FCX

drew-gen-x

Commodities are getting clubbed like a baby seal. $FCX, $CLF, and $AA are all down 4-6%. If this continues I will be buying the $XLE oil stocks over gold & other commodity stocks. Higher US 10 yr rates (4.6-5%) are good for crude oil for some reason, and kryptonite to gold, copper, and other commodities. On a longer time frame, if US 10 yr rates do approach 5% again, another $TLT trade could be interesting. If $TLT falls to $83-$85, that might be a decent short term reversal trade. $TLT has found support around $82 going back to 2004, 2006, and 2023. Of course the fund only goes back to 2003. Just some of my worthless rambling market thoughts. I tend to believe many stocks are too expensive rn, so I am looking at other investment options.

Ghost_Pains

Always preferred FCX personally but I think both are fine

Mediocre-Ad2227

Keep your eyes open. Hard to set a Stop price on this one. IMO stock price is riding copper price but also has its own momentum from technical side. If copper price decreases for a day or two, FCX price could retreat too, but if copper enters a longer downtrend, FCX price must stand on its own momentum. If it follows copper down, could be time to get out. Hope it works for you Kooky Lime.

tall_giraffe3232

FCX has been a money printer lately, all I do is wait for the typical morning dip and buy weekly calls. Usually make 30-50% in a couple hours

RandomGuyNamedChris

https://preview.redd.it/u1m9zc783gxc1.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0efa3e501004e6a97dde79d70c3f417bd226430 copper going up to 15k per tone because of EVs and new data centers, bhp trying to buy other copper companies because people dont want new mines (look at panama First Quantum Minerals that got closed last year) and goverment wont easily approve. Listed in the US copper mines ERO, TGB, FCX, HBM, SCCO, all green right now. HBM being the most undervalue. 

surmoiFire

why not FCX or SCCO?

HaveFunWillTravel69

FCX is the call play as long as Copper keeps mooning. $55 inbound

HaveFunWillTravel69

FCX $55 calls

gatovision

Switching my bear game, tired of messing with tech/chips, will tank but never stays down and so expensive to short. Gonna go after industrialists/basic materials on earnings. Puts are so cheap and so many are up like 30-50% since Oct. Had puts on NUE, CLF. Feel like FCX, SCCO, STLD are also gonna tank they remind me of ALB in Lithium craze. Anyone else have that idea?

Original-Snow9764

!banbet FCX $55 2d

Original-Snow9764

!banbet FCX $60 1 week

Original-Snow9764

!banbet FCX 60 1w

HaveFunWillTravel69

FCX, but it will keep pumping.

MalleableBee1

Unfortunately, not many pennies that could take advantage. But FCX is going to go on a tear this year.

SurvivedWayWorse

Analysts Estimate Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) to Report a Decline in Earnings... [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-estimate-freeport-mcmoran-fcx-140049421.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-estimate-freeport-mcmoran-fcx-140049421.html)

HaveFunWillTravel69

FCX earnings on 5/23… get on the 🚀

HaveFunWillTravel69

I keep telling you morons to do calls on FCX. It is literally free money while commodities are on fire.

HaveFunWillTravel69

How are you not putting everything you have on FCX calls? Are you touched?

HaveFunWillTravel69

FCX gonna give me enough money to get into the white slave trade.

HaveFunWillTravel69

Commodities are on fucking fire. How are you not in FCX???

HaveFunWillTravel69

Want to do puts on FCX before earnings, but I know I’ll get crushed.

creemeeseason

I've owned SCCO for awhile. FCX is the other big name. They've both been on a run lately.

ap3xr3dditor

FCX

SeaofSounds

Finally gonna get rid of these FCX bags......

AdhesivenessCivil581

I have that. The YOLO one went from 8k to 150k on penny stocks back down to 15k back up to 150k on covid time SPACs now it's down to 23k. I do take money out at times and put it into real stocks. There've been some petty good 10X real ones FCX, CLF, NVDA. TAYD in hindsight I wish I'd spent more time looking for those.

