Reddit Posts
From Olive Presses to Power Laws: A 2,600-Year History of the Call Option
How today's highly valued AI stocks can turn into the next IBM like turn around
ASML Q1 Results: Net Sales hit €8.8B, Net Profit at €2.8B, FY26 Outlook raised. With AI driving relentless lithography demand, is ASML the ultimate AI bottleneck?
ASML earnings July 15, put/call ratio above 1.3, should I be worried about my calls?
Didn't realize how much more the traffic skews towards Bots in NA
Presentation from Mathew Ball on health of gaming as a sector
ESPEC (TYO: 6859): Market Leader in Thermal Chambers for AI and Data Center Build-Out
Nano Labs, Often puts in Huge Moves, Likely to get picked up here?
Nano Labs, Small Semi/Ai stock, Beer Money Play.
Should investors be concerned about ASML?
QYOU Media - The "One-Stop Shop" for the Creator Economy $QYOU.V
Nike down 15% on poor outlook. Turnaround stalling. Is this a buying opportunity?
Elon Musk’s "TeraFab" 2nm Chip Plant: An Impossible Dream or the Ultimate Bull Case for Semi Stocks?
Is hitting $5-10M net worth a reasonable target????
The Missing Link in the Semiconductor Supply Chain: Canatu
The Missing Link in the Semiconductor Supply Chain: Canatu
MonthPulse Tactical: Neutral/Volatile Setups for Jan 2026 [NA Market]
ASML: The Only Company on Earth That Literally Prints AI Money
Amazon Deep Dive: A Strategic Evolution & Market Position.
AMZN IS A $4 TRILLION STOCK AND THE MARKET IS SLEEPING
Vegan Stocks : Why Oatly ($OTLY) deserves more love than Beyond
ASML is the backbone of the AI boom, so why is it lagging the hype?
Why Isn’t ASML Ripping Like Other AI Stocks After Great Earnings?
Evaluation on New Gold (NGD)
DFLI (Dragonfly Energy Holdings) – Comprehensive Due Diligence
Intel jumps 8%… while Marvell spends $5B on buybacks
Intel jumps 8%… while Marvell spends $5B on buybacks
InPost (INPST NA Equity) - fundamentally strong company with a ticking time bomb for short
FUBO - The Sleeper Rocket Nobody’s Watching
FUBO - The Sleeper Rocket Nobody’s Watching
FuboTV Q2 2025 Preliminary Results vs. Estimates
What's the safest way to profit off this news? (Assuming I haven't already missed the boat)
Working on a Valuation Report on ASML: Any Tips to Strengthen the Analysis?
Healthy Extracts Expects Record Sales for Q2 2025, Driving Strong Positive Adj. EBITDA
I swear this has been printing money. i thought NA was a dud at -7% today and then boom, 40% in a second. lets all make some money!
$LWLG, $CNSP, $NMRA, $NA from Squeezefinder Ai watchlist 6JUNE2025
I Finally Revealed My Secret Short Selling Strategy – Full Breakdown in This Video
Here's what the Amazon page for "cooking products" would look like with Trump's China tariffs applied
Helium Evolution - $HEVI.V imminent breakout expected
Helium evolution - $HEVI.V imminent breakout expected
What do you think?? Titan Machinery TITN??
Li-FT Power Ltd: A Remarkable Investment in Energy Storage (CSE: LIFT) (OTCQX: LIFFF) (Frankfurt: WS0)
$INTC Israels : 3.2Billion for a Western Worlds TSM. And that ASML NM Machine. 5nm, 3nm, 2nm coming. No More Taiwan TSM China Fear.
