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Most Undervalued Stock in Basic Materials Sector
Most Undervalued Stocks From Basic Material Sector Algoma Steel(ASTL)
Algoma Steel (ASTL) is a massively undervalued deSPAC and here’s why (DD)
Algoma Steel (ASTL) is a Heck of a Steal (Long DD)
$ASTL $9.20 PPS, $1.35B market cap doing a $400M (almost 1/3) buyback between $8.75-$10.25
💰💰💰Good morning! #premarket #watchlist 06/15 $ASTL -strong earnings, $BCDA -US Patent on Imaging System for Targeting Cardiac Therapies, $BOXD -June 15, 2022: Oppenheimer 22nd Annual Consumer Growth and E-Commerce Virtual Conference, $CSCW -potential stock offering, $REV -no recent news
💰💰💰Good morning! #premarket #watchlist 06/15 $ASTL -strong earnings, $BCDA -US Patent on Imaging System for Targeting Cardiac Therapies, $BOXD -June 15, 2022: Oppenheimer 22nd Annual Consumer Growth and E-Commerce Virtual Conference, $CSCW -potential stock offering, $REV -no recent news
💰💰💰Good morning! #premarket #watchlist 06/15 $ASTL -strong earnings, $BCDA -US Patent on Imaging System for Targeting Cardiac Therapies, $BOXD -June 15, 2022: Oppenheimer 22nd Annual Consumer Growth and E-Commerce Virtual Conference, $CSCW -potential stock offering, $REV -no recent news
💰💰💰Good morning! #premarket #watchlist 06/15 $ASTL -strong earnings, $BCDA -US Patent on Imaging System for Targeting Cardiac Therapies, $BOXD -June 15, 2022: Oppenheimer 22nd Annual Consumer Growth and E-Commerce Virtual Conference, $CSCW -potential stock offering, $REV -no recent news
ASTL is a favorite with best valuation metrics and economic fundamentals.
Mentions
I have three big things I look for: \- **Where is the world moving:** An example of this for me is right now I'm researching desalination plants and trying to find what the big players might be once the USA clues in that it might be a good idea to not have droughts every year and they start building these down south. You can see how much more seriously folks in the middle east conflict take attacks on desalination plants vs. oil facilities. No water = no life. Given there's less and less and we need more and more I think that will be a big play. Then apply that logic. Write a hard sci fi book about what the world is gonna be like in 5/10/15/20 years. There have been movies about AI, drone armies, living on mars, etc... for decades. Try and hunt for those people trying to do cool shit before everyone else thinks of it. \- **Picks and shovels:** During the gold rush the people who made out like bandits were the ones selling the shovels to the people digging. 5N Plus (VNP.TO) is an example of this for me (not a penny stock, but not crazy pricey either). I know Canada is investing in space, renewables, tech, critical minerals, etc... so I looked into Canadian companies involved in these and am up 60% on this in 3 months. My next one I'll be looking for is suppliers for desalination plants. \- **Overreactions**: Again a Canadian perspective on this but US tariffs have CRANKED our steel and aluminum sector. When ASTL dropped to $4.5 I bought some and small bits of news brought it back up to $6, sold. Then it went back down, repeat. When everyone is running in the same direction they tend to run a bit too far sometimes and looking for those opportunities people have already identified then run away from can be a good buy in opportunity. Similarly I picked up MDA.TO in the 20s because they lost a contract, it's back up to 40ish now.
Ahhh my $ASTL play finally starting to look a little better
Why the hell is ASTL on here lol
ASTL gonna rip it. ☝️
If i were you i would look at $ASTL
$ASTL Tanking due to tariffs . Government backed steel products. Should see some nice gains once it recovers.
Do I buy LETFs: ASTL, SOFX, MSTU or go all in on RKT???
Does ASTL keep pumping back to $10 if Donny makes a deal with Canada?
Not really penny stocks but ASTL algoma steel is rising steady after the g7 meeting. It went from 8.40 to 9.29 cad. Expecting another large jump today same with CLF Cleveland cliffs, they own steelco which is in Hamilton Ontario. It made a decent jump today but I'm expecting a bigger rally tomorrow towards 7.90-8.00 usd.
