CET
Central Securities Corporation
Mentions (24Hr)
0.00% Today
Reddit Posts
SyNBiotic - On the move (Germany's Cannabis/CBD leader)
LAES revenue increased 29% over FY 2022 and catalyst incoming next week
Banks look good at this point, and EWBC in particular
One year ago I turned 21 with $280'000, today I turn 22 with "only" $44'000. It was wild
Diamond in the Rough- $USB making a comeback 💎
Capital One Financial Corp (COF): A Deep Dive into Potential Bearish Indicators
PACW: Screwed or Not? A look at the numbers with help from Security Analysis (1934) (tldr $3.7 lots of risk)
Discussion about US Bancorp capital ratios (5th largest bank in the us)
PacWest Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividends | Pacific Western Bank
$MOR Strong day here as volume is escalating..earnings of late was a home run..
TD Bank & First Horizon Deal - Question about disclosure in Qtrly Statements
AT1 to CET1 evaluation after Credit Suisse crisis
Insolvency fears of Credit suisse group and will it cause a financial crisis in the world?
Adjusted CET1 capital ratio for unrealised losses
Do not bet against SCHWAB. 2023 Credit Rating A
Why did ASML stock drop 5% between 13:30 and 14:40 CET (Amsterdam time)?
I know its forex but I’ve bought USDCHF at 09:09 CET time for 0.93813. And my tp 0.94507 and sl at 50 EMA break. What did i’ve done wrong?
Banco di Desio (€BIT:BDB) The stock looks set to begin a long-term climb. Check a chart of 5 years.
Democratising Conscious Leadership at Scale
Investing in perpetual bonds is risky! Here's a write-up about how AT-1 bonds issued by an Indian bank are worthless even after intervention from the courts
TBLI Talk: Forcing the issue: An ESG frontline practitioners’ perspective
How I ended up making over 520K in two weeks.
Credit Suisse CDS hit record high as shares tumble
ECB hikes rates by 0.5%, higher than 0.25% expected.
Benchmark Increases Overall Gold Ounces by 44% and 77% in the Measured & Indicated Classification with Expanded Mineral Resource Estimate Further Derisking the Gold-Silver Project
DAX plunges over 200 pts in premarket ahead of data
DAX plunges over 350 pts as ECB warns of future rate hikes
Are you ready to unravel the Mysteries of Dataverse with Unmarshal Founder Manohar?
Deutsche Bank (DB.US) Q1 net profit hit a nine-year high, investment banking revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, is DB worth investing?
Hydrogen, solar, wind can generate a lot of energy. But where to storage these big amounts for long time?
It runs! It’s a high that this stock is experiencing this year. At the moment, however, there is nothing to suggest that the title is overrated.
It runs! It’s a high that this stock is experiencing this year. At the moment, however, there is nothing to suggest that the title is overrated.
news today that an downstream Australian graphite producer has listed on Frankfurt Stock Exchange is available to global investors. Graphite is set to be the hot battery material for 2022. The company is International Graphite (ASX: IG6; FSE: H99)
Sberbank, Gazprom, and Lukoil websites are blocked. FINRA halts trading in $SBRCY, $OGZPY, and $LUKOY, seeks more information from companies following economic sanctions on Russia.
The predicted market crash... Can it get any worse? well, yes!
Pattern on polish coal company (WSE:JSW next 21st feb)
Pattern on polish coal company (WSE, JSW.PL) on america free holidays (next 21st feb)
in case you were curious about how frothy it's gonna get: Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test 2021: Supervisory Stress Test Results June 2021 - super duper. 💎🙌🏼
We are being hosted for an AMA today at 14:00 in Delta Hub Capitals Discord! 🚀
You can still buy Tom2 stocks at a low level before the launch of TomTom IndiGO tomorrow
Yes retards. Stars, planets and rockets are aligning for a splitty split on 12/9
NEL ASA (Hydrogen) is back! 8:00 CET EARNINGS CALL -> 9:30 CET + 10,00 % 🌡
NEL ASA (Hydrogen) is back! 8:00 CET EARNINGS CALL -> 9:30 CET + 10,00 % 🌡
Why did Citadel give Melvin the money and not RobinHood?
Balmoral increases their offer for Petroteq to 0,83 eur, currently at 0,14. Decreases minimum amount to 550k. They want 100M shares
Petroteq (FRA:PQCF) (TSV:PQE) (OTCPK:PTOG) offer by Balmoral investment at 0,66 eur per share.
Federal Reserve Board announces the individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1
⚡️Fanadise ($FAN)⚡️ Lunching Soon | HUGE PLAYER IN NFT | Staking | IDO | New BSC Gem | Fast growing comminity
Just had an email from DEGIRO on how to vote there. Sharing it with you apes.
Atari® Partners with ICICB Group and Grants Licensing Rights to Build Atari Hotels in Dubai, Gibraltar, and Spain
Sustainable Farming Innovator Solectrac Delivers E-Tractor to First Hawaii Customer
How to Get Fee Discount(30% off) at Coinex?
