FAB
First Trust Multi Cap Value AlphaDEX® Fund
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XFAB DD: the European chip foundry that just went viral, and the actual bull case sitting underneath the hype 🇪🇺🔌
$XFAB DD: the European chip foundry that just went viral, and the actual bull case sitting underneath the hype 🇪🇺🔌
$XFAB DD: the European chip foundry that just went viral, and the actual bull case sitting underneath the hype 🇪🇺🔌
$SVCO one for your watchlist, insane partnerships and micron has a stake
Svco worth a spot on your watchlist insane partnerships and micron has a stake
10 points that identify a successful investment that High Tide inc owns
10 points that identify a successful investment that High Tide inc owns
10 points that identify a successful investment that High Tide owns
10 points that identify a successful investment that High Tide owns
High Tide Subsidiary FAB CBD Launches Subscribe-and-Save Discount Program in the U.S. Market
Value Buying and War Profiteering with this Intel INTC bull(shit)ish DD
HITI - CEO Interview (ATB 10th Annual Institutional Investor Conference)
HITI - CEO Interview (ATB 10th Annual Institutional Investor Conference)
High Tide Inc - an underrated, under the radar gem of a cannabis company trading at a 20% discount.
High Tide is trading at a discount. Want to slide into cannabis? Consider this underrated, undervalued, under the radar gem.
High Tide Inc (HITI) is trading at a discount roughy now. Wanna get into cannabis? Consider this undervalued, underrated, under the radar gem. DD below.
High Tide HITI - the most undervalued cannabis stock on Nasdaq
Why You Should Short The Intel Fab Play
Mentions
so fabrinet crushed earnings and dumps right? yup - makes perfect sense for this scam ass market. it has the word FAB in it. It's supposed to be FABULOUS DAHLING!
Kv cache works against your thesis too. The cache requires memory. If you release a model to a userbase. The users each will use KV cache = memory. Compute power growth far exceeds memory capacity growth. Your describing another massive bottleneck they Memory allieviates. HBM is the most important component in the industry. It enables everything to work. micron what are they doing? Building the largest FAB in the North America currently(New York). And collaborating with Sk Hynix for an HBM stacking fab in Indiana. gL bro they are scaling up production of memory. They get 90% margin currently.
TSMC FOLLOWING JAPAN EARTHQUAKE: WE ARE INSPECTING EQUIPMENT AT KUMAMOTO FAB, AND CONDUCTING RECOVERY. WE EXPECTS INSPECTIONS AND CALIBRATIONS TO TAKE SOME TIME. $TSM ... God lost money on semis too
A FAB takes about 5 years to get up and qualified. If you need product in less time than that, you gotta buy.
NTP on NY FAB very soon.
This is what intel did before falling behind and couldn't catch up because of all the patent advantage TSM built up over the years. + they had Apple and other large tech companies fronting the CAPEX for the FAB build out's. That whole landscapes going to change once 1.4NM hits, and they are fighting the next gen chip after, as NA-EUV will have absolutely maxed out on what it can do and can't advance any further... and here comes the same scenario INTC was in, TSM is now years behind in knowledge with high na-evu lithography machines, and INTC has now piled up a 3 year advantage with patents. TSM won't fail as a company, but INTC sure as hell are being given a great chance to catch up here and potentially over take as the lead chip builder.
In principal yes but even I am not fully versed with nitty-gritty of complex order book. There are things like a "complex order book auction" which a retail order can trigger. Something I should spend more time looking at. I have generally let my broker handle COB orders or just enter the legs individually. It is probably the best for illiquid wide spread names. The priority stuff should help for liquid FAB7 options. I have never looked at COB so don't know about liquidity etc. For an illiquid wide spread chain most trading happens when the market moves and the MM just lifts your stale quote. Rarely do you get lucky when you get a fill in a quite market. So this slight benefit to me in those scenarios has been that I don't cross the full spread. But since the MM lifted me it means that the price was bad for me and good for them but not as bad as crossing the full spread. And further to clarify your point, an MM is never obligated to trade at a loss. No one can make a rule like that. This is just priority for a limit order where they begrudgingly have to give to the same good price that they get themselves.
I have experience working with people from both professionally. Granted, this is 10 years ago. I would trust anybody at NVDA to touch my computer (higher praise than that, you cannot get from me). Everybody there was talented and on their game (I really should've taken that job they offered me). In contrast, I wouldn't trust anybody at Intel in the same zipcode. Literally every person I worked with at Intel was on coke. And they were scared of each other - blame culture ruled rather than co-operation and innovation. They're like Formula1 Ferrari in the chip sector. Everybody thinks they're good, everybody keeps betting on them. But the last time they actually did something well was 2008. At some point, their FAB will just spontaneously combust or some shit.
