TSLA

vermilli21

Odds of TSLA going to 350 tomorrow morning?

ryankrameretc

He absolutely could; Musk sold roughly $6.9 billion worth of Tesla (TSLA) stock in a single week in November 2021

ImadeJesusLaugh

TSLA puts. SPY Calls

Altruistic_Guess_49

!banbet TSLA 430 18h

floo82

TSLA 350, NVDA 180 sooner rather than later, that's for sure

Rare-ish_Birb

Is TSLA made of corn too? Asking for my poots.

OddDescription4523

Probably the main thing to consider right now is your tax burden. I think your instincts are right that you don't want to just leave it as is; you probably want to consolidate it into safer (or at least less volatile) options. But, if you sell what you have, you'll have to pay taxes on it, and at 22 that could be a real problem. This is some important information: if you've held a stock for at least a year and a day, you only pay capital gains tax on it, which is generally 15%. So let's say you wanted to get rid of all your Tesla, so you sold roughly $60k worth of that stock. Google tells me TSLA traded at about $13/share on March 1, 2016, and it's now about $412 a share. (God bless Grandma.) To make it easy, let's just say you bought at $13/share and sell at $413/share, so you make $400 profit per share on 145 shares (that would be about $60k). Your gains would be $400 x 145 shares = $58,000. Since these are long-term gains (you held them more than a year), you'd owe 15% in taxes, which is $8,700. I don't know about you, but when I was 22, being surprised with an $8700 tax bill would have been a disaster. So, if you sell off a good portion of your portfolio so that you can put it in more cautious choices, be sure to hold some of the proceeds from the sale back to cover your tax burden. If there's anything in there that you've held for *less* than a year, then proceeds from the sale would count as ordinary income, in which case it just adds onto whatever you've earned in wages for the year. That might be a reason to hold onto some things so you could split the sales across two different years so you don't get hit with the full tax burden in one go. But, then of course you're risking a major drop in price while you hold it. You've just got to decide for yourself what level of risk you want to take vs. tax burden. In terms of what to put your portfolio into once you've sold the old holdings (or however much of them you're going to sell), you probably want to buy broad index-based ETFs. ETFs that track the S&P 500 as a whole like VTI, or ones that broadly track big companies (called "large-cap", meaning their market value is at least $10B) like VOO or IVV are usually where you want to go to get wide exposure. Right now is a bit of an odd time, though. There are some signs that we're in a bubble, and bubbles pop, and when they do, the whole market goes down hard, so having diversified doesn't protect you. No one can know for certain if we're in a bubble, or if we are how long before it pops, but just know that there is some reason to consider doing something other than the standard advice of putting it all in something like VTI or VOO. One option is to put a portion in an ETF that only holds things not based in the U.S., since that's where the bubble is if there's a bubble at all. VXUS is the ETF I'd recommend if you want to go that way. Another option is to just hold a bunch of it in cash in a high-yield savings account (HYSA) for a while. You could probably earn close to 3.5% interest in a HYSA while waiting to see if the bubble bursts or if fears of a bubble calm down. If there is a bubble and it bursts, then you've got your cash available to buy up equities on the cheap - much better to buy VOO or VTI after it's dropped 25%, right? Of course, if fears of a bubble are wrong, then things will have continued getting more expensive while you were only getting 3.5% interest on your money, so in that case you will have missed out on 6 months or 12 months or whatever that your money could have been growing faster. The last paragraph was trying to lay out (a) what people would normally suggest, (b) why that might not be best right now, and (c) what to consider given the worries of a bubble. Here, I'll give you my concrete recommendation. To let you know where I stand, I think we are in a bubble, so I've been selling most of the stocks that I've held for more than a year and moved the money into a HYSA. That being said, I've moved myself from about 97% stocks/3% cash to about 80% stocks/20% cash, so I'm still heavily invested and not willing to pay the extra taxes for short-term holdings just to get out now now now. If you don't want to learn about stock investing and just want a concrete plan, here's what I would do with a $120k portfolio that I wanted to make more cautious. First, sell off all individual stocks that have been held over a year. Things held a year or less, I'd hold onto them until they reach that year-and-a-day threshold then sell them. I'd put probably 80% of the money I now have in a HYSA, 10% in VOO and 10% in VXUS. Then every month, I'd buy like $3k worth of VOO and the same of VXUS, so I'm slowly moving the balance of cash to equities. If there's a crash and things become really cheap, jump on it to buy VOO and, if there are a couple big name companies you want to get, go ahead and buy a couple thousand dollars worth of them. Otherwise, just keep doing those monthly purchases until you're at something like 80% equities/20% cash. After that, when you have extra income available, buy more VOO, but always keep enough in cash so that if some disaster struck and you were suddenly without a job or place to live, you could afford to cover the necessities for 6 months. For the money you've invested, don't even look at it. The market will go up and down, but unless things go catastrophically different than they ever have before, the long-term trend will be up, so don't let yourself worry about a down week or even month; just know that when you're in your late 60s, you'll see just how much your money has helped you make more money!

