SE

AffectionateSink9445

I just saw this on WSB. My reaction was 50% on China and 25% on other SE Asia countries is still pretty crazy. I mean it’s good to decrease but idk. Feels like all this chaos that still results in higher tariffs will be unsustainable. I just fail to see how massive price increases due to tariffs don’t lead to negative economic effects 

legedu

I didn't say that. You said Trump/US needs China, not the other way around. I dispute that fully. China has an insane demographics problem, [worse than Korea or Japan](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-population-smaller-than-stated-and-shrinking-fast-by-yi-fuxian-2022-07). China exports a TON to the US. Not just that, China has [disguised](https://www.newsweek.com/china-us-tariff-dodging-transshipment-trump-2068086) the source of goods to avoid the original tariffs since at least April 2018. Tariffs on other SE Asian nations will greatly affect their overall economy. The Chinese people still haven't recovered from their real estate prices being eviscerated during COVID and the Evergrande debacle, and JUST residential real estate makes up over [70%](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4589866/#:~:text=Financial%20assets%20accounted%20for%20only,(J%C3%A4ntti%20and%20Sierminska%202008).) of household wealth. Any hit to non-real estate related commerce is a huge issue for China, which is probably why they're doing everything they can to find ways [to lend more money](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/china-to-cut-key-lending-rates-by-10-points-bank-reserve-requirement-ratio-by-50-points-.html).

youreaditfirst

SE to $185 after earnings next week. 10-20x play

RotundFisherman

Naive. If India and Pakistan break out into a full blown regional nuclear war, you’re talking about hundreds of millions of people dead instantly. The resulting smoke, fire storms and fallout would probably impact billions, potentially China and SE Asia depending on a number of factors. Widespread famine, mass global refugee crisis. The impact on the global economy even if the crisis was contained to those two countries would be significant. If your only takeaway is that Apple stock would go down because their facility in India is destroyed, that’s very short sighted.

AdCreepy6464

You can get the SE version with an integrated Swiss knife or the pro version with an integrated machete.

eddie991ao

SE and South Asia, y'all better calm ur shit.

eddie991ao

Where the FUCK is an Asian American man supposed to go to nowadays? America? Fuck that shit hole. South Asia? War. SE Asia, war might break out. The YEN is cheap. Let's all get out of here and head over to JAPAN!

eddie991ao

If it spreads I'm out of here. Obviously. Do not hit SE ASIAN COUNTRIES AT ALL COSTS. You dumb azzholes.

Tiny-Pomegranate7662

The reason I'm not cash is because the crisis is only a US one. Yes other countries will be whipsawed by our actions, but in a sense our loss is their gain. If we aren't using oil cause we recessed, that means cheap oil for places like Malaysia and things like that. I'm up like 18% YTD being basically entirely international. I think Europe is probably well priced in with increases but places like Brazil, South Africa, SE Asia are still cheap!

m0rgoth666

Not entirely sure but I think a lot of foreign companies are opening offices/franchises in Spain. Some of my friends just landed 70k to 90k jobs in Madrid which to me was a bit unheard of until now unless you worked as a SE at Amazon or something.

Professional-Cry8310

I’m sure his Silicon Valley buddies also loved cheap Chinese and SE Asian labour too for manufacturing. I guess them kissing the ring didn’t work well enough lol

youreaditfirst

I'm just sitting in the side lines waiting for the right play. I am one play away from where I can get a better work hours job and have my wife quit her job. SE calls are looking juicy. SE $180 After earnings

Rupperrt

Yeah, in the end people either can’t afford kids or are wealthy enough to prefer to pursue individualistic goals rather than having a family. Immigrants won’t behave much different than natives in the end. (even SE Asian birth rates have nose dived)

AvariceAndApocalypse

And all of SE Asia.

