Reddit Posts
Can someone please explain in simple terms whether/how an ETP is inherently riskier than a corresponding ETF?
Why is TQQQ / UPRO not considered a good long term investment?
Does a 1/3 3x Equity ETF & 2/3 cash make sense now with cash paying 5%?
Crayon eating journey with my day trading retirement account (Roth IRA) from 7/22 to 3/23
Calculating the expected annual tax drag of a portfolio due to rebalancing
Are there downsides to leveraged index ETFs if you have a long time horizon?
How do you accurately calculate percentage change?
Can leveraged etfs go to zero without index being down 33%+?
The Recession has already happened, and you missed it
America is fine. Our economy is Serena Williams ass, we are going smash glaciers like global warming and as the rest of the world crashes. We are going to bounce very hard into our next evolution. Expect to see the Great Roaring 20s of the 21st century.
Why are leveraged ETFs like UPRO discouraged for long term holding, when just looking at "what if I bought $1000 in year X" pretty consistently shows a 3x return over S&P over those years?
Is it possible to spend all my fund and margin fund on leverage eft and crypto?
38% win rate is enough to beat the market, all you need is consistency
thoughts on my return stacked leveraged ETF portfolios?
Thoughts on my return stacked leveraged portfolios?
thoughts on my return stacked and leveraged portfolios?
Dodged a bullet today with a risk that I would have never foreseen. Way out-of-whack valuation on way otm contract.
Is there something I'm missing? Leverage ETFs seem great.
my boyfriend is obsessed with investing and it worries me?
Backtested a Volatility Strategy From an Academic Paper, Beat Market by 4x
Backtesting a $100k UPRO portfolio with long $HYG puts as a hedge (replacing TMF in HFEA, the Hedgefundie portfolio)
Backtested a Volatility Strategy From an Academic Paper, Beat Market by 4x
Call to Action; FINRA Notice 22-08 (Important if you trade UPRO, TQQQ, TMF)
What are the risks when short selling a leveraged inverse ETF like SQQQ? Other ways to capture value from volatility drag?
Does leveraged funds options take into account decay and expense ratio?
Absolutely retarded apebrained 2x leveraged 60/40 S&P 500 / long term treasury portfolio - looking for feedback
Here are the pros and cons of the healthcare sector [DD]
Here are the pros and cons of the healthcare sector [DD]
Different take on Ray Dalio AWP and Bogleheads 3 Fund Portfolio
Innovator Accelerated ETFs™ Listings in January a decent replacement to hold for UPRO/TQQQ?
Accelerated ETFs™ in January- worth it? Replacement for UPRO/TQQQ for holding long?
I have sold all my TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, UPRO with very good profit. Should I reinvest now or wait? If reinvest, on what? What is cheap now?
Dip Buying BackTesting - SPY & QQQ with Leveraged Accounts
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked great. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked well. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Is anyone else's portfolio in the green besides me this week? Leveraged tangent portfolio at a quasi-risk parity allocation worked well. Rebalancing 10% out of TMF shortly to buy more TQQQ/UPRO at discount prices. Inb4 the usual "hurr durr volatility drag/beta slippage" anti leveraged etf crowd
Recreating hedgefundie's portfolio for cheaper
Anyone just trying to match SPY with minimum drawdowns?
How to 3x the S&P CAGR with less risk | Leverage for the Long Run
HedgeFundie’s Excellent Adventure: Historical Distribution of Rolling Returns. 3X leverage ETF Portfolio
Is there any reason not to use leverage/LEAPS for long term investing?
Buying and holding UPRO for a highly aggressive portfolio, thoughts?
Into the end of 2nd year of my investing career, I seek more guidance/advice from you.
Do you expect the market to hit an ATH between now and February?
(Update) Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Price Action 10 Oct 21 🚀 🚀
Mentions
To answer your top line question on why it’s bad? Because you don’t have the balls to stomach the draw downs. If you can hold, gigantic if there, it can play out. The most I’d recommend holding is something like 1.5x sp500. But seriously the draw downs on 3x will be enormous on 3x. Like “set you back nearly your entire investment career” big. Disclaimer: I hold UPRO lol
Because they don't know what they're talking about. There are no interest rates on UPRO ffs, it's synthetic you don't borrow to get leverage
How would he lose 100% in something like UPRO?