SameCategory546

ohhhhh that is high. I believe Sprott knows what they are doing much more than globalx, esp after what ive seen with globalx and their uranium etf vs what sprott has done in the space. it’s just a matter of trust for me. personally I am thinking that high exposure to FCX may not be a bad thing bc US investors don’t know any names of copper miners besides FCX, so what else will generalists buy?

LeapDayBaby

Would you mind elaborating on why? I'm looking to buy $COPP potentially but it's super top heavy with the #1 holding (FCX) at 22%

drew-gen-x

Yeah, the potential decrease in Chinese demand is concerning. However with a weaker DXY, all commodity prices could have some potential tailwinds. Vale doesn't just mine iron ore thou. They also mine copper, nickel, cobalt, and gold. If I look at $FCX for copper, it is near a 52 wk high. $BHP is selling at a higher premium than $VALE as well. So if I am uncertain about iron ore demand in the future, than $VALE is a nice diversification b/w $BHP, $GGB, and $FCX. I get the copper & iron ore commodity exposure plus some gold.

sparklingsod

Same thing happened to me with FCX

Valuedigger

FCX GOING TO 100! Buy it while you can! NVDA profits going to Gold!

Ghost_Pains

FCX just keeps going dang

richard-b-inya

Yeah not sure either. It was a short term okay for me. There is a good bull case for XLU and AI. Over the next 6 years it is expected energy growth will increase by 50% from 1.5% a year to 2.25% a year due to power consumption by AI. I am in FCX and XLU currently. I will probably dump most of my XLU position this week just to lock in profits. FCX I have Sept calls on. Gold and Copper miner.

the_dalailama134

I feel amazing with small caps where they are now. Been in a regional bank since the weeks after SIVB last year and up very nicely in EWBC. also started buying CROX last year and after some pain for a while, the position is up over 50%. Got into oil and commodities late last year into February also. Up over 30% in FANG, over 20% on FCX. And I feel like these stocks are nowhere near the top with small caps and cyclicals where they are.

redhtbassplyr0311

I'll say my convictions are strongest with NVDA, AMD, CRSP, FCX, IAU, IBIT, ORCL for a longer period of time. If you want to do your research on those and answer your own question as to why I'm buying them, I guess that meets in the middle without me getting into it all. Probably worth noting that a majority of my retirement is in index funds, mutual funds, money market even and more broad ETFs like VOO and VTI. This allows me to double down on convictions on single equities within a brokerage or some even in my Roth. The diversification with my bread and butter allows me to take some risks as well.

runner322

I took a long BITX and DWAC today. those will ride tomorrow. I also have a RBLX short I will probably take a small loss on. Tomorrow I plan on shorting FCX and long WBD and HOOD FCX has a rising wedge on the 1hr that broke down at the end of the day. HOOD had a 1hr MACD buy signal on the last candle of the day. WBD bounced off the bottom of a falling wedge on the 1hr today. BITX price target of 60 (BTC all time highs be the end of the week!). trailing stop on DWAC, dumping RBLX in the premarket, Riding FCX short down to the 50 period on the 1hr chart. WBD price target 8.80 or 200 period on the 1hr.

Sudden_Feedback_2194

You just bought at the wrong time. FCX isn't performing poorly overall...

soccerguys14

My VOO position is up 30% and my FCX is up 9% I bought in same time.

Sudden_Feedback_2194

FCX is up 21% in 6 months. SPY is up 20% in 6 months....

soccerguys14

Bought a copper mining company FCX. Ain’t working out too good.

belikebets

FCX and what else?

