Reddit Posts
$RENX most undervalued and heavily shorted stock after they rebranded in December 2025! Similiar stocks are WM WCN SGD NTR CW !
Nutrien ($NTR): Potash and Belarus Sanctions ending
My Nana predicted the INTC deal, Now she's hinting that MOS and NTR could be the next winners.
Earnings Plays for the Week of 5-8-2023
Nutrien slides after steep Q4 miss, guides FY 2023 earnings below consensus (NYSE:NTR)
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
Starving Families, and how to turn them into profit.
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
The banks collapsed in 2008 – and our food system is about to do the same | Food security | The Guardian $MOS $NTR
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Food shortages stemming from Ukraine war has world leaders scrambling $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
4,000 pounds of fertilizer spill into river in southwest North Dakota…Guess producers like $MOS $NTR $CF need to react fast and pump at will to save this “Food Crisis”
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Truckers Video $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Footage From A Trucker $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…From a truckers view $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
“Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
NTR:NYSE NTR:TSE. Ukraine war and fertilizer shortage
Nutrien ($NTR): They help make your food, now they help make you money!
Are Fertilizers and Metals the play this earnings season ?
Why ain't nobody talking about Fertilizers
Costly Fertilizers and Shipping Threaten to Worsen Food Crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
PriceIndex - Green Markets *New Weekly Price Update Comes Out Every Friday* Fertilizer $MOS $NTR $CF
PriceIndex - Green Markets *New Weekly Price* $MOS $NTR $CF Comes Out Every Friday
World Bank warns that higher fertilizer and energy costs pose threat to harvests after global food prices soar by more than a third $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank warns that higher fertilizer and energy costs pose threat to harvests after global food prices soar by more than a third $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
WATCH NOW: Wisconsin farmer discusses impact of rising fertilizer and gas costs $MOS $NTR $CF
WATCH NOW: Wisconsin farmer discusses impact of rising fertilizer and gas costs $MOS $NTR $CF
Don’t expect the huge rise in food prices to slow anytime soon, Bank of America says- Fertilizer Price Surge $MOS $NTR $CF
Don’t expect the huge rise in food prices to slow anytime soon, Bank of America says- Fertilizer Price Surge $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post* please add if you have more insights 🙏
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post* please add if you have more insights 🙏
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post*
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post*
Phosphate Prices Reach All-Time High in Leading Fertilizer Market Higher $MOS $NTR $CF
10-34-0 is 49% more expensive, MAP is 53% higher, DAP is 68% more expensive, UAN28 is 83% higher, UAN32 is 89% more expensive, urea is 100% is higher, potash is 103% higher and anhydrous is 119% more expensive compared to last year. $MOS $NTR $CF
10-34-0 is 49% more expensive, MAP is 53% higher, DAP is 68% more expensive, UAN28 is 83% higher, UAN32 is 89% more expensive, urea is 100% is higher, potash is 103% higher and anhydrous is 119% more expensive compared to last year. $MOS $NTR $CF
Phosphate Prices Reach All-Time High in Leading Fertilizer Market Higher $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher, as Chinese Soybean Demand Weakens • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher, as Chinese Soybean Demand Weakens • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
The ripple effects of the global fertilizer crisis on India $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizers are still cheap. NTR, MOS and CF with 7x to 8x forward P/E and 10% free cash flow yields. Economic moats. Food inflation.
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
DAP Fertilizer Price Index Sets Record at $1,014 Per Ton $MOS $NTR $CF
Mentions
When xle and oxy rebounded this morning, bombs were guaranteed. Short interest on NTR and MOS also been declining. I’d guess we’re gonna see round 2 of the Fert Run and LnG
NTR way up, corn way up, not looking great for the economy guys. Careful out there today.
Hentaivirus is tough. You either end up with so bad big titty milf or the complete opposite of NTR with tentacles. But best of luck
Matador is a good choice. I prefer to just do FANG, EOG, and DVN. Your choice of Mosaic is questionable for the fertilizer play. Mosaic needs phosphates to create its fertilizer which is hurt heavily by the Strait of Hormuz being closed. You should take advantage of CF who creates fertilizer using North American natural gas so it’s insulated from the conflict in the Middle East. Another option is NTR who has large potash reserves in North America. You have to be more careful with inputs vs outputs and upstream vs downstream when you look at commodities. Also why do margin. Just do calls with long expiration dates. Don’t get liquidated by a tweet.