I will admittedly say that AMD has been to bottom of the barrel during their FAB running day in Dresden. Things weren't always good. Especially with Intel hellbent on putting them out of business. So, it was a stressful rocky road for looong time. You know, make or break situation. But, with the right management, things can and did change. No looking back now.
Chad FAB4 vs virgin MAG7
MAG7 is dead … MU, SNDK, AMD, INTC ..FAB4 now
You are comparing consumer demand to CAPEX spending. Consumer demand diminishes with increased supply, CAPEX is far larger and creating the FAB's necessary to create that much memory is far far more difficult and will take significantly longer. That's not even considering that every large tech company is projecting an increase in CAPEX, should that continue then it is all but guaranteed. I say all this but I cashed out on my leaps today lol
Something, something Tesla's gonna build the biggest FAB and their DOJO chips...
Tesla robotaxis will take over the world. Robotaxis? No I said robots. We will sell two robots for every one person on earth. Earth? No I said the moon. Moon? No I said a FAB the size of the moon. Why does everyone keep lying about what I said?
Tesla robotaxis will take over the world. Robotaxis? No I said robots. We will sell two robots for every one person on earth. Earth? No I said the moon. Moon? No I said a FAB the size of the moon. Why does everyone keep lying about what I said?
ATOM FAB news due any day. NVDA INTC AMD TSM BRCM MU SNDK AMAT
ATOM Final FAB result due any day for game changing semiconductor manufacturing. NVDA INTC ATML TSM MU SNDK BRCM TXN SOXL. Previous all time high 47.
I'm really surprised you regards don't realize that Qatari gas plant is 30% of the world's helium... helium that's needed for MRIs and ... FAB PLANTS... Yields are going to crater as supply is constrained and fab buildouts are going to get delayed/cancelled...
Similar to the Russian FAB-3000s I guess
10% lol. How bout a 20% pull back & bear market which occurs on avg every 3-5 years. We’ve just stepped into an asymmetric war we’re totally unprepared to fight. Don’t believe me? We are now asking Ukraine to help us learn drone technology. Can u say Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan lol… file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/a5/05/79B61E1F-9AD6-4B7B-A7A8-2E1D2C3FAB5B/Ukraine%20Sent%20Drone%20Experts%20to%20Protect%20U.S.%20Bases%20in%20Jordan,%20Zelensky%20Says.jpeg
They deserve the valuation, and still undervalued. They will dominate FAB for years to come. MU is the next trillion dollar company.
>FAB grade silicon is only made in US. Reasonably priced fab grade silicon is very available in North Carolina. There are other places in the world you can find and mine FAB grade silicon. But it won't be the same "low price"
I am totally chill with it, barring an invasion they have a huge moat in the FAB situation!
TSMC is worthless if the US hates you. FAB grade silicon is only made in US.
Why do you say? I mean if you look at it from chinas perspective they have the opportunity to seize one of the most valuable assets in the entire world right now (TSMC), therefore controlling a huge portion of the worlds semiconductor supply. That is absolutely massive leverage that is sitting right off the coast of China. China may see that leverage as critical, and bet that the United States would not jeopardize the loss of such critical supply, even if we now have to pay a premium for it. China needs to make their move before the next-gen fabs are largely operational in the continental US. (Intel Ohio FAB, TSMC Texas, etc)
Check the profile of the new CEO. He helped China to establish silicon FAB on many occasions. The first thing he did to Intel is to gut the local FAB facilities in the US. I don't trust he has food intentions for Intel or the US.
they are set to release another FAB in mesa arizona in late 2027 which will make their A18 chips which are on par with Nvidias firs tinitial ai chips. Its hope...
Lmaoooo. It’s bound to happen. Why else would BOTH the past administrations spend hundreds of billions of dollars on FAB factories in the U.S? They know they’re gonna lose taiwan, they’re just preparing for the fallout.
It's very clear that 99% of the people whining about this don't actually care. If you did, you'd already know that NVIDIA has been established in Israel for years. And it's far from just Nvidia. Intel's Haifa lab has been one of Intel's most important, and Intel has a massive FAB in Israel. IBM, AMD, Microsoft, Google, Apple, AWS, and plenty more have operations, many for decades, in Israel. And that's not even mentioning cyber security from Israel. If you intend on boycotting Israel, you're boycott the entire internet and nearly every computer.