Original-Snow9764

Copper squeeze for the AI boom, FCX calls gonna print

VegasBjorne1

Materials… I got into CMC, FCX, AEM and SCCO in the last 2 weeks.

shadowpawn

Looks a roation into Energy? FCX

belaltth

Hello everyone, I sold 10 FCX March 15 42 calls , then rolled them a couple of times for net credit due to the sudden and dramatic change in price of the underlying. Now I have May 17 45 strike. It's still OTM and for sake of simplicity let's assume that it will be OTM far enough at ex-div date that it wouldn't be profitable to exercise. My question is what happens with the extrinsic value if there is an early assignment? How would that amount manifest in my account? I understand that there would be no incentive for this to happen, but let's say someone makes a mistake.

AP9384629344432

I had positions in FCX in the high 30s, CF in the 60s/70s, PSCE at around 50. I still own XOM at $90 per share. Most of these were bought 2022 through 2023. I sold off them over the course of several months once I realized: copper was entering a new term glut as inventories built up; CF I actually took a decent profit on; and PSCE I took a small profit as I grew bearish on US shale. I entered coal bigly in H1 of 2023, buying $AMR in the 150s, BTU in the high 20s but averaging down to 23, and recently HCC in the 60s and now 50s. I may re-enter copper and also am kinda interested in tin.

No-Replacement-8297

FCX weeklies did a 15x today 👩‍🦼

Adorable_Animal4952

Think FCX has legs? Little legs?

Bulky_Negotiation850

Wow... copper miners absolutely rippin... FCX

Bulky_Negotiation850

I'm watching these solar plays that have been wrecked... FSLR and RUN. All these data centers need a shit ton of power. Solar will be used as will nuclear. SMR, CCJ... might be good plays. Copper gonna be needed FCX as well as lithium... and LI also been wrecked. ALB is way oversold.

Bulky_Negotiation850

Yeah DELL, SMCI... ETN, VRT, NVT... and copper miners. Gonna need lots of CU... FCX. [LUN.to](https://LUN.to). Was also thinking about power sources... they need a shit load of power. Maybe some solar stocks that are down, lithium plays for battery storage, vanadium... nuclear... SMR, CCJ, NXE. Just thinking out loud here but that's where I think the puck is going.

DSBandicoot

FCX looks better

Witty-Bear1120

Sounds like me and FCX in 2020, but I held the bag for 6 years.

Sweet_Sharist

FCX Copper on a new run.

creemeeseason

$FCX Freeport-McMoRan reports: Q4 EPS 27c, consensus 22c Reports Q4 revenue $5.91B, consensus $5.86B. Richard Adkerson, chairman and CEO, said, "We enter 2024 with a focus on strong execution of our operating and investment plans, optimism on market fundamentals and a relentless drive to enhance the value of our strong portfolio of assets. Our global team achieved success during 2023 on a number of important initiatives to enhance value, advance growth options and position us for the future. During 2024, we will continue to prioritize productivity gains, operating and capital cost discipline and the advancement of organic opportunities for future long-term growth. We are dedicated to increasing the long-term value of our attractive assets, supported by the successful track record of our experienced and committed team, strong financial position and exposure to copper and other commodities with favorable long-term market fundamentals."

Otherwise-Tale9671

I bought Freeport-McMoran $FCX in 2003 for $8, and have enjoyed small dividend and a 400+ percent gain since. I also bought OR in August 22 for about $9 and sold in May 23 for just under $16 a share. That’s a more recent trade. I currently hold Agnico Eagle Mines I bought last February at $45 a share. I’m still holding and it’s now around $54 a share. So yeah, having mining stocks as part of your portfolio is absolutely fine and smart.

