XLC
Communication Services Select Sector SPDR® Fund
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Why is my ticker down? Add these sectors ETF’s to your watchlist to understand the big picture
My 1yr returns using a synthetic long LEAP strategy.
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I mainly trade technology stocks and other aggressive stocks that are usually added to the following ETFs sectors like: XLK, XLF, XLC, XLY, and XLI. In fy23 I increased my portfolio to 161%, in fy24 it was 96% and this year fy25 it was up 114%. My portfolio has definitely increased significantly over the years. However, the market looks like it wants to come down, and it feels like it’s a house of cards, so I got out and sold all my stocks around November 11. And I’m just going to wait until breadth, sentiment, volume and momentum is back in the market before I start trading again. Happy trading everyone!
Two things can be true: - Black Friday sales are at a record - Retail sales growth is moribund, based on +3% y/y Black Friday sales. Sales are **supposed** to be at a record. Not only is CPI inflation generally positive (3% this year), but population growth means we should be exceeding this at minimum to show real growth at. Here are data for the last five years for consumer facing sector ETFs (XRT, XLY, and XLP) vs. the broader index (SPY) and tech stocks (XLK and XLC), which have actually driven returns. | Total Returns | Name | 2025 YTD | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| | XRT | SPDR S&P Retail ETF | 6.66% | 11.78% | 21.54% | -31.64% | 42.63% | | XLY | Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund | 6.09% | 26.51% | 39.64% | -36.27% | 27.93% | | XLP | Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | 2.90% | 12.19% | -0.83% | -0.83% | 17.20% | | XLK | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund | 23.67% | 21.63% | 56.02% | -27.73% | 34.74% | | XLC | Communication Services SPDR Fund | 20.25% | 34.70% | 52.81% | -37.63% | 15.96% | | SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 17.62% | 24.89% | 26.19% | -18.17% | 30.52% | I'm not sure what investor used to historical 11% returns from the S&P 500 and recent >20% returns can see US tech stocks absolutely ripping >20% again this year, developed international markets return ~30%, and emerging markets >30% can get excited about seeing low-single digit returns from consumer-facing stocks and say "hell yes, sign me up for this shit". And unlike health care, which was beaten down recently but recovered, this is entirely driven by fundamentals, not sentiment.
Changing sector weights to underweight sectors you think are more volatile probably won't be as helpful as you think. XLK (S&P 500 Technology) and XLC (S&P 500 Communications) have better 3 year alpha and Sharpe ratio than all the other S&P 500 sectors even though tech and communications are supposed to be riskier. XLP (S&P 500 Consumer Staples/Defensive) has worse returns and risk adjusted returns than IUSB (total USD bond market) over the past 3 years. Healthcare is another sector that's supposed to be safer, but the performance has been abysmal this year because of UnitedHealth. You thought DIA would be safer because it's supposed to be more spread across sectors, but UnitedHealth has noticeably dragged it down. DIA's limited holdings make it somewhat riskier than other index funds since it depends more on individual stocks. the DJIA is also weighted by price, which is a pretty nonsensical way to weight an index in the first place. If BRK-A was in DIA, it would be 99% of the portfolio. Ultimately, choosing to overweight a "safer" sector doesn't necessarily mean the value of your investment is safer, especially when adjusted for inflation. This also applies to asset classes, but at least a rate cutting cycle is beneficial for bond prices. Even foreign bonds are somewhat affected by rates in the US because foreign bonds are compared with US bonds. I used 3 year measurements because that's what my brokerage's app shows. Over the past 5 years, XLP has clearly outperformed IUSB.
Most sectors are expensive right now. XLF and XLC are relatively cheap.
I second **GDX** and **XME**. **XLU** has been good to me, but this little dip lately hasn't been fun. Mostly I wanted to second this: >I use LEAPS to add leverage to...ETFs. ETFs often get overlooked, but many of them actually have great returns: **GDX** 106% ytd, **XME** 52% And some don't: **XLU** 13% ytd But add the leverage of LEAPS Calls and watch out! For **XLU** you get 5.3 times leverage, adjusted for delta. So that ho-hum 13% becomes 68%, which is more than solid. Then sell low-delta Calls against them if you like, for a little extra juice. ETFS are quite a bit safer than individual stocks, because they don't have "single-issue risk." I use Barchart's ETF screener on 3-month performance (Has Options, Volume >1M shares), then look at their charts till I find **smooth** ones. Going up, of course, but 'smooth' takes precedence over return. Some others I like right now: **SIL/SILJ, MAGS, MCHI, XLC**
True, but that's why I have some XLC and FCOM etfs. Big in GOOG and META with all the other entertainment and phone companies latched on.
I’m long a September 30 QQQ put spread; 550/525. Now, I’ve lost more than 1/3 of my purchase price but in addition to a full allocation in GDX I’m comfortable in holding onto my longs which I call the best of breed stocks in software, semi’s; WMT, UBER, META, NVDA. Oh, can’t forget TJX , XLU & XLC. And so it goes.
Wouldn't a 20% google drop be, uh, bad? Between Class A and C shares it makes up around 4.25% of the S&P and almost 8% of Nasdaq. A bunch of ETFs (MAGS, XLC, FCOM, BHCP, GXPC, IXP) are over 10% weight on them. A 20% drop would shit in a *lot* of pies.
