Reddit Posts
Market Recap - 5/16/23 - schizophrenic trade continues
Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks shows banking crisis isnt over
WAL (Western Alliance Bank) reported earnings today. Up 15% AH
First Republic stock up 24% as FR deal for Silicon Valley Bank lifts banks - ONE SICK BANK BOUGHT ANOTHER SICK BANK. FDIC easy to clean both
Market Recap | Stocks Edge Higher as Pressure on Banks Continues
What bank is next, $SBNY, $FRC, $ZION or $TFC?
Just want to thank a Great Mod in the $GME --- Warden (/u/WardenElite2)... Thanks for Noticing this Y-Gen Wrinkle-Brain Ape DD.! 👊🦍
Mentions
Slip in ZION real quick before earnings
ZION your little comeback is greatly appreciated
ZION be good to me today I know you will
Zion bank is holding massive long duration bonds on balance sheet. Value of those bonds have tanked with rising yields. I think Zion is the next Silicon. SHORT ZION
XLRE / VNQ underperforming vs the market recovery, housing market showing cracks XLF is a different story. not as confident about this anymore as I'm afraid whatever exposure could be covered by the meme-market pumps. IMO if history remains true in the future SOMEBODY has to default and that's why I'm going short on the basket itself, not just individual banks, but I have them too (OWL, ZION, APO, ARES, JPM, BAC, WFC) just in smaller portions and again deep OTM far expiry All in I will lose about $6,000 by 2027 if we don't see some sort of recession by then, but I think the majority of WSB/ Americans are ignoring the warning signs for a **global** recession and are short sighted by the value of american tech / drunk off the bull party
my gut told me to buy a ZION put for funsies but I went with a CALX put instead 
Ha! Well, I did make a little coin on those puts last year, but steering clear of that one now. Actually looks like they’ve MAYBE pulled it off, enough to merge/get acquired reasonably anyway. OZK, FNB, RF, and KEY look shaky, options chains are nearly illiquid, though. TFC, ZION, BOKF, possibly. KRE has too many quality names that SKRE is tough play. Other than just steering clear, haven’t come up with a solid short, but feel like I should have by now, lol.
Puts on ZION No way they hit that top line
Have a look at AX and even ZION, there are a few banks that are loaded with cre risk, and analysts are just starting to probe into it more now. I agree that OZK is going to see a reckoning as this gets more attention, but I doubt they go fully under. Still, they could all be substantially lower than their current market values within 2 years.
Wendy's Dumpster Oracle Dumpster told me to bend a spoon with my mind. I did it. Now, she says, bend the market at 1:30pm to bring BULLS to ZION. \*Fu\*\* is this b\*\*\*\*\* talking about\*
C, JPM, BAC, PNC, FITB, ZION calls. Banks about to have a good fucking two weeks.
ZION calls is better
If that's what u believe is really happening, all I can say u are seriously about to get fcked.  I am not gonna teach u economics but do look up how regional banks were doing last night. Ticker: MS, WAL, ZION, FITB,C, CMA, BAC and so on. Tell me how all the banks droping 2%-6%isnt indicative of stressful conditions.
Did you get back in to KRE? Big down move today. I modified your approach and bought ZION puts. Starting to print today
I took your approach and modified it for more risk/reward. Bought ZION 60 day just out of the money puts yesterday. Up today. I just feel they got kicked out of the S&P 500…not a good thing, people will be selling their positions because of that fact alone. Any inflation or higher rate talk will also cause selling
Because of the Truth in Lending Act, no one knows what kind of exposure to CRE regional banks really have... the rule here is we don't know what we don't know, and we can only speculate. It takes a canary in a coal mine like NYCB to set of a contagion... Having said that, I have puts on VLY and ZION at the 6/21 expiry
Just flipped from bull to bear. Using this time to sell tech and load long dated bank puts. NYCB was the canary in the coal mine. KRE has been relentless so I’m looking at individuals. ZION has my attention, especially with getting booted from SPY
Will WAL be the next one? Or ZION?
Jump into bank puts guys. WAL ZION etc. NYCB is going to die.