CampaignFeisty4238

Buy Tech, Buy Oil MSFT, AMZN, VLO, CVX maybe some FCX I would buy 2 or 3 of these

AP9384629344432

Good morning. I'm a professional money loser and here are my notes for 12/22/23. - Atlanta GDP Now revised down to 2.3%, down from 2.7%. That's a 15% decrease in the estimate !?! - Oh core PCE was up 0.1% month over month and I'm supposed to be happy? Yeah, just subtract out the things that actually matter, like food and gas. What then? - CROX limit order hit at $100, that's nice. - Today small cap value is shining. Puts used to always take potshots at the S&P 500 beating AVUV YTD. [Guess what? ... We might take the lead bois.](https://i.imgur.com/iTWiBB6.png) - Lately I've been thinking of some companies that I hold that I didn't do much detailed research about and don't really have an exit plan. Examples: JPM, LOW, V, MA. Is JPM fair valued? I actually don't know. Why did I buy this company again? I mean strong blue chips is nice, and V/MA I think will outperform and LOW should do well thanks to no-recession and housing market bounce back, but maybe I just dump JPM and put it into the index. I have learned in the last 2 years that banks are a lot harder to value than other businesses. - BTU having a really strong +4% day... Still debating taking profits. 8% gains but worried it could tank to -20% in the span of a month. - My biggest 2023 'mistake' was being bullish commodities in general imo. Now don't get me wrong, $AMR was a massive success. So it wasn't the hit to my portfolio so much as my actual conviction/beliefs that were incorrect. (I did have some FCX (copper), CF (nitrogen fertilizer) too, and a larger concentration in PSCE for small cap energy, but I either took small profits or losses on those). The oil bull thesis is getting dismantled the more US production increases while prices stagnate. The once-in-a-century unique warming event that made winter mild last 2022 (as some bulls were claiming) turned out to be... repeatable and natural gas demand will be muted in Europe. The copper supply situation turned out far less dire, in fact in a glut. There was no massive spike in Chinese demand.

fantasyshop

12/22 FCX calls went up 1700% between 350pm and 4pm yesterday and I missed it. They're going to open back at 4 cents a contract. I was literally just doing the dishes before the ol lady came home. Ugh

fantasyshop

I got some FCX FDs at like 3 today and they were +1700% immediately after close. Odds they sell at open before the price falls out ?

drew-gen-x

Pretty sweet day for commodities. Alcoa $AA is up 14.5% today. $FCX is up 7.5%. $CLF is up 5%. The DXY is under 102. The inflation trade 2.0 is about to begin : )

drew-gen-x

Mining is one of the hardest industries in the world. You are digging holes in some of the most political unstable countries/regions in the world. You have no guarantee what the futures market is going to price your commodity you are digging when it is extracted. Plus usually these political unstable regions have governments that want a piece of your profits. With all that said, $FCX is the most stable copper miner in the world. I believe we are in a recession, so copper will underperform; so I've been buying the $GDX miners. However, if I am wrong and we avoid a recession, than copper will outperform gold. Especially with a much weaker DXY.

prettysureiminsane

Thank you random internet stranger who called out FCX this morning. 🚀🚀

AP9384629344432

I think I might sell out totally from FCX in my Roth IRA. I no longer have faith in the short term copper outlook and I don't think this company is that attractive of an exposure. Separately, the oil outlook is just looking worse and worse as production keeps on increasing. Forget OPEC, US shale has no limits seemingly, especially natural gas. Demand may be fine but the supply tightness we were assured of by the bulls has been totally off-base so far. Otherwise I'd be 'buying the dip' in, e.g., XOM. Should just stick to met coal.

No-Replacement-8297

FCX going bananas today 

toonon

Stocks on sale I’m buying through 2024 are PYPL and BAC. Mostly loading up on AMD and PLTR but I wouldn’t consider those on sale rn. Looking at FCX too.

