NPV

PancakeConnoisseur

Twenty years untouched will have to be spy or an index fund. However this is missing the benefit of a tax free account. You can use one of many online free NPV calculators to see how much you would have.

Former_Island_4730

Right. And Rocket Lab is probably also valued way above an NPV of future earnings. Retail doesn’t actually care about future net income…it gambles on stories.

Odd_Jobs_Hat

Ballpark correct even though NPV should be 1.5 and discount rate / WACC is likely higher than 8% because of current equity returns increasing cost of equity into double digits. Should be valued at ~20x EBITDA which is roughly accurate for a large tech company. Could argue closer to 30x (imputing lower annual profit / EBITDA) given companies like insurance co bragging AI tech to justify ~20-25x multiples vs this, an actually differentiated actual tech company. Basically 1/20th to 1/30th of market cap (technically should be enterprise value but close enough) in real cash profit per year.

ragnaroksunset

This is hyper napkin math but let's say you're in SpaceX with a 25-year horizon and an 8% discount rate. To have an NPV of $1T, you have to be expecting it to average almost $95 billion **profit** per year for those 25 years. Again, this is not *the correct* math to use (among other things I'm ignoring enterprise value, but we don't typically envision selling off assets before we exit a position either), but it is good enough to help you think about how SpaceX is being valued. For comparison I think it's inching toward $10 billion in profit so *basically* this valuation expects it to 10X without losing margin, and soon.

dasnoob

If I'm remember my freshman finance course right stocks are supposed to be based around the future cash flows of a company. The annual cash flow required for the NPV in perpetuity to be 1.5T using the current 20-year bond rate is \~77 billion in positive cash flow annually which is pretty monstrous. Obviously that isn't how stocks are actually priced. But in classic finance theory that is pretty much it.

jffadvisors

The academic answer they teach you in graduate school: What gives a share of stock value? Net Present Value of all future cash flows. What are your future cash flows? Dividends and possibly the company being bought for cash. That’s it. Getting cash when you sell the stock? That is just another person buying the right to the future cash flows from you. Stock goes up in price? The market’s expectation of the NPV of future cash flows went up. In the short run dividend stocks get a boost in their value because getting paid every quarter NOW is less risky than waiting to get paid years down the road. Why I do it? I look for quality companies with stable financials and a decent economic moat that pay 4% or more…then I reinvest the dividends so over the years, I accumulate more and more shares.

Powerful-Load-4684

Not when it’s being measured in two entirely different ways lmao. GDP is a single year, market cap is the NPV of all future years

ben13215

Jadestone Energy. Operate 6 crude wells and 2 nat gas powerstations across indonesia and australia (hardest hit by hormuz). 220mil cap, 200mil debt and 100-150mil op cashflow/year with oil around 80 dollars, anything extra is upside. NPV10 around 700mil so around 2x under par atm. Significant decomissioning liability cause they operate some late life assets (around 600mil npv), but actual cash expense should only start around mid 2030s.

CapablePiglet1044

It doesn't matter how incredible the technology is or how futuristic it is or how sexy it is, you work out the NPV by discounting future cash flows with a discount rate to get fair value. There is no industry, no matter how cool the technology, that can just a valuation of 200 times sales.

Numerous-Bet-4847

net worth and retirement savings are two different and separate things. I have $2M in retirement savings, which is cash and investments with my FA. My net worth is twice that, but I don't count that as retirement, nor do I count the NPV of my wife's future pension or the NPV of future Social Security. That said, my Financial Planner has that all available in my overall analysis should I want to count it.

Personal_Ad1143

39. $78k equities, $178k rental equity, $167k pension NPV. It’s an oddball mix. A lot of stocks were liquidated to buy a forever home in 2021, which has another $218k in equity but that’s not for retirement.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

Pick a stock and show me the NPV calc that = market cap.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

> But a NPV of all future cash flows is how stocks are (in theory) valued. That's nice that you've paid attention in your Finance 101 course but practically speaking this isn't how stock valuation ever really plays out.

MutaliskGluon

Cash flow IS all that matters lol. In the short term market does dumb shit all the time. But a NPV of all future cash flows is how stocks are (in theory) valued. Theres a reason why for the entire markets history** high CapEx companies traded at lower PE than low capex companies, and its because of cash flows. **Entire markets history except for this clown ass market bubble

TrentKelp

I am talking $BUFF.V. This should be over $3.00 here comparing the NPV Thx

TrentKelp

I think this sell the news off the Buffalo Potash PEA sell off is a huge buying opportunity! PEA shows you a potential market valuation wich should be 5x to 10x higher from the $1.00 stock price! Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") and concurrent release of its maiden 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate [https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/buffalo-potash-announces-preliminary-economic-113000263.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/buffalo-potash-announces-preliminary-economic-113000263.html) PEA & Mineral Resource Estimate Highlights Total production of 1,000,000 tonnes per annum (TPA) of K62 granular-grade Muriate of Potash (MOP) and 125,000 TPA of K62 soluble grade MOP After-tax NPV(1)(8) of US$1.1B and IRR(1) of 30% US$639M initial CAPEX estimate, including US$128M in contingency Estimated US$55/t MOP OPEX (Table 4) Measured and indicated tonnage of 1,671.5 million metric tonnes at an average grade of 34.8% KCl, yielding 582 million tonnes of KCl Over 50 years of mine life at 1,125,000 TPA based on current resource estimate (Table 2)(2) The advancement of a Feasibility Study ("FS") for Disley East and Disley West (the "HLD Mines") will run concurrent with Initial Production Module ("IPM") construction, with FS completion representing the key decision gate for proceeding to construction of Disley East and Disley West(3) We should be above $2.00 not under $1.00 https://preview.redd.it/tdnyvcsemzxg1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bcfdb16a081616007381af979293d2d6718cb1b4

icantbeassedman

$NKTR base case NPV comes in at $155 providing a 80% return in two years time when both Phase 3 trials are expected to announce their readout. Realistically Nektar will either get bought out or it will go for higher valuation considering this model only uses x1 peak sales multiple and the AD market is expected to grow indirectly increasing peak sales.

icantbeassedman

$NKTR base case NPV comes in at $155 providing a 80% return in two years time when both Phase 3 trials are expected to announce their readout. Realistically Nektar will either get bought out or it will go for higher valuation considering this model only uses x1 peak sales multiple and the AD market is expected to grow indirectly increasing peak sales.