The big Picture for Royal helium - RHC.V and what investors are missing
Li-Ft Power Ltd Emerges as a Serious Lithium Contender (TSXV: LIFT, OTCQX: LIFFF)
Li-FT Power Ltd: A Remarkable Investment in Energy Storage (CSE: LIFT) (OTCQX: LIFFF) (Frankfurt: WS0)
Li-FT Power Ltd: A Remarkable Investment in Energy Storage (CSE: LIFT) (OTCQX: LIFFF) (Frankfurt: WS0)
A BMO analyst picks his winners and losers from bank earnings reports
$SAVE JetBlue + Spirit Merger Arb Summary up til now
Investing in World-class Hard-rock Lithium Project (CSE : LIFT, OTCQX: LIFFF, FRA : WS0)
Investing in World-class Hard-rock Lithium Project (CSE : LIFT, OTCQX: LIFFF, FRA : WS0)
Metasurface Eyepiece for Augmented Reality with Ultra-wide FOV
How Competitive will AMD be against Nvidia in AI Accelerator Market
Reasons other than IV that cause a skew in ATM prices ?
Is the EV motorcycle space going to be big in NA? or just Europe? $ZAPP
US Banks are grossly over leveraged. The coming downgrades are warranted.
Is the cyber security space going to keep growing?
Is the cyber security space going to keep growing?
Anyone have experience investing into sports teams?
$NILIF - Sprott Lithium Analyst just released an analyst report on Surge Battery Metals with projections implying the potential of 20X to 80X multiples still from here... 4 key takeaways listed here:
PACW Falls over 50 after reports of a potential sale, bringing banks stocks down
PACW fails over 50% after reports of a potential sale
Advice on next potential moves for my retirement account
BigCommerce Inc. ($BIGC) will announce its first quarter 2023 financial results on May 4, 2023.
PSLV vs THE WORLD - Must read for gold and silver bugs.
$COCO IS GOING TO THE MOON, IVE MADE A LOT OF MONEY IN THIS STOCK, I BELIEVE COCO WILL KEEP GOING UP TO THE MOON🚀📈🔝🏁💵👁️👁️☝🏼🥇💯
DUN NA NA NA NA - Quick 40 Second Test Run
Details into FTX days after the bankruptcy (500+ pages)
FTX Bankruptcy: Detailed bill for S&C posted
The average mortgage cost reaches 45% of household income, highest level in 40 years
FFIE- Short squeeze began - what do you think?
Mentions
> Intel famously did not adopt low NA tools and instead opted for quad patterning which caused process issues, not because they struggled with next gen litho tools. And Intel did that mainly because EUV was simply not ready for the planed launch. 10nm (now Intel 7) was supposed to be out in 2015/2016 already. When TSMC launched their 7nm in late 2017 and later volume production in 2018 it was using DUV as well, for the same reason. TSMC only slowly started using EUV for key layers with further iterations of 7nm.
TSMC certainly has HiNA litho tools at their development fabs. Intel famously did NOT get low NA tools and instead opted for quad patterning which caused issues.
Issues that have caused Nike's downfall: \* Last CEO (who was more of a CFO) shifted the business model to all direct to consumer which allowed for other shoe companies move into retail shelf space. \*Got political instead of focuing on their true sports core. \* Focusing on releasing older, classic shoe lines repeatedly in different colors, saturating the market, which used to be limited and exclusive, creating fierce demand. Doing this also allowed the newness to lag and competitors to catch up. \* Didn't adapt to a localized China strategy like other sportswear companies successfully did and tried to arrogantly be an American company in a foreign market that didn't identify with that. Nike's strengths despite headwinds: \* Most of their legacy American sports and apparel businesses are still strong, with several segments growing in NA. \* Nike has shifted back to being synonomous with sports, which is what they are at their core and what they've been at their most successful. \* They still have one of the most iconic, recognizable brands on earth. \* They've ramped innovation as evidenced the Caitlin Clark 1s which sold out after a few hours of being launched this morning. TL;DR - Nike yeeted their shelf space to competition, flooded the market with legacy bull shit, stopped innovating, made fat people the face of the company, and screwed up China. That being said, they have a somewhat capped floor due to the strength of their legacy sports and apparel businesses. Investment Thesis: I wouldn't necessarily say there is a "bull" thesis, but I think there is an investment thesis going forward. Turning around an entrenched company as big as Nike doesn't happen over night. Decisions the last CEO made over several years is brutally reveberating around