VT

Affectionate-Panic-1

VTI/VT is indexed based off of free float, not market cap. So if say SpaceX only IPO's with a free float of 5% and a market cap of 1 trillion, it would only have a 50 billion valuation as far as VTI is concerned. How free float is calculated is removing stuff like restricted shares or shares held by founders. So not zero exposure but not as bad as full market cap indexes.

Excellent_Chest_6616

Why are people so worried of it becoming .1 percent of VT or any other major etf?

MSFusionHV

The question is a waste of time. It doesn't matter because nobody knows what is going to happen in the future. The smartest thing people can do is stay invested and be highly diversified so you aren't relying on a concentrated bet (even all in only US large caps is a bet..) to provide returns. If one is in a low cost highly diversified global find such as VT and perhaps a cash buffer if desired they should have little to worry about.

MSFusionHV

This is all incredibly simple. There is a mountain of evidence showing that stock picking is likely to underperform long term over a simple low cost highly diversified global fund like VT. If that simple fund sounds boring.. that is the point. Disciplined long term investing isn't about chasing hot stocks and funds (that is unlikely to persist) and excitement. Ben Felix on YouTube, the Rational Reminder podcast, and Bogleheads community/wiki are all excellent resources for truly wise investing for the long term. Also books from Bogle, Bernstein, Malkiel, etc. People are overconfident in their abilities and read false stories from other stock pickers who claim they have this great track record when it likely isn't true because they're going to selectively discard their losers and only tell you about their winners. If they actually compared their full performance they would see especially long term it is a waste of time and a significant opportunity cost. The evidence is clear. Stay highly diversified and global. Past winners don't continue on and on. Every strategy will eventually have rough times. Don't performance chase. Don't cave into fear of missing out. Slow and steady wins the race. Don't check your account more than a few times a year. Don't concern yourself with the headlines meant to scare you. But you can lead a horse to water and they won't drink. Some people will sabotage their financial future because of desperation and frankly.. stupidity. What's the saying.. oh.. a fool and their money. To each their own.

Impossible-Will-25

Yes, VT uses the exact same float-adjusted method as VTI, meaning your fund only buys based on the tiny fraction of shares actually available to the public rather than SpaceX's multi trillion dollar headline valuation, capping its actual weight in your portfolio at a microscopic fraction of a percent.

Emotional-Breath-838

VT sucks and is easily beaten. Over 5 years: VT 70% VOO 93% QQQ 127% SPMO 187% Why would you want to hold all the companies including the worst trash?

MrFrog65

You’re hardly beating inflation with VT. Also makes you invest in shit stocks like Tesla

MSFusionHV

Does it matter? This fear of missing out will likely result in you underperforming VT long term. If you are excited by your investments, something has gone wrong.

jkwah

VTI tracks the CRSP US Total Stock Market Index. VT tracks the FTSE Global All Cap Index. Both CRSP and FTSE have already changed their rules. Vanguard doesn't necessarily have to have the same basket of equities but it's likely Vanguard follows to some degree to maintain the respective tracking errors.

MSFusionHV

Stock picking is a loser's game. You're going to get burned. VT will easily outperform your strategy over the long run. You'd be better off increasing your human capital.

brock2063

VTI or VT. Not sure if there's been any announcements from Vanguard but if it does get added it'll be one of thousands of companies at a low weighting regardless.

minerslechuga

Boglehead nerds will point to a 5% correction and say "see, i told you so" and look at their VT smugly while my portfolio is still up 70%.

IBangTokyoWife

Good job on VT

Axe_Raider

VTI is whole (US) stock market, and VT is total world stock market. that will make SpaceX a smaller piece. but these "every single stock" funds are much less picky. they let in new entrants after 5 days, and have operated that way for years. if you switch now you will end up getting SpaceX sooner. VTV is a value based fund. if SpaceX is classified as "Growth" it will not be there. it is in either VTV or VUG. i expect them to follow the same rules as VOO since they are VOO split in two pieces, but i have not confirmed this. you may want to go to actively managed funds if you are trying to outsmart the market. or use options to offset the SpaceX and Tesla stock. buy a put and your downside is limited but it will pay off big if the stock drops.

youngishgeezer

No, but your investments cause the fund to buy stock in companies. Those shares come from somewhere and the seller gets your money in exchange for the share. So when the SpaceX owners sell their shares they are directly getting your money. Putting SpaceX into an index will require a lot of retirement funds to purchase shares. My issue is those shares will be overpriced based on on earnings. I have the same concerns about Tesla being in VT and VTI. But that’s what you get when you buy the index.

