NPV

Initial-Structure-28

I’m pretty sure it’s NPV of revenues is less than its market cap.

Initial-Structure-28

It’s overvalued by any reasonable NPV and anyone arguing against that in here is financially illiterate. 

bootsupondesk

TMC just got a bump in NPV https://x.com/gamblioc100/status/2016998314697228415?s=20

summerfel

I don’t think so… with commodity prices ripping higher, the underlying value of the project has outpaced the share price. WRN is trading at a $1b mkt cap vs. a NPV of $9-10b. Still a lot of room to re-rate higher. I hope the stock has a chance to reach closer to fair value before a major takes it out. All the big mining companies are desperate for copper and gold in Canada.

pinnerbluntz

I like Surge copper. Here’s a claude summary. Surge Copper (SURG.V) is massively undervalued given current conditions. Their Berg Project in BC has a C$2.1B NPV at $4.00/lb copper, but copper is currently trading at $5.82/lb - meaning the project economics are ~50% better than their PEA assumed. Yet the company trades at only C$200M market cap (~4% of NPV). The real kicker: Canada is in nation-building mode after the US trade fallout, and PM Mark Carney is fast-tracking resource projects through the new Major Projects Office with 2-year max approval timelines. Berg would add ~15% to Canada’s copper production and fits perfectly with their strategic priorities. With the PFS due H1 2026, permitting risk significantly reduced, copper in a structural deficit, and the stock trading at 4 cents on the dollar of NPV, this could easily be a 5-10x over the next few years if they execute and get MPO support.

Aromatic_Pianist792

The stock price has increased a lot, but so has the NPV of the metal in the ground. That extra $2000 per ounce of gold and $2 per pound of copper since last year is all free cash flow. Of course, that is all dependent on the project actually advancing. If they can manage all of the many logistical hurdles, they'll be bought out at a much higher price than what they're currently at. But it won't be easy and will likely take a lot of time.

TylerBlozak

Look at their deposits (berg and Ootska) and also observe their current mkt cap vs NPV @$6 copper

Usual_Retard_6859

The government already got ten cents on the dollar. NPV for their flagship project in pre-feasibility study phase is $1.56b, Federal government got a 10% stake for $1.6b.

LastUltimateY0l0

Yeah the NPV is a lot lower (was trying to learn more last night) than China but I think the asymmetric upside to a western market is still there

Rare-Chemical868

Nice little project. The economics aren't that great because tungsten is a small market dominated by China who has beaten the price down to levels that make it not make sense to produce tungsten in higher cost places. The best mines in the world rarely are turned off. There is a reason why this project is not producing Tungsten currently. The NPV numbers aren't that great vs. the market cap. Value is thin GLTA

adizzle2517

Come up with an idea of industries that you believe have a future. You’ll want to invest in something that you believe in and won’t freak out if it drops x%. Patience is key, follow your research and don’t chase FOMO. I use ChatGPT a ton and if you give it good prompts, make sure to keep it honest of current prices etc. then you can get list of potential companies and start deep diving from there. I’ve used it to go deep on junior miners and honed in on 2-3 solid plays (BHLL, SVRSF, TLOFF) I can largely ignore and sleep well at night. Ask prompts/questions about peer comparisons on market cap, dilution, leadership pedigree, institutional ownership, outstanding warrants, and even projected share price based on catalysts, NPV, FCF etc.

Separate-Permit2522

🇸🇪🇳🇴 NORDIC MINING JUNIOR STOCK TIP & DISCUSSION STOCK TIP: Grangex (GRANGX, First North Stockholm) —near-production, ultra-high-grade iron ore developer with potential near-term explosive upside - Restarting Sydvaranger mine in Kirkenes, Norway - Large-scale ultra-high-grade iron ore (European) - Brownfield restart with maintained infrastructure and equipment - Near production: FID targeted Q1 2026, first ore Q4 2026 - ~25-year life of mine (latest DFS) - 100% of production sold to Anglo American - Anglo able to provide bank-like project lending - Top-tier financing advisors: DNB Carnegie, ABG Sundal Collier, SB1 Markets - $37m royalty removed by Anglo → improved project economics - Own rail + deep-water harbor - Valuation: trading at a material discount to DFS NPV Do your own research. The clock is ticking — good risk, good reward. DISCUSSION: What’s your take on Grangex at this stage — or are there any other mining juniors (Nordic or global) with similar near-term upside and a comparable risk profile that you’re watching?

Separate-Permit2522

🇸🇪🇳🇴 NORDIC MINING JUNIOR STOCK TIP & DISCUSSION STOCK TIP: Grangex (GRANGX, First North Stockholm) —near-production, ultra-high-grade iron ore developer with potential near-term explosive upside - Restarting Sydvaranger mine in Kirkenes, Norway - Large-scale ultra-high-grade iron ore (European) - Brownfield restart with maintained infrastructure and equipment - Near production: FID targeted Q1 2026, first ore Q4 2026 - ~25-year life of mine (latest DFS) - 100% of production sold to Anglo American - Anglo able to provide bank-like project lending - Top-tier financing advisors: DNB Carnegie, ABG Sundal Collier, SB1 Markets - $37m royalty removed by Anglo → improved project economics - Own rail + deep-water harbor - Valuation: trading at a material discount to DFS NPV Do your own research. The clock is ticking — good risk, good reward. DISCUSSION: What’s your take on Grangex at this stage — or are there any other mining juniors (Nordic or global) with similar near-term upside and a comparable risk profile that you’re watching?

SameCategory546

it’s really difficult to value mines on an NPV basis and you have to check on their assumptions, which is even more difficult because this is a different type of mining. You never know when someone is bullshitting you on their feasibility study I think you have to rely on technical analysis for this one.

siddsp

Tesla doesn't need the recurring revenue to be profitable over one time subscription. They can calculate the NPV of the recurring profit from subscription and convert that to a one time purchase price.

One-Replacement-37

🤡 The only “absolute trash stock” that: • ⁠Pumped 700% in 2025 • ⁠Was the subject of a dedicated Executive Order, 2x legislative bills, and several house hearings • ⁠Got congress to mandate the DoW to explore a multi-year procurement contract on the basis of national security • ⁠Was the reason behind the first NOAA DSM policy changes since 1970 • ⁠Convinced Alex Spiro, Steve Jurvetson (SpaceX, Tesla), the Hess family, and AllSeas - the largest maritime contractor in the world, to go all in & join the board of directors • ⁠Got the U.S. to give the middle finger to the international seabed authority, against all other countries • ⁠Has not diluted its shareholders and have sufficient cash (+ including warrants) to go to production • ⁠Have a combined NPV of $23.6B worth of copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt - when a global shortage of those metals is ongoing, and while the world is in needs to mine as much copper in 18 years that we have mined in the past 10,000 years combined • ⁠Got their CEO a semi-permanent hotel room at the white house • ⁠Is lobbied the the 3 consecutive years top lobbyist of Washington (Samir Kapadia) See you at the top.

