Reddit Posts
Most Important Stock Market Earnings from Today - (10/24/2023)
2023-04-12 Wrinkle Brain Plays - In the style of Gordon Ramsay
Digital Age for Big Oil using Big Tech $HAL & $MSFT ; $AMZN & $BP, $SHEL
SMAR, S rises on earnings; CP higher on Kansas buyout approval; CS, FRC, RIG, HAL slide
2022-11-18 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-27 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
Anyone under 40 has never invested in a Bear Market & It shows - Long $GLD and $XLE
58.4K to 129.6k over the past year on oil - mix of shares and leaps
This time is really different - The Market is way oversold
Out of NVDA, GOOGL, and MSFT, which one do you think will have the best future in the next five years?
Gains for the month (threading GM, SONY, APPLE, and HAL)
Shoutout to my fellow smooth brained ape
Degree of automation in apps for retail traders
$PBF - time to buy refinery - key facts
CL=F is still rising, but Oil itself is not the play. Do this instead.....
Dow Rallies on Bullish Bets in Energy, Materials
Mentions
You are better off buying the actual shares on margin than calls I'm afraid. Even when the trade goes against you, you still own the shares. True you may own those shares on credit. I've messed up so many picks & trades that I've started to cast a wider net. I bought $EWY & $EWJ instead of just $EWJ and went half each. Good thing too as my 1st choice has underperformed the 2nd. $MOS was my 6th biggest position and it dropped 6% after earnings yesterday. Good thing I went 50/50 b/w $MOS and $HAL last December. I'm a huge Gold bug but I sold 10% of my $PHYS (Gold) shares Monday b/c Gold had reached 30% of the value of my port. Today I bought half $CAT and $DE instead of just buying $DE b/c I could be wrong. It's easier to brag on Reddit when I have 20 positions over 5. There is a good chance one of my positions is outperforming the $SPY for the day : )
I'm sleeping pretty soundly with $TLT, GOLD, $EWY, and $EWJ as my largest holdings and a bunch of boring commodity & industrial stocks like $HAL, $MOS, $OXY, $AGCO, $DE, and $CAT to round out my port. It's my belief that the market is replacing the US 10 yr with Gold as the world's reserve currency. This explains gold 2x over the last 2 years and it's continuous bull run higher. The market is also repricing physical cap ex heavy asset stocks higher and repricing low cap ex data/bytes stocks lower. Foreign countries & investors are selling their US Big tech stocks & USD to stimulate their domestic economies whose companies are usually more industrial, manufacturing, and financial Vs US high reliance on Silicon Valley. This explains foreign stocks outperforming the $SPY for over a year now. Investors are also paying a premium for stocks in industries that seem more free from disruption from AI. $CAT and $DE for example aren't likely to be disrupted by AI until AI can plant & harvest crops or build a data center. We had a similar cycle b/w 2002-2012 after the internet infrastructure boom & bust.
I like HAL and SLB. Not flashy but this is a stretch of history in which they are performing well and should continue. I also like FMCC FNMA at the current price point. There is some risk though because the White House is unpredictable.
First I’ve heard the term, but I’ve been hearing this strategy lately, a few months back I picked oil infra- HAL and SLB - for this reason and they’re doing well.
HAL is going to pump so hard when 🥭 shoots up Iran and oil spikes
In an event of an attack fundamentals will matter a bit less, lol. CHRD is a clean play though, zero middl east exposure. In general in oil sector refiners will probably have a mixed reaction, depedening on crude access. Tankers will enjoy a rates spike because of disruption in Strait of Hormuz disruption . Defense stocks go up, may be RTX, LDOS, PLTR . I have XOM, HAL, SLB, HON, MSFT, MCD all having subsidaries in middle east but not sure how much they would be impacted. But whatever it will be , will be negative. All the susbidaries I have for CHRD are 100% in US
It's very possible. Many of these commodity names run together. I am adding $BTU to my $AA, $MOS, $HAL commodity bucket. I don't need more metals so I am buying coal. I am building a very diversified port that is very tech light. I want cap ex heavy asset stocks. Atoms are more valuable than bytes in this market cycle.
