PPA
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
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I have four promising mining penny stocks in my portfolio that I am hoping will succeed.
Stocks which Im bullish for 2023 ( Market Analysis )
$RIOT, $JUPW, $VYNE, $MIGI, $MARA-- Stocks with news and on the move.
Nancy Pelosi’s son, who tagged along on Taiwan trip, is investor in Chinese tech firm (BRQS)
What would you suggest would be a good Aerospace & Defense ETF?
Did World War III just start? ✈🚢🚀Should we price war into the market? 📉
Fuck it. I'm calling it. Today, World War III started. ✈🚢🚀Now it'll get priced into the market 📉
$SIRC Bullish and update on whats going on.
A COVID-19 case for Lucira Health (LHDX), the maker of the only FDA authorized at-home single-use PCR COVID-19 test. Delta Variant, anyone?
Leidos(LDOS) or Zynga(ZNGA) long term hold?
Mentions
You might be a bit late and of it ends, the same stocks will go the other way. I have been long RTX, HII, NOC, Ktos, PPA , etc., and it may be time to sell some.
Why we not skyrocketing? I need PPA 📈
I’ve been DCA’ing the past year in SHLD, NATO, JEDI, and PPA.
When I was first learning how to invest, I read "the D.C. boys all know about ITA and PPA." Now I've added to that certain drone tech companies.
ITA and PPA have way lower ERs and higher returns since WAR's inception.
I been into PPA and it’s been my best performer. War will never go away
Yes oil and defense play. IXC PPA etc, not focusing on individual names.
I only buy ETFs. PPA is about 5% of my portfolio. High expenses but the returns have been excellent.
I was actually looking at maybe trimming a few shares and going for an EFT heard good things about VT but I'll look into ITA and PPA. I originally held some GEV but sadly dumped it too early, that's why i'm being extra cautious this time.
Good trade. Those GE ones have been nice over the year $GEV $GE have been nice trades. Do what makes you feel comfortable OP. If you sell off, you can buy when it consolidates a bit. Another option. Maybe not a preferred one on Reddit, You could buy into an ETF that has a market weight in GE like $ITA and $PPA. I've been in $ITA like a long swing trade for about 10 months.
> no product That’s technically true for any SMR company in the U.S. at the current state, so not sure what your point is. Relative to others, Oklo is using a proven design- a replica that ran for three decades at the same INL site. > no service Not true, they have binding power purchase agreements with companies like META, which comes with prepayment. > no profit A lot of companies have no profit but see rapid stock appreciation due to market share growth. OKLO is expected to have revenue in early 2026 through radioisotope production, with PPA revenue coming from deployment in 2027. > it’s not a real company Umm what? They started Aurora construction back in September, recently was awarded the year long META RFP across all competitors, and are on track to VIPR criticality by the 7/4 RPP deadline. They are the definition of a first mover in the sector right now, I don’t understand what that sentiment is grounded in based on the facts.
$OKLO, there was a -70% drawdown recently and there are significant catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months
Outdated for OKLO; they will have revenue from their radioisotope production at INL starting this quarter, as well as prepayment from PPA agreements. They also have vertical integration and will be constructing a $1.7B nuclear recycling facility on the fuel side. Given the current environment and policy tailwinds (ADVANCE Act, EOs & DOE RPP) the execution risk for OKLO’s EBR-II replica is overstated- they started construction last September and are making fast progress towards their 2027 targeted deployment. They also have a massive balance sheet of $2.5B after the latest raise and signaled that future builds via PPAs will be project finances (no further dilution.)
$OKLO, there are a lot of catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months.
The fastest and cheapest way to get baseload power is gas turbines which already has a huge backlog and I believe the manufacturers are not willing to increase supply. Any other way requires time to buildout and renewables are great but they also will take time and don’t solve the issue of baseload. Bringing their own power instead of paying a premium to be connected to the grid there will definitely be a capex increase which they will likely try to avoid by bringing investors with deep pockets to build out the infrastructure project and sign a PPA with them to buy power from them. Hyper scalers will still be paying a premium but they won’t have the additional capex in their books. This is also dependent on how long the need to wait to be connected to the grid and if they can bring their own power would that make them jump the queue? One play could be investing in companies who will help with the infrastructure buildout, folks in the power infrastructure business $ETN $PWR, $MPWR. Regardless the power infrastructure will need to updated in USA regardless of data centers or not so even if the buildout from hyperscalers slow down these companies will still be extremely relevant from increased electrification and power needs growing.