icantbeassedman

$NKTR base case NPV comes in at $155 providing a 80% return in two years time when both Phase 3 trials are expected to announce their readout. Realistically Nektar will either get bought out or it will go for higher valuation considering this model only uses x1 peak sales multiple and the AD market is expected to grow indirectly increasing peak sales. https://preview.redd.it/98eyeeg1fwxg1.png?width=460&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f21d3944a4f39e1ec382ea385df3912f0e67328

call_me_soup69

ATAI is developing BPL-003 which takre an hour for treatment. CMPS is developing COMP360 which takes 6-8 hours. ATAI also has stakes in several other companies and molecules I the same space. Right now CMPS market cap is 1.2b, ATAI 1.6b. CMPS already ran it's price up on the NPV news, ATAI did not get a voucher so still has significant room to run imho.

call_me_soup69

That's true, but CMPS ran up like 40% on the voucher news. ATAI has more molecules in the pipeline with significantly quicker acting effects. CMPS is also now facing direct competition from non-profit Osana Institute which also received an NPV for psilocybin. FWIW I love CMPS and am loading up on them as well.

SkepticalInvestor21

This is solid fundamental analysis - refreshing to see actual math instead of vibes-based TSLA takes. Your DCF framework is reasonable, but I'd flag a few assumptions worth stress-testing: 1. **FSD/autonomy TAM**: The revenue projections here depend heavily on regulatory approval timelines that have slipped repeatedly. Every year of delay compresses the NPV significantly. 2. **Margin trajectory**: The price cuts to defend market share have structurally compressed auto margins. Even if volume recovers, the blended margin profile looks different than 2022-era models assumed. 3. **Energy storage (Megapack)**: This is the most underappreciated segment and your model might actually be conservative here. Utility-scale storage demand is accelerating faster than analysts expected. 4. **Brand erosion**: Harder to quantify, but Musk's political positioning has demonstrably hurt demand in key European markets. This is a real variable that most DCF models treat as zero. $190 as fair value is defensible. The question is whether you think current price reflects more pessimism than your base case or is still priced for perfection.

TarquinusSuperbus000

>NPV is a function of future cash flows, so literally any geopolitical even can be "adequately captured" as long as you can estimate its impact on future cash flows, yes. Yes, as long as you can estimate the impact on future cash flows, but it is a VERY bold to assume you can estimate this impact at all. How do you make that estimate when you don't know what targets get hit, how long the war lasts, what kind of escalation takes place? You can't. NPV is great for micro level analysis of stocks, but I think you are asking too much of it if you think it'll price a war for you.

garden_speech

> So you think unprecedented geopolitical conflict, the realignment of global alliances and trade flows, and macroeconomic regime change can be adequately captured in an NPV calculation? Why do you ask this like it's supposed to be inconceivable? NPV is a function of future cash flows, so literally any geopolitical even can be "adequately captured" as long as you can estimate its impact on future cash flows, yes. > Also, we're talking about the broader market, not just oil cos. The argument is even stronger for the broader market.

TarquinusSuperbus000

So you think unprecedented geopolitical conflict, the realignment of global alliances and trade flows, and macroeconomic regime change can be adequately captured in an NPV calculation? Also, we're talking about the broader market, not just oil cos. Anyone can model how an oil co performs based on oil price assumptions, that isn't what me and the other poster were talking about as far as I can tell.

TrentKelp

New Fertilizer Potash miner with tech patent can move 1200%. BUFF.V Buffalo Potash Corp. is a NEW publicly- traded company that is advancing a new, patented Horizontal Line-Drive (HLD) technology for potash solution mining. This technology leverages mature oil and gas drilling techniques to enable modular, capital-efficient, and lower-impact potash production in Saskatchewan, Canada. $BUFF.V OTC $BLPTF let’s talk that 1000% plus possible returns! Huge potential MULTI BAGGER potential! In a "best-case scenario" for Buffalo Potash (BUFF), the stock would likely transition from a junior explorer to a validated technology play and eventually a takeout target. Given the current trading price of roughly $0.46 or $.65 Canadian, (April 2026), here is the trajectory if "everything works": Phase 1: The PEA Re-Rating (Q2 2026) Target: $1.25 – $2.00+ The first major "best-case" catalyst is the release of the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA). •The "Work": If the PEA shows a massive Net Present Value (NPV)—for example, $800M+—and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) above 30%, the market will "re-rate" the stock. •Valuation Shift: Juniors often trade at 15–20% of their NPV. A $100M+ market cap at this stage would easily triple the current share price. Phase 2: Technical Proof of Concept (Late 2026 – 2027) Target: $3.50 – $5.50+ The real blue-sky potential lies in their Horizontal Line Drive (HLD) technology. •The "Work": If Buffalo successfully completes a second capital raise (targeting C$20–30M) and builds their "Showcase" module, proving they can produce potash at a lower cost than traditional mines, they stop being just a "hole in the ground" and start being a "disruptor." •. The "Standard Lithium" Comparison: This is where the appointment of Jeff Barber is key. Standard Lithium followed a similar path, moving from a sub-$1 stock to over $12.00 at its peak as its extraction tech was validated. If Buffalo proves its modular strategy works, a valuation closer to a "tech-resource hybrid" (roughly $500M–$1B market cap) becomes the best-case target. Phase 3: The "Acquisition" Exit (2027 – 2028) Target: $7.00 – $10.00+ The ultimate best-case for shareholders in Saskatchewan potash is an acquisition by a major producer like Nutrien, Mosaic, or K+S. •The "Work": As global demand for fertilizer grows and major players look to replace aging assets with more "ESG-friendly" (lower impact) solution mining, Buffalo’s 23,000 acres become highly valuable. https://preview.redd.it/zl96siiu2otg1.jpeg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa8045c721e00b747d01b993f029f300695a9404

kmsmyself12

TMC, we are 11 months away from permitting and if you factor the long term NPV value into the stock it ultimately should rerate to $50 a share.

x7_omega

All UAE is one big short for the following reason. Unlike Qatar and Oman, which want to stay out of this war, Saudi, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait want to win - USA invasion and the rest of it. That makes them combatants, unlike Qatar and Oman which are victims or hostages of this war. Combatants get fired upon, and at the level that Iran is getting fired upon, UAE will physically not survive this war - in such a course of events, there will be no UAE left, just sand-covered ruins and lambos. That means a total loss of NPV, until whoever that might be recolonises the rolling dunes in the future.