One-Replacement-37

🤡🤡🤡 The only “absolute trash stock” that: - Pumped 700% in 2025 - Was the subject of a dedicated Executive Order, and 2x legislative bills - Was the reason behind the first NOAA DSM policy changes since 1970 - Convinced Alex Spiro, Steve Jurvetson (SpaceX, Tesla), the Hess family, and AllSeas - the largest maritime contractor in the world, to go all in & join the board of directors - Got the U.S. to give the middle finger to the international seabed authority, against all other countries - Has not diluted its shareholders and have sufficient cash (+ including warrants) to go to production - Have a combined NPV of $23.6B worth of copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt - when a global shortage of those metals is ongoing, and while the world is in needs to mine as much copper in 18 years that we have mined in the past 10,000 years combined 👌👌👌 See you at the top.

SPACmanJones

Been in $tmc and $tmcww for like 1.5 years. Holding til at least $20 or $0. This guys correct about it being a great binary play. The 700% is baseless though. Based on the NPV of their claims it'd trade more in like $25-30 range if they get their license. Probably trade a under that. But it's also a new technology, new market, hype with critical minerals and national security. Also if prices of manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt rise that changes the valuation of their claims. So it might trade higher. Company has ties to Trump, Musk, and big time oil execs. CEO was in DC a lot a few months ago but things have been quiet lately. Also potential to be one of the next companies the U.S. takes a stake in.

gravescd

Treasuries have a constant coupon rate regardless of inflation, except for TIPS. They are cash flow and their price is based substantially on the NPV of that cash flow. Gold is a universal intermediary among currencies with almost no intrinsic value. Its price is supply/demand and vibes. These are entirely different assets and have different functions in a portfolio. OP wants to replace Treasuries due to uncertainty in the dollar, so it doesn't make sense to suggest a non-cash flow asset with totally different pricing dynamics. There are plenty of bonds out there not tied to USD liquidity.

Prudent-Corgi3793

I didn't want this stock, but I ended up with this because I own CMCSA. According to Seeking Alpha consensus earnings estimates, it's trading at 2026E P/E 3.34, 2027E P/E 4.14, and 2028 P/E 4.31. That was assuming a market cap of $5.29 billion, but according to Stock Analysis, it's now trading with a market cap of $4.85 billion, presumably because it's fallen so much in the first few days of trading after the spin off. If so, it's even cheaper. According to SA, equity (book value) is $10.29 billion, which would put its P/B at about 0.5. These metrics are possibly really unreliable given the recent spinoff and the lack of coverage as it's now a small cap, but it almost certainly is encountering adverse selling pressure due to no longer belonging in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and other significant indices. So my plan is to hold for a little bit anyway to wait for the forced selling to dissipate, and hopefully have some better information to work with. Assuming these numbers and estimates are accurate, using a 10% discount rate and assuming that this is a dying company (like the rest of the cable industry) that will lose net income at 5% per year, I still have the NPV of the next few years of EPS being worth more than the current stock price. I'd really love to know when the first earnings report will be before I decide what to do with this position. I can see myself selling my remaining shares or even adding more.

stoned2brds

It actually is Otherwise they hold cash and we know all about inflation. Well the finance people do. What it'll do is force them to take all NPV positive projects in essence. So yeah PPE and manufacturing would increase. Pretty obvious.

TylerBlozak

Nice. It’s a super risky play in regards to the development timeline and the jurisdiction. I still think there’s an outside chance of a junta take over once Dasa is operational, but I’ll be divested before then. Waiting for $2 USD. It’s currently only valued at like 16% of NPV (@ $80 spot U) so the general sentiment of institutions isn’t overwhelmingly full of conviction. What entices me is that Dasa is one of the few prospective greenfield plays out there, which makes it very unique. Plus being at this stage of the DFC approval process (especially since the last update) bodes well since the approval rate is like 95% for projects that have made it this far. Can’t wait till late Jan!

sylov

One question i had: at current valuations, say the zinc mine is worth 100-200m, and the NPV of graphite is stated to be worth ~500m, giving this a haircut (lets say to 300m), we are in the ballpark of 400-500m. Do you think this realistically has asset value to be a multibagger from here or has most of the money been made? The chairman has multiple great exits too. I guess they could expand or get into other minerals from here but thats speculative. Love the idea due to the leverage provided by a successful zinc mine, just wondering on the upside potential.

SomeoneNicer

The current value is supposed to be the NPV of future dividends the company will pay out. Anything else and it's the greater fool theory which sure you can believe in and invest based on - but it's just a theory and gets "broken" every major market correction that resets values back below book value due to behavioral economics. If you haven't, check out Yale's free Financial Markets course, it helps explain a ton of market functions and theories in great detail.

choconou

it’s easy i calculated npv with correction of errors: mix of ore and a component of ore which bear valuable metals , eudialyte , also a product of process of ore in Greenland . oblivion of Ta Ga Rb Hf use of a extraordinary discount rate , 15% instrad of usual 8% with that he divided NPV by 12 to 32 nobody talk of these 3 errors but only of the errors inflating NPV , those errors multiply by 3 NPV bringing it from 1 B$ to 3B$ . globally NPV in PEA is divided by 4, without hafnium to10 ( with hafnium at 44% of world price)

choconou

CRML ought to rise by 700% or even 2000% , with 2 effects: the correction of Net Positive Value of 3B$ in awful Preliminary Economic Assessment of Tanbreez , a giant deposit in Greenland. Rise if probablity that project is developped with rise of NPV PEA is terrible , there are 3 enormous mistakes which decrease NPV : Attribution of ore contents in valuable metals to a component of ore , Eudialyte , bearing valuable metals and present at 17% in ore . Oblivion of gallium, tantalum and mostly hafnium worth more than all other metals . Use of 15% discount rate .

