ARKK

CrashTestDumb13

ARKK is not an index fund.

gimmetheloot2p2

Index funds hurr durr. Ask the ARKK boys how theyre doing or IWM guys or for a long while SPY guys. You can have index funds and get fucked.

canon2468

I have a combination of LT longs holdings, cash, covered calls and cash/margin secured puts. I'll track all 11 sectors, and welll as SPY, QQQ, IWM, ARKK, SOX, BTC, ect, see where I am performing against all of these indices at least weekly, as well as to judge the risk across my portfolio, so I can adjust if needed, with too much or too little risk.

NotPapaElon

Holy fuck ARKK needs to crash now

mskamelot

She charges whooping 70bp, so she's laughing all the way to bank while bunch of bagholder holding her bags. so ARKK bagholder can def benefit from this. not Cathie

Interesting-Fuel238

QQQ is up 34% YTD. So if you started with ARKK in January you are 1% better. Now lets compare if you bought both in March 2020.

MainStreetRoad

#4 top holding. https://etfs.ark-funds.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ETF_Website/Fact_Sheets/ARKK_Factssheet.pdf

Interesting-Fuel238

I really feel bad for ARKK investors and Cathie Wood fans. I can't lay my hands on it, but I believe she had originally stated that it would take 5 years to really see the value of her flagship innovation fund. I guess if by "value" she meant "worse" than it worked out because it has virtually no growth over 5 years unless you got out at the peak. Has she just done that poorly or is there something else at play here?

animositisomina35

I would love to meet the person who bought COIN at $420 and ask them how it feels to be the CEO of ARKK.

CJ_2013

Imagine buying ARKK at the top 

Dan_inKuwait

OP wrote a super cringey "DD* about ARKK and how we should all buy it diamond hands because its full of rocket emoji companies.... Then wrote this wall of anger when his shit quality post was removed.

DarpResearch

On the first bear market, Covid, many stocks like oils were destroyed. XOP (oils) dropped from 96 to 30 in 4 months., a 68% decline. In 2nd bear the most popular stocks, ala 2000 crash, were killed. ARKK is good proxy for that with Tesla etc in it. 160 to 35 in 16 months, 88% down. On the QQQ 408 to 254, 37%. I think the #1 spot to be now is in sub 5 PE oils, that are way below their average valuations of the last 60 years.

qthistory

Not true. If you compare the top 25 holdings in ARKK between mid-2020 and today, three years later: 21 of the 25 stocks are different. Only TSLA, ROKU, SQ, and CRSPR remain. That's >80% turnover in holdings in 3 years.

Boeing747855

If you cared to read, you would know that I directly own some of the constituents of her ETF, so I do have skin in the game and I do stand to benefit monetarily if my prediction comes true. On that note, I am interested in selling up 2025 pull credit spreads on ARKK on Monday market open.

colliric

I'm gonna start buying up $COIN and $ARKK.... Yeah I think it's going again next year.

Boeing747855

I’m not saying you’re wrong. Coinbase could go to $0 if they execute poorly. What I am saying is that for Coinbase to go to $0, it has to go above $116.30 first, to fish for liquidity. This will help propel ARKK up 86% in the next 1-2 years.

Boeing747855

You may end up being right on several things. But, the market is forward looking and all the information you’re looking at is backward looking. While I commend you on making an effort to do some research, you are driving a car looking through the rear view mirror. The only leading indicator that is reliable is price action. I’ve specifically checked the Coinbase chart for you. The bulls have gotten destroyed over the past 1-2 years, bears have made easy money. But this is set to change very soon. Anyone that is shorting at these levels is simply providing entry liquidity to the bulls at this point. There is a ton of liquidity above $87.63 and $116.30, so the market is going to go there. Coinbase may end up going to $0, but for that to happen, the institutions need a large amount of liquidity to short this thing to $0. So usually, before going to $0, stocks will make a huge violent upward move. This violent upward move, basically a liquidity grab, will help fuel ARKK’s 86% surge over the next 1-2 years (the point of this original post). I don’t claim to know what will happen afterwards, as it’s really anyone’s guess. Good luck.