Crazy_Donkies

LOL. As if diagnosing fucking anything helps with finance.  If I have a lump on my neck I'll ask, if I need a NPV on a strategy I'm not fucking asking you.  

Low_Sheepherder7990

Still only trading at 33% of their current NPV. Could triple and still be a value buy.

Low_Sheepherder7990

The fun part to me is fundamentally they have an NPV of $95M and even after this run up is trading at a market cap of $35M

HAL-_-9001

> Tungsten prices start falling (unlikely, and tied to China) Agree with your points but regarding the price of Tungsten there is a possibility of a reversion. Talks between China and America recommence in a weeks time & Trump is in China EOM. Talks there could be multiple visits this year alone. You'd assume the US would be looking to get supply back online considering they have zero production. That being said, if you were China, it's perfect for them to hinder their department of wars capabilities & strengthen their case when they take Taiwan. Regardless, any price correction, still makes a compelling NPV on most of these mines. Long EQR. Currently musing over Tungsten West but likely I buy in.

No-Block-2095

You don’t “earn” 8% / year by delaying. You get the same actuarially. You ll die at same age but if you start later, the payments are more concentrated; starting earlier, the same NPV is spread or diluted over more years. Plus, - what do you live on between 62 and 70? Do you draw from savings or continue to work? When you die, your SS ends. Your widow gets the highest of yours or hers. That 's quite a reduction. If you draw from savings, they fon’t end with your death amd your widow can continue to use these savings.

Always_Curious_One2

RBRK —- $95 NPV based on very reasonable revenue growth rates, margin, expansion, and free cash flow production – discounted back at 10% RBRK absolutely Benefits from an agentic AI world. The number of attack surfaces is exploding with AI agents - and RBRK’s ability to deliver recovery & resilience to enterprises = means their value only rises. $95 may be conservative.

No_Razzmatazz854

• The CTO (Dr. Ho Joon Lee) actually has a PhD in Biochemistry from Cambridge University and founded GLAAM (the original LED glass company). He’s a materials scientist, not a makeup guy. • The comms role is relatively new and secondary — the key people driving the mining pivot are Garrabrant (Jaguar real-estate background), Patrick Imeson (25+ years in Montana mining), and the recently added Tom Brodmerkel (Naval Academy grad with mining/oil & gas executive experience). On the REE side — you’re 100% right. The NR only says “potential” with zero grades, mineralization style, or metallurgy details. That’s exactly why I’m waiting for the SK-1300 filing (expected post-close). Same for the gold/silver/zinc — no PEA or feasibility study yet, which is a valid red flag at this stage. They’ve produced ~$4.85B historically, so the remaining deposit is what it is (lower grade, higher strip in parts), and we need real economics before anyone should go all-in. I’m in the same boat as you — I want to see: • Signed definitive agreement • Full SK-1300 with updated reserves + economic numbers (NPV, IRR, capex, etc.) • A credible mining-heavy team addition (they’ve started with Brodmerkel, but more experienced operators would help)

canadian_boi

Help me out here - Their CTO is a makeup specialist and their comms guy worked retail clothing and film festivals.....they need to get their team together before I'd consider this. From their NR, "rare earth potential" - no mention of grades, mineralization style (can they even process it, or is it like almost every other REE play?) Need to see an updated PEA at least....preferably a Feasability study with economic numbers on what an NPV on the gold/silver/zinc/copper production will look like. They've yanked over 6 billion in minreals out already, so what's left is there for a reason...lower grade, higher stripping ratios....blah blah blah....let's see some proposed financials at a minimum, preferably by a backed team of experienced, tenured mining professions. If you want REEs, look at NTMC. Best metallurgy out there and should be a decent resource. Strong team of geos and engineers running it.

TheHotDogGuy420

They sell the silver with 2 months hedging so basically now in Q4 we will see something like August prices? Still if they pull 1 million oz with price of 75 dollars/oz for the year they can clean their balance sheet and actually earn their market cap in a year. Could consider this as pure silver play. Every dollar in silver price increases their revenue by 12 million SEK so basically one million dollars. Finland is definetly very mine friendly country considering there is no risk for increasing taxes etc. My only concern is the silver price and if the ore is lower grams/ton as predicted. But considering mine life of atleast 10 years with current production and silver price of 75 dollars/oz their NPV should be about 300 million dollars. so we can see about 2-3x from here. If the silver average price for the year is about 100 dollars/oz we can see possibly NPV of 450 million which is 4x from todays price. If we manage to get 1,2 million oz and the silver is 100 dollars/oz the NPV us over 560 million. So 5x.... Sotkamo Silvers earnings this year is about 70 million dollars which puts p/e about 2 :)

Nzain1

This is the best lithium deposit in America and extremely undervalued currently. This will retire bloodlines when the NPV increases as the resource expands into the JV territory and includes the significant amounts of CS/RB also found on the site. Very close to a Tesla GIGA battery factory.

kylkartz21

Use someone elses money, then take the benefit on TVM and NPV.

InverseTheReverse

Why the fuck wouldn’t I gamble my money in the stock market…. NPV of 100k compounded at 3.25% over 25 years with inflation offsetting is $105k. You’re telling me a “safe investment” only gets me $5k more of buying power after TWENTY-FIVE fucking years??! Nah dawg, I’ll chase those 100x baggers

SameCategory546

1) Run a dcf on an oil company at $55 WTI and $70 WTI and compare the two and understand that forward expectations are built into the price of stocks. Yoj will see that natural resource stocks have a ton of operating leverage and that it is possible that if oil prices go up, they will make huge money. 2) understand that natural resource companies can have huge amounts of resources. Some of them are multigenerational assets. If you have a mine that has a mine life of 100 years, that will not show up at all in an NPV8, but decades’ worth of reserves certainly doesn’t get valued at $0.

OpenMarketNow

Ones considered safe haven, while the alternative is not. Cap rates are real estate. PE company specific. NPV is for t bills / bonds. But, I appreciate the twist and perhaps you are on to something

Money_Research

Also that 7.7b is straight in-situ contained metal value at current-ish prices assuming 100% recovery and zero discounts for costs, royalties, taxes, capex, or anything else. I should’ve caveated that more clearly—it’s a gross/undiscounted number to show scale, not a realistic NPV or sale price. Don’t want to be misleading here. I should of initially made that clear

Initial-Structure-28

I’m pretty sure it’s NPV of revenues is less than its market cap.

