GSG
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust
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When is it a good time to buy commodities? Are commodities a good time to buy now?
SLV/CPER/FCX. Deep dive on the April CPI data. Inflation is here to stay. Things we can do as investors.
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I've been investing/trading for 30 years, mainly swing-trading momentum. Then 5 years ago decided to finally learn options. Did everything you can "do" with them. Finally came back to basics: options are a tool you use to express your opinion on a ticker. They're not a thing you have to find a suitable ticker to use an "options strategy" on. After being burned too many times by individual stocks, I only do ETFs now. Think they're boring? Check out these 3 I'm in right now: [GSG, PDBC, XOP](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/compare/gsg-vs-pdbc-vs-xop/) Change the view to 3 months: that's the sort I use on "ETFs with options," past 3-month performance. Now change to 1 month: these are doing 17 to 24% per month. Momentum in equity prices persists (Jegadeesh & Titman, 1993). Those ETFs will continue to go up at about those rates for another month or two or three, typically. Big deal, right? "15% a *month*? Pffff! I want 15% *today!*" But think about it: 15%/month doubles you in 5 months. Does that get your attention? But we haven't applied options yet: buy Calls. A long time out, and kinda deep ITM. Just outside 1 year (making them LEAPS Calls) at 80-delta works well. Why bother with LEAPS Calls? *Leverage.* XOP at 637DTE and 80-delta gives 2.4x leverage (Spot / Cost of Call) x Delta So if XOP only does 10% over the next month, you effectively get 24%. Want more? It's safe enough to come in to 90 days. (But NEVER go less than 80-delta. Just don't.) The 18Jun150C gives 4.5x leverage. So a 10% move in XOP becomes 45% on that Call option. It works very well for me. It's not sexy, and it's not an adrenaline rush every day, but the profits pile up. Try it.
Patience with my GSG strangles is paying off. Monday should be interesting!
Was up a little over 100% in Feb. The port is up over 150% atm thanks to oil strangles using GSG. Wish I could do USO but my broker blocks that ETF.
I’m assuming GSG is lumped in with those but if you can find a different security which tracks that commodity index then you can get some exposure. It’s 50-70% oil/energy, I’ve been using it since my broker blocks USO.
I’ve been long oil through GSG for about a week. Started shorting South Korea on Wed. Both through strangles weighted towards my directional bias. If the current narrative doesn’t change it’ll be an interesting week that’s for sure
My GSG calls and EWY puts salute you 🫡
GSG calls and EWY straddles keeping me green in this shitshow
PDBC, COM, GSG are all pretty flat for the last year?
I swing trade momentum across asset classes and if I plug in the etf TAN to my system it doesn’t look very good. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a bad trade though. Anything could happen, but I can only comment from the perspective of my strategy. I’ve been in XLE and GSG for the past week or so personally. Also EWY (etf tracking South Korean stocks) since end of May. So far it’s worked but if this Iran stuff fizzles out then my energy and commodity plays most likely will too.
I’ve been in XLE for a week and GSG since Tuesday. Now we see if it prints..
If you’re doing buy and hold then just keep DCAing. Diversify equities across developed and emerging markets too, not just US, but I wouldn’t slow your contributions if you have a long time horizon. I personally swing trade momentum across sectors, countries, and asset classes so I’m always in something. Lots of opportunities in international markets this year. I switched out of South Korean equities ETF (EWY) and moved into a commodities ETF (GSG) a couple days ago since stocks are losing steam. Anything can happen with Iran/Israel though so I might have a new position by tomorrow or early next week. If you have a real edge and know how to trade then you can hold positions with more confidence. Otherwise stick to DCAing and passive investing bc you’ll eventually lose money trying to time markets without an edge.
