Reddit Posts
Sharing some TA: A potential drawdown?
I generated hundreds of crypto trading strategies and open-sourced 416 of them with full reports. Only 10 passed a brutal 7-stage validation
Technical analysis actually works
When do we think the actual BTC bottom is coming? What’s your playbook?
I backtested astrology as a crypto trading strategy. Jupiter was my portfolio manager, Mercury my risk assessor. It made +3.4% in 45 days, beating every other bot I built :| But there's a catch.
Altcoins and crypto ain't dead and BTC and ETH is not the only way (although it's the safest one). Prove me wrong.
👀 Sneak peek at this year's Cryptocurrency Village badge for DEF CON 34!
Anyone else planning to check out the Cryptocurrency Village at DEF CON 34?
Has anyone heard of “Trump Accounts Funded” token on RH?
Mentions
But we had a clear technical breakout last month. Why did that TA fail?
>Bulls have no brains, I guess? Remember the time two years ago that it was impossible for BTC to go above $57K because of TA and because of layers of cement between impenetrable bricks? And then it smashed through it with ease and how we mocked you for months? Yeah, it was hilarious.
I was thinking up or down but this is sound TA.
Which part of stop gambling in the markets people can't understand? It's impossible to end up like this even with the basics or risks management, literally impossible, you can't get liquidated no matter what! I Don't care how much experience you have, or how good is your TA, getting wiped out is the results of gambling. You deserve it. Sorry if you don't like my language but the truth must be said.
People who go by/use "fibonacci" shit when world events have more effect on price than any form of TA ever will blows my mind.. some clown told me BTC was going to $2k last cycle because of "fibonacci" 🤣
Not gonna lie, I’d definitely try something like that. I do DCA but sometimes I look at the chart after my buy and feel like an idiot cause price was clearly in a weird spot. Having a quick view that says "maybe wait a day" without needing to study TA for hours would be nice.
I'm targeting $76-$77k and the bull market support band, only if we fail to hold the bmsb i'm looking for $65k and a potential lower low NFA, DYOR, trust your own TA
Go check out my TA and analysis : QuantRegime on YouTube.
How are you so sure of that information? Says who floor at 80k? Ur TA? TA is irrelevant in crypto btw
You can really tell when people have absolutely no TA knowledge.
You guys should really look into TA. It's actually pretty useful. I noticed that more often the market does something completely different from what TA expert predict.
your TA says to buy high and sell low huh
Post is by: drykilo and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ww0pod/i_generated_hundreds_of_crypto_trading_strategies/ I built a validation pipeline that runs strategies through 7 stages on real Binance data: Stage 1: code safety scan, in-sample, out-of-sample, walk-forward, randomized starts, slippage stress and Stage 7: final holdout slice nothing else touches. 6 months of 5 minute candles per run on BTC/ETH/SOL domains (ran on my weak laptop so going past 6 months would take a few extra days, I'll do a VM run next with more data). Then I made a generator with several ideas and let it auto create and run the gauntlet on them (In retrospect might have been inefficient. I should have fed previously passed strategies back in to guide generation but I was a bit paranoid about correlation and spawning 416 clones). It took me a few days to run and the repo is almost everything that came out: 406 rejects plus 10 survivors, each with a report card showing in-sample and OOS returns, Sharpe, drawdown, trade count, the exact stage it died on and why. [github.com/CacheCarti/Crypto-Strategies](http://github.com/CacheCarti/Crypto-Strategies) **The interesting stuff I found:** * The single best-looking backtest in the batch `pctb_fade_sol_v3`, **+2014bps in-sample!!! :O went -112bps** the moment it ran on unseen data. * Literal astrology meme bots I created for fun got decently high returns in backtests but obviously failed in validation. Backtests have a big element of luck because of the smaller time frame! Unreliable!! (Please do not consider the report cards showing a strategy with high PnL as a "good" strategy. I might have been luck) * Out of all the strategies, **only one showed an in-sample Sharpe above 1.5**. But it failed validation anyway. If you're searching for the perfect backtest in this dataset it basically doesn't exist. * 25 strategies were profitable out-of-sample and STILL got rejected. They couldn't survive walk-forward and injected slippage. Green OOS numbers by itself is just most probably luck until proven otherwise, but they definitely might be a good place to fork and improve on in the future! * Weirdest result: some of the 10 survivors have **negative OOS returns.** They passed because they held up under perturbation and randomized starts. * The family that dominated was kinda bizzare: `asia_drift_btc` BTC drifts during Asian session hours, **7/9 of these variants passed!** Meanwhile the families everyone actually trades went **0/9** across the board: Donchian breakouts, bollinger squeezes, RSI reversion, orderbook imbalance. Context beat TA, so is TA dead??? Lol, my generator was probably bad at writing them, someone smart could actually build a good template for TA strategies. * Every BTC scalping variant failed: 0/18. At \~7bps a side in fees, the edge you need on 5-minute bars is brutal. Anything thinner cannot survive. It might have been my own 5 minute time windows of evaluation though. The code is plain Python on a simple predict-style contract, so they can drop into most backtesters. Most of the rejects failed on robustness rather than logic, so they're actually decent starting points if you want to improve them. Happy to answer questions on the methodology. If anyone improves the strategies and gets different results I'd love to see it! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Nah that’s TA bruh Check this out https://www.porkopolis.io/thechart/
I like that guy who runs Swan bitcoin. I've enjoyed a few of his videos on YouTube, but I don't watch any TA or influencer regularly.