KittyLover-7

Fuck you meta, sofi, hood Ofcourse I picked you rather than TSLA

dasboot523

Looking forward to TSLA being flat or slightly green tomorrow as spy is -2%

mikemccrea

Yeah i had trouble shorting TSLA back in 2020 but I actually timed the March crash incredibly well.. I just think if the market pulls back 10%, high fliers could still see 25% drawdowns... where as how much more does BTC really have to fall before it actually becomes... value lol

mikemccrea

What's the best short in the market right now? i almost think MU and SNDK have the most to fall but I could get behind shorting TSLA for revenge

Bkcntrybnd

MSFT has had consistently wonderful earnings, yet its hare price has sunk earnings report after earnings report. Down over 20% in 6 months, and continues falling. NVDA, TSLA, META, AMZN, even DIS, none have performed as poorly as MSFT. Not even close. A climb back up will take astronomical numbers, with zero glitches. In this environment? Seems the tide has turned, despite all the keyboard love that never ends for the stock - which does not translate into share value, ever. When earnings miss by even a hair expect steep steep declines. Unpopular opinion for sure, but the looking at past earnings, and reading the tea leaves, the short term future does not look bright but very flat.

blorg

You can, if you want to lose money. It's such a tiny amount that it's a small amount of money, but there are plenty of ways to do it. There's even a short TSLA ETF, TSLQ, you can just add that in the percentage it takes up of the index. You can also short, or use derivatives. https://testfol.io/?s=lBgZjaamWhg https://testfol.io/?s=3x6pcoGUOXu

BarbellPadawan

TSLA sold 20,000 cyber trucks in the US last year? Who is unironically buying that POS??

OneTwoThreePooAndPee

I keep holding a small TSLA put position just so I can get some enjoyment when it finally all collapses.

No_Egg3924

Bought CALL options few times and it was all AMD, SPY, ORCL, TSLA, MSTR like that and entire market went down last year

Commercial_Sleep_735

In reality, holding TSLA right now is not a wise choice. Its core business is being impacted, and new growth points, including robotics, FSD, and AI, are still largely a story, but the market has already factored these stories into TSLA's value. Do you still think it has potential? Seriously, I'd rather invest in cryptocurrencies, so building a more secure and diversified portfolio is what you need to do now.

MaleCowShitDetector

Well I would definitely divest from TSLA into either an ETF or a more balanced portfolio

Rock_or_Rol

Wbt puts on the bad guys? Black rock, PLTR, 3M, TSLA, IBIT, MSTR.. (the rest of the market)

WendyDumpsterFire

I’m drunk but I’m gonna say fuck ADBE MSFT NVDA, GOOG, ORCL, FIG, TSLA, etc

Comfortable_Radio_59

Performance this quarter is largely a function of prior management (especially the dilution..). Q2 of this year will be the first real read into this management teams grasp on the business, and they soft guided to positive EBITDA on the call on Thursday. If they meet that, the stock will likely go to ATH quickly. The parallels to TSLA are pretty strong here IMO. Business model that everybody says is impossible, tough industry ripe for disruption, mission driven, management promising big things, yada, yada. We shall see. You have to be out of your mind to be short the stock going into the close on Monday, very high chance of numerous insider buys.

