VT

Charli-XCX

Something NOBODY is mentioning is tax harvest gains. If you put all your safe investments in your brokerage account and make less than $49,450, you can tax gain harvest every year. Let's say you make 35k a year. You have 20k in VT ETF in your brokerage, it grows 15% in 1 year to $23k. After holding that ETF for 365+ days it turns into a "Long term" investment. Long term investments are taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on your INCOME FOR THE YEAR. So you sell the $23k of VT and buy it back immediately. You pat 0% tax since 35k of income + 3k of gains in your brokerage = 38k total, you are well below that $49,450 threshhold before your gains would be taxed at 15%. Your new cost basis is $23k instead of $20k. You do the same thing next year, over and over. If you reach retirement age and ALWAYS made below the threshhold, then you could theoretically not pay any taxes on your whole retirement in the brokerage because you tax gain harvested every year already. Your tax cost basis would be the whole thing basically. THEN you can always withdraw from your roth at retirement age so it would all be tax free. This is much more flexible if you're living on the edge of poverty because you could withdraw all of your gains AND contributions at some point in the future if there's an emergency.

bobjohndaviddick

The only fund I'd put money I may need within 5 years in is VT.

Naive_Freedom_9808

I'm still kicking myself over this one. I'd considered buying it back in November when it was around $250. I didn't think it would shoot up like it has. It's been on my watchlist - amazing to see it stay green consistently despite the overall market dips. I could've doubled my money over a few months if I'd bought in. Instead, I dumped almost all my portfolio funds into VT out of fear of playing it too risky.

Dull_Vast_5570

I really doubt you'll listen to reason, but you should really just hang on to that $1.4 million. DCA your entire portfolio into VT and just never trade it. Hold that forever and only sell small pieces of 1% or so when you need income to live. Then it will average like 8% per year and you can retire soon. Anyone who can go from $3mill down to less than half that in this market in a week will get absolutely wiped out to zero in a real bear market.

Machine8851

I use VT as my core holding at close to 55% and have the rest in 2 satellite positions in AVDV and SOXX

Savings_Power_859

# $353k ready to invest for 3-4 years for down payment on home Hey all - hoping to get some of your sage advice. I'm in a HCOL area and believe it or not, on a single income with one kid and another hopefully in the next 1-2 years, I'm in a position where even $353k isn't enough for a downpayment. Based on the single income I'd need to have the down payment be around $500k. I wouldn't make up that $150k by just monthly saving and sticking it into a HYSA. I spoke with a financial advisor yesterday and they said with a 1%+ fee they would manage it and hedge my risk as the market fluctuates. The more I read though I feel like the best path is to just stick it in VOO, or maybe a combined VOO + VT (to get international exposure) and just let it grow over the next 3-4 years. Is this silly? I understand the market could obviously go into a bear for a prolonged period of time, but I just don't see any other option but to take on some risk. I was thinking I'd do $10k/day DCA until it's fully in the market and just step away from it. This money comes from crypto gains after holding ETH for 7 years. I made the stupid mistake of chasing the Silver craze recently and already lost a good amount, so looking to cleanse myself of the gambling mentality and be a good steward of this money moving forward. Very much appreciate any insight and advice!

LightForceUnlimited

You shouldn't add overlapping equity funds in with VT. Some people do use a small amount of their portfolio for speculative assets. I have seen quite a few people go 95% VT 5% Gold. Though I myself went 100% VT.

