CET

Th1rt13n

It’s on 24th CET

Pretty_Ad_7885

what gay ass, stock exchange are you using? It is currently 8:30 am in CET. Almost all markets are closed

Calm_Evening_4534

1. The Bomb: The 2008 "DTA" Legacy During the 2008 financial crisis, Citi lost tens of billions of dollars. In the world of accounting, a loss isn't just "gone"—it creates a Net Operating Loss (NOL). Citi was allowed to keep these losses on their books as Deferred Tax Assets (DTAs), essentially a promise from the government: "Whenever you eventually make money again, you don't have to pay taxes until you've used up these old losses."  • The Problem: As of late 2025, Citi is still carrying roughly $25–$28 billion in these tax assets. • The "Regulatory Weight": Regulators (under Basel III) hate DTAs because you can't use a "tax promise" to pay back depositors during a bank run. Therefore, if the DTA gets too big relative to the bank's actual cash (Equity), regulators force the bank to deduct it from their capital. 2. The Fuse: The Credit Card Portfolio Citi is one of the world’s largest credit card issuers. This is their "high-yield" engine, but it’s also the most sensitive to economic heat. • The Burn Rate: Currently, Citi’s credit card loss rates are "normal" (around 3.5%–4.0%).  • The Heat: If unemployment (U-6) spikes to 9% or 10%, that "burn rate" accelerates. This is the fuse. As long as the economy is cool, the fuse just smolders. But if defaults jump toward 8% or 10%, the fuse starts racing toward the main charge. 3. The Detonator: The "Valuation Allowance" (Note 9) This is the mechanical link that turns a "bad year" into a "blown-up bank." Accounting rules (ASC 740) state that if a company thinks it is "more likely than not" that they won't be profitable enough to use their DTAs, they must trigger a Valuation Allowance.  The Detonation Sequence: 1. Stage 1: 20% of credit card users default (The Fuse reaches the end). Or PE unravels, or some other black swan event takes place. 2. Stage 2: Citi reports a massive $30B quarterly loss. 3. Stage 3 (The Detonator): Because of that massive loss, accountants are forced to say, "We clearly aren't profitable right now, so we must write down the value of our $28B in DTAs." 4. Stage 4 (The Explosion): Citi takes a non-cash charge to "Note 9." This doesn't just lower earnings; it vaporizes regulatory capital (CET1). 4. Why the Bomb Destroys the Stock When that DTA "detonator" goes off, Citi’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio—their ultimate safety metric—would likely plummet from 13.2% to below 8% in a single day. • Automatic Halts: At that level, the Fed legally must stop Citi from paying dividends or buying back shares. • The "Death Spiral": The market sees the capital hole and realizes Citi needs to raise cash. But no one wants to buy stock in a failing bank, so the stock price collapses from $111 toward $30 strike price as investors flee. • Insolvency: If the write-down is big enough, the bank becomes "technically insolvent," meaning its liabilities outweigh its actual usable capital.

Gulliveig

Typically 2 pm ET (20:00 CET).