HeadPaleontologist40

If you are diligent and with luck, some of your stocks may hit big. I FIRE’d at 49 mainly thanks to going all in and adding to AAPL since the first iPhone released (~$5 a share). Then the last decade I focused on investing as much as I can in to good stocks and index funds. I know people will say I lucked in to wealth but I also had other big hits like GOOG, NFLX, TSLA, SHOP, NVDA to name a few.

chuckb6174

God Bless that Lady. Don't sell TSLA stock......

TheAvidAquarian

You probably understand more than you think because having 50% in TSLA moving forward likely isn’t wise so I agree with you there. I’d reduce the TSLA holdings to at least 20-30% instead. And I would move into ETFs with less volatility than TSLA as many have suggested. Looking into some gold backed ETFs specifically could take this up to the next level. You can actually use AI to help you search for tickers that at least somewhat match your interest or values. Your grandmother is/was a treasure! Good luck to you.

Giftpilz

Do you have an IRA? If I were in your position, I'd open one immediately, and sell enough TSLA to then max out contributions for both 2025 and 2026.

No-Influence-2760

Honestly I have TRIED to reduce my holding percentage of it several times and it keeps rising to the top. This Includes a portfolio that had even parts 20% of TSLA, SCHD, BST, and CII. Tesla continually reaches the 25% of holdings while the others stay in the 20% range.

whawkins4

Step 1: Sell it all. If you recently inherited it, cost basis should be near zero. So capital gains will be negligible. And gambling your life on Elon being able to keep TSLA propped up forever doesn’t seem very smart, even though he’s on a pretty good run. That’s what you would be doing if you DIDN’T sell. I do not believe anyone is going to buy a personal robot anytime soon and TSLA valuations are based on dreams and fictions. Step 2. Reinvest almost all of it immediately in a mix of index funds with high volume that expose you to the broad market. A lot of people choose SPY for this. Do NOT try to learn to be an individual stock picker with granny’s generous gift. Do NOT try to trade options based on which direction you think the price of TSLA is blowing. Just buy it and hold it. Thank granny for her generosity and show that you’re a good steward of it by thinking long term. Check in with whatever you choose once a quarter.

big_marlin444

Currently doing blood rituals for our stocks to green dildo next week. Lmk any tickers you’d like Rn it’s RKLB TSLA NBIS MSFT NVDA PLTR

OriginalTangle

TSLA is *still* profitable but the trend is pointing in a clear direction and it's not a fluke. There are reasons for the decline and no respite in sight.

Rav_3d

For all we know3 Grandma bought TSLA when it was trading under $10 (split adjusted). People let Elon and politics dissuade them from investing in TSLA but the stock has been a stellar performer and continues to hold up. And if he is going to make his trillion dollars, it means Tesla stock will 10X from here. Poor OP is going to squander his grandmother's hard earned portfolio listening to conservative opinions here.

Crazy_Donkies

Not everything is a conspiracy. If they could manipulate it, why not just manipulate it up, like CVNA or TSLA.

Minimum_Ordinary_243

I’m going to get downvoted for this but I would sell the TSLA and have it as cash in your brokerage account and be in cash until the next downturn. TSLAs share price is obscenely overheated and is disconnected from real earnings Hold the cash until everyone on Reddit, Twitter etc is completely panicking and saying it’s all over, I lot everything with leverage, sell everything it’s over, then re deploy into a broad ETF

AdamN

Lots of mixed advice here. Head over to r/personalfinance which has a windfalls wiki. Then consider derisking the TSLA since that seems like the largest position. No need to sell it all. People here want you to move to an etf but in some sense you already have that (with some excess concentration). Anything you sell will incur capital gains tax so be thoughtful about selling. Print out and read the 10K for each stock and see if you want to continue with your grandmother’s conviction. Take your time - there will be volatility but you need to think long term. Don’t get spooked if your portfolio drops by a third.

faramaobscena

Sell TSLA and buy an all world index fund.