the world, continually nut kicking them every quarter. That being said, I believe Elliot Hill is taking all the necessary (and difficult) steps to not just juice the business in the short term, but provide the structural turn around that will propel the company into coming years. Some of these initatives: localzing China, getting distribution re-established, leading with sport & innovation, putting a stop to flooding the market with legacy lines that should be more exclusive, and operational optimization. Due to strong legacy businesses, American sports, and running, Nike will always have say a somwhat robust market cap floor, becuase they essentially have a monopoly in these areas. If you buy today, you are expecting the bleeding to be stopped within the next year and the Company to begin bearing fruit by localizing international markets, getting them back to growth like the US. In the meantime, you make \~5% on anything invested while you wait. Anyone saying Nike is dead or irrelevant culturally is massively exaggerating. It is an easy (and lazy) narrative to throw out given the massive price decline. It's just a huge ship to turn around, it's taking time to undo the massive damage done by the prior CEO and get back to what made Nike, Nike. TL:DR - Nike has a natural price floor and they can't keep fucking things up forever. The new management has been pulling the right levers internationally and with their own innovation. They know they need to localize foreign markets where they need to get back to growth. They've stated this and that it's a top priority. If you buy today, you have faith they can make these structual changes and you clip your \~5% coupon while you wait.
IM GO NA BUY MORE $SPY, GET READY FOR ATH PUMP NOW, WATCH! Citadel Hates Me
:screech: OPEN NA NOOR
Didn’t Ford stop making cars for the NA markets, only making trucks and SUVs now?
The Indians the ones from India, not the NA ones.
the 440 is net of the closures though, and it's for fiscal 2026, which per their last 10-Q ends sept 27, so this sunday. the 8-K literally says it's based on the \~250 NA closures partially offset by higher openings in international. rough math 600-650 minus 250 would've been 350-400 and they're guiding 440, so intl is running a bit ahead. doesnt really tell you much about next year's opening pace yet imo
That's called a gambling addiction my friend, even if a miracle happened and your debt would be paid, you know what you would then do - deep down. You'd try to win it all back. 12k I know for you is like 100k for someone in NA, so its a very expensive life lesson but it's not the end of the world.
I listened to a podcast on this from actual experts. "Most scientific papers" =/= better. I can produce a billion scientific papers on whatever subject and claim to be the best. Meanwhile, Joe can produce 2 scientific papers that completely revolutionizes technology as we know it. And this is *exactly* how China tries to manipulate perception on the global stage. They commonly use the tactic of "Most = Better". If they are so great, why haven't they cracked EUV? Or High-NA? With all those "most scientific papers", you'd think they'd have cracked EUV by now. The technology is already pretty old.
He lives in Canada, there is a big divide in most of NA, where 100k is pocket change or liveable damage to people. Especially since apart of Canadas housing is actually just propped up by foreign money banking and buying assets in Canada.
There’s so many NA beers in the market but not a single decent NA whiskey 😤
And way too late. It is difficult to start a new car company. Not at all an Elmo fan, but he got in early with Tesla. Now every brand makes EVs, and once BYD floods the NA market....
what a fatass loser man, have you seen him with his wife? like shes disgusted by him. Usha is number 1 prostitute NA I swear fucking whore
Approximately 40% of world population is below the age of 25. Outside NA vast majority of these young folks grow up kicking rocks and pretending to be their favorite soccer player. They will know Mbappe but will have no clue about who Jordan is.
No dog we are Americans watching nfl and 720 hd clips from peak NA 15 years ago
Me three boys - ytd 73% If the NA and international environment for cannabis keeps on improving it seems like a buy regardless of the recent SP appreciation
Yes. Chinese companies are just using stolen technology to "jump the line" on domestic producers. They don't have to pay expensive NA workers to build cars. Sure, let them in with a 300% tariff lol.