Numerous_State_8122

I’d buy Chinese stocks tomorrow. Biden and Xi meeting in SF on Wednesday, there will be some positive gestures and pronouncements that will pop some Chinese’s stocks. China’s grip on copper just announced. I’d buy copper stocks like FCX, SQM is cheap now.

creemeeseason

I like SCCO over FCX. Iirc, they have much higher historical returns on capital than FCX. I've been pondering selling out of TECK and buying SCCO as copper has fallen off.

drew-gen-x

u/AP9384629344432/ is the copper man around here. Copper futures are on the low end of the 52 week levels so $FCX or $TECK are a much better buy today than they have been over the last 6 months. IF the DXY (US Dollar) continues to move lower along with interest rates that will help most commodity prices. The question is do you believe we will avoid a recession or not? Copper is called Dr. Copper by the old timers for a reason. Copper will outperform during bull markets or global expansion and underperform during bear markets or global contraction.

Lendiniara

Anyone look into FCX? I took a starter position in it recently since i had no exposure to materials stocks.

AP9384629344432

First Quantum (FM.TO) appears to be royally screwed thanks to political instability in Panama. This is 1.5% of the world's copper supply. It's a reminder to miners like FCX, SCCO, Teck with major operations throughout L. America, where major protests / political conflicts surged this past summer (especially in Peru, Chile, Ecuador), that the risk of nationalization, punitive royalties, bans on export has not gone anyway and isn't gone even if the company is a net positive for the country. Currently with FM.TO, the country's leader has given up and said a popular referendum would decide on whether the company's new contract will be valid. The Panama Canal union is demanding all open-pit mining be shut down, blaming mines for causing water level issues in the Panama Canal. Already the contract FM.TOhad signed was generous, with nearly 10% of the Panama government's budget being given in fees in 30 days. $400M of the royalties goes to social programs/infrastructure. Rest of it goes to general budget. This whole episode could apparently rack up some $7-8B in arbitration fees against Panama. The GDP is $60B. FM.TOis 3.5% of the GDP. It could really destroy international investment in the country, but that's what the protestors / government wants at this point. It's a bit amusing because the poster on Twitter living in Panama frequently rails against Western policies (windfall taxes, ESG rhetoric) and claims political uncertainty is therefore higher in Western countries than L. American ones for instance. And then here he is giving a blow-by-blow account of a Canadian miner getting shaken down by Panama (stock is tanking).

drew-gen-x

Definitely. The old saying is commodity land is "the best cure for low prices is low prices. The best cure for high prices is high prices". If we see the DXY pullback from it's recent bull run that would also help copper futures. China is likely to try and stimulate their economy. If copper does hit my target of $3.25/lbs I would likely reopen a small position in $FCX.

drew-gen-x

Mining is such a hard industry. You are digging holes in some of the most politically volatile countries & regions and then you have little to no control on the futures market for the prices of the commodities you extract. And than you still have the normal mining challenges of identifying & extracting these commodities deposits at the most cost effective way possible. I have lost quite a bit of money in $MOS which I am still holding once the phosphorus futures prices turned against them. And right now there is no bullish momentum for copper futures which have fallen below all the main DMA's on the short & long term charts. I sold out of $FCX this summer when it seemed likely that copper futures could not break thru $4 and put that cash all into Barrick. I want nothing to do with copper until the world economy starts to turn around.

AP9384629344432

Agree with you in copper. Was thinking of even exiting FCX, as the short term headwinds look bad.

drew-gen-x

The mining stocks led to my port being up 1.8% today. $GOLD was +3.8%. $MOS +2%. $HL +5%. However all these mining stocks were up at these levels this exact time last month when they sold off hard on Wednesday of the 3rd week options expiration date in September. All of these gains could be gone by the end of the week. $FCX reports Thursday, and while I no longer own the stock, their earnings would be very telling to the product side of the economy. I am still a believer that the transports (which JB Hunt reported tonight) and Dr Copper are as forward looking into the future as hard data in the economy allows. JB Hunt is down -3.8% in after hours and the transports have very much been in a recession for the entire yr of 2023 and it is getting worse not better. I've made my opinions pretty clear that copper is in a bear market and I expect copper futures to retest $3.25 before there is any chance of a long term rebound. I know the copper miners are popular here because of the electric grid & EV's; but EV's are not selling. We have a glut of EV's on almost every dealership with lead times up to 90 days before they can sell that inventory off the auto dealership lots. Good Luck.

