AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
AMR, Despite the Recent Price Runup, is Still a Buy
AMR, Despite the Recent Price Runup, I still think the company is a buy
Benjamin Hill Mining's Strategic Leap into Colombian Coal $BNNHF
Benjamin Hill Mining Corp - Strategic Leap into Colombian Coal $BNN $BNNHF
The market isn't collapsing, and AI is out to help you.
Leader in Motion Capture tech used by Marvel, EA, and VR Youtubers like CodeMiko, Movella Holdings (NASDAQ: MVLA) has huge potential!
OpGen ($OPGN) - New public offering to support funding needs
An analysis of stocks that are still up 1000%/2000%/3000% from the Covid bottom in 2020 and buying Puts on them
Puts on everything...An attempt at making somewhat educated Options contract buys rather than doing degenerate gambling...(Not going well so far, so you should probably just go ahead and buy those 0DTE YOLOS)
Coal is the New Solar. And Equally Complex.
Coal is back: COP26 revealed that countries like India and China still need coal, despite backlash
Coal is back: COP26 revealed that countries like India and China still need coal, despite backlash
OpGen ($OPGN) Subsidiary Ares Genetics Launches AREScloud
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)
$RGGI - Resgreen Group Attends The Assembly Show in Rosemont, IL To Showcase Flagship AGV, PullBuddy and BotWay Express Software
$OPGN Epic opportunity! Time to make short-squeezed lemonade!
$OPGN receives FDA clearance for Acuitas AMR Gene Panel and multiple more catalysts coming
$OPGN - insider buying by CEO and COO continues
No-one noticing AMR? Don’t see postings at all about it. Not only last three days, but multi year bottoming. Can it get back to $80?
Mentions
AMR is legitimately a good buy right now.
AMR, HCC India wants to (has planned/in construction/opening) double their steel production by 2030. Met coal supply is predicted to drop (more capacity retiring than opening) from 2028 onwards. India buts almost all it's met coal from sea borne. These two companies will do well and cover both models in the coal industry. Plus they cannibalistic and pay a dividend (both are expected to increase)
All other industrial commercial robots being actually used, are better than what RR is making. Just look at Rockwell, ABB, KUKA , just to name a few. There are already many AMR, Delta,and SCARA robots used in industry for years now that are much more efficient than anything coming outnof Richtech. Richtech's robots are a joke and anyone talking about them like they arent leaaaggues behind in usefulness and efficiency, just looks ljke they dont know anything about robotics.
I bought AMR once because I wanted to buy the ambulance company and said good enough.
Sold AMR at 120 before climb to 400, sold TSLA at 125, sold GEO at 12 before climb over 35, sold VEON at 26 before climb over 40, sold TKO at 45 before going to 100, sold SATL at 7 before hitting 50
I see. He seems to be on AMR and HCC. Considering electricity market is tight, I guess steelmaking will still need to rely on met coal for a few years.
Just means it’ll be faster to get rejected by the NRC (again). Streamlining the process is advantageous for all the players in the SMR/AMR space, particularly those with existing, functional designs!
5 year comparisons are much more misleading than usual because of the Covid shock timing. Just pick any company that was a bankruptcy risk at the time but survived. E.g., AMR (coal company) was up 3300% over the past 5 years.
I've been finding amazing gems using pure value techniques this year. Doubled my money on five below FIVE, made a killing on AMR, and now I'm in LULU... All value investing plays.
Indeed. Patience paid off. I was still wondering if it was worth getting back into AMR. But for now I'm just in HCC.
Never meant to be first line. It's an AMR play. Even with 1% of the 26M prescriptions per year, they expect at least $250M (about 1% show resistance). at $35M market cap atm, it's obviously a huge discount. My concern is how quickly it will gain acceptance as a new option to IV treatments Also of concern, they spent $500M so far. If they accept BO less than $500M, it will broadcast the massive risk that you take developing new antibiotics. this reduces the incentives and we need a strong healthy pipeline of new antibiotics for the oncoming AMR war
There is an argument to be made of the US Metallurgical Coal Producers (AMR, HCC, CNR)
I should’ve bought AMR at $13. They peaked at $458 if memory serves me right
u/AP9384629344432 Are you still extremely bullish on small cap value and AMR? I'd ask you on r/stocks but as you know they censor quite a bit.