If you're talking about NYCB puts specifically then FDIC taking over is max gain = the best outcome. The stock will open trading OTC after a few weeks of being halted. Then you just buy the shares for close to nothing and exercise your options. After all you can still trade the failed banks from last year for a few pennies and you can see what happened with stock in the chart. The tricky part would be getting caught with your expiration date while it's still halted. Then you'd need enough margin to exercise the puts into a short. Margin requirements could be based on the last traded price and could make the whole thing very pricey. Best to not get into such a situation and buy puts at least 2 months out. But since IV is shit on NYCB specifically I'd just go short any other regional bank. One from my list in the post or one of the regional banks that is very sensitive to a new bank panic like WAL, ZION etc.
U guys think the 2 stocks that got delisted ZION and WHR are good for puts ? They are fairly cheap
Close the stupidiest longs for ZION, getting finally tf out of sp500
Nah, it's .01 SMCI and DECK are replacing WHR and ZION which only make up 0.013647 and 0.013637 of SPY respectively. That's straight from the holdings spreadsheet from SSGA's website.
>Edit: In all seriousness, they are removing 10B in market cap, and adding 83B. WHR is below its 200day, WHR & ZION are down for the month & year. SMCI & DECK are above 20/50/200 day averages, up for the week/month/quarter/half/year... so:33495: ELI5?
Made good money last year buying ZION shares when insider execs bought hundreds of thousands of shares, same is happening for NYCB now.
So do we have a list of banks in trouble? I keep hearing ZION is one of them, which makes me laugh. They handle the tithing money (Mormons are required to give the church 10% of earnings) for the $250B LDS church. No way in hell the Mormons let anything interrupt the billions they receive every year in online tithing donations from around the world. They'll go all Beneficial Life if there is even a hint of instability.
>Invest in what you know! And what exactly do you know? seriously ask yourself that. I doubt you know anything about the banking sector or any sector. There were lots of other banks that would have made up for your loss in FRC if you were smart enough to spread your risk. PACW went to 3 then back to 10. WAL from 8 to 65+. ZION from 22 to 45. MCB from 25 to 55. CUBI from 15 to 60, and more others. Nobody knows anything. Not even the ratings agencies. All these analysts and experts only know how to look backwards and not forwards.
its basement got flooded. BIO, ZION, HAS, WHR, DVA, VFC, RL, MHK, FOX, and NWS all drowned. they need money for the funeral
Only regret during the regional bank crisis was not buying way more. CRE default risks? L.O.L. Besides office, everything else was doing well. INBK, regional bank with 0 office exposure, growing deposits, heavy insider buys since high teens, and buybacks the entire year. Still 0.7 P/B. Went in with 1000 shares at low $10s only because I had no more money after buying "safer" regional banks like TFC and ZION. I'll sell when it gets 50% higher after Fed starts cutting.
It's pretty easy. Gauge the stock price against their peers, look at it's performance over the past 5 years. Have they rebounded from Covid? Will they rebound? Consider how the company projects to perform over the next 10 to 20 years. Lastly run their dividend against their share price. There are a lot of companies undervalued right now, and their dividend to share price reflects it. This can be done rather quickly. It took me 2 minutes to jump into ZION last March, but then, I had 'inside info' that the experts seem determined to ignore.
What made you pick ZION over other banks?
I’m heavy in ZION. Key is to find the right bank
Using ZION as an example since is happening soon. "The company announced on Friday that it would pay shareholders a quarterly dividend of 41 cents per share. *On Wednesday, Zions Bancorp will go ex-dividend, meaning the stock will trade lower to reflect that payout. In other words, the stock will likely open 41 cents lower than it would have opened on any other day.* In order to be eligible to receive a company's dividend, shareholders must own the stock prior to the ex-dividend date—in this case, Wednesday." So a quick flip will result in a loss of the dividend on the share price.
