Reddit Posts
damn mutha fuggers, i used to have an account at LOB
Mentions
RKLB hits $120+, supported by SpaceX IPO and the success of Neutron and their Defense LOB Or a huge fucking crash for the entire market There seems like no in-between and everything is going to be more volatile from now on, in particular with this administration and the uncertainty of economic data.
Ok that is your thesis. The main counter argument is that SPOT competitors don't have music as their primary LOB, which gives them much more tolerance to low or flat margins. If you think SPOT can come out on top despite that, stay in. If you don't, get out.
Where do you look at the LOB ?
Banks, including big ones tend to overwhelm me. In regional land, I'm researching FCNCA, they're a large regional out of North Carolina that came to fame buying the assets of SVB in the wake of the crisis. Interesting name, but no opinions so far. P/B seems to be the governing metric for valuation, and buying below P/B for a big margin of safety. However, there's a ton of uncertainty in the lending market right now, so I'm treading carefully. LOB is another one on my research list. I do find insurance interesting. The amount of high quality compounders in insurance is astounding. AFL, WRB.... people never talk about them, but they put up 15% CAGRs. Really solid businesses. I own KNSL, another great insurance company.
I work with about 4 people in my smaller team, along with many more in my greater LOB that hold the CFA charter. Haven’t remotely found what you’ve said to be the case. No such thing as “having” a CFA btw
I’m not worried about it. If the sharepricd drops maybe they will spin off some LOB. They have 6 or 7 independent business lines each generating the same revenue as an independent Fortune 500 company. Plus - YouTube is as large a business as Netflix with no content costs.
No. LOB (limit order models) by large AUM funds squeeze the stupid folks who use stop losses.
This is different imo. Yes, we have been outsourcing jobs to India for decades, but what I'm seeing now is different. Before, we'd have ancillary jobs being pushed out and support jobs that took direction from us. My local tram alone went from 25 member team to 10 and shrinking. As people left over the last 5 years, we've replaced them with new hires abroad. This will continue until the entire team is india with the exception of a few key people. Looking at the numbers alone, the indian team is already 3x the size. This pattern is occurring at every other team in my LOB and other LOBs as well.
OP isn't wrong about corp meetings though. I've been in plenty of c suite meetings and the lack of imagination and creativity is fucking zero when addressing an issue or LOB change. Think of the idiot CEO of sbux. I test my case your honor
yep, but i dont blame you for hopping in and out, amd is as volatile as it gets. I have had portfolio swings of 36k in a single day, but its worth it. AMD is going to deliver super strongly on all its LOB this year except maybe gaming.
I think AMD could easily double from here- think 1-2 years, while i dont see NVDA doubling for maybe 4-5 years. Keep in mind the only way NVDA would double faster is insane market domination >85%, which is just ridiculous. Also note AMD doesnt need huge market share... 10-20% would be HUGE. its mc is 287b vs nvda 2000b. literally 15% MC could justify SP \~860 in 2027-2028 without much aid from their other LOB.
ARM = AI hype train, recent IPO… but the calls I had were long dated (July strike 100). COIN = seemed like a no brainer… revived crypto bull market + new revenue channel from spot ETF custodian fees, and it dipped from 180 to 130 recently so seemed like a great entry. I regret not going bigger actually… almost Yolo’d an extra 20k but decided to diversify heh. My next big bet is DELL ($40k of calls) because AI hype train / data center demand / recent SMCI craze & improved efficiency and margins due to AI actually adding efficiency to their support LOB.
wowee my LOB 25th anniversary boxes are worth 65% more than i paid for em. im diamond handing em
LOB looks like a great bank to capitalize on rising banking fears. They aren't exposed to commercial real estate like regionals and has much more upside potential. Looking like a great buy if it hits support.
