DB

gwrichardson42

My Fed meeting take: You are on your own, don't expect help from the Fed going forward. Also, the MU price target upgrade from DB was completely fucked over by this meeting.

fn_gpsguy

Will you have a defined benefit (DB) pension? Rather than the benefit being based on your contributions (like your 457b), it’s based on a formula. If so, I never counted that contribution (7% in your case) as part of my saving/investment rate. I never maxed out contributions that my 457b - I tried to save as much as I/we could and live below my means. I’ve been retired for 6+ years and live comfortably with on my DB pension alone. Assuming you’ll have a DB pension, you might want to do some forecasting to see how much extra you’ll need to support yourself (or family) in retirement. You might discover that you are oversaving. :-)

spez_eats_nazi_ass

Oracle RAC was the shit though. Nothing on prem outside z/os on DB2 comes close to that.

StrategyUnlikely398

It is. MACRS and DB relate to tax depreciation, not economic depreciation

StrategyUnlikely398

DB is for declining basis and for douche bag

throwawaynbad

How? I'm in broad-market ETFs, and my DB pension is managed for me. Is there a low-cost option that does total market ex upcoming AI IPOs?

FaithlessnessIcy3875

Is MDB fucked by this new Azure DB?

PrestigiousAccess765

Their numbers weren‘t even that good. And everyone who works in Tech knows that you cannot compare Snowflake (which eassentially is a DB) with other SaaS companies who sell just a beautiful UI

Deadsea3132

Uhh who the fuck still uses mongo DB? Lmao

Fancy_Cattle_5914

I love how manipulated earnings reports are because we just saw Mongo DB swing an entire 50% on their print. 50%!!!!

Fancy_Cattle_5914

I love how manipulated earnings reports are because we just saw Mongo DB swing an entire 50% on their print. 50%!!!!!

Gamplato

ML in DB is definitely a good experience. Since our data is Snowflake, we use their end to end ML and it’s super good…but this wasn’t always the case, I hear. The Databricks applied AI is not close to Snowflake. We tried their coding agent recently just to stay up on things. It was actually shocking how immature it felt in comparison to Snowflake.

ShanghaiBebop

Databricks and snowflake is very much converging on the same core things.  Databricks has better AI and classic ML workflows integrated with their platform. snowflake has a better first class warehouse experience OOTB.  Bigquery imo is pretty far behind both of them.  Both DB and SNOW will see significant rev growth acceleration from AI though, since agents will need to query real enterprise data to keep themselves grounded in reality, and is drastically dropping the barrier to querying data. 

borimed1

https://www.corsair.com/us/en/s/corsair-pro?srsltid=AfmBOoqlysBEoI6u9KDWqFIiWpEsU27pccCYgKclV3JSKGgKTcMQa4DB

swflcape

Makes sense that banks (DB) with high exposure to emerging markets would pump right when the crude shortages start being realized…

luciferian11

**Iranian Official: No Draft Agreement With the U.S. Exists - Use ChatGPT for translate - published couple of minutes ago (https://farsnews.ir/mohamadahmadi89/1779456834742971054/%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%86%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%B3-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA)** \- The source also stated that recent reports about a possible draft agreement between Iran and the U.S. are untrue and merely media speculation. \- According to the source, the visits by Pakistani officials to Iran are aimed at strengthening Islamabad’s mediation efforts and role, as well as preventing further escalation of tensions. \- The source emphasized that Tehran still considers the U.S. demands excessive and unreasonable, and believes that the main obstacle in the negotiations lies in Washington, not Tehran.