I wonder if the Australian health system is ready. Increases in E. Coli )157:H7. Increased Salmonella and Listeria. Increases in antibacterial resistences. Increases in AMR pathogens such as resistant Salmonelle. Hormone disruption caused by the excessive uncontrolled use of estrogen, progesterone and testosterone analogs banned outside America since the 80s. And let's not forget increases colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer! They make elevated LDL cholesterol, heart disease and increases in type 2 diabetes seem minor. The CDC estmates that approximately 48 million people get sick in America yearly due to the beef they eat. No wonder Trump wants to silence the CDC. I wonder if Australia will simply receive the beef, then dump it somewhere ... it'd be better for them.
Have you looked at $AMR? It’s a high-grade met coal beast trading at deep value levels, with coal prices rebounding and 20% of the float sold short. Even legendary value investor Mohnish Pabrai made it one of his largest positions.
Have you seen what’s brewing with $AMR? It’s a premium met coal powerhouse trading at bargain-bin prices, with coal prices ripping back and short interest stacked sky-high.
Have you looked at $AMR? High quality met coal company, low valuation, coal price recovery, high short interest.
Sure... But if you bought in when the other value and stock subs were shilling shit like AMR at $400, or even $200 few years back. HCC at $75. You'd be down like crazy. These garbage industries go nowhere.
As someone who works in manufacturing, its always entertaining to me for Tesla to "discover" some new manufacturing technology that is 10x more complicated than what has been around for ages. It shows how young their workforce is and inexperienced. I get you have to start small, but these things aren't doing anything we aren't already doing with a normal robot at a way faster rate. By the time these doofus' get that thing to do anything useful, it will already have been done by a normal robot/AMR system.
A ton of AVG/AMR/AMHS manufacturers are China based as well. The price tag for the automation systems needed to run a foundry are going through the roof as well.
His later attempt involving American Airlines' parent company (AMR Corp) around 1989-1990 did not result in a similar greenmail profit and is sometimes cited as an example where the strategy didn't work out as planned
AMR and HCC are where you would look, but I'd be very careful about making a play here. It's a capital intensive industry with slim margins that is vulnerable to rate changes. The WH pandering to its voting base won't make coal more profitable.
> rerate in the coming months There's no reason to believe that's coming so soon. Look at AMR and HCC for how met coal equities did. They only rerated as the commodity dropped 1/3 after not moving while it increased by 1/3! AMR then promptly collapsed. With EQX the goal is for them to pay off all debt and then slowly return capital to share holders. There will be some insane spike where we should sell. In a best case scenario, management will continue operating in a good way and we can buy back in after a correction and hold for a decade. IAG is in a similar situation. I repeat, don't expect quick gains. Gold's 2x higher than in 2020 when it was $12/share (with 300 million shares) vs. today's $6.20 with 450 million shares. Production is also up a lot... The equities are insanely cheap but can stay this way until the company e.g. starts buy backs.
Well you know coal investors, specifically met coal, are a thing because it the last cycle you had companies turn into 100 baggers within two years e.g. $AMR. Highly depressed valuations (I'm talking about stuff trading at one times free cash flow), institutional mass selloff, no banks want to lend money combined with supply shortages = miracle.
Short term no way. Earliest signs of recovery are probably 2026 onwards. I have no way of timing the bottom but I think buying $AMR, $HCC near book value will be fine. $HCC has the best cost structure as they are the cheapest producer, but $AMR has probably the best managment team in the coal industry. $AMR's managment knows how to allocate capital very well (meaning mostly buybacks) while $HCC's is more a boomer club as is most coal companies, meaning M&A and dividends. I'm not a metcoal guru so that would be my guess.
Surprised you don’t like AMR - seem like great operators. What don’t you like about it?
Don't like AMR, but HCC is good for 2026 unless prolonged steel recession then we're screwed. What you said is really it.
