QQQ

mike_from_here

Sorry boys I bought 0.5 shares of QQQ triggered this whole thing

dinglebarryb0nds

Lot of people trade SPX and NDX but then you are still dealing with volatility and theta. The beauty in futures is trading with hot keys and no slippage and only worrying about price levels and theta awesome liquidity You don’t need a lot of money in a futures account like a real brokerage. Like margins for NQ which is like trading 400k worth of QQQ, only requires about two thousand dollars in your account lol. I mean you shouldn’t do it because it can literally disapear in a minute but they will let you do it So if you wanna be trading like 400 thousand worth of QQQ, just put 10k in your account. Personally i trade 12 MNQ, i enter and exit 3 contracts at a time for 4 tranches and that’s a nice size. Any more gets pretty crazy but 12 is plenty to make some money Basically 200 to 1 leverage or so, aka you don’t need much money in there

Sweaty_Platypus69

QQQ only down a mere -1.6%.. like really? These AI data centers need a lot of electricity and energy. And where do these come from? Oil no?

Prestigious_Suit_202

QQQ is stored in the urethra

RemoteFlatworm1

I’ve been doing something similar. I hold a lot of tech, so earlier in February I bought some QQQ puts as a hedge. What pushed me to do it was seeing hedge pressure and volatility signals start picking up across multiple indicators. I’ve found that relying on VIX alone will miss the bigger picture. I track many different data sets together on a small dashboard I built (hedgehawk.net), and when they started rising it seemed like a good time to add some downside protection. This saves me money from being hedged all year long.

Several_Bread_9144

QQQ at 593

OpporTen

Moving away from high fee managed accounts is the right call, here’s my honest take on each question. Lump sum vs DCA Statistically lump sum beats DCA about two thirds of the time because markets go up more than they go down. But here’s the thing, US stocks are expensive right now by almost every valuation measure. Not crash-level scary but definitely not cheap. So personally I’d split the difference, deploy maybe half now and spread the rest over three to six months. Not pure market timing, just not betting everything at a historically stretched valuation. ETFs vs individual stocks Honestly keep it mostly ETFs. The trap people fall into is buying names they recognise that have pulled back, thinking they’re getting a deal. A lower price isn’t a bargain unless you actually know what the business is worth. If you want to allocate maybe 15% to individual stocks go for it, but only in businesses you’ve actually researched properly, not just names you’ve heard of. Also watch out with QQQ, it’s basically a leveraged tech bet. If you want real diversification look at a global ETF and consider mixing in some international or emerging market exposure, valuations outside the US are dramatically cheaper right now.

looool_k_libtard

Really excited for-23% QQQ futures at 6 pm. Tech bulls have never made any money in their lives.

Specialist_Exam_8433

Fuck it, let's ball. QQQ 650C for mid-May after tech earnings in late April/early May.

ExoticDaikon1872

QQQ futes predictions ?

CriticalBlackberry90

Agreed, we bottomed the day of AMZN earnings where we went from -1% to +2% on QQQ the day after

edoceo

This is fun and all but you've not provided any definition of what you think the crash is. Do you mean 5% drop over the week? Which symbol(s) are you watching? What if DJIA is down 5% on the week (from Monday open or last Friday close?) and QQQ is only down 4%? Is that a crash? You should be very specific, otherwise it looks like you're just engagement farming. Try something like: If RUT is <$2272.50 by Friday close I'll send the rando $2k /djb

Old_Divide6104

Not really. The best thing to do is trade these options on QQQ. The volatility brings in the money if you’re on the right side and you know what you’re doing.

jazzyjjcups

Why are we stopping at the 5-10 year period? Let's examine how QQQ didn't recover from its peak in 2000 until 2018 on a nominal basis.

ben1492

The hyperliquid QQQ equivalent is down > 1% while the IG weekend tech 100 is down 0.67%. AI says hyperliquid is a better indicator of actual market open. I guess none of it really matters by 9:31AM but at least it’s some moving numbers on the weekend. I really need moving numbers.