mistiquefog

As it appears the company has targeted women who took maternity benefits recently or are on it. I got to know this and shorted the stock before the results were declared. I recovered 10 years of my turbo tax and quick books expenses and made enough profit to shut down business and retire:--- Thanks SUSUAAN POOPARZI Intuit’s recent operational moves signal deep structural trouble. Reports that they targeted employees on maternity benefits during layoffs point to an incredibly dire internal situation. Add the fact that the CEO and founders have been aggressively dumping shares for years, and the writing was on the wall—so I shorted the stock before earnings. It got me thinking: if tech giants are using LLMs to build their software, why pay them a premium to middleman the code? I used **Claude** to completely replicate and replace my QuickBooks workflow with a self-hosted engine. # The $0/Month Architecture * **Data Layer:** A single, local flat-file database (SQLite/DuckDB). No complex database server overhead. * **Redundancy:** Automated scripts encrypt the file and push backups to two independent cloud locations (AWS S3 and Google Drive). * **Ingestion:** Claude orchestrates the pipelines, handles transaction parsing, and builds custom analytical queries. # Why This Beats QuickBooks * **Cost:** Shipped a compounding $1,300+/year subscription down to **$0 to $5/month** in minor cloud storage fees. * **Data Sovereignty:** Zero vendor lock-in. Financial data lives locally under direct, encrypted custody—not siloed in Intuit's ecosystem. * **Uncapped Analytics:** QuickBooks locks custom reporting behind a $275/month paywall. With a local flat DB, I have raw SQL control to pipe data straight into Python (pandas/numpy) for deep data science, trend analysis, and custom visualizations. **The Trade-Off:** I handle the pipeline maintenance. If a bank changes its CSV export format, I manually tweak the script.

Status-Put8162


AQOntCan

I am so mad at myself for investing heavily in broad market etfs. I have a DB pension. Why the fuck wasn't I more bold

mighty_sys_admin

Nice!! What grinder? I'm running the Lelit Elizabeth (DB) with a DF64

PotentialUnlikely908

Hello DB: It's the other way around. Malkiel was writing the Random Walk theory several years before Bogle invented Vanguard. Bogel likely read Malkiel's work in developing his index idea. If you can get your hands on "The Money Game" (1968) by 'Adam Smith' you will find a chapter from that time that talks about the potential impact of Malkiel's thinking. And I'd recommend The Money Game for perspective on investing rather than strategy. It's amazing how little fundamental things change over 60 years.

Plastic_Barracuda711

Not a SOFI shill, but just comparing the revenue growth rates, SOFI is much higher - almost 3 times higher (3 yr revenue growth rate 63.42% vs 22.31% for DB). Sure its still expensive comparatively even at this price, but if they can maintain this growth, I think this price can be justified. You don't think so?

Away_Cancel_5208

$BNTX here are the abstracts they submitted * “First report of efficacy and safety results from a phase 2 trial evaluating BNT327/PM8002 plus chemotherapy as first-line treatment in unresectable malignant mesothelioma.” * “DB-1311/BNT324 (a novel B7H3 ADC) in patients with castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC).” * “First-in-human phase I/II trial evaluating BNT142, a first-in-class mRNA encoded, bispecific antibody targeting Claudin 6 (CLDN6) and CD3, in patients with CLDN6-positive advanced solid tumors.” * “A global Phase 3 double-blind, randomized trial of BNT327/PM8002 plus chemotherapy compared to atezolizumab plus chemo in patients with first-line extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC).”

NoProfessional4650

BofA raised their MU PT to $950 lol. Second big bank to capitulate after DB.

Scared-Signature-452

DB are total cooks lol edit: crooks!! crooks !!

RJ5R

All this time I thought DB stood for Dual Bongs.

IshinkaiSensei

DB? never heard of it.

Paraone3

DB Yes how do you value a small cap that has jumped into a multi billion dollar market with both feet and has ground breaking IP at both ends of the spectrum in Payload and User Terminal for Space Comms , maybe the big boys are noticing and millions of investors

Paraone3

DB Yes howdo you value a Small Cap that has jumped both feet into a multi billion dollar market with ground breaking IP , are we seeing the next UK Unicorn Plus ?

