Reddit Posts
Earnings Plays for the Week of 5-8-2023
Nutrien slides after steep Q4 miss, guides FY 2023 earnings below consensus (NYSE:NTR)
$NTR, $CF, $MOS - AG Fertilizer Bull Market 2007/8 vs 2022
Starving Families, and how to turn them into profit.
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
80% of its fertilizer imports come from Russia, Ukraine…We need American and Canadian producers to rely on now $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Russia's war in Ukraine could lead to a global food crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
Security Council: Food Security | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases $MOS $NTR $CF $IPI $ADM
The banks collapsed in 2008 – and our food system is about to do the same | Food security | The Guardian $MOS $NTR
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Putin’s Black Sea blockade leaves millions facing global famine $MOS $NTR $CF These fertilizer companies need to increase production asap
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Moscow says opening Ukraine ports would need review of sanctions on Russia - Interfax $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Elevated Fertilizer Prices Remain, as UN in Talks to Restore Ukrainian Grain Exports • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Food shortages stemming from Ukraine war has world leaders scrambling $MOS $NTR $CF $ADM $IPI
4,000 pounds of fertilizer spill into river in southwest North Dakota…Guess producers like $MOS $NTR $CF need to react fast and pump at will to save this “Food Crisis”
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
Nations must ‘act together, urgently and with solidarity’ to end crisis of food insecurity $MOS $NTR $CF This “Food Security” is a Global Crisis
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Truckers Video $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…Live Footage From A Trucker $MOS $NTR $CF
The Price Of Fertilizer Is INSANE & It's Hard To Find, So We Are Moving All We Can To Our Local Area…From a truckers view $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank: Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer $MOS $NTR $CF
“Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
"Food security” is a national security. #India now halting wheat and fertilizer already doubled since 2021 we can see American fertilizer stocks reach news high. $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Yellen: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens 'Stagflation,' Hunger “Food Security” is a national security $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
Retail Fertilizer Prices Remain Mostly Higher $MOS $NTR $CF “Winter Storm Brew”
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
India Adds To Food Crisis, Boosting Agricultural, Fertilizer Stocks $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
EU Warns Of Possible Food Crisis Sparked By Russia's War On Ukraine “Winter Storm Brew” $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
Top Fertilizer Maker CF Industries Sees Two Years of High Prices $MOS $NTR $CF
NTR:NYSE NTR:TSE. Ukraine war and fertilizer shortage
Nutrien ($NTR): They help make your food, now they help make you money!
Are Fertilizers and Metals the play this earnings season ?
Why ain't nobody talking about Fertilizers
Costly Fertilizers and Shipping Threaten to Worsen Food Crisis $MOS $NTR $CF
PriceIndex - Green Markets *New Weekly Price Update Comes Out Every Friday* Fertilizer $MOS $NTR $CF
PriceIndex - Green Markets *New Weekly Price* $MOS $NTR $CF Comes Out Every Friday
World Bank warns that higher fertilizer and energy costs pose threat to harvests after global food prices soar by more than a third $MOS $NTR $CF
World Bank warns that higher fertilizer and energy costs pose threat to harvests after global food prices soar by more than a third $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
Loss of fertilizer supplies from Russia feeds food inflation, benefits other producers $MOS $NTR $CF
WATCH NOW: Wisconsin farmer discusses impact of rising fertilizer and gas costs $MOS $NTR $CF
WATCH NOW: Wisconsin farmer discusses impact of rising fertilizer and gas costs $MOS $NTR $CF
Don’t expect the huge rise in food prices to slow anytime soon, Bank of America says- Fertilizer Price Surge $MOS $NTR $CF
Don’t expect the huge rise in food prices to slow anytime soon, Bank of America says- Fertilizer Price Surge $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post* please add if you have more insights 🙏
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post* please add if you have more insights 🙏
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post*
Fertilizer Market- Very Bullish Weekly Prints Coming In $MOS $NTR $CF - *Mini Post*
Phosphate Prices Reach All-Time High in Leading Fertilizer Market Higher $MOS $NTR $CF
10-34-0 is 49% more expensive, MAP is 53% higher, DAP is 68% more expensive, UAN28 is 83% higher, UAN32 is 89% more expensive, urea is 100% is higher, potash is 103% higher and anhydrous is 119% more expensive compared to last year. $MOS $NTR $CF
10-34-0 is 49% more expensive, MAP is 53% higher, DAP is 68% more expensive, UAN28 is 83% higher, UAN32 is 89% more expensive, urea is 100% is higher, potash is 103% higher and anhydrous is 119% more expensive compared to last year. $MOS $NTR $CF
Phosphate Prices Reach All-Time High in Leading Fertilizer Market Higher $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher, as Chinese Soybean Demand Weakens • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Retail Fertilizer Prices Higher, as Chinese Soybean Demand Weakens • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
The ripple effects of the global fertilizer crisis on India $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizers are still cheap. NTR, MOS and CF with 7x to 8x forward P/E and 10% free cash flow yields. Economic moats. Food inflation.
