MI

cbusoh66

No they don't because they haven't announced completion of ATM's. I would be careful this quarter because EPS estimates have not been updated but the company may have sold like 40 million additional shares, could be as high as 120 million new shares, so they may beat on revenue and miss on earnings and algos will immediately sell it. It will take time for analysts' estimates to adjust. SMCI is trying to win new orders by undercutting everyone, their margins will always be razor-thin compared to Dell, Dell and HPE offer bundled services, and then if there's a hint of slowdown in CapEx by the Mag7, then it's Armageddon for the whole sector. There's always that next shoe to drop because once you get wrapped up in Federal investigations, other shit pops up. On paper, it may worth a small lotto pick, those puts seem safe enough, probably not going to get assigned unless it does crater post earnings but there will be a floor as AMD starts shipping their MI450s this quarter or next.

Dude_HaHa

I mean FL is a shitbox, except for the proximity to ocean and the nature. But i wouldn't put OH/MI above it.

k3t4mine

>NVDA competes with both AVGO & now especially AMD. Yes that's what I said. They have competition, and the threat to their margins is **competitive** and not cyclical, unlike memory. Both are threatened by demand from the hyperscalers >if HBM is a commodity so are AI accelerators. Are you talking about NPU's? If so then no, not at all. Whether something is a commodity comes down to whether there's a cross-vendor standard that makes competing products interchangeable. Accelerators have none, where as HBM has one (JEDEC). Blackwell, MI, TPU, Tranium etc.. are all very different chips, with completely different architectures, bills of materials, performance, etc... you can't swap one for the other and expect the same functionality. But with HBM, It's a JEDEC part (HBM3E, HBM4) so the pinout, geometry, and electrical interface all specified and exactly the same across manufacturers. The standardisation lets the accelerator designers qualify multiple sources and treat SK Hynix, Samsung, or Micron as interchangeable. This is the key part, they are all the same, so the consumers are indifferent between manufacturers. No company is able to command a premium. >Not all HBM is the same especially with differences in manufacturing & the base logic dies. Whether that makes them a commodity or not still depends on interchangeability. SK, Micron, and Samsung don't design those dies, they just fab them through TSMC. If I am designing the base logic dies, and the end product is going to be identical between manufacturers because they all fab them at the same place, then were's the pricing power? >Also the argument is the same. If AI capex drops, they stop buying as many AI accelerators from NVDA Both are obviously exposed to end consumer demand, that goes without saying. I am saying that with memory, the commoditzed nature of the product means that margins will compress regardless of demand. A collapse in AI capex would obviously crush them quicker and faster, and bring NVDA down as well. My point is that in memory, margins will compress on their own, but not with NVDA, at least not the same degree. You'd need competition in some way, or demand to fall relative to supply but since only NVDA makes the specific, differentiated NVDA accelerators, they can control supply without losing market share.

thethor1231

SOXL.MI is 4x

BackpackingSurfer

The entire structure of the AMD/Meta deal is not to scale meta’s compute power, meta gets 160 million shares of AMD to buy the MI450’s, it’s a pay me to buy deal where meta gets to diversify their portfolio with subsidized compute while AMD gets backed by a hyper scaler. That’s only bullish for Meta. Meta gets low cost compute supply, with Meta compute PR’s a few days ago, it’s literally a play to drive down costs of spot compute, this hurts neocloud margins.

ForeverDrewski

We’ll see how well the MI450 performs and sells versus Nividias offerings. My average cost is $106 I’ll keep holding. I definitely wouldn’t buy at these levels.

Sufficient_Habit5091

It's not the "map". OH is a swing state historically so is ME. MI, GA etc. should be easy to defend in the past year given everything horrific he's done. But the reality is that tech and AI bros control social media and the population now, it literally doesn't matter what he does. Blaming the "map" is frankly for lack of a better word copium for how strong he is still. I'm not saying I like it, I hate it. But to fix things you have to live in reality.

vCharged

Sounds like AMD will publicly announce anthropic as a customer ““We believe AMD has won Anthropic as a customer for its MI450 AI accelerator, based on our discussions with industry contacts, and expect AMD to announce it at Advancing AI Day in July,” Citi analysts wrote”

G2Geeksy

I'm living in my car in Northern MI. Honestly will send you half if you have time to consider me once in a while Thank you in advance, I will provide all my private personal info (like cell #) if you do ever want to help!

