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This chart hasn’t price in what’s happening right now : Larry Fink, MSTR, BSR, nationwide adoption, banks custody, etc. This chart doesn’t mean shit
cause i actually ask some og people bro... Even they get liquidated during those dip. Around January to February i think. I cant really argue with them cause legit give me info like the BSR and shit.. I was call noobs and stupid to even think about selling. I am not mad mad.. I just wish there were unbiased. Cause i found guy like Ben Cohen who did say it looks bearish during those "Trump gonna pumps our bag" I mean even in this subreddit. If people talk about bearish signal with facts and data. The will get downvoted.
You realise it'd be a terrible thing for price discovery if any singular entity owned such a massive portion of the supply, right? The Bitcoin network doesn't care, but anyone who'd invest in it would be rightfully scared of price manipulation. What happens if the US government owns 5% of the available supply (which is actually way more if you account for lost coins) and they decide to disband the BSR? The sell pressure would be enormous. And you want them to own MORE? Stop thinking in terms of short-term price action. In fact, stop thinking about price action all together. And most importantly, gagging for the US government to buy up so much Bitcoin is somewhat antithetical to the ethos of the Bitcoin network.
Last time this happened it was before the BSR and the guy barely made 6 mil on a 200 mil 50x long so don't be too panicked.
The USA just signed off on a BSR. Stack sats and chill, more time to accumulate is good
It's all confiscated from mostly criminal activity so far. The BSR would be probably increased by moving out of other assets, such as gold. It wouldn't cast tax payers anything. 25% is crazy though.
Is everyone here hypnotized or something? Did the BSR EO not specifically state that the Treasury and Commerce departments *shall* find ways to acquire more bitcoin? Is the US government acquiring bitcoin *not* bullish from a geopolitical game theory perspective? Am I taking crazy pills?
I agree with pretty much all of this. It still doesn't negate the effect that US domestic fed policy will have on bitcoin when priced in USD. I also think you're missing a key piece in your analysis of loss of trust in US leadership: we're going to need a new neutral reserve asset. The weaponization of Treasuries against Russia set a precedent that can't be undone. Gold historically played this role, but failed due to its difficulty/cost of settlement in the age of instantaneous information transfer. Its physicality is inherently a drawback. Some countries will likely try to return to a gold standard, but I suspect some will move to using bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset, including the US, which remains the largest economy in the world. This suspicion is based on the fact that the BSR executive order specifically states that the Treasury and Commerce departments *shall* find budget neutral ways of obtaining more bitcoin, and several senators and the head of the commerce department have floated the idea of selling gold to buy bitcoin. It makes sense geopolitically since several rival countries have been stocking up on gold preferentially over Treasuries for over a decade, and weakening gold relative to bitcoin would provide a strategic advantage if we move towards bitcoin as a reserve asset. I'm shocked that we're already at a point where this is even conceivable, but if you look at the makeup of who will be making these decisions and their past public statements regarding bitcoin, it's a likely enough outcome that I feel safer holding bitcoin than any other asset currently.
You need to learn to read Acts and legalize. There are two messages in that paragraph. One, the BSR and two, the digital asset stockpile. The BSR can obtain more BTC. It just can’t be with tax payer money. However the govt cannot add to the digital asset stockpile (all the other alts they have in their possession seized) unless it comes from future seized assets.
Still not a fan of growing the BSR through civil forfeiture. This is when a cop or TSA agent stops you, spots cash or high-value assets, doesn’t charge you with a crime, and you have little to no way of getting your stuff back. Now, it’s just another reason for them to “discover” crypto on you during a routine stop—like for a busted taillight or a secondary search at the airport and they see you have the Coinbase wallet app on your phone.
I noticed another comment. "why does the BSR have wrapped BTC?".
Bitcoin will do its thing with or without a BSR. It’s only moon boys who panic sell just because Trump’s not going to print millions of dollars to buy BTC.
And if they ever acquire more, it would be OTC. So no price action. Definitely the retail or common people are the losers. Wouldn't it be something to dump it all on the BSR 😂
This is great news. Especially they separated the BSR away from the shitpile. That’s how it should be!
Not really. Read David Sachs’ tweet. BSR and Digital Asset Stockpile (shitcoins) are two separate things. There won’t be additional buys on the shitpile, but there will be more “budget neutral” way of buying additional bitcoin in BSR. This is literally the best outcome! Bitcoin buy but keep the shitcoins away.
I would not trust many of the comments here. I read Sacks tweets about the BSR and OP pretty much summed it up.
I think it’ll settle around here in the next bear market, but we still have upside because BSR isn’t the only reason people invest in Bitcoin. There’s more to it as a viable and interesting asset.
