IVR

Nima_from_graVIXor

You ve got 1/3 of ur max loss already. I would take advantage of high IVR and spread the position off, selling a leg for the earnings cycle. May be reducing my overall max Loss to half if the position tanks, and giving myself a decent chance of breaking even/ modest profit otherwise

Krammsy

Depends on the sector, VIX I always do OTM because they're cheaper, theta is lower and the VIX moves fast when it jumps. OTM options have more leverage, less Theta, but more likely to expire worthless. Regular equities often ITM, mind Theta is higher ITM, so I'll bump the ratio to 20%, more if IVR isn't bottomed, only for the fact that the underlying may not be volatile and if it expires ITM it's a bonus. For commodities like gold or gas, I'll use a leveraged ETF calculated by it's multiplier to a regular option's delta, such as a UNG put against BOIL.

TheInkDon1

I took a look at the chart and wasn't impressed with the 5y or the 1y, but what's pushing it up these last few days? I don't know much about Snapchat the company, and less about the app, but there's maybe a case to be made that it was an $80 stock 4y ago, so maybe it can get there again? Looking at the option chains, IV is pretty high, but not too crazy. I didn't look at IVR. The 352DTE 5C might be at about 80-delta, the AH numbers are kind of wonky. 4.70 Mid to buy that gives you nearly 2:1 leverage to shares. Coming in to 108DTE (3 months is as close as I buy Calls), the 17Oct7C for 2.78 does look sexy. Leverage: (9.35 / 2.78) x 0.86 (the delta) = 2.9 times So if SNAP goes up 0.66 like it did today, that Call goes up 1.90. And 1.91 divided by the purchase price is a 68% gain. If I bought that, I'd sell the 31DTE 26-delta 1Aug11.5C against it for 0.32. ROI is: 0.32 / 2.78 = 11.5% in a month. 135% apy. Very nice.

TradeVue

props to you for seeking information, stay curious. most people start by buying calls and puts and get frustrate their win rate isn’t there. Ive been there. the odds are just stacked against you when you’re long delta… you’re fighting time decay and implied volatility, so even when you’re “right,” the option doesn’t always pay. you can definitely make money buying, but when you’re selling, IV and theta start working for you instead of against you. so I found the best strategies for myself and my career through almost always collecting credit what worked best for me when I started moving toward full time was switching to structured strategies like credit spreads, short puts, and iron condors. they let you trade with a built in edge. instead of needing the stock to move big, you profit from it staying inside a range or even doing nothing. I’m sure you’ve had a call lose money even though the stock went up… the person who sold that option was “wrong” on direction and still got paid what works best for me now?: – iron condors and short strangles when IV was high and I wanted to stay neutral – high probability short puts on stocks I wouldn’t mind owning – ratio spreads for setups with a directional lean but extra room to be wrong – credit spreads for directional trades with defined risk and all of these are found and executed through metrics and stats like sigma, IVR, delta, expected move, etc. learning to trade without charts changed a lot for me, that’s just me personally I have nothing against TA at all. but yeah, I eventually found my groove through that. im nothing special, you can absolutely do it!

God_of_Theta

Undefined. I have general rules I follow though. I 100% of the time have positive theta. I open my spreads based on momentum, DCA more spreads until market moves other direction. I open spreads on the other side, all 1-3DTE. I leg into iron condors, calendar spreads, and butterfly positions. Which stradegy I leg into depends on my current delta/theta/gamma I look for the highest IV strikes and give them preference. I don’t follow the news (very closely), I follow IV and IVR. I.e VIX. and rely on the Greeks for every trade. Here is what my [trades on spy](https://optionstrat.com/lkyPpuYMZYIW) look like for Monday.

TradeVue

Nice work man, seriously. Love seeing people trading like this. Systematic premium selling with actual structure is where the real edge is and with that alone you’re already ahead of most people. That RDDT situation is textbook. capped upside pain is real but it’s also the cost of consistency. You traded mechanics and collected your rent, that’s the job. Covered calls and strangles on growth names like that are always going to be a balance between keeping your shares and harvesting income. Some people hate getting assigned, but I’d rather have steady premium than gamble on a moonshot. The upside always looks better in hindsight but you protected yourself and took high-probability profits. Also agree on stock selection mattering more than strike “perfection.” I generally try and sell outside the expected move but am always flexible. If the underlying has good IVR, theta will work itself out over time. You could chase 1-2% better deltas all day and still get run over by a bad earnings or news candle. Only thing I’d throw in, if you’re not already doing it may be worth it to consider scaling into your short strikes or managing early if you’ve got 50%+ of max profit with lots of time left. The philosophy I follow is trade small and trade often. Trade small to give yourself the ability to stretch your buying power through time enough to trade often, and if you trade often in a high probability setup, the law of large numbers will work in your favor. All about putting as many occurrences as you can in a high probability framework. Anyway keep posting these, this is the kind of content that really helps new traders. It’s refreshing to see, I rarely see much about any advanced or multi-leg strategies on here but then again I’ve only been here for 2 weeks. Anyways, cheers!

TradeVue

Yeah this is a solid idea and you’re thinking about it the right way. Selling 20 delta puts on oversold names gives you a decent buffer and high POP especially if you’re comfortable taking assignment on quality stocks that may or may not be at a good discount. BUT 8 DTE is pretty short so you’re going to get fast theta decay but also very little time for a bounce if the stock keeps bleeding a bit. I’d personally look at something like 21 to 30 DTE, (really 45 DTE and manage at 21 is what I follow), Just to let the trade breathe and have more time value if you need to roll. Also gives you more premium for the same strike. Try managing winners at 50% max profit to boost consistency and reduce risk. Trade small, trade often, trade high probability. And consider rolling positions around 21 DTE if they move against you but are still out of the money. Also, check IV rank before entering (if you don’t already) when the IVR is over 30 you’re getting paid properly. Keep your position size small to avoid getting overexposed if multiple puts go in the money. And stay mechanical don’t fall in love with the names, just follow your delta, RSI, IVR rules and let the system play out. That’s how you keep premium selling consistent and scalable over time. Also, you’re working with 50K so just make sure you’re not selling puts that would force you to take on too much exposure if more than one gets assigned. Like BRK and TMO are capital heavy names so maybe pair one of those with lower priced tickers too. Your logic is solid, you got it.

aka_rob

https://youtu.be/7pSw_qqyEXk?si=kSI09IVwlMgsqAbF I like this guy’s take on things. He also has an options crash course playlist on the tastylive page that’s worth going through. https://www.tastylive.com/concepts-strategies/vertical-spread is from the tastylive webpage as well. I will say that if you ignore some of their advice, it can go south quickly. Biggest one is paying attention to your short leg delta and the IVR of your underlying.