Yep, and Tesla manufactures and sells cars in China and stays competitive there. The opposition points in the US to Chinese cars are pretty simple to address: 1. Make them build them in the US. 2. Force the US cellular carrier connecting them to address local data sovereignty (firewall them off from non-local data sources). We saw all this play out earlier with Japanese cars. What the NA automakers did first was import and re-brand Japanese cars until they could compete at a manufacturing and design level with them. The current policy is not going to do “Detroit” any favors in the long term.
Kinda funny that the take is Hill is doing the right stuff and also that he'll pump guidance on Oct 1. Those usually don't travel together for long. On the last free call (Q3) management tone was still only mid-pack at 5/10 even with NA growing, so I'd be careful trusting a sudden "turnaround is ahead of schedule" vibe until China and Converse stop looking broken.
Funnily enough, China has just regulated the AI space: [https://regulations.ai/regulations/RAI-CN-NA-SUMMARY-2026](https://regulations.ai/regulations/RAI-CN-NA-SUMMARY-2026)
Curiously enough, China has just regulated that space - [https://regulations.ai/regulations/RAI-CN-NA-SUMMARY-2026](https://regulations.ai/regulations/RAI-CN-NA-SUMMARY-2026)
Another session of pump and dump comming up! Stay tuned for the NA edition
Will be interesting to see the view of the auto industry as they have complete vertical integration meaning they don't need any parts suppliers. They could be starting a trend in the NA auto industry.
Not surprising, Mexico stabbed Canada in the back last negotiations as well, they are untrust worthy. Canada needs to continue to work on its own deals outside of NA.
It's amazing how ignorant Westerners are of the differing levels of economics across the world It's either Japan, Europe, NA, or "the poorest most violent shithole", no in betweens
NA beer has gotten pretty good
Does this mean everyone in New Mexico will have to change their mailing address? NA currently isn’t a state abbreviation…
I love WSB because of the salty ass trolls Got verified posts of me raging at every rave there is in NA Bout to fuck a hot ass latina these kids could only dream of, stone cold welcome to being a rich white guy 🖕🖕🖕 Then I just got more cash than I know what to do with Hell yeah
RDDT/APP- Advertisers that have been slashed big time. RDDT down big on NA DAU slow growth/Google- still room for significant monetization there, Google is likely to make a new deal, and RoW is coming online quickly with translation into something like 25 languages. Expect that growth to continue for quite some time. APP - Again mostly fears of stalled growth as it is starting to cap out in its niche. If they can prove capability in expansion efforts it should be richly rewarded. If it has mild success its still trading cheap. Uber though I am looking for it at $60 to really go LONG
Here’s the CBOE’s page on it: https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/sp-500/xsp-options/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=PMI-Retail-S&P-500-Suite---SPX/XSP-Non-Brand---US/NL/HK&utm_term=NA&utm_content=XSP-NB-EXT&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23423593416&gclid=Cj0KCQjw--7UBhCpARIsAGJBptjGrSVsfVPvsnX2YFdz3iV5ieGzWHTEJvnbpdUjdPBmYmQt0J3lf9saAsGiEALw_wcB
I came back from a trip to Japan, where this is absolutely not the case. We in NA think we're living in a first world country, but in reality it's a 3rd world shithole compared to Japan.
Imagine that just so happening to come to light right after NA close on a Friday. And fuck 'em for shaking me out of my short play
Holding puts because I don't see the catalyst. China is uncertain and NA market was forecasted to be declining. Unless things suddenly reversed in the last few months, but I suppose we shall see!
This is cool but ROW growth and NA ARPU will grow regardless. RDDT is going nowhere and has a lovely runway.
The only action bears get is some pre market bullshit before NA goes to bed. Its just sad for them
Yeah was gonna say, only beer that's 2p bucks for a 30 pack and actually tastes good, even the light version. Their NA is actually good too but doesn't come in 30s :(
They’re doing really well in NA recently. I think the trend is moving back to Nike in some form, however the China sales has investors spooked
They had 3% revenue growth in NA. From a stock perspective, that is very far from "doing well". From time to time a company might slip up once in awhile. Let's say a product release was delayed to the next quarter, so revenue would slow for the current quarter, but expected to reaccelerate the next, it's not too big of an issue. But with NKE, they don't know when the bleeding will stop. You'd almost never invest in a stock with 3% top line growth, and uncertain path forward. Because you'd just be far better off going with SP500 index. You pick individual stocks to beat the index.