Acrobatic-Song-3151

I appreciate the response and the details. I’m actually retired too, walked away from corporate America at 41. I doubled up during Covid allocated those gains to buy three properties. Our goals are likely more aligned than my age reflects.  I’m at 20% international, been trimming VWO because I agree with you on emerging mkts. It’s like that chart can’t ever break through and it Taiwan breaks TSM will be in real trouble. Buffet sold that one early for that very reason. Half of our net worth is buried in real estate and the financial assets are: 50% domestic, 30% bonds, 20% international. The domestic is value oriented. I’ve been trimming domestic daily, flipping to international, and was hoping this last dip would get deep enough to pivot more out of bonds into VT.  Do you have any bond exposure?  I honestly thought long term rates would’ve come down more by now and likely need to trim my blv position, possibly pivot more into vxus. Bnd likely isn’t moving much more after a decent back half of last year. I did well with bonds during Covid, thought I was positioning myself for one more rotation out of them into equities. After taking gains from last April I bought even more. Also kinda addicted to selling tlt puts, been trading it from both sides for years. I’ve just been rebalancing daily and the guys I used to seek guidance from have mostly aged out. They’re still rich, have just been watching them make late age mistakes and think they should hang it up. Guys get so focused on never paying taxes they put their money in investable 1031 zones that are crap shoots. Another one got so confident with option straddles he blew up 300k early last year. 

Cruian

VT would be essentially the equivalent, VTI would not be as it is US only.

Forsaken-Proof1600

VT

Acrobatic-Song-3151

I was selling a Conseco analyst a high end car before the fiscal crisis and he told me, “You know nothing and never will because we’re on the line with these companies all day.” I should’ve taken his advice and bought indexes as well. To recover from GS I plowed into SSO and made it back. By the time the flash crash occurred I’d learned so much, but was still reckless.  Buying VT now because at 46 it’s time to get even more lame.  What’s your international exposure as a % of your equity portfolio? 

Jo351

You were focused on VT and SPY in your original comment though. I will agree that there are plenty of bad products available. Your framing is misleading though. Expenses are % based and would be spread out across the entire $145 or $687 share. It has no material impact on an individual company. The fact that it is such a small share in each company is by definition diversification, just because fees are more than the holding in a single company that does not eliminate them from the basket.

Maleficent_While2653

VT is my core holding about 80%. The rest I put into other sector ETFs or stocks that I think will do much better in the medium term at least. But VT is the main engine that propels the entire portfolio at a slow and steady pace. VT doesn’t need the highest return in order to be worthwhile. That’s what people don’t get. Once your portfolio gets to 6 or 7 figures and beyond, even a 5% compounding annual return is a large chunk of money. And you get that with an extremely cheap fund that requires no thinking at all.

Fun-Personality-8008

Just buying $1000 of VT every Friday like I always do

Machine8851

Well thats why VT is my core holding, the same way VOO would be a diversified core holding. I dont think you understand what that means

StatisticalMan

This assumes you can beat the market. If you can beat the market then why use VT.

Machine8851

I disagree, VT is a great core to use as a portfolio as I use this fund myself as a core holding. Its better to have a few satellite positions off of it.

seldom_seen8814

I think it is. I do like to augment my portfolio with some commodities as a hedge, crypto, and thematic ETFs I like that are speculative (play money portion). I also recently added DBMF as a hedge. VT is probably not going to be the MOST profitable. It would have probably been more profitable to go 100% on QQQM in 2009 than to go 100% on VT, but between 2000 and 2009 there would have probably been less of a downside to 100% VT than other ETFs that were heavily into tech. Nevertheless, VT is probably the best core holding to own, in my opinion.

StatisticalMan

>Pairing with schd or something else good or stick to vt?? There is no reason to pair any ETF with VT. VT you own the whole global market (well technically a representation of it). You can't add any equity fund to VT and become more diversified. As for SCHD specifically, dividends are not free money. No need to add SCHD to any portfolio.

WackyBeachJustice

It's not only fine, it will absolutely beat the living poop out of most people in this sub in terms of performance long term. It's incredibly counterintuitive, which is why subs other than /r/Bogleheads exist. Simple logic says that if you put in effort, you'll do better than someone who doesn't. In this case an absolute dummy can invest in VT and not even know what a P/E ratio is, or care. Why couldn't someone on this sub who spends incredible amount of time and effort reading, learning, debating, do better than that? The irony of course that most here will under perform over the long term. But the allure is too great.