Im completely regarded and my strategy has been to essentially do the opposite of what everyone tells me to but it’s been printing for me. Sold essentially every stock I held in early feb for obvious 🥭related reasons. Still sitting on mostly cash but bought oversold Cad steel company stocks with 5% of my value during the brief “50% tariffs on Canadian steel” claim when ASTL was at 2.20ish. Another 5ish% on TSLQ at 24 per share when everyone still though Tesla would soar due to its owner being the president. Just bought into CRON (Cad weed company) which is riskier and might not print but we will see. With my “do the opposite of what your intuitions tell you to do” strat I’m thinking about getting in on some American liquor company’s such as Jack daniels (bf.b) or maybe some aluminum company’s. Any thoughts fellow regards?
anyone gonna play ASTL earnings?
AMZN is probably the best megacap to buy right now and I like ASTL too for steel (caution it’s a deSPAC so carries stigma I’m sure)
May make a buck or two but just got pointed to ASTL Feb 16th call 12.50 and put 7.50 earnings are 14th-18th and price for those 2 are cheap especially with what just happened US STEEL (x)
5000 of those was the call spread, purchased in August along with the short puts as a pseudo risk reversal. Likely buying volume today and not selling by the big player. ASTL potentially has a fiduciary responsibility to explore M&A.
If you somehow had never heard of the X merger until today and you missed out, you’re in luck: go buy ASTL. Steel is cheap af
AMZN to 175 by January. (Yes I said it again, idgaf if the megas have been red.) If you want to buy trash buy CPNG PGY ASTL (acquisition proxy to X) Don’t short anything, shit goes up 92% of the time
To be fair it still took TWNK a little under 5 years to get real traction in the market. For those with patience UTZ, SEAT, SKIN, ASTL, JBI, etc are at reasonable prices, should see slow incremental growth, and may eventually get similar operational leverage/multiple expansion runs. Problem is you just never know if/when that could hit.
ASTL 🚀 I have balls of steel
I have a good amount: LC, ASTL, SELF, PFIE, CPLP If u have a specific thesis question about one of these please ask but it would be too hard to detail all of them
I'll pick stocks I'm not invested in: - ASTL (steel producer) - IP (packaging) - MOS (potash fertilizer)
The steel / met coal pricing is starting to look quite promising. From the resident [Coal Twitter expert](https://twitter.com/mfwarder/status/1671540783692886024): > PLV Met #coal held the 2018 highs at $230-ish as expected and have begun to creep higher across the board. > With quarterly budgets opening on July 1 and summer restocking season about to start, thinking Q3 averages ~$240-ish, with near term upside toward $300, depending on China. [Attached graph of the performance of different PLV futures contracts](https://i.imgur.com/TMEgo8P.png). I mentioned this same person's Tweet back in late April: > Also polite reminder Met #coal restocking season is drawing to a close. > This is seasonally normal price action, and will pick back up toward end of summer when buyers in India return to pick up post-monsoon season cargoes. Let me translate. PLV Met coal refers to pricing in the Asia Pacific region for high quality 'hard coking coal' (HCC). [It will correlate pretty well with domestic met coal pricing] There was a met 'restocking' season when countries/companies put in orders, which ended by May. Then we entered a seasonally weak period. And now starting July 1st there is a summer restocking season so we can expect prices to push back up. This person is saying the lows this early summer were near the highs back in 2018, which is bullish for the short and medium term. This should benefit $AMR, $BTU, $HCC, $METC, ... --- At the same time, steel Twitter is getting excited about pricing starting to turn around. CLF, X announcing price increases. X recently mentioned that they will have a large quantity of cash on their balance sheet that can be used for buybacks. ASTL made some disappointing remarks yesterday about needing more capex spending, but overall steel Twitter seems to be very happy. [Tweet showing August futures pricing racing up](https://twitter.com/aggresivevalue/status/1671880189184475137). I don't follow steel well but perhaps those figures might mean something to y'all.
All surface metrics that don’t show the full picture structural profitability of U.S Steel, though PEG can’t even be used in the steel industry as revenue estimates are hard more than 2 quarters out and so whatever ur using there is BS, P/FCF is also insanely unreliable looking forward cuz of the big swings in CNWC, P/S is only important for unprofitable SaaS players lmao, P/B is a metric used for banks and real estate and is surface level as the majority of USS assets are legacy while Algoma steel over the last 20 years has modernized throughout its line, and P/E is dumb as it includes depreciation which is not equivalent to maintenance capex for ASTL, skewing results significantly negative.
ASTL for common stocks and ASTLW for warrants, can be looked up on any brokerage quoting
ROCLW what was this groups earlier target that SPACd ASTL?
ASTL also good but not as cheap
It’s a steel company. Go look at what has happened to the price of steel and that is your answer. My thesis is you are buying ASTL here for the next cycle. It is about buying super cheap and hoping steel prices go up before financial distress. I believe the balance sheet gives you that safety. As of this morning it was trading for close to a Negative EV. It will make it to the next cycle. If FCF can stay even close to current numbers the yield is absolutely insane.