No-Improvement3164

I didn’t. I’m probably going to be a proud owner of QQQ 10% lower.

Kelso241

Definitely following this. I sell a lot of credit spreads too, though I tend to focus on 1 DTE and even 0 DTE SPX or NDX. Been experimenting with hedges using futures, SPY/QQQ, etc. Would love to learn more about your hedging strategy.

Etheriales

Usually the expected resistance/support for the day. I also try to identify if a range forms early in the day and will keep trading between the local mins and maxs. I noticed that a big dip or rally usually happens between 12-1 (at least this past week), so I stop trading there because there’s a good chance SPY or QQQ breaks out of the range I was taking advantage of

Wowmuchrya

Anything can happen, but realize the outcome with the most common sense is usually the one that happens. The chart looks identical to last years and I think that will have some psychological impacts on people to sell down into early April. If you’re a long term investor and dont need the money immediately then yes the mag7 are trading at historically low pe’s. I just think/know that if SPY/QQQ drop another 10% not even great companies will be immune. I’m not trying to convince you of anything, follow your own thesis.

FrostyCartoonist8523

# Gemini said Your analysis is a textbook study of **market contagion** and **liquidity traps**. You are essentially describing the "Minsky Moment"—the point where over-extended investors are forced to sell even good assets to cover losses, leading to a self-sustaining collapse. While "old and crusty" investors will indeed recognize the 1999–2000 parallels, there are some nuanced differences in today's plumbing that either validate or slightly complicate your math. # 1. Validating the "Trigger" Mechanism Your assessment of the **VC-led rug pull** is logically sound. In venture capital, there is a phenomenon called "Flight to Quality." * **The Chain Reaction:** When the first major "AI Unicorn" fails to raise a down-round, it sets a new benchmark for valuations. VCs don't just stop funding the "weakest" firm; they immediately re-calculate the Terminal Value of their *entire* portfolio. * **The "Short" Incentive:** While a VC firm shorting the market to hedge their own failing portfolio is technically a conflict of interest (and potentially a violation of fiduciary duty to their LPs), **insiders** and **hedge funds** with cross-exposure absolutely do this. # 2. Comparing the "Burn" (2000 vs. 2026) You asked: *How long can fresh cash sustain the burn rate?* * **The Dot-Com Era:** Companies were burning cash on marketing (Super Bowl ads) and basic infrastructure. When the cash ran out, the value was zero. * **The AI Era:** Companies are burning cash on **Compute (GPUs)**. * *The Twist:* If an AI startup goes bust, their primary "asset" is their reserved compute or hardware. If everyone goes bust at once, the secondary market for GPUs craters, dragging down the "picks and shovels" companies (like NVIDIA) faster than the software firms. # 3. The Probability Math (Expected Value) Your indifferent probability calculation is a great way to strip emotion out of "stonks." EV=(Pgain​×Rgain​)+(Ploss​×Rloss​) Using your numbers: * If you need to beat a **3.6% Treasury yield**, and a crash (−50%) is a 25% possibility, the "up" scenario (+20%) results in an EV of 2.5%. * **Verdict:** You are mathematically correct to prefer Treasuries here. The "Risk Premium" (the extra return you get for taking the risk) is actually **negative** in your scenario (2.5%−3.6%=−1.1%). You aren't being paid to take the risk. # 4. Nuance: The "Big Tech" Firewall The biggest difference between now and 2000 is **Cash Flow**. * In 1999, many leaders were pre-profit. * In 2026, the "Big 7" are essentially sovereign-wealth-sized entities with massive buyback programs. **The Risk:** Even if Big Tech stays profitable, your scenario holds true because of **Multiple Compression**. If the market decides AI is a "bust," Microsoft's P/E ratio could drop from 35x to 15x, even if their earnings stay flat. That is where your −50% scenario lives. # Analysis of Your Positions * **Swiss Francs ($CHF):** A classic "flight to safety" currency. It de-correlates from the USD/Euro-centric tech collapse. * **Gold ETFs (IAU, SGOL):** If the Fed reacts to your "Scenario B" by printing money to save the banking system (again), gold is your hedge against the resulting debasement. * **Hedged Options (QQQ/IWM):** This is the smartest part of your play. By "setting a floor," you change your EV calculation because your Rloss​ is capped (e.g., instead of −50%, it's capped at the cost of the put premiums). # Summary Your scenario is highly plausible. The "AI Winter" usually follows an "AI Summer" not because the tech stops working, but because the **Return on Investment (ROI)** takes longer to manifest than the **Burn Rate** allows.