Not sure how that would work with a reserve. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding is that bitcoin in the BSR won’t be like a ‘chequing/savings account for the government’ — more like a ‘break in case of emergency’ stash in the blockchain. Then again I’m not too familiar with how the gold reserve currently functions for the government. You’ve given me something to look up haha
Not sure if this market is more regarded than Wall St. or what? Bro created a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve as well as a separate shitpile, just like he said he would. It's up to Congress to find the funding to add more bitcoin to the BSR if they want to. That's just the law.
I think the fact that the US even has a BSR is surreal to me. It wasn't long ago that BTC was basically criminal money and destroying the planet etc. etc.
That maybe true, I guess it could depend on which other countries follow suit with a BSR.
Manipulation. Try to picture: you invest in Bitcoin and crypto. You pumped when he was elected. Pumped when he was inaugurated. Been excited and anxious for a BSR. He finally announces it so, of course, you decide to dump everything, not just BTC but everything. Does that sound like rational behavior or realistic retail moves?
Trump.. Signed an executive order for a BSR, as in, America now has a SBR, and it dumps? What kind of fuckery is this?
I agree that what Michael Saylor built is a massive house of cards that could collapse at any moment. But Strategy and Bitcoin are two very different things. People who are invested in MSTR are risking a lot, and the moment that Saylor looses it, the whole thing will go down. But Bitcoin itself has nothing to do with Saylor. Countries can build Bitcoin strategic reserves without him. Dorsey, Bukele, Kaiser, Lummis and so many others championed the idea of a BSR independently from Saylor, and others will in the future. If MSTR ever collapses, we might see a 40% dip, but all the BSR managers need to do is to hodl and they'll recoup their investment within less than 4 years.
I'm for a BSR, but getting things "executed" this week sounds illogical. An act of Congress is almost certainly required, and while I'd love to see them do it, it's not a slam dunk. So, I have no idea what the Commerce Secretary is talking about here.
BSR announcement this Friday. Pack ya bags.
Probably not. Nothing that will impact the price materially. Most of this administrative efforts are not really doing anything to solidify BSR
All states are slowly bailing out on bitcoin reserves, and the Trump BSR was just election talk.
If the US government intends to create a BSR, they won't tell you about it and have the rest of the world pump the price. I feel its going to be one of those things they will suddenly reveal.
This seems quiet irrealistic. Europe countries follow ECB monetary policy. I do not believe any EU country are allowed to build a BSR at will. Lizzards from Brussels wouldnt make it possible for that country
As long as you're happy with everything else beside a hypothetical BSR bro
As a non-american, I also don't really buy into the narrative that the current POTUS cares about bitcoin. Maybe his executives more than he does, but I recall Milei making the same talks and not taking action. I think the point of this post was exactly this: Most likely It was all but an empty promise just to get your vote. And the issue is that your vote isn't only for a BSR, but for everything else that's currently going on, including treatening to annex Canada, Panama, Greenland and who knows what else. Either way, I also don't care the US think, if I could vote I wouldn't care about something that's inevitable anyway.
Yeah... I'm really happy to see the States decriminalize it all the same. Seeing nearly half the Union embrace the possibility of a BSR makes me all warm and tingly.
Tbh, it totally makes sense Trump is dumping the market. I mean, how dumb would he have to be to dive head first into a BSR during BTC aths. Also, the FED does not seem to be playing along, so I expect a big dump and more stress to force the FED’s hand into QE. In the short term, I’m waiting for a small pump to close the few long positions I have left. Mid term, I’m holding on my bags tight expecting max pain and hopefully see alt-season at the end of the tunnel.
Wow this is huge! I didn't know about this. BSR, here it comes!
More talking about the hype around BSR than the nuts and bolts
I didnt, but this is what is being touted as the answer to the debt crisis and a big reason for BSR
Cynthia Lummis is becoming my favorite senator I don't know about her other policies but she's good on Bitcoin she's pushing hard for the BSR!
“BSR” “Small drawback” “Alt season” More like they’re taking profits! Crypto is a fraudulent flow of wealth from retail to institutional investors and tradefi bros its only going down. If you’re a trader down is the call DYOR
1. USA buys Bitcoin!! 2. Breaking: Supreme Court overturns Trump's BSR executive order! Who knows, its gonna get crazy
The 4 year cycle is playing out exactly as per previous cycles. There's been some short lived deviations but the macro time-based pattern is merely repeating yet again. Also, the US gov can implement a BSR and price can go to $1m next year as you mentioned (it won't), **and** **yet** the 4 year cycle could still repeat. The two aren't necessarily at odds with each other. A $1m BTC in 2025 will absolutely shatter the objective trend of diminishing returns. As Michael Saylor has infamousy claimed numerous times, ,'[all you models will be destroyed](https://x.com/saylor/status/1793630435530158568?lang=en)'. IMO it's not going to $1m as soon as 2025 but the best bit about all this shenanigans is we only have a year to find out.