Virtual_Secretary_98

Does VT and chill outperform most people on this sub?

Aevaris_

The funds are fairly new so can only go back to 2011. But most common broad indexes can get you 6+% yoy on average since 2011:https://totalrealreturns.com/s/QQQ,SCHD,VT,VOO,VXUS

ComfortablyNumb8357

I'll assume you were just left $10k as I would not sit on cash trying to time the market. By VT with all of it today.

Machine8851

VT is a great fund but I wouldnt make I wouldnt go 100% VT. Its a great core holding

composer98

One thing to keep in mind for any market cap based collection is how strongly that influences what gets bought for your dollar. Look at VT, for a fairly easy and not very dramatic example (many ETFs are far far worse): for your dollar, you'll buy $0.04 of NVIDIA. Ok, sounds fine. You'll pay only $.0006 in fees every year. Ok, sounds fine. Now what is not so fine, scan down the list of stocks you're buying until you notice that you are buying even less of those stocks than your $.0006 in fees!! At about position 300 already, you are really buying less of the stock, and the other 9,700 stocks, than you pay every year in fees. So it is far less diversified than it sounds.

SwingLord420

Lol!  I'm down $35,082 on AMZN today so count your blessing mate. Only -1.3% tho so I guess you should also size correctly. Maybe 383 is a lot of your portfolio (if so, stop buying individual stocks and focus all your effort on your income/job).  My first 2m in the market was basically all $VT and now I'm just using play money.  If you're complaining about losing $383 then imo you shouldn't be picking individual stocks. 

GrandGlacier1

I don't trade my 401ks, so they are still in managed funds I do trade my post-tax: Holding more cash, bought more VXUS, bought more VT, sold some individual stocks like HOOD (which I bought at $30). Scott Galloway thinks the AI bubble will pop this year, which will impact all stocks fwiw.

ATUGA

VT is up .76% YTD. Those damn Bogleheads… 😡

Wings2493

Microsoft and Nvidia yet this sub likes to tell everyone they just buy meme stocks. Critical minerals/rare earths, energy/nuclear, bitcoin, gold/silver, space, drones, healthcare, it’s all absolutely tanking 20-40% in a week to a month. Yet you’ll be told but the S and P is only down 4%! I’d love to know how many people here actually 100% VT and KO lol.

Maximum-Sign-5983

67% AMZN 33% VT I’m fucked

azure275

Don't log in to your investment account. Save enough money to not have to sell at a bad time. That's really about it Can I ask you why you're so broken up about the fact VT closed $0.07 higher than a month ago, and even VOO which has done worse is only down 1.8% in a month?

azure275

I think that thinking you're smarter than the market isn't going to go well Also congrats you now will be taxed on the profits of the first sale at your income tax rate since it's a short term investment, and you may not be able to write off your new losses if you botch the landing and sell them. You'd still be about even right now if you'd stuck it in VT and chilled. VT is down 0.7% from a month ago.

Mackinnon29E

Exactly prefer VT for that international exposure

Micksar

I think I’m just gonna go back to dollar cost averaging into VT…

greg_r_

This sub isn't invested in SPY or VT

FrankDrebinOnReddit

VOO and IVV are both the S&P 500, so if you only want the S&P 500 (large-caps), then VOO is already diversified. If you also want mid-caps or small-caps, you can use VTI (which is total-US-market), or buy mid-caps and small-caps separately (e.g., SPMD and IJR, which are the S&P 400 Mid-Caps Index and S&P 600 Small-Caps Index). These should be much smaller allocations than your S&P 500 allocation. Also consider some international, either separately (VXUS), or you can just get total-world-market (VT).

azure275

Fun fact: I invested some money in VT at 138 a month ago. Then it fell to 135 and I "lost" a decent chunk of change. Now the current dip is 144 and I'm still up about 4% in a month lmao

carnewbie911

Ya I dropped like 40k on VT etf. It’s gonna crash for a while now. I pretty much bombed the whole world equity. You are welcome. 