It’s pre-revenue, yes. But that’s exactly why it’s discounted. Oklo expects initial radioisotope revenue and potential PPA prepayments in 1H 2026, which would end the “zero revenue” narrative. They also initiated site construction activities for Aurora in September 2025 as part of the path toward a targeted 2027 deployment. The bigger inflection is DOE awards and Reactor Pilot Program milestones over the next 12–24 months. For context, the average price target across the 13 most recent analyst reports is ~$126, which shows how wide the gap is between current trading levels and modeled execution scenarios. If milestones land, it rerates toward those models.
Oklo will have revenue in the next few months through initial radioisotope production and PPA prepayment. It’s ok, not everyone wants to invest in an early SpaceX.
I have owned RTX NOC Ktos PPA Pltr HII since Russia went into Ukraine. Just added Boeing. Looking at VOYG and rcat but waiting for a better price. While Iran China Russia have the same ideology and sick people in charge, I am staying long. And add trumps $1B+ defense budget, which we need, is being supported by both sides. Biggest position by far is RTX
I wrote it. I just prefer clean structure. Fair take- $250 isn’t a base case. It’s a high-beta outcome if liquidity and PPA conversions stack quickly. If they don’t, it chops. That’s the asymmetry.
MoneyTrail's take: If you’re looking for “hope” in OKLO/SMR: yeah, but it’s the boring kind. These aren’t “next quarter” stocks: they’re build-a-reactor, get-licensed, don’t-dilute-me-to-death stocks. OKLO straight up says in the 10‑K they haven’t built a plant and don’t have binding customer contracts yet (Equinix is an LOI, not a PPA), so the price is basically vibes + headlines until real contracts/reg milestones show up. SMR has the extra kick in the teeth of Fluor selling/overhang. So the play is either: treat it like a 3–7+ year moonshot and size it like a lottery ticket, or don’t play: because leverage + nuclear timelines = liquidation speedrun. [Can have a look here](https://moneytrail.ai/share/9eb02e79-1ea8-4b3f-8488-c574f348095e?source=share&channel=copy&utm_source=reddit) https://preview.redd.it/ru41xd5l4bkg1.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=a805927d93060643042349f1d487d7d9ce692d94
Great work on the flight data! I track SEC filings pretty obsessively so let me fill in some of the blanks on what's already public: The Jan flights are explained: \- Jan 22 DAL→BFI — Same day Vistra filed an 8-K for a $2.25B senior secured notes offering ($1B at 4.70% due 2031 + $1.25B at 5.35% due 2036). Proceeds explicitly earmarked for the Cogentrix Energy acquisition. That's what they were doing in Seattle. \- Jan 28 + Feb 2 DAL→SJC (San Jose) — Vistra filed a Reg FD 8-K in January disclosing 20-year PPAs with Meta for 2,609 MW of carbon-free nuclear power from their PJM plants (Perry, Davis-Besse, Beaver Valley). Expected 8-10% incremental free cash flow accretion. San Jose trips were almost certainly Meta finalizing terms. \- Dec 31 8-K — Separately, they closed the acquisition of Q-Generation LLC (Hamilton Holdings II). Another deal entirely. What's NOT explained yet: The Feb 9 and Feb 12 flights to BFI (Seattle) and the continued IAD (Dulles) trips. Meta deal is already signed. Cogentrix is already funded. So who are they meeting in Seattle and DC in February? BFI = Amazon/Microsoft territory. IAD = AWS/Equinix/Google data center alley. At 3.5 strategic flights/week with earnings on Feb 26, the pattern matches what you're seeing. The Jan deals are confirmed in filings. The Feb activity is the one to watch. For anyone wanting to verify — all of this is in their 8-K filings on the SEC website. The Meta PPA disclosure is under Item 7.01 (Reg FD), and the Cogentrix financing is under Item 1.01.