LONGLlVETHEMX-5

And the app is genuinely unusable to me. It’s a great app, but it requires your **exact location**, and not just while using the app (I’d be fine with that). They demanded I switch it to “at all times” instead of “while using the app”. iPhone SE

Antique-Resort6160

Yes, they're doing whatever they can to look tough, which isn't much.  Their diplomacy blitz to pick up trade allies failed.  Not surprising after they have been bullying everyone on trade and the south China sea, why would anyone lift a finger to help China when they can negotiate their own deals with the US? Japan will work with China for now, but they're in a worse spot than China, not sure how that will unfold. It's funny how different the news here in SE Asia is.  US news and political opposition in the US are basically parroting Chinese propaganda, the US is stupid and weak, and China is strong under the infallible leadership of dictator Xi, their victory is inevitable!  Here people are wondering if Xi will be overthrown, if the Chinese economy will collapse, there's no jobs for new grads, deflation taking hold, real estate collapse accelerating, get your money out of Chinese business,  etc.   China just dumped 1 million ounces of gold, a bizarre move that has people speculating even more.  It's hard to know what's going on, but it's generally seen as not good.

ImportanceWestern896

I also sold SE CALLs, but would hedge with 140 CALLs. SE fell after the Q2 earnings report last year, but the collapse of IV allowed me to earn Theta - have you considered doing a straddle? What will you focus on next?

aajncftu

SE0021921269

WickedSensitiveCrew

I bought GRAB/NU too. Also bought SE and MELI. I agreed with your thesis it didnt feel like those international businesses for going to be effected they had limited US exposure.

brainhack3r

I had to go to McDonalds on the drive from CO to CA a few months back. It was the only thing open that early. I haven't gone in like 15+ years. I was amazed by: 1. how automated it was 2. how unimpressive the food was. The US is now The Bad Place... I was living in SE Asia and it's 100x better to live there frankly. The only downside is the pollution, frankly. The US has amazing air quality.

SystemGardener

Exactly, you don’t need to get an iPhone released in the latest year… The IPhone 10x is still fully supported and same with the iPhone SE. Both of which can be purchased for 100-150.

defnotIW42

True. But their bred and butter was always phone. I think goldman said the new SE would be good for them, but i don’t really get that.

defnotIW42

I think apple has the long standing issue of their product line being not attractive anymore. People are totally happy with owning a 13 or even a 12. You don’t need to get a 16 or the new SE. Apple Vision was a flop. Plus tariffs still overhang at apple. Apple AI was disappointing. I think apple might miss biggly. Will it go down? Prolly not. Ape sees cheap apple and presses buy

SpaghettiMawnster

I think SE is slept on , June $150 calls lookin decent

AgencyAccomplished84

>naturally cutting down on sweatshop and salve labor and all these self identified progressives turn Candie Land real fast. okay, but if you actually look into this, china has taken up a lot of the bulk, cheap purchases from SE Asia that the tariffs targeted (ie, minimal reduction in demand) and if you watch Fox for 10 seconds you would notice the current leadership actually wants americans to go back to being the sweatshop laborers. no reduction in overseas sweat labor + rise in american sweat labor = more sweat labor overall which sucks lmfao

bobbybeansss

i know but biogen, moderna, and novavax just look too undervalued to me right now 🤣 this could end badly for me but i cant resist. and then biontech SE as a hedge in case they win the mrna race vs moderna

willkydd

I would agree it was a bad approach. Whoever design the approach must have been hoping to get a lot of countries by surprise, make them panic and agree asap to US requirements to isolate China. That didn't work as the pushback was too co-ordinated and China's trade is too far reching to be easily forgone by US allies. Good strategy, but at least a decade too late and impossible to implement with 4-year mandates. Next on the list of possible ways to cut China down to size are direct war, but I think it's too late for that, too. And finally what I fear will probably be the 'winner' strategy - stir up some sort of ethnic tensions in SE Asia to drag China into a major local war. Hello India and Pakistan.

WickedSensitiveCrew

Yea loaded the boat on MELI and SE when I learned they weren't going to be effected by the US tariffs yet tanked on that news.

vanrysss

The US - China tariff war is going to have bad effects on the US economy and no deal seems to be coming any time soon. Recession is coming, put your shekels into gold and SE Asia. Vietnam etc stand to benefit as manufacturing is already moving there anyway, this will just accelerate it. I think we're in a fake pump before shit really hits the fan. I'd rather lose out on some gains by sitting out than be long anything American right now.

DingDongDingDong6969

Bro people in the Philippines make $10 a day. Some people make even less in other parts of Africa and Asia. Just save up for a few month and take a trip to SE Asia and get some 🐈. You’re gonna be Just fine.