B00marangTrotter

I do not know if moving my VOO into VT will shield me more from SpaceX, but that's currently my plan. I welcome any advice on avoiding musk shit.

Ahamadrayasbaboon

Sell my kidney and buy VT calls, got it!

zxc123zxc123

Sitting on cash is literally getting cucked by the Fed and the government. The guy enjoying the fight while smoking weed is VOO/QQQ/IWM/VT & MAG8.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

What % of VOO/SPY/VT/VTI/etc do you think SpaceX will be? Hint: an insignificant %

ESSolberg

If I could go back and give my 17 year old self advice it would be the following: Put the money into a low cost ETFs. Vanguard have some good options ($VOO, $VTI, $VGT, $VT), then add to it as you can. Will it make you a millionaire in 5-10 years? Nope. But it’s a much less stressful introduction to the stock market than jumping into individual stocks. It will help you understand how news, policy and earnings impact individual stocks that make up these funds. Once you’ve got the fundamentals in place you’ll have a much easier time investing into individual stocks if that something that still interests you down the line. At 17 you have plenty of time. Best of luck!

nanobot_1000

My portfolio was nearly all NVDA the past decade, since last fall I have been diversifying it into VT/VOO and a little SPMO/SMH. I put a small amount in MU and DRAM for FOMO but it triggered -15% stop loss and sold, then continued taking off 🤷‍♂️ I also have a HYSA at 4.40% APY with 3 years of expenses in it but am otherwise suspicious of the openly acknowledged market manipulation occuring by our current administration, the oil situation, tech CEOs cutting AI spend from "tokenmaxxing", public outrage against datacenters, ect. What's clear is those in power will do anything to prop up the market economy under the auspices of national security, but I already had a good run and left the corporate world and have less appetite for risk now.

trenusingtreebeard

If you unsure about current valuations the best thing you can do is just buy VT. I do think it’s a good idea to have a cash allocation in Sgov or something similar though.

CasualCommunicator

Only time you can do it cost effectively as a retail investor without just being lucky pretty much. Just buy VT and SPCE.

MSFusionHV

Unfortunately history shows that the largest companies have several disappointing lengthy poor return periods. And stock picking is highly unlikely to be better than VOO and especially VT after decades. You are overconfident in your abilities and are falling into common biases that will erode returns over time. Stock picking is a loser's game. Maybe one day you'll learn that. Good luck.

jafferd813

I thought this was $25M. Just buy VT my dude

n3uropath

If you stop while you’re ahead and shift that into VT, at your age you’ll easily set yourself up for FIRE. But what fun would that be?

Other-Importance-214

Well this is precisely why I hold VT. I don't have to gamble and try to pick any winners...I end up owning all the winners.

MarlonMcCree20

Yeah and I do VOO vs VT, more upside to me while still being safe. Small amount in VXUS as well just for international exposure. I don't expect it to beat US markets long term, but this current regime showed me the market can drastically shift with a single tweet lol.

Hoosier2016

The average tech stock dropped 75-80% in the dot com crash. Many speculative stocks dropped to near-zero. I think it’s reasonable to say a semiconductor crash of similar proportions would bring DRAM/SMH/SOXX down 90%+ compared to 50% in an absolute worst-case for VT.

Hoosier2016

4% is pretty bad. VT is up over 11% YTD. Probably best if you stick to index funds instead of trying to pick stocks.

Training-Rip6463

exactly. Just save aggressively and DCA into VT and chill. You'll be a billionaire in no time when you're 98 lol

After_Working_6499

Buy VT

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

Or just VT, to simplify even further.