MonzellRS

VT and chill

StophJS

Tempted to liquidate my VT here and put a third into ASTS, RKLB and NBIS. But if I do they will never recover.

Unusual-Eagle-9451

VT still green YTD

Acrobatic-Song-3151

If Tesla and Space X end up being 7% of Spy I’ll just put my money in an equal weighted index. The only things I’m nibbling at today, while selling flowers, are VT and VXUS.  Also a tad short Tesla because it’s worth almost nothing. 

moosewithamuffin

Puts on VT

StophJS

Tbh so happy to have moved the vast majority of my money to VT and auto invest. Actually feels good to see a big correction. I know, I don't belong here.

Maximum-Sign-5983

67% of my money is in AMZN. Put the rest in VT 33% and I’m deleting Robinhood.

fakerfakefakerson

Start with the assumption that global market cap weight is optimal then deviate if you believe you have either identified a market inefficiency or have a utility function that differs from global aggregate investor base. You’ve almost certainly not done the first (that’s not to say the markets are perfectly efficient, but if you’re asking this question, you probably aren’t in a position to identify that correctly). The second is very likely true, but you still need to be able to identify what that means for yourself and translate that into a portfolio allocation (which is no trivial task). Failing that, you’re probably going to be best served by just buying something like VT and losing the password to your brokerage account for a while.

sapoabilio

If you can't answer to that yourself, my suggestion is to buy VT and read.

Dear-End8908

Don't rebalance. Buy $VT ad infinitum and don't sell until you are close to retirement and rebalance with some fixed income or whatever allows you to sleep at night.

DependentCheck992

VXUS is shit compared to VOO/VT

geetarman84

The two I mentioned was to rotate more into growth SCHD to VTI and EPD(mainly to dump a MLP I didn’t need the income from) into VT. My portfolio is all boring ETF’s, VTI/VT/VXUS/SCHD, 6% BND, 6% IAU and maybe 1 or 2% stocks. My trading days are over.

GaylrdFocker

For a taxable account stick to ETFs. You shouldn't have to worry about capital gains being forced every year and they are easily transferred if you want to change brokers. Just do 100% VT, that will cover the entire US and Intl market.

ClosedDimmadome

The rationale behind it depends on what you're invested in. If you invest in some random penny stock, there is effectively no reasonable argument to keep investing when it's going down. If you invest in something like VT, an ETF that tracks the global market, you're betting on the entirety of the world's economy not to implode over a 30 year period. I agree with others who say invest when you have income. Keep that emergency money in the HYSA. Best of luck on the job search!

bobby1128

thats overview. VT, VXUS, and VOO each make sense depending on someone’s outlook, and you laid that out well