Mentions
Went short nasdaq 2 am CET ... Easiest 5K of my life. Was obvious market would dump.
u/9tacos u/crazyyimmy >3 massive bubbles: credit, housing, and equities - all at records and existing simultaneously. >Probably nothing :4271: >oh man, where's that cock wanker Lost-Practice-5916 >lets get his stupid take on this Here's my take on this. Ofc my take is the "stupid" one of the cock wanker lol even though I actually back it up. CREDIT - it's not a bubble at all. Bonds got fucking destroyed last couple years. How can it a bubble when we've already had one of the largest corrections in bonds? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1q How can it be a bubble when there's extremely little risk of default and the system is FLUSH with increasing reserves? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1t Credit would only be inflated if the system was about to implode. Not when conditions are easing, banks have been stress-tested to withstand **40% declines in real estate prices,** have stupidly high CET ratios and deposits are steadily rising again. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx2c HOUSING - calling it a bubble is a complete joke. While inventory is easing a LITTLE bit, there has been obscene undersupply of homes. These are just facts. But how do we know this? There's tons of data suggesting this. Vacancies are extremely low. **Only time lower????** Stagflation 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1D https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1F How about looking at raw # of families divided by total homes? Well, 2008 really did a number on us and we basically underbuilt for an entire decade+: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1P EQUITIES - I don't even want to spend too much time on this because it's already debated endlessly. But bottom line, everyone that says equities are "overvalued" want APPL at 10 P/E. It's not fucking coming back. Ever again. We have an entirely different monetary policy framework known as Ample Reserves. We also recognize the importance of having SOME inflation. It creates policy space to cut BEFORE mass layoffs and crisis. It's good to have the system have ample liquidity. It functions much better that way. It also discourages hoarding of cash which does absolutely nothing to grow the economy. * Prior era multiples reflect - post capital destruction and capital scarcity, and high tail risk. That doesn't mean black swans are impossible. But credit based black swans will almost be non-existent now. SVB, First Republic, Signature could easily have spiraled into GFC 2.0. But Fed printed about half a trillion and we resumed like nothing happened... All with rising real incomes and cooling inflation. Yes, **money printing doesn't work in theory but it works in practice**. * Long-term FFR is 2.5% with targeted inflation likely around 2-3%. With that in mind, multiples today are more than fair. The game will be much, much more competitive going forward. As Munger said, the low hanging fruit is gone. There's a lot of smart people out there looking at the same opportunities. Tons of information accessible. So we really only have two choices. Accept that high multiples are fine, don't seem to be inflationary or pose any real problem. Or to make stocks cheap again through the destruction of capital and forcing asset deflation, while standing by doing nothing. This will lead to significant suffering. Do we actually want that? I don't think we do.
I’m assuming 2 am ET bc that’s 8 am CET and it said “before EU markets open”
ASML tomorrow 7am CET, they make the machines that make chip, TSM biggest customer TSM Thursday pre open, they make the chips, NVDA biggest customer We could see a chain effect if both beat, which is super likely (if you AI we are at the start of the AI revolution, and not in the “it’s overvalued and priced in camp)
Tomorrow 7am CET (ASML reports)
Implied move on ASML reporting 7am CET is 7%, if they report a positive surprise, expect a huge green day. Notice also NVDA has been trading super light (volume) in the last few sessions, so might ignite super quick. Anyways GL tomorrow!
[$BAC](https://x.com/search?q=%24BAC&src=cashtag_click) **RESULTS: Q2** • Net interest income FTE $13.86B, EST $13.81B • Trading revenue excluding DVA $4.68B, EST $4.53B • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.74B, EST $2.8B • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.94B, EST $1.73B • Wealth & investment management total revenue $5.57B, EST $5.58B • Revenue net of interest expense $25.38B, EST $25.27B • Provision for credit losses $1.51B, EST $1.5B • Return on average equity 9.98%, EST 9.57% • Return on average assets 0.85%, EST 0.82% • Return on average tangible common equity 13.6%, EST 13.1% • Net interest yield 1.93%, EST 1.95% • Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 13.5%, EST 13.5% • Standardized CET1 ratio 11.9%, EST 11.9%, - Compensation expenses $9.83B, EST $9.77B • Investment banking revenue $1.56B, EST $1.45B • Net charge-offs $1.53B, EST $1.45B • Loans $1.06 trillion, EST $1.05 trillion • Total deposits $1.91 trillion, EST $1.93 trillion • Efficiency ratio 63.9%, EST 64.2%, - Non-interest exp
It will go sideways during europoor opening hours, we'll se what's what at 15:30 CET, I'm bearish right now. Fuck bears BTW.