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
Weekly fertilizer prices drop for the first time in three weeks looks like we peaked $MOS $NTR $CF
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
⚠️Weekly Fertilizer Print⚠️ $MOS $CF $NTR #Inflation
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
Yara calls off big Canadian fertilizer expansion $MOS $NTR $CF
DAP Fertilizer Price Index Sets Record at $1,014 Per Ton $MOS $NTR $CF
DAP Fertilizer Price Index Sets Record at $1,014 Per Ton $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizer prices have more than doubled since last year due to Putin’s Fertilizer Halt, a limited supply of the relevant minerals and high energy costs, high global demand and agricultural commodity prices. Also Two European Fertilizer Plamts Are Offline In March! $MOS $NTR $CF
In a world of scarcity, panic-buying of things in short supply, Potash is an essential fertilizer and there's not enough. NTR, MOS, IPI
Fertilizer Price Records Continue, as White House Economist Sees Increased Planting in U.S. • Farm Policy News $MOS $NTR $CF
Yara to cut fertilizer production at two European plants amid rising gas prices #FertilizerSqueeze $MOS $NTR $CF
Fertilizer prices have more than doubled since last year due to Putin’s price hike, a limited supply of the relevant minerals and high energy costs, high global demand and agricultural commodity prices, reliance on fertiliser imports, and lack of competition. $MOS $CF $NTR
Fertilizer price surges 43% to fresh record as supplies tighten $MOS $NTR $CF
Mentions
Bought NTR Calls and IEP Calls. Biggest producers of Urea are Iran, China and India and the biggest exporter in the world is Russia.
I thought the statue is a young girl standing up against NTR, which is pretty heroic, if you ask me.
It's been steady since I got in. Slow, but pretty steady. Wish I'd held on to my NTR. I got out in a do and couldn't afford to get back in
Canadian fertilizer compamy Nutrien ( TSE:NTR ) already up 10% in the last month and 22% in the last 6 months despite trumps tariffs shit on Canada
The act should have been negotiated several times again since it was originally signed by Bill Clinton. And certainly Obama, who said Russia was not a problem to mitt Romney, could have done something to prevent the war in Crimea. The USA needs to decouple itself from China, or become a state of China "The U.S.–China Relations Act of 2000 is an act of the United States Congress that granted China permanent normal trade relations (NTR) status (previously called most favoured nation (MFN)) when China becomes a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), ending annual review and approval of NTR. It was signed into law on October 10, 2000, by United States President Bill Clinton. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93China_Relations_Act_of_2000#:~:text=The%20U.S,Bill%20Clinton.
He who shalt not be named is going to El Salvador so I am looking at CTVA, ADM, NTR, INGR, and KRNT.
CNQ NTR go down tmr and fuck we are chilling need these puts or I behind a dumpster We go
Don't give a crap about NTR being the company being hurt the most by the tariffs, I'm only going puts on this one because it reminds me of netorare and my ex-girlfriend 
Not just metal mining but potash mining is also a sector that's likely to go up with inflation. In particular Nutrien NTR and Mosaic MOS are cheap stocks with lots of upside.
NTR is the big one, same ticker on NY and Toronto. Western resources is another, WRX (heh, Subaru). Most of it gets moved by CP (CPKC now). I live near the mainline coming into Minnesota and I've seen a *whole lot* of pink hopper cars come through the last month or two, so I wonder if they were trying to get ahead of this.