Erin Andrew’s: take me through the play(expecting a wholesome response for polite America) Richard Sherman: IM THE BEST CORNER IN THE GAME, when you try me with a SORRY receiver like Crabtree that’s the result you gona get………..LOB  shit never gets old
I bought into NOW and MA. Bought and sold out of LOB after seeing how bad the share dilution was over the past five years, it was too much for my liking despite the positive growth.
LOB is diluting shareholders hardcore it seems. Does that not bother anyone?
u/creemeeseason I want to have an open mind on LOB. What is your estimate of intrinsic value. How are you arriving at it?
If that's true, than why hasn't there been deposit flight? Other than the initial SVB move, most banks haven't reported big drawdowns in deposits. LOB actually reported a gain in deposits, 10% y/y even. Yes, they pay a higher rate than JPM. Also, Love oak has been less dependent on deposits in the past because of their government loan backing. They've chosen to push for deposits lately because they think it's a better relationship with their customers.
JPM is at 1.6x book and LOB is around 2.2 (barring today's report which might change that a bit). So yes, it's more expensive. I can't see JPM being a multibagger from here though. It's just too big, too regulated. LOB is in small business loans. Most of these loans have backing from the government. They also have incredibly low default rates on these loans. They started with veterinarians, for example. Stable business, almost none go out of business....great businesses to make loans for. They only touch a fraction of these types of loans so far, and there's no one else really competing for them. As far as duration mismatch, the FED basically eliminated that risk last year with their backstop. I think the bigger risk for banks right now is NIMs, and LOB is included in this. Their NIM declined on their earnings today. I think there's a very low risk of them going belly up at this point.
LOB looks very meh. They wouldn't be the first "niche underserved segment" bank that went bad. It's a reasonable gamble on fast cuts I suppose. But if we have higher for longer and economy keeps pumping they get smashed and at 1.6 or so EPS, $42 stock feels extremely expensive.
Excited for EXP earnings tomorrow. Might start a position depending on what the release says. One more quote from their annual report espousing their long term focus: "We have a three-part saying at Eagle that embodies our success philosophy and it also reflects where we spend our time: “Choose the value to create” (wisely, strategically), “create the value” (superior execution) and “communicate the value”. We believe that doing all three exceptionally well is essential to our success." LOB earnings tonight really piqued my interest too. I love their business model and culture and think they have a nice niche they're carving out. This one is really tempting. Still no word on why USLM rallied 12% today, but I'll take it. On volume too!! Also, the unwinding of WINA continues. Another really nice move down on LOW volume. I might actually get a shot at owning that one at this rate. IPAR surprised me with selling off after earnings too, but it's still a little expensive for me.
LOB earnings: Reported fourth quarter of 2023 net income of $16.2 million, or $0.36 per diluted share. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaled $73.9 million, or $1.64 per diluted share. “Live Oak Bank spent 2023 doing what we do best -- growing loans, deposits, and revenue in our mission to support small business owners, our employees and our shareholders,” said Live Oak Chairman and CEO James S. (Chip) Mahan III. “When looking back at 2023, it is clear that our customers and our model were extraordinarily resilient. We are proud to serve America’s small business owners through all cycles and believe our fourth quarter results, and the historical performance of our bank, continue to demonstrate our strength in the market.”
I might have a longer post on it later today. They have great information in their 10K about the concrete industry. I'm blown away by the returns they generate, but because concrete is a contributior to carbon emissions, they're traded at a low multiple. EXP, OTCM, WINA, and now LOB are my big interests right now.
Shopping list for pullback: WINA below $300 OTCM below $55 Strongly considering EXP or LOB, but still researching both. It's always nice to have some cash during earnings season. I think the market has finally realized the hopes.of rate cuts were over blown. Some random thoughts too: the two biggest advantages retail investors have are being able to buy small stocks that finds can't touch and being able to view things from a longer duration than the market. Really great compounding businesses are usually cheap when looked at from a 10-20 year timeframe. It's finding a company with a 10-20 year runway that's hard.