Investing in North American tires right now would be like investing in Ford after the US allows Chinese cars to be imported. NA tires are having trouble competing with AP region tires.
Good investment, a Cayman billionaire called Kenneth Dart has bough 30% ownership of Flutter 18% shares + 11% TRS cash settled swaps and he also bought 5,8% of Draftkings a few weeks back, he also owns 30% of Evolution AB the largest B2B casino provider. I don't know if he is just pure speculation or has information but I guess no one knows what a supreme court would rule but these people usually don't loose... If we just look at any country apart from the US, prediction markets either exist under gambling laws and regulations like the UK or outright banned like Brazil and Spain etc. Anyway in general isn't gambling in nature means predicting an outcome? Probably Dart bet is on regulation of predictions and more states legalizing igaming/sportbooks in the US. All countries need tax money especially the US states and gambling with tobacco is the easy tax money. Prediction markets show states that the population gambling appetite is high. These are multi year slow burn play though don't expect a 50-100% bounce back within 6 months. Gambling companies acquired and mainly trade on ev/ebitda not p/s current Flutter Ntm ev/ ebitda is 9,8x I think for multiple countries market leader in any segment which has got big opportunities in Brazil and NA for growth is cheap. Heavily regulated sector so risk is a little higher and different than MSFT or ADBE CRM AMD etc.
Smart money dude. Increasing middle eastern tensions, increasing NK tensions, increasing Russia tensions, soon to be increasing China tensions. Increasing surveillance push across EU and NA. If I had any more left I'd for sure short the one company at the literal fuckin middle of all of that.
If NA users decline again, there's going to be another drop. Regardless of everything else going well.
This NA-ZI ( spelling to bypass Reddit AI), knows how to play the market with his lies, speculation, and hypes. Investors are buying his shit.
I got back from Japan, even the Starbucks have **way** better treats than any of the slop we have in NA. I had an early grey peach tart and a square cube of lemon cake, only 300 yen each and incredibly tasty. We in NA have been slowly fucked over the years by cost cutting, it's not even funny now that I've experienced the real Starbucks Japan.
This - research where the big ticket items in your car are built (transmission, etc) and buy based on it not being a NA car
God the BYD and other Chinese EVs are 20 years ahead of US manufacturers, they put the Japanese and Koreans to shame as well, at least in NA.
Do like. Any job. This is a single day's pay for most NA citizens
Very interesting. Yeah I mean if they can do it I'm in full support. High yield advanced node fab accessible to everyone is a good thing for the world. I'm very proud of my Chinese heritage and am not one to criticize China specifically or for the sake of any East vs West argument. It just seems so difficult for them, or anyone, to create high NA EUV alone. I've seen their progress in deposition which, though extremely impressive, is still lagging a fair bit to current technology. I also just don't know how they would be able to mass produce good tools for each step and then maintain high enough yields to be successful. You can see how terrible Intel and Samsung yields are even with full access to the most advanced tools.
Flipside of my oil play, going on London open determining the direction of the NA session. Bad deal, tho, this rise has been locked in since like April
I’m all about bringing in every Chinese vehicle now. Chinese vehicles are just better quality and cheaper than anything in NA. No point artificially protecting a dinosaur industry.