Paraone3

HI DB I thought that we might follow the yanks this morning but not to the realms of £1.20 , yes the market has finally woken up to the vast potential of Ensilicas IP and could we see £2 by month end .

keszocaj

[Mine!](https://i.giphy.com/DB2oahQFa0qeQ.webp)

PossibleSecretary524

i am glad you brought this up, i feel Eu is basically pulling out something similar to us 'big short' - since the most of wealth is concentrated in real estate and people in EU are regulation blocked from the best investment tools 'for their own good' it is easy for client banks to create a situation where real estate markets are constantly inflated. Germany and banks like DB are cornerstones of the whole EU economy, smaller countries deregulate mortgage process more and more, which creates higher prices, I am sure it will end well (no)

just_some_guy034


Zipski577

Even if DB plans were already a minority by *count* in 2008, they were not a minority by market impact until after the financial crisis. DC plans now hold 6x more equity dollars than DB plans, and this dominance did not exist pre-2008. [This chart](https://imgur.com/a/RnKZ9Ik) shows how dynamic has shifted - and how DC $ is heavily weighted in equities.

Zipski577

There is essentially no money in defined-benefit plans anymore, the standard and most money is in defined-contribution plans now. risk has shifted over the last 15-20 years. Under DB plans, pension managers decided when to invest and funding levels fluctuated w/ interest rates and market conditions. The managers could also reduce equity exposure as the environment changed. Under DC plans, which dominate now, employees contribute every paycheck regardless of market conditions… making contributions to equity markets automatic and continuous. DC plans buy through volatility and rebalance into equities after declines. Retirement funds are no longer sensitive to interest rates or other factors, and the newer model ensures that there will be steady demand for equities. Also, the wealth gap is larger and top 1% owns a larger allocation of the total market cap then ever before. And, the average shareholder is 65 years old so for these reasons, consumer confidence is essentially meaningless in market terms.

LastPipOnEarth

If you want to wait 15-20 years then go for it. DB also said 2-3 years ago that Gold will be above 10,000€ after 2030. 

LordFaquaad

You mean DB plans? There were also quite a few failures/ frauds. You also were just tied to the hip with your company so no job hopping. Vesting would also take a long time

Spear_n_Magic_Helmet

eh if you want my Software Engineer Real Take those guys were fkn brain dead. They were using Temu AWS (which no AI has been trained on) with zero guardrails on their agent. Oh and Temu AWS will delete your backups when you drop a DB.

corundum9

I picked PR who has a much better acreage position in the DB and is significantly more nimble. Up over 65% in the last 6 months. I'm sure SM is up 30 some percent in the same time frame just like most of the other smaller Permian players. That's more indicative of a rise in earnings potential with commodity price, not because SM is actually a good company who know what they are doing.

BenDover7799

Neither does cursor have the personnel to create competing AI model, all they are doing is, repackage a white labelled chinese open source model (kimi by moonshot) effectively bringing their whole capability to just being a VSCode fork with some vector DB for RAG.

_DoubleBubbler_

Well don’t beat yourself up about it as we’ve all been there. And as you say, profit is profit! I am not looking at anything new currently but my current DB selection is ENSI/ENSIF, EVTL, IES/IESVF, LUNR, MDAI, SESG and RDDT. Those are my more adventurous investments and I spread risk with some index trackers and income stocks amongst other things.

crimeo

Like I said, the technology to not double edit a shared central database is 50+ years old. Nobody has to split anything by section etc they can all offer all tickets and check the DB if another competitor sold it before giving a green light to their own buyer

throwaway9gk0k4k569

I'm going to go get my box of CueCats out of the closet. I'm sure I still have a DB9 serial port here somewhere.

california_explorer

Are you thinking ORCL is not a viable AI company? I've owned ORCL as a slow and steady enterprise software company. Decided to hang on even as they transitioned to full-fledged hyperscaling company and now layering with AI hyperscaling. If not ORCL, which AI companies do you think have higher upside for the next 3-5 years? ORCL is not a pure AI hyperscaling company since it still makes a ton of money in ERP/DB licensing but it sure has bet a ton of money towards it.