CaliHusker83

TSLA at $32/share before any splits in 2010 when no one knew who they were.

Shadow_Fire369

An April 17 TSLA 535 call and 2,869 shares of MOBX

MyCupO

With last $300 left in the account, that is the last thing I can do and actually worked. Nowadays it is harder as TSLA options was a gold mine a few years back.

vermilli21

I’ll buy TSLA when I actually see the sex robots

Organic-Lie4759

Watching 🌽 crash, TSLA slow bleeding out, and crypto mines closing just all makes me happier than shit, ngl.

Ok_Cry7572

The only mag 7 companies I think that will still exist in 100 years will be, TSLA, AMZN

Run-Forever1989

Try TSLA next time.

vermilli21

TSLA ended red and SPY is green. The world is healing

staburself321

I take pleasure in TSLA still being red

G48ST4R

Trump starts a war in Iran, the stock market crashes except for TSLA, which will go up 83%.

TheoryInttro

Uh, why TSLA not pumping? I thought the market liked crime?

saw-it

TSLA holding us back from 690

KittyLover-7

Why is spx drawing TSLA logo LOOL

Valkorion335786

Sold TSLA 410c on this pump, i'd like to escape with a palty 50% profit instead of my precalculated 1,000%

PhasedVenturer

And yet TSLA never tanks...

LeakMyBigBowls

TSLA 415 please

vermilli21

Fuck TSLA, why is that shit barcoding

ComprehensivePost280

Why is TSLA not going up? Austin sales are 🆙

Valkorion335786

Will TSLA close at 420 today? I mean that's honestly the question of the day

AccountOfMyAncestors

Omg, TSLA 🫣

PerformerDizzy1368

It’s okay TSLA, you can let go of the cliff

paralogistic

How can people believe in the growth story of TSLA when revenue is declining and the PE ratio is 40 times higher than the average auto maker

Mr_Doubtful

Calls it is boy! What are we thinking, TSLA up 4% today?

ProblemOk4641

All the recent bad news should have tanked the market yet $TSLA is still trading at $409 🤷‍♂️

whyshw

TSLA to 500 by end of March

ETFBro4DaWinz

Yes DJT, TSLA and all these unprofitable AI IPOs coming up are *meritocratic*

Worried_Quarter469

Surprised TSLA didn’t fight more at 420

meemeemoomoo5

Most people won't even pick PLTR or TSLA if they have to choose one company.

Street-Badger

TSLA max pain is 400-420 until heat death of the universe.  Too much premium to hoover up

CriticalBlackberry90

This bitch going DOWN today. Puts on TSLA ASTS and NBIS

Sensitive-Radish-292

Step 1: Accept that you are wrong - you contradict yourself ("if I took 2-3 week longer options...") Step 2: Stop trying to gamble back your losses, read about managing tilt (poker books focus on this), it will help you identify that right now you're tilting, trying to do the next big win. Why do I say this? Well it's so fucking obvious from your graph - all those little spikes upwards those are moments when you could've taken back some of what you did win but chose to be a greedy tilting mor\*n instead. Step 3: Realize that proper speculations require more than just looking at a single company and looking for confirmation bias. LLMs will feed you garbage, just look at aleabito - dude had a few questionable wins during a bull run, gathered a following and now he outputs LLM bullshit that is just wrong and lacks any actual market research. He's now actively pushing questionable stocks that get pumped purely because his followers mass buy options forcing MMs to hedge. Step 4: If anything, go bogglehead for a very long time, until you calm yourself down (read the tilt management books). But go for a less US-exposed passive investment strategy (more balanced). I'm saying this mainly because right now the US market is really overvalued and it's just waiting for a brutal correction. If you don't believe me look at shitcos like RPI, AXTI, IONQ, SNDK, TSLA, etc. questionable financials, propped up by hype and unrealistic growth projections completely disconnected from reality. Step 5: Read a few books, go outside while you're a passive investor, try to really notice the mistakes you made that they mention in those books. If you want to ever come back, look for less risky strategies (like options writing on a cash account, i.e. lvl3 cash options, but starting with CCs).