AP9384629344432

To be honest the copper market isn't looking very bullish in the near term. Inventories rising, possibility of supply glut thanks to Congo. I don't think I want to add any new copper companies just yet and my FCX position is relatively tiny (after trimming).

No-Replacement-8297

Commodity’s getting hosed this week, how we feeling about FCX

MomentSpecialist2020

$FCX

AP9384629344432

You're absolutely correct! I'm just wary as an investor with that risk of government intervention / war. But I'm not totally against such risks. In fact, I've been looking into this tin miner with operations in the DRC. Even more unstable than Pakistan. As a separate note, I have been trimming $FCX for something with more risk. Maybe won't even bother replacing it. Or will replace with $TECK. I want to be more concentrated in higher conviction plays. $FCX doesn't come across as super undervalued, and if I truly believe in the copper thesis, there are probably plays with more torque. As for gold, I know you like it, but I just can't help but be put off by precious metals. Industrial metals are just more interesting to me and in a sense predictable, not as chart oriented.

drew-gen-x

I tried to send this earlier but I guess a link to seeking alpha isn't kosher here. I'm going to try Yahoo to link to the same story. One of these days you will understand my madness in buying freefalling commodity stocks. While every millennial is talking $FCX since copper sounds more cool among millennials than gold, because everyone is going to drive an EV car in the future; there was an interesting future guidance issued by Barrick. If copper can be found while mining for gold you might as well aim to overtake Freeport. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-gold-double-copper-production-152100182.html#:\~:text=According%20to%20President%20and%20CEO,of%20copper%20annually%20by%202031](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/barrick-gold-double-copper-production-152100182.html#:~:text=According%20to%20President%20and%20CEO,of%20copper%20annually%20by%202031)

JetsAreBest92

Dkng and FCX for long term

toonon

For individual stocks I have AMD, PYPL, PLTR, SOFI, OXY, BAC. ETFs I got SPY and SCHD. For crypto I like ETH. Holding them for 1-5 years hopefully. Only stocks I’m considering buying are FCX or CCJ during a correction.

AP9384629344432

I'm not surprised commodities do well in times of higher inflation given their role in causing higher inflation. I haven't been looking at any copper recently, tbh. The copper markets have been pretty weak lately. I've actually been trimming $FCX (for multiple reasons including moving funds to an unrelated stock I'm bullish on) and might even sell out of it and move to something with more risk attached to it. Or more 'torque' as some people like to say. Or honestly not bother and instead focus on finding miners I think are undervalued as opposed to focusing on the commodity. For example, I've been looking at some tin shitcos.

creemeeseason

u/AP9384629344432 Listening to last night's Investtalk they brought up the sectors that tend to do well in higher inflation are: energy and commodities/materials. 2nd tier industrials and financials (in that order) and lastly real estate. I know you'd been looking into copper names, but I didn't know if you found any. I have SCCO perennially on my watchlist (much higher ROE than FCX). Have you had any luck? Also, how do you feel about copper prices short term?

AP9384629344432

These days I barely even look at SPY/QQQ when i check the market. When you got so many interesting individual stocks who tf care about the S&P 500's 0.2% or -0.4% price action. Today $FCX is randomly shitting the bed. Though I've been trimming it and $CF for other riskier bets. Might totally sell out of FCX at some point and re-enter the copper trade with something w/ more 'torque' to copper. Only other mystery is why XOM/PSCE are selling at these crude oil prices. They aren't pricing in this crude rally being very durable.