Initial-Structure-28

It’s overvalued by any reasonable NPV and anyone arguing against that in here is financially illiterate. 

bootsupondesk

TMC just got a bump in NPV https://x.com/gamblioc100/status/2016998314697228415?s=20

summerfel

I don’t think so… with commodity prices ripping higher, the underlying value of the project has outpaced the share price. WRN is trading at a $1b mkt cap vs. a NPV of $9-10b. Still a lot of room to re-rate higher. I hope the stock has a chance to reach closer to fair value before a major takes it out. All the big mining companies are desperate for copper and gold in Canada.

pinnerbluntz

I like Surge copper. Here’s a claude summary. Surge Copper (SURG.V) is massively undervalued given current conditions. Their Berg Project in BC has a C$2.1B NPV at $4.00/lb copper, but copper is currently trading at $5.82/lb - meaning the project economics are ~50% better than their PEA assumed. Yet the company trades at only C$200M market cap (~4% of NPV). The real kicker: Canada is in nation-building mode after the US trade fallout, and PM Mark Carney is fast-tracking resource projects through the new Major Projects Office with 2-year max approval timelines. Berg would add ~15% to Canada’s copper production and fits perfectly with their strategic priorities. With the PFS due H1 2026, permitting risk significantly reduced, copper in a structural deficit, and the stock trading at 4 cents on the dollar of NPV, this could easily be a 5-10x over the next few years if they execute and get MPO support.

Aromatic_Pianist792

The stock price has increased a lot, but so has the NPV of the metal in the ground. That extra $2000 per ounce of gold and $2 per pound of copper since last year is all free cash flow. Of course, that is all dependent on the project actually advancing. If they can manage all of the many logistical hurdles, they'll be bought out at a much higher price than what they're currently at. But it won't be easy and will likely take a lot of time.

TylerBlozak

Look at their deposits (berg and Ootska) and also observe their current mkt cap vs NPV @$6 copper

Usual_Retard_6859

The government already got ten cents on the dollar. NPV for their flagship project in pre-feasibility study phase is $1.56b, Federal government got a 10% stake for $1.6b.

LastUltimateY0l0

Yeah the NPV is a lot lower (was trying to learn more last night) than China but I think the asymmetric upside to a western market is still there

Rare-Chemical868

Nice little project. The economics aren't that great because tungsten is a small market dominated by China who has beaten the price down to levels that make it not make sense to produce tungsten in higher cost places. The best mines in the world rarely are turned off. There is a reason why this project is not producing Tungsten currently. The NPV numbers aren't that great vs. the market cap. Value is thin GLTA

adizzle2517

Come up with an idea of industries that you believe have a future. You’ll want to invest in something that you believe in and won’t freak out if it drops x%. Patience is key, follow your research and don’t chase FOMO. I use ChatGPT a ton and if you give it good prompts, make sure to keep it honest of current prices etc. then you can get list of potential companies and start deep diving from there. I’ve used it to go deep on junior miners and honed in on 2-3 solid plays (BHLL, SVRSF, TLOFF) I can largely ignore and sleep well at night. Ask prompts/questions about peer comparisons on market cap, dilution, leadership pedigree, institutional ownership, outstanding warrants, and even projected share price based on catalysts, NPV, FCF etc.

Separate-Permit2522

🇸🇪🇳🇴 NORDIC MINING JUNIOR STOCK TIP & DISCUSSION STOCK TIP: Grangex (GRANGX, First North Stockholm) —near-production, ultra-high-grade iron ore developer with potential near-term explosive upside - Restarting Sydvaranger mine in Kirkenes, Norway - Large-scale ultra-high-grade iron ore (European) - Brownfield restart with maintained infrastructure and equipment - Near production: FID targeted Q1 2026, first ore Q4 2026 - ~25-year life of mine (latest DFS) - 100% of production sold to Anglo American - Anglo able to provide bank-like project lending - Top-tier financing advisors: DNB Carnegie, ABG Sundal Collier, SB1 Markets - $37m royalty removed by Anglo → improved project economics - Own rail + deep-water harbor - Valuation: trading at a material discount to DFS NPV Do your own research. The clock is ticking — good risk, good reward. DISCUSSION: What’s your take on Grangex at this stage — or are there any other mining juniors (Nordic or global) with similar near-term upside and a comparable risk profile that you’re watching?

Separate-Permit2522

🇸🇪🇳🇴 NORDIC MINING JUNIOR STOCK TIP & DISCUSSION STOCK TIP: Grangex (GRANGX, First North Stockholm) —near-production, ultra-high-grade iron ore developer with potential near-term explosive upside - Restarting Sydvaranger mine in Kirkenes, Norway - Large-scale ultra-high-grade iron ore (European) - Brownfield restart with maintained infrastructure and equipment - Near production: FID targeted Q1 2026, first ore Q4 2026 - ~25-year life of mine (latest DFS) - 100% of production sold to Anglo American - Anglo able to provide bank-like project lending - Top-tier financing advisors: DNB Carnegie, ABG Sundal Collier, SB1 Markets - $37m royalty removed by Anglo → improved project economics - Own rail + deep-water harbor - Valuation: trading at a material discount to DFS NPV Do your own research. The clock is ticking — good risk, good reward. DISCUSSION: What’s your take on Grangex at this stage — or are there any other mining juniors (Nordic or global) with similar near-term upside and a comparable risk profile that you’re watching?

SameCategory546

it’s really difficult to value mines on an NPV basis and you have to check on their assumptions, which is even more difficult because this is a different type of mining. You never know when someone is bullshitting you on their feasibility study I think you have to rely on technical analysis for this one.

siddsp

Tesla doesn't need the recurring revenue to be profitable over one time subscription. They can calculate the NPV of the recurring profit from subscription and convert that to a one time purchase price.

