MS

TheKingOfSwing777

Which do you work for? I mean, MS owns 49% so I sure as hell hope it's a close relationship. 

b00c

I want to see the impact of Europe ditching MS. 

teddybrehski

I prefer Google over MS as I expect employee counts to shrink and a lot of MS is based on total seats.

Effective_Bumblebee5

If I had money left, I would probably put it in Taiwan, ASML, Google, AMD, Lam, NXPI, AMAT, Amazon, Visa, Netflix, Spotify, plus Goldman, and MS ( the last two as there are big IPO’s coming 4Th quarter and I bet they get it)  These 👆 seem like the safest companies and they actually will be in business in five years. A lot of other companies, I’m questioning whether they will be here.

Original-Weekend-866

I just get it close and then rewrite it myself. Otherwise it's this 4 hour event. Copilot summarizing a MS Teams meeting is pretty cool. Must admit... but I can't figure out how to get it to work yet 🤣

Techters

I implement a lot of MS stack for businesses and their AI is garbage. Its so confusing to me how they can do some things very well and others whiff, but some of their strongest solutions they have purchased (ERP). Like I hate Fabric but it's just a combination of Azure services I like - how is that possible they messed that up? Copilot seems like it's singular focus was business rules and access calls built to be automated from Azure security so it doesn't have the freedom to "think" properly. 

Severe-Bet-8364

lol trumprx has to be the biggest joke ever they basically just list medications by name and then have a "coupon" drawn with MS paint for each medication but nothing is individualized it just says trumprx and then you're supposed to print it. Truly something only 🥭 could pull

Boheed

all of Europe realized being dependent on Microsoft is atrocious for national security reasons. They're trying to get off. France announced they're moving to native chat/videoconferencing services, Poland is gonna use open source alternatives to MS office, etc.

zeth0s

The truth is that AI is actually better at non coding task than coding... It is just an integration issue. MS copilot is useless because that's not how current AI shine. You need better tools. It is extremely good are non tech side of my job. It requires quite a lot of supervision in the technical part. In the non technical part (creating business documents, design, research, slides with reveal.js) it is so much better. Clearly you cannot use ms copilot... You need the right tools 

BattleGrown

What's booming are every dreamer indian techbros with bootcamp degrees. Don't think that those will be recurring customers. They are trying to do B2B but go check out who they are trying to sell to, and see if they are buying. I don't see that much buying. MS Copilot is having the same problem. This bubble's gonna pop soon.

nobertan

Haven’t seen Meta internally dump MS office products years back and pivot to full Google suite, they’re definitely making inroads into enterprise clients at large scales (*as well as small — intercepting that student to employee pipeline*) Google also have multi faceted uses for their capex if one project doesn’t materialize into a golden goose to justify it, vs. say, someone like Meta. Google taking a minor, but restrained dump, is just macro to me. Don’t even need to rationalize it.

LanceThunder

> I don't think chatgpt is relevant as it will prob go under. you might be right about that but the technology isn't going anywhere. its going to be sold off to the highest bidder and my bet is that google or MS is going to get it. MS probably has the better claim to it. > but how is google making any money out of me ? that is an extremely good question that makes me nervous. we said the same thing about facebook when it first launched an IPO. years later the truth came out and it was absolutely the most dystopian shit i could realistically think of at the time.

AlleyKatPr0

MS Access. God-level DB backend with bullet proof SQL. Just to remind everyone, Access was designed to replace Excel so as to ensure that data and calculations could be partitioned into relational terms. I know people Excel because of modelling and charting, but you must realise that Excel is also used in aerospace for creating aerodynamic models and, using Excel for basic (and I do mean basic) calculations...is kinda wrong. Grid based versus an actual database SQL system...there is no comparison. Side note, the amount of times someone has sat opposite me in an interview with MS OFFICE on their resume, and then I ask them to build a basic relational database, only to have them look like a deer in the headlights; astonishes them more than I. It is the fundamental glue that holds MS Office together, and most people do not even know what it is, let alone use it daily. It can literally pull data from the internet and display it, analyse it and then pimp out a content rich report.