I don’t know. That’s not really my game. If you want growth, I think XBI and CIBR are good ways to play it. Unlike the FAANG, many cybersecurity names are still generating massive top line growth and the secular tailwinds are strong. I’m primarily a capital cycle investor. I like to buy really cheap stuff in sectors that have been starved of capital. Usually with the commodity prices near or below the marginal cost of production. Oil is an obvious play and should be bought aggressively on this pullback iMO. If you want risk and torque, look at the services stocks (VAL, NE). The Colombian and Canadian stocks are really cheap on a relative basis. Uranium, Tin and North American steel companies are also very interesting to my eye. I am heavily invested. ASTL is almost impossibly cheap. I also am looking to buy Europe at some point this winter. BASF, VW and Vonovia all super cheap.
hm part of me wants to use cash & buy into SKIN, STEM, ASTL given CPI is going down and things should start being less volatile but with shit like CVNA going up with the market I don't trust anything at the moment.
Company: Algoma Steel Grou... ($ASTL) Market Cap: $0.7B Revenue (L12M): $4.0B Profit Margin: 24.2% PE Ratio: 1.021 Dividend Yield: 2.9% EPS: 6.66 Return on Equity: 107.7% Beta: None Current Price: $6.91 Analyst Price Target: $14.6 (+111.3%) Want more info? Just reply with command + ticker: 1. status - short-term trend 2. funda - company fundamentals 3. zoomout - long-term trend 4. macro - macro trends (No ticker required) 5. vs - Compare performance of any two stocks/indices e.g AAPL vs TSLA, GOOGL vs SPY 6. help - see list of commands Examples: u/askstockbot status AAPL, u/askstockbot TSLA vs GOOGL
Personally I’m not done with Uranium. I plan to hold it and sell the whole bag when spot gets to $80. I will sell a bit of the position if the stocks run way ahead of the spot price (as I have been doing for 2 years now), but will hold my core position. As for steel, the time is near IMO. I don’t think you can go wrong over a 2-3 year period buying one of the producers with a good balance sheet. ASTL and X both have new EAF facilities coming online within 2 years, which provides an additional catalyst. If you look at STLD (EAF) vs X, STLD is a much more consistent business and is less reliant on the price of steel.
I made a small DD on ASTL, however I didnt buy it because their projected revenues are not so clear for future years
ASTL did a ton but am sure they are doing normal buybacks
I'm with you if SOFI dips to low 5s or below. I keep looking at ASTL waiting for 7.75 range. SKIN I'm already in with a 12.28 avg not wanting to buy more unless it goes to mid 10s. I picked up some DCFC this week too early but still adding. Have some IONQ and too much SLDP at too high avg. Will add more DNA if it goes to 2.50 or lower.
Adding ASTL now. 8 bucks is a good start. Will play the earnings bounce. If this thing has 2 more strong quarters with good cash flow we are golden. SKIN is still 12-15% more expensive than where I am comfortable. SoFi is load boat range close to 5 or sell 5p in future to get it cheaper. What else are we looking at?
ASTL is looking good here I will add in 10-15 cents dips
Hi man. Thanks for your DD. What do you think about the forecasted revenue decline the analyst have for ASTL?
What do you think on the heavy forecast revenue decline they have for ASTL? Im interested in buying but that is making me to have double thoughts
I now have small SKIN in the game. Also out of ASTL but getting the fomo as that thing rarely drops under 9.
Not too bad, still needs refinement. OBE and ASTL are the companies I'm looking at right now.
Problem with ASTL is it's a boss with high steel prices but has been bankrupt in the past. If you believe in elevated steel prices it will earn $4.5+ this year per share. More with buybacks happening
I agree that P/E is low across the sector, but I would challenge you to find a comparable company as low as ASTL. If you do, please let me know as I would likely invest in that as well.
Bought BBBY yesterday in the 19s and sold this morning above 29 used the proceeds to buy DNA around 3.40(chart is meh but might still run on a green day) and ASTL around 9.35 actually like Algoma steel as a fundamentally decent company after reading the ER - pays a dividend and the balance looks clean. Possible issue is union vote to take package...if union votes no...then it might be an issue
Agreed. There are depressed multiples across the steel industry and among many other commodity companies too. It’s not limited to just ASTL, although I would personally argue that the multiple on ASTL is particularly absurd especially given the fact they are transitioning to green operations (will reduce emissions by 70% IIRC) which generally carries an even higher multiple than traditional steel making.