Longjumping-Bid-9523

Why does this solicitation not include some verifiable metrics (e.g. DFC analysis leading to NPV, copper and cobalt grade, strip ratio, C1 cash costs) or even geo coordinates?

sherwoodf99

Mkango / Hypromag have patented HPMS technology to recover and recycle rare earths, and have commercialised production with product sales.  Market cap is not factoring in at all how advanced they are with the tech and operations! NASDAQ listing of ther mining and refining business due in Q1 2026, valued at more than the current market cap. #MKA significantly undervalued at $240m. Competitor USAR for example valued at $2.6 billion. Market is completely asleep with regards to Mkango valuation. Recycling facility in UK fully operational, Germany in next few weeks, potential for Japan, Canada and Korea. USA looking at 3 initial facilities, with up to 7 to 10 total, each with NPV over $600m. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MKA/mkango-releases-q3-2025-results-4vudopmg9gchhdc.html

sherwoodf99

Mkango / Hypromag have patented HPMS technology to recover and recycle rare earths, and have commercialised production with product sales.  Market cap is not factoring in at all how advanced they are with the tech and operations! NASDAQ listing of ther mining and refining business due in Q1 2026, valued at more than the current market cap. #MKA significantly undervalued at $240m. Competitor USAR for example valued at $2.6 billion. Market is completely asleep with tegatds to Mkango valuation. Recycling facility in UK fully operational, Germany in next few weeks, potential for Japan, Canada and Korea. USA looking at 3 initial facilities, with up to 7 to 10, each with NPV over $600m. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MKA/mkango-releases-q3-2025-results-4vudopmg9gchhdc.html

JohnWCreasy1

IMO its really hard to come up with a good scenario where the NPV of the weekly payout equals a million bucks. I'd go so far as to argue that if a scenario arose where the $1000 was favorable (deflation), there might also be the risk the lottery agency can no longer pay. i would take the $1M but i suppose i could imagine scenarios where there are other non-financial reasons to want the security of the weekly payout

Phazem

Bro this looks exactly like mine. Full puts on everything on robinhood while sitting in my morning finance clsss ignoring all the bonds NPV bs

ButtStuffingt0n

Oh sweet summer child. The market hasn't actually used NPV to trade since the early 90s. If it did, 95% of the market would have zero daily trading volume.

2020Macthedog

I assume you know what net present value (NPV) is. So a bond funds is essentially the NPV of a pile of bonds. The key variable in the calculation is the interest rate used. When you buy a bond for a given duration and interest rate you pay a set price and then (for some) you get paid a coupon at a set interval. At the end you get your principle back. Now say that interest rates go up. What happens? For the bond funds the price will instantaneously reflect the total impact on the NPV of its pile of bonds. Fund could tank a lot. For the bond, the price of the bond drops but nothing else happens. You still receive the coupon and you still get all of your capital back in the end. Make any sense?

IawahR

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/14/3188501/0/en/Euro-Sun-Welcomes-Romania-s-Steps-to-Adopt-the-European-Union-s-Critical-Raw-Materials-Act-and-Reports-Stronger-Project-Economics-With-NPV-Rising-to-US-1-78-Billion-at-Rovina-Valle.html The Romanian government and Europe as a whole is rallying behind the project, with a great management team and fantastic evaluation of the project itself, and countless de-risking events having taken place.

Happy_Discussion_536

No you don't retard because money today has more value than money later. Ugh I've already engaged with you too long. I'm sorry you don't understand basic finance and you need to open a book. I can't teach you this. Unless you bring something substantial to the table that's new I can't engage with you further on this topic. If you don't understand how you will do far better than 3% real borrowing rate by compounding from year 30 to year 50 I can't help you. Best of luck, this is my last comment in this thread. If you say something worthwhile and new that demonstrates your understanding of how to do NPV calculations work I will respond.

Sufficient_Leek2779

I would do an NPV and IRR calculation to check if the project will pay off

bitorontoguy

Outperforming the market on a relative basis doesn't involve like "tricks" that stop working. There are fundamental biases in the market that you can use to outperform over a full market cycle. They haven't "stopped working". The whole job is trying to find good companies that we think are priced below their fundamental valuation. We do that by trying to model the business and its future cash flows and discount those cash flows to get an NPV. Is it easy? No. Is it a guarantee short-term profit? No. Will my stock picks always pay off? No. The future is impossible to predict. But if we're right like 55% of the time and consistently follow our process, we'll outperform, which we have. Glad to recommend books on how professionals actually approach the market if you're legitimately interested. If you're not? Fuck it, you can VTI and chill and approximate 95+% of what my job is with zero effort.

PossibilityNo7360

Yes, the 40m is correct but i need to correct myself. I only started my DD on this so plz anyone chip in. The legacy wells (Seven Rivers) have a NPV10 of $208m. The new farm-out agreement of San Andres is $95m. So i get 208/40 = 5.2$ NAV per share for the legacy wells and 2.3$ NAV per share = 7.5$ per share. Let's take a discount of 40% that yields $4.5 NAV per share. That excludes the newly acquired. Given it is Texas (not California), mature oil field - the execution risk is minimal?

PossibilityNo7360

of course crude oil price is volatile but i was referring to any execution risk? The Graburg Jackson Field has a NPV10 of \~$95m so divided by 25m shares outstanding i get to a $3.8 NAV per share! that is 7x the actual share price. very rough math but it indicates the uspside potential

Significant_Gene7582

Okay regard, a quick Chat GPT says: TL/DR.....YOU are a REGARD! **DNN = Denison Mines** — a Canada-based uranium developer focused on the **Wheeler River** project (Athabasca Basin, SK). The near-term story is the **Phoenix ISR** deposit. # Why DNN is on radars right now * **Permitting is in the home stretch:** Provincial environmental assessment **approved Aug 2025**. Remaining **federal approvals** (EA + License to Prepare Site & Construct) are scheduled for **CNSC public hearings in Oct and Dec 2025**. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-receives-provincial-environmental-assessme-122827/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Timeline if approvals land:** Company guidance targets **construction in early 2026** and **first production in H1 2028** for Phoenix ISR. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/site/assets/files/6716/denison_mines_corp__denison_reports_cnsc_hearing_dates_for_phoen.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Economics/tech:** Phoenix has a completed **feasibility study (ISR mining)**; Denison is also advancing **Midwest ISR** (PEA: after-tax NPV \~$965M, IRR \~83%). [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/projects/wheeler-river-project/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # “Government funding” angle * Most current **U.S. DOE/DoD uranium procurement/funding** programs primarily benefit **U.S.-based producers** (e.g., UUUU, URG, UEC). DNN, being Canadian, would **benefit indirectly** via uranium price and Western supply-chain support, not from U.S. checks to Denison. Canada, however, is politically supportive of nuclear fuel supply growth; policy tailwinds + permitting progress are the nearer catalysts. [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/3bd80044-1b75-42d0-8f15-707eaeefba17?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # What could move the stock this month * **CNSC hearing(s) in October 2025** on federal approvals for Phoenix ISR – any positive read-through or decision timing updates are potential catalysts. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-reports-financial-and-operational-results-122829/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # Key risks * **Permitting & timing risk** (federal approvals still pending). [Denison Mines Corp.](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-reports-financial-and-operational-results-122829/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Financing/capex** to build Phoenix once permits arrive. * **Uranium price sensitivity** (developer without current large-scale production). * **Execution** on first-of-its-kind **ISR uranium mine in Canada**.

