Reddit Posts
Retiring in 8 to 10 years, going 80% S&P 500 / 8% QQQ / 6% SMH / 6% single stocks. Rate it.
Why do people constantly argue overvaluation when the earnings tell a different story?
Before the close, breakout stocks to watch
Sold my QQQ $758 puts expiring today at $4.21 Before Sell Off
🚀 [DD] WHY $MONQ50 IS THE NEXT MULTIBAGGER ROCKET SHIP TO THE MOON (GME VIBES INTENSIFY 💎🙌)
Before the close, breakout stocks to watch
Rate my Portfolio. What would you do differently?
Lost close to $5000 of capital and need help
I think I got robbed on this QQQ iron condor today 🤦♂️
Pension Funds Are Selling $32B of U.S. Equities But the Setup Is Improving
Selling 30-DTE TQQQ cash-secured puts after large QQQ red days — looking for criticism
Has anyone consistently beaten QQQ over the past 15 years?
The cucks favorite investment basket is voo
2-year update 37, blue collar lawn care business owner. $173k then, $248k now. Still aiming for $1M or retire by 45. Posted here two years ago at $173,000 and got a ton of advice, some of it good. Figured I owed an update.
I Was Too Cautious Yesterday, But I’m Not Chasing
My Iron Condors got absolutely racked today
$QQQ Gains- All because I fell asleep on Friday
$QQQ I bought these to sell same day in mid afternoon but fell asleep… any chance here in getting out alive?
NEVER KYS PART 2 — We are almost even with QQQ since I downloaded Robinhood❤️
Took $2 profit and missed out on close to $600 profit
$250k invested in an eToro QQQ CFD for 20 years, should I move to IBKR despite a huge tax bill?
What % of your portfolio is in single stocks vs ETFs?
What % of your portfolio is in single stocks vs ETFs?
I stopped journaling option spreads using the mark price
The Warsh Effect and Wednesday's Rate Announcement
What % of your investments do you have in single stocks?
Don’t underestimate the impact of Dario saying “we must slow development of AI due to safety concerns”. Should impact QQQ bigly
Investment thesis for week 9/14 - 9/18
For poor man 0DTE options, is IWM my best bet? 🤔
Options buying with a $100K account ? (Intraday vs Swing)
Debit spreads taught me that being right too early can still be annoying
Can a squirrel trade options better than me?
Looking for a meme that was posted a while ago
Making a living and much much more trading options on $1K a day
Tax straddle treatment for downside protection of portfolio with puts
Can you guys tell when I started following this community?
Individual stocks or VGT, why take the risk?
Does anyone avoid diversification (like me)?
Four years in, what’s everyone’s take on JEPQ?
Post Jackson hole & next week Japanese government bonds
Can we break out of the QQQ channel that we’ve been in since 2023
NVDA Confirms the Memory Bottleneck, PCE Stays Mechanically Hot & Positioning Turns Bullish Into Jackson Hole
Bear season on the way. Rainbow gay bear reporting for duty!
Has anyone had consistent success with the 'retirement trade' strategey of a morning reversal trade?
Everyone loves tech stocks right now. That’s exactly what worries me about the next 10 years.
Everyone is piling into tech, semis and AI stocks. Valuations say the next 10 years of returns will be very low
In 1999 at the peak of the internet bubble, QQQ launched and retail piled in. Then came the 73% drop and 15 years underwater
Mentions
Nothing I just have CSPs on QQQ and holding NKE for a quick flip while holding 70% cash earning interest. Waiting for the dip before I open bigger positions
https://preview.redd.it/gvamybuv4xuh1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d7c548609bae413532088d4cbef8fa5042f8d43 Okay here I mainly trade QQQ and big tech
I will renounce my homosexuality and delete Grindr if QQQ closes above $760 tmrw.
Let it be a 3% up day on the QQQ based on vibes and nothing more
the plan is solid on the big index, but the tech tilt feels like a neck‑tied safety net. 80% S&P and 8% QQQ already overlap a lot in FA>NVDA etc. If the same chip cycle hiccups, you could be staring at a 30–40% hit close to your 8‑year mark. Also the legacy leg with 40‑year horizon could use a bit more diversification – maybe a slice of global (e.g. VTI + XWO) and some bonds earlier, the 3‑year-before‑retirement window feels tight. Brown‑out if a shock hits; you’ll still be riding the crash before you start realigning. Consider a 70/30 US/International split plus 10–15% bonds from year –5 to start smoothing out the tail risk.
Puts on SPY and QQQ all day.
Nice! Congrats. ; ) Do you ever buy options on QQQ or SPY?
