QQQ

ApathysLastKiss_

I think, even if futures come in super nasty tommorrow night and we open lower, that dip is likely to get bought up. Even if it's just to set a higher low. On the QQQ your at 700, strong psychological support, 698 is where the second and third weeks of May caught a bid..you also have an hourly rsi of 15 on the Qs. And the dip buying reflex in this market isn't going to vanish overnight, likely. So that's my shitty thesis/copium. Next stops after that would be 668, and 639. Under those and it's regime change, go to defensives.

ThetaEdgeHQ

The flip back to put over call is less a new signal than a return to baseline. A cap weighted tech index carrying call skew was the anomaly, that was the melt up paying up for upside. Six vols of put richness at the 25 delta is pretty normal for QQQ once a pullback actually starts. The tradeable part is what the rich side lets you finance. Put verticals capture the expensive downside while capping the tail, and a collar gets cheaper to put on because the call you sell is now the cheap leg. Selling naked puts into IV that is rich and still rising is the spot people get hurt. One thing worth checking before sizing anything is whether this is a parallel shift across the whole skew or the front week steepening faster than the back. A steepening front tells you the market is pricing an event, not just a regime change.

biglebowskidude

QQQM - Long Term Thesis (3-5 Years) Currently $290.35, down 4.78% today. Lower-cost QQQ alternative at 0.15% expense ratio. Bull case: 10-14% annualized returns if Al monetization plays out, no prolonged recession, and rates stabilize. 3-year target $395-420, 5-year $475-535. What needs to be true: Microsoft/Google/Meta actually monetize AI (evidence needed by 2026), soft landing on the economy, 10-year yields stay below 5.5% Invalidation triggers: Sustained 10-year yields above 6%, forced antitrust breakups of top holdings, or 2+ quarters of -2% GDP contraction Verdict: Solid core holding for long-term investors who believe in US tech dominance. Not exciting, but historically reliable. Today's dip is noise not signal. Full 3-5 year thesis at norrisai.us — code REDDIT-FREE-TRIAL

wanseer18

Prob about the startups getting culled but comparing it to the dot com crash is just stupid. QQQ aint crashin. Plus ppl have been saying the startups will be culled for a year and it hasnt happened yet so that might not even happen.

shortvol_trader

Yeah I’ve been watching it too What stood out to me isn’t even that puts got richer again — it’s how fast sentiment shifted after one ugly move Feels like we went from “upside convexity at any price” to “okay maybe I want some protection” really quickly I’m not reading it as outright bearish either. More like positioning got crowded and people suddenly remembered downside exists The thing I’m watching next week is whether skew keeps steepening without price actually breaking down. If QQQ stabilizes but downside protection stays bid, that feels more like fragility / hedging demand than directional panic Also curious how much of Friday was just people repricing after realizing a low VIX + crowded tech positioning isn’t the same thing as low risk

Inst_Sock_Sales_Rep

Some of you here bought QQQ puts yesterday This means markets rallying next week 

OurNewestMember

Calls decrease, puts increase as the dividend approaches. Holding shares requires capital to be tied up which deprives you of the riskless rate. However, the expected dividends are value-neutral for the shares position but create cash flow, so that reduces the amount of opportunity cost for carrying shares (you're not earning the riskless rate on your capital, but you *are* earning the dividend). Since calls offer an alternative to shares exposure but require less capital, they require extra premium to you pay to the MM who hedges the sold call with long shares and is losing out on the riskless interest. But because that burden is reduced because of the dividend, that extra premium in the call is also reduced. Once the QQQ dividend goes ex in a few weeks, the call premiums will pop back up to restart the cycle, and someone will say "there's call skew in QQQ!" And I'll make some comment somewhere about interest rates and carry and someone will say "rho doesn't matter!" (Which isn't what we're talking about, lol, but it's going to happen) And then *we*, too, can repeat the cycle

onerandomcomputerguy

No thanks. QQQ calls 4 lyfe

TequilaTrader

It was mainly on my 250 shares of QQQ

memmolemmo

The end of the day on July 6 is when QQQ is forced to buy into SpaceX. The 0dte calls 10 minutes before close on that day will hit harder than crack.

memmolemmo

The end of the day on July 6 is when QQQ is forced to buy into SpaceX. The 0dte calls 10 minutes before close on that day will hit harder than crack.