GSG https://etfdb.com/etf/GSG/#etf-ticker-profile
ChatGPT says Geopolitical events like missile attacks between nations, especially involving key players in the Middle East like Iran and Israel, can have significant impacts on global stock markets. Here’s how it can affect the market and where you might consider investing: ### **Market Reactions:** 1. **Volatility Increase**: Global stock markets often react negatively to heightened geopolitical tensions, especially when it involves oil-producing regions. Investors may shift towards safer assets, leading to volatility in equities. 2. **Energy Sector**: Since the Middle East is a critical oil-producing region, tensions can lead to potential disruptions in oil supply, which can push up oil prices. This could benefit: - **Oil and energy companies**: Companies involved in oil extraction, production, and refining, such as **ExxonMobil** or **BP**, tend to see stock price increases as oil prices rise. - **Energy ETFs** like **XLE** (Energy Select Sector SPDR) could also be a good option for broad exposure to energy companies. 3. **Defense Stocks**: Conflicts often result in increased defense spending. Stocks in defense companies may rise due to increased demand for military equipment. - **Defense contractors**: Look at companies like **Lockheed Martin (LMT)**, **Northrop Grumman (NOC)**, or **Raytheon Technologies (RTX)**, which may benefit from increased defense spending. 4. **Safe-Haven Assets**: When markets face uncertainty, investors tend to move toward assets perceived as “safe havens.” - **Gold**: Prices of gold often increase during geopolitical crises. Consider investing in **gold ETFs** such as **GLD** or **IAU**, or in companies involved in mining and refining gold. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Yields on bonds might fall, but bond prices rise as investors seek safety. 5. **Commodity ETFs**: With potential disruptions in supply chains, commodity prices like oil, natural gas, and precious metals might rise. ETFs like **GSG** (iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust) could be a way to gain exposure to various commodities. ### **Diversification into Safer Markets**: - **Utilities**: Utility companies are often seen as stable, even during geopolitical tensions, because of their consistent demand. Utility ETFs like **XLU** can be a good place to look. - **Consumer Staples**: Companies in the food, beverage, and household products sectors tend to remain stable in times of crisis. ETFs like **XLP** offer exposure to this sector. In summary, the immediate impact of geopolitical tensions can cause market turbulence, but investing in energy, defense stocks, safe-haven assets like gold, and essential sectors like utilities or consumer staples could help you take advantage of market movements or protect your portfolio.
😭😭😭 simple formula. No I don’t look at one formula to time the market. I’m glad I could make you feel like a genius. Pretty sure I timed the market July 11th when I liquidated and reallocated following sector rotation. But hey, what the fuck do I know. The whole time while I’m doing research I actually just have a thumb in my ass. You should look into sector rotation alongside market contraction and expansion following the business cycle and credit cycles. I was following the GSG index, bond index and July 10th gave me the perfect indicator of the weakening stage in a contraction due to a drop in equity indices. But I was probably lucky huh? Simple ass fucking shit right? How was it losing your money in July. I had fun making some. I hope studying for the cfa keeps boosting your ego some more, it sure seems like you need it.
Might join the GSG soon.
GSG9 finally gona show what’s up?
There is not a good all in one option. Best to sprinkle the best across a group: energy (XLE or VDE), Ag (DBA), gold (GLD or a gold miner etf). GSG gives you a bit of everything but is energy heavy.
I have to say that you should read up on all weather portfolio. You can implement it. I think you don’t need to wait, but you could start with a lower risk option. Basically you need to put the right amounts in: 1) TLT (40%) 2) IEI (15%) 3) VTI (30%) 4) GLD (8%) 5) Instead of like a commodity fund (GSG etc.) I would do XLE or XOM something like that (7%) Not a financial advice, do your research, but this would be my suggestion to avoid volatility.
[Good luck..](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GSG:NYSEARCA?hl=en&window=MAX)
There are a few strategies to hedge against inflation. None are perfect. Precious metals is the classic one but is imperfect and didn’t work well at all early on in the pandemic. Gold has done better the past year but doesn’t seem to be the great inflation hedge it used to. Buy inflation protected securities: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/marketable-securities/tips/ You could also buy commodity backed index funds. Like one I own is GSG which has nearly tripled since bottoming in April 2020, mainly during that really high inflationary period. YTD it has been flat though. Or you can do what most people do: Buy stuff you need- in a highly inflationary environment it is often better to deploy cash early, rather than waiting for prices to increase further. IE if you need a new car or a new house- do it now rather than later.