Age is the central question. Or brass tacks, number of years you plan on living, I suppose. In any case, this portfolio doesn't make much sense. 8% QQQ? Why bother, considering the overlap. And OP cites NVDA as a single stock, but it's the biggest position in both QQQ and S&P. Just pointless. /u/Inevitable_Abies_777 not trying to slam your concept here, but it's just fussing around the edges. If you're going risk-on, just VOO it up, or if you're looking for a reason to actively oversee it, 90%+ VOO with a splash of individual SMH components. Otherwise, you're better off derisking from the S&P, not leaning into it. Take a lesson from the train industry—the sign is a big RXR—as in, do not cross Risk and Retirement
you are pretty heavy nvda, SMH is a large part of QQQ and SP500, NVDA is the largest part of SMH
Q3-earnings time 10yr rate at 22 years high. AI companies revenue shrinking, as companies see not big profits from tokenized spending plan. Performance improvements doesn’t mean profits gain. Existing models good enough, no need new models, where is profit ? $SPY $QQQ see it
It most definitely is. I can’t argue that. QQQ puts also work. lol
Yeah, I'm semi-retired and I wouldn't want anything in QQQ if I'm in in SPY (which I am not). I'd recommend much more VXUS (or equivalent for your country).
Tech Weekend is pumping https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/mkts:QQQ Bears are fucked!
Because QQQ is heavy into AI companies which is going crazy right now. If/when the bubble pops then it will most likely fall more than the S&P. It's not bad to invest in both. Just know what your risk exposure is to a small amount of stocks.
Okay well explain to me why QQQ is out performing SPY
Spy isn't a diversified basket anymore anyway. QQQ beats everything (or even SOXX) so why even dilute your gains by not fullporting into tech?
>QQQ and SMH add the chip-making and memory layer the S&P under-owns Semis are \~20% of the S&P 500. Do you really call that "under-owned"? Compared to what? I see that you're going all-in on AI. I understand that. I believe AI is a revolution not a fad. But the reason why semiconductor stocks have risen so much is partly due to a supply shortage which has caused margins to skyrocket. Micron's gross margins have traditionally been near zero. Now they are 75%. Even if revenues will stay permanently higher than they used to be (and I think they will), margins will not, because high margins attract new supply. Memory chips in particular are a realtively simply component that will be commoditised. Nvidia is a great company that will do well, but their 75% gross margins are not sustainable either. They hail from a time when there was no alternative to Nvidia (because of CUDA) and almost all GPU use was training rather than inference. Mass market inference will not permanently pay anyone 75% margins. So while I believe in the AI story in the long run, I think we are in an extremely unsual phase of this development. Capital investment in this technology is at historical extremes as a percentage of GDP. Only the railroad boom in the late eighteenhundereds is comparable and could yet be dwarfed by the AI investment boom. I'm not predicting a crash and I have no idea about timing. But while you can ignore normal business cycles when your investment horizon is 10 years, I think you cannot ignore the historical dimensions of what's going on right now. This is highly unusual. In my opinion you are way overexposed to semis. You're doubling down procyclically on the one part of the AI industry that's currently profitable. If AI is to succeed then others will have to benefit from it as well and semiconductor margins will need to come back to earth.
Your overall approach seems reasonable given your 2.8% spending rate and long investment horizon. But a few things stick out to me. QQQ, SMH, and your individual stocks add considerable concentration to technology and semiconductors already heavily represented in the S&P 500. You acknowledge the risk of another technology bust like the one following 2000, but limiting your additional tilt to 20% doesn’t account for the exposure already embedded in your core holdings. The AI investment thesis is plausible, but enormous capital spending doesn’t necessarily translate into superior stock returns. A lot depends on how much future growth is already reflected in valuations. Lastly, you may want to focus more on managing sequence of returns risk as retirement approaches rather than waiting until three years out to begin shifting toward bonds. Overall, you’re in a much better position than most. Congrats, and good luck on your journey toward a comfortable retirement!
Why do you keep referring to outperformance? Financial planning includes more than solely stock gains. We all have access to the same index funds and QQQ. It’s not rocket science. Some people need more than performance picks. It’s simple. Speak for yourself.
NVDA: 8% of S&P 500, 9% of QQQ, 22% of SMH, 100% of NVDA Numbers not exact but watch for concentration risk.
can’t relate only holding QQQ, SOXX, and UPRO
I’d keep Bitcoin at about 10–12% and trim a little from VT, then add a 3–5% position in a high‑quality semiconductor ETF like SMH or a diversified tech ETF like QQQ. To hedge against a 40–50% market drop, put a small cush‑er in a low‑volatility bond or money‑market UCITS‑compliant fund—those are hard to liquidate but provide a safety net while you still chase upside. Also double‑check the tax rules for crypto in your country; selling can trigger a tax event even if capital gains are nominally exempt. That’s a balanced way to boost risk‑adjusted return without blowing the diversification that keeps early FI realistic.
i just checked, both are behind QQQ
Looks great! Real shit. This is what 99.9% (my self included) should be doing. Only thing I’d change is cut DGRO and move it to SCHD. And cut the other three things that are less than 2% of portfolio value. So 50% SP500 index. 15% QQQ. 25% SCHD. 10% for one of the other three depending on age and risk tolerance.
