UPRO

the_leviathan711

What's the point of being 35% QQQ and 15% TQQQ? That adds up to 80% QQQ which you accomplish by just doing 27% TQQ. Same with UPRO and VOO, you're at 55% VOO which you could accomplish with just 18% UPRO. You have the right idea in your last portfolio by having TMF. If you're going to be this heavily leveraged, you need a risk management strategy.

jlevy73

 If the underlying index moves *up* consistently with decent momentum, volatility decay actually works *in your favor*. This is why UPRO, the 3x leveraged S&P 500 ETF, has delivered close to 5x the returns of the index since its inception instead of the proposed 3x. In short, holding leveraged ETFs for more than a day is not the boogeyman it's made out to be. See the link that shows the math [this page](http://www.ddnum.com/articles/leveragedETFs.php). The article shows that an optimal leverage would be 2X, certainly not 5X lol. Now of course, just because it has been demonstrated in the past says nothing about the future. Most people using leverage will use a mitigation strategy such as TMF. Hedgefundie has a great writeup on this as well based on his own experience of holding 55% UPRO / 45% TMF.

patriot2024

>I mean really what difference does a 98% drop in value make vs a 100% drop make? You lost all your money either way. Actually, as long as it's not 0, it's a huge difference. If you bought 100 shares of UPRO 10 years ago, now, you still have 100 shares (after normalizing for splits). To see this, you have to realize that UPRO correlates very well with SP500. If you look at random prices within a 10-year period, you will see the huge gains between UPRO and SP500 because the price per share of UPRO has increased significantly, compared to that of SP500. All the large dips in between are just noises. If you zoom out, the curves of UPRO and SP500 look exactly the same. If you don't believe me, you can use a tool like portfoliovisualizer to simulate this. Pick a random 10-year, 5-year, 3-year interval and compare. I know what I'm talking about because I have done the simulation with my own tools that are more flexible than publicly available tools. All of these articles about "volatility decay" are just theoretical. The math is based on a simple calculation of assuming you lose x% one day and gain x% the next day. This math is not specific enough. You need to simulate with real historical data. Then you will see.

NobodyImportant13

> On the March 18, 2020, S&P500 dropped as low as 6.4% from Open. UPRO on the other hand dropped 11.5% from Open. Lol how are you calculating these numbers SPY 18Mar2020 Open 236.25. Low 228.02. 3.5% drop UPRO 18Mar2020 Open 11.13 Low 9.85 11.5% drop. 11.5%/3.5% = 3.28x It's not going to be exact when the market is really moving because it's a complicated process involving warrants/derivatives, but for the sake for retail conversion considering it "as is" on a daily basis is basically what you should do.

patriot2024

It is not basic math. The market operation is not basic math. The circuit breakers are there for a reason. The fund managers who rebalance the leverage assets do so for a reason. The price of a stock/etf cannot be zero. Let me give you an example. On the March 18, 2020, S&P500 dropped as low as 6.4% from Open. UPRO on the other hand dropped 11.5% from Open. I don't know the specifics, but I believe the managers have mechanisms to deal with such events. Although a 3x (or 5x) leverage is the goal, it is not a warranty. Therefore, you can't simply do basic math: 20%\*5 = 100%. Perhaps, you should investigate this more.

NobodyImportant13

You are all over this thread talking non-sense and misconstruing things. UPRO is 3x. The person you responded to was talking about 5x. YES, a 20% drop in 1 day would liquidate a 5x ETF. 20% x5 = 100%. It's basic math.

MotoTrojan

These volatility decay posts also never seem to mention that the issue isn't just the daily rebalancing, it is the amount of leverage. A 3x daily resetting S&P500 fund would be fine in a portfolio context with regular rebalancing. Some examples showing 33% simulated UPRO (100% equity exposure) plus 67% in various other assets and rebalanced quarterly here: [https://twitter.com/HML\_Compounder/status/1620902766972649472](https://twitter.com/HML_Compounder/status/1620902766972649472) In all cases it outperforms the same exposure using a standard margin loan that is 2% above risk-free-rate, very impressive and you can easily hold in a leverage-constrained account (IRA etc...).

