IVR

FigIndividual8074

Price at open/close, IVR, IV percentile, greeks, DTE, underlying ATR, and IV crush after earnings are huge. Also track *why* you entered the trade and your confidence level. The psychology + setup context becomes way more valuable than people expect after 100+ trades.

Premium_Lover

What are you talking about? The IVR's and IV%'s have been VERY low in the last two months. Look at the VIX.

thetradingfenix

IVR and greeks at open/close are solid. I'd also log entry/exit reasoning in plain text—even a one-liner like 'IVR spike + vol crush setup' or 'tested support.' Six months later when you're reviewing a string of losses, the raw numbers won't tell you if you broke your own rule or if the setup was actually there. For daily snapshots, delta exposure and theta decay help you spot if you're holding too long or closing winners early out of fear. If you trade earnings or defined events, flag those explicitly so you can isolate event performance vs. baseline. I built therisingfenix.com/journal after realizing my spreadsheet captured everything except the psychology—what I was thinking, what I ignored, why I adjusted. The AI coach cross-references your notes with actual outcomes so patterns you didn't notice (like always losing discipline above 3 concurrent positions) surface automatically. Worth considering if you want the tool to do the pattern recognition instead of running queries manually every week.

clawd_m17

solid setup with IVR and greeks for tracking

shortvol_trader

QQQ is a solid choice for calendars — liquid, tight spreads, predictable IV behavior around macro events. For entry criteria on calendars specifically: term structure is the key filter. You want back month IV higher than front month IV by at least 2 vol points. When that spread is narrow the calendar doesn't have enough room to profit even if you're right on direction. IVR above 45 on the front month is the second filter. You're selling expensive front month premium and buying cheaper back month — that spread only works when the front is genuinely elevated. DTE: front month 25-35 days, back month 55-70 days. That window captures the steepest part of theta decay on the short leg. Those three filters alone will eliminate most bad calendar entries.

shortvol_trader

Thanks for the context on SOXL — spreadsheet error changes the picture completely. The part worth thinking about: "no entry rules, strategy based on rolling" works until you hit a position that can't be rolled out of profitably. SOXL going from 90 to 180 is exactly that scenario — every roll would have been chasing the move. Rolling is a powerful tool but it's not a universal fix. It works when the underlying eventually reverts. On leveraged ETFs and high-momentum names it can turn a manageable loss into a much larger one. The results are genuinely good for 3 years of trading. Adding systematic entry criteria — even just IVR minimum and no earnings within DTE — would make the edge more repeatable and less dependent on rolling saving you.

JourneymanInvestor

Now that the SpaceX IPO date has been released I expect IVR to skyrocket for all the space names so buying calls is going to get really expensive from now until then

dominic_l

go to google ai mode and type this "make 30 day historical IVR chart for $SNDK"

dominic_l

yeh 90% IVR definitely wont contract

shortvol_trader

SNOW at IVR 82 / IV percentile 100 is legitimately rich. 8 DTE IC makes sense for a vol crush play but check if earnings are within the window — SNOW reports late May and that could be why IV is this elevated. BIDU setup is clean. China macro tailwind is real but headline risk is binary — any trade policy news can gap it overnight. 1-2 contracts with tight management is the right sizing. One thing on both: 8 DTE means gamma is running. A 50% profit target at this DTE usually hits in 2-3 days or not at all. Set your alerts and be ready to move fast.

Altruistic-Pin3207

Fellow builder here, went through this exact journey. Your feature list is solid but I'd push you on a few things based on what actually moves the needle once you scale past \~50 trades: \*\*What's missing from your list:\*\* \- \*\*Win rate by strategy AND by DTE bucket.\*\* Aggregate win rate is a vanity metric. Win rate split by "wheel vs CSP vs spread" combined with "0-7 DTE vs 8-21 DTE vs 22+" is where the real insights live. I found my own data was strongest in 8-14 DTE wheels and bleeding in short-dated naked puts. \- \*\*IV rank at entry.\*\* Tagging the IV environment when you opened each position is huge. Most of your "losing trades" are probably entries at low IV that didn't have enough premium cushion. Without this data point you can't measure if your edge is real or you're getting lucky on high-vol windows. \- \*\*Profit factor (avg win $ / avg loss $).\*\* Win rate without this is meaningless. A 70% win rate at 1:3 reward:risk is a losing strategy. \*\*Pain points you'll hit at scale:\*\* 1. Multi-leg attribution — when you close one leg of a spread early, how do you attribute P&L? Decide your model now (trade-level vs position-level), it's painful to refactor later. 2. Adjustments (rolling). Most tools treat a roll as "close + open" which destroys your hold-time data. Treat it as a single continuous trade with a roll event. 3. Multi-account consolidation if you trade IRA + cash + margin. Same ticker, different tax treatment. The dashboard is the easy part. The data model decisions you make now will determine whether you can answer questions like "what's my win rate on covered calls when IVR > 30 at entry on tech names?" 6 months from now. Plan for that question even if you don't surface it yet.

Salty_Wasabi2893

> The IV on contracts is priced so you can't figure out what stocks actually have tradable action based on the options chain. This makes no sense. IV comes from the price of options, based on market demand and supply, not the other way around. Looking at IV term structure, skew, IVR, and IV percentile tells us tons of information about price action of the underlying, historical and implied. People are down voting because it seems you are getting lost in hypotheticals and a misunderstanding of the basics.