Machine8851

VT performs worse than an sp500 index fund such as IVV and VOO

mtnrnnr802

I’m in VT. It was 90° three days ago lol

Emotional-Power-7242

Semiconductors are around 10% of VT. So if every semiconductor company went to 0, a semiconductor fund would be down 100% and VT would be down 10%.

max_strength_placebo

~12% of VT is semiconductors, so if the industry crashes it could be a >Since VT is so much diversified it has pretty mediocre gains compared to say DRAM or SOXX. DRAM is about 90 seconds old, has most of the holdings in 3 socks, and is being pumped up by Korean retail investors using record levels of margin. I'm sorry but it's just ridiculous to compare DRAM to VT, they have completely different strategies and holdings. In 2022, SOXX dropped 35% while VT dropped roughy half as much at 18%. So hot trendy investments can be a lot more risky and volatile than a more diversified or boring option.

GMVexst

There's no reason to underperform the market when you can buy the market. VT or VTI and chill

IronyElSupremo

VT will get hit as the mega-caps still move that ETF. Not only the U.S., Taiwan (mostly TSCM) … but now Samsung, Sk Hynix from South Korea as new entrants to the mega biggie leagues ($1trln mkt caps).

sum_dude44

That's what I did w/ MU profit. Put some in DRAM to hedge as well. I basically use VOO & VT as savings accounts

avilacjf

Given how thin your investment strategy is I would highly recommend trimming and reallocating to QQQ, VOO, or VT based on how bullish you are on big tech/USA. The more you put into ETFs the less you'll worry about individual picks getting too bloated or huge drawdowns. You must first understand that chasing FOMO is the worst investment strategy because you'll trade mainly on emotion. Otherwise you'll just be ping-ponging back and forth, getting frustrated watching stocks skyrocket past your steady ship. If you want to time the market my best advice is to DCA but have a multiple for when the Fear and Greed index is in the red. Say you want to put in 1K every month, you do 1.5k when the F&G is in the red and 500 when it's in the green. Alternatively you can swap into a leveraged ETF like TQQQ (3x QQQ) when the index is on extreme fear and trade back into the regular QQQ once it's back in the green. These are some general ideas I use.

Unarmored2268

My point and concern is VT gets hit despite its low exposure to chips, as investors may start withdrawing their money from wide stock market, not just semiconductors. If that happened, that would mean divesification doesn't really pay off. Don't know, just speculating.

MSFusionHV

Your time would likely be much better spent on many other things, while just sticking with VT and letting it ride. If one insisted on doing this.. there are better ways, like some funds that AQR offers. Good luck

MountainOpposite3199

It is right that during dot-com VT would've gotten wrecked, but the point about the 27% tech exposure is key - semis are maybe 5-8% of that. The real risk isn't semis specifically, it's that VT's at ATH with forward P/E ~18x and only 2% upside to fair value per trademates. A 10% broad correction wipes out any near-term gains. Staggered entry makes sense here, not all-in.

cannythecat

VT would have still fallen 50 percent during the dot com crash, in a broad market sell off everything is going down together

WJKramer

What people arn't considering is how far reaching into other sectors of the market a tech correction will reach. Yes VT will be affected, obviously not as much as funds with higher concentration levels but it still will be felt.

MSFusionHV

Without a doubt it'll be impacted somewhat.. but by being much less concentrated in those names, it won't be as destructive. The difference between the 2000s burst and now is that back then international was richly valued too. Today it's different and VT would definitely fare better (but still take a sizable hit). If one really felt strongly about avoiding a major tech downturn, small value is an option as well as alternatives like managed futures which zig when the markets zag (though beware they are very challenging to hold individually without portable alpha/return stacking). What these high flyers gambling into these tech and semiconductor stocks and funds don't want to realize (or care.. because their capital is so low anyways) is that the downswing can be just as fierce as the upswing. Good luck to them..

L-Quantum-Raccoon

VT won’t tank like semiconductors even if that sector has a big correction. It only has a small exposure to chips and AI stocks, so losses there get diluted across thousands of global companies in other sectors. U might still see a dip if tech drops hard, but it would be much milder compared to SOXX or similar ETFs. That’s basically the whole point of diversification: less upside, but also much smaller crashes.

jcsehak

There is a cure, it’s at r/bogleheads. I learned the hard way betting into GME. Us plebes can give our money to billionaires at the casino or we can ride their coattails by DCAing into VTI (or VOO or VT or whatever you prefer).