Bank Financial Data UNION CTY SVGS BK NJ Assets: $1,446 million AFS+HTM Loss: -$260 million CET1 Capital: $151 million HTM Loss: $0 million AFS Loss: -$260 million (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital: -172.7% CITIZENS ST BK TX Assets: $1,412 million AFS+HTM Loss: -$198 million CET1 Capital: $163 million HTM Loss: $0 million AFS Loss: -$198 million (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital: -121.4% GREEN DOT BK UT Assets: $4,414 million AFS+HTM Loss: -$393 million CET1 Capital: $362 million HTM Loss: $0 million AFS Loss: -$393 million (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital: -108.6% FIRST AMER TR FSB CA Assets: $5,947 million AFS+HTM Loss: -$709 million CET1 Capital: $681 million HTM Loss: $0 million AFS Loss: -$709 million (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital: -104.0%
UNION CTY SVGS BK NJ 1,446 AFS+HTM Loss (Millions) -260 CET1 Capital (Millions) 151 HTM Loss (Millions) 0 AFS Loss (Millions) -260 (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital -172.7% 2 CITIZENS ST BK TX 1,412 AFS+HTM Loss (Millions) -198 CET1 Capital (Millions) 163 HTM Loss (Millions) 0 AFS Loss (Millions) -198 (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital -121.4% 3 GREEN DOT BK UT 4,414 AFS+HTM Loss (Millions) -393 CET1 Capital (Millions) 362 HTM Loss (Millions) 0 AFS Loss (Millions) -393 (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital -108.6% 4 FIRST AMER TR FSB CA 5,947 AFS+HTM Loss (Millions) -709 CET1 Capital (Millions) 681 HTM Loss (Millions) 0 AFS Loss (Millions) -709 (HTM+AFS) Loss to CET1 Capital -104.0%
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ES goes down a bit around 10am CET then Vs up till spx opens
At 16:00 CET, don't know the time for the us tho
good luck explaining to the taxpayer how to backstop the 3.200.000.000.000 $ balance sheet of Bank of America (thats the 60% loss-of-CET1 on the far right of chart) 
What to look for in banks in my opinion: * High ROTE. Many banks struggle to find ways to deploy capital. * High CET1 ratio vs peers and well capitalized. If things go south, you want your bank to be able to pick up the pieces of others. * Conservative loss projections. Look at their charge-offs and CECL provisions over many quarters. If they keep going up that means they don't have a good handle on risk. Especially important if they are heavy CRE. * Low funding costs. If they rely upon expensive deposits, CDs, FHLB loans, that situation may not improve for a long time.
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One graph is in percent, the other in value. Also possibly scaling shenanigans. Also time zone difference because one is an index of US companies (EST) other a EU ETF (CET).
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BioSenic Presents Successful Preclinical Data on Its ATO Drugs for Controlling Key Symptoms at the Systemic Sclerosis World Congress 2024 March 20, 2024 07:00 CET Preclinical data in a transgenic mouse model demonstrate beneficial effects on several clinical symptoms analogous to those observed in human systemic sclerosis. Findings may further support the future clinical program. Read more at: https://www.beursforum.be/viewtopic.php?p=67403#p67403
The ones I own are ADX (ER 0.62%): 13.82% annual total-return over 10 years, with a 6.81% distribution yield. I have had this fund since the 1990s. CET (ER 0.55%) GAM (ER 1.38% --this one is a bit high. I may unload it) TY (ER 0.46%) PEO (ER 0.64%) I also have some Nuveen bond CEFs some leverage bond CEFs have very high ERs --I would stay away from those. But there are lots of good options they do take more research for sure
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Buying NVIDIA calls at 09:00 CET (03:00 EST) was a dumb mistake........20% of my profits already out the window and more to follow
It is slowly going up rn CET
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The global launch of the INCB annual report will be live streamed on U.N. WEB TV beginning at 5AM EST, 11AM CET tomorrow March 5. In part, The International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) 2023 Annual Report analyses the global availability of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances for medical and scientific purposes and highlights the persistent disparities in access to medicines for the treatment of pain. https://www.incb.org/incb/en/news/press-releases/2024/media-advisory---global-launch-of-the-incb-annual-report-2023.html Last year the report included an 18 page report on the status of medical marijuana. Hopefully they will expand on that tomorrow.
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Now German vote 25min later: [https://www.bundestag.de/tagesordnung](https://www.bundestag.de/tagesordnung) 13:35 CET
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>The U.S. government is giving chip maker GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion in grants to build and expand facilities in New York and Vermont, the first major award in a program that aims to reinvigorate domestic chip production. GlobalFoundries is currently (14:43 CET) up 7.72% in pre market
NYCB bull Good evening gentlemen, NYCB thesis: \- The credit market will do the feds work this year, as rates taper the valuation on multifamily and office will increase (as cap rates reduce) decreasing LTVs and risk. \- Bullish on multifamily portfolio despite rent regulation. High occupancy multifamily portfolio (95%+)in supply constrained area with embedded value due to rent reversion, similar as seen in German market. This makes multifamily a typical acquisition for private credit/pension funds wanting 4.5% yield + 2% p.a growth to match liabilities. \- 95% of deposits are now insured. - The offices defaults are going to be run through the p&l. 4.7% average coupon isn’t too bad for these office owners. There are instances where it makes more sense for asset owners to default, 38% of loans are “criticized loans”. 61% avg LTV at current valuations is not obscene. \- From my understanding of the private markets, when dealing with asset valuers with PE and asset owners, it’s in no one’s interest to mark down values severely and valuers tend to smooth the valuation using future rate expectations. It may seem extremely frustrating if you are on the other side of the trade when valuers collude with banks and asset owners. - around $300m avg office loan expiries p.a for next five years. \- dividend cut preserved a lot of cash, with $17.5bn cash target for year end and 10%+ CET1 ratio (taking them from 8th in peer group to third), $12.5bn and counting as of now. - 30% of deposits are non interest bearing, 2.8% cost on all deposits. I believe the bank and asset values will benefit from Signature and Flagstars deposits. Risk (LTV) will reduce as asset values reprice from lower inflation and rates. Current chairman turned around Flagstar and I am bullish on warehouse lending as e-com penetration continues. $5.33 avg price. https://preview.redd.it/pyhjarg0cxic1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=145a639bc6e5f7c5e179070b7afb2012d9b6ce5d Pray for me friends, I hope this doesn’t age like milk.
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It's 10 am EST i think I've read which is 16:00 CET for me..