Wheream_I

You’re not really misunderstanding but we are talking past each other. Of course different dividend stocks in different industries have different risk profiles, and thus they have different discount rates assigned to the NPV of their future cash flows. I’m saying that with dividend stocks you aren’t really getting a market advantage, because the risk is calculated and highly correlated, it’s all tied to the risk free rate, and the stock prices reflect all of this and don’t really beat the risk free rate in the long term unless you think the discount rate assigned to the dividend stock is incorrect. Growth stocks are inherently higher risk higher reward because the high-low spread of assigned risk is greater, and you can gamble on a few winners when growth calculations are incorrect on the downside.

Wheream_I

Agreed. The issue with dividend stocks is that they are literally mathematically figured out and their stock prices reflect it. The only premium you get on them vs the risk free rate is the discount rate assigned to the stock, as their valuation is literally just the NPV of all future cash flows.

E__anon

And the Northisle Copper and gold is the largest copper deposit that isn’t currently owned by a major mining company. They boast an NPV of 2 billion with gold at 2150 per oz and copper at 4.20/lb. Needless to say gold and copper are trading much higher than that. This one is a longer play than golden cross but is looking like it’s going to be a 15 billion dollar district. They just announced more drilling and they’re fully funded with 40 mil in the bank.

Zipski577

No it isn’t😂 and it’s not just revenue that gets impacted. And the previous trading price implied that $60m would GROW… substantially Not totally evaporate 😂 the NPV of that just went to 0 when it was previously a sizable piece of the valuation. Ads revenue can’t grow forever.. they needed the AI data revenue to become a driver for growth. Thats out the window now

Zipski577

Yes. People don’t understand discounted cash flow and NPV here lol

FastFwdFrank

Stole this from someone on X. Not exactly what you’re looking for but it is extremely thorough: “You are an equity research analyst. Produce a rigorous, source-backed investment memo on {Company} [{Ticker}] with a clear Buy, Hold, or Sell call. Rules for research and writing 1) Use only verifiable, recent sources. Prioritize official filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, regulatory documents, reputable industry data, and high quality media. Cite every non-obvious fact with a link and date. 2) Separate facts from interpretation. Tag each paragraph as Fact, Analysis, or Inference. 3) Use precise dates. Avoid vague time references. 4) Quantify claims. Show math for derived metrics. Use tables where helpful. 5) Note uncertainty. Call out missing data and state assumptions. Deliverables A) Executive summary (8 to 12 bullets): snapshot, thesis, rating, price targets and time frames, key drivers, key risks, near-term catalysts, and what would change the call. B) Full memo with sections 1 through 15 below. C) Appendix: source list with links and dates, data tables, and a simple operating model. 1) Thesis framing (purpose: define what must be true to create value) - State the core investment question in one sentence. - List 3 to 5 thesis pillars that would make the stock attractive. - List disconfirming evidence to test that could break the thesis. 2) Market structure and size (purpose: size the prize and trajectory) - Quantify TAM, SAM, SOM. Segment by product line, customer size, industry, and geography. - Identify growth drivers: regulation, replacement cycles, macro activity, technology adoption. - Estimate current penetration and runway. Compare against peer adoption curves. 3) Customer segments and jobs to be done (purpose: map who buys and why) - Describe mix by size band and industry. Identify buyer roles and budget owners. - Detail core workflows and pain points. Explain mission criticality. - Assess switching costs and vendor lock-in by segment. 4) Product and roadmap (purpose: evaluate product-market fit and durability) - Summarize core modules and adjacent products. Call out differentiators. - Compare depth vs breadth versus best point solutions. - Explain implementation time, integrations, configurability, and typical time to value. - Provide quality and reliability signals: uptime, incident history, mobile performance. - Roadmap credibility: stated milestones versus delivery track record. 5) Competitive landscape (purpose: position the company) - Identify direct and indirect competitors by segment and size. - Compare pricing, packaging, and feature gaps. Include switching friction and contract terms. - Summarize win or loss reasons from reviews, case studies, and disclosed data. 6) Go-to-market and distribution (purpose: test scalability of new-logo engine) - Break down demand sources: inbound, outbound, partner referrals, marketplaces. - Sales productivity: ramp, quota attainment, conversion rates where disclosed or inferred. - Role of channels and partnerships: integrations, OEMs, platforms. - Services and customer success model. Training and community as moat. 7) Retention and expansion (purpose: quantify durability of revenue) - Report gross and net dollar retention by cohort and segment if disclosed or estimable. - Explain logo churn drivers and timing. Provide a churn curve if possible. - Identify expansion vectors: seat growth, module attach, usage-based add-ons. - Discuss contract length, renewal mechanics, and price increase policies. - Include reference-call insights or credible review synthesis. 8) Monetization and embedded finance if applicable (purpose: understand usage economics) - Revenue streams and pricing model. For payments or fintech: share of customers active, GTV penetration, take rate by tender type, blended margin, cost stack, fraud exposure, and who holds credit risk. - Revenue recognition: gross vs net. Seasonality and cyclicality. - ARPU uplift from usage products. Payback on onboarding. 9) Unit economics and efficiency (purpose: test scalability with profitable growth) - CAC, payback period, magic number, LTV to CAC by segment if available or estimable. - Contribution margin by line: software vs usage vs services. - Cohort profitability and cash contribution over time. - Implementation and support cost over customer lifetime. 10) Financial profile (purpose: link operations to financial outcomes) - Revenue mix and growth by component. Gross margin by line. Operating leverage path. - Rule of 40 and efficiency trends. GAAP to cash flow bridge. - Leading indicators: billings, RPO, backlog. - SBC, dilution, and share count trajectory. - Liquidity, working capital needs, and path to FCF breakeven and target margin. 11) Moat and data advantage (purpose: assess defensibility) - Workflow depth and data lock-in. Network or ecosystem effects if present. - AI or analytics differentiation with measurable outcomes. - Integration footprint and practical switching costs. 12) Execution quality and organization (purpose: evaluate management and operating cadence) - Leadership track record and stability. Org design and succession. - Engineering velocity: release cadence, defect and incident rates where available. - Customer sentiment: CSAT, NPS, peer review sites, and community signals. 13) Risk inventory and mitigants (purpose: make downside explicit) - Macro, regulatory, competitive, operational, and concentration risks. - Payments, credit, or compliance risks if relevant. - Implementation complexity and time-to-value risks. - For each risk, propose leading indicators and mitigations. 14) Valuation framework (purpose: value with cross-checks) - Public comps table: growth, gross margin, operating margin, Rule of 40, EV to revenue, EV to gross profit. Normalize for any usage or payments reporting differences. - DCF with explicit drivers and sensitivity bands. - Cross-checks: cohort NPV math, S-curve adoption, unit economics to enterprise value sanity checks. 15) Scenarios, catalysts, and monitoring plan (purpose: set expectations and triggers) - 12 to 24 month bear, base, bull cases. Specify NRR, new logos, pricing or take rate, margins, SBC, and share count. Assign probabilities that sum to 100 percent. - Near-term catalysts: product launches, pricing changes, partnerships, market entries, M&A, regulatory outcomes. - Early warning indicators: churn spikes in small cohorts, backlog slippage, uptime incidents, pricing pushback. - What would change my mind: three positive and three negative triggers. Output format - Executive summary - Rating with price targets and time frames - Investment thesis and variant perception - Detailed sections 1 through 15 - Tables and charts embedded - Source list with links and dates - Appendix with model assumptions and calculations Quality bar - No generic claims. Back important statements with numbers and citations. - Label any speculation as Inference. - Be concise and structured. Prefer bullets and tables.

