VTSMX

ambientocclusion

VTSMX, assuming it meets the minimum

lilwoozyvert420

Or VTSMX so you can reduce fees

Elle_thegirl

I didn't start saving til about age 34 or so. I had to pay back my student loans from nursing school but I was always working. My spouse always worked too, we didn't take any time off. Now I'm retiring early, before age 60. Putting away $100 month into a total stock fund in a Vanguard Roth account doesn't sound like much, but over the years it adds up. And once you have some money in there, it makes its own money. Keep in mind that when it comes to a Roth account, you will NOT touch that money until you are at least 59 1/2 years old. You can't without penalty. Learn to live with that truth. It will pay off for you. You don't touch that, not for anything, no matter how bad you think you need it. Call Vanguard and they will help you get set up. Best advice you ever got from Reddit 😜. Again: make a Roth savings account at Vanguard. Tell them you want 100% of your deposits at this point to go to their US "total stock market" index fund either VTSMX or VTSAX, depending on how much $ you have to start with). It is well diversified across US markets and the "expense ratio" (operating costs) are practically nothing in the world of investing. As time goes by, in about 10 years, you should diversify more with additional index funds. But for now, just worry about step 1. Create the Roth at Vanguard and see if you can transfer some of your 11k into it to get it going. The fund will grow, not as fast probably as the S and P fund, but your risk is more divererse. In the current chaotic market, it's a pretty long term safe bet for NOW. As long as you are working and earning some money, you can contribute to your Roth. Don't get confused by "ETFs" or anything right now, you will not be a frequent trader for this long term investment so you don't need to worry about ETFs or index funds. The index fund is fine, and use that language when you speak to the Vanguard guy. Go and Good Luck!

Historical-Apple8440

I’ve been auto investing into VTSAX (previously VTSMX) for almost 2 decades now. It’s silly how much that has worked.

thewimsey

In general, it's easier and better and more efficient to have as few funds as possible. If you want to have an international component, just use one of the several all world indexes; that will give you global exposure at the proper ratios and you won't need to rebalance or realize gains. Alternatively, you could use VTSMX (or equivalent) for your US portion, and an ex-US fund in the percentage you want for for a separate international portion. You will still have to rebalance, and realize gains but only between two funds. With five funds, you might find yourself after a year with 35% VTSMX, 20% NAESX, 20% VEURX, 10% VPACX, and 15% VEIEX. (or whatever) Meaning some tedious selling and buying to rebalance, plus capital gains taxes to pay.

kuedhel

oh please, who in WSB buys VTSMX if you can issue put options instead.

ambientocclusion

Vanguard. VTSMX for the entire market or VFINX for the S&P 500.

that1time-

Largest shareholders include Baird Financial Group, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Ieq Capital, Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, AWM Investment Company, Inc., Russell Investments Group, Ltd., BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital There was an 8 million dollar public offering back in may. I still believe they are a great company with so much potential. It’s not an overnight money maker but in the next year or two we might see some serious movement.

selfemployedsince16

So why do the 3 large equity groups get to decide how much to rob my grandparents on power?!?! Duke (and most other energy companies) “Largest shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc, BlackRock Inc., State Street Corp, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Wellington Management Group Llp, VFINX - Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares, Massachusetts Financial Services Co /ma/, Geode Capital Management, Llc, Capital Research Global Investors, and Morgan Stanley”

selfemployedsince16

Duke energy “Largest shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc, BlackRock Inc., State Street Corp, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Wellington Management Group Llp, VFINX - Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares, Massachusetts Financial Services Co /ma/, Geode Capital Management, Llc, Capital Research Global Investors, and Morgan Stanley .” Why do they get to pump prices on human needs?

Motorbarge

**Basic Stats** * Institutional Owners: 22 total, 22 long only, 0 short only, 0 long/short - change of -31.25% MRQ * Shares Outstanding 6,348,624 shares (source: Capital IQ) **Institutional Owners** From Fintel (edited) * INTRACOASTAL CAPITAL, LLC : 174,054 * Hare Joshua: 1,084,888 * ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC: 1,836,000 * FSMAX - Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund : 4,309 * FNCMX - Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Fund: 500 * FCFMX - Fidelity Series Total Market Index Fund: 641 * FSKAX - Fidelity Total Market Index Fund 3,345 * VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares: 6,509 * VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares: 17,623 * IWC - iShares Micro-Cap ETF: 1,044 * Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC) 2,595 * Creative Planning 10,933 BlackRock Inc.: 11,141 * Wells Fargo & Company/mn 471 * Vanguard Group Inc : 24,132 * Jpmorgan Chase & Co: 129 * Pnc Financial Services Group, Inc.: 297

that1time-

I’m just trying to help you all out. Largest shareholders include Baird Financial Group, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Ieq Capital, Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, AWM Investment Company, Inc., Russell Investments Group, Ltd., BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital

that1time-

Largest shareholders include Baird Financial Group, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Ieq Capital, Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, AWM Investment Company, Inc., Russell Investments Group, Ltd., BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital

that1time-

Largest shareholders include Baird Financial Group, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Ieq Capital, Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, AWM Investment Company, Inc., Russell Investments Group, Ltd., BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital

that1time-

If you mean to tell me that these investors don’t know what they are doing and don’t have a great history of predictions then I don’t know what else to say other than check their contracts. Largest shareholders include Baird Financial Group, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, Ieq Capital, Llc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, AWM Investment Company, Inc., Russell Investments Group, Ltd., BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital

kiwimancy

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio None of those share classes are 30 years old, but you can use VFINX for VOO and VTSMX for VTI, which are share classes of the same funds. QQQ is harder. You can try \^XNDX, the Nasdaq 100 total return index. Google shows it back to 2006 which is later than QQQ inception, but maybe there's a way to get it further back. Similarly for the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 index but I have more doubt that will work out.