PapaCharlie9

"Good" might be a bit optimistic, but it's an indicator and something is better than nothing. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. IVP is only as good as the likelhood that the past is predictive of the future. A lot of times it is, except for the times it isn't, and the times it isn't tend to fall into the fat tail that spells disaster for your trades. All that said, I think it's fine to use IVP and IVR to screen for trading opportunities. It's not a guarantee of profit in any way, but the IV of stock XYZ that has an IVP above 60% is a lot more likely to decline than an IVP below 40%. You're playing the odds and using historical IV to gamble on reversion to the mean.

optionsHODL

I am surprised by how little comments there are for this post. It really is fantastic. Something else to consider that you didn't mention is that keeping BP Usage lower during a low VIX environment. I know VIX isn't always correlated with GLD, but during times of market stress/panic it becomes more correlated. So if we are VIX gating our BP, then this trade makes a ton of sense. We spend more time selling ATM puts with a longer DTE, and then if assigned use the shorter DTE to wheel them off ATM. Trying to keep the majority of our time in the contract on the put side. If VIX elevates due to market stress GLD prices usually increase and we can exit the position and move into higher IVR assets or just farm the rise rolling the puts down(up in price) as GLD increases.

PapaCharlie9

I'm confused about what you are trying to do. Low IVR conventionally is considered to be **good** for buyers, since it's saying that current IV is low in the range of IV for the trailing year, and since IV is mean reverting, the expectation is that it will rise, which is good for buyers. Since tastytrade usually promotes *credit* strategies, which means sellers, not buyers, you may be misapplying a "Tastytrade" recommendation intended for sellers to a BTO you want to do? You did say "recommendation of **buying** 1/2 the width...", so I assume you are talking about a BTO trade?

whoispankaj80

let’s first fix that stupid IVR machines in customer care. that hasn’t happened in ages

matlockm

I wanted to sell credit spreads but all the major liquid tickers have low <30% IVR. Based on the IVR and Tastytrade's recommendation of buying 1/2 width of the strikes turns into too much of a risk for me at \~50% POP. Based on this I'd rather wait till I can sell to open so that I can trade 1/3 width of the strikes to increase my POP to around 70%. Is my reasoning logical here to sit out the market until things become more high premium options trades?

royofhollywood

IVR matters too. When IVR is high, you may be able to get enough premium selling a 16 delta call, but if Vol is low, I look at 16 deltas and if I am getting like $20 for the call, why bother? I usually do a wheel on my margins. So if I have 500 shares, i will sell one 25 or 30 delta call and if gets called away, I then sell a Put at that price, which will be like 40 delta and if i dont get put the stock, Ill roll up and keep that put at 40 delta collecting premium until I get put the stock.

TradeVue

Yeah so I just keep a watchlist of liquid underlyings with tight bid/ask and plenty of options volume. From there to start, I’m mainly looking at IV rank. If IVR is high, that’s when I lean into iron condors since I can collect more premium and still set my strikes wide. I’ll usually go around 45 days out, set my short strikes just outside the expected move, and make sure I’m collecting a credit that’s at least one-third the width of the wings. That gives me good risk/reward and room to manage if the trade moves against me I don’t hold them to expiration unless I have to. Too much gamma risk close to expiry, and I’d rather free up buying power and cycle into a new setup. The goal’s really just stacking high-probability trades over and over staying mechanical. Also a big fan of taking profits early a lot timesaround 50%. Like I’ve said trade small, trade often, and locking in wins when they come, taking profits early helps overall probability of staying profitable over time because it you have less exposure to random moves late in the cycle and allows you to keep deploying capital.

TradeVue

This is a great visual, and it nails the core trade off in options, win rate vs risk/reward. most new traders don’t realize is you can’t have it all, you either win small often (like with short puts or iron condors), or you try and go big with stuff like long calls and debit spreads that win less often but pay big. That upper right quadrant, high win rate lower reward, is where most probability based traders live. Selling premium like far OTM condors or cash secured puts works because it lets you trade small, trade often, and let the law of large numbers do the work over time. TS style. keep the probability edge and let time do its thing. Not sexy, but effective. Bottom left unfortunately is where everyone seems to start in a lot of people never get past it, since the disadvantages of buying catches up to them, and they may not know another way. knowing what type of pain you can tolerate is important. Find a strategy that’s high probability use POP and P50, IVR etc. learn how to have time decay and IV crush on your side. Be the casino not the player

Psycha_Naut

This is a great visual, and it nails the core trade off in options, win rate vs risk/reward. most new traders don’t realize is you can’t have it all, you either win small often (like with short puts or iron condors), or you try and go big with stuff like long calls and debit spreads that win less often but pay big. That upper right quadrant, high win rate lower reward, is where most probability based traders live. Selling premium like far OTM condors or cash secured puts works because it lets you trade small, trade often, and let the law of large numbers do the work over time. TS style. keep the probability edge and let time do its thing. Not sexy, but effective. Bottom left unfortunately is where everyone seems to start in a lot of people never get past it, since the disadvantages of buying catches up to them, and they may not know another way. knowing what type of pain you can tolerate is important. Find a strategy that’s high probability use POP and P50, IVR etc. learn how to have time decay and IV crush on your side. Be the casino not the player

notquitenuts

I’ve traded a ton of diagonals and calendars and got into them because on paper it looks so good. The reality is that it’s way harder than it looks to make any money. While it may seem that your just banking theta, imho Vega and gamma really are the heavy hitters in these trades. I only trade them now as a vol play where I am expecting a reversion to the norm for vol. I use IVR on tasty for this. I just put on a diagonal in BA the other day. IVR was down to 6 so I sold the jun 215 and bought the July 210 expecting the IVR to creep back up to at least 20 or so in the coming weeks. These are very slow moving trades

OptionsJive

A stock can stay undervalued longer than you think. I'd choose put ratio spreads to capitalize on Google's high IVR.