HotTruth999

They’re good at trying to put their competition out of business and locking in enterprise customers who have no wish to remain. As soon as they can escape they run for the hills. MSFT is nothing more than an expensive China-lite borrower of other companies’ innovation. What do I mean? MSDOS was copied from a 3rd party QDOS for 50k MS networking as copied from Novell The Microsoft mouse was copied from Xerox The GUI on Windows was copied from Xerox & Apple Excel was copied from Lotus 123 Exchange was copied from Lotus Notes Word was copied from WordPerfect IE was copied from Mosaic and Netscape Windows NT was copied from Digital Equipment Corporation VAX VMS Azure was copied from AWS Xbox was copied from Sony ps Etc etc etc They haven’t got a creative bone in their body. Their lack of meaningful innovation is why they put billions into Open AI and that’s now blowing up in their face. If I owned it I’d be selling before Wall Street work out they’ve been duped.

dgkimpton

MS is in a rocky position at the moment due to the growing distrust of American software. It's not inconceivable that many EU institutions and companies are/willbe making efforts to move away from MS. If that happens alternatives will prosper and even in the US MS might begin to struggle. I wouldn't bet too heavily on MS myself, but your milage may vary. 

Puzzleheaded-Scar667

Microsoft isnt going anywhere, 90% of the systems still runs ms office and 70% are still on windows. As of now they are focussed on AI because of the buzz and all but when the AI bubble bursts MS will be one of the surviving ones because of the assets.

tell-u-wut

I think Microsoft would acquire OpenAI before letting it die - they have too much IP and too strong of an AI research team (granted some folks would jump ship). Without violating our NDA, I’ll cautiously say that the partnership between MS & OAI is stronger than it probably seems on the surface.

Pabst_Blue_Gibbon

governments are (slowly) moving off MS. France just announced that they will get rid of Teams by 2027, a German state just went fully Linux. It might take 10 years but I doubt many governments will want to be with Microsoft in the future.

WickedSensitiveCrew

GS my stock pick. MS has other levers with etrade but GS has more upside imo.

Outrageous_Tip_2133

If you are positioning to buy a stock (or multiple stocks) to benefit from the mergers & acquisition boom this yar, what would be the top picks? GS, MS, EVR, PIPR? MS seems to be the most reasonably priced based on P/E. GS seems to have ran up too much last year and probably priced in the M&A boom already? any thoughts?

Outrageous_Tip_2133

If you are positioning to buy a stock (or multiple stocks) to benefit from the mergers & acquisition boom this yar, what would be the top picks? GS, MS, EVR, PIPR? MS seems to be the most reasonably priced based on P/E. GS seems to have ran up too much last year and probably priced in the M&A boom already? any thoughts?

HaiKarate

Copilot is the official AI of GitHub, which MS owns.

YouSnuffTheBlaze

Ah yes. Saint Kilmar. The guy who entered the country illegally, was an MS-13 gang member and was charged with transporting illegal immigrants for monetary gain

4Yk9gop

Europe has MS Windows at home? I think not.

mausmani2494

The team and other MS products are tightly coupled. They literally have no true competition at the enterprise level which can offer what they have. Are there solutions? Yes. But no one wants to manage all different vendors separately and then worrying about whether they are compatible with each other or not.

Responsible-Pitch996

I don't think anyone cares what openAI's valuation is right now, OpenAi are in a really tight spot and unlikely to get out of it. There's a reason Jensen just walked back his investment commitments and why MS is strategically distancing. It's a cancer that result in negative price action for MS in the short term (and the entire market). Long term they will be ok.

missprincesscarolyn

Yes! Same! I was literally just telling a friend the other day about how I consider it to be an economy barometer. I feel so bad because so many of these kids are just miserable. I shop at Walmart because I’m disabled by Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and on a fixed income. If I do grocery pickup and if funds allow, I’ll periodically give small gift cards to whoever’s putting my groceries in my trunk for me. People are so nasty and cruel. One time I went to pick up my groceries and it was taking a while. I don’t know if they were short staffed, or what was going on, but two separate Karens snapped at them and were really, truly rude. I apologized on their behalf to the 20-something guy who unloaded my stuff for me. They get paid a pittance, many are on food stamps and Medicaid. Walmart grocery pickup isn’t a white glove service, gtf outta here with that bullshit.

AgentStockey

MS Paint requires an RTX 5090 at minimum.

waffles2go2

lol, who will take over enterprise computing? Apple, a leaky inefficient capital intensive AI company? MS has other good BUs and a ton of cash and a footprint that’s hard to dislodge. Did you miss that in your analysis?

waffles2go2

Lack of revenue vs debt and valuation. The best “scale”killer app is Claude coding RN and MS can buy almost anyone’s model or get close + GitHub and enterprise infrastructure…

Responsible-Pitch996

If OpenAI don't get some funding from the UAE soon it's all about to fall in a heap and since they account for half of Microsoft's cloud backlog and MS is so heavily on the AI bandwagon (even though everyone hates copilot and is hating on windows stability) I think there is still a reasonable chance of an even greater pull back..