Ghost_of_Durruti

New Portfolio idea: 30% PLTR, 30% TSLA, 30% OPEN, 10% physical platinum.

Iunatic

CVNA PLTR MSTR TSLA calls. Sounds retarded so it will probably work.

superteed

TSLA and PLTR shorts.

fresh_like_Oprah

Short TSLA

Stoopidee

Buy TSLA calls. Make back that money!

Itrademylittlespy

I’d say buy 0DTE TSLA Calls

Ok_Chain4973

TSLA

jerrysburner

How this dumpster fire of a company has lasted as long as it has is just shocking...that said, if I were a betting man, I would have been doing the same with TSLA, but that company also beats the odds non-stop but I hope you win on this bet - I know (I guess not for a fact) they're committing some type of fraud - likely securities ;-) but it's a shady business that kept "winning" somehow

ANTI_FASCIST_USA

Yup. Fuck TSLA. Hope OP shares the loss porn

Tricky-Ad-6225

Really depends on your risk appetite. Do you want 10% average return on that $7k, do you want to turn that $7k into $20k and are comfortable holding it through the highs and lows. I hate TSLA but that could combine with SpaceX and trade at a 100000x PE, you could be safe with VOO, you could diversify it, or IMO put it all in MDA (Canadian company). My current favorite play.

RIPSAREFUTING

Do TSLA next

CalebVanPoneisen

Have you even looked up current robot capabilities? We're at least 10 years away from functional home robots. The only way this is going to pay out is if TSLA puts people in robot suits and send them to help people with a weird fetish.

Xuande

This is seriously regarded, but knowing how TSLA works I'm sure it will pop tomorrow to 600p/e.

UntangledMess2215

Say that to TSLA holders lol 

SexySkyLabTechnician

And yet $TSLA persists somehow

DoinIt4DaShorteez

yes. I kind of wanted to get it out fast but here's maybe a slightly better version. Just as an example, say you have a defensive portfolio that's half a buncha pharma and staples and utilities and the other half in VOO or similar. On days where VOO is up 1%, your portfolio is only up 0.5%. But on days when VOO is **down** 1%, your portfolio is only down 0.5% We'll just say they're always correlated that way. Your portfolio always does 1/2 the swing of VOO in both direction. But you decide the portfolio is too defensive, and you just want to go 100% VOO. Since the market is up more days than it's down, over any decent amount of time, if you chart VOO and your portfolio on the same chart, not only is VOO outperforming, but its line is continuously diverging from your portfolio and its outperformance is getting steeper. So in that situation, the longer you wait to switch it all, the more you lose out on. I would agree that for volatile individual stocks, if you have a feel for them, and you think there might be a catalyst(s) there could be a benefit to either A) tranching or B) waiting for an opportunity where TSLA is up 10% on a day when VEQT is down 2%. Or both. Tranche, but jump all over that +10%/-2% day and over-tranche on that day.

blusimz

How does TSLA work?

WendyDumpsterFire

Fuck you ADBE, MSFT, TSLA, FIG, NVDA, AMD, META, ORCL, AMZN, NFLX, and fuck you hedges too

CriticalBlackberry90

Thinking that I just buy TSLA 600C for some time later this year. It's going to hit. Why? Because the stock is bullshit and they'll moon it for no reason.