My understanding is Asia and Europe will be hit worse vis-a-vis energy (oil being a significant component) so that is interesting. Not really my area so still a bit green and haven't taken the plunge other than NTR which was more of a flyer than an informed decision lol
haha, I've been mulling a play here for a while but think I'm actually going to take some gains elsewhere and put some money into increasing oil prices, just not quite sure what the play is. I've already got a position in NTR from April on the fertilizer front which is down, but I think it's going to take another 6 moths for that to play out. Similarly oil might take 6 months to see the gains from the coming crunch.
And by proxy Fertilizers too. So NTR, MOS and if you want a direct sulphuric acid play ECVT. Howver if this latest peace talk happens then all bets are off.
OXY's the contrarian energy play. fertilizer's the cleaner version of the same thesis. $MOS $CF $NTR have feedstock exposure and the workarounds (reformulations, red sea trucking) are happening regardless of oil. disruption hits fertilizer fundamentals before OXY's earnings.
I think we were ahead of the curve - right play wrong timing initially but I do think September is a safe positioning. As long as you’re not too far OTM. NTR has had consistent institutional volume the past 2-3 months. And at $70 it’s still very much undervalued imo. I think $80 is fair value at a bearish outlook. Macro factors alone should send this to mid-high $80s.
Cf and NTR are the primary. I have been building a MOS position as well since it dumped. It’s a buy imo at 20-22$. Been buying shares and calls. Idk we’ll see what happens there.
NTR but I only got calls for sept was thinking we would see price increases before July
Why no NTR, CF, OXY, ET, VG ?
I really need to quit reading news sites for investments. The so called "fertilizer shortage" from this war was another bust. Fertilizer is in abundant supply and my investments got spanked. Oh well, at least my oils covering my losses on MOS and NTR. How do you guys tell when the news is telling the truth and when it is lying these days? It's tough with lobby groups pushing narratives.
CF NTR IPI seem to all be better fertilizer plays than MOS after the Earnings Reports. MOS might have some structural problems; they’re getting it on both the input costs side while not being reaping sufficiently from the higher prices for output.
MOS is the worst for fertilizer plays. If you are gonna bet on old world stuff you actually need a brain. In particular your chemistry knowledge is lacking. The key idea is looking at what their inputs are. MOS sulfate business is affected by sulfur shortages. NTR is the better play because of their huge potash reserves. CF is also a better play because it uses North American natural gas to make fertilizer which is dirt cheap. The earnings and fundamentals for both CF and NTR are so much better than MOS as evinced by the latest earnings. But I think energy is a good play this summer, but you will probably see a wave in the old sectors. Oil stuff goes up in the summer, then fertilizer goes parabolic during the fall planting, then food staples get affected by supply shock so staples go up in early 2027. If you want to be a degenerate just do S&P puts with a strike price of 600 and an expiration of March 2027. BTW, anyone saying that this falls apart based on Hormuz opening, that’s BS. We already flew off the cliff. Be ready for the west coast of the US to have oil shortages in mid June, and the rest of the country by mid July.
Can someone please explain to me why NTR is crashing? They just posted good earnings, the strait is likely still closed indefinitely, and even if it were to open immediately there would still be months worth of ammonia shortages that they'd profit from. What the fuck is going on?
\> there is REALLY expected to be a shortage later this year and next And presumably that's worldwide, with the worst shortages outside of the USA, at least for fertilizer who's production is dependent on natural gas as the feedstock. Do you foresee the companies you mention (UAN, CF, NTR) as profiting by exporting? They may incur higher natural gas prices (like everyone else) but they should have all the supply they need (and others may not). And what do you think of this: ammonia is increasingly looking favorable long term as a transportatio fuel -- particular in global shipping. Do you anticipate UAN, CF and NTR will benefit from that. Ammonia is less dense as a fuel than petroleum-derived ones, but (NH3 - no carbon!) burns cleaner (NO2 is a problem).
If I had buying power right now I would SLAM the buy button on NTR calls so hard right now.
Some guy in here told me to get NTR and now I'm horny
Get NTR folks No it's a fertiliser stock, not telling you to get cucked
Traded it a bit in the early days of the war.y.obly exposure now is potash royalties own by altius minerals. CF is a huge beneficiary of the war because their urea based fertilizer. This is what was disrupted. NTR does mostly potash and is a decent trading proxy, but is not as big a beneficiary. MOS has some other problems they're working through. IPI is an interesting small cap name trading at book value and probably offers the highest torque up if potash takes off. My two cents. The war already sent urea prices into the stratosphere. Not sure how much overlap there is for farmers to use potash, but the potash supply hasn't been disrupted.