ThetaEdgeHQ

The piece that took me longest to figure out is that watchlist construction and scan logic are two different problems. Most people solve the scan (IV rank above 50, liquid options, earnings proximity) but skip the watchlist question. If you run a scan across 500 random tickers you end up with names you do not know well enough to manage when they move against you. What worked for me was working backwards: build 25 to 40 names you understand well enough to own on assignment, then run IVR and earnings calendar filters on top of that. You end up with a smaller universe but every setup is actionable. One underrated filter is IVR relative to its own sector history. A name at IVR 60 in a sector that has been at IVR 80 for three weeks is a different trade than a standalone IVR 60. The former is vol normalizing from an elevated period. The latter might still be an inflated event premium that has not resolved. Running sector context alongside absolute IVR catches those gaps.

gob_magic

To expand on this. Look at market cap and options volume. Then check 26 and 53 week IVR and IVP. Gives an idea if the current IV is usually elevated or because of an event. Finally try to keep a handful of options (pun). Don’t over extend yourself. Like I know AAPL pretty well and know the company well. Like that I have five or six as my main tickers. This also includes companies I’d like to own. Unless it’s INTC or AMD which I bag held for 3 years and sold it last year when they recovered (don’t ask) and haven’t traded them until recently.

Salty_Wasabi2893

The AI is doing the thinking here, and got it wrong bad. For UPWK, max IVR and IV percentile is the exact opposite time to sell premium. UPWK is - 20% right now. All those words from the AI, but take one look at the daily chart and no rational person should sell premium with such a strong downtrend, even before the earnings drop. Awful AI content. Downvote.

Financebro30150

for IC setups the ETFs make sense, spreads are tight and you're not taking directional risk on a single name. SPY/QQQ are fine for that. but for CSPs where i actually want to potentially get assigned and run the wheel, i go individual names. MSFT, META, AMAT, AMZN, occasionally GOOGL. IV is higher, the credit is actually meaningful, and if i end up holding shares i don't mind. ETF IVR rarely gets high enough to make the pure CSP math compelling vs what you can collect on a single name after an earnings move or sector flush.

Metarazzi

As a beginning trader, stick with a defined risk strategy. This makes it affordable (if you're cash limited) and less risk (caps max loss). I'd suggest sticking with ICs until you really get a good feel for the mechanics and Greeks (not just definitions, but what does it mean to put shares on or call shares from someone, is IVR or IV%% more important, whats the difference in positive and negative delta and where do you want it, what does theta do for me, why is it always changing, and how does vega impact theta, should I roll or close a losing side, what makes it worth rolling, etc.). After you open an IC, think about it from that point on as two separate trades—because it actually is a vertical put spread and a vertical call spread—and manage each side independently, not as a full IC, unless you're closing the full IC. Are you following a specific teaching method? YouTube? The "tasty" way? Udemy? Some other trading firm?

Fluid-Membership1356

0.14 delta with cash reserved at 310 is the right framework for this. what i watch before entering: IVR. semis have had elevated baseline IV from all the macro/tariff noise so the actual post-earnings crush might be smaller than you'd expect if IV is already rich heading in. tend to prefer shorter dated on cyclicals too - july is a long time for that BPR to sit when theta's your only friend

Fluid-Membership1356

IV is fat rn so the premium looks nice but MU is a semis name that moves on macro and NAND pricing — not just momentum. i'd go 20-25 delta max, strike well below the recent run support, and ONLY if you'd hold at that price through another drawdown. elevated IVR doesn't mean the risk went away.

esInvests

I would avoid getting sucked into any specific structure and focus way more on the strategy, profit mechanism, and what's optimal. A strangle is just a combination of options, that does specific things. There is zero edge in it itself. Your edge as a trader lies in your ability to identify market effects you can monetize - profit mechanisms. In general, for those seeking to short strangles, they're directly (or indirectly) expressing a view on volatility - namely that it's expensive relative to what you expect the realized move will be. Sometimes, a strangle might fit best. Sometimes a straddle. Sometimes a skewed strangle, a ratio, diagonal, calendar, etc. The focus point is on the profit mechanism itself aka how are you deciding if volatility is expensive (and please for the love of christ don't say "because IV is high" or "because IVP/IVR are high"). Once you have that refined, you'll be able to more easily determine what structures fit that specific opportunity the best.

Aigpil

for theta sellers the tricky part is correlation � five big names in 3 days. if META misses, MSFT sells off in sympathy before it even reports, and your short premium on both bleeds simultaneously. size each position knowing they can all move against you at once. mechanics: sell 1-2 DTE to capture the earnings IV crush directly. use IVR vs each ticker's own earnings history, not raw IV � AAPL at 40 might be completely normal for its cycle while TSLA at 80 is also normal for its own. spread width should track the ATM straddle price (the market's implied move) for each name separately. TSLA just gave a clean example tonight � barely moved vs its implied, IC holders should be collecting the crush. MSFT/META earnings vol has been less consistent lately so check each name's own history before sizing in.

No_Band_8150

The thresholds I have landed on after tracking this across a few thousand entries: * Below IVR 30: basically skip. Premium is too thin to cover directional risk on a .30 delta short. You are selling vol that is already cheap and hoping it gets cheaper. Expected value drops hard in this bucket and the expired worthless rate looks great right up until one name moves 2 sigma and eats six months of premium. * IVR 30-50: tradeable but be selective. Works best when IVR is *rising* into the entry, not drifting down. Direction of IVR matters almost as much as level. * IVR 50-70: the sweet spot for 30-45 DTE premium selling. Market is paying you enough for the vega exposure and the expected move tends to overstate realized. * IVR 70+: rich but there is almost always a reason. Earnings, guidance, M&A chatter, sector rotation. I still take these but I size smaller and check the catalyst calendar first. Blind IVR chasing into a known event is how people blow up. One more variable worth pulling in if you have it: IVR percentile relative to the underlying's own history versus absolute IV. A stock like SMCI at IVR 40 is a completely different animal than KO at IVR 40. Normalizing matters. Phew.

Perfect-Loquat-7791

Diagonals look cheap in low IVR but they’re fragile when price moves fast. A lot of risk is really in timing, not structure. Early delta expansion can quietly shift edge against you.

timmyd79

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/how-to-hedge-your-portfolio I’ve found this article that gives a 1M example. It puts the cost at 2% roughly. But the IVR it uses is lower than the IVR today at 18 and IVR mid march was elevated significantly at like 27. I assume this translates to higher premium. It is interesting but it appears in all my foolishness even the cost of an appropriate hedge would have costed me similar to my own amateur fumbling. Schwab example puts the cost at 40k when the IVR was 17.