microfutures

Start out with the how to trade options tutorial first and then search for other youtube videos on things clarifying specific topics where the big video tutorial couldn't explain it. Like, InTheMoney's tutorial. Great guide, but there are some things I couldn't follow along with so I had to look for other videos explaining certain things like implied volatility and the greeks. Tastylive has great video tutorials as well, but your post says you want to learn as a buyer and not as an options writer or have a strategy with multiple legs so I won't further into it as tasty's mechanisms are mostly writing options. I'm mostly a writer for options contracts, but I do get in some directional plays. 1.Research? I look at the IVR (compares the implied volatility over the past year to the current IV) and look for stocks with a low IV (not above 30, but somewhere between 10-25. Why? Options prices are low. This also opens up the opportunity that if the IV goes up, while I have the contract, the value of my contract can go up as well. Next I look for stocks with decent volume and tight spreads. Why? It's hard to get in the trade, but can be VERY hard to get out. Also susceptible to wild swings in the PNL. I can be up 20% on the stock, but then I can be down 40% the next minute. I've had it happen where I was up 60% on the trade, I want to close the call open, but I don't the the fill because of the spread being so wide and have to wait for a willing buyer to buy this contract from me(if ever). 2. Why a call or put? You need a bias, or reasons, as to why you think the price is going to go up or down. Look at a chart and take a guess as to what direction price will go before the contract expires. If the price is trending down, expect puts to cost more and calls to be cheaper. Is price trending down and you think that bottom is in? Calls are cheap. 3. Choosing strike price? Depends on risk tolerance and if I want to be in the money, at the money, or out the money. If I buy in the money contracts, it's much easier to breakeven on the trade than it is to buy out of the money contracts. Although, they cost more and there's the risk of the price going down where I lose the intrinsic value from the contract. 4. Expiration? I'll buy contracts that are 60 days out. Theta decay is the silent killer for option buyers. Around the 30 day mark is when theta decay starts to kick in. However, this is where paying attention to the greeks is really important, especially for delta and theta.

bostrovsky

400 strike SPY PUTS in Jun 2026 cost about $6.06 right now and 450 strike are $9.83. IVR is back down around 22. Who's jumping in?

forumofsheep

You start by SELLING options (preferably when a stock has a high IVR, because IV is mean reverting) if you ever want to have a chance in the derivatives market. This forces you to learn how they work. And for god sake, if you are to regarded for that and want to gamble on lottery tickets, start with itm high delta leaps on decent stocks while they are on the lower end of their range / bollinger band while IV is down. The rest is gambling and you have 0 edge, because statistically its already priced in into the premium you pay. There is a reason big boys and funds mainly trade delta neutral by selling both sides and hedge with futures or stock accordingly and only if they need to.

nivek_123k

BA went from 135 to 205 in the span of just a few weeks... and their financials are terrible. it's not making sense to me to see such a panic rise in a poorly run firm. I have a position that is now net short. The IVR is in the toilet, and If it get's any kind of pull back to 190 or so, I am going to take my capital and RUN.

No-Woodpecker7462

Thinking about that time I bought a bunch of IVR when I was 18, still hold it just so I can look at the -80% and shake my head in shame

microfutures

Another thing with illiquid products having those high spreads is that if you want to get out of the spread, for a profit or to cut losses, it's commonly difficult as both legs of the trade have to fill to be executed. I experience this when I sell spreads on high IVR stocks with wide spreads.

microfutures

IVR is pretty high, which is good as a seller. The spreads between the big and ask is high so during the lifecycle of the trade don't be surprised to see some wild swings in PNL (like up 30%, down 40% the next hour, back and forth).

TheInkDon1

The first commenter said to use a scanner. I think he probably meant something like Barchart. If you haven't been there yet, there's a WEALTH of information and customizable screeners for stocks, ETFs, and options. From the home page, upper left, choose Stocks, then halfway down the first column of the dropdown, Stock Screener. Here you may actually find a canned screener for IVR in the "Load a Screener" dropdown. Or in the Add a Filter row, type in "volatility." Toward the bottom are several different timespans of IVR. Click one, then hit Add beside the row. It moves down below. Then in the dropdown choose "Greater Than," "Less Than," or "Between," then put in the numbers you want. You could click See Results, but you'll probably get way more results than you want, and on tickers you wouldn't want to trade. So go back to Add a Filter and add Price parameters, or Volume, P/E, pretty much whatever you can think of. Like I said, Barchart has a TON of functionality. Happy hunting!

Baraxton

Use a scanner and scan for 52wk IVR or IVP.

TheRootOfMostEvil

I went heavy on dividend stocks during the dip. Any reason I shouldn’t be holding RWT and IVR?

forumofsheep

Be careful. it easily could just open red, just to recover and end flat or slightly green. Best bet is to play certain ranges via short option strategies, volatility is still high, most stocks have an insane IVR. I will sell more SPX / RUT / NDX strangles and credit spreads.

33dojo33

IVR’s largely high in large cap equities. I’m not sure why buying is the best play now. Any insight you can share?

33dojo33

IV is high = options are expensive. Sell premium now, don’t buy it. Wait for IVR to fall below 50 and then think about buying. This trade could work but volatility is working against you. Not for you.

I_know_nothing_42

for comparisons, you have risk 0 rate t-bills for timeframe. Then go to market risk rate SPY for the time frame your selling. Then the individual underlying your selling. You should be doing a self scoring on the risk you think your taking on. Am I getting the reward for the risk. Items for your self scoring: Liquidity, bid/ask spread, how close to midpoint does it fill, volume, market cap, short interest, IV, IVR, earnings. Then compare risk vs expected ROC based in initial capital vs t-bill, SPY. For return calculation it depends upon what you can do in your account. CSP then it's the strike price of the put times 100. Reg-T margin you have the initial capital requirements, this will change as the price of the underlying changes. I mark daily. high water mark of Cap required will be used for my ROC. Portfolio Margin, same thing as reg-T just almost always lower than req-T requirements, still use the high water mark.

One_Conversation8458

I am also new, I still don’t understand how to calculate the PNL on Option Shorts (CSP or CCs)., That said, IVR is usually TastyTrade metric, ie on their platform is what I see and no where else.

sonofalando

The Xfinity IVR is embedded in my nightmares 

ghlc_

I think its best to alocate your capital to the next best trade you find instead of rolling. And I do something like martingale when I use more BPR when SPY IVR is high, so its not like a huge martingale like rolling forever.

ghlc_

No, I meant to say ITM long call or put. If you think about it, an itm call can hedge your short put to some level and hedge a lot better your short call. Give it a try. It kinda have some ditectional exposure, but not that much. I like using long itm leaps puts when IVR is low and market is on your highs

One_Conversation8458

What platform do you use to see the IVR?

ghlc_

IVR and IV percentile. You can analyse VIX too. But in order to buy a longer date DITM call, try to see wich delta gives you near zero extrinsic value. I like to think that the extrinsic is my cost of levereging, the cash I didnt use if I bought the underlying directly will get me more money than this cost? Or if a crash happens and make my call otm, I would be better having this call + cash or the underlying?