Ah yes the pivoting gas truck company. I can post some AI too, just the raw data: ### Revenue Sources Breakdown * **Fuel Sales (Mobile Fueling): ~96.5%** — This is the primary driver, consisting of direct diesel/renewable deliveries to fleets. * **Service & Delivery Fees: < 3.5%** — Minor portion from logistics/delivery fees. * **Energy Infrastructure / Other: ~0%** — High-tech projects (microgrids/AI) are currently pre-revenue. ### Key Financial Health Highlights (Q3 2025, last one AFAIK) * **Negative Equity:** Shareholder deficit of roughly **-$17.3M** (Liabilities > Assets). Critical solvency risk. * **Cash Burn:** Tight liquidity with only **~$650k cash** reported vs. history of operating losses. * **Net Loss:** Reported **-$14.30M** for Q3 2025. ### Confirmed Contracts (Signed & Active) * **Sunnyside Nursing Center (Healthcare PPA)** * **Value:** ~$5.0M (Gross) | **Term:** 28 Years (so 5M **divided over** 28 years) * **Details:** Full "Tri-brid" microgrid (Solar + Battery + Gas). * **Topanga Terrace Rehab (Healthcare PPA)** * **Value:** ~$3.85M (Gross) | **Term:** 28 Years * **Details:** Similar healthcare resilience setup; recurring revenue. ### Strategic & Developing (Pipeline) * **NeutronX Defense Partnership** (MOU Phase) * **Details:** Designated "Lead Partner Contractor" for microgrids at military bases & airports. * **A123 Systems Collaboration** (Tech Partnership) * **Details:** Co-developing advanced battery storage specifically for NXXT's U.S. projects. * **Nassau County "Smart City" Project** (Speculative) * **Value:** Potential $100M+ (Long-term CapEx) * **Details:** Massive 200 MW microgrid intended to power future AI data centers (Pre-construction).
Oh well sure my bad then, figure it out yourself. Maybe you should try buying ETFs cuz ITA, PPA, XAR seem to be doing fine 🤔
im heavily invested in PPA ETF and its done great for me. set it and forget it. Theres always a war somewhere and those companies will always make money even in a recession. If you want higher risk/reward, you can go individual stocks. imo, the blue chip stocks of defence dont make big moves and finding growth stocks might be complicated since cutting edge military tech isnt announced publicly.
Industrial miners hunt for stranded energy or sign PPA contracts directly with power plants. Their real cost is often 3–6 cents/kWh. And the network wont't die, it scales down to find equilibrium.
An executed microgrid PPA means real progress. One more like that adds a lot of credibility.
I always feel good on TDG, PNW, and PPA
and some people think solar stocks will roar again....not with copper being 3x more expensive than the good old days of PPA's being sold to dying 90 year old Asian dudes in Mira Mesa
i sold a bit to switch to SGOL. idk because i hold PPA , but i wouldn't say 180 to 175 as tanking, that's like 3% from ATH
There are ETFs that cover this sector: SHLD NATO PPA JEDI Look them up and their portfolio composition.
>18A was announced to be ready around Q1 2025, the yield % will be worked for years to come. And TSMC N3 was announced to be ready in 2022. >Why do you think N3 is direct comparison for 18A? GAA, Backside power, etc. If node features were all that counted samsung 3nm would destroy TSMC N3 with gaafet lmao. 18A is a N3 competitor cuz that's the node it's similar to in PPA. Even Intel doesn't think it's competitive vs N2, hence why they are going back to external for NVL compute tiles.
The week of defense. PPA +10%
The revenue growth looks solid but those moving averages tell a different story - still trading way below both the 50 and 200 day which is kinda concerning. Healthcare energy contracts are usually pretty sticky though so that 28-year PPA could be the catalyst it needs to break through resistance
Hard to say, but it feels like its going to be choppy for a while. Electricity rates are a hot topic among politicians now, and with midterms upcoming, Friday's note really wasn't great. PJM did issue a response Friday evening and it was fairly muted. Didn't really lean into the request. The price cap for the last PJM auction (2027/2028) was already hit, and most of VST's nuclear baseload has been contracted in either PPA or PJM capacity auction.