NTR is a good ticker for Canadian potash if anyone’s interested. And no not that NTR…
So is the move buy puts on NTR stock and calls on MOS?
I just got out of QQQ and (mostly) VTI to play it a bit safer since I'm retired. My geographical diversification is 55% US, 15% CAD, 30% global. I'm still in my 40s, so I didn't want to go to bonds for my retirement, since I can rejoin the workforce if shit goes bad (and I'd rather increase my gains more). I don't have any specific questions, but maybe people have some comments. * XEF.TO iSh Core MSCI EAFE IMI Idx ETF 21.07% * VTI Vanguard TSM Idx;ETF 16.94% * HXT.TO GlobalX S&P/TSX 60 Idx Crp 13.79% * SGOV iShares:0-3 Month Trs Bd 11.68% * VDC Vanguard Cnsmr Stp;ETF 9.76% * ZEM.TO BMO MSCI Emerging Mkts Idx ETF 5.66% * GOOGL ALPHABET INC. 5.57% * DIS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 3.39% * BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. 2.58% * V VISA INC. 2.26% * MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION 1.75% * VOO Vanguard 500 Idx;ETF 1.61% * FM iShares:Frtr & S EM 1.28% * AFK VanEck:Africa Index 1.06% * XIC.TO iShrs Core S&P/TSX CC Idx ETF 1.02% * NTR.TO Nutrien Ltd. 0.43% * (blank) CASH 0.15%
ADM, BABA, BIDU, CNC, DG, NKE, NTR, QSR, ULTA.all interesting value picks to look at.
ARM, BA, MSTR, CVE, NTR, MU, MOS, LINR, ASTS buying when red and selling covered calls on good days to enable wsb regards to gamble on calls. 🎰🎰. Basically enabling gambling for regards... Please gamble on my calls
Yeah, besides $DE most agr stocks have been pretty beat up. I own $MOS which reported an earning miss this morning $0.38 vs exp $0.58 and Rev $2.81B vs exp $3.28B. The stocks is down -21% YTD. I also own $NTR and $CNH. As long as grain prices remain underpressure, many agriculture stocks will not do well. However on a short term 3 mo chart $NTR and $MOS appear to have found short term support. $ADM had another accounting error and delayed their earnings call. They had a similar issue a year ago so I'm hesitant about buying that stock right now. But, if you live in the midwest everyone has heard of $ADM because they are the largest grain dealer in the country. Deere & Co reports 11/21 and that would be the agriculture stock to BTD on an earnings miss, IMHO. Tyson Foods $TSN reported an earnings beat this morning of $0.92 vs $0.69 exp and is up 6% in premarket this morning. I
Bought some Nutrien NTR on the dip today, might add some more as price is stabilizing and fertilizer priced can only go up from here.
For a second I thought you were talking about fertilizers like Nutrien NTR or Mosaic MOS... but yeah 🌽 is good too!
Buying MU ARM ASTS BA NTR MOS CVE if red
Buying MU ARM ASTS BA NTR MOS if red
All commodity stocks have been rallying this week. I'm up over 10% this week on $VALE, $MOS, $NTR, $GGB. Now most of these stocks have been dogs all year and vastly underperformed. But China is just doing what the USA has always done. If you have tried everything to save the economy and nothing seems to works than just stimulate by ramping up the currency money printing press,
Buying mu arm Nvidia LUNR asts NTR BA if red
It's late cycle bull market investing. The Fed cuts rates which puts downward pressure on the DXY. Investors rush to buy metals and high dividend paying stocks. Metals because they are priced in USD and begin to appreciate. High dividend stocks start to become more attractive because US 10 year treasury rate yields decline. The idea is to rent these stocks for their move higher before we enter a full blown recession which creates demand destruction. Now $VALE like a lot of commodity mining stocks pays a variable dividend based on annual income. Their next semi-annual dividend will likely be lower than $0.54. So while the $0.54 dividend I will get on Sept 11th is nice, it's not why I am buying more shares. I also opened a position in $NTR which is agriculture miner of Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate. And I also bought more shares of my recently opened position in $OXY. Good Luck.
just sold all my Nvidia after closing calls as seems like it will likely drop to the low 90s or high 80s before earnings. Will add small quantities to ARM and NTR if either red tomorrow. Nvidia could have baggies for a year or more if the results are not good as it will tank to high 40s after neutral results if not market beating...
added small amount of ARM and NTR... sold all my Nvidia after closing my covered calls.