MizDiana

I previously wrote the below in response to a question asking what would be considered a safe long-term asset: Diversified. (A single company being 10% or less of your portfolio, or an ETF with broad holdings. This includes similar investments. I.E. holding two computer memory-producing companies are not diversified. You can see them as sharing the same risk profile.) No known volatility. (Commodities, penny stocks are volatile. Foreign bonds issued by a country or company at significant risk of default are volatile.) Key holdings of the investment not located in a likely war zone. Not dependent on political support. (Will a change in government = death of the investment. See: Biden-era initiatives to spur rare earth mining & refining that were killed off by Trump. Also, this is why Exxon won't invest in Venezuela.) Not heavily taxed. (I.E. Real Estate held in jurisdictions with a large annual property tax. That CAN be okay, but only if you have good reason to believe in long-term appreciation of the real restate will significantly out-perform the tax rate and/or it earns rent. I mean, we're usually only talking like a .25-1.5% annual tax here, but that is applied on total value, not gain.) Not easily stolen (this rules out physical metals & crypto). I mean, I'm crazy enough to have silver in my portfolio, but I don't keep physical silver. I like my ETF silver to be insured and held in a vault with professional security guarding it. Actors more powerful than you also have a significant interest, providing a protective force against malign actors. (Basically, would screwing you over on your investment also screw over politically powerful rich people - not individual power but class power? If so, the power of those rich people will help you. For example, it is highly unlikely that - even under Trump - the USA would default on its debt obligations. Why? Instant political death for anyone who does so because soooo many rich Americans & powerful institutions hold bonds.) Increasingly, I like geographic diversification as well. (So many investors are 100% invested in U.S. stocks, for example.) A good portion of my portfolio is quite safe by these standards (BBJP, EWY, VGK, as examples). A good portion of my portfolio is NOT safe by these standards. But I don't expect it to be & I more regularly check how those non-safe assets are doing. All that said, no investment is a guarantee. Intel, for example, used to be thought of as a rock-solid blue chip super-safe performer. It is down 20% over the last 5 years & is now pretty volatile and exposed to a government-held stake. -------- Because I have a fair knowledge of international affairs & thus a sense of where has better underlying economic fundamentals, I invest in region and country-specific ETFs. I re-evaluate where I've allocated my funds about once a year (or when major elections happen in areas I am invested in). If you don't have that knowledge, my strategy would be less useful to you. A common strategy recommended these days is "VT and chill" - VT is an ETF that attempts to replicate overall global performance. It has U.S. stocks, European stocks, Asian stocks, African stocks, etc.. It's the way some people try to achieve asset & geographic diversification I talked about in my screed above without having specialized knowledge. VXUS is a similar index fund that has only international (not-USA) holdings. It is what people recommend for investors that don't have specific knowledge that can add value & believe the USA is in for bad economic times over the next 4 years or more. Before Trump (and still today) you can see a lot of people recommending "VOO and chill" - VOO tracks the S&P 500. Essentially it is a holding diversified but geographically not-diversified (all USA stocks) fund. It's what people recommended for low-attention multi-year investing if you believed America had economic advantages the rest of the world did not have. So there's your three basic recommendations for someone who doesn't have some specialized knowledge they can rely on most people not having. VT = whatever, just invest in everything so I don't have too much risk anywhere and because improving technology should mean the world economy always grows. More or less what /u/pikapika505 and /u/brewgeoff suggested. VXUS = same as VT, but I think the USA is in for shitty economic times. VOO = same as VT, but I think the USA is special and will consistently do better than other countries.

Emotional-Power-7242

In a taxable account it's better to use ETFs than mutual funds because they're more tax efficient and if you should ever decide to switch brokwrages you can just take ETFs with you. So yeah just VT or a combo of VTI/VXUS.

Familiar-Stranger172

Fidelity 401k user here, 27 years old. Here's my allocation: \- 50% FXAIX (S&P 500) \- 25% FSGGX (international) \- 10% FSMDX (US mid cap) \- 5% FSSNX (US small cap) \- 10% company stock Mind you, this portfolio is paired with a roth IRA that is 100% pure VT etf.

Emotional-Power-7242

During unemployment is a terrible time to start investing. So go get a job first. Then contribute lots of money to your 401k and/or Roth IRA, put it all in VT, and don't worry about it.

Putrid_Pollution3455

God would be a little annoyed that you’re risking this much instead of buying VT/USFR and donating the interest and dividends to charity

Jack_at_BrewLedger

Just buy VT, chill, and thank me later

GrandGlacier1

I started buying more VXUS and VT recently. Before I was a 100% US equities investor. Not to mention China has been making trade deals with Europe/Asia while the US has been alienating everyone. 

brewgeoff

Buy the global market, if you deviate from that you better know what you’re doing. Your core should be VT/SPGM/DFAW or something with a similarly global approach.

blorg

I'm European living in Asia, I think the US is overvalued and international is likely to outperform over the next decade but I also think you'd be nuts to rely on that and dump the US entirely, it could well be wrong. Almost all financial analysts have been pointing out the US is overvalued by CAPE, etc for the last decade and have been predicting lower US returns. And they have been dead wrong for the last decade, until the last year. If you followed this advice ten years ago, you would have done absolutely terribly. I just buy VT, US and ex-US, I will take whatever the global market return is. Not all-in on the US, but certainly not all-out on the US either, I still have more US than non-US.