They have run for the last 2-3 years as I have been long since Ukraine. There are 3 ETFs: ITA and PPA are mainly domestic plays and SHLD which has Palantir as a large holding and European defense contractors. RTX and KTOS have had great runs. But, I have not sold any shares. I also own KRKNS and VOYG which are plays on the next gen of defense. The other one own that I still think is a reasonable price is HII. While it has also had a run, they have been given many new contracts so the run is justified. They focus on the US navy. One other that is still cheap and a turnaround is Boeing. But they are only 50% defense. Good luck!
Check out $ITA, $PPA and $XAR too. They’re Aerospace & Defense ETFs, which with increased military spending broadly, is trending (and imo believe) is a sound place to put money also into. Some $QQQ never hurts too.
Appreciate the good faith question. For me, the opportunity is less about “what Oklo is” and more about where the energy market is headed and how uniquely positioned they are to serve it. We are entering a structural power shortage driven by AI, data centers, reshoring, and electrification, where customers need firm, 24/7 power at scale. Intermittent renewables and gas alone cannot meet that demand reliably or politically, and large conventional nuclear is too slow and capital intensive. Oklo sits directly in that gap… small, modular, dispatchable nuclear that can be deployed faster, colocated with load, and priced competitively over long durations. What gives Oklo an edge is the combination of technology and business model. They are not trying to sell reactors one off- they are selling power under long term PPAs, often with prepayment which shifts nuclear from a capex heavy utility model to something closer to infrastructure as a service. That structure aligns extremely well with hyperscalers and industrial customers who want certainty on price, uptime, and carbon. In that sense, Oklo feels less like a traditional energy company and more like an early infrastructure disruptor, similar to how Tesla reframed autos, Uber reframed transportation, or SpaceX reframed launch economics by vertically integrating technology with a fundamentally different commercial model. I also think the timing matters. Policy, grid stress, and customer behavior are all converging at once. The Meta deal is not just validation, it is a signal that serious counterparties are willing to contract years ahead of operation, which dramatically de-risks financing and accelerates deployment. With $2B in cash, a 20GW pipeline, increasing likelihood of PPA conversion, and limited credible competition that can deliver firm power in this window, Oklo has a realistic path to becoming a platform company in advanced nuclear rather than a single asset science project. That asymmetry, high execution risk but potentially enormous market capture, is ultimately why I am heavily invested. Long answer, but hopefully that gives you a better sense of the opportunity.
Currently in PPA. Might add some good ole LMT on the side for the extra *juice*
Oklo, especially in the wake of the recent Meta deal. There are more catalysts coming: * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date
More deals like, aside from: * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date
Along the same lines, l own VOYG Outside those lines, I own defense - RTX, HII, PPA Good luck !
$OKLO. Large gap to average PT **before** Meta deal ($132) and ATH ($194), with some other catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date
NuScale touts being “further along” because it has NRC design approval for its SMR modules, but design approval isn’t the same as actually building and operating reactors. Utilities still need separate construction and operating licenses for every site, which adds years and extra costs before any revenue flows. Most buyers aren’t excited about buying a decades-old Gen 3 design with a history of executional delays and cost overruns. Oklo, on the other hand, is pursuing a combined license route, which bundles design, construction, and operation into one review and can cut years off deployment timelines, and they already have real DOE site permits, pilot programs, and partnerships in motion. NuScale’s approach also keeps them selling designs to utilities rather than owning the assets, meaning slower, more capital-intensive rollouts. Oklo’s build-own-operate model is hyper scalable. Once the first plants are operational, they can replicate that model across multiple sites with PPA revenue streams from partners like Meta and data center operators, giving Oklo a structural scaling advantage most SMR plays don’t have.
I've done well with SHLD and PPA.
A few that I bought, although I hate speculation on negative issues. [NATO](https://themesetfs.com/etfs/nato) [SHLD](https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/shld/) [PPA](http://PPA is up +2.34% to $171.13. Check it out on Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PPA) [JEDI](https://www.defianceetfs.com/jedi/) Big EU defense companies include BAE Systems, Thales, Safran, Rheinmetall
Other OKLO catalysts that haven’t hit yet • DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • Continued RPP milestones • VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper)
Other OKLO catalysts that haven’t hit yet: * DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date * OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper)
• DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • Continued RPP milestones • VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!