Sea_Vehicle984

Made the news recently on their permit. Local eco nutbars are appealing EAO decision, but the case is super weak and may be dismissed outright. Read the decision document as the EAO addressed every possible angle, and the courts give a lot of discretion to them. The Friends of Davie vs. EAO precedent dismissed their case, and an overturn decision would affect every gravel pit in the province. Regardless, I have been advised that it has no bearing on the permit finalization underway, which is expected to wrap up in October. It's been 6 years in the making, so it's almost there. Permit unleashes a series of news releases as they can move forward after a couple of years on regulatory treadmill. A billion dollar asset trades at 4% NPV. Magnesium and silica with some nickel to boot. Should be a good trade and long-term hold. Tight float due to large insider ownership. Go WHY!

Vimes76

Not knocking the sentiment here, definitely caution advised. However doing a bit of reading myself, as Lithium is a commodity with a moving price, the NPV of the deposit is surely hard to determine.

Cut_Copies

it can only be worth as much as the NPV of the Lithium deposit in the ground. Its probability adjusted equity value probably exceeds that now... so tread with caution

Sovereign_Sentinel

Few reasons. Tariffs, trade wars, dollar devaluation. The US in particular imports 80-90% of its potash from Canada and has very little domestic production. The US is acquiring a 10% stake in LAC (lithium producer and poorly run at that) and the thought is what's the next investment they will make that we can front run? They recently declared potash as a critical mineral in August so its likely potash could be the US's next investment. I have a massive stake in MLPNF got in at .47 cents. They are targeting a sale of the company end of 2026 for NPV of 1.5 billion CAD or a premium. 5x from here. Taking dilution of shares into consideration im expecting a minimum share price of $7. Currently $2.35.

BackgammonFella

That pushes my TSLA short to 21% of NPV of my brokerage. Stings a bit, but I am not covering. Reality will start to matter at some point.

Narrow_Chance7639

It's easy to get caught up in the hype of a big partnership, but the NPV is the real question. It's probably more about the access to Intel's supply chain and engineering talent than a direct financial return.

keetboy

This is also a fair assessment. There is some upside to doing this. I’m holding for long just bc I believe in Nvidia only. I’m just not sure how much NPV intel brings to the table.

MaximinusRats

Your first set of arguments justifies a large, perhaps overweight, position in US equities. Your second set of arguments acknowledges that the first set of arguments might be wrong and justfies hedging your bet on the US by investing at least part of your assets in foreign equities. IIRC, the US market is \~30 per cent of the global total. Putting 15 per cent of your equity portfolio into foreign assets would mean aggressively overwighting the US. On another issue: you mention "sovereign debt issues" in connection with non-US markets, but the US government on current policy is seriously insolvent in NPV terms, so I don't think it's an issue that would weigh heavily one way or another on the US vs foreign issue. It might be important in deciding how mcuh you want to allocate to alternative assets.

Jeff__Skilling

> Buybacks themselves don’t mean much, They reduce a firms cost of capital? If the ROIC I make on excess free cash flow by utilizing it for capex is less than the reduction in the cost of capital I'd receive by buying back shares or paying down debt, why ***wouldn't*** I choose the latter? Doing otherwise would be a negative NPV scenario....

LigmaLlama0

You are conflating ROI or NPV with GDP, which are not the same. The usefulness of a dollar invested into capital is completely separate from GDP as a figure. Research has shown that increases in GDP improve quality of life for a country.

djs383

Still a case of TINA. When rf rate is so historically low, margin,NPV from projects or acquisitions make up the needed returns. As rf rate increases and inflation remains, those gains will be minimal albeit at a higher risk level. Rates have been far too low for too long now and a larger correction is needed for normal mechanics in my view

aytikvjo

1 - If liking movies a lot is their best qualification for running the company, i have concerns. 2 - Sounds like a pretty competitive space. What analysis do you have to show that the market is mis-pricing their future earnings? 3 - ok so they spent a lot of money on some rights? What kind of rate of return are they going to get on that investment? All you've said is a bunch of marketing fluff - i see no analysis here - just words and narrative, no numbers or NPV calculations or projected scenarios. Stock is up 50% eh? Sounds like maybe the market has already priced in some part of an expected future over performance the company may have had. Too bad we don't have a time machine.

East-Description-243

…hmm apparently I don’t know how to create a post and my text isn’t showing. My theory is DJTs announcement that 2 billion in chips act funds, TMCs report of NPV of 23.6 billy and NOAA announcement that TMCs exploration licenses are in compliance will send shares higher. 

thisisjustascreename

This isn't even close, NPV of $300 a month for 25 years is like $56k. Sell the property and invest the 200k. Or else raise the rent you dirty capitalist.

CallMePyro

You’re crazy. Search, ads, and cloud alone justify the fair value. You’re saying the NPV of Deepmind, Waymo, YouTube, Isomorphic Labs, Verily, Chrome, and GSuite are ALL ZERO?

mistryman95

URU Metals - watch this over the next 6 months, 2.5m market cap, old 311mNPV, mining right imminent, EM survey end of August, expecting new NPV to be at least 500m, easily brought out by the Chinese given current US relations. A 50m buyout (which is cheap) would be a 20x

Tendie_Tube

1) Create a spreadsheet with a growth rate and formulas to calculate 10 years of earnings. E.g. growth rate 5%, Y1 earnings 100k, Y2 earnings = Y1 \* (1+growthrate)... and so on. 2) Decide upon a cost of capital, e.g. calculate a weighted average between what the company would have to pay to issue new debt and what the stock investors expect to earn (e.g. 12%). The weights are the % of assets that are equity and the % that are debt. 3) Use the NPV formula, with cost of capital as "rate", and the array containing 10 years of earnings as values. 4) Calculate a PE ratio by dividing Y1 earnings over the NPV. 5) Vary the earnings growth rate, and watch what happens to the PE ratio. With a cost of capital of 9%, I got the following PE ratios: 0% - 6.42 5% - 7.8 10% - 9.56 15% - 11.8 20% - 14.68

potsmokinsocialist

$TMC finally gets its day TMC Releases Two Economic Studies with Combined NPV of $23.6B and Declares World-First Nodule Reserves https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tmc-releases-two-economic-studies-110000607.html Trading at $6.5, PT $8.18 and ATH $8.63

potsmokinsocialist

$TMC finally gets its day TMC Releases Two Economic Studies with Combined NPV of $23.6B and Declares World-First Nodule Reserves https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tmc-releases-two-economic-studies-110000607.html Trading at $6.5, PT $8.18. Oh, and Steve the minerals guy got calls.