ChaseballBat

I asked copilot how to integrate a product into my MS Team team, it told me to 'download product app' in teams and took a dozen paragraphs to explain how to add it through the app store. It didn't exist, like genuinely hallucinated an app to 'solvey problem'. So then I ask if I can integrate and access through the web app on teams. It says yes then gives me a dozen unnessesary paragraphs on how to add a website to a teams channel. Guess what, you can't access that website through a teams channel it opens up a separate browser. Not what I asked or what it said it could do... This is copilot run off GPT, shit is supposed to know how office 365 works, it's literally built into it. Instead I got Yapbot 360 that just lied to my face and gas lit me into solution through fields and field of text. Literally like 2000 words and I only asked it 3 sentences. What a waste of electricity.

randomwalker2016

Yup good luck vibing MS windows

Equivalent_Dimension

Oh god. How will I ever live without Facebook, Instagram and Netflix? Or MS for that matter. Like most people, I refuse to pay an annual subscription for Office when I can use Open Office for Free. And if Windows gets too pricey, I'll start using Ubuntu. As for NVIDIA, it's not the only chip maker, and nobody with a brain is going to let themselves become dependent on AI now that the enshittification process has become so widely documented. Why would we get dependent on AI tools? So companies can get us all hooked for free or cheap, transition us off our existing tools and then raise the price prohibitively so that we either give up our career or trade our first born to keep it going? Nah.

LB-Sand

alex karp the new ceo of MS? the boot licking nazi loving war mongering part time drug addict?

Different_Career1009

Just tell your guys to stop shorting MS thanks.

kenneth_dart

I wonder if their customer base might shrink in the future. Foreign govts are already reducing their reliance on MS and other US tech providers due to concerns over "digital sovereignty" and the foreign policy posture of the Trump administration. The fear that US tech giants could be compelled by the US govt to cut off access to services is a major driver leading to EU alternatives.

MagicWishMonkey

Are they buying Copilot specifically or are they buying other MS produts where it's bundled?

spencerAF

Could someone please do one of MS's tweets for right now?

daytripjim

Several giant tech companies joined the massive rush to get a commanding position in AI. Unfortunately, turning their time and investment into profitable services is going to take longer and cost more than they imagined. Adding to the problem is that Claude is making it easier than ever to create new software programs, and it's possible that large software companies like MS and Adobe could lose market share to new AI-created programs. So MS is getting squeezed. My personal view is that MS has a large moat and many customers will be reluctant to change software without a compelling use or price. The company isn't going broke, but its profitability and the stock price could suffer. Time will tell.

IcedNuggets

-90% on MS calls.

XRayZen84

Office is Obsoleted by what? I run some Linux and libre/OpenOffice at home but corporate America is 99.9% MS Office IMHO

XRayZen84

I agree with all these comments. However having worked in corporate America for far to long, MS is still way more embedded than Apple or anyone else. Having billions of Win11 installs floating around is not going away overnight

mustachechap

>The only reason why it's adoption has been "skyrocketing" is because it's been integrated into everything that microsoft owns. That's enough of a reason for me to own the stock. My company (which is massive) just switched from google to MS and we are starting to give people co-pilot licenses. Everyone I know uses Microsoft at work, and it's only a matter of time before more and more people are given co-pilot licenses.

TorpedoAway

Wall Street promotes these kind of investment themes that sound reasonable or even smart to ordinary investors, but prove to be wrong over time. Last year it was every jackass on every business news show talking about how Google was finished because AI was killing search. Now it’s software. Service Now has lost a lot of market cap because of this AI is killing software theme. It’s just BS. Sure, some one-dimensional basic software tools will probably be replaced by AI but a big enterprise software product by a big company like Service Now will likely only benefit from AI. This is especially true for Microsoft which is being traded down because it’s both an AI company and a software company. MS office is universally used in corporate environments and AI will have no measurable impact on that and Microsoft AI investment is no more likely to fail than AI investments by any of the others.

Total_Schedule591

Good to know, thanks for that. It's not surprising seeing MS office programs come free with windows then transitions to a premium pay program in newer versions

Outrageous_Tip_2133

Or a lot of private equity stocks like APO, KKR, etc. Or Investment banking stocks like GS, MS, etc. Or just boring bank stocks like JPM,, WFC. While Mag 7 and tech has been hyped up, a lot of financial stocks have done really well since Covid and outperformed most tech names except NVDA.