I've still got some ZION I picked up when it was under $30
ZION and WAL approaching -4% weekly ZION and WAL puts approaching +200% 👌
regional banks in free fall (WAL ZION etc)
regional banks in free fall (WAL ZION etc)
My ZION gave me good growth and dividends
Does Moody's really think that "ZION" bank is going to fail... hahah
Picked up 200 ZION for about $30. I'm thinking it still has plenty of room to grow, as the large drawdown was largely caused by the regional bank issues and its not really involved in that. Still about 25% below it's March price, so I'm in no real rush
Remember that guy that dropped 9m on WAL and ZION calls and shares during the crisis a few months ago?? Wait that was me! Only I’m a paper handed bitch and sold at 35 and 30.
ZION calls all the way baby, zion makes me happy
Another regional bank: $ZION Earnings: \- Net earnings of $166 million, or $1.11 per diluted common share \- $790 million adjusted taxable-equivalent revenue, compared to $850 million Harris H. Simmons, Chairman and CEO of Zions Bancorporation, commented, “Second quarter operating results reflect a solid ($2 billion, or 3.2%) rebound in customer deposits over the past three months, but also a higher cost of funds, which reduced net interest income to levels comparable with those of a year ago. While noninterest-bearing deposits decreased $2.3 billion during the quarter and were displaced by interest-bearing deposits, the interest savings generated from our demand deposits increased by approximately 28% over the past three months.” Mr. Simmons continued, “Customer-related noninterest income increased 5% over the prior year quarter, while operating expenses increased 9%—approximately half of which was due to severance and higher FDIC insurance costs. Credit quality remained strong, with continued reductions in nonperforming and classified loans, and annualized net charge-offs of a modest 0.09% of total loans. We’re pleased to see the operating environment stabilizing, and we expect to see continued improvement in the months ahead.”
Just Brutal, UAL up, ZION up, TSLA up, NFLX back to prices not seen since yesterday its a real bloodbath out there. Makes me glad to be in money market snuggling with 1.25% a quarter in dividends
Interesting concept holding a core portfolio surrounding an index fund. ZION and HUN are within SCHD. I added them during pullbacks. Regional banking concerns and skyrocketing Natural Gas due to the war in Ukraine created a buying opportunity. I see them as long value plays. I’m finding it takes an incredible amount of time to keep track of individual stocks or keep a pulse on a particular sector of the market. I feel confident on timing my entry but exiting is challenging. I am comfortable pruning but am not sure how long to let a runner run. As to your question about my cash position. The lion share of my trading account came from a real estate sale. I live in a LCOL area and sold a rental. To be real the reasoning behind holding more than 80% in cash I just don’t want to squander it. I’m getting the same monthly amount from the ~5% return as I was from renting. And I’m not so confident I can consistently perform better than that yet. So I’m waiting for a good deal to jump in. Hell if I know whether it’s bull or bear season. Thanks for the response
!banbet ZION 30 in 3D
Buy ZION before it turns green today
In situations similar I’ve sold 75% of my position and let 25% ride. Recently did this with ZION. I’ve laddered limit sell orders with the remaining 25%. From my research the company’s fundamentals indicate that the stock price will return to prior levels but I can’t determine a time horizon on when that might be. So I free up 75% of the capitol for a new trade opportunity.
I'll throw you a nugget. ZION is fine. WAL and PACW are not. Here's a bonus nobody knows about. BMO is also not ok. Never forget Canada exists.