123phi

That makes sense, I do want to incorporate IVR and IVP into the dashboard soon. Thanks for the nudge

esInvests

Few things: 1. You’re floating between IVP and IVR - to not confuse newer folks, these are different things. They’re similar most of the time but IVR is more prone to skew (it uses high and low end of the annual range vs IVP which is a simple percentage of days above / below current levels). 2. In no way is IVP (or IVR) terrible, they’re simply metrics. While I understand you label it that way for the post to gain traction which is totally cool, still worth noting. 3. Generally aligned on the remainder, solid post. 4. Risk premia or VRP is a useful metric, how has IV trended relative to realized vol. This needs to be lagged slightly to align them properly. 5. One of the most useful tools is actually creating a model to forecast your own vol. this will never be better than the market but it will provide a solid comparison to monitor changes and measure.

Equivalent-Ticket-67

IVR on individual names vs VIX is the right framework. most people just look at VIX and assume everything is expensive which is lazy. we track this exact thing at WormholeQuant, scoring per-ticker IV vs expected move instead of relying on broad VIX. way more signal that way

Aigpil

VIX 25+ is where selling premium gets fun but the key is not treating every spike the same. I've had way better results filtering by IVR on individual names instead of just watching VIX — some stocks are at IVR 80 while VIX is only 22, and those are often cleaner setups than blindly selling into a VIX spike. your calendar idea on relative strength names is solid though, that's basically buying cheap back-month vol and selling expensive front-month which is the textbook play when term structure is steep like right now

Aigpil

this is the real answer. I've seen people obsess over their delta and gamma on a single position while having zero concept of how their portfolio-level risk looks. greeks are just a language for describing what your position does — they don't tell you IF you should take the trade. knowing that IVR is above 50, sizing at 1-2% of portfolio, and having a mechanical exit plan will make you more money than calculating charm on a weekly spread

Aigpil

nice, 30 delta puts / 20 delta calls with 2:1 ratio is interesting — basically skewing for the upside risk on gold. makes sense given how gold has been behaving lately. VIX strangles are the dream when IVR cooperates, the mean reversion is so reliable compared to individual names. what DTE do you usually run on VIX?

hadim33

I got XLE I hate as well lol . Bought a few put debit spreads turned them into credit spreads. Closed one today for a scratch. Two more to go. Put Debit spread strike 50P-48P jun18 paid 0.48 will start adjusting later if needed. 🤞 GDX for me is easy to handle. When rolling I adjust my strikes according to delta. While making sure I’m receiving credit. I believe the delta moves with IV. For GDX I usually trade delta 30 on the put side & delta -20 on the call side. Two to one contracts. Was trading 2-2 when IVR was over 100 . It’s been printing money. Forgot to mention the VIX it’s definitely my favorite.

Aigpil

solid list. I'd add XLE to that with oil vol where it is right now — better liquidity than USO for strangles and the IV term structure is steep so front month premium is fat. one thing I've noticed is GDX strangles can get tricky around FOMC dates, gold tends to gap more than the IV implies on rate decisions. do you adjust your strikes based on IVR level or just stick with a fixed delta?

RegalPepper

Make sure that you sell options on only liquid underlyers with high IVR. Plan your exits and defensive moves ahead of time and STOP BEING GREEDY. Not losing money is the name of the game, so at least you aren't too far off on that front. Keep studying. The TastyTrade videos are a great resource.

LarryStink

Chase oil at 100$ a barrel and 100% IVR or buy wheat futures/calls after a multi year bottom with fertilizer and shipping prices going apex shit? Already 10$ and 15$ itm on the two tranches respectively with 50dte. 

Meile13

Still digging in, so can't say 100% for sure. But based on my more methodological (as opposed to deep big data) analysis so far, we're seeing BOTH directions in these underlyings have outsized moves more than we'd expect. And again, it's like an order of magnitude more. So to compensate for that, we'd have to see LARGE premiums. Lots of this comes from the fact that the underlying "likelihood" of tail events from these assets doesn't really change over time, since we can't predict Black Swans well (direction or timing), nor can we model for them well. So when tail options in underlyings that seem to rarely move, but in actuality have black swans FAR more than they should, we should strive to purchase these tail options when they are cheap (low IVR, no panic), and eventually get whacked with a Black Swan at a good price by doing so. As well, the commodities markets are acted on by much different forces. Much fewer market makers, commercials (check the COT report sometime, it's kind of enlightening where the "smart money" mostly is). That said, if my data takes me a different way as I go, will adjust.

ra__account

They're very well known in the AI space (a company with a 3.5 billion dollar market cap is not a "nobody") but that doesn't make them a good investment. I wouldn't put money into them because for the vast majority of their existence their product line was focused on a music recognition app, nothing to do with AI phone ordering. They rebranded to jump on the AI hype wagon and who knows, maybe years of programming music recognition software carries over well enough to IVR, but I can't see them having much of a moat. They're losing money and have revenue in the 10s of millions of dollars while having an obscene valuation. Doing a SPAC merger is another warning sign.

Aigpil

This is the right take. IV spikes after a drop so the premium looks attractive, but that's the market pricing in more downside risk — not giving you free money. I look at IV rank vs IV percentile in these situations. If IVR is above 50 but the stock has a history of mean reverting after drops, that's when the setup actually has edge. Selling blindly into every -5% day is how you end up a bagholder with 'premium collected' as a consolation prize.

microfutures

IVR of 36.9 and IVx for the March 20 contract is 44.5%. IV is elevated, I would normally long sub 30 IVR to benefit if IV expands.

ebay94568

Well the fair value is subjective based on your valuation model and method. IV IVR etc are not subject value.