No_Arm_6582

Trading stocks is fun, I allocate 5% of my total holdings to my webull account. I’ve had a day where I made 17k+— and i’ve also had a day where I lost close to 11k. (trading options) The rest of my stock holding are in various Vanguard accounts- mainly VTSMX. People have asked the same question you have since the market began- the answer is you will see many more ATH’s in your life, you will never see an all time low. Don’t try to figure out or time the market with more money than you’d bring to the casino- you’ll always loose

babarock

I agree with your last statement. I modified the backtest to use the mutual fund versions so I could go back as far as possible. VOO - VFINX and VTI - VTSMX for time period Jan 1993 - Dec 2023. VFINX - CAGR 10.03% - Balance $193,541 VTSMX - CAGR 9.94% - Balance $188,943 It sort of supports your view. At a cost of $4,500 you are able to get the diversification of the total market vs the S&P500. A minimal cost over the 20 year time span.

4pooling

You're right that SPX alone outperforms VTI + VXUS. My point about US large-caps still stands since SPX and VTI performance is almost identical, regardless if VTI has around 2500 more stocks than SPX. Just look at VFINX (SPX) vs VTSMX (oldest share class of VTI) on portfoliovisualizer.com Anyway, do you have anything of substance to add to OP's original question? We're both off topic lol

Livid-Gain6478

There probably aren't because ETFs have only been around for very long, and large cap growth outperformed over the past decade and a half. The first ETF was created in the 1990s and they didn't attain their current popularity until the 2010s. Of the three ETFs you listed, only VTI is 20 years old. Historically, small cap value has outperformed the market in the long term, but it typically goes through cycles of underperforming the market for a decade before surging ahead during several years of over performance. The past 20 years include one of the longest recorded periods of sustained underperformance by small cap value. You can, however, find examples if you include mutual funds. Since it's inception in 1993, DFA US Small Cap Value I (DFSVX) had an average annual return of 10.78% whereas Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Inv (VTSMX) had an annual average return of 9.76% over that period.

bethany95_x

hey there, it's great that you're looking to make some changes to your investment. i'd suggest looking into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) or Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX) to diversify your portfolio. also, consider speaking with a financial advisor to help outline a solid retirement plan. best of luck!

4pooling

You're mistaken. See link below. Also, to extend backtesting, always use the oldest share class, like VFINX (VOO is the ETF share class of VFINX, now offered as VFIAX). [VOO vs SPY 2018-2023 with dividends reinvested](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2018&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VOO&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100) Zooming out, there is an immaterial/negligible difference in performance between any S&P 500 fund in the fund universe. Additionally, any S&P 500 fund and any total US stock market index fund is also 99% correlated so returns have been almost identical. Just look at VFINX (oldest share class of VOO) vs VTSMX (oldest share class of VTI). Options chain is deep for SPY, making it extremely liquid. That's the advantage SPY has over VOO as a trading tool. As a buy/hold instrument, it doesn't matter which one you choose.

Vast_Cricket

VOO price is driven by 7 stocks(6 companies) for 85% of momentum, the rest window dress the balance of 15%. No need to check other stocks when these 7 are most red it tells you the index is down such as today. If you remove these 7 tech stocks over very long time you avg 2.5% on annualized basis. Why 1 less company. They include Googl and Goog together. VTSMX has a lot of overlapping stocks in different minifunds.

quelin1

VTSMX

loopernova

You don’t necessarily need to break up US stocks by market cap, unless you want to disproportionally weight a group. You can just buy VTSMX (VTI is the etf), which is a “total market” index fund. That includes everything from the largest to smallest cap.

Lechuwga1773892

—-^^Largest shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc, VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares, BlackRock Inc., VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares, Geode Capital Management, Llc, Natixis, FSMAX - Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund, Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp, and IWC

iknowbirdlaws

I don’t have to take it private, I can always do green mail to one of the major holders. Either way accumulation of 5% of the float inbound These guys will be happy to sell me all the float. Get those tendies and let’s get our KKR on everyone. Leonard Green & Partners, L.P., Royce & Associates Lp, Capital Research Global Investors, SMCWX - SMALLCAP WORLD FUND INC Class A, RYTRX - Royce Total Return Fund Investment Class, BlackRock Inc., ROFCX - Royce Opportunity Fund Consultant Class, Vanguard Group Inc, VTSMX

brianmcg321

Here is a logarithmic adjusted scale: [Log Scale](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100) Click on the inflation adjustment tab and then you will see its not nearly as impressive. Charts matter.