moldymoosegoose

This is a myth. It COULD kill them over a long term but that doesn't mean it will. People wrote articles on volatility decay when LETFs started getting popular and everyone ran with it thinking it's guaranteed or something. The guy you're replying to is actually far more correct than you are. If you put a small amount into UPRO at its inception, which is half of an investing career, you would have retirement level money right now. If you DCAed into it over that time, you'd be rich. I'm not suggesting that this is not extremely risky or it couldn't wipe you out over time but just claiming "volatility decay" **will** kill leveraged funds over time is just absolutely, 100% false.

patriot2024

SP500 dropped 30% in 2020, and 24% in 2021, UPRO dropped 73% and 61%, at the same times. It did not liquidate. You bought 10 shares of UPRO in 2020, you still have the same number of shares (taking into account splits) right now. It's hard for shares to liquidate.

patriot2024

I think of this in simpler terms. When you buy TQQQ or UPRO, you buy the number of shares. After 10 years, you still have the same number of shares (after taking into account splitting and so on). If you track share prices of TQQQ vs QQQ, TQQQ grows faster. Same for VOO vs UPRO. Now, you pay a higher fee. But there are two reasons that support investing long term in TQQQ instead of QQQ, or UPRO instead of VOO. First, QQQ/VOO is the underlying force. The correlation is close to 1. And two, QQQ grows faster. Therefore, if you believe in the underlying force, you should leverage it. Higher risk? Yes. High fee? Yes. But if you are right on the underlying force, in the long term, the gains outweigh the the risks and fees.

weasler7

I ran a portfoliovisualizer backtest with a triple leveraged portfolio (UPRO, TQQQ, and TMF or BTAL) and decided to implement it in my HSA since 2019. It performs very well but only in low volatility regimes- which is essentially post GFC to pre-COVID19. It's not a set it and forget it strategy. I was hedged with BTAL (an anti-correlationfund) in 2022 when my portfolio took a bath and BTAL helped a lot. Kind of fun to play around with but in the end just demonstrates underperformance compared to SPY/QQQ buy and hold due to volatility. In a low volatility environment it may be good but who can say that with certainty.

Donho000

A 20% single date drop in the S&P would be End of Days!! Forget the market. Better have guns and ammo stocked deep. If that ever happened UPRO and XXXX if you have faith in the S&P

Substantial-Main-919

UPRO and BITX. Just HOLD!

Gloomy-Pineapple1729

LETFs are an easy way to get leverage **as long** as you rebalance periodically in order to maintain your desired leverage ratio. Either quarterly or yearly.  Otherwise you can hold LETFs long term.  Here’s ULPIX held with long term treasuries outperforming the S&P 500 during the lost decade. Despite being leveraged.  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5RjvnNqG9VgdW4lJvXjmoB ULPIX’s ER is 1.52%. So if you replaced that with SSO (which didn’t exist at the time) the results would’ve been better.  20% UPRO + 80% SPY rebalanced yearly performs similarly to being 140% in SPY.  https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=HuviZ69k3Ie3yQen9X6K3 There are better ways to achieve  leverage such as using box-spreads or futures.  But overall if you’re young, building a portfolio of bonds+stocks and applying modest leverage is more sensible IMHO than being 100% in stocks. 

Gloomy-Pineapple1729

Also leverage beats being non-leveraged over the course of a lifetime. I recommend OP go 50k to 100k in debt in order to lever up. ETFs like SSO and UPRO does this for you.

wahwahweewah12321

Mine is 70% VOO and 20% QQQM and 10% UPRO, today didn’t really hurt because I’m up 58% instead of 60%. If you are young you shouldn’t even need to think about bonds for a few decades at the least. Focus on riskier positions and manage your tolerance for turbulence, it will make you a hell of a lot more money than balancing your portfolio like you’re 60.