Commodities (including gasoline): Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI) iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) Food and Beverages: First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG) PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage Portfolio (PBJ) Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) Ammunition and Defense: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (DFEN)
There was a commodities ETF, GSG I think, I bought last year and it immediately lost 10% in like 2 weeks. Fucking kidding me? So I cut my losses because I realized I had already missed the boat. It’s down even more now, im glad I cut it. Turns out it’s accounted for as a partnership too, which is always a pain in the ass for taxes because it’s marked to market and you have to wait for the K1 and all that dumb shit
Read about how to choose your asset allocation from Larry Swedroe "Only guide to a winning investing strategy,,," The book is just average, but read the 4-6 pages only that he dedicates to "willingness/ ability/ need to take risk". That is the best discussion on the topic and will help you decide on how much to each of stocks/ bonds/ cash/ alt. investments. If you are good with those % you have listed above the only rec. I would change is amount allocated to: VNQ and GLTR. Those are just stocks as well so the diversification is not as great as you may get vs. something like GSG and GLD as examples (commodities and gold itself) or even 10% in in GLD alone. The latter 2 as they are "alternative assets" will move completely different in the portfolio. Of course, that type of "frame of reference risk" is unnerving for many folks so they don't do it. If it was me and I wanted to stick to pretty much what you wanted but increase the diversification benefit a bit more I would just give rid of VNQ and GLTR and put that 10% in GLD. Also, simplifies the portfolio as well.
Using a commodity ETF, like GSG or many others.
Not advice, just options. If you want to be exposed to the effects that the inflation has on bond prices going down, you could buy [ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TBT?p=TBT&.tsrc=fin-srch) You could also chase the source of the inflation, which is supply chain disruptions causing rising prices of commodities. If you want to be exposed to commodity prices, you could buy [iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GSG?p=GSG) Mind that commodity prices are already stabilizing and going down.
If you need the money in 10 years then I would suggest copying Ray Dalios all weather portfolio. 30% VT 40% TLT 15% IEI 7.5% BAR 7.5% GSG Or you could go all in on VT or VTI
WEAT SOY CORN ADM etc come to mind. TILL. Is another one GSG is another way.
I looked at GSG and it seems like it's come down quite a bit from peak.
GSG, COM, TAGS, etc. also work
Commodities are also a well known inflation hedge (until demand destruction) and you could have easily doubled or more your money should you have seen inflation coming and not latched onto the it’s-all-supply narrative. DBC general, GSG energy but diversified, copper things, steel things, shipping finally had its day, lithium, fertilizer, OIL. People need basic inputs to make shit.
I'm buying a ton of MSFT, NVDA, AAPL on discount. ​ Also buying VYM and GSG as a recession hedge. ​ I'm also buying COF because my wife loves her Venture-X card and I've started a new mini strategy of "buy stock in whatever product my wife likes", since whenever she orders a beer out at a restaurant that's *always* the one they're out of.
Thing is, these were the minutes of the last meeting, but since the have you looked at the price of commodities? GCC, DJP GSG, all significantly down. How long do you think before we start seeing dovish JPOW again? The markets have done his job for him, at least in the short term, and if he keeps the hawkish rhetoric going, he might have banks or pension funds to bail out. My guess is we're about to get a strong very rally soon.
Just wanted to say that you nailed it. Was searching for info on GSG and this came up. I hope you trusted your gut and bought some! Commodities are performing very well vs. all other asset classes this year for the reasons you cited. Good call!