AverageAngling

Are you trying to buy a house or not? If yes keep it in cash (HYSA) or tbills like SGOV on a broker. If no invest in VOO, VT, VTI etc

3VRMS

VT and chill if you want higher risk, keep up the passive investing over the next two years. Or add some bonds in of you want to tone down the risk a bit + have more dry powder to endure/make more money should a down period arrive.

Emotional-Power-7242

If you are going to put all your money in a low fee target date fund or VT/VOO and never take it out till you retire it is better to do it yourself. It will probably do better than the advisor and you will pay less in fees. It will almost definitely do better than the broker after fees are subtracted. If you are going to do anything other than buying a target date fund or VT/VOO it may be better to use the advisor.

BallEnvironmental670

I'm holding VT, so probably less than 1%

zxc123zxc123

This. OP is just a retard. I can't believe first commenter even gave them such a serious answer. Like you know what are the largest constituents of VT? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTI/holdings/ Top 10 accounts for about 34.5% of total fund. SpaceX IF it got to 1.5T would be at the bottom of the top 10 if not right outside of it. >"You are literally becoming the exit liquidity for the VCs and insiders who got in early. They cash out at the top, and you are left holding the bag for a mature asset that is priced for perfection." Also OP is also wrong in thinking IPO = "the top" as the majority of companies continue to grow post-IPO. Plus OP talks like VOO/VT/VTI doesn't already have exposure to SpaceX """"They cash out at the top, and you are left holding the bag"""" Alphabet GOOGL/GOOG BY ITSELF owns around 7-9% of SpaceX shares. Bank of America bought in on a 2018 funding round. So even in the improbable case of immediate listing and addition into the index. AND then the improbable case of immediate 100% exiting by existing shareholders. AND THEN the improbable case of immediate of SpaceX going to $0. Even in that specific case, would probably lose even less than 2% cause the 100% exit by existing shareholders would mean Alphabet, B of A, and other companies dumped their shares.

sami_regard

SpaceX will not go tits up. Guaranteed. VT will continue to be safe fund. You retard.

42nd_loop

DFUS is the VTI alternate and DFAW is the VT. Again lol I stated in the long form, the difference is negligible and not worth rebalancing a brokerage account or losing sleep over. If space x and open ai do collapse, markets fucked for a bit

42nd_loop

Essentially, the are “actively” managed but not in the bad way of *certain* types of ETFs. They do a variety of small differences in order to not exactly follow the index like tradition index funds. The big example is waiting longer to buy IPOs as most IPOs are naturally overvalued and fall shortly after. Another improvement is excluding a lot of small- cap “black holes” that have historically had major losses, yet are still included in total market indexes and thus index funds. They aren’t major and have technically, slightly, underperformed the traditional index funds, but the logic behind them is strong and why a lot of people follow them. Ben Felix has a couple videos on his YouTube channel explaining the benefits over VT and VTI, but tbh a broad market indexes fund is like 99% of the way to be the best. The strats that Dimensional uses are great, but the market isn’t immune. For example, if space x and OpenAI collapse like OP predicts, the market is fucked regardless of which fund you invest in as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc are public companies and have already invested massively in these companies.