To be a true node advancement I think it needed to have some sort of improvement, while I think TSMC has offer none. TSMC was thinking to use AI to optimise mask shape, but no technical paper can confirm this advancement, and knowing nVidia and Huang, if there is such a break through his leather jacket will appear, but that is not the case. Therefore TSMC N2 is a node that is without any high hope. SK Hynix has make a big leap in Photo Resist to dry resist and side with Lam Research, but I think TSMC and Japanese relationship, it is highly unlikely such a move will happen, I think dry photo resist is key if you needed to go for double and Quad patterning. MOR is not going to help, therefore TSMC can not break through the 0.021um\^2 SRAM density on production type of SRAM i.e. L1 - L3 cache. In this sense, Intel 18A with PowerVIA improved cell utilisation will make the node more density than TSMC N2. In all area of performance, power and area, 18A is killing N2. Intel was reported to be with Applied Material on Pattern Sharpening, TSMC also did not do that. I think it will help Intel to improve yield, therefore I think TSMC fake news media, is wrong about the Yield of 18A, the laptop market where Intel is very big, meant that Panther Lake has good yield, there is a recent video on CNBC, they are showing off Clearwater Forest, not Panther Lake, and that chiplet size is big, and it is testing the new High NA machine, if Clearwater Forest is already entered Risk Production, then yield of Panther Lake should be over 80% i.e. that is science or logic from the D0 calculation. If after the 1st month of Panther Lake Sales, there are notable chip shortage, I will change my mind, but at this moment is point to high yield rate of Panther Lake. TSMC is not going to have High NA EUV machine, look at the shape of Clearwater Forest, it is clear that some sort of High-NA EUV is planned, as the mask for the High NA EUV is small, the current requirement of FAB a large chip/chiplet is going to be rectangle, 2 mask for example left and right mask and align into 1 chip/chiplet. As the next High NA EUV machine will be deliver to Samsung, it is highly likely that Samsung will catch up with TSMC, with SK Hynix having even more advantage.
The FABs in germany and japan are making older legacy wafers though. The Arizona FAB is having reliability issues, labor shortages, talent shortages, and their yield of usable wafers is much lower. You arent wrong, they are expanding, and the china risk is mitigating because of that, but truthfully the heart of the operation is still very much taiwan. That is where the bleeding edge chips are made, where the yields are highest, where all the research and developement is conducted, where all the talent is. I thought the china risk was overblown until i saw the video and satellite images of the three monsterous ship/aircraft carrier looking landbridges china was testing out. Those fuckers are purpose built for laying siege on taiwan. MY entire roth is in TSM, i'm still bullish. Truly the most important company on the planet today. If china did make a move, world war 3 would shortly follow thereafter, no doubt.
whatever dude. lay off fox news and crazy youtube channels trying to gain clickbaits. use some critical thinking. blows my mind china outright spends 1 trillion on one-belt-one-road for security incase of taiwan/US blockage on sea freight, but "THEY WANT TAIWAN CHIP FAB!"... Bro...they literally stating,constructing, pouring 1 trillion for security....not sure how telegraph their motivation for taiwan is...
Gamer Nexus just posted a vid that explains it all. Micron took Billions of tax payer money for R&D and FAB and now are abandoning the consumer market. Fraud?
TSMC aint giving no one here in the USA any of their trade secrets. Also said FAB has been hailed as a near failure by TSMC foreign workers. The USA just does not have the culture or workforce to step up to this without TSMC taking nearly full control and staffing.
Well the Federal govt literally bought a stake in Intel? So we all own it technically. Then NVDA deal comes out and big talks locally in AZ about Intel being able to replace/replicate the same FAB quality as TSMC. TSMC isn’t popular here with workers either, lawsuits , racism, different treatment of Taiwanese workers and Americans. Using temp agencies to fill roles instead of hiring and training a real workforce. Then shutting in the temp workers for not knowing the job no one trained them for. Now they are finally building a reclaimed water system after using 4.75 million gallons of water per day, in Phoenix, AZ where they tell us we are in a persistent drought, won’t have water for the new communities within 20 years etc. combined with the data centers everywhere and APS raising household rates per kWh , every water company has a jacked the prices as well while asking people to use less. Meanwhile govt lets fabs open using more water than a subburb per day without a reclaim system. While shutting on employees and paying temp wages. More and more Chinese show up daily as well. No temp agency for that.