My Stock Portfolio: NBIS MVST HAL BLK AVGO MU META RIOT MSTR
HAL and SLB were cheap today
You are better at this than I am. I mentioned earlier I bought $EWJ, $EWY, and $PHYS. This is with the cash from selling out of $SQQQ. That's the areas where I am thinking long term. I'm considering trimming $TLT since I still have a shit ton of shares from last April. I also added a small lot to $HAL. US big oil is going to steal that Venezuela oil. I think I should stick with trading ETF's. These market moves feel like there's either liquidity or margin calls issues and everything could drop at the drop of a hat. I'm worried that gold may not hold up as well as I would like.
I'm getting out of the way of these overpriced US stocks. I've been putting off buying $EWY and $EWJ waiting for a pullback that has never come. I just bought & will DCA in both starting today. Reddit can have fun with these overpriced American stocks. I'll bet on Mitsubishi and Samsung along with Gold. The world is watching the US AI bubble pop and pulling their Yen, Yuan, and Won back home. I guess I am now long Japan, South Korea, Gold, commodities $AA, $MOS, $HAL, and $OXY, and US treasuries. I will let reddit BTD in software and tech. Even US staples like $WMT and industrial stocks like $CAT are expensive.
My take (which judging by my wallet, is usually 100% wrong) is that more are slowly realising that the AI we’ve leveraged the economy against has more in common with the Wizard of Oz than HAL 9000. As for crypto, maybe just cause… it doesn’t do anything and is basically literally worthless and stupid?
Agreed. That's why I have been buying $MOS which is potash & phosphorus and trading at a discount to $NTR. Crude Oil is interesting. I am more interested in the $OIH stocks ($HAL) and the pipelines over the pure crude oil stocks. I do think we are seeing a repeat of the market being to forward looking on the electrification of America. I've long compared crude oil stocks to the tobacco stocks in the 1990's. Yeh, we are moving away from crude oil, but the market is pricing in the transition 30 years to early. Just like when I was a kid, everyone could tell cigarettes were on their way out beginning in the 90's. The problem was the market was discounting the next 30 years of revenues until that transition happened. And even now, those nasty nicotine pouches are still making Phillip Morris & British Tobacco profitable.
Nice day for $MOS up +4%. $HAL is up 3%. Those are the 2 stocks I've been buying and spamming reddit about along with BTD in Gold.
Halliburton. There is 303B barrels of Venezuelan crude oil now available to be drilled and $HAL sells the equipment & service that are necessary to drill for that crude oil.
Well think of how tech is the largest concentration of the indexes. So if that goes down likely tech or macro. Have to find the value investments. I had BTU, HAL, NOV, AQN, PAX before their runs. Also long the Yen bc I think the carry trade is screwed
I prefer to buy stocks that are going up, not the Mag 7 AI circlejerk stocks that are always upvoted here. I bought $HAL, $MOS, and $AA today. Hard Assets > Financial assets during this cycle.
I got some short puts and PMCC on $XOM, $CVX, $MMM, and $HAL. They’re a bit of boomer stocks but you need the capital and connections to play the energy and infrastructure game. Oh and $DOW too.
Nobody with money cares about ICE. We're buying ITA and HAL.
If the US is going to go full Iraq in South America HAL a great track record.
I am going to buy HAL in 10 minutes!