How do you like AMR & HCC today? You seem pretty knowledgeable in the space. Starting to dig in - clean balance sheets to see through any prolonged pricing downturns in met coal, steady production, shareholder friendly/rational management teams. What am I missing besides my inability to predict where met coal prices go over the next year or two?
I’m long miners too. $GOLD being one of them. I haven’t pulled the trigger on steel yet, but Pabrai keeps buying AMR & HCC, so I’m tempted.
Good call - I wish I listened back then! I remember that comment. I bought $APP quite a while later. Btw - are you still following your Met Coal thesis? I sold out of BTU and AMR a couple months ago (should've sold AMR even earlier), but I'm still in HCC. Looks like pricing pressure is expected to continue this year by management, but Blue Creek is on the horizon in 2026.
Equiniti is the transfer agent for AA. So yes - it could be legit. Did you own AMR stock in 2013 when AA filed for bankruptcy?
You are mistaken. All AMR equity stock was cancelled on December 9, 2013. AMR equity shareholders only received a prorata distribution of 3.5% of the restructured company. And as I already said - the original restructuring plan when submitted does not include a distribution of shares of the restructured company. That may have changed - feel free to share the section of the Plan that informs your belief.
Just bought a bit of SMCI. My first tech buy since I bought and sold META in 2023. Other contrarian plays that looks interesting: DG, AMR..
at least they handled it somewhat better than AMR, who bought back to the sky whilst management cashed out stock options last january. Half the price now, no cash for buybacks left.. EVO sort of timed the market, probably not expecting further price derioration after last fairly good earnings. In hindsight, they should not deplete buyback authorization completely although the occured value loss is minimal still. US and regulated market margins is where risk is for EVO.
If you buy $VALE and $HCC/$AMR/... you are basically a turbo steel/met coal bull. I'm not sure I would want to go there. My portfolio has decent expore to met coal but I wouldn't want to increase the bet directly or indirectly. Then again independently of the steel macro outlook, $VALE looks like decent value.
It was BTU or AMR (or a combination) if I remember right. And I may be off by $10M (it could be higher lol).
The only hard evidence was AMR's 60-day notice of intent to cancel that was made public in October. Everything else is speculation.
HCC or AMR long term 20 to 30 Year holds
I dont disagree with you, that the revenue is speculative. however, the demand for certain antibiotics in Nigeria is very high due to AMR. i just added a link on a post I made earlier in the month about the demand (also added below). lets say pessimistically, they only sell 300k units in the next year and sell for $20. with P/E 20. This would still be a revenue of $2.3M. the $1.7M in operations is the grossly over exaggerated assumptions that they have more deals and have to mass produce, they just completed the 500k production from $440K operation cost! so if no other deals come in that is a net income of 1,460,000 (minus $440,000x2). for a company that literally had a net revenue of $3k for 2023, this is amazing. and will result in a price target of $0.022. Still a 280% gain at a minimum. keep in mind, they make 600k a year in licensing and they break even in all cost with that, so I'm excluding it in the revenue calc. [Vitastem Demand In Nigeria](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1gez9rl/vdrm_massive_news_that_shows_the_huge_demand_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Most of my biggest winners in the market were all first flagged from research on Twitter initially. APP, UI, AMR, [un-named], DAKT, etc. There's always someone who puts together a really compelling thread. I don't have the time/energy to sift through screeners, tbh. Would rather let someone else do the work, then do my own from there. This isn't academia, copying others is totally fine for making money in the stock market so long as you do your own DD on top of it.
So Lina Khan is probably going to be fired imminently, meaning M&A is probably about to go wild. Maybe that's what small caps are rallying so much, including financials. Also means less scrutiny for big tech. Side note: Deleted CELH from my portfolio, that earnings was genuinely terrible. Not going to just wait around for it to become a growth story again. May replace it with AMZN momentarily. As for BTU, maybe I'll set a Sell Limit order at $35, this euphoria is crazy but I could see it going beyond past $30 so don't want to prematurely bite the trigger. Holding HCC and the scraps of my AMR position (I think I had sold like 80% of my shares from peak position)
Looking at coal (BTU. AMR, ARCH), prisons (GEO, CXW), various construction plays.