BookMobil3

SCCO is grossly undervalued compared to FCX

AP9384629344432

Scrolling through my old comments, wow the commodity space has totally changed since then. What a difference 3 months has made. Update to my comment: > - Positions: AMR (3.5%), PSCE (2.5%), BTU (2%), XOM (1.8%), FCX (1.2%), UFPI (1%), CF (0.9%). > > - P&Ls: BTU (-16%), CF (-9%), FCX (-6%), PSCE (-1.5%), AMR (+2%), UFPI (+17%), XOM (+28%), Now it's - Positions: AMR (5.3%), PSCE (3.2%), BTU (2.4%), XOM (2.1%), FCX (1%), UFPI (0%--sold out), CF (0.9%). - P&Ls: BTU (+3.7%), CF (+12.6%), FCX (+2%), PSCE (+25%), AMR (+64%), UFPI (+33% at time of sale), XOM (+33%), You're URNM must be shining! Nice call! I have no uranium exposure.

AP9384629344432

Just a beautiful day for me. AMR +5% (everyone keeps typing it as ARM today for some reason, I've no clue why). BTU +3%. CF +3%. FCX +3%. Microcap +5% (but it's price action has been disgusting so not gonna brag). PYPL catching a bid. Small cap value +1.5%. Big tech shining. Crude oil hitting the $90s, XOM/PSCE up 1-2%. Visa is my worst performing stock at -2.4% lol. Love it when everything is falling into place.

AP9384629344432

Got it. I'm already a bit too overweight commodities so probably won't add anything anytime soon. Already hold $XOM, $PSCE (small cap energy ETF), $BTU (thermal/met coal), $AMR (met coal), $FCX (copper), $CF (nitrogen fertilizer). Only new buys I'm really considering are Teck (to replace FCX possibly), HCC (longer term met coal thesis). But I'll give CLF/X more research. Also interested in offshore drilling exposure (RIG perhaps?)

AP9384629344432

Speaking of FCX, I might consider just swapping it out entirely for TECK. FCX was my default pick for a copper company as I didn't really have the time/inclination to carefully research the optimal copper company and didn't want to take risks with smaller caps. Just want exposure to copper going forward.

drew-gen-x

Investing in commodities can be tricky. I believe we are in a long term commodity supercycle. However, there can be boom & bust periods within this potential commodity supercycle. Especially if the world goes thru a global recession and demand falls off a cliff. Of course a commodity bust cycle would just limit the future commodity supply & investments and make commodity markets in the future even tighter than it is today. Just look at what is happening with Crude Oil after 20 plus years of underinvestment. I think it is important to buy the largest & best performing commodity producing stocks in each class over some of the junior, or small caps. Yeah, the upside might lower, but you have to worry about some junior minors having a potentially liquidity crisis if we go thru a short term commodity bust. I tend to look more at technicals. If certain stocks are closer to their long term 200 DMA on the 5 year charts; I am more inclined to buy more shares there rather than some commodity stocks trading near 52 week highs as I try and mitigate some long term downside risks. I like the long term demand for copper for example. But if $FCX is trading at a forward P/E of 21 and the stock is trading above it's long term 20,50,100. & 200 DMA and copper futures are falling, I am not buying copper miners. I personally think this is a better time to buy $NTR and $MOS which are both trying to find support on their long term 200 DMA's. $MOS forward P/E is 10 for example. I also like buying $GOLD or $NEW. $GOLD forward P/E is 15, which is cheaper than $FCX 21. Does that mean I think Barrick is a better miner than Freeport? No, but I am looking at which stock is cheaper on a 5 year timeframe. I recently sold out of $FCX and put that cash into $GOLD. I will start buying $FCX shares if it falls closer to $30. But I have a limited amount of funds to buy stocks, so I prefer holding value. $CLF is another stock that looks very cheap right now on a forward P/E projection. Alcoa is interesting as well as no one is talking about Aluminum right now, but that could change. No one was talking about copper 3 years ago. Now if commodity prices go thru a short term bust than all of these stocks will fall much further than many can imagine. I do think it is a good idea to take profits and sell a percentage of each holding when they are running higher, thou.