Hybridisthebest

CET bitch

Fantastic-Strategy76

By Markus Kasanmascheff November 21, 2025 10:17 am CET Sam Altman GPT-5 Release Manage all AI prompts from one structured library with WinBuzzer Prompt Station. Use prompt-chains, prompts, text insertions with ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, AI Studio, Mistral. With versioning, export/import, hotkey access, bookmarks-bar support, and many more features. Just days after Google reclaimed the AI performance crown with Google’s Gemini 3 Pro launch, internal remarks from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have emerged where he conceded the company is facing “rough vibes” and “economic headwinds.” According to The Information, a leaked memo from last month starkly contrasts with Altman’s public trillion-dollar ambitions. He reportedly warned employees that revenue growth could plummet to single digits by 2026. Altman acknowledged to the OpenAI team that “Google has been doing excellent work recently in every aspect,” particularly in pre-training. Such an admission marks a pivotal shift for the (maybe former) industry leader, acknowledging that a resurgent rival and cooling enterprise demand have shattered its aura of invincibility. Following our report on the release of GPT-5.1-Codex-Max, which apparently attempted to counter Google’s momentum, this internal communication reveals a far more anxious reality behind the scenes. While the company publicly projects confidence, the reported memo exposes deep concerns about sustaining the hypergrowth that has defined its trajectory. The End of “Invincibility” Altman’s message marks a rare moment of vulnerability for a CEO known for his relentless optimism. He explicitly described the current atmosphere as having “rough vibes,” a departure from the triumphalism of its 2025 DevDay. Dominating the admission is a concern over technical leadership. Acknowledging Google’s resurgence, Altman conceded that OpenAI is now in a position of “catching up fast” and needed to focus on “very ambitious bets” even at the cost of getting “temporarily behind in the current regime.” Independent benchmarks align with this view, showing Gemini 3 Pro leading GPT-5.1 in reasoning and coding tasks, effectively neutralizing OpenAI’s long-held “moat.” “We need to stay focused through short-term competitive pressure,” Altman reportedly wrote in the memo, adding that it was “critically important” for the majority of the research team to stay focused on achieving superintelligence. Employees reportedly reacted with a mix of anxiety and appreciation for the transparency, though the reported admission of “we are not invincible” has rattled confidence. Rumors of a hiring freeze have begun circulating internally, adding weight to the memo’s warning of a more disciplined operational phase. Serving as a psychological reset for staff, the document moves the company from a “default winner” mindset to a wartime footing. OpenAI is reportedly working on a new language model codenamed “Shallotpeat” is currently in development. A person familiar with the matter said this model specifically aims to fix bugs emerged in the pre-training process. Altman concluded the note by urging focus, admitting that despite the company’s massive valuation, “we know we have some work to do but we are catching up fast.” The Financial Cliff: From Hypergrowth to Stagnation Most alarming for OpenAI is a revised revenue forecast that projects growth could slow to a pedestrian 5-10% by 2026 in a “bear case” scenario. Such a figure wouldrepresent a catastrophic deceleration from the triple-digit growth rates that drove revenue to $13 billion in 2025. Altman attributed this potential slowdown to factors that would “create some temporary economic headwinds for our company,” though the structural nature of the issues suggests they may be long-term. These projections cast a harsh light on the company’s burn rate, specifically the recently revealed forecast of a projected $74 billion operating loss by 2028. With profitability previously dismissed by Altman as “not in my top-10 concerns,” the sudden focus on “economic headwinds” signals a pivot to fiscal reality. A disparity between the five-year plan to bridge the gap and a potential 5% revenue growth rate creates a massive solvency risk. Investors, previously willing to fund indefinite losses, may balk if the “hypergrowth” narrative collapses before the infrastructure is built. Addting to the pressure, competitor Anthropic is on a cautious path to break even by 2028, focusing on enterprise customers, while OpenAI projects a dramatic $74 billion operating loss that same year, The Enterprise Reality Check Far from the triumphalism that characterized early adoption, the memo identifies a contraction in the AI hype cycle as a primary driver of the slowdown. This validates growing skepticism about the durability of the current boom. Specific partners were named as indicators of this trend, with Microsoft reportedly delaying Azure AI integrations due to capacity constraints at Azure and ROI questions. Salesforce was similarly cited for scaling back its custom GPT pilots, a move that mirrors broader industry struggles to move GenAI from prototype to production. Recent data corroborates this, with reports indicating that 95% of enterprise pilots fail to launch, leaving expensive “shelfware.” Such a pullback directly impacts the “picks and shovels” thesis; if software demand softens, the need for massive compute infrastructure evaporates. Warnings from analysts like Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shallet echo this sentiment, noting that “hyperscaler capex on data center and related items has risen fourfold and is nearing $400 billion annually” without a commensurate revenue return. Despite this, OpenAI leadership remains committed to the “compute is king” philosophy, with President Greg Brockman previously stating “I’m far more worried about us failing because of too little compute than too much.” Clashing between this “build it and they will come” strategy and the reality of slowing adoption defines the company’s current existential crisis. TAGSAI Arms RaceAI BubbleAI ComputeAI Compute Arms RaceAI InvestmentArtificial Intelligence (AI)Big TechChatGPTCorporate StrategyEarningsEnterprise AI AdoptionFinancial ProjectionsGemini 3GoogleGoogle GeminiGreg BrockmanHiring FreezeOpenAIRevenue GrowthSam AltmanShallotpeat

musiro77

On CET so Paris time I know that options expire at 5:30 EST right ?

Upbeat-Aioli7337

📅 **Event:** Financial report tomorrow at **14:30 CET** 💼 **Catalyst:** Announcement on a **new €5 billion commercial agreement** 📊 **Updated Short Interest Data** * **Short Interest:** 60,873,914 shares *(source: NASDAQ)* * **Short Interest Ratio (Days to Cover):** 5.86 * **Short Interest % Float:** 47.30% *(source: NASDAQ / Capital IQ)* * **Off-Exchange Short Volume:** 2,387,471 shares *(source: FINRA — incl. Dark Pool)* * **Off-Exchange Short Volume Ratio:** 50.56% 🔥 Nearly **half of the float is shorted**, and with a **major €5B deal** on the horizon, volatility could skyrocket. All eyes on **14:30 CET** — this could get wild. 👀 💬 Thoughts? Are we looking at a real squeeze setup or just pre-report hype?