Dirkredblade

Yes, me personally, I would always pay off my house if I could. Maybe I'm more conservative than most, but I get the impression a lot of posters here have not been on their own during a bad recession - I was working and living on my own for 2001-2003 and 2008 and 2009. It's one thing to read or hear about a great recession, and another to live through it, lose a job and worry if you're going to lose your house. You mention living on liquidity if shit goes whack. First of all, I keep a 6 month liquid (HYSA) emergency fund. I would never keep 300k liquid, investments are not liquid. That 300k would be either in my paid off house, or in investments (low cost etfs/mutual funds). The problem with drawing from investments during a recession in job loss is that during the recession - A.) Your investments will be down %20-%50, so when you withdraw you will be locking in losses. B) During the recession a lot of people are out of jobs, so it takes even longer to find one, companies are afraid to hire. I'm older than most redditors (46). I am a fairly successful graphic designer, which is the career I always wanted, and frankly after 23 years, I'm kinda sick of working. The idea of not having to work, or working part time is way more appealing than some extra numbers in my retirement account. Regarding your question on if 300k was 10% of my net worth would I still pay off my house? Yes, why? It's peace of mind. If i'm worth 3million and pay off a 300k house, now I have 2.7 million. Let's say I'm retired and drawing 4% a year. The yearly difference on that is 120k vs 108k. However, a mortgage is probably bigger than the 12k difference, so i may actually feel richer living on 108k without a mortgage. And even if i didn't, there is just something about having a paid off house... you dont have to worry about anything... Let's do another exercise. I graduated in 2000. Let's say I inherited 300k upon graduation and immediately invested it into VTSMX. Then I added $6000 a year, because that's all i could afford because I had to first save for a house and then pay a monthly mortgage of roughly $2,000 a month. Today, in 2023, according to portfoliovisualizer.com, my VTSAX would be worth 1.9 million. Or, if instead, I bought a house cash, and then invested 2k a month, that VTSAX would be worth 2.02 million. So for this time period, i'd actually have more in my investment account, plus a paid off house, plus i would have lived 23 years with less worries. I'm sure there are time periods where straight investing would have beat paying off the house, but i chose those dates for my life timeline. In the end, it's probably 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Do what you feel is comfortable. Good luck to you brother, i hope your ride through life is smooth with no bumps.

quelin1

Penny stocks probably aren't the answer. Buy shares in a broad market ETF. Add more money every month. Reinvest dividends. Get a job with a 401k match. Invest as much as you can into the 401k and your ETF. Then branch out into some Vanguard mutual funds similar to VTSMX. over 20 years you will be significantly farther ahead than most of the rest of us here.

throwawayinvestacct

>Any advice? A. As others have said, stop gambling and just buy broad market indices. VTSMX has more than doubled since 2017, at an average CAGR of 12.28%. By active investing to the tune of -1.67% instead, you've lost tens of thousands of dollars. Stop that and you'll already be a lot better. B. You say you "max out" your individual 401k and have been investing since 2017, yet only have a 67k balance? Are you sure you're actually maxing that account? My easiest advice would be to put the money in there, up to the actual 401k limit. But, whatever account you buy it in, just buy a US Total Market fund or a vanguard target date and be done with it.

AP9384629344432

As long as investors collect the divvies and benefit from share buybacks, we should be fine. I did a backtest, 50/50 split in Altria and BTI, versus 100% in VTI (well a mutual fund equivalent). Going back to 1992, $10K would have become $392K in the first vs $163K in the second. [Link to backtest](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=MO&allocation1_1=50&symbol2=BTI&allocation2_1=50&symbol3=VTSMX&allocation3_2=100). Going back to 1985, the CAGR of MO/BTI split was 15.3%.

TheEmpty

Thanks! My inexperience outside of a bull market (graduated uni 2015) is showing. Since I am hoping to retire in a few years (software engineer), got to keep this mind and really backtest some stuff from like 1999 to present. Do you think VTSMX and VBMFX would be a fair thing to use in [https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfoli](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfoli) oh I see your link is to there too, I'll check out the tickers you used too. Thank you both for saving my ass!

juststocks_

$VTSMX

digital_tuna

You're overestimating the impact of selling shares in down years, a total market fund is significantly more stable then you're assuming. From 1993 through 2022, there were 22 positive return years and only 7 negative return years. And in 12 of those 29 years, the total return exceeded 20% which is what helps offset the bad years. [You could withdraw $162,000 per year, adjusted for inflation, and you'd still have over $2 million remaining even after 29 years of withdrawals.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=2000000&annualOperation=2&annualAdjustment=162000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=true&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100) Which dividend-focused portfolio do you want to compare this to?

fatagrafah

Don't bank on past performance, obviously, but VTSMX (the oldest share class of the fund) [has had a CAGR of 9.61%](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100) since 1993. And the total stock market's CAGR is [10.32%](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=TotalStockMarket&allocation1_1=100) since 1972. Inflation's a concern, sure, but you'd still get \~$200K at that return. It'd just be worth less.

BenDarDunDat

My advice would be to try again by investing your money in Fidelity Fund or VTSMX. Stop gambling and build real wealth. If you want to gamble, try to put the odds as much in your favor as you can. Google has a valuation of 1.5 trillion. It IPO'd at 1.9 billion. Every weekday GOOG will go up or down a bit. You would be far more likely to make money going long on the stock. Even if you had horrible timing on your entry point, you'd still be way up.

HamRadio_73

We have had VTI in our IRAs since 2012. Prior to that our employer 401k plans was the mutual.fund VTSMX which we rolled over and converted to VTI. It has served us well for decades and continues to anchor our portfolios. Set and forget it.

rotaspawn

So no I didn't follow anything in general or indv picks from the motley fool. The only thing I know for a fact is that statisticly no single advisor or analyst has been right consistently over a 4-10 yr window so I never listen. I buy VTSMX for broad stock coverage when I need more. The other point is when someone is touting the next great (or disruptive) thing I tend to be skeptical. See also (2001 dot com bubble) (2008 housing crash)

Wesley0890

Why are you worried about the economy? If your investing you want it to be “bad” because that means it’s all cheap to buy. Invest my dude. It’s not a gamble like your taught unless you day trade or short sell. Just put it into VT or VTSMX

brianmcg321

That’s because of their large dividend. You still made pretty good money. [INTC vs VTSMX](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=INTC&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100)

