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Seeking Thoughts/Sanity Check on A Revised Portfolio
China's economy and potential bull case for Chinese stocks
The huge rally in China ETFs looks like it’s finally winning over American investors (Bloomberg). How do you feel about China ETFs or companies as an allocation in your portfolio?
China is fucked. So lets make money. (ASHR, EWH, MCHI, WYNN) - A picturebook discussing possible contagion of the fallout.
Mentions
There are China-focused ETFs like MCHI.
Maybe take a look at buying mcap weighted indexes of other developed nations. Like XIC (Canada), EDEN (Denmark) EWY (Korea), MCHI (China)..... Etc etc
Options on Chinese ETFs: FXI, KWEB, MCHI. Trading for next to nothing. What am I missing? (aside from a life on a Sat)
FXI, KWEB, MCHI (Gyna ETFs) option are trading with little premium. Good lil hedge.
My VWO is up 3.26% in five years. China equity ETFs haven’t recovered. Pull up mchi MCHI is up 1.41% to $62.52. Check it out on Yahoo Finance https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHI?p=MCHI
Looking to invest in China through MCHI, or someone can suggest a better ETF that tracks the Chinese stock market. Also adding BTC, Gold and more Canadian exposure to the mix. Can no longer afford to overweight the US in my portfolio.
you guys should really start looking at after hours volume short quantum except CCCX vix calls: VXX short crypto: ethd & mstz long oil and nat gas stocks: VG DVN UCO short semis: SOXS buy china: KWEB MCHI CPNG
> You might notice that markets with growth are all US allies such as Japan, Korea and German (and gold and btc) while the hangseng and SSE are in line with SPY. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,MCHI,EWJ,EWG,EWY&p=4&O=011000
If you adjust those index to USD, the % numbers look **significantly** higher for YTD. **South Korea**: EWY **is up over 80%** before dividend and today's up from market news. **Hong Kong**: MCHI **is up over 40%** before dividend and today's up from market news. **Greece**: GREK **is up over 62%** before dividend. **Spain**: EWP **is up over 60%** before dividend and so forth.
Uh huh... and that's why Spain over **60% YTD** (EWP) Greece over **62% YTD** (GREK) Korea over **80% YTD** (EWY) China over 40% YTD (MCHI) Japan over 23% YTD (EWJ) France over 27% YTD (EWQ) etc.. **VXUS is up over 28% YTD with dividends. VTI over 15% YTD in comparison.**
Personally I’m in Xiaomi, Alibaba, BYD, Baidu, Tencent, MCHI, stuff like that. I got wrecked today but long term I just feel like the Chinese companies are gonna be more competitive globally than they’ve currently priced
Hey there, I see this all the time and sometimes comment on it: the old "missed out while I was waiting on a magical entry point" dilemma. You won't like this much, but what if you just looked at charts, saw they were going up, and wanted to get in on some of that action? Like literally, "That chart is going up, why don't I buy some of that?" Performance-chasing, momentum investing, trend-following, whatever you want to call it, [momentum in equities persists](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927538X18303998?via%3Dihub#preview-section-references). But it actually works better with ETFs, being baskets of stocks in the same market or sector or whatever. And you named one of them, KWEB. Some others with options are ASHR, CNYA, CHIQ, ECNS, FXI, GXC, & MCHI. What I would do is plot 3 of those against each other and pick the 'best' one based on the price action. Plot 3 more, pick 1. Then the last 2, pick 1. That gives you 3 'best' of their group. Maybe plot those 3 against each other and pick the 'very' best one. Or probably better: invest in all 3. And if you think ETFs are boring, figure out the leverage that a 1-year, 80-delta Call on any of those tickers gives you. And don't wait for "an entry point," other than maybe a down day; but when you have cash, deploy it. Don't you wish now you'd just jumped into any of the tickers you named when they first came to your attention? Good luck!
I plan to buy more MCHI, NATO and URA this morning.