From the same report >Rigs drill oil wells, and an increased number of active drilling rigs indicates that U.S. producers are drilling more wells, which generally results in growing oil production. Our latest STEO shows the active rig count decreased year over year in 2024 through November in all L48 primary crude oil producing regions except the Bakken. The region with the most activity, the Permian Basin, declined from 310 rigs to 303 rigs between November 2023 and November 2024. The active rig count for these regions, which includes the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken, declined 18% to 389 rigs since the recent January 2023 high. Data on 34 publicly traded exploration and production companies also suggest increasing well productivity is helping reduce companies’ production cost per barrel. Some companies are seeing efficiency from AI, but it's not LLM's, it's ML. I'm not saying AI is going to replace anything, but rather, AI can be a tool to increase efficiency. From HAL [https://www.halliburton.com/en/resources/the-rise-of-artificial-intelligence](https://www.halliburton.com/en/resources/the-rise-of-artificial-intelligence) >Results >The effective interaction between AI and the directional engineer marked a significant operational milestone for the operator. Human expertise, combined with predicitive analytics technology, formulated recommendations as part of a unified human-AI team. The LOGIX® automation and remote operations helped improve consistency during well construction, clearly demonstrated during the development of three wellpath trajectories. >The team achieved consistent performance improvement and drilling trajectory accuracy, which resulted in a remarkable 33% increase to the rate of penetration (ROP) when compared to traditional drilling methods without human-AI solutions. >The autonomous drilling platform demonstrated consistency between planned and actual DDIs indicated by significant smoothness in hole profiles, which minimized time and effort. Casing and liner run speed additionally improved by 15 to 45%, which reduced deviation from the planned path, enhanced steering efficiency, and minimized the tortuosity impact. There's been a loss of a lot of jobs in the industry [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/40-us-oil-jobs-lost-103032384.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/40-us-oil-jobs-lost-103032384.html) >New technologies to drill faster for cheaper, corporate mergers and robots replacing humans on rigs resulted in the disappearance of some 250,000 jobs since the sector's employment peaked in 2014. Production surged 50% during that time.
Software engineer, but AI has been great. I use it all the time at work and still in the camp of LLM's are pretty dumb, but real AI winners will just be companies that can actually take advantage of it. A great case example is oil and gas companies are using ML, machine learning which is still AI, to get more efficient in drilling to lead to cheaper break even prices. For example, something from $HAL [https://www.halliburton.com/en/energy-pulse/artificial-intelligence-drilling-accelerates-new-era-of-excellence](https://www.halliburton.com/en/energy-pulse/artificial-intelligence-drilling-accelerates-new-era-of-excellence)
Halliburton $HAL EPS $0.69 beat est $0.55 Revenue $5.657B beat est $5.142B Here's the most important news regarding $HAL from their conference call. Execs say they can scale up & move equipment very quickly into Venezuela and are working through the mechanics around licenses & payments. $HAL is up +4% this morning after earnings. I have been pounding the table on both $HAL and $MOS since I started buying both in Dec 2025 as we enter a stock rotation from Tech into commodities as people start to ask questions on how we are going to power & pay for this huge data center build out?
He mentioned oil and nuclear, calls on HAL and GEV
I’ve been trading ETFs and crypto for a little over ten years now recently just started playing craps and even more recently (last week) bought some RCAT calls that I did really well with making 110% essentially doubling my money tried doing it with HAL and got burned although I think it was better leaving with 70$ versus 0$ in hindsight but ya I’ll heed the advice and just stay away from options thanks a lot for the feedback!
Ummm.... I left you a lengthy breakdown in the other thread. Please read that, but in stumbling upon this, I am shocked. You paid $25 a contract where you should have paid $10. The bid ask was 0.08 - 0.19, that's someplace between $8 and $19 a contract. But then you placed a limit order of 0.25, or $25 a contract. And the market maker filled you at that inflated price. The order should have cost you about $90 to $100, but you paid $225. # You were at a $135 loss the moment the order filled. HAL would need to get up to $36.6 a share for you **just to break even**. HAL has not been that high since June 2024. HAL does have earnings this week, and if they are really good, HAL might go that high, probably not. *And that is just to break even*.