AP9384629344432

Recognize your username. You must be quite pleased with uranium trading recently. I've been quite happy with my met coal names like $AMR. Waiting to see copper prices finally start moving to reflect the inventory situation so that my FCX position rises.

AP9384629344432

Even ignoring the microcap it's a strong day for me. AMR +4.5%, BTU +3%, CF +2%, FCX +4%, PSCE +4%, XOM +2%. AVUV +2%. EOSE is cooling down on profit-taking but it's trading at the same price without a mega-DOE loan so I ended up adding to my position slightly. Price targets getting hiked to $10 and $15 by Guggenheim and Stifel.

AP9384629344432

Jeez my Roth is up 5% today as my biggest holdings moon. AMR, EOSE, BTU, FCX...

drew-gen-x

I'm just looking at the charts. I maybe wrong. I would suggest watching 2 stocks that I do not own in $AA and $NTR. Again I don't own these stocks so I can't be accused of trying to pump them here like my positions in $MOS and $GOLD; but Alcoa and Nutrien look more intriguing to me long term than $FCX. Now Alcoa needs to find a bottom first and $NTR needs to close above it's long term 200 DMA otherwise I'd prolyl be better to just buy $MOS.

AP9384629344432

I agree the short-term outlook for copper is looking rough. I was thinking about rotating out of FCX temporarily and then moving into something like Teck or a riskier copper play, when there is more blood in the markets at least. But long term I'm just as bullish as I was 6 months ago.

drew-gen-x

I'm watching commodities, and unless China gets some government stimulus support, Copper looks like it is moving lower. If I look at the 5 year futures contract charts, copper's support is $3.68. If we get a weekly close below that price level in the next couple weeks, copper is prolyl falling to $3.22 or so. $FCX which is one of the most owned copper miners has hit resistance around $43.97 for 5 different weekly closes over the last 5 years. The next support level for $FCX is $32.19. If I look at the metals futures prices over the last 52 weeks. Copper is +1.5% w/w, -3.5% m/m, and +1.5% y/y. If I compare that to Silver which is +6.5% w/w, -2.9% m/m, +27.8% y/y there seems to be a trend. The problem is nearly all silver mining stocks are all speculative penny stocks that are usually absolute garbage. They are fine to buy as a speculative trade; but no one should buy & hold them IMHO. And silver is a hybrid of gold & copper. Silver is an industrial metal that sometimes trades like copper, other times silver trades as a monetary metal like gold. So that leads me to the $GDX. Gold is +1.2% w/w, -3.1% w/w, +10% y/y. I am seeing the potential of a huge market rotation out of copper miners and into gold miners. Now if China launches a huge government stimulus package this trade is dead in the water. But I have sold completely out of my $FCX position today and I have bought the $GDX which has found support 3 times this year at $27.20. This market position readjustment may not work; but the charts are telling me this is the trade to make.

pbj_halfevil

sure nividia and tesla can grow earnings. perhaps that is already reflected in their stock price. the banking sector might not do well if they have large unrealized losses in their bond holdings. americans are broke, ao maybe there will be more defaults on loans. i wonder if the news in china could spill over. as far as commodities goes, i am bullish on MP for rare earths and ALB for lithium. DE is a play on high food prices too... and there is COP for oil or FCX for copper, depending on how badly the chinese economy will do...

AP9384629344432

If TECK trades down more, might swap out FCX for it.

AP9384629344432

The fact that FCX (copper miner), for example, isn't getting destroyed on China weakness lately tells me much of it is priced in. By contrast the regional banking panic in H1 killed all the commodities.

Nemisis_the_2nd

> Almost all the large integrated copper producers (i.e BHP, FCX, Codelco, RIO) own some sort of refining capacit I'll be honest, I was asking because I have a bunch of shares in RIO and was hoping to hedge against the production bottleneck. Thanks for answering though!