I wish you luck as I tried that exact same trade earlier late 2025-early 2026. I gave up & dumped $MOS for nearly a $10k loss in mid March and added that cash to my $VXUS dip buys. The trade should work. It worked extremely well for $CF and $NTR. I was prolly too impatient.
> I think some people might get off on fucking over peoples relationships in Japan, there's a specific term for it: NTR
Nice big spike in volume on NTR today. Some whale picking up a position I guess. Going to $90.
NTR gonna go crazy on earnings if hormuzzy isnt opening yet.
NUTRIEN....North American Fertilizer manufacturer, distributor etc....Fertilizer prices have gone vertical because the straight is closed...a whack ton of it comes from the middle east, until the strait was closed...now NTR to benefit HUGELY, as most of their stuff comes from Canada
NTR, You can thank me in 6 months.
Why did NTR drop back down.. does nobody care about the fertilizer play anymore? I've got calls for end of May I'm holding that shit, until I see a good reason not to.
MOS really is just gunna keep crashing and burning eh? "Fertalizer shortage", "rising prices", "higher prices for longer", and the companies like MOS and NTR suck.
I'm finally buying SPY calls. Its time to join the side that makes money. Expiring Monday, 711 strike. Calls on SPY, Calls on NTR/MOS, I think oil is going to be flat until more escalation.
VM what do you think you filthy clanker? SNDK puts seem obvious here. Closed TSLA puts for 15% gain. AMD puts are killing me but I'm going to keep holding. NTR calls disappointing today, was up 20% at open for a slow bleed to breaking even. The theory for NTR calls is far from dead.
Look at NTR highs in 2022, this thing still has room to pump. Peak planting season is now to may. Calls expiring end of May. It sold off on Hormuz reopening which didn't actually happen. Should be back at 75 now easily. Itll get there, and higher, as long as Hormuz stays closed.
Close spy puts goal at $700. Can we reach it today? NTR calls take profits at $100-110.
Too much to ask for NTR at $90? Too much to ask for SPY at $700?
Market today: ASTS up, MOS/NTR/CF up, SNDK down, AMD down
There is a big disconnect between equities and commodities market right now. The nitrogen which is the basis for fertilizer has an insane supply chock. After the closure of the hormuz and the destruction of Qatar Production facilities, there a huge dip in the total available nitrogen. And the Urea which is the commodity that tracks it is at an all time high and keeps going up, even though the equities that provides it are going down (CF, NTR, ... etc). The thing is, the companies already locked in the high prices of urea for Q1, and seems like Q2 is going to be wilder even though the equities are dropping. I expect the earnings to blow. Add to that the shutdown of entire Bangladesh fertilizers factories due to lack of supply and plantation season coming, so we will be in a big shock on food prices soon. However, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent ...
I like NTR. I think they will do well this next year.
brother, its a good pick but its not a great pick right now. Orange man made every farmer panic going into the new year, so they all bought fertilizer early. the earnings were good across the sector, but the next big buy from farmers hasn’t happened yet. if you DCA, i would say its a good time to buy over the course of the summer, but hey, i bought a share of NTR and ENB pre summer and am down 6% in a week so what the fuck do i know
My own IA generated argument: * The market narrative positions MOS as a beneficiary of the shock in the Gulf due to the reduction in the global supply of nutrients. This is a first-order correlation that overlooks the cost structure. Unlike nitrogen fertilizers (where natural gas is the primary input), Mosaic’s potash and phosphate operations rely on energy-intensive mining and a massive global logistics network. Crude oil trading at over $130 per barrel is not a bullish catalyst; it is an operating margin destroyer—a cost that MOS cannot fully pass on to the final price. * The farmer is not an inelastic buyer; faced with rising fertilizer costs and a credit squeeze, he engages in "soil mining" (omitting applications of phosphorus and potassium for one or two cycles). Mosaic—lacking the retail diversification possessed by NTR—is a purely cyclical asset exposed to an immediate contraction in sales volume. Good luck. I'm out
Waiting for NTR to go to $90 heading into planting season
Hows my NTR calls looking on Monday? Is it going to be flat? Maybe its ripping to 90 tomorrow? Thatd be cool
Hows my NTR calls looking for monday? Can this shit just moon already.
