MS

EscapedFromArea51

Just drop him in there with MS Paint. What are they going to do, stop you from saving the image in MS Paint? (Are they? At this point, I can’t tell for sure.)

Snoo_16113

Curious on your thesis, do you believe in fundamentals, they are coming out with HAMR. Analyst ratings all suggest stock is undervalued, esp MS analyst who came out after capitulation with a rating of 1145 on STX

drytexterfinalboss

I read somewhere they are taking so long to count votes in MS because they have to say "Mississippi" after each number 🤌😂

cuteman

> One of these is the real price of an old GPU Microsoft is a bit different than most companies so I don't think MS specs are necessarily indicative of the broader market when tons of companies can't get the resources they need. MS just happens to have more options than most

PassableForAWombat

They’re MS/OpenAI’s debt bags currently.

Ok_Frosting_7376

MS just fucked oracle

PM_ME_YOUR_CLAVIER

I don't know if we even have to go that far - if Microsoft/Amazon/Google fully switches in-house and MS just continues to include basic copilot as a 365 feature that uses whatever they developed the frontier labs are cooked. Then there's maybe like a "pro" version for power-users. Then, the next tier of users who are more technical will probably switch to locally run models. *Then,* at the fringe, you probably have people who are willing to pay for frontier AI models.

takemy_oxfordcomma

Not to mention the water. You usually need access to some kind of municipal water system given the amount that these hyperscale data centers use. And the tax revenue and jobs (once construction is finished) are pretty minimal. There’s also noise and, if they are generating power on site with fossil fuels like Elon is doing with his illegal gas turbines at his site in TN/MS, there’s also hella pollution. There’s a reason that like 75% of Americans across all political parties don’t want data centers near them. People have realized the downsides extremely outweigh the upsides. And that’s before you get into the fact that most people also don’t really see the upside in AI that will steal their job and/or destroy civilization while making the handful of tech oligarch billionaires even more obscenely rich at our expense.

FuckingJPMAlgos

MS in Mech engg, AI is not eating my job. Its that the economy is fucked.

FuckingJPMAlgos

If I could not get a job even having a MS in Mech Engg then what else I got to do? Thankfully my loans are all paid for.

blny99

Etrade was great many years ago but declined in service at some point. Not sure if becoming part of Morgan Stanley improved this. I closed my etrade just as MS was taking over, never got to see if they improved things at all, but Etrade was unresponsive for service when I closed my account.

shiny0metal0ass

I think it was MS at one point but I think they sold and I lost track

dalligogle

How big the wave was definitely wasn't priced in, hardly anyone thought Dems would win KS, TX, SC and probably MS, that's an historic loss for Republicans.

Requirement_Fluid

Open AI and Anthropic IP will end up being owned by the likes of Google, Amazon, MS, Meta, Nvidia and AMD

music_is_gud

MS taking forever to declare coz they have to say "Mississippi" every time they count a number :happy:

modder9

Don’t worry, there’s still room to go to gapplebees again when they call MS and AK.

lemurtowne

Bullish. Still at the whim of supplier reliability, though. They had a delay on the MS data center but they're spinning it as a matter of suppliers. They're also expanding their capex, but claim it's already funded by booked commitments.

scotty_dont

Republicans got destroyed in the elections. Polling shows that data centres were a significant driver; people are either unhappy about them being railroaded into their communities, or are worried that they will be in the near future. While data centers are not literally Hitler (sorry reddit), having a giant noisy building belching bad air from gas turbines and diesel generators right next to a residential area is a terrible idea. So... the industry fucked up and now it is going to experience the backlash. Its not a matter of if, its a matter of when and how hard. For a short-term focused stock market that is not a good thing. The clearest losers are the companies making the "stuff" that goes in data centers, because any slowdown in the rollout of new buildings that hold their stuff means that they will sell less stuff. Their valuation was based on estimates of what those sales are going to be, and all those projections just got a massive unknown factor added to them. A second big loser are the neoclouds. These companies are running a play to turn debt into compute, under the simple assumption that fastest wins. Well their maths on speed of deployment just got wrecked, so the uncertainties over their business model (which were already under stress) just got worse. Finally you've got the traditional cloud (Amazon, MS, Google). Its kiiiinda mixed for them. Their downside is not as big as the neoclouds due to being healthy businesses that can support their capex. Their return on investment is possibly helped by a slowdown, since slowing down new deployments means the value of their existing assets go up, but they are still going to feel the pain of whatever government response is coming.

jamminstein

Yes, this is obvious, but likely the only contentious seats in the Senate will be MS and AK, so you are really talking about 54 Dem senators at a minimum and up to a potential of 56.