OTC… L&S trades (all in CET): Mo-Fr 7:30-23:00, Sa 10:00-13:00 and Su 17:00-19:00
**0.0836+0.0021** **(+2.5767%)**At close: 05:36PM CET Is there a reason why they're about to go bankrupt?
A pan-EU exchange would be nice to have, certainly. However I'm pretty sure it's not a PITA to trade across these exchanges since what matters most is the stocks you're willing to buy/sell and the fees associated with those. Also regular trading hours tend to be similar for the exchanges located in CET so that should not really be a problem either. I can imagine active traders might have a more difficult time, but for the rest of the folks it's not too bad, no?
Hard to say. In low interest rate environment, bank profits are limited. In high interest environment, the fear of default and recession looms. Here is what I wrote (to myself) on jpm: The last year of high interests rates resulted in higher NII (net interest income) so the EPS of 2023 is higher than 2024 as interests recede and things normalize. As a result, the growth rates for the next 3-5 years varies greatly, from -1% ( SA) to 1.5% (Valueline) to 3% (Yahoo finance). Besides NII normlization issues, the other risks are: — CET1 Base iii endgame, this new banking requirement for banks to shore up additional reserves could add 25% more reserves. This will mean, that banks will have to write less loans, impacting revenue. — Recession risks, in a recession, more reserves will be required, this will impact profitability, then business will be conservative and not borrow money, reducing bank revenues. — JPM boss says he is gonna sell his JPM shares in 2024.
I am focused on Banco Desio €BDB.MI or [€BDB.IM](http://xn--bdb-j50a.im/) for Bloomberg Profit 9 months: 226 mln Capitalization: 511 mln. CET1: 16,8% Check on bloomberg.
How we should measure the Bull case company is that a $7B market cap company SOFI got its bank license last year. In this same period it makes up 4% of all new checking accounts in America. Wells Fargo a $156B market cap company now only represents 3.5%. SOFI gives its customers a higher APY, a better platform than every big bank in America. All at the same time when the balance sheet is more furnished it will not have brick and mortar cost they eat up most of traditional bank profits. In the event that SOFI continues to take market share and does take market share it will be a 150B dollar bank and you will have missed over “profits” in its growing years. The bear case is very simple: SOFI holds a lot of risk in risky assets and in the event the banking environment gets worst their defaults will go higher. And unlike traditional banks SOFI doesn’t account for an allowance of defaults because it marks its loans at fair value. So although it doesn’t hold the risk that the smaller banks hold (fleeting deposits putting pressure on CET ratios and having to sell bonds that were marked at much lower rates for losses) its burden with the chance we go through a hard recession and didn’t account for an allowance of defaults. There’s also a chance that their loans get marked down on their balance sheet cause rates go higher (but when rates fall they will be sitting on gold as their loans originated after the rate increases).
Which, really, if that happens, your dollars are no longer worth anything anyway. In Q2 2023, Citi reported $2.4T in assets. Nominally, Lehman was $600B when it went under. Their CET1 capital ratio was 13.3% as of Q2, and they passed the Fed’s rather serious stress test along with the other GSIBs. I really am unsure of why so much risk is being priced into their shares? Their loan book is $600B, the magic BTFP that the Fed conjured up in a weekend ran to 1/6th of that whole total, so unless a full 20% of their loans are bad, how do they go to zero?
CFD he sounds a euro since he’s using CET
HBAN disclosures at the Barclay's Conference: Annual Deposit growth unchanged at 2-3%, Deposit beta at 40%. Capital ratios CET1 at 9%, looking for 10%. HBAN credit quality still performing well. Net charge off 20-30bps, still at low end of range. NIM expected to increase through the end of the year. Fixed collars hedging working well. Expense management controls driving better efficiency. Projected up 2-3% full year. Full year guidance on loan growth, fee revenues, unchanged.
But here is one for ya!!!!!! PEPE2 will have significant movement later today US CET because of certain capital movements by ca. 25 smaller Japanese equity firms trying to up turn the market price.
Very nice ER. Management seems to be on top of the situation. They managed to achieve a 10% CET1 ratio, and balance sheet repositioning is well underway. The only thing that leaves me nervous is the allowance for loan losses at 0.67%, or 0.94% adjusted, which seems a bit low. In any case, I don't see this going back to the low 30s, which is where my cost basis is.
Profit margins fell 5% in Q1, Jeremy Grantam uses profit margin and inflation to give the trend, now both are negative for stocks. anyway, As you talk of liquidity, do you agree with this? if money is based on central bank reserves held by commercial banks (liquidity) and G-sibs have a x14.3 leverage ratio\*, can one say that the maximum value of the economy or SP500 is reserves times this leverage? Currently banks have 3.175T of these reserves\*\*, but; •QT cancels some 80bn reserves each month\*\*\* •Tax income in September usually drains 200bn of reserves temporarily\*\*\*\* These two together would remove 460bn by end October, putting bank's reserves at 2.6T. Multiplied by 14.3 this makes 37T which was the current value of the SP500 at the end of June when it stood at 4450\*\*\*\*\* Will stocks trade sideways until this valuation ceiling is hit? When the SP500 hit this ceiling in August 2019, markets ceased to function until Fed intervened. \* "\[G-SIB\] CET1 risk-based capital requirements defined as a 4.5% minimum requirement + a 2.5% capital conservation buffer" https://www.bis.org/basel\_framework/chapter/LEV/40.htm?inforce=20220101&published=20191215 \*\*Reserves held by commercial banks https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLODLL \*\*\*(SOMA holdings are down 850bn since May '22. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/default.htm) \*\*\*\*Treasury general account: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN \*\*\*\*\*https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp\_500\_market\_cap
I know the canadian economy is smaller than the US amd your dollar is worth more than our monopoly money but betting against canadian banks is full-on regarded. You have to understand that these banks are the backbone of the entire canadian economy, along with the BOC. There are 30 domestic banks in Canada compared to 7000 in the US, 5-6 of which make up the large majority of the business. With this oligopoly there is little variation/fewer choices and less financial risk-taking/innovation, each of them have a vested interest in the others success as one falling will have terrible consequences for the others. Plus with fewer banks makes it easier to monitor and scrutinize, as opposed to only looking at those with over 250B caps. They are better capitalized than their US counterparts (look at CET1 ratios), if you read the recent financials its apparent that they are more than adequately preparing for a shit storm. Betting against entities that never missed a dividend and have existed longer than warren buffett x2 is like betting that the sun wont rise in the morning, which im sure some of you would do.