> Not me ever, but AMR in 2023 was my attempt at a high IQ play It was...if you had sold in February.
Using P/E ratios is like the IQ bell curve meme: Low IQ: "What does E mean? Anyway price went up a lot, it's a good stock so I'm gonna buy it" [Me buying CELH] Mid IQ: "The multiple of the S&P 500 is 22, this high quality company is growing faster and has a multiple of 18, so it's a buy" [Me buying Google] High IQ: "Multiples are inadequate for cyclicals and temporarily under-earning or unprofitable companies. I prefer to directly model out different trajectories of cash flows. I built this complex valuation model based on historical industry data and a neural network to estimate the next 24 quarters of revenue. I incorporate a a wide margin of safety, and estimate this is a buy. I used Monte Carlo simulation to determine the most likely outcomes." [Not me ever, but AMR in 2023 was my attempt at a high IQ play] Very high IQ: "P/E is low/medium/high, whatever, company good, it's a buy" [Not me ever]
AMR HCC WFRD are companies hidden from most people
I'm very interested in investing in coal and I've been split between AMR and HCC. My only concern about investing in HCC today is that, from my understanding, its bull case is revolved around the success of Blue Creek in 2026, which MAY lead to a buyback program similar to AMR. But by the looks of it there may not be any buyback program before that.
The stock was extremely mispriced early 2023 and we ended up having a very good year for met coal prices. At the same time, management initiated a massive buyback program. Since then, met coal prices have dipped (and more than you'd want seasonally) while the China steel glut worsened. And management turned off the buyback machine. Fundamental wise, AMR is expensive for a coal stock unless met coal prices rise by a lot. Which is why I'm am not buying any dip recently.
Any idea what the reason for the AMR ATH was? I guess we're in one of the bad cyclical years? Cheaper today than a year ago.
Anyone here who followed me into HCC/AMR/AVUV that doesn't have real conviction--now is your chance to exit on the euphoria. (I'm staying around for a few more years, because I'm proudly long) $BTU is doing strangely well. Even though energy prices are puking and met coal is weak lately, this 60% thermal coal company is showing the best price action in months. I think it must be buybacks? I've held BTU since early 2023 and I'm up about 15% through today. So nothing impressive, but it's reassuring market seems to like it lately.
Of the stocks I still own from the last 3 years, my biggest total gains are AMD at 95% and... META at 235%. (AMR is probably 100%+ something but sold most of it so not counting it).
Isn't AMR an interesting buy currently? The price to FCF is around 4.15. seems pretty low. FCF/share 46.53 and price/share is 192.91. Been following your work. Appreciate if you could comment.
Still holding and I think the stocks are cheap. I sold out of AMR on the last surge and bought HCC around $55-56 earlier this year. I still think HCC will hit $120-150 within 3-4 years. It could be a year or more until there's a big turn in the market though with the china weakness. Most of the coal holders are just posting less recently as this sub doesn't offer much constructive feedback on it.
been charting AMR over on twitter for the last couple weeks and at 215 i pretty much called: AMR is cooked going to the 2nd purple box below if it doesnt recover ASAP. Chart looks ugly as fuck... you got another 20% down coming at least
Coal news: HCC to 50, AMR under 200, Glencore at 9.5. Our portfolios ded
Holding $HCC at $60 and $AMR and $240. HCC for the blue creek play in ~2026 and AMR as a general met coal play. A simply conservative dcf analysis tells me both are undervalued by quite a bit. Are people not buying those stocks really just because of ESG concerns and the perceived uncertain future of met coal?
Haven't you heard, coal is on the way out any day now.... However, $55 seems to be a really solid support for HCC. It's held several times now. AMR, on the contrary, is in a clear downtrend. HCC seems to be the name coal folks are accumulating.
What's your latest thoughts? AMR looking attractive, not too far away from 52 week lows. HCC has a slight pullback too.
AMR getting beaten up recently! ofc if you bought at $150 a share (or obviously $100 or less) you are still laughing
> AMR What's your reasoning? Bullish on met coal because of indian demand?