MSFusionHV

Why bother with all of that? Just buy VT and be done with it, as most people won't be able to beat it long term. Stop focusing on the headlines and what stock pickers say. None of that analysis is going to benefit you or anyone else.

MSFusionHV

Stock picking is a loser's game. Stick with VT.

NineSidedBox

VT is about 60% US and 40% international. My ratio at the moment is the other way around. I've been moving away from US funds in the past few years, so just doing VXUS + VOO.

CaptainSt0nks

I think global population decline is not just noise and would affect VT

MSFusionHV

Nobody knows what is going to happen. Serious long term investing ignores the noise and what ifs. Pick a highly diversified global strategy (like VT) according to your risk tolerance and let it ride for decades to come. Simple.. but not easy.. and that is how you earn the equity risk premium. Stay in your seat and ignore the headlines. If one was really concerned there could be different styles like alternative strategies that are zero or negatively correlated to the stock market (I believe in these), but they require an enormous amount of conviction that won't be found on here. Best of luck!

MSFusionHV

Anytime someone is talking an individual stock, they likely are performance chasing and have a fear of missing out. If you want to be wise, invest in VT and earn the global market average return which most people, even professionals, will fail to beat after decades..

MSFusionHV

This is one of the reasons why the momentum factor exists. Anyways.. this doesn't really matter as picking individual stocks is a proven loser's game. Vast majority would be better off in VT. If one wanted to systematically pursue higher expected returns, then factor funds are an evidence based way to do that.. but you need very strong belief as negative potential tracking variance allows for potential positive tracking variance over the long term (there is no strategy that can do well at all times).

IBangTokyoWife

That's a lot of work to just likely match VT. Why don't you just go VT?

nanobot_1000

I held NVDA the past decade, cashed out last fall and now am in boring old VT/VOO resisting blowing it, but even that makes me nervous now TBH.

MSFusionHV

How do you know you are "moderately successful"? Are you certain you aren't wildly overconfident in your abilities? Have you tracked your entire performance against VOO or VT? How long have you been doing it, as obviously a lengthy track record is more meaningful than a short term track record.. though technically even 10 years could be luck. Wise long term investors just sit in VT, which will end up outperforming around 90 percent of investors over decades. Good luck.

MSFusionHV

Is this a joke post? Investing for 2 years? You hold cash or a short term bond fund.. You do not know nearly enough about investing if you think a 2 year timeframe is appropriate here for equities. IF you had a 10 year plus horizon you invest wisely into VT or AOA. Not playing the loser's game by picking sectors or individual stocks. All the evidence shows your strategy will not work reliably. Good luck

MSFusionHV

Timing a crash is impossible. People have said for 10 years the US market is overvalued. While I believe the market is due to an extended downturn, I don't know when that will be. It is possible things keep going up for another year or two or three... But there are decent ways to deal with this concern. First.. be exposed to global markets not just US (VT is an excellent fund). Second.. consider adding some value exposure. Third.. consider alternatives that are zero or negatively correlated to the market.. Fourth.. simply add more cash/bonds. All depends on your personal beliefs and tolerance for tracking variance. A crash isn't just about the initial drawdown which could go on for years but also the recovery and for example US large caps could stagnate for a decade while other segments do well. It's possible and many people aren't prepared for that. Good luck..

Ancient-Swordfish292

TSLA is 2.38% of the S&P 500 and 0.96% of VT. I'm doing VT and chill, so I am 1% concerned about TSLA. I actually hope it tanks. Elon is a jackass and bad for society, but please have some perspective here.

Machine8851

Thats good. You'll make more with the 20% VGT than you will with 80% VT

cantthinkofuzername

VT and chill. The math supports this over the long term. Go have a real life!

taplar

Optionally buy a total world etf, like VT.