Start by investing little by little like $1k to $2k a month. To be lazy, try lazy portfolio. There's one I have been trying these 4 months, but is based on a well known portfolio. Original All weather portfolio is: 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, and 40% TLT My adjustment: 50% PDBC(substitute for GSG, since this one gets no K-1), 15% GLD, 15% VTI, 10% IEI, 10% TLT. Idea is to capture all kinds of assets in the whole world market (you can of course substitute VT for VTI, but I feel gold, bonds and commodity are pretty related to foreign investment)
Energy, about 1/3 of total portfolio, using futures (2 lots of heating oil, 1 lot of gasoline, 2 lots of natural gas) Food/Grains 1/3, about 1/3 of total portfolio, using futures (5 lots of wheat, 3 lots of corn, 2 lots of soybean, 1 lot of rice, 1 lot of oats, 1 lot of butter) Three tactical calls together below, approximately the rest 1/3 Short Russian Ruble Short 1 lot of nasdaq futures Long 1 lot of copper Stocks - not a whole lot. Maybe about 10 percent of portfolios Some broad commodity etf, (GSP, GSG, PDBC, RJI, UCIB) Stuff just for fun, just tiny bit Short Bitcoin and Altcoins LAND etf (farmland) KRBN etf (carbon index)
How? GSG is only up 45% since 52-week low
Commodities (GSG, PDBC) have been up these 4 months by 7%. I am not saying to all in on them now, but DCA with amount you can lose. I have been testing the All weather portfolio, with adjustment to 50% Commodity (GSG in IRA, and PDBC in Individual account), and 20% GLD, 10% VTI, 10% IEI, 10% TLT these 4 months. The normal All weather portfolio is 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG/PDBC, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT. Due to the current economic situation, I adjusted it. So far the hedge is yielding me 1.2% for these 4 months with about max 2.5% drawdown these 4 months. I am not worrying about such drawdown and even there's more I can offset the drawdown by my monthly DCA. Patience is the key.
Due to the configuration of the ETF, Teucrium will send you a K-1 which you have to enter on your tax return. I believe $DBA and $GSG also are K-1 ETF's and not 1099.
I'm basically all In on XLE, XOP, and GSG.
coulda/shoulda https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GSG?p=GSG hind sight is always 20/20 :(
All commodity ETFs (GCC, GSG, DJP, USO) are down over the last month, tomorrow's print will be better than expected, and we should gap up.
A core commodity fund/Etf - $PDBC or $GSG. I personally have hedged by tech heavy portfolio with a size-able allocation in $PDBC
Buy GSG with booths hands.
I am currently having an adjusted All weather portfolio with more weight to GSG/PDBC, some GLD, less on VTI, IEI, and TLT, the dip just dropped my portfolio from up 1.5% to down 1.3%, which is about $35 to me. $35 is not much of a loss, so no panic at all. Mostly cash here, and will continue to DCA to such portfolio, and adjust it accordingly for different economic stages. Have little money in small caps as well. These are all fun to me and not creating any financial problem whenever the market dip or crash. There is no need to avoid corrections as the correction won't create a problem. That's the mentality of investment.
Just predict the next economic cycle or estimate what is the current cycle, and put money in different vehicles to get more gain. VTI for expansion, which currently is not, GSG/PDBC for overheating, which seems currently is, GLD/Cash for recession which likely to be next year or so, IEI & TLT for recovery. Have some of each, more on the current situation, more or less on upcoming situation. You can both time the market as well time in the market doing so.
Buy and hold Broad Index fund, for what you can afford to lose, whether it is time or money. Such investment should not be used for other purpose, other than for retirement. Some will suggest to invest 25% of your income to index fund, please consider that. Dollar Cost Average/contribute monthly. The fluctuations will likely not cause you any emotion, because every month's up or down is so little, and you will stay investing for the span of your working life/till financial independence without relying on job. VTI is such fund. If for safer method, 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG(if in IRA)/PDBC(if in taxable account), 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT. If want to leverage, make adjustments according to economic stages, expansion-more VTI, overheating-more GSG/PDBC (like right now), recession/depression-more GLD+Cash, recovery-more IEI, TLT.