I wonder how old you are? I am 57 years old, but don’t know any bonds. A third of my portfolio is managed by me, presumably paying attention to trends that are important so I’m in gross stocks like SCHG and momentum like MTUM/SPMO. I also swing trade in my IRA. The rest of my portfolio is managed by a smart manager who keeps me in ETFs like SPYG, VOO, XLK and XLC.
Looks like funds are rotating out of SMH and XLF, probably deleveraging from semiconductors due to the tariff uncertainty. Not entirely clear, what sectors money is rotating into but XLC has pretty strong relative strength
Google’s got this two edged sword hanging over its head; and neither is going away anytime soon. Losing search to the newbies at a rapid rate, and the legal issues are potentially significant. However, I do own alphabet Classes A & C in the XLC, comm services ETF. So, I’m betting on NFLX & META to carry the load in this etf.
All these pages can be summed up in a couple sentences lol. Buy and hold diversified ETFs (SPY, QQQ, etc) or at least multiple sector-based ETFs (S&P SPDRs like XLC, XLY, XLE, etc etc). Then, don't sell. Keep buying and DCA (dollar cost averaging) into them over the years.
Got XLC, in-direct Nflix play. Probably hella regarded but Im pretty simple Jack anyways
LMAO, looking at XLC, the recent high was $0.01 lower than the previous ATH.
Mmm, but **XLC** was down 1% for me today. But I hold **VZ** too, and that 1.8% today was nice. And **T** was up 1.1%. So now I need to look at what's actually inside XLC...
> So just to be clear, you are saying a correction is coming soon, but not this week? Because you had said to buy heavy on a Monday dip. Yes. I believe the window for a proper correction begins in mid-April. This is a drawdown. We hit *very* specific levels and reversed. > I’m a simple gal but to me this makes sense. Retail and the general public are seeing an almost terroristic administration doing corruption in broad daylight and featuring a ketamine addict randomly firing thousands of workers every day. Public confidence collapsing seems to be the predictable result. You're equating dislike of Trump to a bottom of a worldwide recession and a worldwide pandemic. Don't let your political biases cloud your judgment. Besides SMH, XLK and XLY, most SPDR sector ETFs are up or flat. Even XLC's down move is deceptive due to its overweighing of Mag 7 stocks. Depressed retail sentiment is additional evidence against this dip continuing. We get real corrections at the point where euphoria rules and price movement moves in a parabolic fashion (e.g. April, July). SPX's recent ATH came with very little enthusiasm and was a slog to reach. > Except when they’re not, and really, the move of a week or two can be undone just as quickly if not faster. Which is almost never the case. The fortune of the financial sector reflects the global liquidity cycle and money velocity. In the same vein as the Cantillon effect, they experience the least lag time when the economy goes south. > I’m struggling with how to word this... I agree with you that dumb money absolutely overreacts. But over the years I’ve come around to realizing it’s sometimes best not to fight dumb money. Even if they’re doing something dumb like buying or selling something they shouldn’t, why not just participate but being more cognizant to take gains before they figure things out? 85% of all market liquidity is institutional. Out of the remaining 15%, 90% of retail inflow/outflow is controlled by 10% of the demographic. Retail doesn't move the market. As I mentioned, ST5W is telling us this retreat is not broad-based. Institutions front run downturns while selling off to retail with reassurances everything's alright. Just like the dot-com bubble, GFC, the mid-2010s, and COVID. Dark pool transaction volume exploded on Friday afternoon, telling us big money is buying back in; inversely, we saw a ton of selling at the top the week before. > Again, simple gal thinking here there’s sense to it. Flight from wacky tech to safety, plus a perception that a crumbling economy will spur rate moves favorable to financials. Some numbers showing re-sale real estate is moving, mortgages are starting to happen again. These perceptions, true or not, would let someone justify XLF, right? XLF is going up, XHB is still in a protracted downturn, XLRE has been crawling up since January. They want the ideal "golden ratio" when high rates intersect with debtor demand, where the latter doesn't dampen the former. Lower rates don't spur more borrowing if people believe the economy is in the gutter. > So essential a broadening then, which could be seen as healthy? That's the ultimate bearish sign. A broadening only means the total distribution shifts as money flows to other securities in different sectors. Everything should still go up to ATHs in a bull market at different rates. > Admit I don’t watch it that closely. I’m guessing a bounce? If so that would make simple sense to me as I perceived a big selloff had happened even though the current administration’s promise/threat of a “strategic reserve” is still on the table. Frankly down so much I had been thinking of upping my small crypt hedge just on the basis of it being possibly oversold. Up 12% off the announcement. > Main question is are you still advocating heavy buying mid-Monday? Yes. I expect a pullback at Monday's start. Institutions will unravel their short positions and deleverage the shares they bought to cover.