MrAndrewJackson

try this: 55% UPRO 45% TMF

ripple4me

UPRO or TQQQ. Putting .3% of my IRA on red days till 100%

Vivid-Kitchen1917

USD or UPRO probably, though FNGU and XXXX have some merit to them.

nooeh

A good balance between risk and reward might be a leveraged spx etf, such as SSO for 2x leverage or UPRO for 3x leverage. However on such a short time frame you could very well lose money. You could buy out of the money calls on spx mini futures possibly. That would also give you some leverage.

zxc123zxc123

Surely you guys know the Fed has already admitted inflation wasn't as transitory as expected (and it turns out some of that inflation is transitory). Also lower inflation =/= lower prices. And that even this print is a 0.1% miss but the markets were just looking for a reason to sell right? Anyways, feel free to hate on the Fed rather than winning the game. For all these folks who *"knew inflation wasn't transitory"* then you guys did load up on debt (like half a million at least), bought into stocks/gold/land/assets/bitcoin/monkey.jpgs, shorted the TLT/UTEN, quit your job for the wage hike, leveraged up on 3X ETFs like UPRO/TNA/UDOW/TQQQ or on LEAP options, and told your dad "FUCK YEAH I'M WINNING DAD. IF I WIN ANYMORE YOU GONNA BE CALLING ME DADDY!" when he asked how you were doing. TL;DR Don't hate the player ~~hate~~ win the game

zxc123zxc123

Sensible take for the investor, but for the WSB degen with YOLO SPY FDs or running those 0-2DTEs? Wiped out if we don't get a bounce again. Truly maximum regard status YOLOing into short term call options literally 2% away from ATHs during one of the longest and hardest bull rallies we've ever seen. But regards gonna regard. I'm just as regarded selling out of UPRO in Jan and sitting on 10% cash (SGOV/BIL while selling cash covered puts) watching this year's rally. To each their own crayons I guess.

kinglallak

I am the millionaire next door and I will be retired well before 50. I couldn’t tell you the last time I stressed over a medical/grocery/utility/vacation bill. I work 2500-3000 hours per year in a dangerous industry(in a union) and my expenses are 1/3rd of what I make after taxes and my savings are 2/3rds of what I make after taxes. My car is over 10 years old but in great shape as I don’t drive it hard. I live in a LCOL area of the country so my mortgage is quite low. We cook most of our own meals(eat out maybe 1-2 times per month). Couldn’t tell you the last major concert, professional sporting event, or movie I saw in theaters. MOST IMPORTANTLY - I found an SO with a similar financial mindset. We play a lot of board games, garden, and play in adult recreational sports leagues for fun. We also have a couple of kids and take a few vacations a year so we aren’t misers. We just focused in on what was important to us and worked on only spending money on that and avoiding unnecessary expenses that don’t provide value to us. I buy basic index funds(think funds like S&P index fund). I know I can’t beat the super computers at the day trading or in the options market and I avoid leveraged accounts like TQQQ or UPRO. I don’t want to stress about which company wins the rat race so I am comfortable buying a piece of all of them and slowly winning. My emergency fund is split between multiple brokerages in brokerage accounts in case one of them has issues to provide both flexibility. I put every last dollar that I can put to work for me so that I reach a point where I never have to work again.

Deep90

There's a pretty big difference though. Look at the all time high for TQQQ, QLD, and QQQ. TQQQ is in the red. QLD is only slightly in the red. QQQ is in the green. Also between UPRO and TQQQ, UPRO is almost at ATH again. Point I'm trying to make is that leverage matters a lot in terms of risk. As does QQQ vs SPY.

Raidriar06

It was just an example. There’s plenty of 2x and 3x and even a 4x (appropriately named XXXX). TQQQ is just one of the most common. And it has 10x the volume of UPRO, not that it matters if you’re only buying 100 shares.

Gloomy-Pineapple1729

That's why you don't hold the LETF by itself. Rebalancing dampens the effects of volatility decay. Even better if you hold an uncorrelated asset with lower volatility. ​ Here's the oldest 2x LETF (ULPIX) outperforming S&P 500 during the lost decade with long term treasuries. ​ [https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4IHFFlV9OHy3D3EoNXUnlz](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4IHFFlV9OHy3D3EoNXUnlz) ​ Btw thats even with ULPIX having an ER of (1.57% / 2 = 0.765). UPRO has an ER of (0.95 / 3 = 0.31) and SSO has an ER of (0.91 / 2 = 0.45)