TheDrFruit

The fastrack into the NASDAQ100 (so basically QQQ with its $400B), along with the changed float rule, and the change to the weightings is a bit... Transparent ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

whk1992

Let QQQ and other NASDAQ funds hold the bag.

technojoe99

Retail is not allowed to sit out the SpaceX IPO. SpaceX will be fast tracked onto the NASDAQ 100 index after just 15 days. This means any passively managed ETF or mutual fund based on the NASDAQ 100, like QQQ or QQQM, will be required to buy SpaceX. Retail can't sit out unless it rotates its money out of passively managed funds and into actively managed funds. The system is rigged.

circadiggmigration

You said > Paying taxes on capital gains would cause a greater loss You're now conflating your cost basis with the loss you would realize from a tax bill. But you don't have to realize the the loss in space X or the "greater loss" because you could 1. Direct index your portfolio that underweights space X 2. Do the same with all QQQ dividends 3. Use low income years to sell off specific positions in QQQ to tax harvest the lowest bracket. You present it as binary choice between being forced to hold QQQ for eternity or liquidate it all at once + realizing gain. You don't pay the taxes until you realize the gain in that year, not when you sell the stock. Seems like a pretty obvious oversight for a "professional".

zachalicious

Hopefully this means QQQ calls will print.

Axe_Raider

can you share that video? 0.044% might be right for VTI but it's way too small for QQQ. it will be around 1% for QQQ.

Axe_Raider

QQQ is a marketing gimmick. it is for people who love high-risk techy stuff. it's all compuer.

FullTard2000

i want ai to trade for me, like have 1 model specifically designed to trade 1 asset like the nasdaq. have it study all the historical data from NQ,MNQ,QQQ, the options, the underlyings and be able to predict short term movements. it would be better than any human trader but its really fucking hard, the big funds like citadel already have them. apparently they somehow punish them when they are wrong and reward them when they are right the punishments.... that must be the key. how would one punish them?

Paciorr

I mean sit out how? I don’t plan to but the stock but I’m not going to sell all my ETFs that are going to include it just because it IPOs. That said if I had QQQ or some other nasdaq-100 etf I would consider doing just that.

RaikouVsHaiku

!banbet QQQ +3% 49h

Sweaty_Platypus69

You port is basically 85% QQQ, 15% VOO. Great if the AI bulls continues.. sucks if we have like Friday type of crashes.

Sweaty_Platypus69

QQQ - Give me my money back. Give me my fickign money back (Big short movie quote)

Which-Travel-1426

Passive investing doesn’t mean you are passively DCA into whatever speculative shit. At least it needs to directed into broad market diversified fund, which QQQ certainly isn’t. If you don’t even know what these words mean, you should go educate yourself instead of pretending you know.

Historical-Demand976

This seems like the amount where you could realistically borrow against your QQQ and short space x and it would STILL be cheaper than selling, due to taxes and opportunity cost as qqq continues up in the next years.

Chuque

back up the chart 25 years it was literally never a good idea more than 6 months at a time to hold the s&p over QQQ. Holding the S&P is for sucker who will sacrifice 400% gain to not go down an extra 10-15% on the largest drawdowns

Fit_Service8662

Weekend QQQ hulk green

TapFinancial1482

QQQ calls or puts Monday?

EthanRio

QQQ 800 by start of August

1M-to-Zero

So trump just said government is looking into to invest into AI companies. Talks are scheduled for next week, calls on QQQ and aapl.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

Most people don’t have their retirement in QQQ. Most use VOO, VTI, VT, etc. (or target retirement date funds, which track VTI or something equivalent). None of these ETFs changed their rules for SpaceX. SpaceX isn’t going into the S&P500 (yet), and for broader “total market” funds, they’re just like any other stock, accounting for an immaterial portion of total market cap. It seems like you’re just repeating misinformation you read on Reddit.