Everyday UPRO resets and begins anew. Losses are realized, without selling. So if the S&P goes from 0 to 3 then UPRO goes from 0 to 9 and then resets. But if the S&P stays flat then the daily resets cause losses… for lack of a better explanation. And if the market goes down then UPRO goes down 3x the amount in to the negative and resets.
well, before you ask why, one can ask if first. 15 years of UPRO, if you can buy and hold, is not bad at all, that said 1. if you really want the leverage, using futures might be cheaper in execution cost, and avoid the volatile change of exposure. 2. Think about the times you may want to spend the money, it might be the time of crisis wherr upro underperforms greatly
I don’t. I just look at UPRO chart since inception and seems like a no brainer
They mean leveraged etfs such as UPRO.
Thinking of selling gold to buy UPRO
Change UPRO to VOO and you got it. How old are you? 40% EDV seems very conservative.
At heart I'm a boglehead who wants to set and forget, but also generally believe a bit of leverage can go a long way. 20% UPRO, 40% VXUS, 40% EDV
At heart I'm a boglehead who wants to set and forget, but I generally believe a bit of leverage can go a long ways. Does a 20% UPRO, 40% VXUS, 40% EDV portfolio sound insane?
PLTR and other meme stocks didn't really show any reaction haha - I did get some UPRO/SSO though that I'm really hoping doesn't come back to bite me on Monday (e.g. Iran attacks a US base).
I bought $200k of UPRO to hold long. We're gonna be rich or we're going to burn down the fucking world.
Just bought UPRO after the dip, kinda worried lol
Haven’t down voted anything. And you’re excluding 2 years of UPRO where it was up 10% and then 98%. That’s a 2 year CAGR of 47%. Which is double your yearly average.
My 200% cumulative return is on the money I've added to my account. But I didn't add everything all at once 5 years ago. I've contributed throughout the 5 years. Obviously if I had every contribution I made back in 2020 and invested it all, my return would be way way way higher than 200%. OTOH, that link you posted IS the return of SPXL starting in 2020 and ending now. So it does assume a lump-sum. To compare apples to apples, you need to use the PortfolioAnalyst feature in my IBKR account and graph a benchmark. Then it will compare your returns vs having used SPXL as an investment the whole time. SPXL is not available but UPRO is (starts in Nov 2022) and so far I'm beating it. Also why are you downvoting my responses? Are you literally four years old?
I am well ahead of SPXL, UPRO, or any such leveraged ETFs.
I might finally get assigned $UPRO on my CSPs
Statistically speaking almost certain someone out there cashed out in Feb, then bought UPRO/Calls/TQQQ April 8th and traded back into normal stock sometime in May/Early June. And I want them to know that I hate them.
Just think if you dumped it all in QQQ or SPY at the start of your video you’d be up 25% just from the market. If you dumped it in SSO double that. If TQQQ or UPRO triple. Either of those three options would have been smarter than what? Smh read more 0DTE puts. SMH lol
You can find leveraged ETF's that are more affordable, TSLL, NVDX, TQQQ, UPRO
UPRO for the win!
60/20/20 - UPRO/TMF/UGL, DCA monthly, enjoy 30 million in 20 years. Feel free to pick this apart I'm still investigating, but pretty dialed in
The key point here is that you're conflating *leverage* with *leveraged ETFs*, but they’re not the same thing. You can get leverage through margin or options and those are direct methods. Leveraged ETFs (like TQQQ or UPRO), on the other hand, are a different animal altogether and actually carry more risk if you're thinking long term. Let us explain: Because LETFs reset daily. That means the compounding effect over time doesn’t work like you’d expect had you bought, say a few stocks with leverage. This reset is where volatility drag can eat into returns — even in a rising market. For example, if the market goes +5%, -5%, +5%, -5%, you're not breaking even with a 3x ETF, you'll most likely be down much more. When you leverage a stock directly, say, by using margin or buying call options, your exposure tracks the underlying asset more linearly, and you control the duration and exit. With LETFs, you're at the mercy of the fund’s *daily* rebalancing, which means your exposure resets every day. That reset compounds poorly over time when volatility is high. So while margin or options give you targeted, customizable leverage, LETFs give you blunt, automatic leverage with built-in decay. One gives you control; the other, complexity.