Gloomy-Pineapple1729

That's why you don't hold the LETF by itself. Rebalancing dampens the effects of volatility decay. Even better if you hold an uncorrelated asset with lower volatility. ​ Here's the oldest 2x LETF (ULPIX) outperforming S&P 500 during the lost decade with long term treasuries. ​ [https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=15mwLIWOa6R04zBfCG35RG](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=15mwLIWOa6R04zBfCG35RG) ​ Btw thats even with ULPIX having an ER of (1.57% / 2 = 0.765). UPRO has an ER of (0.95 / 3 = 0.31) and SSO has an ER of (0.91 / 2 = 0.45)

kinglallak

Not necessarily. UPRO wouldn’t have recovered from the housing crises in 2007/8 until 2014 but SPY recovered in 2013 TQQQ would have lost 99.94% of its value during the dot com bubble. If you had $100,000,000 in TQQQ you would have dropped all the way down to $60,000. Leveraged ETFs carry enormous risks. A decade like the 2010s where we have steady growth is not guaranteed.

hayasecond

It’s not a no brainer because when SP 500 crash leveraged ones crashes harder and may never recover to its high even when the index reaches the new high That said, if you can buy $UPRO etc sure

JZcgQR2N

Look at SPXL, UPRO, or SSO.

James___G

If you want to take calculated risks I'd recommend looking into DCA'ing \~10% of your monthly investment into a 3x leveraged ETF like UPRO or TQQQ - and rebalancing every few years. That's much more likely to accelerate your returns and a better balance or risk vs reward compared with investing in individual stocks.

PapaCharlie9

Not really. Some people use SPXL or UPRO (3x leveraged funds) since their share prices are lower, but the liquidity isn't nearly as good and you wouldn't want to hold their shares. You may have to switch to using vertical spreads to reduce costs. That will cap your upside, but better than using a substitute with worse liquidity or price action.

imlimonsson

Buy a 3X leveraged ETF like UPRO, TQQQ, SOXL.

IllustriousAI

Even better, buy UPRO. same as spy but x3 the risk/reward.

Highway_Roamer

UPRO

Doogy44

I agree with most … I think HOOD and VOO are good as far as individual holdings you have … Id ditch the rest - In Crypto, BTC is the most well known and by far the most used - Id stick to that, get out of rest. If looking to be aggressive and a little more safe in doing so, rather than buying meme stocks - look for some leveraged ETFs in sectors you have faith in … SOXL and USD for US semiconductor industry … TQQQ for top 100 Nasdaq companies … FNGU and BULZ for Mag 7 … UPRO, SPLX, & XXXX for S&P 500 … TECL for large cap US tech companies. All these are at least 3x leveraged, but are in areas that are unlikely to tank enough to kill the leveraged ETF (not impossible, it can happen, but each is diverse enough to survive bad weeks and come back quickly). They are fairly good for leveraged ETFs - based on strong underlying companies - sectors. They will go up and down fast - so just realize that and read up on leveraged ETFs because they do have significant risk - but they are safer than betting on memes if looking to be aggressive.

Headless0305

Meanwhile me and my UPRO/TQQQ combo…

natestom

>I lmao, it was a rhetorical question captain obvious and investor genius. i said why invest in the sp500 when u can invest in sp500 3x leverage. NVDL would return astronomically higher than the sp500 but that's not even what i was saying. not sure if you can understand anything im saying judging by your responses. i think you sit on reddit too much and need to experience more for yourself. UPRO is 3x SP500, SP500 needs to fall 33% for it to lose its value. make sense? probably not to you and you need to come back with some claim that has nothing to do with my comment. the fact that you think investing in to nvidia is a terrible idea just shows you have no idea what your talking about. i cant help you. once again you should research more and look for help through other resources. i can only do so much to explain for you and you will always learn the best on your own.

WINTERGRIFT

Stop buying individual stocks and just buy SPY. And don’t leverage into UPRO either. You don’t know what the hell you’re doing. Prolly haven’t even heard of VIX. Just buy and hold Spy until you get more experience.