ThrowRA921731

It's not zero sum, you're allowed to believe what you believe at the same time that I believe what I do. I held ARKK and ARKX and lost money on both positions, and eventually sold them. >Instead of dismissing the idea that ARKK will go up, why not actually wait and see what happens? Patience, my friend. Truly nothing in my post said this at all, you're merely interpreting what I said and projecting onto me what you think I said. Now I will tell you what I think. I truly do not believe ARKK is going to go back up 86% anytime soon, maybe on a 10 year trajectory, but it's no imminent or certain thing. Btw, I was an ARKK and ARKX investor and lost money on both positions. Honestly you just sound like you're disappointed that you were left holding the bag. This is a clever story and interpretation in your post, but I just don't see any hard data that makes your thesis make sense. I'd be open to that, but I just don't see a formed argument that makes sense. Good luck, "friend".

Boeing747855

I don’t know anything about religion and you might be completely right about some things. Instead of dismissing the idea that ARKK will go up, why not actually wait and see what happens? Patience, my friend.

Boeing747855

Ah yes, anyone even suggesting that ARKK will go up is Cathie in disguise😂 Wonder why Cathie would choose to say this on a Reddit forum filled with people that lose money for a living, than using a real platform like CNBC?🤔🤫

Boeing747855

I think you have a comprehension problem. I clearly said that growth stocks are below what they were pre-COVID. This was before anyone knew what COVID was. How was that a period of mania? If anything, prices were the most rational back then. Secondly, I literally told you ARKK would go up at least 86% to reflect their true value and you’re saying I haven’t told you what the true value is🤡🙈 Their true value is 86% above from today’s prices. My exact target is in the original post at the top. $84.65 in 1-2 years time.

Boeing747855

Your first mistake is attempting to value hyper growth and early stage companies using a PE ratio. PE ratios are usually for valuing mature companies and even when using it to value mature companies, it often leads people to neglect high quality names for low quality trash. Secondly, moats are not magically bestowed at the birth of a company, they are crafted and moulded over time. There’s also this belief that you need to be a complete monopoly to make money, a theory which has been disproved by virtually every single company in existence. These small companies are perfectly capable of carving out their own niche in a fragmented market and will do just fine. Thirdly, I said that the large institutions that drive price action have closed out all their shorts. This does not mean smaller institutions and retail investors have, in fact many will still have their shorts open. Traditionally, smaller institutions and retail investors are inferior investors and are often late to the game. They would have opened their short positions at or near the bottom and they are currently wondering why ARKK hasn’t gone to $0 yet. What do you think when these shorts start getting short squeezed by the biggest of whales on Wall St? They’ll start covering in mass, fuelling the 86% surge in the next 1-2 years. So no, having a high short interest doesn’t mean the stock will stay down and in my view, will only serve to make the upward move more violent. Lastly, this is my day job. I’ve been doing this for many years. Thought I’d share some of my insights with this sub, but I’ve been met with a 98% downvote rate😂 Oh well, you guys would rather follow investing gurus than someone with inside knowledge on how markets truly work.

Boeing747855

Your first mistake is attempting to value hyper growth and early stage companies using a PE ratio. PE ratios are usually for valuing mature companies and even when using it to value mature companies, it often leads people to neglect high quality names for low quality trash. Secondly, moats are not magically bestowed at the birth of a company, they are crafted and moulded over time. There’s also this belief that you need to be a complete monopoly to make money, a theory which has been disproved by virtually every single company in existence. These small companies are perfectly capable of carving out their own niche in a fragmented market and will do just fine. Thirdly, I said that the large institutions that drive price action have closed out all their shorts. This does not mean smaller institutions and retail investors have, in fact many will still have their shorts open. Traditionally, smaller institutions and retail investors are inferior investors and are often late to the game. They would have opened their short positions at or near the bottom and they are currently wondering why ARKK hasn’t gone to $0 yet. What do you think when these shorts start getting short squeezed by the biggest of whales on Wall St? They’ll start covering in mass, fuelling the 86% surge in the next 1-2 years. So no, having a high short interest doesn’t mean the stock will stay down and in my view, will only serve to make the upward move more violent. Lastly, this is my day job. I’ve been doing this for many years. Thought I’d share some of my insights with this sub, but I’ve been met with a 98% downvote rate😂 Oh well, you guys would rather follow investing gurus than someone with inside knowledge on how markets truly work.

Boeing747855

Markets tend to move 6-12 months ahead of the economy and in my prediction, I did give it a 1-2 year timeframe. When the bull market arrives, but got beaten down the most will surge the most. My technical analysis indicates that ARKK has at least 86% upside, if not more.