Lmao i JUST sold covered calls for my UPRO. I'm an inverse machine
Yeah, I’ve always been tempted by real estate because of the cheap money and ability to reasonably leverage money. Hell, if margin was 5% and I could do 5:1 I’d be leveraged to the tits in SPY. Wait… make that UPRO.
\> bitcoin Excuse me what? Nvidia I can see some point but if you really want the thrill invest in LETFs. They actually have businesses anyways. Take a look at SSO UPRO QLD.
Save a lot of money. Look at how the guys at r/Fire are doing. And invest wisely. Invest in ETFs like VOO or QQQM or both. You can throw some money away for fun in r/wallstreetbets but otherwise don't. The post-covid boom definitely helped his case too. And if you want the thrill invest in LETFs like SSO UPRO or QLD. Although I wouldn't recommend that in this market though as they do trend downwards due to interest rates (overall they make a lot of money though).
U would have done better just buying Jan 15, 2027 option contracts of UPRO or TQQQ and hold for a year and sell.
UPRO isn’t my only holding, but even in a sideways market it doesn’t matter to me, I’m holding for 20-40 years. Come closer to retirement I’ll either rebalance or add other investments. But for at least the next 10 years UPRO will for sure be a main focus. I’m not concerned though because I won’t need the money anytime soon, down turns or sideways markets are only a concern nearing retirement or post retirement. Which won’t affect me.
Buy spy. When market crashes, sell and switch to UPRO. Prove me wrong
I don’t know how you’re back testing, and what you’re looking at. If you look at google and see the total returns or if you back tested all of them UPRO come out ahead by a severe amount. Whether it was a 1 time $10,000 lump sum investment, or DCA’ing $500 a month into them UPRO does best. [https://testfol.io](https://testfol.io) We will have to agree to disagree.
I’ve back tested UPRO a 3x leverage S&P500 ETF. It’s not a joke, it outperformed everything since 2009, except bitcoin. Had I known about this sooner, it would’ve been my only investment this whole time. I got rid of VOO immediately for UPRO.
Invest don’t trade. Dollar cost average of GLDM 50%, UPRO 50%. Annual rebalance to 50%/50% or rebalance based on 200d moving average. Beats S&P500 over any 5 year period. Could use a Lower leveraged index like SSO which is 2x index for less volatility and drawdown.
I was there too, probably still am, but I got tired of being right and poor. Full in UPRO right now.
UPRO or SSO. It's such a small amount of money, but your goal is to maximize your lifetime exposure to stocks (especially if you are young). Leverage is a solid way to increase that lifetime exposure when you are young and working with small amounts.
Moved my substantial profit from calls today into UPRO. Let it ride, bitch.
All they know is UPRO and TMF and quarterly rebalance. Anything more modern than a boomer broker UI confuses them
If you check UPRO stock it doesn’t look like it’s decaying at all
UPRO? Should check out SPYU. That’s what the real degens like me use.
There are a variety of 2x-3x things (e.g. SQQQ/UPRO) you could do as a YOLO if you aren't doing puts/calls. I'm not sure what other moonshot mechanisms there are though.
UPRO on the next downturn? Ok
Just bagged a little pre-market profit on $SHNY from the $GLD bump. Rolled it into $UPRO, ready to print more money.
And that's why I'm all in on UPRO!
I'm fucking jacked up on UPRO and TQQQ, we're going to the moon baby
Just put 50k on UPRO so you might want to bet against the market now...
should I buy my UPRO right ASAP or wait to see how market opens?
100% UPRO…3x leveraged S&P. Trying to make up for missing some of the rally.