katrav86

bought QQQ in Nov still no lambo :(

Gambled4MyRangeRover

How we feeling about QQQ next week 

I_am_Nerman

I didn't get gas but I bought USO, VIX calls & SPY, QQQ puts. For some reason, people still want to believe "nothing ever happens" even after liberation day.

Good_Ride_2508

Never trade, have nice plans with VOO and QQQ.

Snoo_94511

I do VOO and QQQ in the ROTH, but want to learn more and expand my skill and knowledge.

450BrapBrap

Appreciate the data. Pretty interesting. Have you tried this with QQQ ?

EntrepreneurOld7858

Guys I need help QQQ is down 5% from ATH. Is this the sign of the apocalypse? Will we EVER recover? Yes this is my first year trading, how could you tell?

DiamondG331

I completely adjusted all of my positions so I have SPY 3/10, 3/11, 3/16. IWM 3/11, DIA 3/13. About 15-20 on each. Rolled my short calls strike from around $696 to $689 and short puts from $673 to $662. Had to adjust more this week than previous weeks but still no losses. Recovery periods where the underlying will blow through your short calls are more likely than declines. I lost a lot last year on QQQ, just kept going up and I was mostly only trading credit spreads not condors. If you setup 3-5dte condors and expect to roll in a day or two even for small profits it will work almost always. Don’t hold until expiration, and don’t get greedy with 0-1dte options.

TheAncient1sAnd0s

It's just a dead Iraqi schoolgirl bounce. /s For those who don't know (probably 75% of this sub) a dead-cat bounce is when a downtrend temporarily reverses course. The downtrend you should be seeing is American stocks (SPY, QQQ) versus foreign stocks (VXUS, CQQQ) ever since Nov 2024.

ihopethisworksfornow

I’m not “posting propaganda” I’m fucking old and this is like the 5th god damn invasion of the Middle East in my lifetime and it’s always fucking pointless and extremely expensive, and I wouldn’t even really give a shit about this one if we weren’t already in a fragile economic situation. It took us 20 god damn years to make Iraq *kind of not fucked*. Iraq is fuckin half the size of Iran. I’m sick of being called some far left libtard bot because I think mango is a fat dumpy fucking moron. I’m holding puts. Eat my cock bulls. QQQ to 560 oil to 150.

Any_Deal_5771

I've been making 10% for 1 week so far. And yes, I use TA only. I only buy QQQ Odte options. I have been daytrading for over 5 years and made $100k and lost $100k and more so I have been so called " learning or earning my tuition" to get to this point. The saying bulls and bears make money but pigs get slaughtered is so true. Once I hit my 10% goal whether I do it in 10m or 5 hours I stop trading. I will have $20k next week and plan to make $2k per day.

No-Improvement3164

I’m Jones’N to sell some of these juicy put premiums on QQQ but I don’t want to own shares.