Primedirector3

4, dems will win the MS one

Samjabr

I dont disagree. But I tried to do some deep dives with claude last night - It will be apain in the ass, but here are the counters to SPCX having issues: \- Almost all moratoriums exempt already under construction projects that have been permitted, otherwise it's an easy lawsuit, and the state governments cant afford the billions it would cost. \- Mississippi and Tennessee are still very Musk friendly. He could pivot there. Both are R governors. \- Starbase is its own city. So, no city issues there. \- Texas Senate is GOP 12/19 - So, any legislation the house passes would get bitch slapped \- Musk employs thousand of trades in TX, TN, MS - we're talking construction guys, HVAC, etc. Firing all of them with moratoriums would be cutting your nose off to spite your face and would not go well. States will prob take away all subsidies and tax breaks for data centers. But I think SPCX got around $40 million total in tax incentives. Literally a rounding error. There are some other things claude listed, but these are the biggies.

Beautiful_Fold_3539

Democratic victories in state elections, particularly in Texas, could lead to tighter data center restrictions and project delays, though the broader AI cycle is expected to remain the same. According to MS.

Django117

Likely not. Everyone understood that the ai bubble was going to pop and it has always been a question of when and what the damage will be to the rest of the economy. The recent IPOs and debt games played by the banks have been a way to try and offload a lot of the risk and give themselves a cushion for this crash. The reality is that the weakest part in this whole link, the data centers, have all realized that the game of musical chairs is over now that there going to be adults in the room again in January, which has caused them to freak out and panic sell. The question as to whether or not this is 2008 levels of shit show is yet to be seen. Back in the summer, a study by the Nikkei index estimated that there was about 1.65 trillion dollars in debt being hidden from balance sheets amongst the 5 big tech companies in the US (Amazon, Google, MS, Meta, and Oracle) wrapped up in data centers, GPUs, etc. the question is how those debts have been packaged and distributed throughout the market. In 2008, it was the CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) that caused the crash because they wrapped high risk loans into packages with good loans to make the CDOs seem less risky. Ultimately that caused broad exposure to the crash when the housing crisis hit and so many people were unable to pay the mortgages. The question now is why games has Wall Street played and how much they spread the loans across the broader market. That will affect many of the index funds, pensions, and 401ks if they have been able to smear it around the market. TL;DR: It’s a question of how much their debt has been put into the broader market and how many banks, index funds, pensions, and 401ks are at risk. If the exposure is limited, then only those companies associated with the AI bubble will suffer and investments will move into other areas of the market.

ryallen23

I’ve been wanting MS shares for a while so today I sold a $175 put for two weeks out

Nickeless

Not trying to make a political discussion here, but people did vote against data centers in like 40 out of 40 opportunities on ballots. And Texas and Kansas and SC and probably MS just turned blue. Kansas for the first time in 100 years and Texas by a massive margin. Maybe nothing changes from this regulation wise, but maybe it does. Also AI is a massive bubble anyway

aemus001

Becuase i sunk thousands into an MS-A2 9955HX 96GB nd all i csn run are some regarded models

cccuriousmonkey

Computer capacity is in shortage and demand will continue to increase. Not only AI itself but compute overall. MS is short capacity, AWS is sold out, meta is short, Google not sure (did not check but probably too). So it’s a bull case and matter of execution.

CD274

MS widening wow

music_is_gud

Speaking of Nov 3, why TF have they *still* not declared MS and AK :derp:

dreggers

France, Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Albania and many others. But sure, keep watching MS NOW and pretend like Europe is all rainbows and butterflies

Select_Order_1478

it's impossible. I use VS code, I can plug in any AI into it, it's a seamless process for a couple years boss was paying for MS Copilot, I used copilot, today boss pays for Claude, I use Claude. the switch takes zero effort all LLMs have the same transformer architecture and work the same way btw most skills out there provide zero value.

music_is_gud

Keep an eye on MS tho 👀 :dance:

Valkyrie_Skuld

I think I'm gonna give up on watching MS they gave up and just quit I swear

Valkyrie_Skuld

Imagine being the one dude in MS who didn't vote watching the results

Valkyrie_Skuld

You guys staying up to see what MS is doing?