Maybe I'm missing something, when I look at a long term chart of TQQQ vs QQQ it looks like TQQQ massively outperforms, despite slippage and some brutal drawdowns. TQQQ in blue, QQQ's returns in pink barely visible. Similar results comparing SPY to UPRO. What am I missing? https://preview.redd.it/rctcbyjcigxe1.png?width=1544&format=png&auto=webp&s=869ad0a6ffe55a255195170c5131167bec4df276
Take a look at a long-term comparison chart of TQQQ vs QQQ or UPRO and SPY. The leveraged ETFs outperform significantly even after slippage. Yes, there's more risk, but also more reward, that's a given. I prefer leverage etfs for swing trades, not buy and hold. But assuming markets continue to have a bullish bias as they have historically, buy and hold leveraged index funds on market pullbacks is pretty much a no-brainer. Seems like there are some myths and superstitions about these products, much as there are about options.
I went all in on one of my ROTH on TQQQ and UPRO on Monday and am now up 30%
TQQQ and UPRO until I’m a millionaire. They only go up
I own $300k in UPRO and VOO. Match me in SQQQ and call me in December
??? I’ve already swung UPRO for my money little ber LMAO now go extinct yourself
Playing UPRO, TQQQ, UVIX and SVIX feels like cheating sometimes
I made the mistake of increasingly being uninterested in the market. Doing no research or trades. When volatility spikes it gets my interest back, which I’ve been dollar cost averaging into UPRO and selling CC’s on them. When this volatility goes away, it won’t be in an instant. It will be over a period of time that will phase the traders like me out who get bored. Stay in the market at all times and learn from my mistake.
A mass extinction event has occurred today LMAO! Thank goodness I can still buy into after hours FULL PORT UPRO LMAO bers!!!
Haven't you sell 🪙 yet? Institutional are offloading this week. Time to stay in Europe stocks for few months. When peace deal in Ukraine is done this year time to sell all and go in UPRO
I don't do calls but I'm $300k in UPRO and VOO, will drop another $500k in by Dec 25, so sure, we can compare. !remindme 8 months
lol I am out of my cash available to trade today... I already sold my UPRO calls, check my comment history. Just calling the moves throughout the day
Thinking of holding my UPRO calls in case of announcement we don't know about yet...at this point any not so bad news is great news for the market
Man debating selling my UPRO $56 and $57 calls or holding them till eow
I bailed on UPRO and got into SPXU way too early, so it's feeling a bit like getting slapped and called ugly right now
Soooo when do I switch from SPXU to UPRO? Asking for a friend.
U should not be doing TQQQ cuz that’s 3x leverage. And if you are gonna, might as well do UPRO & UDOW - 3x SPY & 3x DOW Playing some other S&P index’s (leveraged or un-leveraged) other than SPY is better cuz the stocks cost much less, so the premium paid is much less.
I hold UPRO and TQQQ and sell CCs on them all the time (to help with vol decay, and offset the wild rides, buying more when it dips further). If they exercise depending on market conditions I’ll rebuy or sell CSPs on them. I do pretty well with them. If I sell options and then it’s up a lot quickly (like today I sold for next week and it dropped and my CCs were worth 30% less) I’ll buy them back right away because if it swings back the other way back up I like to sell more CCs for better price. They can run on you VERY quickly, but I personally don’t even see the point in selling options for unleveraged stuff, the returns are so small it’s basically pointless.
I picked up some UPRO as a hedge for my short positions. But looking at this action in DJT stock and oil I'm thinking maybe we are about to go to war. Considering adding to the UPRO or going long USO. It seems like someone knows something. Because all indications are we're heading into a major economic slowdown and we ain't going to be needing all that oil. Unless.
Fuck it. Guys, I'm going all in on UPRO and SHNY. See yall on the moon.
I just remind myself that at least it’s not UPRO lol
against all my will, just bought UPRO at 59.23
Bought a little UPRO at $53. I'm doing my part!