Desperate_Gift8350

That's me when I gamble SPX/NDX 0DTEs💀💀💀 15.30 CET +500 15.31 -1700 15.32 -90 15.33 -2700 15.34 +5000 lemme how high it can go 15.35 -7000 goddamit  21.59 -600 yeah at least it ain't 7k, I'll take it

Amaterasux21

SoFi’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call is scheduled for Tuesday, October 28, 2025 at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (14:00 CET/13:00 BST/09:00 BRT/05:00 PT).

Schoeddl

There is a good reason, because the bubble will burst a little later due to the FED's larger balance sheet total today, exactly on February 5, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. CET. But there is still an enormous boost before the burst, and you should take it with you so that you can short heavily on February 4th, 2026 at 3:00 p.m. CET. With the right timing, you can easily turn $10,000 into $1 million!

Total-Base7493

trading halted as of right now, 15:35 CET

Mplayer1001

Alright so lawmakers are expected to release a plan to lower capital requirements to 8% as per the article. This would be a return to the norm before Basel III, which means the statement “less capital requirements” a a change after the GFC is already false. Moreover, it doesn’t address that Basel III introduced stricter requirements for different capital classes, such as the highest tier CET1 capital being 4.5%, a requirement which literally didn’t exist even prior to Basel III. I’m all for financial regulations. I’ve written a thesis defending it. But there’s no need to spread mis/disinformation about it to get your way

Jerikolol

the ER is not until 15:00 CET/9AM ET. Dont worry, the CEO will crash it for you (he also has puts)

Few_Bathroom1593

Okay now I know this is super old thread but not able to find enough on reddit. Stock is up like 60% YTD, now still looks super inexpensive. Let's have a discussion going **Ultra Worst-Case (Maximum Pain):** * Base Russia write-off: €3.5 billion * Additional legal/regulatory costs: €850 million * **Total maximum loss: €4.35 billion (23.1% of equity)** * Remaining equity: **€14.45 billion** # Capital & Debt Obligations **Capital Ratios After Write-Off:** * Current CET1 ratio: 18.2% * **Post-writeoff CET1 ratio: 15.9%** (still well above 7% regulatory requirement) * Tier 1 capital would drop from €16.8B to €12.45B * **Bank remains strongly capitalized** **Debt Obligations:** * Total key debt: **€26.6 billion** * Subordinated debt: €2.1B * Deposits from banks: €8.9B * Debt securities issued: €15.6B * Post-writeoff debt-to-assets: **16.4%** * Equity-to-debt coverage: **54.3%** * **All debt obligations remain fully manageable** # Liquidity Stress Test **Deposit Coverage:** * Total customer deposits: €152 billion * Remaining assets (ex-Russia): €162.5 billion * **Deposit coverage ratio: 106.9%** \- adequate but tight * No immediate liquidity crisis

Odd-House5205

**Nyxoah Receives Approval from FDA for Genio® System for the Treatment of Obstructive Sleep Apnea** **U.S. Commercialization Officially Launched** **Mont-Saint-Guibert, Belgium – August 8, 2025, 10:10pm CET / 4:10pm ET – Nyxoah SA (Euronext Brussels/Nasdaq: NYXH)** (“Nyxoah” or the “Company”), a medical technology company that develops breakthrough treatment alternatives for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) through neuromodulation, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the Genio system for a subset of patients with moderate to severe OSA with an Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) of greater than or equal to 15 and less than or equal to 65.

Odd-House5205

**Nyxoah Receives Approval from FDA for Genio® System for the Treatment of Obstructive Sleep Apnea** **U.S. Commercialization Officially Launched** **Mont-Saint-Guibert, Belgium – August 8, 2025, 10:10pm CET / 4:10pm ET – Nyxoah SA (Euronext Brussels/Nasdaq: NYXH)** (“Nyxoah” or the “Company”), a medical technology company that develops breakthrough treatment alternatives for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) through neuromodulation, today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the Genio system for a subset of patients with moderate to severe OSA with an Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) of greater than or equal to 15 and less than or equal to 65.