You aren’t paying any attention. It is a DESIGN partnership, not a FAB one. The partnership has nothing to do with making the U.S. self sufficient in chip fabrication. The deal was announced 24 hours ago. You have had plenty of time to read the announcement and listen to the press conference. Both companies were clear during the press conference it is a partnership in which Intel will design x86 CPUs for Nvidia. They were very clear there is no fab component. Guess who they said will be fabricating the chips? TSMC.
From what I read, this deal doesn't affect FAB production, NVidia is all in with TSMC. Its more of a way that Nvidia is using intel to sell its GPU's. This is how I understood it.
I've been to China many times so yes I know. It doesn't matter. They can have all the chips they want in R&D but they can't build the damn things without a fab. Even if they started today it would.take 5 years to build the FAB and they don't have the ASML machines so they have to develop and build those from scratch. 10 years is optimistic for them.
Minimum 10 years before they can make anything under 7 nm. Hell they can't really make anything under 10 nm well right now TBH. If they had functional EUV ASML machines today it would still be 5+ years to build the FAB. Its the most complicated thing humans can do period. If you have ever been in a fab you would get it. Its like floors and floors of advanced robots flying around and machines the size semi trucks doing incredibly complex opperations. Hell just getting the people trained and the processes ironed out is a huge problem (just look at TSMC in AZ for that). People who think China will magically get this all done without access to western people and ASML machines have no idea how this stuff works. I've been to a lot of FABs myself its not going to happen any time soon. They could pour a trillion dollars into it over the next 10 years and still not get there.
Ah yes, Intel, so leading edge that their top of the line products are made by TSMC. Who, by the way, have a FAB in Arizona that is pumping out products, and they are constructing two more. Samsung also have 2 FABs in Texas. You also cannot forget about Global Foundries..
oh man, this is where you lost me. You honestly think this stock will go back to the ATH in the next 6-9 months?... sorry bro, but maybe you should watch the last earnings call. I'd say unless Intel and Samsung are going to place massive orders in the next months, you should expect 10% up by end of year. Possibly 20% with a bit of luck. Everything related to chips apart from AI is in a down cycle (consumer electronics, cars etc.). Apart form that, only TSMC is flying. Samsung has technical implementation struggles, and Intel... well, you know how that went... there might be new hope with Trump, but you know how that can change overnight. I see it like this... who would be mad enough to actually commit to investing billions in FAB CAPEX when the madman at the wheel can change course at any moment? Don't get me wrong. ASML at the current price is great, and if you hold long term it will be a fine stock, but back to ATH in the short term is not realistic if you ask me. That was peak AI boom madness. We now have a much clearer picture of the technical, financial and political issues in the sector.
This is not how reality works... can just wish into existence this kinda FAB shit.
Even when TSMC builds a FAB in the US, they have to staff it with workers from Taiwan.
Because each machine they sell on the high end costs like $400m for high EUV machine and every FAB only needs 3-6. And when you see Intel not being able to produce yields with High NA EUV machines it doesn't bode well for ASML. ASML is a partner. Intel not being able to figure this out isn't good for ASML. TSM isn't buying High NA. They're just buying NA EUV machines which are like $2-300 million each.
Yesterdays trade deal announcement was super good my Euro long holds. Gap up on TE (LNG projects), and X-FAB (Discounted niche semiconductor foundry)... XFAB is odd, assume the tariffs provided certainty and it was already discounted. China holds Ping An and Ehang both up in overnight too. Bears kill regardless of geography I think.
Probably August 28. NVDA earnings come out Aug 27 after the close. Either the bull market roars or NVDA will cause the MAG7 stocks to fall in sympathy. The majority of SP500 performance is based on the MAG7. SP500 is stagnant because of Musk's rhetoric for TSLA and disappointment in the lack of AAPL innovation. The thought now is to replace those two in the MAG7 or go to FAB5 context instead. If your time horizon is 50-80 years, corrections and buying at the peak don't matter. But if you are retired or putting a big down payment in the next few years. I would not buy at the peak. It's common sense.