Honestly, this looks solid for a **set-and-forget approach**. You’re building a **diversified foundation** with VTI and SCHF while keeping a smaller allocation for higher-conviction bets like ARKX. A few things to consider: * **VTI (50%)** – This gives you broad exposure to the total U.S. market. It’s low-maintenance and will likely keep growing steadily over time. Perfect for the core of a long-term portfolio. * **SCHF (30%)** – International exposure is smart. Many people overlook global diversification, and SCHF helps balance U.S. market swings. * **PPA (10%)** – Sector ETFs like PPA can tilt your portfolio toward industries you believe will outperform. Just keep in mind sector performance can be volatile, so monitor long-term trends rather than daily fluctuations. * **ARKX (10%)** – I like that you’re putting a small amount into thematic or higher-risk growth plays. This is the part of your portfolio that can **outperform dramatically** if the theme takes off, but keeping it small helps manage overall risk. If you want to add **QQQM**, think of it as another growth tilt. You’d likely reduce VTI slightly to make room since VTI already has heavy tech exposure. Overall, your allocation balances **stability** (VTI + SCHF) with **opportunity** (PPA + ARKX). The key is **consistency** and avoiding constant tinkering. Set it, forget it, and let compounding do its work.
I expected some skepticism of ARCX, but why don't you like the PPA pick? Defense and industrials seem like pretty consistent performers
I'd skip the PPA and ARKX. Personally I bailed on all of my QQQ/M. If it's truly long term, like 20+ years, it could be as simple as VTI and SCHF.
A 28-year PPA definitely changes the lens
$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date * OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!
$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; • 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) • DOE Plutonium awards (next two weeks likely) • PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news • Initial revenue in 1H from radioisotope production at INL • Continued RPP milestones • VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date • OpenAI partnership (giant sleeper) Good luck!
$OKLO. Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * Plutonium (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to recent HALEU de-risk news * Continued RPP milestones * VIPR reactor on track to reach criticality by RPP’s 7/4 goal date
Large gap to average PT ($132) and ATH ($194), with some catalysts coming in 1H 2026; * 1/7 Congressional Nuclear Hearing (sector dereg) * Plutonium (next two weeks likely) * PPA hard conversion (usually w/ prepayment against 18GW pipeline of 250+ reactors) more likely now due to HALEU de-risk (today’s news) * Continued RPP milestones
Average PT is $132 across 18 analyst, highest is $175. There was recently a -65% drawdown from an ATH of $194, and now sector catalysts happening: DOE HALEU investment today, house nuclear deregulation hearing on Wednesday, and likely a Plutonium award and PPA conversion press releases from OKLO in the next few weeks. Pretty moronic IMO.
I also have PPA, bought at the same time as ITA, and that one lags behind quite a bit
Average OKLO price target is $132 and ATH is $193… lots of milestones in the next month (RPP, Plutonium, PPA conversion) and sector deregulation.
Plutonium awards, PPA conversions, RPP milestones and huge deregulatory tailwinds following congressional hearings this week. (Below) https://www.eenews.net/articles/house-republicans-put-nuclear-energy-back-on-the-agenda/
EUAD: European aerospace & defense + PPA: American defense. And throw in Israeli defense company Elbit Systems Gets you a wider range of exposure to the arms industry!
Don’t let the FUD brainwash you! Oklo is actively building and targeting criticality by mid-2026 and deployment in 2027. Separately, they are expecting first revenues in 1H 2026 through radioisotope work at INL and there’s a lot of catalysts ahead- PPA conversion, RPP milestones, Plutonium awards and sleeper partnerships (OpenAI).
I have some XLI and PPA. Sectors that should benefit from AI without their futures being dependent on it.