potsmokinsocialist

$TMC finally gets its day TMC Releases Two Economic Studies with Combined NPV of $23.6B and Declares World-First Nodule Reserves https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tmc-releases-two-economic-studies-110000607.html Trading at $6.5, PT $8.15. Oh, and Steve the mineral guy got calls

BingBongersonOttawa

So many projects in the global uranium pipeline; makes me wonder which will sink and which will float. I like Denison a lot. I also like NexGen and Deep Yellow  and Aura Energy. I like the buyout prospects for Denison given its total size and potebtial synergies for Cameco. Phoenix NPV to CAPEX of 3.7:1 is wild and OPEX is amazingly low; even if they dont get bought out it'll print cash. This project will go as soon as it is permitted.

mistryman95

Honestly I’m still surprised more people aren’t talking about this URU owns the majority of the Zeb Nickel Project in South Africa. This is a nickel and platinum group elements project that already had a 317 million dollar NPV over ten years ago. That was before higher grade zones were found and before any PGEs or deeper sulphide targets were included. Updated estimates now put this closer to 500 million dollars yet URU’s market cap is still just around 2.7 million pounds That gap is insane Environmental approval is already done. The mining right is expected soon. They’ve just announced a high spec EM survey using the same tech that helped map out major discoveries like Platreef. If this survey confirms sulphide rich zones like they’re expecting then things could get very interesting Here’s why I’m holding URU has a really tight float with only around 20 million shares tradable Any decent news could trigger a rerate There are hints of buyout interest in the background Nickel and PGEs are critical for batteries and EV supply chains This is one of the few juniors with permitting mostly de risked It’s also had historic drilling and there’s more coming soon This is still totally under the radar. No hype no promotion. But it’s lined up with all the right pieces If we get strong EM results or the mining permit lands this year I don’t think it stays below 10p for long. And if the maiden resource shows real size you can build a case for 20 to 30p and beyond. Possibly a lot more with a buyout Obviously not financial advice. Just what I’m seeing

mistryman95

URU METALS (URU.L) — The AIM Junior Hiding a Potentially Major Nickel-PGE Discovery For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now.

mistryman95

URU METALS (URU.L) — The AIM Junior Hiding a Potentially Major Nickel-PGE Discovery For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now.

mistryman95

For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now. #URU #Nickel #PGEs #AIM #Mining #JuniorMiners #ZebNickel #CriticalMetals

mistryman95

For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now. #URU #Nickel #PGEs #AIM #Mining #JuniorMiners #ZebNickel #CriticalMetals

mistryman95

For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now. #URU #Nickel #PGEs #AIM #Mining #JuniorMiners #ZebNickel #CriticalMetals

mistryman95

For those following the mining space, URU Metals might be one of the most overlooked asymmetric opportunities currently trading on AIM. Here’s why I’ve taken a position — and why I think the next few months could finally unlock value. ⸻ The Basics URU is the majority owner (74.82%) of Zeb Nickel, a South African nickel-PGE exploration company listed in Canada. Their flagship Zeb Project sits in the Limpopo Belt — right next to Ivanhoe’s massive Platreef discovery. This is a district that has already proven it can host world-class deposits. Despite an historic NPV of $317m based only on low-grade disseminated nickel (with no PGEs and no sulphides included), URU’s market cap is sitting around just £1.8 million. That’s with a tiny float — fewer than 10 million shares likely in public hands. ⸻ Key Catalysts Coming Soon • SpectremPlus EM survey has just begun — this is cutting-edge tech that can identify high-conductivity sulphide targets to depths of 700m+. Results are expected within weeks, and the company will use this data to refine its 3D model. • A maiden resource estimate is expected shortly after that. This will be the first time the company defines its total inferred and indicated resources, now that higher-grade sulphides and PGE mineralisation have been confirmed in Zones 2 and 3. • The mining right is now likely imminent. Environmental Authorisation was granted almost a year ago, and typically the mining permit follows within 9–12 months in South Africa. Once this drops, the project becomes significantly more valuable overnight. • There are persistent rumours of external interest — including speculation about strategic players (possibly even from China or regional investors) looking at this project as one of the few near-development sulphide-rich nickel assets left in the region. ⸻ Why This Could Rerate Fast The combination of tight float, strong upcoming newsflow, and significant resource potential could drive a major rerate. URU has already proven it can hit high-grade intercepts — now it’s about confirming the scale. Even modest value being attached to Zeb would move the share price several multiples from current levels. A buyout or JV could happen once the mining right and resource are locked in. ⸻ Risk Perspective The major early-stage risks are mostly behind. Environmental approval is secured, the geological model is validated, and capital has been raised to fund exploration. Yes, there’s still a convertible loan in the background — but it hasn’t been triggered, and the company hasn’t needed to dilute heavily. Most of the real “de-risking” is now in the hands of the drill bit and the EM survey. The stock is quiet now, but history shows that these plays often move fast and violently on hard news. ⸻ Conclusion If you’re looking for a high-upside junior in the nickel/PGE space — with real near-term catalysts and a massive disconnect between market cap and asset value — URU Metals is worth watching very closely over the next quarter. Just my view — not financial advice — but I think this is one of the best asymmetric setups on AIM right now. #URU #Nickel #PGEs #AIM #Mining #JuniorMiners #ZebNickel #CriticalMetals

stonkmc

You're just extending your time to make a full salary. If you're in school for 6 years that should equate to a masters. It's all about opportunity cost and net present value. NPV delayed 2 years = $-x.x lost money

Specific-Ad-6687

What was the WACC you used to calculate NPV?