I liked ASTL, but sold at 11 because the market just wasn't paying attention. In the clown market this Summer, no one is going to give two craps about a "boring" steel company when they could gamble on companies close to bankruptcy, sadly.
Great opportunity here, it’s hard to believe the valuation ASTL is trading at.
I gave up on ASTL recently and that's why it will moon. When it released earnings there was just no volume and no movement. No one cares it seems. Dividend raise will help but steel is getting wrecked. I am comfortable entering in high 7s
This earned almost half its EV in the last quarter alone. Can you say the same thing about CLF? I like CLF, don’t get me wrong. But I love ASTL at this valuation.
I’m super bullish on Algoma Steel (ASTL). Some notes below (all amounts are in USD or converted to USD): - Last quarter (June) they reported revenue of about $730M, Net Income of about $235M, and Adj. EBITDA of about $280M - Recently completed a $400M share repurchase that reduced the share count by 28% - Market cap is only about $1.0B and they have about $412M in net cash when you take their 6/30 balance and deduct the $400M repurchase that happened in July. This means the company has an EV of only about $600M - The company has a great cost structure in place and has taken a conservative approach to not end up caught with their pants down during the steel market declines of late. They contract out most of their revenue and based on the way they’ve described their order book it doesn’t sound like there is any shortage of customers. And although steel prices have come down, they still remain elevated from historical levels - The company is in the middle of a green transformation to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking, and they have major support from the Canadian government (financing for almost $330M of the $500M project). Justin Trudeau visited the headquarters himself and made an announcement about the deal. It represents a huge opportunity for Canada and specifically Ontario to reduce emissions It honestly baffles me to see the valuation this low. Even compared to peers, it’s massively underpriced. Sooner or later people will catch on.
I’m super bullish on Algoma Steel (ASTL; formerly LEGO before de-SPAC). Some notes below (all amounts are in USD or converted to USD): - Last quarter (June) they reported revenue of about $730M, Net Income of about $235M, and Adj. EBITDA of about $280M - Recently completed a $400M share repurchase that reduced the share count by 28% - Market cap is only about $1.0B and they have about $412M in net cash when you take their 6/30 balance and deduct the $400M repurchase that happened in July. This means the company has an EV of only about $600M - The company has a great cost structure in place and has taken a conservative approach to not end up caught with their pants down during the steel market declines of late. They contract out most of their revenue and based on the way they’ve described their order book it doesn’t sound like there is any shortage of customers. And although steel prices have come down, they still remain elevated from historical levels - The company is in the middle of a green transformation to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking, and they have major support from the Canadian government (financing for almost $330M of the $500M project). Justin Trudeau visited the headquarters himself and made an announcement about the deal. It represents a huge opportunity for Canada and specifically Ontario to reduce emissions It honestly baffles me to see the valuation this low. Even compared to peers, it’s massively underpriced. If this weren’t a SPAC it would be trading in the teens or higher. Sooner or later people will catch on.
I made $1.6 on ASTL calls. Had a sell order for my 7.5C for 1.75 and stock jumped to 9.35 yikes. Someone made 30 bucks quickly lol
u/GreenStreetEF please share a linked screenshot to your positions, if any, that you have in ASTL.
AMC.V Arizona metals Corp. Bought ar $1.05, sold around 7.. several thousand shares. I still have 300 but I think they have a good future, they own the land they're mining on and its a Canadian company. ASTL Algoma Steel, a lot of my customers have steel on their stamping presses from this company. They pay a dividend and I can see it going 50+.
Vitards like in no order steel shipping and oil. Tickers are ZIM CLF X PBT BPT PBR VTNR etc. Now Vitards are near capitulation as everything is taking a beating. If you think of entry now you will be with no bags and of course it can fall more. Most will give divvys and do buyback. ASTL is another not popular one but was a SPAC
Not sure how ASTL isn't a buy right now even after it's move up today In CAD dollars Market Cap = 1.5 billion, Cash = 914 million as of March 31st (likely around 1100 million as of today based on guidance), 400 million buyback in the works via SIB (30% of market cap) + another 5% buyback over the the next year via NCIB, P/E around 1.5, 0 debt.