A lot of regional banks saw their earnings fall this year for 2 reasons. 1) they over earned in 2022 because of all the lending during covid. 2) FDIC charges after SVB and the according loss provisions hit hard. LOB, for example, had a terrible Q1, but has recovered since. Doing this from memory so be gentle if I mis-stated the quarter.
Thanks. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/LOB/live-oak-bancshares/net-income Sometimes sites make mistakes or GAAP is not reflective for good reasons but here's where I pulled it.
I think one loaf of bread [LOB] = $100 should make a pretty good dent in it. 1LOB = $1000 bedt problem mostly solved 1LOB = $1Trillion dollars and they are done with the national debt by handing over a chicken, a cow, a pound of butter, and one bushel of wheat.
Congress has been talking about forcing Amazon to break up it’s LOB for years. Nothing has ever come of it, I expect this to be a giant nothing burger as well. At worst they eat maybe a billion dollar fine, and honestly that would be unprecedented. But also, the gov’t is bleeding money and they need to get it from somewhere. So who knows.
A PSA 10 1st edition LOB blue eyes white dragon is currently around 38k https://www.pricecharting.com/game/yugioh-legend-of-blue-eyes-white-dragon/blue-eyes-white-dragon-1st-edition-lob-001 I wanted to buy one while everyone is still in shambles but I might have to look at less expensive cards like Exodia or Jinzo that go for around 5k
Unlikely, they own NBC, Universal Studios, Sky in the UK, Xfinity in the US, the Philadelphia Flyers… among several other smaller LOB. I don’t think they’ll be going anywhere anytime soon.
Haha Yee. A little more detail is I work on their one of their main LOBs and the people I work with are all really smart and I have a slight idea from that work and their reporting calls that there is a huge push on Azure and cloud services, ai integration into their products to improve productivity not just internally but for all msft 365 users (of which I think the excel integrations are the coolest), and I like what they are doing to earn business there. I just think their team overall is moving in the right direction. I use them for everything and for the most part the Ecosystem is pretty flawless despite what some people will say. I actually really like their products. I also think they are executing on development of that ecosystem on all fronts not just the cloud part (like Amazon) and google is no where close to what msft is. And in this their customer base is massive which spreads the risk of any one LOB across many different areas - ooo consumer sales down? All good, azure/enterprise is up Etc etc. Speaking of growth and acquisitions - I think Satya is doing a great job. The acquisition of GitHub was genius, open AI and Activision are deff notable and the Xander grab was very smart too as they build out their marketing and analytics wing. but it’s the acquisitions they are making for cloud products, cyber security, IoT and data management that prove my other point that their focus is on growing in these key areas which is huge. I like satyas reserved but aggressive approach. They grow but they don’t acquire a lot of fat doing so and what he’s been able to do since taking over is nothing short of legendary. I think he is one of the best current CEOs in the game and will go down in history as such. And because of his style he has built and equally impressive team around him which as we all know is almost more important than being a good ceo. Last but not least I like the stock because I’ve been following it for a while now. I understand how it moves and where it’s levels are. I like that it pays dividends. I like that it’s a good balance of defensive but more than enough upside for me for long term growth. I think it handled this down turn really well and while it doesn’t move like Aapl or google it’s definitely a more measured safe bet for me. I like that it doesn’t get looped in with these ultra high growth tech companies and I think that’s a plus. I just really like this stock and this company. I could end up being dead wrong but for it to turn against me we would need like another Steve Ballmer era, some dark horse move out of google/Amazon or some major catastrophe for that happen and I think I pay enough attention to defend against that happening.
> as stated my vehicles are not used in the course of doing business. you cant find any reason to use them for work ? > My home office isn’t used to host clients, etc.. it’s a 10x12 room with a desk in it. so allocate a bigger room, or a second room. > don’t take business lunches or dinners, my vehicle isn’t used for business travel, and my home office is incredibly small. and you dont buy much in the way of electronic or office supplies. And you dont have any other LOB's or wholly owned investments, or really any of the standard tax avoidance vehicles. Honestly, it just sounds like you enjoy paying taxes. Did you know you can send extra to the IRS, just write em a check if you want. Some people dont like paying taxes as much as you do. Yeah its a hassle and feels like bullshit to reshape your life and business to appease the IRS, but it is lucrative. I know a person who gets nearly 100k of costs deducted from income, and also got a couple forgiven PPP loans, and honestly I suspect his starting situation wasnt all that different from yours.