Both Keycorp and Com still have a risk of run due to their lack of liquidity as shown by their amount of losses based on CET1 capital, and the amount of depositors over the FDIC limit. Pretty much every other bank is within normal levels, including PACW and WAL.
Both Keycorp and Com still have a risk of run due to their lack of liquidity as shown by their amount of losses based on CET1 capital, and the amount of depositors over the FDIC limit. Pretty much every other bank is within normal levels, including PACW and WAL.
I finally found the HTM section of FRC's 10K last night (the first PDF I had wasn't text searchable). It puts them at about 35% losses in Q1 assuming the HTM amount and loss didn't change. It's not great but CMA / ZION / TFC / KEY / PACW are all in the same region and aren't dead yet. It's really the uninsured depositor % and liquidity coverage for those depositors that matters, and how easily scared out they are. The AOCI to CET1 ratio (or AOCI to CET1 minus AOCI used in some places) identifies some weakness but not the main risk. I need to look more closely into CMA / ZION. Zion has close ties to the (extremely wealthy) Mormon church so I don't see them failing despite the high AOCI loss ratio and 55% uninsured - although that doesn't mean the share price won't go down. I think preferred shares are a reasonable choice. I looked at PACW common's upside in another post and by my estimate it's only around $8 unless a huge amount of depositors come back. The common dividend will probably take a long time to restore. I have a mix of WAL / PACW preferred, common, and options (CSP / CC).
I’m a big fan of USB. They got beat up because they’re CER1 ratio fell from 9.7% to 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022. This was because of their purchase of Union Bank. Those branches are currently being converted to USB branches with a bunch happening next weekend (Memorial Day). This will expand their capital base and increase their CET1 ratio. They’ve already said that they’ll be back over 9% by Q4 of this year. I also believe that they’re currently adding deposits from other banks since they’re the 5th largest bank in the country and been labeled a systematically important bank and are to big to fail. Those are just my thoughts and opinions.
I read a painful amount of 10Qs for this. Some notes on the values: * Fuck press releases and investor summaries, they have the propaganda numbers. The SEC filings are much more detailed and honest. * I generally calculated unrealized losses as AOCI / CET1 capital. My Q4 values don't exactly line up with the original chart so I think Burry was probably including some other things. Some of the 10Qs were difficult to find the unrealized losses or uninsured depositor percentage in (or omitted altogether). * WAL / PACW are more recent as they released some values since May 3, most are Q1 (Mar31) values except for the banks that didn't make it that far * For EWBC I combined AFS and HTM unrealized losses * Zion didn't mention their uninsured % so I had to trust an article * For Keybank I used unrealized losses for AOCI * For RF I used stockholder equity as the CET1 value * For SoFi I used the holding co values * For SI I couldn't find the uninsured value so assumed 90% * FRC's AOCI values are really low, like consistently only -300M against 14.5B CET1. I couldn't find where they where hiding the rest of the losses on their balance sheet. * SIVB is so comically and tragically bad I excluded it so the chart would be better scaled to everything else. In my opinion this chart isn't actually that good for seeing the health of the banks. I think uninsured deposits % vs immediate liquidity as a % of uninsured deposits would give a much better idea of how many people are ready to bolt for the exits and how much it will affect the bank when it happens. My impression from all those 10Qs is that the banks were scared shitless by March (good) and have been improving liquidity, slowly reducing their unrealized losses, and started to look forward at how to deal with other risks like credit downgrades and further hikes, in addition to their existing asset-liability term mismatches. Many of them had significant reductions in uninsured depositor % too, so the most skittish uninsured depositors are already out. I think a lot of them are fairly priced given the circumstances and will be flat / slowly up for a while with occasional 5-15% dips on bad news with recovery over a few days. The ones with bigger drops like WAL still have some decent upside to them, especially on a dip. I am net long PACW / WAL.