Yes, stick to **ETFs**! That's a lesson I've taught myself over and over through the years, but this time I really mean it! I JUST got done typing this up to my sister, 2 years younger than my 62, so I'll paste it here in case it's of any use to you. Best of luck to you! x-x-x-x Divide your money into 5 ETFs equally. ETFs are safer than individual stocks. So each position will get a 20% allocation. **Gold** will have a permanent slot, using the ETFs **GLD** or **IAU**. **US Treasury bonds** will have a permanent slot. **TLT** for that (which are 20-year Treasuries). Then I'll choose 3 others based on recent 3 to 6-month performance. Right now tonight, those might be: **MCHI, ARKW, NLR** Check them after a month, run a new scan, and replace any that are underperforming. To get you a little bit excited about that, here's a chart of **NLR** over the past 6 months: [https://imgur.com/a/pDWXDzD](https://imgur.com/a/pDWXDzD) 64% in 6 months. And sure, it might not do that for the *next* 6 months, but it should keep going up for a while. And when it *stops* going up, you find something else that *is* going up. Here's a 3-month view of **GLD** and **TLT**: [https://imgur.com/a/n8tI3u0](https://imgur.com/a/n8tI3u0) They're in the mix not so much for their gains, but for a bit of protection, because they usually move the opposite way as the market, especially when the market moves down hard and fast.
I second **GDX** and **XME**. **XLU** has been good to me, but this little dip lately hasn't been fun. Mostly I wanted to second this: >I use LEAPS to add leverage to...ETFs. ETFs often get overlooked, but many of them actually have great returns: **GDX** 106% ytd, **XME** 52% And some don't: **XLU** 13% ytd But add the leverage of LEAPS Calls and watch out! For **XLU** you get 5.3 times leverage, adjusted for delta. So that ho-hum 13% becomes 68%, which is more than solid. Then sell low-delta Calls against them if you like, for a little extra juice. ETFS are quite a bit safer than individual stocks, because they don't have "single-issue risk." I use Barchart's ETF screener on 3-month performance (Has Options, Volume >1M shares), then look at their charts till I find **smooth** ones. Going up, of course, but 'smooth' takes precedence over return. Some others I like right now: **SIL/SILJ, MAGS, MCHI, XLC**
China is in a bubble. Margin loans are at a record high. I’m thinking of getting some FXI, MCHI, or ASHR puts tomorrow or early next week. I haven’t seen anyone mention Chinese stocks here forever, but that shit’s always been a house of cards. Looking at you LKNCY
so look at the 5 year chart for MCHI. There's probably only a handful of companies that are investable. Companies like Alibaba, BYD, Tencent, Xpeng, Xiaomi. Basically the larger companies. But hey if you like some risk look at small cap Chinese stocks like autonomous vehicles (PONY AI, WRD). Good luck.
I still don't trust the data out of chinese corporations. Also, zoom out to the 5+ year chart compared to the S&P 500. The YTD return on MCHI is about the same as VGK where there is more trust in the entities and the audits of financial statements of those companies.
Since you seem to have an interest in chinese high-tech, KWEB may interest you. MCHI is my personal choice.
As I mentioned in another comment, the benchmark uses the MSCI indices for each country, gross return (i.e. inclusive of dividends), denominated in USD. Specifically, it uses the investable market index (IMI), which also includes smaller companies. There isn't an ETF product directly linked to the MSCI USA IMI index, but this is basically completely correlated with the CRSP US Total Stock Market index, to which VTI is benchmarked. They basically [move together](https://i.imgur.com/JCuCF1c.png). There also aren't ideal country-specific ETF products to track the IMI. For instance, the [MSCI China IMI index](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/664216) has 784 holdings, but Blackrock's MCHI tracks MSCI China, not the IMI, and only has 550 holdings. It also has an expense ratio of 0.59%, and similary across the board for all the country-specific ETFs. You do get a better comparison if you go with broad international ETFs, instead of country specific ones: - Blackrock's IDEV tracks the MSCI World ex USA IMI index for 0.04% (developed ex-US). - Blackrock's IEMG tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets IMI index for 0.07%. As you can see, there is some slight tracking error between the ETFs and the indices they track, but it has actually favored the ETFs so far this year (i.e. better for investors).