CApoontappa

What about the insiders that will turn their 100k-1M investments in those companies pre ipo that will 100x their money... wont many exit and put that money into etf like VT or Vti?

zendaddy76

OP, it takes a 2-3 year time horizon to see these things play out, and you won’t win every investment. I aim for an 80% win rate on a 1 year basis, compared to VOO and VT, and even then I only invest 5% of my net worth in individual stocks. GOOG for example was a great pick up at 150. If you feel like you’re not good at it, however, just stick with VT and chill 🤙🏽

Code_X_HD

Do I look at what VT is investing in or just invest in VT?

Emotional-Power-7242

Buy VT and actually make some money for once G

GriffinTurbo

Went through the same thing at your age (I'm 28). Looking back, I'm grateful. I flipped it into a positive by realizing active trading is a loser's game. Open a Roth IRA & commit to maxing it out every year into index funds (VT/VTI). Start now, you'll have millions by retirement in tax-free gains. If you want, set aside \~$5K to see if you can actually become profitable/beat the market long-term (Spoiler: You won't and will lose it all). Good luck! PS - You currently have 7X more money than the average 24yo. Fuck that up at your own discretion.

WineNot2Drink

VT is the new VOO. And yes, it’s heavy USA but I just think it’s better to diversify outside the USA these days.

corn_dick

Less bad but also bad! 50% of VT is US markets. Smart investor will exit US entirely at this point, beside select companies

h2opolopunk

VOO and chill is old and busted, mate. VT and chill is the new hotness. 😎

RoverV

Just buy VT, add to it whether it’s up or down, don’t add money you need to survive, and never sell. There are sometimes periods the market is down or flat for long periods of time. If you have a plan and stick with that plan, you’ll be fine. If you need money in the short term, just utilize a high yield savings account.

Virtual-Ducks

how many years have you beaten VT?

Virtual-Ducks

No, because the finance nerds have already done that and the price already reflects that. Let's say there was a some new strategy out there that out performs the market. As soon as it's discovered, everyone emulates it and it immediately becomes baked into the stock price. Now that the new strategy is baked in, you need something new otherwise you're back at gambling. (Do some research, this is a complex phenomenon that is hard to explain in a short post).  For you to beat the market, you would have to find stocks where literally everyone else is underestimating the stock, in which case the stock will be priced at a lower value than their actual value. For you to predict that a stock is undervalued, you'd have to know something that everyone else is missing. Which is not impossible, if you have expertise in a specific area, or you have a wealth of financial, economic, survey data your company has collected that is not available to the public. But you at home? Unlikely, unless you are an expert in something (e.g. AI researchers could probably see the AI boom coming a few months before everyone else caught on. A specialist doctor might see the value in some new biotech development before everyone else realizes it's market potential, etc.).  Sure, you can do some research and have some sense of which companies are more or less risky. Coca cola is a fairly stable company that isn't going away. That new startup might go to the moon or crash completely. Your research may get you that far. But beyond that, it's very hard for the average person to predict what happens next. It is effectively gambling, not investing. the vast majority of people don't beat VT and those that do, simply got lucky.  Planet Money podcast recently had a good episode on bubbles that touches on this, that I recommend you listen to. 

MomentPrestigious180

UGL --> ZSL --> VT I'm officially done (see you tomorrow).

MomentPrestigious180

A day like this is why I'm glad I switched to VT 100% the other day.

codeartha

Your filters are sound, however that's not all for a good strategy. That said don't listen to that butthurt commenter above that there is just no point trying to beat VT because nobody can. This is plainly not true, lots of people can and do beat VT year after year. No need to be a hedge fund, actually its harder for a hedge fund to beat the market than for an individual, nor do you need a degree in finance. You do need some financial education, but you can get it on your own. Why can an individual beat the market, because the market is not efficient and because of momentum. Both of these create a lag between the real market and a theoretical efficient market. Market takes time to react and often overreact. This gives the market hysteresis and gives you time to enter or exit not before and after a move but at the beginning and end of a move. You don't need to nail the exact bottom and top. An individual can get in and out much quicker that a hedge fund because you are smaller. You wont singlehandedly affect the price. An individual can also be 100% cash during some downturns, thereby avoiding the big drawdowns some fund have. You will have drawdowns, just smaller ones. What more do you need to make your filters into a strategy? Well some risk management and money management rules. They need to be set in stone, written down in your investment plan. You need to track your trades and then review them to check if you followed your plan and what you did wrong so you can improve next time. Even on trades that were big winners.