I suggest you do not trade options right now. Start with trading stocks or ETFs. Read "How to Make Money in Stocks" by O'Neil, $10 on Amazon. # Breakdown of what happened I can't see what the spread is as I'm writing this after market close and I can't see historical for Tuesday until after market tomorrow. But using historical, I see the spread when you bought on Friday was a bid/ask of .10 to .20 mid day, so, perhaps you filled at .15 so $15 a contract. Did you buy 10 contracts? So cost basis was $150? (just guessing here). Then you sold 10 contracts at .07, so $7 per contract x 10 = $70 # Your call options were never "up" $212. That was a phantom. Depending on the software you are using, it may show your profit based on "mark" or market, where mark is set as the mid-point between the bid and ask. Another commenter indicated that the spread when he checked was .06 to .64, so here the mark was about .36, and your cost basis was about .15, so your profit may have "appeared" to be .21 But it was never there. And if you look at the market today, HAL was down 2%—think carefully here—**If the underlying is down 2%, you're not going to have a 140% profit on your calls**. These phantom market prices appear when the spread becomes very wide due to low volume/low liquidity. And with options, there is often the dreaded "Bid 0 option" where there are literally no buyers at all and you'll find yourself unable to sell. In your case, you put in a market order, so it's up to the market maker to fill at some price between bid and ask, inclusive. If you had 10 contracts, then you filled at .07, that gave you .07 for the loss from your cost basis. A "correct" spread here would have been something like .06-.08, with .07 the market in the middle. But the low liquidity resulted in a phantom ask value of .64 that resulted in your thinking that you had made a profit despite the stock being down 2%. Had you set a limit order of .36, it would not have filled, and just sat there. # About HAL HAL does not have greatliquidity, though I;ve seen worse. But you were buying pretty far OTM (out of the money). Maybe it looked cheap to you, but low delta options (delta under 25) are NOT useful for short term trades. You buy low delta, far OTM options with very long dated expirations, like say 6 months or a year from now. If you are trading weeklies, with a mind to sell in a few days, then trade the ATM or At The Money, where the delta is about .50 But also, do not buy options on the Friday of a three day weekend with the plan to sell them on Tuesday. You're just wasting money on Theta and for no reason here. # TL;DR 1) Options are not cheap. They look cheap, but they'll cost you. 2) Trade stocks & ETFs, and show that you can be profitable trading them before you ever try to trade options again. 3) The name of the game in trading is RISK MANAGEMENT. If you do not understand the risk going into a trade, expect to lose all of your money faster than in Vegas, and without the benefit of free drinks. # Advice If you want to trade, trade shares. Many brokers allow you to trade fractional shares, if you don't have the capital for full shares and round lots. START doing that FIRST. If you want to gambol, try slot machines, blackjack, or Craps. If you try trading options without understanding the mechanics involved, you're not even gambling—you're just putting your money into a paper shredder. I tried to point out to you what went wrong on your trade, and re-construct from the very incomplete information you gave, and this analysis applies to this case only. There are many other such complicated circumstances, and it's best you understand them before taking a seat in THIS casino. GOOD LUCK
Anyone playing HAL earnings?
Look at the 5 year chart for $AA, $MOS, $VALE, $CLF, $OXY, and $HAL. Those are the commodity stocks I have been buying. I agree with you on gold & silver. I have been holding both gold & silver, but not adding. If money actually moves out of America, where will it go? Foreign tech & banking stocks? Not a chance in hell. But you can store your cash in assets such as commodities that have demand worldwide.
Today: - Calls: NFLX HAL - Puts: UAL PRGS
Mad cheap 35C for HAL, earnings next week
While I'm not committing to these yet, I'm thinking: - Calls on NFLX ISRG INTC GE AA HAL FCX - Puts on UAL PRGS
Zero DTE options are a new thing which is an outcome of FOMO and the HAL9000 machines being involved more than ever. Long term investing is still a thing for retail people that are sane.
I can be passive aggressive. Most of my posts here get downvoted despite the fact that my port is up 1.5% today and my new positions in $HAL is up over 20% YTD. I mentioned buying $MOS yesterday that was downvoted despite the stocks being up 5% today. I sometimes wonder why I even participate since this place has turned into an AI circle jerk.
$MOS, $NTR, $CF, $HAL, $OXY, $DVN, $APA, all up +3%. If you don't own a position in some of the commodity stocks, you are making the same mistake as those that weren't buying Gold before 2024. We are seeing a similar market rotation out of tech into commodities as we saw in 2022.
I'm gonna continue with my 2022 playbook and buy more $HAL and $MOS which are already up 15% and 9% YTD while also shorting the $QQQ. Commodities are gonna outperform the market in this cycle.