Aggressively bought OXY,SLB, BKR, HAL, VG, XOM, MOS, NTR and CF because when you’re down 25K, what else are you gonna do? I doubled down because taco doesn’t matter I have the 403 457 for rational investing https://preview.redd.it/dzn582t1j2ug1.jpeg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9cd84f055b2fa227545d6350e7379b8d86f035de 2k going in tmrw
Oil: OXY, VG, SLB, BKR, XOM Fertilizer: NTR, CF, IPI, MOS
Oxy, xle (etf), LNG, VG, ET.. Also, NTR, CF because I believe fertilizer stocks are setting up for their next leg up. If you haven’t yet, look at how much fertilizer, urea, etc comes out of the Middle East or is transported through that straight. Also, mfg byproducts in petrochemical plants like the one that was bombed again in the UAE
MOS, IPI, NTR CNC, OSCR, MOH Holding plenty of oil already
CDX (hedged junk bonds) EUM (-1x emerging markets) SIVR (bags held from Mexico cartel flare) NTR (fertilizer) TWM (-2x Russell) I expect the green light conversion therapy to continue, this is fine I guess.
I loaded up on NTR, IPI, CF, OXY, BP, SHEL, BPR, VG
Need some quick advice. Does the strait have progress towards opening over the weekend? EU moving to secure it? Iran allowing ships through with a toll fee? Hold NTR over the weekend or sell?
MOS, NTR, CF gonna pump now
USO and NTR is the move
Closed my NTR calls at open, about 80% gain on the volatility. Can't imagine that peak fear is before the market opens ... Mentioned FRPH the other day...they announced a delay in their 10K but preannounced earnings. Stock barely moved, which is probably bullish.
I believe MOS has some other issues right now. The chart is mediocre. NTR had a nice uptrend on place before the war, so I like it a bit more. CF is the most impacted, but IV has gone crazy as people figured it out, so I've been using NTR as a decent proxy. It's only a few days max, since I only went out 3 weeks. Still have June calls on ADM as well.
I lost my shorts buying $MOS. But, I think $NTR is a good gamble as they have been hitting on earnings. I hope the trade works for you as the macro thesis should work. I've decided to buy $CORN and $WEAT instead due to less volatility. ETF's for me over stocks since I think macro more than study individual stock spreadsheets.
Grabbed a few NTR calls for April expiration. It's right at support and if tonight's speech is anything other than "TACO" I think we see fertilizer jump again. Mich lower IV than CF, which has gotten crazy expensive to trade. If not, quick sell if it breaks support.
I've already reduced some AI bets ($AMD, $INTC, $NVDA, $STX) and will buy more energy and fertilizer stocks before the close $BTU and $NTR look reasonable I think coal will do well regardless of what happens in SoH My AI portfolio is still much larger than though
I think I broke Claude with, “What to you see the relative upsides to DBA vs NTR?” crickets….5,4,3,2,1💥
I throw in the towel with my 3Oil last friday, it'll probably go higher but my nerves couldnt take it and i double my money. I have ported it into: Mosaic $MOS - betting fertilizer will go up Nutrien $NTR - betting fertilizer will go up Archer-Daniels-Midland $ADM - Betting food will go up Star Bulk Carries $SBLK - because it sounds like a space ship
Ntr is my number one pick. $CF is very close second tho, read up on it, but they should be less affected by potential nitrogen shortages due to ME war. I think? Or its phosphate/sulfur some compound … $mos is more risky, but also think they are undervalued in general and should hit $30 this year either way. Ntr and cf have held solid institutional volume throughout the past month leading me to believe the are very strong picks. Not FA but yeah. My calls on NTR are up like $3k premarket it appears.
I’m looking at IPI and NTR seems like they ran up like crazy in ‘22, not sure about CF
Something about margins and sulfur. CF or NTR are the better play.
Entire population of Japan NTR'd
Fuck that guy shilling NTR calls
That's what u get for liking NTR
NTR being flat with the closure of the straight of Hormuz has me feeling like a crazy person. Stocks that are a more pure nitrogen fertilizer play like CF are up 35%. Buying calls for after there may earnings.
Why did I close my USO calls and let my NTR calls run instead of the other way around? In fact why didnt I keep them both open damn, anyways NTR taking its sweet ass time.
i am holding these NTR calls with my goddamn life this shit is going to POP when fertilizer shock starts to really kick in, CF already mooned, can go bigger, but NTR hasnt taken off yet, also who wouldnt want to trade a ticker called NTR?? Got me bricked. NTR to the moon
SPY puts sold, picked up TSLA puts instead, letting USO and NTR calls ride.
Alright, im heavily leveraged for iran negotiations to be absolute nothingness and the conflict to shortly resume, the strait to remain closed. SPY puts, USO calls, fertilizers(NTR) calls, and for a little fun we got those BYND calls too.
Oh for sure it is, I’m heavy on NTR and MOS. It’s something at the beginning of the chain that affects the entire food system. Not flashy and people don’t really think about it, but agriculture has been really good to me so far.👌🏻🥂
CF ran up last few days and only backtracked today's massive gains. MOS and NTR are holding just fine after hours. The fertilizer must flow
Stopped options just moved everything into SPXU,NTR and USO. Gonna chill for a week and see how this plays out. Spy acting like a meme stock is pure fuckery.