jukil1

If its the stock market you referring to, FluoGuide (FLUO) trades on Spotlight Stock Market in Stockholm. You’ll need a broker with Nordic access (like IBKR or Saxo). Trading hours are \~09:00–17:30 CET (3:00–11:30 AM EST). https://preview.redd.it/uikl6dlvbyef1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a294cc2ef6cd139671ee411343f8a7a4b5bec5a6

fre-ddo

Sounds like a bit of a shitty website because trading stops at 4pm EST (US time), and exercising goes on to 530 so the price movement between 4 and 530 can affect your returns. 12:00 Middle European Time is before the trading closes so yes you will benefit from the price movement between 12 CET and 1130pm CET. Always close it before it expires or you may end up with 100 shares, but if the price moves down before you can sell them you lose potential profit. The broker may also sell them straight away and give you the difference which can have fees, and depending when they sold them the price could have changed from end of trading..

cxr_cxr2

It’s CET time. Sorry I’m from Europe

RussoSwerves

Right, so the Dax after the European market does whatever it does between 9 - 9:30 am CET basically just gets strung along by the S&P 500 and its movements.

StarsOverTheRiver

Made 6k🥰 I'll trade next week as I used all of my luck today❤️❤️ Goodnight(CET) fellow degenerates

StarsOverTheRiver

I can see it tbh It'll go up the entire day then drop to 589 or some shit So, Calls till 17.30CET Puts at 20.30CET Calls 2159CET All on SPX of course

Wingiex

What happend that warrented the dip in the EU markets at around 15:00 CET??

Crazeefoolz

Spy now 592 premarket but at 9am CET it was at 596

harrison_wintergreen

>That's what they thought before the great depression. it's interesting how every generation needs to re-learn the same lessons. There were a bunch of highly levered closed-end funds that got wiped out in the Great Depression. The ones that survived and still exist, such as ADX or CET, used little or no leverage.

twitterfluechtling

Nah... DAX will plunge expecting a global crisis, recover a bit over the day (CET) and recover faster after DOW starts more or less neutral. (I'm guessing, like 2nd-beer-in-the-pub talk, not actually confident enough to put money on it.)

Shadowthron8

After searching in ChatGPT “An analysis by Florida Atlantic University identified several regional banks with unrealized losses exceeding 50% of their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital, indicating substantial vulnerability:  • Union County Savings Bank (NJ): Unrealized losses at 157.6% of CET1 capital. • Citizens State Bank (TX): 127.6% of CET1 capital. • Green Dot Bank (UT): 101.5% of CET1 capital. • CB&S Bank (AL): 89.4% of CET1 capital. • Independence Bank of Kentucky (KY): 89.2% of CET1 capital”

momsickle

It is highly unlikely that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will announce an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, 2025. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to maintain the current federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with CME Group’s FedWatch Tool assigning a 99% probability to a rate hold.   Despite President Trump’s public pressure for immediate rate cuts, the Fed is expected to maintain its current stance. The central bank is adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, awaiting more definitive signs of economic slowdown or inflationary pressures before adjusting rates. Recent data shows a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1, but also a robust April jobs report with 177,000 jobs added, indicating a mixed economic picture.   Looking ahead, the Fed may consider rate cuts later in the year, possibly starting in July, depending on how economic conditions evolve. However, for now, the central bank is expected to keep rates steady and monitor incoming data closely.  The Fed’s decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EST (8:00 p.m. CET) on May 7, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST (8:30 p.m. CET).  PUTS AT CLOSE

Moddingspreee

Yep, received them this morning (CET), both the 2 euro and the 1 euro per share dividend

stevenryl866

ITRM - I’m expecting buyout news between April-May. Possible of it before their Q1 2025 earning call which historically between 12-15 May. My biggest and only bag close to 3 months. MBOT - FDA 501k approval between May-June, recent addition of Vice President of Sales indicates on the company *for sure* getting the approval! MVTA - May 7 catalyst, low float. MetaVia Inc. (Nasdaq: MTVA), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on transforming cardiometabolic diseases, today announced that an abstract highlighting data from its Phase 2a clinical trial of DA-1241, a novel G-Protein-Coupled Receptor 119 (GPR119) agonist, in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), has been accepted as a late-breaking poster presentation at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Congress 2025, taking place May 7-10, 2025 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Session : Late breaker posters Presentation Start: May 7, 2025 8.30am CET ABEO - FDA outcome April 29th, either approve or deny the drug.

stopdontpanick

He's set to at half past of this coming hour (5:30pm EST, 10:30pm BST, 11:30pm CET)

heartbleed_hack

ECB rate decision at 2:45 CET (8:45 est for ameripoors)… watch em not cut to back Jpow like bank of Canada did

Square-Statement5378

Ow not available in my region (CET)

Jerikolol

ASML earnings tomorrow at 7am CET. Analysts are expecting earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $6.12 and revenue around $7.90 billion. So this will make or break all the semiconductors tomo right? which in turn will make or break the rest of the SP500? Then add some more volatility if mangoo decides to talk about semiconductor exemptions and/or tariffs.