I'm retired and currently have a 40/60 (stocks/fixed income) portfolio. The fixed income side is giving me just under a 5% YTM from a bond ladder that goes out about 11 years. I replenish the rungs with bonds (including treasuries) that are about 11 years out. So at this point getting close to 5% return on the new rungs isn't much of a problem with a investment grade (including BBB/Baa). I also have some HYG. The long term total return on HYG is about 4.7%, that assumes reinvestment of dividends. That leaves the stocks to pull the overall return above 5%. So far it's been doing nicely. I primarily have SPY, QQQ, FTEC DIA, ITOT, XLC, XLB, and like everyone else, some NVDA. The interest payments are sufficient for me, at least for now, so I'm counting on those to get me through and corrections or crashes in stocks. I rebalance every 3-6 months. This lets me take some earnings off the table an put them in fixed income. That's the minimal risk portfolio that I came up with to get a 5+ % return.
I have a watchlist of non-leveraged ETFs on Barchart that I scan occasionally, so I just now took a look. I sorted by 52-week performance, then looked at the Mini-Chart View on a 5-year scale. Not that I'm looking for a good 5y trend, but a good year or two trend, and the 5y view tends to smooth things out. Some that look good to me, in no particular order: ARKW, ARKF, ONLN (very low volume though), FNGS, XLF, XLC Take a look at their charts and see what you think. And when you buy an ETF (or stock), put a Trailing Stop Loss order on it, maybe 10%. Buy them when they're doing well, sell them when they stop, that kind of thing.
We have to see the sub-indexes, XLF, XLV, XLC, ITB, SMH start moving upwards again if we want this bulltrend to stay intact. It's interesting that the SPY closed higher than QQQ on friday, suggesting that we might start to see the market start to broaden out again. Which is a good thing.
Sector etfs can be interesting if you want different weighting XLC,k,f,e,y,p,u
Every war in the Middle East has been a buying opportunity since the beginning of time. Why would this event be any different? Thank you bears for the free $29k in 3 hours from QQQ put credit spreads. Premium donation 🥰 Massive mean reversion on most tech names sitting right on 21ema. Easiest dip buy of my life. XLC is strongest sector with META and GOOGL performing as market leaders. Still holding massive GOOGL leap position https://preview.redd.it/b0pa3xwju6sd1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31792ed6801c47b8e4911958bd7bc95e3b46b37a
Dude tell me about it. Sometimes when I buy calls on the XLU the spread will widen by 50% in the last 3 minutes of the trading day, and subsequently reflect gigantic losses on my bottom line number. 😂 But they usually tighten up quickly when the market opens back up. Some are better than others. I forgot where I was looking the other day, maybe the XLRE or XLC, but the spreads were insane, like over a hundred dollars between the bid and the ask, and it was during peak biz hours. XLF and XLU tend to be a little more liquid, as long as you don't get wacky and go 6 months out or crazy OTM.
My fixed income portfolio (60% of my overall portfolio, I'm retired) is comprised completely of corporates bonds and treasuries. Over the last 2-3 years I loaded up on 4.5% to 5% yielding instruments. My bond ladder is 12 years out and overall the fixed income portion is giving me about a 4.9% yield. I do have some Ford S&P rated BBB (Moody's rated Ba) giving me about a 7.4% YTM, maturing in 2047, but I'm keeping an eye on that in terms of business conditions at Ford. That's propping up the yield a bit. I've simulated (included inflation) interest rate risk over the next 12 years by assuming yields dropping on 10-15 year maturities to the 3.25% range (included some BBB rated bonds in the mix). And assuming a 3% annual return on my stocks (in addition to dividend payments yielding about 1.4%, which I'm currently reinvesting), I'm still ok. What I mean by that is at the end of the next 24 years, my IRA is still healthy. I've dabbled a little in derivative based ETFs (JEPI included). It occurred to me that I was trying to get fixed income "security" (I use the term loosely) with the benefits of owning equities and it wasn't happening. When treasuries popped over the last 2 years, I said forget that stuff. So my stock portfolio is now: SPY, DIA, FTEC, XLC, VOE and VOT. The last two are a total of 5% of my overall portfolio. The bulk of it is in the first three. The FTEC is an IT ETF but it contains all sub-industries of IT (e.g. software, software services, hardware, semis, materials...). The FTEC position will probably move to QQQ as I sense the AI hype comes down to earth and hopefully manifests itself in real benefits outside of tech itself. That along with the Ford bonds are the only "market timing" aspects currently in the picture. Pretty basic and nothing fancy. But it works for me.
Yep. I got SLV Sectors that stand to benefit from rate cuts: Utilities, Real Estate, Comm Services. And if you look at the individual indexes(XLU, XLRE, XLC) you can see they are getting bid up. I doubled my money on at the money XLU calls last week in four days.
You can buy whatever you like. You can hold some in Treasuries until the market corrects. Or, if you just want to use a simple big brain strategy, just rotate it into whatever is currently down. Which currently would be like XLE, XLC, XLRE. It would give your more diversification anyway. But it's really up to you, cause there's no guarantee, since tech could just skyrocket forever for all we know.
Is asts in the XLC etf? It’s green compared to all the other etf
Are rklb and apst in the XLC. ?
IYK, XLE, XLC, PAVE, IWM, NLR, IYH...just look at some sector ETFs and pick a few where you like the composition. Many have double digit growth with a dividend. Never hurts to put a little bit of the portfolio elsewhere.