Yep, MOS and now MOS is rocketing along with NTR and CF. Best part is that this is just getting started.
I think this is the overlooked point w MOS. People buying bc they think it’s the same type of fert stock as CF or NTR but I think they are gonna get hit by this. Dude prob will still print tho lol
I bought NTR on Friday. My bet is that natural gas will be significantly cheaper in North America than elsewhere during the next year or two. I'm by no means a commodities genius, I only just learned that fertilizer is basically made out of natural gas...but NTR is still well below the Ukraine peak, and we might be going back to that level of supply disruption or worse. It could be a long slow uptrend as the situation unfolds; that's why I bought stock and not calls. Good luck to us both.
Yeah but MOS is sus. Why not NTR or CF
CF has solid US exposure, but have you looked at NTR? They're based in Canada but have a big North American footprint and could also benefit if global supply stays tight. Is anyone seeing similar setups in global ag or shipping plays?
Can't wait for the NTR report, and don't forget China had stopped exporting one of the fertilizers, so it was a two-pronged shortage happening.
Its not sleeper, NTR.TO already went to the moon.
NTR is down 13% since Mar 12 so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I was up 8% and now sit down 2%. Bought first week of march.
Fert stocks moved a lot 2ish weeks ago and have come down. Probably still some upside here as the actual supply constraints hit and not just a reactive FOMO/TACO market move like before. The quick money might be done but CF and NTR prob better than MOS shorter term (NFA). I’ve given up trying to trade Iran and just looking to get discounts on stocks I like
Been holding Nutrien ($NTR) since $60 and loving it
I made money on the first move, but I don’t think that was the final move. There had been bullish momentum on CF, NTR, and MOS for several months. The charts show us that. But I believe that was because they were largely ignored and are somewhat of a seasonal sector. IMO, left behind during the AI run in 2024. In times of uncertainty, and war, money moves back into producers, industrials, etc.. I think smart money is building back up. Yes, they ripped briefly but at that time everyone was already saying the “war” would be over in a week. In terms of valuation, they’ve been rerated. I’m in fert, I think this pull back was intentional and needed, but we aren’t going to see the numbers on this sector and the true effect for a bit. Thesis falls apart if they trade down or sideways for the next 30-40days. I think it was a fake out, and I’m pretty sure a long position prints on all three..
I've gone balls deep on NTR and MOS, the problem with MOS is that they require sulphur to process their fertilizer and as such are paying a steep feel. CF and NTR are the better play, having said that MOS has been punished for this and might bounce back.
CF, NTR. UAN and LXU could be big beta players as well.
Nice picks, I hold SOIL, skipped on TNZ and VLE unfortunately. Might still have a lot of upside though. Will look into the sulphur play. Fertilizers took a big hit this week and might be a good entry, NTR/IFOS. Helium is another interesting play. AVN, HEVI, PLSR.
I had RIO also on the list. Along with FANG, NTR, FRO, DHT. I could probably risk it and still try but I'm more mad I pinpointed a few good ones and held back when I should have trusted my gut
Doubling down on MOS, CF, NTR, BNO
Soooo MOS/NTR/CF goes down with oil going up AND down? Lmao
What do people think about fertilizer stocks like MOS and NTR with this war disrupting things?
$CF and $NTR calls as Strait of Hormuz gonna stay closed forever. Fertilizer will become the next bottleneck as we enter farming season. Food prices gonna skyrocket since no one is able to trade. It's not just about oil.
These Fert names... powder keg status again $CF $MOS $IPI $NTR
I think profits were taken and oil dropping dragged them down. Maybe increased shorting. I DCA’d some more and hedged with some short term puts. The reality is the thesis hasn’t changed, and although I haven’t had time to check on the daily news, I don’t believe we’re any closer to a resolution in that strait. If we see a heavier drop this week, I’ll probably cut my losses. NTR, CF, MOS have all had decent runs over the past few months, but I also believe they’re trading below fair value. What I think happens - tute’s buy more now or in the coming days. Retail jumps in as the war lingers, and hopefully I’m right. I’m a bull in general and I’m still long tech and data centers, but I don’t see any rationality in the market today and they can’t ignore the effects on oil as it persists. TLDR still long fert - dca’d until the vibes or situation changes. Hedged w puts and will exit if things jump off a cliff tomorrow.
what do u think now that NTR and MOS have dipped further today?