Substantial-Main-919

all in UPRO.

the_leviathan711

> well then look at the 5 year chart for QLD and NTSX. Right, that's just performance chasing. My point is less about leverage and more about QQQ because it's a pretty random basket of stocks. It's cool that it's doing so great at the moment, but I see no reason to place any bets on it moving forward. I'd much rather be in UPRO.

the_leviathan711

> Ok, that’s interesting, double the profit, double the risk? Slightly less than double the profit for slightly more than double the risk. But yes, more or less. > With the interest rates going up will it not perform as well? We have no idea which direction interest rates are going to go, nor do we have any idea what the market will do. Unless you're saying you have a crystal ball? > Any reason not to move some percentage of my current SPY allocation to SSO? I mean - it's riskier! If you really want to go nuts with this, you can also do UPRO which is 3x SPY. You can see that [in a bull market](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=69WdGOS3H1N8u8uXSwfl6M), the leveraged returns are pretty insane. And in a [financial crash](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=5HwMYPatFzbdNtcVMDbxRG), you might lose everything.

proverbialbunny

If you're looking to buy and hold S&P 500 for a long period of time with leverage buying UPRO (3x SPY) is better than buying LEAPS on SPY. It has lower fees, less risk, and in most situations makes more too. Oh and lower taxes.

RarelySayNever

I'd say no. You could try wheeling TQQQ or UPRO if you want to test it out with a smaller amount. I've kind of been doing that with TQQQ for about a year now, but I've only been selling puts because I've never been assigned so far.

Nemarus_Investor

>UPRO If the underlying index flash crashes 33%, you lose everything with 3x leverage with no opportunity to recover. Sure, that isn't a likely event, but I wouldn't be able to sleep knowing all my money could disappear because the algos decided today would be a wild trading day.

natestom

forget these people saying to put it in SP500 index. they are too dumb to realize that there's leveraged SP500 etfs that will return 3x more. why invest in the sp500 long term when you can get 3x the return? UPRO, FNGU, and NVDL. good leveraged products. do your research and don't try to time the market, invest in the long term, don't get scared and sell when the market goes down but buy the dips

Beta_Nerdy

Since 2010: $1000 invested in UPRO is now worth $32,272 (Dropped 62% at low) $1000 invested in SPY is now worth $5,935 (Dropped 32% at low) UPRO is great for mad money you are not afraid to lose

iamiamwhoami

It's 60/40 UPRO/HFEA.

CollarTrue8919

Diversification is best! Hold some SPY, some VOO, IVV, SPLG, SSO and definitely UPRO. Not financial advice!

mr_malifica

Another wonderfully ignorant post that shows you shouldn't trust financial advice Reddit. UPRO Split |Jan. 13, 2022|2:1| |:-|:-|

nooeh

To expand on that and correct it a bit, when you have alternating up and down days the fund performs worse than expected. However, the converse of that is that if there are consecutive up days OR even consecutive down days the fund performs better than expected. Two days of down 10%: spy $100->$81 (total down 19%). UPRO $100->$49 (total down 51%, rather than 19x3=57%). Two days of up 10%: spy $100->$121 (total up 21%). UPRO $100->$169 (total up $69% rather than 21x3=63%)

the_leviathan711

> I look at the returns over the past few years The last 15 years have been fabulous for the SP500. So it makes sense that it's been even more fabulous for a 3x leveraged SP500. There's no guarantee the next 15 years will be good. And a few bad years with UPRO can wipe you out.

adannel

There is a fairly popular strategy called hedgefundies excellent adventure that uses a mix of UPRO and a leveraged bond fund. It actually backtests surprisingly well, but I would still be skeptical of it.

RealHornblower

SPY Dec 31/2021: $475 SPY March 22/2024: $521 UPRO Dec 31/2021: $76 UPRO March 22/2024: $70 Unleveraged SPY up almost 10%, plus some dividends. UPRO down almost 8%, an underperformance of almost 20%. Borrowing costs and volatility decay hurt when looking at time periods that are "peak to peak." I own UPRO but that's the downside.

greytoc

>why UPRO isn’t more popular? Aside from some of the other comments. For people that have leveraged portfolios, the cost of using ETF leverage may be less efficient. So using futures or other leverage techniques may be preferrable.

1hotjava

Let’s say you were unfortunate enough to put $10k into UPRO in Nov 2022. You’d still have not gotten back to where SPY is https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2TdRCAzdTRnOLrHkchjydO 3x gains also comes with 3x loss

cfeltus23

What makes SSO a good long term hold compared to UPRO?

SnS2500

> Can someone explain why UPRO isn’t more popular? Most people hate high volatility. Many people are very risk averse. > Would this be something to trade rather than hold? Leveraged funds are designed for trading, not holding, but you can do both, but you have to pay attention to it. Not selling in 2022 or at the start of the covid dip would have gutted a lot of value; not buying during the covid recovery would suggest a person stay away fro leverage. Tons of shares are traded, even held for just seconds, during Powell speeches when the market bounces around violently.