Just buy an ETF. Split your portfolio between VOO QQQ XLC XLK and then move on with your life. Life’s easy when you’re not checking your portfolio every 10 minutes tryna figure out what to buy or sell.
At this point tech will lead the market indefinitely even if sectors rotate for a time being. You should load up on ETFs but specifically ones that are more leveraged so like XLY is a great one, XLC, SDY, QQQM, and SMH to start. Those are all great picks, all time growth is insane pretty much never decline, and paying you dividends. I hope to get to the point where I can also have substantial positions in those. For now they’re in my list!
I'm going it alone after using a financial advisor for a long time. Trying to save that 1.5% fee. I have a general understanding of what to do - low cost index funds, let it ride - but have some specific questions. 1. Is it better to have a handful of various focused low cost index funds, or just throw it all in something like VOO? 2. If a few focused funds, should I be reallocating, or just let it ride? 3. What about tax-loss harvesting? 4. Any good resources on how to manage this myself? I've read a few books on the more general concept, but I'm thinking more specific implementation and maintenance advice. Here are the current allocations where things sit after leaving the advisor, across a few Roth IRA and and Traditional IRA accounts: || || |XLK|33.23%| |XLC|17.00%| |XLE|12.54%| |XLF|9.07%| |XLV|8.79%| |SWVXX|7.92%| |SPY|4.41%| |XLY|4.26%| |XLP|2.33%| |Cash|0.45%| Should I just keep these allocations, contribute regularly pro rata? I'm 40, married, with 2 kids (well 1, 1 coming Thursday). This is all in Schwab.
I'm going it alone after using a financial advisor for a long time. Trying to save that 1.5% fee. I have a general understanding of what to do - low cost index funds, let it ride - but have some specific questions. 1. Is it better to have a handful of various focused low cost index funds, or just throw it all in something like VOO? 2. If a few focused funds, should I be reallocating, or just let it ride? 3. What about tax-loss harvesting? 4. Any good resources on how to manage this myself? I've read a few books on the more general concept, but I'm thinking more specific implementation and maintenance advice. Here are the current allocations where things sit after leaving the advisor, across a few Roth IRA and and Traditional IRA accounts: || || |XLK|33.23%| |XLC|17.00%| |XLE|12.54%| |XLF|9.07%| |XLV|8.79%| |SWVXX|7.92%| |SPY|4.41%| |XLY|4.26%| |XLP|2.33%| |Cash|0.45%| Should I just keep these allocations, contribute regularly pro rata? I'm 40, married, with 2 kids (well 1, 1 coming Thursday). This is all in Schwab.
You can do both. My portfolio is 30% SPY, 25% XLK, 25% XLC, and the other 20% is blue chips found within both ETFs. The way it's structured is basically a more aggressive tech focused SPY hybrid ETF with a tight beta that still outperforms the general market when blue chip ETFs do well. You dont have to do one or the other. Its about how much risk exposure you want to specific sectors. On days that tech doesn't do too well, I lag the overall market but i still capture a lot of the move due to my heavy SPY position. On days where tech does really well, I more than outperform the market since I'm so focused in tech and SPY itself is mostly tech.
I don’t need a run down of state street ETFs Nobody ever talks about XLC because it’s basically just tech
thats because they talked about it being the communications SPDR etf and everyone who isnt a fucking regard knows thats XLC
It’s not. These are thematic ETFs that hold large amounts of certain stocks (the leaders) within an industry. For instance XLY their consumer discretionary ETF holds 24% Amazon, 13% Tesla, and 9% Home Depot. XLC their communications ETF holds 25% Google (split between the two classes) and 22% META. Makes it easy for an investor to buy into a sector rather than just buy into the market.
I just look at charts. But there are a lot of scans you can use. I have a proprietary search I use on TOS, but it still takes time to verify on the charts. Some decent uptrending stocks now that appear to be in a short term downtrend: (not necessarily a 'buy' yet) SB, ABUS, TROX, MSTR, ZETA, IPW. DELL is one I entered yesterday with a put credit spread for July exp. But XLC and XLI are 2 very liquid ETF's in a solid uptrend as well. One way to find uptrends (on TOS platform) is to use your favorite indicator, it could be a moving average or a cloud, or a lower oscillator. Make sure it has been in buy mode for a time length of your choosing. I've been using 30 days, but it's up to you. That should give you a reasonably decent set of uptrending stocks. Lately I've been using a linear regression routine that measures the validity of the trend as well as extrapolated performance. It is extremely taxing on the TOS system and is way too complicated for scans. But it's fairly quick to find uptrending stocks near a 1 std deviation low that have a high r-squared value. I'd take that over falling knives any day. Generally, not always, intraday volume is a tell on when there is strong interest in stock. DELL had that going for it yesterday. It doesn't always work....I bought LFMD as well and am a tad under water.