One-Replacement-37

🤡 The only “absolute trash stock” that: • ⁠Pumped 700% in 2025 • ⁠Was the subject of a dedicated Executive Order, 2x legislative bills, and several house hearings • ⁠Got congress to mandate the DoW to explore a multi-year procurement contract on the basis of national security • ⁠Was the reason behind the first NOAA DSM policy changes since 1970 • ⁠Convinced Alex Spiro, Steve Jurvetson (SpaceX, Tesla), the Hess family, and AllSeas - the largest maritime contractor in the world, to go all in & join the board of directors • ⁠Got the U.S. to give the middle finger to the international seabed authority, against all other countries • ⁠Has not diluted its shareholders and have sufficient cash (+ including warrants) to go to production • ⁠Have a combined NPV of $23.6B worth of copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt - when a global shortage of those metals is ongoing, and while the world is in needs to mine as much copper in 18 years that we have mined in the past 10,000 years combined • ⁠Got their CEO a semi-permanent hotel room at the white house • ⁠Is lobbied the the 3 consecutive years top lobbyist of Washington (Samir Kapadia) See you at the top.

One-Replacement-37

🤡🤡🤡 The only “absolute trash stock” that: - Pumped 700% in 2025 - Was the subject of a dedicated Executive Order, and 2x legislative bills - Was the reason behind the first NOAA DSM policy changes since 1970 - Convinced Alex Spiro, Steve Jurvetson (SpaceX, Tesla), the Hess family, and AllSeas - the largest maritime contractor in the world, to go all in & join the board of directors - Got the U.S. to give the middle finger to the international seabed authority, against all other countries - Has not diluted its shareholders and have sufficient cash (+ including warrants) to go to production - Have a combined NPV of $23.6B worth of copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt - when a global shortage of those metals is ongoing, and while the world is in needs to mine as much copper in 18 years that we have mined in the past 10,000 years combined 👌👌👌 See you at the top.

SPACmanJones

Been in $tmc and $tmcww for like 1.5 years. Holding til at least $20 or $0. This guys correct about it being a great binary play. The 700% is baseless though. Based on the NPV of their claims it'd trade more in like $25-30 range if they get their license. Probably trade a under that. But it's also a new technology, new market, hype with critical minerals and national security. Also if prices of manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt rise that changes the valuation of their claims. So it might trade higher. Company has ties to Trump, Musk, and big time oil execs. CEO was in DC a lot a few months ago but things have been quiet lately. Also potential to be one of the next companies the U.S. takes a stake in.

gravescd

Treasuries have a constant coupon rate regardless of inflation, except for TIPS. They are cash flow and their price is based substantially on the NPV of that cash flow. Gold is a universal intermediary among currencies with almost no intrinsic value. Its price is supply/demand and vibes. These are entirely different assets and have different functions in a portfolio. OP wants to replace Treasuries due to uncertainty in the dollar, so it doesn't make sense to suggest a non-cash flow asset with totally different pricing dynamics. There are plenty of bonds out there not tied to USD liquidity.

Prudent-Corgi3793

I didn't want this stock, but I ended up with this because I own CMCSA. According to Seeking Alpha consensus earnings estimates, it's trading at 2026E P/E 3.34, 2027E P/E 4.14, and 2028 P/E 4.31. That was assuming a market cap of $5.29 billion, but according to Stock Analysis, it's now trading with a market cap of $4.85 billion, presumably because it's fallen so much in the first few days of trading after the spin off. If so, it's even cheaper. According to SA, equity (book value) is $10.29 billion, which would put its P/B at about 0.5. These metrics are possibly really unreliable given the recent spinoff and the lack of coverage as it's now a small cap, but it almost certainly is encountering adverse selling pressure due to no longer belonging in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, and other significant indices. So my plan is to hold for a little bit anyway to wait for the forced selling to dissipate, and hopefully have some better information to work with. Assuming these numbers and estimates are accurate, using a 10% discount rate and assuming that this is a dying company (like the rest of the cable industry) that will lose net income at 5% per year, I still have the NPV of the next few years of EPS being worth more than the current stock price. I'd really love to know when the first earnings report will be before I decide what to do with this position. I can see myself selling my remaining shares or even adding more.

stoned2brds

It actually is Otherwise they hold cash and we know all about inflation. Well the finance people do. What it'll do is force them to take all NPV positive projects in essence. So yeah PPE and manufacturing would increase. Pretty obvious.

TylerBlozak

Nice. It’s a super risky play in regards to the development timeline and the jurisdiction. I still think there’s an outside chance of a junta take over once Dasa is operational, but I’ll be divested before then. Waiting for $2 USD. It’s currently only valued at like 16% of NPV (@ $80 spot U) so the general sentiment of institutions isn’t overwhelmingly full of conviction. What entices me is that Dasa is one of the few prospective greenfield plays out there, which makes it very unique. Plus being at this stage of the DFC approval process (especially since the last update) bodes well since the approval rate is like 95% for projects that have made it this far. Can’t wait till late Jan!

sylov

One question i had: at current valuations, say the zinc mine is worth 100-200m, and the NPV of graphite is stated to be worth ~500m, giving this a haircut (lets say to 300m), we are in the ballpark of 400-500m. Do you think this realistically has asset value to be a multibagger from here or has most of the money been made? The chairman has multiple great exits too. I guess they could expand or get into other minerals from here but thats speculative. Love the idea due to the leverage provided by a successful zinc mine, just wondering on the upside potential.

SomeoneNicer

The current value is supposed to be the NPV of future dividends the company will pay out. Anything else and it's the greater fool theory which sure you can believe in and invest based on - but it's just a theory and gets "broken" every major market correction that resets values back below book value due to behavioral economics. If you haven't, check out Yale's free Financial Markets course, it helps explain a ton of market functions and theories in great detail.

choconou

it’s easy i calculated npv with correction of errors: mix of ore and a component of ore which bear valuable metals , eudialyte , also a product of process of ore in Greenland . oblivion of Ta Ga Rb Hf use of a extraordinary discount rate , 15% instrad of usual 8% with that he divided NPV by 12 to 32 nobody talk of these 3 errors but only of the errors inflating NPV , those errors multiply by 3 NPV bringing it from 1 B$ to 3B$ . globally NPV in PEA is divided by 4, without hafnium to10 ( with hafnium at 44% of world price)

choconou

CRML ought to rise by 700% or even 2000% , with 2 effects: the correction of Net Positive Value of 3B$ in awful Preliminary Economic Assessment of Tanbreez , a giant deposit in Greenland. Rise if probablity that project is developped with rise of NPV PEA is terrible , there are 3 enormous mistakes which decrease NPV : Attribution of ore contents in valuable metals to a component of ore , Eudialyte , bearing valuable metals and present at 17% in ore . Oblivion of gallium, tantalum and mostly hafnium worth more than all other metals . Use of 15% discount rate .