Livid-Highlight-1374

AMD 1000+ This is my thesis on AMD. People keep talking about AMD like it's just "the #2 GPU company," but that's missing the bigger picture. AMD isn't a one-product company. It has growing businesses in AI accelerators, EPYC server CPUs, client PCs, gaming, and embedded chips. The AI business is still in the early innings, with the MI350 now ramping and the MI400 platform expected to be a major step forward. The company also has one of the best CEOs in tech. Lisa Su took AMD from a company trading around $2 a share to one competing with Intel in CPUs and Nvidia in AI. Under her leadership, AMD has consistently executed, taken market share, and built a much stronger balance sheet. What really gives me conviction is that compute demand isn't slowing down. AI, cloud computing, enterprise servers, autonomous systems, and edge computing all require more chips over time. AMD is positioned across multiple parts of that ecosystem instead of relying on a single product. The market is also acting like Nvidia will win 100% of AI forever. That's not how semiconductors have ever worked. The biggest cloud companies want multiple suppliers for cost, supply chain resilience, and negotiating power. AMD is already supplying products to major hyperscalers like Google and Oracle and continues expanding those relationships. Could AMD fall 30-50%? Absolutely. Semiconductor stocks are volatile. But volatility isn't the same thing as a broken thesis. I'm not invested because I think the stock only goes up. I'm invested because I believe AMD will be a much larger and more profitable company five years from now than it is today. If that happens, the stock price will eventually reflect it. Another thing people ignore is execution. Every product cycle under Lisa Su has made AMD more competitive. Zen transformed CPUs. EPYC took server share from Intel. Ryzen became one of the top consumer CPU brands. Now they're applying that same execution to AI. That's why I trust management. People also focus way too much on today's earnings instead of future earnings. AMD isn't being valued on what it earned last quarter—it's being valued on what it could earn several years from now if AI accelerator revenue, server CPUs, and software continue scaling. That's why I care more about execution than today's P/E ratio. The market also acts like Nvidia has to lose for AMD to win. It doesn't. The AI market is becoming so large that multiple companies can grow at the same time. Cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Amazon, and Meta aren't going to rely on a single supplier forever. They want competition, lower costs, and supply chain diversification. AMD is already building relationships with many of those customers. What really gives me conviction is that compute demand isn't slowing down. AI, cloud computing, enterprise servers, autonomous systems, and edge computing all require more chips over time. AMD is positioned across multiple parts of that ecosystem instead of relying on a single product.

skitcadillac

Banning MI might unleash a commercial war. A lot of smart home items, cameras, smart watches, air compressors, earphones, are all directly manufactured by Xiaomi, not to talk about the pieces and products they’re subcontracted to fabricate, added to it, Mi is china’s flagship on consumer electronics as of today, Xi literally gifted a Xiaomi to South Corea’s PM

ShittyUsernane1222

which 3 letter government agencies are represented the most in wsb (pick 1 from the list) ? 1. CIA (US) 2. NSA(US) 3. FBI (US) 4. DIA (US) 5. NGA(US) 6. FSB (Russia) 7. MSS (China) 8. KGB (Belarus) 9. MI6 (UK) 10. MI5 (UK) 11. ICE (US) 12. GCHQ (UK) 13. BND (germany) 14. Verfassungsschutz (Germany) 15. Other

Trash_Panda_Trading

MI = end me now

anon999976

MI already blasting through uphalt

johnnyshots22

Good entries..UAVS   SIDU..not a penny but MI should run on tiny float and unlikely dillution. Best vibes to all !

anon999976

MI 🚀

anon999976

MI running

Firm-Public-9829

BNAI INFQ SLS MI (BNAI strongest potential for weeks bullrun)

bikemore55

MI or Canada?

realribsnotmcfibs

Ehh. MI here. They proposed 30% electricity increase here. On top of last years also large increase. The poors always lose.

HighDINSLowStandards

Yes Action Code Company Addition ELV Elevra Lithium Limited Addition EOS Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited Addition FFM FireFly Metals Limited Addition KCN Kingsgate Consolidated Limited Addition MI6 Minerals 260 Limited Removal GYG Guzman Y Gomez Limited Removal IEL IDP Education Limited Removal SDR SiteMinder Limited Removal TPW Temple & Webster Group Limited Removal WEB WEB Travel Group Limited

thethor1231

No cos I can't sell SOXS.MI in afterhours in Europe and SOXS USA isn't available here

ShroomRonin

The electrician thing is kinda odd (I don’t know shit about it) but my buddy who was just doing sales white collar was sick of it quit and became an electrician but basically said the money is getting the masters license thing after 10 years then you can have your own business and hire journeymen and that’s when you make money until then I think he’s getting paid like $30 / hour says it sucks and as much as he despises sales is searching for another sales job after about 18 mos as an electrician up in MI people talk about all the money in it and as if it comes very quickly but idk how true all that is. I think you can make close to $30 / hour as a sales intern, thought it would be hire for a professional electrician If anyone knows about how the trades work maybe they can explain the path to money a little better but it doesn’t seem as simple as just go get a trade job

OkResponsibility2470

It’s kind of funny how MI moves exactly the same every day. I’m guessing it dumps every morning from profit taking but why does it always pump last hour?

rudorudo123

down 25% premarket because the commerce department just blocked MI350x sales to chinese-controlled entities outside china. china is 20% of AMD's revenue and MI350x was the chip meant to hold that footprint. the "infra stays" thesis isn't wrong, but you're pricing it through a window that just got smaller. caught the details on wiseek before most wires had full context.

luis-barata

Fair, MI350 and MI400 are the more current references. The analytical framing holds though, multiple expansion past already aggressive earnings forecasts is the part that matters regardless of which product cycle we're indexing on.

Affectionate-Idea690

The AMD $600 Warrant Structure: AMD previously structured a massive chips-for-stock agreement with Meta Platforms (and a similar one with OpenAI). As part of that $100+ billion deal, AMD issued performance-based warrants for Meta to buy shares at $0.01 each. These warrants vest in tranches based on hardware deployment milestones, and the final tranches only unlock if AMD's stock price hits performance targets up to $600 per share.,. The Anthropic Rumors: Citigroup analysts reported that AMD has allegedly won Anthropic as a major customer for its upcoming MI450 AI accelerators. Wall Street expects AMD to officially announce this partnership at its Advancing AI day event, which is scheduled for July 2026.