Cruian

>Admiral shares are a class of shares in mutual funds. They would be in contrast to investor class shares. VTSMX is the investor class equivalent to VTSAX. If you look them up, you will immediately see that the investor class has higher expense ratio but a lower minimum to invest. For broad coverage index funds, Admiral share is now the entry level share class. I believe it was November 2018 where Vanguard made the change (they also lowered the Admiral share entry cost to $3,000, the same as Investor tier used to be). I am pretty sure this was in response to Fidelity combining their investor and institutional level share and dropping minimums a few months before, as well as the introduction of the Fidelity Zero funds (so $1 could now buy into the same share class as the biggest "non-trust level" 401K plan).

nd20

You are conflating two different things. Admiral shares are a class of shares in mutual funds. They would be in contrast to investor class shares. VTSMX is the investor class equivalent to VTSAX. If you look them up, you will immediately see that the investor class has higher expense ratio but a lower minimum to invest. ETFs (VT) are a different thing, that would be contrasted to the concept of mutual funds themselves.

bobmarles3

There’s no need to assume. You can see the total returns here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2001&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VGTSX&allocation2_2=100 While US has returned more since 2001, the difference is nowhere near as large as 259% for VTI and 12% for VXUS

apooroldinvestor

Here's some data from portfolio visualizer for COST vs. Market COST. 3yr 17.68%, 5yr 21.30%, 10yr 18.86% VTSMX 3yr 6.87%, 5yr 8.60%, 10 yr 11.96%

apooroldinvestor

Cause I'm not 100% confident of course. I'm guessing. Just like UNH has outperformed for 30 years. 2 years ago I put 5% in unh and I'm now up almost 50%. Go to portfolio visualizer and type in COST and VTSMX and see the history of cost returns vs. The market. It will outperform given 5 years. Always does.

apooroldinvestor

From 1996 till now BRK.B has returned 10+% and VTSMX has returned 8+%. So yes it beat the market, many *stocks* do, but NOT money managers! Most people don't have all their money in ONE stock, especially for 30 years.

ConsiderationRoyal87

VBMFX is the oldest share class of Vanguard’s total US bond fund. VTSMX is the oldest share class of Vanguard’s total US stock fund. The US doesn’t have total return funds, in the sense that you can view their price changes indicate their total return. Yahoo Finance’s adjusted close data (when you click on the Historical Data tab) gives you a very close approximation of the total return.

apooroldinvestor

Ok. Went to portfolio visualizer and checked out ASML. From 1996 till now VTSMX (total market) has returned $106k ASML has returned $2.9 million

Grilledcheesus96

Exact? Close but not exact. [VTI vs SPY](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100)

paulsmt

>Also people tend to forget that this was the markets return!! There were plenty of blue chip type companies like UNH COST LIN UNP NEE etc that gave From 7% to 20% a year all along! YTD TSLA -55.23%; AMZN -47.42%; Meta -65.76%; APPL -21.89; AXP -8.51%; NYSE Composite -11.23%; IXIC -30.49% I think betting in a casino would be more profitable. >If you had steadily added say $500 a month from 2000 to 2010 into VTSMX?? >You ended up with a 24% CAGR!!! So, adding your own money to a fund will increase your position in said fund??? Get out of here!!! Do you have an actual analysis to share? Money Market investments are offering 3-4%. It beats most indices now.

brianmcg321

Mutual funds. Here's a close approximation just using VTSAX. [2005-2022.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2005&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=20000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1500&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100)

Parabellim

No not really a “safe place” as such. You’d be a lot better off parking some money into Series-I Bonds. Obviously limited to like 10k a year. But still safer than stocks as such. I think maybe park some money into a few total market type funds like VTSMX. That way at least you’re only gonna lose money if the entire market loses money vs potentially getting very unlucky on individual stocks, since you said you want safety.

Meymo

Good questions. Primarily, this will come down to the velocity of money. Two concepts are important for this discussion: CAGR and TWRR; CAGR - compound annual growth rate; TWRR - time weighted rate of return. In Scenario 1, you make your final investment in the year 2000. From 2000 - Present, your CAGR is 6.12% (as of last month). In Scenario 2, you're starting and/or still making contributions to your 401k. Under this scenario, a person who adds $2k/mo into their S&P investments (this would include employer matching as well, which reduces the capital that the employee contributes) from [2000 - now, ends up with $2.1 million dollars](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=2000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100). In this case, your CAGR will be much higher, while your TWRR is still 6.12%. Of course, in this scenario, the more capital you start with, the lower your CAGR will be since 2000-2002 was a solid drawdown period. The success or failure criteria of both scenarios depends on an individual and their spending habits. A 6% return on $10,000 is only $600, which isn't a very meaningful return in today's environment. A 6% return on $2.1m is $126k, which is a bit more useful compared to the price of goods and services today. As your contributions grow, so does your velocity of money. Even in today's economy, $126k coming in per year on your investments would cover your medical care and would cover mortgage payments (if you still had them) on a home. For the best outcome, a person still needs to amass as much capital as possible in a compounding vehicle. Even if that compounding vehicle is only returning 6% per year, having more money to earn that 6% return on is going to be the determining factor as to whether your retirement is successful or whether you'll need to make drastic changes in your lifestyle as you age.

apooroldinvestor

No. It outperformed VTSMX from 2000 to 2010 also.