Longjumping-Bid-9523

Why does this solicitation not include some verifiable metrics (e.g. DFC analysis leading to NPV, copper and cobalt grade, strip ratio, C1 cash costs) or even geo coordinates?

sherwoodf99

Mkango / Hypromag have patented HPMS technology to recover and recycle rare earths, and have commercialised production with product sales.  Market cap is not factoring in at all how advanced they are with the tech and operations! NASDAQ listing of ther mining and refining business due in Q1 2026, valued at more than the current market cap. #MKA significantly undervalued at $240m. Competitor USAR for example valued at $2.6 billion. Market is completely asleep with regards to Mkango valuation. Recycling facility in UK fully operational, Germany in next few weeks, potential for Japan, Canada and Korea. USA looking at 3 initial facilities, with up to 7 to 10 total, each with NPV over $600m. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MKA/mkango-releases-q3-2025-results-4vudopmg9gchhdc.html

sherwoodf99

Mkango / Hypromag have patented HPMS technology to recover and recycle rare earths, and have commercialised production with product sales.  Market cap is not factoring in at all how advanced they are with the tech and operations! NASDAQ listing of ther mining and refining business due in Q1 2026, valued at more than the current market cap. #MKA significantly undervalued at $240m. Competitor USAR for example valued at $2.6 billion. Market is completely asleep with tegatds to Mkango valuation. Recycling facility in UK fully operational, Germany in next few weeks, potential for Japan, Canada and Korea. USA looking at 3 initial facilities, with up to 7 to 10, each with NPV over $600m. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MKA/mkango-releases-q3-2025-results-4vudopmg9gchhdc.html

JohnWCreasy1

IMO its really hard to come up with a good scenario where the NPV of the weekly payout equals a million bucks. I'd go so far as to argue that if a scenario arose where the $1000 was favorable (deflation), there might also be the risk the lottery agency can no longer pay. i would take the $1M but i suppose i could imagine scenarios where there are other non-financial reasons to want the security of the weekly payout

Phazem

Bro this looks exactly like mine. Full puts on everything on robinhood while sitting in my morning finance clsss ignoring all the bonds NPV bs

ButtStuffingt0n

Oh sweet summer child. The market hasn't actually used NPV to trade since the early 90s. If it did, 95% of the market would have zero daily trading volume.

2020Macthedog

I assume you know what net present value (NPV) is. So a bond funds is essentially the NPV of a pile of bonds. The key variable in the calculation is the interest rate used. When you buy a bond for a given duration and interest rate you pay a set price and then (for some) you get paid a coupon at a set interval. At the end you get your principle back. Now say that interest rates go up. What happens? For the bond funds the price will instantaneously reflect the total impact on the NPV of its pile of bonds. Fund could tank a lot. For the bond, the price of the bond drops but nothing else happens. You still receive the coupon and you still get all of your capital back in the end. Make any sense?

IawahR

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/11/14/3188501/0/en/Euro-Sun-Welcomes-Romania-s-Steps-to-Adopt-the-European-Union-s-Critical-Raw-Materials-Act-and-Reports-Stronger-Project-Economics-With-NPV-Rising-to-US-1-78-Billion-at-Rovina-Valle.html The Romanian government and Europe as a whole is rallying behind the project, with a great management team and fantastic evaluation of the project itself, and countless de-risking events having taken place.

Happy_Discussion_536

No you don't retard because money today has more value than money later. Ugh I've already engaged with you too long. I'm sorry you don't understand basic finance and you need to open a book. I can't teach you this. Unless you bring something substantial to the table that's new I can't engage with you further on this topic. If you don't understand how you will do far better than 3% real borrowing rate by compounding from year 30 to year 50 I can't help you. Best of luck, this is my last comment in this thread. If you say something worthwhile and new that demonstrates your understanding of how to do NPV calculations work I will respond.

Sufficient_Leek2779

I would do an NPV and IRR calculation to check if the project will pay off

bitorontoguy

Outperforming the market on a relative basis doesn't involve like "tricks" that stop working. There are fundamental biases in the market that you can use to outperform over a full market cycle. They haven't "stopped working". The whole job is trying to find good companies that we think are priced below their fundamental valuation. We do that by trying to model the business and its future cash flows and discount those cash flows to get an NPV. Is it easy? No. Is it a guarantee short-term profit? No. Will my stock picks always pay off? No. The future is impossible to predict. But if we're right like 55% of the time and consistently follow our process, we'll outperform, which we have. Glad to recommend books on how professionals actually approach the market if you're legitimately interested. If you're not? Fuck it, you can VTI and chill and approximate 95+% of what my job is with zero effort.

PossibilityNo7360

Yes, the 40m is correct but i need to correct myself. I only started my DD on this so plz anyone chip in. The legacy wells (Seven Rivers) have a NPV10 of $208m. The new farm-out agreement of San Andres is $95m. So i get 208/40 = 5.2$ NAV per share for the legacy wells and 2.3$ NAV per share = 7.5$ per share. Let's take a discount of 40% that yields $4.5 NAV per share. That excludes the newly acquired. Given it is Texas (not California), mature oil field - the execution risk is minimal?

PossibilityNo7360

of course crude oil price is volatile but i was referring to any execution risk? The Graburg Jackson Field has a NPV10 of \~$95m so divided by 25m shares outstanding i get to a $3.8 NAV per share! that is 7x the actual share price. very rough math but it indicates the uspside potential