I read a painful amount of 10Qs for this. Some notes on the values: * I generally calculated unrealized losses as AOCI / CET1 capital. My Q4 values don't exactly line up with the original chart so I think Burry was probably including some other things. Some of the 10Qs were difficult to find the unrealized losses or uninsured depositor percentage in (or omitted altogether). * WAL / PACW are more recent as they released some values since May 3, most are Q1 (Mar31) values except for the banks that didn't make it that far * For EWBC I combined AFS and HTM unrealized losses * Zion didn't mention their uninsured % so I had to trust an article * For Keybank I used unrealized losses for AOCI * For RF I used stockholder equity as the CET1 value * For SoFi I used the holding co values * For SI I couldn't find the uninsured value so assumed 90% * FRC's AOCI values are really low, like consistently only -300M against 14.5B CET1. I couldn't find where they where hiding the rest of the losses on their balance sheet. * SIVB is so comically and tragically bad I excluded it so the chart would be better scaled to everything else. In my opinion this chart isn't actually that good for seeing the health of the banks. I think uninsured deposits % vs immediate liquidity as a % of uninsured deposits would give a much better idea of how many people are ready to bolt for the exits and how much it will affect the bank when it happens.
They are very different. In 08, there were mortgage crisis due to bad credits thus created toxic assets. People were unaware of preserving savings or de risk by reducing their exposure to risky assets. Of course, it wasn’t so accessible to media compared to now with advanced social media. Plus, the big banks were not as resilient as now since they had worse balance sheets with lower CET1 and bad loans. We have seen a Covid and bank failures now. Former has created the awareness and the large companies have already taken actions with larger cash on hand, higher layoffs, reducing debts etc. People are always be very careful on purchasing houses and cars. Latter pushed it further and now the companies have delayed their expansion, even more layoffs, less risk investments to boost the operating margins. People are always extra conservative about their decisions on all investments. I would say the latest issue which was outflow from banks and investment firms wasn’t too concerning to me. Ya u will see lower AUM, more monopolies or FUD but like Peter Lynch said in his last interview:”This is the most expected, predicted recession.”
You are confusing solvency (which is measured by metrics such as CET1 ratios, which are by and large extremely strong by historical standards) and liquidity (for which banks used to rely on reserves, but now there are other methods for ensuring this, so reserve requirements are not required). Higher reserve requirements would hurt banks, as it would decrease their returns on assets.
Here’s an inverse summary of a statement made by PAC from Chatgpt that I sent my bro a little over a week ago. PacWest Bancorp has not provided an update on its strategic actions and recent developments. The planned sale of the $2.7 billion Lender Finance loan portfolio is not on track and is not expected to accelerate the company's CET1 capital ratio to over 10%. The company is not reviewing strategic options and has not been approached by potential partners and investors. PacWest has experienced significant deposit outflows following the sale of First Republic Bank, with core customer deposits decreasing since March 31, 2023. The company has not been executing a new strategic plan designed to maximize shareholder value by focusing on strengthening its community bank focus, growing its HOA business, exiting non-core products, and improving operational efficiency.
I think they will still hold treasuries because of how CET ratio is calculated.
FRC lost >50% of deposits, PACW is down what, 10%? And the CET1 remains completely fine? The FDIC cannot seize them. There would have to be another run.
They did not cut the dividend on the prefered stock, where i am getting now a 24% yield!!! Also the were transparent why they are cutting the common dividend: “Given current economic uncertainty, recent volatility in the banking sector and potential changes in regulatory capital requirements, we view reducing the dividend as a prudent step to accelerate our plans to build capital to CET1 of 10%+. " As a good Management they have to focus on long term value, which they do, given the current sentiment, with increasing their liquidity even more. If, however they would have been on the verge of insolvency they would have cut both dividends. So the dmall dividend for common shares and the high dividend for prefered is a very strong sign imo.
They lost more deposits - peaking at 20%, compared to WAL's 13%, and they remain down about 1.5x as much as WAL (though both have recovered some deposits). They have proportionally larger losses on securities. They have a slightly lower CET1, and if you subtract unrealised security losses the gap increases (with PACW being around 6% while WAL would be just under 8%). None of it is catastrophic though, and deposits are stable. Only other thing worth mentioning is management mentioned talks with potential buyers. That could just mean a regular acquisition where shareholders get bought out at a premium, or it could mean the situation is worse than the figures show and they may need to be absorbed and the common wiped out. I can't see from the numbers why that would be the case but the tone of the press release was not super reassuring.