KBR isn’t in that market and barely in that space these days but yah got it. HAL pumped on immediate news more than the rest Burry printing there I guess
Yes, but he was talking about different type od assets. HAL SLB KBR BKR, too much risks on majors.
HAL SLB KBR BKR in this order
Think the way to play it is the service companies like SLB and HAL. That being said... gonna be hard to convince any oil company to go back into Venezuela, even with US guarantees. Just better, cheaper and safer stuff elsewhere.
How do you know this 👀 Of course HAL is involved ! Not SLB?
Capatilize on the U.S Venezuela situation. CVX, VLO, NVDA (especially great for consultant long term growth- same with the others tho), HAL, PSX. Spread among these there is co.panies to rebuild existing wells, some that specialize in water drilling which U.S will likely take advantage of, processoring and energy companies to turn the heavy crude oil in Venezuela to light oil that can be transported, some transport the oil, one U.S oil company is located in a touching country to Venezuela that has good relations and experience in their wells, drilling ect, you get the point. If you spread out and have a bit in each one or smthng you can't really go wrong.
90% of portfolio is cash rn. My last holdings were BTU, HAL, SMCI, & KVUE which were all sold at their highs (except HAL, sold at 27:( ). The US economy looks like dog shit so I’m actually short SPX as of 11:30am today
Service companies should do well. SLB, HAL, BH
HAL to start. And they have a lot of crypto down there.
I have calls on Nvidia, Chevron, XON, Apple, HAL, VLO, Apple, Microsoft and MSTR. Which ones will 10x today? Nvidia and Chevron????
HAL should be strong on future needs rebuilding the oil infrastructure.
Yeah, perhaps. I honestly don't follow $HAL or $SLB anywhere near enough to say on those (see it's ok to admit when you don't understand something enough to make a play on it). I was more laughing at everyone on twitter and the like saying oil futures would gap down hard and Canadian oil companies were doomed. Or that CVX, XOM, BP etc would immediately gain bigly from this. Like 1, the VZ situation is far from settled. 2nd, it would take a shit ton of money and years to start pulling up VZ oil in a meaningful way. 3rd, these companies haven't earmarked any of their money for said venture yet. So when I saw Canadian names like CVE and SU get shit on in early market, I bought and sold in the afternoon for a quick easy day trade lmao. Long term remains murky as VZ is unresolved, Russia/Ukraine is unresolved, and there continues to be musings of going after Iran again.
The moves higher are justified for $HAL and $SLB. Both stocks had significantly under-performed the other $XLE stocks. The midstream pipeline stocks are a good buy too. The easy money to be made is always selling the picks & shovels for the oil "gold mines" so to speak.
Some of the moves don't make sense. Like, I don't think COP or XOM are going to enter or really commit to anything in a meaningful way. But like, CVX already has assets there so they likely will be reclaiming those. Then a few service companies will benefit from the increased CAPEX like HAL and SLB. The CAPEX need is pretty massive from what the reports mention on the overall infrastructure.
This bear is watching his $HAL shares pop +11% today. Gold is also up today b/c it's gold. I missed reshorting the $QQQ at 620 as I was more interested BTD in $OXY and $MOS this morning instead believing commodity stocks have a higher upside than shorting Big Tech this time around : )
Now oil field services , engineering and construction… I like HAL , FLR
$HAL up over 9%. Don't listen to the reddit gurus : )
I've loaded up on HAL and SLB at market open. In any case, it's a good diversification from all the tech stocks in my portfolio
That's why you buy a little of everything. I bought $HAL, $OXY, and $KMI when I mentioned I was buying heavily into oil. $HAL up 8% , $OXY down 4% and $KMI down less than 1%. But all are green since I bought 2 weeks ago. Big Money is trying to decide which energy/oil stocks to buy; but all have been getting bids over the last month. When has energy or crude oil ever gone down in price significantly when the world is at war?
Thank Gawd I ignored all the reddit downvotes and loaded up on Haliburton the last 2 weeks. $HAL up +7%. Because Crude Oil is dead right???
My shares of Halliburton say differently. $HAL and $SLB are both up +7% Monday. Whose equipment & services are going to be used in Venezuela now?