Significant_Gene7582

Okay regard, a quick Chat GPT says: TL/DR.....YOU are a REGARD! **DNN = Denison Mines** — a Canada-based uranium developer focused on the **Wheeler River** project (Athabasca Basin, SK). The near-term story is the **Phoenix ISR** deposit. # Why DNN is on radars right now * **Permitting is in the home stretch:** Provincial environmental assessment **approved Aug 2025**. Remaining **federal approvals** (EA + License to Prepare Site & Construct) are scheduled for **CNSC public hearings in Oct and Dec 2025**. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-receives-provincial-environmental-assessme-122827/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Timeline if approvals land:** Company guidance targets **construction in early 2026** and **first production in H1 2028** for Phoenix ISR. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/site/assets/files/6716/denison_mines_corp__denison_reports_cnsc_hearing_dates_for_phoen.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Economics/tech:** Phoenix has a completed **feasibility study (ISR mining)**; Denison is also advancing **Midwest ISR** (PEA: after-tax NPV \~$965M, IRR \~83%). [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/projects/wheeler-river-project/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # “Government funding” angle * Most current **U.S. DOE/DoD uranium procurement/funding** programs primarily benefit **U.S.-based producers** (e.g., UUUU, URG, UEC). DNN, being Canadian, would **benefit indirectly** via uranium price and Western supply-chain support, not from U.S. checks to Denison. Canada, however, is politically supportive of nuclear fuel supply growth; policy tailwinds + permitting progress are the nearer catalysts. [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/3bd80044-1b75-42d0-8f15-707eaeefba17?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # What could move the stock this month * **CNSC hearing(s) in October 2025** on federal approvals for Phoenix ISR – any positive read-through or decision timing updates are potential catalysts. [Denison Mines Corp.+1](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-reports-financial-and-operational-results-122829/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) # Key risks * **Permitting & timing risk** (federal approvals still pending). [Denison Mines Corp.](https://denisonmines.com/news/denison-reports-financial-and-operational-results-122829/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) * **Financing/capex** to build Phoenix once permits arrive. * **Uranium price sensitivity** (developer without current large-scale production). * **Execution** on first-of-its-kind **ISR uranium mine in Canada**.

Wheream_I

You’re not really misunderstanding but we are talking past each other. Of course different dividend stocks in different industries have different risk profiles, and thus they have different discount rates assigned to the NPV of their future cash flows. I’m saying that with dividend stocks you aren’t really getting a market advantage, because the risk is calculated and highly correlated, it’s all tied to the risk free rate, and the stock prices reflect all of this and don’t really beat the risk free rate in the long term unless you think the discount rate assigned to the dividend stock is incorrect. Growth stocks are inherently higher risk higher reward because the high-low spread of assigned risk is greater, and you can gamble on a few winners when growth calculations are incorrect on the downside.

Wheream_I

Agreed. The issue with dividend stocks is that they are literally mathematically figured out and their stock prices reflect it. The only premium you get on them vs the risk free rate is the discount rate assigned to the stock, as their valuation is literally just the NPV of all future cash flows.

E__anon

And the Northisle Copper and gold is the largest copper deposit that isn’t currently owned by a major mining company. They boast an NPV of 2 billion with gold at 2150 per oz and copper at 4.20/lb. Needless to say gold and copper are trading much higher than that. This one is a longer play than golden cross but is looking like it’s going to be a 15 billion dollar district. They just announced more drilling and they’re fully funded with 40 mil in the bank.

Zipski577

No it isn’t😂 and it’s not just revenue that gets impacted. And the previous trading price implied that $60m would GROW… substantially Not totally evaporate 😂 the NPV of that just went to 0 when it was previously a sizable piece of the valuation. Ads revenue can’t grow forever.. they needed the AI data revenue to become a driver for growth. Thats out the window now

Zipski577

Yes. People don’t understand discounted cash flow and NPV here lol

FastFwdFrank

Stole this from someone on X. Not exactly what you’re looking for but it is extremely thorough: “You are an equity research analyst. Produce a rigorous, source-backed investment memo on {Company} [{Ticker}] with a clear Buy, Hold, or Sell call. Rules for research and writing 1) Use only verifiable, recent sources. Prioritize official filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, regulatory documents, reputable industry data, and high quality media. Cite every non-obvious fact with a link and date. 2) Separate facts from interpretation. Tag each paragraph as Fact, Analysis, or Inference. 3) Use precise dates. Avoid vague time references. 4) Quantify claims. Show math for derived metrics. Use tables where helpful. 5) Note uncertainty. Call out missing data and state assumptions. Deliverables A) Executive summary (8 to 12 bullets): snapshot, thesis, rating, price targets and time frames, key drivers, key risks, near-term catalysts, and what would change the call. B) Full memo with sections 1 through 15 below. C) Appendix: source list with links and dates, data tables, and a simple operating model. 1) Thesis framing (purpose: define what must be true to create value) - State the core investment question in one sentence. - List 3 to 5 thesis pillars that would make the stock attractive. - List disconfirming evidence to test that could break the thesis. 2) Market structure and size (purpose: size the prize and trajectory) - Quantify TAM, SAM, SOM. Segment by product line, customer size, industry, and geography. - Identify growth drivers: regulation, replacement cycles, macro activity, technology adoption. - Estimate current penetration and runway. Compare against peer adoption curves. 3) Customer segments and jobs to be done (purpose: map who buys and why) - Describe mix by size band and industry. Identify buyer roles and budget owners. - Detail core workflows and pain points. Explain mission criticality. - Assess switching costs and vendor lock-in by segment. 4) Product and roadmap (purpose: evaluate product-market fit and durability) - Summarize core modules and adjacent products. Call out differentiators. - Compare depth vs breadth versus best point solutions. - Explain implementation time, integrations, configurability, and typical time to value. - Provide quality and reliability signals: uptime, incident history, mobile performance. - Roadmap credibility: stated milestones versus delivery track record. 5) Competitive landscape (purpose: position the company) - Identify direct and indirect competitors by segment and size. - Compare pricing, packaging, and feature gaps. Include switching friction and contract terms. - Summarize win or loss reasons from reviews, case studies, and disclosed data. 6) Go-to-market and distribution (purpose: test scalability of new-logo engine) - Break down demand sources: inbound, outbound, partner referrals, marketplaces. - Sales productivity: ramp, quota attainment, conversion rates where disclosed or inferred. - Role of channels and partnerships: integrations, OEMs, platforms. - Services and customer success model. Training and community as moat. 7) Retention and expansion (purpose: quantify durability of revenue) - Report gross and net dollar retention by cohort and segment if disclosed or estimable. - Explain logo churn drivers and timing. Provide a churn curve if possible. - Identify expansion vectors: seat growth, module attach, usage-based add-ons. - Discuss contract length, renewal mechanics, and price increase policies. - Include reference-call insights or credible review synthesis. 8) Monetization and embedded finance if applicable (purpose: understand usage economics) - Revenue streams and pricing model. For payments or fintech: share of customers active, GTV penetration, take rate by tender type, blended margin, cost stack, fraud exposure, and who holds credit risk. - Revenue recognition: gross vs net. Seasonality and cyclicality. - ARPU uplift from usage products. Payback on onboarding. 9) Unit economics and efficiency (purpose: test scalability with profitable growth) - CAC, payback period, magic number, LTV to CAC by segment if available or estimable. - Contribution margin by line: software vs usage vs services. - Cohort profitability and cash contribution over time. - Implementation and support cost over customer lifetime. 10) Financial profile (purpose: link operations to financial outcomes) - Revenue mix and growth by component. Gross margin by line. Operating leverage path. - Rule of 40 and efficiency trends. GAAP to cash flow bridge. - Leading indicators: billings, RPO, backlog. - SBC, dilution, and share count trajectory. - Liquidity, working capital needs, and path to FCF breakeven and target margin. 11) Moat and data advantage (purpose: assess defensibility) - Workflow depth and data lock-in. Network or ecosystem effects if present. - AI or analytics differentiation with measurable outcomes. - Integration footprint and practical switching costs. 12) Execution quality and organization (purpose: evaluate management and operating cadence) - Leadership track record and stability. Org design and succession. - Engineering velocity: release cadence, defect and incident rates where available. - Customer sentiment: CSAT, NPS, peer review sites, and community signals. 13) Risk inventory and mitigants (purpose: make downside explicit) - Macro, regulatory, competitive, operational, and concentration risks. - Payments, credit, or compliance risks if relevant. - Implementation complexity and time-to-value risks. - For each risk, propose leading indicators and mitigations. 14) Valuation framework (purpose: value with cross-checks) - Public comps table: growth, gross margin, operating margin, Rule of 40, EV to revenue, EV to gross profit. Normalize for any usage or payments reporting differences. - DCF with explicit drivers and sensitivity bands. - Cross-checks: cohort NPV math, S-curve adoption, unit economics to enterprise value sanity checks. 15) Scenarios, catalysts, and monitoring plan (purpose: set expectations and triggers) - 12 to 24 month bear, base, bull cases. Specify NRR, new logos, pricing or take rate, margins, SBC, and share count. Assign probabilities that sum to 100 percent. - Near-term catalysts: product launches, pricing changes, partnerships, market entries, M&A, regulatory outcomes. - Early warning indicators: churn spikes in small cohorts, backlog slippage, uptime incidents, pricing pushback. - What would change my mind: three positive and three negative triggers. Output format - Executive summary - Rating with price targets and time frames - Investment thesis and variant perception - Detailed sections 1 through 15 - Tables and charts embedded - Source list with links and dates - Appendix with model assumptions and calculations Quality bar - No generic claims. Back important statements with numbers and citations. - Label any speculation as Inference. - Be concise and structured. Prefer bullets and tables.