No-Improvement3164

QQQ 560 by 3/20?

meatsmoothie82

Jobs are bearish. Stonks always go up when the plebes get fired. I thought this is the entire bull case for AI and why it’s not a bubble, and 90% of the market is AI now. Staggering job losses plus inflation (due to oil prices spiking because of a totally unavoidable and absolutely necessary super important biblical crusade to light the torch of Armageddon in Iran)= Quantitative Gooning… I mean, easing. We just need a little bit of panic, down to QQQ $514 the \*technical\* bear market level and then the printer will fire up so the supreme leader doesn’t crash out and drone strike Wall Street. QE BABY! BRRRR….. QQQ 514 and I’m buying 450 strike leaps and riding them to QQQ $1000. That is, if I don’t go broke before then trying to buy the dip, then short the dip then buy the rip then short the dip. \[Warning: this is not financial advice, this is the ramblings of arguably the worst trader to have ever existed. I am Gloglat, the wealth destroying demon, follow me at your peril\]

dkrich

I think you’re already seeing it. ROBO and of course NVDA are proxies for the AI trade and they both rolled over pretty hard last week while software caught a bid. Late cycle behavior imo. I like the options bet against the QQQs as I believe the next logical extension of this is that “oh fuck the hyperscalers really did incinerate hundreds of billions of dollars.” I’ve got a sizable QQQ put position too.

No-Improvement3164

What’s the chances SPY and QQQ test the April lows from last year?

Iamironpann

What kind of dates go on these puts. considering it’s so hard to get the timing for the drop in QQQ even though we’re all reasonably certain it’s going to correct in the near/mid term?

HistoricalComeBack

I would agree…. Maybe USO puts in 3/4 weeks time…. But premiums will be through the roof Or maybe just QQQ calls …..

Sweaty_Platypus69

I go conservative.. SPY will only drop -8% for the year.. QQQ? Yea.. -15% is not too far fetched.. BAG 7 is the theme for 2026.

hepukesyoudie

Love him or hate him, admit that prez is a total narcissist. He cares most for himself and popularity. A drawn out war does nothing for him, which is why he will taco… within a few weeks if not days. So what is the best fucking play here? Short oil if you got the minerals and exceptional timing. What’s the best long term, beaten down stock that will absolutely rip? QQQ seems to be the best option… maybe

Specialist_Exam_8433

The market bottom was the day we ripped from -1% to +2% on QQQ the day before/after AMZN earnings. MSFT is also showing signs of a bottom. We only go up from here.

TomatoSpecialist6879

When in doubt, just buy SPY and QQQ leaps. Never be impatient, never let missed gains affect you, and never play alternative stocks. People playing BULL were looking for another HOOD miracle, you're years away from BULL pulling a HOOD level run up. If you believe in it, buy leaps. CHWY on the other hand is a stagnant company, no idea why you played it except if you mistaken p&d bots here as real people. Warsh is the only retard who thought rates weren't high enough during the GFC back in 2008, he either sold his soul or he's about to pull off a heist to secure the Fed chair then go back to being a full inflation hawk. Unless you're a ber, pray it's the first one.

greyenlightenment

lol QQQ is only down $7 from last week and ppl already taking about ww3

AfraidAnalyst

Some regard in the daily said inflows into QQQ, expect it to jump up. I blindly tossed in 602c’s. It was not skill, it was a regarded move that worked FYI

II2-Woolly

My QQQ puts are gonna print over the weekend

greyenlightenment

lol QQQ down only $7 from last Friday's close to now

AfraidAnalyst

Only way to lose money is to not play both sides. Even on a day like today I made 50% gain on QQQ 602c’s in 15 minutes

AfraidAnalyst

Revenge traded today, lost on the overnight calls. Lost on SPX. Made it all back on that mid afternoon QQQ pump and the following spy dump. It’s been a wild week of trying calls and losing only to get it all back on puts and then some

NaiveMercury

QQQ flat in 6 months with 2 insane growth quarters is concerning

Odd-Block-2998

QQQ back to below $600. Theta gang eating good!

sport912x

Pretty Pictures, but Terrible Leverage. You do realize that a CSP requires 100% of the Strike to zero total cash, while a Naked Put in an approved account requires less than 20% on most days. So a 555 QQQ Put requires 55,500 as a CSP, but only 7k in a Margin Account, with another 5/6k as backup Buying Power. Buying Power an unknown term? No not Margin , no interest. Here is the founder of Tasty. [https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba](https://ontt.tv/3jAf4Ba) Buying Power Factors Oct 28, 2020 STOCKLESS TRADING [https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020](https://www.tastylive.com/shows/tasty-extras/episodes/a-refresher-on-bpr-06-29-2020)

Cold_Respond_7656

Surprising difference between QQQ & Nvidia

looool_k_libtard

Technology is dead, mag 7 are dead. You have one chance now to sell before QQQ hits $200 this year. Complete catastrophe as the US economy dissolves into nothing.