I see there are options on XLK and XLC but the liquidity for the options until 2026 is not so good
XLK is more tech focused than QQQ. If you strongly believe in AAPL and MSFT, I'd rather hold XLK than QQQ. I'm of the belief that in 10 years, AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT, and AAPL will basically own the world in a cyberpunk dystopia kind of world... so being long big tech has been my MO for the last 10 years and will continue to be so until something changes. XLC is structured the same with, basically 22% GOOG and 22% META. So instead of buying SPY and holding 400 useless companies that lag behind everything, I buy XLK and XLC which make up probably 75% of my holdings, then I have a few individual plays.
I've started doing that. It means I don't need to think about it too much. SPYG, USF, and XLC are some I've started to focus more on.
I had XLC cal which is basically meta and goog sold yesterday for 50%. Looking for more swing entries next week.
Im probably speaking too soon but I might be able to sell my XLC call before FOMC. LFG
XLC which is basically meta, and CTVA.
the sector ETFs generally have low IV. Find one you like, see how the underlying are doing, go calls/puts from there. Like for example XLC. It has a bunch of different "communications sector" stocks, but the top three (META, GOOGL, GOOG) make up 51% of its portfolio. So if I catch it on a day that both of those are looking red in the AM, I will buy a put and hope that I get enough movement to scoop some dollars; vice versa if both are looking green. If one goes one way and the other goes the other way, strangle.
Sorry, not busting your balls but didn’t want to mansplain if your were being facetious. But yes theres an assload of etfs that isolate growth/tech stocks. Largest is QQQ which with SPY for the Nasdaq 100. XLK is the entire tech sector, but note that Meta,Google and Netflix are found the Commincations sector etf XLC. Fidelity Chip Growth, a classic growth mutual fund, is also offered as an ETF, FBCG. If you want get dirty their is also SMH for pure semiconductor .
Depends, some sectors are dealing really well still. [https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker](https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker) You can still the breakdown on YTD, XLC is up 38%, XLY is up 17%, XLE is up 3.19%, XLK is 31.74%. My best guess is the market doesn't want to buy dividended stocks as much right now, because you have high yields. Seems like the market wants to look for companies that are still growing revenues now as a way to beat yields.
If your buying and holding then five years from now you may look back at this time and kick yourself for not going all in. But I might also suggest you look into indexes. They have less volatility. Instead of VZ perhaps XLC which is the communication sector of the S&P. VZ is in there as well as a lot of other things you may have heard of. Sort of smooths the ride out. They have XL\_ ETFs for each sector. Sectors perform differently so have a plan for how to allocate for what you want to achieve. Or just take a little money and buy the reddest one every day. NFA
There's that XLC break of 65
i dont agree the resistance is at 430 i think its 420ish and i believe you could go all the way to like 390 and still not break trend those numbers may be a little off bc i dont do spy i look at the S&P so i mean like 4200-4250 and like 3850-3900 on the S&P and i know SPY doesnt perfectly track the S&P so yeah i dont think youve hit the bottom resistance i'll also add, and im a regard so take it with a grain of salt, but when you look at the s&p logrhythmically you can see its traded in a fairly tight channel for basically 2008 and there the bottom is like 4k but TA will never give you a why. TA isnt going to tell you why its going down or if it will stop going down, it just gives you benchmarks or areas where if it does keep going down you can do some decision making, like ok it broke the 4200 really hard time to maybe get out of some positions etc, or ok it looks like it hit resistance at 4200 maybe i should buy its not telling you why. you would have to look out to more macro shit and fundamentals and all that stuff to get the why of it one of the scary things going on right now is go look at the FAANG stocks, they basically all have broken trend and are chopping sideways do it with sectors then, XLB XLF XLE XTN XLC XLY and youll see many of them doing the exact same thing personally seeing that i wonder if the bull run is over, but until we hit that 4200 marker at minimum im not willing to quit. also im fucking holding regardless bc im not a moron and not in options. if you go look like 1995-2008 the bottom of the crash you were still up 50% over 13 years. 1985 to 1995 up another 50% over 10 years. options are a suckers game. they arent meant to be a way to fucking gamble my dude, they are a hedge for real positions <3
It's the NASDAQ INTERNET INDEX (*Ticker: $QNET Index*) From * *Sector: $XLC* * *Industry: Internet Content & Information (Ticket: $FDN ETF)* Dont confuse with NASDAQ 100 (*Tech Index*) :P
To back-test it I used the SPDR counterparts of those ETFs. Those go back to the late 90s. So I used XLE instead of VDE, XLK instead of VGT, etc. I had to remove VOX though, as XLC doesn't go back that far. Although I did do a 15 year backtest including VOX and it held well. I didn't, I'll check it out.
Assuming you mean like Random House or Newscorp, I couldn't find any. Media: XLC, PBS Social media: SOCL, BUZZ
Take a look at the monthly for XLC AND XLY.
Saw follow through in Q1 out of 22 lows, followed by a cup/handle and breakout in Q2. Target for that move would be SPX 4580ish. XLY/XLK/XLC probably carry enough momentum to get us there, but any substantial move higher or beyond target would probably require participation from the remaining XL’s sector indices. Past three weeks have seen some of the lowest volume YTD. We’ll most likely hit target
I’d go XLC if I was having this conundrum
I initially bought because of their healthy balance sheet and very low P/E (under 18). Now their P/E is near 35, for a tech company it’s not that high, but it’s far from the value bet that I had made originally. But you are right, I am asking the question because I do wanna sell, but since the past few months I have pretty much closed myself from news around the stock market, so I just wanted the input of people who might know more than me about the current sentiment. Thanks for info on XLC, will look into it.