Sea_Vehicle984

Made the news recently on their permit. Local eco nutbars are appealing EAO decision, but the case is super weak and may be dismissed outright. Read the decision document as the EAO addressed every possible angle, and the courts give a lot of discretion to them. The Friends of Davie vs. EAO precedent dismissed their case, and an overturn decision would affect every gravel pit in the province. Regardless, I have been advised that it has no bearing on the permit finalization underway, which is expected to wrap up in October. It's been 6 years in the making, so it's almost there. Permit unleashes a series of news releases as they can move forward after a couple of years on regulatory treadmill. A billion dollar asset trades at 4% NPV. Magnesium and silica with some nickel to boot. Should be a good trade and long-term hold. Tight float due to large insider ownership. Go WHY!

Vimes76

Not knocking the sentiment here, definitely caution advised. However doing a bit of reading myself, as Lithium is a commodity with a moving price, the NPV of the deposit is surely hard to determine.

Cut_Copies

it can only be worth as much as the NPV of the Lithium deposit in the ground. Its probability adjusted equity value probably exceeds that now... so tread with caution

Sovereign_Sentinel

Few reasons. Tariffs, trade wars, dollar devaluation. The US in particular imports 80-90% of its potash from Canada and has very little domestic production. The US is acquiring a 10% stake in LAC (lithium producer and poorly run at that) and the thought is what's the next investment they will make that we can front run? They recently declared potash as a critical mineral in August so its likely potash could be the US's next investment. I have a massive stake in MLPNF got in at .47 cents. They are targeting a sale of the company end of 2026 for NPV of 1.5 billion CAD or a premium. 5x from here. Taking dilution of shares into consideration im expecting a minimum share price of $7. Currently $2.35.

BackgammonFella

That pushes my TSLA short to 21% of NPV of my brokerage. Stings a bit, but I am not covering. Reality will start to matter at some point.

Narrow_Chance7639

It's easy to get caught up in the hype of a big partnership, but the NPV is the real question. It's probably more about the access to Intel's supply chain and engineering talent than a direct financial return.

keetboy

This is also a fair assessment. There is some upside to doing this. I’m holding for long just bc I believe in Nvidia only. I’m just not sure how much NPV intel brings to the table.

MaximinusRats

Your first set of arguments justifies a large, perhaps overweight, position in US equities. Your second set of arguments acknowledges that the first set of arguments might be wrong and justfies hedging your bet on the US by investing at least part of your assets in foreign equities. IIRC, the US market is \~30 per cent of the global total. Putting 15 per cent of your equity portfolio into foreign assets would mean aggressively overwighting the US. On another issue: you mention "sovereign debt issues" in connection with non-US markets, but the US government on current policy is seriously insolvent in NPV terms, so I don't think it's an issue that would weigh heavily one way or another on the US vs foreign issue. It might be important in deciding how mcuh you want to allocate to alternative assets.

Jeff__Skilling

> Buybacks themselves don’t mean much, They reduce a firms cost of capital? If the ROIC I make on excess free cash flow by utilizing it for capex is less than the reduction in the cost of capital I'd receive by buying back shares or paying down debt, why ***wouldn't*** I choose the latter? Doing otherwise would be a negative NPV scenario....

LigmaLlama0

You are conflating ROI or NPV with GDP, which are not the same. The usefulness of a dollar invested into capital is completely separate from GDP as a figure. Research has shown that increases in GDP improve quality of life for a country.

djs383

Still a case of TINA. When rf rate is so historically low, margin,NPV from projects or acquisitions make up the needed returns. As rf rate increases and inflation remains, those gains will be minimal albeit at a higher risk level. Rates have been far too low for too long now and a larger correction is needed for normal mechanics in my view