Short every dog shit regional bank CEOs and insiders sell their shares conveniently before the stocks crash Bc their balance sheets look like somebody took a shit on a piece of paper Then Yellen’s goofy ass comes in and offers unlimited fucking cash to any bank that “needs” it And bank executives buy back in along w institutions and boom. 50% pop in 2 weeks And blaming short sellers. Eat a bag of dicks. Buy puts on every regional bank. The balance sheets are still dog shit.. and with interest rate hikes demand for credit isn’t the same as before These regional banks are dogshit. Buy puts let’s make our own justice. SEC not gonna do a damn thing about insider trading and blame short sellers.. please  KRE 0 eoy ZION 0 eoy WAL 0 eoy
It didn’t drop mf even 1% after ex div. Go choke on a bag of dicks. I shoulda bought before and used this ZION shit stock that it is
A stock is supposed to drop after its ex div by the amount of the div.. to prevent people from taking advantage of buying before ex and selling the day after. ZION didn’t dip it finished next day green
ZION 6% dividend.. supposed to -6% after ex div and it finished the day green So you could of collected that div.. w no drop after the ex div just unreal And it goes -6% today ✅ FUCKING BULLLLLSHIT ALL INSTITUTIONS TIMED THE BOTTOM $20 -> $30 50% gain in 3 weeks in April SEC gives 0 fucks
Take it in the ass like a man like the rest of us. Down 3k on ZION. Didn’t sell. Down 4K now
My ZION tendies got violated by these demented bers
Not gonna paper hand Portnoy my ZION calls sorry bers
debt ceiling bullshit on a stick fukin up my ZION tendies 
If anyone needs me I’ll be in ZION w a bunch of naked models drinking slurpees
Holy fuck ZION exploding 
The CEO of ZION bank bought $800K worth of shares last week. Stock is up 20% 3 days later Now that’s how you insider trade. Take lessons fellas
ZION exploding into the stratosphere Regional banks rising from the ashes
Made the mistake of wait and see when ZION went to $19 with a 3.8 forward P/E. Ended up buying most of the position at 24, now it's 28. Still lots of cheap names out there, including ZION and I'll likely keep buying every time KRE goes down more than 2%.
I finally found the HTM section of FRC's 10K last night (the first PDF I had wasn't text searchable). It puts them at about 35% losses in Q1 assuming the HTM amount and loss didn't change. It's not great but CMA / ZION / TFC / KEY / PACW are all in the same region and aren't dead yet. It's really the uninsured depositor % and liquidity coverage for those depositors that matters, and how easily scared out they are. The AOCI to CET1 ratio (or AOCI to CET1 minus AOCI used in some places) identifies some weakness but not the main risk. I need to look more closely into CMA / ZION. Zion has close ties to the (extremely wealthy) Mormon church so I don't see them failing despite the high AOCI loss ratio and 55% uninsured - although that doesn't mean the share price won't go down. I think preferred shares are a reasonable choice. I looked at PACW common's upside in another post and by my estimate it's only around $8 unless a huge amount of depositors come back. The common dividend will probably take a long time to restore. I have a mix of WAL / PACW preferred, common, and options (CSP / CC).
Nice post. I looked at their balance sheets as well, but only some banks. [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/13if51m/frb\_vs\_pacw\_vs\_zion\_vs\_wal/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/13if51m/frb_vs_pacw_vs_zion_vs_wal/) Also, ZION has uninsured deposits of 55%. And also has a lot of unrealized losses? That's a bit sus. I am also long on PACW and WAL but preferred shares. I am honestly not sure if I should switch over to common shares.
This week's biggest financial gainers: $UPST +40.6%, $WAL +25%, $ZION +19.3%, $COF +13.4%
To be serious, there are definitely legitimate strategies to using options trading. An example, I recently sold (too early) some $25 calls on ZION, because regional banks are/were oversold. I made 100% on the options, but today they're up 300% further. There's also more advanced strategies like strangles and straddles, if you happen to be very convinced you know what the share price is going to do. Personally, I don't get too fancy with it.
Thinking of opening positions in NU and ZION, thoughts? They both have had a runup but the prices still look attractive from a long term perspective.
Will the regional bank "crisis" turn out to be a nothingburger? WAL just reported increasing deposits, meanwhile all of the regionals are trading like they are at imminent risk of failure, even the super-regionals like ZION, KEY, CMA and TFC, which despite being classed as "regionals" might actually benefit from outflows from even smaller banks. Someone asked a couple days ago why there weren't more bank failures like 2008, well what do you think that tells you? Months after SVB, there's very little stress in the system, besides literally 1 bank, PACW, which itself isn't even at imminent risk of failure because it has enough liquidity. In a year when the interest rate curve will actually benefit banks, all these smaller regionals will likely turn out to be screaming buys at this point.