RedditAddict6942O

Yeah I agree with you that AI is a hugely useful technology. It's just hard to see who is gonna benefit. Ironically, I could see some of the biggest benefits being in fast food and call centers.  LLMs are descended from translation models. And that's still what they're best at. Translating speech to an order, or to some actions in an IVR phone tree that used to be "press 1 for whatever" into "yo can you tell me my checking account balance" will be the first and most promising use cases.  It might also be a boon for data translation. Take this excel spreadsheet and give me JSON. Or startups that auto translate your business website to users language and stuff.

Sufficient_Panda_205

Thank you! Summary for future readers: 1. If the trade is a loser, at 21DTE look to roll for a credit. If you can’t roll for a credit, wait it out and go within 21DTE to allow the trade PL to flatten out against the strikes. 2. If the trade is a little winner/little loser, look at IVR Rank.. if the rank is high, it’s worth rolling as IV is mean reverting and eventually u will get to keep 50% of premium once IV mean reverts (down). If IV rank is low, close out the trade and look for something else with higher IV rank They don’t go into any specifics relating to BE or breaching of strikes.. just that the PL at 21DTE is a loser or winner..

Krammsy

Try this "training wheels" exercise, buy a put option with a Delta below 0.5, make sure it's IVR is 10% or less (implied volatility rank), then match it's Delta with 10% more in shares. From there you either buy or sell shares according to the value of the option. Within a few weeks, you should be able to scalp a little money off the trading, but more importantly you become acclimated to the way options work by carefully following what the option does and observing Delta and implied volatility in real time. This is an actual strategy, called gamma scalping, it will only makes small amounts of money in most cases, so it's most effective for large traders, but it's a useful way to learn how options price action works without losing your shirt.

Riptide34

This is just part of trading. You cannot reliably pick the bottom (or top). No one knows what a stock or the market will do. Expect every trade to go against you and have a plan for what to do. You say you sold puts last week. I wouldn't necessarily call that a "bad" or reckless decision. I sold premium last week as well given the pop in IV and IVR. Everyone who was short premium/volatility took some pain today. Now, if you took positions too big for your account or risk tolerance, then that would be a reckless move. Times like this (volatility expansion) is why you don't over-leverage when selling premium. Especially if you're new, you have to start small. I think more volatility is likely. Do you have a plan for what you're going to do if your puts go ITM/ATM?

OptionRecom

You’re on the right track. If you’re only getting one trade per week, your criteria might be a bit too tight. Maybe tweak IVR or delta slightly to see if that opens things up without messing with your edge. Markets change, so some weeks will be slow no matter what. Just keep refining and tracking—by 2026, you’ll be dialed in.

Middle-Money5705

Okay yea I was talking about single name stocks, I was wondering which IVR is too high so I can try to avoid those extreme outliers. Thanks

AlphaGiveth

way too low IMO. its hard because you can go through periods where things are very calm , and all of a sudden a 100 IVR is like a small spike in vol. Basically.. you know it when you see it. Covid. Vix above 40. Things like that. If you wanted to have a filter for single name stocks, i'd say 95 ivr

Middle-Money5705

Got it, thanks, so what would be a good general rule of thumb as a cut off point? Avoid selling anything above 75 IVR? Or how high is too high?

Krammsy

IV rank, "IVR" will tell you how high current implied volatility is versus the last year, if your broker it doesn't provide the info you can look on optionstats.io, also marketchameleon.com will display a chart of the entire year's IV vs where you stand now.

Responsible-Cookie98

I thought IVR/Percentile put IV into context?

nietzy

Yep same here. Long delta, diverse underlying, and always on IVR>30, but mostly IVR>60 with ROC of >20% at time of trade. I also have PM, so yes as the account has grown, it has become easier. But still gotta stay small.

VegaStoleYourTendies

A couple notes: On the 'law of large numbers', this actually makes sense. For instance, even if you have 80% probability on a trade, 20% of the time you lose everything. If you spread that out over 5 trades, it's less than 1%. As you increase the number of trades, the true win rate starts to converge around the probability of profit. No gamblers fallacy here or anything, just simple mathematics. So trade small trade often is effective for options trading And on the volatility thing- volatility is mean reverting. Tasty philosophy doesn't just say to sell when IV is high, it says to sell when IV is *relatively* high (aka, when IVR is high). This makes sense, and is certainly much preferable to selling when volatility is relatively low Obviously there is way more to the world of options trading than tasty trades philosophy, and I don't think anyone should only follow that religiously. But I think that's true for any 'trading system' you can find online. And out of all of the 'systems' that I have seen online, tastys is definitely the best

Krammsy

When they focus on basic strategies and IVR I think it's worth listening to, I keep them on morning's while I trade mainly because, let's face it, Tom, Vonetta and Batt are pretty funny. The more complex statistical research they do, I listen to, but only so I can glean something for my own trading, not as a guideline on how to trade. A lot of that research I think is overkill, some is just common sense or comes instinctively with experience.

QuantumHQ

ARKK, ARKG and IVR, all speculative investments made in 2021. Sometimes that is how you learn.

MaxCapacity

I agree with IVP being superior.  IVR was terribly compressed following the March 2020 bear market.  There's still some noise in IVP if volatility stays elevated for a long time, but it washes out quicker than IVR.

Plantastic24

Is TOS mobile app also showing IVP as IVR ? What abut HV ?

notquitenuts

No worries, I am not looking for 0 delta, although that would be nice! When it starts getting to 20-25 delta either way I start looking at my options and pricing things out. You have to take that with a grain of salt as well based on the underlying, ie I have strangles in avgo and gld and they are night and day. Avgo is all over the place and gld is very slow and steady. 20 deltas in these isn’t the same. As to whether or not to roll or close that’s based on my risk tolerance and what I “think” will happen. Some stocks I am just always wrong in and I’ll just close them out take the loss and find something I am better at. IVR is also a big factor, if the it’s really high and there are no earnings coming up I am more apt to see if it will mean revert. If IVR is low and I’m losing $ I am most likely out

eabdelrahman89

Are you actively managing your trade to neutralize delta ? And what makes roll or close ? Based on IVR ?

consciouscreentime

Yeah, IVP is definitely the way to go. IVR gets wonky after big price swings. For shorter-term IVR and IVP calculations, thinkscript is your friend. Also, ToS mislabels IVR as IVP, which is kinda funny. Good luck out there.