Valkyrie_Skuld

literally MS is nearly tied

CD274

Might flip MS too

MyCactusTeacher

lmao 28 vote diff in MS

Valkyrie_Skuld

They're like tied as fuck in MS

Valkyrie_Skuld

is MS really gonna ruin the whole thing

music_is_gud

Aight MS and AK now pls

version-two

Oh shit.. blue up by 38 in MS. I’m gonna have to give away that house aren’t I…

Super_Highway_3405

You know you fucked shit up when a black democrat may take a senate seat in MS.

version-two

If MS goes blue, I’ll give Paul Robert one of my houses. Mind blown. And this feeling like a simulation

Who_is_Your_Zaddy

Even MS getting some blue chew

CD274

MS senate would be blue if a third party candidate wasn't there

CD274

Did you see how MS senate is

CD274

Wait MS senate seat is in play

DoYouKnowBillBrasky

Data centers will likely move to republican states. Look for states like LA, MS, AR, AL to benefit

julian_jakobi

$BLGO https://www.linkedin.com/posts/clyramedical\_the-future-of-wound-care-is-here-%F0%9D%97%A9%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%96%F0%9D%97%9F%F0%9D%97%AC%F0%9D%97%A5-activity-7523426340675551232-5\_MS?utm\_medium=ios\_app\&rcm=ACoAAAWbdIoB\_62B08EPtNuLdnKNt7kY2jjABwk\&utm\_source=social\_share\_video\_v2\&utm\_campaign=share\_via

Hawxe

Both linux and macos operate on unix subsystems which are way better than what MS has developed inhouse. Neither are bloated with adware like windows is and Apple laptops run on significantly better chips than laptops that come pre-installed with windows.

ericcle27

What do you identify as money making ai? According to financials that’s not Anthropic or OpenAI or MS or CoreWeave or Google… Nvidia but only if they’re much much much smaller and stop funding buildouts? RAM producers?

dingdongler55

Technically MS and google had no moat either. It's all about adoption. MSFT and google are late to the game. I am using claude to output all kinds of active data from spreadsheets that are sourced out of google. Everything we are working with is built around claude. The change management into msft and google might happen but to imply it's just hopping over a puddle for a mature organization is an oversimplification.

ashdrewness

Theirs is no doubt the best product but that’s not the concern. They have no moat & MS or Google will eventually catch up for most enterprise use cases. Then the question becomes where the revenue will come from when 95% of corporate use cases are willing to accept lesser/open models. There’s not enough revenue to cover that other 5% who want to use Claude’s frontier models.

stock_dude9

If AI is so efficient and helps save companies on money everywhere why has literally nothing become cheaper? Why is my Microsoft 365 going up the most I’ve ever seen if MS is saving so much money on less staff, etc?

Traktion1

It is a good point, but I suspect it will encourage other business sectors to try to evaluate output in a similar way. There was a time when most software had little or no automated testing. Big firms had QA teams where humans would manually verify everything. Smaller teams just winged it. It was observed that automating testing led to faster software production, with fewer bugs. I suspect there are many industries that may find value in emphasising the evaluation phase. It may not have been economical before, but if it leads to delivery speed improvements now that we have AI, it may become beneficial. While claude code (or alternative harnesses) are geared towards coding, similar harness development into other areas may help. Some may be derivatives of the same core (MCP tools calls and loops), but the heuristics and specialisms may be restructured. We don't yet know what this could look like, but if we accept claude code is designed for coding, it is possible to imagine other specialisms. Ofc, this doesn't mean anthropic or openai are needed for this. Open weight models and harnesses may flourish in lower value areas. Areas where privacy and IP concerns are an issue too. I suspect AI may become too embedded to want a private US company in the middle of it all. Using MS and Google stuff is already getting scrutiny and I doubt the EU, China, etc, will want more dependencies. So, I predict an open stack will become popular. Open models, open harnesses, open MCP tools, etc. Cloud may remain popular for complex sessions, but I expect ever more capable, smaller, desktop AI to do the bulk of the lifting in the future.

baconator81

Let me ask you a question, if Gemini, or OpenAI, or CoPilot (MS is building their own), or Grok becomes as good as Claude but cheaper in terms of token, would you switch to those model? As a software developer.. I would. In fact for easier tasks I am already doing that. So the question is.. where is the moat?

Mon7eCristo

Didn't Bill Gates scam some software engineer and bought DOS for like 50k and then sold a license for "his OS" MS-DOS to IBM for 1mln? 