An Amazon LOB is my client and they’re the worst I’ve ever had. Don’t do anything the industry standard because Bezos needs things his way (even tho he has 0 to do with it) and we have to use Chime which is the biggest POS I’ve ever seen
I was back in the days. Think LOB packs era 👀👌
Their point is valid though. It’s not automatic that a small revenue LOB automatically gets spun off. IPhone’s revenue contribution was tiny a year or two after launch compared to Nokia and others. Likewise, Amazon Web Services (Amazon’s retail “cloud computing” line of business) grew from small revenues 15 years ago to a substantive LOB for them today. But Amazon doesn’t spin them off (partially because the margin contribution from AWS offsets some of the drag the retain division brings). So, it’s not an automatic that new business lines are spun off. But even when they are (3Com/Palm) there are means by which existing shareholders are compensated for that.
Agree with everything except that they can't compete on hardware. I believe they chose not to compete in hardware, but could totally pivot and crush it on that side too. Their data centers are such edge cases that they developed their own hardware switches, which they open sourced. Would crush Cisco if they commercialized it instead. While building internet.org, they developed some of the best laser tech. I think the general public doesn't realize all of the internal IP they've had to build themselves to support their growth. Similar items are going to come out of the R&D process of VR, with all the $ they've been investing in it. They may not get to the true VR vision they have(though they probably have the best chance of any player), but they're going to develop some really impressive tech that will be leveraged by totally different industries. If they were really hurting on one front, they could totally turn to one of these items and create another massive LOB.
17% of 3 trillion ??? That’s $510 B if it was a standalone business. United Health Group is currently the 7th largest company by market cap in the US at $509B So you’re saying even if Apple grows it’s financial arm it would only “add another top 10 market cap LOB to itself” Like do you even hear yourself? That’s beyond incredible and you’re acting like it ain’t no thang.
A lot of noise as of recent .... Overall fundamentals intact for most parts .... profitable and rapidly growing and expending in new LOB ...
From LOB Always look on the bright side of life Always look on the light side of life If life seems jolly rotten There's something you've forgotten And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing When you're feeling in the dumps Don't be silly chumps Just purse your lips and whistle, that's the thing And Always look on the bright side of life (Come on) Always look on the right side of life
Anyone wanna explain me the lobster people? I checked and LOB was up today. Also STER was up today too. Assuming related. Idk.
Disagree, BABA is my largest holding, I track earnings closely. The stock falls (a lot) on regulatory fears. Earnings last quarter was very bad, core commerce (their only profitable LOB) grew by only 3% YoY for same quarter. As a result, estimates for Q3 (upcoming earnings) are very low. I would argue that even a regular quarter (showing more than 3% growth in core commerce) would drive positive share growth.
$LOB They own the second most amount of pandemic SBA loans and it makes up at least a quarter of their assets. Those SBA loans will begin repayment in May and they are going to find out how many of those loans are fraudulent (a lot). (The most is owned by $HBAN)
Ive got some small/mid cap value thats literally propling my portfolio up, ATEN and LOB
MI is perfect if marketplace is bullish and margin interest is less . Few are at 0.65 to 2.5 but big brokers charge more 5 to 7. So the point is finding a bullish stock and % as you said. My rule of thumb is 20% MI and loss tolerance 15% based on LOB for MI.
From people that work / worked there. They aren’t hiring for Iona origination (their only profit LOB). Everyone in lending is letting people go.