International_Mud741

Still holding IVR?

notquitenuts

52 week avg and IVR are my first goto's

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New dashboard powered by Viva Insights that provides access to Copilot for Sales usage data. - Actionable message banners in Outlook emails suggest follow-up actions. - Email summary enhancements for post-meeting follow-ups. ### **Microsoft Power Platform** - Copilot agents can be extended with specialized agents and knowledge sources. - Generative AI can be added to IVR systems. - Copilot can help develop data models from natural language input. - Picture-in-picture is available for Power Automate desktop flows. - Automation center provides a central hub for monitoring automation processes. - Copilot hub in Power Platform Admin Center helps admins manage agents. - Security hub protects data with compliance, data protection, identity, threat protection, and security posture management. ### **Azure** - Azure Mv3 High Memory and Very High Memory virtual machines are now generally available for demanding SAP workloads. - Azure VMware Solution is approved for use within the DoD SRG Impact Level 4. - Azure IoT Operations runs in an on-premises Arc-enabled Kubernetes cluster. - Azure H200 Virtual Machine leverages the NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPU. - Azure Cosmos DB integrates with LangChain.js. - DiskANN in Azure Cosmos DB is a powerful algorithm for vector search. - Healthcare data solutions in Microsoft Fabric help transform healthcare data. - Fabric Real-Time Intelligence delivers instant insights and analytics. - API for GraphQL in Microsoft Fabric allows quick querying of multiple data sources. - Azure Private Link is available for Databricks serverless and Mosaic AI Model. - .NET 9 enhancements are available for Azure PaaS. - Azure AI Foundry portal has a management center for administration of hubs, projects, and resources. - Phi-4 is a small language model competing with GPT-4o mini. - Azure Essentials is available for reliability, security, and performance. ### **Microsoft Edge** - Copilot Vision is in preview and can see and read the page the user is on to help solve problems. - Microsoft Edge for Business supports data loss prevention controls. ### **Microsoft Advertising Platform** - Ads are now triggered considering the whole conversation within a single session. - Copilot in the Advertising Platform includes Diagnostics and Performance Snapshot. - Video ads have new performance features. ### **Other Notable Points** - Microsoft's AI business has reached a $13 billion annual revenue run rate. - Microsoft Cloud revenue was $40.9 billion, up 21% year-over-year. - Microsoft returned $9.7 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. ### **Financial Summary** | Category | FY25 Q2 | Growth | |------------------------------|---------|---------| | Revenue | $69.6B | 12% | | Operating Income | $31.7B | 17% | | Net Income | $24.1B | 10% | | Diluted Earnings per Share | $3.23 | 10% | ### **Segment Revenue** | Segment | FY25 Q2 Revenue | |--------------------------------------|------------------| | Productivity and Business Processes | $29.4B | | Intelligent Cloud | $25.5B | | More Personal Computing | $14.7B | ### **Key Financials** - **Revenue:** **$69.6 billion** (**+12%**) - **Operating Income:** **$31.7 billion** (**+17%**) - **Net Income:** **$24.1 billion** (**+10%**) - **Earnings Per Share:** **$3.23** (**+10%**) ### **Key Segment Performance** | **Segment** | **Revenue (Billions)** | **Growth** | **Key Drivers** | |----------------------------------|----------------------|------------|----------------| | **Productivity & Business** | $29.4 | **+14%** | **Microsoft 365 Commercial**, **Dynamics 365** cloud services, and **LinkedIn** | | **Intelligent Cloud** | $25.5 | **+19%** | **Azure** and cloud services, driven heavily by **AI** | | **More Personal Computing** | $14.7 | **0%** | **Windows OEM** and **Search & News Advertising** growth offsetting a decline in **Gaming** | ### **Highlights** - **Microsoft Cloud:** Revenue hit **$40.9 billion**, up **21% YoY** - **AI is a major growth driver:** Microsoft's AI business now has an annual revenue run rate of **$13 billion**, up **175% YoY** - **Azure’s AI Impact:** AI services contributed **13 percentage points** to Azure's **31% growth**, marking **157% growth** in AI-related revenue - **Shareholder Returns:** Microsoft returned **$9.7 billion** to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases ### **Financial Metrics** - **Gross Margin:** Increased **13%**, but **Microsoft Cloud's gross margin percentage** dipped to **70%** due to scaling AI infrastructure - **Operating Expenses:** Increased **5% YoY**, primarily due to **cloud engineering investments** ### **Important Notes** - **Segment Reorganization:** Microsoft has **restructured** its reporting segments, with prior period information adjusted to match the new structure - **Currency Adjustments:** Growth remained consistent when adjusted for **foreign exchange fluctuations**

sharpetwo

You just do LN(VVIX/VIX) this should do the trick. But comparing their IVR is pointless. It is really the ratio between the two that matters.

quod-inquisitio

where/how do you get your info/ratios on the price levels of SPX vs VIX options? differenr IVR ranks? did dispersion trading for a while with selling mag7 vol and buying SPX vol and the other way around depending on the situation but never felt really confident since i had not enough data, now i only stick to SPX/SPY

Options_Trader_1964

My trigger is simply high IV and high liquidity. All the underlyings I follow are highly liquid so the trigger to trade is high IV if I want to add positions to my portfolio based on portfolio delta and theta. On any given day I'll have 10 to 20 positions on. Nothing big but I'm retired and just supplementing my income and having fun with a hobby. As I said, I like IVR over 50, but that's not always a practical level as it can hurt diversification, so I eill go as low as 30 on a top blue chip underlying. So xyz is highly liquid in both stock and option markets, and the IVR is 56. My portfolio is low on theta so I want to add to it....a trade is triggered. Now I decide on strategy and strikes. Short put or short strangle. The more level the 50ma with RSI neither above 70 or below 30, the more likely to sell a strangle outside of expected move and Donchian Channels, usually around 16 to 20 delta. The greater the upward trend of the 50 ma, the greater likelihood that I'll just sell puts as long as,RSI isn't above 70. My strike is based on expected move, but also the lower channel, if price is in an uptrend and moving upward and away from the lower channel, I'm might sell a muck higher delta...a 30 or even at the money on stocks I would like to own at that price. If price is in the middle of the channel I'll be around 16 to 20. If price is at the upper channel I might end up around 10 delta. It's subjective based on experience and directional assumptions. Once I set up the trade I'll check the POP and P50 on tasty platform. I like to stay 70 to 90% on both.