Fair points. This is not an AI/ML algorithm or a price-target model. It is a date-based market-timing hypothesis overlaid on actual QQQ closes. Before the next update, I will publish one locked forecast card: probability for each scenario, the base-case invalidation level, expected QQQ ranges for October 31 and December 31, and the benchmark used for comparison. The original card will remain unchanged, with weekly results appended rather than rewritten. The useful test is not whether one of three narrative paths can fit after the fact. It is whether the timing model improves directional accuracy, range calibration, and forecast error versus a simple hold-price and trend baseline.
Since you're planning to track how the model ages, I'd make the forecast testable before the next few weeks unfold.The levels are useful, but with bullish, bearish and sideways paths, almost any market outcome could eventually fit one of the scenarios.I'd assign probabilities to each path now, define what invalidates the base case, and record expected ranges for fixed dates like October 31 and December 31. Then keep those original forecasts unchanged as new weekly updates come in.The most revealing comparison would be against a simple benchmark, such as projecting the current QQQ price forward or using a basic trend model. If your algorithm consistently produces smaller forecast errors or better-calibrated probabilities, that's evidence it's adding something beyond a plausible scenario map. One small clarification: the chart says weekly closes through October 7, which was a Wednesday. Are those weekly sampled observations or actual week ending closes?I like that you're publishing the forecast before the outcome is known. Defining the scoring rules now would make the follow-up much more informative.
QQQM isn't a tech ETF. It happens to have tech in it route now but there are actual dedicated tech ETF's if that is what you want. My understanding is QQQ and by extension QQQM doesn't have a methodology that makes sense and it just happens to have ended up in a perfect situation. The data testing on other timelines did not do as well. But because of that it has been popular. Nothing wrong with it. It seems like it will do well. But I have seen mention that is is a arbitrary set up. I don't think there is any scenario where it massively fails or anything. I just focus on different tech ETF's myself.
Super interesting display here. I’ve been lucky. Bought into nvda in 2020 and have held Apple, Amazon, meta and Google since 2010 ish. Held Berkshire for years and this confirms the lag it feels like I’m getting. Sold Tesla in 21 after buying in 2012. I missed most of the other winners here except for QQQ. I had been trying to sell some of these winners to diversify, but the things I’ve diversified into have lagged significantly. I assume someday I’ll be happy with this outcome as AI comes back to earth. Or maybe not. Either way- I won!
Sorry for your loss buddy. My partner passed away a few years back. I am in my late 30s and working full time in IT, based in UK. After I had her funeral, I told myself I need to focus and I started learning and d ay trade options once a day. It is not that complicated. I have been sorting out some things and one of my goals is to reach a certain amount to stop working full time before I lose my job. It is a matter of time with how it is going in the economy. You can see my post in the subreddit in my profile over last 20 weeks. I have been growing a small accout to encourage people that one trade a day, 2-5 times a week is enough to grow an account consistently. I only have 2 vids on my youtube channel from march if last year, will try put more. I don't do any complex strategies, and trade only ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IWM etc
You’re fine since you’re young. I’m 45% QQQ 10% BTC and 45% VOO
An actually responsible bear doesn’t pull out of stocks or short, but derisks. I’m moderately bearish, but all I’ve done recently is pull out some QQQ and VOO to put into VT.
The current stock market is an absolute joke and is solely being held up by those few companies that you named...once we start assigning TRUE valuations of money losing companies like OpenAI or Tesla, the SPY & QQQ will be in the 200s instead of the 700s
Markets goes up when companies make money. Markets drop for two/three weeks after a war starts, then ignore it, and focus back to company earnings. That's your simple answer. Iran war happens to coincide with the biggest technological revolution in our lifetime. Inflation isn't high enough for consumers to stop spending. So companies keep earning. You think it feels odd now? Give it 5 more years when unemployment keeps going up, yet the market is still going higher. Labor and productivity relationship changing. React to earnings season, not wars. If you're nervous, buy a hedge, don't exit the market. For example, buy some PSQ instead of selling all your QQQ. Then if the market does crash, you have a nice chunk to buy back at a lower price. If it doesn't, you still participate in gains. Best of luck!