ASTL  and DUNE 
ASTL but it's not truly beaten down.. lows were around $8 but they seem to be using cash for capacity rather than pay dividends and buybacks
well lmao as a canadian these arent small caps to me, im really into micro caps from the TSX.v i guess. dont wanna get ban from here for talking about small caps company but im gonna do it anyway coz its 5am in the daily thread and mods gotta give us some slack. VEV- about to go online with a new plant in washington state, Ev buses and trucks. VVPR- MSA with toyota to convert ICE landcruiser in EV, Aim at the mining market. GDNPF- Bioplastic, good growth at decent value prices. VLD- Additive manufacturing, they printed the new engine from Space X and has a bunch of great customers. RDW, MDALF- Two space plays, gonna benefit from the paradigm change coming with starship. ASTL- Steelmaking in Ontario ZMDTF- digital Ads, growth at value prices. and i could go on.
Got 10 LGTOW at 35 cents lol, ask was at 1 and no one took bait. Now that I think this is a decent deal but not an awesome one. If warrants behave like ASTL it should clear 1.25 or so
Amazing ASTL team right??? Everything is halted
My positions rn: CROX, ZG, STRL, SNP, BABA, ASTL this is a small count tho
Have you ever seen an option price and said this will print... Nov 7.5 C for ASTL at 2.3 or 2.4, I feel like going in hard ... Usually my options plays are .1% of portfolio this I want to go 2%
Anyone thinking of going heavy in ASTL thinking they smash earnings???
Whatever I didn't pull trigger on trended up. PBR BPT ZIM .... Only ASTL is around 9.70 which I want to open a position in.
But ASTL is not mooning... I think if they deliver few more Qs we should be good
Does anyone love ASTL Algoma Steel They are generating lots of cash and have 1.87% Divy. If it goes this way they should either do some buyback or offer a larger dividend.
There are so many names. Coal. Aluminum. Steel. Grains. Fertilizer. $ASTLW looks awesome. Warrants for stock options in $ASTL.
ASTL is profitable but it isn't terribly beaten down.
I prefer to buy institutionally-backed SPACs with notable sponsors (SPAC vets, specialist experts in their field, Fortune 200 C-suite execs) and low splits (1/3 or less). That is no guarantee of success either (which is why diversification is essential), but it improves your chances of landing a worthwhile LT hold target. On the other hand, some of the least notable SPACs like DWAC (sponsored by the same guy as ZGYH, the latest SPAC to liquidate) and LEGO/ASTL (sponsored by the last team to liquidated before that with ALGR when their TGI Fridays deal fell through due to COVID) have landed some of the most successful targets of post-bubble 2021. So you never know.
Algoma steel, ASTL, Trading at 1x, great earnings, yet no volume at all. With the cost of steel where it is, I can't believe it's so cheap. Former SPAC under LEGO.
Yes definitely an important factor. I think the rise in retail investing is one as well however even if I'm wrong on that it doesn't change that green stocks are up across the board, technology bubbles help speed the adoption of that technology, and I'm happy to do my part by voting with my dollar which is in no way mutually exclusive with voting, volunteering, or any other actions I take to help the environment. I do agree with Bozofreak that government has an important role to play and investing in green stocks won't stop climate change single handedly. Perhaps my favorite investment this year is ASTL, it got $306M from the SPAC, is getting another $420M from the Canadian government, and Algoma switching to an electric arc furnace will reduce their GHG emissions enough make the entire Provence of Ontario achieve its 2030 Paris Climate Agreement target and would get Canada 11% of the way there.
when to buy ASTL? wait for X to find support?
I made about 15% on $ASTL from Tuesday PM til Thursday close on the run-up to earnings. It's still up about 8-10% from Tuesday. The un doesn't always happen after the earnings post.
It looks like companies that make money are out of favor. ASTL posts massive numbers and declines. BLNK posts revenues smaller than my play account and moons. Crazy. Back to ASTLW… that might be the top. If you diamond handed, congrats… but you may want to trim some here.
ORGN had no revenue to report and ASTL has no investor presentation guidance so canmt really do much with that. Thanks for the heads up!
ASTL and ORGN numbers looked good. Just tossing that out there. Thanks!
OPFI, ASTL, SFT, RIDE, the flying taxi companies.
Congrats to everyone holding ASTL (LEGO) with me.
Steel and other inflation-related plays are doing great today. And ASTL might be one of the few de-SPACs that actually pencil out as a legit value play. I don't own any but if I wasn't already loaded up on similar stuff I'd look hard at buying it.
ASTL (formerly LEGO) with a nice pre-earnings pump
$ASTL - earnings play on Thursday AH. $X, $CLF, and $NUE all popped on their most recent earnings
$ASTL's (formerly $LEGO) post-closing S-1 is effective today https://twitter.com/SPACtrack/status/1457674966896349187?t=0ijZbD8Ggmr3UPxBJR1IHQ&s=19