Imaginary-Fly8439

This. I can only see five companies from ARKK that I would actually invest in: DNA, BEAM, TXG, TWST, VERV

Jonas42

\> Most stocks in ARKK have been dramatically oversold, many are now below their pandemic lows despite generating significantly more revenue and free cash flow Is this true? Roku, Coinbase, DraftKings, Exact Sciences, Shopify, Crispr all have negative FCF. Square's is positive, but down from where it was pre-pandemic. Revenue is higher for most, but most are also diluting the hell out of their shares, so the per shares rates sometimes tell a different story.

DrinknBlaze

ARKK

snapshot808

I agree with OP. ARKK is beaten down I don’t like her picks as they seem old now Shop zoom draftkimgs Roku. Not exactly cutting edge anymore but it seems very likely ARKK will have it’s day again. Sure seems bottoming out now imo

hydrocyanide

>Most stocks in ARKK have been dramatically oversold, many are now below their pandemic lows despite generating significantly more revenue and free cash flow. Centuries later, tulip bulbs still cost less than the mania prices. >The reversion of these stocks to their true value will drive ARKK up 86% in the next 1-2 years. You have done exactly nothing to suggest what their "true values" are.

Boeing747855

I agree most TA is BS, but this is how TA should be done. Price action applies to all stocks and ETFs alike, because price action represents institutional behaviour, which does not vary from stock to stock. Most stocks in ARKK have been dramatically oversold, many are now below their pandemic lows despite generating significantly more revenue and free cash flow. The reversion of these stocks to their true value will drive ARKK up 86% in the next 1-2 years.

MediumRB

And the "genius" of Cathie Wood has absolutely no bearing on the composition of ARKK or its positions, right?. This is idiotic. You can't apply the TA of an individual stock* to a (mis)managed fund. *TA is BS anyway.

Boeing747855

Except ARKK is $1 and is comprised of stocks worth significantly more than $1. What’s your point? You would avoid buying something even though it will go up 86%, just because you hate it?

Boeing747855

You might have missed the part where I said I own some of the constituents of her ETF. I stand to benefit monetarily if ARKK goes up. If ARKK goes up 86%, I will likely make significantly more than 86%

abgonzo7588

so you believe there is an 86% upside, but don't own any shares in $ARKK? You know you got top notch DD when you wont even bet on it.

Boeing747855

True. During bull runs, garbage stocks go up significantly more than quality stocks. While I think that ARKK will surge 86%, it doesn’t necessarily mean I think those companies deserve to go up.

Boeing747855

I don't disagree. All I'm saying is, I think ARKK has a lot of upside over the next 1-2 years. I wouldn't mind a nice 86% in 1-2 years.

Boeing747855

I think all ARK ETFs will go up in the next few years. I only picked ARKK because it’s the most popular.

Boeing747855

I suppose you can keep telling yourself that when ARKK goes 🚀🚀🚀 over the next 1-2 years.

mw_37

ARKK is just Tesla and a bunch of literal garbage that holds it down (Roku, zoom, draftkings, etc.). Just buy Tesla

Boeing747855

So what if ARKK goes up 86% like I predicted? You gonna stay flaccid forever?😂

Boeing747855

Saying I have no positions is misleading as I do stand to benefit monetarily if ARKK goes up, as I own some of the constituents of the ETF. So I do have skin in the game and for the record, I’ve seen this pattern many many times before and I 100% believe that ARKK is going up at least 86% over the next 1-2 years.

scott_jr

I get off on watching ARKK loss porn 

livelearnplay

That’s how you know calls will continue to print as wsb continues being bearish on ARKK. Last week $COIN was a really good long. On Thursday it rallied 6% and my return on my calls was very good! And clean price action.

livelearnplay

This! Money is flowing back in to ARKK and I like it! My coin calls keep printing!

Boeing747855

You're welcome to have yourself pick stocks. I'm just saying, ARKK will likely surge at least 86% in the next 1-2 years. You can't do whatever you want with that information.

itsgucci060

Contrary to what everyone here is saying, I’m fine with ARKK at these levels.

Boeing747855

Has is never occurred to you that human emotions swing like a pendulum? During the 2020 run up, hypergrowth stocks were likely overvalued and during 2021-2022, the market has pushed the same stocks so low that they are likely undervalued. ARKK should revert to the mean in the next 1-2 years.