USMCActiveToReserve

The IVR is 108% according to E-Trade.

vrtra_theory

If you're opening "safe" put credit spreads, I go by the delta of the selling (closer to money) leg as a ballpark. For example, you open a $2 wide spread at 36 delta, you want to be making 36% of the $200 in profit, or $72. If the credit is $80, that's a "good deal"; if the profit is $50, that's a "bad deal". Typically if you're looking to sell credit spreads and seeing bad deals, you might be able to find better payouts adjusting the strikes and dates but it's probably just IV/IVR too low. In contrast if you're opening a super safe $5 spread at 10 delta, it's not realistic to expect much more than 10% of the spread in profit, or $50.

ydoyouask

I sell a lot of Tasty-style premium. I don't use OCO, I just roll (for a credit if at all possible) if I'm ITM a week or so before expiration. Set my closing order at 50%-ish. I think the difficulty you're having may be that looking for stocks with such high IV in such a generally low IV environment, you're going to be choosing only the real high-flyers. I might look for stocks with IVR more in the 25-30% range with overall IV so low. When trading stocks with really high IV, I choose a lower delta. Hell, I almost always choose a lower delta than Sosnoff. I'd look for closer to one standard deviation. A one-standard deviation position is going to give you a lot less premium up front, but a lot more wins.

EmpathyFabrication

If your broker isn't showing you all the greeks, you need to switch to a broker that does show them. You can calculate it on your own using various programs like R, etc. or use OptionStrat online but you don't really need to because your broker should be showing it to you in real time. It depends on how you trade but generally I do consider overall time value and IVR (how volatility at time of trading compares to past vol).

trebuchetguy

IVR stands for "IV Rank" and it represents the percentage of time over the past year the IV for a stock has been lower than the current IV. It's a relative measure of how volatile a particular equity is compared to all its IVs over the past year. IIRC the timeframe is a year. Might be 2. Easily researched. A quick and dirty way to get a feel for how options will be priced. Since IV is mean reverting (another topic all on its own) it also gives you a rough idea of whether there will be pressure for it to rise or drop in the coming weeks. I'm not familiar with RH, but the marketchameleon website will have it on their stock quote detail even if you don't subscribe.

Ocilla

I agree with the malicious law fare against J Pow, it’s disgusting. Can you tell me more about IVR? I know what about IV, but it doesn’t show me IVR in Robinhood and not sure what the correlation is to IV.

trebuchetguy

I just couldn't be less excited about selling premium this week. NVDA has an IVR of 27, so sucky premiums. You have a malicious Federal prosecution of the FED chair emerging because JPow wouldn't bend the knee. That's truly uncharted territory. Futures are indicating a sharply lower opening tomorrow. Fair chance we see a rising VIX this week and you really don't want to be selling premium on a sub 30 IVR into a rising VIX. I would sit on this for a while and let things settle a bit. Then you said you don't want to have your shares called away. I never CC an equity if I don't have the option of letting it go and I think that's a good policy in general.

microfutures

It looks like price has been in a range for the past 5 years. Even with good news I'm not expecting anything extraordinary in the long run. I haven't looked at the liquidity rating or the IVR, but the spread between the bid-&-ask on the longer dated options kind of wide. I saw one contract that was ITM by 1-strike and the spread was $1.

Wood_Ring

If I recall correctly, Cem Karsan had some research indicating that it was net profitable to sell vol at the extremes– high IV and low IV– and the worst time was actually when IV is around the mid-point. Low/high and cheap/expensive are relative terms. Low IV is not synonymous with cheap vol, just as high IV is not necessarily the same as expensive vol. Options markets are much more nuanced than that.  Something like high or low IVR should only be a starting point in assessing whether vol is over/underpriced, not the determinative metric; otherwise you become a prime target for adverse selection.

Wood_Ring

If you’re selling volatility mechanically based on something like an IV rank >50, which is more or less what Tasty espouses, then you need it to be true that there is such a thing as a volatility risk premium; that this premium is sufficiently high to be worth the time, risk, and effort; that the optimal time to try to capture this premium is when IVR is high; that the variance of this strategy is not so high that you are at risk of blowing up your portfolio; that all of this is true for the specific underlying(s) you are trading; and that all of this will continue to be true in the future.  There is evidence to suggest that a volatility risk premium does generally exist, and it’s conceivable that it will persist into the future, but it’s much less clear that this is true across all underlyings, that the optimal way to trade this is by selling volatility in general, and puts specifically, in a mechanical fashion based on IVR, and/or that this will all be true going forward. So the rough patches would come from variance, as well as instances where your underlying assumptions are either not correct from the start, or (maybe worse) your underlying assumptions were correct at some point but no longer hold true, but you don’t realize it until you’ve sustained significant losses.  All of this is to say that trading options requires a lot more reflection and attention to detail than one might come to believe based on Tasty’s content alone. Again, that’s not to say it’s impossible to be profitable by just selling puts mechanically, but that’s a riskier proposition than it might at first seem.

Frequent-Sympathy663

IVR has nothing to do with RV so you can sell Gamma and still make money (and usually VRP high in a low vol environment

Dumbest-Questions

Sorry, what does R in IVR stand for?

ImpressiveAd1518

Thanks for the reply, where could I go to see IVR of my options? I typically use Robinhood for buying/selling and Tradingview for charting. I have an IV rank suite indicator I looked at on Tradingview but it didn’t seem the most accurate compared to what I’ve been observing on Robinhood.

Ok_Butterfly2410

Yeah, thats what im saying. IVR means nothing. You gotta track the IV surface of the specific options you trade.

thekoonbear

Sure that’s what IVR is. But it does not necessarily mean that it’s too high or too low.