TheSixthNonsense

“MI300/MI325 ramp” I think your chatbot’s training data is way too outdated.

luis-barata

The 76 percent forward EPS growth assumption is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Multiple expansion on top of already aggressive earnings forecasts is the late-cycle signal worth respecting. The bull thesis says consensus still underestimates MI300/MI325 ramp and inference share gains from Nvidia, so 76 percent revises higher. The bear read is that you're paying for AI execution risk twice, through the demanding growth assumption baked into consensus and again through multiple expansion on top. The CSCO vs NVDA comparison is actually instructive in the opposite direction the deck implies, CSCO had a real product story too, the bubble was about how far ahead of itself price got. Where AMD lands depends entirely on the next two quarters of data center revenue prints.

gopoohgo

Yes.  Citi thinks AMD got Anthropic as a MI450 customer that will be announced in July https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/citi-lifts-price-targets-intel-105130792.html   

Remote-Book-8616

This is the best AMD bear case I've read. And the data backs most of it. P/E 162.64. EV/EBITDA 43.89. Bull 88, Bear 85 — nearly tied. My AI agents couldn't agree either. HOLD 59/100. Your margin compression thesis is the real issue. MI355X on TSMC N3 with premium HBM3E, sold at a discount to B200. That's a margin nightmare before ROCm even enters the conversation. The 20% TAM capture math is also right. $200B revenue to justify current valuation means flawless execution for 4 straight years in a market where Nvidia is actively defending, hyperscalers are building their own silicon, and AMD's software stack is still catching up. But here's what the bears keep missing — AMD doesn't need to beat Nvidia. They just need to be the credible alternative that Microsoft and Meta call when Nvidia can't deliver. That's a smaller TAM but a real one. MACD bearish. Trend strength only 7.1% despite 352% YTD. Momentum is fading even as price holds. Your senses might be right. The setup feels like late 2021 Nvidia — priced for a future that may arrive, just not on this timeline. https://preview.redd.it/7vrxqnxkt34h1.png?width=2880&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a2303c9725af076e10a0d7960ecff4f2321dc41

DerNeko

The specs you posted don't even make sense. There are no values under AMD **MI355X.**

RixaRax

AMD’s flagship MI455X completely outclasses Nvidia's Blackwell B200 in raw memory capacity and speed by jumping to next-generation Next-Generation 2nm Architecture over Nvidia 4nm AMD’s chiplet strategy means they build several tiny, highly perfect compute dies and link them together. This modularity improves manufacturing yields dramatically, slashing AMD's silicon production costs by 30% to 40% compared to Nvidia. Breaking the NVLink Network Lock.. NVLink allowed thousands of GPUs to talk to each other seamlessly in a supercomputer. AMD is neutralizing this tech advantage by deploying UALink (Ultra Accelerator Link) and the Helios Rack-Scale Platform. Backed by heavyweights like Meta, Microsoft, and Google, UALink creates an open, standardized networking fabric that matches Nvidia's interconnect speeds without locking buyers into Nvidia's proprietary switches

GloomyMembership4197

OPENAI has option to get 10% of AMD: The warrant (option) AMD gave OpenAI to buy up to \~10% of AMD has an **exercise (strike) price of $0.01 per share**. Key details: * Shares covered: up to **160 million** AMD common shares * Vesting: phased based on milestones (initial MI450 delivery in late 2026, then stock-price targets, culminating at **$600/share** for the final tranche) * If fully exercised, this would be about a **10% stake** in AMD

Psyclist80

Lady in red...is dancing with me...AMD will continue to rocket. MI450 and Helios shipping soon, Zen 6 on 2nm gonna spank Nvidia's Vera. UDNA/RDNA5 in the oven, console refreshes on the horizon...TAM is huge and AMD poised to take more marketshare as the dominant CPU provider for a compute starved market. China can build RAM, they cant build X86 CPU's to compete though.

Affectionate-Idea690

MI free cash flow exceeding $400 billion for Micron between 2027 and 2029... 😳

oliver2022

I would say to cash a half and forget about the other, with the agentic AI stuff and the MI400 scheduled to release later this year AMD still has a lot room to grow imo.

Constant_Ad_3070

I should have been greedier on that MI drawdown

Prestigious_Suit_202

# Two Words: MI-CRON

shravanevana

MI is good. HBM demand is still through the roof

spacedragon13

ROCm has second mover advantage but they'll need to subsidize adoption. Been following the beyond cuda discussion for a while and MI300X is very impressive without an inkling of the hype Blackwell architecture got. Nvidia still making nontrivial progress in data centers and moving into new territory like SoCs that combine gpu, CPU, and NPU for laptops.

SkepticalInvestor21

Nice timing on AMD! That's a solid accumulation strategy - buying in chunks like that reduces the FOMO of all-in entries and the regret of all-out exits. AMD's data center GPU ramp is the real story now, not just Ryzen. The MI300 series competing with Nvidia for AI inference workloads is what's driving institutional interest. You holding through earnings or planning to take some off before?