So I usually post dumb shit in discord like "I cum in my ass" but I'll be a bit serious for once since my adderall kicked in. I work in banking and we've gone through a few simulation models (iirc, it was markov-chain monte carlo based) on how degradation in other economies outside of the US may influence our domestic market. Instead of presenting everything in black/white like some retards trying to pump/dump, here are a few of my thoughts + take everything I say with a grain of salt. - A lot has to go wrong not only in China, but multiple other economies at once in order for the US to be affected significantly. Simulation models account for exposure, obviously. - The comment above is independent of domestic monetary / fiscal policy - No one has a crystal ball as to what may happen with China in the near future and if they pretend like they do, they're talking out of their ass - Keep in mind that bank models are extremely deficient in some respects. Coming from grad school where I like to cross validate models using k-fold cross validation with at least k=5, banks don't really do this shit for some of their models (depends on LOB, objective, etc) - The models we were shown were pre-pandemic but I still think some of their assertions hold true - I just don't want some fucking retard going HEE HEE HEE CHINA DEFAULT US IS FUKT. Maybe you're right but eat my hairy asshole - There are plenty of people here that are wayyyy smarter than me. I have 0 clue where to park my investments right now so I'd appreciate some advice + the logic behind your advice. I'm mostly sitting on cash but I put a small % of my portfolio into REITs. Gib advice ty men
Are my 10/21 10,000 LOB calls gonna print?
Texas Department of Insurance. It's over $100m in HO volume in Texas. More than 1/3 their volume. Their loss ratio is 121% - they pay $1.21 in losses for every $1 in premiums, before expenses. Home insurance is my career, 20 years in Texas. They will get market share, but don't expect an underwriting profit from a home only insurance company. You lose money on the home LOB to gain access to the account, like allstate and State farm, who lose money on HO, make it back in retirement accounts, mortgages, life insurance, etc. Also, you need to understand the reinsurance cycles and adverse selection in a hard market if you want to play this game.
1st edition LOB Blue Eyes White Dragon in nearmint has a better 5y performance than all off my stocks 😂
Anyone done any work on LOB? It's bank/VC that invests in fintech. Not my space, so I'm not familiar with the tech they're invested in. A buddy of mine is and got it on my radar. Potential spins could unlock a ton of value.
I personally like [investopedia.com](https://investopedia.com) Sometimes I'll put in "retail stocks quarter 1 2021 investopedia" and their link will pop up with some analysis of stocks in that sector. Then I go on think or swim platform, look at summary on whether or not its a good buy, scroll down and check net profit margins first than all the other financials. If things hit that box then I am golden. The first stock that I did this with made me find LOB... got in at 31.. now its 64.99.
I was unironically gonna buy a 1st ed LOB Blue Eyes with some gains
80% cash haha. Currently involved in SE and MELI outside that. Not exactly small cap but emerging market growth. Looking into LOB right now for potential Fintech spins, but not far enough into the process to make any calls there. Banking is outside my sphere of knowledge and I want to get a better understanding of the industry before digging in more on venture investments. The play there would be for value creation.
Thank you brother ape .. an LOB “Exodia, The Forbidden One” would look so nice after all this is said and done
2002 LOB 1st ed Blue Eyes White Dragon #SDK-001 Please?
I’d like a PSA 10 1st edition (LOB) Blue Eyes White Dragon pls
1st Ed. LOB Dark Magician for me.
Patiently waited for LOB to hit ATH before starting a position. Buying at the top takes strength; perseverance. FOMO buying is my red badge of courage. “Be greedy when others are fearful”. That’s me
According to the monthly update, CRSP and LOB were downgraded.
Someone smarter than me should do a DD on LOB (Live Oak Bank). Online-only bank specializing in agricultural lending. Fintech + agriculture + safe bet for higher interest rates? Low volume, decent P/E..... I sold my positions in the Jan dip, waiting for re-entry after this +12% day.
My fraught relationship with LOB (Live Oak Bank) continues..... a stock I truly believe in, yet I’ve been buying high and selling low since Nov. frick