NotMe357

Lets see if the market can close above these price again. SPX 6800, SPY 680$ and QQQ 600. If they can close above that price again today, then I'm 99% sure we're ready to test SPX +6900$ again next week. Probably after CPI. TACO wants to take over Venezuela and Iran for the oil to force China buying Boeing Aircraft and Soya Beans again. Today China say that they're in talk with Boeing again so I think it wouldnt be long before we'll hear about China wants to buy more US Soya Beans. TACO will meet XI in China at the end of March or early April.

AluminiumCaffeine

Delta on QQQ and IGV today pretty interesting, could be short covering in SAAS but still fun to see

Sweaty_Platypus69

SPY should be -0.75% while QQQ should be -1.2%.. not the other way round!

No-Improvement3164

Why is the 3/20 QQQ 560 gaining twice as much as the 570?

hioman01

Does QQQ include chip stocks? Their charts are completely different.

No-Improvement3164

Inverted H&S on QQQ

whydouhatemecablegod

i am from the future, QQQ will close 605.63.. i was sent to deliver this message

MarkFromPublic

It depends on the name and the setup but I lean ATM or just slightly OTM most of the time. The spread cost on illiquid OTM strikes eats into your edge fast when you're scalping, and if you're in and out quickly you need that tight bid-ask more than you need the extra gamma. That said, in something super liquid like SPY or QQQ where the OTM spreads are still a penny or two wide, going slightly OTM for that gamma kick makes more sense. You're not giving up much on the spread and the percentage moves are bigger on a directional pop.

Jolly_Minimum_5179

Yeah the funny thing is I can trade super risky options, even naked call QQQ or whatever but can't actually trade the stock itself. Think that one has to do with EU (and maybe national) regulation.  Either way, I was really surprised by how easy it is to enable this type of trading.

FuckingJPMAlgos

Sunday evening headlines - US and Iran discussing path to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. QQQ +5% Monday.

Sweaty_Platypus69

Oil trading at $90 yet SPY is down barely 1% and QQQ not even 1%.. yea market is remarkably resilient.

visagedemort

Hello everyone! Recently I turned 23 and I have decided that it is time to get myself into investing (could have earlier but I would say it is still early) as having money sitting on the bank that I do not use and inflation grows is not ideal. I have opened an account with IBKR and I live in Europe (and will also be travelling to a different country from where I currently live but still in Europe) and thus I do not have direct access to ETFs such as SP500 etc etc I will be investing around 3-4k for a start, and as much money as I can monthly, but at the start of the next year I will get access to around 12-15k more which will also be invested into my portfolio. I did a little bit of research and I have decided that I prefer not go with a single global broad market ETF as I would like to have a bit more control where I invest my money as the months/years come by. And thus by going through ETFs, different posts and videos collecting information I have decided to go with one of these portofolios: **Portfolio 1:** **Value: IWVL (VTV) | Dividend: VHYL (VYM) | Growth IWQU (US: QUAL) - CNDX (US: QQQ)** Portfolio 2 Value: IEVL (US: EFV) and ZPRV (US: VBR) | Dividend: FUSD (US: SCHD) | Growth: CNDX (US: QQQ) As I am not that experienced yet, I will be looking into your feedback and insights!

borrokalaria

https://preview.redd.it/gqmsjb30wgng1.png?width=570&format=png&auto=webp&s=224f0760bdd5ddb47b3b8fc804130f091f00817e The market must be doing great, as the last 15 trading days of QQQ have 13 green candles on the daily.