You have no idea what you're talking about. You think this is some candlestick trendline crystal ball TA bullshit? It's statistics, probabilities, macro economics, quantitative analysis and systems building, etc It's really challenging. So go back to your little 'oversold RSI' trades and your cute zig-zag Elliot waves while we learn exactly how top quants in macroeconomics build their systems. Aside from that, shut the fuck if you haven't tried to learn it.
You questioning basic TA is actually bullish because an increase in doubters is inversely corelated to TA being accurate. /s
Filtering TA for bullish regimes changes everything; calling it "astrology for men" until tested is so true.
Some of the TA sounds a bit silly before you understands it :)
Thank you for your reply. Regime is based on yesterdays bar and back. The pattern was set before trying any data and the results with this base model were good. Then I filtered them a bit (which can be put to question) by not acting if the last 120 bars high minus low was very large. This is not my first model that uses TA (my bot has 160 models in total) so its just an example of the latest. I will test other coins before deploying it for sure!
Yeah, TA works. The only people who claim it doesn’t are 1) Unrealistic expectations 2) Never got even decent at it. The rate of getting to the NBA from Hugh school varsity is 0.03%. Much much worse than the rate of profitable traders. You can practice as much as you can, but there is an innate skill live plus practice. And you don’t hear anyone saying practicing basketball doesn’t work. 3) Are just trying to convince themselves or each other because they don’t want to admit they’re leaving money on the table.
Post is by: Appropriate-Talk-735 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wrm2xt/technical_analysis_actually_works/ I tested BTC and a couple top cryptos over the last 5 years and these are results with 0.5% fee and using the worst buy and sell prices in the bar traded. These results are much better than if you randomly trade the same instruments during this period. So I implore you to give TA a chance, I was sure it was "astrology for men" until I actually tried it. The pattern here is a horizontal breakout. I filtered out so it only runs when BTC is in a bullish regime. Open for questions/PM or if you want me to try something else :) Positions: 855 12h: -0.1% 1d: 0.1% 2d: 0.6% 5d: 2.4% 10d: 4.5% 20d: 10.5% 30d: 17.9% 50d: 27.2% *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Of course it’s a long term bull. Zoom out, number go up. If you’re still not seeing it, zoom out further! You don’t need fancy lines and TA to zoom out and see the long term bull case.
A five-year bull flag isn't TA, it's pure faith
Oh boy you're going to have a rough time in this sub. Some reasons you are not getting serious answers: 1. People are rarely serious here, and especially, especially not in the daily threads. 1. TA is astrology for traders. Lots of a posteriori confirmation bias. 1. Your question is weirdly worded with grammatical errors. 1. Most here don't take TA seriously.
Beg to differ about the TA. The sideways breakout of the bear trend-line (from the October high) at the start of last August was the shot across the bow. Less than two weeks later, the blast-off. TA called it (I played it) but expectations of past performance guaranteeing future results got traders caught mega-short, i.e., "Bitcoin bear markets are always 365 days long, right?" This expectation bias was the perfect setup for the coming god-candles. You cannot successfully call the market if your thesis is based on the "obvious."
Of course it can. You just expect the price to randomly bounce between the rainbow’s maximum and minimum limits and occasionally leave the rainbow randomly for indeterminate periods of time. Haven’t you ever TA’d before?
TAs are plainly descriptive. There is nothing scientifical in TA.
decoupling is the right frame. i had the same setup — dex chart + dexscreener + tv + twitter + a news tab — and it fell apart every time volatility hit. browser lag right at the worst moment.what actually helped was collapsing the research side into one chat interface instead of 4 dashboards. i use true ai for that part now — ask it whats moving a pair, it pulls heatmap context and relevant headlines together in one answer. execution stays where it should, signed from the wallet on a separate non-custodial venue, so the two layers dont bleed into each other. still keep tv open for actual TA though. and honestly for pure heatmap visualization coinglass is still better if thats your main thing
TA can’t predict human psychology either.
I have no idea who this guy is, but I will watch some of his content now. I can respect this, although I do not believe in TA, especially with Bitcoin.
If you truly understand TA you are insanely rich.
You DCA in the bear market, and you DCA out in the bull market. Do not try to time the market. Have price targets that are realistic and be conservative. My favorite TA guy is Blockchain Backer. He is very, very good at giving signals of when it is a good time to DCA in and out has been correct the last two bear and bull runs.
Very well thought thru analysis just like a true TA new guy 😂
Bitcoin as always, doesn’t give a damn at all about TA astrology bros. It goes up when it’s good and ready and not a moment sooner.
Sorry Ben but i stopped following you long ago. TA doesn't work for me, but constant DCA does
the more people using TA, the more right TA becomes
I do something somewhat similar, but feel it scales better as your portfolio increases. In my view don’t think about your overall portfolio level, since this doesn’t ‘mean anything’ with regard to the positions you’re taking. Mark out technical levels for the coins you’re invested in. Decide at what levels to take x% profits for the individual position, rather than based off of the overall portfolio. That means you capture more upside, the profit taking is based off of TA and or momentum (or whatever other indicators you choose to inform your strategy) rather than how much overall you’ve made.
Obviously we could and will test supports on the downside, and yes he admittance implies cycle bottom is in circa ~59k June/July. Yes he is just another human like all of us and could be wrong again. We could test 40k again but the odds/probabilities seem to be diminishing as we reach end of Q4. It feels like a new bull as TA 50/200 suggests but we could all be wrong. Nobody knows f*** about f*** DYOR. NFA.
watching all these TA guys suddenly shift from "40k incoming" to "100k next week" is hilarious. they sell panic at the bottom, buy the pump later, and then pretend it was all part of the plan. consistent DCA proves over and over that time in the market beats trying to outsmart it with fancy trendlines.
Props to Ben for admitting it. TA can predict human psychology on charts, but it can never predict fiat degradation and sovereign supply shocks.
First I want to see how r/cc feels lol. I'm also not gonna put all my faith in TA and their "well we broke this and that imaginary line, so we can only go up from here". Average Joe can't afford anything right now. Rich people are still more interested in AI. Borrowing cost is going up, bonds are selling off, rate are starting to hike, so liquidity is gonna slowly get drained. Also, it depends who opens a short here. If it's retail, we're good, they'll get cleaned out and we might go up more. But if it's whales starting to short, we're fucked. Also, is there gonna be any fomo and momentum after this pump? Are we gonna get any real volume or interest back in? We gotta see that first. But of course by the time we find out, it's gonna be too late.
A screenshot is all the TA anyone needs apparently. Uptoberfest got a nice ring to it though, I'll give you that.
Ben Cowen throwing all these theories bla bla bla and the market does the opposite. I stopped listening to TA and just buy till halving then let it ride and try to take profit when it’s made reasonable profits
Ignorant people like you dislike FACTS and TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. Ben Cowen has been wrong a couple of times in the past but in the last 2-3 years he has been spot on. I've been looking at charts for over 20 years and TA is right most of the time.
Cherry picking and survivorship bias. Real things, look it up. Past price doesn't dictate future price enough to be able to create an edge from that. If that was true, then one could create a model that predicts future price from charts/TA alone. I tried that for a long time until I figured out it's not enough. Need different data.
Respectfully resident dimwitted. U would can't even fathoms how my promts going my LLMs. Ur head would explode. Hers an example hey chat bot howamy promtd did I use to gather this information in this anaylsis? This wasn't one AI prompt lol. This was built over several weeks and roughly 200 prompts. We started with a simple 70k retracement thesis, then stress tested it against TA, RSI divergences, volume, OI/liquidations, ETF/on-chain flows, rates, credit, oil, Fed/BOJ policy and macro data. We constantly looked for evidence that could invalidate the thesis, challenged our own assumptions and adjusted probabilities as new data came in instead of just looking for reasons to confirm it. 🤡 ass...