spent time in occupied syria - israeli golan - used to go drink beers and smoke cigarettes at sunset on this old tank [tank](https://www.google.com/maps/@32.888546,35.720768,3a,32.6y,8.12h,50.39t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sCIHM0ogKEICAgIDq8_HiFg!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fgpms-cs-s%2FAB8u6HZcsgMvI1_GQCgtazl0xHtpvrvjwAtqPw-VUfZ3NW_CA1yxUYNohiB_Wk4_M36aXZ5gbIpSDoUesHZgynpeODAoI_iH02agrWJg90G8Ocwei8r_7VSM-XIBrrH-uC7qVWpua8tj%3Dw900-h600-k-no-pi39.60921983921472-ya8.122862002475452-ro0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDYxNy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D)
Did you enjoy BM? you are going to adore FAB-3000: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMIH-4UApKE](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMIH-4UApKE)
The real answer here is twofold: - CUDA has become the defacto backbone for AI processing, driven by some really good choices that NVIDA made years ago. Because NVDIA developed the tech they have a revenue line to any processor that uses it. - They have some proprietary tech that allows them to send data in their Warehouses faster than anyone one over short distances (from cluster to cluster). They acquired this platform a few years ago and everyone just kind of scratched their heads as they were not really a cloud player at scale... But it turns out that it allows their cards to be considerably faster in their data centers. They have leveraged this considerably in the past two years to become a major player in that space. AMD can license CUDA (and has) and develop a competitor to it (as are Meta, Google, and a few other players) but because CUDA is so engrained in the university world, where a lot of AI research comes from, it is going to be challenging to break that moat. It takes a long time to spin up a FAB so even though AMD moved quickly when AI really took off their first AI specific FABs are still not fully online, there is just real lag in that space... So they have taken the counter position of pushing deeper into the consumer desktop computing space in the meantime... which has been ok for them, but not the rocketship NVIDA has been on.
Thank you for the detailed response my only question is are 10k and 10q forms financial documents of the company ? Not familiar with the term. But yes I am going to update my resume. I have better job security in a layoff scenario than most so I cling to that lol.. also my understanding is it could be a challenge to liquidate as many of our tools are very niche and specific to our product. Maybe that will be a factor along with the completion of the 5.2 billion dollar Siler City project that I hope will allow for a path to profitability and that our investors/creditors can see that. The Mohawk Valley FAB could also work towards better production numbers and there are expansions ongoing so I can only hope those things make a difference.
Intel only play is FAB they building and Trump canceled CHIPS act so Intel postponed their FAB in the US. So until they make it work Intel will suffer.
WOLF is (finally) going to rocket higher if/when semi tariffs are announced. And a way for a company like TSMC to possibly alleviate a tariff-related issue (and get in the good graces of Trump, Inc.) would be to outright buy WOLF. WOLF just completed the world's newest and most advanced SIC FAB. Built in North Carolina, it took five years and $5B to build. WOLF's current market cap: $420M. $4.5B in debt, with $1.5B in cash. (So roughly $3B in total debt.) But a brand new $5B FAB ready to go. And TSMC recently pledged a $100B investment in the US. WOLF is currently a prime buyout candidate right now; and for a number of compelling reasons.
You GDMN SNFABTCH MTHRFCKNG SSHLE FCK YOU GD FCKNG DMMT PIECE OF SHT CNT SHT FCK SHT SSFCK… Congrats and fck you 🤝
Thank you. Along with ROTH IRA and computer chip FAB, this bothers me.
This is actually is because they have 0 competence to pull off new FAB and even then it is going to loss a ton of money.
It's big risk IMHO. China's BR100 chip is already better and cheaper. They are struggling with FAB plants. They now want to reinvent themselves as an automobile/AI company? They are in the hype phase. Rough ride ahead.
There isn’t another good alternative at the moment. And, DeepSeek - who claimed to train $9mm and cheaper hardware - has somewhat been found to be less than truthful/probable. And, money to them (large tech and PE/VC) is plentiful and they will spend to be first. The biggest risk to Nvidia is that the FAB at TSM gets impacted by tariffs. If it does, that business would likely shift to Intel. It would hurt NVDA short term - as Intel would have to ramp up. I don’t see that happening though.
My bet is on their FAB business will blow up and with trump wanting everything produced domestically companies will start moving towards Intel FAB. AMD and Nvidia relies on FAB to produce their chips.
They’ll be able to move production to the US soon. TSMC is building a big ass FAB complex in Arizona right now. In fact much of it is already online.