VOO? More like UPRO. Which was up 28% today. TQQQ did even better at 35.25%. If you have that inside info and no chance of being prosecuted, why not maximize? I don't even have insider info, but I felt like a genius since I bought both this morning. In reality I got lucky, but still a good feeling.
10x S&P can get wiped out in a bear market. 3x can take a massive hit (like it is). 2x is probably most logical but the margin probably gets eaten alive by the excess expense ratio nearly 1% AUM. I hold UPRO and TQQQ but only with a ton of money I can lose and not have change my life one bit. And it's solely because I'm completely bullish on America
I DCAed into UPRO at $48.5 expecting it to go down some more but holy shit. Up over 30% in a day.
"Monthly theta-harvesting long-dated iron butterfly on UPRO" statements dreamed up by the utterly deranged
Sold 1x S&P 500 ETFs and replaced them with 2x and 3x leveraged ones hoping to ride on the recovery. SPUU, UPRO
55/45 UPRO/TMF https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=272007
UPRO is 3x leveraged. I choose that instead of playing long calls since I'm too highly regarded to play calls.
We’re going to become so rich, you’re not gonna know where to spend all that money. I’m telling you—just watch! Speaking of which, the real question is, do I sell the VOO and buy UPRO to leverage up and take some capital losses or just ride it out? Only time can tell, my 8 ball is blurry, blue, if you will.
I bought UPRO on Thursday afternoon. It did not go well. I feel like you want to wait for confirmation the market is rebounding before you buy a leveraged product. But I'm not sure what would signal that at the moment.
well, since it's 3x, it means that if you time it wrongly and buy 100 bucks of UPRO and if the spy drops an additional 33% more, UPRO will drop 33%\*3 = 99%. So, your 100 bucks will now be worth $1. For 1 to become 100 again, it needs to 100x, which is 10000% pnl. the SPY will need to now grow 10000% / 3 or 3333%. for UPRO to 3x. I am probably messing up the Math on this part, but it's basically the market will need to go up a lot more than it dropped just to break up
Did I break the system by buying both UPRO and SPXU and buying puts on both?
I have both UPRO and SPXU. I should buy puts for both right?
Is it dumb to buy 100 shares of UPRO and 100 shares of SPXU at the same time?
Me yesterday buying UPRO at open https://youtube.com/shorts/bWMriZlT6Ls?si=P29DBKwKqi-mvGxx
Lol. Dude. Shut the fuck up. Anyone who's been in the market for 1+ year is still doing just fine Anyone who's been in the market for 5+ years is still absolutely killing it Anyone who just bought NVDA and UPRO last month is getting fucking killed Take responsibility for your own actions. If you are getting clobbered, that's on you, not the fucking president
Buy TQQQ when QQQ hits its 200 week moving avg. Yes, week. Maybe also UPRO too based on the SPY.
The UPRO/TMF bet is more dangerous than it looks. This completely blew up in 2022 and there's still a thread about it on Boglehead somewhere. I would like to learn more about your macro bets and how you use that to generate signals. I do something similar where I decide what type of market regime we are in, an offshoot of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio then allocate to asset classes based on that and then writing options on them. Based on current macro, I am targeting around .48 beta and leaning heavily into Energy, commodities, gold, and defensives.
Not sure if this is bait. I'll give it a try. Your current approach raises several concerns: 1. **Overleveraged Exposure**: Roughly 30% of your portfolio is tied up in 3x leveraged ETFs (UPRO, TQQQ, TMF, YINN). That’s a significant amount of leverage, and calling YINN your “bold bet” underplays the risk you're already carrying across the board. 2. **Illiquid Underlyings**: Selling strangles on illiquid names erodes your edge. For example, AVUV makes up nearly 9% of your portfolio, yet only three (!) options traded on Friday. Wide bid-ask spreads will eat into your potential profits and increase slippage risk. 3. **Unrealistic Goals**: Targeting a Sharpe Ratio above 1.5 is admirable—but not grounded in reality given your holdings. The volatility drag and drawdowns inherent in LETFs (Leveraged ETFs) make such a Sharpe Ratio highly unlikely, if not unattainable over time. 4. **Lack of Strategic Cohesion**: What’s the actual thesis behind your portfolio? Yeah, AI picked those ETFs for you. We know. The name you’ve chosen sounds polished, but it doesn’t reflect a clear or coherent investment strategy. Do you understand the mechanics or underlying exposures of each ETF you’re trading? “Trading Ideas” in an ETF's name doesn’t cut it as a guiding principle. 5. **Drawdowns Already Happening**: Depending on when you entered these positions, you’ve likely already experienced pain. Just last Friday: * UPRO: -6% * TQQQ: -8% * YINN: -7.3% These are not minor dips—they're warnings about how quickly risk compounds with leverage. All the best to your future trading journey!