NightHawkFliesSolo

Sir, this is a Wendy's and I'm going to ask you to leave. In all seriousness though, I'm invested in a total of 4 low cost index funds. A small fraction of those have leaders that are involved in that pizza ring so not much I can do about it investing wise besides sell those 4 ETFs then invest in 800 individual stocks. Start an S&P500minus10 ETF and perhaps I would buy it. I already don't own a Tesla and I gave up MS Windows many years ago so those guys aren't getting my money in the first place with their products. Wouldn't be sad to see those involved get the gallows.

CategoryOnly2022

Adobe is like MS office much in use

KMI_Dragon_Knight

MUFG hasn't transformed yet. But it will. Majority owner of MSCI, and look at how hard MSCI, EEM indexes and MS are popping up.

Proof-Necessary-5201

Nadella himself as CEO is afraid AI might destroy his company and you're here being confident. If AI fails, MS is in deep trouble.

Opposite_Engine_6776

MS Teams was laggy for me on a conference call. Puts on MSFT.

vba7

Why? Copilot is pushed into all MS products I think people here are programmers or generic chatgpt users, when the most users are the office drones... who use MS office

Historical-Fun-2536

Just get me out of some danger so I can trim some beta and buy some MARUF and GE and MS and chill.

Zenin

2.25 billion is a rounding error with the stakes involved and 3 years flies by pretty quick. They don't need to be completely drained to start a run and likely won't need to get anywhere close. The waters just need to be chummed long enough to start the frenzy where everyone sees the iceberg coming and starts to jump off in a panic before it hits. On the surface it seems like such a big play would take a massive amount of power to hold BTC down so far for so long and that'd be correct. However, that's also assuming such a play just started with BTC high. What if this is just phase 2 of a much larger and longer play? What if this play really started somewhere in 2022-24 when the price had dumped post-covid? Instead of using their power to hold prices down, what if they instead used it earlier to drive prices *up?* They'd certainly make money on the way (everything in crypto is an open grift after all), but more to the point the upwards support would be artificial, only they'd know it and only they'd really control it. All you need to do then is keep your support pressure going long enough for a company like MS to get in over their skies by increasing their average via buys of inflated coin. Once you've got them trapped hanging off a cliff, you simply stop your upwards price pressure gambit and let the pieces fall all on their own. This is all conjecture of course. I'm just some random dude who's probably just an AI bot spamming your socials. But big if true, right? ;)

Rin-Tohsaka-is-hot

I agree, *if* I was going to read the FT I would absolutely pay for it, it's legitimately high quality journalism. But OP could have linked any source, they chose this one. Sout China Morning Post has a similar article on the exact same subject he could have linked that can be read for free:https://www.scmp.com/?_gl=1*dk8ldc*_ga*YW1wLXpLYkUxYzNaT1BQbHNramJ3ME1BRGlZMnhGdzdnanMzWDRqeEIxbnJtRlpLVmUzeTJnUU44dUpRNGdCb3BtRzc.*_ga_VD9LCVW2ZV*MTc2OTk3MDM5MS4xLjAuMTc2OTk3MDQxNS4wLjAuMA..

AllGasNoBrakes420

G Suite is way worse than MS Office. Hate the company all you want but the office suite is a joy to work with. Imagine having to work with your spreadsheets in a browser. Google is the reason kids these days don't understand what a filesystem is.

paq12x

Buy the stock of the product that you use everyday. That’s how I bought Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, FB and now Reddit (bought last week, 1000 shares when it dropped to 186 or so). When people said “FB is for boomers, no one I know uses FB” and the price was less than $150, I bought. When people said Google keeps getting “regulated” and was about to get broke up, I bought. When they thought Nvidia was a one trick pony and the price was 130 (pre split), I bought. When AMD was an “automatic money destroyer”, I bought. Recently, when MS was “microflop”, I bought. See you next year when Reddit is back in the mid 200s.

super3way

I dunno how MS will do. But I’ve been around long enough to hear crypto and bitcoin pronounced dead a bunch of times and it always ends up going higher. Maybe eventually it doesn’t but I’d guess it will again and this is just another cycle…. Bitcoin price down, media goes nuts saying it’s over, then it rallied to a new high.