Well, my cost basis for HCC is around $55, so we agree. That said, I do realize it'll probably be a 2-3 year hold to realize the value coming off the new mine and there's a lot of variables in that timeframe. I think at this point AMR is basically a play on met coal prices while HCC has the catalyst of their new mine opening. HCC probably has more upside due to that. I don't own AMR anymore, but I used to and it's probably the best pure met coal name out there. I haven't followed them as closely since I sold out about 6 months ago in all fairness.
Matt Warder thinks $HCC at $50 and $AMR at $240 are strong buys. What do you think?
KKR owns AMR which is a private company taking over American emergency medical services
Anyone in met coal stocks (AMR, HCC) know why they dropped significantly today?
It's cheap on a 3 year timeline but macro is looking pretty shaky recently. I'm a bit surprised it hasn't fallen even more, unless market is looking past current gloominess. I'd still rather be in HCC than AMR though.
I don't know anything about them tbh but judging just from fundamentals: * HCC: 9 forward PE and EPS actually expecting to decline -28%. It is expected to rebound EPS in 2025 and grow 10% so right now looks like a solid time to start loading to boat if you believe in their comeback story and they can return to growing their bottom line * AMR: Same story - 10 forward PE and EPS expecting to decline -49.99% (woah thats a bad sign) but in 2025 they are expected to turn it around and grow their bottom line by 26%. If you think they will actually be able to turn around the company, it also seems like a solid pick No guarantee they hit their numbers btw. This is all just expectations for their earnings. It could end up on the worse/better side for all we know.
What's your opinion on HCC and AMR coal stocks?
Gotta say it's impressive how resilient the met coal equities are even as the spot pricing and near term futures meltdown. Suggests market is looking ahead from near term pain and expecting a stronger season once India enters the market. But the adjacent steel and iron markets look grim, and China is going balls-to-the-wall with steel production and flooding the whole world with capacity that they can't themselves absorb. It's really hard to be excited about the met coal macro. If China is weak the world is weak. You have to really be patient with $BTU and $HCC for their capex to materialize. $AMR on the other hand has no production increase so their bottom line will get hit no matter what. Overall I get the impression demand is weak for all 3, and supply is tight for premium met coal but it is loose for steel and about to become very loose with iron ore with Simandou. On the bright-side, if you're into bulk containers, perhaps Simandou could be a tailwind.
Yeah, I agree with you but since you said NVDA, AMR good. If the AI bubble pops, AMD, NVDA will not go unscathed. They will lose profit and customers.
Thanks I shorted/bought put on NVDA ASML AMR TSM TSLA
Thanks for the insight. I'm more inclined to hold my short position. I also work for a AMR startup and proving ROI to customers is difficult.
My dad won't sell his shares. Retired Pilot. They're not valued like DAL or UAL since the switchover from AMR parent company. It just depends how much the travel numbers are up or down, based on their last projections. That's where you'll see the change. Plus. I think they lag behind DAL/UAL like a week or two for earnings calls. Usually the travel season spans the industry.
Puts on fingers and houses, Calls on AMR
It's amazing what a week coal had (so far). AMR was in a slow descent, down to about $275. Mildly interesting. The at $330....not interesting at all, imo.
> What was / is your base case FV? Should someone who entered around $350 cut losses or hold? I don't give financial recommendations, but if I personally was in that camp, I would sell and rotate into HCC (perhaps on a dip). My fair value was always in the $350-500 range, and and I started selling once we entered that range. At that point the thesis is too dependent on met coal prices. At least with HCC you have a large expansion of production that will generate enough FCF to insulate from temporary downturns in met coal prices. I sold out my cost basis more or less and to derisk (AMR was once 6% of my portfolio), so anything left over is all gains.
You are mistaken, truly!! If you want to DM me we can exchange personal information if that will help? But got it I will go through your comment history thank you. Re: your other comment on AMR you said you think $450 is bullish. What was / is your base case FV? Should someone who entered around $350 cut losses or hold?