BillNyeForPrez

Right? Just put 1.5m into VT and withdraw as needed.

subfloorthrowaway

At this level, Id probably be a little bit more conservative, 90% into VT, 10% into whatever bond fund. Then I'd retire.

aronnax512

You don't stick the derisked portion into a savings account, you roll in into a broad market ETF. It's also not going to zero (AMD is still a well run, profitable company with physical assets) but it definitely could tank 70% (it also could keep running). You'd be in a position where it'd be like if you'd bought VT or VOO with that initial money, plus received "free" shares in AMD equal to 2/3 of you current AMD share position. The point is to set a floor under your winnings where you won't backslide below where you'd be if you did the safe thing in the first place, without completely sacrificing future upside.

znightmaree

“VT and chill” income category

dissentmemo

I think if it's in VT I already am. If not, I'm not.

kmouratidis

Buy VT or some shit. Don't like it? Equal weights, small cap, value, small+value... There are many research-backed choices. Or YOLO into one random stock like a proper degen.

witchesbrewm

Whatever diversified ETF of fund you buy, you will always have a lot of tech. You could sell everything and buy a 60% VT and 40% BND or something like that. In Canada we have a lot of asset allocation ETFs (VBAL, XEQT, etc), but for some reason I can’t find a US equivalent.

kmouratidis

How did you get 37% though? VOO/VT are at 28%. Factor tilts? Margin? Includes contributions as gains?

Cruian

What would SCHD be doing for you? Single fund portfolios: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/tg1az5/should_i_invest_in_x_index_fund_a_simple_faq/ This is one of over a dozen links I have that can help explain the reasoning behind that: * https://www.pwlcapital.com/should-you-invest-in-the-sp-500-index - invest in the S&P 500, but don't end there (this covers info on both the US extended market and ex-US markets) [a total US market fund combines S&P 500 + extended market into one] US only is single country risk, which is an *uncompensated* risk. An uncompensated risk is one that doesn't bring higher expected long term returns. It should be avoided whenever possible. Compensated vs uncompensated risk: * https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/uncompensated-risk/ >An uncompensated risk is a risk that you can diversify against. * https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/wealth-management/compensated-portfolio-risk or if that doesn't work, the archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20260107205255/https://www.northerntrust.com/middle-east/insights-research/2024/wealth-management/compensated-portfolio-risk >But not all risks are compensated with an expected return premium. * https://www.pwlcapital.com/is-investing-risky-yes-and-no/ (Bold mine) >Uncompensated risk is very different; it is the risk specific to an individual company, sector, **or country.** Consider this: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio The bonds are the part that adjust volatility level (if you really can stomach 100% stock, they can even be set to 0%, however not everyone is actually able to tolerate 100% stock). More bonds should equal less volatility. Alternatively, a target date (index) fund or target allocation (index) fund are effectively the 3 fund concept in a single wrapper, managed for you. They are designed to be "one and done," the only thing you hold. They're fully diversified internally for you. These can be found with expense ratios as low as 0.08%-0.12% for the Fidelity, iShares, Schwab, and Vanguard index based ones. The target date and target allocation funds typically are not recommended for taxable accounts but are fine for tax advantaged. VT (2 letters)/VTWAX would cover both stock roles in one fund. >I want to keep it as passive as possible. Then I'd really be looking at the target date fund.

brotherstoic

Dump it all into VT and let it ride

Empty-Librarian6775

Without the '87, '88 and '89 returns: Risk free rate: 4.3357 VT 8.8874 / 17.4237 P2 with initial weight: 69% US 9.8736 / 16.8207 (B&H) 9.8315 / 16.7229 (R-1) 9.8090 / 16.6840 (R-5/25) 60% US 9.8292 / 16.7189 (B&H) 9.6412 / 16.9113 (R-1) 9.7233 / 16.8746 (R-5/25) 50% US 9.5003 / 17.3797 (B&H) 9.4115 / 17.2484 (R-1) 9.5301 / 17.2628 (R-5/25) P4 60% US 9.7846 / 17.2569 (B&H) 10.0081 / 16.9741 (R-1) 10.0052 / 16.9816 (R-5/25)

PastBuy8484

If it were me I’d do VT and forget about it. Adds some international exposure too.

steve_yo

5 years from retiring, I think I’d be tempted to buy something much broader than the S&P. Maybe something like VT. Sure, you might miss out on some gains, but with your proximity to retirement, you may also not dip as low if there is a correction. You’re nearing capital preservation mode.

Bman282828

VT especially with the short horizon to retirement.