SamWest98

\> MS needs to gain the market share of 3 Salesforce's sounds pretty doable tbh

mailwasnotforwarded

What I don't understand is Tesla's approach to all of this. When big tech companies like Amazon/Google forms a new division or sector they will sometimes split it from their parent company. Then they will do fund raising independantly for it to build it up. Why is Tesla doing this weird approach by deleting their main company and replacing it all with a whole new sector. To cancel MS/MX just to pivot into making robots is such a weird move. Surely it would be cheaper for them to build a new factory right next to it or in another area. To try and deconstruct and reconstruct a new building would just cost as much money... I don't understand these moves... Something fishy is going on.

_BreakingGood_

I feel like surely there will be a point where companies reach their trillions of dollars valuations and it's just not realistic for them to get 20% YoY growth compared to the S&P. Like, MS needs to gain the market share of 6 Salesforce's need year, to match a 20% S&P.

SundayFoodBall

Hmm.....so buy more bitcoin? It must be a great deal now for MS to buy more

Zenin

Yep. And likely they're obligated to pay their preferred series dividends before their loan obligations (I don't know this, just guessing) which would make such loans even more wildly risky than they already are. Think of it from the lender's perspective: Why in the world would you lend money to MicroStrategy that only gets paid back at all if Bitcoin Price Go Up rather than simply buying Bitcoin directly? The answer is that lenders wouldn't which is the entire reason they instead sold/sell preferred shares with attached royalty financing arrangements: Instead of an 8% return on my "loan" that can be repaid, the ~~lender~~ preferred investor is guaranteed 8% return *forever*. -Although if the stock price tanks to $0 then so does their 8%, so there's that, but as a preferred shareholder they also get first crack at the coin reserves liquidation in that event. Basically the only way MicroStrategy could get anyone on board with this insane scheme is by promising them stupidly huge returns no matter what. In truth MS makes junk bonds look like AAAA rated assets. And when it all falls down...the grift is big enough to very likely take the entire coin market down with it, at least for a time. Or the market somehow reverses, Bitcoin Go Up comes back, and MS makes a fortune. Who knows? Oh...yah...that's right...the whales gaming this whole thing out know *exactly* if, when, and how this will or won't go down. But you and I, lol no idea.

Zenin

If the price isn't going up, how are you getting cash yield out of it? They could try and sell options against their holdings, but that is likely to have nasty side effects no matter which ways you try and hedge it. The cost per coin really isn't the problem, USD cash reserves/flow is. Over the medium and long term they need more flow coming in than going out and with their entire asset basket filled with bitcoin they don't have a lot of options. Really the only thing they can do is attract more new investment, but given the risk likely the only way to do that is by issuing even *more* preferred shares and thus digging an even deeper dividend hole they can't ever dig themselves out of. -There is no exit...they're just a forever obligation...it's not a loan, it's a cumulative dividend rate per share. Although I guess in theory they could tank their own stock price enough to make that % per share dividend mean very little....kind of like the Trump regime is trying to do with the USD value and Fed debt.... We're not kidding when we say their *entire* business model is based on the theory that Bitcoin Go Up because Bitcoin Go Up. Keep in mind that *most* cryptocoin schemes are based on Bitcoin Is *Volatile*; they play the swings, so they can make money in any market. MicroStrategy doesn't really play the swings, they only buffer some cash to ride them out. The actual MS play is just Bitcoin Go UP and Go Up a lot over the long term. It's a 1,000% bull market play that implodes if it faces a crypto winter.

Zenin

Profit or loss on their bitcoin holdings, they have to set the better part of a billion dollars *every year* year on fire just to meet their obligations. When bitcoin price is rising they simply sell more shares (dilution) to cover those obligations and if anything is left over, buy more bitcoin. But when the price goes lower than their average....they can't really sell more shares as buyers would be paying a premium to proxy buy bitcoin and they can just buy bitcoin directly. If they tried anyway they'd be tanking the stock price until it was low enough their cap was once again under their coin holdings. So they won't sell stock. Instead they'll pay from their cash reserves hoping to ride out the price dip. That works, they've done it a few times, but only if the dip is short lived enough to not run out of cash reserves. If however...that dip blow their average lasts long enough to drain their reserves, they only have two options: Find more massive idiots willing to shovel their cash onto MS's bonfire or much more realistically, start selling their coin to cover their obligations. Once *that* happens the downward price pressure increases further, forcing MS to sell even faster, etc, and that gets mixed in with all the high margin investors getting liquidated, etc, and it's extremely likely bitcoin price will be in freefall. Now "someone" will make an absolute killing if/when that happens by being ready to catch that gigantic falling knife, but it sure as hell won't be MicroStrategy. It'll probably be Barron Trump backed by middle east blood money.