We all needed to understand that TSMC most important customer is Apple, there is no indication that iPhone is not releasing in Sep/Oct, it is around 6 months from HVM to product available, the most educated guess is that TSMC is more reasonable to be in HVM around Feb and not Dec, the website a number of sites out there is linking is an old website from TSMC which is a prior estimate. This is a trick, just treat you did not heard that TSMC had HVM N2, as there is no indication that Apple has shift its iPhone launch schedule. TSMC N2 is going to be in HVM in Feb 2026, there is the most reasonable educated guess. As mentioned FCF have a component of growth to be added. With Intel, AMD, Qualcomm leaving or planning to leave TSMC most advance node, i.e. the most profitable, there is no indication that TSMC can fill up the gap that left by Intel, remember the first N3 class customer is launch by Apple > Intel > nVidia / AMD > mediatek > Google, that No 2 spot make Intel a more important customer to TSMC then nVidia even Intel is making a loss. That is a "-" & "-", TSMC needed to find a customer that can replaced Intel and another one to maintain growth, that seems remote, nVidia is not going to fill that gap, they need a node that has D0 < 0.1 in order to manufacture a large die area chip, which Apple and Intel did not needed, therefore even N3B was in trouble, Apple's chip is smaller (as mobile vs server) and can absorb the loss. CC Wei @ TSMC = Bob Swam @ Intel. CC Wei need to go, he lead the company into a no High NA EUV company, did not even investigate other technology e.g. Dry Photo Resist, Pattern Sharpening. Quad Patterning, i.e. Good Luck, so instead of asking why I think Samsung can catch up, the better way to ask is why do you think other will slow down, while TSMC slow down. From this webpage the slide headed EUV Lithography Process and Roadmap challenge [https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/lam-research-tokyo-electron-jsr-battle) You can clear see that what TEL is thinking and that is why TSMC N2 is still at 0.021 um\^2 which is the same as Intel 18A, both 18A and N2 is already hole pitch \~36nm (the TEL slide use 26nm) i.e. what TEL think is the limit for Low NA EUV, even with multiple patterning, if TSMC is using a sharper Dry Photo Resist then might push this limit, while Line Pitch can be push by Pattern Shaping (Applied Materials), because of these limit, from day 1 I am very skeptic that TSMC can scale > 1% density (SRAM) from N3E, (N3B in itself is a kinda of fail node not going to count). Whatever TSMC is say, I am not believing since that is the limit set by a number of industry research that I read. Intel will widen the PPA gap to TSMC and Samsung will close the Gap, that is going to happen, especially under CC Wei as their CEO.
Your tech concentration mirrors the Nifty Fifty era. Index-hugging hides structural rot. ITA’s exposure to Boeing’s industrial lag is a liability; PPA offers better depth. XLE works, but XOP provides the upstream leverage needed for a supply-constrained decade. JPM and UNH are the only logical anchors. Because history proves that in tightening cycles, quality and scale always outpace the index.
Any reason why this over ITA or PPA?
Oklo, ridiculous amount of FUD… they will be a mega cap in 10-15 years, could see a 2.5-3X in 2026. Currently, there is ~60% upside to their avg analyst PT of $130 (11 since Oct) and 140% upside to ATH of $193. Catalysts in 2026 include plutonium awards, PPA conversion of their 18GW pipeline, reactor criticality date of 7/4 as a part of their 3 DOE RPP projects.
A chunk into OKLO, lots of catalysts in ‘26; criticality by 7/4, plutonium awards, PPA conversions, new sector penetration (industrials, defense, EV fleets, and space.) Currently there’s +60% upside to avg analyst PT of $130 (11 ratings since Oct) and +140% upside to ATH of $194. This will be a mega-cap in 10-15 years.
From Zach’s lol, the news platform doesn’t mean anything. That’s outdated information- leadership just announced that they have 220+ employees and 18GW in pipeline, or ~240 75MW Auroras. Not true on SFRs, their Aurora is literally a scaled replica of EBR-II, which was a SFR than ran for thirty years continuously (1964-1994) in Idaho, it’s proven and safe tech. Leadership just signaled that with the $2B there will be non need to raise more capital again, since the scaling funding after FOAK will come from project finance debt via PPA agreements. Those AI summaries from MF and Zach’s that are default posted by Nasdaq or Yahoo are usually outdated or incorrect bs.
A lot of people look at them as a legacy laggard, but look at their pipeline, backlog, safe harbored backlog secured, debt reduction, and being the largest corporate PPA partner. Now doing data center shell build outs. They have more site control of land with interconnection build out than anyone. What needs power? Data centers. Makes sense they are shifting from just building out solar to offering land, power, interconnection to corporate partners. Shovel ready!