Intel is a vertically integrated company. Yes they have OEM, but their overhead is getting more expensive. It is getting more expensive to invest into foundry. Keep in mind, all those fab capacity, after a node no longer competitive, they become wasted CAPEx. TSMC have the advantage or using their lower end FAB for other customers. Because TSMC is a pure foundry, and they license their capacity to other developers. There are still demand for 28nm or 14nm, because fridge and small electronics don't need 2nm fab. Intel is essentially only using their FAB for their intel CPU and GPU, and now intel is even using TSMC fab for their CPU/GPU. Intel need to invest into their own FAB, to make their own CPU and to remain competitive with AMD/NVIDIA. FAB are very expensive.
TSMC Arizona FAB is ~20k waffers a month at full production. TSMC 3nm in Taiwan is 120k plus and current 5nm is north of 100k. It's a very small % of overall waffers. Combined with the fact TSMC isn't bringing 3nm to Arizona until 2028 I believe. It's really a joke fab. If 'geopolitics' is tariffs it won't be enough to supply us market and 4nm isn't competitive against 18A. If you mean some type of invasion of Taiwan. TSMC R&D is in Taiwan. Company would be bankrupt and couldn't function without Taiwan headquarters
far be it from to ask anyone to rationalize an individual humans movement, but do you have any theories on how this makes literally any sense considering TSMC is building a FAB in the USA with a 6.6 Billion dollar government subsidy plus another tons of billions in tax breaks coupled with the fact that TSMC recently approved the 2nm printing process for fabrication in overseas plants including the US and Japan ( a close US ally).
Didn't TSMC switch US Production to their FAB in Arizona?
It's not like we had a years long back and forth over building exactly one FAB from TSMC to serve as an example for why it's difficult to onshore increasingly hyperspecialized industries.
TSMC is currently building a FAB in Arizona, although I think it will be done in 3 years ish but I also think they have others around the US as well.
America doesn't design the chips. Taiwan does and is 5 steps ahead of any FAB in the entire world. Literally producing 90% of the world's semi-conductor chips. That's why China won't invade because it would bring the world's economy to its knees. This is next level mental gymnastics.
Except... Intel does more than design x86. It's the only US bleeding edge FAB at a time where there's basically a race for AI by governments and companies across the world, I think Intel will be just fine.
Yes, especially when people are forgetting that intel is a FAB, the only US made one in the US, where will AMD and NVIDIA manufacture their chips? In thin air? No, at Intel.
You can get lucky playing with options but hard to make money consistently. Selling covered calls on my FAB 7 positions yields 2-4% a week. Do the math!
The government can absolutely stop them from moving out. They are the largest single shareholder in TSMC. Plus you don’t just dump your FAB. It’s far too expensive to make more and lose the insane amount of manufacturing already built in Taiwan.
Jensen could buy Intel all by himself at this point. His net worth is greater than Intel’s market cap. But I don’t know if nvidia would be a good purchaser for Intel. Why should they? Rumor has it nvidia is going to create a competitor to the M[1-4] processors. If they’re able to match Apple’s performance while simultaneously creating an ecosystem to rival x86, Intel could be in even more trouble. Realistically what Intel needs to do here is what AMD did two decades ago. Spin off its FAB unit and sell. The issues Intel are having are mostly created by the fact that their in house fabrication process has fallen behind in the era of EUV lithography. Intel CPUs coming off of the TSMC foundry are rumored to be competitive again.
I still have my espp from early 2k when prices were $13 share and have purchased more of course. CB, PO, BK were CEO when I was in RA Dev and have seen many layoffs throughout the years. Mistakes were made, but xscale… smh Prices have gone up and down and I was still purchasing from time to time. As for TSMC, there’s a new FAB in AZ…
I know, not shitting on Intel. Just saying it is impressive TSMC got construction and the FAB online in a timely manner.
I did a similar trade with Wolfspeed. They don’t make chips but they make silicon carbide that goes into EVs. At one point they were valued at over $100 in 2021-2022 during the chip shortage when EV demand was high. Recently they dipped down below $10, which was where I bought. Sat through a few weeks in the red when it went even lower, bottoming out at $8. Now it’s up to $16. They fell because EV demand was overestimated at the time and their new FAB in New York was having difficulty starting up. Once the new fab produces product and they close their old fab in North Carolina, they’ll be in better shape. The real jump is going to happen when more robotaxis are hitting the road.