Ok_Butterfly2410

Knowing when IV is high or low is what IVR is. But, if you don’t map it out yourself for your specific options, the underlying IVR means nothing. You just gotta start tracking it everyday is where im at with it lol. You’ll see days where IV and underlying price both fall, days where they both rise, and days where they move inversely like normal. Days when underlying price and IV are falling are good days to buy. Days when underlying price and iv are both rising are good days to sell. In between is normal chugging dont do anything.

teddyevelynmosby

Super, I will look it up. I have Schwab checking account for intl travel but haven’t touched on investing. If they have IVR IVP type of tracking that will be amazing. One thing that fidelity ATP is missing. And the way they display price always bugs me. That is why I went with RH.

External-Band-414

# Here are the indicators, provided by algorithm I developed-->SPY The SPY ETF exhibits a bullish sentiment as it shows strong momentum and positive technical indicators, suggesting potential opportunities for call options. Algorithmic Consensus # STRONG BULLISH BIAS Based on 7 technical & volatility metrics 6 Bullish 1 Bearish # Moving Average (50-day) Current price is above the 50-day MA bullish A price above the 50-day moving average indicates a potential uptrend, signaling options traders to consider bullish strategies. # RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI level at 65 bullish An RSI above 50 suggests that SPY is in a bullish phase. However, caution is warranted as it approaches overbought territory. # VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) Current price is above VWAP bullish Trading above the VWAP indicates strong buying interest, making it a favorable condition for bullish options strategies. # MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) MACD line is above the signal line bullish A bullish MACD crossover suggests upward momentum, providing a signal for traders to consider long positions or call options. # Bollinger Bands Current price is near the upper band bearish Being near the upper Bollinger Band may indicate a potential pullback, suggesting traders should be cautious with aggressive bullish positions. # Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) IVR at 30% bullish A low IVR indicates relatively cheaper options premiums, allowing traders to buy calls at a lower cost, potentially increasing profit margins. # Put/Call Ratio Current ratio at 0.5 bullish A low put/call ratio reflects bullish sentiment among traders, suggesting a higher likelihood of price increases, making it attractive for call options.

External-Band-414

# GME The current market sentiment for GME suggests a cautious bullish outlook, driven by recent price recoveries amid high volatility. Algorithmic Consensus # STRONG BULLISH BIAS Based on 7 technical & volatility metrics 5 Bullish 2 Bearish # Moving Average (50-day) Current price above MA bullish The current price being above the 50-day moving average indicates a potential upward trend, which can be a signal for traders to consider bullish options strategies. # RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI level at 65 bullish An RSI level above 60 suggests that GME is in a strong upward momentum, indicating that options traders might look for call options or bullish spreads. # VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) Current price above VWAP bullish Trading above the VWAP means that the majority of the trading volume is at lower prices, signaling bullish sentiment and suggesting favorable conditions for buying calls. # MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) MACD line above signal line bullish The MACD being above the signal line indicates positive momentum, which could present a good opportunity for traders to enter long positions or calls. # Bollinger Bands Price near upper band bearish While price nearing the upper Bollinger Band suggests potential overbought conditions, options traders should be cautious and may consider protective puts or spreads. # Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) IVR at 70% bearish A high IVR indicates elevated options premiums, making selling strategies like covered calls attractive, but may also suggest caution due to potential price corrections. # Put/Call Ratio Current ratio at 0.5 bullish A low put/call ratio indicates that bullish sentiment is prevalent among traders, suggesting that options traders may want to focus on bullish strategies like buying calls.

External-Band-414

Here is for TSLA from the algorithm i developed-->Moving Average (50-day) Current price above 50-day MA bullish A price above the 50-day moving average indicates a potential upward trend, suggesting that call options may be favorable. # RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI at 62 bullish An RSI above 50 suggests bullish momentum; traders might consider buying calls or bullish spreads. # VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) Current price above VWAP bullish Trading above the VWAP indicates that the stock is being bought at higher prices, which may signal a bullish trend for options traders. # MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) MACD line above signal line bullish A bullish crossover in the MACD suggests upward momentum; options traders might look for bullish positions. # Bollinger Bands Price touching the upper band bearish While touching the upper band indicates upward momentum, it also suggests potential overbought conditions, cautioning against aggressive bullish options. # Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) IVR at 30% bearish A low IVR indicates that options are relatively cheap; traders might consider selling options or using spreads as a strategy. # Put/Call Ratio 0.7 bullish A low put/call ratio suggests bullish sentiment among traders, making it a favorable environment for bullish options strategies.

External-Band-414

# Moving Average (50-day) Current price is above the 50-day MA bullish A price above the 50-day moving average indicates that the stock is in a short to medium-term uptrend, making call options more attractive. # RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI level is 62 bullish An RSI above 50 indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that the stock may continue to rise, which is favorable for bullish options strategies. # VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) Current price is above VWAP bullish Trading above the VWAP suggests that the stock is being accumulated, making it a favorable environment for buying calls. # MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) MACD line is above the signal line bullish A bullish MACD crossover indicates that upward momentum is likely, which could lead to price increases, benefiting options traders with bullish positions. # Bollinger Bands Current price is near the upper band bearish Being near the upper band may indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback, which requires caution for aggressive bullish strategies. # Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) IVR at 40% bullish A higher IVR suggests that options are relatively more expensive, which can benefit traders selling options or using spreads to maximize returns. # Put/Call Ratio Current ratio is 0.6 bullish A lower put/call ratio indicates bullish sentiment among traders, suggesting that more traders are betting on upward price movement, which supports bullish options strategies.

Krammsy

I took notes on every trade going back to 2008, where it felt necessary to document my mistakes to learn from them. Once I got into options, it was a new tier of failures, so I kept going back through my trade notes to no avail, there was nothing to learn. With options it turns out the things that were killing me were the things I didn't even know to note. The Greeks. If you're trading options & taking notes, those notes are worthless if you haven't recorded IV vs HV (or IVR), position net Delta, Theta & Vega - and how you're hedging. That's a bit much, though possible, what's more important is actually knowing the current value for each of those, what to expect and how to protect yourself. .