Got_Engineers

Vanguard owns ~9% total ownership. Capital international investors 5%, blackrock 5%, MS, state street and than it falls off. These guys own like 35% of Master lol. They are going to get owned thats like $11 billion in share value. It’s largest days of volume we’re up at a price of like $300 +

Wonko-D-Sane

When you get fed up with dependency hell, BSD is there for you. It is like a Mac, but less walled garden and a little more power hungry. I had FreeBSD jails in 2004, cute that all these kids got excited about their docker and para-v containers recently. It really feels like people just don't know what computers are for and MS takes a big advantage under the guise of ease of use. And everyone keeps re-inventing the same wheel that's already been turning for years. Now they are in my cables with their stupid ARM processors everywhere figuring out how thick the wires on the USB-C cable are and if the source and sink are allowed to talk to each other. I am getting too old for this shit and I am a millenial ffs.

mindfungus

But before his departure, he left some of the virus around, and it laid there, dormant within the DNA of the company, until this news broke, and now under stress, it may erupt, and now MS can’t kiss anyone

JaxonRaxonTaxon

It was never a partnership. It was a royalty deal to pay MS for using their AI in their robots.

BuyHUMBL

Americans who allow other Americans to be slaughtered by vicious illegal MS13 gang members or other dangerous immigrants need to have a family member of their own slaughtered too for a fucking wake up call!!! You people make me sick. Over 30 young American woman and men have been murdered by illegals, yet it never makes it to the MSM!! SMH… only this ICE BS does. MSM and George Soros have paid and weaponize organized protests which are getting people killed. The blood is on their hands!!

PastaPandaSimon

I'm at the outskirts of the company, and there are three concerning things about Microsoft I well pondered on that in the end made me sell my stock before the earnings: 1 Leadership change. Due to the changes in direction and signals coming from them in the brief time since they took charge, I have no faith in this new Leadership Team. 2 Broadly sweeping return to office that sees them reverse a hugely beneficial policy that leads them to actively bleed their best talent. Fyi, Microsoft benefitted massively from the Google and Apple RTOs, with their "work from anywhere" guarantees in place since 2020. Those are the people behind significant product and revenue improvements in the recent years at Microsoft. Even Edge got good as a good chunk of the Chrome and Safari teams moved to Microsoft as the Edge team was fully remote. Once new MS leadership took charge, the first order of operations was to start talking AI and cutting employment numbers, and so they announced a reversal and a RTO. This further eroded my trust in their new leadership. The weekly Team meetings now supposedly spend a chunk of time talking about departures of the most experienced folks who tend to have options, and who were the reasons why the last few years were wildly profitable for Microsoft. 3 Their disproportionate ties to the success of OpenAI, which does not have a viable path towards monetization that would pay them back for their massive investments. But the main red flag to me are the Leadership and direction changes away from what made them so much money. It's a common sentiment within Microsoft. The unpopular or risky decisions make me doubt that they remain as successful as they were, aka I doubt 2026 and 2027 are as good as 2025 was for them. And in the end, when making stock decisions, they are future-facing.

ValuableOven734

I'm familiar enough with MS's history. They have some good stuff and some of them are good money makers, but MS has never quite been at the front of creativity and pushing the envelope. MS is more about monopolizing things, but that is the name of the game.

ValuableOven734

So they have a few actually good hits? MS is generally a better second mover.

bluuuuurn

MS and Amazon don't have their own competitive models to use, so funding OpenAI helps power their own offerings--since they don't want to use Gemini for obvious reasons. Oracle? Fuck if I know, Sam Altman is amazing at convincing idiot executives that his company is worth it based on hopes and dreams...

MrBlack1111

MS growth is mostly OpenAI circular financing. Too much of dependency on OpenAI is making investors uncomfortable.

One-Peace55

Innovation isn't always about the pure parthenogenesis of an idea. Excel had the first intelligent recalculation engine. Windows 95 had the first task bar, searching and other features that every other OS inherited for the next three decades and counting. Active Directory which had already become industry standard by the time Azure was created, was the first user-directory management service to be integrated WITH the cloud provider (azure) thereby merging on-prem and cloud environments into one, as opposed to relying on networking hacks. AWS (the pioneer of the cloud) copied that from Microsoft later with AWS outposts. So "MS has never been that good at creativity and innovation" isn't actually true. And this is coming from a massive microsoft hater by the way.

tom-slacker

META is up 10% so no...........AI hopium is still around....just not with MS.