Real_Concraft

if you invest in UPRO you can beat the market every year guaranteed 😮

Due-Addition7245

Protective put? Sure. But that works better for some more volatile ones. I don’t think VOO is one of them. Maybe UPRO?

BallEnvironmental670

VT should provide more stability than SCV and DCA would also help although by no means is magical. I actually used to have a UPRO TMF (HFEA) portfolio but after 2022 I decided it was too volatile.

MotoTrojan

Did you read the entire thread? It is a chain of many tweets. The point of the thread was to show a number of different combinations of 33% UPRO and 67% other assets, with quarterly rebalancing. So I would say it is HIGHLY applicable to your setup. I never showed it with 67% VT like your case but I did include an example with the 67% going into small-value which is somewhat applicable to your situation. [https://x.com/HML\_Compounder/status/1620902786471985152?s=20](https://x.com/HML_Compounder/status/1620902786471985152?s=20) As I said, I did not include DCA, but I have looked at it before and it is not a magic bullet to making this more efficient.

BallEnvironmental670

I'm only seeing a screenshot that shows 100% UPRO vs 100% SPY with the 10k initial investment. I don't see anything about rebalancing or DCA. Is the rest of it somewhere on your Twitter page? Also what literature have you found regarding the effects of leverage on the efficiency frontier? If any

MotoTrojan

You may find this thread useful. It has many examples of 33% UPRO going back decades, with various other options in the rest.  https://twitter.com/HML_Compounder/status/1620902766972649472

BallEnvironmental670

I used to tilt heavily towards small cap value, but after so much underperformance I decided to scrap that idea and just have VT. I currently run 67% VT and 33% UPRO rebalancing every quarter and it's rewarded me well.

TIL_IM_A_SQUIRREL

UPRO

weird0_0ptimist

Look out tomorrow for likely super low jobless claims again to confirm this economy is hella str0nk and SPX will steadily grind up 💪. Load up on UPRO, SPY calls, SPXL, etc. you know the drill.

less_unique_username

We’re in a bull market currently. Anything works in a bull market, even stupid ideas. You said you’re 24% up over the last three months, you know what else is 24% up? UPRO, the 3x S&P500 ETF. You asked what the risks are? At some point the market will unexpectedly become sideways or go down, at which point YOLOing it all on options will paint beautiful graphs that will make WSB _red_ with envy. Just find a decent job, invest in S&P500 regularly and Get Rich Slowly.

citiclosethrowaway

Could you expand on what you mean by #2? It sounds like a complex way of saying… using margin to buy total market funds and/or increase leverage in Sp500 using etfs like SSO or UPRO

kiwimancy

That is not accurate. IMO it seems like a defense mechanism for people to say that. Leverage obviously amplifies risk, and it is difficult to use practically in a way that matches MPT, and rebalanced CAGR may be lower than one might naively assume... but it does increase expected returns if used reasonably efficiently. Including stuff like SSO and UPRO.

AlgoTradingQuant

Of course there is…. The best/safest way is to use a broker who lets you use margin on a taxable brokerage account. There are also leveraged ETF’s like TQQQ and UPRO but those do have decay over time (Google It).

Kashmir79

Use of leverage in my portfolio. It took me a while to come around to the idea because leverage has historically exacerbated market crashes and caused all kinds of problems for investors. But rather than using risky margin loans or individual options, the new breed of ETFs that can give retail investors access to low cost leveraged treasury bonds via futures contracts in their portfolio, without sacrificing space for stocks, are very clever and advantageous. I am talking about funds like **NTSX, NTSI, NTSE, and RSSB** (not 3x daily leverage UPRO, TMF etc). Many investors can say that they are aggressive and hold 100% stocks and you can be like yeah I am 90-100% stocks too, but I am also 60-100% bonds. That’s a similar amount of risk/volatility, but with higher expected returns due to better downside protection. These strategies are apt to be less appealing to people these days because of the inverted yield curve and 2022 being the worst correlated decline of stocks and bonds in half century, but their long term expected performance is solid. Judiciously leveraged investing is a proven strategy with hundreds of years of data.