TeflPabo

$JPM EPS: $5.07 (Est. $4.65); UP +14% YoY Managed Revenue: $46.01B (Est. $44.39B); UP +8% YoY Provision for Credit Losses: $3.31B (Est. $2.70B); UP +75% YoY Net Reserve Build: $973M Net Income: $14.64B; UP +9% YoY ROE: 18% ROTCE: 21% CET1 Ratio (Std.): 15.4% Book Value per Share: $119.24; UP +12% YoY Tangible Book Value per Share: $100.36; UP +13% YoY Outlook: SEES FY NET INTEREST INCOME ABOUT $94.5B, SAW ABOUT $94B Capital & Liquidity: Cash & Marketable Securities: $1.5T Average Loans: $1.3T; UP +2% YoY Average Deposits: UP +2% YoY Share Buybacks: $7.1B Quarterly Dividend: $1.40/share; $3.9B total Segment Highlights Consumer & Community Banking (CCB): Revenue: $18.31B; UP +4% YoY Net Income: $4.43B; DOWN -8% YoY Card Services & Auto Revenue: $6.85B; UP +12% Debit & Credit Card Sales Volume: UP +7% YoY Active Mobile Customers: UP +8% YoY Provision for Credit Losses: $2.63B; UP +37% YoY Card Net Charge-Off Rate: 3.58% Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB): Revenue: $19.67B; UP +12% YoY Net Income: $6.94B; UP +5% YoY Investment Banking Fees: $2.27B (Est. $2.34B); UP +12% YoY FICC Trading Revenue: $5.85B (Est. $5.99B); UP +8% YoY Equities Trading Revenue: $3.81B (Est. $3.18B); UP +48% YoY Securities Services Revenue: UP +7% YoY Markets Revenue: $9.7B; UP +21% YoY (Record Equities Performance) Asset & Wealth Management (AWM): Revenue: $5.73B; UP +12% YoY Net Income: $1.58B; UP +23% YoY AUM: $4.1T; UP +15% YoY Client Assets: $6.0T; UP +15% YoY Net Inflows: $90B Higher asset-based and brokerage fees supported growth Corporate: Revenue: $2.30B; UP +5% YoY Net Income: $1.69B; UP +150% YoY Includes $588M gain from First Republic-related asset sale Expense fell sharply due to reversal of FDIC special assessment

JonnySparks

Looking at the poster's profile, they are based in Europe - so it's showing CET i.e. EDT+6

JonnySparks

Looking at the poster's profile, they are based in Europe - so it's showing CET i.e. EDT+6

Full-Discussion3745

# Cumulative effect of CANADA, EU, CHINA tarrifs on the USA 2025-04-09 2pm CET The cumulative effect of these retaliatory tariffs is substantial. Approximately $90 billion worth of U.S. exports are now subject to increased tariffs from China, the EU, and Canada. Analyses suggest that the combined effect of U.S.-imposed tariffs and foreign retaliation could reduce U.S. GDP by around 0.8%. Additionally, tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices, effectively canceling out previous tax cuts and lowering disposable income, with an estimated annual cost increase of about $830 per household. Overall, the escalation of tariffs has placed a significant financial burden on the U.S. economy, both through reduced export value and direct impacts on consumers.

kelsos666

12 EST = 6 pm CET So the call from China is 13 minutes due as I write this.

BrickSufficient6938

Market loved there's no immediate EU retaliation. Jump happened a minute they announced they want negotiations not trade war, 15:15 CET / 14:15 UTC

Alone-Supermarket-98

I just used a few big banks as examples for capitalization adequacy. These banks are considered Globally Systemicly Important (GSI), and as such have higher requirements of a minimum CET1 capital ratio of 4.5% plus a stress capital buffer (at least 2.5%) and a capital surcharge for G-SIBs (at least 1%). But the smaller banks are also well capitalized. Even though their capital ratios are not as high as GSI banks, they also dont need to be because they do not carry the same risk exposure. The last data I saw was that the non GSI banks had a G-1 capitalization ratio of 12.8%, well above minimums of 6% The delinquencies and profitability figues covered all banks. Banks right now are in good shape.