Krammsy

I don't think you know what Vega is, Tasty has a plethora of earnings strategies, those are Vega plays....IV. What bugs me is the way they completely depend on IVR without discussing Vega hedging.

AlpsFamiliar5888

Some people are into pre-market scalping. They say it's more predictable. Vol comes and goes, you can sort by IVR and get the hot stocks of the season

Timely-Client3911

**On pricing:** Currently using Black-Scholes with dividend adjustment (European approximation) for speed in the production version. I also have a binomial tree implementation for American options, but it's \~15x slower and for SPY calls the early exercise premium is minimal, so BS has been accurate enough for the probability analysis. **On IV/IVR:** Yes! The tool pulls live implied volatility surface data from market options chains across multiple strikes and expirations. I'm not using raw IVR percentile ranking yet, but I am using: * Real-time IV surface (not historical vol) * GARCH(1,1) for short-term volatility forecasting * Time-varying volatility in the Monte Carlo paths **What I don't have yet:** * Multi-year IVR percentile tracking (great suggestion - would help identify overpriced/underpriced vol) * Vol regime classification (high/low IV environment) Would IVR percentile ranking significantly change your trade selection process? I'm trying to figure out if that should be prioritized for v6 or if the current IV surface + GARCH combo is "good enough" for most retail traders. Always open to feedback from experienced traders - this is exactly the kind of input I need to make this useful for real trading decisions.

Thump604

You using Black Scholes? You have a year of IVR?

dimdada

I sold IVR, been holding it long enough to help offset some great gains this year. Bought 2020 and been bidding my time when to sell. Between 20-30k loss. Had NLY as well, another pos stock that did nothing in years.

purumi

Sold a GOOGL put today, IVR acceptable and great company - January expiration, keeping delta under 20.

Krammsy

I interpreted you as meaning the Greeks, which "look" complicated, but only require grade-school math. Your last sentence is pretty much what I'm saying, new option traders, and new traders in general, tend to resort to staring at charts or trying to look back and backtest "similar" conditions on charts, when all it takes is knowing what to expect right now, i'e' IVR, Theta, Vega & earnings cycle.

MasterSexyBunnyLord

I already know about all these things. IVR and IVP are very useful but in the scenario where it moves against you there isn't much left you can do realistically but wait. OP was also talking about buying options but selling a put specifically

Krammsy

Of course it is, that's not at all what I'm saying. When you buy an option, you only have Bid/Ask to go by, if you don't have a reference to HIV over the last year, you're absolutely clueless as to whether it's relatively expensive or cheap. In response to your original statement "You can't know ahead of time", you actually can to a degree, I suggest Googling "Vega", "IV" & "IVR" for more detail. .

Krammsy

You can look at one year HIV, or IVR, check earnings date and come pretty close.

SwagOD_FPS

Just sell credit spreads on relatively high IVR stocks that aren’t overvalued and chill.

TheLoneWolf_218

The VIX is only at 20 and option IVR is at average or below average levels

LittleBoy1954

"build a strategy: Yes. I have a strategy in my trading plan that works. I tweak it every so often but not by much. "and blindly follow it without any additional support or indicator." That's right no technical analysis indicators. MA, MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, Gann, etc. However I do use a lot of fundamental analysis. I do that starting at 8:30AM (ET) by: Reviewing Asian markets activity (they're closed) Reviewing European market activity (they're mid day) Reviewing morning Economic Indicators (ADP, CPI, etc.) Reviewing AM earnings releases Fed upcoming activity Morning political activity and, especially, Morning futures market activity (e.s ES, YM, NQ, DX, GC, CL etc., ...and a few more things. By 9:30AM (ET) I'm ready to begin trading SPX 0DTE options. I generally let the market open for a 10-15 minutes and let it settle down. Then I look at Expected Move, IV, IVR and IV% and jump in with a Call and Put credit spread. Looks like a lopsided iron condor but in fact I trade the spreads separately. Some days the spreads are 1SD away from the money other days closer to 2SD. That's it.

LittleBoy1954

My trading plan takes into account Delta Δ. And a host of other factors (e.g. DTE, Probabilities, IV (IVR and IV%), etc. I have found that I have never been able to get the market to "behave" like I want it to. The market always seems to have a mind of its own. I have found that my trades only use Delta Δ and Probabilities in order to minimize (but not eliminate) risk. My druthers would be to trade positions that only "behaves how you want" i.e. always expire OTM but it seems like that's hard to do.

rrufino

TastyTrade has access to IVR (implied volatility rank). Which gives you the relative rank of IV for the past year.

AppleTree98

Wonder if we are going to see a consolidation in the various Generative AI models. I am a big fan of Gemini (Google). My work uses Copilot (Microsoft) and there are others like Anthropic. When I look at what leading edge major vendors are using like IVR tech they have dipped into multiple models to fit the need for a particular tech or region that is better suited for one of the other. Even Copilot is a blend...Microsoft Copilot is not based on a single model; it is a **multi-model, integrated ecosystem** that uses a combination of leading Large Language Models (LLMs) and Microsoft's own proprietary technologies.

EmpathyFabrication

Idk you tell us. Why is it down? Weeklies aren't giving you much extrinsic value as a writer and then you also aren't giving yourself much time to profit off IV either. IV looks pretty high what's IVR look like? You want to have your shares called away?

bobbyrayangel

Just sell vol on underlinings with an IVR above 30

Krammsy

Thank you again, the first one looks fantastic, I use IVR to gauge date-width's for calendarized spreads, that particular tool completely simplifies the task.