Sweaty_Platypus69

MM testing the new IPO on QQQ first and then in 2027 - into SPY. Once it enter SPY - that where they will siphon every 401k retirement $ to fund those companies cash flow.

cowboynude

My QQQ never leaks

Study_Queasy

If you think the 'making room' rebalancing logic doesn't apply to semiconductors, you aren't looking at the macro data. Look at Steve Eisman’s analysis on the SpaceX S-1 filing. He points out that SpaceX has fundamentally shifted its entire business model from a capital-efficient aerospace firm into an incredibly capital-intensive AI ecosystem to compete with Google. In Q1 2026, SpaceX reported $4.7B in revenue but burned a mind-boggling $10.1B in AI Capex—a Capex-to-revenue ratio of 215%. Because this IPO is structurally an AI play wrapped in a rocket hull, it is directly targeting the pool of global AI capital. When the 15-day Nasdaq Fast Entry rule kicks in, index trackers can't magically find the cash to buy into a $1.75T company with an AI Capex burn that high. They are forced to aggressively liquidate the most hyper-liquid, heavily weighted engines of the Nasdaq100 to free up that cash. Right now, that engine is semiconductors and the Mag7. Broadcom just missed revenue expectations, causing a double-digit decline that dragged down the entire chip sector. The systemic risk is already bleeding into the market, and the forced index inclusion hasn't even opened yet. Selling covered calls on QQQ or holding cash to catch the eventual tech slingshot is the only logical play here.

Unlucky-Clock5230

So you don't know that QQQ is the NASDAQ? And that QQQ/NASDAQ did so "great" because it lost 80% of its value in 2000? So yes; just recovering the loses to leave you at 0 gains made it look like it gained 500%. But honestly at this juncture it boils down to whether AI and tech are hyper inflated and due for a reconning, or not. For contrast take the internet; it was here to stay and to pretty much take over the US economy, but that didn't mean it could not be overvalued. Like back in 2000 when QQQ/NASDAQ lost that 80% of value thanks to that overvaluing.

Sweaty_Platypus69

I still do think we will see SPY 1000 within our lifetime. (QQQ probably a little further ahead). Take a look - since 2000 (where most WSB are born age wise) - it starts at 1,300. 26 years later - 7,300. If this trend continue, within 13 years we will be cheering reaching 10,000. PS: Just dont look at inflation though..

Extreme_Marketing865

We need a gme x 1000 movement for QQQ monday . Need to fight melvin again

TreGet234

QQQ vs 1.5x leveraged VT What would you hold for 20 years?

rcmtt

QQQ has tight spreads but higher taxes.

Study_Queasy

The mechanics you mentioned seem correct, but there are two big reasons why the 'buying the dip' on Mag7 might not work as easily as it sounds, and why the chip companies got hit. First, a 2% shift sounds small, but 2% of the Nasdaq-100 is roughly $500 billion to $600 billion in total market cap. Shifting that much capital in a 15-day window is a massive liquidity shock. Even if retail traders try to 'buy the dip' on Nvidia or Apple, retail volume cannot compete with institutional algorithms "price-agnostically" liquidating billions of dollars of shares all at once to meet legal index tracking mandates. Second, regarding the chip companies (semis): The 'making room' logic applies heavily to them because they are the heavyweights now. Nvidia alone is nearly 13% of the index, Broadcom (AVGO) is around 5%, and AMD, Qualcomm, and ASML make up huge chunks. Semis aren't a side sector anymore; they are the literal engine of the Nasdaq-100. To find billions of dollars in cash, index managers must dump the hyper-liquid chip stocks alongside Apple and Microsoft. Your idea on a QQQ Covered Call is actually smart IMO and aligned with this thesis. Because the index will be forced to suppress its reliable cash-cow drivers (Mag7 and Semis) to absorb a highly speculative, volatile SpaceX launch, the overall upside of QQQ will likely be heavily capped or dragged sideways. Selling covered calls or call spreads to capture that premium while the index chokes on the reallocation would be a good play IMO. For some reason, folks on this thread are jumping on my throat. Looks like these are all Musk groupies or that they hate it when someone mentions reasons to be wary about in the market. I cannot change my opinion for those reasons. It is what it is.