Street_Moose1412

They are late 1515 CET was 15 minutes ago

TowelOld743

Ahh, I've missed the news if that's the case, in their link it still says press conference at 14:40 (CET)

Ahugel71

Press conf tomm at 10AM CET (4AM in New York)

buttercookie_

For my fellow Eurostars: 10:00 CET. Thus, enough time to load up since the press conference will be after our markets open, but before the US market opens.

elpresidentedeljunta

14:45 CET we are going below 5200

Ayeme2549

Von der Leyen press conference in 4 hours (5:00am CET) since she’s in Kazakhstan atm https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/1/20250403

m1lh0us3

My broker is open from 7:30 till 23 hours CET

Sir_King_Sire

Basel III Accords: Detailed Explanation The Basel III Accords are a set of international banking regulations developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to strengthen banks' resilience and reduce systemic risks. Key components include: 1. Capital Requirements Minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1): Increased from 2% in Basel II to 4.5% of risk-weighted assets, plus an additional 2.5% buffer, totaling 7%. Capital Buffers: Countercyclical buffers require banks to build reserves in good times and allow drawdowns during stress. 2. Liquidity Requirements Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): Banks must hold enough high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) to survive a 30-day liquidity crisis. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR): Ensures long-term stability by requiring stable funding sources. 3. Leverage Ratio A minimum leverage ratio of 3% for Tier 1 capital ensures banks limit excessive borrowing. 4. Risk Management Enhanced risk-weighting methods for assets, stricter governance, and improved transparency. Impact of Basel III and 0% Reserve Policies During Recessions Economic Impact Basel III reduces the probability and severity of financial crises but may slow short-term GDP growth during implementation. Allowing 0% reserves undermines stability by increasing liquidity risks, potentially exacerbating recessions. Behavioral Changes Consumers: May lose trust in banks, increasing demand for safer assets like gold or government bonds. Retail Investors: Likely to shift investments away from bank stocks due to perceived instability. Institutional Investors: May demand higher returns or collateral due to increased risks. Investment Bankers: Could focus on restructuring debt and advising distressed firms. Banks: Might reduce lending, tighten credit standards, or seek alternative funding sources. Case Studies Case Study 1: Financial Crisis Mitigation During the COVID-19 pandemic, Basel III buffers allowed banks to absorb losses while maintaining lending capacity, reducing economic damage. Case Study 2: Risks of Low Reserves In the 2008 crisis, banks with insufficient reserves faced liquidity shortages, leading to bailouts and systemic collapse. A similar scenario could repeat under a 0% reserve policy. In summary, while Basel III strengthens banking resilience, allowing zero reserves during recessions could destabilize the financial system and amplify economic downturns.

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Orangoo264

Tomorrow 9AM CET all in at European MIC and inshallah 

PaulDeMontana

Actually think of the Euro perspective. Things are going all well and good until 1 minute before US opening. What will it be today? Will orange man blurt some nonsense? Wall street dumping? Some kind of irrelevant US specific metric that tanks the market? Every day a surprise with the US, but you know damn sure your stock will tank at 15:30 CET without fail.

ojutan

Just sell an option to buy the house and the dog at a certain price and collect the premium. To be honest... I would stay out of that. Because at 9 AM EST / 3 PM CET (15:00) we have the Trump speech. And at 5 pm EST Nvidia earnings. It could be a double win or win / loss or loss/loss. The NVDA chart looks ugly, even if it spikes up today there is a strong trend to the downside. Would your calls gain value? The Trump speech and the NVDA earnigns will cause wild volatility... I would pick the end of the wick to the downside.

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Sufficient_Assist_67

Don't get your hopes too high. Last time the CFO fucked up big time at the conference. But we will fuck around and find out at: **5 February 2025** * 13:00-14:15 (CET) * 12:00-13:15 (BST) * 07:00-08:15 (EDT) Good sign tho is that they have increased market share for GLP-1.

Most-Inflation-1022

ON. RH and IBKR has it. I can trade from 2 am CET already on IBKR.

0to100m

We open at 9:30 CET or 3:30AM NY time

timee_bot

View in your timezone: [tomorrow at 10am CET][0] [0]: https://timee.io/20250131T0900?tl=What%20do%20you%20think%20will%20happen%20at%20the%20general%20meeting%20tomorrow%20at%2010am%20CET%3F%20%24Atos

RemoteHelicopter798

Can't wait for META's earnings tonight 23:00 CET.

pussinbuuts

Do we have to wait until 11am CET for the forward guidance by ASML?