Long term PPA is way more bullish that 200% rev increase. Simply because they are scalable
Combine it with long term PPA's they have. I think that's better than transactional revenue
Pair it with long term PPA's they have. I think that's better than transactional revenue
The scary $8T headline misses the real driver: ROI lives or dies on utilization and power price, and phased builds with cheap electrons can still pencil. Depreciation is real, but fleets can roll from training to inference where perf/watt and software tricks keep costs falling (vLLM/TensorRT-LLM, quantization, KV cache, batching). The power choke point is tighter: 40–80 kW racks need liquid cooling, long-lead MV gear, and PPAs under ~$40/MWh with firm interconnect rights; anything else struggles. If you’re trading this, watch: GPU utilization (not just installed flops), $/token and p95 latency trends, AI revenue mix and backlog tied to shipped features, PPA pricing and substation timelines, and who can deliver dense capacity reliably (Vertiv/Eaton/Schneider and DC REITs with high-density retrofits like EQIX beat land-rich but power-poor sites). On the ground we’ve shipped with Azure OpenAI and Snowflake, and DreamFactory auto-generates secure REST APIs over legacy SQL so teams actually deploy and measure ROI fast.
Sorry I meant WWIII!!! In hindsight selling PPA was a mistake, but EUAD has also performed well. I don't hold XAR but it looks good. Same for RYCEY, it will surely do well as a civilian and military jet engine supplier. I don't believe the current round of Ukr/Rus talks will lead to peace, buying Rheinmetall on the dip and selling for a quick profit.
AES is my bet for general data center energy exposure. Largest tech/corporate PPA partner and acquisition rumors. Loaded on Jan 2026 $15 calls.
our framework raises valid concerns, particularly around the synthetic data question and grid infrastructure constraints. The energy bottleneck is real and often underappreciated in AI discussions. That said, I'd push back on one aspect of the analysis. The infrastructure investment thesis may hold even if the application layer disappoints. Consider the allocation pattern: when you look at how sophisticated institutional capital is positioning, they're not just buying model companies. They're building exposure to power generation, cooling infrastructure, and transmission capacity. The logic is straightforward. Even if AI applications underperform expectations, the data centers still need electricity. The chips still generate heat that needs removal. Whether those workloads produce revolutionary AI or just incremental improvements, the physical infrastructure captures value from the activity itself. Your point about the national grid is particularly interesting. The permitting and construction timelines for new power capacity extend years, sometimes decades. This creates a structural constraint that favors existing assets regardless of how the AI application thesis develops. Microsoft's 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island demonstrates this dynamic. They're not betting on next quarter's AI capabilities; they're locking in power supply for decades. The question isn't whether AI lives up to the hype. It's whether the infrastructure buildout creates value even in a disappointing scenario. Different investors will reach different conclusions, but the distinction matters for how you position around the thesis.
Defense has had a good tailwind for the last 2 years. Good ETFS include PPA or SHLD (this one owns Pltr). Or look at RTX for missiles, KTOS and AVAV for drones, HII for submarines. These are all targets of the current defense posture.
Nuclear is having its moment because data centers need baseload power that renewables can't consistently provide. When Microsoft signs a 20-year PPA with Constellation to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1 specifically for AI training, that's not a publicity stunt - that's infrastructure reality. The math is compelling: A single large language model training run can consume 1-2 megawatts continuously for months. You can't do that with solar/wind intermittency, and batteries at that scale are still economically prohibitive. Natural gas works but has carbon exposure risk. CEG and VST are the pure plays, but watch the regulatory environment. The NRC hasn't approved a new reactor design in years, so the real value is in companies that can restart existing units or extend licenses. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are promising but still 5-10 years from commercial deployment. Position sizing matters here - this is a long-term infrastructure thesis, not a quick trade.
Nope, COLA application submission soon, PPA conversions and/or more partnerships- lots of catalysts right now.
Defense companies report tomorrow - good or bad they have a strong tailwind. Returns for the last few years have been great. Don’t know if there will be tariff noise on materials, but it won’t matter over time. NATO buildout, drones, space , etc., will drive demand. Favorites are RTX, LMT, KTOS, and the ETFs SHLD and PPA. Good luck!