Yeah China has definitely caught up (if not advanced) in EVs/batteries, renewables, and LLMs. I'm definitely not disputing this. But I also mentioned this in my previous comment. EVs, batteries, renewables are far simpler technologies to copy and reverse engineer. Same with ai models where they can use a lot of the pre-existing training. I would argue that just one single component of chip fab alone (EUV lithography) is far far more complex than any of the listed technologies. There's a reaaon that Nvidia is the largest company in the world and every aspect of chip fab functions as essentially a monopoly. There's a reason that China has had access to DUV tools for decades now and were only able to replicate it this year. And DUV to EUV is like the same level of magnitude as creating an optical microscope to a transmission electron microscope. I am pretty confident that nobody, outside of ASML, will be able to create high NA EUV in the next 20 years, let alone every other component in dep, etch tools and chambers.
https://www.amazon.com/J-Basket-Hime-Japanese-Ramyun-Noodles/dp/B07D3FH588?crid=1LN2V6NA2IQPR
Even if Chinese AI greatly outpaces US, something something national security and then probably banned in NA/EU. If people were worried about Chinese cars and tech spying on Americans a few years ago, imagine what an AI model could capture. In a few years I believe GOOGL/MSFT and maybe AMZN will be the winners in this space.
Since buying into CROX in Aug 2023. every time I look at the stock valuation, I wonder why I don't own more. HEYDUDE's revenue decline is slowing and is likely to return to growth by the end of Q4, company gross margins are still incredible, Crocs NA returned to growth. It currently trades at 9x their FY26 adj. EPS guidance midpoint and <9x on trailing FCF. This is almost exactly the same valuation I paid in Aug 2023 despite the share count being almost *20% smaller* thanks to buybacks. Even being conservative on a rDCF with 2% terminal growth rate, 10% discount, -3% annual dilution, and just a 10% FCF margin (they've been 14% to 23% the past 6 years), it's priced for -1% revenue growth annually over the next decade.
The U.S. EV market has experienced a definite slowdown following the expiration of federal purchase incentives. After the buying rush in late 2025, sales pulled back alot compared with rapid growth seen globally in markets like China and Europe Tesla’s market share for its flagship Model Y in China dropped from roughly 18% in early 2024 to about 8%. To prevent Chinese manufacturers from completely destroying NA automakers, Canada implemented an annual import quota of 49,000 vehicles that's less than 3% of the Canadian car market. So yes it would have destroyed Canada but they put a quote on it as part of their tariff negotiations.
I’m a Europoor, I don’t watch NA news outlets.
Financial experts on tv saying NA-Vidia is like nuclear experts saying nucular.
Gotcha. I remember the 15 sold out like the first day for NA, a record for them. " Exact global sales figures for the OnePlus 15 have not been officially published by OnePlus, but industry estimates place early global sales between 2 million and 3 million units , with roughly 111,000 units sold during its initial release window in core Asian markets and around 450,000 to 500,000 units estimated across North America." and that doesn't count their other models still selling.
https://preview.redd.it/s04v1n31d1kh1.jpeg?width=3000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=04947821e5cbe6f89cd04656e06c78191a31aa0f Starbucks in Japan is another level, the ones we have here in NA serve pig slop by comparison. Puts on SBUX, not financial advice.
Ya cuz no way China is flooding NA with cheap GLP'3 right now.
Honestly, if El Nino does become as bad as they fear, picking these up for a longer term hold (1 year+) could do very well. I only say this because I remember when the Bird Flu thing was going on, I was trying to find a way to trade eggs (I'm a futures trader, was looking for egg futures). Could never find one that gave me access. Ultimately, the companies that deal in eggs, their stock went up the entire time that was going on. So in relation to El Nino, if it gets really bad (some projections are saying this could be the worst one in decades), then food crops all over the world will be affected (mostly asia, africa etc will be negatively impacted. NA might actually get more rain than usual which could be beneficial to crops, with the caveat that TOO much rain could drown out crops). Most of the Ag futures are up already this year by a decent amount (wheat for example is up like 40% on the year on futures). But this takes time to work its way thru the supply chain. Which is why I would consider these stocks for a buy-and-hold for at least a year.