Meymo

>It took until 2015 to recoup the losses from the nightmare above. [No. It really didn't](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100). If you had invested in January of 2000, you would have been even by 2006, after 3 years of drawdowns. Then you would have been ahead by about 20% on your initial investment by 2007. Then, in 2008, you experienced the largest drawdown on the S&P in the past 40 years (subprime collapse, 50% month-to-month max drawdown). Recovery from this would have taken until early 2010. The classic 60/40 portfolio would have experienced even less volatility over that time frame. For people who don't want lockups: the new online bank accounts are going to get people close to the FFR as we move forward in 2023/2024 (e.g. SoFi already pays 2.5%, 50bps below the bottom of the FFR and they update the rate as the FFR gets updated at the FOMC meeting)

TomTomz64

Not all return comes from the price. [There's a thing called dividends](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VGTSX&allocation1_1=100&allocation1_3=40&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100&allocation2_3=60).

apooroldinvestor

From 1990 till now. $10k in VTSMX (total market) generated about $45k $10k in UNH is now almost $9 million. I like the sp500 but I can't seem to put much in it.

quelin1

VTSMX or some other broad market fund, I like VTSMX cause vanguard tends to have lower fees, but any are just about as good as any other. Time in market is the key. You wont get a yacht, but you will make enough that you can eat at the yacht club cafe a few times a month.

BucsLegend_TomBrady

> we notice that there has never been a year in the past 25 years where the US is down but International markets are up There are periods of time where international outperforms though, like this [six year period.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2002&firstMonth=1&endYear=2007&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Bogleheads+Three+Funds&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VGTSX&allocation2_2=100) I think it's the better reason is: When international outperforms the US, it out performs by a little. When US outperforms international, it out performs by a LOT. So if you can weather the times when the US under performs, you are disproportionately rewarded when it out performs.

Meymo

For me, it would take some material changes in International/Emerging Markets in order to consider them investable. For example, when we look at the [US vs International investing](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Bogleheads+Three+Funds&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VGTSX&allocation2_2=100), we notice that there has never been a year in the past 25 years where the US is down but International markets are up. That is, when the US has a bad year, so do international markets. When international markets have a bad year, the US sometimes has a good year. I would want to see a sustained trend of International markets going up while the US markets go down or stay flat. Personally, I don't think that it will happen any time soon with the DXY strength that we've seen recently.

wantstoknowyourstory

Exactly. That's what I found when I looked at the [asset correlation](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VEIEX%2C+VGTSX%2C+VTSMX&timePeriod=4&tradingDays=60&months=36) between emerging market funds like VWO and VTI and VXUS. VWO is not as correlated as VXUS is to VTI (and therefore S&P 500). For true diversification, there's GLD.

geethanksdumocrats

Well there was a huge run up before the crash, so using “1999” as a year to start is not representative of buying the top. Also VTSMX only “crashed” about 20%, whereas QQQ lost over 80%. Here is a better comparison: If you invested $100k in QQQ in March 2000 (peak of the bubble), it would be worth about $325k today. If you got out before the crash and bought the bottom of QQQ in September 2002 with $100k, it would be worth $1.5 million today. HUGE difference. Don’t bag hold the crash…there will be ample opportunity to create generational wealth if you just wait for Powell to stop pussyfooting around because as soon as we crash, QE is back.

Meymo

Portfolio Visualizer. I've filled out an [example for you](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=MSFT&allocation1_1=100) If you click that link and scroll down, you'll see that this shows a monthly contribution of $1,000 towards Microsoft, and you can see the growth over time. Click on the "monthly" tab to see the exact dollar amounts that are changing each month. You can replace MSFT with whatever fund you want (e.g. VTSMX, VBMFX, etc.). You can also select multiple securities/funds and see what the aggregate change is across a portfolio (so for example, you could do 60% VTSMX, 40% VBMFX + monthly contributions and see the outcome).

jbrady33

NO!!! it was a totally free web site with advice - even rating index funds by the lowest fees possible (at the time it was the VTSMX Vanguard total stock market index)

MONGSTRADAMUS

Historically speaking if you put in 2000 a month for last 29 years in vanguards sp500 or total market you are looking at 4.6 million or so. [Vfiax vs vtsmx last 29 years ](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=1&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=2000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=Vfinx&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100)

DiversifiedReturn

VTSMX is the US Market(what the commenter above referred to). S&P 500 is a large cap blend fund. Two very different things. For reference, over this specific period S&P did 11.76% CAGR. Barely more than the cap-agnostic Momentum fund, less than the high profitability fund and growth fund.

Days_End

I see you needed to specify VTSMX instead of just using the provided "Vanguard 500 Index Investor".

DiversifiedReturn

[Is that so? Guess I need to get my eyes checked.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=VTSMX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QMOM&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=DURPX&allocation2_2=100&symbol3=DUSLX&allocation3_3=100)