Dal-Thrax

The fun bit is you can have a discussion with AI about the future of MS’s AI investment. Realizing you’re doing this provides some perspective on the situation.

nicolas_06

how it’s more strategic than the 27% that MS has ? It did’t cost them far less 13B, but it now worth like 135B.

Craptcha

1. Azure growth is slowing because businesses are optimizing their « legacy » lift and shift infrastructures and leaning more on Microsoft 365 and SaaS applications. Also is an economic downturn large digital transformation projects are slowing down or getting axed - these fuel a lot of Azure consumption. 2. Exploding capex could mean datacenter infrastructure costs for AI are enormous and could grind margins or slow growth moving forward. 3. Doesn’t matter, any model that makes huge leaps is likely to get caught up quickly by others. MS is in a very privileged position because their AI sits « inside » your existing org security perimeter.

SpongEWorTHiebOb

EPS grew 24% year over year. Thats amazing for a company this large. I listened to the call and analysts were focused on the backlog being 45% Open AI. MS countered by saying that concentration is lower than all the other hyper scalers in regard to each of their largest customer. Another point mentioned is that Microsoft’s average duration for a customer contract is 2.5 years at this time but they have assigned a useful life of 6 years to the GPU servers. MS countered that they can’t meet demand at this time and that if some customers don’t renew they don’t see an issue with signing up new customers. The Azure growth slowed because the data centers and GPU servers take time to build and stack up and are in tight supply. They also have allocated GPU resources to other business segments (copilot 365, gaming and R&D) and that seems to have poorly received. I bought some more shares at $431 which equates to a TTM PE of 29. Multiple on fiscal year end 6-30–2026 estimated average earnings is only 25. It looks like a bargain. I always buy more when it slips below a 30 TTM PE. I think the analysts are getting very deep in the weeds on some of their concerns. I have another GTC order at a limit price of $385 and another larger one at $340. I have no issue going balls deep into the millionaire maker.

stanbright

On top of that, Microsoft has a bit chunk of business with EU governments, and Trump managed to persuade the EU gov that they should ditch US dependence. A lot of governments around Europe have put moving to Linux on the table. That will not happen overnight, of course, yet MS seems to be the biggest tech looser from Trump's "deals".

HotTruth999

MSFT is nothing more than an expensive China-lite thief of other companies’ innovation. They’ve just run out of shit to copy. What do I mean? MSDOS was copied from a 3rd party QDOS for 50k MS networking as copied from Novell The Microsoft mouse was copied from Xerox The GUI on Windows was copied from Xerox & Apple Excel was copied from Lotus 123 Exchange was copied from Lotus Notes Word was copied from WordPerfect iE was copied from Mosaic and Netscape Azure was copied from AWS Xbox was copied from Sony ps Etc etc etc They haven’t got a creative bone in their body. They have consistently used their position to try to put the competition out of business. Their lack of meaningful innovation is why they put billions into Open AI and that’s now blowing up in their face. This donkey is on a slow road into oblivion. Sell before the idiots on Wall Street work out they’ve been duped for decades.

ReasonableBrother448

Those datacenters will be needed come AI or not. Maybe they overgrow but in tech overdoing something is much better than underdoing. MS does not spend a whole lot of time in PE27 area.

ValuableOven734

MS has never been that good at creativity and innovation. What they are good at is being a cut throat second mover. They were not the first to make a spreadsheet or word processor, nor did they make the first GUI desktop. Did you remember how their name became big during the pandemic and their purchase of Skype was super clutch? Capitalism is about doing everything for the most profit and MS is good at that game.

unclefire

Like the old MS office thingy? lol

Battleneter

Zoom out, MS is largely flat over the last 5 days, and up 1% over 1 month, not much to see here.

superberr

Nah, markets drastically overvalued Microsoft and Azure. Everyone thought MS was going to be the next big thing in cloud computing eclipsing GCP and AWS not realizing that the company itself wasn’t the innovator, it was a lucky early investment in openAI. It worked as long as openAI was in the lead. But anyone with a bit of in-depth knowledge on how modern AI works knows these things: 1. It was invented at Google who gave the secret sauce away for free, not openAI or MS. OpenAI was first to market. 2. As a result, there was no moat for anyone. Everyone can throw compute+data at the general architecture and release models competitive with each other. 3. So now you see multiple models from Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, even Amazon and Chinese models all catching up. The top model benchmarks are so close it’s splitting hairs. Basically 1-4% difference between each other. 4. With no inherent model advantage, it is now a race to the bottom unless there’s a massive breakthrough: Who can provide these models the cheapest? 5. It’s now an operations and chip war, not a model innovation war. Achieving the best price to performance ratio balancing chips, power and cooling constraints is the next most. 6. Nvidia has the strongest chips but also the most expensive. Google and Amazon have far more efficient chips for serving most workloads. MS doesn’t really have a great chip of their own. So now they’re actually at the bottom of the AI race they once led. 7. Who can provide these best price/performance ratio 1-3 years from now? That’s the winner. IMO it’s not going to be one company, market share will be split between all of them, but I do feel MS is already too far behind to the point where they come out as the losers.