Wandering_trader99

So page 1, I just put a general summary for the stock, in this example I liked the flip in recent institutional ownership with AMD as well as rising chip demand. It looked like the bottom was in(and looking back now, it was..) I'm sure I also checked short interest + options flows as this is something i typically assess. On the next screenshot of my report, I broke down some of the fundamentals I liked with AMD: \- FCF was in a consistent and growing uptrend (Data consistently shows stocks already in a general FCF uptrend, tend to continue their uptrend and investing in stocks with a declining FCF trend is less likely to yield results even if their expected FCF is expected to turn around that year.) However, looking back, I disagree with my use of a DCF model & I now believe P/E is a bit out dated and crap when analysing HUGE growth tech stocks. \- I was correct about the solid returns the business was making and how their ROIC/WACC ratio was really good thanks to their Xilinx adaptation. \- My analysis of EPS growth was also pretty spot on. investors realized AI demand was real & MI300 made AMD the next big provider after NVidia. \- When it came to profit margins, I was optimistic as they trumped Intel and only fell short to the number 1 player NVDA. At the time, most investors were worried about this hence the stock dropping \~65% from ATH but this seemed like a major over reaction. \- And lastly, the debt to equity being 0.2 was solid. I typically go for stocks with a ratio below 1(preferably below 0.8. actualy)

BreakfastBallPlease

Lmao we had “too many dispensaries” in MI. Guess what? The shitty ones closed down and the good ones with constant business prospered greatly. What a dolt.

piltdown_manchild

I can't believe people are still falling for this bullshit. * NASA just took astronauts around the moon using a rocket that is supposed to be replaced by Starship, which is best known for delivering flaming bananas to the Indian Ocean. * The filing reveals that SpaceX is still planning on using Starship for point to point travel on Earth. [This will never happen.](https://youtu.be/jQUiIdre-MI?si=7sq-JUGyqK1Jgclt) * They are also talking about space-based data centers, which will not be cost effective in the next decade. Bezos correctly stated that launch costs will have to drop by 10x before he would consider this idea viable. * xAI is a money furnace that is hemorrhaging talent and renting out its data center to Anthropic rather than using it for its own model. As someone who is mostly invested in index funds, I look forward to involuntarily providing exit liquidity, thanks the the accelerated listing requirement.

El-burgos

:MI6

-UndeadBulwark

All three technologies support ROCm, though compatibility specifics vary. These findings are based on current search results. # Flash Attention ROCm support is established. The FlashAttention-2 CK backend supports MI series accelerators as well as RDNA 3 and RDNA 4 GPUs. Furthermore, Flash Attention is natively integrated into PyTorch for ROCm beginning with version 2.3 via `F.scaled_dot_product_attention`. # Sage Attention Compatibility is strictly tied to the version. SageAttention 1 supports AMD hardware because it is built on Triton kernels. SageAttention 2 utilizes native CUDA kernels and will only run on Nvidia hardware. # Triton OpenAI Triton is supported on ROCm. AMD provides official documentation and support for developing and optimizing Triton kernels directly on their GPUs, and it serves as the underlying compilation layer for many ROCm compatible operations.

the_bronze_burger

Fair point to raise — I want to make sure I'm not overclaiming here. That said, the 35B-A3B ranks #37 globally across all models on apxml, hits 73.4% on SWE-bench Verified and 92.6% on AIME 2026. The "small" part is the 3B active parameters per token, which is actually the architectural point — 256 experts with sparse routing means you get frontier-tier quality at inference speeds a dense model can't match. That's exactly why the MI355X throughput numbers are meaningful. Per InferenceX (SemiAnalysis's open-source benchmark trusted by Meta, OpenAI, Oracle), AMD already leads on roughly 30-40% of real inference workloads today — specifically high-concurrency serving, memory-bound large models, and MoE architectures. Not a majority, but not a rounding error either. The more interesting question is the trajectory. As models trend larger and MoE becomes the dominant architecture, that's more of AMD's sweet spot, not less. ROCm is closing fast — it's open source, which means the entire community can see CUDA's playbook and close the gap without guessing. The CUDA moat is real today, but it's mostly a training moat. Inference workloads are simpler, more standardized, and less sensitive to compiler maturity. AMD doesn't need to beat NVIDIA everywhere — just in the workloads that are growing fastest. Longer term speculation: agentic training might erode the training moat too. The next wave isn't one massive pretraining run — it's continuous fine-tuning on reasoning traces, tool-use failures, and feedback loops. Shorter sequences, smaller batches, frequent checkpointing, and a lot of CPU-side environment simulation between gradient updates. That workload is less dependent on NCCL's multi-node all-reduce optimization — which is where CUDA's training advantage is most concentrated. AMD's chiplet architecture, with tight CPU-GPU memory integration, is actually purpose-built for that ratio shift. If agentic training becomes the dominant paradigm in 3-5 years, the question isn't whether AMD can beat NVIDIA at 10k-GPU pretraining. It's whether that workload still matters as much. Genuinely open to pushback if I'm reading the trajectory wrong.

the_bronze_burger

https://www.wafer.ai/blog/qwen36-mi355x Hardware parity is already here. Wafer.ai just published a benchmark this week running Qwen3.6 35B MoE on a single 8×MI355X node using AMD's ATOM inference engine and beat every public Blackwell provider on decode throughput — 430 tok/s vs 402 for the next best. No custom kernels written, just config optimization on top of AMD's stack. And at $2.95/GPU/hr vs $5-6 for B200/B300, the cost economics aren't close either.

iamwatchingandmaking

GOOG for the long term. I already have 1000 shares and believe they will be at the frontier of AGI. Especially because I'm a huge fan of Demis Hasabis. I'm also heavily invested in DRAM etf. Memory isn't going to go anywhere. SK Hynix US listing should help prop this etf even further. I got lucky with AMD and currently hold 500 shares as well. They have a very long runway till they slow growth. Especially with the upcoming MI450 and MI500. They might overtake Nvidia due to their superior specs. Some of the smaller holdings I have are OKLO, ARM, ASTS, NVDA, AAPL. I'm not selling for the next 2 years.