Nvidia, ARM, NTR, MOS, SPY 650 DEC... buying if either red
Nvidia, ARM, NTR and spy September 575 are the only ones that matter to me for now... will buy either if red.
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR and spy September 750 if either red
Nvidia, ARM, NTR and spy September 575 are hot
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR and spy 575 September
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR and SPY 575 September if red
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR and SPY 575 September if red
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR and SPY 575 September if red
buying more Nvidia, ARM, spy, NTR if red
buying Nvidia, ARM, NTR, BNS and spy 750 June 2025 if red
buying Nvidia, ARM and holding NTR, BNS, SPY 750 June 2025
Nvidia, ARM, NTR, BNS and SPY 750 June 2025
Nvidia, ARM, NTR, BNS buying if red... I buy anywhere from 1 share to 10 shares depending on the drop and sell covered calls when prices are high and good premiums are reached
Nvidia, ARM and NTR
buying Nvidia, NTR and ARM if red
NTR... possible $60+ by end of month
The problem is that they have no idea what things are worth. Plenty of good companies out there and hardly anything looks priced like it's worth buying. Bought some NTR today and added to my SPXS position but it's definitely a game of patience currently.
$LW and $NTR ​ 125 shares of each today
>Wife bought $NTR Uh oh
NTR… nice! Anyone into JAV?
🌈🐻? Have you heard of NTR? It suits you
anybody in NTR? thinking of leaps.
>Look at MOS and NTR’s 2022E forward P/E in high single digits and try again to tell me it’s all priced in. lol ok now you try again and tell me how it wasn't all priced in. You made this post at the top of the cycle on all these companies.. Should have listened to me, well played.
You're right about fertilizer companies benefiting because nat gas is a big part of their cost basis. Nutrien (NTR) is the play imo.
I have MOS $30 , NTR $50 both expiring march 15
No one cares about this on D Day but NTR and MOS puts are free
NTR looks a little more favorable based on pe and does better EV and mkt cap
From the Nice Terrace Region or NTR for short.
Investing in commodities can be tricky. I believe we are in a long term commodity supercycle. However, there can be boom & bust periods within this potential commodity supercycle. Especially if the world goes thru a global recession and demand falls off a cliff. Of course a commodity bust cycle would just limit the future commodity supply & investments and make commodity markets in the future even tighter than it is today. Just look at what is happening with Crude Oil after 20 plus years of underinvestment. I think it is important to buy the largest & best performing commodity producing stocks in each class over some of the junior, or small caps. Yeah, the upside might lower, but you have to worry about some junior minors having a potentially liquidity crisis if we go thru a short term commodity bust. I tend to look more at technicals. If certain stocks are closer to their long term 200 DMA on the 5 year charts; I am more inclined to buy more shares there rather than some commodity stocks trading near 52 week highs as I try and mitigate some long term downside risks. I like the long term demand for copper for example. But if $FCX is trading at a forward P/E of 21 and the stock is trading above it's long term 20,50,100. & 200 DMA and copper futures are falling, I am not buying copper miners. I personally think this is a better time to buy $NTR and $MOS which are both trying to find support on their long term 200 DMA's. $MOS forward P/E is 10 for example. I also like buying $GOLD or $NEW. $GOLD forward P/E is 15, which is cheaper than $FCX 21. Does that mean I think Barrick is a better miner than Freeport? No, but I am looking at which stock is cheaper on a 5 year timeframe. I recently sold out of $FCX and put that cash into $GOLD. I will start buying $FCX shares if it falls closer to $30. But I have a limited amount of funds to buy stocks, so I prefer holding value. $CLF is another stock that looks very cheap right now on a forward P/E projection. Alcoa is interesting as well as no one is talking about Aluminum right now, but that could change. No one was talking about copper 3 years ago. Now if commodity prices go thru a short term bust than all of these stocks will fall much further than many can imagine. I do think it is a good idea to take profits and sell a percentage of each holding when they are running higher, thou.