How would they get a binding PPA when they literally have zero idea (likely +/- 100%) how much the power will cost?
You’re doing this before all of the major catalysts ahead (COLA, Partnerships, PPA conversions) I would do the exact opposite.
Nice position! Since Feb I've been loading up on call options, which were incredible cheap earlier in the year. My investment thesis was pretty simple - a F500, $50B company with 70%+MSS in servers and clients that is one of only three companies that can make the world's most advanced semis and was ***trading at book value***. If that wasn't enough, the current "make-it-in-America" administration commissioned a study into the industry with the only logical conclusion being they are too strategic to fail. Once Trump called for LBT to be fired (his way of inviting him to the White House) it was obvious that they were going to make Intel Foundry successful. Intel doesn't need cash nearly as much as Foundry customers, which is the only thing that will save it. At $35-$40 it's topped out on cash infusion news and trading ***way*** past fundamentals, but news of any **Foundry** business will propel it upward proportionally to the amount of business announced, which will likely be relatively small because 18A is not external-customer friendly (likely the reason that the NVDA announcement is about ***co-developing*** chips) and 14A has to be proven before any big customer (AAPL, NVDA, AMD, AVGO, QCOM) bets their revenue streams on it. But certainly a number of smaller deals across both nodes would be big news. My options range from March 2026 through Dec 2027. Earlier this year those were relatively cheap; for example my 20-MAR-2026 15C was $6.76 (screenshot from ThinkOrSwim). https://preview.redd.it/r83ag6t8htsf1.jpeg?width=1714&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee1e7aadf0a69b223c3be26b739f70f38519fe41 Believing there will be Foundry announcements (driven behind closed doors by the current administration) I even bought some recently as you can see above such as the 19-MAR-2027 35C @ $11.15. I like the long dated options because 1) they qualify as capital gains after a year and 2) after Delta reaches 1 they simply grow linearly with the stock price which I expect only to go up over the next 2 years (in the case of DEC 2027 calls). So an investment of \~$138k this year netted about $300k. (The other semi investment this year was TSM @ $175). So the next significant jump will depend on news about Foundry customers, but keep in mind it's trading way past fundamentals as Foundry will continue significant billion dollar losses probably for ***at least 4 quarters***, and the 14A node is a big question mark regarding PPA and yields. There is also a real possibility Foundry could be spun-off (yes I know there are clauses regarding that in the government funding but nothing that prevents it, or it could be (gasp!) nationalized) which will likely be positive for the stock price. Therefore I think it's still a good stock or (long-dated) call option investment as there is tremendous hype around Intel as well as the administration backing it. Just my two cents.
They have first mover advantage and a hyper-scalable model given that they are owners & operators looking to sell power through PPA agreements vs designs only. [Here’s a link](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/o5IJbGnqlF) to my most recent DD, which also includes a link at the bottom to a deeper dive that I did 10 months ago.
ELT had communicated that PPA transition would begin very soon on the last call, it will likely happen incrementally. There’s a lot more excitement now that they have begun construction of the first Aurora site.
If you are open to a sector ETF, I am quite pleased with PPA (Invesco Aerospace and Defense).
I invested in PPA and I'm happy.
If you’re willing to compromise on morals PPA is the best investment until 2028 🤓☝️
Hello newbie trader person here I was wondering if it would be a good idea to invest into the aerospace like ETA XAR or PPA since they are all in high demand for the Ukraine Russian war. Is this a good observation for a new ass dude like me or what?
now covered by redchip. They've been on $ASPI and $UMAC before their breakouts. Tend to have a knack for potential multi baggers. https://www.redchip.com/stocks/NUAI/videos https://youtu.be/XBOk-so8GJk?si=Wj0VVJmm3vY03PTm Not f*cling selling a share until PPA. Now we're starting to get some attention finally.
This was just a small candy press release dropped in the big bowl. PPA will be the game changer.
Only thing that'll make it move with a vengeance is a signed, power purchase agreement with the hyperscaler. Then we have liftoff. Until then, before we have revenue certainty and know how much money they'll get on a multi year PPA, the Tutes and fomo-retail will watch from the sidelines. r/nuai will keep you updated.