Lion_1981

Atos Se Combined General Meeting – January 31, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. CET https://preview.redd.it/dldhboz22sfe1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ac75d63c7cd7b1eca847f69738e724abd7f0844

Future_Statement7875

I expect a major increase at around 4-5 pm CET

JimJimmington

Put 9k into nvda yesterday evening(CET). So far, so good.

kk70x

https://preview.redd.it/x54br4epkhfe1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cf345a53315f8db215669a642b2cebea7c08c81c Yes premarket opens at 7:30 am CET and it’s a bloodbath.

PikaLigero

Where? In Euronext it ping ponged between 0,0023 and 0,0024 all day and closed at 0,0023 (all day —> until 2pm CET. Shorter day due to Christmas Eve)

jimitr

CET1 ration is above 15%. No one’s asking him to maintain that much.

Slavitom

It's already up 4.35% 10:00 AM CET 

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mo0o0onwalker

we star well with +15% so far after +10% yesterday. Q3 results out at 14.30CET!!!!

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MrGunny94

I bought them at a order to buy at 780 around 11:00AM CET way before the leak :|

davids120

RemindMe! 2 Nov 2024 9AM CET

FunTwew

RemindMe! 2 Nov 2024 9AM CET

nixforme12

RemindMe! 2 Nov 2024 9AM CET

Kalaki-Maki

RemindMe! 2 Nov 2024 9AM CET

InitialAd3323

RemindMe! 2 Nov 2024 9AM CET

diamanthaende

Right on time at 10:00 EST / 15:00 GMT / 16:00 CET - usual Wall Street dump, because why not. Every. Single. Day.

Valueandgrowthare

Banks are tricky to own regardless of CET, Tier 1/2, NPLs or RWA. I rather own asset management firms with simple business and some with stronger customer base. No surprise for me so far.

grmnlad

I've been trading sind 7:30 CET, meaning 1:30 AM EST

Sad-Letter-869

I’m trading over gettex, which is open from 8:00AM to 10:30PM CET

Alans_Briefcase

u/kazkeb >Which metric are you using as an indicator that banks are flush with cash? I'm genuinely curious. RRP is at the bottom of the barrel, and any kind of decent sized inflow into the TGA locks up liquidity and tanks the market (April, last month, possibly now). There are many many ways to tell. RRP is a poor measure. It was always intended to disappear and redistribute. >Fed officials have said they expect reverse repo balances to decline as they drain reserves from the banking system by shrinking their asset holdings. If the balances don’t decline, central bankers could bump up against their goal that “ample reserves” remain floating around the banking system and raise questions over whether to prematurely end the portfolio runoff program. >Officials have signaled they would like to avoid that outcome. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan, who helped design the facility as a senior executive at the New York Fed, called for patience in waiting for market forces to move reserves around the system. >“The process of redistribution from the overnight reverse repo facility to banks won’t necessarily be perfectly smooth,” she said in a January speech. You can see bank reserves rising after SVB: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1tqsu You can see it in ATH lending: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20240830/ Financial conditions easing for 74+ weeks: https://i.imgur.com/Q4yJ0D3.png Deposits also growing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1tqsz They all passed their stress tests from the Fed with flying colors. 40% decline in real estate prices, 55% in equity prices. You can listen to their earnings calls, many have very high CET ratios and stress capital buffer ratios.

Alans_Briefcase

There are many many ways to tell. RRP is a poor measure. It was always intended to disappear and redistribute. >Fed officials have said they expect reverse repo balances to decline as they drain reserves from the banking system by shrinking their asset holdings. If the balances don’t decline, central bankers could bump up against their goal that “ample reserves” remain floating around the banking system and raise questions over whether to prematurely end the portfolio runoff program. >Officials have signaled they would like to avoid that outcome. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan, who helped design the facility as a senior executive at the New York Fed, called for patience in waiting for market forces to move reserves around the system. >“The process of redistribution from the overnight reverse repo facility to banks won’t necessarily be perfectly smooth,” she said in a January speech. You can see bank reserves rising after SVB: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1tqsu You can see it in ATH lending: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20240830/ Financial conditions easing for 74+ weeks: https://i.imgur.com/Q4yJ0D3.png Deposits also growing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1tqsz They all passed their stress tests from the Fed with flying colors. 40% decline in real estate prices, 55% in equity prices. You can listen to their earnings calls, many have very high CET ratios and stress capital buffer ratios.

RemindMeBot

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No_Astronomer_1593

14.30 CET, actually. 8.30 ET

izCS

Went short nasdaq 2 am CET ... Easiest 5K of my life. Was obvious market would dump.