My position is only 25% of its original size but due to the gains it is still a pretty sizeable position for me. Of my coal holdings, 30% is in AMR, 30% in BTU, and 40% in HCC. AMR had the story mostly play out I think. It was stupidly cheap at $150, now it's near fair value at current met coal prices. Management was doing buybacks but they eased up a few months ago both to build cash and because the stock re-rated. I just don't see as much upside remaining vs. HCC because AMR is production capped. Sure, HCC is not doing the mega buybacks of AMR, but I'm willing to wait for them to finish their project. Then you get a triple whammy of higher production and buybacks.
## Daily Met Coal commentary: (Green steel fans, look away) Someone on Twitter [posted Goldman Sach's latest met coal cost curve](https://i.imgur.com/24Yt4T7.png). This graph breaks down at a company level what their total production is vs. their marginal cost. It's a bit tricky, so let's explain further. Suppose we pick the 90th percentile of production, as in, move along the x-axis until you have reached 90% of the current global production. Now move upward to the height of the bar. This is your 90th percentile marginal cost of $240. For any of the producers to the left, it costs them $240 or less to produce the next ton of coal. Equivalently, for all producers to the right (the last 10% of production), it costs them more than $240 for the *next* ton of coal. Using the 75th percentile and its height of $215, this implies 25% of producers (the ones to the right) must incur costs of at least $215 per ton on new production. So what does this imply if the price of met coal falls to say $215? It means 25% of producers find it unprofitable to increase their production anymore. Over time, labor costs + material inflation are pushing up the cost curve. E.g., if that $215 becomes $230, this means the price of met coal only has to $230 for 25% of producers to see new tons as unprofitable. Some of these company specific numbers are suspect, in my opinion, e.g. AMR. There is some details on which benchmarks are used by different companies, as well as seasonal or temporary discounts between different benchmarks. Also, keep in mind this is marginal costs, not total costs. What you want to do is pick companies that are low cost in production (to the left), realize prices as close to the premium benchmark as possible (not shown in this picture), are able to increase production (HCC and BTU, not AMR). Teck, for example, appears to be one of the lowest cost operators of met coal. Though some of these producers to the left aren't necessarily good investments because they aren't pure play met coal producers and also own various other assets. Some aren't even investible, e.g., Russian producers.
> I'm not saying there was 0 impact from the debate, but today's movement is more likely from the fire. I agree. Some pretty absurd gains from HCC and AMR.
It's amusing to me that I've been posting about met coal vs. thermal coal since ~late 2022 on a weekly basis, and often I wonder, "Should I clarify the difference? Surely people are getting tired of hearing obvious details." Only to definitely realize, yes, I should clarify. I'm sure there are a bunch of people who completely skip over my HCC/AMR comments because they think "Coal? In 2024? We have natural gas and solar!"
BTU has a met coal component. It's up less today than the pure play met coal producers like AMR and HCC. HNRG might be a Trump beneficiary, but I've been reading other things about them as well. Interesting value play actually. I'm not saying there was 0 impact from the debate, but today's movement is more likely from the fire.
[I posted earlier about the big met coal mining fire that happened this weekend](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1dr7equ/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_jun_29_2024/law2l62/). I was a bit uncertain how much this would tighten supply exactly, but AMR +14%, HCC +11%, BTU +6% (rounding up a touch) suggests this is indeed a pretty huge deal. As for Anglo, this means the value of their coal assets they're looking to sell off just lost a few billion dollars in value. Add in a microcap mooning, and my Roth IRA is having a wonderful day today.
I don't have a position in Anglo American, I have positions in HCC, AMR, and BTU, all of whom would *benefit* from a fire in an Australian Anglo-American mine!
$HCC is up 5-6% for some reason I'm unsure about (AMR/BTU only up 1-2% by comparison). Enjoying but uneasy about the CROX rally. I thought bubbles pop when they are full of holes.