> I can’t find any reasons why the stock is now so high, The same reasons you bought it. META is a great thing to hold now but if you are asking the "should I sell" question under the current circumstances, then you should sell because you obviously want to. After selling, besides anything else like VOO that you get, consider getting some of the XLC index fund. It is 25% META and 25% Google, plus Netflix, Comcast, Disney and other communications stocks. It will give you a chance to still be heavier in META but also protected by other blue chip companies.
Pick VOO and one of the following from your portfolio: XLC, XLV, XLI, and ITB. This way, you will be able to add some bite to your S&P 500 exposure -- the idea behind this approach is called active share, which tells you how much you are differentiated from the benchmark. You could even pick VOOG and XLC (think Meta and Alphabet) if you are looking for an aggressive mix of underlying companies.
[You can fiddle with this](https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth=5&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=0&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&leverageType=0&leverageRatio=0.0&debtAmount=0&debtInterest=0.0&maintenanceMargin=25.0&leveragedBenchmark=false&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=true&showFactors=true&factorModel=3&benchmark=VFINX&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=XLC&allocation1_1=14.32&symbol2=XLV&allocation2_1=14.28&symbol3=XLI&allocation3_1=14.28&symbol4=ITB&allocation4_1=14.28&symbol5=FEZ&allocation5_1=14.28&symbol6=VOOV&allocation6_1=14.28&symbol7=VOOG&allocation7_1=14.28&symbol8=VOO&allocation8_2=100) and see just how close you are to VOO. Your sharpe and sortino ratios are worse than VOO. This does not account for fees, which are worse than VOO. Anyone arguing that the S&P 500 does not provide adequate diversification for the lay investor should be ignored. If you're running a hedge fund then that answer is different, but this is /r/investing, we're not doing that here. Personally, my entire 401k is in the S&P 500 and my IRA is in some very different stuff that I play around with and usually don't clear a lot of money on. It scratches the itch to play with stocks but not in financially detrimental way.
**Real Interes Rates:** T-Bills Yield & Bonds Yield they are under Inflation Rate. This is why Growth Sectors like **XLK**, **XLY** and **XLC** are leading the Markets (*YTD%*) :D When Cash & Equivalents (*Fix Income*) are Unprofitable (*Yields*) investors takes more Risk by Investing in Equities (*Stocks*). Remember, sames happens when we have 0% Interest Rates from 2009 to 2016, we got a Bull Market, with Declines only in 2016 (Hiking Rates starts), 2018 and 2020 (COVID: *Back to 0% for Stimulus the Economy by QE "Brrrr" "Free money"*) https://preview.redd.it/kk5m2uh0e25b1.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=be89a04bc2ffd30192160625541bba98685f475f
Remember, that Dollar (*Cash & Equivalents*) right now, are not Profitable: **Real Yield Rates - Real Interest Rates** (*T-Bills Yield & Bonds Yields under Inflation Rate*) [I give a Explanation and Example of this in other Comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/140nxah/comment/jmxkhfw/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Short Term Yields (*T-Bills*) are so Low. *5% Interest Rates/T-Bills & 4.9% Inflation Rate (CPI)* Long Term Yield (*10Y Yield*) are in Negative Territory. *3.75% Yield & 4.9% Inflation Rate (CPI)* This means, by holding cash you are continue Losing Purchasing Power :D You have to look for something with better Performance, but assuming more Risk, like Equities (*Stocks: Tech Stocks, Growth Stocks*) YTD Performance: 3 Growth Sectors NDX Index +32,62% XLK Tech Sector +32,75% XLY Consumer Discr +24,16% XLC Communication +31,67% https://preview.redd.it/43kdes1xj05b1.jpeg?width=1439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=dce6dba9e5c866766a1ceb4859217a7a491197c0
If you’re going to trade you have to be willing to take short term losses. For instance if you wanted to rotate currently between safety picks (XLP, XLV, XLU) and growth stocks (IWM, XLK, XLC) you’re never going to be able to time the bottom perfectly. Most traders get to afraid to buy into a hole and so they end up chasing tops. If you want to trade you need to have an understanding of why rotations happen, some signs they are getting extreme in a direction, as well as just some basic macro information about different sectors. Also a lot of people get to greedy, myself included. For instance right now I’m sitting on Lilly with a 35% increase from when I bought a few months ago. I realize I should sell and just take profits, but it’s hard when it’s up like that because that’s a lot of house money you’re playing with. The best traders can turn that emotion off.
So you believe in TA yet you're buying calls on a stock that's below the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages? Why not XLK, XLC, or QQQ? Each are near or passed the 3-month highs while having the 50 ma above the 100 and the 100 above the 200 indicating an uptrend. You don't seem very bright.