Shigelerdud

Hi all, just thought I would share. I just ran the numbers of the total premiums and dividends I made in TLT trade in 2024. It made 13% return on an assumed 9k capital on 100 shares. 30% ROI on margin impact. I mainly did CSP and keep rolling it down. I let myself get assigned when I believe that it is oversold, and then sell a covered call very close to strike to get called away. Basically wheel strategy with directional bias. I was also very mindful of the IVR before I sold a put. Squeezing the vega out of it while constantly making theta daily. Cheers to safe trades and making money \- Compounding Loonies

_letter_carrier_

When I open a long straddle, I open in a low IV environment so that there is limited exposure to an IV drop/crush. If IVR is moderate or highish I won't go long and may sell instead. IVR < 10 bakes cake. I also open with a long DTE so that there is limited exposure to theta decay.

consciouscreentime

TQQQ and other leveraged ETFs decay over time, making them unsuitable for wheeling. High IV Rank *is* important. Look at non-leveraged ETFs with high IVR like XBI (Biotech), IWM (Russell 2000), or KWEB (China Internet). [Tastytrade](https://tastytrade.com/) has good resources on wheeling mechanics. [Option Alpha](https://www.optionalpha.com/) also has some solid educational content.

ZjY5MjFk

> Hi, I have had a bit of success with options the last couple months and targeting some stocks for some long term puts (SOUN, BBAI, IONQ, RKLB, MSTR, PLTR). The only reason I am hesitating is that the IV is very high. It's 100%+ on all of these and am wondering how that would affect my options if the price does tank. I've heard I can still lose money on a high IV stock even if it moves my way. Can someone please explain how this works? First a lot of these are meme stocks, so it's normal to have high IV. But you are right, you don't want to buy when inflated more than normal. What you want to look at is metrics like IVR and IVP (google these). It'll tell you what current IV is compared to historical metrics. Secondly, if you are long vol (buying options) then you want IV to increase on your position. If you are short vol (selling options) you want IV to decrease on your position. So think of IV as price. If you buy IV, you want to buy low and sell high. If you sell IV, you want to sell it high and buy back lower. In single option positions, delta is generally the biggest factor, but IV is a second factor and you are right. Sometimes IV can over take delta in extremes. This is why some people buy options before earnings and stock price goes in direction they think, but they still lose money (because IV is crushed.. That is, they bought IV high and now it drop, which crushed price of options position)

ZjY5MjFk

Most brokers also show IVR and IVP, those are good ball park metrics

nonner101

Opened my first diagonal call spread today (PMCC) on ASTS, 12.5 strike long call 1/16/26 and 30 strike short call 1/17/25. Potential catalyst tomorrow to help me on the delta side and the inauguration could help me on the vega side, IVR is pretty low right now

flynrider58

Add an IVR trigger (e.g. sell only when IV Rank is above 40). Then what happens?

seattlepianoman

How much does iv typically drop after earnings and rise before earnings? I can pull up a chart for IVR in tasty trade which is similar and would show the change theough earnings. I dont think it’s quite the same though as IV.

Smooth-Case3095

Related yes. IVR looks at the current IV relative to historical vols, usually using a year of data. So this tells you that vols are higher than usual or lower than usual etc. Whereas IV30 is just a snapshot of IV right now. There may not be an expiry in exactly 30 days but you can interpolate between expiries to infer it. Take a look at "volatiliry term structures" if that doesn't make sense. So I'd say if IVR is high then IV30 is probably high as well, if IVR is low then IV30 is probably low. But there's some messiness here due to the differing time to expiries.

Smooth-Case3095

What you're looking for is called "implied vol rank" (IVR) or "implied vol percentile" (IVP) and most brokerage guis include it. Just be aware that a broker is not going to clean for events, so it will break down close to earnings.

Foewillis

IVR

IRON_CONDOR_Praguer

hey thanks for replying. So my current setup is having a very simple screener in IB that filters parameters like IV, earnings date, random events appearing and date, IVR, IVP and HV. I do the earnings play by trading wide short strangles and short puts in those companies i dont mind owning even though we are in bull territory. Iron condors when I want to limit risk. That is in equities. I would like to extend this stuff not only for earnings plays but also for the weekly/monthly options play to use time decay, which is where the use of a bot to highlight optimal credit spreads and puts/calls is really handy. Ideally this "bot" would have to track overbought and oversold areas to base my selling on some "rational" although TA is....yeah....not really accurate, is it? In indices i mostly trade the SPX and NDX 0dte with credit spreads obviously, but thats a totally different animal. Dont think coding is the easy part but thats probably how i see it now as I dont really know from where to start from. Congrats on those python analytics, I have heaps to learn.

jester88888

I was going to say the same about the relatively long expiry date - the effect of earnings in 5 days on IV / IVR on those longer contracts is going to be pretty limited.

jester88888

I hope I have understood your question correctly: Scenario 1 - I would say it depends on the Implied Vol Rank (IVR). You do not mention what your view is beyond the 3 month expiry, so I will keep my suggestions to that expiry. If IVR is low then I'd suggest rolling from the 230 strike to the 250 strike based on your view. If IVR is high then my suggestion would to sell the 250 call against your existing long 200 call, setting up a long call spread. In addition if you have the conviction, you could take profit on your long call at high IV. Scenario 2: Again depends on the IVR. If low then my suggestion is to roll up the strike price to an OTM call. If IVR is high then roll the call up and sell some puts to take some premium in to compensate for the high IVR.

dazoppity

The point is not to influence the value of the contract, it’s to assess whether the option trade has positive expected value. Retail traders will decide to enter trades with an expectation to make money if enough of the trading decisions end up correct. Like deciding to trade earnings or trade only on high IVR environments - these are supposed to capture distortions in the priced probabilities of options/spreads caused by irrational markets. If the markets were always right, there would be no edge in trading under high IVR or doing earnings trades as a strategy

DSCN__034

The thesis is that IVR overstates the realized volatility. This becomes especially pronounced when IVR is high due to sentiment, and it will revert to the mean. Someone made $$ selling you those calls.

forumofsheep

You are such a bozo for buying the weekly for next friday. While TSLA has one of its highest IVR atm. Could have been leaps or at least dated after the election in hopes of a Trump win. But instead you buy literally the week were a slight correction would make the most sense. And you are toast if TSLA isn’t over 270 by friday.

forumofsheep

Bozo doesn’t even know how to sell the lottery tickets. If you have PM and are TRULY able to calculate the risk/cvar, trade high IVR underlyings, you hedge and keep you BPR in check, short option strategies on a low/non correlated portfolio are anything but gambling. Just because you are stuck on level 1 knowledge in a level 10 world, doesn’t mean everybody has to be this incompetent!