60% of my salary goes into a mix of VGT VOO MCHI INDA IBIT every month
My August MCHI calls have been going great! Now that I’m up 100% do I greed for the delta exponentially boosting my returns?
What happened to MCHI after hours cannot be legal
Domestically, read where the utility sector is the least correlated with the broad stock market, though they’ll take a hit in a serious recession. The developed international markets (VEA, IDEV, IEFA) might have started to become uncorrelated with the U.S. market, as they were from 1950 - ‘00s. Emerging markets are a bit new and China has its own schedule so far, so could separate it (FXX, MCHI). The rest of the emerging market may depend on India’s growth, so separate it out a bit further (EMXC but Vanguard is coming out with their own version).
I can’t predict that, but I bought BYDDY and PDD because they seem like buy and hold companies for the next decade. And I bought LEAPS on MCHI because I think China will rebound aggressively in the next 2 years or so.
Just got my dad to make his first option trade. 10k on MCHI calls for August 15th. Here comes Wang Yang pro reform China!
I wouldn't go so far as "China good," but I did pick up a few shares of MCHI about a month ago, and it's looking pretty decent. I mostly pivoted to Europe, though. Only 8% in China.
MCHI, INDA, IBIT, DBS SP (Cause I’m Singaporean)
Opening a bigger position on MCHI now
What actually happens in that case? I own a number of Chinese ADRs and MCHI, would it basically be like a forced sale into cash?
So if we're trading Chinese stuff now... Do ASHR, MCHI, CHIQ, or FXI have stupid leveraged/inverse ETFs?
MCHI dropped 6.8% today. U.S. goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.5 billion, down 2.9 percent ($4.2 billion) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from China in 2024 totaled $438.9 billion, up 2.8 percent ($12.1 billion) from 2023. It will hurt more China, they have more to lose.
Somehow I missed you mentioning MCHI in your comment. I’m not sure I understand why investing in Chinese-only stocks through a US ETF is an issue, but there appear to be limitations on Americans investing directly. If you’re with Fidelity you may want to read their FAQ on international investing, which notably doesn’t list China as an option. https://www.fidelity.com/stock-trading/faqs-international You can however find SSEC on Fidelity by searching .SSEC, with a period.
What are you searching for/how are you searching? I found a few with a quick google, including MCHI, which is available in Fidelity. The Fidelity ETF screener also lists a few under iShares that seem to be China-focused.
I tried to post this question but it got auto-removed. How do I go about buying Chinese stock investments or index funds? With the state America is in, investing in China seems like as good a play as any right now, especially since after COVID, they never have really recovered. If anything, their economy could outperform many in the "western world" through the next few decades. However, I only see ETFs/ETPs such as MCHI or others that invest in AMERICAN Chinese interests. Nothing that just invests directly in China. How do I go about investing directly in China ETFs, such as the SSEC or HKT (not HKTTF because that fluctuates by 20% daily?) - None of these indexes are valid symbols on Fidelity or ETrade.
Who the fuck even looks at YTD on the VOO? How about try 5 years? Yeah those MCHI returns look great LOL.
What timeframe? Year to date? Since I’m talking about buying the future rather than the past…let’s go year to date. VOO -4.96%. MCHI +18.58%. China is on the upswing. Look at the HSI 1 year, 2 year and 5 year. You don’t even know what you’re talking about. LMAO.
LOL “upswing” how about you pull up a chart of MCHI vs VOO.
MCHI is the way to go I guess
Thinking to Move my investments inyo MCHI big time. My only concern is I'm not sure how much I trust Chinas govt, and Trump's random tariffs
Bought LEAPS on CELH ASPN SIRI MCHI NIO and INTC expiring in 2027 and a long SPY strangle expiring 3/14.
Invest in VGK and MCHI. Avoid any US stocks for next year or so.
That's a great question. I've always been scared of Chinese stocks due to extreme volatility, and most European markets have just been crabbing for 20 years. Chinese tech looks attractive and I already sold a put to pick up some MCHI, but it was only a couple years ago their government gutted their tech sector. If you look at history, emerging market ETFs out performed American markets during recessions, so my strategy is to diversify into global markets NOW, and wait to pick up more American blue chips later.