WolfStreet2024

Top holders of Evofem Biosciences Inc sourced from 13F and NPORT filings include: Vanguard Group Inc with 6,419,245 shares representing 18.14% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 6,860,966 shares. This is a decrease of 441,721 shares or 6.88 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0001 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is a decrease of 11.71 percent from their report three month prior. VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares with 3,910,163 shares representing 11.05% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 4,334,863 shares. This is a decrease of 424,700 shares or 10.86 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0001 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is a decrease of 14.62 percent from their report three month prior. BlackRock Inc. with 3,910,109 shares representing 11.05% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 3,921,774 shares. This is a decrease of 11,665 shares or 0.30 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0000 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is a decrease of 4.54 percent from their report three month prior. Mirador Capital Partners LP with 2,807,681 shares representing 7.94% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 80,017 shares. This is an increase of 2,727,664 shares or 97.15 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.1933 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 2,959.98 percent from their report three month prior. VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares with 2,316,042 shares representing 6.55% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 2,325,054 shares. This is a decrease of 9,012 shares or 0.39 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0008 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 0.18 percent from their report three month prior. Geode Capital Management, Llc with 1,521,357 shares representing 4.30% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 1,362,128 shares. This is an increase of 159,229 shares or 10.47 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0001 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 4.86 percent from their report three month prior. First Wilshire Securities Management Inc with 1,100,000 shares representing 3.11% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 1,100,000 shares. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.1314 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 2.06 percent from their report three month prior. FSMAX - Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund with 888,977 shares representing 2.51% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 888,977 shares. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0011 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 18.26 percent from their report three month prior. Susquehanna International Group, Llp with 676,693 shares representing 1.91% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 1,146,920 shares. This is a decrease of 470,227 shares or 69.49 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0000 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is an increase of 18.01 percent from their report three month prior. D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. with 491,726 shares representing 1.39% ownership of the company. In it's last filing, the firm reported owning 2,259,926 shares. This is a decrease of 1,768,200 shares or 359.59 percent. Additionally, the investor currently has 0.0002 percent of its portfolio dedicated to EVFM. This is a decrease of 77.77 percent from their report three month prior.

DiversifiedReturn

Not terribly surprised by that fund getting beat. [here we can see it](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=VTSMX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=RYMFX&allocation1_1=10&symbol2=CASHX&allocation2_2=100&allocation2_3=10&symbol3=VTSMX&allocation3_1=90&allocation3_3=90) with Port 1 - used as a 10% hedge for VTI. And with Port 3 - Cash used as a 10% hedge for VTI. Reduced drawdown and increased returns. That's with the 1.75% ER drag of that archaic mutual fund you found. You can find the ER in the Exposures section of Portfolio Visualizer. I didn't say negatively correlated with the market. I said uncorrelated. Negative correlation does indeed result in strong potential for terrible returns.

4pooling

Yes it's wild how idiotic comments are in this thread and subreddit as a whole. SPY and VOO track the same index so to be safe, OP should use other tax loss harvesting partners in taxable accounts to realize losses in 2022 tax year (reducing your taxable income, only 3K max in losses per year). Here's a list of tax loss harvesting partners for SPY: SPY and VTI SPY and ITOT SPY and SCHB An alternative is to simply sell SPY now and then wait 32 days (to be safe from wash sales) and buy VOO after 32 days. Zooming out: US total stock market index has performed almost identically to the S&P 500 since inception. For proof, look at portfoliovisualizer.com and use VTSMX (oldest share class of VTI) vs VFINX (oldest share class of VOO).

4pooling

Amazing how trashy comments are in this thread and subreddit. Always do your own research, OP. SPY and VOO track the same index so instead use other tax loss harvesting partners in taxable accounts to realize losses in 2022 tax year (reducing your taxable income, only 3K max in losses per year). Here's a list of tax loss harvesting partners for SPY: SPY and VTI SPY and ITOT SPY and SCHB An alternative is to simply sell SPY now and then wait 32 days (to be safe from wash sales) and buy VOO after 32 days. Zooming out: US total stock market index has performed almost identically to the S&P 500 since inception. For proof, look at portfoliovisualizer.com and use VTSMX (oldest share class of VTI) vs VFINX (oldest share class of VOO).

uusi

Its great that you are so interested in investing in the future, but reading some books isn't going to get you ahead of a hedge fund or private equity funds. 99% of us are just riding the wave that is life, and the idea that you can just put a small sum of money in the perfect investment and be set is a pipedream. You'd be much better off focusing on finding a career you find mildly interesting and maximizing your potential there, while following the simple rules of average people investing: 1. Maximize income 2. Minimize expenses 3. Invest in Diversified funds (Target Date funds, SPY, VTSMX, etc) 4. Leverage Tax Advantaged Accounts (401k, IRA, HSA, etc) 5. Time in the market is better than timing the market Do those things and you'll be in a great spot, particularly since you are only 18. Many years of gains to be had.

DiversifiedReturn

Alpha Architect, Avantis, and especially Dimensional Fund Advisors would like a word. Lmao https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=DFFVX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100

DiversifiedReturn

They have not underperformed for decades.... https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=DFSVX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100

rackoblack

>VTI Several have mentioned VTI, which I like better than just the S&P 500. More diversity. More exposure to small-midsized companies. At some brokers you can buy partial shares. Or if [Vanguard.com](https://Vanguard.com) is an option where you live, you can open an account there and automate $100 a month going into VTSAX, the mutual fund equivalent. If you can't start with the minimum $3K (I think) balance, you might have to start with VTSMX. Once you hit the right number, ask and they'll switch it all over to VTSAX. Eventually, aim for two accounts (at the same firm, one for retirement and one to save/invest outside of that.

apooroldinvestor

I'm sure if you punched all your little numbers unto UNH over the last 30 years you'd be saying it "has no chance", "won't beat the index long term", blah blah and spend hours at your desk analyzing for 30 years instead of living your life. Well guess what know iit all? $10k in 1990 in both UNH and VTSMX and never adding and simply holding? UNH $1.7 million VTSMX $160k Ahahahahahahaaa!