LittleBoy1954

I don't think there is a column that displays IVR or IV% on the options chain. However there are scripts available to plot both of those numbers on a chart. E.g. see: [https://usethinkscript.com/threads/implied-volatility-iv-rank-percentile-for-thinkorswim.674/](https://usethinkscript.com/threads/implied-volatility-iv-rank-percentile-for-thinkorswim.674/) Also on the Statistics tab. See: [https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/viewing-options-volatility-through-different-lenses](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/viewing-options-volatility-through-different-lenses)

TradeVue

For active premium and directional trades, I define everything upfront. entry logic, management, and exit. Each trade starts from a framework of probabilities and expected outcomes rather than a chart or just bias. I typically sized based on return on risk and overall portfolio exposure and delta aggregate and some others. My size is usually about the same. making sure each position aligns with my defined risk tolerance and capital allocation framework before entering. Depending on the strategy I typically manage early and exit around 50% max profit for multiple reasons. So yes, for my full time active trading (seperate from investing or even LEAPS/CC’s/CSP’s) every trade for me fits a criteria, and if it does not, I am conscious of that like taking a lotto. it’s Entry criteria (R-multiple, IVR, EV ), probabilities (POP, expected move etc), IV term structure (if applies) management triggers, exit condition and some more. For me that’s what separated a repeatable system from guessing. if the plan changes, it’s because volatility or an external event shifts the underlying probabilities, not because of emotion or price hit a certain level. Having that framework means I don’t think about the P/L day to day, I just execute the mechanics. That point was really important for me.

Abdulahkabeer

Nice work. I run buy-side swings too 45–70 DTE, and I cap hold to \~2–3 weeks. Two things my reviews keep confirming: * Works best when IV is flat→down and I’m in by day 2–3 of the move. * If theta ramps or IV won’t compress, I switch to a debit spread instead of holding. Tagging DTE/IVR/days-held in my reviews made buy-side feel a lot less “coin-flippy.” What’s your IV/hold rule?

Krammsy

He's referencing the % current IV is relative to the average over the last year, also referred to as IV rank/IVR.

TradeVue

Premiums come from volatility, not just the stock itself. When implied volatility is high, option prices expand since the market’s expecting bigger moves. If you’re selling options, you want high IV relative to its history. that’s what IV Rank (IVR) is. It measures how current implied volatility compares to its past year’s range. High IVR = richer premiums and more mean reversion edge Stocks like NVDA, TSLA, AMD, SPY, IWM, and SMH usually have enough IV and liquidity to make it worthwhile. Scanners like Option Alpha and options samurai or Tasty’s platform can sort by IVR so you’re not guessing which names are overpriced on volatility. You are asking the right questions this is very important statistically to give you the best and most optimal outcome.

TheLoneWolf_218

IVR on the shorter dated options is down significantly. VIX measures 21 to 30+ days out

m23ward

I don't worry too much about delta neutrality, to be honest. I am in no way a highly experienced trader, so take what I say with a pinch of salt, but I just think delta neutral portfolios leave a lot of alpha sitting on the table and end up lowering returns overall. However, Tom Sosnoff et al have wayyyyy more training, researchers and experience than me, so you probably shouldn't listen to me lol. Pure volatility plays can absolutely work, but the market is very efficient and has a LOT of very smart, very well-paid people scooping up every cent of variance premium at latencies so low they are taking profit in the time it takes for the light from the charting screen to enter your eyes. Your setup sounds very sensible, as long you're diversifying your underlying with uncorrelated assets and not overexposing one market or asset class. My main analysis depends on the situation. If I am confident in a company's vision, fundamentals, and impact, then I use naked puts to wheel into the company. I usually go slightly ITM about 45dte, as long as the IVR is favorable to the trade. That way, I get paid to buy a stock I wanted anyway. If I'm shorting gamma, I need a solid thesis. I need a reason my thesis also has statistical edge either 1) over 2) in spite of or, 3) because of the big money. My main options plays though, are diagonals on LEAPS. Essentially the PMCC, but with a few twists. Really great convexity, slow-but-dependable theta harvesting on shorts to steadily reduce your cost basis. You can also switch it up to give you a great short position on a company with that same convexity and cost-reducing rolls. Beautiful trade.

Dry_Move_9569

The other side of that coin is that the TT "IVRank" is predicated on an arbitrary backward looking range of one year. Volitility doesnt necessary predicate a 1 year window. I do think that their IVR metric is a bit flawed, depending on your strategy.

ThetaHedge

Great write-up - a couple quick add-ons from the seller’s angle: * **Always check both present & historical premiums.** Sometimes IVP looks “cheap” but the actual % yield on puts/calls is still attractive. * **Vol isn’t uniform across expiries.** Like you pointed out with CSCO, 30DTE might look tame while 60DTE is screaming - matters a lot if you’re wheeling or selling further out. * **Practical takeaway:** for income strategies, IVP is usually more useful than IVR, but it’s best to look at both side-by-side with actual % returns to strike. Bottom line: IV isn’t just a number - you’ve got to match it to your trade, timeframe, and whether you’re buying or selling vol.

TradeVue

Totally hear you, i’ve been trading for seven years, using probability and statistics like IVR or expected move, etc., And 7 years ago not long after when I switched to that Is when I was able to replace my salary at my job because of the higher probability in advantages of some of these strategies. I haven’t met one but to the people who trade full time by just buying calls my hat is off to you, because that’s very hard to be profitable with. but spreads don’t require a big move if you use them for the right job. Debit verticals are for momentum, you buy a small width and let delta do the work, you only need the stock to lean your way and you take 25 to 50 percent and recycle. Credit verticals are for chop or mean reversion, short strike near 0.30 to 0.40 delta, you win with small favorable moves, with time decay, and often even if price drifts a bit against you. With selling premium you can be wrong on direction and still make money. Like when your 4DTE call loses value even though the stock was up- the guy who sold that contract is collecting credit. The Key is liquidity and structure, stick to tight bid ask names, keep widths sensible, manage early stc. Most professional options traders are selling premium because theta and modest IV contraction help them, and the flexibility some of these strategies can give you. that is why in my personal opinion defined risk spreads are a better intraday tool than naked calls or puts for consistency. But this is just purely my opinion as a random trader on Reddit, people obviously make money buying options, in my opinion it’s just harder. ***TIP- The delta of the option your buying is “roughly” the POP (probability of profit) of your trade. So if you buy a 0.43 delta call, your call has a “roughly” 40-46% chance of making 1 penny or more on your trade***