MtTime420

I stumbled into $GEVO a few weeks ago - that was fun! GRI, $ELTP did well. $ELAB, $UAVS, $CETX sucked. Waiting: $ELAB, $BMR, $SRFM, $HOVR, $IVR

bak2skewl

i made a bunch of money on tISI And then transferred it over to IVR to score some divies. also shorts on SAVA i just dont get how that scam continues.

TraderDan1

So my #1 rule, the PRIMARY thing to learn out of the gate when I mentor people is that for the wheel, ONLY use stocks that contain the attributes of ones that you would be happy to put into your portfolio for 3-5 years. Period. High quality stocks (or funds).You MUST be willing to hang onto these if it came to that. Remember you will always be getting premium by selling calls, also you earned premium selling the PUTs. Use that to offset your cost basis on the price of the stock and you'll realize that a stock would have to move pretty significantly against you over time, but nonetheless, we are wheeling instruments that are HIGH quality that have the propensity to grow over time. If you use DJT or GME or other meme stocks, forget it, you've missed the point. The other thing to consider is to NEVER YOLO everything on one stock, even if it is a high quality stock. In the case of the OP who was asking about $66k, I would recommend dividing that up into 3-5 different stocks (yes it will affect the price of the stock you have available to buy) but it diversifies your risk of holding. My personal statistics show that I only end up holding a stock in 1 out of 13 trades, but I've never been "stuck" bagholding. I calculate my cost basis from the PUT premium, and subsequent CALL premium and set my covered calls about 10%-20% higher than my cost basis. I never end up bagholding because over the course of the short-to-medium term (3-6 months) the price naturally swings to touch it, or my cost basis has become so low that I can sell for a small profit to free up the capital, but bagholding is not a common occurrence. In fact it's rare,I mean really rare. Additionally I'm always screening candidates that are in an upward trend to begin with which mitigates the risk of being assigned from the start. I'm always more interested in collecting premium than being assigned. I avoid wheeling stocks during an earnings announcement. I wheel stocks with a DTE 3-45 days. Also, in my spreadsheet that I use for evaluating and balancing my portfolio, I have built a correlation coefficient matrix which tells me how diverse my wheel stocks are in terms of their relationship with each other. For example, I do not want to wheel on F, GM, or Toyota because their correlation is too tightly tied together. I plug in the data for each stock in my portflio and future wheel candidates and average their correlation coefficient... the optimal goal is a score of 0.3-0.5 (positive). This tells me that none of these are closely related and therefore half my portfolio will not swing together in the event of news or natural vibrations. For wheeling I don't look at delta, although many people do. I have a spreadsheet that tells me ROR for the money invested, how far is the strike below the last traded price, IVR and a few other things. For strangles I look at delta, but not with my wheel stocks. My spreadsheet tells me basically "XYZ has the best ROR for a strike price that is at LEAST 10-15% below the trading price, plus other metrics (I can post a screen shot). I always limit each trade to be no more than 5% of my portfolio size. I am consistently involved in 10-20 trades each month. If bagholding were to happen, I factor in all of the premium I've been getting from this stock and others and the WORST case scenario is that I break even. There is no "blowing up" an account as someone else implied. That just doesn't happen IF done right. I'm happy to dive deeper into the metrics I use to scan the market for my stocks (and funds) but there is no magic secret sauce in them. Also, many people once they learn how I do things, develop their own little nuances that suit their trading style which is great. The basics of wheeling stocks for solid, long term growth and income work, they have always worked and it's a proven system IF you know how to do it right and have a plan. I've said it before, Buffett does it, large funds do it and tons of large companies do it with their cash on hand so there is no debate about its efficacy. But the people who do it know what the hell they are doing. People that naysay it here simply do not understand it like they do, like I do. And I'll add, that for the past 10 years I've grown my account while working a full time job. The beauty of it is that you don't have to be plastered in front of your screen all day like a crazed day trader. You can do it while working. Granted I work in surgery and I work 3-4 days a week, but it wouldn't matter. I can still do it working 5 days a week.

JackfruitCrazy51

You've experienced too many guided IVR's. A lot of IVRs have switched to an open midweek where it just asks you "What would you like?". You wouldn't believe how many people call to hear their balance, even though there is an app.

JackfruitCrazy51

That won't work in the future. Right now, the companies realize that their IVR's are not good enough, so they allow you to skip out. In the future, you'll play along or get hung up on. In the future, the phone system will be smarter than any agent you talk to.

jaltagracia

Thanks for confirming. My theory was around some IV expansion event. Playing around with the IV slider in the calculator increased the height of the profit area. Is there a way to see IVR trend to estimate if it’s expected to increase or decrease in the future?

C0MMANDO

sold slightly ITM covered calls on some high IVR/IV holdings. I'm ready for a crash monday

Oblivious-Speculator

IVR 

hgreenblatt

Sell the books for whatever you can get and turn on Tastylive. It is all about IV, IVR, and probability and knowing that you know nothing about where the market is going.

PapaCharlie9

If you're lucky, your broker calculates an average for you and includes it as an optional quote that you may have to opt-in to see. These may be labeled IVR (IV Rank) or IVP (IV Percentile). Both are based on 52-week trailing averages.

tdronen

If you are happy with it, don't change a thing. The most important measure is win percentage and yours sounds great. From 50K ft, it looks like 90+ win% on 350k BP with no margin generating 1%. With 350k, You qualify for portfolio margin at (6.7 to 1) unless you are trading in a retirement account I don't recall if you said that or not. Using margin, and/or optimizing Greeks, focusing on higher volatility 40+ IV or 50+ IVR products, $1 min premium can be backtested to show performance can be tweaked to make 2% per month. I would be happy to share free backtest tool. Just PM me.

spicermatthews

I think in general I was just looking to start a conversation. Not totally thinking looking for inside traders or anything. More just signs something is about to move. I have an algo that looks at put / call ratios, volume, and IVR at the end of everyday. Then place orders at the open based on that.