AdBackground7796

GPHOF is anchored by an April 23, 2025, Bankable Feasibility Study that assigns the integrated Alaska‑mine‑plus‑Ohio‑anode project a post‑tax NPV of US$5.0 billion and a 27 % IRR at an 8 % discount rate, with payback in 7.5 years over a 20‑year life. The planned mine will process 10,000 t/day and deliver an average of 175,000 dry‑metric‑tonnes of graphite concentrate annually, positioning GPHOF as the largest future US source of battery‑grade feedstock. Against a current enterprise value of roughly US$0.10 billion, the NPV‑to‑EV leverage for GPHOF is about 50 ×, the widest in the North‑American critical‑minerals peer set. A US$37.5 million Department of Defense Title III grant funded 75 % of study costs and accelerated completion by 15 months, underscoring that federal backing for GPHOF is tangible rather than aspirational. Regulatory visibility improved when the project entered the FAST‑41 program in June 2025. The program requires the US Army Corps to publish a full federal review timetable no later than August 12, 2025, curbing the timeline uncertainty that typically discounts developers like GPHOF. Financing prospects brightened after the U.S. Export‑Import Bank issued a non‑binding LOI for up to US$325 million with a potential 15‑year tenor under its “Make More in America” initiative, covering roughly one‑fifth of the Ohio anode facility’s initial cap‑ex. Study economics rest on a US $7,500/t anode‑graphite price; every US $500/t swing shifts NPV by about US $0.9 billion, exposing GPHOF to Chinese export policy and EV‑demand cycles. Management projects US $43 billion in cumulative revenue and more than US $10 billion in after‑tax free cash flow, suggesting GPHOF can self‑fund later expansion phases without perpetual equity dilution. Execution risks include securing the remaining ≈US$1 billion of cap‑ex if EXIM terms fall short, possible Alaska environmental litigation that could delay the EIS, and the need to finalize binding offtakes before the 2028 first‑production target. Even after hair‑cutting the model for a one‑year schedule slip and a 15 % graphite‑price decline, the NPV stands near US$3.2 billion—still more than 30 × current EV—indicating the market is either over‑discounting GPHOF’s funding and permitting risk or undervaluing the premium for domestically sourced graphite anode material.

AdBackground7796

GPHOF is anchored by an April 23, 2025, Bankable Feasibility Study that assigns the integrated Alaska‑mine‑plus‑Ohio‑anode project a post‑tax NPV of US$5.0 billion and a 27 % IRR at an 8 % discount rate, with payback in 7.5 years over a 20‑year life. The planned mine will process 10,000 t/day and deliver an average of 175,000 dry‑metric‑tonnes of graphite concentrate annually, positioning GPHOF as the largest future US source of battery‑grade feedstock. Against a current enterprise value of roughly US$0.10 billion, the NPV‑to‑EV leverage for GPHOF is about 50 ×, the widest in the North‑American critical‑minerals peer set. A US$37.5 million Department of Defense Title III grant funded 75 % of study costs and accelerated completion by 15 months, underscoring that federal backing for GPHOF is tangible rather than aspirational. Regulatory visibility improved when the project entered the FAST‑41 program in June 2025. The program requires the US Army Corps to publish a full federal review timetable no later than August 12, 2025, curbing the timeline uncertainty that typically discounts developers like GPHOF. Financing prospects brightened after the U.S. Export‑Import Bank issued a non‑binding LOI for up to US$325 million with a potential 15‑year tenor under its “Make More in America” initiative, covering roughly one‑fifth of the Ohio anode facility’s initial cap‑ex. Study economics rest on a US $7,500/t anode‑graphite price; every US $500/t swing shifts NPV by about US $0.9 billion, exposing GPHOF to Chinese export policy and EV‑demand cycles. Management projects US $43 billion in cumulative revenue and more than US $10 billion in after‑tax free cash flow, suggesting GPHOF can self‑fund later expansion phases without perpetual equity dilution. Execution risks include securing the remaining ≈US$1 billion of cap‑ex if EXIM terms fall short, possible Alaska environmental litigation that could delay the EIS, and the need to finalize binding offtakes before the 2028 first‑production target. Even after hair‑cutting the model for a one‑year schedule slip and a 15 % graphite‑price decline, the stress‑tested NPV stands near US$3.2 billion—still more than 30 × current EV—indicating the market is either over‑discounting GPHOF’s funding and permitting risk or undervaluing the premium for domestically sourced graphite anode material.

Organic_Morning_5051

If you intend to run a CC strategy over a long period of time you should just buy it now. The NPV of the cashflow will outpace and price difference you experience in the short-term.

RAC-City-Mayor

I actually disagree. You can do a simple back of the envelope Risk adjusted NPV to see that it’s likely still quite undervalued

Difficult-Quarter-48

I honestly am not too on top of it. I was sold at the exim loan + Paulson. My understanding is the exim loan probably won't be approved til next year though? Either way the NPV of the mine would seem to cap gains at about a 2x from here unless gold keeps going up which it could. I still really like the stock. To me it's a really high probability 1.5-2x. I'm a bit spoiled by mp though now. MP has much better options I've so I had a pretty crazy gain on that position. PPTA options are terrible so the degen in me is disappointed. My PPTA position is almost entirely shares

Difficult-Quarter-48

I really like PPTA but I don't see any near term catalysts for it and it's already running a bit hot so not sure this is the best entry. My thesis: 1. Company is first and foremost a gold mine. I think gold is likely to continue to run over the next 1-2 years especially after rates come down when Powell is gone. Rate cuts, lack of optimism on deficit, and geopolitical instability are all tailwinds for gold. 2. The mine would be I believe the only antimony producing mine in the US and has capacity to produce I believe 35% of the US antimony demand. This gives the stock a national security narrative ala MP. In reality, the revenues from antimony would be relatively small, but it gives the US gov a reason to support the company. 3. John Paulson is a massive shareholder in the company and very actively involved in management. This guy is deeply tied to the trump admin. Given the grift angle and antimony providing a reason to support the mine, this is a no brainer grift play to me. The company has applied for a 1.8 billion dollar exim loan. I think this loan is a guarantee given the political environment, and I think the mine may get fast tracked in any ways possible. All that being said there is a limit to how much this can run based on the NPV of the mine. Im looking for about a 1.5-2x within the next 1-2 years. Not an explosive play but I have high conviction in the stock. If gold runs, the gain could be lsrger

E__anon

Price target is correlated to de-risking and the NPV the more de risking and the larger the NPV the higher the market cap. Eventually the market will realize a 1:1 market cap to NPV with a junior mine assuming all de-risking has taken place. They have an official NPV of 2 billion CAD and the market cap is at 300 CAD right now. Major upside potential. I’m personally holding and will not sell a single share until we’re at $5 a share US at which I will take some profit but plan on holding until $20+ because of how much they’re worth once the de-risking is over.

RAC-City-Mayor

I completely agree with the TAM comments. The other piece is the level of risk. I'd say IXHL is fairly de-risked as it's already shown to work in humans with OSA. The market cap is what like $50M? I think still quite a lot of room for upside. Even a risk adjusted NPV of just the OSA program is probably multiples of the current share price? Just my opinion.

E__anon

They look decent…. They just got a partnership with Apple it looks like too for their magnets which is huge! Check out $NTCPF as well. 7 million oz of gold 3.1 billion pounds of copper already discovered NPV at $5 billion (CAD) Still in exploration phase. Boasting to be the largest copper and gold mine on the planet “that’s not currently owned by a major”

E__anon

NTCPF is copper and gold…. 3.1 billion lbs of copper already discovered 7 million oz of gold A ton of Infrastructure already in place from an old BHP mine that used to be near by NPV is $5 billion (CAD) with gold at $2900 and copper at $4.60 What’s $AVL’s PEA/NPV looking like? Are they still exploring? When do they plan to begin production? How committed is the current CEO to zero dilution? Are they funded? How much mineral do they currently have and what spot prices are they using?