Lost-Practice-5916

u/9tacos u/crazyyimmy >3 massive bubbles: credit, housing, and equities - all at records and existing simultaneously. >Probably nothing :4271: >oh man, where's that cock wanker Lost-Practice-5916 >lets get his stupid take on this Here's my take on this. Ofc my take is the "stupid" one of the cock wanker lol even though I actually back it up. CREDIT - it's not a bubble at all. Bonds got fucking destroyed last couple years. How can it a bubble when we've already had one of the largest corrections in bonds? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1q How can it be a bubble when there's extremely little risk of default and the system is FLUSH with increasing reserves? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1t Credit would only be inflated if the system was about to implode. Not when conditions are easing, banks have been stress-tested to withstand **40% declines in real estate prices,** have stupidly high CET ratios and deposits are steadily rising again. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx2c HOUSING - calling it a bubble is a complete joke. While inventory is easing a LITTLE bit, there has been obscene undersupply of homes. These are just facts. But how do we know this? There's tons of data suggesting this. Vacancies are extremely low. **Only time lower????** Stagflation 70s: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1D https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1F How about looking at raw # of families divided by total homes? Well, 2008 really did a number on us and we basically underbuilt for an entire decade+: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1qx1P EQUITIES - I don't even want to spend too much time on this because it's already debated endlessly. But bottom line, everyone that says equities are "overvalued" want APPL at 10 P/E. It's not fucking coming back. Ever again. We have an entirely different monetary policy framework known as Ample Reserves. We also recognize the importance of having SOME inflation. It creates policy space to cut BEFORE mass layoffs and crisis. It's good to have the system have ample liquidity. It functions much better that way. It also discourages hoarding of cash which does absolutely nothing to grow the economy. * Prior era multiples reflect - post capital destruction and capital scarcity, and high tail risk. That doesn't mean black swans are impossible. But credit based black swans will almost be non-existent now. SVB, First Republic, Signature could easily have spiraled into GFC 2.0. But Fed printed about half a trillion and we resumed like nothing happened... All with rising real incomes and cooling inflation. Yes, **money printing doesn't work in theory but it works in practice**. * Long-term FFR is 2.5% with targeted inflation likely around 2-3%. With that in mind, multiples today are more than fair. The game will be much, much more competitive going forward. As Munger said, the low hanging fruit is gone. There's a lot of smart people out there looking at the same opportunities. Tons of information accessible. So we really only have two choices. Accept that high multiples are fine, don't seem to be inflationary or pose any real problem. Or to make stocks cheap again through the destruction of capital and forcing asset deflation, while standing by doing nothing. This will lead to significant suffering. Do we actually want that? I don't think we do.

ilovethewayyousmile

I’m assuming 2 am ET bc that’s 8 am CET and it said “before EU markets open”

Pessimistic93

7 CET I believe

the_fundamemtals

ASML tomorrow 7am CET, they make the machines that make chip, TSM biggest customer TSM Thursday pre open, they make the chips, NVDA biggest customer We could see a chain effect if both beat, which is super likely (if you AI we are at the start of the AI revolution, and not in the “it’s overvalued and priced in camp)

the_fundamemtals

Tomorrow 7am CET (ASML reports)

the_fundamemtals

Implied move on ASML reporting 7am CET is 7%, if they report a positive surprise, expect a huge green day. Notice also NVDA has been trading super light (volume) in the last few sessions, so might ignite super quick. Anyways GL tomorrow!

5uckmyd1ckb1t4

[$BAC](https://x.com/search?q=%24BAC&src=cashtag_click) **RESULTS: Q2** • Net interest income FTE $13.86B, EST $13.81B • Trading revenue excluding DVA $4.68B, EST $4.53B • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $2.74B, EST $2.8B • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $1.94B, EST $1.73B • Wealth & investment management total revenue $5.57B, EST $5.58B • Revenue net of interest expense $25.38B, EST $25.27B • Provision for credit losses $1.51B, EST $1.5B • Return on average equity 9.98%, EST 9.57% • Return on average assets 0.85%, EST 0.82% • Return on average tangible common equity 13.6%, EST 13.1% • Net interest yield 1.93%, EST 1.95% • Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 13.5%, EST 13.5% • Standardized CET1 ratio 11.9%, EST 11.9%, - Compensation expenses $9.83B, EST $9.77B • Investment banking revenue $1.56B, EST $1.45B • Net charge-offs $1.53B, EST $1.45B • Loans $1.06 trillion, EST $1.05 trillion • Total deposits $1.91 trillion, EST $1.93 trillion • Efficiency ratio 63.9%, EST 64.2%, - Non-interest exp