apooroldinvestor

Here's a comparison of returns of a $10k investment in SHW vs. VTSMX over various time frames: 1992 to now SHW $862k VTSMX $160k 2000 to now SHW $561k VTSMX $44k 2012 to now SHW $102k VTSMX $38k 2017 to now SHW $32k VTSMX $19k

apooroldinvestor

So let me get this straight. You're saying that the last 30 years holding UNH versus VTI wasn't smart? A $10k investment in 1990: UNH $1.7 million VTSMX $160k And ALL OF A SUDDEN magically UNH is just going to have weak returns going forward cause I chose to put 10% of my portfolio in it 2.5 years ago and up until now have outperformed VTI? So I should now dump UNH cause it's now a bad long term investment? All if a sudden everyone's going to cancel their healthcare and UNH is only gonna return 5% a year and VTI is going to magically return 15% a year when forecasts for the next decade are 4%? I should sell all my MSFT AAPL GOOGL and NVDA cause VTI will outperform those as well LONG TERM? Nice try.

apooroldinvestor

A lot of stocks have beat VTI for 30 years. From 1990 to now UNH had a 22% return annually. VTSMX (total market) 7% annually.

Vesemir668

T vs VTSMX: 5,88% vs 8,08% CAGR, WINNER: VTSMX. Same with General motors and general electric. Those were huge companies in their day, similar to where Apple and Microsoft are today. Didn't mean shit to them when other companies surpassed them with different technologies. I don't know which companies will prevail and which won't. That's why I index. You can't be sure those companies you listed will prevail. Nobody knows.

apooroldinvestor

I'm not talking 30 years from now. You can adjust your holdings over time. UNH has a CAGR of 22% back to 1990. It's still outperforming VTI. Check out the last 5 and 10 year returns vs. VTI. VTSMX has a CAGR of 7% going back to 2000. UNH has a 22% CAGR from 2000. Healthcare and energy are holding up well. UNH is a top stock to own. When it's time comes I'll sell and move to something else. Easy.

apooroldinvestor

UNH. Since 1990 has a 22% CAGR. VTSMX 7%. That's 30 years. I bought UNH 1.5 years ago. I'm still up 42% while market is down.

apooroldinvestor

From 2000 to 2010 VTSMX (total market) had an average 1+% return. I'm that same time frame UNP returned 15% a year. So yes, the market at the index level may not move much, but lots of blue chips and other stocks will return better than the index. This is another reason I like having a percentage in individual companies rather than just VTI.

apooroldinvestor

You're really better off mostly in VTI and dcaing. You take more risk in single stocks but UNH COST HD UNP and stuff like that outperform the sp500 long term usually. $10k into UNH in 1990 and not touched is now worth $8.5 million USD. $10k in VTSMX (total market) would now be about $175k So UNH made you a multimillionaire in 30 years with a $10k investment. With VTI (vtsmx same thing) you'd be 6 figures but I guess you took less risk, but that depends on your definition of "risk" lol

apooroldinvestor

If you had invested 100% in UNH SHW ODFL ASML or a combination of those and many other blue chips vs. An index, since almost any date you have easily outperformed VTSMX (total market)

WhatCanIMakeToday

Another interesting aspect to this is it sets up a perfect place for a bailout. Let's say BAC borrowed shares of GME from VTSMX to sell short. Something happens making it impossible for BAC to return GME shares to VTSMX. Obviously, this hurts VTSMX. VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) is exactly the kind of fund people would have their retirement accounts (e.g., 401k and IRAs) invested in. Retirement account values plunge -- not good. Bailout a la 2008, again. Bailing out BAC directly isn't going to be popular at all. But, this convoluted structure allows bailing out the ETFs to preserve retirement accounts. BAC owns VTSMX so BAC makes money back through the ETF from the bailout. WTF, right? If this were to happen, BAC got to borrow a stock from VTSMX and short sell it collecting cash to pay fat bonuses. BAC never returns the stock requiring ETFs like VTSMX to get bailed out which get made whole by having the public pay their debts.

RacingUpsideDown

Wait, so let me just get this straight, using a single institution as an example? 1. BAC is borrowing shares of GME from VTSMX 2. BAC also owns shares of VTSMX 3. BAC is a constituent component of VSTMX's holdings? Like, I don't want to get all hyperbolic or anything here, but if this is accurate, this feels like the moment when Steve Carrell found out about those shadow funds?

Aaahh_real_people

Wrong, link your math please: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100

FUTUREMONEY888

Looks like INPIXON may bounce from this ATL institutions been accumulating they have only been growing with indoor mapping getting into crypto metaverse now did a offering around .48 closing of offering should be announced any day nice time to accumulate at .28 Top holders of Inpixon sourced from 13F and NPORT filings include: Armistice Capital, Llc with 7,023,950 shares (5.64% ownership) Vanguard Group Inc with 4,900,164 shares (3.93% ownership) VTSMX - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares with 2,722,801 shares (2.19% ownership) VEXMX - Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Investor Shares with 1,873,222 shares (1.50% ownership) BlackRock Inc. with 1,225,764 shares (0.98% ownership) Geode Capital Management, Llc with 991,677 shares (0.80% ownership) FSMAX - Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund with 680,814 shares (0.55% ownership) Gsa Capital Partners Llp with 569,580 shares (0.46% ownership) State Street Corp with 326,799 shares (0.26% ownership) IWC - iShares Micro-Cap ETF with 231,873 shares (0.19% ownership)

ConsiderationRoyal87

That *did* happen in the 2000s -- the US market had negative average returns from 2000-2009. But a diversified [portfolio](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2009&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&benchmark=-1&benchmarkSymbol=VTSMX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=DFSVX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=DFLVX&allocation2_2=100&symbol3=VEIEX&allocation3_3=100), including US small and large cap value as well as emerging markets would have performed fairly well during the 2000s. Of course, regardless of whether someone fears long periods of zero return, many people have a desire for higher returns. The question is whether most people have justification for believing they're the rare exceptions who can beat standard benchmarks over multi-decade periods, let alone on a risk-adjusted basis.