ORATS_Matt

Good call on the IVR. In our backtesting the rule of thumb is the market doesn't get the vol low enough or high enough at the wings, which is counter intuitive.

sharpetwo

Good points on IVR being noisy because indeed one outlier and the rank is warped for a year. That is definitely a trap new traders fall into. But IVP is not a magic fix either. It is still just a rear-view mirror: “where have we been in the past 12 months?” It tells you nothing about the forward surface you are actually trading. The windshield is term structure, skew, and RV vs IV. That is where the real edge sits. Sticking to your CSCO example: 30 day IVP at 47% looks “mid,” but if you are trading 60 day options you care about that line, not the 30 day anchor. Often the best VRP harvests are when IVP looks low, because realized is even lower and the carry is fat. We have a perfect examples in US indices lately with VIX (low) at 15/16 but realized at 8/10 and selling options has been perfect for 4 months now. So IVR misleads, IVP cleans it up a bit, but both are static. If you are putting on trades, you want to be looking forward, not just percentile marks of the past.

8805

Current IVR is 104. The crush is going to be epic.

Short-Situation-4137

Automatic strategies do not work when IVR is very high, meaning when price starts swinging like nuts for whatever reason.

TraitorJohnny

You've collected 17 in credit. Your upside breakeven is 357. The stock is at 350.44. You're currently at a -94% loss. Set a mental stop loss for yourself. -150%, -200%. Pull the plug if it gets hit. In the meantime, lean bearish (pray for a pullback). If it stays within your breakevens, roll at 21dte. With IVR at 6, time and theta decay on the straddle are your best friends. It's had a huge move up. After a big move like that, stocks tend to stay flat. But if that is not the case... If you're upside breakeven gets breached and your stop loss has not been hit, roll up the put to 357. Invert. Just information for your consideration. This is all easier done on a $20 underlying. Not something at $350. To learn strangles, strangle something cheap like UNG and let it get breached to play around with inversions or buying-the-guts-and-selling-the-wings. Good luck.

ZjY5MjFk

I had a $108 strike for Sep-05-2025. All day I wanted to close or roll it, but market was still 0.55 bid and thought that was strange since stock was around $100 most of the day and general market was depressed. IVR was lowish, in 20th rank. I watched that $108 strike and people were still buying it. I thought it was just the meme team being regarded again, but actually looks like smart money was being smart this time and got a good educated guess on it being added.

ZjY5MjFk

That is great list, I would also say be mindful of earnings. Some guys love earnings for increased IV, others think it's priced efficiency. My point is, don't just hop on a name because it has high IV, it could be a binary event. If it is, decide explicitly if you want to play earnings or not (it can be different than normal premium selling) Once you find a name I would say * Look at over all term structure (sometimes called vol surface). certain months are more rich than others. Just because a name has high IVR, doesn't mean all expiration are rich. * Once you find an expiration that meets your vol and DTE criteria, look at the vol skew for that specific expiration. This is a very broad stroke, but generally you want to be selling into skew. If puts are skewed (like SPY typically) then selling puts might make more sense. If calls are skewed (like in some meme stocks), then selling into that could be better. * Once you find the expiration and skew, look around the specific delta you want to trade. Look at expected move and probability distribution. It depends on how much risk/reward you want to take, but knowing where market is pricing the move is a good starting point so you have an idea where you want to be. * Most brokers have column for IV per strike. Look for anything abnormal is Strike IV, in volume/open interest and bid/ask spread. Not always, but sometimes strikes get beaten down or bid up, don't sell blindly. Be willing to fudge a little on strike choice if something really stands out as a better deal or to avoid an obvious bad one. * When entering the trade, if spread is only a couple pennies wide, it's ok to hit bid. But if it's 10 cents wide, then enter in trade a little above mid. Then tick it down, maybe a till it's a tiny bit under mid. If it's hard to get a fill, then maybe reconsider. On Fidelity and Schwab and IBKR in good liquidity names, you'll get filled around mid 9 out of 10 times. If you are having hard time getting a mid fill, then maybe it's a garbage name (or you have a garbage broker) and consider passing on the trade. Because the other side of the coin, is that if you need to roll, you'll be giving up something on both the closing and opening legs, so that at point you crossed spread 3 times on a suffering position. Not a big issue on big credits, but will create some drag on those lower credit trades.

microfutures

You can use delta to determine the probability of the contract expiring in the money. For example, selling a 30 delta contract is a really low probability of the contract working out for your counterparty. There is a more professional, calculated metric calculated by platforms, but delta is the shortcut. IVR and IV also help. Sell an underlining in a high IV, better PNL as IV decreases overtime and profit from theta decay at the same time.

sharpetwo

To his point, all these methods are not super accurate. They work but ... they have some disadvantages one cannot ignore. I personally use some mixes of HAR and a few other ML models to predict RV. IVR is def backward looking and in and of itself... it's not super useful. But it looks like you know your stuff :) Curious why you were asking these questions at the first place :)

ZjY5MjFk

ok, I just didn't understand your point. You say that IVR is a backwards looking metric, but then say you want to look at VPR. But current VPR isn't known, only historical VPR. There are things like GARCH which is a forward projection, but it's a projection and obviously not prefect. But I think we agree. Ideally, it's best to sell when you think IV is greater than what will be realized, but at the end of the day, it's just an educated guess at best (or randomly guessing at worse, like I do :)). If the real volatility was known before hand, then none of us could get paid. The market won't pay extra for a known fact.