SamsonAtReddit

I'm not pro China at all. After all I have to live with this mess here in US. So it personally sucks for me and fam. But if I was a leader in China, there is zero chance I back down now. There will never ever (I hope) be another opportunity to go around SE Asia, Europe, Canada, South America and say look what analysts are saying. You may not like us, you may mot trust us, but you really going to go back to US after they literally put all of your fiscal budgets through hell, and for what? This is the historic moment to capitalize on the US hurting all its partners. Again, gonna suck for me and everyone I know. But I don't see why a country would back down to this extortion.

eddie991ao

SE Asia is a scary place. All the creeps are here

plsobeytrafficlights

chinese labor is cheap, but it is no longer *as* cheap as it used to be. I had a business partner from china and according to her, between the corruption and increasing costs, it was better in the future to move to SE asia.

737northfield

It’s only fun if you have $20k to blow over a weekend. But young people who do have that kind of money to blow on a 5 day vacation aren’t doing it in fucking Vegas or even the US for that matter. Live like an emperor for a week in SE Asia/parts of Europe or…mildly nice long weekend in Vegas. Duh.

dyslexic-alien

Eh, virtually all “good” people did this. Trump visited Epstein island along with Clinton, Gates, other American and European elite. Christian’s and Muslims did this for thousands of years too, and it was common for older males to have sex and reproduce with pre teens. American tourist go to SE Asia for sex with minors too so at this point, calling someone a sex pervert is a bit moot

GrumpsMcWhooty

LMFAO, if you think 2.5 million is going to get you "Set for life" you're delusional. Maybe if you move to Mexico or SE Asia.

QWEEFMONSOON

SE Asia, South America, Africa, Latin America are all pretty cheap once you get there.

PantoufleResearch01

Haha! Sounds like my Chinese ex-wife. I lived in Asia and SE Asia many years too. I don’t think it’s possible for us to understand how they process, fully

tonufan

McDonald's in SE Asia is surprisingly good. I ate quite a bit when I was in Thailand earlier this year. They have Fried Chicken buckets that blow away KFC and also serve curly fries on top of the other American and local offerings.

WickedSensitiveCrew

SE up 103% over 1 year. Up 22% YTD. Havent heard this ticker discussed in a while.

CryptoChartz

You guys think if this tariff situation actually leads to chinas financial crisis with production businesses shifting to other SE Asian countries people will give big Donnie credit?

goodbodha

you should watch the entire interview and not the edited version. He rambles, but its also pretty clear he is grasping at straws. The tariffs are only going down from here. My guess is that we are under 3 weeks from several deals being announced and a further lowering of tariffs against most of our trading partners. China probably won't get lowered back to business as usual levels, but it will likely get lowered a bit. If Trump gets a deal in principle with India and announces that Vietnam is getting some easing of tariffs I think that alone will deal with a lot of the angst about China. If Trump reduces tariffs on China against specific goods that aren't going to be made in India or Vietnam that would help a lot. Toss in some sort of deal with South Korea to cover a bit of the rest and its likely most of the shortfall will be addressed. Imagine for a minute if Vietnam sticks to shoes and clothing. India picks up a bunch of the knick knack stuff and South Korea picks up the large industrial stuff (think ships, cranes etc.). China might get left with ceramics, solar, batteries, and probably through this xmas season toys. Trump could then drop tariffs on China for those categories and leave them relatively high on a bunch of other stuff to reach an average that is still high, but not as painful. India could get a major shot in the arm for gdp and they will likely be an ally if we go to war with China one day. End of the day I suspect the bringing back manufacturing part of his platform will disappear. He will still keep leaning on the anti China stance though and he will then spend a year talking about how great the deals are that he reached with India, South Korea, SE Asia, and probably Japan. Will those deals really move the needle? Probably not by much, but thats politics for you.

-specialsauce

Florida is going to shit the bed and the SE & sunbelt will take some hits. But it seems like most areas won’t experience any significant drop unless we somehow end up in a full blown stagflation recession.

etaoin314

except for Europe...and Africa, the Middle East, the rest of SE asia, Russia, South America, and Australia.

yirtletirtle

Uh. Thiss been a problem for years.  The mineral is abundant. Just the refining process is terribly toxic.  They tried to build some refiner in SE Asia but that went no where either.  