## PACW Declares Dividend! My prefs are going to FLY ## PacWest Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividends Company Release - 05/05/2023 **LOS ANGELES, May 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PacWest Bancorp (Nasdaq: PACW) announced today that on May 3, 2023, its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per common share. The cash dividend is payable on May 31, 2023 to stockholders of record at the close of business on May 15, 2023.** **On May 3, 2023, the Board of Directors also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.4845 per depositary share on its 7.75% Fixed Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A. The dividend will be payable June 1, 2023 to stockholders of record as of May 15, 2023. The Series A depositary shares are traded on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange under the “PACWP” symbol.** **Paul Taylor, President and CEO, commented, “Given current economic uncertainty, recent volatility in the banking sector and potential changes in regulatory capital requirements, we view reducing the dividend as a prudent step to accelerate our plans to build capital to CET1 of 10%+. Our business remains fundamentally sound, and we will continue with our strategy to focus on our relationship-based community banking model.”** **As noted in our press release on April 25, 2023, our first quarter adjusted earnings excluding goodwill impairment and reorganization costs were $89.4 million, or $0.66 per diluted share. Consistent with past practice, dividend decisions are made by the Board of Directors on a quarterly basis based on the results of operations, current business conditions and the economic outlook.** **ABOUT PACWEST BANCORP** **PacWest Bancorp (“PacWest”) is a bank holding company headquartered in Los Angeles, California, with an executive office in Denver, Colorado, with one wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Pacific Western Bank (the “Bank”). Pacific Western Bank is a relationship-based community bank focused on providing business banking and treasury management services to small, middle-market, and venture-backed businesses. The Bank offers a broad range of loan and lease and deposit products and services through full-service branches throughout California and in Durham, North Carolina and Denver, Colorado, and loan production offices around the country. For more information about PacWest Bancorp or Pacific Western Bank, visit** [**www.pacwest.com**](https://www.globenewswire.com/Tracker?data=9ZywL7Y70XOSLREFub10slOrGVj8XC9gr2Pfzp1lJUQozN3EWBRlSd2OjBR6RLrGM9JgMmaKVWBk7FSRbaqgAw==)**.** **CONTACTS** **Kevin L. Thompson** Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer 303.802.8934 **William J. Black** Executive Vice President, Strategy and Corporate Development 919.597.7466
Official full source: https://www.pacwestbancorp.com/news-market-data/news/news-details/2023/PacWest-Bancorp-Announces-Quarterly-Dividends-c1460fd7b/default.aspx Preferred shares are getting paid out at $0.4845 that is more normal. Dividend cut is stated to meet their CET1 of 10%. Their update the previous Wednesday morning mentioned that target for next quarter so it isn't that bearish if this quarter's cut helps them hit that target: https://www.pacwestbancorp.com/news-market-data/news/news-details/2023/Pacific-Western-Bank-Issues-Update/default.aspx Who knows how the market will react. Puts IV was pricing in bankruptcy that looks less likely with them paying out money to preferred shares and the token penny dividend for commons. At the same time, dividend cuts are never positive news.
But their CET1 was only liquid because they maxed out their lending access to the FHLB on 19/19b. They were already eating into the discount window funds as well in Q1
1) they are expensive as its the hot trade. 2) bank shares are cheap. Not without a reason. Stick to mid cap regional with narrow/wide moat or TBTF banks. Risk of small banks is quite high 3) go for leaps of bank stocks with CET1 capital higher than 9 above 10 if preferrably (MtM). 4) if the bank is executing and/or repurchasing shares is also a good counter against shorts. (Buyback money works better with a cheaper stock which in long run improves financial metrics and keeps shorts away unless its suspended due to regulatory mandates) 5) avoid bank stocks with a strong concentration in a portfolio asset (see pacw) or long duration. Asset liability mismatch problems have been shown and I think this was a good wake up call for banks to prepare for a recession. At least balance sheet will be improved. 6) monitor duration of bonds and cash separated for bad loans. Those will hit earnings (extension risk and bad credit)
I believe BoA has an abnormally high level of AOCI (loss) on securities. Saw an infograph produced by another bank which put their CET1 around 4-5% if you were to subtract those losses.
SVB’s CET ratio was like 12 when they tried raising capital. I think their target was 15. They were not as bad off as you’re making them out to be. Their drawdown in deposits was absurdly rapid. I wasn’t expecting this last rate hike given the pressure on banking in general. Like you said, some big banks are really not looking healthy and that scares me.
I honestly don’t know enough about WAL or PACW, haven’t done the digging in those, but I think a sector scare is a good analysis. Looking on WeBull, there hasn’t even been a ton of outflows (although that is only one broker). Maybe exposure to other regionals such as through equities reducing capital. I do know though that a lot of the other regionals, like FRC had significant liquidity and capital issues, and people were trying to pump that up plenty here, even though it had 111% loan to deposit ratio, 50% unrealized losses of CET1 capital, and over 80% of depositors over the 250K threshold limit, yet many on this sub were claiming it was a “great bank”.
Isn't it the opposite? The median bank has 30% of its CET1 capital in unrealized losses, 60% of deposits above $250K
USB has a CET1 of 8.5% which is absolutely trash. And that's before AOCI. At some point soon, they are going to be a category 2 bank and will need cut the dividends and buyback, and possibly do a capital raise. Management thinks rising earnings will save them before it gets to that point. Lmao, okay. Its a trash bank and my outs are going to keep printing while marks keep mindlessly buying on the way down. Sure, it's likely not going to zero, but that doesn't make jt a good investment.
USB has. CET1 of 8.5% which is absolutely trash. And that's before AOCI. At some point soon, they are going to be a category 2 bank and will need cut the dividends and buyback, and possibly do a capital raise. Management thinks rising earnings will save them before it gets to that point. Lmao, okay. Its a trash bank and my outs are going to keep printing while marks keep mindlessly buying on the way down. Sure, it's likely not going to zero, but that doesn't make jt a good investment.
That's true but extremely misleading. Most banks are actually decently capitalized enough that if depositors withdrew they could pay everyone out at a massive loss. Enough to destroy the business but depositors would be made whole. SVB and FRC were actual solvency issues. Their CET1 ratios were already under stress if they had to sell their loans.