Captobvious75

They all have DB pension plans so they aren’t relying on that for retirement

jakderrida

It's actually one of the 10-points referenced in the image Trump posted. As is the right to enrich as much Uranium as they want however much they want. I REALLY wish Western media would post up the 10-point plan. I think after Trump attacked CNN for posting an article with the translations, the other news providers backed off. Wall Street Journal even had them up, but are paywalled. If need be, just ask one of the 3 top LLM services. (ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini) If you can get this link translated through your browser, you can see them. [https://nournews.ir/fa/news/308457/10-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF](https://nournews.ir/fa/news/308457/10-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D9%BE%DB%8C%D8%B4%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF)

Timbo1994

>How are you interpreting this shift into the long end of the curve? People with real money are getting older so buying lower duration. Similarly DB pension schemes now only need to buy the short end. Equities have done so well in recent decades that many people don't want to buy long-dated bonds, other than forced buyers like insurers. As perception that equities will always win over 10-20 years. Additionally inflation fears for the 2030s and 2040s - eg due to climate change/debt crises really coming home to roost. Means investors demand a greater nominal return for bonds that cover that period.

PursuitTravel

No idea why someone is downvoting the idea of a DB plan here. It's absolutely the correct suggestion depending on the number, age, and salaries of employees. And it has nothing to do with life insurance (which I bet is why some know-nothing moron downvoted it).

Austin_Destroyer

Did DB Weiss and David Benioff write today's market script? Because my expectations are subverted and the finished product fucking sucks.

Fastenaljoe

IUL properly structured and funded. No limit there. Check it out I do them all the time. Min DB max accumulation per irs code 7702

c-u-in-da-ballpit

Please build a calendly alternative in a single morning. Remember to include - API integration across Google Calendar, Microsoft Graph, and Apple CalDAV — three separate protocols, three separate auth flows, three separate deprecation cycles you don’t control - Bi-directional sync with real-time conflict detection across all three simultaneously, accounting for propagation delays where a booked event hasn’t yet appeared in the calendar API - Distributed concurrency control so two people hitting the same open slot at the same millisecond don’t both get a confirmation email - Booking atomically touches Postgres, Redis, a job queue, a calendar API, a video conferencing API, and an email provider — partial failure at any step leaves corrupted state - Timezone resolution across every UTC offset on Earth including half-hour zones, DST transitions, and governments that change their DST rules with weeks of notice - Availability logic that simultaneously enforces buffer times, minimum notice windows, maximum advance booking, daily meeting caps, per-day custom hours, and date-specific overrides without any combination breaking - Round-robin assignment with fairness weighting, capacity limits, and account ownership routing that stays correct across cancellations, no-shows, and reschedules - An embeddable widget that runs sandboxed inside iframes on customer websites - Zoom, Teams, and Meet auto-link generation with unique credentials per meeting - Stripe integration with refund logic, failed payment handling, and no ambiguous confirmed/unconfirmed booking state - Salesforce and HubSpot sync that logs meetings on their API versioning schedule - Webhook delivery with retry queues, exponential backoff, dead letter queues, and idempotent replay - Reminder sequences that are atomically cancelled when a meeting is cancelled 30 minutes before the job fires, across a distributed queue - GDPR deletion covering your primary DB, backups, analytics, third-party logs, and audit trails - SOC 2 Type II continuous evidence collection, access reviews, and incident response

clicktheroad

Becoming a millionaire requires distribution. Creating an app just for yourself and dropping a subscription is a different topic. Nobody claims that building a company is easier atm. But thinking that your Claude code can’t one shot Calendly is pure ignorance. It’s merely a frontend and a serveless function connected to Google Calendar with some free of charge DB like neon. It’s a 3-4 hours job for such a narrow use case app

Leading-Inspector544

I would point out that Microsoft males deploying network architectures substantially easier. By and large, no endless IAM struggled, private link extends to their DB services, etc.