I find a screener is a good start but I want to do a bit more in-depth so I plug them into a spreadsheet. Just works for me. Do you have thresholds you suggest on the metrics? I'm happy to hear what you/others generally go by. Definitely want to avoid value traps. When I screen stocks I generally try to go for the highest market cap I can which is usually $10-30B, so big mid-cap/small large-cap. I've found DINO which I'm up 13% on, VTRS (owns a bunch of brands - Viagra, Xanax, Lipitor - yes I'm a bad person), NTR (Canadian fertilizer company - Largest potash and 3rd largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in the world), KT (2nd largest South Korean telecom company I think - so reasonably large companies. I try to avoid the value traps that way. We'll see how that turns out...
I'm just looking at the charts. I maybe wrong. I would suggest watching 2 stocks that I do not own in $AA and $NTR. Again I don't own these stocks so I can't be accused of trying to pump them here like my positions in $MOS and $GOLD; but Alcoa and Nutrien look more intriguing to me long term than $FCX. Now Alcoa needs to find a bottom first and $NTR needs to close above it's long term 200 DMA otherwise I'd prolyl be better to just buy $MOS.
Nutrien $NTR is an interesting stock currently trading just below it's long term 200 DMA. I own quite a large position in one of their competitors in Mosaic $MOS which is trading above it's long term 200 DMA and is up 2% today. I might need to consider buying $NTR next week over buying more $MOS. Just throwing out oversold stocks in other sectors other than tech for people to consider if they also believe we maybe going thru a market rotation.
I'm up about 20% on NTR and UAL but keep in mind, historical performance is not an indication of future performance!
Just catching up now, but apparently the entire energy complex is mooning today because workers at an Australian LNG export plant went on strike. This caused European natural gas (TTF) to move up 30% in a single day, because less Australian LNG availability means China will be using up more of the LNG that Europe would be bidding for. US gas rose 6%. As a ripple effect, this then caused coal stocks (particularly thermal coal) to bounce. European natural gas spiking likely helped nitrogen fertilizer stocks because it makes US gas more competitive (natural gas is an input for nitrogen fertilizer). That's why it is CF moving up dramatically today and not as much MOS/NTR. [I thought it was all just due to wheat/rice prices spiking but that's sort of an indirect relationship to fertilizer stocks] Part of this is just traders causing more volatility in the market. But it also shows how fragile the global energy markets--it just takes one major fire, labor strike, train derailment, and prices can zoom up. All of this is *despite* China experiencing deflation and massive drops in exports/imports. That's why commodities like say copper didn't moon. Today's commodity trade is all about food and energy, not infrastructure.
Another decent day for agriculture. $DE and $ADM are up 1.5%. $MOS and $NTR are up 2%. The EFT $MOO looks like it's breaking above it's long term 50 DMA of $86.20.
Sorry, I meant NTR hentai.
Today is a nice day for $MOS. It will be interesting to see $NTR and $CF earnings after close. $BG is up 5%. $DE, $ADM, and $AGCO are basically flat. Money seems to be flowing into agriculture stocks.
NTR, I am an investor. Great company
on the one hand, CF/MOS/NTR are relatively low compared to where they were in the past year or two and this war is dragging out quite a bit, affecting supplies from two of the biggest non-american suppliers of fertilisers on the other hand, NTR/MOS/CF have this bad habit of completely fucking people by dumping 10-15% just ... because and on the other hand, zoom out to the 5-10 year chart. suddenly they don't look so cheap, and we're peak of cycle with an expensive dollar - that makes US crops expensive , that means farmers 'make do' without fertilisers and reduce output.
NCLH ITM calls… hoping for a good er in the morning. Sold my weat since it’s drilling Need to decide if I sell my CF/MOS/NTR calls tomorrow before ERs or hold through weds…
It would be nice if the oil stocks ever had a pullback so I could buy back in. Or a pullback in either $NTR or $MOS to add there. I just added to $CLF during this pullback. I will wait until J-Pow's Come to Jesus speech later today to dump the rest of my payday contributions into this casino.