Some quickfire updates to my thread (which seemed to annoy so many!): \* I claimed after the 'red line' was broken, price would significantly increase. [Since the line was indeed invalidated, price has not put in a daily close below it](https://imgur.com/a/Zh0LRyg) \* As odd as this may sound, the bull run has only just started. The inflation adjusted $70k 2021 ATH is around $83k today. That means Bitcoin is only trading around 25% higher right now than it was 3.5 years ago (a frivolous gain by Bitcoin's standards) \* I wrote this thread 5 months ago when the price was $60k. Applying some revised analysis since, there is a possibility price tops out around April 2025, just as it did April 2021 in the previous bull market top (my original post alluded to a potential premature peak in price) \* If so, my revised top for the cycle would be $270,623 \* Since the original post, the number of BTC on exchanges has reduced from some 2.5m to 2.25m (a 10% decrease) \* It's ridiculously early to even begin to speculate yet, but forward looking analysis indicates the current price of $107k will be the Q4 2026 bear market bottom, assuming $446k is the peak and we see another typical 75% correction. But let's not worry about that right now... FOMC is tomorrow (likely rate cut). Trump's inaugurated in a month. Supposedly various US states are considering their own BSR. Rumours are Trump might sign one in using an Executive Order on 'day one' (I doubt it). And the US will soon have a pro-Bitcoin "crypto czar" in David Sacks at the helm. These are all highly bullish catalysts. My original price prediction at $446k resulted in many people laughing and outright abusing me, but - until proven otherwise - I genuinely still believe it's in play for next year. All the best!
Pretty amazing how many efforts are cropping up to create BSR's (Bitcoin Strategic Reserves). Wonder who will be the first to actually pull it off.
Better not be some random small county drafting legislation, and actually about the National BSR.
So I consider myself reasonably well-educated on economic issues, and I've been involved in Bitcoin since late 2010 with the Wikileaks donations. I participated heavily in the Iowa causes in both of Ron Paul's campaigns because I wanted to see an end to the Federal Reserve. I also mined Bitcoin continually over a decade ago (and off and on with various mining enterprises since then, most notably in 2017). I've also read the article on hyperbitcoinization and generally agree with it, at least in concept. In practice, I don't think the Lightning network has seen the kinds of adoption rates needed for it to work. I don't know if I understand right now why there is this sudden push for adding to a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR). I mean, I get the idea, and I agree it could be done with existing coin that is in the hands of agencies. It's the adding more Bitcoin to it part that I don't get. With the likelihood of the GOP controlling two branches and a Department of Government Efficiency, doesn't this mean they plan to cut costs and thus reduce federal spending? If so, these are changes that will strengthen the dollar, not weaken it, and eventually bringing debt under control should reduce the need for Bitcoin as a store of value asset among the populace. If the dollar strengthens and federal spending is under control, everyone will win domestically without having to add more to a BSR. While I'd be happy to see the price increase, I don't think that Bitcoin should rise in value at the expense of the public as a whole, and I'm worried that adding more to a BSR sends the wrong signals, especially to DC, that it's just business as usual and it's okay to keep monetary inflation and federal spending going hog wild. Alternatively, what would be particularly troublesome would be if both spending is drastically cut and we are putting the nation's wealth into a strategic Bitcoin reserve rather than just paying the debt off, as this could lead to a significantly contractionary monetary policy. These effects on the dollar would be negative domestically, and much of the nation's unbanked and uneducated would be hurt the most by this as they don't have reliable ways to invest in Bitcoin. Milton Friedman once chastised the Federal Reserve for contributing even more towards the Great Depression as they increased interest rates drastically, forced bank holidays, and generally took the wrong steps towards solving the actual problems that arose after the roaring twenties. It took them 70 years, but Ben Bernanke finally apologized to Milton Friedman on behalf of the Federal Reserve for this bad policy back in 2002. I'm a little worried this is a case of history repeating itself. It might even get as bad as Executive Order 6102 was, where the Roosevelt administration effectively banned private ownership of gold in a misguided attempt to cull commodities speculation in response to the failing bank closures. We don't want this same thing happening with Bitcoin, where only national reserves can hold crypto, right? Then why aren't we advocating for a sound fiscal policy? Cut costs or only add to a BSR during years when you run a significant deficit. If you're planning on cutting costs, wait a while before actually increasing Bitcoin holdings, don't one-two punch the economy in the gut by also adding to a BSR. Anyway, the TL;DR of this is that a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is fine as long as we're only adding what is already in agency hands to it and we're cutting federal spending. If we both cut federal spending AND add to a BSR, I don't see that heading anywhere but to a depression. If every US state starts adding to a BSR, that could be particularly troublesome, especially if it becomes a race. This would be more than just hyperbitcoinization, it would be depression for the vast majority of the Western world.