DefiantTelephone6095

Yeah but MS on copilot are switching this and introducing cheaper models, at that point the frontier will be pay per use..., and soon even if you select opus 5.5 they will push your prompt through a small model first. MS will win this.

ra__account

It is grounded in sexism. In the 1920s, the default assumption was that anyone in a professional setting was male. My grandmother was forced to drop out of her MS program because she got married. Neutral they has a long history and has all the clarity that's needed.

Dark---Knight

No you did not. Capex was down due to 3rd party delay, they are not reducing the capex but increasing. When Big 7 miss in this kind everyone pays. MS: https://www.reddit.com/r/MU\_Stock/s/G9eBvcxPvQ

EduinBrutus

You could do what they did in mid 2010s CW Shows when they had a paid placement with MS and go Bing It.

Clackamas_river

Grok response: "**Dr. \*\*\* \*\*\*(DDS, MS) at \*\*\*\* Dental Group is the closest match based on available photos.** She’s a white female dentist in \*\*\*\*, appears to be in her early 30s, and looks attractive/cute in her professional headshot (long highlighted blonde-brown hair, nice smile, pearl earrings). The photo shows her in black V-neck scrubs; it doesn’t clearly show body type or “big tits” the way a casual photo would—professional dental shots almost never do—so that part is hard to confirm from public images.

Green-Survey9189

You know more about this the me, I’m not a developer or coder (this isn’t a hostile comment). Is there a scenario where Anthropic becomes entrenched with their products in the way that Microsoft has? There’s open source models that mimic MS Office…I don’t know any business or government entity that doesn’t pay for the licensing. I know this is an apple to oranges comparison but I wonder if the people who make those purchasing decisions don’t just say “Let’s not mess around, we’ll go with the Premium service”.

appearstobeidiot

Azure revenue is growing at 48% yoy. Azure revenue today is roughly a third of all MS revenue. Large corps are betting on that. They also know how much the most prudent competitor spending on Azure or GCP or AWS.

JuanGuillermo

Just for MS Teams, Microsoft should be juged at the International Court of Justice in The Hague for crimes against humanity.

DueSplit1129

BREAKING: US REPORTEDLY PREPARING SHORT, INTENSE IRAN STRIKES ON NOVEMBER 4 The Trump administration has reportedly warned Gulf allies to prepare for potential US strikes on Iran as early as November 4, one day after the midterm elections, according to MS NOW. Gulf states are reportedly urging de-escalation, while the US continues reinforcing its military presence in the region.

Jonathan-Ventimiglia

Goldman and MS.

ResortMain780

>Dunno where you would store such sensitive data but prob not in way that a compromised system can get them lol. How are going to have AI do analysis on your proprietary product/customer/patient/research data without giving the AI access to it? If that AI is openweight, running on your own servers, you can at least control where it goes. If you give it to claude, it becomes *at best* anthropic's training data available to all its customers. >Yeah we also deleted the prod database before the ai era. nothing new. How can you not see the difference between an employee, who is fully accountable for his actions, to a rogue AI that accidentally or deliberately hacks in to your system and leaks/steals /deletes your data? >eah they plan to switch them, but to what, Linux?  To something *under their own control,* that can not be switched off by MS, that can not be subpoena'd or receive a national security letter by the NSA/CIA *.* It doesnt matter if its going to be worse, slower, buggier and more expensive, which it almost certainly will be.

JiskiLathiUskiBhains

[<image>](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BZDAxNTUwYWQtNzY5MS00MThmLWJlYzEtYWY2YzRiMGYwYTM0XkEyXkFqcGc@._V1_QL75_UX388_.jpg)

joshsteich

Yeah, no, you obviously don’t know what goes into diagnosis or how medical liabilities work—AI will always guess toward the most common answer, not the correct one, and AI just doesn’t have access to like 90% of medical research. It’s in gated databases, and AI is just laundering google and Medline with some Pubmed sauce. “It said the same tests as my GP did!” is cool until it misses an MS diagnosis or scoops out the wrong kidney. AI in medicine is about shit like combing massive databases for protein folding errors and doing point interpolation on PET scans, and you think it registering you as Not Sure is a trillion dollar industry. And for lawyers, an AI can’t actually answer “is this car really a lemon?”

0202_tihssitidder

I'm old and started in Tech. Met Gates several times and worked with Balmer over several years (we signed some OEM deals with MS). Buffet met at many shareholder meetings. Bezos at three industry events...and later when I worked at Amazon. Andy Grove (Intel) was another from tech days (I was at a large PC manufacturer). Michael Dell (and Susan) I knew from 80s in Austin and then up until about 1996. Luckily I never had to deal with Musk. He is a weirdo. But, they are not all weirdos. Bezos is. Karp is. Thiel is. Many of the newest ones are. Politicians are maybe 99% dangerous, liars, and weirdos.