Boeing747855

Yes, I do believe this. I've seen this pattern many many times before. I don't currently own any ARKK shares, but I do own some of the hypergrowth stocks in her ETFs though. Regardless, I think people are wrongly writing off ARKK, despite their poor performance over the past 1-2 years.

_hiddenscout

Honestly, never really followed the markets back then. I didn't really get more active or paying attention to the market until 2016. That's when I bought a bunch of ARKK when I rolled over one my 401ks into a roth ira to buy a house. Since you get some tax benefits when using it for a first time home purchase and having the account for 5 years. Agreed about the labor market. I go back to covid acted as a catalyst and sped up trends that were bound to happen. We saw immigration go down since 2016 and covid led to a wave of early retirements, death and expensive childcare. I think I've been posting about that for like 6-8 months now lol. I still think it's wild people just won't acknowledge that and that it's a big reason why the labor market is tight. Kind of like a lot of inflation was transtitory in the sense of that different things were impacting the numbers, we will see the same thing to play out with CPI. I'm still bearish on the idea that consumers will travel or spend in the back half of the year, but rather hunker down and start paying down debt. Plus student loans coming back online is going to cut away like 200-300 of spending power for a lot of people.

urraca

Yeah she should. But the underlying just has to increase in value for ARKK to go up. Nothing to do with Cathy getting more money

consci0usness

ARKK's biggest position is Tesla, and TSLA is still oversold. Say what you will about Mr Musk but Tesla (the company) is going back to a +1 trillion valuation. They're making the Tesla Bot and on hype alone that will carry them to +1 trillion.

urraca

I'd hate to say it...because Cathie is an idiot... but I think ARKK going to go for a run the next month. (along with small caps like IWM, QQQJ) Still bag-holding a bit of ARKK, and just been waiting to cut my losses. Come on $55!

Cathie_D_Wood

!banbet ARKK -5% 1W

Cathie_D_Wood

!banbet ARKK -5% 1W 

Fox_Technicals

Some strength out of ARKK names pre-market: MDB +25%, $SSYS +9.8%, $DDOG +4.75%

Ok_Reputation8227

For sure, but its one of the closest proxies we got, I kind group ARKK, XBI into those boats as well but both those are outperforming YTD. Cannabis is one of the few sectors like -20% YTD

Fox_Technicals

Some coiling going on at 40 on ARKK

buzzzzz1

If you would have invested in ARKK back in 2014, you would have nearly doubled your money by now. If you would have put the same money in SPX in 2014, you would have more than doubled your money.

danby457

I keep some ARKK in my portfolio as a hedge for if the world goes regarded

SureGovernment

Shouldn’t a tech fund be compared to a tech index of some sort? Soooo, the last five years the annual compound return of ARKK was -0.49 percent, DJUSTC returned 18.26 annually. Oooops big fucking oooops!

Rav_3d

You did notice what ARKK has done since it's peak, right? You realize Cathie has been "dumb money" for years, right? She's like Jim Cramer only slightly less harmful. Do your own homework.

kriptonicx

ARKK and NASDAQ aren't that comparable imo. The NASDAQ basically tracks the performance of profitable big tech companies. Where as ARKK is a fund which would be more fairly be benchmarked against unprofitable mid-cap tech since it tends not to hold many large or highly profitable companies. Although I agree, her total performance as of right now isn't great and like you I don't think much of her stock picks. I believe she was outperforming the NASDAQ by quite a margin a few years back, but I don't care enough to confirm that. Generally actively managed funds over longer periods should be expected to underperform broad market index funds, so her underperformance is no surprise. If she simply matched the performance of the S&P500 she'd be doing better than most fund managers. The "correct" way to use a fund like ARKK would be to make short to mid-term bets on speculative unprofitable tech. Anyone holding a long-term position in ARKK is allocating capital poorly.

Schmittfried

The point is that treasuries have lower returns for lower risk. The stock market has higher returns for higher risk. ARKK is lower returns for higher risk. See the issue?

Schmittfried

> Diversification is a real thing. Which you totally achieve by buying a small, underperforming segment of the entire market. Buying treasuries is diversification. Buying ARKK is not.

