasure](https://youtu.be/f6tnj7IEI0E)
Perhaps not applicable to your experience, but what I ended up doing was fully funding my 401K and then rolling it over into an IRA whenever I hopped jobs (which was somewhat frequently earlier in my career). /MES is ~20K exposure, then for rates you can choose a lower duration contract (5Y is 100K exposure). I'm assuming the 45/55 allocation was derived [like so (flawed imho, for several reasons)](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/optimize-portfolio?s=y&goal=2&constrained=true&lastMonth=12&historicalVolatility=true&symbol1=SPY&endYear=2021&symbol2=TLT&mode=2&comparedAllocation=-1&startYear=1985&timePeriod=4&historicalReturns=true&robustOptimization=false&historicalCorrelations=true&firstMonth=1&groupConstraints=false); the equivalent of 5Y would be [roughly this](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/optimize-portfolio?s=y&goal=2&constrained=true&lastMonth=12&historicalVolatility=true&symbol1=SPY&endYear=2021&symbol2=IEI&mode=2&comparedAllocation=-1&startYear=1985&timePeriod=4&historicalReturns=true&robustOptimization=false&historicalCorrelations=true&firstMonth=1&groupConstraints=false).
[Thoughts](https://i.imgur.com/IEI82cF.png) considering the last triangle looked very similar?
I read this: [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/bill-gross-says-he-s-short-treasuries-expecting-3-4-inflation?srnd=premium&sref=RwlXLKt0](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/bill-gross-says-he-s-short-treasuries-expecting-3-4-inflation?srnd=premium&sref=RwlXLKt0) And was thinking about buying the farthest out Puts (October) on IEI. Please tell me if and why this is a terrible idea.
Np. Long term ETFs passive strategy from some YouTuber mimicking Ray Dalio's all weather portfolio: 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT Max record (back tested to 2007) annual yield 7.52% 10 year annualized yield 7.77% 10 year annualized standard deviation 5.89% Max annualized standard deviation 7.10% since 2007 Maximum Drawdown of 10 Years, 6.93% 2015, compare to the same year S & P Drawdown was 35%. Maximum Drawdown since 2007, 12.19%, of year 2008, S & P Drawdown was 57%. Annually rebalancing needed, can leverage when market is down.
Here's a total return chart of some funds holding tbills, 1-3yr, 3-5yr, 7-10yr, 10-20yr, 20-30yr treasuries, and 20-30yr STRIPS respectively. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BIL,SHY,IEI,IEF,TLH,TLT,EDV&p=6