Imagine being a $META bear and then seeing $XLC break 60 like that 
+12.64% account today mainly off GOOGL and AMZN calls. WOW. Definitely biggest trade of the year. Took profit on all AMZN calls, scaled out 75% GOOGL calls, keeping the remaining runners. The mythical +5.0% GOOGL day. Absolute monster trade. 10-day SMA on $PCALL is still ~0.91 meaning many participants have been and and are continuing to enter short positions. Because of this, there's absolutely no way I would even think about shorting here. In terms of overall market structure, the only thing you should be going long in is tech, specifically, mega-cap tech. MSFT and AAPL are already quite extended at 2.5-3 ATR, will be waiting for a mean reversion pullback to 21-EMA to re-enter. AMZN and GOOGL's daily charts look immaculate but are hella extended as of today. Under the hood, if you look at RSP, which represents the equal weighted S&P, it looks pretty terrible as only the mega-cap tech names are displaying bullish structure. But if mega-cap tech doesn't die then the market won't die. Follow the big money, don't question it. Sector wise, institutional funds are allocating money in XLK, XLC, and XLY so stick to names within those funds. Roughly 60% cash gang, waiting for the next opportunity.
NFLX underperformance vs XLC is notable
That green this morning must’ve been rotation into safety. XLP, XLV, and XLU still green while XLK, XLY, and XLC got clobbered on the way down.
Well several combinations: 1) P/C was 2.5 to 3 the entire last week, 2) sector rotation from XLE, XLF, XLV, and XOM into XLK, XLC, and SMH, 3) critical inflection point. All fuel for short covering. I'm starting to think MR short is negative EV but I'm gonna have to backtest that
How do I know bottom of the barrel traders bought tons of call options causing a gamma squeeze up. Because XLP and XLV were outperforming largely this morning, and then without them losing ground XLK and XLC exploded. Y’all truly are dumb as fuck, and deserve to lose your money gambling for such a small upside when the downside is so great. It’s like betting $1,000 I can hit a golf ball from the tee box into the hole in one shot (bulls), versus can I put a golf ball from 5 feet away into the Grand Canyon (bears).
Rode QQQ, XLC, XLY & casino puts to +25k the last couple of days. Now positioned for a bounce. Utilities primed for a very nice run.
I like Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC) next week. You can use the search feature on [nasdaq.com](https://nasdaq.com) to see the top holdings in each index, but he's a couple charts to get the juices flowing. https://preview.redd.it/j2i91dt2ovea1.png?width=2835&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d0e0068d3270a3a33f12ef93740c154e44c885a8
[+5.9% across all accounts today mostly on XLE and SPX short positions.](https://i.imgur.com/NvW9xR2.jpeg) Another huge day, XLE is the gift that keeps on giving. Gigantic negative divergence and buying exhaustion across all sectors with XLC and SMH looking especially weak. Entered February NVDA and META OTM put debit spreads for a 1:5 R/R. Give me the strength to hold
Basically you need to trade on tickers that align with your comfort and risk perspective. Every trader's perspective and portfolio is different, with different exposures to a history of trading, and knowledge aobut stock markets, and this is why it is difficult to write such a book. Some particular topics, expected value, for example, has, I believe a link at the top of this thread. Generally, you have been exposed to delta thinking via Option Alpha, and their guide is around the one standard deviation value, delta on a short of a credit spread, around 0.30 (30), or 0.25 (25) or less. In general, trade on high volume options, which have low bid ask spreads. Example list: Market Chameleon (toggle the VOLUME item at the uppper right of the page) https://marketchameleon.com/Reports/optionVolumeReport a High capitalization stocks, with high volume. Example screen: FINVIZ https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=cap_largeover,fa_netmargin_pos,geo_usa,sh_avgvol_o2000,sh_float_o1000,sh_price_o15&ft=4 Following trends of sectors and the market. This takes time to have judgement. Example Sectors: https://finviz.com/groups.ashx The XL___ series of exchange traded funds carries leading stocks in a sector. Examples: XLE, XLV, XLC, XLU and so on. Understanding what componants of an Exchange traded fund can be, in proportion. Example with XLU, via ETFDB.com: https://etfdb.com/etf/XLU/#holdings Attend to how one company may behaving differently than the rest of the sector or sector exchange traded fund. Post topics here at the safe haven thread for further activity.
[+$96k today on META, NVDA, QQQ, and XLE put debit spreads.](https://i.imgur.com/BHbpE46.jpeg) Overall indexes are showing signs of buying exhaustion with XLC and XLY sectors looking the worse. Wouldn't recommend going all out short until QQQ breaks 21 EMA at ~$278
XLC is 17% Meta (and presumably a lot more than that before it plummeted). It would be interesting to see how it did without meta.
XLC is the worst performing sector index this year, worse even than technology. It has a similar feel to O&G stocks prior to this year - they sold off even as the market went nuts and it seemed they were dead and buried. Suddenly, they have new life and are blowing away the other sectors. The tide always ebbs and flows.
VOO is barely red in premarket. XLI, XLV, XLC, XLP, and XLF are all very slightly green. Pretty much everything (sector index wise) is +/- 0.2% or less as I type. That’s not a strong predictor. For that matter, futures rarely are.
Interestingly, XLF, XLC, and XLK have been similarly about +0.34% in premarket. Other sectors have been lighltly negative. Mega cap tech (revenue safe havens) and consumer banking push heading into rate hikes? XLV is +0.21%, as well. UNH isn’t leading it, interestingly.