Look into the all weather portfolio allocation. Modify it to fit your needs. 30% VT - whole world stock market 40% TLT - 20 year Treasury 15% IEI- short term Treasury 7.5% GLD - gold 7.5% GSG - commodities
30% VT - whole world stock market 40% TLT - 20 year Treasury 15% IEI- short term Treasury 7.5% GLD - gold 7.5% GSG - commodities
It was backtested for at least 11 years, given GSG's inception not that long, and average about 7-8% annually, Max draw down was 13% compare to 39% of SPY, 5.5% deviation. And it is a small amount DCA monthly. So the risk is little. Cryptocurrency is not a widely use hedge yet, given the volatility, it is still consider a risky instrument. The portfolio create as little emotion than holding volatile instruments, and if it beats inflation, it suits its purpose. Investment is meant to be not cashing out until the end of the span. The original is meant to have 40% TLT, doesn't mean you can't tweak it to 10%. It is the hedging effect it counts. Economic stages are easier to predict or estimate after stages happen than any individual trends, making the annual yield more than 10%, more likely 13% with tweakings. With cryptocurrency, the deviation is high, and no estimate can be made.
Where is your GSG for inflation protection?
how much is that $5000 to you, can you spend it on necessities or use it to DCA into the market? Try this All-Weather portfolio from Ray Dalio, 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEF, 40% TLT. Adjust according to economic phrases, Now I may go with 10% VTI, 35% GSG, 20% GLD, 10% IEF, 25% TLT. Do it with DCA, let say that you split it to $500 each month, that is $50 for VTI, $175 GSG, $100 GLD, $50 IEF, $125 TLT. M1 Finance can try adjust ratio of each slices. Adjust when you feel inflation or economy recovery is done already, and economic growth started.
That's why I think a diversified portfolio works better when things start to look bad and we can adjust accordingly. Previously I wasn't interested when some YouTubers explain Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio, not I kinda understand. and may try that on my own. 30% VTI, 7.5% GSG, 7.5% GLD, 15% IEI, 40% TLT, adjust according to economic events, such as last year is the start of economic recovery, so more input to GSG than VTI and possibly less exposure of IEI and TLT as well. At least this strategy is quite bored, the strategy can actually work with a much stable mind that our money would not goes down the drain along with inflation.
Commodity? GSG has been going up 3 folds from the beginning of the pandemic. I am not so sure about whether to enter now to buy some now or not.
I have been doing commodities and energy stocks as an inflation hedge. I have not been impressed with gold, REITs, or TIPs for inflation protection. Stocks have worked historically as an inflation hedge, but if we are going to contract stock prices due to a recession then cash starts looking better even though it is -7% annual. You could loose more than that in a bad week or certainly in a bad month in the market. We may have peaked in commodities, it certainly is not without risk. I would not get into the ETF linked commodities unless you are comfortable examining the volatility and setting appropriate stop losses to minimize loss if they drop (and a limit sell to lock in gains). That also involves limiting exposure to control the volatility. I like GSG, it is 60% energy, so a little less volatile than a pure oil play. All commodities seem to be moving in unison and are coupled to the price of crude. I was initially thinking $130 for crude, so I don't see tons of upside potential at this point, but we might go higher before it drops due to recession. As others have said I-Bonds for $10k is a no-brainier cash alternative.
GSG was up since last year, I was in by $17 ladt July I think, but When my Tech Portfolio still goes up by 18% in Oct, I sold Corn, Weat, Soy, GSG etc. Turns out inflation will continue for long, and War just bring more uptrend, and now it is $25. I would be happy to hold before such rise. And GSG was in Ray Dalio's all weather portfolio, I read and follow one of the youtubers who mention and talk about strategy around it in economic cycles. Currently growth still needs to be recovered and I doubt that, and GSG may seems to last another year if rate hike do anything to consumers spending/enterprises borrowing, making products or services more expensive, and so most can only spend on food.
GSG kept rising for the whole year since Covid crash, and inflatin and oil rise, seems no one notice.