generouscookie1981

@wabuffo sounds like a smart dude. >All great investing records employed leverage. I'm starting to come around on this concept and beginning to utilize a bit of UPRO, not too much. Do you have any thoughts on leverage, do you ever use it? I have nailed everything perfectly last two years as well (which others here can attest to), actually ended up TOO conservative and would have made way more if I just had faith in my thesis to notch up the risk tolerance a bit with 3x funds.

generouscookie1981

@wabuffo sounds like a smart dude. >All great investing records employed leverage. I'm starting to come around on this concept and beginning to utilize a bit of UPRO, not too much. I have nailed everything perfectly last two years, actually ended up TOO conservative and would have made way more if I just had faith in my thesis to notch up the risk tolerance a teeny bit with 3x funds.

generouscookie1981

If inflation cools 100%. If it's sticky people will stupidly spin higher for longer as an excuse to exercise restraint. However they cannot stop the trillions in inflows from a healthy economy plus higher profits, sales growth from pushing markets up. Hence my conservative target for 5400 from here. While I **do not recommend this for others** it is merely trivial amounts for fun I got UPRO. In place of adding to my usual VOO DCAs I've done token amount of UPRO. Just a couple thousand ($s not shares) for now. More if it dips.

generouscookie1981

**TL;DR - TINA is still alive and well. Bonds are total trash, especially with hot PPI print. Long-dated SPY calls and TQQQ / UPRO with proper risk management.** Let's look at bonds. **1.19** spread to Treasuries. Sucks ass. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1ijMa *Average yield of 5.5% for bonds and core CPI at 3.8%... This is a joke yes?* That's almost no real return after tax and that assumes ZERO defaults. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1ijMQ Retirees use bonds to stay approximately level with inflation hoping bonds do not default. Okay, they had their chance to accumulate wealth and workers need to get a fair shake. Saving for home. Okay. But young people. This is really fucking stupid.

Squezeplay

Uh, yes, they did: >Retirement accounts run by employers cannot offer risky investments. Which I pointed out is false. Many people can buy whatever securities they want in their 401k. I have personally traded GBTC, UPRO and SPXU in my 401k. W/e reason OP's company doesn't offer this has nothing to due with any type of supposed risk the company has for losses participants have from their own investing decisions.

Mean-Morning9656

I’m getting burned whenever I’m touching Options. I have 6 Calls on TQQQ and UPRO expiring March 28 and I’m 40% down. https://preview.redd.it/hypd8por3eoc1.jpeg?width=1283&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a8789833681b9c1586331446766f56a95189f95d

generouscookie1981

FWIW everything thus far has happened exactly like I predicted from around middle to late 2022. Maybe it's overconfidence but my price target for SPX has been revised up to 5400 and I bought some UPRO where otherwise I would have VOO.

popcornandfish

UPRO

generouscookie1981

VTI and chill is totally fine! I have a personal bias for VOO. But I think a small portion in UPRO or TQQQ is totally fine too like 10%.

chopsui101

40, 40, 10, 10...VOO, QQQ, UPRO, TQQQ. If you want to beat the market you gotta take risks.

zerof3565

This is what I usually calculate 3x ETF reset. Say let's set SPY index at 350 as an example: 1. Day 1 drops 5%: 350 - (350\*.05) = 332.50 2. Day 2 rises 10%: 332.5+(332.5×.1) = 365.75 3. Day 3 drops 8%: 365.75−(365.75×.08) = 336.49 This makes it a cumulative returns of **3.86% decline after 3 days**. Let's look at 3x leverage like UPRO in this case since we're tracking SPY: 1. It reset the day prior so each day it will track the SPY at exactly 3x, so let's see this calculation of Day 1 drops 15%: 350−(350×.15) = 297.50 2. Same thing reset and rise 30%: 297.5 + (297.5×.30) = 386.75 3. Same thing reset and decline 24%: 386.75−(386.75×.24) = 293.93 This makes it a cumulative returns of **16.02% decline after 3 days**. This is how I understood the reset and the compounding effect of the reset, show me how it benefits UPRO in this example on the way down. I'd like to learn more.

cryptocam72

Why not just invest in a leveraged ETF? You seem to like risk, so you could do 2x NVDA leverage with NVDL, but I'd suggest **Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares** TECL. Or just go a little more safe but still leveraged with UPRO or TQQQ