MCHI next largest economy. EUAD for the war machine.
I was 100% sp500 up until last month. I diversified to this: Retirement Accounts: 33 NASDAQ Equal Weight 33 MCHI or International Fund 34 Bonds/Gold Depending on Fund Options Account LEAP Puts on overvalued companies. Especially swasticars. Feeling great about my choices.
Thanks! Wasnt aware of NTES For those curious, IEUR and DAX ETFs do have american options KWEB and FXI have far more volume than CQQQ and MCHI
Wow, EWG ripping YTD. MCHI/FXI up more though
I was going to buy Chinese stocks but am now hesitant. If I were to, I think ETFs like MCHI and FXI are safer than companies
I just read this. If I had money in Chinese stocks as an American I would be selling at open. I made a little last week on MCHI which is a China ETF but I absolutely will not touch China again after reading through this. If there ends up being “restrictions” it will reduce liquidity and those stocks could tank. I also think if and when these things happen it will cause Chinese investors to flee the US markets and that will cause US stocks to drop as well. This is a BIG document.
Yes, that is my original plan, so I hold a bunch of ADRs. [https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=geo\_china&o=-marketcap](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=geo_china&o=-marketcap) It is a safer bet to stay with ADRs and HK ETF such as FXI, MCHI or KWEB. However, I started to realize a riskier but potentially better bet is A-share, then we have to go study ASHR KSTR etc.
I am sitting on a lot of MCHI (China ETF) and INTC at the moment
I think MCHI is the play because BABA will drag the rest of the Chinese market up with it
MCHI going to go on a hell of a run BABA is the first real indicator so I guess I was wrong because China is about to moon as a whole
I bought some Chinese ETFs 2-3 weeks ago. I’m already up 8% and 10%. MCHI and TCHI specifically.
LEAPS on FXY, YCL, TLT, MCHI, and PCG. All about 5% each of my portfolio. The rest is in SPAXX.
Go long MCHI (Ishares China ETF). Play of the decade.
Schd, schg, jepi, roughly equal then smaller XHB home builders and MCHI China.
Generally, you could look at diversify region risk or asset class risk. * There are various international ETFs, like VXUS, which is entire world Index, expect USA. You could also buy country specific ETFs, like MCHI (China) or EEM (Emerging markets), etc. For asset classes: * Bonds (and Bond ETFs) have typically been used to stabilize a portfolio. * Gold is also, supposedly, a good hedge * Foreign currencies (probably risky) * Crypto currencies (probably quite risky) * Real estate and/or REITS * Commodities (metals, oil, etc) You could also invest in your own human labor (ie, getting more skills or education) or start a business. -- This is also interesting, you want something with 0 or negative correlation to SPY: https://www.etfscreen.com/correlation.php
China ETF's on sale $FXI $KWEB $MCHI
MCHI or ASHR. It's not adr, but it represents the general China market.
I bought 1 share of MCHI does that count? 
Blackrock has multiple iShares ETFs (FXI, MCHI). You could get a Direxion 3x levered etf (YINN). Kraneshares has KWEB, an ETF of Chinese internet and tech stocks (CWEB for 2x leverage). Invesco offers CQQQ and PGJ. Pick your poison
My guess is domestic fiscal stimulus will lead the next wave up after big tech $KWEB. $FXI $MCHI $ASHR $CNXT
Yep. It’s not a beauty pageant. The sexiest funds are going for a premium and Chinese companies have become deeply discounted. Even if you factor in 15% of the books being wrong. Michael Burry, Howard Marks, some very intelligent people share the beliefs in China right now. Howard Marks particularly. I don’t know much about China but I know Baidu was selling for extremely cheap but hasn’t grown much in years. MCHI is a good index fund if you don’t know what the hell you’re doing in China but believe that their rapid increase in economic growth over the last century isn’t going to stop now. Their GDP growth in light of huge challenges is remarkable. Buffett has a long held belief they are destined to be one of the great super powers of the world. And they are selling for dirt cheap with every possible risk priced in.