So I have a small position in WAL approx 700 shares. I have a much bigger position on PNC, for several reasons. First, PNC is a very conservative bank, almost to a fault. While they have a large percentage of uninsured deposits, they gained deposits since March because they are closer to a super regional than just a regional and thus viewed by most as safe (and they are). Second, they have ample liquidity to make an acquisition, and they do intend to make one since they are the only rival bid to JPM for FRC. The fact that Yellen is signaling to regulators to fast track regional consolidation also tells me that road is paved for PNC to make an acquisition. The real question is who. I've thought about WAL and Apollo dividing up PACW on the basis that Apollo's Atlas SP provided a $1.4b lifeline to PACW in March, of which PACW suggested to have paid back approx $1b. It is trying to sell off some assets to pay back the remainder. WAL has some regional overlap with PACW but not terribly so, and based on its deposit gains along with cash on hand, it can make an acquisition (though I imagine stock swap might also be involved). Apollo, for its part, was one of the PE bidders for SVB and wants to funnel some loans to sell to its insurance clients, who don't have the deposit flight problem that banks do and thus can better withstand long dated HFI loans that are currently underwater. The lynchpin there is that Ken Vecchione, WAL's current CEO, used to be Apollo's CFO and that WAL had already retained Sullivan & Cromwell, the law firm that has advised on many prominent M&A deals. Finally, I just opened a small position on ZION this morning. Beta is reasonable, day of record, no red flags on books.
Correlation is not causation. All regionals borrowed from FHLB (see borrowings) to boost liquidity in March. Interest rate was competitive at around 4-5%, basically the same as it would've taken for them to pay for high yield deposits only at a much slower pace. Agreed that long dated loans. However, this is where folks need to look at variable vs fixed loans. WAL and ZION both have more than half of their loans at adjustable rates rather than fixed. In ZION's case, all fixed rate residential loans are sold to federal agencies so they only keep adjustable rates on books. What I don't quite understand, though, is that despite ZION having a higher proportion of adjustable rate loans, WAL actually has higher yield. I briefly considered that perhaps WAL's loans are riskier, but that doesn't seem to be the case either, considering that, for instance, WAL requires 55% loan to value ratio when originating CRE loans. The biggest factor I can see is that ZION holds a lot of agency guaranteed MBS, which also accounts for most of their fair value write downs. I imagine ZION effectively traded their fixed rate residential mortgages for these long dated securities, since these are considered as safe as treasuries but offer superior return until the recent rapid rate hike cycle.
$ZION because we’ve all seen the matrix and its only surviving sanctuary.
I've already considered what you said, and all I can say is I don't know. I would say its on a bank to bank basis. Have to look at balance sheets to see if it looks decent or not. That being said, I'm invested in preferred shares so theres a bit more margin of safety there. I agree that common shares are difficult to value at this point, but could have insane growth potential. ZION in particular doesn't feel like there is a lot of upside to it but I could be wrong. Both common and preferred are already trading at reasonable levels. I went in on WAL and PACW because of the irrational fear surrounding it. Those banks aren't worse off, but are trading at a deeper discount than other regional banks. I think I'm happy with my position even if banks have shit earnings for a while, as long as they don't go under.
Yeah it's not as good. I think the reason they don't see a greater need for higher coverage is because of the nature of their portfolio. AFAIK, ZION is the only bank in this group that sells its fixed rate residential loans to federal agencies rather than HFI. Its commercial loans were 85% variable rate but during Q1 allowed 25% of them to be converted to fixed, presumably at a higher rate. I estimate their commercial loans breakdown as approximately 35% fixed and 65% variable. Combining both residential and commercial, ZION is overwhelmingly holding variable rate loans. In other words, they are pretty set against interest rate risk. I hold no position in ZION, though I might buy some today for a quick dividend (tomorrow is ex div).
okay, so ZION has about 100% coverage. Still not great to have 55% uninsured deposits, but at least they have coverage.
FWIW, regarding ZION's liquidity coverage, uninsured deposits on 10-Q was $31.4b. Its immediately available liquidity is $32.3b without the need of selling any assets.