GloomyCardiologist16

Maybe consider adding some VT so that you have a bit of international exposure

Empty-Librarian6775

US market cap was 69% of total market at the beginning of the backtest in 1970. A fair comparison would of used that allocation as a starting point and get even better results. P2 with: 69% US allocation: 10.17/16.51 (B&H), 10.20/16.43 (R1) and 10.22/16.37 (R-5/25). But a 50% US allocation does also well: 9.85/17.09 (B&H), 9.85/16.91 (R1) and 9.99/16.91 (R-5/25). Compared to VT: 9.33/17.08 So it's not the allocation overfit.

kmouratidis

They *think* VOO returns will outpace currency-adjusted VT/VXUS, so they keep pumping money into it, even if they're not Americans. Btw, YTD 9.84% vs 11.19%/13.98% respectively.

Empty-Librarian6775

**VT advantages** are overstated IMO, at some point a part of your portfolio will be fixed income and you will do some sort of re-balancing anyway. **Re "rebalancing premiums"** : the buy-and-hold portfolios, which don't actually rebalance, did better than VT. **Re** **"overfitting"** : I lean more toward a structural flaw in VT that affected it over that time period rather than overfit - last paragraph of the post gives a clue as to why. **RE "effect magnitude"** \- 1% over 30 years is 35% higher end wealth. \- QQQ - S&P500 over the same period is 0.72%

spectra2000_

VT and forget about it

Ancient-Swordfish292

VT

FootbaII

Now compare VT's returns to buying and holding Bitcoin from 2011 to today. VT lost? Hindsight is a powerful too, ain't it?

reggionh

lots of people who VT and chill isn’t doing it to max their gain. the “hidden cost” you identified is a mix of backtest overfitting and rebalancing premiums. even with all that, the edge is meagre. it doesn’t show structural deficiencies of VT.

Ancient-Swordfish292

VT and chill.

dissentmemo

VT

cjorgensen

VT and chill.

emcdeezy22

$VT

LibraryUnlikely2989

Buy VT tank the whole world

Iwubinvesting

VT

taplar

If you want to include international you could buy VXUS, or consider just buying VT. 

Nikoalesce

Yessir. 95% of my port is VT. 5% is whatever individual stock I think might be cool at the time. Currently it's EVLV. 

alteraltissimo

Yep. 90% in VT, 10% picking solid stocks which only go up. Never bought a non-paper option. Life is good.

Primary-Effect-3691

It'll be fast tracked to the FTSE Global All Cap too afaik, so in VT fairly quickly. It'd be significantly diluted in VT though, so a SpaceX crash won't have too much an effect on the portfolio (unless it brings the whole market down)

Ehh_littlecomment

Only QQQ is impacted by the float multiplier right? VT, etc should be relatively safe still.

seanmic1

1. Buy now. Always buy now. Especially if your planned holding period is 6 years. One month is nothing compared to 6 years. 2. A "safer" ETF compared to SP500 ETF would be something like VT, where you buy the whole world instead of just the US essentially. But since you are medium risk, why find a safer option? Go for a riskier ETF. 3. From experience nothing beats the SP500 in terms of the time investment to returns ratio. Especially for a 6 year time span. You can try to find a more niche ETF but that is up to your research. Perhaps some AI or robotics ETF might do well in 6 years? BUT I can't guarantee anything. 4. When having multiple ETFs, make sure they don't overlap, because then you'd rather just invest into one or the other. You can have some stocks as well, but if those stocks are already in one of your ETFs, then I suggest just sticking to the ETF unless you are making some deep calls. 5. The normal suggestion is 30% stocks and 80% ETF but that's again up to your preference. 6. Yes, you should take more risk. If you have a reliable source of funds in case everything goes to shit (e.g parents money), then you can afford to take more risk. Only if you are already financially struggling would I suggest to be safer. Hope this helps :)

Notable_Naps

I know this is a gambling sub but VT really is the single best stock to buy if you legit want to buy and not look at it for 5-10 years and be up. You're buying USA and international stocks in one etf. Alphabet isn't a bad choice but for pure no worry play you buy the market and chill. Obviously it won't have crazy growth levels but it's just about the "safest" stock play.