It is. Plenty of dipshits here. No meaningful conversations about TA or news here. Know of any other subreddits for Bitcoin?
That's been the pattern and trading range top for two recent periods... Not a good look... 82k is vital to break upward and stay there for at least a week... that's the only thing that would really confirm a long-term bull at this point to some TA folks
There's a lot of truth in your words, but maybe it's worth knowing that no less than Stanley Druckenmiller used to lean on TA analysis for his entries and exits. Human psychology frequently drives market moves on various time scales, and these psychological moves form price patterns. People who have been down a long time tend to sell when they break even, just to give an example. The trick is knowing when "this time is different", which pattern applies... and as with all things, most people suck at it. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater though... even if it's a small baby in some pretty nasty bathwater 😂❤️
TA can't be used to predict the future. it's only analysis of market history. If he's trying to predict the future, someone should take his physics degree away.
A smart dude (Physicist) in the BTC Youtube space that has a very rational TA approach, but he's fixated on putting previous cycles onto this one as if the peak was anything like the previous... Lots of people quote him and point to his 'research' as reason to have avoided DCAing into Bitcoin in the low $60k's all summer. Markets don't let you "time" them based on previous models the masses follow. If they did, everyone would be a billionaire.
Like I said in the last few days, there was a good chance in the short run we were still gonna go up here some more. Not because of any news or any TA. But as some people here had pointed out before, low volume and whale games. It doesn't matter that stocks are going down, oil is going up, rates are getting hiked, gold is dipping, Clarity got shot down, bonds are selling off, or that the sky is falling. If you really think retail is back and all hitting the "buy" button at once to make this pump, I got a bridge to sell you. This market is playing its own game right now. And I say this as someone who got blindsided a couple times already by not paying attention to that.
Vibes TA. The highest form of intellectual acuity
it didn't "work" because of your trendlines dude. It's an accumulation RANGE. You had a 50/50 chance of going up or down. Its still bullish accumulation in a range. How do you not understand this? . But you didn't "call" shit. There were two outcomes. This was shit discretionary TA at its worst, but you can still be right. You deserve 1% credit. But I hope you made money on this.
Trading is pushed on every one (by the trading platforms) and almost no one makes reliable money trading (except the trading platforms). As someone who has been in crypto from 2018, my opinion is that only reliable way to make money in crypto is to 1. Dollar cost average BTC in bear markets and hold for dear life. 2. If you want to buy alts find some category leader that has held up relatively well in the bear market and has similar winning characteristics as BTC/DOGE/XRP etc. (multi cycle winners): organic hype, loyal community, outrageous/delusional price targets, cult status. And then hold that also for dear life. A good indicator is that the less some coin has trader TA posting around it and the more it has insane sounding "conspiracy theories" or people flocking around it as a community/identity the better.
This is the laziest TA I’ve ever seen
I'm not diminishing what you own, where you live or whatever success you've had in life. I'm happy for you. I want people to be rich af. I was, however, diminishing the fuck out of that shit-slop discretionary TA the OP posted. A fucking chart crime against humanity. You got offended by the wrong person is all.
Oh? You don't one of these, too? Is that why you can't show me yours? "dependent" lol. Dude, GTFO and learn to accept the truth, especially when you don't like the way someone said it. This guys TA is complete and utter retard horseshit and now you look stupid af, too.
Will you listen to someone that has 10 years of experience in trading, has the logs to back it up and basically mastered TA, Fundamentals and probabilities?
Can be either. Its a lagging indicator. At least 4 of the line on this chart are followed by downtrend. TA can be manipulated, often lagging, often doesnt matter.
Very little. TA is like using horoscopes to predict your future.
Wdym less than a 6 month timeline? There is definitely value to TA
If you bought it at 96k then you would be down 20%? So it’s not the bottom, these TA posts are meaningless
Don't hold any coin/token for 5-7 years. 99% will be gone. Learn TA and try to DCA around the dip and sell when you have profit.
Josh Olszewicz on Youtube is the only decent TA I've found. He does some altcoins but mostly sticks to the big ones and macro.
I always forget most people here trust TA astrology and don’t think about the development competitive landscape.