95Daphne

It was just fine for me and for most other than the year of inflation that was at its worst in 40 years lmfao. I will make an admission though, although part of it should be listened to. My upbringing was by two nerds who were NOT in protectionist jobs when they worked in the SE US, and although I do have a living grandparent who had a job in a protectionist field for a very long time, even she never had any interest in her kids or grandkids working in it. Cultural conservatism can be popular in the SE, but what is NOT popular is protectionism outside of West Virginia and if things don’t really blow up here, the last general election in the US that will have a protectionist focus will be 2028. And yes, sorry, arguing for protectionist and you do not need X, Y, and Z is political.

caocaothedeciever

The Yen is Japanese. Most nations in SE Asia excluding the Phillipines and including even Vietnam do more business with China and will do so with the YUAN if convenient. Here in Thailand we work with the YUAN (or RMB if you still get confused) and the dollar. Rarely with the Euro, except to deal with European tourists. Yes, the Euro is important, but not THAT important globally.

caocaothedeciever

You've never been to SE Asia have you?

Middle-Reception3791

Precursor: I am moving out from SAP SE and can take some stocks with me, except the RSUs. The other Stocks - are around 39, would give me around 10k EUR cash now. However, I am still getting a couple new stocks for the remainder of my time there, until around 5 more months. What should I do ? I wanna use the money to gearing myself up for the next job.

maparo

[](https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiphy.com%2Fexplore%2Fthats-your-opinion-man&psig=AOvVaw3slAH4SE9kgCnCbR2pfQyb&ust=1745551912815000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBMQjRxqFwoTCLi2g9_d74wDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE)

burner_socks

[https://www.youtube.com/live/fKsAyjgV-SE](https://www.youtube.com/live/fKsAyjgV-SE)

CapnPantaloons

https://www.youtube.com/live/fKsAyjgV-SE?si=N9hq_CfguvAOHis4

NotMyMainLoLzy

https://www.youtube.com/live/fKsAyjgV-SE?si=96Y6bLlqqH0s5oLi He’s already speaking…and has been for a while. Not much about tariffs other than they are going to focus on America first, even the playing field, and etc

zuziannka

https://www.youtube.com/live/fKsAyjgV-SE?si=rLAo2Rj8hc4ZyB2f

heyhowdyhihellothere

I have $1000 to add to my portfolio and I also lowkey know absolutely nothing. I was going to sell QQQ once it wouldn’t be at a loss but I don’t know if I had a good reason for that. I’m 20 in SE US but I want to move further north in the next 5 years and maybe out of the country long term. Full time college student (junior). Income is basically whatever I can scrap together because I don’t have any expenses my parents don’t cover at the moment since they will pay for groceries/gas/rent until I graduate and get a more permanent job (and they are also covering my student loans). Once I do I will probably make like 40-50K towards the beginning and maybe 70-80 later. My objective is pretty much to get things started/a solid base to be financially stable in the future. So eventually the house and retirement thing but right now I just want to figure things out. The money I have in there I don’t need and I plan to act as if it never existed and it’s not even an option to take it out. I will probably need some in like 10-15 years but I plan on leaving most of it in there as long as possible. I don’t care about risk at all but that’s probably because I don’t really understand it at all but like I don’t need this money right now so like wouldn’t it recover eventually? FTEC 1.147 shares $177.80 +$13.45 +8.18% QQQ 0.44 shares $200.11 -$29.74 -12.94% VOO 1.257 shares $618.93 -$36.83 -5.62% VXUS 0.959 shares $59.99 +$6.24 +11.60% XLE 1.03 shares $83.36 +$2.64 +3.28%

Valkorion335786

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKsAyjgV-SE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKsAyjgV-SE)

Time-Cardiologist906

Xi is gathering SE Asia and making new deals with Brazil (soybeans), Canada (oil), and EU. The USA is the losers here.

fumar

Yeah. If we just did a repeat of the China trade war during the first term, people were on board. But pissing all over Canada and Mexico, then pissing on our other allies while starting a trade war with the whole world with a sham "reciprocal tariff" calculation, really showed how stupid these people are.  If you want to absolutely crush China, at a minimum, you can't also slap a 50% tariff on Vietnam and other SE Asia countries at the same time. You need a carrot to go with your stick. Ideally you single out China and only China with tariffs, not single yourself out in global trade as an unstable maniac that changes everything on a day to day basis 

Jadenindubai

You absolutely cannot handle a 200%+ tariff if you import from China. Some will bankrupt, some will start laying off workers and the cost of goods will increase to keep the profits afloat. These things are yet to happen for businesses that stocked their goods before the tariffs. I reckon it will take a few months for people to feel it. On top of that we have the 10% universal tariffs, 25% steel and aluminum, and whatever bullshit % it was applied on panels coming from SE asia.