CHD, ABBV, TSLA, WEAT shares. Short/medium dated calls on NTR, CF, MOS, LVS. LEAPS calls on GOEV.
Anyone else here playing WEAT or related AG stocks? Started adding WEAT last Monday and post-er dated calls on CF, NTR, and MOS Tuesday. Didn’t add more today but if there is a red or flat day this week (outside any news of a grain deal with Russia) I’ll probably add more of everything.
Had a good day with a healthy serving of humble pie. My LMT trade did not work out... closed my calls at about a 6k loss. That being said bought calls in XOM, NTR last week and am still sitting on doubles for SLG. Still think it all depends on MSFT... for tech to continue to rally.
You should NTR your neighbor
So most probably know this already but Russia has backed out of the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine. This means that successful Ukrainian grain shipments to North Africa and the ME are dubious at best. Russia hopes to cause social unrest in these areas and flood Western Europe with refugees. Inflation from rising food costs will also hurt Western economic recovery. What is new is that Russia is attacking Ukrainian ports with vigor... namely Odessa. I think the Agi sector could really catch a bump from this. MOS, NTR, ADM, BG could be some ways to play this new geo political twist.
Yes, $CF has done quite well. There are several things: 1. Russian grain deal not getting renewed 2. Drought conditions in the US Midwest, meaning lower crop output 3. Potash output being restricted by port strike in Canada (affecting MOS/NTR) As a result, wheat/corn/etc. along with fertilizers are trading up. But I think it's a bit odd: 1. The Canadian port issues should block MOS exports, hurting the company even as it restricts supply 2. Yes, drought is pushing up crop prices, but in theory, I think this should reduce demand for nitrogen fertilizer, right? (Help me out here) I thought I read somewhere that in drought conditions, it makes less economic sense to apply nitrogen fertilizer (like in post-planting), and instead wait for the next cycle and prioritize the good land. However, maybe for potash this makes more sense by helping water retention. So my takeaway is that fertilizer stocks are just moving on market correlations, and nothing really fundamental has changed in the fertilizer markets. Well, you could argue they are cheap and always has been, so it is correct for them to trade up, but I'm saying these particular news events are not bullish directly for fertilizer companies. I think it's just factors trading together.
NTR looks like a great buy right now. P/E under 10, P/B and P/S under 1. Dividend over 4%
Zuck talking some mom-NTR shit after Elon called him a cuck would be highly ironic. *"Call the vanilla police, BUT NOT FOR ME!"*
Because I am bullish and bought what I thought was the bottom 2 weeks ago. Wheat futures are also down pretty big today. [https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/06/dtn-fertilizer-prices-continued-the-trend-of-moving-lower/](https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/06/dtn-fertilizer-prices-continued-the-trend-of-moving-lower/) “Six of the eight major fertilizers were less expensive compared to last month. “Anhydrous was 13% lower compared to the prior month, and the nitrogen fertilizer had an average price of $781 per ton. UAN32 was 8% less expensive than last month with an average price of $476/ton. “Just two fertilizers were slightly more expensive compared to a month ago. MAP had an average price of $823/ton, while urea was at $624/ton.” UAN and liquid nitrogen are $CF MAP and DAP fertilizer use phosphates. This is more $MOS and $NTR although those 2 also sell a lot of potash.
According to [Fbindex](https://fbindex.se), they have a current 87% NAV discount and that's pretty big even for real estate companies. The EPRA Earnings (net rental income after taxes) is 0,32 per stock so "P/E" is equal to 3,288/0,32= 10.275. Not that great nowadays. But was awesome a few years ago. **EPRA earnings per stock for the past 5 years:** 2022: 0,32 2021: 1,63 2020: 1,29 2019: 0,33 2018: 0,22 **EPRA NTR (The tangible assets) per stock:** 2022: 27,28 2021: 39,52 2020: 22,36 2019: 14,45 2018: 11,55 2017: 9,65
Yes, beef prices are moving higher; however pork prices are moving lower. You could look at beef packing house stocks like Tyson Foods. However they are also in poultry & pork. I would look at $ADM. If beef prices rise; than the grains will rise too as the demand will be there for feed. $NTR, $MOS, or $CF for fertilizer. $ADM and $TSN are prolyl the easiest stocks to invest in if you are bullish on beef prices rising.