Japanese hotels are next level quality and attention to detail, we in NA are living in third world conditions compared to them
Isn’t it like NA beer? Not sure of the point to be honest
NA futes Green. Asia red. Which side wins?
kimchi bros still salty NA dumped them on friday
I was just researching refinery services public companies and came up with a very narrow list ... and then realized I already owned the best play in the sector in CLIR. Think about how crack spreads have NA refineries running full stop to capitalize. Once the spreads narrow and the refiners go into maintenance mode, and they will because they must, that will be the opportunity for them to replace burners with Clearsign technology. Everything I understand suggests that CLIR burners offer two advantages, emissions & efficiencies improvements. It might take another 12-24 months for the thesis to play out, but as per your analysis they have the runway to get there. I am convinced this is the best under the radar pure play on refinery servicing that over the next few years.
Consumer commodities move on headline inventory cycles, but real structural pricing power lives in high-NA EUV optics and advanced packaging yields. If you're tracking supply chokepoints, look at the yield delta between thermal compression non-conductive film (TC-NCF) at 60% vs mass reflow molded underfill (MR-MUF) at 80% for high-bandwidth memory (HBM3e). When advanced packaging thermal dissipation chokepoints limit silicon throughput, gross margins shift upstream to the physical toolmakers holding proprietary optical numerical aperture patents. That's where physical supply lag actually compounds.
they active users from NA was down, reddit mods banning people left and right over nothing. This place is more restrict than youtube
I cannot tell if ze semis will dump at NA open until I look inside ze box “5th Sk Hynix circuitbreaker” Shut up
What do you want to hear? That China will never ever make a high NA EUV machine? If I said that, would you believe me? 'do you really think china, with it's highly educated workforce, with motivation of the scales isn't capable of that? Ok here goes: China will never make a high NA machine. Never ever. Hope you lap that up.
I think you're overstating the importance of this. ASML DUV isn't capacity constrained as far as I'm aware. Let's say this Chinese manufacturer manages to built 20 machines in 2027, it will be at best 2029 until they can match ASML orders and by then western logic fabs will be retiring their final DUV nodes anyways. Also all memory except SRAM is still shrinking, DRAM manufacturers are some of the earliest adopters of high NA-EUV China is not a threat to western semi-conductors this story is so overblown and every year they fail to build an EUV machine is another year western companies pull ahead.
Extreme future earnings expectations, oil-driven inflation/conflict contributing to the hawkish fed tone, cyclical capex spend. Kospi went up 190% in less than a year, NA semicon has had extreme growth, think of the last times you saw exponential crazes and toilet companies going 10x because they mentioned AI and tell me what happened after.
Imagine comparing the wheel to a High-NA EUV machine 😂
This is Immersion DUV which is 2 generations old tech (EUV and now High NA EUV which are both significantly harder to achieve). We already knew China could manufacture regular DUV so the jump is not saying much. This doesn't change anything for their downstream chip manufacturing potential as they already had access to this tech via ASML (still bad for ASML of course). Apparently mass production means 5 units for 2026 and 20 in 2027.
What if we do like 50mg of edibles and drink some NA beers?
Can some of my fellow NA regards tell me what actually happened in the summer of 69?
Yeah. NA has the money AND the population. Ads are a lot more expensive there for a reason.
This place is like one of those AA/NA group where everyone just brags about their drug use, I love it
One fab is like 10 billion, one ASML high NA EUV is like 330 million plus, and factor in all the other vendor tools, personal, contracts, ect. 100 billion can get it done, and has been done considering I got friends up at that site currently and they still expanding and adding more fabs.
Backlog is the tell here, not the headline beat. Order visibility running into 2027 and 2028 for logic and DRAM means this is not some one off pop, and they are the only shop making EUV gear so chipmakers cannot substitute around the bottleneck. Bernstein slapped something like a $2600 price target on it today off this print. Only pushback I would offer is High-NA is still a small share of what is shipping, Intel is basically the lone customer running it in production, so most of this year's raise is really just more low-NA units for capacity rather than some new tech unlock.
The capacity numbers are the more durable signal here. A 30% low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity add for 2027, with another 30% under evaluation for 2028, is a lead-time commitment, not a forecast. ASML has to place those equipment and staffing orders years ahead of the demand actually showing up, so that capex plan is really management's read on where logic and memory investment is in 2028, not 2026.