**TSM Call Notes: Insanely positive - For those wondering why a big green day tomorrow for Nvidia and the market really.** Strong AI Chips, PC and Smartphone sales 3nm 20% of revenue 5nm 32% platform HPC (High Performance Compute / AI) 51% - 11% qoq smartphone 16% - increase 5% qoq **Guidance** 26.1 billion + 13% increase or 35% sequential increase Gross margin 57% - 59% - DAMN Higher capacity and utilization rate compared to 3rd q guidance - exceeded the high end range by 230 basis points 4th q gross margins by 20 basis points. Higher capacity utilization rate. N3 ramp up. AI demand continues. Capex will be higher because of the demand of AI growth - More for ASML\*\*\* 20% spend for advanced packaging As long as growth outlook looks strong we will continue to invest. Strong smartphone and AI related demand Moving into 1st quarter we expect strong demand to continue. Extremely robust AI related demand throughout the 2nd half of 2024 Leading edge 3nm and 5nm technologies AI AI AI revenue from server AI contribution to more the TRIPLE this year\*\*\* of our total revenue in 2024 \*\*\*\* DAMN We forecast full year revenue 2025? to increase 30% \*\*\*\* New FAB to start in the beginning of 2025 in Arizona \*\*\* Good for ASML Will begin production in 2028 Another fab in Kumamoto in 4th quarter of next year. Something something opening up FABS everywhere!!! Fabs in Germany, Asia, US, everywhere around the globe! Focusing on automotive. Really diversifying fabs regionally here in the next 3-5 years **QA** HORRIBLE QUESTION - IS AI a BUBBLE - LOL Roi and things - who was this? Are you worried (interpreter) fixes question Answer - It's real - Every AI innovator is working with TSMC - We can create more value... 1% productivity gain is equal to $1 B to TSMC - we can't be the only company to have benefited. I believe a lot of company are using AI to improve productivity. It's real. Did I answer your question? 2nd part to question - how do we view the overall demand and cycle have we reached peak? The demand is real and this is just the beginning. Key customer says the demand is insane (Jensen) It will CONTINUE FOR MANY YEARS \*\*\*\*!!! Everything other than AI is starting to stabilize and starting to improve.
**Call Notes: Insanely positive** Strong AI Chips, PC and Smartphone sales 3nm 20% of revenue 5nm 32% platform HPC (High Performance Compute / AI) 51% - 11% qoq smartphone 16% - increase 5% qoq **Guidance** 26.1 billion + 13% increase or 35% sequential increase Gross margin 57% - 59% - DAMN Higher capacity and utilization rate compared to 3rd q guidance - exceeded the high end range by 230 basis points 4th q gross margins by 20 basis points. Higher capacity utilization rate. N3 ramp up. AI demand continues. Capex will be higher because of the demand of AI growth - More for ASML\*\*\* 20% spend for advanced packaging As long as growth outlook looks strong we will continue to invest. Strong smartphone and AI related demand Moving into 1st quarter we expect strong demand to continue. Extremely robust AI related demand throughout the 2nd half of 2024 Leading edge 3nm and 5nm technologies AI AI AI revenue from server AI contribution to more the TRIPLE this year\*\*\* of our total revenue in 2024 \*\*\*\* DAMN We forecast full year revenue 2025? to increase 30% \*\*\*\* New FAB to start in the beginning of 2025 in Arizona \*\*\* Good for ASML Will begin production in 2028
Why is he doing the “I just came out of the closet and I’m FAB-O-LISS!!” dance?
" but $5 billion isn’t gonna move the needle much for Intel. " I'd like to see where and how you come up wit this statement. DO you have a PHD in Business administration specializing in manufacturing business? Or are you a FAB engieer?
> They already had FABs. They were chip design and FAB for their own chips. You know you have to build these things pretty much every 18 months to say up to date, right? And Intel went even bigger - they're now building *even more fabs* to expand their capacity, which is key for their transition towards being an IDM.
Nah, I was long Intel even before Grandma's boy. But got out when they kept losing revenue and went negative on FCF and profit. Luckily I lost no money and made money. Same with T and before they spun off WBD. They already had FABs. They were chip design and FAB for their own chips. Probably need a new board and structure just like Boeing. Even GE is somewhat turning around with spinning off their businesses and ending the conglomerate.
Yes, we do, thanks for asking. PS. Poland gov is pushing forward Intel case but I'm not sure what will gonna happen. Poland FAB depends on Magdeburg one. So if they won't start with Germany project I don't think it make sens to go further with Poland.
>The spun off FAB company will be hard to build without the FABless side of the business to finance it. The fabless side isn't making money to begin with. The fabs are being built using Chips Act grants.