Numerous-Bet-4847

What college is that cheap? (none, I just checked) I sent my kids to GVSU and Baker, they were $8-10k a year + room and board. The only school we found cheaper was Eastern, who were basically paying White kids to attend because nobody wanted to go there. I assume you meant $4k per trimester or something, because GROK says the cheapest schools in MI today are Saginaw and NMU, both in the $24k/yr. range including room and board. We have dually enrolled status for college credits for HS students, but Community college didn't become free until 2 years ago so we missed out on that. But I agree, people spending big bucks for UofM or MSU are wasting money.

Thierr

That is 2025 data. AMD's MI450X is the first real contender, and it's coming out this year (and it looks like hyperscalers are buying it in good quantities). I'm not saying amd is suddenly going to overtake nvidia, but it is a real contender in the AI market.

Les7X

Help me understand what the fuck happened in my mind when I decided to buy some Ferrari shares (RACE.MI)

Dizzy-Monk-

Here’s how AI re-wrote the post after I told it to organize the text but keep most of the original verbiage: “I’ve been spending a lot of time re-evaluating my long-term growth strategy, and I’ve finally narrowed my high-conviction plays down to three specific tickers that I plan on holding for at least the next decade: **AMD, FLNC, and RKLB**. **AMD** Even with the insane run we’ve seen, I truly believe Lisa Su is just hitting her stride in the AI data center space. As long as AMD keeps executing on the MI400 roadmap, I think they remain the only legitimate alternative to Nvidia’s monopoly. **FLNC** I feel like Fluence is a massive sleeper hit for the global energy transition. You simply cannot have a renewable grid without utility-scale storage, and Fluence is consistently proving they are the gold standard in that sector. **RKLB** While SpaceX gets all the mainstream headlines, Rocket Lab is quietly building a vertically integrated space empire. Their progress with Neutron could make them a dominant force in the launch and space systems market very soon. I know this isn’t a “safe” Boglehead approach, but the combined growth potential in **AI compute, energy storage, and commercial space** is just too massive for me to ignore. I’m curious to see if anyone else is rocking this specific trio, or if you think there’s a more explosive mix for a 10-year horizon.”

Beneficial-Ferret479

I will keep my answer short here. I answered "Yes" regarding the thesis has changed regarding the investment part of it. I'm very long AMD-investment is stay long-not *short regarding some thoughts of actually selling,* have been for years and years. While AMD has gone up hugely, I'm not selling as you may suggest by answering yes. Why? because I believe they have finally turn the corner and are on the cusp of even growing much larger gaining market share and profits. So, I'm waiting later this year to see what the huge Meta MI 450 possible $100 billion data contract deal will bring in for AMD. And it looks very good going forward at this point.

xmodifier

The MI450 isnt even released yet... got more to go

gamersEmpire

You do realize AMD produces high end gpus and cpus cheaply with 45%+ gross margains, a respectable and visionairy CEO that brought the company from nothing to a top 10 company, with mutiple deals with the top leading companies in the world right now with demands far exceeding their capabilities, competing with the #1 company in the world right now, and a huge catalyst of the MI450 being released in 2026, and a pristine balance sheet? INTC is losing money on their FCF i dont know how stupid you have to be to compare these two companies but stay regarded

thesmd1

Already sold my swing shares (too early). This is a core position. Need to see this through the MI450 ramp in 2H.

Happy-Control5922

The multiple compression math is right and almost nobody prices it correctly. With 2026 EPS at $6.85 and 2027 at $11+, the forward P/E is collapsing 47x to 27x at current prices without any rerate. The actual risk to the thesis is hyperscaler capex/revenue dynamics. If META or MSFT capex guidance softens in 2026 Q2 or Q3, MI300/MI400 demand misses and the EPS path bends. $1000 is a long shot but $500-600 by mid-2027 is reasonable if data center keeps tracking Q1's $5.8B

Longjumping_Steak724

I'm trimming a bit but my whole thesis is on their MI400 series coming out which hasn't happened yet... This CPU shortage is icing on the cake.

Longjumping_Steak724

I was up a ton going into earnings. My leaps are long term options so theta would not have hurt me. I would have been down a couple/few hundred k but my whole plan when buying this was around the MI400/500 series that is being released in Q3 of this year. Then the CPU shortage happened. I think it would have recovered by next quarter (look at last earnings to now).

DubiousChemistry

I'm not certain of that timeline but it seems likely. I believe the market hasn't yet priced in the MI450 etc. impact.