Last month I googled "what should I buy as a hedge to inflation" and one of the recommendations was commodities. So I bought some GSG, and holy shit did I get lucky. Up 36% in 20 days.
I’m bullish… on XOM, XOP, GSG, and OXY BMBL puts have been printing for WEEKS
If you really want to be more risk averse then Bridgewater's and Dalio's All Weather Portfolio should do the job for you. Stocks, bonds, commodities. VTI, TLT IEI, GLD, GSG. Not something I personally do but its a very risk averse strategy.
Same boat, luckily the rest of my money is in UCO, PALL, GSG, and XLE
You meant GSG as in Commodities, can it go up further?
Check GSG if you like, it isn't just gold, but food we eat.
GSG is commodity, check it out if you want to, but don't gamble all your money, play for fun. Also it had K-1, so your tax documents can come late.
I watched The Batman. Enjoyed the movie overall but some aspects I did not like: >! Batman/Aflred dynamic felt weird. Goth Batman just made me feel confused. Movie was like 15-25min too long. Ending at GSG felt a little anti-climatic, if they can blow up the city to flood it, why not just blow up the building?!<
Do GSG. It follows the GSGI index which is the longest running commodity benchmark. It is market cap weighted so oil is usually 70% or so of the index. The secret that NO ONE seems to know is it is the ONLY CCF that is NOT taxed as "market to market". Most aren't aware, but CCF are taxed as ALL short term gains and losses even if you don't sell since future contracts are 1 year are less. GSG is constructed as a 5 year contract (CERF) so they are NOT taxed year to year which means only taxed on sale like a stock or bond (short term <1 year and LT > 1 year).
Crypto is a fad and scam. Commodities is what will outperform inflation. Check out GSG. Silver, gold, oil. Gold royalty companies like FNV and WPM will do very well.
I monitor commodities ETF/ETN GCC, GSG and DJP, and they are up about 8% on average over the last month. I too expect the CPI print to be higher than expected.
Nope no 401k. I had no idea how to invest until about 3 years ago. No one ever taught me. Took me being 5k in debt to even look at money books/youtube. Started using Dalio's All Weather fund if you're familiar with it (30% VTI, 40% TLT, 15% IEI, 7.5% GLD, and 7.5% GSG). But I realized that it too was dependent on a more of a DCA type approach. It assumed you had extra money every month. Honestly I think I would be about the same at this point because bonds are basically where they were when I started (about Q4 2019) if not a little down. VTI is way up, the other stuff kinda up. Definitely not a gambler with most of my portfolio. At least not on purpose. I do that with about 1-2% My thinking is this, if I choose to continue down my current path, there are two ways I'll be able to be financially independent. One is by trading, the other is by landing a steady gig. I'd have to completely move into something else. Not I opposed to it, but I haven't found something that I would want do every day for the next 30 years. But, thank you for the well wishes. Same to you! Who knows, you might find your trading working for you as well. I'm assuming your 10% trading allocation is probably the same or more than my entire portfolio lol.
funny how inflation is barely a topic anymore. I guess it'll be back on the menu next week. Meanwhile GSG continues to go up, steadily but surely...
That's not how it works. Markets don't "tame" inflation. The flow of credit does and the as Bullard said yesterday, they don't want to derail growth. Fed looks at real economic data first, not markets. If they're going to strive for a soft landing, the worst hedge against inflation is cash and bonds. The best for just inflation is GSG and equities in general.
SPY at 61% and QQQ at 50% Fib retracement, pretty decent resistance above, huge earning by Google and the Qs are only up half a percent, next inflation print coming next week and GSG up 12% over the last month... I'm getting some serious bear tingles.
GSG is a commodity-indexed trust breaking down into energy 60%, agriculture 18%, metals 16% and live stock 6%. It's a good one stop shop indicator of how inflation at large is progressing. The weighting is debatable, but unless you feel like doing the leg work of breaking everything down amd weighting it on your own, it's not bad.
So you're saying that the GSG is an indicator of the fed's upcoming decision?