ImDaddy7

SAP SE pumping 10% after earnings lets go europooorsss

goodbodha

I wouldn't be so fast to assume that China is successfully moving on. They need a net importer for a trade partner. Right now they are making deals with a bunch of export nations. That may make good headlines, but it won't move the needle on gdp. Remember the belt and road initiative they did awhile back. Go look and see how that has played out. Currently China is the dominant export nation but it has a lot of competition. The US is the dominant import nation and has no competition as a top importer. I don't like how this is being done, but the position the US has isn't as weak as people seem to think. Without us importing from a country it's likely that country will drop to minimal GDP growth. China needs high GDP growth. If Trump wants to wrap this up they should go zero tariffs on Europe, Canada, Mexico, with minimal conditions. Then turn to SE Asia and Australia with similar terms. Plenty of export nations can benefit from this and China would likely come to the table or be left out. The big rub is that when cornered like that many countries will go to war. China needs an out. we should work a deal, but it should center on IP, tech, Taiwan, and perhaps shipping. Even then it shouldn't be to hobble them but to set things up so we can all avoid the paths that lead to war. Let Australia build the ships. Let Taiwan remain separate, and crack down on IP theft. Those would be reasonable goals.

AvocadoPurees

They actually complied and are getting more pain, just bullying the weak, SE Asia growth had stunted for sometime now and will get worse

Jadenindubai

Tariffs on panels coming from SE Asia

Prestigious-Cod-222

So a 3,500 % tariff on solar panels from SE Asia. Say embargo, just say embargo. "We are not allowing solar panels to be sold here that are not made here." Easy peasy.

AngelousSix66

You are right. What I meant to say is that solar coming from SG will also be tarrifed along with every other country in SE Asia.

threeriversbikeguy

Other stores may be different but I work at one of the bigger retail chains in America and we simply have no pending orders out of SE Asia or China right now. Theoretically we could run out stuff right now. Everyone is still banking on tariffs breaking once the hurt sets in, but again Trump doesn't have to run a reelection campaign.

throwawayainteasy

We're actually going back to "Oriental" now. I'm SE Asian and approve it as better than anything else.

amiracana

They won't care. Chinese people pride themselves on "Eating bitter" which is ingrained in them from young age. They also in general are willing to sacrifice for the greater good, unlike the US. They control all the supplies chains of damn near everything. Just can't make ASML machines... yet. And just to add to goodmorning's post, the best Chinese factories long ago moved to Vietnam, and SE Asia. The really good ones already are in Europe and America. Go to Italy and who do you think controls the textile industry. It's a specific people of China from Wenzhou. It's a sad truth that whatever Trump and his allies are doing, they are either intentional on ruining lives, or just don't really understand how connected these two countries are. Adding a little tariff here and there may have made some money, kept allies, and with other American subsidies or incentives, maybe brought back manufacturing to some industries. To think it's all gonna come back is absolutely the dumbest shit.

Primary-History-788

It’s a cult. Rationality is out the window. I know, first hand, how some normally intelligent people are so turned around, they can’t see outside of the narrative. When everything goes sideways, the right-wing, media machine will invent some scapegoat, so these fools won’t have to recon with their entire world view was a lie, perpetrated against them, to work against their own interests. Instead, they will double down. And civility will further erode. We are working on pulling up stakes, getting f*** out, while the getting is still good. I just hope the housing market holds up long enough for us to take a decent chunk of change, with us to SE Asia. Good luck everyone. I hope you figure your way through this next phase of empire, unscathed. 🤞

buttfarts7

Global supply chains just got upended. The world will be fine. Europe, Australia, Japan, SE Asia, Canada and China are going to get through this together by collectively working to devalue the US dollar in unison, opening free trade between each other and icing the US out entirely. The world still has each other. America is alone with itself

toyboxer_XY

> How is china making people not place orders? They're not negotiating or attempting to reach a compromise, and instead are matching tariffs, leading to escalation. > You do realize this hurts china too right? A lot of foreign governments believe that appeasement will be worse. There's a lot of video of SE Asian government figures discussing this in terms of extortion, or as giving in to a playground bully - including traditional US allies like Japan.

throwawayainteasy

Because American rice is terrible? I eat a ton of rice. Most American rice is pretty garbage compared to most SE Asian options (there are some good sources, but they're pretty few and far between).