BellacosePlayer

Not bad. Azure was slightly under expectations and foreign governments are looking to pull out because of security concerns. Probably a wild overreaction, nobody's poised to take out MS in the markets they dominate, and I can guarantee most of the projects to move systems off of MS won't be done by the time 🥭 is gone

sortahere5

Imagine its all driven to the cloud. Now you have a dumb terminal that can be given any GUI that looks good. Software today is going to be affected by cloud computing being pushed hard, even if AI fails to impress. This industry is due for a shakeup and it won't be pretty. For all we know, MS envisions AI as the OS of the future but are relying on OpenAI and using that as a way to disguise the R&D costs. But LLM aint going to cut it and generative is meh.

jimsmisc

I use linux every day of my life and I agree that this is a bonkers take. Imagine telling a company of 10,000 people they're all switching to LibreOffice. It's pretty much MS Office '97.

Important_Agency07

I agree MS is my second biggest holding. Do I think it’s a massive reaction? Maybe a bit but I understand market reaction. It might not also just be earnings sell off broader market is taking a dive. Could be gov shutdown, dollar/yen, and other things.

gdkod

Well, first the companies will start with deflecting from MS365 to LibreOffice, Onlyoffice etc. Then they’ll move to Linux as OS, which is mature enough already.

LaughSwimming4518

And most people hate it... A common sentiment is that majority of users are overwhelmed with AI presence everywhere and getting sick of it. Not to mention concerns that AI is learning from what users create themselves with MS Office.

gdkod

With the current US diplomacy, more companies in the EU will deflect from MS to their alternatives. It’s going to be a fine day.

Important_Agency07

MS owns 49% of OpenAI and OpenAI makes 45% of MS RPO. Along with what you said. Do I think it warrants a 10% drop? Maybe not but again market seems isn’t convinced.

Important_Agency07

I’m just gonna copy paste what I wrote elsewhere on this thread. Some of it isn’t what you are asking but left it in there anyway 1. ⁠You mention tech world but don’t bring up the nuance of what Nvidia is offering and what MS is offering? There are only a handful of companies who can meaningfully buy GPUs because data centers are such a cap intensive operation or use it to develop models/products bc again very expensive. It makes sense that only handful of companies make Nvidia’s customer concentration and they are all fighting tooth and nail. MS offers compute. Any person with a laptop can host their stuff on Azure. The customer market is massive esp on commercial side. 2. Nvidia customers have the financial strength to follow through on their obligations. They are trillion dollar companies with billions in profit. OpenAI is not - it constantly needs funding and is trying its best to get away from MS. 3. OpenAI doesn’t have profit. Paying MS doesn’t mean it has profit. Not sure how you could possibly derive that? 4. MS owns 49% of OpenAI. OpenAI makes up 45% of MS RPO. I think I don’t need to explain why the market is concerned about that.

Important_Agency07

1. You mention tech world but don’t bring up the nuance of what Nvidia is offering and what MS is offering? There are only a handful of companies who can meaningfully buy GPUs because data centers are such a cap intensive operation or use it to develop models/products bc again very expensive. It makes sense that only handful of companies make Nvidia’s customer concentration and they are all fighting tooth and nail. MS offers compute. Any person with a laptop can host their stuff on Azure. The customer market is massive esp on commercial side. 2. Nvidia customers have the financial strength to follow through on their obligations. They are trillion dollar companies with billions in profit. OpenAI is not - it constantly needs funding and is trying its best to get away from MS. 3. OpenAI doesn’t have profit. Paying MS doesn’t mean it has profit. Not sure how you could possibly derive that? 4. MS owns 49% of OpenAI. OpenAI makes up 45% of MS RPO. I think I don’t need to explain why the market is concerned about that.

Fluffy_Charity_2732

You must not know shit about enterprise IT culture, huh?  MS is like a dead end marriage right now and we are all looking to safeguard our companies from their current roadmap of slop dogshit.