MotoTrojan

Here is a very relevant thread I put together. They can be useful in a portfolio context, but going all in is not prudent.  If UPRO existed back in 1955 it would’ve just recently caught up to the unlevered S&P500 (see tweet).  https://x.com/HML_Compounder/status/1620902766972649472?s=20

S7EFEN

because leveraged ETFs exist to mirror the movement on a **daily** basis they can underperform long term. and likely will. volatility will hurt you a lot. you can look at historical performance of say UPRO or leveraged etfs on pretty much anything other than tech/nasdaq to see this. and the only reason TQQQ looks so good is because tech has had an absolutely historical run post 2008. ​ there are some strategies related to leverage- specifically ​ [https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=274390](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=274390) ​ [https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=272007](https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=272007) ​ you may find interesting.

SirRegardTheWhite

Stonks only go up. I've got UPRO calls at $64 for the end of this month, so I can only wish you the worst.

waldenducks

UPRO: Every time I get a dividend I giggle.

waldenducks

Congratulations to anyone who bought UPRO in Nov/Dec '21. You're almost green! 

zeradragon

All in UPRO or TQQQ. You are unlikely to be able to pick out a winning portfolio that will out perform the market, so easiest way to match market performance is to buy the index funds. Given that, buying an index fund will put you somewhere in the middle of the pack, so buy the 3x leveraged funds to potentially place you further ahead of the pack. The leveraged ETFs aren't meant to be held long term, but 3 months is fine. All you need to decide now is whether you think market will be better or worse 3 months out and you should be firmly at the top if you are correct.

SirRegardTheWhite

Bears are gay. I'm all in UPRO calls because they were on sale.

gnocchicotti

I was just thinking that UPRO might be a good move the next time the market retreats from ATH. Of course WSB starts talking about UPRO when the market is at the peak.

techy098

Buying calls for long term investment is a terrible idea. It is a form of aggressive speculation and not a long term investment plan. Imagine you bought strike 480 calls of Jan 2023 back in 2021, you would lose all your money. You are better off with triple leveraged stuff like UPRO or TQQQ if you want to do leveraged play. Again not a good idea since there is a usually 10-15% loss if held long term due to cost of managing leveraged things lice options and futures.

codex04

If you want aggressive $SMH $MSTR $UPRO

Explosive_Banana6969

70% whole market ETFs, 20% UPRO, 10% cash, boomer tier strategy. Not shorting anything either because I’m too stupid or too smart, but building cash to buy more UPRO if Bank issues spread amongst other things

Junior_Tip4375

For the sake of simplicity,TQQQ,UPRO/SPXL,UDOW,TNA,SOXL-monitor the technicals and keep 30 to 50% cash on the side, buy gradually on dips,trimming on rallies-and when they're oversold enough I confidently deploy 100% of capital 

dlinhat70

If you do it, make sure it has reasonable OI. I had 10 UPRO puts for 1/2025. Someone bought 2 and set the ask at 10 x, so I showed a 1000% loss every day. The total OI was 12, my 10 and their 2.

Dry-Drink

As per my [guide](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mtmfkk/drydrink_portfolio_guide_to_leveraged_smartbeta/): \- This sounds like the famous Hedgefundie UPRO/TMF portfolio no? I personally think that portfolio has multiple problems (the LETFs themselves, the risk parity weights do not lead to max sharpe, even if it were max sharpe, I'm aiming for max compound growth not max Sharpe, and the leverage of 3x is just about past the Kelly Criterion). [Here's](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mk71rt/wsb_leveraged_smartbeta_still_going_bonkers_up/gtwe5p4/?context=3) a chain of comments where I dig into the math I used to come to these personal conclusions.

Dry-Drink

Because this makes way more money? As per my FAQs in my guide: \- What about using Leveraged ETFs (ex: SPUU)? Those have high management fees, sometimes have too much leverage (ex: UPRO), will not let you diversify globally as effectively, there are no smart-beta options and they rebalance daily (instead of using the 1.8-2.2 leverage bands I recommend). IMO, it's better to rebalance a little less frequently than daily (this is what using bands accomplishes).

bwinereddit

UPRO, TQQQ, or FNGU. Magnify the bounce-back