LePatriot

I am from South East Asia, and we just hosted Xi visit a few days ago. If Trump is waiting for a call from Xi, it will not happen, because Xi is currently on a business trip to convince SE Asian nations to strengthen their trade with China instead of suffering from idiotic tariff from the U.S.

chocolatepickledude

You lazy weirdos need to do better. "When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

Agreed. "When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

Not a reach at all. "When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

"When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

"When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

"When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio [OR] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg

chocolatepickledude

"When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio \[OR\] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - [https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe\_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y\_CztAg\_aem\_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg](https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg)

chocolatepickledude

# Racist white Americans never actually went anywhere. MLK got shot in the face and white Americans declared racism as “over” without any reparations and or corrective action. MLK was essentially killed by the MAGATS of his day, but MAGATS have high jacked his image, and used him as a symbol of pacifism. Alot of this P2025, is the just a rehash of previous white nationalist / American actions and history. There’s a very particular reason why white conservatives are attacking education curriculums and i believe this is it. Once you scratch slightly beneath the surface, white American history is objectively disgusting and shameful. All of that, “pull yourselves by the bootstraps” shit seemingly doesn’t work on well read people. It’s some pretty scumbaggy shit. i highly recommend anyone to gain an understanding of how groups like ISIS and other religious terror organizations work. The parallels between MAGA - White Nationalism and groups like ISIS are fairly disturbing. When you all get a chance, compare the terms “takfir(i) and RINO - “Republican in Name Only” and this is just one of many comparisons you can make. The differences mostly come down to skin color and each group says “god”... These “white grievance” weirdos are really something else. They don’t read, understand how your government and economic systems work at an 8th grade level, want to undermine progress, be cult members and all of this while they somehow play the “victim” for being called out. # VanillaISIS # ALSO Check out this study from the university of Maryland, it’s free for download. When compared to individuals associated with a right-wing ideology, individuals adhering to a left-wing ideology had 68% lower odds of engaging in violent (vs. non-violent) radical behavior (b = -1.15, SE = 0.13, odds ratio \[OR\] = 0.32, p < .001). On the other hand, the difference between individuals motivated by Islamist and right-wing causes was not significant (b = 0.05, SE = 0.14, OR = 1.05, p = .747). Expressed in terms of predicted probabilities, the probability of left-wing violent attack was 0.33, that of right-wing violent attack was 0.61, and that of Islamist violent attack was 0.62. These findings remained robust after we controlled for demographic variables (sex, age, education, minority status, immigration status), prior criminal experiences, military experience, and decade in which the perpetrator entered the database. Of the control variables, immigrants were less likely to engage in violence. Those who had a prior violent criminal record were more likely to engage in violence. Further, older individuals and those identified as white were less likely to engage in violence in this sample. Finally, when contrasted with the 2010s, persons whose date of exposure was in the 1970s and 1980s were more likely to be violent and those in the 2000s were less likely.” - [https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe\_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y\_CztAg\_aem\_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg](https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/comparison-political-violence-left-wing-right-wing-and-islamist-extremists-united?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3sFN-atE81W7Re3KwXGsQV3UlIkYe_N02pfPONSJkz6shTYNS6y_CztAg_aem_Wu3QFB5-6MFhvyQRsnBSBg)

Kakeru1370

As someone who lives in SE Asia, even most of the toys here are made in China.

goodbodha

The supply shock is going to be epic. 80 ship voyages cancelled. Ship sizes vary but that could easily be 800,000-1,600,000 twenty foot cargo containers that wont show up in here over the next 4-12 weeks. Think back to the covid supply chain shocks. This will be worse for some categories of products. We will rapidly empty out the bulk of the products you find in Walmart, Target, most mall retail shops, the knick knacks in Home depot and Lowes. Just as an example.... ecosmart light bulbs are made in China. That is a large chunk of the light bulbs on a typical light bulb aisle... gone once supplies run out. I figure shirts, shoes, toys, electronics, kitchen stuff, and quite a few other high consumption categories are all going to see a huge shock. Even if just half of it comes from SE Asia you will see a massive price spike. The Chinese produced goods will simply vanish and the SE Asia stuff will dwindle rapidly. Replacements wont be forthcoming from some other country anytime soon. If you want to go down the rabbit hole go look at the various subreddits for retail stores. I saw something this morning where someone at either Lowes or Home Depot was going around doing price changes. He was talking big spikes to prices. You could say they are gouging, but I think its a pragmatic solution to slow the hoarding that will otherwise occur when people find out just how bad this is going to be.