Has a CET1 ratio comparable to the largest banks in the country. 9.22% ​ [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1097633/cet1-ratio-large-banks-usa/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1097633/cet1-ratio-large-banks-usa/)
If First Republic has about $140b in risk weighted assets, this would mean they can absorb losses of approximately $6.748 billion before breaching the 4.5% CET1 ratio requirement…. So at a projected loss of $400m a qtr that would mean about a year and a half run way before a tier 1 breach… https://ir.firstrepublic.com/static-files/6da19021-2f8a-4752-812a-a615b6e4d063
Based on the provided information from the conference call, to recap, the minimum capital ratio requirements for banks under FDIC are: The bank's capital ratios are as follows: Tier 1 leverage ratio: 8.25% (This ratio is not a FDIC capital adequacy ratio; it's a supplementary measure of capital that compares Tier 1 capital to a bank's average total consolidated assets. It serves as a backstop to the risk-based capital ratios and ensures that a bank maintains a minimum amount of capital relative to its total assets.) Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 9.32% (Above the minimum requirement of 4.5%) Total risk-based capital ratio: 12.71% (Above the minimum requirement of 8.0%) The minimums before the Feds get involved are: Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio: 4.5% Tier 1 capital ratio: 6.0% Total capital ratio: 8.0%
USB is getting reallllly close to that COVID low. Their CET1 is absolute shit @8.5% and its going to get a whole lot worse when they become a category 2 bank. Management is over here talking about buy backs and issuing a ridiculously high dividend at the same time they are about to be desperate for additional capital.
But the Exchange has not been open since earnings report came out? Got it 22:30 last night CET, where NYSE is closed. How did you define that the selloff stopped at 12.5?
First Republic Q1 23 Earnings $FRC Revenue $1.209 bln vs. estimate $1.148 bln EPS $1.23 vs. Estimate $0.85 Deposits at end-period $104.47 bln, EST. $136.67 bln. Cutting workforce by about 20%-25% in 2Q. Net interest income $923 mln, EST. $889.9 mln. Net interest margin 1.77%, EST. 1.8% . Loans at end-period $173.31 bln, EST. $168.31 bln. CET1 Ratio 9.32%, Est. 8.84%.
Their CET1 ratio is 14.2%, it's a slightly below average CET1 ratio but it's not ''awful''. The minimum required CET1 ratio for a category II bank is 12% in Europe and Switzerland. What specific requirements do you say would make them become ''absolutely fucked''?
Their CET1 ratio is awful and if they were ever regulated as a Category II bank, they would be absolutely fucked. Given that they are the largest non-category II bank in the county, that is a very real risk. What's going to happen to that huge dividend they issue when are forced to scramble for more HQLA?
Wondering, If the e.g. CET1 below GSB wouldn't have to be hiked as many are at 7 or only slightly above and CS' chair repeatedly pointed out theirs at 14.1 on Bloomberg and high LCR, too. If so, that'd need quite some time and equity has become very expensive, wondering about alternatively some junior unsecured bonds which might be bail-in instruments and their costs and market, if even applicable for the U.S. as I focus more on european banks. Meaning, that growing sentiment as if SVB, SBNY and that winded down crypto Bank and CS would only or mainly have been idiosyncratic seems still a bit premature to me and the market with ultra low breadth reminding me of early 2000 and those very high PE's seems significantly overvalued to me. If Europe would enforce a local european banking union where all depositiors would be protected that'd sound like significantly increased moral hazard to me. https://youtu.be/3TuHS3t9f7k @ 04:04 min: CET1 of Top 15
I expect news tomorrow around 18h CET! Still time if you are from murica.
>EASTBOUND YAMAL-EUROPE GAS PIPELINE FLOWS AT MALLNOW EXIT POINT ROSE TO 803,360 KWH/H BETWEEN 0300-0400 CET -GASCADE DATA ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-04-09 ^22:24:40 ^EDT-0400
It is not run conservatively, their CET1 is below the minimum threshold if you deduct AOCI. That was the same method short sellers used to identify SVB
You still got c.85% of your capital you can save by closing this trade. Just take your loss and get out before you get nothing! FRC is going down. The treasury secretary already said they won't extend the deposit insurance to all banks and only do that on a case by case basis as they did for SVB after it failed. Your options if you hold from here are 3: 1. The shares keep going down until the bank's equity run out and the FDIC takes over - which means you get zero cents! 2. The shares keep falling down and FRC becomes so cheap that another big bank decides to purchase it for pennies (a similar case to Credit Suisse) - where you get pennies! 3. A miracle happens where interest rates fall and the bank's liabilities falls which puts the bank in a much better CET1 position - seems very unlikely given the high prevailing inflation. Even if that was to happen, FRC has lost public trust and deposits are likely to continue flowing out. So even if it survives, it won't reach the previous price levels anytime soon. Best of luck!
Because you have a long time horizon, I would suggest looking at the Closed-End-Funds (CEFs) with good distribution yields, low expense ratios, and good track-records. ADX: Adams Diversified Equity Fund 12% average annual return in last 10 years 7% current distribution yield (this can go up and down) 0.56% expense ratio has never missed a distribution payment since 1929 Others to look at would be: TY, GAM, CET, and USA Note: you would not dollar-cost average these, or reinvest dividends/distributions. You would put a lump sum in there, and maybe buy some additional shares once a year in the ETF world, SCHD is an excellent option Index funds are fine, but they can perform very badly in long-term, secular bear markets, like the period 2000-2012. Since you have a long time horizon, that shouldn't be a big issue
I don’t think it’s too late to buy First Citizens even after the run up. They essentially got $16.5bn in tangible net equity for nothing. Deal is structured with downside protection from FDIC over 7 years. FDIC is also plugging hole on funding for the loan book. It is stand alone accretive to CET1 capital. This deal more than doubled First Citizens lending portfolio and probably earnings as well. Etc etc Point is, First Citizens doubled in size and got paid doing it. Shares should go a lot higher from here.