RAC-City-Mayor

Not sure why people are talking about IXHL as though it's not the beginning of the beginning of a run. This run up is nothing compared to the likely pop that could arise from strong Phase 2 results. Market cap is abysmal for the market size. The read out to me is fairly de-risked, given we already have IN HUMAN data of the drug, from the Australian Phase 2 in 2022. So basically, there's a good chance it will work. I ran an EXTREMELY conservative rNPV aided by chat GPT. Assuming: \-25 million adults with OSA, \-1% penetration rate, \-$1000 per patient per year, \-5 years to launch, and a 10 year post launch cash flow ...chat GPT is spitting out a \~$100m risk adjusted NPV. A 3% penetration rate is a \~$300M market cap. This is JUST for IHL-42x, and completely ignores the other irons in the fire

E__anon

Yeah that’s Canadian so it’s like $1.46 billion US. It’s trading for around 86¢ USD to we can see a pop to $5.65 based on an outdate PEA with old spot prices for copper and gold. Here’s the math on the $5.65 share price 258 mil outstanding shares, 5.65 x 258 mil = $1.46 billion. Junior mines achieve their market cap equal to their NPV in relation to how derisked the project becomes. It eventually goes to a 1:1 ratio of NPV to market cap when the project begins production. It’s trading at a huge discount right now in relation to low projections of the NPV. This is t a get rich tomorrow company… but a sure pick for some appreciation over time.

RonMexico16

Yeah…I’m still adding more on dips like this one. I have no fundamental valuation based on any NPV of future earnings for them. I just think their balance sheet is strong enough, cash flows are good enough, and they’re following the right strategy. Who knows…maybe they’ll get bought out at some point for all of their data and IP.

MajorGlad8546

Rare earth metals. CRML (moving now) and NB (waiting on news). Both are large mines pre-production. Both are pending news on potential financing from the U.S. and other governments due to the national security issues with China having a monopoly on those elements. These finance deals (and potential grants) would eliminate the necessity for share dilution. Both are extremely low float. Using rules of thumb for mine valuations based on their NPV and company health, both *could* have peak valuations of 8x current price. Generally thought to have 2x-4x potential after news of financing.

sassydaisies

Big run up within the last month! Why didn’t you tell us back in April?? 😂 I think a lot of the Junior mines are lagging behind in terms of unrealized value… but this one seems extremely undervalued right now. It’s trading at less that a .035x of its NPV to Market cap… it should at least be a .1x if not a .2-.3x You might be on to something here….

E__anon

How is $NTCPF still not being talked about? Northisle Copper and Gold. Junior mining company on Vancouver island. All the infrastructure there already. $5 billion NPV with gold at $2900 an oz It’s gunna a ton of room for market cap expansion.

lalich

👆 it’s total gas lighting to assume the people commuting 1hr will see a positive NPV from this … anyway fuck em ♾️🏴‍☠️🤙

Dr-Jim-Richolds

$184 million is nowhere near enough to build a mine, man. You gotta look at CAPEX, IRR, WACC, construction time, ramp period.... So many things that go into giving you a ballpark, and based on their PEA, "Based on a spot gold price of $2,900/oz, the Project's undiscounted after-tax cash flows(2)(3) total $902 million with an after-tax NPV(2)(3) of $581 million..."

Jaded-Influence6184

FYI using current numbers in their financing reports, projected gold reserves mean a NPV share price should be in the range of 2.7 to 3.6 times current price. However that is based on 4.8 million ounces of gold on site. In fact, there are other areas of the site where preliminary drilling indicates they have at least 7 million ounces, so shares will be worth considerably more (maybe upwards of 5 times). The company will obtain new exploratory drilling permits for later this year to do complete site mapping in order to open up new mines to retrieve those deposits, whether open pit or underground.

soymilkmolasses

LSANF (an OTC stock on the American side) is priced low right now. Possibly a good buy and hold. Wealthy friends of ours own a lot of it, and say that is going to be worth much more due to underlying assets. The company has done initial permit work, and the town is in cooperation. https://losandescopper.com/projects/overview/ Via ChatGPT Bottom Line • If Los Andes sold Vizcachitas today at fair value, LSANF shares could theoretically jump to about $19.80 USD/share. • If the project is de-risked and sells later, shares could be worth $67.80 USD/share or more. • Current price (~$4.50) reflects high risk and long timeline to realize that value. 1. Shares Outstanding • Roughly 29.5 million shares outstanding (both LA.V and LSANF represent the same underlying stock). ⸻ 2. Estimated Sale Value if Sold Now • Current realistic sale price range: around $600 million to $1 billion CAD (because project is early stage, permitting risk, etc.). • Using an average: $800 million CAD sale value. Convert CAD to USD (assuming 0.73 USD/CAD): • $800 million CAD × 0.73 = $584 million USD ⸻ Per Share Value if Sold Now: \frac{\$584,000,000}{29,500,000 \text{ shares}} \approx \$19.80 \text{ USD/share} ⸻ 3. Estimated Sale Value if Sold Later • After permitting & de-risking, with copper prices rising, market estimates NPV around $2.77 billion USD (or higher if copper prices climb). Let’s say the project sells for $2 billion USD conservatively (lower than NPV due to capex risks but higher than now). ⸻ Per Share Value if Sold Later: \frac{\$2,000,000,000}{29,500,000 \text{ shares}} \approx \$67.80 \text{ USD/share}

Dr-Jim-Richolds

Which REEs do they have, and grades with commodity breakdown? What's the reserve, resource, annual production? CAPEX needed? Ramp up time? Construction time? Off take agreements? Who will process? Will they produce REO, concentrate, or separate the metals? Why did they use NPV8? What WACC are we looking at? If you're going to do a ChatGPT dive, you should have some answers that investors actually would ask, not just generic high level bullet points

fallingknife2

These bonds have a 7 year term and 0 coupon, so at current 7 year treasury yields, that's an implied value of 0.76 on the dollar. So in terms of NPV we're talking a $480 million capital gain for GME.

taylor_cfc

I mean, the company does have the option to repay the full amount of cash in 2032, it doesnt have to be shares. So 1.75 billion at 0% for 7 years where inflation will eat away at the principle seems like a really good NPV deal to me.

Altruistic-Necessary

There is a formula that tells you exactly what the price of any contract that generates cash (like a stock) should be. See [NPV](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_present_value). The problem is that, according to this formula, current prices depend on future cash flows and discount rates. That's why different market participants will price the same stock differently. Regarding metrics and backtesting: What I can say without getting too technical is that statistics don't work well in financial markets due to how badly behaved distributions are. The past does not give you lots of info about the future.