KinseyH

1. Alabama RW religious leader - Ralph Lee Aaron - [child molesting](http://www.wsfa.com/story/11942700/covington-county-pastor-agrees-to-consecutive-life-terms-in-prison/)[ https://www.wsfa.com/story/11942700/covington-county-pastor-agrees-to-consecutive-life-terms-in-prison/](https://www.wsfa.com/story/11942700/covington-county-pastor-agrees-to-consecutive-life-terms-in-prison/) 2. Anti-gay preacher and conservative political activist Ken Adkins was sentenced to life for [molesting children.](https://www.jacksonville.com/news/crime/2016-08-26/story/controversial-pastor-and-activist-kenneth-adkins-charged-child) Will be eligible for parole in 35 years[ https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/crime/2016/08/26/controversial-pastor-and-activist-kenneth-adkins-charged-child/15722273007/](https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/crime/2016/08/26/controversial-pastor-and-activist-kenneth-adkins-charged-child/15722273007/) 3. Gerald ‘Ajax’ Ackerman, Port Huron MI Mayor was convicted of [sexual contact with minors, three girls, 8, 11, and 12 years old](https://www.thetimesherald.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/11/08/rise-and-fall-gerald-ajax-ackerman/2529262001/) [https://www.thetimesherald.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/11/08/rise-and-fall-gerald-ajax-ackerman/2529262001/](https://www.thetimesherald.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/11/08/rise-and-fall-gerald-ajax-ackerman/2529262001/) 4. Republican Mayor Tom Adams distributing child pornography  [ https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2009-07-03-0907010521-story.html](https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-2009-07-03-0907010521-story.html) 5. Steve Aiken(82), campaign manager for a Republican candidate for Congress in Arizona, former Quakertown, PA, police officer, and self-proclaimed reverend, was [convicted of having sex with two underage girls](https://www.mcall.com/news/mc-xpm-1996-06-07-3088147-story.html)  [https://www.mcall.com/1996/06/07/aikens-trial-on-indecent-assault-opens-the-former-police-officer-and-youth-counselor-is-accused-of-having-sex-with-a-17-year-old-girl/](https://www.mcall.com/1996/06/07/aikens-trial-on-indecent-assault-opens-the-former-police-officer-and-youth-counselor-is-accused-of-having-sex-with-a-17-year-old-girl/) 6. Republican Speaker of the House in Puerto Rico Edison Misla Aldarondo was sentenced to 10 years in prison for [raping his daughter between the ages of 9 and 17. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edison\_Misla\_Aldarondo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edison_Misla_Aldarondo) 7. Conservative Evangelical pastor Mack Charles Andrews raped and tortured multiple children, [including one girl he raped on her father’s grave when she was nine.](https://www.al.com/news/2015/09/alabama_pastor_sex_abuse.html) .[ https://www.al.com/news/2015/09/alabama\_pastor\_sex\_abuse.html](https://www.al.com/news/2015/09/alabama_pastor_sex_abuse.html) 8. Republican activist Randal David Ankeney,[ attempted child sexual assault](https://www.denverpost.com/2006/10/05/ex-activist-faces-new-child-sex-assault-counts/) [https://www.denverpost.com/2006/10/05/ex-activist-faces-new-child-sex-assault-counts/](https://www.denverpost.com/2006/10/05/ex-activist-faces-new-child-sex-assault-counts/)  9. Jeffrey Armstong, Former Mayor of Rockford, OH, and GOP Central Committee rep, child pornograph  [https://dailystandard.com/archive/2021-02-25/stories/42406/former-rockford-mayor-charged](https://dailystandard.com/archive/2021-02-25/stories/42406/former-rockford-mayor-charged) (pleaded guilty[ ](https://dailystandard.com/archive/2021-11-20/stories/44252/armstrong-pleads-guilty-to-child-porn-charge) 10. Republican prosecutor John David Roy Atchison arrested on charges of f[lying across the country to try and have sex with a five-year-old girl](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/06/us/06suicide.html). Committed suicide. [ https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/06/us/06suicide.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/06/us/06suicide.html)

DubiousChemistry

Absolutely! Market still hasn't priced in future datacenter gains from their MI450 and later series chips. The pump alongside Intel seems to be from CPUs gaining relevance in AI and overall market repositioning into semis. AMD could dump on earnings but I'm not worried over the next 6-12 months. Macro stuff like a Fed rate hike would get me out of the position, though.

SirLoveMore

Traditionally AMD loves to dump after earrings. I don’t think you’ll see a positive bounce from earrings till next quarter when MI450 is priced in. But who knows i eat crayons

DubiousChemistry

Last year, one day I saw ridiculous accumulation in AMD relative to the rest of the market and I took a shot at it. It simply never came back to my cost basis. That's how most of my big winning trades work. It's unorthodox but it just sort of works out for me. If it ain't broke... For the long-term hold through the 190-270 whipsaws, there was a believable bull thesis that the market hadn't correctly valued AMD's 2026 MI-series chips and it was a matter of time before it broke through. Lisa Su is also a phenomenal CEO.

BrocoLeeOnReddit

By the way: The democratically elected Iranian government was overthrown by MI6 and CIA in 1953 for nationalizing its oil industry. Just in case you wonder how we got here.

Plus_Cauliflower2510

Yeah hindsight's always 20/20 though. At least there's still room for growth if they execute well on MI300 and the memory cycle plays out.

Kagemand

Not better, just equal. And that is AMD MI450 this fall. While AMD is still 1/10 market cap of NVIDIA.

Shawnwith146

About six or seven years ago there was a guy from West Palm Beach that did things like this and made enough money to buy an island, a ranch in New Mexico, and I believe he had the largest private residence in Manhattan (although someone gave that to him for free). He also had a private plane. Anyway’s, he would make these crazy calls on Microsoft and Bill Gates was so impressed that they actually became best friends, confidants, and business partners. If you lose money, just invite Bill Gated over to your house after you install secret camera and microphone, so Mossad / CIA / Russia / MI6 and every other intelligence agency, cartel, and criminal mafia will pay you to do it again next quarter.

Infinity_ashim

Hi, I'm Ashim from MarketCrunch AI. I'd be cautious about leaning too heavily on analyst upgrades for $[INTC](https://marketcrunch.ai/stocks/forecast-price-target/INTC) right now; the average target at $74 is still well below the higher-end calls, suggesting a wide dispersion in conviction. The real test for Intel's AI story isn't just Q1 numbers, but whether they can sustain market share gains against AMD's MI300X and Nvidia's H100/B200 in the data center, especially as capex cycles mature. A pullback to the 0.38 Fib level around $69.30 might be a technical entry, but the fundamental risk is that the current AI momentum is already priced in, and any deceleration in guidance could quickly invalidate that support.

verywidebutthole

MI450 will be adopted widely and CPUs are so sold out Intel just had a garage sale of outdated tech. There's so much potential upside for AMD. I think we're going to watch Nvidia growth slow down in the coming months and AMD growth accelerate wildly.

Joe_Sisyphus

Because AI, and because they're eating Intel's lunch on desktop and server processors. "The tech industry is also checking out AMD’s new MI450 chip, which sits at the center of the Helios platform. This chip uses a special kind of high-speed memory to move data at a blistering 20TB/s. Because of this speed, the system can handle AI models that are 50% larger than earlier versions without breaking a sweat. This is a massive win for the new Agentic AI programs that big cloud companies are currently building."

benny-trill

MU and Sandisk are trading high because there is a shortage of high bandwidth memory due to AI demand all their capacity for 2026 has been bought and committed to and they aren't making more which is pushing up the prices organically for their HBM which is why you can go on Amazon and look up RAM for your PC and see that it is 2-3x the price it used be. AMD is trading high because they are seeing heavy adoption of their MI350 series from hyperscalers like Meta, Oracle, Microsoft and OpenAI. This proved they are at least in the competitive space with Nvidia and now this summer they are releasing the MI450 which is expected to have much more adoption across the hyperscalers and neocloud companies. And now there looks to be a CPU shortage coming which we learned from Intel earnings today which is why INTC and AMD are pumping after hours today. All of this is actual changes in the landscape as AI infrastructure is being built out and these companies are actively benefitting and we see this in their quarterly earnings and news / billion dollar deal announcements. It's not about being smarter it's about seeing trends occur and investing on those trends ahead of time if you catch. If you are asking reddit then the trend has passed and also half or more of these people might not even be investing any of their money and just telling you what to do with their money and no research, just their opinions.

Sa1amandr4

yep, we just touched 330, if this Monday someone had told me that AMD would've been at 300 by eow I'd have laughed, yet here we are... Lisa better prepare some crazy stuff for the earnings call lmao I'm almost serious when I say that, if the MI450 turns out to be ~~decent~~ good, we may even see $500 by EOY. Crazy

LividAnt9602

Well you have the OpenAI + META partnership and the launch of MI450

UmbertoUnity

The stock is up big because AMD will see massive revenue growth later this year with their MI400 series GPUs. CPU demand is also spiking.

UmbertoUnity

They're on the cusp of massive revenue and earnings growth from their MI400 series GPUs and CPU demand is also skyrocketing again.

Schwimmbo

You know nothing, VM. The catalyst is MI450 hype!

Schwimmbo

It's MI450 hype. And probably leaked info about another mega deal such as the ones with Meta and OpenAI.

morbie5

> and don’t even allow a free carryon lol? TBF their prices are low AF even with the carry on gimmicks. I fly from MI to NC a lot and Delta is like $400 for a one way ticket. Spirit and Frontier can be under $100 Not that Trump is doing this to help me tho

Outrageous_Koala5381

Given they're signing 5 year deals, what's the certainty that the earnings fall? You seen how much memory is used in a Vera rubin chip / a MI 450? It's 9x what it was in the previous generation. That memory ain't coming on stream immediately. It means memory is holding up the deployment. It means the sales will carry on a few years longer at this high price, or higher, and higher demand. And the commitments for more AI is there for years and years.

veryveryuniquename5

YEAH NOW U CAN AFFORD MI450x ENJOY BRO LMAO 🤌

thesmd1

Not selling this batch. Expecting $300+ as MI450 ramps in 2H.

Beret888

Theres no secret that will make any meaningful difference whether I'm right or wrong... If you want to talk derivatives then that's a DM material discussion since they for the most part are not well understood by retail. CAPREIT which is , CAR.UN.TO. Minto MI.UN.TO are amongst the 2 best IMO.... Monthly distributions, and exceedingly well run companies. I also like Allied Properties AP.UN.TO but significantly less now that they sold all their commercial data centers at about the absolute bottom of the market. But they have good comm and rezi exposure still but they will be punished for years for giving up the trifecta at depressed prices at the bottom..... Still a well run company that sold assets they didn't understand for prices they made money on but they lacked the strategic vision outside of their core market that would have made shareholders a mint as well as Every (CEO) who lost tens of millions for not selling assets at the correct time.

Kaliasluke

If you don’t actually have access to material non-public information at the time and you report it yourself and I doubt you will face any disciplinary action more severe than having to repeat your online training module on insider dealing. Most likely it’ll be “thanks for telling us, remember to get pre-clearance next time”. Source: I’ve sat on the operational risk committee of a bank, where MI on PSI control breaches got reported - such incidents are fairly common

Yul_B_Alwright

MI is on the list but has data centers being built...

grogi81

Directly - no. Indirectly - absolutely. Iran was the biggest ally of the west, CIA was running the whole middle east operations out of Teheran... However, the oil business didn't like the reforms of Mossadegh. CIA + MI6 did stage a coup in Iran in 1953 and introduced a brutal regime of the shah. The revolution was a direct response to absolutely brutal regime.

DISAPPOINTING_FAIRY

idk exactly why but in the Final Four tonight Michigan represents bears and Arizona represents bulls. Like on one side is MI which is like the poster child for industrial decay and economic downturn. Then on the other is the state where we built Phoenix which is basically bull philosophy encapsulated in city form. Yes, of course we put 5 million people in the middle of the desert. No, there is nothing fun to do here. Who cares where we'll get drinking water in 20 years? Winner of that game will determine market direction on Monday. You read it here first.

Nice-Truck8806

literally 0 people who shot both an m16 and an m4 would say ANYTHING positive about the m16. pro dick eater here gonna say "le brown people" like a fuckin MI6 ghoul

Ok_Bodybuilder800

And who would sit passively at home and allow him to take office again? And would love to see what the community of Dearborn, MI thinks about all this.

modder9

It was a CIA/MI6 joint operation to coup their prime minister and reinstall the Shah* But still, attacking their Muslim neighbors(and the US bases they host) was purely to cause financial pain (not that they all get along great anyway). I wouldn’t insult their IQ, the regime has tons of leadership with PhDs and they are a highly educated people(more-so before the revolution, but they aren’t animals). I sold 127 SPY shares into the AH pump today to exit at a minuscule profit, but I want to have cash for tomorrow because I think we’re gonna see 630.

neatoburrito

MI

NotTooShahby

Solution described here: >First, Congress should pass the bipartisan H.R. 3289 — Fiscal Commission Act, sponsored by Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI), Rep. Scott Peters (D-CA), and 41 co-sponsors. Such a commission would force a public reckoning with the facts, the trade-offs, and the hard choices that restoring fiscal health requires. Second, Congress should call an Article V Convention limited to proposing a fiscal responsibility amendment to the U.S. Constitution. H.Con.Res. 15, sponsored by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX), would do exactly that. Modeled on Switzerland’s Debt Brake, such an amendment would mandate a balanced budget over the business cycle and prohibit federal spending from growing faster than the U.S. economy. These two bills represent the most credible path forward — if Congress has the will to act.

torokunai

actually the NVN model is what I was talking about, our boots vs. their materiel and MI. Both Communist China and Moscow's material and technical support kept the Hanoi regime going toe-to-toe with us 1965-72. When SA-7s started appearing in II and III Corps in '72, we knew our gooses were cooked.

Budget-Ocelots

MI6. The knew about the RU election rigging for Trump before the US did.

NotAHost

I bought MI 420c 1dte @9.50AM… We’ll see if it survives. Kinda wish I bought more but already exposed at 60% of my port being MU.

No-Entrepreneur-5606

They had student protests relating to workers rights, corruption transparency, anti-immigration sentiments, and economic stresses related to inflation and limited job prospects for graduates due to challenges diversifying its economy at a time when China was relatively weak. These protests were triggered by the death of General Secretary Hu Yaobang, the leader of the CCP at the time of his death. These student protests escalated into conflicts with military riot control police. Contrary to popular belief those military police weren't there to gun down protestors or run them down in tanks and the famous photograph associated with that belief shows a tank that is clearly stopped because that wasn't their reason for being there, and for most of the duration of the month and half of protests their primary task outwardly at least were crowd control. The protests reportedly drew approximately 1 million people over the space of the month and a half of protesting but on the day the clashes started happening the number of protestors there was in the ballpark of 50000 to 100000, The clashes resulted in deaths including both military police and protestors in reported ranges from 300 to 2700 death, and approximately 5000 police injured and 2000 protestors injured. There was also a substantial amount of looting, arson and assault of business owners and their staff. It's also commonly acknowledge that the US was stoking the flames of unrest to undermine the CCP as it tended to do (and continues to do) in communist and socialist countries. Overtly through US owned radio stations in China like 'Voice of America', Western NGOs like the New York based 'Chinese Alliance for Democracy' who directly funded the student protests, as well the through intelligence networking efforts to infiltrate and influence/undermine government institutions, particularly liaisons between the CIA and MI6 with Chinese institutions including the Economic Restructuring Commission (since merged into the National Development and Reform Commission in 2003) who had been conducting such operations as early as 1980. That's essentially what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Few_Philosopher7647

Can someone look at the stock MI and tell me exactly what’s going on. I’m trying to read and understand it and I’m at work. Are they’re selling their shares? If so why would that be a bad thing. Well besides the company needing money

devil_dawg_1986

Wow. MI took a serious nosedive