DispassionateObs

Not really. Tech stocks were destroyed only in 2022. ARKK has slightly underperformed the S&P 500 but it has *massively* underperformed the Nasdaq. Why is it underperforming a tech-heavy index? It doesn't look like the tech sector is doing badly, simply ARKK's individual picks are doing badly.

kriptonicx

\> Don’t love all of Cathy’s picks, but they did about what you would expect during rising interest rates This is exactly my position on her recent performance honestly. Being critical of ARKKs performance over the last couple of years is as stupid as being critical of the performance of a bank fund during the GFC. It's far less that Cathie has historically picked bad growth stocks, and far more that growth stocks have been utterly destroyed the last couple of years. I'm not really sure what people want from her... Was it reasonable to expect her to pivot ARKKs strategy from speculative growth fund to defensive growth in 2021 or something? And would that even be what ARKK investors would have wanted? ARKK investors are looking for high beta speculative growth and for better or worse that's exactly what ARKK gives investors exposure to.

HumbleSupernova

I'm not sure why you keep getting caught up on the whole ARKK thing. The S&P has always been the benchmark to beat for any sort of investing. If you aren't beating the S&P, you might as well invest entirely in the S&P.

thespringinherstep

I agree ARKK sucks. But not because of some irrelevant S&P comparison

DevilFucker

Would you prefer to compare it to something more similar like the tech heavy QQQ? Because compared to that the performance of ARKK is even worse.

thespringinherstep

7% is a LONG term estimate that is often used to gauge US equity risk premium. There is nothing magical about it. ARKK hasn’t even been around 10 years. If we’re talking about how good ARKK is as opposed to another innovation tech fund then you compare it to other tech funds or at least to a tech index. If you start comparing to other investment universes then you are having a strategic asset allocation conversation which again has nothing to do with Cathie Woods specifically.

thespringinherstep

What does SPY have to do with ARKK? I think ARKK is a bad fund but comparing it to S&P is puzzling. It’s literally a tech innovation fund, do you compare EM funds and debt funds and infrastructure funds to SP500 too?

DevilFucker

Since it’s creation ARKK has underperformed SPY by about 20%. Over the last 5 years ARKK is down 9% while SPY is up 53%.

MrSpaceCool

Wiping $2 billion off ARKK

kyleswitch

Joan of ARKK

MirrorAttack

Really says a lot about how overvalued NVDA is when even Cathy Wood won’t touch it. ARKK has a history of holding overvalued trash

Ok-Translator9972

A lot of world changing innovations make for poor investment categories. Buffett has eloquently made this point in relation to airlines. This is probably why ARKK is fatally flawed as an investment strategy.

Dildomuflin

ARK’s Cathie Wood Defends Missing Nvidia Rally: Tesla Is ‘Most Obvious’ AI Play https://stocks.apple.com/A-8XJ3G-xSPSeNhX1wfNxVg Talk about grapes are sour. Hahaha Cathie truly has to be one of the worst fund manager ever lmao. ARKK was Down 23% in 2021 and 67% in 2022

icescoop

Cathie from ARKK on defending missing NVDA rally: "TSLA is the most obvious AI play" lmao what a cuck

atdharris

Tthe $40 ceiling on ARKK is so incredibly tough to break through.

whyshw

I’m usually bullish but I’m definitely selective in opening any new bullish positions given the supercharged AI rally. Lately I picked up a bunch of ARKK as a play on PLTR & TSLA

timetopractice

How did Cathie's ARKK innovation ETF basically just ignore AI? Presumably she does this for a living, shouldn't she have been researching this and investing in innovation, isn't she supposed to be on the cutting edge? What a disaster!

GroundbreakingCow775

Chat GPT Version 3.0 Buys Wish Chat GPT Version 4.0 Buys ARKK

Vast_Cricket

Having lost a lot in tech stocks in 2000, I cashed out put in safe heaven. Today there are 305% of what was put in. Subsequent additional investment in ibond after frustrated with stock market anemic performance gained 275% in 20 years. Total is low 6 figures. The years of deflation there was no interest or low interest (e.g. 2018). Keep in mind there were turbulent 3 years where QQQ lost -75% cumulative effect (2000-2003). I could wait for msft or Intl to return. Msft took 16 years to recover. Pentium company still struggles to this date. We had Kevin Landis First Leader etf -75% loss (yesterdays ARKK equivalent) then. The effective return is actually not much different from muni GO bond. I already possed them already alredy.

hardcore_softie

Haha I remember that pic, and ARKK was down like 70% on the year when her fan got that pic with her.

no_idea_bout_that

solfaucet.com can generate 1 sol in a devnet wallet. Then you can imagine it's as valuable as your ARKK holding.

lululemon_fanboy

\> ARKK ditched chipmaker before a 160% surge added $500 billion