Eliav_1991

this is the part people keep missing. Blackstone's CEO just personally dropped $75M into their own real estate fund like a week ago. if he thought the ship was going down he wouldnt be loading up with his own money. also Deutsche Bank's 20-F from this month shows strong profit growth and they hiked dividends 50%. they also just raised $1B in senior notes in February. if counterparties thought DB was the next Lehman they wouldnt be lending to them at those terms. OP's thesis is solid on the structural similarities but the leverage ratios and capital requirements are genuinely different post Basel III. the risk is real but its not the same systemic "everyone is connected to everyone" web that blew up in 08

Full_Pear449

DB YTD is off 27% thats why

flyingdutchmnn

Why because first day reaction to iran; fear of the natural gas crisis (inflation) in Europe had the DAX down the worst of all, and DB the biggest loser of the entire index. Idk why you would try to time a random day that Mag7 might bounce back (and briefly at that). One thing was predictable and that was that energy stocks would go up, and certain euro stocks down in reaction to an ongoing event. It'll continue until it's over and theres no way it's over soon. Mag7 calls are a waste of money if you ask me

Daz_Didge

I still own MS but I am not sure if their future is that great.  They are in the luck to have compute but they are so slow and do so many wrong decisions lately.  Windows is iterating into shiternity, I have not used a windows server or a MS SQL DB in the last 10 years, Azure is way to expensive and bloated, hardware is replaceable. So what stays is vendor lock and AI compute. 

_Doomer_Wojack_

Interesting financials are down … something is brewing $DB $C $TUR $UCO connect the dots

Cinq_A_Sept

I’m in. DB puts tomorrow.

IsThatWhatSheSaidTho


T-WrecksArms

I’ve got puts on DB purely because of the volume from last week. Thanks for the reassurance!

_Doomer_Wojack_

I’m in the deep end with puts baby. If 🥭 actually follows through, my puts will print. But it will also be the global depression so I might have to quickly move my gains to Swiss franc or something asap DB $20 puts July. TUR $27 puts May. C $48 puts July.

T-WrecksArms

I have puts on DB. I am… winning…????… World economy is fuk

KeepingItSecure

Look at a graph of DB from 2003 to current day and look at its previous rally from 05-07 before the crash. Compared to today? A tiny dip

_Doomer_Wojack_

I already got puts on the piece of shit banks $C $ DB

TrashChickenWagon

A lot are cloud hybrid. They have a cloud footprint but maintain a DC for a lot of their environments. They will have a mix of services based on cost and convenience. For example, source control. It is much cheaper to have a hundred devs on locally hosted GitLab then switch to Azure Dev Ops. Right at 3x the money. So SSO is managed in AWS or Azure but the dev environment is hosted in a DC. Things that require heavy compute like a DB or K8 cluster are avoided because you can get way more compute cycles per dollar and more accurately predict your expenses, if you host it yourself. With VMWare increasing licenses by 400% it just doesn’t make financial sense to keep everything in DC. Not only do you eliminate cost but also the extra overhead of Disaster Recovery or geolocation redundancy. That also leads to a headcount reduction. Sorry this is so long!

_Doomer_Wojack_

Mmmm I’m literally window shopping financial banks buying July puts here and there ….channeling my inner burrry got $DB $C who’s next

Content-Pop-690

Why don’t u read my comment again airhead… literally said I don’t know if DB is going to 0, implying it’s a major bank that is not hitting 0. Holy fuck you’re stupid

_Doomer_Wojack_

Currently shorting DB and Citi with those deep OTM puts like Burry circa '08. Iran currently speedrunning "Pokémon catch 'em all" on Saudi & UAE refineries, Hormuz looking like a choke point porno. Oil rips to $180, $220 =banks get a call from Margin. My puts either moon or expire worthless while I eat ramen. Inshallah