Listen to me. DO. NOT. BUY. INTEL. You want to know how bad it is? The Apple M1 processor wiped the floor with Intel when it was released. They have a long ways to fall. Lithography is EXTREMELY expensive and they’re the only ones left doing their own FAB. Go read the story of AMD and their FAB struggles. Intel is behind, and they’re cranking up the power they shove through their chips. The 13th and 14th Gen processors have a hardware issue in them. Their XE GPUs aren’t worth it unless so heavily discounted you can get them in an arcade machine. Just don’t.
Damn nice, I would have took the profits today. Spinning the FAB business off is terrible news. They spent so much time and effort. The spun off FAB company will be hard to build without the FABless side of the business to finance it.
Geo political situation means you need US based companed to have fhe best FAB based in the usa. They should bounce back.
I was bullish on Intel when they replaced Bob Swan. People saw him as a bean counter and just doing buybacks and no growth. Which is what happened. Than they replaced him with Pat. So I bought shares. But luckily I sold before it kept dropping. I sold when their first or second quarter showed no growth. Made profit and never looked backed. I would buy again once the FABs in Columbus come online. Until then, they have to spend and wait until their FABs are up to even do their plan. They want to be the FAB for FAB less companies like QCOM, AMD and NVDA. Best bet is like 2025/2026.
As a degen insider to intel, buy the stock right now. 3 years from now its going to 3x. I cant go into more but once FAB3 Columbus starts qualify the stock is going to recover.
I think we are going to see a massive run up before we get to the ultimate, never ending fall. I have no idea how far that is away. One year? 10 years? Because ultimately the jobs are going to go away. There is not stopping that at this point. I would have thought it would have already happened some. But what I think is happening is enough are retiring early like myself that it is helping. Plus there is a ton of people that are my age as I was born at the height of the baby boom. I have five siblings and I was the only one to retire in my 40s. They are all retiring in the next couple of years. I do not believe this is like past technology booms. Where it created more than enough new jobs. That is just not happening this time. Take a look at the commercials already be created with AI. AI is going to decimate that entire industry and instead of the money going towards sets and actors, etc. It will be going to companies like Google because the have the TPUs. A TPU is really the only competitor to Nvidia right now. The money spent on jobs will now go to the AI inference which will be Google, Microsoft, Amazon, TSM, ASML, and Nvidia mostly. With Google doing the entire stack except the FAB. Which they are using TSMC. I have been adding to my TSMC position because they and ASML are the only ones required no matter what cloud provider you use to create these new commercials. BTW, it is commercials today but it will soon be TV shows, Movies, etc.
Damn, didn't invest in OpenAI and not working with Softbank for AI chip. Yet they want to be a FAB for other companies like Samsung and TSMC.
Comparing intel failing and general motors failing is like comparing apples and oranges, IMO. Because Semis have become so important in today's world and fear of China taking over Taiwan. It's likely US govt thinks intel too important to fail. Their FAB business will be incredibly important once China gets near Taiwan TSM factories. A lot of this is conjuncture. But anything can happen.
Think it will be even more in the future. Why been adding to my TSM position. Just think about it. Right now there is really only two choices for chips to handle LLMs. Google TPUs and Nvidia. Google uses TSMC as does Nvidia for their FAB. People think Nvidia has a monopoly but because of Google that is NOT true. But where there is a monopoly right now is TSMC and ASML. Why my favorite three right now are TSMC, GOOG/GOOGL, and ASML.
1-3 would give them a monopoly. That's bad for buisness in the US. FAB would be a huge expense and Nvidia has zero experience running FABs. Nvidia also does not use Intel libraries...no one does except Intel. Makes no sense to buy Intel. Intel has sadly been run into the ground and sucked dry by every management position above first level managers.
* FABs: Nvidia enjoys the derisk of not having a FAB, it’s not their competency. Also Intel’s FABs are nothing like TSMC. * An x86 license: the future is Arm, and you’d still need AMD’s license for x64 but.
Serrious answer now. Hold for some months if it bumps back sell and if it isnt sell anyway. In a year Intell value be even worse that company did 7 billion loss on their FAB par just this year its going down in long term.
Idk about AMD but they are American but their FAB isn't. At least the majority of it.
FAB JERBS AI 
With a physical product especially one as complicated as processor it takes a long time to change things! But things have changed over the years between the ARC cards, new CPU arch with P and E cores, more cores/powerful CPUs in general, and the new FAB business! Thats pretty impressive for just a few years
does make some good points though, especially related to FAB2 tolerances necessary for profitable yield; if the company they signed an agreement with is Apple or Meta, you could look at how well that turned out for Varta