evil_illustrator

Where are eggs cheaper? No where in the SE as far as I can tell. They've been sitting around $4.99 for the past 3 months.

spudmechanic

XI spent the past week touring SE Asian countries, shoring up free trade alliances

timeforachangee

I can only speak from personal experience as I have traveled around Asia. I haven’t traveled South America or Africa but both would very likely be less safe. I am FIREing to SE Asia in a few years but some also choose South America.

Ok_Cry7572

Well the really poor counties aren't worth living, they're poor for a reason. SE Asia isn't really poo

notgaynotbear

The head of the SE can delist stocks. They claim that most publicly traded Chinese stocks don't comply with Gap laws which gives them unfair advantage in the market and reason to delist them.

Peliquin

Just going to choose a product I know something about to help illustrate this. Let's say that you are importing 1/2 size sewing machines for people who live in campers, vans, and tiny homes. Let's say each assembled and tuned machine costs 350 dollars to import. You are selling them for $500 with a small accessories package. With the new tariff, your cost is now \~$860 per machine, and you'd need to sell them for \~$1000 dollars to keep making the same profit as before. The demand for this item is probably going to crater if you keep going as is. Let's say you set the new price point at $800 dollars, and you reduce your profit per machine to $100 dollars. That leaves you with $700 dollars to import each machine. You can obviously change the quality of the machine and 'cheap out' in that way to reduce the total cost to something the customer can bear. But this comes with more warranty expenses and maybe a trashed reputation. Ugh. You could 'disguise' the actual costs by having the machine itself cost 700, and then the customer can choose a basic motor, upgraded motor, or hand crank for various prices and a basic accessories package or expanded accessories package, so it LOOKS like the same price, but the model you were selling for 500 is now actually 1000. This may piss customers off, and people are savvy to this sort of "starting at only $XXX!" type of pricing now A better choice MAY be to import sub-assemblies that cost less than the completed machine and finish assembly on US soil. If your business is small enough, this may involve minimal cost to you (as the owner's time is functionally free at that stage.) But it's a lot of work to go from a dropship situation to having a small inventory that you hand assemble and then ship out. It may make the business somewhat unworkable if it was nearly 100% passive income. You can identify a different manufacturer, likely in Taiwan or India. But let me switch gears again -- there's actually quite a bit of manufacturing still available in the US, depending on what you are making and how much you want. The trouble is, it hasn't been doing a good job advocating for itself. Another issue is that quite a bit of our manufacturing industry rejiggered itself to do "samples" or "prototypes" and the person who does that is not setup for production, and while they may do small batches, it will necessarily be costly af. But we absolutely have places that can do mid-sized batches at good prices in certain spaces. Clothing/Soft goods assembly can actually be cost effective in the US because of low wages in the SE and SW of the US. For the quality that those operations are capable of producing, the cost is probably more than competitive with Chinese manufactured goods of the same quality. (If you need help in this space, DM or chat me, I can point you in a powerful direction.) 3D printing and CNC machining may make the manufacture of small items cost effective in the US. (I find that these places don't get back to you.) We actually still do a lot of plastic injection molding here in the US. The trouble is getting a mold made these days. That's very costly. Feel free to reach out.

Judgment_Unlikely

He’s in SE Asia making deals

Raise_A_Thoth

Volatility, baby! The recovery was mostly substanceless, the geopolitical situation has hardly stabilized, the EU has said they are doubtful they'll meet Trump admin demands for meaningful reduction in tariffs, tariffs on SE Asia have risen, some retail industry rise in spending may indicate people spiking purchases in efforts to stockpile before inflation hits . . . *It's still a Trade War, Jerry!*

duhdamn

Here in Thailand the Chinese have been putting local manufacturers out of business. Thai are often of Chinese decent and have some remaining cultural ties. Despite that, most are really sick of aggressive, corrupt, deceitful Chinese business practices. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Thailand agreed to a massive blockade of Chinese goods to align with a new American aligned trading block. SE Asia, as a whole, already makes most of what china exports. An earthquake recently toppled a high rise government building. It was the only one to collapse and was Chinese designed and built. Substandard materials, both concrete and steel, were found in the rubble. The Thai people are beyond fed up with China.