RainbowMelon5678

you've pissed off the r/LETFs community also why the fuck do you keep calling them lefts? they're not lefts, they're letfs. you're wrong but I'm lazy and eating a cake at 6 am. hear what tatabusa and presumably others will say. Also, show me a time where VTI lost 49.99% in a day. that literally is not possible. what you're talking about in regards to volatility decay has nothing to do with leverage. And to add what Tatabusa said, here's a comparison between [simulated HFEA ](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2010&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=0500&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=3&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=1&leverageRatio=200.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=3.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=true&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Bogleheads+Three+Funds&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=55&symbol2=VUSTX&allocation2_1=45) and [Boglehead 3 fund portfolio ](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2010&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=0500&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=2&rebalanceType=3&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Bogleheads+Three+Funds&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=50&symbol2=VGTSX&allocation2_1=30&symbol3=VBMFX&allocation3_1=20) during "the lost decade" where you DCA into simulated HFEA and a 3 fund boglehead portfolio. I wouldn't call it "significantly outperformed", but it did outperform on a risk-adjusted basis it seems. Zoom out even further and from 1997 (farthest back that 3 fund portfolio can go on PV) to 2022, and HFEA just leaves that 3 fund portfolio in the dust.

PapaCharlie9

> This is not multiple decades but I checked the graph of VTI and SPY [Here's how to get all the stats you need](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTI&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100), including inflation adjusted real returns. Pay attention to the Sortino Ratio on the Metrics tab. That's a good way to compare risk-adjusted returns. [If you want to go back further, we can resort to mutual funds.](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VTSMX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_2=100) > When you say you don't have an opinion about the ethics of trading stocks, you mean you don't have such sensitivity? No, it means I don't have an opinion for or against, nor "don't care", which is also an opinion. It's not something I've spent any time thinking about and don't plan to.

9c6

On the second point, it was pretty alarming for people when Tesla was added. On November 17, 2020, the S&P’s US Index Committee announced that Tesla would be added to the S&P 500 Index. Tesla’s entry was remarkable. On the day Telsa entered the S&P 500 it was the sixth largest US company by market capitalization. Tesla was the largest addition to the S&P 500, both by market capitalization and rank, in the index’s history. Meanwhile, Tesla had already been in total market and small cap Index funds since Tesla’s IPO in 2010. December 2010, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund was holding Tesla Motors Inc., 347,662 shares, with a total market value of $9,258,000. At the time, the market cap was similar to PF Chang’s and Jack in the Box. This is a big reason I prefer the total market indexes over S&P500 indexes, although, it’s really more psychological comfort, I have to admit. Comparing VFINX with VTSMX over the entire life of the second fund (since 1992) shows the two funds to perform essentially identically in all market scenarios. Given that knowledge, an investor shouldn’t lose sleep over which of the two to use for their US stock exposure.

thewimsey

SPY and VTI aren't identical. If you back as far as you can (1993) and compare VFINX and VTSMX (the mutual fund versions of VOO and VTI), there's a tiny advantage in favor of the 500 index with a fixed investment; $10,000 invested in 1993 would be worth $177,948 in the 500 index and $175,408 in the total market index. So it's not really worth worrying about. And do the same backtest but add a contribution of $1000/month (a more realistic test for most people) and you get a final balance of $2,681,055 for the 500 index and of $2,690,007 for the total market index. That's a CAGR of 20.20% for the 500 vs. 20.21% for the total market index.

SteveAM1

VOO & SPY are essentially the same thing, just different providers. VOO is cheaper though, so go with that. I wouldn't invest in QQQ, as it has underperformed the broad US market (VTSMX) since its inception. And I have no reason to believe it will overperform in the long-term. You should probably add some international stocks. Market cap weight is around 45% of all equities outside the US.

Historical-Apple8440

I posted this on December 3, 2021, and am posting it again..... Chiming in today. I have been investing 70% VTSMX then VTSAX, and 30% international (50/50, developed and emerging) for 15 years. Prior to this, a target retirement account since 1998 when it was "The Hot Newness" during the Dot Com bust. The majority of your investments should be broad, well-diversified, and low-cost funds. 80-95% Small amounts can be left for speculation. Do not fear the -1%, -2% and -3% drops. These are normal. Keep momentum and don't listen to the noise. Emotion is real and what you are feeling when you see markets swing down is valid. But ask yourself, will these investments generally go up in 5,10,15,20,30 years? Will you buy when it's crashing, low, medium, high, and soaring? if the answer is yes, close Reddit and yahoo finance, and go do some drugs and find some hobbies signed, the relatively old man in the room

SteveAM1

I thought this was interesting since QQQ still seems to be a very popular investment (likely due to recent performance). Since QQQ's inception, [it has underperformed Vanguard's Total Market Index](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2022&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=QQQ&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100). It has also had much greater volatility. So if you want to invest in QQQ, knock yourself out. But you can't say it's because it outperforms the market anymore.

Cyclotomic

What do you mean? ETFs may be a somewhat new product, but index based investing strategies far predate the 2008 crash and the subsequent market conditions, and broad index mutual funds have also existed for decades. For example, the VTI equivalent VTSMX has existed since 1992.