R3dFiveStandingBye

Add VT too

IDrinkSulfuricAcid

Bagholding AVGO, NFLX, MSFT, UNH, and now NVO. Maybe I should fullport VT and be done with it. But nah. I hate money.

Glad-Lie8324

Most people don't know enough to fairly value companies. That's the simple truth. Institutional investors who manage millions might know a thing or two, and even they only find great opportunities once in a while. Only something like a third of all equities outperform the market over a 5 year span. That number drops more and more over longer time horizons. Only 4% of equities account for all the wealth generation of the stock market since the 20's. If you think you're finding genuine opportunities that everyone else is missing, it's more than likely you're chasing the hype and you'll get burned in the long run. With that said, I too think I'm smarter than everyone in the whole world and have deluded myself into thinking I can make money on equities so I allocate a small portion of my portfolio (10% or so) that I try to beat the market with, just to scratch that itch. My opinion is that truly great opportunities are more scarce than plentiful, and I try to limit my number of "buy" to 3-5 per year. I aim for companies I would never sell and basically try to follow all the Warren Buffet principles (competitive moat, great company at a fair value beats fair company at a great value, high free cash flow, strong ROE and ROIC, strong balance sheet and good cash management to weather storms, quality management, etc. etc. TLDR: Opportunities don't exist for the layman, and you should just VOO/VT and chill unless you hate money.

oran12390

I've also diversified for that reason. When I first started investing I allocated 90/10 to US/World but now I'm closer to 70/30. Compared to 10 years ago it feels like the market is more irrational far more often. That type of volatility makes me nervous. Probably going to end up with 50-60% in VT.

Virtual-Ducks

First you get a PhD in economics/finance/computer science/math, then you would at a finance company with a team made up of some of the world's smartest humans where you conduct thorough, advanced analysis over the course of weeks/months/years. Or perhaps you have some advanced degree (MD, engineering, etc.) which gives you some special insight into the impact of some startup that others haven't seen yet.  Otherwise, buy VT. You are not going to be able to compete with finance groups spending literally millions of dollars on large teams of world experts trying to answer this question. 

ComprehensiveEbb4978

VT

SmilodonEX

Currency moves cut both ways. Chasing FX swings is a tough game.. SPY vs VT is more about diversification goals than trying to time the dollar.

valuevestor1

Yes. But in any other currency such as Euro or CAD, it has risen a lot less. If you still didn't move from spy to VT, now is the time to do it. The dollar is losing its value, along with the assets denominated in the dollar.

mtnrnnr802

Are you from VT??

IBangTokyoWife

VT and chill. No need to overcomplicate

chasingnirvana9

VT

Trom22

VT performance has traditionally followed US stocks. Even recently it barely has outperformed VOO. If u want international exposure consider FRDM

Victah92

if volatility keeps you up at night, you’re not ready for options yet — and that’s okay. Most adults aren’t either. Start boring (VOO/VT), build income outside the market, and let time do the heavy lifting. The goal isn’t fast money, it’s staying in the game long enough to matter.

axewoodsman

Sorry to hear that. Just invest in an index like VOO or VT and hold long term. As long as you have a job, just reinvest any extra money into them over time, you'll make your money back eventually and more.

Helpful-Staff9562

VT and chill

Rockatansky77

Invest in everything, diversify. VT, VTI/ VXUS. Add some momentum or a specific sector you have faith in QQQM FTEC VGT SOXX SOXQ or maybe you want small caps. If you want precious metals and or Bitcoin make it 10-12%