A good trick I learned this week to try and figure out the fed's move is to look at what GSG does. It's gone up 10% in the last month, the more it goes up, the likelier a 50bps rate increase.
Oh, I have lol. You and I think alike. The four ETFs I’m trying to get on discount are XLF, XLE, FSNRX (diversified realty index), and GSG (commodities index).
Now you said it, what will go up in 2 years, and by how much? If you don't have a target and time frame, you should hold onto more cash instead, that way, you always have cash for any crash. Btw, all mega cap, oil, banks, municipality (CAT, DE, 2M), material (GSG, AA, WOOD), broad market index have gone up by 30% at least. Would you still be betting them to be up?
in this inflationary environment, someone talk me out of investing in GSG. seems like a no brainer to invest in commodity weighted s&p500 ? also what are peoples thoughts on the ETF LIT?
Honestly? Far-dated deep ITM puts on GSG. With hikes coming, commodities, with oil included. Are going to cool down. Also Russia isn't going to invade Ukraine. It's like China and Taiwan, where Taiwan is the cute bartender that you keep telling your friends you're going to ask out one day. But.. you never do.
Inflation will not be transitory. Interest rates will go to 30% Protect yourself with a little gold and silver bullion. And buy a good commodity ETF like COM or GSG. It’s going to be a rough ride in the markets for a while. Batten down the hatches.
Looking at the CPI posted in July/August, I see a small 1 day increase following the CPI numbers in commodity ETF's (GSG, PDBC), followed by a downtrend of a week or so, for these ETF's it looks like -$1-1.5. Is this retarded enough to make a gamble on a \~$.50-.75 drop by Friday? Would roughly fall in line with the past 2 months. Or maybe its better to wait and see if it does drop, and make the rebound play
I don’t think CPI understates real estate at all. If anything, inflation bulls overstate the impacts of inflation broadly, especially housing. At any given time, very few people are impacted by housing inflation. The vast majority of people in homes own the home either outright or thru mortgage. Their housing inflation is negative. And around 60% of households own and don’t rent. The % of people buying a home in a given month is so low compared to the overall amount of homes the “inflation” largely becomes a choice of those who do not care about it. Rents were negative last year. And the rent increases overall were what last month? YoY was what? (It was far less than 3%) It’s interesting to criticize CPI but mention PPI which all comes from the BLS. The rate of inflation increase in PPI is also topping and it has a worse YoY because it fell more than CPI in 2020. Some will be passed on, some won’t, and not all industries are the same, but it is again a reflection of macro factors that are transitory. Unless you think Covid disruption levels will stay the same forever. Also. If markets are forward casting GSG is saying that producers commodity input costs will stop going up within the next few months if not already. And FYI. PCE includes rents. You could have looked that up.
Put into a "dragon" portfolio and let it sit there until you figure out what you want to do... 13% IVV 10% VXUS 20% VIXM 18% GSG 10% IEF 7% TLT 18% GLD 4% GBTC or just hold some basket of most capitalized bitcoins in a separate account. Thank me later;)
It's an inflation hedge and a diversification play. Zoom out to max on the GSG chart - you'll notice that commodities are still trading relatively low compared to historic high. It's possible, too, that we're entering or that we enter a [supercycle ](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.refinitiv.com/perspectives/future-of-investing-trading/is-this-the-start-of-a-commodities-supercycle/amp/), and easy monetary policy around the world plus supply chain disruptions do a great job of pushing prices up. It's not a long-term buy and hold. If and when it goes significantly green the idea is to rebalance the excess into stocks.
I like pretty much most of this except the commodity trust, commodities are really volatile and don't really provide value to an investor. Specifically, the GSG fund has returned an annualized -7% CAGR since inception, which is a horrible return. Honestly, u would be better off with bonds.
If you're looking to swing or day trade, ETFs probably aren't for you. But yes, some of the popular ones are quite active (GSG for example), and during a good bull run, could grow very quickly (Like ARK a couple years ago).