60% VOO, 30% QQQ, 10% on whatever you want. Once the 10% hits your target e.g. 100k, rebalance back to 60%/30%/10% and continue on. Don’t buy options unless you have very high conviction in a move occurring, only sell options. If you don’t wanna sell options, just trade shares, no positions above 10% of port, rebalance if it happens. No leveraged ETFs because of vol decay unless you have high conviction in a sustained directional move. Set rules for yourself around psychology to take the emotion out of it e.g. if you’re waking up thinking of a position, it’s probably too large/risky for you and you need to reduce position size to more manageable
Couldve invested in QQQ and been up almost 30%. Effortlessly
I’d say quit trading options. Invest in the SandP500, QQQ, and QQQI
Just keep it simple QQQ
He could have straight up bought QQQ shares and would have made $56K YTD
Dumb shit... bro think thats a flex cause you wanna do 0dte ... silly ass guy right here lol.. couldve got a few leaps on QQQ
QQQ could dump 10% and still be up 10% YTD
QQQ seems perfectly setup for a gigantic move to the right on Monday
Holding QQQ puts over the weekend bc I will not attack Iran sounds like attacking Iran is imminent.
This gambling port started at a similar level about a year ago. I’ve just had the mindset of “if I lose the money, I never had it anyway” and that thinking makes you really objective. It’s actually growing better than the safer ports this year :hmmm: Prolly blow a giant hole in it now with these QQQ put spreads
It’s my more aggressive port on IBKR, I refuse to call it a gambling port, it’s my “aggressive strategies” port. Has a mix of short straddles that you really shouldn’t sell and some directional bets. I bought the QQQ put spreads at a bad price and they were the biggest loss on the day :hmmm:
Picked up some OTM QQQ Monday puts. Seemed pretty cheap actually……
has to be the most algo driven daily chart I've ever witnessed on QQQ
If I played SPY rather than QQQ today I’d have been green 😭
The QQQ daily is legitimately hilarious to look at, wtf is that formation
I successfully incepted the algos by ranting like a nut job about how everyone knew QQQ was going to get rugged while loading calls, LETS FUCKING GO
I only wish I bought SPY instead of QQQ calls this morning
QQQ is just a den of retardation and corruption now, it can never go anywhere in open anywhere again outside of a gay ass tight range
My bot is freaking out about QQQ monday strikes idk why
max pain QQQ 250 and look at price pinning, yet max pain is reactive not deterministic? 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
give me a QQQ shrek plsssssss
QQQ 760 by close and I will stuff 7 pineapples up my butt
dear 8 lb baby jesus, if you give me QQQ shrek dik i will never ask for anything again
Choppiest useless bullshit QQQ fuck you
Yeah QQQ sure seems like a stable place to trade
Love how QQQ ignores oil spikes and pumps hard when it drops lol
They just fucked everyone on QQQ beautifully
Jesus fuck QQQ 750 is like an anchor
The bar code on QQQ is disgusting lol
They've done it, QQQ is at peak retard levels, congrats everyone
Saw 751, immediately got scared and will now drop .50 to ensure theta does its thing. It shouldn’t be this damn predictable QQQ
If I was a gambling man, I'd bet that QQQ is going to go right back to 750
Semis are stopping QQQ from shrekking and it's really starting to piss me off
We are never getting normal price action again on SPY/QQQ, it's dead and buried
QQQ green while ai hardware bubble is popping.
Is the guy who traded QQQ still up?
Bruh it cannot be more obvious that they are pinning QQQ
If AAPL and NVDA could stop holding back the QQQ that would be great
Alright enough joshin' around gonna need that QQQ bounce now
Because NVDA is down and it's basically the whole QQQ
Since when do SPY calls move more than QQQ calls, why is tech so flatttttttt.
They are going to pin QQQ to 750
Theta has eaten enough today, we are so overdue for a new QQQ ATH
QQQ closing at 750, gonna start the weekend early :dance:
QQQ: How would you like to die today, motherfucker?
Look at QQQ since Tuesday morning, and tell me we’re gonna lose :chad:
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **QQQ** ▼ | $700.00 (below) | $745.53 | $749.35 | -6.1% | Thu, Oct 29, 1:24 PM ET |
| Ticker | Target | Entry | Current | Move | Expires | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **QQQ** ▼ | $700.00 (below) | $746.01 | $749.56 | -6.2% | Thu, Oct 29, 1:38 PM ET | | **Record** | 1W - 2L | 33% | - | - | - |
yes I get it, QQQ wants to test the same price 100 times
QQQ tracks semis far more than SPY
QQQ 760 and you know it
Anyone else feel like QQQ is about to run like a scalded dog
QQQ rocketship all the way to 750 close :kek: