PPA

ThatOneRedditBro

Expanding operations to iraq and data center push. In June, Chevron signed a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Microsoft. This initiative—known as Project Kilby—is a $7 billion, 2.67-gigawatt natural gas co-generation facility in West Texas. Instead of purchasing computational hardware or digital infrastructure, Chevron is leveraging its Permian Basin gas assets to sell dedicated electricity directly to these data centers, bypassing the public power grid.

PoeGar

176MW isn’t that much for a PPA. Look at the Dwayne Arnold or Crane Energy restarts or Riverbend’s upcoming PPA. Those are big MW deals

HoneyBadger552

xlu holding steady. all hail long term PPA's

PuzzleheadedCamel323

Data center operator (offtaker) will sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a utility company, guaranteeing an electricity supply contract for 25 years. The price of the PPA will be negotiated according to a complex formula - to keep it simple it will be a volatile rate with caps and floors. The utility company is responsible to secure a gas supply agreement and negotiate the terms with the gas supplier. This agreement is negotiated and the pipeline is built before the construction of the power plant. The agreement with the offtaker serves as a "collateral".  The pipeline is built according to the contracted volume and it is connected either to the national gas supply network or directly to a liquified gas import terminal. Natural gas supply can be a constraint if the country imports natural gas (e.g. Japan, Korea). However, keep in mind that threatening international energy supply is a serious matter that can lead to military interventions.

Vindaloo6363

There are ETFs without all the Tech that are still growth like PPA, VCR and XLI but tech is where the future growth will be. PPA has outperformed the S&P by a lot but also has high costs. VCR and XLI significantly trail the S&P.

WrexyWrex

i already bought pltr friday you can just get into PPA or any names listed in that etf

waynecheriee

bought TLN in Q1 2024 around $85, just post-bankruptcy emergence. nobody on Wall Street covered it, no major sell-side rating. it was treated as a leftover restructuring play. what made me look: their Susquehanna Steam Electric Station is 2.5 GW of nuclear sitting in PJM, the largest data center corridor in the US. they had also just sold a 960 MW direct-to-Amazon power deal at the Cumulus campus that was barely covered outside trade press. that one transaction told me the entire valuation framework was wrong. they weren't a utility, they were an ai infrastructure landlord. the market wasn't wrong because it was lazy. it was wrong because utility analysts didn't speak ai, and ai analysts didn't read NRC license documents. the gap was institutional, not informational. the conviction wasn't price-based, it was structural: 40-year fuel cycle, Tier 1 hyperscaler counterparty, in the most demand-constrained grid in America. no other listed pure-play had that combination. no price target, no earnings model. the thesis was a single question: when does the first major hyperscaler PPA hit Susquehanna? everything else was noise. held through a \~30% drawdown in summer 2024 when FERC rejected the initial Amazon deal expansion. people panicked. but I kept reading FERC filings. the rejection was procedural, not substantive. they wanted the deal restructured, not killed. by March 2025 Amazon expanded it to 1,920 MW. how to separate early from a falling knife: 1. is there a structural reason the market hasn't priced it, or is it just down because down? 2. can you point to a specific document (filing, contract, license) supporting the thesis? 3. if the stock fell another 40%, would your thesis still be intact? if you can't answer all three with sources, you're catching a knife. TLN went from $85 to $400+. sold half at $250, kept the rest. boring utility play, right?

Geddagod

>Though “if” we are including Intel is a bit interesting. I think TSMC has a \~1 node lead, and Samsung and Intel are in a clear second tier, based on not just node tech but also volume/external customers. >Which has features even TSMC has had to delay from their current 2nm Yes, but what's the point of features if it doesn't result in better PPA? Samsung, for example, shipped GAAFET even earlier than Intel and much earlier than TSMC, but their GAAFET chips in comparison to similar IP on TSMC (exynos vs mediatek/xiaomi ARM cores) looks significantly worse. It's a cool technical achievement but in terms of attracting customers... >which has still yet to have been built in volume though I imagine shortly it will based on their roadmap. Looks like the first BSPD product from TSMC isn't coming till 2028 with Feynman. In fact, the A16 BSPD seems to be deeply unpopular, with Nvidia being the only customer rumored so far, and not appearing till much later then when TSMC claims the node will be ready.

RobtasticRob

Defensive stocks are always popular.  PPA has smashed the S/P 500 over the past 25 years.

photowanderer

After the 1st million, the next one comes much faster; and soon enough, the portfolio would grow more per yr than my annual salary. But one thing I would tell myself is that to just keep it simple & boring and invest in sp500 and skip the individual stocks (maybe some mix of QQQM if wanting to be aggressive). Early on, I invested some in individual stocks as well as thematic funds/etfs. But after 5 yrs, when averaging everything together, it underperforms the index. Of course, we're all tempted by big hitters. And for every big hit, there are multiple misses that just drag down the average. For me, when I first started out 6-7yrs ago, I did a mix of sp500/VGT and around 5yrs ago, added Intel, SMH, BMY, LMT, RTX, PPA, XAR. SMH turned out to be a good one, it more than 4x since then. But the rest of them was just lagging. I bought Intel 5 yrs ago at around 50s, and held through the red for 5 yrs, and only turned green very recently. I realized it a few yrs ago, and since then I just added new money to VOO/QQQM, while keeping the individual stocks so now those individual stocks are just about less than 5% of the portfolio. Might be interesting to have a small percentage for "fun" stocks, but should limit it. To win with individual stocks, need to: 1. pick the correct stock 2. have correct entry 3. have correct exit Considering those 3 and the tax consequences in taxable account, I feel like it's just not worth it. At the beginning, I also set some automatic weekly contribution to SP500 & International, but noticed that International was just dead money, so I stopped. But now I'm resuming my international contribution hoping for it to reach about 5-10% of my portfolio (it's around 2% right now).

const_in

The PPA model is genuinely strong for recurring revenue, but the $40M in stock comp against $81M revenue is a real red flag. That dilution rate matters more than the pipeline when you're evaluating whether the valuation is actually attractive. High equity grants early in a company's life can signal either justified retention needs or a warning that management is pricing in execution risk they're not disclosing. Watch the next few quarters to see if revenue growth keeps pace with the dilution. If you're tracking this alongside other growth positions, I use [Portfolio Manager](https://app.nc-np.com/?a=reddit&b=investing&c=tool_replacement&p=1sstl9x&lang=en) to catch when compensation burn outpaces revenue growth across the portfolio.

C130J_Darkstar

Your ChatGPT response is wrong, OKLO is targetting late 2027, almost a decade ahead and will have close to 20 reactors built as a part of the 1.2GW META campus in OH before ISMR even has one commercial product. There has never been a commercial ISMR reactor in history, compared to OKLO’s SFR which is proven by EBR-II lineage and over 500 reactors years of operation globally. Oklo has $2.6B cash and said that they are now at escape velocity- can finance NOAK builds through PPA project financing. You and your LLM are clueless.

PenelopeSkies53

ngl the PPA model is actually solid recurring revenue > one time sales

Winter_Demand_7721

Lols do you read the SEC fillings? Meta agreed to a payment framework but it’s definitely not a PPA and unless you have some insider knowledge there isn’t any recorded “wire” numbers attached to that. It’s amazing with how much confidence you say that a company with no revenue doesn’t need to worry about there billable or capex, OKLO is most definitely a start up lol Still no commercial NRC approval or DOE approval of their reactor, the fuel fab is a different story. Who said anything about the sidelines? I love OKLO puts 😘

TechniCruller

I had a client spin up a LNG power plant for a 100MW data center in Virginia in less than 18 months after the utility bailed on their PPA. Not a one off scenario, either.

iamNotLyingMan

Add some PPA SMH AVLV AVUV AVUS Should cover everything

WinstonSalemSmith

I don't even know if some of the other forever wars are actually over. It seems like Iraq is kicking off again, for example, and 🥭 wants Kandahar airbase back as well. Long all defense ETFs PPA EUAD + BA EADSY RNMBY

Lost_Grand3468

Pure retardium. AI demand is the biggest clean energy procurement catalyst in history. Companies driving the current datacenter build-out account for about half of all US corporate renewables procurement. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta aren't signing 20-year gas contracts — they're signing 20-25 year PPAs for nuclear, solar, wind, and geothermal because they need price certainty and decarbonization targets that their investors and customers demand. Google agreed to purchase power from Iowa's Duane Arnold nuclear plant for 25 years, and Microsoft signed a 20-year PPA with Constellation. These are the largest energy offtake agreements in history, and they're overwhelmingly for zero-carbon sources. Yes, gas is filling the near-term gap. But that's because it typically takes two to three years to design, permit, and build a datacenter, while development timelines for power generation resources often extend to five years or more. Gas is winning on speed, not economics. Renewable energy prices have dropped more than 90%, and in 2024, 91% of new renewable projects were cheaper than fossil alternatives.

resilient2

Defense is irresistible to me now: ITA PPA XAR DRNZ JEDI EUAD WDEF KRKNF AMPX

Outrageous-Echo-765

Data centres don't have a cable running to a power plant, they are connected to the grid. You get a PPA with a solar farm for cheap power, you get cheap power, the solar plant gets less risk because they have a sure buyer at a defined price. When there is sun, you buy that power. When there is no sun, you get the power from the grid, paying the regular ammount. This is not something new, PPAs have been a thing in industry for well over a decade now.

AsherMorrow32

Interesting perspective. The connection between AI demand and PPA pricing is definitely something worth watching over the next few quarters.

Nuggets-de-poulet

PPA and develop my fr sies port

Affectionate-Idea690

ITA,PPA XAR,,,ur right it is not a long print,,,,option gains would do well short term. those IPOs are **Not yet, but they are right on the doorstep.** most ETFs only rebalance their holdings every 3 or 6 months. You should expect to see CSG appear in European-focused defense ETFs like **DFNG (VanEck Defense)** and **WDEP (WisdomTree Europe Defence)** during their next scheduled updates (likely April or July 2026...Smart Shooter is smaller cap,,,their specialty would be intergrated in innovation or tech defense etfs like SHLD or ARXX

DeepSpaceAce

I invest in PPA, pretty much just that

jaajaajaa6

You might be a bit late and of it ends, the same stocks will go the other way. I have been long RTX, HII, NOC, Ktos, PPA , etc., and it may be time to sell some.

ISometimesCamp

Why we not skyrocketing? I need PPA 📈

Busy-Difficulty-4757

I’ve been DCA’ing the past year in SHLD, NATO, JEDI, and PPA.

resilient2

When I was first learning how to invest, I read "the D.C. boys all know about ITA and PPA." Now I've added to that certain drone tech companies.

music_is_gud

More like PPA calls here

johannschmidt

ITA and PPA have way lower ERs and higher returns since WAR's inception.

vakseen

I been into PPA and it’s been my best performer. War will never go away

WinstonSalemSmith

Yes oil and defense play. IXC PPA etc, not focusing on individual names.

Vindaloo6363

I only buy ETFs. PPA is about 5% of my portfolio. High expenses but the returns have been excellent.

Arrowhead_76

I was actually looking at maybe trimming a few shares and going for an EFT heard good things about VT but I'll look into ITA and PPA. I originally held some GEV but sadly dumped it too early, that's why i'm being extra cautious this time.

investinreddit-

Good trade. Those GE ones have been nice over the year $GEV $GE have been nice trades. Do what makes you feel comfortable OP. If you sell off, you can buy when it consolidates a bit. Another option. Maybe not a preferred one on Reddit, You could buy into an ETF that has a market weight in GE like $ITA and $PPA. I've been in $ITA like a long swing trade for about 10 months.

C130J_Darkstar

> no product That’s technically true for any SMR company in the U.S. at the current state, so not sure what your point is. Relative to others, Oklo is using a proven design- a replica that ran for three decades at the same INL site. > no service Not true, they have binding power purchase agreements with companies like META, which comes with prepayment. > no profit A lot of companies have no profit but see rapid stock appreciation due to market share growth. OKLO is expected to have revenue in early 2026 through radioisotope production, with PPA revenue coming from deployment in 2027. > it’s not a real company Umm what? They started Aurora construction back in September, recently was awarded the year long META RFP across all competitors, and are on track to VIPR criticality by the 7/4 RPP deadline. They are the definition of a first mover in the sector right now, I don’t understand what that sentiment is grounded in based on the facts.

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO, there was a -70% drawdown recently and there are significant catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months

C130J_Darkstar

Outdated for OKLO; they will have revenue from their radioisotope production at INL starting this quarter, as well as prepayment from PPA agreements. They also have vertical integration and will be constructing a $1.7B nuclear recycling facility on the fuel side. Given the current environment and policy tailwinds (ADVANCE Act, EOs & DOE RPP) the execution risk for OKLO’s EBR-II replica is overstated- they started construction last September and are making fast progress towards their 2027 targeted deployment. They also have a massive balance sheet of $2.5B after the latest raise and signaled that future builds via PPAs will be project finances (no further dilution.)

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO, there are a lot of catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months.

Queasy-Newspaper12

The fastest and cheapest way to get baseload power is gas turbines which already has a huge backlog and I believe the manufacturers are not willing to increase supply. Any other way requires time to buildout and renewables are great but they also will take time and don’t solve the issue of baseload. Bringing their own power instead of paying a premium to be connected to the grid there will definitely be a capex increase which they will likely try to avoid by bringing investors with deep pockets to build out the infrastructure project and sign a PPA with them to buy power from them. Hyper scalers will still be paying a premium but they won’t have the additional capex in their books. This is also dependent on how long the need to wait to be connected to the grid and if they can bring their own power would that make them jump the queue? One play could be investing in companies who will help with the infrastructure buildout, folks in the power infrastructure business $ETN $PWR, $MPWR. Regardless the power infrastructure will need to updated in USA regardless of data centers or not so even if the buildout from hyperscalers slow down these companies will still be extremely relevant from increased electrification and power needs growing.

C130J_Darkstar

It’s pre-revenue, yes. But that’s exactly why it’s discounted. Oklo expects initial radioisotope revenue and potential PPA prepayments in 1H 2026, which would end the “zero revenue” narrative. They also initiated site construction activities for Aurora in September 2025 as part of the path toward a targeted 2027 deployment. The bigger inflection is DOE awards and Reactor Pilot Program milestones over the next 12–24 months. For context, the average price target across the 13 most recent analyst reports is ~$126, which shows how wide the gap is between current trading levels and modeled execution scenarios. If milestones land, it rerates toward those models.

C130J_Darkstar

Oklo will have revenue in the next few months through initial radioisotope production and PPA prepayment. It’s ok, not everyone wants to invest in an early SpaceX.

jaajaajaa6

I have owned RTX NOC Ktos PPA Pltr HII since Russia went into Ukraine. Just added Boeing. Looking at VOYG and rcat but waiting for a better price. While Iran China Russia have the same ideology and sick people in charge, I am staying long. And add trumps $1B+ defense budget, which we need, is being supported by both sides. Biggest position by far is RTX

C130J_Darkstar

I wrote it. I just prefer clean structure. Fair take- $250 isn’t a base case. It’s a high-beta outcome if liquidity and PPA conversions stack quickly. If they don’t, it chops. That’s the asymmetry.

nitayrabi

MoneyTrail's take: If you’re looking for “hope” in OKLO/SMR: yeah, but it’s the boring kind. These aren’t “next quarter” stocks: they’re build-a-reactor, get-licensed, don’t-dilute-me-to-death stocks. OKLO straight up says in the 10‑K they haven’t built a plant and don’t have binding customer contracts yet (Equinix is an LOI, not a PPA), so the price is basically vibes + headlines until real contracts/reg milestones show up. SMR has the extra kick in the teeth of Fluor selling/overhang. So the play is either: treat it like a 3–7+ year moonshot and size it like a lottery ticket, or don’t play: because leverage + nuclear timelines = liquidation speedrun. [Can have a look here](https://moneytrail.ai/share/9eb02e79-1ea8-4b3f-8488-c574f348095e?source=share&channel=copy&utm_source=reddit) https://preview.redd.it/ru41xd5l4bkg1.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=a805927d93060643042349f1d487d7d9ce692d94

stockist420

Great work on the flight data! I track SEC filings pretty obsessively so let me fill in some of the blanks on what's already public: The Jan flights are explained: \- Jan 22 DAL→BFI — Same day Vistra filed an 8-K for a $2.25B senior secured notes offering ($1B at 4.70% due 2031 + $1.25B at 5.35% due 2036). Proceeds explicitly earmarked for the Cogentrix Energy acquisition. That's what they were doing in Seattle. \- Jan 28 + Feb 2 DAL→SJC (San Jose) — Vistra filed a Reg FD 8-K in January disclosing 20-year PPAs with Meta for 2,609 MW of carbon-free nuclear power from their PJM plants (Perry, Davis-Besse, Beaver Valley). Expected 8-10% incremental free cash flow accretion. San Jose trips were almost certainly Meta finalizing terms. \- Dec 31 8-K — Separately, they closed the acquisition of Q-Generation LLC (Hamilton Holdings II). Another deal entirely. What's NOT explained yet: The Feb 9 and Feb 12 flights to BFI (Seattle) and the continued IAD (Dulles) trips. Meta deal is already signed. Cogentrix is already funded. So who are they meeting in Seattle and DC in February? BFI = Amazon/Microsoft territory. IAD = AWS/Equinix/Google data center alley. At 3.5 strategic flights/week with earnings on Feb 26, the pattern matches what you're seeing. The Jan deals are confirmed in filings. The Feb activity is the one to watch. For anyone wanting to verify — all of this is in their 8-K filings on the SEC website. The Meta PPA disclosure is under Item 7.01 (Reg FD), and the Cogentrix financing is under Item 1.01.

averi_fox

Ah yes the pivoting gas truck company. I can post some AI too, just the raw data: ### Revenue Sources Breakdown * **Fuel Sales (Mobile Fueling): ~96.5%** — This is the primary driver, consisting of direct diesel/renewable deliveries to fleets. * **Service & Delivery Fees: < 3.5%** — Minor portion from logistics/delivery fees. * **Energy Infrastructure / Other: ~0%** — High-tech projects (microgrids/AI) are currently pre-revenue. ### Key Financial Health Highlights (Q3 2025, last one AFAIK) * **Negative Equity:** Shareholder deficit of roughly **-$17.3M** (Liabilities > Assets). Critical solvency risk. * **Cash Burn:** Tight liquidity with only **~$650k cash** reported vs. history of operating losses. * **Net Loss:** Reported **-$14.30M** for Q3 2025. ### Confirmed Contracts (Signed & Active) * **Sunnyside Nursing Center (Healthcare PPA)** * **Value:** ~$5.0M (Gross) | **Term:** 28 Years (so 5M **divided over** 28 years) * **Details:** Full "Tri-brid" microgrid (Solar + Battery + Gas). * **Topanga Terrace Rehab (Healthcare PPA)** * **Value:** ~$3.85M (Gross) | **Term:** 28 Years * **Details:** Similar healthcare resilience setup; recurring revenue. ### Strategic & Developing (Pipeline) * **NeutronX Defense Partnership** (MOU Phase) * **Details:** Designated "Lead Partner Contractor" for microgrids at military bases & airports. * **A123 Systems Collaboration** (Tech Partnership) * **Details:** Co-developing advanced battery storage specifically for NXXT's U.S. projects. * **Nassau County "Smart City" Project** (Speculative) * **Value:** Potential $100M+ (Long-term CapEx) * **Details:** Massive 200 MW microgrid intended to power future AI data centers (Pre-construction).

ThaliaFaye

Oh well sure my bad then, figure it out yourself. Maybe you should try buying ETFs cuz ITA, PPA, XAR seem to be doing fine 🤔

Caramel_Da_Cat

im heavily invested in PPA ETF and its done great for me. set it and forget it. Theres always a war somewhere and those companies will always make money even in a recession. If you want higher risk/reward, you can go individual stocks. imo, the blue chip stocks of defence dont make big moves and finding growth stocks might be complicated since cutting edge military tech isnt announced publicly.

Ok_Turnover_9819

Industrial miners hunt for stranded energy or sign PPA contracts directly with power plants. Their real cost is often 3–6 cents/kWh. And the network wont't die, it scales down to find equilibrium.

Shrekonomicon

An executed microgrid PPA means real progress. One more like that adds a lot of credibility.

kingallison

I always feel good on TDG, PNW, and PPA

Roygbiv-Turtle-98

and some people think solar stocks will roar again....not with copper being 3x more expensive than the good old days of PPA's being sold to dying 90 year old Asian dudes in Mira Mesa

mobiusu

i sold a bit to switch to SGOL. idk because i hold PPA , but i wouldn't say 180 to 175 as tanking, that's like 3% from ATH

Fantastic-Ice-1402

There are ETFs that cover this sector: SHLD NATO PPA JEDI Look them up and their portfolio composition.

Geddagod

>18A was announced to be ready around Q1 2025, the yield % will be worked for years to come. And TSMC N3 was announced to be ready in 2022. >Why do you think N3 is direct comparison for 18A? GAA, Backside power, etc. If node features were all that counted samsung 3nm would destroy TSMC N3 with gaafet lmao. 18A is a N3 competitor cuz that's the node it's similar to in PPA. Even Intel doesn't think it's competitive vs N2, hence why they are going back to external for NVL compute tiles.

Bill_Clintons_Desk5

The week of defense. PPA +10%

Constant_Counter_595

The revenue growth looks solid but those moving averages tell a different story - still trading way below both the 50 and 200 day which is kinda concerning. Healthcare energy contracts are usually pretty sticky though so that 28-year PPA could be the catalyst it needs to break through resistance

salty0waldo

Hard to say, but it feels like its going to be choppy for a while. Electricity rates are a hot topic among politicians now, and with midterms upcoming, Friday's note really wasn't great. PJM did issue a response Friday evening and it was fairly muted. Didn't really lean into the request. The price cap for the last PJM auction (2027/2028) was already hit, and most of VST's nuclear baseload has been contracted in either PPA or PJM capacity auction.

jaajaajaa6

They have run for the last 2-3 years as I have been long since Ukraine. There are 3 ETFs: ITA and PPA are mainly domestic plays and SHLD which has Palantir as a large holding and European defense contractors. RTX and KTOS have had great runs. But, I have not sold any shares. I also own KRKNS and VOYG which are plays on the next gen of defense. The other one own that I still think is a reasonable price is HII. While it has also had a run, they have been given many new contracts so the run is justified. They focus on the US navy. One other that is still cheap and a turnaround is Boeing. But they are only 50% defense. Good luck!

ClippingTetris

Check out $ITA, $PPA and $XAR too. They’re Aerospace & Defense ETFs, which with increased military spending broadly, is trending (and imo believe) is a sound place to put money also into. Some $QQQ never hurts too.

Lionabp1

PPA

C130J_Darkstar

Appreciate the good faith question. For me, the opportunity is less about “what Oklo is” and more about where the energy market is headed and how uniquely positioned they are to serve it. We are entering a structural power shortage driven by AI, data centers, reshoring, and electrification, where customers need firm, 24/7 power at scale. Intermittent renewables and gas alone cannot meet that demand reliably or politically, and large conventional nuclear is too slow and capital intensive. Oklo sits directly in that gap… small, modular, dispatchable nuclear that can be deployed faster, colocated with load, and priced competitively over long durations. What gives Oklo an edge is the combination of technology and business model. They are not trying to sell reactors one off- they are selling power under long term PPAs, often with prepayment which shifts nuclear from a capex heavy utility model to something closer to infrastructure as a service. That structure aligns extremely well with hyperscalers and industrial customers who want certainty on price, uptime, and carbon. In that sense, Oklo feels less like a traditional energy company and more like an early infrastructure disruptor, similar to how Tesla reframed autos, Uber reframed transportation, or SpaceX reframed launch economics by vertically integrating technology with a fundamentally different commercial model. I also think the timing matters. Policy, grid stress, and customer behavior are all converging at once. The Meta deal is not just validation, it is a signal that serious counterparties are willing to contract years ahead of operation, which dramatically de-risks financing and accelerates deployment. With $2B in cash, a 20GW pipeline, increasing likelihood of PPA conversion, and limited credible competition that can deliver firm power in this window, Oklo has a realistic path to becoming a platform company in advanced nuclear rather than a single asset science project. That asymmetry, high execution risk but potentially enormous market capture, is ultimately why I am heavily invested. Long answer, but hopefully that gives you a better sense of the opportunity.

Bill_Clintons_Desk5

Currently in PPA. Might add some good ole LMT on the side for the extra *juice*

C130J_Darkstar

Oklo, especially in the wake of the recent Meta deal. There are more catalysts coming: * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date

C130J_Darkstar

More deals like, aside from: * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date

jaajaajaa6

Along the same lines, l own VOYG Outside those lines, I own defense - RTX, HII, PPA Good luck !

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO. Large gap to average PT **before** Meta deal ($132) and ATH ($194), with some other catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * ⁠DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date

C130J_Darkstar

NuScale touts being “further along” because it has NRC design approval for its SMR modules, but design approval isn’t the same as actually building and operating reactors. Utilities still need separate construction and operating licenses for every site, which adds years and extra costs before any revenue flows. Most buyers aren’t excited about buying a decades-old Gen 3 design with a history of executional delays and cost overruns. Oklo, on the other hand, is pursuing a combined license route, which bundles design, construction, and operation into one review and can cut years off deployment timelines, and they already have real DOE site permits, pilot programs, and partnerships in motion. NuScale’s approach also keeps them selling designs to utilities rather than owning the assets, meaning slower, more capital-intensive rollouts. Oklo’s build-own-operate model is hyper scalable. Once the first plants are operational, they can replicate that model across multiple sites with PPA revenue streams from partners like Meta and data center operators, giving Oklo a structural scaling advantage most SMR plays don’t have.

metastar13

I've done well with SHLD and PPA.

Fantastic-Ice-1402

A few that I bought, although I hate speculation on negative issues. [NATO](https://themesetfs.com/etfs/nato) [SHLD](https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/shld/) [PPA](http://PPA is up +2.34% to $171.13. Check it out on Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PPA) [JEDI](https://www.defianceetfs.com/jedi/) Big EU defense companies include BAE Systems, Thales, Safran, Rheinmetall

C130J_Darkstar

Other OKLO catalysts that haven’t hit yet • ⁠DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • ⁠PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • ⁠Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • ⁠Continued RPP milestones • ⁠VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • ⁠OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper)

C130J_Darkstar

Other OKLO catalysts that haven’t hit yet: * DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date * OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper)

C130J_Darkstar

• ⁠⁠DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • ⁠PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • ⁠Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • ⁠Continued RPP milestones • ⁠VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • ⁠OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!

AirportMaterial5917

PPA

Psychological-Safe98

Honestly, this looks solid for a **set-and-forget approach**. You’re building a **diversified foundation** with VTI and SCHF while keeping a smaller allocation for higher-conviction bets like ARKX. A few things to consider: * **VTI (50%)** – This gives you broad exposure to the total U.S. market. It’s low-maintenance and will likely keep growing steadily over time. Perfect for the core of a long-term portfolio. * **SCHF (30%)** – International exposure is smart. Many people overlook global diversification, and SCHF helps balance U.S. market swings. * **PPA (10%)** – Sector ETFs like PPA can tilt your portfolio toward industries you believe will outperform. Just keep in mind sector performance can be volatile, so monitor long-term trends rather than daily fluctuations. * **ARKX (10%)** – I like that you’re putting a small amount into thematic or higher-risk growth plays. This is the part of your portfolio that can **outperform dramatically** if the theme takes off, but keeping it small helps manage overall risk. If you want to add **QQQM**, think of it as another growth tilt. You’d likely reduce VTI slightly to make room since VTI already has heavy tech exposure. Overall, your allocation balances **stability** (VTI + SCHF) with **opportunity** (PPA + ARKX). The key is **consistency** and avoiding constant tinkering. Set it, forget it, and let compounding do its work.

razehound

I expected some skepticism of ARCX, but why don't you like the PPA pick? Defense and industrials seem like pretty consistent performers

therealjerseytom

I'd skip the PPA and ARKX. Personally I bailed on all of my QQQ/M. If it's truly long term, like 20+ years, it could be as simple as VTI and SCHF.

GlitchBob432

A 28-year PPA definitely changes the lens

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * ⁠DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date * OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; • ⁠1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) • ⁠⁠DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • ⁠PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • ⁠Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • ⁠Continued RPP milestones • ⁠VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • ⁠OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!

C130J_Darkstar

$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * ⁠Plutonium (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date

C130J_Darkstar

Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * Plutonium (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to HALEU de-risk (today’s news) * Continued RPP milestones

C130J_Darkstar

Average PT is $132 across 18 analyst, highest is $175. There was recently a -65% drawdown from an ATH of $194, and now sector catalysts happening: DOE HALEU investment today, house nuclear deregulation hearing on Wednesday, and likely a Plutonium award and PPA conversion press releases from OKLO in the next few weeks. Pretty moronic IMO.

EconomicalJacket

I also have PPA, bought at the same time as ITA, and that one lags behind quite a bit

C130J_Darkstar

Average OKLO price target is $132 and ATH is $193… lots of milestones in the next month (RPP, Plutonium, PPA conversion) and sector deregulation.

C130J_Darkstar

Plutonium awards, PPA conversions, RPP milestones and huge deregulatory tailwinds following congressional hearings this week. (Below) https://www.eenews.net/articles/house-republicans-put-nuclear-energy-back-on-the-agenda/

NailsPDX717

PPA - Aerospace and Defense

superblobby

EUAD: European aerospace & defense + PPA: American defense. And throw in Israeli defense company Elbit Systems Gets you a wider range of exposure to the arms industry!

C130J_Darkstar

Don’t let the FUD brainwash you! Oklo is actively building and targeting criticality by mid-2026 and deployment in 2027. Separately, they are expecting first revenues in 1H 2026 through radioisotope work at INL and there’s a lot of catalysts ahead- PPA conversion, RPP milestones, Plutonium awards and sleeper partnerships (OpenAI).

Vindaloo6363

I have some XLI and PPA. Sectors that should benefit from AI without their futures being dependent on it.

my_wing

We all needed to understand that TSMC most important customer is Apple, there is no indication that iPhone is not releasing in Sep/Oct, it is around 6 months from HVM to product available, the most educated guess is that TSMC is more reasonable to be in HVM around Feb and not Dec, the website a number of sites out there is linking is an old website from TSMC which is a prior estimate. This is a trick, just treat you did not heard that TSMC had HVM N2, as there is no indication that Apple has shift its iPhone launch schedule. TSMC N2 is going to be in HVM in Feb 2026, there is the most reasonable educated guess. As mentioned FCF have a component of growth to be added. With Intel, AMD, Qualcomm leaving or planning to leave TSMC most advance node, i.e. the most profitable, there is no indication that TSMC can fill up the gap that left by Intel, remember the first N3 class customer is launch by Apple > Intel > nVidia / AMD > mediatek > Google, that No 2 spot make Intel a more important customer to TSMC then nVidia even Intel is making a loss. That is a "-" & "-", TSMC needed to find a customer that can replaced Intel and another one to maintain growth, that seems remote, nVidia is not going to fill that gap, they need a node that has D0 < 0.1 in order to manufacture a large die area chip, which Apple and Intel did not needed, therefore even N3B was in trouble, Apple's chip is smaller (as mobile vs server) and can absorb the loss. CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swam @ Intel. CC Wei need to go, he lead the company into a no High NA EUV company, did not even investigate other technology e.g. Dry Photo Resist, Pattern Sharpening. Quad Patterning, i.e. Good Luck, so instead of asking why I think Samsung can catch up, the better way to ask is why do you think other will slow down, while TSMC slow down. From this webpage the slide headed EUV Lithography Process and Roadmap challenge [https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle) You can clear see that what TEL is thinking and that is why TSMC N2 is still at 0.021 um\^2 which is the same as Intel 18A, both 18A and N2 is already hole pitch \~36nm (the TEL slide use 26nm) i.e. what TEL think is the limit for Low NA EUV, even with multiple patterning, if TSMC is using a sharper Dry Photo Resist then might push this limit, while Line Pitch can be push by Pattern Shaping (Applied Materials), because of these limit, from day 1 I am very skeptic that TSMC can scale > 1% density (SRAM) from N3E, (N3B in itself is a kinda of fail node not going to count). Whatever TSMC is say, I am not believing since that is the limit set by a number of industry research that I read. Intel will widen the PPA gap to TSMC and Samsung will close the Gap, that is going to happen, especially under CC Wei as their CEO.

Artistic-Western6342

Your tech concentration mirrors the Nifty Fifty era. Index-hugging hides structural rot. ITA’s exposure to Boeing’s industrial lag is a liability; PPA offers better depth. XLE works, but XOP provides the upstream leverage needed for a supply-constrained decade. JPM and UNH are the only logical anchors. Because history proves that in tightening cycles, quality and scale always outpace the index.

razehound

PPA for aero

uppinthepunx

Any reason why this over ITA or PPA?

C130J_Darkstar

Oklo, ridiculous amount of FUD… they will be a mega cap in 10-15 years, could see a 2.5-3X in 2026. Currently, there is ~60% upside to their avg analyst PT of $130 (11 since Oct) and 140% upside to ATH of $193. Catalysts in 2026 include plutonium awards, PPA conversion of their 18GW pipeline, reactor criticality date of 7/4 as a part of their 3 DOE RPP projects.

C130J_Darkstar

A chunk into OKLO, lots of catalysts in ‘26; criticality by 7/4, plutonium awards, PPA conversions, new sector penetration (industrials, defense, EV fleets, and space.) Currently there’s +60% upside to avg analyst PT of $130 (11 ratings since Oct) and +140% upside to ATH of $194. This will be a mega-cap in 10-15 years.

C130J_Darkstar

From Zach’s lol, the news platform doesn’t mean anything. That’s outdated information- leadership just announced that they have 220+ employees and 18GW in pipeline, or ~240 75MW Auroras. Not true on SFRs, their Aurora is literally a scaled replica of EBR-II, which was a SFR than ran for thirty years continuously (1964-1994) in Idaho, it’s proven and safe tech. Leadership just signaled that with the $2B there will be non need to raise more capital again, since the scaling funding after FOAK will come from project finance debt via PPA agreements. Those AI summaries from MF and Zach’s that are default posted by Nasdaq or Yahoo are usually outdated or incorrect bs.

tripstermcgee808

A lot of people look at them as a legacy laggard, but look at their pipeline, backlog, safe harbored backlog secured, debt reduction, and being the largest corporate PPA partner. Now doing data center shell build outs. They have more site control of land with interconnection build out than anyone. What needs power? Data centers. Makes sense they are shifting from just building out solar to offering land, power, interconnection to corporate partners. Shovel ready!

FLautoflower

Long term PPA is way more bullish that 200% rev increase. Simply because they are scalable