KookaburraTrading

And that’s why I am the professional and you are not. Do the math. I currently own $5.7m worth of QQQ. COST BASIS $3.08m. Unrealized gains $2.78m long term. If I sell the position: I owe 20% fed plus 9% state. So I’d owe \~$800k in taxes. SpaceX will have an initial weighting of 0.7% in the index. Of my $5.7m that is around $40,000. Even if in the future SpaceX is closer to 4% before it goes to $0 that would only be $228,000 of exposure to SpaceX. So the math is simple: Why would I voluntarily light \~$800k on fire in taxes today to avoid a hypothetical future loss that is dramatically smaller than the tax hit itself? And that’s before considering: \-the rest of QQQ will likely appreciate over the next decade, \-SpaceX becoming 4% would probably mean it massively appreciated first, \-and a zero outcome is already an extreme scenario. I hate that owning SpaceX at this valuation is being forced on me. But math is math.

Locke_____Lamora

They are using every dirty play in the book to get people to buy it. All my boomer relatives are buying it because it's being pushed on their social media feeds. Their kids are buying it. They reduced the requirements to buy it in some brokerages. (Fidelity 500k->2k). Forced buying on QQQ fast track inclusion. I think it at the very least pops on IPO day and maybe a few days after before it gets drosped. I'm gonna try to get 1000 shares but I'm dumping pretty much immediately cause idc about IPO restrictions I never play them. And the #1 reason im buying it is wsb says its going to tank day one and everybody here is a complete moron.

Mountain-Candidate-6

I’m the only idiot trying to short with 0DTE puts on Green Day’s and calls yesterday 🤦‍♂️. I’m up 17% on the year. Got lucky yesterday and barely got out of QQQ calls for like $50 profit before it dumped even harder. Wish I’d just bought IWM puts at open like I had planned but any day that is green is better than red

Much_Candle_942

I didn't understand it well. You mean to say, around end-June (15 days after June 12th), the nasdaq heavyweights like NVDA, AAPL, MSFT etc. will drop? Because the nasdaq linked ETFs need to "make room" for SpaceX. If that happens, naturally most people would jump in on buying calls/stock of these companies. But again, this may not necessarily happen - because weight of SpaceX in the index might just be 2%. What may work better is - covered call on QQQ? Because I doubt if QQQ would run up higher strongly no matter whatever happens with SpaceX.

1M-to-Zero

So QQQ up 2% just like the next of big drop on 10/15/2025.. Last October? How is this drop any different?

Jerikolol

4.3%, so slightly below QQQ. Thanks cash position?

W-33-

What does this have to do with QQQ?

KookaburraTrading

I am an investment professional. I’m not buying it due to valuation and governance either. I still think smart money play is to participate in IPO to flip to the forced buyers. I’m going to be one of those forced buyers. I’ve personally got millions in QQQ which I’ve held since mid-2020. Even if SPACEX goes to zero it would cause a 4% or so loss overall. Paying taxes on capital gains would cause a greater loss. So I’m not going to sell my QQQ position just to avoid SpaceX.

sabri04

Are you going to buy? 6/12 QQQ puts are looking good but I'm not sure

Study_Queasy

First, check your sources. Aswath Damodaran literally just published his post-prospectus breakdown and valued SpaceX equity at $1.3 trillion, calling the $1.8T IPO pricing overpriced and 'foolhardy'. He is sitting on the sidelines because it's a massive hype multiple on a company that just posted a $5 billion net loss. Second ... 'oversubscription' is institutional momentum, not fundamental demand. Wall Street history is littered with oversubscribed mega-IPOs that cratered post-launch. Look at Facebook (chopped in half months after IPO) or Uber (dropped 50%+ in year one). Oversubscription sets up the exact 'air pocket' I'm talking about. The initial retail/hype pump happens, the brand-new 15-day Nasdaq Fast Entry rule forces passive 401(k)s/QQQ to buy at the absolute peak, and then early VCs get their exit liquidity while retirement funds hold the bag when it eventually re-rates down to fair value. S&P 500 literally just blocked fast entry for this exact reason.

tbiol

I suspect both got there yesterday. I know for a fact that the 0DTE QQQ 6-5-26 @ 725 puts that I bought close to open and paper handed for a tiny profit were at +10X by the EOD

bender-b_rodriguez

Sucks to be down but I'm hoping market stays out of pump mode until whatever this QQQ/SpaceX rebalancing doomsday event is over, then can resume

tbiol

Those were called QQQ puts yesterday

Study_Queasy

And you still don't agree with me? The SpaceX IPO is already 2x oversubscribed with $150B in orders. It’s going to launch at an insane, hyped-up valuation on June 12. Because Nasdaq's new 15-day rule kicks in, passive QQQ/401(k) buyers will be legally forced to absorb those sky-high prices just two weeks later, while S&P 500 literally just blocked fast entry to protect their funds from chasing the hype. The trap is mathematically set. Enjoy the ride my friend.