PassableForAWombat

MS bond offering earlier was the run signal.

bboy1977

The bots are pumping them out all over X where they are being picked up by all the other sites. Someone real pissed at Google and MS.

Captobvious75

AI capex killing the earnings of Amazon, Google and MS. I think this could be the start…

Complex-Note-5274

Calls on GS MS JPM if true

gotwaffles

Bro this is just your doodles in MS paint

zer00eyz

$75.2B – $80.0B is Gross, \~$56.3B USD Net MS was just $92.3 and $36.6B Net Just to be clear one of these companies makes hardware, the fact that it has those margins are obscene. Because they should be backwards.

Iwubinvesting

I did the opposite beginning to middle of the year during Google peak and MS dip

SuperCoupe

I'm holding MS because they are laying off, and the market loves a big layoff.

RobKohr

If you just sold a bunch of G and you were a cautious investor, you would probably just by MS. Money has to go somewhere.

RobKohr

Both bought hard on the dream of cornering the market on AI, only to have to subsidize it in circular accounting. There is no reason MS won't feel the pain of their mistake eventually.

Liquidsnake959

So MS earnings are less important than Googs yeah ok.

zer00eyz

I mean they are being sued into the ground by bond holders for this very thing. Your bingo card for bad things: MS or Google use Negative free. cash flow - Blue Owl reporting goes bad. Tomorrow is gonna be rough.

Regenbooggeit

I’d rather watch something that’s made in MS Paint by now.

Bulky_Jellyfish9012

If either Alphabet or MS starts focusing on improving capital efficiency, I’ll increase my position in that company. Otherwise, I’ll sit on the sidelines for now and wait until after the midterms to buy hyperscalers if we get a big enough pullback. I’m also planning to gradually trim my semiconductor holdings into the midterms.

EvilEconomist

Warren Buffett also convinced him to sell most of his MS stock in the 2000s to build a well diversified portfolio instead. Technically very reasonable advice but in this case it cost him a lot.

McOmghall

If you don't work at MS already they should pay interest on the buyout smh

Junior-Albatross4614

We will force you to rent MS Office for a monthly fee. WTH?

thethumble

Dude do you go out much to talk to enterprises ? Windows client ? Really? That’s your understanding of MS? Pffffd don’t issue an opinion if you have no clue - Ms IS the enterprise standard across small, medium and ultra large corporations, they are where they need to be, enterprise

ryallen23

You could be right, but if you wanna protect against downside, other financials are way better like MS or C or IBKR

Melody_in_Harmony

This and the Voluntary exit programs at MS and other tech companies layoff patterns lead me to beleive the consolidation is coming and enshitificaction of the institutions is real. More talent swapping and waste it seems.

actias_selene

Local AI already costs a lot less, unless you need fable level reasoning. The only reason for any company with more than 100 users to maintain sub model is due to execution risk. On the other hand, alternatives to office have always been available, yet, companies paid seats to MS. So who knows how these things will turn out.

Smooth-Yam-1491

Furthermore, if I understand the terms correctly, the 'buyout' is just their standard severance package, e.g. you basically choose to be fired. An employee who wants to be fired probably wouldn't be doing an amazing job, and this way MS don't have to deal with wrongful termination lawsuits, discrimination lawsuits, labor laws (especially outside the US), office politics, and the full morale blow of involuntary mass layoffs.

ckglle3lle

Microsoft actually slowed their hiring way down over the past 10 years overall. Many MS owned companies had hiring freezes and many departments have been chronically down headcount with employees also expected to do essentially >1.5 jobs worth of responsibilities. They will likely expect every team impacted to pick up the slack with AI which may work to some extent. Morale is going to be under the toilet though

Liquidsnake959

All these companies are shedding jobs by the tens of thousands! MS wants another 60k to leave on their own, WTF is happening

Mother-Television758

Aw man, we are using MS products heavily at our company and I just know they are going to become just that little bit shittier due to this...

TheGRS

I remember the days when memes were made by hand in MS Paint. *shakes fist at cloud*

McOmghall

I know a bit about how MS works and most of those people aren't doing anything. This is true for most massive corporations.

McOmghall

They are firing boomers primarily so it doesn't seem to be a headcount cut per se. To be eligible you need to have 20 years working at MS.