I charted for 12 hours once and my conclusion was also up, down, or sideways. your wife boyfriend is the real TA genius here, happy kitten is always bullish
I am not a prophet but I expect another dip before the real break out. Technicals and TA calls for another dip but it can be also invalidated if we properly break 82.500
dream market analysis is the only TA that matters tbh. i had one where i was buying a coffee with a single satoshi and the barista thanked me for the generous tip
Finally, some TA I can actually understand.
Maybe my TA was right this time after all.
Maybe my TA was right this time after all.
I remember almost all (except the GOAT Ben Cowen and Gareth Soloway) were telling that Bitcoin is going to 50K-40K-30K showing TA and FA data up until that news came from Scott Bessent. As soon as the price surged to 80K all of those morons with the speed of light changed their shoes and started claiming that bear market is over.
Bro is really trying to day trade bitcoin and lose all his money LOL you ever heard of support/resistance flipping? Its the most basic TA strategy.
This post is a clear TA indicator. Time to short it https://preview.redd.it/icr53nlv74nh1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6794297e0e894e63ecbc0a2b4725df12bf1cf55b
Imho TA works best when the trading market is liquid and transparent. In the case of BTC the latter is not possible so TA does not work as it should.
TA of this sort is completely meaningless as long as we have a decrepit, diseased, malignantly narcissistic, horrifically incompetent, mentally deranged, haphazardly erratic piece of fucking shit in the White House. It is pointless to make ANY prediction when our future is left to the maniacal whims of this lunatic.
Good lesson to learn. One of the best quotes I’ve heard regarding investing which applies to all this TA bollocks speculation: “Don’t tell me your opinion, tell me your position”
TA is essentially a snapshot of human psychology when it comes to trading. You can somewhat predict support and resistance levels if all the big players are using the same patterns, etc. Of course from time time there will be sudden shock events that can move the price with no regards to TA.
It’s been proven over and over for 100yrs. You really think big financial firms are going to create entire departments based on TA if it doesn’t work. But, you keep on losing money if you want and I’ll keep on taking it. Thanks for your bags.
Think about it. Every big financial firm uses TA. Do you think the big wigs like Blackrock would use them if they are BS?
You crazy! TA has been proven to work over 100yrs. Just because YOU don’t know how to do TA, does not make it be. You think these giant companies like Blackrock would be using them if they didn’t work? Use that noggin of yours
It's useful if you know what you are doing, but it is just a tool, nothing else. You have to understand that it is not a predictor of what will happen, it just gives you context, that you use together with other info. People critize TA saying that its astrology, but what they don't understand is that the purpose of TA is not to predict price. In their mind, it either works 100% of the time or it doesn't work at all, but that is far from the truth. Another thing that haters don't take into account is that a lot of people use TA, so it is self-fulfilling. If a lot of traders are using TA and expecting something to happen, that has real effects.
Now this is some TA I can get behind 😝
Yea but this is a very bad anology. Because finding a 100$ bill is not a consistent way of making money. If TA realy worked/works it is. And once there is a way of making consistent & exponential money, without a huge entry barrier, like millions of dollars, people will be one that.
Seems like there is always some goofy TA term I've never heard of. The hash ribbons! The ichimoku cloud formations!
TA is a waste of time. Like most things in fiat, it’s a game controlled by those with the most access to information first. Ie you can do all the TA you want but if you don’t have a Bloomberg terminal you’re late to information and your competition has had hours to exit and enter trades based off of getting the news/narrative shifts first. I’ve been in Bitcoin for 5 years. The best way to win in Bitcoin is the simplest way that no one likes to listen to: just DCA and ignore the price.But traders not want to hear logic they rather complicate things because they think Bitcoin is fiat when it’s a parallel system
All of this text to speak about fucking star alignment in the sky. You TA people really are a special kind.
Since everyone looks at TA, it acts as a psychological indicator. That's all.
I spent time doing a bot and then tested it 5 years back. Some (but not all) TA works great for me!
“Not in the same league” lol You’ve outed yourself as someone who thinks they are an expert because they’ve been watching TA YouTube videos for 3 months and can parrot back what the influencers say. Anyone in a different league wouldn’t be posting in this thread on Reddit.
You have to statistically analyze and prove it. TA by itself as the layman believes it to be (eg bull flags, wedges etc) are not how day traders do it. People who label it astrology etc have either never done the required research and work or don’t have the mental capacity to understand it. You also can’t just take “TA” from a YouTube channel and expect it to work for you. If you do you’ll probably end up in the “astrology” camp