I was slow to learn that there's a whole set of SPDR funds that are pure sector. Morgan Stanley did a little seminar on using them this way and I realized I had already started down that path. Here's the full list: * SPDR Technology Select Sector ETF XLK * SPDR Health Care Select Sector ETF XLV * SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF XLF * SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector ETF XLY * SPDR Communication Services Select Sector ETF XLC * SPDR Industrial Sector ETF XLI * SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF XLP * SPDR Utilities Select Sector ETF XLU * SPDR Real Estate Select Sector ETF XLRE * SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF XLE Using these sector ETFs is a strategy that allows you to re-allocate when you feel like the situation is changing, without touching all of your stocks, and I like that. I can easily rebalance and/or rotate into staples and commodities at times like this, or rotate back toward tech and discretionary when the economy is booming. Like doing the total market index but with dials you can turn to suit your view of the macro environment. Too fussy for some, but I like it. I personally do the same thing with sub-sectors like EV tech, semiconductors, green energy, and other areas that may dominate in future.
A massive difference to keep in mind: as far as I know, XLK does not hold Google/Alphabet and Meta – which are held in XLC instead.
XLC & XLK: consolidate or disintegrate today.
Added additional GOOGL calls. Some dumb analyst downgraded GOOGL LMFAO. Successful retest of daily 21 EMA and 50 SMA. If they're gonna give me another entry point then I'll gladly take advantage of the opportunity. Very similar to QQQ's and NVDA's retest on 7/18. This is a longer term position trade instead of a swing trade. XLC and SMH are leading sectors, so play names with relative strength. Now we just sit and wait
Lmfaoooooooo NFLX implied move was +/- 15.5%. All single leg options gonna get obliterated from IV crush. Theta gang wins yet again. It's going to indirectly pump everything in XLC so it will also benefit META and GOOGL. Any stubborn shorts will probably be capitulating tomorrow. GOOGL GANG GANG GANG
Lmao if you're holding options in GOOGL, META or anything in XLC, you're indirectly playing NFLX earnings. Let's fucking go
Scaling into ITM NVDA 175/165 put credit spreads @ 4.97 average. DD is 1) positive divergence on both daily and weekly chart, 2) capitulation volume, 3) higher low, 4) sector strength, and 5) possible quarterly institutional rebalance into semiconductors. Sector wise, XLC and SMH look really good. [Here's the trade setup for this play for a solid 1:4 R/R, if it works its going to be an explosive move, if not then a minimal loss.](https://i.imgur.com/ZEYwb11.png) I don't see how the overall market can make lower lows with the P/C ratio so inflated. Typically, the markets trade flat or drift higher so becoming a theta sucking vampire is probably the way to go.
Yea, in recent days/weeks, I’ve usually seen MTCH at least have some correlation to XLC or META (as the leader for XLC) when there are significant moves. MTCH had an abnormally hard sell off in the AM — I looked but no catalyst that I could find. Not the first time I’ve see “fuckery” with this stock, I just thought this one was a bit more visible than most.
For the June 17th options expiration, $3.2 trillion in notional exposure might be a record. $1.7 trillion of that is in the SPX AM options. Look for some crazy swings. Sector wise, XLC is showing relative strength. VIX bleeding out = slow drift upwards?
Open short covering. SPY ‘leaders’ weak af. Just like yesterday. XLC & XLK Need go get involved for more 📈 That being said my 0dte SPX 3955p printed nice. Gotta be quick, though.
Scaled into full size GOOGL and NVDA put credit spreads. XLC + SMH showing signs of 1) positive divergence, 2) capitulation volume, and 3) higher low. Also VIX and TNX showing buying exhaustion which is beneficial for equities. $TICKS also showing signs of buyers stepping in. Don't buy calls, instead sell premium. Now we wait.
I may be proven wrong very shortly, but in the last couple days, we've seen all sectors get hit. Inflation proof or not. I believe that there was a "dip" in the inflation trade, and XLK, XLY, XLC were part of their normal continuing downtrend. Going to find out in a couple hours. Pretty exciting, isn't it?
[+$15k on baby /ES long position, still holding. Go /ES go MMs probably sold so many $400 SPY and $300 QQQ puts, they are going to most likely going to keep the price at least flat.](https://imgur.com/a/uL7Xlt4) Market is showing signs of bullishness as XLC and SMH have signals of capitulation and positive divergence. Will most likely start scaling into a large NVDA and GOOGL PCS position tomorrow. Also aggressively buying TQQQ, AAPL, and GOOGL shares. [Currently +54% combined accounts year to date since January through this volatility. Shifting to some bullish PCS positions for the next few days](https://imgur.com/a/Arj6h95)
Adding full size 6/17 FB 200/210 CCS @ 5.25, anticipating a large flush. XLC's bounce failed to materialize with a lot of trapped longs, rejected hard at 21 EMA, and a lot of meat left on the bone. TNX just keeps going on a expedition voyage to Jupiter which means disaster for equities.
If you want to long TWTR but are worried about the market you can short XLC on top of it