AlphaHarmony

QQQ $608.50 incoming

AfraidAnalyst

Made back my losses on the overnight calls. Thank you for that pump QQQ

PNWPlayZ

QQQ just needs to break 606 for me to irrationally buy more calls

indyyo1

!banbet QQQ 600 3h

CriticalBlackberry90

Same thing as yesterday massive Shrek candle into close with QQQ finishing green

DeltaP2SavetheE

Apparently there is infinite appetite for QQQ today

No_Tough_2065

Man QQQ wants to Shrek so bad but something beating it down like an abused chia pet

The_Brem

for the last 6 months the QQQ is flat. obviously buying the dip is no longer a winning trade

GreyMatter22

USO calls $108s for next week. They move much faster than QQQ puts, so might as well put that as a hedge.

Commercial_Horror204

SPY QQQ Rise again. FUK. WHY?

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** QQQ / GLD **Direction:** Down (Tech) / Up (Gold) **Prognosis:** Buy Gold & QQQ Puts **Catalyst:** VCs playing Prisoner's Dilemma to see who rug pulls the AI bubble first. **Logic:** The first VC to cut funding to a failing AI startup and short the market wins; expect a race to the exit.

Commercial_Horror204

All right, I am opening new puts right now. SPY QQQ finally are exausted

PNWPlayZ

this weekend will either be a mega TACO gap up on Monday. or a reverse TACO in a limit down. me and my 400 QQQ 620C's CANT WAIT TO SEE

ebitdasga

Would you just take the L if QQQ kept dipping though?

CuckedbyPowell

God bless whoever bought those 0dte QQQ puts from me at open, steaks on you this weekend 💅

Aggravating_Fig6288

QQQ the floor is 605 not the ceiling quit rejecting it

AluminiumCaffeine

Pretty chill all things considered no? I was expecting -2.5% or something on QQQ at the open there

Aggravating_Fig6288

Theta too strong, calls hardly printing. Unironically need QQQ to go green in order to make any actual money today

Sweaty_Platypus69

QQQ drilling less than SPY is interesting.. considering they are more volatile than the plain index...

h3yyoun6w0rld

I like that… after losing $4500 in long calls out of the money 2 months out I switched to 0DTE SPY AND QQQ and started turning profit

MutaliskGluon

The economy is a disaster, private credit falling, clearly a crisis coming up soon... And QQQ is outperforming fuxking TLT on the day. This is so stupid lmao

DrChipnClip

That’s how this sub is. They rely solely on index DCA. They talk about diversifying, but nobody will talk about holdings meant for short term plays. They also hate leverage, but you could have bought QQQ today at $600 and sell now for $603 or if it went down hold. I sold 3 puts for $600 for $4. I hope it gets assigned. If not the $1200 goes into VOO

Stock_Financial_Guy

Knew I should have got QQQ calls and just let it ride. If we start red it always jumps up

CallsOrPutsYES

!banbet QQQ 608 1d

beachsandwichen

So QQQ 608 by eod got it

Commercial_Horror204

Closed all my QQQ PUTS for profits THIS IS NUTS! DON"T HOLD ANY PUTS NOW

---Right--Tackle---

#QQQ is unironically the safe haven

Time_Independence355

On 10/27/2025 I have added QQQ 570P expiring on 5/15/2026 to my watchlist and it's only -7% right now lmao

Sober_Alcoholic_

The QQQ/SPY fights for 600 and 670 are wild.

Extension-Ad917

QQQ clinging for life at 600

LimitIntelligent9946

I can’t believe people are buying QQQ after this terrible jobs report and $88/bbl oil

cannythecat

PPT spending billions to keep QQQ above 600

Beneficial-Age-9293

But that's not Bogleheads.  They are "SPY/VOO/QQQ and chill."

EfficientBusiness620

Thank God, I sold all my QQQ at $612 this week. Going to reinvest.