FullTard2000

TIL that evil jane street kinda funds are creating AI that solely focus on short term price movements, they design a systems to focus on a single asset class like NQ, analyzing data from it and /MNQ/QQQ and its underlyings. They punish the AI when it is wrong and reward its right with its goal to being able to predict if price will go up or ahh im tired, buddy gave me a line of blow like 5 hours ago -need sleep

Candid_Payment_4094

And no one can time the market. The crazy 12k% profits/YTD from BTC are long gone. For most people it's just better to DCA into QQQ/VOO and chill. Hell, if you're feeling adventurous just get TQQQ or some shit

gumnamaadmi

All my cash. In QQQ when it pulls back further because of this IPO pulling liquidity. Qs will rise back up while IPO will leave many bagholders behind for a while.

Candid_Payment_4094

Bitcoin has pretty much underperformed QQQ or other assets that are not pie-in-the-sky for years now

FartPolluter

the pump last few weeks was way too narrow, this could drop back to where we were a month ago on QQQ and S&P500 will have barely moved

ElolMusk

Guys, I bought 15 shares of QQQ yesterday at close. How screwed am I?

Necessary-Scallion21

I plan to divest completely from QQQ in my retirement - non tax event- investments. I have seen no good argument for the fast track rule. This deal stinks. It looks like corruption at its worst. Did a Chat GPT session to do research and I will switch to 3 or 4 of these ETFs/Funds MTG/XLK/FTEC/VGT/SPMO/MTUM/FBCG. Its an aggressive - probably more aggressive than QQQ portfolio. I've been lazy to not do some diversifying these past years - but hey QQQ served me well.

Vast-Palpitation-426

There's no "overvalued pos" sector in QQQ though. 

magicroot75

The distinction between S&P and Nasdaq inclusion matters a lot more than people realize. QQQ is rules-based and automatic, SPY has a committee. That committee discretion is what creates the delay and also what prevents forced selling events

TreGet234

And most of then were. At the next major market crash fullporting QQQ will yet again obliterate spy.

PleasantAnomaly

But it'll be in QQQ. I saw a vid that broke down the numbers. 0.044% will be allocated to spcx. Meaning if you have 10k$ invested in Nasdaq100, you'll but 44$ of SPCX

Chuque

100% QQQ is the way. low effort high return low risk

Chuque

wtf QQQ is not risky at all

Icy_Jelly_315

Invest in yourself by signing up to my online fry-bagging course The more monothematic the market gets the less difference it makes whether you index or stock pick because that's market cap weighting for you. Invest in mag 7 since 2010 you rich. Invest in spy or QQQ since 2010 you rich.

CitizenPremier

QQQ sitting at 700 shouting "buy me! buy me!" but I'm still staring going "uhhhhhh"

hypekit

Called my mom to ask if she sold her QQQ and she told me to be prepared for months of pain 😭

cowboynude

If anybody else thinks the global economy will completely implode I will take your QQQ shares for $500. PM me 😂

PositionOk6327

And from VOO to QQQ the $ goes!

CarefulBank9441

QQQ? What are you, a child? TQQQ or death. 

Beemrmem3

I did exactly the same. A 5% off sale in one day is crazy. I'm slowly trying to get SPMO a larger position than QQQ and SCHD. It's currently my favorite ETF.

samwehl

Too late. I bought calls for QQQ yesterday and it drops 5%. The bubble will deflate until I sell

Internal_Control_320

liquidation and risk adjusting ahead of this IPO onslaught ... the Q's got killed today... will be very interesting to see SPY and QQQ diverge