I’ve been contemplating getting into MCHI for months, China ETF. Good luck, have fun!
I set up a diversified portfolio mix of ETFs in one of my boomer-style accounts recently which accidentally excluded Canada. Then I realized that there are no mistakes, just happy little accidents. Fuck Canada. (US stocks via SPDR ETFs, then MSCI ETFs for Europe via IEFA, China via MCHI, emerging markets excluding China via EMXC. Basically MSCI includes Canada in their North America ETFs but SPDR is US only, so this mix includes every country in the world except Canada. Perfect.)
30YO American homeowner. What would you change if these were your holdings? I’m trying to hedge against US inflation and capitalize on other profitable sectors. Thanks in advance ETFs: XLE $921 ARGT $902 XLF $832 XTN $762 EWW $672 VHT $533 KWEB $453 MCHI $452 BETZ $170 Stock: PRU $595
Anyone looking at MCHI? (iShares MSCI China ETF) It seems like they're breaking out of their doldrums and have somehow engineered positive media coverage over the past month or so. The central bank is literally buying up ETFs. [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/china-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-up-etf-shares-in-market-boost?embedded-checkout=true](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-23/china-sovereign-wealth-fund-buys-up-etf-shares-in-market-boost?embedded-checkout=true)
Bought some calls for MCHI , picking up on every lil drop.
How difficult do you think it is to get better risk-adjusted return than the US stock market (i.e. VTI) over the long run when you manage your own portfolio? Manage your portfolio as in DCA into ETFs like VTI, QQQ, BND, TLT, etc. but quarterly rebalance at my discretion. Maybe even diversify into international stocks like VGK, FLJP, and MCHI. I'm guessing very difficult since this is basically what fund managers do, and ones that can outperform the market get paid a bazillion.
I'm kind of getting out of VOO and adding more IWM and some MCHI. VOO is nice but it's hard to see upside to megacaps but easy to see tons of upside to IWM when rate cuts hit. Look at the 10 year charts. IWM is at a 15% discount from where it should be. China could have a 30-35% run before the elections in the US.
I actually just added MCHI with my Bitcoin profits oddly enough. I think China's bottom is in. Recession is official.
I think it’s a good time to get into china. Some funds I use have have recently added MCHI
FLCH tracks the FTSE index. MCHI tracks the MSCI index. They're interchangeable for all intents and purposes. One year one outperforms, another year the other outperforms, but they approximate each over time, so I would just go with the lower expense ratio fund. FLCH is the newer fund, so it's lower AUM which means less liquid, but I wouldn't worry about it too much as it's likely something you aren't going to notice.
I like your thinking of getting in while it's down. It's called "Buy Low, Sell High" right? I found some information on ETF Database (https://etfdb.com/etfs/country/china/). Doing some quick research, it seems KBA has a good total return. It gets 4 stars on Morningstar, but it's overall return was probably affected by their $12.30 dividend in December of '22, which was out of place for their 5 year average annual dividend of around $1.23. CBON comes in 2nd on my list for 5 year total return. The ETF gets 5 stars on Morningstar. It also sends a more consistent dividend. It, however, is an ETF for Chinese Bonds. Coming in 3rd on my list for 5 year total return in CHIQ, getting 2 stars on Morningstar. CNYA arrived in 4th place on my list for 5 year total return. It does indeed invest in Chinese equities. It gets 5 stars on Morningstar. It pays a relatively consistent twice yearly dividend. MCHI actually comes in 14th place (based on total return) on my list of 25 ETF's, also only getting two stars on Morningstar. If I had to make a recommendation, I'd recommend CNYA, but I am not a financial advisor and investing has risks. ;-)
- MCHI launched 13 years ago with a negative 5% total return over that period - it’s been “cheap” by PE relative valuation forever, there is no mean reversion here, the country is 💩 - China demographics are fucked bc of one child policy and many young people are leaving while they can. It’s mostly the educated and skilled ones that flee too. - Chinese young people who stay aren’t having kids. Youth unemployment is over 30% by some accounts and possibly 50%. - it’s hard to get a job and even harder to keep one. The “curse of 35” in China means companies won’t hire you after age 35 so single people in 30s can’t afford to marry or start families - China has to create bullshit government jobs to keep it’s fake unemployment stats up - Businesses are offshoring from China and going to more business friendly EM markets - China hostility and unpredictability has led most institutions to pull out as well TLDR : CHINA IS FAKE AND GAY
Jesus Christ. China is a failed state. Look at MCHI return since inception, it’s NEGATIVE 5% over thirteen years SPY is up 374% over same period China is completely uninvestable
Hello degenerates, rookie investor here. About a week ago I put a put option on a Chinese ETF,(MCHI) in hopes that there market would continue to tank. I had gone up about 30% but then this week commenced and my contract lost 50% of its value. Do you guys believe the bailouts by the Chinese governments will stimulate their markets again and thus screw me, or do you think there is hope for my position and Chinese stocks will go for even lower lows again. I’m very curious for a discussion
Hello degenerates, rookie investor here. About a week ago I put a put option on a Chinese ETF,(MCHI) in hopes that there market would continue to tank. I had gone up about 30% but then this week commenced and my contract lost 50% of its value. Do you guys believe the bailouts by the Chinese governments will stimulate their markets again and thus screw me, or do you think there is hope for my position and Chinese stocks will go for even lower lows again. I’m very curious for a discussion
Hello degenerates, rookie investor here. About a week ago I put a put option on a Chinese ETF,(MCHI) in hopes that there market would continue to tank. I had gone up about 30% but then this week commenced and my contract lost 50% of its value. Do you guys believe the bailouts by the Chinese governments will stimulate their markets again and thus screw me, or do you think there is hope for my position and Chinese stocks will go for even lower lows again. I’m very curious for a discussion
Buy puts for shares China index https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHI/options?date=1737072000 You could also hedge by buying emerging markets generally to make sure China doesn't benefit from a general uptick there. Short apple and tesla for large American companies with heavy China exposure.
Are you sure you would even want to share China. Like when you look at the Hang Seng Index or US listed China ETFs Like FXI or MCHI they are all down 50%+ from there highest. The risk to reward to me isnt that great to be wanting to short. Yes it may drop another 20% but if anything I would be looking and keeping an eye on it to start a long when narrative starts getting little more positive.
Buy ETFs like KWEB or MCHI to diversify your risk if you’re going into China
My favorite exercise with Chinese stocks is to go to portfolio backtest visualizer. Enter MCHI and IVV. Click inflation adjusted. MCHI $10k invested in December 2011 becomes $9453 on 31 December 2023. IVV $10k becomes $35069 QQQ $10k becomes $60298 EFA (developed markets without NA) becomes $15,985. An investment in China ETF in 2011 over a 12-year span, and back then China was not facing today's issues, lost money after inflation. Including dividends. Now they're facing huge issues. Meanwhile the SP500 delivered 3.5x and Nasdaq100 delivered 6x. After all that there are still people who care about Chinese stocks. There are people who would still put money into Chinese stocks. Someone said insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Puts on China. I just bought March 15 puts on MCHI, a China index ETF. The Chinese market is cratering.
🇨🇳 MCHI 40bps gain so small 🇺🇸 American Nasdaq 1.3% gain so BIG In awe of huge American gains
Checking in on MCHI Since inception return over past 13 years… NEGATIVE 8% 🇺🇸
China ETF MCHI since inception (3/31/2011) return -5.5% SPY outperformed China by over 360% Gyms is a Shit-tier economy
China has been such a bad investment it is unfathomable If you bought MCHI at launch 13 years ago you LOST MONEY even after dividends
Look at the MCHI ETF chart since inception in 2011 -27% all time It’s due any day now!
MCHI launched 3/31/2011 In nearly 13 years, it made 2.18% total ( 0.17% annually) China stocks have always been a terrible investment. It’s a scam economy
MCHI total return since it launched in 2011 is -0.85%