Bag holding HAL calls for a year, finally can sell for a profit. Phew
SLB and HAL make some sense.
So we are all gonna pile into HAL, SLB,XOM today at the bell, amirite?!
HAL is getting the contracts for fixing old infrastructure, not financial advice
SLB and HAL is what I’m going with!
I don't realize that. I hear it, but I don't know the industry. Do you? Is HAL really geared for this kind of thing or are we just going on impressions? Also - what rational basis do we have to think HAL will be let in? This administration can't get their story straight of what they did, why they did it and what they plan on doing. If V doesn't want us in there, how are we going to do it? Send the military? Let American soldiers die so that HAL can make money? It might play out that way, but it may not. It's pure gambling right now.
Remember Trump’s ”bold idea” to turn Gaza into a beach front resort? It is a bit difficult to reconcile the extremely competent performance of the government in apprehending Maduro and the rambling nonsense which is Trump but you should forget everything he said. Still, HAL, SLB, and BKR are good companies
At this moment, $HAL +13% $CVX + 10%, BKR +10%, $SLB +12% $VLO +10%, $MPC + 10% $COP +8% $SOC +6% By the time the news hits its always too late.
I just looked at the charts of CVX, SLB and HAL, someone definitely knew on Friday, before it happened.
HAL is an oil service company that serves exploration companies like xom and shell and bp. V's attack will boost exploration companies exploration demand in v, hence stock price is up But exploration is not a single function of government permit. So i'd opt out on hal and sell it first thing tomorrow
HAL was at $20 like 6 months ago… now its at $34. Youd have to really know what HALs future in Vz looks like to say anything about fair value now…
Was thinking of loading up HAL/SLB on open, but too late I guess
I think HAL is a safe bet it is very close to fair value, and it won’t only rely on Venezuela, but the current events will boost the stock lrice
I think you're probably right about HAL. But we're still in the who the fuck knows phase. About how things are going to turn out in Venezuela. I'm not making any moves. I got my one oil stock PBR. Their workers are on strike. Just gonna ride it out and see what happens and play other moves unrelated to Venezueoa.
But you do realize that HAL is needed to rebuild the oil business there
the services play (HAL / SLB) makes way more sense than chasing crude hype, oil prices fade, contracts and billable hours don’t
The play is oil infrastructure, not oil. It would take billions of investment to repair the decayed infrastructure. That's where the money is to be made. In the short term oil goes up very slightly from the loss of supply during conflict. In the long term oil goes down after HAL and SLB make billions in getting everything started up.
Markets are forward looking and like easy money. There's billions on the line in repairing infrastructure. Markets not reacting means they don't think anything has changed, which is true. The same exact people are in power minus 1 person. If Trump announced a permanent 20k troop presense then HAL and SLB would absolutely gap up now.
Yen Carry Trade, CME Margin requirements on Silver Contracts, and now onto my next armchair degree, Oil Services, BKR, SLB, obvs HAL
XOM up 5%, HAL up 14%. Oil patch happy
This won’t go anywhere. Way too much incompetence at the top and I’d be surprised if any operators go very deep into VZ. If no operators then no need for service companies like SLb and HAL.
Fridays move had nothing to to with it... it was money being pulled out of overvalued tech stocks. My guess is oil stocks other than HAL wont go up much on Monday. They're not interesting in investing money there, it's just too risk and the ROI time horizon is too far out.
HAL was too close to Dick Cheney, I don't think Donald's admin will be down with that.
COP, HAL, CVX, etc. There’s a pretty good write up here: https://altindex.com/news/stocks-to-watch-us-run-venezuela
> Lots of people are talking about oil companies and oil infrastructure companies like CVX, XOM, COP and HAL. Absolutely none of these companies are getting into the country any time soon. Maduro's party is still in power, and the opposition parties of the country hate each other too much to banned together to form a coherent government. > How do you think this will be paid for? They wont. Venezuela was already in a precarious position before this happened, and was barely getting itself out of a self-induced famine. It doesnt produce anything but oil and the oil infrastructure was increasingly decrepit to begin with, and its not something you can just turn on and off. And all of these assets are still owned by Citgo who last I checked is still in US bankruptcy court and wont be leaving any time soon. That means all that infrastructure doesnt get touched by a US company for the foreseeable future.