TheMysteryCheese

Anything over 60% is an effective embargo. Also, you do realise that kills your advanced manufacturing and production capacity because you rely on cheap intermediary parts from China? Also, they have looked you out of Boeing parts, killed Telsa production, and stopped all postage? You do not have the ability to replicate Chinese manufacturing in scale or cost in the time it will take for you to be plunged into a tech dark age. And even if you lift them right now, it's too late, China is already finding new buyers to take up the 15% trade that the US represents with SE Asia and Europe through green tech. These terrific only hurt your economy long run. Short-term China has turbulence while some manufacturing shuts down, but then new markets are sourced, and the economy as a whole rebound. While the USA will have to build a multi trillion dollar manufacturing base while not being able to fix their military, build advanced technology, produce a large amount of necessary pharmaceuticals and have to replace consumer demand domestically. You are going to be turned into a nation of farmers and factory workers, lose your ability to maintain military supremacy, and likely lose all global relevance. Let me be very fucking clear. I. Do. Not. Want. This. This is a fucking burning trash heap wrapped in a nightmare. You stupid cunts are on the verge of blowing up the global fucking economy and you keep fucking cheering.

Nice_Dependent_7317

Uncle Xi is too busy with his SE Asia tour to make deals and not giving a flying fk about whatever that Cheeto is whining about.

greywar777

Funny story thats EXACTLY what China is saying right now too, that they will use the US imposed tariffs and behaviors to isolate us from potential trading partners, and our usual trading partners. While Trump is threatening our neighbors and Greenland with our military, and demanding that people call him now to negotiate.....Chinas Xi Jinping is touring SE Asia and making deals. I believe he is in Malaysia today. And I can guarantee folks that malaysia has issues with the current 10% and 24% in 90 days tariffs. Meanwhile Chin is talking free trade.

Rupperrt

You can make a leather bag or moderately complex dress for like $3 and scale that almost infinitely in SE Asia, and large part of the production is already automated (laser cutting). The things that aren’t automated aren’t for 2 main reasons: • Fabric Handling Issues: Robots struggle with stretchy, slippery fabrics (e.g., silk, spandex) compared to human hands. • High Costs: Retrofitting factories with robotics requires massive investment (unfeasible for manufacturers).

Rupperrt

There isn’t more slave labor in China (6 day/week factory jobs) than in the US (farming jobs by paperless immigrants). Most insignificant things are made in SE Asia as China salaries are too high already. Parts of those could possibly described as slave labor, esp in Bangladesh.

Weak-Mine-6996

The 245% is only on a few categories as I understand? We are so boned…US economy was 3 months from a soft landing as China dealt with credit downgrades and a real estate crisis. Really sad to see 80 years of work by the American people sacrificed. China was weakening and unpopular in SE Asia..until this administration proved there’s no such thing as good faith. Behind in AI and almost unable to feasibly provide more stimulus until it was gifted to them.

Fragrant_Witness_713

I play some currency (moved abroad in 2018) plus I do some foreign ETFs and some individual stocks. All exchanges work, but you have different requirements to trade on each. I live in SE Asia... split time between Vietnam and Singapore. Singapore exchange is the largest and most trustworthy in asia IMHO: [https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/buying-stocks-in-singapore/](https://www.investasian.com/stock-market/buying-stocks-in-singapore/)

chunk555my666

The CCP saw this coming and planned for it. They also knew their OEM industry would slow, so they did the logical thing and planned for that. But, the real kick to the balls is that China is currently on a fuck America tour in SE Asia being like see, your ally will abandon you, come play with us or don't and suffer. The other thing here is that Xi is all about face (guanxi) and Trump has created a scenario where Xi has to triple down to save face or look weak to the world in his eyes. And, after a decade plus in Asia, I can tell you that people there would rather live in a cardboard box slurping gutter oil than be someone's bitch. I admire them for that! Hell, we all should, especially when the CCP is going to use that to roll Trump and Putin over the coals for fun. In short, Trump done fucked up, the market isn't going to improve, be prepared for things to escalate, it's going to be uglier than Trump's tiny schmeckle.