Beemrmem3

It's very unusual for QQQ and SPMO to drop 5% in one day. Is it an extreme overreaction, probably. It's just a lot different than grinding down for a weeks at 0.5-1% a day. I think people are going to be a little more timid about jumping back in this time. The market is way overbought. I think we're going to kind of flounder around sideways until the midterms are over and Iran is resolved

crazybutthole

Ideally if you want $100k just short the tech market (QQQ) and put all the proceeds into oil and energy companies. If Iran (not trump or someone in Israel) if Iran announced the strait of hormuz is open - immediately exit all positions and use the proceeds to buy back the QQQ for massive gains. You will be fine. Massive gains to be had. All in. No sitting on your hands

botistic

Down YTD when $QQQ is up +13% fml

Rock_or_Rol

I sold 138 MSTR puts at 130 725 QQQ puts for Monday at 726 26 and 25 RIOT puts at 25 About 100 IBIT puts ranging from $41 to $35 almost all atm or barely itm If I just have just quit trying to be responsinle, I’d have made somewhere near 100k right now.. this is after selling $18 UMAC calls the day before the mango pump 😩 I’ve had an insanely lucky 2 weeks (up 125%) but it still hurts because it’s a fraction of what I had in my port if I just let them ride

memmolemmo

Wed exp $10 otm SPY/QQQ calls from Monday open.

Ok_Cry7572

Between 2015-2026, $QQQ had a 5% down day 7 times out of 2,774 trading sessions. That's a 0.25% probability event.

Imaginary_Cow9217

Damn if someone bought $100 worth of 0dte QQQ puts on Thursday, they would've made $8000 by today Insaaaane

pineapplekiwipen

how is it even legal for QQQ to dump 5% in a single day is this the prep for when SPCX is added

memmolemmo

Was checking out the QQQ options tape for today earier. Saw someone make just under 4M from a 20k bet into 720P yesterday. I need to borrow their balls and luck.

Fast-Reply6409

Yeah but like the QQQ barely counts 

palmanul

if crypto bros dumped 🌽 and bought QQQ it's not going to end well

circadiggmigration

Don't worry. If QQQ is going down, newspapers are already insolvent. They'll never see it.

Paceys_Ghost

Not enough blood. Need QQQ to $600

PositionOk6327

Too bad for VOO. QQQ will now get the $

radix33

If only NASDAQ and QQQ will do the same. SpaceX and Anthropic are way overvalued.

ebikr

I wish you the best. Personally I’d be happier if 3% of my QQQ position wasn’t going to support your buddy Leon’s ketamine habit.

NotMe357

Higher chance for rate hike in USA and 99.99% chance of rate hike in Japan in 2 weeks. In other words there will be less "free" money to gambler....errr...I mean investing in the stock market in the future. So the market probably just try to priced-in the new "normal". After we found the bottom then we pump again. Iran war make the market go down like around -10% and today QQQ is down almost -5% and SPY -2.5%. I think MMs will dump more early next week, then use fake CPI to pump the market back up before SpaceX IPO.

Mockingjinx

What you mean…we just getting started. QQQ 300 lets goooooo!

Thelakefeben

What’s TQQQ I thought it was another alternative of QQQ

booobReviewer

Yeah, Friday was rough — QQQ alone dropped -4.80%, worst day since April 2025 for the Nasdaq. The trigger was the jobs report coming in stronger than expected, which spooked the market into repricing rate hike odds. CPI report is out Wednesday — that's the next big data point. A 3% drawdown after a 2-month rally to all-time highs isn't unusual. The question is whether you built your portfolio around your actual risk tolerance, or what the last 5 years of real estate returns felt like. If it's the latter, it might be worth stress-testing what a 15-20% correction does to your comfort level before making allocation changes. (Not financial advice.)

WorkingGuy99percent

Good news was bad news. Good jobs meant no reason to not raise interest rates. Gonna stifle the economy with higher rates to reverse inflation. But people know Warsh can’t do that. So if inflation goes higher…. ….all these companies will make even more money…..TRIPLE CALLS IN THE QQQ! Now how can I play that?

satireplusplus

\-5% days (with AH) on QQQ are incredibly rare though

Famous-Shoulder1440

You should buy VOO / SPY / QQQ every month and call it a day. Or better yet keep it treasury bonds. Actually keep it in CDs, or you may be better off keeping it in a bank account earning 0.1% interest

i2noob

sold my puts last week at 50% lost. today QQQ casually just drop almost 5% kill me