I hear you. I had an eye on PACW, ZION, UBS and a bunch of other liquidity/capital risk red-flagged banks at the very beginning of May. I had this whole watchlist of bank stocks that had sold off hard and looked poised to crash harder the Monday after FRC seizure was announced. I considered shorting a bunch of them, figuring the fear would cause some damage. I decided not to, because I didn't want the risk and I was basing the logic on other people's DD as far as the actual weakness of the banks in my list, so I was aware it was very possible I could be wrong. Turned out that every bank on my list dropped hugely that Monday, but when I saw PACW halted on my broker it was just confirmation for me that I made the right call. Playing bank failures is just so risky. Not for me. And as I said, r/investing is focused on investing, not shorting. If your question was more focused and directed on how to evaluate a balance sheet you might get a more helpful piece of the answer here. As far as learning about evaluating bank weaknesses, I'd recommend r/finance and doing some basic reading/podcast listening on balance sheets, especially bank balance sheets. Rational Reminder, Goldman Sachs Exchanges, are podcasts I've recently found good info about this (pretty much any financial podcast has obviously been doing deep dives on this since SVB). Investopedia is always a good place to get started and there's plenty of great content on Youtube too. I'll actually link directly to a GS Exchanges episode because you asked specifically about the influence of the Fed's rate hikes, and I found one guest speaker on this episode to be especially enlightening about how influential the rates hikes were on SVB. [Link](https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/podcasts/episodes/03-15-2023-ramsden-karoui.html) If you're specifically interested in banks right now, I'd recommend learning specifically how banks function too, as they are very different from other businesses you might evaluate when you're doing investment research. Banks are the only entities other than the Fed that can print money. Given that are these special entities that can literally create money by issuing debt, the requirements for operating with appropriate risk are different from individuals or other types of business. Rational Reminder did a good breakdown recently of what banks are and how they function, but I don't have the link currently Again, check out Investopedia, Wikipedia, find some reliable experts and approachable speakers on the topic and go from there.
[Bank risk is divided into 9 categories.](https://www.evalueserve.com/blog/9-types-of-risks-in-banking/) The first 3 are probably the only ones you even have a chance of evaluating as a person with no knowledge of banking looking at public information from the outside. Liquidity risk can be judged as someone else mentioned here, comparing issued debt horizons to collateral maturities. Good luck calculating all that, you might want to start pursuing a finance degree if you're actually that interested in this. Best r/r instrument if you want to bet on the current situation is broad market index ETF shares. Or you can just hope that Michael Burry is right and follow his cryptic tweets about bank failures. Note that you're pretty behind the game now, a lot of bank fear showed up in stocks for banks like PACW and ZION and 20 other banks a couple weeks ago. Trying to bet against dying banks is pretty awful r/r no matter how you do it. Source: just take a look at all the guys dealing with FRC related assets that have halted out, gone OTC, etc. It's literally not worth it unless you were already better at judging bank risk than the bank managers but with less information. Two months ago. Do yourself a favor and just don't. r/investing is where you come to ask whether FXAIX or VOO is best to DCA your Pizza Hut paychecks, it's not WSB.
I'm holding some cheap calls on ZION, personally. Could blow up in my face, but again... real cheap.
Now is likely a great time to buy banks and I have done so. There are numerous regional banks who have gotten crushed but have very strong balance sheets and a lot of significant insider buying, which tells you everything. WAL and ZION are two such examples. So are CMA and CFB. You can buy these companies for like half of book value and maybe 2-4 times earnings and often with a 7-9% dividend. It’s a great time to buy if you don’t care what happens next week or next month. Just look to the banks with insider buying to know which ones are strong.
OK SPY may be flat but commercial real estate amd regional banks are down. They are the canaries in the coal mine. ZION CMA BXP VNO puts cashing...
I’m going in on ZION calls
IDK why the market keeps shitting on ZION. (Zions bank) If you live in Utah, you know how predominant the Mormon church is. While the LDS church no longer owns Zions bank, all the tithing donations they receive every Sunday in the thousands of LDS chapels throughout the state get deposited into Zions bank. (LDS faithful are counseled to give 10% of their income to the church) Add in the fact that all online tithing donations also go through Zions bank, the last thing Zions has is liquidity problems. They are receiving tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars of cold hard cash every week. And that's not counting the online deposits. And if Zion ever had serious problems, I am very certain the LDS church (valuation: $250B) would step in to ensure their cash flow is uninterrupted.