Well SSO is up 160% in money weighted return (MWR) since June 2020 and my portfolio is up +189% in MWR in that timeframe. So far, I am coming out ahead, without even considering the tax savings I described. My point is that going forward, I will not just continue to come out ahead but be WAY ahead. UPRO is down like 12% YTD, I am up 10%. It's like not even fair, I'm using a fully diversified portfolio, of course I am going to crush leveraged large cap USA stocks. I use European options, it's impossible to exercise and/or assign. And even if they COULD be exercised, then sure, they get exercised and my cash becomes negative (aka I just borrow on margin from IBKR). As soon as I notice, I can then sell another box spread to erase that margin loan. I don't think you understand this topic very well.
First, stop making trades on your phone and with that bs broker. Cut your losses now and start paper trading for at least 3months, i know its tough to paper trade because you want to be rich right now.. Start by trading the S&P or Nasdaq, MES MNQ TQQQ UPRO, to learn auction market theories(how markets move and how key price levels bring in buyers or sellers. Don’t get caught up on bs trading strategies
SSO/UPRO = USA large cap, with high fees and daily-rebalanced (the volatility drag wrecks its returns long term). My portfolio = Globally-diversified, multi asset, smart-beta, rebalanced based on bands with no fees and super tax efficient as the losses in interest are booked as short-term gains every year. Seriously, which one do you think will come out ahead? I know which one I prefer.
What is your Sharpe ratio for the period posted and what is that of UPRO? Also, I was seeing many top comments reading as if they assumed you are a man, so I guess at least they didn’t come from a sexist place?
My Sharpe is way higher than UPRO, it gets asked almost every time I post. I'm used to the hate. WSBs cannot stand the idea of a woman using a dirt-stupid-simple portfolio with huge leverage beating them year after year.
I think the problem is that this is not a “bro” enough strategy for WSB, hence it’s getting all the hate. Also, just eyeballing your portfolio growth chart, the risk-return is about the same as UPRO (3X SPY). Have you compared the Sharpe ratio of your portfolio to any of the leveraged ETFs or even the vanilla index ETFs over this period?
Back test TQQQ or UPRO and drop the insults. Hope you have a better day.
A common sensible approach is to just use UPRO or SSO to juice your US exposure, and then diversify with alts. Like, RSST gives you 2x by giving you 1:1 SPY/Managed futures, or RSSB, which is 1:1 VT/IEF (essentially), or NTSX gives you 90/60 SPY/IEF. Instead, you can get a way higher volatility contribution from longer duration bonds, which is similar to buying that bond leverage but without the leverage costs. For example, long duration behaves like TYD but without embedded leverage costs. This is by far, in my opinion, the way to go, especially for younger investors. Youth can handle vol, and buying even as much as 2x leverage on raw equities has been shown to be more optimal than unlevered equities in papers like Ayer's and Nalebuffs research on leverage, even in the circumstance that you wipe out in an event like the GFC and start again from zero. I prefer a less crazy approach, and take traditional portfolio construction wisdom and simply add modest leverage to it, slide out on bond duration to the long end, and diversify with managed futures. I get global equity exposure trend following funds, long bonds, and its all great. The three asset classes are uncorrelated to each other, they all have positive real expected returns, and they should help crutch each other when tail events like 2022 (stock and bond simultaneous bear market) occur, or GFC (huge stock bear market butressed by bonds and MF) similar to dot com too,