How about some HAL calls
So which one should people invest in for tomorrow? Im seeing a lot of positives for HAL but Im skeptical about Chevron.
What’s the market angle that actually trades? * Oil: Venezuelan crude is heavy/sour. U.S. refiners can process it, but throughput, margins, and contract terms decide outcomes. A quick gasoline glut is unlikely; diesel/asphalt effects are more plausible. Near-term watchlists: refiners (VLO, MPC), services (SLB, HAL), integrateds (CVX). * Gold: Above-ground Venezuelan reserves are limited; new mining is slow. Hard catalyst for a gold crash is weak—uncertainty often supports gold and miners/ETFs. * Geopolitics: This looks more like U.S.–China pressure than pure commodities. Expect higher risk premia, defense names bid, and swings in rare earths/critical minerals on export-control narratives. * Power/AI: Backup generation demand is real, but fuel logistics and capex are multi-quarter. GNRC/CMI can benefit from deployments; it’s not an overnight fix for the grid. Bottom line: price in more volatility and be selective across energy, defense, and equipment instead of assuming a clean “oil flood” or a gold collapse.
CVX, PLTR, HAL are some stocks that might have a good day...
Q for you then with your experience. Ive been trading and investing for 15ish years. In my experience sometimes the easiest most obvious big trend, trades really do work quite well. For example, you could buy AAPL in '15 on a couple qs of slowing iPhone sales AFTER buffet bought it and showed up on the 13s. You could buy MRNA and BioNTech AFTER we knew the vax was gonna work and still make a huge return. Same for WFH stocks like zoom after it was clear WFH was gonna be a thing The travel names when it was already apparent people were booking trips again NVDA , AFTER chatGPT came out and AI was the hot thing. LLY well after hundreds of articles and everyone plus their sister on GLP1 Euro weapons companies well into Ukraine war and re-arming under way. So this trade is a simple one, yes, but does HAL and VLO make sense even if it's kinda obvious and consensus?
I’ll be scoping out oil services companies like SLB, BKR and HAL
I would go with Halliburton HAL as they already have feet on the ground there and have always maintained a presence in Venezuela. The US won't immediately focus or work on new wells, they will focus on workovers and recompleting old stagnated wells on land and this is HALs bread and butter, their expertise in hydraulic fracturing and well intervention is exactly what is needed to get oil out of existing dilapidated infrastructure and as a US based company with deep ties to american energy policy, Halliburton is normally the preferred when the US government is "managing" a reconstruction. They're are already positioning themselves as a preferred creditor in legal fillings to ensure they get paid first as the new oil revenue starts flowing.
Dude, In theory, US oil companies are to be big beneficiaries of the Venezuela oil grab. But things are not so simple: 1. Infrastructure in V is very bad. Massive investments needed to expand current production and these are likely to take years, before any benefits for the likes of majors such as Chevron and Exxon can be seen. Near-term, the likes of SLB and HAL, being the sellers of shovels, are the best bets. 2. Immediate term, current V production can now be released into the unsanctioned global crude oil market. This has the effect of lowering crude oil prices further, and of course negatively impacting producers such as Chevron, Exxon and US shale producers. 3. The vast majority of country’s production and reserves are the lower-quality heavy, sour crude, which sells in the market **below** WTI. Hence less profitable for those involved. Happy punting, albeit don’t get your hopes too high.
Oil services will pop, they're gonna build the hell out of that basin and retrofit all the technology. SLB and HAL are gonna go crazy. Of course I sold my SLB position last week.
Yes and I am looking at Schlumberger SLB too, SLB will be the brains of the operation and they have the technology to start new wells in Venezuela and they have the technology to get to hard to reach oil, I will be looking to hold both SLB and HAL for the next 8 months. A refinery to look at is Valero VLO as these already have the infrastructure to refine venuzelas type of oil. They are one of the few refineries that can refine heavy crude.