Valkorion335786

Well atleast TSLA poots printed Fuck you Elon Prick

Emilio___Molestevez

I met Ross Gerber after a game in 2014 and he said buy $TSLA and $NFLX which was good advice but now they're down on the 1M chart so I pretend to be smarter than he is

Magikarp_to_Gyarados

Agree completely. I'm in the same approximate age group as you, and have been an investor through the Dotcom bubble and Great Recession. I think it is likely that the AI bubble could burst in the near future, though I can't say whether this might happen 3 days or 3+ years from now. If things go south from a wave of bad debt issued by companies speculating on AI datacenter infrastructure, I expect the markets to crash hard. I've warned people not to take excessive risk on stocks like PLTR. I think it's possible that TSLA loses 85% of its valuation (and I say this as someone who owns TSLA stock, but am not dependent on it for my financial wellbeing). I've tilted my portfolio defensively over the past year. As I am now retired, it is more important that I not take excessive risk.

CriticalBlackberry90

Yeah, we're just gonna pump like crazy when the market decides to change up sentiment on NVDA earnings. There's just a bunch of bullshit lines that stocks will never go under again. SMCI and 30, MSFT and 390, TSLA and 400, META and 600. We've bottomed for the foreseeable future.

tika_dengu

TSLA is the only stock worth buying long term

leave_youself_behind

What was your nemesis stock ? Mine ASTS and TSLA sadly

botella36

TSLA is sleeping with the fishes

Aromatic-Ad-6244

Can't win with PUTs, can't win with CALLS, yep that's right, hi my name is TSLA.

BenjaminScott09

Yep, same here 😄 NVDA leads, so I’m watching it first. For TSLA and Amazon, I’m scaling in near support and waiting for a confirmed move.

Fitzaroo

Gestures at TSLA

B0RIS_Badenov

I like this take - feels more like defined setups than hype chasing. NVDA still looks like the leader, but I’m watching how the others react if it pulls back. TSLA especially feels like it’s building pressure for a bigger move either way. Curious - are you guys waiting for confirmed breakouts, or scaling in near support here?

Cav829

I can't wait for Nvida to announce the greatest earnings in the history of mankind, Jensen Huang to personally promise all of you free leather jackets, but there's one slightly negative thinig on page 756 of their filing that causes a mass sell-off and the whole market to crash except TSLA that goes up another 5%.

Mariox

Lockheed martin growing 5%. GD growing 4%. NOC growing 4.5% Analysts think PLTR is not going to beat their guidance of 62% but I think 2026 growth will be closer to 85%. My estimate for PLTR FCF is $4.6 billion this year and growing to $52 billion in 2030. (based off of Karp's guidance of 10x US revenue over 5 years that he said a year ago) And 80% FCF margin I put a 55 multiple on the P/FCF with a continued 30% growth in 2031 and I get a fair value of $1,247 at the end of 2030. PLTR continues to deploy their platforms faster using less manhours and plan on use AI instead of people in the future to deploy their platforms. Customers sign on and then expand their use of PLTR and those customers get their suppliers onto PLTR. My current estimate for 2026 is 85% growth with a bullish case for 95%. Which does sound crazy but looking at my quarterly estimates for 2026 isn't crazy. If I was forced to buy just 1 company today, i would actually pick PLTR over TSLA just because there is less risk for PLTR. Burry thinks PLTR is a consultancy company. The guy don't even know what PLTR even do.

Individual_Fox4871

TSLA go back to the 180 abyss You shall not PASSSS

Glum_You_6649

Thanks so much for that. So, if I’m reading you correctly, the extent to which the use of tranches becomes useful is based upon the difference in volatility (or general correlation of movement) of either side of the rebalance? That makes sense to me if thats what you mean. For context, I’m not holding any shit stocks or high performers which I have strong convictions about. Its my personal opinion that I dont know enough about individual stocks to dable in it, hence my desire to shift to ETFs. I do, however, hold proportionally outsized positions in a couple zany mofos like NVDA and TSLA, and if my understanding of your point is correct, there would be a decent sized lack of correlation between those and the total-market-equity VEQT. Enough to warrant fucking around with tranches? I donno. Btw, really appreciate your time and thoughts

Valkorion335786

I just want SPY to go over 700 and for TSLA to get delisted IS THIS TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR JFC