IV_Smasher

There are a limited number of market phenomena that allow a trader to find edge while trading options, variance premium/risk premium (for sellers high IV) is one of them. If you sell expensive options based on a high IV Rank or Percentile, then by buying the long leg of your spread you are overpaying for that option and neutralizing your edge. I sell strangles outside of the expected move on quality stocks and etfs with high IVR. Then as the trade progresses I roll the untested side toward price the movement, sometimes reaching a straddle. When this occurs I buy back the straddle and resell a centered strangle outside the expected move.

TanukiTrade

I'm not calculating 16 delta skew. There is 3 different things: - pricing skew: the pricing difference between the call and put prices at same (binary expected move) distance for the giving expiration. - delta 16 curves(blue): this is just simply the curves of the exact interpolated delta 16 OTM - delta skew twist: when the delta 16 exceed both binary and standard expected move distances. This is not normal, this is only when the option chain is very skewed in one direction. The most significant thing is the pricing skew. You can use to choose the right option strategy. If the calls are overpriced you will not buying calls for example. If there is huge put skew but technically the trend is turning into bullish - you can choose credit put ratio of credit put ratio. If the IVR is very low and IVX also low and there is call skew, you can choose calendar or diagonal where the next expiry table suggest Ivx skew. But these are just examples. There are many. I'm planning to write a full cheat sheet in October about these market situations.

TanukiTrade

Murrey Math lines are based on the principles observed by William Gann, renowned for his market symmetry forecasts. Gann's techniques, such as Gann Angles, have been adapted by Murrey to make them more accessible to ordinary investors. According to Murrey, markets often correct at specific price levels, and breakouts or returns to these levels can signal good entry points for trades. **At TanukiTrade, we enhance these price levels based on our experience**, ensuring a clear display. We acknowledge that while MurreyMath lines aren't infallible predictions, they are useful for identifying likely price movements over a given period (e.g., one month) if the market trend aligns. **Our opinion: MurreyMath lines are not crystal balls (like no other tool). They should be used to identify that if we are trading in the right direction, the price is likely to reach the next unit step within a unit time (e.g. monthly expiration).** **One unit step** is the distance between Murrey Math lines, such as between the 0/8 and 1/8 lines. This interval helps identify different quadrants and is crucial for recognizing support and resistance levels. Some option traders use Murrey Math lines to gauge the movement speed of an instrument over a unit time. A quadrant encompasses 4 unit steps. **Key levels, according to TanukiTrade, include:** [**https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fOqWHDq8.png**](https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fOqWHDq8.png) \~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~\~ PS: you can check the full documentation of option overlay here: [https://www.tradingview.com/script/aJMucU2d-Options-Overlay-Pro-IVR-IV-Skew-Delta-Exp-mv-MurreyMath-Expiry/](https://www.tradingview.com/script/aJMucU2d-Options-Overlay-Pro-IVR-IV-Skew-Delta-Exp-mv-MurreyMath-Expiry/)

TanukiTrade

This is for those looking to take advantage of distortions and opportunities in the options chain. The key point is that if there’s a PUT pricing skew, you don’t buy puts. Instead, you might open a simple PUT butterfly on your desired time frame or perhaps a broken wing butterfly. If both IV and IVR are low, and there’s an IVx skew (marked in purple), you’d typically opt for a time spread instead. Of course: options knowledge is required as always.

TanukiTrade

**🔹 Delta Skew 🌪️ (Twist)** We have a new metric that examines which monthly expiration indicates a "Delta Skew Twist" where the 16 delta deviates from the monthly STD. This is important because, under normal circumstances, the 16 delta is positioned between the expected move and the standard deviation (STD1) line (see Exp.mv & 1STD exact definitions above). However, if the interpolated 16 delta line exceeds the STD1 line either upwards or downwards, it represents a special case of vertical skew on the option chain. Normal case : *exp.move <* ***delta16*** *< std1* **Delta Skew Twist:** *exp.move < std1 <* ***delta16*** We indicate this with direction-specific colors (red/green) on the delta line. We also color the section of the delta curve affected by the delta skew in this case, even if you choose to display a lower delta, such as 30, instead of 16. If "Colored Labels with Tooltips" is enabled, we also display a 🌪️ symbol in the tooltip for the expirations affected by Delta Skew. If you have enabled the display of 'Vertical Pricing Skew' on the IVR Panel, a 🌪️ symbol will also appear next to the value of the vertical skew, and the tooltip will indicate from which expiration Delta Skew is observed. Detailed documentation is here: [https://www.tradingview.com/script/aJMucU2d-Options-Overlay-Pro-IVR-IV-Skew-Delta-Exp-mv-MurreyMath-Expiry/](https://www.tradingview.com/script/aJMucU2d-Options-Overlay-Pro-IVR-IV-Skew-Delta-Exp-mv-MurreyMath-Expiry/) I recommend new medium article to read: [https://medium.com/@tanukitrade/how-to-use-expected-move-to-improve-your-options-trading-strategy-4fd220be97e6](https://medium.com/@tanukitrade/how-to-use-expected-move-to-improve-your-options-trading-strategy-4fd220be97e6)

Due_Gap9499

1 - I don't know, havent you concentrated way too much capital on nvidia? You should trade much, much smaller and diversify. Concentrating capital isn't how you play probabilities in your favor. And options trading is all about probabilities.. 2 - I don't understand if you're short or long options on NVIDIA. I had a short strangle on NVDIA opened 2 weeks ago when IVR was at 70. When IV dropped to 45, I cashed 2/3rds of the premium overnight. The problem is I didn't buy back ( = closed the short position ), a rule of thumb being to close your position whenever you hit 50% of max gain (without thinking, as a mechanic). 3 - I'll close my position today as soon as the market opens, I lost 60% of my gains but I still gained 40% of the premium. 4 - I expect NVIDIA to fall further the next two weeks, brutally. But the name of the game isn't being right about directions, but being right with volatility (that affects option price more than direction), and adapt strategically with enough space and time to be wrong. You're not betting on horses.