_Doomer_Wojack_

HERE ME OUT: Channeling my inner Burry: shorting $DB and $C with those far OTM puts like they're 2008 CDOs reborn. Meanwhile Iran's out here treating Gulf refineries like a goddamn Pokémon gym badge hunt…gotta catch 'em all, set 'em ablaze, choke Hormuz harder than my wife's lawyer. Oil to $200/bbl? Financials bleeding out in margin calls? I'm not saying it's the Big Short 2: Electric Boogaloo... but my puts are printing while everyone else prays for de-escalation. YOLO or die trying, regards. 🚀🛢️🐻🌈

Gabriele25

DB is not very much exposed to EMs, at least not compared to Standard Chartered, HSBC, Santander, BBVA…

GisScreamingInside

In other news, DB is up solid today.

Content-Pop-690

That’s one of the few good reasons for this short. You short a company that’s a falling knife already. However, I don’t know if DB is going to 0.

Celtic_Legend

Here is the DD on DB Deutsche bank can be read as Deuce Bank. What does "taking a deuece" mean? Taking a shit. Thus deutsche = shit. Thus, the bank is shit and gave out shit loans and will default so we can make $$ on its subsequent crash.

GnarlyBear

You would get better odds at any horse track in the world compared to this shot. Not even 10x and you are relying on DB and developing economics disappearing?

_Doomer_Wojack_

Fair points honestly. But you’re thinking about this like a credit analyst when it’s a sentiment trade. Credit Suisse didn’t collapse because someone mapped their exact loan book. It collapsed because the market decided it might have problems and counterparties pulled exposure in a self fulfilling spiral. SVB same thing. Headline, panic, bank run, done. You’re right nobody knows DB’s exact EM breakdown. But that opacity is the point. $35 billion equity under $1.4 trillion in assets and a $40 trillion derivatives book nobody can fully see into. You don’t need to know the exact exposure. You just need the market to start asking the questions you just asked. Once those questions hit Bloomberg terminals instead of Reddit the stock doesn’t wait for answers

Leftoverofferings

Are you the guy shorting DB? I read that post and think it might be a move for me.

_Doomer_Wojack_

The days coming where CNBC starts talking about questionable $DB teetering on the brink again .. I feel it in my bones

_Doomer_Wojack_

Europe getting skullfucked by energy prices while Germany speedruns turning into a third-world LARP zone. Factories closing faster than my ex’s legs when the rent’s due. $DB still sitting on a dumpster fire of CRE trash, green energy cope loans, and whatever other euro-nerd bags they’ve been hoarding since 2008. One more ugly headline and this zombie bank finally gets the dirt nap it deserves. YOLO’d July 20 puts because apparently I hate money and love pain. If oil keeps doing cocaine we feast like regarded kings. If not, enjoy the bags, autists. Not advice. Just pure wsb schizophrenia😘

DrSOGU

How much emerging market debt is DB really holding, as a percentage of their total debt holdings?

Ok_Cow3138

This is remarkably good work for WSB. The entire thesis seems like hyperbole but is remarkably correct. I’m next-to-certain you’re gonna get wiped out. Buying DB calls now.

MrLeaps

Someone bought $608k worth of the $27 strike puts exp 4/17 this morning for what it’s worth, this could be a pretty good play https://financhle.com/company/DB/options/O:DB260417P00027000?day=2026-03-19

Everly-Mccart

All this just for DB to drop 30% 💀

babyd42

There's zero volume on DB options. Who will you sell to?

CallLivesMatter

>Guess who holds mountains of emerging market loan exposure? How much does DB actually hold? (This is a trick question because they don’t break their loan book out by region so you don’t really know this) *Which* emerging markets, Asia, Africa, Latin America? Those are three distinct regions whose risks are not necessarily correlated to one another. How much of this heretofore unknown exposure is through private credit funds that borrowed from DB and that hold diverse assets across stable, mature markets with a sliver of capital allocated to EM? How many of these funds are pure play EM credit? How much of the debt is sovereign vs private? How much of the sovereign is backstopped by promises from the IMF? How much is collateralized by real assets? You’ve got like 1/3 of a thesis here, which is still about 3/4 more than most of the nonsense that gets posted here daily. But it relies on a number of triggers that only work if your assumptions about the underlying exposures is correct. And to be clear *you do not have the information about said exposures.* You have guesses and inferences, which maybe is enough. Maybe.