NA current policy is like a hornet nest. Nobody wants to poke it because of the retaliation, but also nobody likes it.
I drove by Micron’s site today. It’s insane how fucking big it is. More high NA tools coming to them before musk.
Iran saying it's closed doesn't mean it's closed. Plus it takes like 90 days for tankers to get from there to say NA, so lots of buffer and belief Iran will find some form of deal
[these](https://www.persol.com/en-us/products/0po3306s-95_31?cid=PM-SGA_000000-2.US-Persol-EN-B-NA-Inventory.ProdCode-NA-Prs-NA-Ecom-NA_Persol_0po3306s_persol+0po3306s&gclsrc=aw.ds&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=19035812137&gbraid=0AAAAACyAjJnzxlSBLkdGZfklqvQ-Gi9yT&gclid=CjwKCAjw08fSBhA7EiwAfbQTsIjI5Ica7zHx_Zf-1RFFhtLJAEoDE4iVh3avsmMwYhgueWWFxGI-phoCiYsQAvD_BwE) I like them.
We're still in the hardware stage of the AI build-out right now. The major customers of chipmakers and the memory makers are the big social media and internet companies who've signed multi-year contracts for hundreds of billions. I don't think there will be any measurable downside to CapX investment in NA manufacturing sites to their revenues or profit. There's line of sight to revenues through 2027. That's different from ATHM or EBAY or YHOO in 99. Yahoo had a market cap of 28B and a PE of 1785 on revenues of 61M and losses (no profit). The profitability was the problem there. There's no problem with profit now.
Europoors dont have money for expensive NA companies. NA companies are good but expensive.
No one is sending proprietary tech half way around the world and giving it to the chinese. Literally bullish because NA/EU now have to spend more gov money on space stocks.
There are new refineries in Africa and Asia that were completed relatively recently or will be completed soon. Not enough to completely offset the destruction but it makes the impact significantly less than it would be. Refining capacity is just moving away from NA/Europe
Because Alberta is controlled by conservative politicians who will twist themselves into pretzels to gargle the balls of the AI lords at the expense of their own constituents. Every other state or province in NA is waking up to how fucked these data centers are except right wing politicians…
Toyota has a pretty long history of bombproof turbo engines. They're not quite as reliable as the NA V6's and V8's that Toyota used to make a ton of, but they were still heaps more reliable than most other NA engines. The current Gen Tundra is significantly heavier than previous generations. Car warmup has been reduced drastically by better engineering so the car does not need nearly as much time to warm up. Wear from autostart is mainly on the starter, they put in beefier starters to handle the wear.
Pretty much all of Toyota's lineup made in NA is CUSMA compliant and tariffs are minimal. Despite the announcements from the Whitehouse, their assertion that they won't negotiate to extend means that CUSMA ends in **2036** instead of some time past 2036. They're probably just generally expanding productiin and consolidating pickups into one plant will make space for another vehicle in mexico.
This is true but let's not pretend Tesla competed on a perfectly even playing field. Tesla got heavy subsidies from many governments, both on the manufacturing side and with various tax credits on purchase across NA and Europe.
Can anyone explain to me why the news is saying some no-name company, Quantum Cyber NA, with a market cap of 30 \***million\***, is trying to acquire SpaceEx, which has a market cap of 2 \***trillion\***? [https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qucy-ambitions-acquiring-spacex-equity-133633942.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/qucy-ambitions-acquiring-spacex-equity-133633942.html) Bro, you ain't acquiring nothing. You can afford like 20 shares along with everyone else.
I personally believe that especially the senior engineers are the ones which are a) not present in a manufacturing company that needs ERP and b) are the least likely to want to put their name under a program which they did not write. ERP is not as important to tech as it is to companies with complicated and internationally integrated logistics. Take any gas turbine manufacturer, they procure parts from both inhouse and foreign suppliers, assemble them in house in NA or EU and then ship them world wide, yet their senior engineers won't be able to create anything close to SAP or SF
Yet they have less debt than their NA and Asian peers. How do you square that circle?