One of there main holdings is in invision health that owns AMR the biggest private EMS company in the country and invasion itself owns hospitals ER wing
Agree that AMD,ARM etc is overvalued stocks but I think ARM will take some piece of PC market.Even dell decided to go with ARM and not AMD and DELL is not alone.More PC makers go with ARM at least for NOW.There must be something with AMR.NVDA wanted to buy ARM and INTC was against it.I am not saying that ARM will be leader and everyone will go with ARM instead of INTC or AMD,but I still think it will help to push price up…. Many companies were overvalued,then split happened so price is more realistic to revenue. I don’t really see problem with that.But it’s just me thinking this way.I don’t know nothing really.
We either bottomed or will within the next 1-2 months, as seasonal buying picks up from India. Talking about the Aussie PLV benchmark, which may differ from what is actually realized. Whether the equities follow in suit in a similarly timed manner is unclear, as some earnings may still be pretty bad depending on the company (due to inflated costs, exposure to thermal coal carnage, etc.) Not much has changed about my outlook on the coal companies. HCC is cheapest/best value for medium term, AMR is getting a bit rich (especially since buybacks are paused). I don't follow ARCH but apparently it's real bad earnings to come. BTU is... fine if you can make it to 2026.
Coal is mooning this morning. I guess small crap growth is pulling small cap value with it. HCC at ATH. BTU back in the 25s. AMR 325.
Random afternoon observations: - Late earnings season is such a minefield. It's mostly low quality companies too, so you see tons of -20% moves and +20% moves randomly, in often shitty companies like Foot Locker (+17%) or Kohl's (-24%). C3AI +17% (does anyone actually know what they do...?) Then there's Salesforce -20% lol. - Liking the move in SCV ETFs today. I have pretty large positions in them so +1.6% moves are actually pretty big impacts on my portfolio. - Seems like the AMR correction has stabilized. HCC has also been pretty resilient. Still think it's a better deal than AMR today. Always enjoy reading these daily interactions: "Am smol noob investor, what buy?" Regular(s): "What are you interested in? What are you familiar with? Any context? " "No". You wouldn't walk into a car buying subreddit and give 0 information about your budget, driving frequency, max number of passengers, location.
I think AMR benefits more from heightened global demand for thermal coal. Most of their revenue is generated from exporting it.
You can refer to all of these threads in the first section for background about HCC. The Jan 20th, Feb 26th, and April 27th are the most 'valuation' oriented ones. The March 6th and May 4th one are more big picture. My time horizon is roughly 3-5 years, unless a re-rating occurs earlier than anticipated. ** Thesis in a nutshell:** US-based, export-focused metallurgical (met) coal producer Warrior Met Coal (HCC) has the potential for significant earnings expansion and possibly multiple expansion due to the addition of a new mine called Blue Creek in 2026. Currently this future earnings growth is not priced in since investors demand buybacks now. As a consequence, peers such as AMR have done brilliantly compared to Warrior. Met coal is a crucial input into the production of steel, and there is no real alternative that can replace it at scale for a few decades (and certainly not during the time horizon I'm targeting). ## HCC Write-Ups - [January 20th, 2024 comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/19b8xon/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_jan_20_2024/kiyclgz/) on valuation and comparison to AMR - [February 24th update on Shanxi + some seasonal updates](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ayrgpy/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_feb_24_2024/krzk1tg/). - [February 26th, 2024 update](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b0edmp/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_feb_26_2024/ks9qtfw/) to valuation from January - [March 6th, 2024 commentary on longer term met coal demand](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1b7wi0e/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_mar_06_2024/ktoceo7/) - [April 27th, 2024 valuation update](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1ceai7b/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_apr_27_2024/l1l3ms8/). - [May 4th, 2024 comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1cjwedk/rstocks_weekend_discussion_saturday_may_04_2024/l2qga3a/) (On Teck's steelmaking presentation about long term met coal forecasts. More about HCC's coal quality)
It's actually a very reasonable portion of my portfolio, nothing I feel concerned about. Not like AMR when it was like 6-8% of my portfolio. It's mostly just that I'd feel pretty stupid if it fell 40% and wiped out my gains because the story suddenly slowed and valuation mattered again.
Check out $AMR from 2020, they went down to $2 only to soar back to $400. I’m not saying this name can put in such a move, but looks to be a good proposition here. Especially with people purposely trying to seek out these low floats.