Big-Transition-6065

On top of that DB has to pay financial government in Germany 29 Billion EUR due to the Cum-Ex scandal, probably already in the reserves but not all of the needed amount.

waterpup99

Where is the DB DD? Oh. You'd didn't do any? Shorting Deutsche Bank based on the 2023 "solvency crisis" playbook is a risky bet in 2026. Back in 2023, DB was a "recovery story" vulnerable to contagion; today, it’s an "execution play" coming off its most profitable year in nearly two decades (€7.1B net profit in 2025). With a 14.2% CET1 ratio and €260B in liquid assets, its reserves are significantly deeper than during the Credit Suisse collapse. The recent 7% dip isn’t a solvency red flag but a specific market "stress test" of the $30B private credit portfolio disclosed in the March 2026 annual report—a portfolio management claims is 73% investment-grade with conservative 65% advance rates. While the Iran conflict has spiked Brent crude to $115 and created macro-uncertainty for European growth, this is a systemic headwind for all EU lenders, not a DB-specific death spiral. In fact, higher-for-longer rates driven by Iran-related inflation could actually bolster DB’s net interest income, provided the "shadow banking" sector doesn't see a correlated default. Shorting here assumes a 2016-style liquidity trap

Awuxy

Shorting DB and JPM before credit market crunch hits next Thursday

_Doomer_Wojack_

$DB won’t like this one bit

_Doomer_Wojack_

I always had the desire and lust to short a piece of shit bank ever since watching the big short when I was a young lad. But you are right. DB crisis means Euro crisis =contagion across the pond. I’ll probably look into more of this and become a poor version of Michael Burry

_Doomer_Wojack_

I always had the desire and lust to short a piece of shit bank ever since watching the big short when I was a young lad. But you are right. DB crisis means Euro crisis =contagion across the pond. I’ll probably look into more of this and become a poor version of Michael Burry

Bilo-Akai-

*"$6,500 on 100 contracts. If DB hits $15 these are worth $50K+. If I’m wrong I lose $6,500 and learn nothing because I’ll do it again."* Godspeed OP, that's the spirit

DaStompa

Maybe maybe not There's a 100% chance that there is a wild amount of money laundering traveling through DB at this very moment with multiple wars going. If any whistleblower gets traction this'll print.

Defiant_Regular3738

And DB is more a criminal enterprise than traditional bank. Lots of rich assholes still. Som looking to leave the Middle East too.

_Doomer_Wojack_

DB going to single digits my boy where it belongs

Broad-Belt-5888

Good idea but I think you’re late. DB already down 20% this month

Puzzled-Service5889

always love a short on DB which is a truly awful company that has always been terribly managed however..... we could have a vertical yield curve later in the year that would be a bonanza for any surviving banks

Full_Pear449

Bank do it all the time. I sleep very very well every night. Traded 25+ years for a Primary Dealer, you learn the ins and outs very quickly. Retired at 50, and yes, there were some hairy, scary days along the line. Worst was 2008-2010, we were short Leh, MS, ML, AIG, CS, DB, C, and a few others. The other play was CDO's, there were multiple ways to play that. BUT, intelligence and research prevailed.

sephirothFFVII

No, not in half. The reporting takes one team to generate and they typically have highly specialized procedures in place and, sadly, a lot of excel spreadsheets (back ended by larger DB tools). You can't cut those teams completely and they already run pretty lean. Even then, they're not huge so if you could it's not a lot of headcount you'd save by having fewer actuaries doing the financial reporting.

No_Current3675

Nah bro. I ain't teaching an mf basic DB shit. Can't model data GTFO.