$CF and $NTR are great stocks to buy as well. I have just done more research into Mosaic and like that they are diversified and their revenues are close to 1/3 of each Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. Also the Phosphate fertilizer price has stabilized a bit earlier than the price of potash and anhydrous fertilizers. They are all going to move in the same direction though.
I took a capital gains loss and sold out of $IPI over 2 months ago. I did unfortunately put over half of that cash into $MOS at about a 25% premium to today's prices. Phosphate prices have bottomed before potash prices have. Mosaic is more diversified that $IPI as their revenue comes from Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes and not just potash. $NTR would also be a good diversified choice. I like $CLF over $X since Cleveland -Cliffs also owns/produces from 6 iron ore mines b/w Michigan & Minnesota. $X doesn't own any iron ore mines that I am aware of. While cheap iron ore prices are a benefit for $X over $CLF now; we aren't always going to have low iron ore input prices. With that said; I have decided to go with International Paper tomorrow as a buy over Cleveland-Cliffs. The current market cap of both is pretty similar $7B vs $10B. I think paper/cardboard for shipping may rebound before the commodity prices for iron ore & steel. And I work for a company that is a shipping partner for $IP. Their revenue is prolly down per volume sold; but volume shipped is still fairly strong.
I don't know what kind of goals you are looking for, but there are lots of different ways you could go with this. Cyclical commodity stocks are down. Oil and gas, fertilizer stocks, mining, and other asset heavy stocks are in the tubes. I am still losing a bunch of money on the ones I bought recently, but companies like $XOM, $CVE, $NTR, $MOS, and $VALE, aren't going out of business. They may not have the highest growth potential though. I would recommend having a few defensive stocks, just as a hedge. If you want other tech growth stocks, I recently picked up a bunch of UBER, ABNB, and SOFI.
Ah yes, but Zeiss workers can't work without food. And food can't be grown without fertilizer. Time to go long $NTR! seriously though. While Zeiss is relatively cheap compared to the past few years of price history, it's PER is like 35x, and profits are set to drop this year.
I think energy stocks are beaten down. Some obvious names to look at are $XOM, $CVE, and $VLO though you could probably find plenty of others. Same thing with fertilizer stocks. $MOS, $ANDE, and $NTR would be good to check out. Though the industry as a whole is down because commodities are down.
Final analysis on this week's ER's. I added a few more to the table for a post-mortem perspective. The last 2 columns compare the maximum move after earnings and in either direction the underlying made. The underlying's that were not profitable on both a weekly or intraday perspective was (not profitable): \- JD \- FSR The underlying's that were profitable on both a weekly and intraday perspective was (profitable): \- NVAX The remaining underlying's, had the potential to be profitable, just depending on if you sold it at the proper time. About 80% of the underlying's, that were examined would have been a profitable or breakeven trade. ​ |Ticker|Implied Move|Week % Change|Intraday Post ER Max Upside Move|Intraday Post ER Max Downside Move| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |U|14.5%|\+12.21%|\+23.89%|\+12.06%| |ABNB|8.80%|\-12.68%|\-03.66%|\-13.09%| |DVN|5.69%|\-05.88%|\-04.07%|\-06.71%| |UAA|11.40%|\-12.04%|\-07.41%|\-13.19%| |RBLX|12.40%|\+12.13%|\+18.74%|\+10.33%| |JD|8.97%|\-01.31%|\+05.69%|\-02.12%| |NTR|5.53%|\-07.92%|\-04.60%|\-09.39%| |NVAX|23.00%|\+09.87%|\+47.27%|\+09.09%| |PLTR|13.70%|\+28.51%|\+39.19%|\+28.38%| |FSR|19.77%|\-03.33%|\+01.59%|\-07.30%| |UPST|24.00|\+23.79%|\+48.79%|\+21.22%|
NTR downgrade hit MOS pretty hard, looks like weak guidance on potash. I hold CF since it benefits from low natural gas prices and nitrogen seems to have a brighter supply/demand balance than potash. Especially since you can't not use nitrogen but potash application can be delayed.
Just picked up NTR calls $67, wish me luck
You have calls on NTR, bro?